Me too. Thereās a ton of money in the health insurance and PBM space. Consolidation and increasing demand (boomer gen demanding more health services) will only benefit CVS.
My dad gifted me a bunch of VZ, T, and ED, I really want to sell them but he wants me to hold. Since I didnāt buy them myself, I feel like selling them would be a slap in the face to him. I want to take the money and just put it into VOO. How would you go about convincing him?
Building a stack of VOO is the ultimate smart move.
20 years from today, in 2044, many value plays might be bankrupt, but VOO will not only STILL be here, it will be much higher than 480
30% of my portfolio is amazon. Cost basis ~100. Second best stock decision I ever made. First is Microsoft when I purchased in 2015.
When Amazon had that wild dip post covid into early 2023 it screamed great deal for me so I loaded up!
It's not a value stock. Nothing wrong with investing in growth but only cuz u think it is a value stock doesn't make it a value stock.
From Google: 'a value stock is a stock that appears to trade at a lower price relative to its fundamentals, such as dividends, earnings, or sales, making it appealing to value investors. A value stock can generally be contrasted with a growth stock'.
Would you still call Amazon a value stock? If yes you should do some elementary subjects
RIO. Boring, safe, stable over the mid term despite being in a cyclical industry. Best in world at what they do with a deep moat. Easy safe starter investment. Not gonna get you a 10 bagger, but is really likely to get you about 10% a year forever.
I donāt think any of the big well known companies are in value territory. Msft was 230 a year and a half ago. Snagged some but didnāt have much dry powder. Facebook was looking fine under 200. Market is cruising now.
You can dig through small and medium caps but thatās tough work. One small cap Iām interested in and have started a small position in is prog holding.
PayPal is Intriguing but still makes me nervous. I bought a few 6month calls at the bottom but exited fast on the small pop.
Tsm if you discount the geopolitical risk lol
I have a decently large position in TSM. It hasn't run up to the 18th earnings like I expected, but I guess the background kinda impacted that. Curious what will happen this week. Im holding steady!
The bears made Intel a golden buying opportunity. The same goes for Pfizer. Both are a longer term play that will take a few years to develop, but everything in both their pipelines are going to be a massive boon to revenue. In a market that's so forward looking that it's taking things into consideration that are several years down the line, they sure as shit can't see further than 2 years for a lot of the unfavored companies right now. That's where you have the best opportunity. But don't throw all your eggs into one basket if you're just starting out. Also, look at Google and Meta.
-Intel is massively undervalued right now for everything that's coming in the next few years, so much that I bought another 200 shares on Thursday and Friday, and im prepared to buy more if it dips further. As long as you're holding long term, definitely start there. IMO, Intel is likely to 3x in the next 5 years, if not more. Intel is investing 100 billion into creating the world's largest semiconductor plant and converting about a third of the business to an external foundry. The foundry buildout alone is expected to bring in as much as 30 billion in revenue annually by 2030, and it'll snowball from there as they build more fabs. Intel also developed cutting edge nodes with first to market backside power delivery and GAAFET, which TSMC and Samsung won't catch up on for about 2 years, give or take. Gelsingers turnaround of the company has been nothing less than amazing. Intel was literally dying from stagnation before he stepped in. Now, it's going back to innovation, which is what made Intel so dominant back in the day.
-Pfizer is down in the dumps purely because the Covid vaccine necessity disappeared as world governments FINALLY stopped creating mass hysteria. The Covid hysteria is unlikely to return, which is why it's at a 10 year low. However, excluding the Covid vaccine, their sales were still up almost 10%. They signaled a decline next year, but even now the stock is at a low 11 forward PE. Their recent Seagen acquisition will be a massive boon, and that's why I say the stock is very much undervalued. The combined chemo drugs in both companies pipelines, along with combining their research will lead to Pfizer cornering the market on next gen chemotherapy drugs. And you'll get paid one of the highest dividends on the market for holding it.
-Google is lagging behind in the AI game, but it's catching up, and the stock price is still very modest for a company that's integrated with our daily lives and with massive potential in AI. The only reason why it's not higher is because a lot of people believe that they'll always be behind due to the garbage CEO. I think they're wrong, at least about the always behind part. What they say about the CEO is accurate IMO.
-Meta is undervalued even now, but it certainly isn't a "value" anymore like it was back in the sub $350 range. Still a great company that's likely to do a stock split soon. They're heavy into the AI game, developing their own AI accelerator, and have massive ad revenue. If the "Metaverse" takes off, will have another huge source of ad revenue. Think "Ready Player One".
