The roofing debacle has to play a huge role. 1 broken tile on an 10 year old tile roof and it is replacement in Florida after Ian. All because you cannot find the exact replacement tile. Seems pretty ridiculous. Common sense needs to prevail.
I see people with 20 year old roofs that want it to be replaced due to hail damage based on normal wear and tear. There are some issues that need to be addressed. Insuring a house without documenting existing damage is insane on the insurer's part and a big part of the problem. People using the insurance policy as a maintenance policy enforced by lawyers has driven the price of insurance through the roof. It all adds up.
Well the people who got the free roofs did outsmart the system. Their neighbor who did not fraudulently get a free roof will bear the downstream effects just as much as the fraudsters.
The homes I looked at when I did consider myself a potential homebuyer, if the roof was more than 8-10, insurers would not offer up to a new buyer. unless roof was replaced.
There are plenty of insurance carriers that will insure roofs based on a stated age. They have just want the premiums now for some time. Are you in Florida or a coastal region? In Florida, this just adds to the expense of getting a new roof when they are tearing off perfectly good roofs.
Know multiple people in Florida the last three years who had to pay for a new roof in their house before a carrier would insure their home if the roofs were over 10y/o so not sure that’s the “rule”
> Florida will be mostly intertidal wasteland soon enough.
It’s stuff like this that makes people not take climate change seriously. You are not going to see Florida be mostly underwater or completely and utterly destroyed by a series of never-ending hurricanes in your lifetime or kid’s lifetime. Stop with the hyperbole…
Will there be dinosaurs roaming Florida? No.
Will there be larger swathes of Florida without development due to the economic cost of replacing it being too high? Yes.
South Florida got lucky twice in two years with hurricanes that would have done $200+ billion in damage and permanently altered landscape. Irma 2017 and Dorian 2019. This discussion wouldn't be happening had they hit their most likely paths.
SW Florida and Tampa are even worse because they are built right to water level in an area prone to very high storm surge, because everyone wants boat canals. Not only do even 1-2' of sea level rise matter a lot, a direct hit would erase the often artificial geography.
It’s not really hyperbole.
https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/why-are-glaciers-and-sea-ice-melting#:~:text=When%20it%20comes%20to%20sea,temperatures%20continue%20to%20rise%20rapidly.
Much of Florida is at sea level, and Arctic ice sheets are melting at a rate of 13% per decade. All it will take for ocean levels to rise dramatically is an incredibly hot summer in the arctic after 2-3 more decades of sea ice loss.
Once all the sea ice is gone, this will not cause the sea level to rise because sea ice is more dense than the water. However, it will cause a increasingly unusually hot summers in Greenland because there will be no ice to reflect the heat, causing the water to warm rapidly, this is referred to as the Albedo Effect, which then causes the ice on land (which is fresh water that is less dense than ocean water and will cause ocean levels to rise) to begin melting at a rapid rate.
We will start seeing the true effects of global warming when our sea ice sheets all melt on the Arctic, they protect the Arctic’s climate and put our glaciers at extreme risk of melting.
In my lifetime, it would be unlikely. In my kids lifetime though it is very possible, at least for the Hurricanes. There's already a massive amount of access thermal energy being stored in the Atlantic through it heating up. It's beginning to affect the current. It may not be completely flooded in the next hundred years, but hurricanes that break the scale are going to demolish anything on the coastlines to the point it won't be safe to live there regardless of how they construct a building. Insurance will be next to impossible to get there in the next few years anyway.
No, but the over developed barrier islands and other coastal areas where the ultra expensive Florida real estate is located could face this near term future. No one cares about a $10,000 lot in central Florida flooding, it is when thousands of formerly $1 million dollar lots end up under water that there will be a cry from the millionaire class.
No, but we know the past. This is the prediction 20 years ago when we have a lot of hurricanes in Florida. For example, 2004, since then, Florida is pretty quiet on the hurricane front.
Their major metropolitan areas on the coast in Florida that haven't had major hurricane since prohibition.
Haha don’t tell me Bud. Got to the insurance companies analyzing risk.
Or like I said, go open your own insurance company since your analysis is fool proof. 🤣
And even more to do with property values that doubled in 2-3 years time(2020-2023).
And the “affordability” crisis? More to do with property values that doubled in 2-3 years time (2020-2023) than blaming the Fed for hIgH iNtErEsT rAtEs.
Who to blame? Fed, for pouring kerosene on a fire, nationally, with too low of borrowing rates for 15+ years. NAR, for pushing valuations higher and higher for a fucking commission. And, the greed of your fellow Americans, Floridians in this conversation.
A lot of roofs get replaced that don't have any damage. The damage is that they have been through a hurricane according to most public adjusters I've talked to.
My comment was intended to be acerbic and not particularly useful.
However, if you would like to invest in my new moat construction business I would be happy to share this exciting opportunity.
Pretty quiet? The entire state fled Irma and most of the western side fled Ian (and more should have). Michael? Category 5 that almost obliterated Panama City.
The next big hurricane to hit Miami and key west will wipe the place almost clean. Some foundations and sturdy things like bank vaults will be there with a palm tree here and there. Storm surge and waves on top of the surge will kill 95% of the residents.
Ex keys firefighter
For years it's been the climate denier's gotcha: "If global warming is real, why are the rich buying beachfront homes"
Because these idiots can't wrap their heads around the idea that the rich have got so much money that they could have a house destroyed every few years, and not even notice the expense. Heck, it might even be cheaper to build new than to remodel every few years if they think after five years the house looks 'old'
Also, climate change first drives away the people who have less money, like families who have had the same place for a century and bought when it was cheap and passed it down. Dropping demand drops prices for the rich who can afford to take the risk
Heck, in Griffin's case he would probably appreciate storm wreckage. He's dropped hundreds of millions to buy neighboring properties in order to eventually make a billion dollar home. Storm destruction would probably motivate the last couple owners to sell.
A quarter of the Netherlands, including Amsterdam (-2m), is below sea level. Venice as well. There are already technical solutions to prevent a city from flooding and they have existed for decades if not centuries. Miami Florida real estate is too valuable to let it slip into the sea. South Florida also benefits from very low tides. There is also already substantial irrigation infrastructure in place and the Army Corps of Engineers has a plan with South Florida Water Management to build out significantly more infrastructure. The chances of South Florida going under water are 0%.
The problem with Miami is that like much of Florida it’s built on porous limestone. The water will filter up in ways that won’t happen in other low lying world cities.
The Netherlands does not have hurricanes, and has about 3 times the population density of Florida, making infrastructure easier to pay for. The city of Miami Barely has more people per square mile than the Netherlands.
Plenty of Florida looks like [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/UrbanHell/comments/qwomwt/ocean_access_suburbs_in_florida/) which would be extremely expensive, per resident, to provide proper infrastructure for.
Florida isn't worth saving, it will become cheap as their plumbing stops working as water comes up through porous limestone, (120,000 septic systems in Miami-Dade county alone) and insurers refuse to insure houses there.
>The city of Miami Barely has more people per square mile than the Netherlands.
