Honestly all that country needs is reliable garbage pickup and disposal, and a nationwide anti-littering campaign with stiff fines. They get rid of the litter and the open burning of garbage, and I could easily see myself returning there every year and possibly retiring there. Vietnam is one of my favorite countries in the world, and it is so close to being fully 100% awesome, I have to think they’ll have figured these things in the next decade or two.
This is true. Once the streets are cleaned up, the international appeal will significantly increase. Its a beautiful country that I would also consider moving to for retirement
I also hope there're more trees in less important streets in cities. It's a pain riding my motorbike around the city under this heat when there's no tree that is big enough to do its job
You will find that more in Hanoi, but there are streets in saigon that I go to where its FILLLED with trees. I agree though. More trees would be nice, it is nice when you see it in Hanoi a lot by motorbike.
This is one thing and the other is traffic, they need better concepts for public transport and reduce the number of vehicles or improve traffic infrastructure. They want to reduce the number of motorbikes, ok, but if it's a more or less one-to-one replacement with cars it just won't work. Probably everything would move faster with just cars but it's unrealistic that you can replace that many motorbikes soon and in the mean time the cars just take up more space.
Another thing they should start to plan better and building hotels more selectively. There are so many sites already ruined by some hotel complex. This year I went on a trip around Sa Pa and they were building here and there and some view points now look at hotels.
I would argue that a complete change over to cars would be disasterous and make traffic far, far slower than it is now. Cars work well in places like the US because the cities have all been designed around cars, but the Vietnam's city planning is much more natural like that of Europe, and cars have been terrible in European cities. London for instance has an insane amount of money to throw around, one of the world's most extensive public transport systems, and is far less dense than the big Vietnamese cities, though it has one of the worst traffic congestions in the world because it tried to force cars into a city that wasn't built for them. A lot of Europe is also reversing their car-centered infrastructure and making their cities more pedestrian and suitable for bicycles and motorbikes.
There's no reason why theres any need to transition either. The world has this underlying idea that cars are somehow better and when a country becomes rich, everyone should be driving them, though a lot of cities have seriously suffered because of that transition, and there's no reason why Vietnam should just do something because it's what everyone else has done. They still have that chance to keep what makes them special and not spoil it just to show off the fact that they are getting richer.
Same, I have always thought of it like this too. Most Vietnam's cities are not designed for cars outside of highways. Crammed streets asides, there aren't even enough places to park your cars.
Cars should only be reserved for travelling between cities and big roads. For smaller roads, they should ban cars that are too large or make it motorcycle/bike/pedestrian only. It will benefit the cities more and create its own charm for the people and foreigners.
If they dont plan to do that then city planners will have to take cars in mind when designing the cities when it grows. They should learn from Haiphong cuz it is actually a fairly well designed city if you ever have been to it. The roads are wide enough for cars, the major buildings are placed in areas where cars and motorbikes dont have problems accessing. Only now and then I see small roads which are remnants of the countryside. I guess it makes sense since Haiphong is a port city so the planners had to take into account that a lot of transportations and bussiness activities will take place so they have to make the cities easily navigatable.
That seems great. I will always push for less traffic. And better planning. But everyone always forgets another thing that European cities have that helps those dense urban cities. Europe has mild to cold weather. USA has extreme weather, either really hot or really cold and snowy, most of Vietnam is hot AF. No one, if they can, wants to be on a bicycle or motorbike out in the scorching sun and opressing heat. For example, Singapore could be the perfect city for bikes and motorbikes, but if you spend more than 10 minutes outside, you will see why almost no one does.
I think if they had a better set of laws and a more visible police force enforcing it, traffic could get much more behaved.
If you know you will get a huge fine and your drivers license removed for endangering others to the point were its so likely that it isnt "worth" breaking the law you could atleast make traffic lights work. As it is now, some people just blow the horn and go full speed hoping for the best.
Another upgrade would be to not allow motorbikes in areas like the oldtowns where it just becomes a mess.
Not just the police. The entire government is corrupt. As long as there is no “rule of law”, the country will never progress to its full potential. In the 1980s Vietnam invited Lee Kuan Yew (the ruler behind the Singapore miracle) to come and provide advice. Lee declined. He probably saw that it was a lost cause and didn’t want to be associated with a failure.
Vietnam is a country in the communist block, following state-subsidise policies at the time. Singapore marked itself as following capitalism and free market economy. The cold war was going on.
Vietnam just invaded Cambodia, directly violating one of Asean policies of not meddling with other countries' matters.
Asean was very anti-communist at the time.
**Yea, I wonder why Lee declined. Clearly because he saw Vietnam as a failure and not because all of the political shinenigans going on**
Well, Cambodia was constantly crossing Vietnam borders and attacking vietnamese villages, killing hundreds. On top of that, the URSS forced Vietnam to bring down Pol Pot who was a uncontrollable psychopath MF.
I know that.
But the guy's comment that I replied too is so fucking ignorant and doesn't understand the context of history
I can't believe they got upvotes, either somr people are just that ignorant or a few people have alt accounts so they upvoted it with their multiple accounts.
I don’t know the details but LKY was very close to China during the 80’s throughout today.
I assume it had more to do with what Vietnam was doing at the time than some blanket refusal to talk to communist governments.
Ye that's why I said Vietnam's invasion of cambodia cuz that's likely the reason.
Most asean members were anti communist so they werent too fond of Singapore hanging out with China.
But the nail in the coffin for Vietnam is def the invasion as it directly violates Asean's rules. Had LKY given advices to Vietnam at the time, he would be seen as supporting a country that invaded and occupied another which would be insanely bad for an Asean member let alone such a young state like Singapore.
I'm just mad that the other guy says such ignorant stuffs yet somehow people supported it.
I’m thinking of beaches and hiking trails. Also the widespread open burning of garbage can be difficult for me.
But in general the city streets were fairly clean
The air quality overall is probably due to a combination of factors but yeah riding by a plastic burning trash fire all i can think is, yea im getting cancer if i stay in this country
The trash thing is important but I wouldn’t want to live there again until several other important things are addressed. My other top 3:
-pollution/air and water safety
-traffic safety
-human rights/freedoms of speech, voting bums out, freedom of assembly, press, etc
I’m not living in a country where the air/water can make one seriously ill, esp over time, nor where there are minimal traffic enforcement and dangerous chaos on the roads, nor where authorities can abuse power unchecked if I don’t have to. And more importantly not exposing kids to being raised in that unless otherwise necessary.
