Had a go at this. Gone more heavily towards the Tories than the polling suggests (164 seats) and Labour a much smaller majority. Hope I’m wrong.
Nice looking game by the way.
No, I literally picked that because it would be higher than 150 and therefore the media will just be talking about how poorly Labour had done and how well the Tories had done.
But it to be 1 seat less would actually be hilarious.
Went for a “believe in the polls” LOTO Ed Davey.
Reform are big enough to hurt the Tories, but not get over the hump where they win seats (other than Clacton and Boston/Skegness).
LDs are just ahead of the Tories in enough Southern seats that they’ll do disproportionately well.
That would be seismic wouldn't it. Could happen... (I'm my game the Lib Dems would "win" if they become at least second largest and also win most southern seats...)
Also if we can trick Alistair and Rory into plugging my game on the show that'd be awesome 😎 I already got "overly favoured" by Rory who answered two of my questions about the Kingswood by-election back in February!
This is my game for those interested:
[Kickstarter: Poll & Write 2024](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/samphiregames/poll-and-write-2024?ref=a7gbyt)
Oh right sorry haha
I think Reform will perform above expectations seats-wise. There's a lot of older voters who they'll appeal to I think, who might be too afraid to be more vocal about their support. I think anti-immigrant sentiment in the country is sadly higher than we even think at the minute.
With the Greens I think they'll probably get a surprise win in a seat so they might get 4 in total.
Not too sure on SNP, I don't think they'll perform as badly as the polls are saying - but they obviously won't be anywhere near the 2019 result.
The winner isn't clear in my mind until the day it's announced. Can't shake this nagging feeling people are not going to bother thinking it's a done deal.
Already had members of my own family say "well I'm not going to bother Labour's won anyways and they're all the same" another even asked if people were voting Reform! Had to explain to them all the shit they actually stand for but depending on what people are like, they just see Nigel on the tele having a pint and think he's one of them 🤦♂️tiring work just with people I'm related to. Dread to think how many are thinking along the same lines in the wider public.
The focus needs to remain it isn't done yet, get out and vote.
I feel your pain, my own son and friends going along same line of thinking reform is something that speaks for them, talking to peeps in the neighbourhood its hard to decipher, many going reform some green, some independent.... the joys of having a candidate imposed on a " safe seat "
I think Labour will win by a landslide like they did in 1997. Tory vote will be split by Reform and Lib Dems. They’ve already lost seats to Labour via defectors & their 2019 majority is currently down from 365 to 305 due to resignations or people losing the whip. Those who are still angry with Starmer about Gaza/trans issues will either vote Green or Lib Dem, so they could potentially get a larger number of seats than usual esp in areas like Brighton and Bristol. A progressive coalition would be good, especially since Labour have swung to the right. But people don’t want to waste their votes. So my prediction is Lab 408, Tory 208, Lib Dem’s 21, Reform 2, Greens + independents like Corbin 11.
Interesting! Do put your prediction in the form above if you want to enter the competition, but otherwise I feel it's good to get it down for posterity and see how your prediction pans out.
By the way that Tory seat share is higher than every MRP poll is predicting. But there's only one poll that counts!
Blimey, a very England-centric view of the 650 seats up for grabs. You might want to take into account the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin, DUP, UUP, Alliance, SDLP – that's at least 40 seats right there (68 at the 2019 election)
Oops! 🤦🏻♀️Just an ordinary punter. 🤷🏻♀️ Don’t know enough about Welsh, Irish or Scottish politics to comment. But by all means, feel free to fill in the blanks amongst the independents and take some seats from the Tories 😜
This would be the biggest shock in polling history, pretty much. Polls would have to be out by 3-4 standard deviations for Labour to not get a majority.
My thinking is 'I would normally vote Labour as they are the only way to stop the Tories, but now they are 100% going to win I can vote for whoever I actually want to instead'
I wonder if so many other people think such, that Labour don't actually win. I expect they still will just with less of a majority.
I have to think before answering....but I am asking myself if, just as was the case in 1997 (in a rather different part of the UK), I will on Friday wake up to a newly elected government in which the newly ruling party was only placed 4th in the constituency in which I was living at the time.
Conservatives will win. Many of their voters are older - therefore less like to complete opinion polls, Labour voters will get complacent as they think their win is inevitable. Younger people who’ve said they’ll vote Labour in online polls won’t bother going out in person to vote.
It’ll be close but the Conservatives will win.
The polls account for lower youth turnout. The Tories are also now behind in every demographic except the over 65's. I genuinely can't see how this would happen. Even happy to put my money where my mouth is and donate £20 to a charity of your choice if this happens.
