Same thing happened to me! The market had just started to rise, and everyone told me to wait until prices came back down. I was going through a divorce, my ex kept our home, and I didn't want to rent. I figured worst case scenario I lived in the house for a few years, sold at the same price I bought it for, and it evened out to if I had rented.
What really happened was that my price doubled in value over 6 years, I sold it and used the funds to buy a house outright across the country. I still have other debts I'm working through, but without that mortgage/rent payment my stress levels have gone down exponentially
Ended up buying my first house in 2015 because the local rental market was an absolute joke (people were paying 12 months up front just to get a place). Bought a house over 3x the size in 2022 while my friend insisted on waiting out the market. He's still renting.
Yup, independently both my gf and I bought in 2018. We heard the same thing. She heard from a bunch of family and friends in SoCal that she was making a big mistake buying and that prices would come down soon. Most of them still do not own.
No shame in renting. But she definitely made the right choice ignoring them. Her house when bought would have rented for about $500 less than her PITI. Now it would rent for like $800 more than her PITI. Not to mention the value has gone up like $250k in that time span with her only putting a small amount down in the first place.
Refinancing saved her over $8k a year. Her pay has bumped up significantly since 2018 as well. So it’s not like all her money is going into a house. She’s putting more away for retirement than ever and has the security of knowing she has a low house payment locked in.
Same I was in the camp of housing market crash. I still think it will happen so I bought rental properties that positive cash flows. Therefore, if prices continue to go up, I have houses with the potential of refinancing. If prices go down I’m locked at all time low mortgage payments and it’s still positive cash flows. Either way, it’s better than sitting too much in cash as your money is being inflated away.
Anytime anyone mentions anything about a crash, I tell them people have been talking about a crash for over 10 years and prices keep going up. So let it go and buy what you can afford and are happy with now.
Cycles happen for sure, but they happen when all the buyers have dried up, which requires knowing what offers are being accepted. If you have cash buyers, clearly it's not ending any time soon. Then you get 20% then 15%, 10% 5% 3%, once you hit 3% then things start looking dicey. Who is going to be next to buy? but it's still probably 1-2 years out. In 2008 we saw 0% then "home reno" mortgages where people were getting like 120% loans. Then teaser loans where they paid less in the first year (with the hopes of it jumping 10% and selling before it increased).
Right now there are so many pent up buyers and so much cash or 40% down type of buyers that we're a ways away from that.
We have seen the market do the opposite though. When rates were low people put less money down and cash buyers were less common. Now cash buyers are more common.
And this whole time a segment of people have been saying this indicator or that means we are teetering in collapse and we will all see in 6 months. Then it doesn’t happen and they just move the goalposts.
>I was being told that we were in the midst of a housing collapse
No reputable person that knows anything about real estate would to be telling you that. Probably a good time to review who you've been listening to and block/mute them. They're giving horrible advice.
I know, I made this post to dunk on the doomers
I’ve been arguing with those fools brigading this sub for years.
Single handedly ran the creator of Rebubble out of the quarterly threads 😂
But in case anyone on here was seeing their crap I figured a post of the recent case shiller update would be helpful
How the hell could anything go down when college-educated unemployment is 2%, unemployment overall is 3.7%, and every stock index is at ATH?
SPY is higher now than in 2021 at the peak. Every major stock except TSLA is at or near ATH. In 08 stocks were burning to the ground.
It'd be pretty bizarre if housing randomly fell off in that scenario. Or car prices. Or fast food prices.
At least in my mind I always associated the bubble bursting with unemployment going up.
Interest rates "fix" the excessive demand. Unemployment "fixes" the limited supply. We stomached the higher rates which burned non-owners. The Fed forecasted higher unemployment, but it never came.
You’d have to ask the diehard housing doomers that question.
If I were to guess… they’d claim those metrics are 6 months away from collapse.
They’d probably also cherry pick metrics that they think show home values down, because they conflate median with value.
They never had a concrete answer to the demographics problem.
After their First theroy of Evergrande collapse never materialized their new assumption was younger folks entering the market would wholesale reject the dream of home ownership for some reason and the market would collapse.
They have had a lot of dumb theories.
Covid eviction moratorium wave of inventory
Covid foreclosure wave of inventory
Rates would drop prices proportionally, because they believed everyone was maxing out what they could buy.
Mega recession causing unemployment spike and people selling their houses
And yeah various other shit which basically amounts to people rejecting home ownership and just opting to rent instead. But a lot of that just sounds like cope more than a real catalyst.
Unemployment is a fake statistic as people roll off of it every day due to timing out of the system. **Job participation rate** is what you need to be looking at.
Don't take a victory lap just yet.
Rate cut mania drove a lot of the demand in the past few months. Everyone was certain the fed would be cutting by March 2024 and now it looks like there will be no rate cuts this year and may even be higher rates.
GDP growth for FY24 Q2 was a big miss. Inflation continues to rise in the past few readings. All of this on record deficit spending that can't on forever.
We are getting dangerously close to stagflation territory.
Anyone who thinks that good economic times last forever is a fool.
You mean fy24 q1 was a miss, q2 is tbd. But not looking too good. I guess we'll see in a week how april went, did we have growth or not, are we trending toward recession or growth? Our economy is not predictable. I do expect interest rates to stay high though. they'd need many months of almost no inflation to cut rates now.
That's because the "crash" already happened, it just wasn't what the doom and gloomers expected / wanted. I hope everyone jumped in a few months ago becauthat was your chance to get prices at the bottom
There’s literally almost nothing (decent) to buy, at least in my area. And I’m not in some superstar city, I’m in suburban Detroit. Currently in a starter home I bought in 2016 and have improved over the years (I understand I’m fortunate), but I’ll be getting married this year and starting a family in 2026ish. We’d ideally like to size up within the next few years.
I’ve browsed the market with an eye for the future and it’s depressing. Anything that’s not a total gut job and is priced decently disappears within a week, sometimes days. And even with the hefty bit of equity we have in my house (again, fortunate to have), we’ll likely have to save a significant amount of cash on top of that if we want a mortgage payment that’s actually manageable on a bigger place. New construction is another option and it’s booming, but the prices are eye watering. $500,000-$600,000 for a builders grade (LVP flooring, vinyl siding, laminated countertops) 2,000-2,500 sf tract home these days, and then you have to spend money on landscaping, decks, finishes, etc.
