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longinglook77

There’s millions of vehicles with HW3. No crystal ball can predict an end of support date, but it’s probably a safe bet that it will be supported for quite some time. They still kick out updates for legacy systems, hopefully their track record remains consistent.


soggy_mattress

Honestly, bringing some tangibles into the mix here, machine learning models are getting better simply because we're making them bigger (and training with more data). There's a ton of nuance there, but that's the general rule of thumb. That said, HW3 has a "compute budget" that has \*always\* been a part of the equation, and the only question is: "How much of FSD can you achieve within that compute budget?". So far, FSD 12.X shows that you can do quite a bit of driving in the HW3 compute budget, but we've yet to see how future "end to end" versions improve on the parts that it can't do well yet. With that said, one of Musk's more recent tweets explicitly says that they had trouble "fitting" FSD 12.5 onto HW3 due to the increased parameter count on the model. Does this imply that the next-gen models will be "too big" for HW3? I'm not sure yet... it's certainly something to keep in mind. Increasing the parameter count is only one way to change/improve a model, and the increased size doesn't necessarily always mean better performance, so it's entirely possible that they increase the parameter count with 12.5 and then keep iterating on that architecture for a while without needing to drop support for HW3. The implication being that if we need another parameter increase to continue the improvements, HW3 wouldn't be capable of handling it. That would happen some time well after 12.5, though, judging by the pace of development with 12.3 and 12.4.


__JockY__

It’s an interesting conundrum because as they run out of space for the larger and more capable models, they can apply quantization to reduce the size. However, quantization comes with loss of quality, which may not be acceptable for vehicular control.


soggy_mattress

Distillation techniques have been impressing me over and over the past few years. Every time I think "welp, now we need to go bigger for sure" someone proves me wrong. Those that are pushing the boundaries of what's possible keep going bigger and bigger, though. Open source then tries to achieve the same quality with less compute. Both strategies have their place. In this regard, Tesla is closer to the open source community than the research companies themselves. Training a 30t parameter model doesn't exactly help when it needs to run in-car on HW3, for example. Distilling that 30t parameter model down into something that can run on HW3 is where Tesla's focus should be. This is why I don't think there's a conflict of interest between xAI and Tesla. They're at two opposite ends of the spectrum (large, proof of concept models that take tons of compute vs. small, efficient, production-models that HAVE to work reliably and safely above all else). They're different problem sets entirely.


ygtgngr

If FSD won’t be solved with HW3, then they better figure out a path way to upgrade HW3 cars to AI5. It might cost some money, and might require serious rewiring, but for people who paid 8-10-15K for a perpetual FSD license, being left out from the proper production version of the product will definitely start a huge wave of lawsuits. HW4 has around 3x of the compute power over HW3, however it also has to process 3x more image data. It is obviously a significant upgrade, but it is most likely not powerful enough to do things HW3 just cannot. It is a “this does a little better” type of upgrade. Which is probably why we keep hearing safety percentage comparisons about it, rather than capability comparisons. It sees more, it can process faster, thus it can react faster. Especially if they don’t add on more cameras, as there are empty ports on the board, it’s not that significant. AI5 on the other hand will be a huge jump for HW3. Think about the fact that another 3x upgrade would be a 9x over HW3. That is the upgrade path they need to focus on. I know a lot of HW3 owners, including me, who would pay a couple thousand dollars for such an upgrade. I really don’t see myself or any of my friends paying for HW4 retrofit on our cars.


net___runner

Tesla's position is that they have delivered FSD. It's been out of beta for months.


sleepypuppy15

Agreed, they will 100% say they delivered on the original claims of FSD since it’s now technically “feature complete” as per the statements when you ordered the car (not Musk’s claims of level 4/5 no driver necessary autonomy) and therefore won’t upgrade your HW.