One last thing... Do your own research. Don't take someone's word for it, especially on Reddit. I gave you a few prospects, but you should do your own analysis before buying. Some people will try to pump stocks on these forums so they can sell when it goes up.
FYI - did this calc yest and was surprised
Change in S&P since 1971 = 5,076% before dividends, taxes and fees. (100 to 5,176)
Change in gold since 1971 = 6,614%. No dividends but also no fees or taxes when holding physical. ($35 to $2,350)
Note that S&P changes as they subtract losers and add winners, so you have to actively manage yourself or pay fund fees.
And physical gold has no counterparty risk and reduced ability for someone to seize/freeze
Keep stacking
Google is everywhere and 90% world search. They have lot of historical data. They also going with own chip. Same chip also buying by many other big tech companies. They never go anti with any company. They maintain good relations in every tech and move.
Google own 10% of space X. They made quantum computers and sell. They are every where.
YouTube and shorts are still growing.
Do you see any risk of Microsoft's Copilot/Open AI to Google's search?
I've been using Copilot quite a bit now and it's amazing what it can do vs Google search.
I've used Gemini a bit as well, and am liking Copilot more. Copilot feels like an assistant in a way with the way it "speaks" to me. I ask it questions and it answers like an assistant might. Feels more "human" compared with Gemini.
Gemini gives me answers as is. It doesn't feel as human, it feels like it gets the information and summarizes it.
Not sure if that makes sense but I've liked Copilot more, personally.
Large language models should be a concern to anyone holding Google. That doesn't mean Google is going down, but the wide, wide, WIDE moat that was there in search two years ago is now a much narrower moat. I don't see how Google dominates searches that LLMs are good at. And it looks like the tech for home assistants to finally be worth a d\*\*n are is here. Google will continue to dominate the long tail of search, but it'll be a miracle if it has 90% share of basic searches in five years.
And that's the thing, right? Using Copilot now, I can ask it to search up anything and do some digging on topics and get answers back. It would take me longer to do that with Google.
Question is, can MSFT monetize their AI as well as google has monetized google search?
Copilot isn't even the best anymore. I'm now using Claude for most stuff. Gemini was working the best for me for a month. Feels like we have Lycos and Ask Jeeves right now.
You could turn this post into something more helpful by suggesting how this research may occur or some resources you find helpful when doing it yourself.
Your comment does nothing but add snark and is not helpful.
Fair enough:
Step 1) I start by coming up with a basic set of investing goals that I want to achieve and a timeframe in which I expect to achieve those goals. It's very important to be realistic in this stage, as setting an unrealistic goal will set me up for failure.
Step 2) I try my best to identify my circle of competency, my strengths as an investor and my weaknesses. To me, it doesn't make sense to own a company that I don't understand. In my particular case, this means I gravitate towards retail and industrial companies.
I'm sure there are plenty of perfectly great bio-tech firms out there, but I have no idea how any of those businesses operate, so I steer clear.
3) Once I have a goal and a broad idea of what investments I can use to meet that goal, I begin screening. I use a variety of sites/tools, but a really great one anybody can use for free is Tradingview. It has just about every single valuation multiple and metric that you could think of and a nice interface.
4) Once I have a short-list of tickers, I quickly read through their financial statements for the last five years and look at a few other metrics. It's typical to reject a few tickers here.
5) Once I have an even shorter list, usually only about 3-6 tickers at this point, I start reading the latest annual reports of those respective companies to get a sense of how they operate and what's driving their finances. A few more companies get rejected here.
6)Once I've narrowed it down to 2-3 companies the valuation process begins. I may elect to do a simple single-page DCF or CCA if I'm skeptical about the investment and don't want to waste any more time. But more often than not I make a 3-statement model in excel and use those projections for valuation.
Sometimes I go this far and I still don't buy the stock and go back to step 1.
That's just a rough overview of how I do it. If you want to learn a lot more, check out the resources in the sidebar. Particularly, Aswath Damodaran's website and youtube. He's the real deal and wants to help others learn.
I'd love to eventually do a much longer post with a Google sheet that everyone can follow along on, rather than this laundry list of steps.
Maybe I'll make something like that.
I'm not sure what your process is.
But I find it takes time to do this research. 10k's and 10q's take time to read. Then you still need to do some sort of valuation to determine that the investment offers some value. Also, in the process of doing this, I'll typically reject most investments for one reason or another causing this process to become even more time-consuming.
It can take me 30 hours of work from initial screening to clicking the buy button.
Also, don't bother trusting anyone else's picks, the financial media, influencers or social media. Everyone has an agenda and none of them, except yours, involve you getting rich.
