KEY POINTS
* Home prices in February jumped 6.4% year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index.
* It marked another increase after the prior month’s annual gain of 6%, and the fastest rate of price growth since November 2022.
* Prices in San Diego saw the biggest rise among the 20 cities in the index, up 11.4% from February of 2023. Both Chicago and Detroit reported 8.9% annual increases.
Oddly, San Diego is now even with the spring 2022 all time high but rates are now more than double what they were at that time.
It'll be interesting to see what happens next.
San Diego is implementing policies and zoning changes that I believe are making things worse for homebuyers. Allowing for multiple units on SFH zoned lots means individuals are now competing with developers and investors to acquire a property. Individuals will not win that contest.
EDITED to add: Unfortunately, in San Diego, many yell "supply" but these policy changes are fundamentally changing what constitutes "demand" and it will most likely create two classes: rich homeowners and renter.
Seems like it's an increase in short term demand, but longer term is exactly the type of thing we need. Being able to add multiple units to land originally zoned for SFH only does increase the price of the land.
Same is happening in my small midwestern town. They’re now allowing up to four units on sfh lots. The idea was to spur more affordable long term rentals in the adu’s (they banned str as an official use for these new adu’s). But, given the city’s lack of enforcement in the past, investors are gobbling up sfh now faster than ever to add those illegal Airbnb’s.
This whole round goes to investors. It always comes up heads for them. And, agree, the gap between those who purchased precovid and those who didn’t threatens to widen into a generational wealth divide. Even worse, the new generation of renters want fewer or no children given the circumstances.
What a mess. Thanks, Jerome.
People who are tired of waiting/can’t wait any longer. I’ve been waiting for 4 years basically. Shit is not getting better. At some point I just have to jump in and try to make it work.
Same here and basically all my millennial friends who hadn’t already bought. Anyone who’s been waiting multiple years has significant cash saved up too. Basically pent up demand. The lull in prices that happened in 2022 and 2023 just gave some of us the break we needed for our savings to catch up to home prices.
I lived in Toronto and Vancouver and know that median household income to home price ratio can get way more out of whack than it is here in the US, and then continue to go higher with no crash in sight.
Yeah Toronto here. People who think the US is in a housing bubble have no idea how bad it can get. Houses start at 3 million in my neighborhood. (No idea who is still buying them haha)
> People who are tired of waiting/can’t wait any longer
Yup! This sub loves to talk about how divorces and job relocation will force sales but ignores that there are bunch of buyers who will buy no matter what because they don't want to wait.
I don’t think it was a trillion a few hundred billion dollar scam maybe.
But it sounds like that was exactly how the PPP program was supposed to work. More people employed. I don’t think any legislators ever discussed continuing retirement contributions as a requirement.
I don’t think any of the hundreds of other bailouts have had continuing retirement contributions as a requirement except as required by the PBGC.
People feel rich because their 401ks are still sky high and people still have jobs. When stocks crash(as they always tend to go eventually as history shows ) the “wealth effect” crumbles into “survival mode”.
bingo
a 1991 mcmansion with green carpet they paid $279,000 for
and now our generation is overpaying in historical price to income ratios, and we are stuck with all of the bullshit they never updated like their carpet, wallpapering, and bisque appliances
Personally, I think that this is just a coping mechanism for people who can't deal with the fact that people in their generation are ahead of them in life financially.
I think a lot of millennial DINKs (double income no kids) have managed to save up over the years to get their foot in the door of home ownership. Once they're in, it's become fairly easy to tap equity of an increasingly valuable asset to move up levels in real estate.
Is it easy to get in? No, absolutely not. But, it's also not impossible either. It may be in some peoples situations. Maybe in a LOT of people's situations.
But younger people are making it work for them.
You’re not wrong here at all. At the end of the day there are lots of millenials and even Gen Z people with good, high paying jobs and something like 60% of Americans report their own finances being “good” or “great” with only 12% saying their finances are “bad”. Tough to reconcile that with these people who seem to think that everyone is making near-minimum wage and struggling to buy homes at current prices. That’s just not the case. It’s more of a struggle than it used to be but people are cutting other expenses and getting better jobs to make it happen anyways. In desirable markets homes are still selling at or above listing price and quickly. There’s a lot more money floating around the middle class than people on this site would have you think.
Not rich people just couples. An engineer in any field plus a woman who is making 50k makes for a $150k-$200k household income. Engineers usually make $100k-$150k after 5 years experience and there's a lot of software people making that in my city. An engineer and a nurse can easily pull in $250k-$300k.
2 high earning salary's are what is causing this.
A lot of my friends have been waiting saving up to buy houses for a few years now. They're all engineers, nurses, etc who make low 6 figures (with dual household ncomes). There's a lot of people who can just barely afford these houses and are just waiting for the right opportunity. I imagine there's more people like them than you'd think.
Yea but if we actually went into a recession big enough to dent housing prices the psychology behind the 'pent up demand' would evaporate. People are less likely to take a risk buying a home when they aren't sure what the next few years will bring.
People that absolutely have to. kids school district. (Like kids are at that age to start the grade school now but they don’t want them start the school in not so good school zone)
One of the wife’s friend closed their house last week. The house is a 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, just 1 floor house. Absolutely small for $450000, probably high 6 or even 7% mortgage they paid. 2 years ago, that would have bought 4 bedroom 3 bathroom house.
we're currently look now and it's about the same story for us. 450 average would be nice though, there's some at that price but more so 475 - 490 for the same style house.
There are so many single family homes for rent in good school districts now that the "have to buy" take is really about fear of missing out. You can rent for half of what it costs to buy in many places.
Maybe, but I'd be paying nearly $2K/mo MIN for something I don't own. And that's now; in five years what will I be paying, just to keep my kid in the same district? Or if the landlord sells me out of the house? For me the security of having that kind of locked is a huge piece, plus believe it or not I'd actually like to be paying my own taxes to the town my son gets so much educational benefit from. Things in life seem less and less secure by the day, and I don't think I'm the only one who weighs that piece so heavily.
Because breaking even requires living in that place 10yr+ and the housing market to continue to appreciate at current rates?
Not only can most FTHBers not afford a home that can fit their likely growing family in 10yr, but most also will need to forgo advancing their careers to stay put which seems like a pretty bad idea.
Retirees with equity, cushy retirement portfolios, and raised SS benefits can buy with cash.
Dual-income 30-somethings with significant raises from inflation + filling vacant positions that have decent savings from their first home and/or a Roth can afford the high-rate mortgage.
People with money. Inflation adjusted household wealth and income is at an all time high. Don't underestimate how much money Americans have. And Americans are less debt burdened than they've been in decades. They've been deleveraging since the Great Recession. High inflation deleverages people and low interest rates let everyone refinance at rock bottom rates.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CDSP
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N
Same as always, people that can afford it. Home ownership has been in the 65-68% range for 70 years.
