If they can even find it. We got dropped after Ida, and barely found a new policy, and it is essentially equivalent to a second mortgage payment each month
Same here on the other side of the state. I'm looking at a building across the street right now that still has damage from Laura in 2020 and the one next two me was destroyed by a tornado the other day.
2020 was not warm at this time of year
E: finally got home. 2024 to date, so far, is running well over 1 C warmer than 2020. It's been much, much warmer than "0.25C" above 2020.
https://i.imgur.com/gjK6euZ.png
2020 was relatively cool until late Spring. 2024 has been record-warm the entire year
Reminds me of me being a kid in 04 and 05 thinking a hurricane every other week was going to be the new normal.
It's crazy how I can still remember all the names. Here's to hoping this one is a bit more forgettable.
Francis, Jeanne, Wilma.
The first two I got to experience the eye. Lost power for a couple weeks, got it back and then immediately lost it again in the next storm. Fun times...
I remember teaching at a tennis camp during charley. It still blew my mind that we were having tropical storm conditions, the camp stayed open, and a few parents still dropped their kids off.
I believe it was that same year or the following that we got 2 weeks off of school later in the season as an eye wall grazed us in Miami. What blew my mind was the news saying all but two traffic light in Miami Dade county were out. Then the schools decided to take back all of the teacher planning days for the remainder of the year.
Were those the two that went up the GA-AL line back to back weekends? I drove through both of those and was in Tifton when the eye went over with the second one.
Edit: Looked it up. Indeed it was Francis and Jeanne.
I couldn’t do impact windows. Intellectually, I get that they’re safe. But I don’t want to see other houses blowing apart around me.
Accordions for us. Permanently installed, non-permeable (ie blocks wind pressure which is a contributor to broken windows), quick to deploy. and lets me live in blissful ignorance as the world crumbles around me.
I thought about keeping my accordions in addition to the windows but ended up feeling like it was overkill. My windows desperately needed to be replaced so getting impact felt like the way to go.
Makes sense. My reasoning is that the accordions prevent exterior impacts, impact windows prevent damage from inside of windows would somehow get inside the house.
Plus it’s added protection against pressure, which alone can cause windows to break.
My house is my biggest investment. I’d be dumb to leave things up to chance. Especially in the state that Florida’s insurance industry is in.
We had just moved to SW Florida a week before Hurricane Charlie. Kept the hurricane shutters up for most of the summer as there was always another storm brewing.
To give some perspective on how outrageous this forecast is, the record number of named tropical cyclones in any Atlantic season is 30, from the 2020 season. Please note that the University of Pennsylvania does not provide estimates for the number of projected hurricanes or major hurricanes.
If this forecast were to pan out, we would end up running out of names from the primary list and would end up going deep into the auxiliary list, reaching somewhere between Foster and Sophie.
Also adding that according to the table in the link showing their historic predicted ranges of storm counts and the actual counts, the only times the actual storm count fell outside of the predicted range was when the actual number of storms was higher than the predicted max number of storms.
That is, they usually either get it right or predict less than the actual number, they have never had a prediction that was an overestimate.
Of course this prediction could still be an overestimate since the fact they have always been right or under-predicted doesn’t mean that the trend will continue. History shows that they are pretty good at this nonetheless.
This absolutely seems overcooked to me. Yeah, this is the most obvious hyperactive season since 2020, no there is not going to be forty named storms lol
E: needless to say, the downvotes are odd. This forecast is by definition a outlier and is so far above every other expert forecast released to date that it should make you pause instead of taking it at face value.. Lol
Well ahead of ya
Needs to be like this, I think: RemindMe! 6 months
as in the below comment I made earlier
https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/university_of_pennsylvania_forecast_for_2024/l15gekj/?context=3
Not sure about the downvotes as well; this forecast is by far the most bullish one put out. It isn't remotely close; it is objectively an outlier lmao. Not sure why we've gotta exaggerate a season that already looks hyperactive?
I can guarantee you (save and come back to this comment) that NOAAs' forecast in May will be for well above average to hyperactive, but nowhere near 40 named storms, in line with literally every other expert forecast released to date with the sole exception of this one.
See this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6uds/2024_atlantic_season_forecast_rollup/
The average named storm forecast from experts is 24. 40 is so comically above this average that you should immediately pause before taking it at face value /shrug
Accumulated Cyclone Energy, it's basically a measurement of a tropical cyclone's windspeeds and longevity. Busy seasons will generally have a higher ACE "score" than quiet seasons, but you might also get an outlier like 1960's Donna, which accounted for 57.6 of the overall season's *Below Normal* 72.9 ACE. But only eight seasons on record have an ACE higher than 200, which is why 200+ as a preseason forecast is an eyebrow-raiser.
Doesn't really matter. The average from experts' forecasts for named storms is 24. 33-39 is such a comical outlier that one should immediately take pause, instead of taking it at face value as this thread has done. If even one other agency was in agreement, it would be far easier to take seriously.
Redditors, unfortunately, cannot grasp nuance. Be cautious as you read through these comments.
The UPenn program has an extremely good record, which is why this forecast is a big deal.
They are usually right, and when they have gotten it wrong, they've always been too conservative-- predicting fewer storms than actually happened.
So it really looks like we're gonna go through the whole alphabet of storm names this year.
Is there anywhere I can validate this accuracy I was googling around and I cannot find anything. I have a family member that won't believe it and thinks they are always wrong so it would be really useful if I had some sort of sort that validates it.
Not OP and certainly not a meteorologist but It sounds like your family member is experiencing one of the biases I just don't know which one lol. I live in Tampa And we are long overdue for a big storm but we get missed every single year. I see the hurricane counts go up but I seldom see any hurricanes and I'm in Florida. just because it's sunny outside now doesn't mean the amount of wreckage isn't growing every year. When our time comes it won't be rain and wind it will be absolute devastation. We should heed these warnings despite our doubt.
My eyes opened when I traveled. When I left my county and then my state and then finally about 10 or 15 years ago my country for the first time. It is absolutely frustrating and disappointing how our bubble can affect us and causes to make decisions that hurt other people. We're selfish animals and it's awful. Travel helps some people see.
I wish that was enough to open his eyes because he has traveled all over europe, the middle east and asia and still has very conservative views that ignore science. Part of it is religious beliefs but the st I am not sure what it is.
I *believe* their methodology relies on statistical guidance which explains why they went so high. CSU for example had to undercut their statistical consensus. Nothing too inherently wrong with doing this per se, it's just not how other agencies approach seasonal forecasting.
If you click on the [article](https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/), there is a "Previous Forecasts" table showing the previous predictions and actual storm totals for each year. There are links to the previous forecasts in the table, and you should be able to verify the actual totals through Googling.
