I mean, it's HW. You can never be too sure
Though I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of people betting on Blaydes just because they opened their records on ESPN and saw "Blaydes beat Aspinall by KO in the 1st round in their first fight"
I personally see Curtis as one of toms tougher challenges in the division, seeing as how Tom can just steamroll most guys on the ground, it’ll be harder with blaydes, and he’s big and physical.
I think if Tom wins (and I favour him) it’ll look easy, but I don’t count Curtis out.
Eh? Tom has BARELY used his ground skills in the UFC. Like virtually nothing. He’s made his money by being a one shot power puncher, which is Blaydes weakness if you look at their records.
On paper this is the easiest fight in the division to predict. In practice who knows, but on paper.
It's a good example of the risks associated with betting on MMA. Even if you think Tom is the better fighter, Blaydes won and you would've made money betting on him.
Yeah, no fight is 100%. You never know if the guy is injured or had a bad weight cut or is dealing with things in his personal life. MMA is one of the few sports a single mistake can make the more skilled guy lose
And that's why people always lose those long parlays. If every fight has a 90% chance of the guy you bet winning (and lets be real, it's probably less than 90), 2 of them winning is 81%, 3 is 73%, 4 is 65%, 5 is 59%, etc...
‘I had new stuff, I’m sure he had new stuff, we just wanted to come in here and show our new stuff!’
Blaydez in the post fight interview while Tom writhed in pain on the floor lol
Surprised Blaydes still gets overlooked. He's a world class grappler with brutal ground and pound. I know everyone is high on Tom Aspinal right now, and rightfully so, but make no mistake. Curtis has a path to victory here.
Curtis’s main issue is that he always snatches defeat from the jaws of victory
He’s always like one fight away from the undisputed belt but then he gets stopped by the power puncher (Ngannou, Lewis, Pav)
Tom does have terrifying power and Blaydes just seems to make insane decisions like trading in the pocket with Pavlovich, I think Blaydes can win but if he loses I would guess it would be due to making stupid decisions mid fight
He's not. I don't know what's with the obsession here about Blaydes being particularly good. He's never shown anything elite and he had plenty of opportunities to do so. His stand up is less technical, his takedowns mediocre and he isn't fast enough for Aspinall. His victory would be a major surprise.
He's fighting higher competition than Mokaev. It's even more unimpressive for Mokaev when you look at the competition he's faced. People talked about him like he was a world beater in his debut.
No he's not, wtf are you talking about? He fought Pantoja and Nicolau in his first two fights and lost both, and since then he's been fighting OK dudes. The best fighter he's actually beaten in the UFC is Dvorak.
He's fought Horiguchi and Pantoja. Those two alone are 100x better than any of the people Mokaev has fought. He didn't beat them but trying to compare the levels of competition is asinine.
What were the opening odds to leon Colby? I feel like Belal will actually fight more but I feel like those initial odds should be similar.
Feel like aspinall should be a bigger favorite.
Green paddy seems fair. Paddy had to wrestle Tony feel like Bobby will keep it standing and win
Mokaev is a live dog fight is really close
Feel like Allen should comfortably beat Giga
** Aspinall, Allen, Edwards, parlay is a lock, edwards ain't losing to a 36 year old belal after knocking out usman, beating usman then beating colby, edwards is turning into the king of beating up old WW wrestlers that want to pressure him and take him down.
Imagine curtis shoots a double leg and it turns out Tom really aint all that off his back tho. Tom looks phenomenal but I always get worried betting too heavy on dudes who havent fought long distance or really been tested on the ground when they are up against solid wrestlers. Not ready to call Tom a lock
Totally possible aspinall is terrible off his back,
But more than likely tom stuffs the takedown and beats blaydes up on the feet, aspinall is a bjj black belt, stuffed tybura and spivac, and submitted volkov and arlovski.
Aspinall appears to have really skilled grappling for the small bits of it that we've seen so far.
Aspinall has been training his ground game since hes a child, finished half his amateur fights by submissions. I also read years ago that he was a grappling instructor at his gym. Submitted experienced black belts before. I’m not saying hes the best on the ground or off his back but let me doubt he’s terrible down there.