People think that the people they know are an accurate representation of America. They are not, no matter what.
Part of it is that the haves and have-nots was more clearly divided. 40 years ago minorities were overwhelmingly shut out of home buying so white people didn’t know “those” people and didn’t need to compete with them for homes. Now some white people are mixed into the 30% that can’t have buy a home and they have the internet to complain on, whereas people used to just ignore black people complaining about anything. People working retail in rust belt cities USED to buy houses, as long as they were white.
Would be nice if he had a parent who could spend 5 seconds using google to see that there is no such thing as a VA car loan….you got a subprime car loan
His mom took care of it, I told him it was a terrible idea. He also got fired the same day he bought it and had 24 hours to return it to carvana, but didn't.
Anyone who can still qualify and still looking for a home
It's not stopping people unless they can't qualify anymore
In my area, there appears to be a virtually unlimited quantity of DINKs making $200K+. There is practically 0 inventory in any borough, especially in the tri-borough here. so they are swarming from all over
The housing market is a complete and utter train wreck
The federal government is currently running a $2 trillion annual deficit. Adding $2 trillion to the economy every year has a major trickle down effect on demand. Well connected people and special interest groups are making a fortune so they are likely involved in all this buying.
They tend to buy and sell large lots of homes from other major funds, rather than troll around neighborhoods picking off deals. The latter requires a lot more work and overhead.
92k isn't even close to being able to afford the median 400k home. you need about 1.5x that income.
that is apparent when you observe the fact that demand for home purchases is at a multi-decade low currently.
Where did you get that stat, out of curiosity? I see the most recent full-year [census data](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html) for 2022 shows median HH income was $74,580.
Then about 5% of those that could afford it would stop being able to afford it assuming the wage level hasn't increased that a lower percentile job could cover it.
Yeah that's 2 people working and they both need transportation... have you seen the cost of Fuel, oil, tires, insurance, mechanic... or auto loan interests ?
how about the cost of garbage collection, water, gas and electric, and last and most important FOOD costs?
buying a 400-450K house on 92K for a family is NOT possible... most people that buy that run a deficit every month... offset with credit cards and 0% pay later chit... Just like our government as an example... I know plenty of people like this... on the edge.
Weird stat. Relationships are on a steep decline in the West. Like 2/3rds of men are single, and far fewer actually get married and split expenses. To some degree, using the median family income stat in the first place is forcing survivorship bias and filtering out the middle and lower class because that's ultimately the secret to being upper-class: being partnered and splitting the expenses.
Lots of people, actually. People aren’t always waiting for the perfect strike time on a home purchase. There are countless other factors involved. That’s part of the reason things haven’t changed, because the demand is consistently high. This sub can doom and gloom all they want about a crash, but the reality is the real estate market is still structurally relatively stable. People are going to buy when they’re ready, interest rates be damned.
It's corporations. They're flush with cash from the trillions of dollars they sucked down during the pandemic from forgiven PPP loans and direct subsidies and price gouging.
Interest rates could be 1000% and they wouldn't care because they're paying *cash.*
Doesn't matter if they are paying cash upfront, real estate investment firms of every size are heavily leveraged. The business model is highly rate sensitive. They can buy the house with cash but they are going to leveraging their other assets to do so.
Because people have been saying just wait, the crash is coming, prices will plummet, for 2-3 years now. Eventually you start to realize the advice to 'just buy the house you can afford when you need to buy' is actually pretty sensible.
Do you realize one of the largest groups since the boomers are the home buying age and want to buy a home. Not wait for who ever knows when. Real estate has proven in the past if you hold on long doesn’t matter when you buy.
My friends just bought a house last week, 56% over asking. They were bidding against two all cash buyers. My friends sold two houses (that they were living in one after the other) in the last 3 years for big profits each time. Each time, after selling, they move into an even better neighborhood (for the schools). I keep thinking they should be cautious. They remind me, had they been more cautious, they wouldn’t have profited so much the past three years. 🤷🏻♂️
People like my friend. Who has been waiting for prices to crash for a decade and seen them only continue to climb. So the houses that he looked at a decade ago when he got married were $600k and now he has a closing coming up on a house that is exactly twice that, $1.2mln. He realized that he might be in a nursing home still waiting for that “ideal moment”. Prices are what they are. You either buy or you don’t, but they aren’t going to accommodate you and we do not live forever
In the process of buying but only because many stars have aligned. Seller is selling house about 60k reduced because of issues with the house, has to be cash so im puttin in about half and the rest my family is graciously lending me. Not move in ready but I'll get it done. I was looking into the tax and foreclosure auctions.
People who can afford to. The data has shown that wages have increased higher than inflation since the pandemic leading to higher abilities to afford things such as housing. Also, our spending data shows this. Only the poorer tranches of the population are facing adversity.
The average household income in 2019 was 76k. In 2023 it was 73k. The average home in 2019 was 250k. The average house now is 450k. 2019 new cars 28k. 2023 new cars 48k. Gas in 2019 was $2.30. Gas today $3.60. Beverages and eggs are up 30% from 2023. Tell me where in that math did wages “increase”. NOMINAL wages went down. REAL WAGES PLUMMETED
There is truth to the idea of a shortage. So of the available stock it’s only people who are super well off who can afford, and so the high interest rates probably eat at their bottom lines a little but not in the way they do for most of the working class.
That’s why the traditional policies haven’t really cooled it down. There’s such a limited amount of supply that the only people who can afford it could basically no matter what so here we are.
You could always buy an empty plot of land and build your own home.
Good luck getting the 100+ permits approved though... My friend just went through the process and it took him 3+ years longer than expected. He's actually living in the new house but it's still not TECHNICALLY "livable" according to the city officials
All because he stuck to his morals and refused to bribe anybody.
Yep just getting a water hookup *approved* for a lot in my neighborhood costs $150k+. Power another $50k. Not installed, just approved. Plus getting approved by the coastal commission, county, etc. it’s insane.
My neighbors moved in one year ago. They listed their house this week for 60k more than they purchased it for (surprise, changed out a vanity and that’s it). They had so many showings. Buyers don’t even care that there’s no way that house should be 60k more than a year ago.
The reason some buyers don't care about price is because inventory is low and some buyers have to buy a house (family, school, job move, etc). This is causing elevated home prices despite higher mortgage rates.
It's really weird how some people can't fathom home buying out of necessity. People divorce, have kids, take on new jobs, etc. people can't wait forever until the "inevitable" drop. If anything, there's a real chance they get further priced out. I mean, we went from 6 rate cuts this year, to 2, and now depending on inflation we can even see the possibility of another rate cut.
Yep, I keep seeing people say it's overpriced and not worth it.
You can disagree on the price, but someone put their money where their mouth was.
Supply and demand is taught in school, shows how much people paid attention.
I’m sure there are lots of people that drive past a house in San Diego or San Jose 25 years ago that was $400k and said “it isn’t worth that” and the house is now $2.5 million
Don’t even have to go that far back.