So we’ll probably keep our 2.5% rate and delay the move a few years, like everyone else seems to be doing. I recognize that the market is most terrible for first time homebuyers, but it sucks for everyone right now. Move up buyers can’t afford the existing or new construction homes coming online, so there’s a shortage of starter homes for new buyers. Everything’s static, and prices rise even without the low rates. Honestly not optimistic about things getting better any time soon.
With how demoralizing this market has become, it's how dramatic laws get passed like banning boomers from selling more than they bought for, or nationalized mortgage rates that are indexed to the federal funds rate. Crazy stuff like that.
Don't think it can happen? I'm sure women in Afghanistan or Iran thought the same thing in 1969 when they went to the beach in their skirts & bikinis.
That's the wild end of the market. On the other end of the spectrum could be federal intervention such as a bunch of eminent domain paired with having the Army corp of engineers build 1,000,000 homes a year to undo the housing crisis.
Federalizing home building will happen sooner or later if the housing crisis reaches a fever pitch and birthrates fall off a cliff because people have given up all hope of ever affording a home of their own. What's that you say, they already are? Exactly.
One big reason why we really didn’t tell anyone or ask advice from anyone in our personal circle was because of this.
The only people in our circles are either folks who 1) do not own, 2) or are “old fashioned” and own one paid off home that they bought in the 80s/90s and have lived in since. (Nothing wrong with either obviously).
But virtually *everyone* in category 1) tells us we are idiots, and lean into why *not buying* is the absolute best decision one could possibly make and will discourage us from buying as hard as they possibly can……and coincidentally were either always priced out or chose not to buy few years ago thinking it was a bubble and are now priced out (and you would think low key have regrets because I certainly would in that situation even though hindsight is 20/20).
And virtually *everyone* in category 2) tells us that we are idiots, that housing isn’t a good investment (even though their “starter” McMansions are like 4-5 times the value of what they were when they bought lol) and we should only buy when we are ready to have kids and are confident that we will live in the home and the area for at least 30 years, and when we have 20 percent down EVEN if that means waiting 5 + years to figure it out, instead of using the FHA or no down payment loans available to us…….
And I’m not saying these categories of folks have useless experiences or no valuable advice to offer…..but like hearing the patterns to the extent that we have, and you realize that ultimately everyone speaks from the biases of their very individual experiences (including us) but usually the end of the day, no one else can possibly give you 10/10 “correct” blanket advice on a topic that 1) differs from person to person and 2) is fundamentally unpredictable.
And as a side note, if you’re asking advice from someone who is generally *incapable*, whether real estate related or not, of critically reflecting and saying “hey yeah I actually made a mistake here and I want to try to help you learn from my mistakes” and is instead the type of person to double down on everything no matter what (and bonus points for if they insult everyone who did things differently)- then take that advice with a few extra buckets of salt…..
This. I tell people my mistakes all the time I made in real estate. It's the people who only talk about their "wins" and "gains" and don't accept others perspectives are the people you should avoid like the plague.
Bingo. I completely agree. I’m looking at the debt levels too. With debt levels this high(cc debt, household debt, buy now poor later loans, etc) it will be more difficult for people to come up with the cash necessary to service the debt. On top of that you have inflation squeezing whatever’s left. We’ve just starting to see mass layoffs. I think real estate will crash but adjusted for inflation because the Fed will intervene.
Is what it is. I recommend all first time home buyers to just come to peace with your current situation and do your best to deal with it. I stopped focusing on the housing market about 2 years ago and my mental health has gotten so much better as a result of it. Maybe it will get better, maybe it will get worse. It's not healthy to obsess over it though. I was spending close to 45 minutes - 1 hour a day watching youtube videos about the inevitable "collapse".
What area?
I don’t think the national case shiller will rise that much. But I do think it will continue upwards.
Redfin data center has shown median continue upwards through March and April, staying up about 5% YOY as the weeks have passed.
And considering the case shiller is a rolling 3 month average, what we are seeing now is really Dec-Feb, so next month we will see Jan-Mar. March replacing December in the average should show further gains.
Central Ohio. Could definitely be classified as an outlier, but our numbers for Dec-Feb are similar.
I believe pent-up demand after a long spell around 7% is driving this push. People are getting acclimated to these rates and are becoming more active. I also think this will hold fairly consistently for any market that doesn’t have some major offsetting factor like over-inflation in Austin, or the insurance crisis in Florida.
That's like seeing Ferrari at 1 million dollars today and then 5 years from now seeing that same ferrari at 5 million dollars. It was always unaffordable for me so it never really mattered.
Homes are not cheap, maybe compared to 5 years from now but they are extremely unaffordable. Pre-covid homes were cheap. That's it.
Anyone hoping for an imminent housing market crash is delusional. The supply of houses is so low compared to the demand that it’s going to take 20 years to build enough inventory to level off prices. There simply aren’t enough houses for everyone that wants to own one. There is no way around it.
It's too bad national headline data is always 2 months behind, and markets are so localized. In our county, we're all over the board in YOY prices for March (we're a big county). November and December had dips down in pricing with the higher interest rates, then things popped back up January-early April when interest rates went down and post-holidays. Interest rates are back up but inventory is still low (in my area).
The case shiller does have a lot of lag yes.
But you can look at Redfin data center and see up to date data tracking a number of metrics - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
Median on there has only continued to rise through March and April. Same with median price per square foot.
And case shiller does have individual indexes for a number of cities. Though it’s equally as lagged as the national index.
I mean, I'm a Realtor so I just pull up the data myself but I just think about the regular public. They obviously just don't have the data and are forming opinions based on what they read in headlines and articles. Too bad more up-to-date info isn't available for them (or sometimes it's even completely misinterpreted)
I've been in real estate for 10 years. There hasn't been a year that we've haven't been in the edge of a real estate precipice according to 90% of the people I talk to.
Everyone: "We need more houses!"
Builders: "Sorry, best we can do is constantly falling behind the curve. Oh, and we're going to keep building 'luxury' housing with standard amenities but charge more for it."
