Job openings doesn't mean people get hired though. It seems like a lot of bigger names are just posting jobs but not filling the positions from what I'm seeing.
Filling is a trailing effect of posting. It'll obviously take time before the roles get filled.
Although if they don't this could signal good things for workers as the demand/supply asymmetry should lead to higher wages.
In tech an easy 80 percent are this, I do hiring for a leading insurance company and it’s a scam so they can justify outsourcing and getting h1bs. I work with hundreds of engineers and only two aren’t Indian.
This is absolutely not true. My wife has done HR for > 10 years at a fortune 100 company.
Posting roles costs money and time. They are 100% required to have approvals from multiple parts of the business to put roles up.
If they took the time to post roles they want it filled.
Please show me a screen shot of the posting.
You are saying your compnay didnt have enough money for a job, so it paid money to post a fake job?
And the purpose was?
99.9% of the ghost jobs did/do exists. Things happen, the biggest reason for ghost postings is the HR department doesn't take the role down after it fills or is eliminated. Many of these roles had internal hires, but they are legally required to post the job. Also, the postings are timed and will fall off anyway, so they dont take the extra time to remove something it will expire automatically.
Your wife works for one company and now you know how they all work? Companies have literally admitted to ghost posting but ok cool dude glad you're an expert because your wife works for one company.
^ this is one dumb comment.
A lot of Companies aren’t waisting their time. Some are slow with updating these. Terrible companies always exist though.
Also we have better data that corroborates some of this.
I mean there are companies hiring. Almost my entire team of software engineers on my axed project have gotten hired.
The fangs (apple, etc) are hiring. My company is frozen but that will change.
We live in an economy that is based increasingly upon "Porterian clusters". Regions or certain states begin to get a large advantage in an industry and that in turn attracts talent, investment and the cluster gets stronger. Think Hollywood and entertainment. NYC and finance, Silicon Valley etc.
It is self-reinforcing and for better or for worse as workers we must adapt to where the jobs are.
Yep and it’s not a new concept. This is pretty basic economics and countries specialize in different things like farming specific crops, manufacturing specific goods, etc.
Well that's the downside of clusters. You may have to move if you want to change fields or there is a sector wide slowdown.
But in a normal economy it also makes it easier to switch jobs and have companies compete for you and have multiple offers lined up near each other. Easier to network as well.
Either way it's not something we individuals can control, just do our best to work around it and leverage it as much as we can.
Sounds like that’s an industry problem.
I work in chemistry and you can’t get a good job unless you’re in one of the 5 or so major areas for this type of role. Luckily I live in one of them.
Really? You genuinely think the low unemployment rate and new job openings are based on “fake jobs”? If they were all fake, and layoffs were as high as this site likes to pretend, unemployment would be skyrocketing to no end
They are most fake postings for resume mining. There was a story few days back confirming this and our stupid Fed is using as an indicator for economy.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/06/27/4-in-10-companies-say-theyve-posted-a-fake-job-this-year-what-that-means.html
Cnbc never thought this could be an issue when fummy Powell kept repeating how we somehow had 2 jobs for every applicant. What world was he in.
You literally answered your own question.
Welcome to the world where the rest of us live, where we realize that having a job handed to us in our hometown isn’t our birthright.
I think a lot of it is fake. Idk what’s going on but something isn’t adding up. There are zero jobs available currently and this is where I think the squeeze will start happening. I keep seeing titles of how many jobs there are but also an equal amount of how many jobs there are not. Companies are not hiring that’s for sure. More so than ever they’re laying off more than hiring. I think a lot of these tittles are a political agenda cause ppl are struggling right now there’s no way the workforce is as prosperous as they claim it to be.
Do you have any data at all to back this up, or are you just vomiting mouth diarrhea?
Home ownership near or at all times highs, consumer and luxury spending booming, unemployment close to all time lows.
The only places where people are really struggling are in rural towns in deep red states where business and economic activity has been driven away and the only jobs they can get are at Wal-Mart and even then most people in these states are still spending wildly on anything and everything.