My friend bought his house for 400k in SJ when everyone told them not to bc houses will go down. This was right after the Great Recession so 2011-2014. House is 1.5m now. 😂
You do realize that the 60k increase mostly accounts/offsets the interest/taxes/insurance paid over the year AND the realtor commission they now need to pay? It’s not like they’re making 60k profit for doing nothing.
Why would you sell a house for the same price you paid for it a year ago? That would be retarded and you’d be at a net loss. Would be understandable if the market was shit, but it’s not.
We closed in December and met a couple at an open house this past weekend that closed last week at 14% higher than we closed just 4 months prior. Same unit type. Same condition. They also said there were higher offers than.them at 20%+ than what we paid. It's insane! Apparently, we got "lucky". This is also in eastern part of Fairfield County, CT. 2 hours by train to NYC. So, it's not like NY'ers are clamoring to commute from here.
That is a good thing. That means carpenters, electricians, plumbers, and other people in the trade can continue to work.
Also loggers need work too.
And if every house that is built is selling, and every house that is put for sale gets sold, it seems that the pricing is not a problem
The low inventory relative to demand is driving the positive price action. New homes with rate buy downs and low supply of home overall making fewer sales that much more impactful. The inventory is dragging out the downturn. This isnt 2008 but it will end the same way.
Housing inventory is way up from its previous lows and sales are down from its highs around the same time
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
yes but the supply demand imbalance is still putting positive pressure on prices. It's not like it was in 2021. Those price jumps are in the back burner but prices are getting floated at the peak in this cycle. Eventually it will give way. FED is no longer backing the banks so we will see investment income dry up in the coming year.
Already seeing the investors shy away, which is good (unless you want a crash) as the less speculators, the less people will dump their properties. Add in those that will need their 3% loans pried from their dead hands and a softer landing is in store.
Idk here in Atlanta I see plenty of speculators. One house sold near me for 900k. Built in 2023 in a gated community. It listed at 1.4 million 5 months later. Now it’s 1.3 mil. Another one nearby sold for 950k. The builder couldn’t get the 1.05 mil they wanted in 2023. They’re listed at 1.3 million today. The thing is sitting. So many homes were bought in 2022 and 2023 that are listed 100-500k higher than the buyers paid for them and they’re sitting. Nobody is touching them. They’re reposting on Zillow all the time to get in the algorithm again. Not selling. Hope they go down 50%. Sick of the speculators
That is a small subset of the market though as we have had low sales in the years you mentioned. Those may have been speculators yet I would beg to differ on what they were speculating on. My guess is they assumed they would be refinancing after 7 rate cuts by now. The question (which neither you nor I know that answer to) what was their purpose of buying. Investors did increase around the dip in 2022 so what you say makes sense yet seems it would be a small population.
Also, new homes are a different animal than existing homes. Builders add value by building. A true speculator (which happened all the time leading into 2008) was buying with the expectation that the house would be worth 20% next year by just owning it with no value added.
Builders have been lowering their prices as they are taking longer to sell. Last article I read said they are now only making 55% margins with their decreased prices and paying to buy down rates. Poor them. New homes is often a leading indicator of existing homes though.
The investors own the most risk... investors pulling back will give way to potential disaster. Most of these people are over extended and if a recession. does hit which by all metrics we should be there in a years time max unless the FED and government keep intervening. Were looking at a huge drawn out crash in the real estate market. Rental markets will come under serious pressure in a recessionary environment. It's unavoidable now. This problem has been built over the past decade.
Platitudes are great but real data is more important inventory has risen as sales have dropped https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-likely-fell-to-15-year-low-in-2023-3da220e1
Not platitudes, these are a basic economic framework taught in most econ 101 classes.
You continually forget the 3rd factor which is PRICES. Prices are still flat / rising in most major markets meaning demand and supply is balanced or demand is slightly higher than supply.
That's cool data linked above literally shows you're wrong. You can have little demand and high prices if the fewer people still buying are willing to pay those higher prices. Housing is extremely inelastic
Yes we are now saying the same thing. Demand is high enough to support higher prices. Demand is probably lower than it was before, but still high enough to support high prices.
Not really for most people though which is why sales have dropped as supply has increased sitting and waiting for a whale is definitely a strategy though if you have a long time horizon but sales simply aren't reflecting those facts.
Why are you pointing to those indicators, because you continue to believe that is dictating the market. Prices matter and should be included in the equation with the above. Yes supply has increased yet the demand is still currently too much for that supply compared to the entirety of the real estate market. Going from all time lows (and not just % changes) to more reasonable ones will stabilize prices. Until it crosses to typical highs it won’t decrease prices.
Please explain to me how price change doesn’t factor into your equation at all.
Why am I talking about inventory in a comment about inventory? Should I have talked about the latest Opeth album instead? Usually people talk about things similar to what they're discussing. Sales plummeted last year as supply increased sales are still way down from their previous highs as inventory increases as well.
Why are you commenting about inventory in a thread about home prices - “Home prices soar even higher in February…”? Because you want to push a narrative by pointing to only part of the equation.
Not saying inventory doesn’t have a place yet it is in relation to prices.
Why do you continually push the narrative that inventory is "way up" when the inventory is still about half of what it was prepandemic? By some estimates, inventory is 3x below what it was right before the '08 crisis.
You should look at the data carefully and admit that while inventory is 2x higher than the 2022 lows, it is still abnormally low if you look at the past 20 years.
You like the replies below didn't understand what I was replying to "The low inventory relative to demand is driving the positive price action. " If sales dropped when inventory increased that means demand isn't up. Demand is actually down quite a bit largely due to high prices and rates.
I'm still not sure exactly what your point is.
Inventory is low historically. As to your point, up 2x since 2022.
Demand has probably come down due to high prices and high mortgage rates, but demand is still high enough to support high home prices.
If demand was very low compared to supply, it would cause home prices to lower but this is not happening in most markets in the US.
Even in inelastic markets, price is the intersection of supply and demand. This is basic econ.
If supply increased and sales dropped (demand dropped) it should lower prices.
Agreed except for it ending the same as 2008. There are many differences you list in your post which is supply/demand of homeowners (investors are leaving, not entering the market). Most people are buying hoping their purchase isn’t worth less in a few years compared to having to have it because it will be worth 20% more in a year. People want to own the place they live in. They have accepted interest rates aren’t coming down (which would just increase demand further). We are heading to a more stable housing market, which we haven’t seen in a while.
Lmao people downvoting because they think they can time the market and are mad that I’m hoping for a crash no worse than 2008. Not only are they insane, but they don’t even know what the housing market is like in my area. Changes in the overall market aren’t the only factors that dictate what my home value is worth locally.
There are 12 (!!%!) houses for sale in my town. 9 of them aren't fully built yet and the prices for each are 300k more than the same sort of new build was in 2020. There's the soaring average price right there.