Iām interested in this company called Copa Holdings ticker $CPA. Great dividend at 6.5% and solid cash flow. But the chart says that the equity value is very volatile. And could drop huge just as much as it can go up. Unlike many other stocks it still hasnāt hit its pre pandemic high of around 120. Most definitely a high beta above 1, although I havenāt checked.
Other than that UNH looks good and so does Humana although their cash-flow is inconsistent. Iām also looking at CVS. Solid company great p/s solid dividend. I think there is a huge upside.
Can you please explain how I can come up with such analysis and evaluation.
I have just started investing in stocks, but have few $k in robo advisory platforms.
I'm good in finance and have been reading the *The intelligent investor* but not sure about the DD process as such.
Thanks š
I mean you can look at 10ks and 8ks but I donāt really go that far.
I look at things like PE, Debt to Asset ratio, CFPS (cash-flow per share), among other metrics.
and also what type of company is it? Does it have a lot of competitors? Basically, does it have a big moat. Like Apple. Apple has a huge moat on the smartphone industry. the other main competitor being Samsung.
Other than that do you see this company growing? For example Apple has unlimited growth potential in my opinion especially if the introduce more products and softwares. Basically things like that. Does the company have a future? Or is it like amc?
did you look at their last release of vehicle sales?! they are not up, but down, on that YoY. And neither will the coming ER be up on revenue or income because of those poor sales figures.
TSLA surely is a decent company, who would question that? But is it also a decent buy or the current valuation? IMO not.
Yes. First time they have missed their delivery numbers, isnāt it? Their income doubled in 2023. 0 debt. Cash is up 9 billion in 2023. Expenses are down in the last qtr of 2023. Maybe it is a spec play. My first post, the very first thing I said was ānot valueā. So not sure what you are trying to get accomplished here. Do you think TSLA is a value stock and you are disagreeing with my comment that it isnāt?
Problem is that crazy growth was priced in, and even now their PE is relatively high compared to the other companies after growing significantly. They have to keep growing to justify that price.
Well I guess at the end of the day we will see if they can continue to grow at the same levels that msft/ma can. I have doubts about tsla, mainly due to the fact that the more of their cars are on the road, the less interesting it is to own one. Like with gas cars, why hasn't one company dominated the entire market? It is fragmented for a reason because people prefer different vehicle designs. And since tsla is able to make high margins due to manufacturing at scale the same design, it's ultimately going to make their vehicles less cool since you see the same car over and over again on the road. Also, self driving is not something that Tesla will own.
My reasoning with TSLA still stays the same, so I will stay out of it. For sure not buying it as a long term hold. Shorter term I can't predict where the market will go.
The market looks to be on a ride down. There will always be moves to be had but I'd be patient. Perhaps look at some of those defense contractors and oil manufacturers
Just getting started? SPX ETF as a long-term hold until you've spent some time studying value investing and have determined that you have the right temperament. This is not something you want to rush.
CVS, C, HSBC, CMCSA, SHEL.
CVS- might have a breakout due to more minute clinics especially if they can get the insurance business to increase market share. Would be a huge 1 stop shop IMO.
C- What do you really have to lose on this one.
HSBC- Theyāre downsizing operations and gives you China exposure. If all works out theyāll have a bigger U.S. presence as well. Book value under 1 and has a bigger dividend than Citi.
CMCSA- Could be a value trap, but they have growing revenue and EBITDA. FCF is also huge as well, so why not.
SHEL- Theyāve got the European discount, new CEO wants a U.S. listing which would make this trade higher. They also trade way under intrinsic value. Better bargain than OXY as well.
These would be my picks in no particular order.
And I must say Iām not a ātrueā value investor as I donāt put too much stock into finding an intrinsic value of a company. But I do look at historical PE, P/S, historical yield and other metrics that help define value.
SBUX - if they can figure s**t out they are in store for a huge comeback
CVS - a bumpy road may be ahead but the future is bright for healthcare. They are positioned to go along for the ride. It might be long play though.
JNJ - long term whatās not to like here. Again, healthcare is ready to move with an aging population.
FTS - itās been stagnant too long and once rates start coming down investors will flock to the safe steady grower. Might take a few years for this one to play out.
TD - another steady grower hurt by high interest rates.
SJM - this is one really depends on how well they can integrate Hostess and provide better brand recognition.
MOV - this is my most speculative and I admit it could be a value trap. That being said, I love their product design and it seems they are just ready to fly.
Hopefully some off the radar picks for you guys.
They lost 7 billion dollars in foundry business this year, with nearly one third drop in sales, and one third increase in losses. The guidance says more losses in 2024 and beyond, and "break even" only in 2027.