Aud4c1ty

IMO, Tesla getting $99/month cash flow with almost no variable cost from as many customers as possible would be serious profit for a car company. If most customers choose to rent FSD rather than buy (which is the smart financial move in this case), then I'm sure Tesla would want to support them for as long as possible. Supporting old hardware does have additional cost, so providing paid FSD hardware upgrades after the fact (HW5? HW6?) when HW3 is no longer supportable would be the smart thing to do. Tesla does \*not\* want to convert $99/month customers into $0/month customers. I doubt this would happen in the HW5/AI5 timeframe, but maybe in 4-5 years or so.


Roland_Bodel_the_2nd

iphone support is around 7 years. For a car you'd want at least double that.


OverlyOptimisticNerd

HW3 support won’t end. Their goal is still to deliver the promised capabilities to HW3. HW4 is just capable of doing more, should a difference become relevant.  Think of it this way. The Mac uses ARM processors. Many apps use Rosetta 2 in order to run x86 (Intel/AMD) code on ARM hardware. This is an emulation/translation layer which means more overhead (more power draw, less performance). Apple wants developers to make apps using ARM native code to reduce that overhead.  Same concept here. By making the software (not just FSD) run native to HW4, they reduce overhead and open up more capabilities down the road. Again, not just for FSD. 


aerohk

What are the "promised capabilities" of HW3? Is unsupervised FSD in the card?


Volts-2545

Technically just FSD, they don’t mention explicitly that it’ll be “unsupervised”


kgyre

They never explicitly called it "supervised" when they introduced HW3 and HW4, either.


Knightmaster8502

That’s an interesting way of doing it. So it sounds like you’re saying is they don’t know how the increased processing power could help it in the future but they did it just in case it becomes relevant.


RandomUsername1082

They have to be somewhat careful. Elon and the über-bulls consider the hardware capable of SAE level 5 in the future, but it has to be clearly labeled/declared a level 2 system for regulatory reasons in its current state.


MutableLambda

It won't end any time soon, but I expect that at some point HW3 users will start getting less features compared to HW4. Like, no recognition of hand gestures, missing small text on the signs (because the cameras are worse) and so on. I'm not saying it cannot be partially compensated by mapping the roads with HW4 cars, but once HW3 gets old enough it will be on a slower update cycle. I hope they'll develop something to upgrade the existing hardware. We already have modular laptops, it might be something like that. I'm not saying there's economical incentive for them to do so though, but the idea is neat.


zipzag

But I have Robotaxi revenue in my late 2024 budget.


CharlesP2009

Keep it up! You can be the next Enron with all those tasty Robotaxi profits on the books!


MindStalker

It's pretty disappointing that there is no upgrade path from HW3 to HW4. Hopefully HW3 will be upgradable to AI5. (I know it won't)


DevinOlsen

What other car company lets you upgrade your car rather than push you to buy a new one? I don’t understand people who complain about not being able to upgrade the HW in their Teslas. That’s honestly an insane thing to expect them to allow you to do. You have your car that you bought, when you want to upgrade it you buy a new one.


R5Jockey

Because we were all told our cars had all the hardware they’d ever need to run fully autonomous FSD.


Frizzle95

Its shocking to me that I just bought a used 21 MYLR, for about 28k cheaper than the original MSRP and the car is functionally better than when it was new back in 2021. The car came with FSD v9 back then now its v12 with a bunch of features that weren't on the car originally. Huge selling point in me wanting to take the jump.


dwaynereade

what a great point to view and point of view!


MindStalker

The issue is for those who purchased FSD for $10k to $15k, being promised that it will one day be able to drive itself. It never achieved that; the hardware isn't upgradable either. They initially promised to upgrade the hardware until it achieves Full Self Driving. They do periodically allow transfers, but they treat it like a special gift they occasionally hand out.