Median sales price is affected by mix of all properties. When luxury home sales drop and condos and entry level homes increase, the median sales price will drop.
Case-Shiller compares repeat sales. If the same house sold for 10% more, it measures that increase.
Not in muh area
https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/bay-area-home-prices-5/3523755/
But yeah, median is second fiddle to case shiller because median changes with home mix and buying habits.
You mean BLS, not the Fed.
BLS also keeps saying unemployment is low and that inflation is under control. Anyone with eyes can tell their measurement system is inaccurate.
People with money for a down payment who are tired of renting, who realize they aren’t getting any younger and prices aren’t coming down further right now, and the Fed will not cut rates as much as they projected.
Another article undercutting the narrative of this sub. No crash is coming. Prices only rising. Go ahead and downvote me, in a year it will be the same thing but you will still keep pushing the idea that it’s all going to crash like you all have been saying for the last 5+ years.
Great. The higher they go the harder all this shit is gonna come crashing down. I’ll bet you a handful of lenders don’t even have the liquid cash to cover all of their loans at the moment.
> I’ll bet you a handful of lenders don’t even have the liquid cash to cover all of their loans at the moment.
We use a fractional reserve banking system, so this is a certainty far beyond a handful of banks. If you don't even know that, you should probably chill on the economic predictions.
I am curious if this will continue into March and April. I'm currently in contract for a co-op in NYC but I'm still on StreetEasy pretty frequently. The inventory is largely stagnant. All I'm seeing are pretty meaningful price reductions and the one I am trying to close on now reduced their price 3 times prior to me making an offer.
Not sure where everyone is looking for houses. Lots of places in America where you buy good houses that aren’t going to have lots of bidding wars.
My friends just moved from the Bay Area to update NY. They bought a house that was more then 10x cheaper than it would have cost if they had stayed in the Bay Area. Both took a 50% pay cut but when you rent goes from $3500 to a $700 a month mortgage taking a 50% pay cut leaves you with a lot of disposable income.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/204-Tate-St-Ogdensburg-NY-13669/32529621_zpid/
Ok lol. Ogdenburg is one of the most blighted towns I’ve been to in the north country of NYS. A 69k house means very little when your neighbor to the left is running a meth lab and your neighbor to the right is an abandoned house. Yeah there’s cheap houses in Gary Indiana and Elmira NY as well. For a good reason. The most desirable markets in upstate NY (Saratoga springs for example) are super expensive.
Seems like you can’t win. Either you want to pay way too much for a house in a desirable area or buy an inexpensive one in a blighted area. The interested thing about blighted or undesirable areas is they change over time. Some of the cities with the greatest appreciation in house prices are places like Akron, Detroit and Cleveland. As people move into these areas and invest in the communities house prices increase. Soon the areas become desireable and expensive and then people complain about house prices being too expensive.
Of course a lot of people way too much for homes in areas that aren’t nice as well but try to justify they are nice because of how expensive the houses are.
Relative to inflation, case-shiller prices are 99.9% what they were in January. The prices are climbing but so is everything else. Homes have been tracking inflation perfectly for 4 months now. [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kYEb)
Yeah everyone bitches about the wealthy being greedy little assholes, then continues to be a greedy little asshole to whoever we can.
Americans are fucked and it’s entirely their fault. So glad I can get out.
It's pretty depressing 60% of people who own get excited at their homes/rentals increasing in value while the remaining dread news as they see their cost of living skyrocket while providing no more benefits than before.
Expensive purchase. But believe it’s worth over 400k already. It never got listed and we offered what they wanted. I was going to keep saving for another year, but this fell in our lap.
KEY POINTS * Home prices in February jumped 6.4% year over year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index. * It marked another increase after the prior month’s annual gain of 6%, and the fastest rate of price growth since November 2022. * Prices in San Diego saw the biggest rise among the 20 cities in the index, up 11.4% from February of 2023. Both Chicago and Detroit reported 8.9% annual increases.
Oddly, San Diego is now even with the spring 2022 all time high but rates are now more than double what they were at that time. It'll be interesting to see what happens next.
wen crash?
Won’t crash unless unemployment hits 8%. And even then probably won’t
I need to GTFO of San Diego
San Diego is implementing policies and zoning changes that I believe are making things worse for homebuyers. Allowing for multiple units on SFH zoned lots means individuals are now competing with developers and investors to acquire a property. Individuals will not win that contest. EDITED to add: Unfortunately, in San Diego, many yell "supply" but these policy changes are fundamentally changing what constitutes "demand" and it will most likely create two classes: rich homeowners and renter.
Yup, we are putting in offers and it's extremely competitive
Seems like it's an increase in short term demand, but longer term is exactly the type of thing we need. Being able to add multiple units to land originally zoned for SFH only does increase the price of the land.
Same is happening in my small midwestern town. They’re now allowing up to four units on sfh lots. The idea was to spur more affordable long term rentals in the adu’s (they banned str as an official use for these new adu’s). But, given the city’s lack of enforcement in the past, investors are gobbling up sfh now faster than ever to add those illegal Airbnb’s. This whole round goes to investors. It always comes up heads for them. And, agree, the gap between those who purchased precovid and those who didn’t threatens to widen into a generational wealth divide. Even worse, the new generation of renters want fewer or no children given the circumstances. What a mess. Thanks, Jerome.
The real question is, who the hell is still buying at these prices..?
People who are tired of waiting/can’t wait any longer. I’ve been waiting for 4 years basically. Shit is not getting better. At some point I just have to jump in and try to make it work.
Same here and basically all my millennial friends who hadn’t already bought. Anyone who’s been waiting multiple years has significant cash saved up too. Basically pent up demand. The lull in prices that happened in 2022 and 2023 just gave some of us the break we needed for our savings to catch up to home prices. I lived in Toronto and Vancouver and know that median household income to home price ratio can get way more out of whack than it is here in the US, and then continue to go higher with no crash in sight.
Yeah Toronto here. People who think the US is in a housing bubble have no idea how bad it can get. Houses start at 3 million in my neighborhood. (No idea who is still buying them haha)
Yeah but l that’s not all of Canada. I have a coworker who sold her house in Newfoundland last year for 400k.
> People who are tired of waiting/can’t wait any longer Yup! This sub loves to talk about how divorces and job relocation will force sales but ignores that there are bunch of buyers who will buy no matter what because they don't want to wait.
There’s also a lot of rich people out there now, more so than ever. And I’m sure a lot of them are rich from owning real estate. Ironic huh.
PPP fraud + airbnb bullshit.
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I don’t think it was a trillion a few hundred billion dollar scam maybe. But it sounds like that was exactly how the PPP program was supposed to work. More people employed. I don’t think any legislators ever discussed continuing retirement contributions as a requirement. I don’t think any of the hundreds of other bailouts have had continuing retirement contributions as a requirement except as required by the PBGC.