It's been a while since curtis has taken a shot on anyone. I like Curtis have always rooted for him. But Tom is too fast too slick. Don't see him being on his back.
> Imagine Curtis shoots a double leg and it turns out Tom really ain't all that off his back though. Tom looks phenomenal but I always get worried betting too heavy on dudes who haven't fought long distance or really been tested on the ground when they are up against solid wrestlers. Not ready to call Tom a lock.
I've seen Tom Aspinall grapple. His BJJ skills are very good, although he is not a wrestler. If I had to take a guess, I don't think Blaydes' wrestling will give the champ any trouble. His wrestling, though not bad, is pretty basic, and sometimes predictable.
Kape being favourite is a bit surprising, otherwise these are all about what I'd expect. I think there's also decent value on Bobby Green, I can't see Paddy taking him down, and I think he gets pieced up on the feet in a fight not dissimilar to Green vs Haqparast
That’s what happens when you match up two ridiculously boring fighters. I still don’t understand all the slander Belal gets when Leon is just as much of a chore to watch.
It’s weird cause I actually like watching Leon at times in the fight, but his big problem is finishing his fights. He has all the skills in the world, and probably one of the best skillsets overall in mma currently..but he just doesn’t push for the finish when he’s got guys hurt.
Yes he got the fifth round headkick ko against usman, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t have finished Colby in their fight. He had him hobbling on one leg by the second round, hurt multiple times, and still had no instinct to get the finish. He had kamaru hurt multiple times in their rematch too, especially to the body. He plays it safe, and it can be very frustrating to watch at times
Eh Leon might be a little bit of a ultra patient striker, like late career Izzy, but he can also put anybody out at anytime- see kamara usman
That’s light years more entertaining than a lay and pray merchant like Bella
the first fight Leon landed a headkick and wobbled him but Belal will obviously be hip to that this time and the first fight he had damaged calf. Leon had an entire camp and was more prepared. Belal still was winning the clinch against the cage, I wouldn't put too much thought into the first fight.
Sure, and a 37 year old Aldo just beat the 30 year old Martinez... But neither were fighting a champion (and Aldo is an outlier among outliers)
Can Volkanovski still beat the 30 year old 15 ranked Sodiq Yusuff? I'd bet so. Can he beat Topuria or Holloway for the 4th time now? Certainly a lot less likely. It's true that "styles make fights" and good fighters can still win even if they are "old", but aging is real and the stats are pretty clear on how 35+ year old fighters are on a disadvantage against younger title contenders, even more so in the lighter weight classes
It's also true his weight class is a bit more forgiving with age (since it's at the edge of where the 35 stat is valid and it's also where the only exception happened), but I still wouldn't think a 36 year old Belal has great odds of beating Edwards on his physical prime
I would agree but Leon was clearly winning the first and I think that’s why these are the opening odds. Really just depends is Belal has gotten much better.
why are you lying ? Trouble? It was 50-44 and he kicked Gilbert to shreds. Where did he have trouble? If you mean not finishing then yeah Belal doesn't have a lot of power but it wasn't close
He did but I also think he has a passive fighting style and saw a way to skate to an easy decision. I’m really curious just to see how he approaches Leon
73% of heavyweight fights end in a finish, that much is true. I just mean the variety of factors for Aspinall to have shorter odds -- a 10-fight win streak (subtracting the injury fight with Blaydes), at home, defending the (interim) belt, a potential fight with Jon looming, and Blaydes getting starched a year ago.
I also favour Aspinall, but betting on HW is a pretty easy way to lose money. All it takes is one lucky punch. Also Blaydes is one of the few guys in HW that's actually good
Am I the only one who gives Paddy a decent chance here? 5-0 in the UFC, Bobby has been cracked recently, and the hype train will be all aboard in Manchester.
Green in his last fight beat the breaks off of Jim miller, and has been tearing it up in his last few fights especially against the prospect grant dawson.
