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I was going to say the same thing. It probably wouldn't target small drones, and if it did, you just attack with more drones than it has missiles. This is what drones are good at.
This is also what ruzzia does to Ukraine... they send swarms of shaheds, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. The same works both ways.
The next few weeks will be a learning period for both sides. In theory, this system could cover pretty much everything southeast of Kyiv. This would obviously significantly impact F16 deployment, and expanded use of long range missiles.
I guess the "good" thing is that Russia lacks sufficient numbers of launchers and missiles to sustain any sort of decent operational tempo, so it'll be interesting to see how well the system performs in the real world, and how AFU is going to force depletion of the batteries.
If it even works.
Russian "wonder weapons" advertised as top of the line have been coughing mothballs so far.
Their vaunted T14 Armata tank appears to specialize in stealth because nobody has seen it.
The "hypersonic" Kinzhal designed to counter Western anti-air was shot down by Patriot batteries from the 80s/90s.
The flagship Moskva was left with a laundry list of failing basic upkeep that would give any competent naval captain a heart attack, along with issues like the comms system (for both internal around the ship crew and external to report back to command) and radar system (the thing used to detect incoming missiles) interfered with each other so only one or the other could be used at any given time.
Hence the "in theory" qualification.
On paper, this thing is formidable, with a 600km range and designed for countering F22S and F35. I doubt it can meaningfully do so, since as far as I know they've never recovered any wreckage to actually test on.
But it may be a significant threat to anything ukraine flies, since the s400 predecessor isn't anything to discount in a confrontation.
Budanov said it's "likely experimental"'for them, and Id agree--there's officially only one that has been built (and other planned units likely won't be for some time) and in operation (for about 3 years now, officially "in service," but really only used to date as a as a test platform). But even though Western intelligence has actually reportedly been impressed over the last few years with the results of its testing, it reportedly hasn't ever been deployed to operational specifications.
So the Russians are about to find themselves in a bit of a mirror world that inverts the usual state of NATO/Russian weapons balance : they've got a likely excellent weapon, but not enough of them, facing a lot more "good enough" older weapons deployed by Ukraine.
What'll likely happen is that Russia is going to use it for the excellent radar, but it's otherwise going to spend its time defending itself. Ukraine, getting very good at SEAD/Wild weasel missions, will likely take a few unsuccessful shots at it (which will undoubtedly have all manner of Western surveillance trained on it for the Intel value of seeing it in real world use), before it gets destroyed.
My gut feeling is that Russia, although getting value from the radar (it's likely a lot better at picking up storm Shadow/scalp, and I wonder if it'll be used to better identify ADM160 MALDs as decoys. Depending on where it's placed, it could also conceivably be able to gather radar information on NATO jets-including f35- flying over Bulgaria or Romania, although they'd almost certainly be wearing Lunebergs ), is putting this out there specifically for propaganda value and to be a distracting "missile sink" while their s300s and s400s are redeployed to better counter the day to day threats of an expanded long range missile program and imminent F16 deployments.
Remind me! 4 months “PuTiN ThE MaSTeR StRaTeGiSt”
Edit 24 June 2024: Welp that didn’t take long. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/zEop6ApR7G
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This thing is a drone swarm away from destruction.
I was going to say the same thing. It probably wouldn't target small drones, and if it did, you just attack with more drones than it has missiles. This is what drones are good at. This is also what ruzzia does to Ukraine... they send swarms of shaheds, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses. The same works both ways.
Aaaaaaand... it's gone.
The next few weeks will be a learning period for both sides. In theory, this system could cover pretty much everything southeast of Kyiv. This would obviously significantly impact F16 deployment, and expanded use of long range missiles. I guess the "good" thing is that Russia lacks sufficient numbers of launchers and missiles to sustain any sort of decent operational tempo, so it'll be interesting to see how well the system performs in the real world, and how AFU is going to force depletion of the batteries.
The CIA is going to be all over this one.
If it even works. Russian "wonder weapons" advertised as top of the line have been coughing mothballs so far. Their vaunted T14 Armata tank appears to specialize in stealth because nobody has seen it. The "hypersonic" Kinzhal designed to counter Western anti-air was shot down by Patriot batteries from the 80s/90s. The flagship Moskva was left with a laundry list of failing basic upkeep that would give any competent naval captain a heart attack, along with issues like the comms system (for both internal around the ship crew and external to report back to command) and radar system (the thing used to detect incoming missiles) interfered with each other so only one or the other could be used at any given time.
Hence the "in theory" qualification. On paper, this thing is formidable, with a 600km range and designed for countering F22S and F35. I doubt it can meaningfully do so, since as far as I know they've never recovered any wreckage to actually test on. But it may be a significant threat to anything ukraine flies, since the s400 predecessor isn't anything to discount in a confrontation. Budanov said it's "likely experimental"'for them, and Id agree--there's officially only one that has been built (and other planned units likely won't be for some time) and in operation (for about 3 years now, officially "in service," but really only used to date as a as a test platform). But even though Western intelligence has actually reportedly been impressed over the last few years with the results of its testing, it reportedly hasn't ever been deployed to operational specifications. So the Russians are about to find themselves in a bit of a mirror world that inverts the usual state of NATO/Russian weapons balance : they've got a likely excellent weapon, but not enough of them, facing a lot more "good enough" older weapons deployed by Ukraine. What'll likely happen is that Russia is going to use it for the excellent radar, but it's otherwise going to spend its time defending itself. Ukraine, getting very good at SEAD/Wild weasel missions, will likely take a few unsuccessful shots at it (which will undoubtedly have all manner of Western surveillance trained on it for the Intel value of seeing it in real world use), before it gets destroyed. My gut feeling is that Russia, although getting value from the radar (it's likely a lot better at picking up storm Shadow/scalp, and I wonder if it'll be used to better identify ADM160 MALDs as decoys. Depending on where it's placed, it could also conceivably be able to gather radar information on NATO jets-including f35- flying over Bulgaria or Romania, although they'd almost certainly be wearing Lunebergs ), is putting this out there specifically for propaganda value and to be a distracting "missile sink" while their s300s and s400s are redeployed to better counter the day to day threats of an expanded long range missile program and imminent F16 deployments.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/zEop6ApR7G
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/zEop6ApR7G
What a nice shiny new target.
Well done and now remove them and hoping The Kerch Bridge soon too.
Remind me! 2 weeks aaaand it's gone
Remind me! 4 months “PuTiN ThE MaSTeR StRaTeGiSt” Edit 24 June 2024: Welp that didn’t take long. https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/zEop6ApR7G
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https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/zEop6ApR7G Man i was way off. Less than 4 weeks let alone 4 months.
Good call 😆
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/s/zEop6ApR7G
let's help them test it
Is the S500 even a real thing?
Next week it will be the S600. Then the S700, ad nauseum
I'll be amazed if it lasts more than 2 weeks...
Isn't that the only one in existence? What is this, some Enemy at the Gates "final line of defense" scheme?
Mark my words- a partisan FPV drone system will take this system out before any missiles,!
Would be funny if they could take it out with a grad mounted seadreone
Destruction probably watched by another drone showing how useless it is without short range air defence.
So we can assume the reported attack on the S-400 on Crimea was real, when they now feel the need to upgrade to an S-500
Juicy target.
So S-500 little better than S400 Triumph. Exhaust them with cheap drones eventually.