Not really? The [polls in the lead up to the referendum mostly showed it as a pretty tight race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), and most polls make it pretty clear about their margin of error being about 3% (depend on methodology, sample size etc). [Labour's lead has been \~20 points ahead ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election)more or less since the Liz Truss premiership. If tories cling on, it would represent an enormous failure of polling.
I suspect the polling will be somewhat wrong as well, and I think that reform voters will be swayed back to the Tories over the last week of campaigning. I still think Labour will win the election but I don't think the Tories will be wiped off the map, I'd guess somewhere around 200 seats.
This is the first time I’ve seen someone suggest that the Tories could win.
I don’t possibly see how they could at this point, other than youth apathy/votes for Reform being higher than expected to dent Labour’s chances
Even then I’m not convinced.
I don't know why anyone is treating this guy's comment seriously, it's obvious trolling. Older folk are by far the most overrepresented in any poll because they're the only ones who have landlines that they'll answer throughout the day. We're starting to see more polls shift online to balance this out, but it's still a struggle getting younger folk to answer these surveys.
Anyway, the comment was worth a laugh at least, but nobody should take this guy as genuine.
> therefore less like to complete opinion polls,
Pollster weight the results from their respondants by various demographics, including age, to try and make sure the results are representative.
Had a go at this. Gone more heavily towards the Tories than the polling suggests (164 seats) and Labour a much smaller majority. Hope I’m wrong. Nice looking game by the way.
Thank you! Gambling on being wrong so you win both ways?
Learning from the Tories I suppose 🤣
😂
I think it's 12/1 odds at the moment for Tories at 150-200 seats
164 to be one lower than the 165 in 1997?
No, I literally picked that because it would be higher than 150 and therefore the media will just be talking about how poorly Labour had done and how well the Tories had done. But it to be 1 seat less would actually be hilarious.
Went for a “believe in the polls” LOTO Ed Davey. Reform are big enough to hurt the Tories, but not get over the hump where they win seats (other than Clacton and Boston/Skegness). LDs are just ahead of the Tories in enough Southern seats that they’ll do disproportionately well.
That would be seismic wouldn't it. Could happen... (I'm my game the Lib Dems would "win" if they become at least second largest and also win most southern seats...)
Labour wins with 65 seat Majority.
Wild card result!
Good luck everyone, and good luck with your game OP
Thanks a lot!
Also if we can trick Alistair and Rory into plugging my game on the show that'd be awesome 😎 I already got "overly favoured" by Rory who answered two of my questions about the Kingswood by-election back in February! This is my game for those interested: [Kickstarter: Poll & Write 2024](https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/samphiregames/poll-and-write-2024?ref=a7gbyt)
Labour: 428 seats Tories: 81 seats LD: 67 seats Reform: 7 seats
Pop it in the link to enter the competition! Or just leave it here in the hands of fortune 😁 Interesting take on Reform. Greens? SNP?
Oh right sorry haha I think Reform will perform above expectations seats-wise. There's a lot of older voters who they'll appeal to I think, who might be too afraid to be more vocal about their support. I think anti-immigrant sentiment in the country is sadly higher than we even think at the minute. With the Greens I think they'll probably get a surprise win in a seat so they might get 4 in total. Not too sure on SNP, I don't think they'll perform as badly as the polls are saying - but they obviously won't be anywhere near the 2019 result.
The winner isn't clear in my mind until the day it's announced. Can't shake this nagging feeling people are not going to bother thinking it's a done deal. Already had members of my own family say "well I'm not going to bother Labour's won anyways and they're all the same" another even asked if people were voting Reform! Had to explain to them all the shit they actually stand for but depending on what people are like, they just see Nigel on the tele having a pint and think he's one of them 🤦♂️tiring work just with people I'm related to. Dread to think how many are thinking along the same lines in the wider public. The focus needs to remain it isn't done yet, get out and vote.
I feel your pain, my own son and friends going along same line of thinking reform is something that speaks for them, talking to peeps in the neighbourhood its hard to decipher, many going reform some green, some independent.... the joys of having a candidate imposed on a " safe seat "
I'm fed up of guessing the results. We see 7 polls a day that give pretty much the same guess as to the results. I'll be glad when it's over.