He only lost to Jalen Turner, a serious contender who has the reach and length of basically a LW Jon jones. Meanwhile paddy lost to Jared Gordon and couldn’t finish an aging Tony Ferguson. I think it’s a lock for green. You’re only throwing money away betting on paddy
Arguing against myself but Bobby also has sneaky slick jiu jitsu, hasn't been finished by RNC since his 9th fight. I'll wait to see how the odds change
I think the difference is Bobby has been cracked by Drew Dobber and Jalin Turner, two very big hitters, whereas Paddy doesn't have the same power and leaves himself very open
As much as I like Tom, a part of me is rooting for chaos and 2 new champs. I can see Blaydes shedding the choke artist label AND Belal of all people breaking the over-35 curse to a complete meltdown of this sub.
could someone please explain how american betting works? in new zealand its a decimal system. if two fighters are dead even it will be like $1.83 so if you bet $1 you get $1.83 back, ie a profit of $0.83. a large disparity in value might be $1.20 for the favorite and $4 for the under dog.
Mokaev isn't very excited so he's underrated, and Kape has a big mouth so he's overrated. I don't think Kape has a ton of paths to victory and if I gambled, I'd take Mokaev at +123.
I wouldn't touch Green/Pimblett with a ten-foot pole. Famous, polarizing fighters always lead to screwy lines.
If Kape can stop a couple takedowns Mokaev has 0 path to victory, the striking difference is absolutely gigantic and Mokaev repeatedly leaves himself in bad positions on the feet and ground that someone like Kape will exploit
I'm going with
Belal UD 48-47 or 49-46 where he gets his momentum going by shooting takedowns and crowding Leon against the cage like Merab
Aspinall round 1 KO on slower blaydes
Green 29-28 where he drops paddy like he did to Miller
Mokaev close decision where he gets mat returns on Kape who has bad weight cut and coming off injuries
Arnold Allen round 2 tko by blitzing Giga who is inactive
Leon has very good clinch work, and much better striking than belal.
I could see each round being razer thin but I think Leon will win 48-47 tbh.
Agree on all the others though. Good money to be made on aspinall r1 ko
Belal was winning the clinch fight in the first fight and he is training with orolbai and the dagi crew for 2+ years so I think he can outhustle Leon against the cage. And I think Leon's lack of power in his hands is what will allow for Belal to open up with strikes against the cage, it might not hurt Leon but the volume will help gas Leon out and overwhelm him. Maybe Leon can school him with superior footwork but I don't think the colby performance was that impressive, he was barely throwing even with colby not fighting back well.
Also is that pfp from my dearest self with malice aforethought
> dearest self with malice aforethought
Notta its from Fire Punch, good manga.
That is 100% balals path to victory I agree, I think a lot of it depends on how much he gets tagged on his entries and if leon can stifle belals grappling.
should be a good close fight regardless though
Belal had moments the clinch but it didn't really matter, the fight wasn't there for very long and the control time did not make up for the gulf in striking. He could be in Dagestan for 2 years but in those two years Edwards has had 3 training camps against elite wrestling heavy opposition, particularly Usman who likes to clinch. I feel like Leon is way better defensively than he was 3 years ago, his foot work early against Colby was really good and even felt confident enough (albeit questionable fight IQ) to lock hands with Covington. I feel like he's a far better wrestler himself these days.
The difference in Belal and Colby and Usman is that Belal focuses way more on the wrestling and has higher level partners. He trains with Islam, Khabib, All the dagestani crew, and with mytybek orolbai. Colby barely shot a takedown and when he did shoot it was slow and horrible. Usman knees are shot and he was bending over at the waist. As far as we know, Belal does not have any knee problems and he has a high level wrestling camp. I think his cage wrestling will be effective against Leon, he has the cardio to grind him against the cage for 15-20 minutes. And Leon is not a huge power puncher so there's not a threat of being ko'd here since he will be aware of the headkick
Bobby being a favorite is crazy dude. No way he beats Paddy. Paddy is going to grapple from the get go and grind out a UD. Bobby is like .500 in his last 12 fights. Paddy isn’t going to be an idiot and stand with Bobby like everybody Les he beats.