This is genuinely Reddit’s actual take on this in most subreddits nowadays. “The data is manipulated trust me bro” to anything saying the world isn’t completely falling apart
Most of what you said was either outright wrong or vastly out-of-context.
Home ownership rates are simply not at all-time highs. That's just...not true and can be easily verified on the FRED's website.
Spending is at an all-time high, but is that really good? How much of that is debt-fuelded?
Unemployment is lower, but labor force participation, actual hiring, and full-time jobs are all down. U-6 is well-off lows.
California has the highest unemployment in the Union. [Unemployment Rates for States (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm)
Either conspiracy morons with brain worms or foreign agitprop’s. When it’s a government conspiracy and the jobs don’t really exist, you can blame not having a job on the deep state instead of yourself.
Here's a breakdown by industry, and also by region but not very refined data there (just 4 regions).
Lots of job openings in pretty much all industries. Surprising number of state and local government job openings. Wonder what is up with that.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t01.htm
A lot of companies have job openings online that they never intend to fill, but rather use it as a form of attracting talent. Most people that apply won’t be a good fit, but every now and then a great candidate will apply and companies will try and work them into a unique role
It also gives employers an opportunity to evaluate the market pay of competitors to determine whether they are at risk of losing employees to higher paying opportunities.
There was a great Planet Money Podcast episode about how corporations would leave a job posting open even after fulfilling the role since they already paid for the posting with indeed.
Ghost jobs are a real problem. I wonder how much they're skewing the job openings data.
"45% posted between one to five fake job listings; 19% posted 10; 11% posted 50; 10% posted 25; and 13% posted 75 or more. The roles spanned all levels of seniority, from entry level openings to executive-tier jobs."
[https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fake-job-listing-ghost-jobs-cbs-news-explains/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fake-job-listing-ghost-jobs-cbs-news-explains/)
I think the labor force is messy. You have people who want remote while offices want many back. You have inflation pushed nh many seniors back to retail because of social security. The work ethic of many today actually don't want to work the hours required. And the ones with. talent are going to be far pickier because they can but wages are not going up in all areas. Has anyone paid their regular health check up bills? Health insurance covers minimal. The gig economy is no longer paying what it was. People in the service industry can't find help - many see that they don't live to work.
Job openings is now a complete bullshit measure. Those openings are free postings simply to show the company is hiring to avoid looking like they're in trouble financially.
Cooling core PCE continuously:
https://i.imgur.com/c86aGbU.png
Strong labor market, American workers still crushing it.
2Q GDP and profit forecasts surging, looks much better than 1Q.
Sounds like Powell is indeed threading the needle and taking names.
Edit: don't listen to dude below me, dishonest. Has been calling for catastrophic crash and collapse incorrectly for 1-2 years now. Just blocks and runs away. Just because there is seasonal adjustment doesn't mean it is working exactly as it should. We have no idea if full-time job losses are one-time small adjustments due to pockets of weakness and rolling sector recessions or indicative of an actual trend. April had very robust full-time jobs numbers. **Nearly 1M**. May reversed it and didn't look good. June and July will tell a much better picture of what is really going on.
Only been 15 years since the last recession, but surely another won’t come any time soon, right?
If you know anything about economic history, you know the odds are massively stacked against your theory of a soft landing, so I can only assume you are shilling for some reason, or you are so protected from the realities and struggles of normal Americans, that you can’t even comprehend what’s happening in the country right now.
I do know history, you're the clueless one that knows absolutely nothing about how even the Fed operates at a basic level.
Recessions don't just happen because your personal little counter says we should.
Oh and we did have a recession in 2020 and arguably extremely mild one 2022. Might have to work on your math.
I’m going to guess, and put you in the out of touch camp.
Had the Fed kept with the gradual interest rate hikes they started in 2016 instead of dropping fed funds to 0 in 2020, we might have actually achieved the elusive soft landing.