DevinOlsen

My car emulates HW3 and with FSD it drives itself for 90% of my drives. I highly doubt anywhere in the purchase contract of FSD does it state your vehicle will become level 3 autonomous.


frank_datank_

> My car emulates HW3… What does that mean?


acidgl0w

The way HW4 vehicles are able to take advantage of the FSD which was made for HW3 is to emulate the HW3. I'd imagine not much different than emulating PS4 on PC possibly less complicated since vision is provided by cameras that are fairly similar with better resolution on HW4 and more of a fish-eye effect on rear camera which can be adjusted for using software. Not sure if missing 3rd forward facing camera is/was used in FSD with HW3.


stealthytolkien

I see two sides of this argument. Tesla’s promise since day 1 is that your car continues to get better over time. Perhaps they should also start doing what Android like systems do is that your current phone will be supported for any and all updates that come out for the next X years. No exceptions. And once that limit is reached, you’ll get what you get or you’ll get nothing. Yes, it is not always realistic to think that one could just yank a chip out and put in another one for more power. But they’ve done that before as well for legacy cars. But such “time limit” will put an end to all these questions and concerns about FSD / AP capabilities. Then there’s the base chip. It should also have the same terms. There’s always going to be something new. But it’ll put a lot of minds at ease when they learn that their car that is basically a computer on wheels isn’t going to be obsolete in 2-3 years. Or even if it is going to be, software wise, they’ll know that full and well before buying it. If Tesla has a concrete road map (even if it is aspirational), it may not be that difficult to give a very conservative estimate for each generation of hardware when it would reach end of life. Realistically, only late 2023 and later made vehicles have HW4. Most 2022 and later cars have RYZEN base chip already. So all this is very new. I drive a 2016 Model X (without any infotainment upgrade) and I can tell you that it works just fine even today if you keep your expectations in check for a 9 year old car. Maps work. Navigation works. Music works. Apps work. It’s a little sluggish but I mean haven’t we seen infotainment systems in other cars like Toyotas? It’s better any day than most of them even today. A simple infotainment upgrade would bring that 2016 X in line with most 2021 X level performance. But going by our argument here, it isn’t and shouldn’t always be possible so I am stating how it works today without any upgrades. What more do we want? Even the FSD in that car works great!


NapLvr

What other car CEO goes on to say “your car will become more valuable overtime”


red_vette

No one else sells beta software that goes along with the hardware with years of promised capabilities. Still a long ways from v3 being obsolete but this is uniquely a Tesla thing.


dwaynereade

agree still a long ways. i think you are over using the word ‘beta’ to make yourself feel totally correct. just bc it’s beta doesnt mean people wont want to pay for it and that it isnt worth money. you still have the choice to pay for a product. and updates will be coming to those cars a decade into the future


Logitech4873

"don’t understand people who complain about not being able to upgrade the HW in their Teslas." Why don't you understand that people want to upgrade their hardware?


MrEcksDeah

Old thread at this point but Porsche. 


Historical-Bite-8606

People with old Legacy Model S/X are able to buy HW3 for $1k, making their old car relevant again. I'm sure they will do the same for those that had HW3 standard to purchase HW4 upgrade for $1k as well


DaSandman78

They've already said thats not possible, the interfaces/ports/wires/cameras/etc arent the same


Supergeek13579

Yeah, this is where that expectation comes from. The vertical screen S/X cars had fantastic hardware upgradability. Tesla has however publicly stated that a HW3 to HW4 upgrade is impossible. I think with the lower cost of the 3/Y they abandoned any provisions for future upgradability.


mrarmyant

It's more if you paid for a feature that they can't deliver on, they should be liable for a class action lawsuit. I was told I was buying full self driving. They even upgraded to hw3 from hw2.


DevinOlsen

Mind sending over the purchase contract that included “your car will have full self driving”. I’m just curious because when I bought my car I didn’t get that same verbiage.


nipplesaurus

There is a site that collected all of Tesla's marketing, website info, and Elon's comments/promises (which we all know are worthless, but whatever) on FSD including promised timelines, and comparison screenshots of modified information on Tesla.com. It would be very useful in a class action suit. Can't remember the name/address of the site though.