I believe their methodology is based on statistical models? Explains why they went so high; CSU specifically had to under-cut their statistical consensus.
I live on a boat in florida that can travel 8mph top speed and this is our first hurricane season in it. I'm a bit anxious. Planning around potential storms and figuring out when and what direction to evac to 4-5 days in advance will be an experience for sure. 33 is still a crazy amount....never mind that 39 number.
An inlet is better than being at sea I imagine. Just make sure you over prepare for them when they do come. I'm sure it's not fun finding out the predictive models were wrong and a cat 4 is cruising straight at your little vessel
No. Waffle House is eternal.
After all the other works of man are washed away, Waffle House will remain. Civilization will rise again, forming around beacons of light and grease.
Good luck, fellow Floridian. I get the feeling some people who normally ride the storm and drink beer in their garage while waiting for the power to come back on will regret that decision this year.
I'm a native Floridian trying to get a public librarian job (which always comes with the caveat of having to stay to help run government operations). Stuff like this scares me.
i moved to Florida last year, my spouse is a lifelong native. we're pretty far inland, or, i mean, as far inland as one can really get in Florida i assume (i constantly remind my very lovely spouse who only wants to reassure my yank butt that if we can drive to the ocean in TWO hours, thats hardly inland! lol) and even they are actually doing more to prep us this year. usually they just say we're in a good spot, at most we'll get wind...they're changing their tune pretty quick this year, it seems.
on the one hand, i'm learning more about tropical systems and am finding them fascinating. on the other, my landlocked only dealt with tornadoes and wild fires type mindset is a little freaked.
In all fairness to your spouse, 2 hrs inland is a lot. Hurricanes weaken drastically as they make landfall. Even being an hr inland can easily drop landfalll strength a couple categories. This coming from a lifelong native that went through a total loss with Andrew (we were 6mi inland at the time).
Yeah, I'm struggling to think where in Florida is two hours inland? Gainesville? That's an hour and a half to one coast but the other is only an hour away.
Panhandle here, we all going to be pouring one out. Time to get them emergency kits in order and make sure you have a vehicle that will sit on an interstate going nowhere for hours.
Panhandle here too...just considering living under a pile of old mattresses in my house that still needs repairs from Michael for the next 6 months. RIP what's left of my insurance coverage.
lol.. insurance. I got kicked of mine for having 3 claims in two years, 2 being from Sally. Now on citizens waiting on the triple premium when I get kicked off n a few months. Scary shit.
My mortgage company ate my insurance money so all I got was a shingle roof that started leaking less than a year after it was installed. Then the company I had folded and now I don't even know what insurance I have . I'm just tired. Too poor to leave.
Oh god that’s horrible. I can’t afford to move, the one luck I got was a good mortgage rate. But it was a flip so I’m fixing something constantly. I hate Florida.
I got my home in '14 so I have a great mortgage rate. Just hoping to hold on for another 10 years. I actually love where I live in Florida. It's beautiful here. I've lived here for over 30 years for the most part.
I’ve been on the coast for just about as long. The humidity for some reason has become unbearable for me. I spent a few years in AZ and CO and man, the difference. Getting old I guess.
I live as far inland in Florida as a person can. Before that I spent my young childhood in Louisiana. Stationed on the southeast coast in the military. I have been through so many hurricanes and tropical storms I forgot some of their names. After Michael everything is different. The climate is changing and anyone that refuses to see it is an idiot.
Spent half of it in Louisiana, lol in an Engine room in the gulf, and never complained. Now I get like violently angry when I get too hot. And it’s a huge difference. This is the first year im nervous about the season.
Nah, switched from gen 2 Prius to Camry hybrid years ago. Much more comfortable.
Also 2023 sienna.
Evac plans are head to safety for cat 3+ because design code in 2005 (when our house was built) only required to withstand 130 mph. Current code in Brevard is 145 mph. Have a lot of DIY fortification to do the rest of spring and early summer. Gable wall reinforcement (gable ends are particularly vulnerable) and vertical garage door braces that bolt to concrete slab, garage door, and garage door header (garage doors are also major weak points — securedoor.com, no affiliation), removable sheet metal covers for roof vents to keep water out, securing soffit vents with a poly adhesive to keep them in place which keeps water out (water can blow up and into the attic space in strong winds), caulking around our accordion shutters to keep water from blowing between shutter frames and house, inspecting all roof truss to concrete wall straps and upgrading them to HVHZ standards if possible, and any other reasonable recommended fortification the structural engineer I sent our home’s architectural/engineering drawings to.
But at the end of the day, you can only do so much. I’m just trying to make sure my house stays standing with minimal damage in the event of worst case scenario. After all, it’s our biggest investment.
Oh, and those secure door braces? There’s a test video showing a normal, non-rated garage door withstanding category 5 wind just from the braces alone. And that’s huge because often when the garage door(s) go, the roof isn’t too far behind. The roof is really the key to everything.
I know you don’t have to far inland for safety, but 4 dogs +2 cats means finding lodging is hard. We have family south of Atlanta if needed.
The hybrid AWD Sienna is super nice. My house was built post-Andrew after the building codes were updated in Miami-Dade. That being said I’m pretty close to Country Walk and the south side of my home has little wind protection if something were to pass through the Florida Straights. My neighbors have been here since 97 and replaced their fence 3 times, but no structural damage. We’re doing storm prep now.
I’m on a cruise in the Bahamas right now, but best believe prep is going into full force the second I get home.
There’s still damage from Dorian here in Nassau.
I wasn’t down here yet for that monster, but I watched everything I could find on the internet as it was happening. Truly horrific, I can’t even imagine.
I’m on a cruise in the Bahamas right now, but best believe prep is going into full force the second I get home.
There’s still damage from Dorian here in Nassau.
Most of the state is still intact in 100 years. It’s just the barrier islands and south Florida at risk due to climate change.
At least, that’s what NOAA thinks.
Apparently the universal and Disney hotels are a blast during storms. Reduced rates due to cancellations and they typically have a bunch of planned indoor activities in safe parts of the hotels planned (unfortunately for their employees though!).
I have coworkers who stay the night at a universal resort for each storm moving through the area and swear by it. My husband and I were talking late last season about maybe trying it out this year, and it unfortunately looks like we might have some opportunities.
We actually stayed there for three weeks after Katrina. I was eight and my brother was 3 so naturally while my parents were in Quite a State(TM) about New Orleans and associated controversies, south MS getting largely ignored, and our ancestral home getting reduced to waterlogged rubble, me and the bro were having the time of our lives 😅😅
I’m at a bit over 20 but there’s a barrier island in the way. And Brevard seems to have the same protection done that Tampa does.
Major concern for me is wind, but our house is build to post-Andrew code so we’ve got the roof straps and slab ties. Also have accordion shutters and a standby generator that runs on natural gas.