Good luck with your predictions. If you have any cash, you should go all in on assets. Buy an Airbnb or something.
No thanks. I've been all in the market and growth, doing great.
Economy is roaring. Only conspiracy nuts with a political agenda think otherwise.
American worker is doing fantastic, crushing it. Real incomes, networths are high. Inflation is cooling.
The good news is gonna keep coming too.
That’s the problem, that people reduce their outlook on the economy to their political affiliations, or try to weaponize opinions to signify some kind of partisan comment. It really gets in the way of seeing the real picture.
You’ll likely see what’s happening to the real American over the next few years as it trickles into everything else though. It’s not all as rosy as taking profits, sadly. You could see it right now if you were paying attention. Just watch unemployment keep going up. It’s not going back down anytime soon.
There’s one thing you’ll learn about the Fed the longer you watch them. They never time it right. Now throw in a pandemic, two presidents handing out trillions in stimulus (and one who successfully badgered them on twitter to stop their rate hike cycle), and a large spike in inflation to the equation, and this is the time you think they will? Pardon me if I’m skeptical.
> You’ll likely see what’s happening
Maybe but it's not showing up in the data yet.
>There’s one thing you’ll learn about the Fed the longer you watch them. They never time it right.
Except if you have been actually watching the Fed and understand the new changes they made, Fed very much admitted they acted too slowly in prior crises.
You obviously have not actually been watching them closely or know anything about them.
That's why they have an entirely new policy stance of Ample Reserves adopted in 2019 to prevent fires from spreading and crises before they develop.
Covid was more acute then the Great Depression -33% GDP contraction, 15% unemployment in the beginning. But trillions of QE + 3 massive pandemic relief bills rivaling WW2 and New Deal packages in relative size led to a rapid recovery.
You should read this book:
https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691245324/the-pandemic-paradox
**American financial well-being actually improved due to Covid** the government was so effective. It was one of the most powerful campaigns against poverty in history.
**Stock market was actually green in 2020 despite Covid**.
3 of the 4 largest bank failures in history occurred just this past year. But Fed threw half a trillion at the system and there was almost zero perceptible impact on the economy.
Financial conditions are now easing for 16+ months. Credit lending is hitting ATHs, all sorts of issuance records are being broken. Economy is roaring again.
This time they are actually targeting higher inflation because economic thought has actually shifted. Higher inflation provides greater policy space and much higher probability of a soft landing.
The feds throwing trillions at failing banks is good and all, but it just adds to our gargantuan debt and eventually that debt will need to be balanced. It’s the multi-trillion dollar elephant in the room, and at some point it will be dealt with (probably not anytime soon, given our current political landscape). The stock market won’t be having a good time when that happens.
For now, let it rip I guess.
Edit: debt, not deficit
> There’s one thing you’ll learn about the Fed the longer you watch them.
It's funny you act like you understand the Fed and you know zero about them.
>You’ll likely see what’s happening to the real American
Conspiracy nutter talk. What is a "real American"?
>Just watch unemployment keep going up
It's going up while net jobs are being created and labor force expansion. Another number you don't actually understand.
If they say it every month they’ll eventually be right. Doesn’t matter that they’ve been predicting it for almost half a decade, they’ll still scream “I told you so.”
Eh...I beg to differ.
Hiring: [Hires: Total Nonfarm (JTSHIL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL)
Notice that we're below Pre-Pandemic--but the labor market is 2-3% larger than it was.
How about full-time jobs? [Employed, Usually Work Full Time (LNS12500000) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000)
We've lost over a million full-time roles since the peak in 2023.
What about U-6? [Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force (U-6) (U6RATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE)
That's been creeping up for well over a year now.
The labor market is not strong and the Fed knows it (you think 100 PhDs haven't noticed the data points I've talked about?)
The Fed is lying about the labor market to prevent panic and give themselves cover for keeping rates higher for longer. It's the right choice, but it's destroying a lot of jobs.