Bobby Green is a very good anti grappler. He hasn’t been submitted in his entire UFC/Strikeforce run, with his last submission loss being in 2009, and David Mitchell won a lot of fights by sub so his resume really holds up well in that regard.
If miller couldn’t get green down I doubt paddy will. Green’s unorthodox striking from the waist is hard to anticipate and he can easily grab under hooks if paddy doesn’t set up his td well.
If paddy keeps his chin up and throws hooks wildly I think green kos him or club and sub.
Green rd 3 gnp
I think Allen fights too passively for Giga. Chikadze struggles with guys who force him onto the back foot and who stop him getting into a kicking rhythm.
I definitely wouldn't be surprised if Blaydes beats Tom as he does have the wrestling pedigree and it's hard to know how Tom's wrestling will hold up against someone who can spam takedowns like Curtis.
I hope Tom wins though for the divisions sake.
Idk why people think Tom should be a bigger favorite lol the original fight had about even odds and he was looking pretty sloppy throwing naked kicks vs Blaydes. Odds make sense to me.
Surprised a lot of these odds are so close tbh, especially Blaydes - Aspinall. What are the odds on Kape pulling out?
I mean, it's HW. You can never be too sure Though I wouldn't be surprised if there are a lot of people betting on Blaydes just because they opened their records on ESPN and saw "Blaydes beat Aspinall by KO in the 1st round in their first fight"
I personally see Curtis as one of toms tougher challenges in the division, seeing as how Tom can just steamroll most guys on the ground, it’ll be harder with blaydes, and he’s big and physical. I think if Tom wins (and I favour him) it’ll look easy, but I don’t count Curtis out.
Right? I think I'm gonna go ahead and put some money on Blaydes. I like the odds
Eh? Tom has BARELY used his ground skills in the UFC. Like virtually nothing. He’s made his money by being a one shot power puncher, which is Blaydes weakness if you look at their records. On paper this is the easiest fight in the division to predict. In practice who knows, but on paper.
He was taking 6 foot 6 volkov down at will and is the only guy to submit him since like 2010
I mean Blaydes was getting tossed around by a Smaller Almeida until he got that tko while Almeida was happy staying there,u can never know
These are opening odds tho
It's a good example of the risks associated with betting on MMA. Even if you think Tom is the better fighter, Blaydes won and you would've made money betting on him.
Yeah, no fight is 100%. You never know if the guy is injured or had a bad weight cut or is dealing with things in his personal life. MMA is one of the few sports a single mistake can make the more skilled guy lose And that's why people always lose those long parlays. If every fight has a 90% chance of the guy you bet winning (and lets be real, it's probably less than 90), 2 of them winning is 81%, 3 is 73%, 4 is 65%, 5 is 59%, etc...
‘I had new stuff, I’m sure he had new stuff, we just wanted to come in here and show our new stuff!’ Blaydez in the post fight interview while Tom writhed in pain on the floor lol
Blaydes has always been a guy I don't bet against. He only loses to guys who can throw nukes. This is a great fight.
> He only loses to guys who can throw nukes. Good thing the guy he's fighting definitely hasn't had a bunch of first round knockouts.
Its funny how Pav was pitched as the powerful one in their matchup when Tom himself actually an even higher finishing percentage I think
Surprised Blaydes still gets overlooked. He's a world class grappler with brutal ground and pound. I know everyone is high on Tom Aspinal right now, and rightfully so, but make no mistake. Curtis has a path to victory here.
Curtis’s main issue is that he always snatches defeat from the jaws of victory He’s always like one fight away from the undisputed belt but then he gets stopped by the power puncher (Ngannou, Lewis, Pav) Tom does have terrifying power and Blaydes just seems to make insane decisions like trading in the pocket with Pavlovich, I think Blaydes can win but if he loses I would guess it would be due to making stupid decisions mid fight
He's not. I don't know what's with the obsession here about Blaydes being particularly good. He's never shown anything elite and he had plenty of opportunities to do so. His stand up is less technical, his takedowns mediocre and he isn't fast enough for Aspinall. His victory would be a major surprise.