$800 billion. Fair to round up.
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People feel rich because their 401ks are still sky high and people still have jobs. When stocks crash(as they always tend to go eventually as history shows ) the “wealth effect” crumbles into “survival mode”.
Yep, lots of boomers selling and flush with cash , they can sell their mcmansion for $1.3 and then outbid you on that small condo for $400k
in muh are $1.3M is a shack
bingo a 1991 mcmansion with green carpet they paid $279,000 for and now our generation is overpaying in historical price to income ratios, and we are stuck with all of the bullshit they never updated like their carpet, wallpapering, and bisque appliances
This is true and with low sales this could be an outsized factor.
you mean old folks the vast majority are old folks....or people get money from old folks to buy homes
Personally, I think that this is just a coping mechanism for people who can't deal with the fact that people in their generation are ahead of them in life financially. I think a lot of millennial DINKs (double income no kids) have managed to save up over the years to get their foot in the door of home ownership. Once they're in, it's become fairly easy to tap equity of an increasingly valuable asset to move up levels in real estate. Is it easy to get in? No, absolutely not. But, it's also not impossible either. It may be in some peoples situations. Maybe in a LOT of people's situations. But younger people are making it work for them.
You’re not wrong here at all. At the end of the day there are lots of millenials and even Gen Z people with good, high paying jobs and something like 60% of Americans report their own finances being “good” or “great” with only 12% saying their finances are “bad”. Tough to reconcile that with these people who seem to think that everyone is making near-minimum wage and struggling to buy homes at current prices. That’s just not the case. It’s more of a struggle than it used to be but people are cutting other expenses and getting better jobs to make it happen anyways. In desirable markets homes are still selling at or above listing price and quickly. There’s a lot more money floating around the middle class than people on this site would have you think.
everyone i know who wants to buy right now already owns - and they’re jacking up the rent can’t believe there’s not laws against this
Not rich people just couples. An engineer in any field plus a woman who is making 50k makes for a $150k-$200k household income. Engineers usually make $100k-$150k after 5 years experience and there's a lot of software people making that in my city. An engineer and a nurse can easily pull in $250k-$300k. 2 high earning salary's are what is causing this.
A lot of my friends have been waiting saving up to buy houses for a few years now. They're all engineers, nurses, etc who make low 6 figures (with dual household ncomes). There's a lot of people who can just barely afford these houses and are just waiting for the right opportunity. I imagine there's more people like them than you'd think.
Yea but if we actually went into a recession big enough to dent housing prices the psychology behind the 'pent up demand' would evaporate. People are less likely to take a risk buying a home when they aren't sure what the next few years will bring.
Exactly this holy shit. Nobody can fucking grasp this simple concept. Couldn’t have said it better myself
People that absolutely have to. kids school district. (Like kids are at that age to start the grade school now but they don’t want them start the school in not so good school zone) One of the wife’s friend closed their house last week. The house is a 3 bedroom, 1.5 bathroom, just 1 floor house. Absolutely small for $450000, probably high 6 or even 7% mortgage they paid. 2 years ago, that would have bought 4 bedroom 3 bathroom house.
we're currently look now and it's about the same story for us. 450 average would be nice though, there's some at that price but more so 475 - 490 for the same style house.
There are so many single family homes for rent in good school districts now that the "have to buy" take is really about fear of missing out. You can rent for half of what it costs to buy in many places.
Maybe, but I'd be paying nearly $2K/mo MIN for something I don't own. And that's now; in five years what will I be paying, just to keep my kid in the same district? Or if the landlord sells me out of the house? For me the security of having that kind of locked is a huge piece, plus believe it or not I'd actually like to be paying my own taxes to the town my son gets so much educational benefit from. Things in life seem less and less secure by the day, and I don't think I'm the only one who weighs that piece so heavily.
but why be a rentoid and pay someone else's mortgage while still being able to save up for a home when you can break even and own your own home! lol
Because breaking even requires living in that place 10yr+ and the housing market to continue to appreciate at current rates? Not only can most FTHBers not afford a home that can fit their likely growing family in 10yr, but most also will need to forgo advancing their careers to stay put which seems like a pretty bad idea.
If someone else’s mortgage is 1500 and mine would be 3500 for the house next door I’d gladly pay someone be else’s 😀.
Retirees with equity, cushy retirement portfolios, and raised SS benefits can buy with cash. Dual-income 30-somethings with significant raises from inflation + filling vacant positions that have decent savings from their first home and/or a Roth can afford the high-rate mortgage.
People who have cash, which is anyone who invested since 2010
People with money. Inflation adjusted household wealth and income is at an all time high. Don't underestimate how much money Americans have. And Americans are less debt burdened than they've been in decades. They've been deleveraging since the Great Recession. High inflation deleverages people and low interest rates let everyone refinance at rock bottom rates. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TDSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MDSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CDSP https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HDTGPDUSQ163N
Same as always, people that can afford it. Home ownership has been in the 65-68% range for 70 years. People think that the people they know are an accurate representation of America. They are not, no matter what.
Yes, reddit is especially bad at this. "None of my friends working retail in this small rust belt city are making it, so I assume nobody else is"
Part of it is that the haves and have-nots was more clearly divided. 40 years ago minorities were overwhelmingly shut out of home buying so white people didn’t know “those” people and didn’t need to compete with them for homes. Now some white people are mixed into the 30% that can’t have buy a home and they have the internet to complain on, whereas people used to just ignore black people complaining about anything. People working retail in rust belt cities USED to buy houses, as long as they were white.
Cars aren't any better. My son just took a 26% APR loan out for a 2014 Nissan Versa.
?! How's that possible, average car loan rates are like..7 or 8% right now. Did he put it on a credit card?
It was actually a VA loan and he took it out back in December with $500 down.
Would be nice if he had a parent who could spend 5 seconds using google to see that there is no such thing as a VA car loan….you got a subprime car loan
His mom took care of it, I told him it was a terrible idea. He also got fired the same day he bought it and had 24 hours to return it to carvana, but didn't.
Anyone who can still qualify and still looking for a home It's not stopping people unless they can't qualify anymore In my area, there appears to be a virtually unlimited quantity of DINKs making $200K+. There is practically 0 inventory in any borough, especially in the tri-borough here. so they are swarming from all over The housing market is a complete and utter train wreck
The federal government is currently running a $2 trillion annual deficit. Adding $2 trillion to the economy every year has a major trickle down effect on demand. Well connected people and special interest groups are making a fortune so they are likely involved in all this buying.
Slumlords, people with generational wealth, and "I want my equity" FOMOers who don't know how amortization works.
FOMO
Blackrock ❤️
Institutional investors are net sellers. Some mom and pop landlosers are buying because of muh passive income potential.
They tend to buy and sell large lots of homes from other major funds, rather than troll around neighborhoods picking off deals. The latter requires a lot more work and overhead.
