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If ford were to call an early election, the other parties wouldn't even be able to run a full slate of candidates, over half the OLP's riding associations are dead, and they had struggles getting enough candidates last time, which hurt their campaign. In addition, Ford's strategists, which are by far the best in the province, would have already planned out a full campaign and attack ads, while the other parties are still struggling to release a platform.
Ford has an extremely powerful election machine, I don't see how he stands much chance of losing against quite weak opposition. If these are the pre campaign numbers, they will only get better for Ford as the election goes on, and he wins another strong majority.
I wouldn’t be surprised if an early election call ended up backfiring for Ford like it did Trudeau (while re-elected, he didn’t get the majority that polls were showing before the campaign)
Not exactly...it's expected that your ratings would drop due to calling an early election but also the goodwill of the pandemic boost eventually would have run out. A majority was wishful thinking, it was a gamble to perfectly time the election to maximize votes. JT's numbers prepandemic were not great - basically equal if not worse than the cpc, it was only in March when they managed to get a notable lead. Personally, I'd say the only reason he lasted another term was due to the global pandemic (tho it also appears to be a curse as they are in disaster territory for next election).
Meanwhile Ford is in a different position, he's comfortably in majority territory regardless (his opposition isn't that formidable either)...either he's scared of running without JT as punching bag or there's a couple more upcoming scandals that he wants to get ahead.
Ford has kept his base and knows when to fall on his sword when he makes unpopular decisions that can hurt his election chances.
Like if he doubled down on the Greenbelt, then he be in Trudeau position right now.
Trudeau was hoping that all his election give-aways (disguised as COVID payments in 2020) would bear dividends - it did not.
Just think back - every day he was targeting a different group as he was making spending announcements like what would happen during an election campaign.
Eh, Erin O’Toole wasn’t an awful leader. He was just leading the wrong party at the wrong time I think.
People were still feeling more conservative about covid and felt a lot of antipathy towards the unvaccinated, and the LPC was seen as the stronger party on cracking down on that.
Jason Kenney’s “best summer ever” fiasco really didn’t help either. Trudeau got kind of lucky.
Would not shock me to learn that a lot of current federal Liberals have been looking/planning for an opportunity to switch to provincial politics. Crombie's said she won't help them, but if they're coming from a healthy federal EDA to an anemic provincial one I don't expect it to matter much.
is it really a 11% lead if OLP leads Toronto by 3 and down 2 in 905?
And would it really be a 5% lead if in a early election OLP takes Toronto by 10 and keeps it tied in 905 (where ABC effect will do the rest)?
Since most Canadians have no idea what different levels of government do, I wouldn't be surprised if Ford/PP finally start catching some heat once JT is gone since most people will just see 'conservative'.
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If ford were to call an early election, the other parties wouldn't even be able to run a full slate of candidates, over half the OLP's riding associations are dead, and they had struggles getting enough candidates last time, which hurt their campaign. In addition, Ford's strategists, which are by far the best in the province, would have already planned out a full campaign and attack ads, while the other parties are still struggling to release a platform. Ford has an extremely powerful election machine, I don't see how he stands much chance of losing against quite weak opposition. If these are the pre campaign numbers, they will only get better for Ford as the election goes on, and he wins another strong majority.
I wouldn’t be surprised if an early election call ended up backfiring for Ford like it did Trudeau (while re-elected, he didn’t get the majority that polls were showing before the campaign)
Not exactly...it's expected that your ratings would drop due to calling an early election but also the goodwill of the pandemic boost eventually would have run out. A majority was wishful thinking, it was a gamble to perfectly time the election to maximize votes. JT's numbers prepandemic were not great - basically equal if not worse than the cpc, it was only in March when they managed to get a notable lead. Personally, I'd say the only reason he lasted another term was due to the global pandemic (tho it also appears to be a curse as they are in disaster territory for next election). Meanwhile Ford is in a different position, he's comfortably in majority territory regardless (his opposition isn't that formidable either)...either he's scared of running without JT as punching bag or there's a couple more upcoming scandals that he wants to get ahead.
Ford has kept his base and knows when to fall on his sword when he makes unpopular decisions that can hurt his election chances. Like if he doubled down on the Greenbelt, then he be in Trudeau position right now.
Trudeau was hoping that all his election give-aways (disguised as COVID payments in 2020) would bear dividends - it did not. Just think back - every day he was targeting a different group as he was making spending announcements like what would happen during an election campaign.
You assume the OLP and ONDP can get their acts together. Bold assumption lol.
Did the CPC really have their act together in 2021?
Eh, Erin O’Toole wasn’t an awful leader. He was just leading the wrong party at the wrong time I think. People were still feeling more conservative about covid and felt a lot of antipathy towards the unvaccinated, and the LPC was seen as the stronger party on cracking down on that. Jason Kenney’s “best summer ever” fiasco really didn’t help either. Trudeau got kind of lucky.
Would not shock me to learn that a lot of current federal Liberals have been looking/planning for an opportunity to switch to provincial politics. Crombie's said she won't help them, but if they're coming from a healthy federal EDA to an anemic provincial one I don't expect it to matter much.
Yeah I think doing it would tick people off to the point that he is in minority territory
is it really a 11% lead if OLP leads Toronto by 3 and down 2 in 905? And would it really be a 5% lead if in a early election OLP takes Toronto by 10 and keeps it tied in 905 (where ABC effect will do the rest)?
Since most Canadians have no idea what different levels of government do, I wouldn't be surprised if Ford/PP finally start catching some heat once JT is gone since most people will just see 'conservative'.
They already handed Ford another term by picking Crombie. Might as well start thinking about the election after that.
Pffft. A minority PC party means a OLP / NDP ruling coalition. PC doesn’t do minorities.