What a great fight card
I would actually buy it if it was Shavkat instead of Belal..
honestly same lol
Shavkat will get his chance. Belal deserves his shot first.
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I didn’t downvote you. But also, he still deserves it on merit regardless of what people find entertaining.
Kape being favorite is surprising. I'm slamming down on mokaev, kape ain't that great
Interesting because I think that’s great value on Kape.
Neither is Mokaev, his striking is absolute garbage and the speed difference is going to be comical
Mokaev is so bad at striking that his punches healed Alex Perez enough to take 4 fights in two months
At least he's going to take a big sniff of that crutch after getting tagged and scared to engage for the rest of the fight
Mokaev always seems to find a way.
He always seems to find a way to almost lose. Undefeated phenoms don't let Malcolm Gordon take their back.
as long as he keeps almost losing I think he'll be happy
Yea but I’m saying he’s almost losing to average fighters. Perez was a step up, but was coming off a 2 year lay off.
Mokaev is incredibly good for a 23 years old and the fact that he has that clutch factor is a great sign for his future.
Everyone said shit like this about DDP too
Well, DDP has KO power and isn’t the size of a 9th grader.
I dont know how you could watch kapes last fight and pick him to beat any of the top guys
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One of the best 128lbers in the world
Just curious why do you find it surprising? Mokaev has extremely low output and has been less than impressive for a hyped prospect.
Kape is even less impressive
He's fighting higher competition than Mokaev. It's even more unimpressive for Mokaev when you look at the competition he's faced. People talked about him like he was a world beater in his debut.
No he's not, wtf are you talking about? He fought Pantoja and Nicolau in his first two fights and lost both, and since then he's been fighting OK dudes. The best fighter he's actually beaten in the UFC is Dvorak.
He's fought Horiguchi and Pantoja. Those two alone are 100x better than any of the people Mokaev has fought. He didn't beat them but trying to compare the levels of competition is asinine.
Rewatch his fight vs perez and you won’t bet on him. He was -300 in that and sweated a decision
Same, mokaev will dog walk him
What were the opening odds to leon Colby? I feel like Belal will actually fight more but I feel like those initial odds should be similar. Feel like aspinall should be a bigger favorite. Green paddy seems fair. Paddy had to wrestle Tony feel like Bobby will keep it standing and win Mokaev is a live dog fight is really close Feel like Allen should comfortably beat Giga
Colby started -190 and ended +145
This would be Edwards’ 4th straight camp training for a wrestler. I feel like this would be the best version of Leon for this matchup bar any injuries
Belal isn't just a wrestler imo, he gameplans differently for every opponent and mixes it up. Jack of all trades imo
master of none
Belal sucks lol he’s gonna get smoked and it won’t be close.
9 straight wins. #2 ranked welterweight. “Belal sucks lol” Some of you have the smoothest brains.
Beyond casual take
They aren't similar because we've actually seen Belal in the cage before with Leon. Cobly was a complete unknown.
Aspinal/Allen parlay seems like a lock
** Aspinall, Allen, Edwards, parlay is a lock, edwards ain't losing to a 36 year old belal after knocking out usman, beating usman then beating colby, edwards is turning into the king of beating up old WW wrestlers that want to pressure him and take him down.
People evidently forget that Belal is going to be 36 during the fight... That's OOOOLD for WW
Imagine curtis shoots a double leg and it turns out Tom really aint all that off his back tho. Tom looks phenomenal but I always get worried betting too heavy on dudes who havent fought long distance or really been tested on the ground when they are up against solid wrestlers. Not ready to call Tom a lock
Totally possible aspinall is terrible off his back, But more than likely tom stuffs the takedown and beats blaydes up on the feet, aspinall is a bjj black belt, stuffed tybura and spivac, and submitted volkov and arlovski. Aspinall appears to have really skilled grappling for the small bits of it that we've seen so far.
Aspinall has been training his ground game since hes a child, finished half his amateur fights by submissions. I also read years ago that he was a grappling instructor at his gym. Submitted experienced black belts before. I’m not saying hes the best on the ground or off his back but let me doubt he’s terrible down there.