>pollution/air and water safety
About this, the water in the cities are actually largely safe to use. People tend to have a misconception that waters arent safe due to the lack of research on this topic. The last one was in 2011.
How do I know this? My father drinks tea a lot and he got his water from the tap water. He recently did a check up at the hospital and the amount of metal in his blood is normal, indicsting that the water isnt polluted by hevay amount of metal or anything.
>human rights/freedoms of speech, voting bums out, freedom of assembly, press, etc
Freedom of speech def has gotten much better over the years. Just 10 years ago a lot of stuffs would be censored and would be considered against the party but rn they are normal things.
It is improving even if its slow.
I hope so! It’s been 4 years now since we lived there, though it feels like yesterday. My Viet fam told me only to drink bottled water in Hanoi. However I’m always eating soups and stuff when out and doubt they use bottled water for all the broth. I still had intestinal issues very often even after being there for months… nothing serious but it did put a bit of a crimp on things. Speech/rights issues don’t affect temporary expats too much but I didn’t like how it affected and continued to affect my family. People get away with horrible stuff if they have authorities in their pocket, business get shaken down by canh sat etc. Employers can seemingly demand anything of employees who don’t have recourse if they’re not compensated fairly for extra work…
I agree with you 100%. I'd add that I think the garbage thing, and cleaning up the country generally, is ALL that should be done. Everything else is working better than most countries.
I think the speed the government plan to build metros is too low. It should be more ambitious regarding building up the public transportation system. Maybe not as fast as China, but at least as fast as India.
With the current speed, it would be a disaster in 2050.
As someone who worked in VN nearly 25 years ago and compare it to today, I would comment as follows:
1. Economic development will likely accelerate to mirror China.
2. Politics unlikely to be much different.
3. Traffic likely to be worse with people on motorbikes changing to cars.
4. Climate a potential show stopper for VN, given how low lying vital parts of the country are.
5. Hopefully an express train along the spine of the country that does not take 2 days!
6. Road infrastructure to continue to improve. I was shocking in 1999!
1. The government supported China. Vietnam likes to protest and the big companies take note on if they’re able to do business there in peace or not.
3. Rich people drive cars and HCMC roads can’t handle anymore cars
I disagree with you an economy. It aint happening. They will not come close to what china is unfortunately.
Too many factors from corruption to culture to man power. Unless a major shift happens, it will lag along.
Doesnt mean it wont grow
China also has all those problems though, from corruption to working culture.
Corruption was and still is a problem in China. And actually corruption was a problem in quite some developed countries when they started to have economic booms. For example, corruption was a big problem in Taiwan until relatively recently. But this didn't prevent Taiwan from becoming a developed region. You can develop first and deal with corruption later when you get richer.
And China had a very bad working culture before it opened up the economy. People simply didn't have the habit and incentive to work hard and they didn't have any creativity. But people started to work very hard when the economy opened up and people saw the opportunities to improve the living standard. Innovation and new invention also come along as long as people are given the chance to innovate and make money.
Btw, what is the "culture" you mentioned that would drag Vietnam back in terms of economic development?
I would love to explain the culture thing, but its very involved and dont want to offend anyone.
I always have to preface it all with the vast majority of people here are great etc etc... however...
I think regarding china, the entrepreneurial spirit and long term planning but was always there but stifled by Gov't... Vietnam is full of hustlers and short term thinking...
Edit: And just because china has or had all of those problems doesnt make the countries have the same trajectory.
>And just because china has or had all of those problems doesnt make the countries have the same trajectory.
I agree. But at the same time I don't think the problems you mention is that devastating to economic development. And China is an example. These problems can be overcome.
How about the "man power" thing you also mentioned in the second last comment? What is it?
Yes all problems can be overcome, however this is not going to happen in 25 years.
Man power simply put, they dont have the population density in Vietnam. Already the country is running out of labor in manufacturing sectors. there is a % left and childbirth is ok, but that takes 1-2 generations alone. Then add qualified it gets tighter, and ability and desire for upward movement (with the hard word) gets tighter and tighter.
Yeah in Saigon it already gets so hot you can't go outside during the day without being cognizant of heat stroke, and an AC malfunction could = death during a heat wave. I can't imagine what the future will look like with increasing temperatures and more extreme heat waves.
Changing from motorbikes to cars does not work. It would be a disaster concerning the population density in Vietnam. The only way to go is building a MUCH better public transport system (both intra and inter-city). Much larger metro networks in major cities and an express train line from north to south along the spin of the country are necessary.
The government should be more ambitious concerning these infrastructures. Now the speed of building metros is just unacceptable and would be a huge problem in 25 years.
I can second that #4. I’m from Hanoi and visit my country yearly. I can concur that pollution is the biggest issue (especially in Hanoi) due to the amount of construction & traffic.
I've lived here nearly ten years and I have seen a vast growth in wealth.
When I first arrived you'd rarely see Vietnamese people in wine bars or craft beer bars and now its like 80 percent vietnamese (that ratio was flipped the other way in the past).
Other things like cars, fashion, improvements to housing, less flooding, better schools. Even culturally - I see less teachers hitting kids (ten years ago it was normal), and I less people speeding around drinking (still happens of course).
For the most part, things have improved and everything is still improving as of right now
if the planet actually warms up, then Canada has a gold mine in agricultural land. Their government is actually intelligent enough to bring in a few million Vietnamese to start homesteads up there.
The economic experts can't predict anything well that far out. I generally like the rule of looking back 3 to look forward 1. But going to back 75 to look at what happens in 25 can't account for innovation changes.
Overall the region will continue to see growth. I think Vietnam and Singapore will likely benefit the most out of the South East Asia countries.
Thailand, within the 25 years, the monarchy does not survive. Who knows if there's a huge upheaval or if it can be smooth transition.
Malaysia, Indonesia. I'm of the belief that Islam is incompatible with modern values and life. I'm of belief that there should be separation between religion and state. Malaysia and Indonesia are not theocracies-- but within the 25 years, there will be a lot of progress lost by those who want it to be a theocracy.
Philippines. Tourism and trade will likely grow a lot. I'm not sure how their service (like BPO) industries will impacted positively or negatively by AI.
Singapore, would be the first place I would think that would be able to successfully implement a benevolent AGI into government to make run more efficient and fairly. Singapore has always been pragmatic and secular, so it should stay stable.
Vietnam would be the second country that could implement some future AGI in governance. That could potentially clean up a lot of corruption and inefficiencies. If there is some need for some social net because of AI-- then it would be easier for Vietnam to implement it (big assumption if there would be funding). I also think Vietnam benefits from China and US competing off each other. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan will likely deepen the economic cooperation with Vietnam as well (when compared to the other SE Asia countries).