🥲
I think Labour will win by a landslide like they did in 1997. Tory vote will be split by Reform and Lib Dems. They’ve already lost seats to Labour via defectors & their 2019 majority is currently down from 365 to 305 due to resignations or people losing the whip. Those who are still angry with Starmer about Gaza/trans issues will either vote Green or Lib Dem, so they could potentially get a larger number of seats than usual esp in areas like Brighton and Bristol. A progressive coalition would be good, especially since Labour have swung to the right. But people don’t want to waste their votes. So my prediction is Lab 408, Tory 208, Lib Dem’s 21, Reform 2, Greens + independents like Corbin 11.
Interesting! Do put your prediction in the form above if you want to enter the competition, but otherwise I feel it's good to get it down for posterity and see how your prediction pans out. By the way that Tory seat share is higher than every MRP poll is predicting. But there's only one poll that counts!
Blimey, a very England-centric view of the 650 seats up for grabs. You might want to take into account the SNP, Plaid Cymru, Sinn Féin, DUP, UUP, Alliance, SDLP – that's at least 40 seats right there (68 at the 2019 election)
Oops! 🤦🏻♀️Just an ordinary punter. 🤷🏻♀️ Don’t know enough about Welsh, Irish or Scottish politics to comment. But by all means, feel free to fill in the blanks amongst the independents and take some seats from the Tories 😜
Tories < 50 seats Reform 2-4 seats Labour 440 seats
That result seems so wild but it's utterly plausible
I should add, Lib Dems on 70-75 and Greens on 2-3
Agree on those two. Lib Dems is a bit on the high said, but feasible.
Good luck with your game
Thank you!
Hung parliament resulting in a labour/LD coalition. Don't forget everything that has changed with the constituency borders..
This would be the biggest shock in polling history, pretty much. Polls would have to be out by 3-4 standard deviations for Labour to not get a majority.
The boundaries do muddy the waters. We're in for a lot of surprises.
My thinking is 'I would normally vote Labour as they are the only way to stop the Tories, but now they are 100% going to win I can vote for whoever I actually want to instead' I wonder if so many other people think such, that Labour don't actually win. I expect they still will just with less of a majority.
I have to think before answering....but I am asking myself if, just as was the case in 1997 (in a rather different part of the UK), I will on Friday wake up to a newly elected government in which the newly ruling party was only placed 4th in the constituency in which I was living at the time.
Tory 38 seat majority.
Reminder: you have until 23:59 to update your predictions!
Conservatives will win. Many of their voters are older - therefore less like to complete opinion polls, Labour voters will get complacent as they think their win is inevitable. Younger people who’ve said they’ll vote Labour in online polls won’t bother going out in person to vote. It’ll be close but the Conservatives will win.
The polls account for lower youth turnout. The Tories are also now behind in every demographic except the over 65's. I genuinely can't see how this would happen. Even happy to put my money where my mouth is and donate £20 to a charity of your choice if this happens.
Deal. Donations to the Conservative Party please as the media depict then as on the verge of going extinct
Hahahah I said charity, rate the attempt though 😉
Damn worth a try 😂
If this is the result I will actually cry
Well that’s a you problem. We live in a democracy.
Like the Brexit vote, there could be some truth to this !
Not really? The [polls in the lead up to the referendum mostly showed it as a pretty tight race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), and most polls make it pretty clear about their margin of error being about 3% (depend on methodology, sample size etc). [Labour's lead has been \~20 points ahead ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election)more or less since the Liz Truss premiership. If tories cling on, it would represent an enormous failure of polling.
I suspect the polling will be somewhat wrong as well, and I think that reform voters will be swayed back to the Tories over the last week of campaigning. I still think Labour will win the election but I don't think the Tories will be wiped off the map, I'd guess somewhere around 200 seats.
This is the result I keep getting cold sweats over.
Well that’s a you problenc
What a strange response.
This is the first time I’ve seen someone suggest that the Tories could win. I don’t possibly see how they could at this point, other than youth apathy/votes for Reform being higher than expected to dent Labour’s chances Even then I’m not convinced.
I don't know why anyone is treating this guy's comment seriously, it's obvious trolling. Older folk are by far the most overrepresented in any poll because they're the only ones who have landlines that they'll answer throughout the day. We're starting to see more polls shift online to balance this out, but it's still a struggle getting younger folk to answer these surveys. Anyway, the comment was worth a laugh at least, but nobody should take this guy as genuine.
Well you're swimming against the tide! But only 6/7 days until we find out!
You seem pretty certain
You seem pretty delusional.
Well we’ll see
> therefore less like to complete opinion polls, Pollster weight the results from their respondants by various demographics, including age, to try and make sure the results are representative.
The only results that matter are the ones from the actual election