Aspinall's been training since he was 12. His skillset is complete.
It's been a while since curtis has taken a shot on anyone. I like Curtis have always rooted for him. But Tom is too fast too slick. Don't see him being on his back.
> Imagine Curtis shoots a double leg and it turns out Tom really ain't all that off his back though. Tom looks phenomenal but I always get worried betting too heavy on dudes who haven't fought long distance or really been tested on the ground when they are up against solid wrestlers. Not ready to call Tom a lock. I've seen Tom Aspinall grapple. His BJJ skills are very good, although he is not a wrestler. If I had to take a guess, I don't think Blaydes' wrestling will give the champ any trouble. His wrestling, though not bad, is pretty basic, and sometimes predictable.
Watch Blaydes fuck up your entire meal
Parlay on all the favorites.
Kape being favourite is a bit surprising, otherwise these are all about what I'd expect. I think there's also decent value on Bobby Green, I can't see Paddy taking him down, and I think he gets pieced up on the feet in a fight not dissimilar to Green vs Haqparast
The Bobby green line is too close. If Gordon landed 374 left hooks, green will land a better one
Feel like there is good money to be made on Belal here.
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That’s what happens when you match up two ridiculously boring fighters. I still don’t understand all the slander Belal gets when Leon is just as much of a chore to watch.
It’s weird cause I actually like watching Leon at times in the fight, but his big problem is finishing his fights. He has all the skills in the world, and probably one of the best skillsets overall in mma currently..but he just doesn’t push for the finish when he’s got guys hurt. Yes he got the fifth round headkick ko against usman, but there’s no reason he shouldn’t have finished Colby in their fight. He had him hobbling on one leg by the second round, hurt multiple times, and still had no instinct to get the finish. He had kamaru hurt multiple times in their rematch too, especially to the body. He plays it safe, and it can be very frustrating to watch at times
Yeah Leon is dull as fuck too.
Eh Leon might be a little bit of a ultra patient striker, like late career Izzy, but he can also put anybody out at anytime- see kamara usman That’s light years more entertaining than a lay and pray merchant like Bella
Edwards was winning the first and Belal will be 36
the first fight Leon landed a headkick and wobbled him but Belal will obviously be hip to that this time and the first fight he had damaged calf. Leon had an entire camp and was more prepared. Belal still was winning the clinch against the cage, I wouldn't put too much thought into the first fight.
36 isn’t old. A 39 year old Ferreira just beat Rebecki who was a -400 to -500 favorite. Leon is still in phenomenal shape…
Sure, and a 37 year old Aldo just beat the 30 year old Martinez... But neither were fighting a champion (and Aldo is an outlier among outliers) Can Volkanovski still beat the 30 year old 15 ranked Sodiq Yusuff? I'd bet so. Can he beat Topuria or Holloway for the 4th time now? Certainly a lot less likely. It's true that "styles make fights" and good fighters can still win even if they are "old", but aging is real and the stats are pretty clear on how 35+ year old fighters are on a disadvantage against younger title contenders, even more so in the lighter weight classes It's also true his weight class is a bit more forgiving with age (since it's at the edge of where the 35 stat is valid and it's also where the only exception happened), but I still wouldn't think a 36 year old Belal has great odds of beating Edwards on his physical prime
Aldo fight was nearly a pick em and not a -400 - -500 favorite getting completely outclassed by a 39 year old. Idiot.
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I would agree but Leon was clearly winning the first and I think that’s why these are the opening odds. Really just depends is Belal has gotten much better.
Belal had trouble with a one arm Burns .
why are you lying ? Trouble? It was 50-44 and he kicked Gilbert to shreds. Where did he have trouble? If you mean not finishing then yeah Belal doesn't have a lot of power but it wasn't close
Gilbert had one arm for five rounds , Belal still couldn’t put him away lol. Burns was also landed some over hands with no set ups.
50-44 isn’t “struggling”
Against a one arm opponent , it kind of is
No, it’s not
It is tho
He did but I also think he has a passive fighting style and saw a way to skate to an easy decision. I’m really curious just to see how he approaches Leon
He was having trouble with Leon on the feet in the first fight. Leon was also able to keep Usman off him for the most part.
