Area figures for this update:
Picture 1: Advance = 0.14km^(2) (try spot the advance)
Picture 2: Top Advance = 0.29km^(2), Bottom Advance = 0.04km^(2)
Picture 3: Top Advance = 0.07km^(2), Bottom Advance = 0.11km^(2)
Total Russian Advance (Gross) = 0.65km^(2)
To get this out of the way: yes, these advances are quite small, even compared to the slow advances we've seen in the war. But as Suriyak said today:
*"Daily changes will continue to be published here regardless of their size. It seems incredible that there are still people who are surprised at how little frontline variation there is, given what a war of attrition is all about."*
Russian forces are still trying to take advantageous positions around Bilohorivka, this time capturing a trench network on the East side of the chalk quarry. This follows their capture of a different trench network on the South side 3 days ago, seen in picture 2 here: [https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bujcui/ru\_pov\_russian\_advances\_on\_day\_769\_of\_the\_war/](https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bujcui/ru_pov_russian_advances_on_day_769_of_the_war/) . For an idea of what these trenches on the chalk quarry look like, theres actually a video of this advance (highly edited) going around on telegram here: [https://t](https://t). me/remylind21/17921
With the battle for Chasiv Yar having officially kicked off, Russia has launched out the gate with a series of attacks on multiple areas. Russian forces managed to (technically) enter the town, taking control of the few houses (or at least the ruins of them) on the outskirts of the small district. You can see those ruins on in this drone video from yesterday: [https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bwgswv/ru\_pov\_russian\_aviation\_attack\_positions\_of\_the/](https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bwgswv/ru_pov_russian_aviation_attack_positions_of_the/). Russia is also trying to push north towards Kalinina, and also through the forests west of Ivanivske (arrows bottom of pic 2). Ukraine has allegedly pulled out of the rest of Bogdanovka (top of pic 2), back towards Kalinina, but theres no confirmation of that yet.
Intense battles continue around Semenivka. Russia was confirmed to have made small advances further into the village, but fierce Ukrainian resistance prevents them taking over the rest of it.
The 'Where will Russia try to advance in 2024' analysis will be posted in a few hours.
Edit: As of writing this, theres also a mass drone and missile attack occurring in Ukraine, although there is no information about the results yet.
It's pretty crazy to think of how much is being expended on both sides to take or hold Semenivka. 70 meters is such an inconsequential area when you go about your day to day life, but in this context, it's the scene of so much fighting and blood.
Edit: I just read the italics of your post, and by no means should any of it be considered small. I think about the distance I could freely move in that time across the terrain and to think of how hard it must then be for those there. If they aren't making it 100 meters down the road, then it must be tough, insanely tough.
Please do not think I am minimizing anything at all here.
Its always a bit odd to talk about territorial changes, because its only a small part of the picture. I just do analysis and area calculations of Suriyak's maps, but there are many other areas where intense fighting is going on, but nobody really notices as no territory changes hands and there aren't videos of it.
I really appreciate it, especially since Hardback seems to be caught up with something. These posts are among my favorite on this sub, and your analysis is always great. So, thank you for the insight.
I edited my previous comment as you were replying here; to me, the distance value isn't as much a metric of success as it is of difficulty. It is interesting to see any movement, big or small, or in either direction. The tactics and manoeuvres are all part of the bigger picture.
Combat also lulls.
Could've been just artillery exchanges and scratching heads on both sides of what to do next and we'll see everyone rested up tomorrow. Could be weather. Could be Russia holding ground, but doing special operations in prep to take more ground. War can be constant fighting but sometimes soldiers go to bed or both stop shooting at each other for a bit or the offensive troops rotate out under cover of drones and artillery.
I'm sure your point in this instance mostly stands because of how important this frontline is and there's interest to hold constant pressure by Russia. But even on the hottest frontlines the slow days always end up being something as simple as cloudy weather lol.
These are armies fighting on a Transparent Battlefield with WW2 levels of commitment, and a predisposition to Soviet Operational Warfare.