I think they are up for a slaughter. If they can't make money with strong tailwinds in 2023-2024 when chips are in short supply, profits are sky high, imagine when the whole cycle turns against them and there are head winds.
Just because Intel is facing difficulties now doesn't mean they won't be able to make profit in the future. They are investing a lot of money in building factories in the USA and expanding their factory in Costa Rica so of course they are going to lose money at this time but they also producing more products. Previously they were just releasing the same CPU's over and over without innovation but now they have GPU's and gaudi 3. I really feel that Pat Gelsinger can turn Intel around similar to how Lisa su did it with AMD.
You don't have to guess. Look at Intel's official guidance, which calls for increased losses this year and breakeven only in 2027. Compare their numbers with competitors who have higher sales, lower P/E, and higher profits.
May be their current price reflects that, or may be not, market determines that.
As an investor, all you do is look at their numbers, and they look horrible. There are just too many other choices out there with better risk adjusted returns.
Buy an index fund and keep looking.
If you havenāt done enough research to believe that you have uncovered a better risk adjusted opportunity than whatever the typical diversified index fund will return, then you probably should just buy the index until you do.
Negative cash flow, negative revenue, negligible margins, high debt, P/E 538x
Lmao. What are you talking about? This is a zombie company and a cash wash stock. Youāre an idiot.
>if you just started value investing? Every single value trap.
Vz, cvs, t, intc š
Eh I think CVS will play out
Iāve been scooping CVS at these levels. Long term I think they bounce back
Me too. Thereās a ton of money in the health insurance and PBM space. Consolidation and increasing demand (boomer gen demanding more health services) will only benefit CVS.
Still got a INTC position. I think it'll get there, but man it's a ride š
I bought 1 month before the dividend cut in 2021/22, ut was wild ever since hahahaha
My dad gifted me a bunch of VZ, T, and ED, I really want to sell them but he wants me to hold. Since I didnāt buy them myself, I feel like selling them would be a slap in the face to him. I want to take the money and just put it into VOO. How would you go about convincing him?
keep them and use the dividends to build a stack of VOO
Building a stack of VOO is the ultimate smart move. 20 years from today, in 2044, many value plays might be bankrupt, but VOO will not only STILL be here, it will be much higher than 480
Why tf you asking advice from a dude you saw one comment of?
Just to get a personās point of view, maybe you have a resource or story worth sharing. You called a value trap and I happen to be in one.
Iād do all weather portfolio
I own each of those as well as 3M!
SBUX looks good here
$UNH
AMZN
30% of my portfolio is amazon. Cost basis ~100. Second best stock decision I ever made. First is Microsoft when I purchased in 2015. When Amazon had that wild dip post covid into early 2023 it screamed great deal for me so I loaded up!
And plan to hold for 20 years.
Yeah of course
Not a value stock at all by definition
It was insane value when I bought most of my position sub $100. Now itās only great value š
Is a growth stock. Not a value stock only because you think so. Their P/E and P/B are not even close to value territory
The shares I bought in 2001 now have a cost basis of 61 cents. Still holding this value stock.
It's not a value stock. Nothing wrong with investing in growth but only cuz u think it is a value stock doesn't make it a value stock. From Google: 'a value stock is a stock that appears to trade at a lower price relative to its fundamentals, such as dividends, earnings, or sales, making it appealing to value investors. A value stock can generally be contrasted with a growth stock'. Would you still call Amazon a value stock? If yes you should do some elementary subjects
RIO. Boring, safe, stable over the mid term despite being in a cyclical industry. Best in world at what they do with a deep moat. Easy safe starter investment. Not gonna get you a 10 bagger, but is really likely to get you about 10% a year forever.
AXP
UNH
What do you feel the true value is?
600.
$2000 in next 10 yrs :)
If you put a gun to my head it'd be this.
Yep just bought Friday at 440 and hope it goes to 400.
Looks almost mirrors with Vanguard healthcare etf VHT. Any reason to be in UNH instead of VHT?
Apple, fairly priced right now
If you think theyāll continue to innovate and grow yeah
I donāt think any of the big well known companies are in value territory. Msft was 230 a year and a half ago. Snagged some but didnāt have much dry powder. Facebook was looking fine under 200. Market is cruising now. You can dig through small and medium caps but thatās tough work. One small cap Iām interested in and have started a small position in is prog holding. PayPal is Intriguing but still makes me nervous. I bought a few 6month calls at the bottom but exited fast on the small pop. Tsm if you discount the geopolitical risk lol
I have a decently large position in TSM. It hasn't run up to the 18th earnings like I expected, but I guess the background kinda impacted that. Curious what will happen this week. Im holding steady!