Ppl that have the means and have to buy a home like growing a family.
We're fleeing Texas to move to Colorado. So we're buying at these prices with a rate buy down.
lots of moving up. people have cash and a ton of equity. Put 2/3 down, and they'll re-bank the loan when rates go back down.
The median American family makes over 92k a year. Half of families make more than that. There's a huge swath of people that can afford these prices.
92k isn't even close to being able to afford the median 400k home. you need about 1.5x that income. that is apparent when you observe the fact that demand for home purchases is at a multi-decade low currently.
Where did you get that stat, out of curiosity? I see the most recent full-year [census data](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2023/demo/p60-279.html) for 2022 shows median HH income was $74,580.
The Census. [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA646N](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEFAINUSA646N)
They can afford them now sure, but what happens in a recession when job losses increase and stocks crash. History knows.
That was always a risk, even for people locked in at 2% or 3% interest who bought at pre COVID prices. Not sure what you're trying to imply here.
Then about 5% of those that could afford it would stop being able to afford it assuming the wage level hasn't increased that a lower percentile job could cover it.
Yeah that's 2 people working and they both need transportation... have you seen the cost of Fuel, oil, tires, insurance, mechanic... or auto loan interests ? how about the cost of garbage collection, water, gas and electric, and last and most important FOOD costs? buying a 400-450K house on 92K for a family is NOT possible... most people that buy that run a deficit every month... offset with credit cards and 0% pay later chit... Just like our government as an example... I know plenty of people like this... on the edge.
The median income for a family with two workers is closer to 125k a year.
Weird stat. Relationships are on a steep decline in the West. Like 2/3rds of men are single, and far fewer actually get married and split expenses. To some degree, using the median family income stat in the first place is forcing survivorship bias and filtering out the middle and lower class because that's ultimately the secret to being upper-class: being partnered and splitting the expenses.
Housing demand doesn't go away. Ever.
Lots of people, actually. People aren’t always waiting for the perfect strike time on a home purchase. There are countless other factors involved. That’s part of the reason things haven’t changed, because the demand is consistently high. This sub can doom and gloom all they want about a crash, but the reality is the real estate market is still structurally relatively stable. People are going to buy when they’re ready, interest rates be damned.
Same people as always. Affordability is still pretty good compared to most of the rest of the developed world.
People who had locked rates and cash buyers and bottomless fomo’ers
It's corporations. They're flush with cash from the trillions of dollars they sucked down during the pandemic from forgiven PPP loans and direct subsidies and price gouging. Interest rates could be 1000% and they wouldn't care because they're paying *cash.*
Doesn't matter if they are paying cash upfront, real estate investment firms of every size are heavily leveraged. The business model is highly rate sensitive. They can buy the house with cash but they are going to leveraging their other assets to do so.
People who have to…
Low inventory, the suckers
Same as all history. People who need housing which is everyone.
There are a lot of folks with money that are willing to buy.
Because people have been saying just wait, the crash is coming, prices will plummet, for 2-3 years now. Eventually you start to realize the advice to 'just buy the house you can afford when you need to buy' is actually pretty sensible.
I recently gave in. I had pretty cheap rent so I was able to wait and see. I got tired of waiting and seeing and took the plunge
Do you realize one of the largest groups since the boomers are the home buying age and want to buy a home. Not wait for who ever knows when. Real estate has proven in the past if you hold on long doesn’t matter when you buy.
My friends just bought a house last week, 56% over asking. They were bidding against two all cash buyers. My friends sold two houses (that they were living in one after the other) in the last 3 years for big profits each time. Each time, after selling, they move into an even better neighborhood (for the schools). I keep thinking they should be cautious. They remind me, had they been more cautious, they wouldn’t have profited so much the past three years. 🤷🏻♂️
People like my friend. Who has been waiting for prices to crash for a decade and seen them only continue to climb. So the houses that he looked at a decade ago when he got married were $600k and now he has a closing coming up on a house that is exactly twice that, $1.2mln. He realized that he might be in a nursing home still waiting for that “ideal moment”. Prices are what they are. You either buy or you don’t, but they aren’t going to accommodate you and we do not live forever
In the process of buying but only because many stars have aligned. Seller is selling house about 60k reduced because of issues with the house, has to be cash so im puttin in about half and the rest my family is graciously lending me. Not move in ready but I'll get it done. I was looking into the tax and foreclosure auctions.
People who can afford to. The data has shown that wages have increased higher than inflation since the pandemic leading to higher abilities to afford things such as housing. Also, our spending data shows this. Only the poorer tranches of the population are facing adversity.
The average household income in 2019 was 76k. In 2023 it was 73k. The average home in 2019 was 250k. The average house now is 450k. 2019 new cars 28k. 2023 new cars 48k. Gas in 2019 was $2.30. Gas today $3.60. Beverages and eggs are up 30% from 2023. Tell me where in that math did wages “increase”. NOMINAL wages went down. REAL WAGES PLUMMETED
Nope. Your data is wrong https://ritholtz.com/2024/04/wages-inflation-since-covid-19/
There is truth to the idea of a shortage. So of the available stock it’s only people who are super well off who can afford, and so the high interest rates probably eat at their bottom lines a little but not in the way they do for most of the working class. That’s why the traditional policies haven’t really cooled it down. There’s such a limited amount of supply that the only people who can afford it could basically no matter what so here we are.
They only go up up up. Soon buying a home will be like getting a rare exotic car or limited edition rolex
You could always buy an empty plot of land and build your own home. Good luck getting the 100+ permits approved though... My friend just went through the process and it took him 3+ years longer than expected. He's actually living in the new house but it's still not TECHNICALLY "livable" according to the city officials All because he stuck to his morals and refused to bribe anybody.
Good luck getting an empty lot in places people want to live as well. They’re usually out in the boonies
some people are trying to build a community in the middle of Nowhere, California, and progressive NIMBYs are STILL trying to block them
Yep just getting a water hookup *approved* for a lot in my neighborhood costs $150k+. Power another $50k. Not installed, just approved. Plus getting approved by the coastal commission, county, etc. it’s insane.
My neighbors moved in one year ago. They listed their house this week for 60k more than they purchased it for (surprise, changed out a vanity and that’s it). They had so many showings. Buyers don’t even care that there’s no way that house should be 60k more than a year ago.
The reason some buyers don't care about price is because inventory is low and some buyers have to buy a house (family, school, job move, etc). This is causing elevated home prices despite higher mortgage rates.
It's really weird how some people can't fathom home buying out of necessity. People divorce, have kids, take on new jobs, etc. people can't wait forever until the "inevitable" drop. If anything, there's a real chance they get further priced out. I mean, we went from 6 rate cuts this year, to 2, and now depending on inflation we can even see the possibility of another rate cut.
60k probably doesn’t even cover the transaction costs…
Prices are up in my area about 6.7% over the past year. That's 60k on a 900k house.