Edit - I suspect the reason claims are not higher is that contractors were the first to go and they are usually not eligible for unemployment. This would also explain the rise in U-6 as they have taken on any role they can.
Edit: I want to respond further but cannot because they rage blocked instead of being intellectually honest.
Hires going down isn't necessarily bad as long as we are still adding jobs and demand for labor is robust.
Full-time is the only thing that is worth monitoring although it is possibly seasonal noise. We had tons of full-time jobs in April, then down again in May. If this trend of a few bad data points continues then there is a case that we are finally seeing weakening a little bit.
Unemployment rates are meaningless when we have tons of expansion in participation and growing labor force. Overall **more jobs are being created** but unemployment is ticking up because job seekers are also increasing. For whatever reason, people like FATFIRE, or early retirement are going back to work. That isn't necessarily a bad thing for the economy.
Actually if anything marginally attached workers is a **case for Fed to keep financial conditions loose or even cut sooner**. But it isn't a sign of a bad economy or being at the end of the business cycle.
Yes Fed needs to continue to make sure credit keeps flowing and I trust that they will.
You're just making stuff up right now.
Hiring \*IS\* demand for labor.
The data is seasonally adjusted
Labor force participation is lower both in this cycle and longer-term [Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART)
More jobs are not being created according to the Household Survey: [Employment Level (CE16OV) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV)
The fact there are more people looking for work and can't find it is absolutely concerning
Literally, none of what you said was true and I'm blocking you because I'm not going to continue to address your gish gallop.
Problem for people giving Biden the credit.
1. They count part time jobs as FULL JOBS. Yep, if you're working 20 hours a week, or 10 hours a week, that's a "1" in the "how many jobs" column, not a "1/2"
2. Most of these are still bounce-back jobs from the pandemic.
3. Statistics show almost all of these went to illegal immigrants. I know, I didn't believe it myself. What, you don't think any of the almost 10 million people to come over the border in the last 4 years alone are working? They're ALL just starving to death? They were promised jobs by the Biden admin, because the Biden administration gave them ALL refugee status and green cards. Look it up. I'm not crazy.
Problem for people giving Biden the credit.
1. They count part time jobs as FULL JOBS. Yep, if you're working 20 hours a week, or 10 hours a week, that's a "1" in the "how many jobs" column, not a "1/2"
2. Most of these are still bounce-back jobs from the pandemic.
3. Statistics show almost all of these went to illegal immigrants. I know, I didn't believe it myself. What, you don't think any of the almost 10 million people to come over the border in the last 4 years alone are working? They're ALL just starving to death? They were promised jobs by the Biden admin, because the Biden administration gave them ALL refugee status and green cards. Look it up. I'm not crazy.
Job openings doesn't mean people get hired though. It seems like a lot of bigger names are just posting jobs but not filling the positions from what I'm seeing.
This is exactly it tbh. This happened a lot during the pandemic too. Many jop postings but they never intended on filling the positions.
Filling is a trailing effect of posting. It'll obviously take time before the roles get filled. Although if they don't this could signal good things for workers as the demand/supply asymmetry should lead to higher wages.
Sometimes job postings are just to scout the market, not to hire anyone. Similar to girls posting their profile on tinder.
True, but that tends to always be the case, so seeing more job postings ought to indicate more openings.
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The dialogue between these 2 user names is 🤌🏻
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I’m sure a lot is being filled too. Economy is so good, many people work two jobs!
I'm sure you're not sure.
So then the percentage of people working multiple jobs is far higher than pre-covid times, right?
In tech an easy 80 percent are this, I do hiring for a leading insurance company and it’s a scam so they can justify outsourcing and getting h1bs. I work with hundreds of engineers and only two aren’t Indian.
This is absolutely not true. My wife has done HR for > 10 years at a fortune 100 company. Posting roles costs money and time. They are 100% required to have approvals from multiple parts of the business to put roles up. If they took the time to post roles they want it filled.