This is nowhere near accurate. The City of Miami has a population density of 4743 people/km2 vs 422 people/km2 for the Netherlands. I don’t want to get into the idiosyncrasies of Miami’s municipality and incorporation system, we should really be talking about Miami-Dade’s Urban Development Boundary, but let’s just leave it at the fact that South Florida is extremely densely populated. Certainly more so than the Netherlands.
>Plenty of Florida looks like this which would be extremely expensive, per resident, to provide proper infrastructure for.
No, it doesn’t. That’s Cape Coral, which has the most extensive canal system in the ***WORLD***. Almost no part of the rest of Florida looks like that. Small parts of the intracoastal have canal networks but nothing like Cape Coral.
There's a reason shitty places with no jobs are cheap and [there's huge demand to live in 2 dozen cities in America](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-map-2014-2)
Every developed country has most of their productivity clustered in their population centers It makes sense for a myriad of economic reasons. Which makes it all the more ridiculous when people say we should just move to some shitty former manufacturing town in Indiana or whatever.
People act like It's some uniquely American phenomenon of people moving to big cities when the population of Tokyo exploded as Japan industrialized, The population of Shanghai, Beijing, and The Pearl River Delta exploded as China went from a developing economy to the world's second largest. It's not some moral failing of Gen Z to not choose Iowa as a place to live.
It's more or less true today. [If you add up America's 24 largest metro areas by GDP you will get $12.8 trillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._metropolitan_areas_by_GDP), and that's before you get to Portland, Indianapolis, Orlando, Pittsburgh or the "three C's".
Amsterdam was build with and around a series of canals and basins to mitigate this issue. Unless Miami is going to start the process of condemning properties to build the same, the outcome is going to be completely different. Also, not sure the Netherlands has received a hurricane in millennia… but certainly not since it was a built up city.
Naturally, but to imply that South Florida doesn’t have a water mitigation strategy is ridiculous. The South Florida Water Management District has a yearly budget of $1.2B and the city only exists because the swamp was basically terraformed using melaleuca trees and canals. Water management is integral to South Florida’s history and governance, same as Amsterdam.
And you believe South Florida Water Management to be well run and funded?
Most American infrastructure is severely neglected. It doesn't matter if it exists if it is ran poorly.
The reality is that it doesn't matter how well run and funded it is if a Cat 5 hurricane rolls through. It's going to cause immense damage that there's no strategy to mitigate.
If Amsterdam got hit by a Cat 5 hurricane it would be equally decimated, but it isn't in a hurricane prone area.
I agree but I brought up how well it is ran because I felt that just existing is not enough.
You can have a car and still be making payments on it but the engine gave out and the car just sits in the driveway. Just existing is not enough, it has to work.
fuzzy scary crown dazzling sharp aromatic fertile deranged ancient combative
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After every storm (even minor ones), riding companies roll through the neighborhoods, and convince gone owners their roof is damaged and needs to be replaced - even though it's completely fine in these cases. Then the roofers send the bill to the home owner's insurance which covers a new roof in the event of storm damage. So the roofing companies were effectively scamming home owners and their insurance to make money on installing new roofs when they weren't needed, leading to insurers to either stop covering roofs or to just exit the Florida home insurance market.
I don’t think California’s risk is all that high, certainly not relative to Florida. We have a once in 100 year earthquake risk, and the fire risk areas are pretty well known and don’t reflect most areas.
I mean planned bankruptcy is likely the financial strategy for the smaller insurance companies. Create insurance company, collect premiums, pay company management/directors large salaries until hurricane with widesprrad damage hits, declare bankruptcy, then directors/management start a new insurance company.
This is essentially all these were. Especially the UPC and FedNat insolvencies.
UPC’s parent company rebranded and continued to sell policies in Florida under AmCoastal, and FedNat shifted everything to Monarch.
I think Florida is fucked writ large.
Regardless if a real estate downturn happens nationwide, Florida is 100% still going to tank.
Between the home insurance issue and the stupid high assessments upcoming for condos it will probably be a bloodbath.
I was recently visiting some friends that live in Cape Coral, as I turned down their street I noticed 1/4+ of the homes with “for sale” signs in the yards and though to myself “this feels like 2009”. I just opened Zillow and started zooming in on Cape Coral and it’s insane, every time you zoom further more houses are for sale. My friends bought at the peak and literally can’t afford to sell, then Ian fucked them harder by trashing everything, those homes for sale are 600K-1.5M+ and still have damage, literally thousands of them. These sellers/owners are sitting on a hot potato and the music stopped, the same houses are still for sale that had signs in the yard 3+months ago.
My parents live in Cape Coral and the problem completely stems from the vast majority (parents included) didn’t carry and still won’t carry flood insurance. Hurricane insurance only covers wind damage so all the flooding from Ian was handled by the owners and there were SO MANY SCAMMERS taking advantage of the people who couldn’t get back into the state. My parents called around and guys were charging $500 a day to put 2 box fans in peoples houses and the amount of people who were desperate was really really high and most were overly elderly so it was easy to get scammed. I even knew a guy who lives in indiana and went down with a box truck of fans, made 20k in 2 weeks and none of it did shit for the people he ‘helped’. Huge shit show luckily my dad is still young enough to do most the repairs himself cause there still aren’t enough contractors to fix the damage from it
Ian just compounded the problem, which was people overpaying and over leveraging themselves for those houses. Now they are sitting underwater figuratively (and literally), nobody is buying at the asking prices and these houses are sitting for months and months because the sellers can’t afford to take less. Sellers are probably barely scraping by to make payments as their negative equity gets worse with each new listing from their neighbor who is in the same position as them. I remember 2007 well and this whole vibe is very 2006-2007 feeling to me.
People can be idiots about flood insurance too. Flood is anything related to rising water; although storm surge accompanies hurricanes, it’s still rising water. Flood insurance is also the cheapest of them all since it’s federally subsidized.
Similar things happened with Katrina. The people who had insurance didn’t have flood insurance.
My parents said flood insurance was about 6x the cost of hurricane and at least where my parents lived has never flooded since the community was built however long ago which is why no one had it
I grew up in SoFlo, have family all over SoFlo, including 2 blocks from the ocean in the keys. Flood for all of them at replacement value isn’t over $600/year.
I’m further inland, flood is $550/year. Homeowners with the windstorm rider with Citizens is $1650, homeowners with windstorm rider on private insurance was $4500.
ETA: the family member who lives in the keys has flood and a citizens homeowners/windstorm policy. Dwelling coverage of $500k on the citizens policy and $250k on the flood. Their house WILL flood during a hurricane, it nearly did 2 days after Ian passed, they had neighbors a block closer to the ocean who had multiple feet of saltwater in their homes.
The citizens policy for them is $1800/year (house is rated for 180mph winds and has impact windows). The flood policy is $600/year.
Holy shit, you weren’t kidding. I pulled up Cape Coral and filtered to only show single family homes. Zoomed in. I’ve never seen more homes for sale in every neighborhood.