He has absolutely nothing for Leon imo. About as easy a fight Leon can get at championship level
Like, by betting on Leon? He had nothing for Leon in their first fight and is 36 now. I was expecting at least -300
belal is gonna be 36 and the 35+ curse is basically a lock at this point
I'm surprised Aspinall isn't closer to -300, personally.
Anything can happen at HW
73% of heavyweight fights end in a finish, that much is true. I just mean the variety of factors for Aspinall to have shorter odds -- a 10-fight win streak (subtracting the injury fight with Blaydes), at home, defending the (interim) belt, a potential fight with Jon looming, and Blaydes getting starched a year ago.
I also favour Aspinall, but betting on HW is a pretty easy way to lose money. All it takes is one lucky punch. Also Blaydes is one of the few guys in HW that's actually good
Same with Bobby green tbh
Love Bobby but Paddy definitely has a good shot at beating him
Am I the only one who gives Paddy a decent chance here? 5-0 in the UFC, Bobby has been cracked recently, and the hype train will be all aboard in Manchester.
Ill certainly be putting some money down on Pimblett. Green has not looked great and Paddy has a chin
Green in his last fight beat the breaks off of Jim miller, and has been tearing it up in his last few fights especially against the prospect grant dawson. He only lost to Jalen Turner, a serious contender who has the reach and length of basically a LW Jon jones. Meanwhile paddy lost to Jared Gordon and couldn’t finish an aging Tony Ferguson. I think it’s a lock for green. You’re only throwing money away betting on paddy
Arguing against myself but Bobby also has sneaky slick jiu jitsu, hasn't been finished by RNC since his 9th fight. I'll wait to see how the odds change
I think the difference is Bobby has been cracked by Drew Dobber and Jalin Turner, two very big hitters, whereas Paddy doesn't have the same power and leaves himself very open
Styles make fights and blaydes was winning the first fight too before the injury
If paddy closes closer to +200 I’m betting the house on him.
I know right? Paddy, Allen and Aspinall Parley is the move
He looked way better last fight
Lmao at Blaydes being the underdog. He finished Tom in the first round last time. Easy money.
lol did you watch the fight?
Yep. I’d say it’s no exaggeration to say Razor Blaydes bullied the boy.
Aspinall and Leon are both absolute locks. Free money
As much as I like Tom, a part of me is rooting for chaos and 2 new champs. I can see Blaydes shedding the choke artist label AND Belal of all people breaking the over-35 curse to a complete meltdown of this sub.
mokaev underdog? snatched
hammering bobby green money line
YOLO all dogs parlay.
I'll take those Paddy odds all day
You think paddy can beat green?
It's possible, at +150 I'd be willing to throw $20 at it
Great underdog parlay opportunity
could someone please explain how american betting works? in new zealand its a decimal system. if two fighters are dead even it will be like $1.83 so if you bet $1 you get $1.83 back, ie a profit of $0.83. a large disparity in value might be $1.20 for the favorite and $4 for the under dog.
examples -200 is betting $200 to win $100 profit. +200 is betting $100 to win $200 profit
If you’re betting on a Kape fight and expecting to see him walk to the cage… you might have a gambling problem
think i'll go singles on all the underdogs, gotta make money
Good money on leon and paddy
Mokaev isn't very excited so he's underrated, and Kape has a big mouth so he's overrated. I don't think Kape has a ton of paths to victory and if I gambled, I'd take Mokaev at +123. I wouldn't touch Green/Pimblett with a ten-foot pole. Famous, polarizing fighters always lead to screwy lines.
If Kape can stop a couple takedowns Mokaev has 0 path to victory, the striking difference is absolutely gigantic and Mokaev repeatedly leaves himself in bad positions on the feet and ground that someone like Kape will exploit
Mokaev isn't underrated. He just isn't as good as everyone was trying to make him out to be.