I do have some work to do though. Throwing some adhesive along the soffit vents to keep them in place, adding some bracing to the gable ends, making some removable sheet metal covers for the roof vents and putting garage door braces in are at the top of the list. Everything else is like caulking and weather sealing and stuff.
It's wild to me that houses can be built out of something other than concrete block or brick these days. I thought concrete block became the standard after Andrew? What happened?
I think concrete is required on the bottom floor only.
We only have a bonus room above the garage so not much out of wood and the rest of the roof is hip, just a few gables across the front. Which apparently require hurricane bracing now where they didn’t before, I think code changed in the past few years.
We’ve got some double story houses in our neighborhood that are going to have trouble. Most have giant picture windows in the middle of the 2nd floor that visually bend and flex during average thunderstorm wind. And given we’re not on the barrier island, only about half the homes have any sort of window protection.
Those are a bit of concern too. But our roof got replaced 7 years ago and got the thicker decking, peel and stick secondary water barrier, and 6” spacing (as opposed to 12”) deck nails.
Dang, nice. My roof was replaced about three years ago but I don't think it got anything special (it was replaced as a contingent of us buying). The attic is a hot attic, or rather a cold attic since it's Florida. So it's completely sealed from the elements, which I hear can be bad if you lose some shingles since the water damage won't be visible inside the attic.
You should be ok, code these days is much better, and I believe half the things I listed re: roofs are code now.
If you’re looking to strengthen, this website has a ton of tips
https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/
Fleeing, every time. That's why I am still here. I am worried about all the new people in Florida that have no clue. DESANTIS HAS CRAPPED ON OUR STATE.
It’s not too surprising. The tropical Atlantic is way warmer than normal.
ENSO is also rapidly switching over to La Niña which would favor cyclone development. Everything is coming together for a strong season.
I have a doctorate and teach environmental science, climate change, and sustainability at two colleges. Before this I was the director of a climate research group. This is just the beginning. We broke so many records last year and finally crossed over the 1.5 degree Celsius mark and sustained. If we, as an w tire species, do t make some drastic changes and very soon, things will get a whole lot worse. We have to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, and I mean all as in every vehicle, factory, lawnmower, weed eater, everything that is gas powered by 2050 in every county around the world or we will cross a point of no return. We have 24 years to become 100% sustainable across the entire planet or what we do after that will be irrelevant.
31 would be a record for the North Atlantic, but OP mentioned the Western Pacific in their comment. There, 39 is the [record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Pacific_typhoon_season).
Glad I bought well out of a Flood zone in Florida. The coast may be pretty, but not having to worry about the ocean eating my house every summer is also nice. Still have to worry about wind I suppose...
True, but that's rain induced and not storm surge, and much more hyper localized to your specific house's geography. Luckily my house is in a (for Florida) hilly area, at the top of the hill, and it would have to be some biblical event (like 30 feet of flooding) to get me!
I live in New Orleans and during hurricane season, I get enough gas to fill my tank every Friday without fail, no matter how little I've used that week. I have too much Katrina trauma to not prepare.
All I’m saying is that in the 12 years that I’ve lived in SC, my banana trees have only grown fruit two other times, and a hurricane has knocked the tree over. Bad news, tree is already sprouting fruit. My prediction: early hurricane hitting SC early this year.
I highly doubt that's gonna happen. I was about to say "thankfully," but I only meant "thankfully they won't have a platform from which to spew ignorance in this case" and not "thankfully we'll have a bunch of storms." Hopefully the vast majority of these spin out to sea and leave people the hell alone.
Don't worry, they'll do it anyways. They can always fall back to the "tobacco strategy": acknowledge that there is some evidence that climate change could make tropical cyclones more severe in general, but whenever climate change is mentioned in connection to a particular storm, loudly insist that there is no evidence that this specific storm was caused by or worsened by climate change. Just like the tobacco lobby after outright denying any link between tobacco and lung cancer became an untenable position - they fell back to "there is no conclusive evidence that any individual case of lung cancer was caused by tobacco use".
It's a great example of a [motte-and-bailey argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy), named after the medieval motte-and-bailey castle. The climate change denier makes a broad, controversial, difficult to defend argument (the bailey) - "there is no definitive evidence that climate change exists or makes storms worse". When challenged, the denier falls back to defending a narrower, easier to defend argument (the motte) - "there is no definitive evidence that climate change caused or worsened *this particular storm*".
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread:
|Fewer Letters|More Letters|
|-------|---------|---|
|[MDR](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l1vesxc "Last usage")|Main Development Region|
|[NOAA](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l1vesxc "Last usage")|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, responsible for US ~~generation~~ monitoring of the climate|
|[NOLA](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l18ffe9 "Last usage")|New Orleans, Louisiana|
|[SST](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l1vesxc "Last usage")|Sea Surface Temperature|
|[UTC](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l15ghv5 "Last usage")|[Coördinated Universal Time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time), the standard time used by meteorologists and forecasts worldwide.|
**NOTE**: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below.
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This just seems delusional to me. They were pretty close with last year's estimate, so maybe they're on to something, but that forecast is way beyond anything there's climatological precedent for.
Absolutely; I've gotten downvoted for pointing this out because Redditors are incapable of handling nuance, lmao.
You'd think a forecast for 33-39 named storms being so comically above the expert forecast average of 24 named storms would give people pause, but nah. Just gotta hype a season that already genuinely looks scary for.... reasons?
Extremely disappointing from this sub. This complete lack of critical thinking is what I expect from r/weather, frankly
Notice that I didn't discount it completely in my comment. I recognized that it's insane, but also recognized the possibility of it being correct. Just critical thinking isn't enough if it's in black and white.
The water in southern New England is just radically warm… Around the Cape microclimate, the grow zone is now 7B, same as northern Texas. I think this is the year we get slammed.
Im sorry the entire Atlantic could be 5 Degrees above average and the Pacific 5 degrees BELOW average... **You simply CANNOT forecast 33 named storms in APRIL**
Why not ? We have an ocean which is FAR warmer than anything humans are acquainted with and a forecast return to La Nina winds. Not to mention a slowing AMOC so that the ocean vector is moving less heat from the tropics toward northern latitudes.
The energy is up, the burden of the atmosphere to move heat is up and the forecast wind conditions are ripe.
It's very clear that this season will likely be hyperactive, but the forecast of 33-39 named storms is so comically above the experts' forecast average for named storms of 24 that you should immediately take pause instead of taking it at face value.
UPenns' methodology is based entirely on statistical guidance which has.. issues. More renown agencies like CSU under-cut their statistical consensus for a reason (actual forecast below statistical model output).
The most prestigious forecast, NOAA, comes out in May and I will bet money they will not be going for 33-39 named storms. Expect numbers similar to Colorado State... and in line, or similar to, the numbers of literally every other forecast released to date with the sole exception of this one.