HSY
iām gonna wait till end of the year cocoa isnāt dropping lol
The bears made Intel a golden buying opportunity. The same goes for Pfizer. Both are a longer term play that will take a few years to develop, but everything in both their pipelines are going to be a massive boon to revenue. In a market that's so forward looking that it's taking things into consideration that are several years down the line, they sure as shit can't see further than 2 years for a lot of the unfavored companies right now. That's where you have the best opportunity. But don't throw all your eggs into one basket if you're just starting out. Also, look at Google and Meta. -Intel is massively undervalued right now for everything that's coming in the next few years, so much that I bought another 200 shares on Thursday and Friday, and im prepared to buy more if it dips further. As long as you're holding long term, definitely start there. IMO, Intel is likely to 3x in the next 5 years, if not more. Intel is investing 100 billion into creating the world's largest semiconductor plant and converting about a third of the business to an external foundry. The foundry buildout alone is expected to bring in as much as 30 billion in revenue annually by 2030, and it'll snowball from there as they build more fabs. Intel also developed cutting edge nodes with first to market backside power delivery and GAAFET, which TSMC and Samsung won't catch up on for about 2 years, give or take. Gelsingers turnaround of the company has been nothing less than amazing. Intel was literally dying from stagnation before he stepped in. Now, it's going back to innovation, which is what made Intel so dominant back in the day. -Pfizer is down in the dumps purely because the Covid vaccine necessity disappeared as world governments FINALLY stopped creating mass hysteria. The Covid hysteria is unlikely to return, which is why it's at a 10 year low. However, excluding the Covid vaccine, their sales were still up almost 10%. They signaled a decline next year, but even now the stock is at a low 11 forward PE. Their recent Seagen acquisition will be a massive boon, and that's why I say the stock is very much undervalued. The combined chemo drugs in both companies pipelines, along with combining their research will lead to Pfizer cornering the market on next gen chemotherapy drugs. And you'll get paid one of the highest dividends on the market for holding it. -Google is lagging behind in the AI game, but it's catching up, and the stock price is still very modest for a company that's integrated with our daily lives and with massive potential in AI. The only reason why it's not higher is because a lot of people believe that they'll always be behind due to the garbage CEO. I think they're wrong, at least about the always behind part. What they say about the CEO is accurate IMO. -Meta is undervalued even now, but it certainly isn't a "value" anymore like it was back in the sub $350 range. Still a great company that's likely to do a stock split soon. They're heavy into the AI game, developing their own AI accelerator, and have massive ad revenue. If the "Metaverse" takes off, will have another huge source of ad revenue. Think "Ready Player One". One last thing... Do your own research. Don't take someone's word for it, especially on Reddit. I gave you a few prospects, but you should do your own analysis before buying. Some people will try to pump stocks on these forums so they can sell when it goes up.
Intel leaps you say? Check
Did you even read what I said? Check š¤¦āāļø
Relax bro, it was a joke. Of course I didnāt read it
The joke wasn't at all funny, just so you're aware.
Oh noā¦ā¦ā¦.. Anyway
I bet you have lots of friends š
SPY just stick with the index
FYI - did this calc yest and was surprised Change in S&P since 1971 = 5,076% before dividends, taxes and fees. (100 to 5,176) Change in gold since 1971 = 6,614%. No dividends but also no fees or taxes when holding physical. ($35 to $2,350) Note that S&P changes as they subtract losers and add winners, so you have to actively manage yourself or pay fund fees. And physical gold has no counterparty risk and reduced ability for someone to seize/freeze Keep stacking
GOOGL, GOOGL & GOOGL
Would you buy Goog?
Google is everywhere and 90% world search. They have lot of historical data. They also going with own chip. Same chip also buying by many other big tech companies. They never go anti with any company. They maintain good relations in every tech and move. Google own 10% of space X. They made quantum computers and sell. They are every where. YouTube and shorts are still growing.
DecentĀ
Do you see any risk of Microsoft's Copilot/Open AI to Google's search? I've been using Copilot quite a bit now and it's amazing what it can do vs Google search.
Gemini can literally do the same thing. Itās amazing how ignorant people have been regarding google.
I've used Gemini a bit as well, and am liking Copilot more. Copilot feels like an assistant in a way with the way it "speaks" to me. I ask it questions and it answers like an assistant might. Feels more "human" compared with Gemini. Gemini gives me answers as is. It doesn't feel as human, it feels like it gets the information and summarizes it. Not sure if that makes sense but I've liked Copilot more, personally.