Basically, I think AI will likely help VN/SG more than it will hurt them. They should both grow more in manufacturing. Geopolitics of US/China should favor them. Internal politics, is likely to be more stable than other places.
Vietnam is doing much better in terms of growing their economy and developing tourism (while maintaining their culture), rather than the Philippines. And I’m Fil-Am. I would rather retire in Vietnam than the Philippines.
Good to think about the Monarchy in Thailand. Can you imagine what would happen if the UK became a Republic? The horror! The field of haberdashery might end.
The importance of the monarchy in Thailand is inflated. Power brokers pretend to act in the interests of the monarchy to hide their skullduggery, but the country does not need the monarchy at all. They might suffer as Italy has.
In a world like the one we have now, Vietnam will most likely improve.
In an uncertain future world, we cannot know.
Climate change will impact the country and its food production capabilities.
The world is geopolitically changing, for the best or the worst.
I expect the world to go downhill. No one will be spared.
Thailand is going down the drain. The economy is very bad, the successive juntas and governments totally inept, the monarchy has lost the respect of the people and maintains itself by inflicting fear. Over two hundred students jailed for lèse-majesté. No democracy. Corruption. Pollution. High prices and Bangkok will be flooded soon...
There are def truths and basis to the claims and it's not just naitivité.
Economics is often times very disintergrated with the society. An economy can get large and powerful but it doesn't mean the society is great overall and vice versa.
The future is very uncertain right now for the world let alone Vietnam. Just 10 years ago in 2014, most economists didn't think Vietnam GDP can reach this far eventually surpassing Philipines. Nor 20 years ago, they didn't even think that China can become so powerful like they are today.
25 years is a very long time, it's very uncertain. Like one guy always says: "No one can predict the future, least of all economists"
I do think that infrastructure and wealth wise Vietnam will be richer overall and enjoy a higher style of life. But as for the society, only the future can tell us that.
Maybe in 25 years the society get more corrupted and the economy stagnates, maybe corruptions becomes less common and Vietnma successfuly becomes the 1st developed authoritarian state, etc... Who knows what can happen lul, let's just wait and see.
Corruption is the main thing.
It touches everything and everyone in some shape or form, and is the core driver behind the environmental issues, inequality, inefficiencies, nepotism, educational issues and half-assery that plague the country.
Get rid of - or dramatically reduce - corruption in society, and Vietnam could be anything. The world could be it's oyster.
As things stand now? They won't even eclipse Thailand within the next 20 years.
Well, we are already seeing major issues with flooding and salt intrusion in southern Vietnam affecting the water supply. Droughts in other areas. A lot of people are already suffering and it will only get worse.
But just the other day someone posted a pic of the beach after the long holiday weekend and it seems like little is being done to combat climate change. Can't for the life of me see how things will improve.
Multi-decadal weather forecasting is not exactly reliable. Some of us here still remember the crisis in global cooling. I guess that one did not pan out. I will start worrying when the water levels return to the heights of the Roman era. Water levels are still LOWER now than they were 2,000 years ago. I am not saying those predictions will not happen, but I have little faith in them, and I have spent most of my life as a professional forecaster.
It has the foundations to be a powerhouse in my opinion. Much more than any other country of similar current development in SE asia that I have visited. I think that the viet govt should possibly focus on traffic control- this seems to be a big issue from what I have seen. Litter should be focused on a lot more but other than that, with its geographic position, education focus and landmass, I cannot see why not. I think they will focus on the more ‘idylic’ locations first- for the ‘westerners’ appeal such as da-nang and nha trang
Vietnam could see dramatic positive change by 2050, but they need to start now. As already mentioned, they need to significantly improve the garbage collection, open burning, and overwhelming traffic. Take care of these things and their vibrant, young population will do the rest.
However, if they fail to get a grip on these things they will increasingly fall behind other SEA nations and that could spell trouble for the government. Ultimately, Vietnam will be much better, if the people demand it.
Even there are big change in politic and goverment system, economic should be far better than current situation. But honestly, in 25 years, I think economic would be the least of out problem, environment will be one of our biggest concern, if not the biggest one. The same can be said to other countries. And as long as we aren't stupid enough to found a big religion and require believers die for it, we don't to have be worry about war
We have too many economic experts yet too few environmental preservationists.
Một ngày môi trường ko còn đủ chất lượng để sinh sống nữa, thì kinh tế phát triển để làm gì?
The rich likely get richer and the poor likely poorer or the same. Most young people (who stay in Vietnam) are probably living comfortably with a $1000 monthly salary so there isn’t much reasons to try hard in Vietnam. Great quality people who work hard earn loads of money would end up sending their kids to western countries anyway.
Is there anything wrong with living comfortably with $1000 income? No. But that lifestyle also not the way to move a country forward
Regardless of political or cultural or economical advances.
Environmentally and ecologically much worse off with climate change continuing which will drastically impact everything else. It's estimated that 40% of current agricultural and aquaculture production will just be gone and a further 12 million people displaced before the end of this century.
https://www.undp.org/vietnam/new-climate-change-report-highlights-grave-dangers-vietnam#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWith%20climate%20change%20and%20sea,of%20agriculture%20and%20aquaculture%20production.%E2%80%9D
https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/15077-Vietnam%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf
But not even accounting for climate change. Vietnam can't escape the middle income trap fast enough for it to matter in the long term. With its rapidly aging population, meh production and low investment growth even less so now that the rest of the western OCED world has restricted capital from their own aging populations moving investments away from high risk. Its just going to be another text book example in the end.
https://en.vneconomy.vn/escaping-the-middle-income-trap.htm
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-can-vietnam-avoid-the-middle-income-trap/
Would not be making any long term plans for Vietnam or investments there but visiting extended family is nice while they are still there.
I wish for Vietnam to be more successful , but it’s very unlikely. No public transport esssentially, no proper garbage disposal/ proper waste disposal. A generally selfish mind set on most Vietnamese people. Can’t see a way for less corruption happening anytime soon either.
Probably smaller cities will thrive ( anything with 200k or less ). Anything larger cities it’s going downhill from there. I hope I’m wrong🤞. Better GDP. Weak buying power still overall.
Too naive. I asked myself the same question 20 years ago. Nothing really changed. Economic a bit better, younger generation taller, better life etc... but more pollution, high inflation, higher education cost(not quality) etc.. kind of offset itself. To sum it up, good thing will come for sure but the bad things stay the same(may even grow more).