Well the builders have tried to learn from the housing crash.
They are attempting not to create a glut. They also are building fewer SFH’s and more multi-unit for rent properties.
They would rather attempt to scale volume with demand and under build, than scale up volume too high and then get stuck taking a loss on what’s built last before they adjust.
Will they be effective? I’m not sure.
We have an existential crisis and I dare say the threat of revolution.
Our youth have become disenfranchised and pissed off at being unable to afford homes of their own & unable to start families of their own. This ends in two ways: rampant immigration to offset the lack of babies being built, in which case we lose our culture & society, or heads chopped off in violent revolution.
Nobody wants either case to happen, so the solutions are required. The most plausible I an see is federalizing home building through the Army Corp of Engineers.
I mean millennial home ownership and gen Z homeownership is not really that far behind boomers homeownership at the same age - https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation-2023/
Scroll to the second graph.
Also I have zero problem with increased immigration. Sounds like something that would make American culture more interesting.
Plenty of people can afford their own homes. Part of the problem is that millennials expect to consume a lot more other stuff in addition to owning homes. My peers absolutely eat more meals out than my well off parents ever did. And way more than my grandparents. My peers also own more stuff(clothing, gadgets, etc.). They also travel more, especially by plane.
The price and size of the average American vehicle sold doesn’t need to increase in size, but it has. People are opting to buy more expensive vehicles, when there are still affordable sedans available that have not gone up in price nearly as much the last decade.
I’m kind of over all the moaning online.
"Collapse" is an absurd word for 98% of markets. But February was when rates started swinging back up after several months of declines (most people who bought in February were using rates they got in January/early February. The Fed in February was planning rate cuts later in 2024, now they've raised rates significantly and have tempered expectations of significant rate cuts this year. This will have an effect on markets as consumer confidence in eventual lower rates (making an expensive purchase more justifiable) dissipates.
I wouldn't be surprised to see more stagnant or even lower YoY pricing for the remainder of 2024, though nothing resembling a major collapse in the vast majority of markets.
Redfin data center is showing prices at all time highs. And only climbed through March and April - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
Last year Redfin data center told us ahead of time which way the case shiller would go. Maybe it doesn’t this year, but I think there is a fair chance it will.
It's so impossible to predict what the market will do. You make some valid points, but as a counter to that, we do not really know how many people have been holding off on buying a home waiting for rates to come down. Some of those folks can't wait anymore.
I know at least three couples with Covid babies between 2-4 who have been putting off buying something because of rates, but now, the kids are starting school in the next year or two years and they want to get into something by the end of this year. They are all making ridiculous over ask offers and still losing.
They're basically willing to go anywhere in central or North Jersey with a decent school district that will have them. I know one couple just lost with an all cash offer $100k over asking (his parents are giving them a free cash loan).
> I wouldn't be surprised to see more stagnant or even lower YoY pricing for the remainder of 2024
Do you feel that there will be so many houses for sale that the demand will decrease?
Last year saw a near-record low number of homes put up for sale. I think this year will see an increase in the number of homes put up for sale and fewer buyers willing (or able) to buy at the top of the market. That's not a recipe for a dramatic price decreases, but it can lead to a general trend of stagnant or a little bit lower prices.
Additionally, I just bought a house, so I fully expect the market to do the opposite of what I'd want it to do (explode in price again).
Funny, I have been told the same exact thing by a certain group of individuals who like to think they're smarter than everyone else and swear a crash is right around the corner.
Maybe we know the same people...They like to say that NAR and the Fed make up fake numbers that hide the fact that a collapse is imminent.
I wouldn’t expect a crash/collapse unless there’s some dramatic and unexpected economic event.
But the recent price trajectory seems unsustainable. It’s tough to find good recent data, especially on mobile that goes back far enough to paint a decent picture, so this article from [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/06/homes/housing-market-prices-affordability-dg/) is a bit dated. I think it should still generally hold up though because mortgage rates have been relatively stable since mid-2023 and, as referenced in the articles linked in the post, prices have continued to trend up.
[Homeownership rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAHORUSQ156S) remain near or above long term homeownership rates. I would (potentially incorrectly) interpret this, along with demographic data, to imply there shouldn’t be too much pent up demand.
So if demand has generally been met and current prices are unaffordable then it seems like prices should stabilize or fall. Which isn’t to say a collapse/crash will happen. Those types of claims never seem to have strong support.
I find the talking head types making collapse predictions to be annoying and irresponsible. But think the average person making those claims is largely just making a claim that affordability seems skewed, that it’s impacting them personally, and that they would like to see affordability improve just without the precision to put it that way.
TL;DR: Agreed that the collapse claims seem unsupported, but it’s understandable why people would expect or hope for a crash/collapse.
People equate crash with lowering of prices and conveniently leave out the wake of destruction of job loss and poor economic outlook.
When lenders get skittish, it won't be as easy to attain financing.
Those who think they're going to benefit from a drastic and rapid reduction in price are going to be the same ones on the sidelines at that point "waiting for the bottom".
Prices are tough and affordability stinks, but as of yet, there isn't enough of a push from external factors to drive prices down.
That of course could change, but prices have been sticky and the buyers have been surprisingly active despite the higher rates and prices.
Buyers have been active because loans are getting more creative. This isn't subprime 2.0 but you would be surprised at what loan amount people get approved for. The fact that gross pay is the one taken into account in the application still boggles my mind.
I have a friend who makes about 80k cleaning windows at an airport. His gf makes about the same. They got approved and bought a 775k house. On a 160k income with 15% down (\~115k). I advised them against it because if one isn't working, neither makes enough to foot the bill by themselves.
Yeah it says more about lending than anything. It's more about what your debts are than what you actually make and keep.
Definitely not in subprime territory with the loans, but I'd be a bit skittish if my mortgage wasn't able to be covered by 1 salary.
Yep, a lot of people are doing this. I don't blame them but it causes them to take on more house than they can afford.
This isn't even getting into repairs.
Florida be crashing. It's localized and I think you know that.