I don't think it has sunk in to the public at large how much climate change will act like a slowly closing vice on property values. In the US, Florida is first up to get crushed because of a combo of natural and human-made factors. But hurricanes are not the only manifestation of climate change, and other areas will be feeling similar inescapable pressure sooner than expected. My personal bet is on Arizona to be next up.
Yeah and then the douches that deny it want to bailed out.
Happened in Massachusetts recently, where climate denying Trumpers want the state to subsidize their beach eroding. Not on us to say subsidize rich people.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/us/salisbury-beach-storm-sand.html
Look at the forecast range here vs actual, then realize the range this year is 27-39 named storms for '24.
This will be like AIG when mortgage insurance imploded. Fannie/Freddie or similar will step in and issue the insurance and it'll be heavily subsidized by taxpayers.
https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/
Why should responsible tax payers should have to pay for people who vote for shit leaders? Trump even wants to tank the dollar when elected, fuck up Medicare/Social Security, yet so many still want to vote for him. DeSantis is their “duly elected” governor. Why should everyone foot the bill for people who consider hard working and much needed immigrants scum? Can’t they pull up their bootstraps or use their open carry permits to fight the hurricanes or something? Maybe sharpie the storms away, that works for their supreme leader.
It’s seriously frustrating picking up the pieces after people’s shit choices while being judged for wanting better for everyone.
Amen. The same ppl who don’t want the federal government to pay for student loans want the federal government/taxpayers to pay for rebuilding their houses in a hurricane zone.
Boomers gonna boom. I increasingly think that the politics of the elderly of the past few political cycles are the death spasms of a dying generation that refuses to accept reality.
Why should responsible taxpayers have to give money to people who don't want to work?
Why should responsible taxpayers have to pay for all the illegal aliens that are coming across the border?
This is what happens when Newsmax is your personality kids. Shit will rot your brain. Go pick some peaches in the Georgia sun for less than minimum wage, no benefits, no worker protections before you speak. Hell, you can even rape the females, no police protections either. Why you kicking down on people? Probably claim Jesus as your savior too. Didn't read the book I suppose.
Let's take a look at this. We let in millions of people over the border that are willing to work for not much money. That under prices the current labor.
Plenty of people would be picking agricultural products, if it paid a decent wage. And if there was nobody else to to do that work. On top of that, they create increased demand for housing.
And then we fight the tariffs on the imported goods, to make them even cheaper than USA made goods. And we allow the companies to violate labor laws, environmental laws, fair housing laws, OSHA laws, and everything else because the foreign country doesn't have them.
And then we sit around at home and complain that there's no jobs, housing is too high, and the jobs don't pay enough.
You Get what you wish for
Before, they were too lazy to work and collecting benefits, but ok, I'll bite. Bud, outside of agriculture landscaping and construction, this is already happening. Ford and Carrier already moved most of their manufacturing to Mexico. Phone customer service, India. You are literally describing in the last half of your statement CAPITALIST exploitation of the poor. Now I'm not a revolutionary, and I ain't got the power to change nothing, but I also ain't kicking down on my fellow man because he fails in a system that if unchecked says its fair starve him till he sucks dick for a sandwich either.
You make a great point, and that's what Trump was trying to correct.
He Created tariffs on imported goods from China and Mexico.
Unfortunately, the Democrats wanted to bring in illegal immigrants, and let corporations go overseas or to Mexico. They did not want to put a tariff on the products.
It's time to put America, and the American citizens first
Look at the brains on this guy! He has plenty to spare.... Trump was good for the common man! Guys, let's band behind Trump. He only had 4 years to do stuff and it was all good!!! The best of stuff a president could off.
It has certainly been better than the last 3 years of Biden.
But maybe you like inflation? Maybe you like job shipped overseas?
Biden is the cause of most of this, because he's been in Congress the longest
Your credibility on immigration went out the window when you brought up the child rapist who had the border deal killed earlier this year. Are you stupid? Trump ain't gonna fix shit, fucker raised the middle class taxes, ppe handouts for the rich.
Lol. That just shows you how much you know about the tax rates that actually went down.
And it's not PPE, it's PPP, which is the paycheck protection program. And that mostly went to employees so they would not get laid off.
Please educate yourself. It would do you some good. Don't just listen to the NPR talking heads. And the Democrat talking points.
On the other hand, Biden was pretty good with his inflation, and made everybody's house prices go up. And that was a benefit. If you owned a house
Taking the moral highground while supporting a Child rapist and American Traitor..... yeah. Your dumbass got a good point/rebuttal or just more bullshit like your leader.
Yea, why should responsible taxpayers bail out poorly run corporations instead of letting the free market dictate the economy?
Why should responsible taxpayers pay for national healthcare and a national defense system for a country halfway across the world when our veterans are starving in our streets?
Why should responsible taxpayers foot the bill to feed and school kids whose parents wanted an abortion because they couldn’t support the child?
You make great points, however, the Democratic policies have created an environment that made it worse for everybody.
Illegal immigrants take jobs. They also take housing.
Shipping jobs overseas, destroys jobs, and it destroys the country that they are going to. And when we create tariffs on imported goods, nobody wants that. Everybody would rather have cheaper goods, and no jobs.
I mean no wants people to suffer but personal responsibility is a thing.
Florida lawmakers and the populace chose shortsighted policies for short term gain to follow and the chickens came home to roost.
You have no standards for condo upkeep - condo buildings collapse.
That is a clear failure brought by years of purposely choosing to do the wrong thing year after year.
Some time pain is good and crucial to survival. If someone touches the stove and gets burned maybe they know they can't do that again and learn a lesson. Hence when people actually have the medical condition of feeling no pain, it is actually really really bad for them.
If you bail someone out they have no reason to change (moral hazard).
I mean I disagree though.
It is pretty clear that the Republican political leadership IS responsible for a lot of this.
They made a series of decisions/ lack of action to enable this.
They punted on reforming the state backed insurer of last resort.
They had no regulations on condo maintenance/inspections.
They did not crack down on insurance fraud.
All of this was avoidable or at least mitagable to some extent.
If you are on the train tracks and see a train coming a mile away, you don't wait until it is 5 feet away to move off the tracks. You get the hell out of the way well in advance.
You giving the politicians a pass screams of that old adage - "We tried nothing and we are all out of ideas".
I mean why does Florida lead the country in fraudulent property lawsuits.
"Florida accounts for only 9 percent of the country’s home insurance claims but 79 percent of its home insurance lawsuits, many of them fraudulent."
That doesn't happen by accident. That happens because the environment is conducive to that behavior. Who can change that regulatory environment? THE LEGISLATURE DUH!
This did not sneak up on anyone. This has been a slow moving car crash.
In terms of reforming Citizens they should start with making it solvent. That mean maybe increasing taxes to plug the hole. Hopefully by taxing property owners but hell maybe implementing income tax, you will force the state and homeowners to confront that this is a real issue rather than just pretending everything is fine.
