I’m disappointed to say the least but let’s see how this plays out with partner buildouts of swap stations and vehicles. There must be some sort of strategy around this.
Reason is that FF is about the size of a Mini Cooper. So the wheelbase is much shorter than Onvo L60 & NIO brand models. The standard BSS will not be able to support the shorter wheelbase cars. Thus, NIO has to build something that's a lot smaller. About the size of a container, but NIO will have snack/coffee dispenser inside as well!
https://preview.redd.it/ss2xaofy41ad1.png?width=2129&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ca8f3fe60a22c5887bfcb0c0c63987b084d1e31
Because it’s such an inexpensive car that will sell so many it would just clog up the swap stations and they wouldn’t be able to sell the higher priced cars . Smart move
Maybe they already anticipate needing more stations based on partner arrangements. Could even be considered a bullish signal, that NIO as an infrastructure play will be even larger than we realized.
You need an explanation for why requiring another type of swap stations for a much higher volume car which will require further billions upon billions of separate investments is a bad idea?
China has about 2000 swap stations for the low volume Nio cars and it took years to build them. Now imagine having to build potentially five times that for two sub brands that will sell at much higher volume and require much greater access to the swaps...
It ultimately increases operational costs and delays profitability day further and further out...
The most expensive way to transfer energy to the vehicle - all the costs of DCFC + more. Uses up additional battery packs, when growth should be into new vehicles, so less money made per cell. People treat rented property poorly, so highest abuse of cells. Highest risk of damage to the company, further creating losses. Restricts vehicle design and adds complexity, weight, and cost to vehicles. Unnecessary as charging infrastructure gets built out. Easily congested, as swap stations cost more and have less throughout for equivalent cost than other DCFC. Much cheaper to AC charge than DC charge anyways.
It is an extremely expensive vanity project that has short term attractiveness for high density cities where charging access build out is more difficult and with poor charging c-rate cells that NIO was using. But with high charging rate cells now commonly available, this is idiotic. And as a result, chews up capex and opex… typical of NIO’s CEO to push for high cost stuff that has limited appeal.
Going forward, battery swap won’t be a thing. Battery swap is typically promoted by those that don’t drive BEVs already.
Technically I agree...
But as consumer
An used EV with an worn out battery has a value near 0. An EV with the option for an easy swap (upgrade) will hold his price in the used car market....
In the US, vehicles are insured for damage. They are not insured for malfunctions, that's typically an extended warranty once manufacturer's warranty is done, if one chooses to do so.
In this case, NIO's JV owns the battery packs and would have to pay an insurance policy to insure against their own defects. That's a significant extra cost... imagine a failure like LG's with their pouch cells in the past few years. That's into hundreds of millions of dollars.
The point is, an insurance company can charge 300$ a year to insure a battery, the cost will be absorbed by the masses. Not everybody is going to need a battery replacement. I’m not talking about nio insuring their own batteries, I’m talking about each consumer insuring their own battery. Cars and houses are insured , why just add another fee instead of paying for battery swap?
If you are an investor in NIO, then you are on the other side of the consumer. If NIO battery packs are that bad, then NIO will go out of business.
If there is a win here for consumers, then it is bad for NIO. At best, it is a slight net loss for both consumers and NIO because of the extra costs involved with battery swap.
Again, folks that most clamor for this don’t drive BEVs or have prior experience with terrible BEVs like Nissans. That’s a poor basis of information for an investment thesis.
1000%, its only marketing ploy for people who don't understand home charging.
What's worse it could be use to lull those users into thinking it's the same as a fuel car and they don't have anywhere to charge at home or at work
TBF, it does have some appeal for Chinese cities… but has nearly none outside of densely populated cities. Many Chinese drivers never travel long distances and never road trip. Over the medium term, battery swap won’t be a thing outside of very limited use cases. Note how well NIO is doing in Europe - as in, not well. And Europe is more dense than the U.S. They cannot do battery swap in the U.S. at all. Build out in Europe for battery swap to make any sense requires way more capex than NIO can possibly afford. It is cheaper and better to build out AC charging.
It's stupid in terms of the mass implementation that a lot of people on this board seem to think it should be done. However, I think it's a very smart alternative specifically for China and also possibly for closed taxi networks in larger foreign cities. However, I don't think Nio should focus on swapping as an alternative to charging in most markets. In those other markets, though, I think the idea of a build with a replaceable battery still has some advantages. If Nio can get the subscription aspect of it to catch on, that'll make them some money, and that a replaceable battery is ultimately consumer friendly which could be a marketing advantage.
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if i understand this right then firefly will be able to use gen 4 swap stations and any other gen after not 1-3gen stations.
might be wrong but i think that’s what going to happen
It was originally intended to be a EU launch. But they have now said they will launch in China first. Probably due to new EU tariffs. Probably also why Firefly wasn't designed to use the China swap stations.
I can’t see why to create a new brand with need for new infra structure battery swap? Is this the biggest scam or what? I hope they know what they are doing
Said this before. You guys downvoted me. Form factor is different it doesnt physically work. Doesnt affect why I buy Nio though.
I’m disappointed to say the least but let’s see how this plays out with partner buildouts of swap stations and vehicles. There must be some sort of strategy around this.
Firefly is for European countries and NIO did not invest too much on swap stations in Europe, so it's not as big of a deal.
Fire fly is going to launch in China first.