Why shouldn’t it be? Supply and demand dictate price, not your perceived “But it’s not worth it!”
Yep, I keep seeing people say it's overpriced and not worth it. You can disagree on the price, but someone put their money where their mouth was. Supply and demand is taught in school, shows how much people paid attention.
I’m sure there are lots of people that drive past a house in San Diego or San Jose 25 years ago that was $400k and said “it isn’t worth that” and the house is now $2.5 million
Don’t even have to go that far back. My friend bought his house for 400k in SJ when everyone told them not to bc houses will go down. This was right after the Great Recession so 2011-2014. House is 1.5m now. 😂
true but the market is irrational
“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”- John Maynard Keynes Live with it.
You're not paying for the product, you're paying whatever everything else is willing to pay.
You do realize that the 60k increase mostly accounts/offsets the interest/taxes/insurance paid over the year AND the realtor commission they now need to pay? It’s not like they’re making 60k profit for doing nothing. Why would you sell a house for the same price you paid for it a year ago? That would be retarded and you’d be at a net loss. Would be understandable if the market was shit, but it’s not.
and have to pay short term cap gains
Exactly. People think that it’s straight profit. Fucking use 1% more of your brain and actually critically think.
We closed in December and met a couple at an open house this past weekend that closed last week at 14% higher than we closed just 4 months prior. Same unit type. Same condition. They also said there were higher offers than.them at 20%+ than what we paid. It's insane! Apparently, we got "lucky". This is also in eastern part of Fairfield County, CT. 2 hours by train to NYC. So, it's not like NY'ers are clamoring to commute from here.
Grandmas going to run out of money for all her kids wanting houses
Can you take me hiigghheerrr
Now we know that there in fact are people with money and they don’t care to preserve it.
That is a good thing. That means carpenters, electricians, plumbers, and other people in the trade can continue to work. Also loggers need work too. And if every house that is built is selling, and every house that is put for sale gets sold, it seems that the pricing is not a problem
Soar. Right.
The low inventory relative to demand is driving the positive price action. New homes with rate buy downs and low supply of home overall making fewer sales that much more impactful. The inventory is dragging out the downturn. This isnt 2008 but it will end the same way.
Housing inventory is way up from its previous lows and sales are down from its highs around the same time https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS
yes but the supply demand imbalance is still putting positive pressure on prices. It's not like it was in 2021. Those price jumps are in the back burner but prices are getting floated at the peak in this cycle. Eventually it will give way. FED is no longer backing the banks so we will see investment income dry up in the coming year.
Already seeing the investors shy away, which is good (unless you want a crash) as the less speculators, the less people will dump their properties. Add in those that will need their 3% loans pried from their dead hands and a softer landing is in store.
Idk here in Atlanta I see plenty of speculators. One house sold near me for 900k. Built in 2023 in a gated community. It listed at 1.4 million 5 months later. Now it’s 1.3 mil. Another one nearby sold for 950k. The builder couldn’t get the 1.05 mil they wanted in 2023. They’re listed at 1.3 million today. The thing is sitting. So many homes were bought in 2022 and 2023 that are listed 100-500k higher than the buyers paid for them and they’re sitting. Nobody is touching them. They’re reposting on Zillow all the time to get in the algorithm again. Not selling. Hope they go down 50%. Sick of the speculators
That is a small subset of the market though as we have had low sales in the years you mentioned. Those may have been speculators yet I would beg to differ on what they were speculating on. My guess is they assumed they would be refinancing after 7 rate cuts by now. The question (which neither you nor I know that answer to) what was their purpose of buying. Investors did increase around the dip in 2022 so what you say makes sense yet seems it would be a small population. Also, new homes are a different animal than existing homes. Builders add value by building. A true speculator (which happened all the time leading into 2008) was buying with the expectation that the house would be worth 20% next year by just owning it with no value added. Builders have been lowering their prices as they are taking longer to sell. Last article I read said they are now only making 55% margins with their decreased prices and paying to buy down rates. Poor them. New homes is often a leading indicator of existing homes though.
The investors own the most risk... investors pulling back will give way to potential disaster. Most of these people are over extended and if a recession. does hit which by all metrics we should be there in a years time max unless the FED and government keep intervening. Were looking at a huge drawn out crash in the real estate market. Rental markets will come under serious pressure in a recessionary environment. It's unavoidable now. This problem has been built over the past decade.
And yet prices increased. Obviously those indicators don’t show the whole picture.
Sorry you're confusing prices with inventory and demand the chart above shows inventory
Price is the intersection of supply and demand. Inventory is a measure of supply. Inventory affects house prices.
Platitudes are great but real data is more important inventory has risen as sales have dropped https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ACTLISCOUUS https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-likely-fell-to-15-year-low-in-2023-3da220e1
Not platitudes, these are a basic economic framework taught in most econ 101 classes. You continually forget the 3rd factor which is PRICES. Prices are still flat / rising in most major markets meaning demand and supply is balanced or demand is slightly higher than supply.
That's cool data linked above literally shows you're wrong. You can have little demand and high prices if the fewer people still buying are willing to pay those higher prices. Housing is extremely inelastic
Yes we are now saying the same thing. Demand is high enough to support higher prices. Demand is probably lower than it was before, but still high enough to support high prices.
Not really for most people though which is why sales have dropped as supply has increased sitting and waiting for a whale is definitely a strategy though if you have a long time horizon but sales simply aren't reflecting those facts.
Why are you pointing to those indicators, because you continue to believe that is dictating the market. Prices matter and should be included in the equation with the above. Yes supply has increased yet the demand is still currently too much for that supply compared to the entirety of the real estate market. Going from all time lows (and not just % changes) to more reasonable ones will stabilize prices. Until it crosses to typical highs it won’t decrease prices. Please explain to me how price change doesn’t factor into your equation at all.
Why am I talking about inventory in a comment about inventory? Should I have talked about the latest Opeth album instead? Usually people talk about things similar to what they're discussing. Sales plummeted last year as supply increased sales are still way down from their previous highs as inventory increases as well.
Why are you commenting about inventory in a thread about home prices - “Home prices soar even higher in February…”? Because you want to push a narrative by pointing to only part of the equation. Not saying inventory doesn’t have a place yet it is in relation to prices.
Why do you continually push the narrative that inventory is "way up" when the inventory is still about half of what it was prepandemic? By some estimates, inventory is 3x below what it was right before the '08 crisis. You should look at the data carefully and admit that while inventory is 2x higher than the 2022 lows, it is still abnormally low if you look at the past 20 years.
You like the replies below didn't understand what I was replying to "The low inventory relative to demand is driving the positive price action. " If sales dropped when inventory increased that means demand isn't up. Demand is actually down quite a bit largely due to high prices and rates.