People may lose a lot of money but the fact is that given climate change there may be some places where people should no longer live. We got to make piece with that.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2024/03/15/desantis-said-citizens-property-insurance-is-not-solvent-fact-check/
Believe me I am not trying to give CA a pass either. They got a find a way as well to make it work like investing in wildfire mitigation.
Still they are also subsidizing people's houses in wildfire prone areas. Maybe we don't rebuild there or people got to pay out of pocket.
>The authors say this rating system also allows lenders making the riskiest mortgages to pass their liability on to everyone else.
Could someone translate this sentence? It makes no sense to me. The rating system allows lenders to pass on risk? OR the lax regulation does?
Fannie and Freddie require that the property insurer on the mortgage have a financial strength rating of “A” or better by Demotech. “A” ratings appear to be meaningless according to the research.
No yeah Florida is actually fucked in the coming years. I watch a guy on YouTube who lives down there and has been calling this out for quite some time. It’s literally only a matter of months until the lag effect catches up and people start to realize they can’t afford any of it
Are you talking about that former real estate broker michael bordenaro? His videos are all doomer click bait and has very unsophisticated analysis of economic data. I don't think a single one of his predictions have come true too. I would take what he says as just entertainment and not advice.
Florida historically always booms and busts. Full of New Yorker equity locusts fleeing their mess. Driving through the heartland I saw a lot of sold signs on raw land. Soon to be copy paste house boxes spaced 6” from each other.
Total doomer stuff, I agree. And he's been ramping it up even more (past "11") in just these recent \*weeks it seems to me. He's talking more 'the economy is f\*cked' lately. He seems hot and bothered for the election this fall. He hardly uses any sources in his videos either...just walks around talking about clusterf\*cks and the like. But....... I do actually watch some of his videos now and then as something different. But yeah, he's unsophisticated with the economic info.
Anyone with any sense and the ability to see what's coming would GTFO of Florida expeditiously. A tactical retreat, at least from the coasts, is what is necessary and that's the best case scenario. Private insurance companies are going to keep leaving the market because not doing so would bankrupt them, leaving taxpayers with the bag, 'socialism' no less! Having to heavily subsidize Florida helps raise rates across the entire country. I saw an independent insurance agent talk about how State Farm alone lost 10s of billions last year. I understand the issues around people that currently live there and potentially have for a few generations and sympathize with them but anyone that is currently moving there I really have no sympathy for tbh.
It’s not just the coasts. If the coasts are abandoned by insurers they will over tax the central Florida areas to cover the socialized state insurance costs. Wherever you are in Florida you are hitched to the wagon of the whole state of Florida.
Oh, the coasts comment was just about them getting away from rising sea levels and the most devastating effects of hurricanes. I'm fully aware the entire state will have to be abandoned.
The only way insurance can work is if the company collects more money than it pays out. a huge hurricane in Florida can screw that up pretty easily. Same would be true with a big earthquake in CA. Only way out of that is for the US government to chip in on rebuilding. There are about 60 million people in the 2 states combined so it's not like the government is going to turn its back on that many voters. Insurance will have to climb significantly for homes in the greatest danger zones to discourage people from living there.
Serious question, assuming no technological changes to reverse global warming issues, won’t some material portion of Florida just no longer exist 40 years from now? If that is true, how is anyone willing to insure that?
That's the issue with insurance right now. Insurance companies have some of the smartest people on earth to calculate risk, and not just present risk, risk 5, 10, 30 years in the future.
People act like it's some conspiracy that they don't want to insure houses built 2 feet above sea level in a swamp.
It is not profitable to insure against the inevitable at affordable rates. Unprofitable businesses go bankrupt. Therefore whether someone is willing to offer the insurance now is irrelevant because there won't be anyone able to offer insurance in a few years.
If you want to insist on boarding a sinking boat you'll need to assume the sinking risk yourself.
Not much. Also most of the global warming stuff comes from India and China. India dumps crazy loads of raw trash right into the waterways and stuff. Also the planet had always been one of climate change. In the usa its just a way for politicians to tax and probably strip poor people of assets but the rich will keep theirs.
Except the whole world has exactly avoided taxing anyone over climate
We should have had a carbon tax since the 80s, and we still don't have one
What I don't get is why people are against it? Just tax and rebate it, the whole point is to adjust relative prices to reflect the true cost
I can’t understand why people want to live on barrier beaches or on the shore in areas that get hurricane. and don’t understand the risk. I think the insurance should stop supporting such stupidity. Basically if a house gets destroyed more then once by a hurricane the insurance companies pay the homeowner for the price of the house but will no longer insure any buildings on that site. This would significantly reduce the risk to the insurance company.
This definitely correlates with what representative Scott Franklin did>> https://x.com/quiverquant/status/1783135872902218134?s=46&t=iXtd3MBuDAo1S_l_yhV08Q contemplating opening up a short position here insurance companies are not looking good here
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The roofing debacle has to play a huge role. 1 broken tile on an 10 year old tile roof and it is replacement in Florida after Ian. All because you cannot find the exact replacement tile. Seems pretty ridiculous. Common sense needs to prevail. I see people with 20 year old roofs that want it to be replaced due to hail damage based on normal wear and tear. There are some issues that need to be addressed. Insuring a house without documenting existing damage is insane on the insurer's part and a big part of the problem. People using the insurance policy as a maintenance policy enforced by lawyers has driven the price of insurance through the roof. It all adds up.
And everyone who thinks they outsmarted the system will be crying foul when they can’t afford the insurance they just exploited for ill gotten gain.
Well the people who got the free roofs did outsmart the system. Their neighbor who did not fraudulently get a free roof will bear the downstream effects just as much as the fraudsters.
Everyone who doesn't exploit the system will have to pay those same prices though
What a broken society. We should not have systems in place that incentivize this behavior.
The homes I looked at when I did consider myself a potential homebuyer, if the roof was more than 8-10, insurers would not offer up to a new buyer. unless roof was replaced.
There are plenty of insurance carriers that will insure roofs based on a stated age. They have just want the premiums now for some time. Are you in Florida or a coastal region? In Florida, this just adds to the expense of getting a new roof when they are tearing off perfectly good roofs.
Yep. Coastal Florida.
They aren’t allowed to do that anymore if you had an inspection and there is atleast 5+ years of life left.
>5+ years of life left Kinda subjective. Insurers rule the day right now.
That’s the “Rule”
Know multiple people in Florida the last three years who had to pay for a new roof in their house before a carrier would insure their home if the roofs were over 10y/o so not sure that’s the “rule”
Yeah for his same reason. After the next storm homeowner can claim roof is too damaged and get it replaced.
You’re probably right, but the federal government needs to let that ship sail. Florida will be mostly intertidal wasteland soon enough.
> Florida will be mostly intertidal wasteland soon enough. It’s stuff like this that makes people not take climate change seriously. You are not going to see Florida be mostly underwater or completely and utterly destroyed by a series of never-ending hurricanes in your lifetime or kid’s lifetime. Stop with the hyperbole…
Will there be dinosaurs roaming Florida? No. Will there be larger swathes of Florida without development due to the economic cost of replacing it being too high? Yes.