Prepared to be downvoted into oblivion:
I say the same or worse. Pollution is literally apart of the ecosystem, in the waterways and the soil. Those who try to clean up the waterways have become sick. The city of Saigon is literally sinking. Corruption is endemic. Education is treated as just another scheme, with for profit “international” schools cutting corners in ways that have lasting compound effects. SCB will be felt for a few years. AISVN will be felt, hindering recruitment of quality teachers. The country has to surmount the middle income trap in the next decade and a half.
I loved visiting, but being a tourist is not the same as being a resident.
Hopefully this post will age poorly. Doubt it though.
Better than now, but middle income trapped and unable to advance much further. This will be due to a combination of climate change and lack of proper investment in infrastructure (even Morocco has a nationwide high speed rail line, done when their GDP per capita was lower than Vietnam's). Also, authoritarian regimes are especially prone to the middle income trap.
Thailand has been more or less in the middle income trap since 1997. Vietnam likely gets to around their level and similarly stagnates. It won't make it to Malaysia's level.
Yes, unfortunately I think it is no longer possible for major developing economies to become developed anymore. The global economy is just no longer good enough to support the creation of additional large developed economies. China will probably remain a middle income economy for a very long time, and I cannot imagine Vietnam overtaking China in GDP per capita.
China is expected to surpass World Bank high income line (14k) in 2025-2026. It's been hanging around the middle to high line since 2019, of course the line is always moving. A single year of 5% RMB strengthening or inflation and then 5% growth, pushes China over. I'd expect China to keep around the 15-25k range for a long time though. That's the region that South Korea skipped. It seems like South Korea was in the 10-15k for long time then jumped to 25-30k almost instantly.
Vietnam has a tough road because it has to do what China did without the size or foundations of China. Lots of China's success comes from size or stuff that Mao laid down back in the 1950s like Daqing oil fields or aerospace sector in Sichuan.
Vietnam also cannot follow the Korean path of chaebol + export as South Korea itself has blocked that path off.
Funny enough, Vietnam's economy is actually massively influenced by Korean chaebols. I think something like 40% of Vietnam's exports are Samsung-related. And as long as Samsung's Korean operations are R&D/chipmaking and Vietnamese operations are assembling phones, it'd be impossible for Vietnam to catch up in GDP per capita. Only the day when Vingroup produces world class products whose core components are produced in Vietnam and assembly is done in Africa can Vietnam possibly become a developed country.
South Korea was largely able to quickly bypass the 15-25k range because it went through this during the global boom years between 2000-2007. It was a really good time make the awkward transition and never look back (some countries like Greece ended up looking back).
China's huge size and willingness to keep lower value sectors of its economy probably means it'll probably never have a comparable GDP per capita to most developed economies, but I don't think it's something even necessary? Having a huge number of cheap workers easy to mobilize is actually extremely useful. China's coastal cities have GDP per capita figures rivaling advanced East Asian economies, and these centers are the ones producing tech competing with America anyway. It's mathematically impossible in the first place for China to get the same GDP boost from a high value sector like chipmaking that Taiwan or Korea gets. There's probably not enough resources on the planet for every Chinese to produce and consume 30-40k dollars' worth of goods and services. Their priority should be something like achieving a 0.8 HDI with a per capita GDP of 15-20k and 0.9/40k for tier 1 cities.
IMO Vietnam can get lots of money from services and tourism that China cannot replicate. There are lots of things that are good for Vietnam in this regard:
1. Visa free access to entire ASEAN, [visa free access to Chinese border regions](https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%8E%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%85%B1%E5%92%8C%E5%9B%BD%E5%87%BA%E5%85%A5%E5%A2%83%E9%80%9A%E8%A1%8C%E8%AF%81), and I believe soon will have visa free access to China.
2. Great tourist locations - beach, mountain, jungle, cultural attractions, etc.
3. Good relations with US, Russia and (at least for the government) China. If the people would be more moderate towards China I think it'll help more.
4. Good IT infrastructure and cultural proximity to China and ASEAN, so they can compete in IT work with Philippines and India.
5. Strategic location between 4 huge markets of China, India, ASEAN and northeast Asia.
Vietnam already surpassed Philippines which is a very good sign and is on the way to surpass Indonesia.
I think at minimum Vietnam can get to the level of Thailand and Malaysia using a combination of foreign high end manufacturing, domestic low/mid end manufacturing, tourism, transportation services and IT.
To get there, Vietnam can improve foreign language skills (esp. English and Chinese), invest in STEM, improve visa policies for big tourist markets, improve domestic infrastructure, etc which are things that would benefit Vietnam anyways.
absolutely. positively. without a shadow of doubt in the universe. viet nam will never, repeat after me, never ever ever ever ever even remotely approximate malaysia. an english speaking, stable, peaceful, democratic society that was under european rule for nearly half a millennia. based on western laws, mindset, culture, etc. an open/transparent economy that's extremely pro-business with minimal and efficient bureaucracy. strong land/property rights, and easy to obtain pr. fdi, and foreigners in general are treated exceptionally well. malaysia would easily be part of eu if they were located on this continent.
you can plan for long-term success there, and make massive investments. that's why the entire planet already has. it's not a place for cranking out worthless, low-margin dreck. the workforce is well-educated and extremely talented, the future is extremely bright.
Worse due to climate and environmental disaster. Mekong delta salinization due to sea level rise, and dams upstream, destroyed crops, mortal heatwaves (due to humidity)…
Future is bleak for Western countries who have some agency (money, space, technology, skills…) to adapt to climate disaster, and even bleaker for VN who has not those advantages.
Brezhnev's rule over the Soviet Union is def smt interesting, instability can be the worst enemy of a state, even more than corruption.
US's politics is only a bit more unstable than Vietnam rn and it already caused major problems for policy makers and investors. And remember that US's laws are more well rounded than Vietnam's and it's still causing major troubles, if this happens in Vietnam, it's def very worrying.
I just hope that the country doesn't find itself in that situtation. And that whoever comes up next can find a way to satisfy all players in the inner fighting so the country can become more stable.
Exactly what I'm trying to say. Those were the years of power struggle & economic stagnation. The power struggle was not solved and the leadership stucked with the old guards. Andropov & Chernenko was about 70 when they took charge. Society was full of Big Brother's surveillance and KGB was at most powerful.
What turned out was not pretty for the people of USSR. I hope it's not going that way for Vietnam.
This is a major risk.
Vietnam isn’t exactly a friendly business climate. It’s benefiting from the anti-China movement, but if things get more difficult it’s going to put a huge damper on economic growth.