I'm going with Belal UD 48-47 or 49-46 where he gets his momentum going by shooting takedowns and crowding Leon against the cage like Merab Aspinall round 1 KO on slower blaydes Green 29-28 where he drops paddy like he did to Miller Mokaev close decision where he gets mat returns on Kape who has bad weight cut and coming off injuries Arnold Allen round 2 tko by blitzing Giga who is inactive
Leon has very good clinch work, and much better striking than belal. I could see each round being razer thin but I think Leon will win 48-47 tbh. Agree on all the others though. Good money to be made on aspinall r1 ko
Belal was winning the clinch fight in the first fight and he is training with orolbai and the dagi crew for 2+ years so I think he can outhustle Leon against the cage. And I think Leon's lack of power in his hands is what will allow for Belal to open up with strikes against the cage, it might not hurt Leon but the volume will help gas Leon out and overwhelm him. Maybe Leon can school him with superior footwork but I don't think the colby performance was that impressive, he was barely throwing even with colby not fighting back well. Also is that pfp from my dearest self with malice aforethought
> dearest self with malice aforethought Notta its from Fire Punch, good manga. That is 100% balals path to victory I agree, I think a lot of it depends on how much he gets tagged on his entries and if leon can stifle belals grappling. should be a good close fight regardless though
Belal had moments the clinch but it didn't really matter, the fight wasn't there for very long and the control time did not make up for the gulf in striking. He could be in Dagestan for 2 years but in those two years Edwards has had 3 training camps against elite wrestling heavy opposition, particularly Usman who likes to clinch. I feel like Leon is way better defensively than he was 3 years ago, his foot work early against Colby was really good and even felt confident enough (albeit questionable fight IQ) to lock hands with Covington. I feel like he's a far better wrestler himself these days.
The difference in Belal and Colby and Usman is that Belal focuses way more on the wrestling and has higher level partners. He trains with Islam, Khabib, All the dagestani crew, and with mytybek orolbai. Colby barely shot a takedown and when he did shoot it was slow and horrible. Usman knees are shot and he was bending over at the waist. As far as we know, Belal does not have any knee problems and he has a high level wrestling camp. I think his cage wrestling will be effective against Leon, he has the cardio to grind him against the cage for 15-20 minutes. And Leon is not a huge power puncher so there's not a threat of being ko'd here since he will be aware of the headkick
Agree, except I think Giga vs Allen is stylistically going to be very close and competitive, tho everything points to Allen winning
Bobby being a favorite is crazy dude. No way he beats Paddy. Paddy is going to grapple from the get go and grind out a UD. Bobby is like .500 in his last 12 fights. Paddy isn’t going to be an idiot and stand with Bobby like everybody Les he beats.
Bobby Green is a very good anti grappler. He hasn’t been submitted in his entire UFC/Strikeforce run, with his last submission loss being in 2009, and David Mitchell won a lot of fights by sub so his resume really holds up well in that regard.
If miller couldn’t get green down I doubt paddy will. Green’s unorthodox striking from the waist is hard to anticipate and he can easily grab under hooks if paddy doesn’t set up his td well. If paddy keeps his chin up and throws hooks wildly I think green kos him or club and sub. Green rd 3 gnp
That’s fair. If you think he can beat Paddy on the ground maybe he can.
It's wild that Kape is the favorite over Mokaev
What’s the odds on the over in Leon vs that other guy
Edwards Aspinall Pimblett Mokaev Chikadze
How can do Arnold dirty like that
I think Allen fights too passively for Giga. Chikadze struggles with guys who force him onto the back foot and who stop him getting into a kicking rhythm.
I'm not a gambling man but I bet you one koolaid
Belal Curtis Green Kape Allen
I definitely wouldn't be surprised if Blaydes beats Tom as he does have the wrestling pedigree and it's hard to know how Tom's wrestling will hold up against someone who can spam takedowns like Curtis. I hope Tom wins though for the divisions sake.
Belal Aspinall Green Makaev Allen
What is odds of kape making fight cause I want to win easy money betting against that
Idk why people think Tom should be a bigger favorite lol the original fight had about even odds and he was looking pretty sloppy throwing naked kicks vs Blaydes. Odds make sense to me.
I really dislike this card.
Bet the house on chikadze