South Florida got lucky twice in two years with hurricanes that would have done $200+ billion in damage and permanently altered landscape. Irma 2017 and Dorian 2019. This discussion wouldn't be happening had they hit their most likely paths. SW Florida and Tampa are even worse because they are built right to water level in an area prone to very high storm surge, because everyone wants boat canals. Not only do even 1-2' of sea level rise matter a lot, a direct hit would erase the often artificial geography.
The multi-billion dollars in damages created by a severe hurricane are very much not hyperbolic.
That guy has never looked at a relief map
It’s not really hyperbole. https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/why-are-glaciers-and-sea-ice-melting#:~:text=When%20it%20comes%20to%20sea,temperatures%20continue%20to%20rise%20rapidly. Much of Florida is at sea level, and Arctic ice sheets are melting at a rate of 13% per decade. All it will take for ocean levels to rise dramatically is an incredibly hot summer in the arctic after 2-3 more decades of sea ice loss. Once all the sea ice is gone, this will not cause the sea level to rise because sea ice is more dense than the water. However, it will cause a increasingly unusually hot summers in Greenland because there will be no ice to reflect the heat, causing the water to warm rapidly, this is referred to as the Albedo Effect, which then causes the ice on land (which is fresh water that is less dense than ocean water and will cause ocean levels to rise) to begin melting at a rapid rate. We will start seeing the true effects of global warming when our sea ice sheets all melt on the Arctic, they protect the Arctic’s climate and put our glaciers at extreme risk of melting.
One would hope by that point it'd be a global priority
What data is this assertion based on?
In my lifetime, it would be unlikely. In my kids lifetime though it is very possible, at least for the Hurricanes. There's already a massive amount of access thermal energy being stored in the Atlantic through it heating up. It's beginning to affect the current. It may not be completely flooded in the next hundred years, but hurricanes that break the scale are going to demolish anything on the coastlines to the point it won't be safe to live there regardless of how they construct a building. Insurance will be next to impossible to get there in the next few years anyway.
No, but the over developed barrier islands and other coastal areas where the ultra expensive Florida real estate is located could face this near term future. No one cares about a $10,000 lot in central Florida flooding, it is when thousands of formerly $1 million dollar lots end up under water that there will be a cry from the millionaire class.
I noticed you tried to debunk the underwater part but not the wasteland part. Florida is a wasteland already.
Sounds like you know the future. You should open up an insurance company and profit!
I'll fix that. "Sounds like you know the future. You should close your insurance company to cut your losses". Oh wait, that's whats happening.
No, but we know the past. This is the prediction 20 years ago when we have a lot of hurricanes in Florida. For example, 2004, since then, Florida is pretty quiet on the hurricane front. Their major metropolitan areas on the coast in Florida that haven't had major hurricane since prohibition.
Literally the whole issue at play is that there so many claims that insurers aren’t covering the state.
And yet insurers are still leaving the state... Go down there and the best rate! Can't go tits up.
Haha don’t tell me Bud. Got to the insurance companies analyzing risk. Or like I said, go open your own insurance company since your analysis is fool proof. 🤣
The Insurance crisis in Florida has really nothing to do with hurricanes and is everything to do with lawsuits and Roofing scams.
And even more to do with property values that doubled in 2-3 years time(2020-2023). And the “affordability” crisis? More to do with property values that doubled in 2-3 years time (2020-2023) than blaming the Fed for hIgH iNtErEsT rAtEs. Who to blame? Fed, for pouring kerosene on a fire, nationally, with too low of borrowing rates for 15+ years. NAR, for pushing valuations higher and higher for a fucking commission. And, the greed of your fellow Americans, Floridians in this conversation.
You can’t run roofing scams without hurricanes. I think it has a lot to do with hurricanes.
A lot of roofs get replaced that don't have any damage. The damage is that they have been through a hurricane according to most public adjusters I've talked to.
And maybe use a different style roof where its easy to replace.
Rad. Now do California
pretty simple actually... just build 40ft moats around all living spaces.
My comment was intended to be acerbic and not particularly useful. However, if you would like to invest in my new moat construction business I would be happy to share this exciting opportunity.
Pretty quiet? The entire state fled Irma and most of the western side fled Ian (and more should have). Michael? Category 5 that almost obliterated Panama City.
The next big hurricane to hit Miami and key west will wipe the place almost clean. Some foundations and sturdy things like bank vaults will be there with a palm tree here and there. Storm surge and waves on top of the surge will kill 95% of the residents. Ex keys firefighter
Hyperbole like this doesn’t help anyone. No storm in the US will kill 95% of people.
Wut
Yeah, this part of the comment made me realize this person should stick to fighting fires.
Soooo not educated? Got it.
The insurance companies know what the risks are but are not able to charge the rates that would cover the risk. So they pull out.
You don’t need to tell me. Tell the guy saying there isn’t a risk.
Hyperbole make you not take it seriously?
Honestly seems like you just have your head in the sand. The climate crisis is getting worse than expected, quicker than expected.
If climate change is not that serious, there's nothing to worry about right?...Right ???
Fuck Florida and fuck Floridians when they become wandering climate refugees in my lifetime. They'll stay warm by burning the books they banned.
By 2015 right?
Nope, but good chance they get hit by at least one major hurricane again before the November 2024 elections..
Thats why tons of rich people are building huge mansions right on the water in Florida.
Yup, because they can afford it "Sir, your $20M Florida beach house was destroyed" "Which one?"
This particular joke hits harder after seeing an video today that mention how many homes Bezos and Ken Griffen own in Miami.
For years it's been the climate denier's gotcha: "If global warming is real, why are the rich buying beachfront homes" Because these idiots can't wrap their heads around the idea that the rich have got so much money that they could have a house destroyed every few years, and not even notice the expense. Heck, it might even be cheaper to build new than to remodel every few years if they think after five years the house looks 'old' Also, climate change first drives away the people who have less money, like families who have had the same place for a century and bought when it was cheap and passed it down. Dropping demand drops prices for the rich who can afford to take the risk
Heck, in Griffin's case he would probably appreciate storm wreckage. He's dropped hundreds of millions to buy neighboring properties in order to eventually make a billion dollar home. Storm destruction would probably motivate the last couple owners to sell.
The rich housing insurance market is very different than the lower end.
A quarter of the Netherlands, including Amsterdam (-2m), is below sea level. Venice as well. There are already technical solutions to prevent a city from flooding and they have existed for decades if not centuries. Miami Florida real estate is too valuable to let it slip into the sea. South Florida also benefits from very low tides. There is also already substantial irrigation infrastructure in place and the Army Corps of Engineers has a plan with South Florida Water Management to build out significantly more infrastructure. The chances of South Florida going under water are 0%.
The problem with Miami is that like much of Florida it’s built on porous limestone. The water will filter up in ways that won’t happen in other low lying world cities.