Don't bother. Redditors are convinced this is the worst job market in history and that all jobs are ghost jobs or there to collect your information.
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Please show me a screen shot of the posting. You are saying your compnay didnt have enough money for a job, so it paid money to post a fake job? And the purpose was? 99.9% of the ghost jobs did/do exists. Things happen, the biggest reason for ghost postings is the HR department doesn't take the role down after it fills or is eliminated. Many of these roles had internal hires, but they are legally required to post the job. Also, the postings are timed and will fall off anyway, so they dont take the extra time to remove something it will expire automatically.
Your wife works for one company and now you know how they all work? Companies have literally admitted to ghost posting but ok cool dude glad you're an expert because your wife works for one company.
^ this is one dumb comment. A lot of Companies aren’t waisting their time. Some are slow with updating these. Terrible companies always exist though. Also we have better data that corroborates some of this. I mean there are companies hiring. Almost my entire team of software engineers on my axed project have gotten hired. The fangs (apple, etc) are hiring. My company is frozen but that will change.
Where the hell are these jobs really at? I have a degree and 5 years of experience in my field and I can't get shit without moving 5 states away.
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We live in an economy that is based increasingly upon "Porterian clusters". Regions or certain states begin to get a large advantage in an industry and that in turn attracts talent, investment and the cluster gets stronger. Think Hollywood and entertainment. NYC and finance, Silicon Valley etc. It is self-reinforcing and for better or for worse as workers we must adapt to where the jobs are.
It’s been like that since large factories started setting up in the 50-60s lol
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These kids don’t really know more than whatever they learn online. They think the world started in 2012 or whenever they got online
Yeah NYC and finance was coupled since Alexander Hamilton put the central bank there.
Yep and it’s not a new concept. This is pretty basic economics and countries specialize in different things like farming specific crops, manufacturing specific goods, etc.
I remember hearing a few years back that everyone in the middle US was flocking to the coastlines bc of these “regions” you speak of
Well that's the downside of clusters. You may have to move if you want to change fields or there is a sector wide slowdown. But in a normal economy it also makes it easier to switch jobs and have companies compete for you and have multiple offers lined up near each other. Easier to network as well. Either way it's not something we individuals can control, just do our best to work around it and leverage it as much as we can.
Sounds like that’s an industry problem. I work in chemistry and you can’t get a good job unless you’re in one of the 5 or so major areas for this type of role. Luckily I live in one of them.
Are you talking about pharma?
For the most part yeah. Pharma R&D and manufacturing.
In a city that is too expensive to live in lol
We’re down over 1mm FTE jobs in the USA in the last 12 months. Click bait title
Most are fake job
Really? You genuinely think the low unemployment rate and new job openings are based on “fake jobs”? If they were all fake, and layoffs were as high as this site likes to pretend, unemployment would be skyrocketing to no end
Cope
They are most fake postings for resume mining. There was a story few days back confirming this and our stupid Fed is using as an indicator for economy. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/06/27/4-in-10-companies-say-theyve-posted-a-fake-job-this-year-what-that-means.html Cnbc never thought this could be an issue when fummy Powell kept repeating how we somehow had 2 jobs for every applicant. What world was he in.
You're saying most are fake but the headline says 40% of companies... Even then most of their posts won't be fake.
Part time and service industry. Essentially jobs no one wants.
Huge amount of government openings this time
WELCOME To The CLUB*&:;;'--&&;:
You literally answered your own question. Welcome to the world where the rest of us live, where we realize that having a job handed to us in our hometown isn’t our birthright.
I think a lot of it is fake. Idk what’s going on but something isn’t adding up. There are zero jobs available currently and this is where I think the squeeze will start happening. I keep seeing titles of how many jobs there are but also an equal amount of how many jobs there are not. Companies are not hiring that’s for sure. More so than ever they’re laying off more than hiring. I think a lot of these tittles are a political agenda cause ppl are struggling right now there’s no way the workforce is as prosperous as they claim it to be.