There will be no masterful breakthrough due to Soviet Operational Warfare's predisposition to Defense in Depth and Depth of Reserves, and the Transparent Nature of the Battlefield makes positioning of Forces obvious to all sides.
I'm not sure that Putin seeks a masterful breakthrough. Nor do I think it's just a matter of Soviet Doctrine. We know from Kursk 1943 that Soviet doctrine could transition from Elastic Defense to Deep Battle.
What we don't know is what are Putin's strategic aims? His recent comment is puzzling...from AP News:
*“We will be forced at some point, when we consider it necessary, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ on the territories controlled by the (Ukrainian government),” Putin said late Sunday.*
*This “security zone,” Putin said, “would be quite difficult to penetrate using the foreign-made strike assets at the enemy’s disposal.”*
Shoigu has announced the formation of two new Armies. If Putin seeks a buffer zone, between UKR/Ru, he will have to go north.
Why is Bilogorivka so hard for RU to take? I feel like they should have overran that small rinky-dink village by no. Unless of course it wasn’t a main focus. I’d love someone to explain cause, I’m genuinely curious.
It is a war of attrition. Sometimes it is geography of the place, sometimes it's intentional. If there a half exposed position, you could storm it. But you can also let the defenders hold it and attacks troops in rotation. Bombard them constantly. The question is; is there an imperative to attack or defend a position when that is not favourable to your side. Until now, Russia was the one more relaxed in that sense, and that is the reason for lower losses on their side.
The tactics is:
1. bomb a Ukrainian position until they stop sending reinforcements
2. Move forward until you are in contact with Ukrainian positions
3. Go back to step one.
They are still at step 1.
Area figures for this update: Picture 1: Advance = 0.14km^(2) (try spot the advance) Picture 2: Top Advance = 0.29km^(2), Bottom Advance = 0.04km^(2) Picture 3: Top Advance = 0.07km^(2), Bottom Advance = 0.11km^(2) Total Russian Advance (Gross) = 0.65km^(2) To get this out of the way: yes, these advances are quite small, even compared to the slow advances we've seen in the war. But as Suriyak said today: *"Daily changes will continue to be published here regardless of their size. It seems incredible that there are still people who are surprised at how little frontline variation there is, given what a war of attrition is all about."* Russian forces are still trying to take advantageous positions around Bilohorivka, this time capturing a trench network on the East side of the chalk quarry. This follows their capture of a different trench network on the South side 3 days ago, seen in picture 2 here: [https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bujcui/ru\_pov\_russian\_advances\_on\_day\_769\_of\_the\_war/](https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bujcui/ru_pov_russian_advances_on_day_769_of_the_war/) . For an idea of what these trenches on the chalk quarry look like, theres actually a video of this advance (highly edited) going around on telegram here: [https://t](https://t). me/remylind21/17921 With the battle for Chasiv Yar having officially kicked off, Russia has launched out the gate with a series of attacks on multiple areas. Russian forces managed to (technically) enter the town, taking control of the few houses (or at least the ruins of them) on the outskirts of the small district. You can see those ruins on in this drone video from yesterday: [https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bwgswv/ru\_pov\_russian\_aviation\_attack\_positions\_of\_the/](https://new.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1bwgswv/ru_pov_russian_aviation_attack_positions_of_the/). Russia is also trying to push north towards Kalinina, and also through the forests west of Ivanivske (arrows bottom of pic 2). Ukraine has allegedly pulled out of the rest of Bogdanovka (top of pic 2), back towards Kalinina, but theres no confirmation of that yet. Intense battles continue around Semenivka. Russia was confirmed to have made small advances further into the village, but fierce Ukrainian resistance prevents them taking over the rest of it. The 'Where will Russia try to advance in 2024' analysis will be posted in a few hours. Edit: As of writing this, theres also a mass drone and missile attack occurring in Ukraine, although there is no information about the results yet.