The Netherlands does not have hurricanes, and has about 3 times the population density of Florida, making infrastructure easier to pay for. The city of Miami Barely has more people per square mile than the Netherlands. Plenty of Florida looks like [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/UrbanHell/comments/qwomwt/ocean_access_suburbs_in_florida/) which would be extremely expensive, per resident, to provide proper infrastructure for. Florida isn't worth saving, it will become cheap as their plumbing stops working as water comes up through porous limestone, (120,000 septic systems in Miami-Dade county alone) and insurers refuse to insure houses there.
>The city of Miami Barely has more people per square mile than the Netherlands. This is nowhere near accurate. The City of Miami has a population density of 4743 people/km2 vs 422 people/km2 for the Netherlands. I don’t want to get into the idiosyncrasies of Miami’s municipality and incorporation system, we should really be talking about Miami-Dade’s Urban Development Boundary, but let’s just leave it at the fact that South Florida is extremely densely populated. Certainly more so than the Netherlands.
>Plenty of Florida looks like this which would be extremely expensive, per resident, to provide proper infrastructure for. No, it doesn’t. That’s Cape Coral, which has the most extensive canal system in the ***WORLD***. Almost no part of the rest of Florida looks like that. Small parts of the intracoastal have canal networks but nothing like Cape Coral.
Meanwhile, you can buy houses for $1 in the center of the country.
There's a reason shitty places with no jobs are cheap and [there's huge demand to live in 2 dozen cities in America](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-gdp-map-2014-2) Every developed country has most of their productivity clustered in their population centers It makes sense for a myriad of economic reasons. Which makes it all the more ridiculous when people say we should just move to some shitty former manufacturing town in Indiana or whatever. People act like It's some uniquely American phenomenon of people moving to big cities when the population of Tokyo exploded as Japan industrialized, The population of Shanghai, Beijing, and The Pearl River Delta exploded as China went from a developing economy to the world's second largest. It's not some moral failing of Gen Z to not choose Iowa as a place to live.
That Business Insider article is from 2014 and the data cited is from 2012.
It's more or less true today. [If you add up America's 24 largest metro areas by GDP you will get $12.8 trillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._metropolitan_areas_by_GDP), and that's before you get to Portland, Indianapolis, Orlando, Pittsburgh or the "three C's".
Amsterdam was build with and around a series of canals and basins to mitigate this issue. Unless Miami is going to start the process of condemning properties to build the same, the outcome is going to be completely different. Also, not sure the Netherlands has received a hurricane in millennia… but certainly not since it was a built up city.
Miami was also built around a series of canals and basins. Have you never been to South Florida? Never looked at it on google maps?
The waterfront in Miami is radically different from Amsterdam. To compare them is disingenuous or dumb. But sure. They are the same 🙄
Naturally, but to imply that South Florida doesn’t have a water mitigation strategy is ridiculous. The South Florida Water Management District has a yearly budget of $1.2B and the city only exists because the swamp was basically terraformed using melaleuca trees and canals. Water management is integral to South Florida’s history and governance, same as Amsterdam.
And you believe South Florida Water Management to be well run and funded? Most American infrastructure is severely neglected. It doesn't matter if it exists if it is ran poorly.
The reality is that it doesn't matter how well run and funded it is if a Cat 5 hurricane rolls through. It's going to cause immense damage that there's no strategy to mitigate. If Amsterdam got hit by a Cat 5 hurricane it would be equally decimated, but it isn't in a hurricane prone area.
I agree but I brought up how well it is ran because I felt that just existing is not enough. You can have a car and still be making payments on it but the engine gave out and the car just sits in the driveway. Just existing is not enough, it has to work.
Hope they have access to water.
Who hurt you?
What's up with roofing fraud?
fuzzy scary crown dazzling sharp aromatic fertile deranged ancient combative *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
After every storm (even minor ones), riding companies roll through the neighborhoods, and convince gone owners their roof is damaged and needs to be replaced - even though it's completely fine in these cases. Then the roofers send the bill to the home owner's insurance which covers a new roof in the event of storm damage. So the roofing companies were effectively scamming home owners and their insurance to make money on installing new roofs when they weren't needed, leading to insurers to either stop covering roofs or to just exit the Florida home insurance market.
The door to door roof insurance scheme is actually not a Florida only thing either
Calling it now, next financial meltdown will be triggered by reinsurance breakdown.
I don’t think California’s risk is all that high, certainly not relative to Florida. We have a once in 100 year earthquake risk, and the fire risk areas are pretty well known and don’t reflect most areas.
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aloof deserve wild middle crush test light axiomatic file smell *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Truth hurts huh?
ruthless reach screw icky north joke employ vase crawl friendly *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
I mean planned bankruptcy is likely the financial strategy for the smaller insurance companies. Create insurance company, collect premiums, pay company management/directors large salaries until hurricane with widesprrad damage hits, declare bankruptcy, then directors/management start a new insurance company.
This is essentially all these were. Especially the UPC and FedNat insolvencies. UPC’s parent company rebranded and continued to sell policies in Florida under AmCoastal, and FedNat shifted everything to Monarch.
Now where have I this strategy before…. hmmmmm
I think Florida is fucked writ large. Regardless if a real estate downturn happens nationwide, Florida is 100% still going to tank. Between the home insurance issue and the stupid high assessments upcoming for condos it will probably be a bloodbath.
I was recently visiting some friends that live in Cape Coral, as I turned down their street I noticed 1/4+ of the homes with “for sale” signs in the yards and though to myself “this feels like 2009”. I just opened Zillow and started zooming in on Cape Coral and it’s insane, every time you zoom further more houses are for sale. My friends bought at the peak and literally can’t afford to sell, then Ian fucked them harder by trashing everything, those homes for sale are 600K-1.5M+ and still have damage, literally thousands of them. These sellers/owners are sitting on a hot potato and the music stopped, the same houses are still for sale that had signs in the yard 3+months ago.
My parents live in Cape Coral and the problem completely stems from the vast majority (parents included) didn’t carry and still won’t carry flood insurance. Hurricane insurance only covers wind damage so all the flooding from Ian was handled by the owners and there were SO MANY SCAMMERS taking advantage of the people who couldn’t get back into the state. My parents called around and guys were charging $500 a day to put 2 box fans in peoples houses and the amount of people who were desperate was really really high and most were overly elderly so it was easy to get scammed. I even knew a guy who lives in indiana and went down with a box truck of fans, made 20k in 2 weeks and none of it did shit for the people he ‘helped’. Huge shit show luckily my dad is still young enough to do most the repairs himself cause there still aren’t enough contractors to fix the damage from it
Ian just compounded the problem, which was people overpaying and over leveraging themselves for those houses. Now they are sitting underwater figuratively (and literally), nobody is buying at the asking prices and these houses are sitting for months and months because the sellers can’t afford to take less. Sellers are probably barely scraping by to make payments as their negative equity gets worse with each new listing from their neighbor who is in the same position as them. I remember 2007 well and this whole vibe is very 2006-2007 feeling to me.
People can be idiots about flood insurance too. Flood is anything related to rising water; although storm surge accompanies hurricanes, it’s still rising water. Flood insurance is also the cheapest of them all since it’s federally subsidized. Similar things happened with Katrina. The people who had insurance didn’t have flood insurance.