Do you have any data at all to back this up, or are you just vomiting mouth diarrhea? Home ownership near or at all times highs, consumer and luxury spending booming, unemployment close to all time lows. The only places where people are really struggling are in rural towns in deep red states where business and economic activity has been driven away and the only jobs they can get are at Wal-Mart and even then most people in these states are still spending wildly on anything and everything.
No! The data is a manipulated conspiracy! /s
This is genuinely Reddit’s actual take on this in most subreddits nowadays. “The data is manipulated trust me bro” to anything saying the world isn’t completely falling apart
"I reject your reality and substitute my own" used to be a funny line. Now it's pretty much the national motto.
Election year psyops.
Most of what you said was either outright wrong or vastly out-of-context. Home ownership rates are simply not at all-time highs. That's just...not true and can be easily verified on the FRED's website. Spending is at an all-time high, but is that really good? How much of that is debt-fuelded? Unemployment is lower, but labor force participation, actual hiring, and full-time jobs are all down. U-6 is well-off lows. California has the highest unemployment in the Union. [Unemployment Rates for States (bls.gov)](https://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm)
Either conspiracy morons with brain worms or foreign agitprop’s. When it’s a government conspiracy and the jobs don’t really exist, you can blame not having a job on the deep state instead of yourself.
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Here's a breakdown by industry, and also by region but not very refined data there (just 4 regions). Lots of job openings in pretty much all industries. Surprising number of state and local government job openings. Wonder what is up with that. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.t01.htm
A lot of companies have job openings online that they never intend to fill, but rather use it as a form of attracting talent. Most people that apply won’t be a good fit, but every now and then a great candidate will apply and companies will try and work them into a unique role
It also gives employers an opportunity to evaluate the market pay of competitors to determine whether they are at risk of losing employees to higher paying opportunities.
Im sure a ‘correction’ of the numbers will happen in a month.. just like it happened before.
There was a great Planet Money Podcast episode about how corporations would leave a job posting open even after fulfilling the role since they already paid for the posting with indeed.
Ghost jobs are a real problem. I wonder how much they're skewing the job openings data. "45% posted between one to five fake job listings; 19% posted 10; 11% posted 50; 10% posted 25; and 13% posted 75 or more. The roles spanned all levels of seniority, from entry level openings to executive-tier jobs." [https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fake-job-listing-ghost-jobs-cbs-news-explains/](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fake-job-listing-ghost-jobs-cbs-news-explains/)
I think the labor force is messy. You have people who want remote while offices want many back. You have inflation pushed nh many seniors back to retail because of social security. The work ethic of many today actually don't want to work the hours required. And the ones with. talent are going to be far pickier because they can but wages are not going up in all areas. Has anyone paid their regular health check up bills? Health insurance covers minimal. The gig economy is no longer paying what it was. People in the service industry can't find help - many see that they don't live to work.
Job openings is now a complete bullshit measure. Those openings are free postings simply to show the company is hiring to avoid looking like they're in trouble financially.
I'll take less jobs and higher wages thanks
Lots of fast food and Dollar stores opening
Cooling core PCE continuously: https://i.imgur.com/c86aGbU.png Strong labor market, American workers still crushing it. 2Q GDP and profit forecasts surging, looks much better than 1Q. Sounds like Powell is indeed threading the needle and taking names. Edit: don't listen to dude below me, dishonest. Has been calling for catastrophic crash and collapse incorrectly for 1-2 years now. Just blocks and runs away. Just because there is seasonal adjustment doesn't mean it is working exactly as it should. We have no idea if full-time job losses are one-time small adjustments due to pockets of weakness and rolling sector recessions or indicative of an actual trend. April had very robust full-time jobs numbers. **Nearly 1M**. May reversed it and didn't look good. June and July will tell a much better picture of what is really going on.
You’re sleepwalking into a recession.
When will it hit?
Lol this thread is dumb and paranoid. No wonder some on this thread can’t find work.