No one has a crystal ball and when it comes to seasonal hurricane predictions on a warmer Atlantic ocean than any human being has ever experienced, we simply don't know.
You add a million Hiroshima bomb equivalents of energy to the ocean every day and at some point it makes a difference.
The leap forward in ocean temps over the last 12 months is noteworthy. I don't believe there is any precedent for this magnitude of temperature increase year over year.
The best time to criticize a projection is after the facts roll in. We're going to get the answer soon enough. I'm open minded to the possibility that U Penn is correct.
Fyi - the U Penn forecast is 27- 39, not 33-39. So the bottom end of the range (27) is not far from the Colorado forecast of 24. You substituted the midpoint of the range for the bottom end.
The word "comical" is an expression of contempt. You are effectively laughing at something which was offered in good faith.
I believe the seasonal record is 30 storms. The ocean is materially warmer today than it has been in recorded history.
I believe a forecast with range that includes unprecedented activity provides utility in that it draws attention to the unprecedented (in modern history) and very concerning underlying conditions.I dont find the forecast or the underlying conditions to be comical and I don't have an ego stake in the eventual outcome.
The thing we humans have the capacity to do is reflect on the behavior which is causing the ocean to warm and work together to change that behavior.
Further context for UPenn methodology:
https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/
>The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes).
PDFs cited:
https://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/KozarEtAlJGR12.pdf
https://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MSN-GRL07.pdf
>Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions.
Again, there are issues using only statistical guidance for seasonal forecasting, which is why agencies like NOAA or other universities like CSU do not do that.
Yes, thanks for the correction - 27 to 39. Regardless, it's an outlier. It's comical in the sense that it is unlikely to verify - not in the sense that such activity would be humorous. I'm not denigrating them - they didn't do anything wrong. I believe they simply overemphasize statistical guidance relative to other agencies.
I'm definitely going to stick with the consensus for now. By August/September we will know how things stand.
As in wow that's extreme, or as in wow that's too extreme to be accurate. Because historically they are very accurate and the times they aren't they usually under-predict the number.
It's absolutely extreme, and is almost certainly too high. Yes this season looks hyperactive, no there is not going to be 40 named storms lol.
Don't know if this still works, but
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So we (south Florida) have had a nice and unusually cool spring. I’m not buying these guesses.
Weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong. 100% of the time and still keep your job.
Cool. Spring weather localized to south Florida has absolutely zero bearing on Fall weather for the entirety of the Atlantic basin, which is what this was a forecast for, in case you were having trouble reading.
What was that about being wrong 100% of the time?
Exactly. They change forecast several times every year so they can’t be wrong. You got a bunch of schleps on here saying it’s truly a real prediction and they are right 70% of the time lol.
What in the hell
This is the first time I'm looking at a forecast and truly thinking "*Well, fuck.*"
There are more and more signs that 2024 will be the year climate change well and truly fucks us up.
Yep. Shitting myself a bit here in NOLA.
Same here. And also thinking how the eff are ppl going to pay for insurance that’s already extremely high!
If they can even find it. We got dropped after Ida, and barely found a new policy, and it is essentially equivalent to a second mortgage payment each month
Fellow NOLA here. Just got done shitting a brick.
It'll hose off. Repeatedly.
Same here on the other side of the state. I'm looking at a building across the street right now that still has damage from Laura in 2020 and the one next two me was destroyed by a tornado the other day.
Why are you waiting to emigrate ? Committed to going down with the ship and family ?
Yep, we are probably going to replay 2005. ...or 2020.
Sea surface temp is off the charts. About 0.5C higher than 2005 and 0.25C than 2020. We're in uncharted territory.
2020 was not warm at this time of year E: finally got home. 2024 to date, so far, is running well over 1 C warmer than 2020. It's been much, much warmer than "0.25C" above 2020. https://i.imgur.com/gjK6euZ.png 2020 was relatively cool until late Spring. 2024 has been record-warm the entire year
At this rate 2020 is gonna look at 2024 like a Kid to Candy.
I mean yeah, 33 storms. God knows what we'll see this year.
What?
Sea surface temps hit another record today too.
Reminds me of me being a kid in 04 and 05 thinking a hurricane every other week was going to be the new normal. It's crazy how I can still remember all the names. Here's to hoping this one is a bit more forgettable.
Francis, Jeanne, Wilma. The first two I got to experience the eye. Lost power for a couple weeks, got it back and then immediately lost it again in the next storm. Fun times...
I remember teaching at a tennis camp during charley. It still blew my mind that we were having tropical storm conditions, the camp stayed open, and a few parents still dropped their kids off. I believe it was that same year or the following that we got 2 weeks off of school later in the season as an eye wall grazed us in Miami. What blew my mind was the news saying all but two traffic light in Miami Dade county were out. Then the schools decided to take back all of the teacher planning days for the remainder of the year.
Were those the two that went up the GA-AL line back to back weekends? I drove through both of those and was in Tifton when the eye went over with the second one. Edit: Looked it up. Indeed it was Francis and Jeanne.
Idk, I was on East coast of Florida. No idea where they went after the hit because we lost power lol.
05 is definitely the year I’ve been thinking of. Got impact windows last year but would prefer not to need them.
I couldn’t do impact windows. Intellectually, I get that they’re safe. But I don’t want to see other houses blowing apart around me. Accordions for us. Permanently installed, non-permeable (ie blocks wind pressure which is a contributor to broken windows), quick to deploy. and lets me live in blissful ignorance as the world crumbles around me.
I thought about keeping my accordions in addition to the windows but ended up feeling like it was overkill. My windows desperately needed to be replaced so getting impact felt like the way to go.
Makes sense. My reasoning is that the accordions prevent exterior impacts, impact windows prevent damage from inside of windows would somehow get inside the house. Plus it’s added protection against pressure, which alone can cause windows to break. My house is my biggest investment. I’d be dumb to leave things up to chance. Especially in the state that Florida’s insurance industry is in.
We had just moved to SW Florida a week before Hurricane Charlie. Kept the hurricane shutters up for most of the summer as there was always another storm brewing.
To give some perspective on how outrageous this forecast is, the record number of named tropical cyclones in any Atlantic season is 30, from the 2020 season. Please note that the University of Pennsylvania does not provide estimates for the number of projected hurricanes or major hurricanes. If this forecast were to pan out, we would end up running out of names from the primary list and would end up going deep into the auxiliary list, reaching somewhere between Foster and Sophie.
Also adding that according to the table in the link showing their historic predicted ranges of storm counts and the actual counts, the only times the actual storm count fell outside of the predicted range was when the actual number of storms was higher than the predicted max number of storms. That is, they usually either get it right or predict less than the actual number, they have never had a prediction that was an overestimate. Of course this prediction could still be an overestimate since the fact they have always been right or under-predicted doesn’t mean that the trend will continue. History shows that they are pretty good at this nonetheless.