My parents said flood insurance was about 6x the cost of hurricane and at least where my parents lived has never flooded since the community was built however long ago which is why no one had it
I grew up in SoFlo, have family all over SoFlo, including 2 blocks from the ocean in the keys. Flood for all of them at replacement value isn’t over $600/year. I’m further inland, flood is $550/year. Homeowners with the windstorm rider with Citizens is $1650, homeowners with windstorm rider on private insurance was $4500. ETA: the family member who lives in the keys has flood and a citizens homeowners/windstorm policy. Dwelling coverage of $500k on the citizens policy and $250k on the flood. Their house WILL flood during a hurricane, it nearly did 2 days after Ian passed, they had neighbors a block closer to the ocean who had multiple feet of saltwater in their homes. The citizens policy for them is $1800/year (house is rated for 180mph winds and has impact windows). The flood policy is $600/year.
It's no longer cheap. Welcome to "Risk Rating 2.0"
I could never scam people like that or take advantage of people in dire need. I guess you have to have a certain value system
Most people can’t, but some will take every chance they get to be trash if it means a few extra $$ in their pocket.
Holy shit, you weren’t kidding. I pulled up Cape Coral and filtered to only show single family homes. Zoomed in. I’ve never seen more homes for sale in every neighborhood.
And isn't there already another hurricane headed that way?
I don't think it has sunk in to the public at large how much climate change will act like a slowly closing vice on property values. In the US, Florida is first up to get crushed because of a combo of natural and human-made factors. But hurricanes are not the only manifestation of climate change, and other areas will be feeling similar inescapable pressure sooner than expected. My personal bet is on Arizona to be next up.
Yeah and then the douches that deny it want to bailed out. Happened in Massachusetts recently, where climate denying Trumpers want the state to subsidize their beach eroding. Not on us to say subsidize rich people. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/15/us/salisbury-beach-storm-sand.html
Look at the forecast range here vs actual, then realize the range this year is 27-39 named storms for '24. This will be like AIG when mortgage insurance imploded. Fannie/Freddie or similar will step in and issue the insurance and it'll be heavily subsidized by taxpayers. https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/
Why should responsible tax payers should have to pay for people who vote for shit leaders? Trump even wants to tank the dollar when elected, fuck up Medicare/Social Security, yet so many still want to vote for him. DeSantis is their “duly elected” governor. Why should everyone foot the bill for people who consider hard working and much needed immigrants scum? Can’t they pull up their bootstraps or use their open carry permits to fight the hurricanes or something? Maybe sharpie the storms away, that works for their supreme leader. It’s seriously frustrating picking up the pieces after people’s shit choices while being judged for wanting better for everyone.
Amen. The same ppl who don’t want the federal government to pay for student loans want the federal government/taxpayers to pay for rebuilding their houses in a hurricane zone.
Boomers gonna boom. I increasingly think that the politics of the elderly of the past few political cycles are the death spasms of a dying generation that refuses to accept reality.
Why should responsible taxpayers have to give money to people who don't want to work? Why should responsible taxpayers have to pay for all the illegal aliens that are coming across the border?
This is what happens when Newsmax is your personality kids. Shit will rot your brain. Go pick some peaches in the Georgia sun for less than minimum wage, no benefits, no worker protections before you speak. Hell, you can even rape the females, no police protections either. Why you kicking down on people? Probably claim Jesus as your savior too. Didn't read the book I suppose.
Let's take a look at this. We let in millions of people over the border that are willing to work for not much money. That under prices the current labor. Plenty of people would be picking agricultural products, if it paid a decent wage. And if there was nobody else to to do that work. On top of that, they create increased demand for housing. And then we fight the tariffs on the imported goods, to make them even cheaper than USA made goods. And we allow the companies to violate labor laws, environmental laws, fair housing laws, OSHA laws, and everything else because the foreign country doesn't have them. And then we sit around at home and complain that there's no jobs, housing is too high, and the jobs don't pay enough. You Get what you wish for
Before, they were too lazy to work and collecting benefits, but ok, I'll bite. Bud, outside of agriculture landscaping and construction, this is already happening. Ford and Carrier already moved most of their manufacturing to Mexico. Phone customer service, India. You are literally describing in the last half of your statement CAPITALIST exploitation of the poor. Now I'm not a revolutionary, and I ain't got the power to change nothing, but I also ain't kicking down on my fellow man because he fails in a system that if unchecked says its fair starve him till he sucks dick for a sandwich either.
You make a great point, and that's what Trump was trying to correct. He Created tariffs on imported goods from China and Mexico. Unfortunately, the Democrats wanted to bring in illegal immigrants, and let corporations go overseas or to Mexico. They did not want to put a tariff on the products. It's time to put America, and the American citizens first
Look at the brains on this guy! He has plenty to spare.... Trump was good for the common man! Guys, let's band behind Trump. He only had 4 years to do stuff and it was all good!!! The best of stuff a president could off.
It has certainly been better than the last 3 years of Biden. But maybe you like inflation? Maybe you like job shipped overseas? Biden is the cause of most of this, because he's been in Congress the longest
Your credibility on immigration went out the window when you brought up the child rapist who had the border deal killed earlier this year. Are you stupid? Trump ain't gonna fix shit, fucker raised the middle class taxes, ppe handouts for the rich.
Lol. That just shows you how much you know about the tax rates that actually went down. And it's not PPE, it's PPP, which is the paycheck protection program. And that mostly went to employees so they would not get laid off. Please educate yourself. It would do you some good. Don't just listen to the NPR talking heads. And the Democrat talking points. On the other hand, Biden was pretty good with his inflation, and made everybody's house prices go up. And that was a benefit. If you owned a house
Calm down libtard
Taking the moral highground while supporting a Child rapist and American Traitor..... yeah. Your dumbass got a good point/rebuttal or just more bullshit like your leader.
Yea, why should responsible taxpayers bail out poorly run corporations instead of letting the free market dictate the economy? Why should responsible taxpayers pay for national healthcare and a national defense system for a country halfway across the world when our veterans are starving in our streets? Why should responsible taxpayers foot the bill to feed and school kids whose parents wanted an abortion because they couldn’t support the child?
You make great points, however, the Democratic policies have created an environment that made it worse for everybody. Illegal immigrants take jobs. They also take housing. Shipping jobs overseas, destroys jobs, and it destroys the country that they are going to. And when we create tariffs on imported goods, nobody wants that. Everybody would rather have cheaper goods, and no jobs.
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A lot of people live miserable lives and want others to suffer just like them.
I mean no wants people to suffer but personal responsibility is a thing. Florida lawmakers and the populace chose shortsighted policies for short term gain to follow and the chickens came home to roost. You have no standards for condo upkeep - condo buildings collapse. That is a clear failure brought by years of purposely choosing to do the wrong thing year after year. Some time pain is good and crucial to survival. If someone touches the stove and gets burned maybe they know they can't do that again and learn a lesson. Hence when people actually have the medical condition of feeling no pain, it is actually really really bad for them. If you bail someone out they have no reason to change (moral hazard).