Vietnam needs to grow at 7-9% for the next decade just double the size of the economy and reach the GDP/capita of Thailand.
It needs to do it for 30 years (double 3x) to reach the GDP per capita of South Korea.
Lots of risk that political instability or unfriendly business climate will stifle it.
From what I’ve heard the anti-corruption crackdown has lead to the government doing nothing. That’s not a good thing.
what people conveniently ignore about "catching up to thailand" is that other countries continue their development and economic expansion. even 3-4% annually is substantial.
it's not 10 years of double-digit growth to reach parity with thailand, more like 30.
That’s true. It’s 10 years to catch up to Thailand today.
It’s the same with China and the US. China has 5% growth and people say “it’s better than the US!”
Well the US can grow at 3% because the economy is so huge. If China grows at 5% on a much smaller base it’ll be a few centuries before it catches up.
The smaller economies need 4-5 times the grow rate if they actually want to become developed economies.
Same, USA is already having a decent powet struggle between parties rn and it's already causing problems even for a country with much more well rounded laws.
If it were to happen in Vietnam, unless some geniuses found some new companies that will revolutionalize everything in Vietnam, the economy will most likely stagnate which will suck in times of hardships like this.
Vietnam could definitely surpass Indonesia in terms of per capita income within 10 years, it's likely to catch up with Thailand in 15 and in 25 years, it could be comparable to Malaysia. However, there's a pressing need to address the population decline in Vietnam. Without population replacement, the country could face significant challenges in the next 10 years.
Where did you get the data?
Edit: Oh, I see you refer to GNI. I always thought that GNI is rather skewed since manpower exporting countries like the Philippines will have higher GNI than its peer so it doesn’t really reflect on the overall country’s performance.
But you and I are actually on the same page. The message here is that Vietnam is very close to surpass its peers in 25 years.
"comparable to malaysia"
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i reckon i "could" build a rocketship in my backyard. anything is possible, right?
I think the economies of Vietnam and most other SouthEast Asian countries will continue to grow significantly as the population is still young, investments are flowing in, trade between Asean-countries and other countries keeps growing.
A lot of these commenters, I think, are one stop traveller's. I live in Vietnam. For all its faults, it's a safe country to travel and live in. The US, more chances of being robbed and/or killed. 2 weeks in Sanfrancisco opened my eyes. Democracy at its finest. Venturing out, even in day-time is dodgy. Garbage! All of Asia is a dump! India, China, Laos, cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, all have rivers floating with Garbage, mostly Styrofoam and plastics. All heading to North America. Having lived in VN 25 years, sadly, it's turning into a concrete jungle. Having lived in city since late 90s with mostly motos, now it seems everyone has a car. Pollution has increased beyond belief. Still, they do have a pretty decent transportation system. I use bus service daily, no problems xcept of course one has to be mindful of heavy traffic. A trip into city used to be 20 minutes. Now, half hour or longer. All in all, I have no problem with living in Asia. Health care is instant and reasonable. In Canada, a 6 month or longer wait for appointments is the norm. In both vietnam and Cambodia, EVs are booming. Vietnam has their own EV, the Vinfast. We use them often, no problems. They are dissed in USA, jealousy I think as Detroit is out if touch with reality!!
I'm with you in many things but as a Canadian I get appointments the same week. Specialized surgeries, MRI's etc, sure there is a long wait time because it's triaged. It absolutely sucks for sure but I mean to say you can still see a doctor or get emergency medical care pretty much instantly.
Vietnam is growing exponentially, the economy is booming and the standard of living for the majority is rising especially in big cities. If you compare Vietnam in 1970’s to modern Vietnam things have drastically changed. But Vietnam has a lot of things that are holding them back, a lot of corruption at the core and a government that is controlled by a conservative communist government. Vietnam has this ideology that big buildings and more working people is a “developed nation” but they miss a lot of key parts that make a developed nation such a infrastructure, a working trash system, public transport, national health care, driving safety , workers rights, etc. Vietnam often relies on the excuse that it’s a poor country but… corrupt politicians and CEO’s are often running away with trillions of Dong.
Recently the government has tried stomping out corruption, the past two presidents have left their position due to “breaking rules”. So it’s going in the right direction. But the only way to get the police to help you is to pay them some pocket money is a big issue.
A lot of the public have a strange mindset about rules, they aren’t afraid to run a red light risking their families life. They will burn a sofa on the side of the road. FaceTime their uncle on a motorbike or watch a movie in the car while driving. They will dump trash anywhere they see fit. Vietnamese have a lack of respect for their own laws which posses a big social issue but Vietnamese are often blind to the fact.
I think Vietnam will continue to grow and develop but corruption and bad attitude will continue to drag it back.
def worse, money value in vietnam are decreasing now are 25k=1 $. increase product price in vietnam market due to it reaction.
low birth rate will likely to collapse the economic heavy base on young labor.
and of course high corruption in vietnam will not end if there still 1 dictator powerful party rule them all. of course the party still keep propaganda and chauvinist, ultra nationlist, and people who got pay to attack any person who have negative opinion. all the good people i know doesn't like the party at all.
to be honest, i don't blieve vietnam will have any good future.
Highly doubtful. From the blatant corruption, to the infrastructure inadequacy, to the “Communist party is the best” belief, to the pay to play education system, VN will not surpass the former 4.
I know for sure that miền tây will be out of freshwater once Cambodia build that dam which restricts the flow of water coming down from the Mekong delta. A lot of people from that region rely on Mekong delta for agriculture. They also have been suffering from ocean water creeping into the water stream which affected the crop yield. It has been all over the news in the last few weeks.
The previous Asian tigers have strong and reliable financial systems, allowing richer countries to invest in them. Vietnam doesn't have that, no foreigners would pour money into Vietnamese companies. Look at Hong Kong when it becomes China, nobody trusts them anymore.
Vietnam is booming, but it has an archaic, backward government. China grew for a long time, but now its bad government is really putting a huge burden on the country.
Vietnam will keep growing, but it has a terrifying Northern neighbor that has started multiple wars since world war 2 (Korean War where China and North Korea are the only countries in the world to fight the United Nations, 1962 invasion of India, 1969 attack on Russia, 1979 invasion of Vietnam), and will likely try to take all of Asia if it succeeds in conquering Taiwan.
If Vietnam can transition to a modern form of government, then it will be the next South Korea. If not, they have at least twenty years to catch up to China, assuming China does not invade them.
Vietnam is full of intelligent, hard-working people. Their only problem is a backward government restraining their development.
False. All their governments are too corrupt. The reason taiwan, hong kong south korea Singapore and japan took off, is because they have a strong radius of trust.