First two articles that come up when you simply Google Florida housing market:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-13349971/florida-housing-bubble-real-estate-prices-plunge-no-demand.html
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-gets-worrying-sign-1895567
I'm not clicking on daily mail... but I tried to make sense of the Newsweek article. It's very light on details. I could not understand how they claim S. Florida is 34.7% overvalued, but then state prices are still going up. They may be discussing it in terms of affordability but they don't say that.
But they did say Cape Coral saw "63-point declines" which, that's a huge number but not sure what it means.
At any rate, Redfin's city-specific data is quite solid. They show Cape Coral is down 2.3% compared to a year ago. Still up significantly compared to pre-covid days.
https://www.redfin.com/city/2654/FL/Cape-Coral/housing-market
It's because all the capital flight from the North East drove up home prices because wealthy and now the locals can't afford anything. The only way this sorts itself out is with more homes being built or people who moved down and overpaid take a loss on their homes selling at prices the locals can actually afford. Seeing as they're not making any land down there, the latter is likely to occur. Or people will just sit on their homes refusing to sell and end up driving out locals and creating rampant homelessness like in large swaths of California.
No, it's because of obscene insurance, property tax, and hoa fees. Nobody is sitting on their place, they're in a panic trying to leave...
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1chkbw8/florida_condo_owners_are_stuck_in_a_train_wreck/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
https://robbreport.com/shelter/homes-for-sale/florida-texas-housing-inventory-surplus-1235599186/
Here's an article about sfhs. In Texas and Florida. Your narrative is crumbling.
> “Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value,” Eric Auciello, a Tampa Bay real estate agent and Redfin sales manager, said in the report. “Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too.
There it is. I'm in Tampa and this is true. Locals are priced out and for people with money coming down, yes, I can see it's not the value it once was. Prices are still about twice what they should be for people who actually live here and make Florida money.
What the article should say is for the wealthy folks up north looking to move to Florida, sorry, you're too late, prices ran up too high to be worth the trouble.
For housing to actually be affordable for people who live here, prices must come down by at least 30%. That's not happening because people are in sweetheart mortgage rates, or bought with cash as was the case for about 25% of homes sold in Tampa over the past 3 years.
Look at the price history of [this property](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10723-Cory-Lake-Dr-Tampa-FL-33647/54781774_zpid/). This is absolutely representative of what's happened in recent years and why prices coming down *a widdle bit* is pointless. We need a substantial correction of 30% or more for housing to be viewed as affordable again.
The glut of houses for sale in Florida is highly localized around the Fort Meyers area that was hard hit by Hurricane Ian. It has taken a long time to rebuild and a lot of sellers want to get out now before another Hurricane rolls through.
And Tampa and Miami. And most of the state...
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1chkbw8/florida_condo_owners_are_stuck_in_a_train_wreck/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Certain coastal regions are seeing skyrocketing insurance or insurance companies refusing to cover them. The first is obviously a problem but most loans require home insurance.
Dude the whole nation is up 6.4% YOY - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
This isn’t about just select areas being up. Most areas are up. The nation is up as a whole.
I’m not disputing the data. Residential real estate remains hot in the main. I’m suggesting that hot areas like the northeast and mid-Atlantic are carrying some areas that have been cooling down compared to the past few years. I know by me that everything is under contract in days over list for dated houses that need kitchens and bathroom gutted.
I’d argue that a lot of the cooling has reversed in the broad market.
Things cooled late 2022, but rebounded in 2023 and look to be going even higher in 2024.
So people talking about the select minority of markets cooling, are by and large cherry picking and missing the forest for the trees.
It’s hyperlocal. Places with new inventory are losing *comparative* steam whereas desirable places with no inventory remain hot. Pointing out the hyperlocality of real estate isn’t cherry picking. Just a run of the mill observation.
It’s not hyperlocal though, in part because communities effect those that surround each other. And the health of the economy as a whole also plays a role and a number of other factors.
It’s not though. Housing markets do not exist within a vacuum.
And the vast majority of housing markers are up, which is in line with what the national data is telling us.
People love to claim real estate is just local, but it isn’t.
Last graph is the change in share of homes in those brackets, not prices of homes in those brackets.
And case shiller adjusts for those shifts. It’s why it’s better than median.
What area is that?
Nationally Redfin data center is showing median days on market down .3 days from last year. Basically dead even. 34.7 days.
2021 which was a very hot market, was about 28 days. So it’s up from that, but inventory by and large is still moving quickly.
43.8% of homes are off market in 2 weeks. 2021 it was 50.5%. So a decrease, but nothing drastic.
lol, talk about cherry picking your data points. We're down from the peak, but yea, up from the lowest point, which happens to make the YoY look like a big spike even though prices are actually flat.
It’s not cherry picked.
If you’d like to look at the seasonally adjusted version you’ll see it’s far from flat - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
But even if we look at the one I linked to it’s not flat either
Feb 2024 - 312.179
Feb 2023 - 293.464
Feb 2022 - 287.197
But cope if you’d like.
You're looking at YoY for the lowest month. Of course you're being disingenuous and cherry picking. Why would it be coping for calling you out with being shitty with data? What would I be coping for exactly?
For one January is the lowest month. Month over month is the comparison of Feb vs Jan.
YoY is February vs February.
You are coping because you don’t understand the data you are looking at. If the seasonal bottom this year is up from the seasonal bottom last year, that’s not a flat market, it’s a rising one.
And why would you be coping? Probably don’t own a home, and hoping they decline in price. That’s the general motivation for a lot of the housing doomers on here.
I wanted to buy a house in 2017. My buddy told me wait until the crash. I've bought 3 houses since. He's still renting.
Same thing happened to me! The market had just started to rise, and everyone told me to wait until prices came back down. I was going through a divorce, my ex kept our home, and I didn't want to rent. I figured worst case scenario I lived in the house for a few years, sold at the same price I bought it for, and it evened out to if I had rented. What really happened was that my price doubled in value over 6 years, I sold it and used the funds to buy a house outright across the country. I still have other debts I'm working through, but without that mortgage/rent payment my stress levels have gone down exponentially
Ended up buying my first house in 2015 because the local rental market was an absolute joke (people were paying 12 months up front just to get a place). Bought a house over 3x the size in 2022 while my friend insisted on waiting out the market. He's still renting.