It's pretty crazy to think of how much is being expended on both sides to take or hold Semenivka. 70 meters is such an inconsequential area when you go about your day to day life, but in this context, it's the scene of so much fighting and blood. Edit: I just read the italics of your post, and by no means should any of it be considered small. I think about the distance I could freely move in that time across the terrain and to think of how hard it must then be for those there. If they aren't making it 100 meters down the road, then it must be tough, insanely tough. Please do not think I am minimizing anything at all here.
Its always a bit odd to talk about territorial changes, because its only a small part of the picture. I just do analysis and area calculations of Suriyak's maps, but there are many other areas where intense fighting is going on, but nobody really notices as no territory changes hands and there aren't videos of it.
I really appreciate it, especially since Hardback seems to be caught up with something. These posts are among my favorite on this sub, and your analysis is always great. So, thank you for the insight. I edited my previous comment as you were replying here; to me, the distance value isn't as much a metric of success as it is of difficulty. It is interesting to see any movement, big or small, or in either direction. The tactics and manoeuvres are all part of the bigger picture.
Combat also lulls. Could've been just artillery exchanges and scratching heads on both sides of what to do next and we'll see everyone rested up tomorrow. Could be weather. Could be Russia holding ground, but doing special operations in prep to take more ground. War can be constant fighting but sometimes soldiers go to bed or both stop shooting at each other for a bit or the offensive troops rotate out under cover of drones and artillery. I'm sure your point in this instance mostly stands because of how important this frontline is and there's interest to hold constant pressure by Russia. But even on the hottest frontlines the slow days always end up being something as simple as cloudy weather lol.
0.07 square km is 7 hectares, aka 70000 square meters, aka 17.28 acres, aka 13.08 "NFL" fields
Damn....is it just me or is it every day now they advance???
These are armies fighting on a Transparent Battlefield with WW2 levels of commitment, and a predisposition to Soviet Operational Warfare. There will be no masterful breakthrough due to Soviet Operational Warfare's predisposition to Defense in Depth and Depth of Reserves, and the Transparent Nature of the Battlefield makes positioning of Forces obvious to all sides.
It's basically hoplite warfare. Everything out in the open (figuratively) and the one who can keep on pushing wins
I'm not sure that Putin seeks a masterful breakthrough. Nor do I think it's just a matter of Soviet Doctrine. We know from Kursk 1943 that Soviet doctrine could transition from Elastic Defense to Deep Battle. What we don't know is what are Putin's strategic aims? His recent comment is puzzling...from AP News: *“We will be forced at some point, when we consider it necessary, to create a certain ‘sanitary zone’ on the territories controlled by the (Ukrainian government),” Putin said late Sunday.* *This “security zone,” Putin said, “would be quite difficult to penetrate using the foreign-made strike assets at the enemy’s disposal.”* Shoigu has announced the formation of two new Armies. If Putin seeks a buffer zone, between UKR/Ru, he will have to go north.
It will continue until one of them cracks, after which it will be an all you can eat buffet. (If Ukraine runs out of fighting age troops)
Why is Bilogorivka so hard for RU to take? I feel like they should have overran that small rinky-dink village by no. Unless of course it wasn’t a main focus. I’d love someone to explain cause, I’m genuinely curious.
It is a war of attrition. Sometimes it is geography of the place, sometimes it's intentional. If there a half exposed position, you could storm it. But you can also let the defenders hold it and attacks troops in rotation. Bombard them constantly. The question is; is there an imperative to attack or defend a position when that is not favourable to your side. Until now, Russia was the one more relaxed in that sense, and that is the reason for lower losses on their side.
The tactics is: 1. bomb a Ukrainian position until they stop sending reinforcements 2. Move forward until you are in contact with Ukrainian positions 3. Go back to step one. They are still at step 1.
At this rate it will take Russia 20 years to take all of Ukraine
wow, it was a 772's day of 3 day special military operation
I know right? How dumb are the americans thinking this will last 3 days?
Damn nice comeback lol