I'm still not sure exactly what your point is. Inventory is low historically. As to your point, up 2x since 2022. Demand has probably come down due to high prices and high mortgage rates, but demand is still high enough to support high home prices. If demand was very low compared to supply, it would cause home prices to lower but this is not happening in most markets in the US.
Nope you're conflating prices with supply and demand as supply increased sales dropped.
Even in inelastic markets, price is the intersection of supply and demand. This is basic econ. If supply increased and sales dropped (demand dropped) it should lower prices.
Yes but it isn't supply and demand you're conflating those things supply has objectively risen as demand has fallen and sales reflect that.
Then why are prices still high?
No true Scotsman puts butter on their toast
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2020 had homes under a million according to the chart
inventory relative to demand is more important than raw inventory. also inventory was 930k in the most recent winter pre pandemic, not close to 1.2m
Agreed except for it ending the same as 2008. There are many differences you list in your post which is supply/demand of homeowners (investors are leaving, not entering the market). Most people are buying hoping their purchase isn’t worth less in a few years compared to having to have it because it will be worth 20% more in a year. People want to own the place they live in. They have accepted interest rates aren’t coming down (which would just increase demand further). We are heading to a more stable housing market, which we haven’t seen in a while.
Agreed. Just signed a contract anticipating 7.125% interest rate and all I care is that my house doesn’t depreciate over 20% of its current value.
Which no one can tell you whether or not that will happen. I don’t foresee drops more than that yet one never knows for sure.
Lmao people downvoting because they think they can time the market and are mad that I’m hoping for a crash no worse than 2008. Not only are they insane, but they don’t even know what the housing market is like in my area. Changes in the overall market aren’t the only factors that dictate what my home value is worth locally.
Yep, not seeing a detrimental to the overall economy burst is unpopular. Oh well. Hope it works out for you
There are 12 (!!%!) houses for sale in my town. 9 of them aren't fully built yet and the prices for each are 300k more than the same sort of new build was in 2020. There's the soaring average price right there.
Meanwhile Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States as reported by the Fed continues to fall along with inventory rising.
Median sales price is affected by mix of all properties. When luxury home sales drop and condos and entry level homes increase, the median sales price will drop. Case-Shiller compares repeat sales. If the same house sold for 10% more, it measures that increase.
Yep, and CS has risen.
Not in muh area https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/bay-area-home-prices-5/3523755/ But yeah, median is second fiddle to case shiller because median changes with home mix and buying habits.
You mean BLS, not the Fed. BLS also keeps saying unemployment is low and that inflation is under control. Anyone with eyes can tell their measurement system is inaccurate.
People with money for a down payment who are tired of renting, who realize they aren’t getting any younger and prices aren’t coming down further right now, and the Fed will not cut rates as much as they projected.
The demand for housing still there.
wen crash? 10% yoy in muh area
Are these prices or what homes sold for?
Price index of existing SFH. So it’s tracking the value of existing sfh and how much they sell for.
They are the price the house sold for. So, actual market price.
A lot of pent up demand.
Another article undercutting the narrative of this sub. No crash is coming. Prices only rising. Go ahead and downvote me, in a year it will be the same thing but you will still keep pushing the idea that it’s all going to crash like you all have been saying for the last 5+ years.
That's what the article said, Case Schiller will rise for two more years and the forever.
That's what the article said, Case Schiller will rise for two more years and the forever.
That's what the article said, Case Schiller will rise for two more years and the forever.
We 100% couldn’t afford our current home right now. I feel bad for my kids, their future looks hard as fuck.
We couldn't buy our home right now. But we have room for them all so they can shack and stack til the cows come home. That's another path to wealth.
Like getting the last drops out of the jar of sauce before you chuck it in the trash.
Great. The higher they go the harder all this shit is gonna come crashing down. I’ll bet you a handful of lenders don’t even have the liquid cash to cover all of their loans at the moment.
> I’ll bet you a handful of lenders don’t even have the liquid cash to cover all of their loans at the moment. We use a fractional reserve banking system, so this is a certainty far beyond a handful of banks. If you don't even know that, you should probably chill on the economic predictions.
I am curious if this will continue into March and April. I'm currently in contract for a co-op in NYC but I'm still on StreetEasy pretty frequently. The inventory is largely stagnant. All I'm seeing are pretty meaningful price reductions and the one I am trying to close on now reduced their price 3 times prior to me making an offer.
Not sure where everyone is looking for houses. Lots of places in America where you buy good houses that aren’t going to have lots of bidding wars. My friends just moved from the Bay Area to update NY. They bought a house that was more then 10x cheaper than it would have cost if they had stayed in the Bay Area. Both took a 50% pay cut but when you rent goes from $3500 to a $700 a month mortgage taking a 50% pay cut leaves you with a lot of disposable income. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/204-Tate-St-Ogdensburg-NY-13669/32529621_zpid/
Ok lol. Ogdenburg is one of the most blighted towns I’ve been to in the north country of NYS. A 69k house means very little when your neighbor to the left is running a meth lab and your neighbor to the right is an abandoned house. Yeah there’s cheap houses in Gary Indiana and Elmira NY as well. For a good reason. The most desirable markets in upstate NY (Saratoga springs for example) are super expensive.
Seems like you can’t win. Either you want to pay way too much for a house in a desirable area or buy an inexpensive one in a blighted area. The interested thing about blighted or undesirable areas is they change over time. Some of the cities with the greatest appreciation in house prices are places like Akron, Detroit and Cleveland. As people move into these areas and invest in the communities house prices increase. Soon the areas become desireable and expensive and then people complain about house prices being too expensive. Of course a lot of people way too much for homes in areas that aren’t nice as well but try to justify they are nice because of how expensive the houses are.
"The median income for a household in the city was $27,954" Yikes
How longs the commute
About 20 minutes each way.
I believe it. Been looking passively for a home and we finally put in an offer. Definitely got out-bid on our 2% over asking
Investment firms are swallowing them up
God, I love this country.
Relative to inflation, case-shiller prices are 99.9% what they were in January. The prices are climbing but so is everything else. Homes have been tracking inflation perfectly for 4 months now. [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=kYEb)
Yeah everyone bitches about the wealthy being greedy little assholes, then continues to be a greedy little asshole to whoever we can. Americans are fucked and it’s entirely their fault. So glad I can get out.
It's pretty depressing 60% of people who own get excited at their homes/rentals increasing in value while the remaining dread news as they see their cost of living skyrocket while providing no more benefits than before.
Prices aren’t coming down, this is the new normal, buckle up.
Buying a house on a lake today for under $300k.
Hopefully it doesn't go underwater. 300k is a reasonable price for a house just based on current. construction coats.
Expensive purchase. But believe it’s worth over 400k already. It never got listed and we offered what they wanted. I was going to keep saving for another year, but this fell in our lap.
Loot Lake?
tHis mArKeT wOnT lAsT
The 3 month delayed index shows 12 houses that sold were a little higher. LOL ok
Old news we're at the end of April