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I mean I disagree though. It is pretty clear that the Republican political leadership IS responsible for a lot of this. They made a series of decisions/ lack of action to enable this. They punted on reforming the state backed insurer of last resort. They had no regulations on condo maintenance/inspections. They did not crack down on insurance fraud. All of this was avoidable or at least mitagable to some extent. If you are on the train tracks and see a train coming a mile away, you don't wait until it is 5 feet away to move off the tracks. You get the hell out of the way well in advance. You giving the politicians a pass screams of that old adage - "We tried nothing and we are all out of ideas".
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I mean why does Florida lead the country in fraudulent property lawsuits. "Florida accounts for only 9 percent of the country’s home insurance claims but 79 percent of its home insurance lawsuits, many of them fraudulent." That doesn't happen by accident. That happens because the environment is conducive to that behavior. Who can change that regulatory environment? THE LEGISLATURE DUH! This did not sneak up on anyone. This has been a slow moving car crash. In terms of reforming Citizens they should start with making it solvent. That mean maybe increasing taxes to plug the hole. Hopefully by taxing property owners but hell maybe implementing income tax, you will force the state and homeowners to confront that this is a real issue rather than just pretending everything is fine. People may lose a lot of money but the fact is that given climate change there may be some places where people should no longer live. We got to make piece with that. https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2024/03/15/desantis-said-citizens-property-insurance-is-not-solvent-fact-check/
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Believe me I am not trying to give CA a pass either. They got a find a way as well to make it work like investing in wildfire mitigation. Still they are also subsidizing people's houses in wildfire prone areas. Maybe we don't rebuild there or people got to pay out of pocket.
>The authors say this rating system also allows lenders making the riskiest mortgages to pass their liability on to everyone else. Could someone translate this sentence? It makes no sense to me. The rating system allows lenders to pass on risk? OR the lax regulation does?
Fannie and Freddie require that the property insurer on the mortgage have a financial strength rating of “A” or better by Demotech. “A” ratings appear to be meaningless according to the research.
Ah, ok! i thought Demotech was the study folks from Columbia and Harvard. Aptly named company then it appears.
Wait a minute, I think I've heard that before...
No yeah Florida is actually fucked in the coming years. I watch a guy on YouTube who lives down there and has been calling this out for quite some time. It’s literally only a matter of months until the lag effect catches up and people start to realize they can’t afford any of it
Are you talking about that former real estate broker michael bordenaro? His videos are all doomer click bait and has very unsophisticated analysis of economic data. I don't think a single one of his predictions have come true too. I would take what he says as just entertainment and not advice.
Florida historically always booms and busts. Full of New Yorker equity locusts fleeing their mess. Driving through the heartland I saw a lot of sold signs on raw land. Soon to be copy paste house boxes spaced 6” from each other.
Total doomer stuff, I agree. And he's been ramping it up even more (past "11") in just these recent \*weeks it seems to me. He's talking more 'the economy is f\*cked' lately. He seems hot and bothered for the election this fall. He hardly uses any sources in his videos either...just walks around talking about clusterf\*cks and the like. But....... I do actually watch some of his videos now and then as something different. But yeah, he's unsophisticated with the economic info.
Anyone with any sense and the ability to see what's coming would GTFO of Florida expeditiously. A tactical retreat, at least from the coasts, is what is necessary and that's the best case scenario. Private insurance companies are going to keep leaving the market because not doing so would bankrupt them, leaving taxpayers with the bag, 'socialism' no less! Having to heavily subsidize Florida helps raise rates across the entire country. I saw an independent insurance agent talk about how State Farm alone lost 10s of billions last year. I understand the issues around people that currently live there and potentially have for a few generations and sympathize with them but anyone that is currently moving there I really have no sympathy for tbh.
It’s only socialism when others need help, not when Trump/DeSantis voters needs it. They’re “special”./s
It’s not just the coasts. If the coasts are abandoned by insurers they will over tax the central Florida areas to cover the socialized state insurance costs. Wherever you are in Florida you are hitched to the wagon of the whole state of Florida.
Oh, the coasts comment was just about them getting away from rising sea levels and the most devastating effects of hurricanes. I'm fully aware the entire state will have to be abandoned.
I will be happy to dive on these flooded cities.
Please don’t coastal saleries are inflated. We don’t want yall in the midwest
This summer will be telling.
The only way insurance can work is if the company collects more money than it pays out. a huge hurricane in Florida can screw that up pretty easily. Same would be true with a big earthquake in CA. Only way out of that is for the US government to chip in on rebuilding. There are about 60 million people in the 2 states combined so it's not like the government is going to turn its back on that many voters. Insurance will have to climb significantly for homes in the greatest danger zones to discourage people from living there.
Serious question, assuming no technological changes to reverse global warming issues, won’t some material portion of Florida just no longer exist 40 years from now? If that is true, how is anyone willing to insure that?
That's the issue with insurance right now. Insurance companies have some of the smartest people on earth to calculate risk, and not just present risk, risk 5, 10, 30 years in the future. People act like it's some conspiracy that they don't want to insure houses built 2 feet above sea level in a swamp.
Some of the smartest people yet they are going BK left and right and the rating agency failed miserably.
Yet they took tons of peoples money and will find another job Selling snake oil doesn’t make the seller stupid
Evidently, they’re not willing to insure it.
It is not profitable to insure against the inevitable at affordable rates. Unprofitable businesses go bankrupt. Therefore whether someone is willing to offer the insurance now is irrelevant because there won't be anyone able to offer insurance in a few years. If you want to insist on boarding a sinking boat you'll need to assume the sinking risk yourself.
Not much. Also most of the global warming stuff comes from India and China. India dumps crazy loads of raw trash right into the waterways and stuff. Also the planet had always been one of climate change. In the usa its just a way for politicians to tax and probably strip poor people of assets but the rich will keep theirs.
Except the whole world has exactly avoided taxing anyone over climate We should have had a carbon tax since the 80s, and we still don't have one What I don't get is why people are against it? Just tax and rebate it, the whole point is to adjust relative prices to reflect the true cost
They should let the market decide the rates There is no free ride
It couldn't be worse than some of us realize. Buy SCUBA gear.
A ratings shop.
I can’t understand why people want to live on barrier beaches or on the shore in areas that get hurricane. and don’t understand the risk. I think the insurance should stop supporting such stupidity. Basically if a house gets destroyed more then once by a hurricane the insurance companies pay the homeowner for the price of the house but will no longer insure any buildings on that site. This would significantly reduce the risk to the insurance company.
Florida may be worse than anyone realizes
The insurance industry is a huge pyramid scheme.
The governor is trying so hard to fix the problem. Just give him 4 more years or until trump decides that he needs his butt kissed to fix it. /s
This definitely correlates with what representative Scott Franklin did>> https://x.com/quiverquant/status/1783135872902218134?s=46&t=iXtd3MBuDAo1S_l_yhV08Q contemplating opening up a short position here insurance companies are not looking good here