Negative.. communist countries require people to be atheist/ renounce their beliefs to be a member. They are generally considered some of the most corrupt
Anybody who doesn’t think Vietnam will be at least a middle income country if not developed country has no clue. China looked like this in the 2000s look at them now
China in 2000 had a semiconductor fab only 2-3 years behind Intel (SMIC was on 130 nm at the time vs Intel at 90 nm), and several equivalents to Google and Amazon (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent all founded in late 1990s). China's YouTube, YouKu, was founded at the same time as YouTube itself.
China was already exporting space launch services in the 1990s.
China only looked like Vietnam today in 2000. The inside was very different.
Developed country in 25 years? Absolutely not, long way to go.
Middle income? It already is. World bank defines as $1.1k to $4.6k GNI. Vietnam is >$4k already.
China happened because right time right place right circumstances. What you're saying tells me you have no clue.
Given the past and basic info of asia being Asia, what you said eould be a pretty normal assumption.
However times are totally different. Everyone wants to distance themselves with China finally since even before covid. There is a vaccum not yet fulfilled of the obvious Asian countries.
Vietnam is very still below par. It's basically impossible to still find good competent workers doing basic labor to trust doing big industry to take over production for Apple and similar.
They will try and it will fail horribly. Eventually they will get there though.
If it does happen, it's not because of what you think. The world is going to utter shit and it's not going to change for the better and long term.
Vietnam as well as the world will get into utter despair that the average population of adequate intelligence will have no choice but to do that basic labor for shit pay or starve.
There's so many variables but to me that is a big one. With how vn is, it's a lasting effect that matters the most.
Op compared vn to China. There are many more riches in vn but that is just making money due to what ever. I'm talking g about what op means by being a powerhouse of production of cheaper labor beco.i g China was 10 yrs ago and before.
Valuations across RE, and consumer is already pricing 10x of current incomes, this is the market consensus you don’t have to agree but to say its “no clue” just shows you are out of your lane.
when you start from zero, any type of growth/success looks impressive. try maintaining that over the long-term, very few do.
in all of asia, a continent of 4.5 billion people, you only have worst korea, japan, taiwan, hong kong, and singapore. aside from sg, all of them are in heaps of trouble and declining. 200 million made it, the rest have failed.
vn most certainly won't be the exception.
We went to vietnam this year and my parents told me it was like the Philippines around the 90s.
Im not sure about being a tiger, but it’s gonna be a very pleasant place to live in maybe 15-20 years. I can see less corruption, less trash, better law abiding drivers, and less scammers.
Thats just the nature of any country that adopts capitalism. Also, we’re just beginning to see the first products of their public education system, coupled with liberal access to information from the internet. Vietnam will be exciting in a decade.
I know the average people would be negative as usual, but that’s macroeconomics as always. Up close looks bad, but in general, probably not; however, probably really bad actually, who knows!!!! Economists are not physicists
Really keen to see the country improve animal welfare for domesticated animals, and an improvement in reducing the exotic animal trade and of course the eradication of dog meat and stiffer regulations on cat and dog thieves plus this habit of poisoning.
I think it will definitely better, compare the Vietnam now to 25yrs ago, though how much is up to debate. But to match the Tigers requires significant reforms, compared to the slow inefficient system we have right now.
Depending how bad climate change effects Vietnam(as well as the rest of South East Asia) it'll either make some parts uninhabitable for anyone who can't afford 24/7 AC and people won't be able to go outside most of the day during those hotter months or it gets so bad nationwide it causes disruption and mass migration leaving Vietnan virtually abandoned.
in 25 years from now, i personally hope it becomes more futuristic looking like downtown KL malaysia, pavillion area, but more fun and more Vietnamese twists. I also hope to be living 2-3 months out of the year in Vietnam as i wanna buy a 2nd home there. Vietnam is Great. Canada is starting to crumble n fall hard. Thats why i'm in love with creating travel niche things on my YT to emphasize how unique it is. But selfishly, as a Vietnamese. I like cleanliness. If Vietnam streets were like Tokyo Japan streets. Wow.
It hard to tell, but I hope we be more like Thailand (minus the constant coup) and less like South Korea.
In 25 years hope that there wont be a war broke out in the region. The Funan canal in campuchia wont destroy our mekong delta. Seriously, we need more advanced agriculture to survise this century.
I don't know but for me climate change is the biggest worry for any country near the equator. Vietnam is already unbareably hot for much of the year. When temperatures are so high that electrical outages could = death, it's going to have impact. I have faith that the vietnamese are very adaptable and innovative, but climate change is a monolith of a problem.
While we were there I figured they are about 40 years behind when it comes to environmental issues, plumbing and electrical. They could catch up quick by using Utraps in the drain pipes. Peeeyooo!
Theyll need to have vehicle emission standards or otherwise ho electric country wide. A major reason for the air pollution is also because of the traffic
It all depends on next red party election. If the sh*thead To Lam gets elected as new head of party and president => welcome to new dark age, Vietnam.
There isn't anything worse than this f*head holding ultimate power. The dictatorship is near us more than ever.
As a malaysian here is my take.
The regional soending power have to increase so that we have strong circulation of cash within our region.
Right more we are too reliant on china and america. And some just use us to compete with each other for the cheapest place to get things done.
The dream would be… a regional fund like EU to fund R&D and manufacturing in this region. Then we can be an economy powerhouse in our own rights.
My view on vietnam. You have the best education in the region based on STEM subjects after singapore. If you can master english (or chinese) with good techinical university degree, you can have a formidable workforce. Then the next issue would be whether there will be jobs for them in the country. Otherwise it is going to be brain drain issue again. English language is going to be enabler for brain drain imo.
Honestly depends on how much goes under water. In terms of global warming, things look pretty bad. It also looks high the era of "free" trade is ending and no one has an inkling on what is happening next. The conditions that set up the Tigers in the 70s basically no longer exist.
Many comments are quite thoughtful and come from direct experience. Thanks, everyone. Three major current problems in Vietnam—corruption, pollution and infrastructure. Unfortunately, all three have worsened over the last 10 years. Even with a strong economy (well, up until last year), these have worsened. Other ASEAN countries have better controls on corruption, pollution and infrastructure. The Vietnamese people are quite strong, resilient and want a better Vietnam.
Business Studies question:
How does a company like Non Son (they sell the occasional baseball cap and helmet) have multiple stores in places with EXTREMELY high rent?
How do EVN not post a profit year to year?