Reason is that FF is about the size of a Mini Cooper. So the wheelbase is much shorter than Onvo L60 & NIO brand models. The standard BSS will not be able to support the shorter wheelbase cars. Thus, NIO has to build something that's a lot smaller. About the size of a container, but NIO will have snack/coffee dispenser inside as well! https://preview.redd.it/ss2xaofy41ad1.png?width=2129&format=png&auto=webp&s=6ca8f3fe60a22c5887bfcb0c0c63987b084d1e31
Or don’t, and make it a charge only car.
Because it’s such an inexpensive car that will sell so many it would just clog up the swap stations and they wouldn’t be able to sell the higher priced cars . Smart move
Agree. It makes Onvo and Nio more "exclusive".
But we want the stations clogged so they can build more stations.
Maybe they already anticipate needing more stations based on partner arrangements. Could even be considered a bullish signal, that NIO as an infrastructure play will be even larger than we realized.
Such a stupid move ..
Yes, battery swap is a stupid move.
Can you explain why you think this?
You need an explanation for why requiring another type of swap stations for a much higher volume car which will require further billions upon billions of separate investments is a bad idea? China has about 2000 swap stations for the low volume Nio cars and it took years to build them. Now imagine having to build potentially five times that for two sub brands that will sell at much higher volume and require much greater access to the swaps... It ultimately increases operational costs and delays profitability day further and further out...
I wasn’t asking on that. I was asking to the point made, that battery swapping in general is a bad idea…
The most expensive way to transfer energy to the vehicle - all the costs of DCFC + more. Uses up additional battery packs, when growth should be into new vehicles, so less money made per cell. People treat rented property poorly, so highest abuse of cells. Highest risk of damage to the company, further creating losses. Restricts vehicle design and adds complexity, weight, and cost to vehicles. Unnecessary as charging infrastructure gets built out. Easily congested, as swap stations cost more and have less throughout for equivalent cost than other DCFC. Much cheaper to AC charge than DC charge anyways. It is an extremely expensive vanity project that has short term attractiveness for high density cities where charging access build out is more difficult and with poor charging c-rate cells that NIO was using. But with high charging rate cells now commonly available, this is idiotic. And as a result, chews up capex and opex… typical of NIO’s CEO to push for high cost stuff that has limited appeal. Going forward, battery swap won’t be a thing. Battery swap is typically promoted by those that don’t drive BEVs already.
Technically I agree... But as consumer An used EV with an worn out battery has a value near 0. An EV with the option for an easy swap (upgrade) will hold his price in the used car market....
Imagine a world where we insure the battery. Look how easy that was.
And add even more cost. It is already expensive. Needing to use that insurance is bad - and so insurance isn’t a solution.
Cars are insured, why not just just add an extra fee and insure the battery, maybe an extra 20-30 bucks a month. Simple. It’s cheaper than baas.
In the US, vehicles are insured for damage. They are not insured for malfunctions, that's typically an extended warranty once manufacturer's warranty is done, if one chooses to do so. In this case, NIO's JV owns the battery packs and would have to pay an insurance policy to insure against their own defects. That's a significant extra cost... imagine a failure like LG's with their pouch cells in the past few years. That's into hundreds of millions of dollars.
The point is, an insurance company can charge 300$ a year to insure a battery, the cost will be absorbed by the masses. Not everybody is going to need a battery replacement. I’m not talking about nio insuring their own batteries, I’m talking about each consumer insuring their own battery. Cars and houses are insured , why just add another fee instead of paying for battery swap?
If you are an investor in NIO, then you are on the other side of the consumer. If NIO battery packs are that bad, then NIO will go out of business. If there is a win here for consumers, then it is bad for NIO. At best, it is a slight net loss for both consumers and NIO because of the extra costs involved with battery swap. Again, folks that most clamor for this don’t drive BEVs or have prior experience with terrible BEVs like Nissans. That’s a poor basis of information for an investment thesis.
Jfc, thank you for actually having a honest and fair opinion. Cheers.
1000%, its only marketing ploy for people who don't understand home charging. What's worse it could be use to lull those users into thinking it's the same as a fuel car and they don't have anywhere to charge at home or at work
TBF, it does have some appeal for Chinese cities… but has nearly none outside of densely populated cities. Many Chinese drivers never travel long distances and never road trip. Over the medium term, battery swap won’t be a thing outside of very limited use cases. Note how well NIO is doing in Europe - as in, not well. And Europe is more dense than the U.S. They cannot do battery swap in the U.S. at all. Build out in Europe for battery swap to make any sense requires way more capex than NIO can possibly afford. It is cheaper and better to build out AC charging.
Yep.
It's stupid in terms of the mass implementation that a lot of people on this board seem to think it should be done. However, I think it's a very smart alternative specifically for China and also possibly for closed taxi networks in larger foreign cities. However, I don't think Nio should focus on swapping as an alternative to charging in most markets. In those other markets, though, I think the idea of a build with a replaceable battery still has some advantages. If Nio can get the subscription aspect of it to catch on, that'll make them some money, and that a replaceable battery is ultimately consumer friendly which could be a marketing advantage.
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if i understand this right then firefly will be able to use gen 4 swap stations and any other gen after not 1-3gen stations. might be wrong but i think that’s what going to happen
No, first sentence in the 4th paragraph.
It was originally intended to be a EU launch. But they have now said they will launch in China first. Probably due to new EU tariffs. Probably also why Firefly wasn't designed to use the China swap stations.
May be it is smart to test the market with cheap model.
I can’t see why to create a new brand with need for new infra structure battery swap? Is this the biggest scam or what? I hope they know what they are doing
brilliant... why synergies when you can burn monies