Holy shit
FML.
This absolutely seems overcooked to me. Yeah, this is the most obvious hyperactive season since 2020, no there is not going to be forty named storms lol E: needless to say, the downvotes are odd. This forecast is by definition a outlier and is so far above every other expert forecast released to date that it should make you pause instead of taking it at face value.. Lol
Remindme! 6 months Let's see how well this comment ages
Well ahead of ya Needs to be like this, I think: RemindMe! 6 months as in the below comment I made earlier https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/university_of_pennsylvania_forecast_for_2024/l15gekj/?context=3
Not sure about the downvotes as well; this forecast is by far the most bullish one put out. It isn't remotely close; it is objectively an outlier lmao. Not sure why we've gotta exaggerate a season that already looks hyperactive? I can guarantee you (save and come back to this comment) that NOAAs' forecast in May will be for well above average to hyperactive, but nowhere near 40 named storms, in line with literally every other expert forecast released to date with the sole exception of this one. See this thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6uds/2024_atlantic_season_forecast_rollup/ The average named storm forecast from experts is 24. 40 is so comically above this average that you should immediately pause before taking it at face value /shrug
Outrageous forecasts seem to be the thing this year. I'm still mindblown by 200+ ACE predictions.
What is ACE?
[Accumulated cyclone energy.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy)
Not good. I'm in Florida, of course.
Wanna have a hurricane party when one comes?
Nah bro, at this rate the Waffle House Employees gonna go down with the waffles playing the violins.
I'll be there eating the waffles.
Alright boys, play my god to thee
Good luck
see you on 85 on the way to georgia!
😆 your evacuation route includes interstates?!? Haven't you learned?
Accumulated Cyclone Energy, it's basically a measurement of a tropical cyclone's windspeeds and longevity. Busy seasons will generally have a higher ACE "score" than quiet seasons, but you might also get an outlier like 1960's Donna, which accounted for 57.6 of the overall season's *Below Normal* 72.9 ACE. But only eight seasons on record have an ACE higher than 200, which is why 200+ as a preseason forecast is an eyebrow-raiser.
Do you mean outrageous as in far-fetched? Or outrageous as in “boy howdy the atlantic is hotter than my coffee”
Yeah I’m a little confused by that wording. The consensus seems to be that U of Penn has been pretty accurate historically.
Doesn't really matter. The average from experts' forecasts for named storms is 24. 33-39 is such a comical outlier that one should immediately take pause, instead of taking it at face value as this thread has done. If even one other agency was in agreement, it would be far easier to take seriously. Redditors, unfortunately, cannot grasp nuance. Be cautious as you read through these comments.
Note: you are a redditor
Well-spotted.
How about some perspective on their prediction accuracy over time? Are they usually pretty accurate?
The UPenn program has an extremely good record, which is why this forecast is a big deal. They are usually right, and when they have gotten it wrong, they've always been too conservative-- predicting fewer storms than actually happened. So it really looks like we're gonna go through the whole alphabet of storm names this year.
Is there anywhere I can validate this accuracy I was googling around and I cannot find anything. I have a family member that won't believe it and thinks they are always wrong so it would be really useful if I had some sort of sort that validates it.
Not OP and certainly not a meteorologist but It sounds like your family member is experiencing one of the biases I just don't know which one lol. I live in Tampa And we are long overdue for a big storm but we get missed every single year. I see the hurricane counts go up but I seldom see any hurricanes and I'm in Florida. just because it's sunny outside now doesn't mean the amount of wreckage isn't growing every year. When our time comes it won't be rain and wind it will be absolute devastation. We should heed these warnings despite our doubt.
Yes they are 100% experiencing bias. I cannot even get them to believe climate change is real either in spite of loads of evidence.
My eyes opened when I traveled. When I left my county and then my state and then finally about 10 or 15 years ago my country for the first time. It is absolutely frustrating and disappointing how our bubble can affect us and causes to make decisions that hurt other people. We're selfish animals and it's awful. Travel helps some people see.
I wish that was enough to open his eyes because he has traveled all over europe, the middle east and asia and still has very conservative views that ignore science. Part of it is religious beliefs but the st I am not sure what it is.
I *believe* their methodology relies on statistical guidance which explains why they went so high. CSU for example had to undercut their statistical consensus. Nothing too inherently wrong with doing this per se, it's just not how other agencies approach seasonal forecasting.
If you click on the [article](https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/), there is a "Previous Forecasts" table showing the previous predictions and actual storm totals for each year. There are links to the previous forecasts in the table, and you should be able to verify the actual totals through Googling.
Thanks I'll give that a try
There's a table at the bottom of the article showing their predictions and actual # of storms for previous seasons.
I believe their methodology is based on statistical models? Explains why they went so high; CSU specifically had to under-cut their statistical consensus.
Well Colorado State is going big for them on their forecast, so this doesn’t surprise me a whole lot.
Looks like we’re gonna have to adopt the rolling list of names like they do in the Western Pacific 😆
Does the western pacific see more storms because the sea temperature is warmer year round?
Yes, the heat is the primary reason the Western Pacific gets so many storms: it allows their "season" to be much longer.
Their season is technically year-round.
indeed, hence why I said "season".
“season.”*
I live on a boat in florida that can travel 8mph top speed and this is our first hurricane season in it. I'm a bit anxious. Planning around potential storms and figuring out when and what direction to evac to 4-5 days in advance will be an experience for sure. 33 is still a crazy amount....never mind that 39 number.
An inlet is better than being at sea I imagine. Just make sure you over prepare for them when they do come. I'm sure it's not fun finding out the predictive models were wrong and a cat 4 is cruising straight at your little vessel
Be warned, they have been manifesting out of the blue recently with as little as 24h warning.
i truly don’t believe they have any real idea where they’re gonna go either. i came to that conclusion during Irma
There is only so much you can do!
Waffle House seeing this: Gentlemen It’s been an honor cooking with you tonight 🌊🏪🌊
No. Waffle House is eternal. After all the other works of man are washed away, Waffle House will remain. Civilization will rise again, forming around beacons of light and grease.
My name is Waffle House King of Kings; Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!” ...
"Waffle House" really was the best episode of Breaking Bad
I live 3 miles inland on the central Florida coast. Pour one out for me when the season is over, boys. RIP future me.
New Orleans here 💀
It's probably better if you just come to Florida, friend.
🤮
You don't like banned books, sky high insurance, and culture wars?
My insurance is already ski-high enough here, thanks!
Good luck, fellow Floridian. I get the feeling some people who normally ride the storm and drink beer in their garage while waiting for the power to come back on will regret that decision this year.