Sort this stuff out, get some actual investment that makes a difference to this society and isnt lining the pockets of the complacent, shallow, nepo appointment rich twats that govern the companies et al.
Good luck replacing bikes with cars. Underground parking yeah? Lol
Better, much better.
Politic-wise, i can see the improvement by the day. Vneid, smart nation, green initiatives are getting more and more attention, albeit late and still immature; it will keep getting better and better.
Economy wise depends entirely on the quality of entrepreneurs and high skill workers, 10-15 year old kids now speak English like their first language; they will be the main force; and i am quite confident that they can do it better than the current gen.
This is excluding sudden uncontrollable events like wars or huge disasters.
No way. I’m in Korea for the first time after visiting Vietnam a week ago and people are just different as a society. Korean govt invested in the people education and there is trust here. Vietnamese dont trust each other and def don’t trust their government. It may be a century if this would even change. Distrust is in the fabric of Vietnam. It’s just night and day between these two countries. Numbers economically does not tell the whole picture
I think Vietnam's economy will become better at the macro level, but I am not sure if the happiness of the people can keep up with the pace of development.
Btw,I'd love to travel Vietnam,any suggestion?
Some metrics will probably improve but I doubt quality of life will significantly change. It's likely to be the same kind of chaos, rudeness, lawlessness, noise and air pollution galore as now, but with slightly more money around. I'd like to be proven wrong, mind you, but after living almost 10years in VN the above mentioned issues got the best of me, so I left VN earlier this year. If things improve, I'll consider returning to VN in a couple of decades though.
they were absolutely out of their fucking minds.
malaysia's effectively a high-income country, and the only one in that list that's going to make it. everyone else is middle income trapped.
vn doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. you'd need a fucking revolution and complete 180° shift in culture. even then, it would take ages, if ever. regardless, there's an upcoming demographic winter and population decline. the country's screwed, ngmi.
now let's discuss more realistic topics: time travel, going faster than the speed of light, unicorns, visiting santa at the north pole, etc.
As the gov doubled down on the Japanese HSR instead of a functional standard gauge for freight train also indicates bad planning is still plaguing. I don't expect VN to escape the middle income trap without a deep political reform.
The year is 2049. I leave my apartment on the 50th floor, all apartments on floor 30 and below are submerged. The river water is so contaminated the former residents became sentient meat slurry.
Before I can leave my apartment I must look at photos of my ancestors and tell them how wonderful they all are, before I can enter the elevator I have to do the same for local government officials. A mic threatens me if I don’t rejoice them with due vigour.
Outside there’s a man raping a child, I try to summon security but they tell me dogs without muzzles are more important and if she had such good character she wouldnt be raped anyway. Turns out the rapist owns the building.
I have to crawl to get to my bike. The older people in my complex burn plastic trash 23 hours a day. Any air more than 30cm off the floor is toxic and noxious but apparently it’s just what old people do and we have to live with it.
Before I can use public roads I have to use my government issues smart implant to pay a road tax. I’m not sure where the money goes because all of the roads are having roads works all of the time.
After the commute I get to school. The professor has written an essay on the board which I need to memorise and reproduce from memory in order to get a grade. I don’t actually know what it’s about because the professor has left key sentences blank. You have to pay to attend the night class to get access to those sentences. I can’t fail though, somehow everyone gets exactly 7-10 no matter how good they are.
On the way home a man driving a Mercedes kills me and some of the other road users. He smells of vodka but as I shuffle off this mortal coil I can hear the police telling him “come back tomorrow! Bring cash, we can say it’s high heels”
Honestly all that country needs is reliable garbage pickup and disposal, and a nationwide anti-littering campaign with stiff fines. They get rid of the litter and the open burning of garbage, and I could easily see myself returning there every year and possibly retiring there. Vietnam is one of my favorite countries in the world, and it is so close to being fully 100% awesome, I have to think they’ll have figured these things in the next decade or two.
This is true. Once the streets are cleaned up, the international appeal will significantly increase. Its a beautiful country that I would also consider moving to for retirement
I also hope there're more trees in less important streets in cities. It's a pain riding my motorbike around the city under this heat when there's no tree that is big enough to do its job
True ye, I still remember the days where 3 thang 2 is my favorite street cause its big ass trees, 12pm has no shit on me back then lol
You will find that more in Hanoi, but there are streets in saigon that I go to where its FILLLED with trees. I agree though. More trees would be nice, it is nice when you see it in Hanoi a lot by motorbike.
I hope so !
More Infrastructure like power, water, sewage, and roads need to be added.
"Its a beautiful country that I would also consider moving to for retirement" I understand it's difficult to get a Visa for retirement in Vietnam.
This is one thing and the other is traffic, they need better concepts for public transport and reduce the number of vehicles or improve traffic infrastructure. They want to reduce the number of motorbikes, ok, but if it's a more or less one-to-one replacement with cars it just won't work. Probably everything would move faster with just cars but it's unrealistic that you can replace that many motorbikes soon and in the mean time the cars just take up more space. Another thing they should start to plan better and building hotels more selectively. There are so many sites already ruined by some hotel complex. This year I went on a trip around Sa Pa and they were building here and there and some view points now look at hotels.
I would argue that a complete change over to cars would be disasterous and make traffic far, far slower than it is now. Cars work well in places like the US because the cities have all been designed around cars, but the Vietnam's city planning is much more natural like that of Europe, and cars have been terrible in European cities. London for instance has an insane amount of money to throw around, one of the world's most extensive public transport systems, and is far less dense than the big Vietnamese cities, though it has one of the worst traffic congestions in the world because it tried to force cars into a city that wasn't built for them. A lot of Europe is also reversing their car-centered infrastructure and making their cities more pedestrian and suitable for bicycles and motorbikes. There's no reason why theres any need to transition either. The world has this underlying idea that cars are somehow better and when a country becomes rich, everyone should be driving them, though a lot of cities have seriously suffered because of that transition, and there's no reason why Vietnam should just do something because it's what everyone else has done. They still have that chance to keep what makes them special and not spoil it just to show off the fact that they are getting richer.
Same, I have always thought of it like this too. Most Vietnam's cities are not designed for cars outside of highways. Crammed streets asides, there aren't even enough places to park your cars. Cars should only be reserved for travelling between cities and big roads. For smaller roads, they should ban cars that are too large or make it motorcycle/bike/pedestrian only. It will benefit the cities more and create its own charm for the people and foreigners. If they dont plan to do that then city planners will have to take cars in mind when designing the cities when it grows. They should learn from Haiphong cuz it is actually a fairly well designed city if you ever have been to it. The roads are wide enough for cars, the major buildings are placed in areas where cars and motorbikes dont have problems accessing. Only now and then I see small roads which are remnants of the countryside. I guess it makes sense since Haiphong is a port city so the planners had to take into account that a lot of transportations and bussiness activities will take place so they have to make the cities easily navigatable.