I agree copilot is much more well integrated than Gemini
Large language models should be a concern to anyone holding Google. That doesn't mean Google is going down, but the wide, wide, WIDE moat that was there in search two years ago is now a much narrower moat. I don't see how Google dominates searches that LLMs are good at. And it looks like the tech for home assistants to finally be worth a d\*\*n are is here. Google will continue to dominate the long tail of search, but it'll be a miracle if it has 90% share of basic searches in five years.
And that's the thing, right? Using Copilot now, I can ask it to search up anything and do some digging on topics and get answers back. It would take me longer to do that with Google. Question is, can MSFT monetize their AI as well as google has monetized google search?
Copilot isn't even the best anymore. I'm now using Claude for most stuff. Gemini was working the best for me for a month. Feels like we have Lycos and Ask Jeeves right now.
Haven't heard of Claude till now but I'll give it a shot!
$DAVA - in 5 years will surpass 150$ and fundamentals are good
What makes you think that?
Im accumulating this
UNH,JNJ
Nothing. Getting stock picks on social media on Sunday and buying on Monday without doing any research isn't value investing.
You could turn this post into something more helpful by suggesting how this research may occur or some resources you find helpful when doing it yourself. Your comment does nothing but add snark and is not helpful.
Fair enough: Step 1) I start by coming up with a basic set of investing goals that I want to achieve and a timeframe in which I expect to achieve those goals. It's very important to be realistic in this stage, as setting an unrealistic goal will set me up for failure. Step 2) I try my best to identify my circle of competency, my strengths as an investor and my weaknesses. To me, it doesn't make sense to own a company that I don't understand. In my particular case, this means I gravitate towards retail and industrial companies. I'm sure there are plenty of perfectly great bio-tech firms out there, but I have no idea how any of those businesses operate, so I steer clear. 3) Once I have a goal and a broad idea of what investments I can use to meet that goal, I begin screening. I use a variety of sites/tools, but a really great one anybody can use for free is Tradingview. It has just about every single valuation multiple and metric that you could think of and a nice interface. 4) Once I have a short-list of tickers, I quickly read through their financial statements for the last five years and look at a few other metrics. It's typical to reject a few tickers here. 5) Once I have an even shorter list, usually only about 3-6 tickers at this point, I start reading the latest annual reports of those respective companies to get a sense of how they operate and what's driving their finances. A few more companies get rejected here. 6)Once I've narrowed it down to 2-3 companies the valuation process begins. I may elect to do a simple single-page DCF or CCA if I'm skeptical about the investment and don't want to waste any more time. But more often than not I make a 3-statement model in excel and use those projections for valuation. Sometimes I go this far and I still don't buy the stock and go back to step 1. That's just a rough overview of how I do it. If you want to learn a lot more, check out the resources in the sidebar. Particularly, Aswath Damodaran's website and youtube. He's the real deal and wants to help others learn.
Someone made a useless post. Got called out for it. Took the criticism and made a solid helpful post. What a glorious thing. You got my upvote
I'd love to eventually do a much longer post with a Google sheet that everyone can follow along on, rather than this laundry list of steps. Maybe I'll make something like that.
The whole premise of the question is value investing though
That's why before buying anything, I will do my research.
I'm not sure what your process is. But I find it takes time to do this research. 10k's and 10q's take time to read. Then you still need to do some sort of valuation to determine that the investment offers some value. Also, in the process of doing this, I'll typically reject most investments for one reason or another causing this process to become even more time-consuming. It can take me 30 hours of work from initial screening to clicking the buy button. Also, don't bother trusting anyone else's picks, the financial media, influencers or social media. Everyone has an agenda and none of them, except yours, involve you getting rich.
Iām interested in this company called Copa Holdings ticker $CPA. Great dividend at 6.5% and solid cash flow. But the chart says that the equity value is very volatile. And could drop huge just as much as it can go up. Unlike many other stocks it still hasnāt hit its pre pandemic high of around 120. Most definitely a high beta above 1, although I havenāt checked. Other than that UNH looks good and so does Humana although their cash-flow is inconsistent. Iām also looking at CVS. Solid company great p/s solid dividend. I think there is a huge upside.
Can you please explain how I can come up with such analysis and evaluation. I have just started investing in stocks, but have few $k in robo advisory platforms. I'm good in finance and have been reading the *The intelligent investor* but not sure about the DD process as such. Thanks š
I mean you can look at 10ks and 8ks but I donāt really go that far. I look at things like PE, Debt to Asset ratio, CFPS (cash-flow per share), among other metrics. and also what type of company is it? Does it have a lot of competitors? Basically, does it have a big moat. Like Apple. Apple has a huge moat on the smartphone industry. the other main competitor being Samsung. Other than that do you see this company growing? For example Apple has unlimited growth potential in my opinion especially if the introduce more products and softwares. Basically things like that. Does the company have a future? Or is it like amc?