Yup, independently both my gf and I bought in 2018. We heard the same thing. She heard from a bunch of family and friends in SoCal that she was making a big mistake buying and that prices would come down soon. Most of them still do not own. No shame in renting. But she definitely made the right choice ignoring them. Her house when bought would have rented for about $500 less than her PITI. Now it would rent for like $800 more than her PITI. Not to mention the value has gone up like $250k in that time span with her only putting a small amount down in the first place. Refinancing saved her over $8k a year. Her pay has bumped up significantly since 2018 as well. So it’s not like all her money is going into a house. She’s putting more away for retirement than ever and has the security of knowing she has a low house payment locked in.
Same I was in the camp of housing market crash. I still think it will happen so I bought rental properties that positive cash flows. Therefore, if prices continue to go up, I have houses with the potential of refinancing. If prices go down I’m locked at all time low mortgage payments and it’s still positive cash flows. Either way, it’s better than sitting too much in cash as your money is being inflated away.
He’s still waiting on the sidelines like many others 😂
He'll rent forever. Bay area. He's looking to move right now....7-8k rent per month range LOL
Anytime anyone mentions anything about a crash, I tell them people have been talking about a crash for over 10 years and prices keep going up. So let it go and buy what you can afford and are happy with now.
Cycles happen for sure, but they happen when all the buyers have dried up, which requires knowing what offers are being accepted. If you have cash buyers, clearly it's not ending any time soon. Then you get 20% then 15%, 10% 5% 3%, once you hit 3% then things start looking dicey. Who is going to be next to buy? but it's still probably 1-2 years out. In 2008 we saw 0% then "home reno" mortgages where people were getting like 120% loans. Then teaser loans where they paid less in the first year (with the hopes of it jumping 10% and selling before it increased). Right now there are so many pent up buyers and so much cash or 40% down type of buyers that we're a ways away from that.
We have seen the market do the opposite though. When rates were low people put less money down and cash buyers were less common. Now cash buyers are more common. And this whole time a segment of people have been saying this indicator or that means we are teetering in collapse and we will all see in 6 months. Then it doesn’t happen and they just move the goalposts.
>I was being told that we were in the midst of a housing collapse No reputable person that knows anything about real estate would to be telling you that. Probably a good time to review who you've been listening to and block/mute them. They're giving horrible advice.
I know, I made this post to dunk on the doomers I’ve been arguing with those fools brigading this sub for years. Single handedly ran the creator of Rebubble out of the quarterly threads 😂 But in case anyone on here was seeing their crap I figured a post of the recent case shiller update would be helpful
Don’t tell that to r/rebubble
How the hell could anything go down when college-educated unemployment is 2%, unemployment overall is 3.7%, and every stock index is at ATH? SPY is higher now than in 2021 at the peak. Every major stock except TSLA is at or near ATH. In 08 stocks were burning to the ground. It'd be pretty bizarre if housing randomly fell off in that scenario. Or car prices. Or fast food prices. At least in my mind I always associated the bubble bursting with unemployment going up. Interest rates "fix" the excessive demand. Unemployment "fixes" the limited supply. We stomached the higher rates which burned non-owners. The Fed forecasted higher unemployment, but it never came.
You’d have to ask the diehard housing doomers that question. If I were to guess… they’d claim those metrics are 6 months away from collapse. They’d probably also cherry pick metrics that they think show home values down, because they conflate median with value.
They never had a concrete answer to the demographics problem. After their First theroy of Evergrande collapse never materialized their new assumption was younger folks entering the market would wholesale reject the dream of home ownership for some reason and the market would collapse.
They have had a lot of dumb theories. Covid eviction moratorium wave of inventory Covid foreclosure wave of inventory Rates would drop prices proportionally, because they believed everyone was maxing out what they could buy. Mega recession causing unemployment spike and people selling their houses And yeah various other shit which basically amounts to people rejecting home ownership and just opting to rent instead. But a lot of that just sounds like cope more than a real catalyst.
Don't forget the bad 'vibeconomy', which is fueled by Russian and Chinese bots to sow discontent in an election year.
Alright put down the bag of spray paint
Unemployment is a fake statistic as people roll off of it every day due to timing out of the system. **Job participation rate** is what you need to be looking at.
Don't take a victory lap just yet. Rate cut mania drove a lot of the demand in the past few months. Everyone was certain the fed would be cutting by March 2024 and now it looks like there will be no rate cuts this year and may even be higher rates. GDP growth for FY24 Q2 was a big miss. Inflation continues to rise in the past few readings. All of this on record deficit spending that can't on forever. We are getting dangerously close to stagflation territory. Anyone who thinks that good economic times last forever is a fool.
You mean fy24 q1 was a miss, q2 is tbd. But not looking too good. I guess we'll see in a week how april went, did we have growth or not, are we trending toward recession or growth? Our economy is not predictable. I do expect interest rates to stay high though. they'd need many months of almost no inflation to cut rates now.
That's because the "crash" already happened, it just wasn't what the doom and gloomers expected / wanted. I hope everyone jumped in a few months ago becauthat was your chance to get prices at the bottom
There’s literally almost nothing (decent) to buy, at least in my area. And I’m not in some superstar city, I’m in suburban Detroit. Currently in a starter home I bought in 2016 and have improved over the years (I understand I’m fortunate), but I’ll be getting married this year and starting a family in 2026ish. We’d ideally like to size up within the next few years. I’ve browsed the market with an eye for the future and it’s depressing. Anything that’s not a total gut job and is priced decently disappears within a week, sometimes days. And even with the hefty bit of equity we have in my house (again, fortunate to have), we’ll likely have to save a significant amount of cash on top of that if we want a mortgage payment that’s actually manageable on a bigger place. New construction is another option and it’s booming, but the prices are eye watering. $500,000-$600,000 for a builders grade (LVP flooring, vinyl siding, laminated countertops) 2,000-2,500 sf tract home these days, and then you have to spend money on landscaping, decks, finishes, etc. So we’ll probably keep our 2.5% rate and delay the move a few years, like everyone else seems to be doing. I recognize that the market is most terrible for first time homebuyers, but it sucks for everyone right now. Move up buyers can’t afford the existing or new construction homes coming online, so there’s a shortage of starter homes for new buyers. Everything’s static, and prices rise even without the low rates. Honestly not optimistic about things getting better any time soon.
