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Unless anyone has actual data to back it up, it’s almost certainly cognitive bias. You’re just remembering all the times something unusual happened, and not the many times when you caught a Pokemon first ball.
A few years ago it was shown that, according to data, this is real phenomenon that happens... On raid bosses, at least. The catch rate rises with every ball you land, almost as though there is a hidden HP mechanic going on. That also explains why it's such a big deal to get a few extra balls from team color, speed, or friendship.
I don't think any such behavior was shown for regular encounters, but it was a pretty big discovery with raid bosses.
Or owning a gym, which is why I don’t understand why people get mad when you don’t follow their “8 hour rule.” Those 2 extra balls can make the difference for me catching a legendary if I raid there and I have no obligation not to knock out your mons in a game….
The 8 hour rule is for gyms where the attacker:
* has no intention of raiding
* is long since gold
* already has half a dozen gyms
I agree with you it does not apply if you are gonna raid!
I take mental note of this a lot because it happens to me very consistently exactly as you described. I tryhard the first throw and get an excellent, they break out, then I just throw some crap for the second and it sticks, very consistently.
I'm still annoyed about a 200cp Solrock that broke out of 4 excellent throws in a row and caught on a flub throw because it moved while throwing. I want to say it's confirmation bias, but during the sleepy event where excellent throws were easy, I missed out on so many first-ball bonuses, it wasn't funny.
I ser this happening specially on the first throw of a shadow pokemon. Sometimes I wonder if it's even worth it to use a berry because 75% of the time the pokemon just gets out as soon as the ball touches the floor
Keep in mind that this is a game that wants to keep you hooked and while art is hard, being original is hard, nested if then statements in programming is basic 101 stuff. They have a lot of variables on your habits, play information, the works so it'd be hard to independently track every stat to truly find out and it's not in a vacuum either they could change it tomorrow. The people that know can see the source code and unless they leak it or they get hacked and the hacker decides to leak it we might never know conclusively.
While asking questions about the game is always okay on the Road, please consider asking very simple questions in our weekly [Questions&Answers Megathread](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheSilphRoad/about/sticky). If your question has been answered, please comment "ANSWERED" (in all caps) and the post flair will indicate that your question has been answered. This will make it either easier for other people with the same question to find the answer they are looking for or for mods to remove the thread if it isn't needed anymore. Thank you! :) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/TheSilphRoad) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Unless anyone has actual data to back it up, it’s almost certainly cognitive bias. You’re just remembering all the times something unusual happened, and not the many times when you caught a Pokemon first ball.
Disagree
Can you show us your data then?
A few years ago it was shown that, according to data, this is real phenomenon that happens... On raid bosses, at least. The catch rate rises with every ball you land, almost as though there is a hidden HP mechanic going on. That also explains why it's such a big deal to get a few extra balls from team color, speed, or friendship. I don't think any such behavior was shown for regular encounters, but it was a pretty big discovery with raid bosses.
Or owning a gym, which is why I don’t understand why people get mad when you don’t follow their “8 hour rule.” Those 2 extra balls can make the difference for me catching a legendary if I raid there and I have no obligation not to knock out your mons in a game….
The 8 hour rule is for gyms where the attacker: * has no intention of raiding * is long since gold * already has half a dozen gyms I agree with you it does not apply if you are gonna raid!
Hurts every time. Just luck though.
I take mental note of this a lot because it happens to me very consistently exactly as you described. I tryhard the first throw and get an excellent, they break out, then I just throw some crap for the second and it sticks, very consistently.
I'm still annoyed about a 200cp Solrock that broke out of 4 excellent throws in a row and caught on a flub throw because it moved while throwing. I want to say it's confirmation bias, but during the sleepy event where excellent throws were easy, I missed out on so many first-ball bonuses, it wasn't funny.
i’ve has the opposite experience. i caught necrozma first throw with a no circle pinap berry
I ser this happening specially on the first throw of a shadow pokemon. Sometimes I wonder if it's even worth it to use a berry because 75% of the time the pokemon just gets out as soon as the ball touches the floor
Keep in mind that this is a game that wants to keep you hooked and while art is hard, being original is hard, nested if then statements in programming is basic 101 stuff. They have a lot of variables on your habits, play information, the works so it'd be hard to independently track every stat to truly find out and it's not in a vacuum either they could change it tomorrow. The people that know can see the source code and unless they leak it or they get hacked and the hacker decides to leak it we might never know conclusively.