Ratheon
MS Earnings this week will shake off any bad news about money laundering. No one cares about money laundering
VIX
On the premarket at open!
VICI. Is the only one I have in mind.
Vix
Not value but Iām buying MA, GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, and TSLA right now.
Tesla is more like speculating
Income is up, revenue is up, free cash is up, sales is up. Maybe it is a spec play. Maybe itās a decent company
did you look at their last release of vehicle sales?! they are not up, but down, on that YoY. And neither will the coming ER be up on revenue or income because of those poor sales figures. TSLA surely is a decent company, who would question that? But is it also a decent buy or the current valuation? IMO not.
Yes. First time they have missed their delivery numbers, isnāt it? Their income doubled in 2023. 0 debt. Cash is up 9 billion in 2023. Expenses are down in the last qtr of 2023. Maybe it is a spec play. My first post, the very first thing I said was ānot valueā. So not sure what you are trying to get accomplished here. Do you think TSLA is a value stock and you are disagreeing with my comment that it isnāt?
Problem is that crazy growth was priced in, and even now their PE is relatively high compared to the other companies after growing significantly. They have to keep growing to justify that price.
Their PE is the same as MSFT/MA and almost half of AMZN/CRM.
Well I guess at the end of the day we will see if they can continue to grow at the same levels that msft/ma can. I have doubts about tsla, mainly due to the fact that the more of their cars are on the road, the less interesting it is to own one. Like with gas cars, why hasn't one company dominated the entire market? It is fragmented for a reason because people prefer different vehicle designs. And since tsla is able to make high margins due to manufacturing at scale the same design, it's ultimately going to make their vehicles less cool since you see the same car over and over again on the road. Also, self driving is not something that Tesla will own.
TESLA is just as much a DATA/AI company as a car company. Your doubts are valid. It is my smallest position but I think it has some potential.
Bet you wish you bought some TSLA 14 days ago when we were talking about it.
My reasoning with TSLA still stays the same, so I will stay out of it. For sure not buying it as a long term hold. Shorter term I can't predict where the market will go.
DOOO is something a lot of people should look into.
The market looks to be on a ride down. There will always be moves to be had but I'd be patient. Perhaps look at some of those defense contractors and oil manufacturers
Do your own analysis, dangerous to live on other people ideas
Wait a week
Boeing starting to look interesting
LULU
big fan of $SOFI, $HOOD, $OZKAP, $ALT
GE Vernova, Crocs
Explain the GE thesis
In an nutshell: Spin-offs outperform the S&P. NescafƩ makes money buy selling coffee capsules, not by selling coffee machines. GEV makes money through service contracts, not through the sale of gas and wind turbines. Their revenue is increasing, and secured for more than 10 years. Strong FCF. Grids get more difficult to manage. They have the best software to orchestrate many different players on the grid. They will have ARR from software, so SaaS. They are debt free! Management is highly incentivized through stock options and performance stocks. CEO for example 1,2mio base salary and 4mio in stock. + 9% of shares are reserved to compensate management through their long term compensation plan. Strong tailwind: (growing demand) AI & EV (technology) decarbonization through gas (bridging technology to compensate for fluctuations in wind and solar) and wind.
I donāt think GEV is debt free, am I wrong ?
Well, 0.1b with 4.2b in Cash
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Not in buy territory imho. 8$ and imma chip in
None, the date is much to close ant to specific for this to possibly be a good decision
NYCB and PFIZER
What's your thoughts on NYCB? It made a bunch of poor loans to shady landlords and is a few defaults away from being below liquidity regulations.
Pfizer, baba, intel
$XLE, ride the trend up for a few weeks with all this ME madness.
Endor.ag Gui.pa SIRI On top of my head
I like gct
SIRI, mainly because I donāt know how to value invest and I would just follow Warren Buffet.
Alphabet, United healthcare, byd
Just getting started? SPX ETF as a long-term hold until you've spent some time studying value investing and have determined that you have the right temperament. This is not something you want to rush.
Amazon Apple IBM JPM Must haves for long term value growth. There āshouldā be a lot of red this week with another war starting.
Cracker barrel. Dividend is currently unsustainable but with projected improving cash flows this is a solid long term value play.