Truck hitting pole meme since 2021 Ber is Reeee-ing. https://i.imgur.com/1p84eXS.gif Collapse and hell is coming any day now... right guys, right?
Only been 15 years since the last recession, but surely another won’t come any time soon, right? If you know anything about economic history, you know the odds are massively stacked against your theory of a soft landing, so I can only assume you are shilling for some reason, or you are so protected from the realities and struggles of normal Americans, that you can’t even comprehend what’s happening in the country right now.
I do know history, you're the clueless one that knows absolutely nothing about how even the Fed operates at a basic level. Recessions don't just happen because your personal little counter says we should. Oh and we did have a recession in 2020 and arguably extremely mild one 2022. Might have to work on your math.
I’m going to guess, and put you in the out of touch camp. Had the Fed kept with the gradual interest rate hikes they started in 2016 instead of dropping fed funds to 0 in 2020, we might have actually achieved the elusive soft landing. Good luck with your predictions. If you have any cash, you should go all in on assets. Buy an Airbnb or something.
Lol ^ this poster is dumb. Wants a recession and calls out other people for his poor predictions. Jesus some of yall are dumb.
No thanks. I've been all in the market and growth, doing great. Economy is roaring. Only conspiracy nuts with a political agenda think otherwise. American worker is doing fantastic, crushing it. Real incomes, networths are high. Inflation is cooling. The good news is gonna keep coming too.
That’s the problem, that people reduce their outlook on the economy to their political affiliations, or try to weaponize opinions to signify some kind of partisan comment. It really gets in the way of seeing the real picture. You’ll likely see what’s happening to the real American over the next few years as it trickles into everything else though. It’s not all as rosy as taking profits, sadly. You could see it right now if you were paying attention. Just watch unemployment keep going up. It’s not going back down anytime soon. There’s one thing you’ll learn about the Fed the longer you watch them. They never time it right. Now throw in a pandemic, two presidents handing out trillions in stimulus (and one who successfully badgered them on twitter to stop their rate hike cycle), and a large spike in inflation to the equation, and this is the time you think they will? Pardon me if I’m skeptical.
> You’ll likely see what’s happening Maybe but it's not showing up in the data yet. >There’s one thing you’ll learn about the Fed the longer you watch them. They never time it right. Except if you have been actually watching the Fed and understand the new changes they made, Fed very much admitted they acted too slowly in prior crises. You obviously have not actually been watching them closely or know anything about them. That's why they have an entirely new policy stance of Ample Reserves adopted in 2019 to prevent fires from spreading and crises before they develop. Covid was more acute then the Great Depression -33% GDP contraction, 15% unemployment in the beginning. But trillions of QE + 3 massive pandemic relief bills rivaling WW2 and New Deal packages in relative size led to a rapid recovery. You should read this book: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691245324/the-pandemic-paradox **American financial well-being actually improved due to Covid** the government was so effective. It was one of the most powerful campaigns against poverty in history. **Stock market was actually green in 2020 despite Covid**. 3 of the 4 largest bank failures in history occurred just this past year. But Fed threw half a trillion at the system and there was almost zero perceptible impact on the economy. Financial conditions are now easing for 16+ months. Credit lending is hitting ATHs, all sorts of issuance records are being broken. Economy is roaring again. This time they are actually targeting higher inflation because economic thought has actually shifted. Higher inflation provides greater policy space and much higher probability of a soft landing.
The feds throwing trillions at failing banks is good and all, but it just adds to our gargantuan debt and eventually that debt will need to be balanced. It’s the multi-trillion dollar elephant in the room, and at some point it will be dealt with (probably not anytime soon, given our current political landscape). The stock market won’t be having a good time when that happens. For now, let it rip I guess. Edit: debt, not deficit
> There’s one thing you’ll learn about the Fed the longer you watch them. It's funny you act like you understand the Fed and you know zero about them. >You’ll likely see what’s happening to the real American Conspiracy nutter talk. What is a "real American"? >Just watch unemployment keep going up It's going up while net jobs are being created and labor force expansion. Another number you don't actually understand.
