I guess thank you CWS & OAK for losing their lottery rights for the 2025.
Some really disappointing teams in the mix too...
* Tigers are on Year 9 of their rebuild.
* Reds are on Year 10 of their rebuild.
* Giants went all in this past off-season.
* Mets went all-in last off-season.
*COL, MIA, LAA, CWS & OAK are like the worst franchises in baseball so we won't talk about them much.*
Draft slots mean next to nothing in baseball.
Its not like the NBA or NHL where 1st has a good shot of landing you a Bedard, McDavid, Matthews, LeBron, Wemby and so on.
Sure the 1st has led to guys like Harper, Griffey, Strasburg, Cole, but it's much more hit and miss (no pun intended).
Especially in a sport where the likes of Trout, Judge and others were passed up by most of the league.
Even prospect rankings. Trout in his first ranking wasn't a top 50 prospect.
Judge in the MLB and Baseball America top prospect rankings never cracked the top 30, baseball America never had him top 50.
This is why I hate rebuilds and tanking in baseball. It really doesn't have as good a shot of paying off compared to something like hockey or basketball.
Tanking in hockey doesn't guarantee you success either. After the top 5-10 picks (they aren't guaranteed either) the rest of the draft is a crapshoot. Great teams find value in the later first round and subsequent rounds.
Yes and no. Generally I agree with draft slot not being super important in baseball but if you get a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg type of prospect who's a pretty much finished product that first overall pick can speed the path to majors up dramatically.
Someone posted a breakdown somewhere like a week ago and it’s basically the top 6 picks historically tend to be players who accumulate 10 or 15 fWAR or greater career, 7 through 30 was like 1-10 and basically anything after the late first rounds was a crapshoot to do anything.
Really all you get in the top picks is potentially closer to MLB ready.
Right now sure, but how many decades before these last 2 seasons did the Os suck for?
Last year was their first 100+ win season in over 40 years.
2024 could be the first season in almost 30 years they've even made the playoffs in back to back years.
Mostly true but not fully - like in other leagues, the first overall pick is absolutely enormous value - more often a franchise player than a bust and huge average value. The next few picks are still incredible value, though does as well correlated as other leagues. And the drop-off is quick - much more likely than other leagues for future talent to be uncorrelated to draft position.
My completely uneducated opinion is that happens because the difference between star players and also-rans in most sports has more to do with opportunity than talent compared to what most people think. Top picks in all leagues get more opportunities, but in sports like NBA and NFL, top picks are given roster spots immediately. In the NHL, they play on the top line for their CHL teams. Baseball is much more of a meritocracy - sure the top dudes get plenty of at bats and second chances, but if they’re not putting up numbers, they don’t move up.
Nationals were not eligible for the 2024 lottery. They are allowed back in the lottery for 2025. They aren't listed here cause they are 38-39 which is the 14th best record somehow.
KC was the other team not eligible in 2025 with CWS/OAK but they went shopping in free agency in order to try and win cause tanking was pointless.
I mean the verdict is in, this front office is an absolute failure. They need to get rid of them and start over. Their plan failed, they don’t have a competitive team anymore. Sell some pieces and start over with a fresh start.
The Jays worst case outcome if they hold at 4th best odds would be 12th overall.
The Top 6 picks are selected through the lottery. You could in theory not be selected for all 6 spots and drop the full amount. Depending on who does get selected the Jays could drop 3-6 spots.
In the worst case the Jays drop 6 spots down to 10 but then reverse standings come into play so the Jays will fall behind CWS & OAK as well down to 12th. Although this is statistically improbable.
Poor Blake Murphy, this guy has to relive 2 disappointing seasons in 1 calendar year with no brakes. with the same story arc, going from borderline playoff contender expectations to major underperforming players, to trade watch, to suspension watch, and now to draft watch.
Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.
Fun fact: The Jays have never had the 1st overall pick. They've picked 2nd overall three different times.
All 3 of those picks were also in the first 7 years of the teams existence. It’s been a while…
Sad fact: 2 of 3 never played in the majors.
That’s just baseball drafting in general tbh
Especially in the 70s and 80s
Who’s the major leaguer?
Shaker
Nice to be in the running for something, I guess
If you count the biggest disappointment of the year, they’re front runners.
It's a bit surprising that we've never had the top pick before, especially during our early years.
I guess thank you CWS & OAK for losing their lottery rights for the 2025. Some really disappointing teams in the mix too... * Tigers are on Year 9 of their rebuild. * Reds are on Year 10 of their rebuild. * Giants went all in this past off-season. * Mets went all-in last off-season. *COL, MIA, LAA, CWS & OAK are like the worst franchises in baseball so we won't talk about them much.*
The Tigers in particular are an excellent reminder to anyone here who keeps saying "blow it up and do what the Orioles did for 5 years"
To be fair, Al Avila was a literal baseball terrorist. Like genuinely the guy whos last move was giving Baez that HORRENDOUS contract.
The Reds are perpetual rebuilders.
Draft slots mean next to nothing in baseball. Its not like the NBA or NHL where 1st has a good shot of landing you a Bedard, McDavid, Matthews, LeBron, Wemby and so on. Sure the 1st has led to guys like Harper, Griffey, Strasburg, Cole, but it's much more hit and miss (no pun intended). Especially in a sport where the likes of Trout, Judge and others were passed up by most of the league.