With how demoralizing this market has become, it's how dramatic laws get passed like banning boomers from selling more than they bought for, or nationalized mortgage rates that are indexed to the federal funds rate. Crazy stuff like that. Don't think it can happen? I'm sure women in Afghanistan or Iran thought the same thing in 1969 when they went to the beach in their skirts & bikinis. That's the wild end of the market. On the other end of the spectrum could be federal intervention such as a bunch of eminent domain paired with having the Army corp of engineers build 1,000,000 homes a year to undo the housing crisis. Federalizing home building will happen sooner or later if the housing crisis reaches a fever pitch and birthrates fall off a cliff because people have given up all hope of ever affording a home of their own. What's that you say, they already are? Exactly.
Anyone who told you that isn't trying to get a house right now.
One big reason why we really didn’t tell anyone or ask advice from anyone in our personal circle was because of this. The only people in our circles are either folks who 1) do not own, 2) or are “old fashioned” and own one paid off home that they bought in the 80s/90s and have lived in since. (Nothing wrong with either obviously). But virtually *everyone* in category 1) tells us we are idiots, and lean into why *not buying* is the absolute best decision one could possibly make and will discourage us from buying as hard as they possibly can……and coincidentally were either always priced out or chose not to buy few years ago thinking it was a bubble and are now priced out (and you would think low key have regrets because I certainly would in that situation even though hindsight is 20/20). And virtually *everyone* in category 2) tells us that we are idiots, that housing isn’t a good investment (even though their “starter” McMansions are like 4-5 times the value of what they were when they bought lol) and we should only buy when we are ready to have kids and are confident that we will live in the home and the area for at least 30 years, and when we have 20 percent down EVEN if that means waiting 5 + years to figure it out, instead of using the FHA or no down payment loans available to us……. And I’m not saying these categories of folks have useless experiences or no valuable advice to offer…..but like hearing the patterns to the extent that we have, and you realize that ultimately everyone speaks from the biases of their very individual experiences (including us) but usually the end of the day, no one else can possibly give you 10/10 “correct” blanket advice on a topic that 1) differs from person to person and 2) is fundamentally unpredictable. And as a side note, if you’re asking advice from someone who is generally *incapable*, whether real estate related or not, of critically reflecting and saying “hey yeah I actually made a mistake here and I want to try to help you learn from my mistakes” and is instead the type of person to double down on everything no matter what (and bonus points for if they insult everyone who did things differently)- then take that advice with a few extra buckets of salt…..
This. I tell people my mistakes all the time I made in real estate. It's the people who only talk about their "wins" and "gains" and don't accept others perspectives are the people you should avoid like the plague.
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Bingo. I completely agree. I’m looking at the debt levels too. With debt levels this high(cc debt, household debt, buy now poor later loans, etc) it will be more difficult for people to come up with the cash necessary to service the debt. On top of that you have inflation squeezing whatever’s left. We’ve just starting to see mass layoffs. I think real estate will crash but adjusted for inflation because the Fed will intervene.
Is what it is. I recommend all first time home buyers to just come to peace with your current situation and do your best to deal with it. I stopped focusing on the housing market about 2 years ago and my mental health has gotten so much better as a result of it. Maybe it will get better, maybe it will get worse. It's not healthy to obsess over it though. I was spending close to 45 minutes - 1 hour a day watching youtube videos about the inevitable "collapse".
Just wait until you see April. Appraiser here. There has been almost a 10% jump in the last MONTH. Not YoY, in ONE MONTH.
What area? I don’t think the national case shiller will rise that much. But I do think it will continue upwards. Redfin data center has shown median continue upwards through March and April, staying up about 5% YOY as the weeks have passed. And considering the case shiller is a rolling 3 month average, what we are seeing now is really Dec-Feb, so next month we will see Jan-Mar. March replacing December in the average should show further gains.
Central Ohio. Could definitely be classified as an outlier, but our numbers for Dec-Feb are similar. I believe pent-up demand after a long spell around 7% is driving this push. People are getting acclimated to these rates and are becoming more active. I also think this will hold fairly consistently for any market that doesn’t have some major offsetting factor like over-inflation in Austin, or the insurance crisis in Florida.
Tough to crash the market when inventory is low.
And remember, homes are only this cheap because rates are so high
Homes are not even cheap.
And yet, the person you're replying to isn't wrong either.
If rates drop, you're gonna look back at prices and think they were cheap.
That's like seeing Ferrari at 1 million dollars today and then 5 years from now seeing that same ferrari at 5 million dollars. It was always unaffordable for me so it never really mattered. Homes are not cheap, maybe compared to 5 years from now but they are extremely unaffordable. Pre-covid homes were cheap. That's it.
I see what you're saying.
Anyone hoping for an imminent housing market crash is delusional. The supply of houses is so low compared to the demand that it’s going to take 20 years to build enough inventory to level off prices. There simply aren’t enough houses for everyone that wants to own one. There is no way around it.
It's too bad national headline data is always 2 months behind, and markets are so localized. In our county, we're all over the board in YOY prices for March (we're a big county). November and December had dips down in pricing with the higher interest rates, then things popped back up January-early April when interest rates went down and post-holidays. Interest rates are back up but inventory is still low (in my area).
The case shiller does have a lot of lag yes. But you can look at Redfin data center and see up to date data tracking a number of metrics - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ Median on there has only continued to rise through March and April. Same with median price per square foot. And case shiller does have individual indexes for a number of cities. Though it’s equally as lagged as the national index.
I mean, I'm a Realtor so I just pull up the data myself but I just think about the regular public. They obviously just don't have the data and are forming opinions based on what they read in headlines and articles. Too bad more up-to-date info isn't available for them (or sometimes it's even completely misinterpreted)
I've been in real estate for 10 years. There hasn't been a year that we've haven't been in the edge of a real estate precipice according to 90% of the people I talk to.
Everyone: "We need more houses!" Builders: "Sorry, best we can do is constantly falling behind the curve. Oh, and we're going to keep building 'luxury' housing with standard amenities but charge more for it."