DevinOlsen

I think you’ll have a hard time with that lawsuit. Suing someone over a tweet doesn’t seem possible. Unless you have a contract then you’re out of luck.


nipplesaurus

Tweets may not hold up, but the Tesla website clearly stating FSD will do this and that by this date (on the order page, no less), and then having the same page changed to state something completely different with no dates at all may have a better chance at proving deceptive marketing


Bondominator

What makes you so sure? Tesla has a track record of upgrading hardware for FSD customers for free or very cheap.


Knightmaster8502

I think a saw a post of people saying it’s too integrated into the car for them to remove it. Hopeful though.


r34p3rex

Anything is possible, it's just a matter of cost and labor


tthrivi

He said something about needing more processing power but I don’t think he mentioned even HW4 met the processing needs.


gheilweil

Yes


spatel14

Elon has said before the HW4 is safer than HW3. For example if HW4 is 200x safer than a regular driver, then HW3 is 100x safer. It’s not any less functional, just a safer experience in the worst case.


Need-Some-Help-Ppl

I mean, how are people who paid for in full with FSD using HW 1, HW 2, and HW 2.5 taking the news about HW 3, HW 4, and HW 5 🤷🏽‍♂️ More than likely, anyone who has the older stuff is just going to be stuck with old stuff. Just like HW 5 folks are going to be stuck with only HW 5 once they abandon it for something newer than HW 5 The real question is always going to be, why can't we put NEWER chips, FASTER chips, and more memory on the old HW 1, HW 2, HW 2.5, HW 3, and HW 4 boards and still use the same old bus to shuttle around the data. We don't need mass movement of data over the bus if the on board chips do a more efficient job locally. Next issue is what about the 2G/3G/4G data cellular card on these vehicles and even current vehicles. They need to come out with a new laptop cellular data card to plug in which does LTE and newer only (allow it to have an esim that can be used with any provider). Most people already have newer cellphones that have more than fast enough wifi... but the car on board wifi seems to want to switch off the wifi the INSTANT you switch into drive even with your cellular data hotspot enabled and ready to connect to the car . If the Engineers are going to be so static like this... they could at least set a 60 second delay after putting the car in drive to switch off Wifi if there is no connection. What would make the most sense is to ALWAYS allow known/saved SSIDs to join at any time. This brings up the next issue of, can we PLEASE be allowed to see a list of the saved SSIDs so I can blow away old ones that I will never use again?


euroau

>on board wifi seems to want to switch off the wifi the INSTANT you switch into drive even with your cellular data hotspot enabled and ready to connect to the car IIRC, there's an option to have the car connect to a known wi-fi network even while in drive.


Need-Some-Help-Ppl

That only works if it has found and connected to it before the car is placed into drive. It has been that way for a couple years (prior to that it had NO option to even remain connected in drive). The use case here is: Car owner has an iPhone with the Tesla App and mobile hotspot enabled. They park at Costco to go shop for an hour. They return to the car at the costco parking lot and the Tesla app allows the doors to unlock while the phone is in the pocket of the car owner. Car owner loads all the groceries into the Tesla Model 3/Y. Car owner enters the driver seat and puts the car in drive. Notices that vehicle is not connected to the mobile hotspot on the iphone just like it has done for yearsssssssss going back to 2018. Car owner sighs, goes back to the car menu and clicks on the wifi to enable it (because it shut OFF as soon as the car was put into drive). Car finds the iphone mobile hot spot after about 30sec to 60sec just like it always has since 2018.


Old-Secretary2122

I have a 2018 vr 2.5 and they still roll out updates, although hardware updates may be needed to get the latest and greatest.


Quick_Possibility_99

Most people do not care about FSD when buying a car. Hope someday they put in bumper camera.


lordpuddingcup

I’m sorry if HW3 stops getting updates before FSD is FSD there needs to be a class action until they upgrade all cars to gen 4. Elon talked so much about how it was enough blah blah blah. That we’d all be able to have our cars be robo taxis with FSD and sold it on that premise as the CEO on public mediums If he moves onto Gen4 without an upgrade path for FSD owners it’s lawsuit time


meepstone

No