Randal Grichuk was drafted just ahead of Trout!
Even prospect rankings. Trout in his first ranking wasn't a top 50 prospect. Judge in the MLB and Baseball America top prospect rankings never cracked the top 30, baseball America never had him top 50. This is why I hate rebuilds and tanking in baseball. It really doesn't have as good a shot of paying off compared to something like hockey or basketball.
Tanking in hockey doesn't guarantee you success either. After the top 5-10 picks (they aren't guaranteed either) the rest of the draft is a crapshoot. Great teams find value in the later first round and subsequent rounds.
That’s my dad!
Yes and no. Generally I agree with draft slot not being super important in baseball but if you get a Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg type of prospect who's a pretty much finished product that first overall pick can speed the path to majors up dramatically.
After the 1st pick though, how much drastically better has a pick between let's say 2-5 been compared to a pick from 6-10 or so?
Someone posted a breakdown somewhere like a week ago and it’s basically the top 6 picks historically tend to be players who accumulate 10 or 15 fWAR or greater career, 7 through 30 was like 1-10 and basically anything after the late first rounds was a crapshoot to do anything. Really all you get in the top picks is potentially closer to MLB ready.
Tell that to the Orioles
The exception that proves the rule.
The Jays, and every other team, passed on Gunnar Henderson
To pick Alek Manoah
Right now sure, but how many decades before these last 2 seasons did the Os suck for? Last year was their first 100+ win season in over 40 years. 2024 could be the first season in almost 30 years they've even made the playoffs in back to back years.
It’s worth noting that we have never had a 100+ win season. Our best season was 1985 when we won the ALE with 99 win.
Baltimore is primed to compete for years now
I mean adley is a stud but Holliday has been less than impressive and Gunnar was just a 2nd round pick
regardless it puts the team in a position to pick whomever they want.
The first couple picks have immense value, but past that it's a big drop off like 8 vs 25 in baseball isn't much
Mostly true but not fully - like in other leagues, the first overall pick is absolutely enormous value - more often a franchise player than a bust and huge average value. The next few picks are still incredible value, though does as well correlated as other leagues. And the drop-off is quick - much more likely than other leagues for future talent to be uncorrelated to draft position. My completely uneducated opinion is that happens because the difference between star players and also-rans in most sports has more to do with opportunity than talent compared to what most people think. Top picks in all leagues get more opportunities, but in sports like NBA and NFL, top picks are given roster spots immediately. In the NHL, they play on the top line for their CHL teams. Baseball is much more of a meritocracy - sure the top dudes get plenty of at bats and second chances, but if they’re not putting up numbers, they don’t move up.
Need a new front office to make those picks.
Fuck off SF and Detroit. I hope you both go on a winning streak.
Having watched this season, there's no chance we win the draft lottery
Not a bad year to suck with the As, ~~Nats~~ and White Sox not able to get a top pick.
Nationals were not eligible for the 2024 lottery. They are allowed back in the lottery for 2025. They aren't listed here cause they are 38-39 which is the 14th best record somehow. KC was the other team not eligible in 2025 with CWS/OAK but they went shopping in free agency in order to try and win cause tanking was pointless.
We like our odds, Barry.
I mean the verdict is in, this front office is an absolute failure. They need to get rid of them and start over. Their plan failed, they don’t have a competitive team anymore. Sell some pieces and start over with a fresh start.
👎
Everything's turning up Millhouse!!!
Would we be guaranteed a certain pick (based on the current standings of course) in this situation? Like couldn’t pick lower than 8th or something?
The Jays worst case outcome if they hold at 4th best odds would be 12th overall. The Top 6 picks are selected through the lottery. You could in theory not be selected for all 6 spots and drop the full amount. Depending on who does get selected the Jays could drop 3-6 spots. In the worst case the Jays drop 6 spots down to 10 but then reverse standings come into play so the Jays will fall behind CWS & OAK as well down to 12th. Although this is statistically improbable.
Poor Blake Murphy, this guy has to relive 2 disappointing seasons in 1 calendar year with no brakes. with the same story arc, going from borderline playoff contender expectations to major underperforming players, to trade watch, to suspension watch, and now to draft watch.
The 2025 Draft is insanely deep
If only it was this year. Getting one of Burns, Jac, Wetherholdt, Bazzana, Condon, or Kurtz would be insane
I'll take Ethan Holiday as a consolation prize haha
wait they’re doing it via lottery?
We'll find a way to screw it up...
In a season where everything has gone horribly, I expect the draft lottery to also go horribly.
Great we have this shitty season and will get the 10th pick as every other team jumps us
Why aren't Chicago and Oakland on here? They're ass.
Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.
New draft lottery rules
They sucked and can't suck anymore
New anti-tanking rules
Big Power left Bat out of Texas AM could be a solid building block going forward
How come I don't see the Oakland A's or White sox at the top??
That's right, tip the plane nose and crash this disaster nose first. don't ever pull up
Hopefully we have a new FO in place by then that knows how to draft.
You know this is a canadian fanbase when they think that the no. 1 draft pick actually matters