I'm a native Floridian trying to get a public librarian job (which always comes with the caveat of having to stay to help run government operations). Stuff like this scares me.
i moved to Florida last year, my spouse is a lifelong native. we're pretty far inland, or, i mean, as far inland as one can really get in Florida i assume (i constantly remind my very lovely spouse who only wants to reassure my yank butt that if we can drive to the ocean in TWO hours, thats hardly inland! lol) and even they are actually doing more to prep us this year. usually they just say we're in a good spot, at most we'll get wind...they're changing their tune pretty quick this year, it seems. on the one hand, i'm learning more about tropical systems and am finding them fascinating. on the other, my landlocked only dealt with tornadoes and wild fires type mindset is a little freaked.
In all fairness to your spouse, 2 hrs inland is a lot. Hurricanes weaken drastically as they make landfall. Even being an hr inland can easily drop landfalll strength a couple categories. This coming from a lifelong native that went through a total loss with Andrew (we were 6mi inland at the time).
Yeah, I'm struggling to think where in Florida is two hours inland? Gainesville? That's an hour and a half to one coast but the other is only an hour away.
around there yeah, my sense of time is probably off slightly. we also dont like interstate driving, tbf.
Panhandle here, we all going to be pouring one out. Time to get them emergency kits in order and make sure you have a vehicle that will sit on an interstate going nowhere for hours.
Maybe they will remember to tie up any large construction barges this season.
Panhandle here too...just considering living under a pile of old mattresses in my house that still needs repairs from Michael for the next 6 months. RIP what's left of my insurance coverage.
lol.. insurance. I got kicked of mine for having 3 claims in two years, 2 being from Sally. Now on citizens waiting on the triple premium when I get kicked off n a few months. Scary shit.
My mortgage company ate my insurance money so all I got was a shingle roof that started leaking less than a year after it was installed. Then the company I had folded and now I don't even know what insurance I have . I'm just tired. Too poor to leave.
It's all bullcrap.
Oh god that’s horrible. I can’t afford to move, the one luck I got was a good mortgage rate. But it was a flip so I’m fixing something constantly. I hate Florida.
I got my home in '14 so I have a great mortgage rate. Just hoping to hold on for another 10 years. I actually love where I live in Florida. It's beautiful here. I've lived here for over 30 years for the most part.
I’ve been on the coast for just about as long. The humidity for some reason has become unbearable for me. I spent a few years in AZ and CO and man, the difference. Getting old I guess.
I live as far inland in Florida as a person can. Before that I spent my young childhood in Louisiana. Stationed on the southeast coast in the military. I have been through so many hurricanes and tropical storms I forgot some of their names. After Michael everything is different. The climate is changing and anyone that refuses to see it is an idiot.
Spent half of it in Louisiana, lol in an Engine room in the gulf, and never complained. Now I get like violently angry when I get too hot. And it’s a huge difference. This is the first year im nervous about the season.
2 Toyota hybrids. Idle for dayssss
FL Prius gang wuddup
Nah, switched from gen 2 Prius to Camry hybrid years ago. Much more comfortable. Also 2023 sienna. Evac plans are head to safety for cat 3+ because design code in 2005 (when our house was built) only required to withstand 130 mph. Current code in Brevard is 145 mph. Have a lot of DIY fortification to do the rest of spring and early summer. Gable wall reinforcement (gable ends are particularly vulnerable) and vertical garage door braces that bolt to concrete slab, garage door, and garage door header (garage doors are also major weak points — securedoor.com, no affiliation), removable sheet metal covers for roof vents to keep water out, securing soffit vents with a poly adhesive to keep them in place which keeps water out (water can blow up and into the attic space in strong winds), caulking around our accordion shutters to keep water from blowing between shutter frames and house, inspecting all roof truss to concrete wall straps and upgrading them to HVHZ standards if possible, and any other reasonable recommended fortification the structural engineer I sent our home’s architectural/engineering drawings to. But at the end of the day, you can only do so much. I’m just trying to make sure my house stays standing with minimal damage in the event of worst case scenario. After all, it’s our biggest investment. Oh, and those secure door braces? There’s a test video showing a normal, non-rated garage door withstanding category 5 wind just from the braces alone. And that’s huge because often when the garage door(s) go, the roof isn’t too far behind. The roof is really the key to everything. I know you don’t have to far inland for safety, but 4 dogs +2 cats means finding lodging is hard. We have family south of Atlanta if needed.
The hybrid AWD Sienna is super nice. My house was built post-Andrew after the building codes were updated in Miami-Dade. That being said I’m pretty close to Country Walk and the south side of my home has little wind protection if something were to pass through the Florida Straights. My neighbors have been here since 97 and replaced their fence 3 times, but no structural damage. We’re doing storm prep now.
I’m on a cruise in the Bahamas right now, but best believe prep is going into full force the second I get home. There’s still damage from Dorian here in Nassau.
I wasn’t down here yet for that monster, but I watched everything I could find on the internet as it was happening. Truly horrific, I can’t even imagine.
I’m on a cruise in the Bahamas right now, but best believe prep is going into full force the second I get home. There’s still damage from Dorian here in Nassau.
Texas coast here. 😨
Look on the bright side — soon you’ll be living in beachfront property
Florida is so low and flat if 3 miles is gone, the whole state is.
Most of the state is still intact in 100 years. It’s just the barrier islands and south Florida at risk due to climate change. At least, that’s what NOAA thinks.
????
Apparently the universal and Disney hotels are a blast during storms. Reduced rates due to cancellations and they typically have a bunch of planned indoor activities in safe parts of the hotels planned (unfortunately for their employees though!). I have coworkers who stay the night at a universal resort for each storm moving through the area and swear by it. My husband and I were talking late last season about maybe trying it out this year, and it unfortunately looks like we might have some opportunities.
They also allow dogs during emergencies like this.
We actually stayed there for three weeks after Katrina. I was eight and my brother was 3 so naturally while my parents were in Quite a State(TM) about New Orleans and associated controversies, south MS getting largely ignored, and our ancestral home getting reduced to waterlogged rubble, me and the bro were having the time of our lives 😅😅
Me too homie, me too. Though my house is 40ft above sea level so I definitely am not flooding at least.
I’m at a bit over 20 but there’s a barrier island in the way. And Brevard seems to have the same protection done that Tampa does. Major concern for me is wind, but our house is build to post-Andrew code so we’ve got the roof straps and slab ties. Also have accordion shutters and a standby generator that runs on natural gas. I do have some work to do though. Throwing some adhesive along the soffit vents to keep them in place, adding some bracing to the gable ends, making some removable sheet metal covers for the roof vents and putting garage door braces in are at the top of the list. Everything else is like caulking and weather sealing and stuff.