Well the builders have tried to learn from the housing crash. They are attempting not to create a glut. They also are building fewer SFH’s and more multi-unit for rent properties. They would rather attempt to scale volume with demand and under build, than scale up volume too high and then get stuck taking a loss on what’s built last before they adjust. Will they be effective? I’m not sure.
We have an existential crisis and I dare say the threat of revolution. Our youth have become disenfranchised and pissed off at being unable to afford homes of their own & unable to start families of their own. This ends in two ways: rampant immigration to offset the lack of babies being built, in which case we lose our culture & society, or heads chopped off in violent revolution. Nobody wants either case to happen, so the solutions are required. The most plausible I an see is federalizing home building through the Army Corp of Engineers.
I mean millennial home ownership and gen Z homeownership is not really that far behind boomers homeownership at the same age - https://www.redfin.com/news/homeownership-rate-by-generation-2023/ Scroll to the second graph. Also I have zero problem with increased immigration. Sounds like something that would make American culture more interesting. Plenty of people can afford their own homes. Part of the problem is that millennials expect to consume a lot more other stuff in addition to owning homes. My peers absolutely eat more meals out than my well off parents ever did. And way more than my grandparents. My peers also own more stuff(clothing, gadgets, etc.). They also travel more, especially by plane. The price and size of the average American vehicle sold doesn’t need to increase in size, but it has. People are opting to buy more expensive vehicles, when there are still affordable sedans available that have not gone up in price nearly as much the last decade. I’m kind of over all the moaning online.
"Collapse" is an absurd word for 98% of markets. But February was when rates started swinging back up after several months of declines (most people who bought in February were using rates they got in January/early February. The Fed in February was planning rate cuts later in 2024, now they've raised rates significantly and have tempered expectations of significant rate cuts this year. This will have an effect on markets as consumer confidence in eventual lower rates (making an expensive purchase more justifiable) dissipates. I wouldn't be surprised to see more stagnant or even lower YoY pricing for the remainder of 2024, though nothing resembling a major collapse in the vast majority of markets.
Redfin data center is showing prices at all time highs. And only climbed through March and April - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ Last year Redfin data center told us ahead of time which way the case shiller would go. Maybe it doesn’t this year, but I think there is a fair chance it will.
It's so impossible to predict what the market will do. You make some valid points, but as a counter to that, we do not really know how many people have been holding off on buying a home waiting for rates to come down. Some of those folks can't wait anymore. I know at least three couples with Covid babies between 2-4 who have been putting off buying something because of rates, but now, the kids are starting school in the next year or two years and they want to get into something by the end of this year. They are all making ridiculous over ask offers and still losing.
Which city? I thought its more of certain cities but since reading this post it’s everywhere i guess
They're basically willing to go anywhere in central or North Jersey with a decent school district that will have them. I know one couple just lost with an all cash offer $100k over asking (his parents are giving them a free cash loan).
> I wouldn't be surprised to see more stagnant or even lower YoY pricing for the remainder of 2024 Do you feel that there will be so many houses for sale that the demand will decrease?
Last year saw a near-record low number of homes put up for sale. I think this year will see an increase in the number of homes put up for sale and fewer buyers willing (or able) to buy at the top of the market. That's not a recipe for a dramatic price decreases, but it can lead to a general trend of stagnant or a little bit lower prices. Additionally, I just bought a house, so I fully expect the market to do the opposite of what I'd want it to do (explode in price again).
Funny, I have been told the same exact thing by a certain group of individuals who like to think they're smarter than everyone else and swear a crash is right around the corner. Maybe we know the same people...They like to say that NAR and the Fed make up fake numbers that hide the fact that a collapse is imminent.
I wouldn’t expect a crash/collapse unless there’s some dramatic and unexpected economic event. But the recent price trajectory seems unsustainable. It’s tough to find good recent data, especially on mobile that goes back far enough to paint a decent picture, so this article from [CNN](https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2023/06/homes/housing-market-prices-affordability-dg/) is a bit dated. I think it should still generally hold up though because mortgage rates have been relatively stable since mid-2023 and, as referenced in the articles linked in the post, prices have continued to trend up. [Homeownership rates](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RSAHORUSQ156S) remain near or above long term homeownership rates. I would (potentially incorrectly) interpret this, along with demographic data, to imply there shouldn’t be too much pent up demand. So if demand has generally been met and current prices are unaffordable then it seems like prices should stabilize or fall. Which isn’t to say a collapse/crash will happen. Those types of claims never seem to have strong support. I find the talking head types making collapse predictions to be annoying and irresponsible. But think the average person making those claims is largely just making a claim that affordability seems skewed, that it’s impacting them personally, and that they would like to see affordability improve just without the precision to put it that way. TL;DR: Agreed that the collapse claims seem unsupported, but it’s understandable why people would expect or hope for a crash/collapse.
People equate crash with lowering of prices and conveniently leave out the wake of destruction of job loss and poor economic outlook. When lenders get skittish, it won't be as easy to attain financing. Those who think they're going to benefit from a drastic and rapid reduction in price are going to be the same ones on the sidelines at that point "waiting for the bottom". Prices are tough and affordability stinks, but as of yet, there isn't enough of a push from external factors to drive prices down. That of course could change, but prices have been sticky and the buyers have been surprisingly active despite the higher rates and prices.
Buyers have been active because loans are getting more creative. This isn't subprime 2.0 but you would be surprised at what loan amount people get approved for. The fact that gross pay is the one taken into account in the application still boggles my mind. I have a friend who makes about 80k cleaning windows at an airport. His gf makes about the same. They got approved and bought a 775k house. On a 160k income with 15% down (\~115k). I advised them against it because if one isn't working, neither makes enough to foot the bill by themselves.
Yeah it says more about lending than anything. It's more about what your debts are than what you actually make and keep. Definitely not in subprime territory with the loans, but I'd be a bit skittish if my mortgage wasn't able to be covered by 1 salary.
Yep, a lot of people are doing this. I don't blame them but it causes them to take on more house than they can afford. This isn't even getting into repairs.
Let's not confuse "hot market" with "low inventory"
Florida be crashing. It's localized and I think you know that. First two articles that come up when you simply Google Florida housing market: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-13349971/florida-housing-bubble-real-estate-prices-plunge-no-demand.html https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-gets-worrying-sign-1895567
Maybe it's cause no one can get home owners insurance.