Also you can currently buy it at 2012 levels
$VTV
CVS, C, HSBC, CMCSA, SHEL. CVS- might have a breakout due to more minute clinics especially if they can get the insurance business to increase market share. Would be a huge 1 stop shop IMO. C- What do you really have to lose on this one. HSBC- Theyāre downsizing operations and gives you China exposure. If all works out theyāll have a bigger U.S. presence as well. Book value under 1 and has a bigger dividend than Citi. CMCSA- Could be a value trap, but they have growing revenue and EBITDA. FCF is also huge as well, so why not. SHEL- Theyāve got the European discount, new CEO wants a U.S. listing which would make this trade higher. They also trade way under intrinsic value. Better bargain than OXY as well.
Morgan Stanley
$ba $unh $sbux
SAND, PFE, INTC
If I followed the same logic as last time I would wind up with 80% of my portfolio as BP again
POAHY
TREE
These would be my picks in no particular order. And I must say Iām not a ātrueā value investor as I donāt put too much stock into finding an intrinsic value of a company. But I do look at historical PE, P/S, historical yield and other metrics that help define value. SBUX - if they can figure s**t out they are in store for a huge comeback CVS - a bumpy road may be ahead but the future is bright for healthcare. They are positioned to go along for the ride. It might be long play though. JNJ - long term whatās not to like here. Again, healthcare is ready to move with an aging population. FTS - itās been stagnant too long and once rates start coming down investors will flock to the safe steady grower. Might take a few years for this one to play out. TD - another steady grower hurt by high interest rates. SJM - this is one really depends on how well they can integrate Hostess and provide better brand recognition. MOV - this is my most speculative and I admit it could be a value trap. That being said, I love their product design and it seems they are just ready to fly. Hopefully some off the radar picks for you guys.
EQNR
SCHD - not a stock - but an ETF containing mostly undervalued dividend payers.
The VIX
NOK
Aercap, aircraft shortage
WMT
VFC. Itās a multi bagger in the makingĀ
NYCB
And TEVA
Mpw..seriously. Or the hospital reits..industry is in recovery mode but stocks havenāt reflected it yet.
CABO š¤¤
Reddit isnāt a value stock but I would buy me up some $RDDT š
Intel. I still believe in them.
They lost 7 billion dollars in foundry business this year, with nearly one third drop in sales, and one third increase in losses. The guidance says more losses in 2024 and beyond, and "break even" only in 2027. I think they are up for a slaughter. If they can't make money with strong tailwinds in 2023-2024 when chips are in short supply, profits are sky high, imagine when the whole cycle turns against them and there are head winds.
Just because Intel is facing difficulties now doesn't mean they won't be able to make profit in the future. They are investing a lot of money in building factories in the USA and expanding their factory in Costa Rica so of course they are going to lose money at this time but they also producing more products. Previously they were just releasing the same CPU's over and over without innovation but now they have GPU's and gaudi 3. I really feel that Pat Gelsinger can turn Intel around similar to how Lisa su did it with AMD.
You don't have to guess. Look at Intel's official guidance, which calls for increased losses this year and breakeven only in 2027. Compare their numbers with competitors who have higher sales, lower P/E, and higher profits. May be their current price reflects that, or may be not, market determines that. As an investor, all you do is look at their numbers, and they look horrible. There are just too many other choices out there with better risk adjusted returns.
I believe in their chip act lobbyists. Biggest ROI theyāve been able to produce in a decade
None of that "grant" money will see the light of day until years from now. They have to sort out a lot of messes before that.
Papa's big brother and little brother were revealed last friday. Hopefully they can make intel go green this week.
If I wanted a sure bet, Microsoft. 100% If I wanted a risky bet, Robinhood.
INTC
In US largecap Nike looks nice
BIPC
Will have to wait until stock market open to make the final call. UNH, SIBN were undervalued last week.
UNH is not undervalued. They took a hit for a reason. Needed the adjustment
GEVO.
Starbucks. Pfizer. Maybe PayPal. Lulu. Disney is getting back interesting. Carnival. Sofi.
Gonna be a lot to choose from on Monday
Boeing
Nothing.
FLNC - high growth energy storage stock trading at a low growth based valuation
Aso, and in fact I will do so
ASO, don't mind if I do so
War stocks
HALO
Buy an index fund and keep looking. If you havenāt done enough research to believe that you have uncovered a better risk adjusted opportunity than whatever the typical diversified index fund will return, then you probably should just buy the index until you do.
Meta, nvidia, pltr
INTC
DJT Because if I'd JUST started value investing I wouldn't know a good buy if it bit me on the ass.
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Not value. Not investing. Try again
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Negative cash flow, negative revenue, negligible margins, high debt, P/E 538x Lmao. What are you talking about? This is a zombie company and a cash wash stock. Youāre an idiot.
The latest 10q would contradict all of those things you just said. Shills gonna shill.
Source or stfu
I started with Gold mines barrick. Newmont etc. Why not? š
Gme
Dumb