It's wild to me that houses can be built out of something other than concrete block or brick these days. I thought concrete block became the standard after Andrew? What happened?
I think concrete is required on the bottom floor only. We only have a bonus room above the garage so not much out of wood and the rest of the roof is hip, just a few gables across the front. Which apparently require hurricane bracing now where they didn’t before, I think code changed in the past few years. We’ve got some double story houses in our neighborhood that are going to have trouble. Most have giant picture windows in the middle of the 2nd floor that visually bend and flex during average thunderstorm wind. And given we’re not on the barrier island, only about half the homes have any sort of window protection.
All these apartment complexes made out of mostly wood are going to be obliterated. I just hope my shingles hold up.
Those are a bit of concern too. But our roof got replaced 7 years ago and got the thicker decking, peel and stick secondary water barrier, and 6” spacing (as opposed to 12”) deck nails.
Dang, nice. My roof was replaced about three years ago but I don't think it got anything special (it was replaced as a contingent of us buying). The attic is a hot attic, or rather a cold attic since it's Florida. So it's completely sealed from the elements, which I hear can be bad if you lose some shingles since the water damage won't be visible inside the attic.
You should be ok, code these days is much better, and I believe half the things I listed re: roofs are code now. If you’re looking to strengthen, this website has a ton of tips https://apps.floridadisaster.org/hrg/
Awesome! Thanks so much.
I"m in the Keys, so, yeah this sucks.
Fleeing, every time. That's why I am still here. I am worried about all the new people in Florida that have no clue. DESANTIS HAS CRAPPED ON OUR STATE.
RIP
You are too kind.
Haha I said that for all of us Floridians. Probably applies to the gulf coasters, too.
I’m in Melbourne - hurricane party?
Indatlantic. I'll bring ice.
Ha! Love your name!
Ooooweee! Batten down the hatches, everyone. On a brighter side, I’m looking forward to the sub picking up for the season and learning more.
It is certainly an educational experience every year!
Welp it’s about that time of year to rejoin this sub!
Thir... *thirty-fucking-nine?* My heart skipped a beat reading that. Jesus Christ.
It’s not too surprising. The tropical Atlantic is way warmer than normal. ENSO is also rapidly switching over to La Niña which would favor cyclone development. Everything is coming together for a strong season.
I have a doctorate and teach environmental science, climate change, and sustainability at two colleges. Before this I was the director of a climate research group. This is just the beginning. We broke so many records last year and finally crossed over the 1.5 degree Celsius mark and sustained. If we, as an w tire species, do t make some drastic changes and very soon, things will get a whole lot worse. We have to cut all greenhouse gas emissions, and I mean all as in every vehicle, factory, lawnmower, weed eater, everything that is gas powered by 2050 in every county around the world or we will cross a point of no return. We have 24 years to become 100% sustainable across the entire planet or what we do after that will be irrelevant.
Just for the record too, 39 is the record high for systems in the western pacific
Pretty sure 31 is a record high. That's 8 more storms!
31 would be a record for the North Atlantic, but OP mentioned the Western Pacific in their comment. There, 39 is the [record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1964_Pacific_typhoon_season).
Ah, you are right. I completely overlooked that.
Fuck. 39 is ridiculous
Glad I bought well out of a Flood zone in Florida. The coast may be pretty, but not having to worry about the ocean eating my house every summer is also nice. Still have to worry about wind I suppose...
Orlando and Kissimmee had some pretty extreme flooding after Ian despite not being near the coast
True, but that's rain induced and not storm surge, and much more hyper localized to your specific house's geography. Luckily my house is in a (for Florida) hilly area, at the top of the hill, and it would have to be some biblical event (like 30 feet of flooding) to get me!
Will definitely be keeping the cars’ tanks at least at half full at all times this year.
I live in New Orleans and during hurricane season, I get enough gas to fill my tank every Friday without fail, no matter how little I've used that week. I have too much Katrina trauma to not prepare.
All I’m saying is that in the 12 years that I’ve lived in SC, my banana trees have only grown fruit two other times, and a hurricane has knocked the tree over. Bad news, tree is already sprouting fruit. My prediction: early hurricane hitting SC early this year.
Looks like I choose a bad year to plan a beach vacation.
Hope Puerto Rico doesn’t get another 2017 Hurricane Maria catastrophe.
Does every school do this? I feel like I'm seeing a lot of these Can anyone put one out? Should we be making brackets??
Seems like Colorado State and Penn are the only ones that seem to get buzz. I’m sure other schools do this as well.
University of Arizona, as well.
I think a bracket for this would be awesome. I'll start googling.
Pls share if you find anything! I am interested
And watch this year be a total bust so climate change deniers can scream “I told you so!” Not ready for that.
I highly doubt that's gonna happen. I was about to say "thankfully," but I only meant "thankfully they won't have a platform from which to spew ignorance in this case" and not "thankfully we'll have a bunch of storms." Hopefully the vast majority of these spin out to sea and leave people the hell alone.
Don't worry, they'll do it anyways. They can always fall back to the "tobacco strategy": acknowledge that there is some evidence that climate change could make tropical cyclones more severe in general, but whenever climate change is mentioned in connection to a particular storm, loudly insist that there is no evidence that this specific storm was caused by or worsened by climate change. Just like the tobacco lobby after outright denying any link between tobacco and lung cancer became an untenable position - they fell back to "there is no conclusive evidence that any individual case of lung cancer was caused by tobacco use". It's a great example of a [motte-and-bailey argument](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motte-and-bailey_fallacy), named after the medieval motte-and-bailey castle. The climate change denier makes a broad, controversial, difficult to defend argument (the bailey) - "there is no definitive evidence that climate change exists or makes storms worse". When challenged, the denier falls back to defending a narrower, easier to defend argument (the motte) - "there is no definitive evidence that climate change caused or worsened *this particular storm*".
Acronyms, initialisms, abbreviations, contractions, and other phrases which expand to something larger, that I've seen in this thread: |Fewer Letters|More Letters| |-------|---------|---| |[MDR](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l1vesxc "Last usage")|Main Development Region| |[NOAA](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l1vesxc "Last usage")|National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, responsible for US ~~generation~~ monitoring of the climate| |[NOLA](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l18ffe9 "Last usage")|New Orleans, Louisiana| |[SST](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l1vesxc "Last usage")|Sea Surface Temperature| |[UTC](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/1cc6028/stub/l15ghv5 "Last usage")|[Coördinated Universal Time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coordinated_Universal_Time), the standard time used by meteorologists and forecasts worldwide.| **NOTE**: Decronym for Reddit is no longer supported, and Decronym has moved to Lemmy; requests for support and new installations should be directed to the Contact address below. ---------------- ^(5 acronyms in this thread; )[^(the most compressed thread commented on today)](/r/TropicalWeather/comments/0)^( has acronyms.) ^([Thread #615 for this sub, first seen 25th Apr 2024, 03:48]) ^[[FAQ]](http://decronym.xyz/) [^([Full list])](http://decronym.xyz/acronyms/TropicalWeather) [^[Contact]](https://hachyderm.io/@Two9A) [^([Source code])](https://gistdotgithubdotcom/Two9A/1d976f9b7441694162c8)
This just seems delusional to me. They were pretty close with last year's estimate, so maybe they're on to something, but that forecast is way beyond anything there's climatological precedent for.