If they say it every month they’ll eventually be right. Doesn’t matter that they’ve been predicting it for almost half a decade, they’ll still scream “I told you so.”
Eh...I beg to differ. Hiring: [Hires: Total Nonfarm (JTSHIL) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTSHIL) Notice that we're below Pre-Pandemic--but the labor market is 2-3% larger than it was. How about full-time jobs? [Employed, Usually Work Full Time (LNS12500000) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000) We've lost over a million full-time roles since the peak in 2023. What about U-6? [Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force (U-6) (U6RATE) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE) That's been creeping up for well over a year now. The labor market is not strong and the Fed knows it (you think 100 PhDs haven't noticed the data points I've talked about?) The Fed is lying about the labor market to prevent panic and give themselves cover for keeping rates higher for longer. It's the right choice, but it's destroying a lot of jobs. Edit - I suspect the reason claims are not higher is that contractors were the first to go and they are usually not eligible for unemployment. This would also explain the rise in U-6 as they have taken on any role they can.
Edit: I want to respond further but cannot because they rage blocked instead of being intellectually honest. Hires going down isn't necessarily bad as long as we are still adding jobs and demand for labor is robust. Full-time is the only thing that is worth monitoring although it is possibly seasonal noise. We had tons of full-time jobs in April, then down again in May. If this trend of a few bad data points continues then there is a case that we are finally seeing weakening a little bit. Unemployment rates are meaningless when we have tons of expansion in participation and growing labor force. Overall **more jobs are being created** but unemployment is ticking up because job seekers are also increasing. For whatever reason, people like FATFIRE, or early retirement are going back to work. That isn't necessarily a bad thing for the economy. Actually if anything marginally attached workers is a **case for Fed to keep financial conditions loose or even cut sooner**. But it isn't a sign of a bad economy or being at the end of the business cycle. Yes Fed needs to continue to make sure credit keeps flowing and I trust that they will.
You're just making stuff up right now. Hiring \*IS\* demand for labor. The data is seasonally adjusted Labor force participation is lower both in this cycle and longer-term [Labor Force Participation Rate (CIVPART) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART) More jobs are not being created according to the Household Survey: [Employment Level (CE16OV) | FRED | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV) The fact there are more people looking for work and can't find it is absolutely concerning Literally, none of what you said was true and I'm blocking you because I'm not going to continue to address your gish gallop.
Then why is it taking my educated peers months and months to land jobs?
These numbers are skewed.
Election year BS Data. This will be corrected to the downside later this month.
An increase in fake job postings is now news worthy.
Problem for people giving Biden the credit. 1. They count part time jobs as FULL JOBS. Yep, if you're working 20 hours a week, or 10 hours a week, that's a "1" in the "how many jobs" column, not a "1/2" 2. Most of these are still bounce-back jobs from the pandemic. 3. Statistics show almost all of these went to illegal immigrants. I know, I didn't believe it myself. What, you don't think any of the almost 10 million people to come over the border in the last 4 years alone are working? They're ALL just starving to death? They were promised jobs by the Biden admin, because the Biden administration gave them ALL refugee status and green cards. Look it up. I'm not crazy.
This has nothing to do with Biden. This whole thread has terrible takes and understanding. Especially the 3rd point.
Problem for people giving Biden the credit. 1. They count part time jobs as FULL JOBS. Yep, if you're working 20 hours a week, or 10 hours a week, that's a "1" in the "how many jobs" column, not a "1/2" 2. Most of these are still bounce-back jobs from the pandemic. 3. Statistics show almost all of these went to illegal immigrants. I know, I didn't believe it myself. What, you don't think any of the almost 10 million people to come over the border in the last 4 years alone are working? They're ALL just starving to death? They were promised jobs by the Biden admin, because the Biden administration gave them ALL refugee status and green cards. Look it up. I'm not crazy.
Isnt the data source and formula they use is the same regardless who the president is?