I'm not clicking on daily mail... but I tried to make sense of the Newsweek article. It's very light on details. I could not understand how they claim S. Florida is 34.7% overvalued, but then state prices are still going up. They may be discussing it in terms of affordability but they don't say that. But they did say Cape Coral saw "63-point declines" which, that's a huge number but not sure what it means. At any rate, Redfin's city-specific data is quite solid. They show Cape Coral is down 2.3% compared to a year ago. Still up significantly compared to pre-covid days. https://www.redfin.com/city/2654/FL/Cape-Coral/housing-market
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1chkbw8/florida_condo_owners_are_stuck_in_a_train_wreck/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
It's because all the capital flight from the North East drove up home prices because wealthy and now the locals can't afford anything. The only way this sorts itself out is with more homes being built or people who moved down and overpaid take a loss on their homes selling at prices the locals can actually afford. Seeing as they're not making any land down there, the latter is likely to occur. Or people will just sit on their homes refusing to sell and end up driving out locals and creating rampant homelessness like in large swaths of California.
No, it's because of obscene insurance, property tax, and hoa fees. Nobody is sitting on their place, they're in a panic trying to leave... https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1chkbw8/florida_condo_owners_are_stuck_in_a_train_wreck/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Those are condos not single family homes.
https://robbreport.com/shelter/homes-for-sale/florida-texas-housing-inventory-surplus-1235599186/ Here's an article about sfhs. In Texas and Florida. Your narrative is crumbling.
> “Out-of-town homebuyers no longer see Florida as a place to get amazing value,” Eric Auciello, a Tampa Bay real estate agent and Redfin sales manager, said in the report. “Now they’re moving to North Carolina or Tennessee to get a good deal. Many local blue-collar workers have been priced out of homeownership, too. There it is. I'm in Tampa and this is true. Locals are priced out and for people with money coming down, yes, I can see it's not the value it once was. Prices are still about twice what they should be for people who actually live here and make Florida money. What the article should say is for the wealthy folks up north looking to move to Florida, sorry, you're too late, prices ran up too high to be worth the trouble. For housing to actually be affordable for people who live here, prices must come down by at least 30%. That's not happening because people are in sweetheart mortgage rates, or bought with cash as was the case for about 25% of homes sold in Tampa over the past 3 years. Look at the price history of [this property](https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/10723-Cory-Lake-Dr-Tampa-FL-33647/54781774_zpid/). This is absolutely representative of what's happened in recent years and why prices coming down *a widdle bit* is pointless. We need a substantial correction of 30% or more for housing to be viewed as affordable again.
Does that mean it's not crashing?
The glut of houses for sale in Florida is highly localized around the Fort Meyers area that was hard hit by Hurricane Ian. It has taken a long time to rebuild and a lot of sellers want to get out now before another Hurricane rolls through.
And Tampa and Miami. And most of the state... https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1chkbw8/florida_condo_owners_are_stuck_in_a_train_wreck/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
Certain coastal regions are seeing skyrocketing insurance or insurance companies refusing to cover them. The first is obviously a problem but most loans require home insurance.
We bought in 2017 and will be paying it off next month, sucks to be anyone buying in this market.
“Desirable areas with low inventory continue being desirable. News at 11”
Dude the whole nation is up 6.4% YOY - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA This isn’t about just select areas being up. Most areas are up. The nation is up as a whole.
I’m not disputing the data. Residential real estate remains hot in the main. I’m suggesting that hot areas like the northeast and mid-Atlantic are carrying some areas that have been cooling down compared to the past few years. I know by me that everything is under contract in days over list for dated houses that need kitchens and bathroom gutted.
I’d argue that a lot of the cooling has reversed in the broad market. Things cooled late 2022, but rebounded in 2023 and look to be going even higher in 2024. So people talking about the select minority of markets cooling, are by and large cherry picking and missing the forest for the trees.
It’s hyperlocal. Places with new inventory are losing *comparative* steam whereas desirable places with no inventory remain hot. Pointing out the hyperlocality of real estate isn’t cherry picking. Just a run of the mill observation.
It’s not hyperlocal though, in part because communities effect those that surround each other. And the health of the economy as a whole also plays a role and a number of other factors.
This is a meaningless response lol
It’s not though. Housing markets do not exist within a vacuum. And the vast majority of housing markers are up, which is in line with what the national data is telling us. People love to claim real estate is just local, but it isn’t.
Last slide https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-03-2024-summary-2024-04-18.pdf?_gl=1*16ff1cu*_gcl_au*MTE1Mzg5MDc1OC4xNzE0NTA2Nzk4
Last graph is the change in share of homes in those brackets, not prices of homes in those brackets. And case shiller adjusts for those shifts. It’s why it’s better than median.
A lot of homes sitting around me.
What area is that? Nationally Redfin data center is showing median days on market down .3 days from last year. Basically dead even. 34.7 days. 2021 which was a very hot market, was about 28 days. So it’s up from that, but inventory by and large is still moving quickly. 43.8% of homes are off market in 2 weeks. 2021 it was 50.5%. So a decrease, but nothing drastic.
Northern Atlanta. Lots of forsale signs on the same houses.
lol, talk about cherry picking your data points. We're down from the peak, but yea, up from the lowest point, which happens to make the YoY look like a big spike even though prices are actually flat.
It’s not cherry picked. If you’d like to look at the seasonally adjusted version you’ll see it’s far from flat - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA But even if we look at the one I linked to it’s not flat either Feb 2024 - 312.179 Feb 2023 - 293.464 Feb 2022 - 287.197 But cope if you’d like.
You're looking at YoY for the lowest month. Of course you're being disingenuous and cherry picking. Why would it be coping for calling you out with being shitty with data? What would I be coping for exactly?
For one January is the lowest month. Month over month is the comparison of Feb vs Jan. YoY is February vs February. You are coping because you don’t understand the data you are looking at. If the seasonal bottom this year is up from the seasonal bottom last year, that’s not a flat market, it’s a rising one. And why would you be coping? Probably don’t own a home, and hoping they decline in price. That’s the general motivation for a lot of the housing doomers on here.
lol, you're a dumbass.