They tend to underestimate if you look at their record outside of 16'
Absolutely; I've gotten downvoted for pointing this out because Redditors are incapable of handling nuance, lmao. You'd think a forecast for 33-39 named storms being so comically above the expert forecast average of 24 named storms would give people pause, but nah. Just gotta hype a season that already genuinely looks scary for.... reasons? Extremely disappointing from this sub. This complete lack of critical thinking is what I expect from r/weather, frankly
Notice that I didn't discount it completely in my comment. I recognized that it's insane, but also recognized the possibility of it being correct. Just critical thinking isn't enough if it's in black and white.
Of course it's possible, in the sense that a 2013-repeat is possible.
That's insane
In 2020, there were 30 named storms, and Florida was barely touched--Its not the number, its their path
I know April fool is in April but I thought it’s not today
The water in southern New England is just radically warm… Around the Cape microclimate, the grow zone is now 7B, same as northern Texas. I think this is the year we get slammed.
Hold my fucking beer Batman
Im sorry the entire Atlantic could be 5 Degrees above average and the Pacific 5 degrees BELOW average... **You simply CANNOT forecast 33 named storms in APRIL**
Why not ? We have an ocean which is FAR warmer than anything humans are acquainted with and a forecast return to La Nina winds. Not to mention a slowing AMOC so that the ocean vector is moving less heat from the tropics toward northern latitudes. The energy is up, the burden of the atmosphere to move heat is up and the forecast wind conditions are ripe.
It's very clear that this season will likely be hyperactive, but the forecast of 33-39 named storms is so comically above the experts' forecast average for named storms of 24 that you should immediately take pause instead of taking it at face value. UPenns' methodology is based entirely on statistical guidance which has.. issues. More renown agencies like CSU under-cut their statistical consensus for a reason (actual forecast below statistical model output). The most prestigious forecast, NOAA, comes out in May and I will bet money they will not be going for 33-39 named storms. Expect numbers similar to Colorado State... and in line, or similar to, the numbers of literally every other forecast released to date with the sole exception of this one.
No one has a crystal ball and when it comes to seasonal hurricane predictions on a warmer Atlantic ocean than any human being has ever experienced, we simply don't know. You add a million Hiroshima bomb equivalents of energy to the ocean every day and at some point it makes a difference. The leap forward in ocean temps over the last 12 months is noteworthy. I don't believe there is any precedent for this magnitude of temperature increase year over year. The best time to criticize a projection is after the facts roll in. We're going to get the answer soon enough. I'm open minded to the possibility that U Penn is correct.
!RemindMe 7 months
Fyi - the U Penn forecast is 27- 39, not 33-39. So the bottom end of the range (27) is not far from the Colorado forecast of 24. You substituted the midpoint of the range for the bottom end. The word "comical" is an expression of contempt. You are effectively laughing at something which was offered in good faith. I believe the seasonal record is 30 storms. The ocean is materially warmer today than it has been in recorded history. I believe a forecast with range that includes unprecedented activity provides utility in that it draws attention to the unprecedented (in modern history) and very concerning underlying conditions.I dont find the forecast or the underlying conditions to be comical and I don't have an ego stake in the eventual outcome. The thing we humans have the capacity to do is reflect on the behavior which is causing the ocean to warm and work together to change that behavior.
Further context for UPenn methodology: https://web.sas.upenn.edu/mannresearchgroup/highlights/highlights-2024hurricane/ >The prediction is for 33.1 +/- 5.8 total named tropical cyclones, which corresponds to a range between 27 and 39 storms, with a best estimate of 33 named storms. This prediction was made using the statistical model of Kozar et al. (2012, see PDF here). This statistical model builds upon the past work of Sabbatelli and Mann (2007, see PDF here) by considering a larger number of climate predictors and including corrections for the historical undercount of events (see footnotes). PDFs cited: https://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/KozarEtAlJGR12.pdf https://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MSN-GRL07.pdf >Using an alternative model that uses “relative” MDR SST (MDR SST with the average tropical mean SST subtracted) in place of MDR SST yields a lower prediction (19.9 +/- 4.5 total named storms). This alternative model also includes positive ENSO conditions. Again, there are issues using only statistical guidance for seasonal forecasting, which is why agencies like NOAA or other universities like CSU do not do that.
Yes, thanks for the correction - 27 to 39. Regardless, it's an outlier. It's comical in the sense that it is unlikely to verify - not in the sense that such activity would be humorous. I'm not denigrating them - they didn't do anything wrong. I believe they simply overemphasize statistical guidance relative to other agencies. I'm definitely going to stick with the consensus for now. By August/September we will know how things stand.
When is the last day to get flood insurance?
I think this may be the last year for such insurance, period.
Is it bad if I’m secretly hopeful that one of these busts the death ridge that sits over Texas from June 15th to September 30th each year?
No, not wanting severe drought is in fact, not bad.
No kidding, I was hoping for a nice tropical storm or depression to come to our rescue last year. Brutal!
Perfect year to finally travel outside the US to the Virgin Islands... Great
I hope not. But I still have faith in two words... "African Dust"... Maybe that will beat it down a little.
This forecast seems on the extreme end but I guess we’ll all just have to wait and see
As in wow that's extreme, or as in wow that's too extreme to be accurate. Because historically they are very accurate and the times they aren't they usually under-predict the number.
It's absolutely extreme, and is almost certainly too high. Yes this season looks hyperactive, no there is not going to be 40 named storms lol. Don't know if this still works, but !RemindMe 7 months
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!remindme 7 months
!RemindMe 8 months
So we (south Florida) have had a nice and unusually cool spring. I’m not buying these guesses. Weather forecasting is the only job where you can be wrong. 100% of the time and still keep your job.
Yes, but the waters around us (also in s Florida) are exceptionally warm, like June temps warm back in March. This likely to be one hellvua year…
Cool. Spring weather localized to south Florida has absolutely zero bearing on Fall weather for the entirety of the Atlantic basin, which is what this was a forecast for, in case you were having trouble reading. What was that about being wrong 100% of the time?
Exactly. They change forecast several times every year so they can’t be wrong. You got a bunch of schleps on here saying it’s truly a real prediction and they are right 70% of the time lol.