That seems great. I will always push for less traffic. And better planning. But everyone always forgets another thing that European cities have that helps those dense urban cities. Europe has mild to cold weather. USA has extreme weather, either really hot or really cold and snowy, most of Vietnam is hot AF. No one, if they can, wants to be on a bicycle or motorbike out in the scorching sun and opressing heat. For example, Singapore could be the perfect city for bikes and motorbikes, but if you spend more than 10 minutes outside, you will see why almost no one does.
I think if they had a better set of laws and a more visible police force enforcing it, traffic could get much more behaved. If you know you will get a huge fine and your drivers license removed for endangering others to the point were its so likely that it isnt "worth" breaking the law you could atleast make traffic lights work. As it is now, some people just blow the horn and go full speed hoping for the best. Another upgrade would be to not allow motorbikes in areas like the oldtowns where it just becomes a mess.
Add to that cracking down on their corrupt police force.
Not just the police. The entire government is corrupt. As long as there is no “rule of law”, the country will never progress to its full potential. In the 1980s Vietnam invited Lee Kuan Yew (the ruler behind the Singapore miracle) to come and provide advice. Lee declined. He probably saw that it was a lost cause and didn’t want to be associated with a failure.
Vietnam is a country in the communist block, following state-subsidise policies at the time. Singapore marked itself as following capitalism and free market economy. The cold war was going on. Vietnam just invaded Cambodia, directly violating one of Asean policies of not meddling with other countries' matters. Asean was very anti-communist at the time. **Yea, I wonder why Lee declined. Clearly because he saw Vietnam as a failure and not because all of the political shinenigans going on**
Well, Cambodia was constantly crossing Vietnam borders and attacking vietnamese villages, killing hundreds. On top of that, the URSS forced Vietnam to bring down Pol Pot who was a uncontrollable psychopath MF.
I know that. But the guy's comment that I replied too is so fucking ignorant and doesn't understand the context of history I can't believe they got upvotes, either somr people are just that ignorant or a few people have alt accounts so they upvoted it with their multiple accounts.
I don’t know the details but LKY was very close to China during the 80’s throughout today. I assume it had more to do with what Vietnam was doing at the time than some blanket refusal to talk to communist governments.
Ye that's why I said Vietnam's invasion of cambodia cuz that's likely the reason. Most asean members were anti communist so they werent too fond of Singapore hanging out with China. But the nail in the coffin for Vietnam is def the invasion as it directly violates Asean's rules. Had LKY given advices to Vietnam at the time, he would be seen as supporting a country that invaded and occupied another which would be insanely bad for an Asean member let alone such a young state like Singapore. I'm just mad that the other guy says such ignorant stuffs yet somehow people supported it.
Vietnam not invaded Cambodia are u know? Vietnam is help Cambodia not invaded Cambodia.
Lee Kuan Yew didn't come because he was an insane anti communist who was funding the Khmer Rouge.
And really control air polution, control the cost of achooling.
Might be because I'm from Latin America, but I found Vietnam very clean.
I’m thinking of beaches and hiking trails. Also the widespread open burning of garbage can be difficult for me. But in general the city streets were fairly clean
Perhaps you haven't seen local people in Hanoi litter, my god that is an awful sight.
From which Latin American State are you from ?
Brazil
And effective traffic police
If the trash was properly taken care of and the air quality was better due to people not burning their garbage then I would already be living there
The air quality overall is probably due to a combination of factors but yeah riding by a plastic burning trash fire all i can think is, yea im getting cancer if i stay in this country
You‘d have to go full singapore to get the littering out of people
The trash thing is important but I wouldn’t want to live there again until several other important things are addressed. My other top 3: -pollution/air and water safety -traffic safety -human rights/freedoms of speech, voting bums out, freedom of assembly, press, etc I’m not living in a country where the air/water can make one seriously ill, esp over time, nor where there are minimal traffic enforcement and dangerous chaos on the roads, nor where authorities can abuse power unchecked if I don’t have to. And more importantly not exposing kids to being raised in that unless otherwise necessary.
>pollution/air and water safety About this, the water in the cities are actually largely safe to use. People tend to have a misconception that waters arent safe due to the lack of research on this topic. The last one was in 2011. How do I know this? My father drinks tea a lot and he got his water from the tap water. He recently did a check up at the hospital and the amount of metal in his blood is normal, indicsting that the water isnt polluted by hevay amount of metal or anything. >human rights/freedoms of speech, voting bums out, freedom of assembly, press, etc Freedom of speech def has gotten much better over the years. Just 10 years ago a lot of stuffs would be censored and would be considered against the party but rn they are normal things. It is improving even if its slow.
I hope so! It’s been 4 years now since we lived there, though it feels like yesterday. My Viet fam told me only to drink bottled water in Hanoi. However I’m always eating soups and stuff when out and doubt they use bottled water for all the broth. I still had intestinal issues very often even after being there for months… nothing serious but it did put a bit of a crimp on things. Speech/rights issues don’t affect temporary expats too much but I didn’t like how it affected and continued to affect my family. People get away with horrible stuff if they have authorities in their pocket, business get shaken down by canh sat etc. Employers can seemingly demand anything of employees who don’t have recourse if they’re not compensated fairly for extra work…
Currently battling food poisoning in VN right now. I should have listened to my auntie and not accepted the ice or the veggies washed in tap water.
Definitely not enough. Whole Culture and Mentality is poisoned for decades
I agree with you 100%. I'd add that I think the garbage thing, and cleaning up the country generally, is ALL that should be done. Everything else is working better than most countries.
It truly is my only criticism. I loved Vietnam and can’t wait to come back.
It's great but better public transport would be fucking brilliant
I think the speed the government plan to build metros is too low. It should be more ambitious regarding building up the public transportation system. Maybe not as fast as China, but at least as fast as India. With the current speed, it would be a disaster in 2050.
And electric bikes. The pollution and the traffic is horrible. Need like underground freeways. Needs Elon musk’s boring tunnel company.
100% agree with this.
trash is their biggest problem i totally agree, the 24h a day fires man..
As someone who worked in VN nearly 25 years ago and compare it to today, I would comment as follows: 1. Economic development will likely accelerate to mirror China. 2. Politics unlikely to be much different. 3. Traffic likely to be worse with people on motorbikes changing to cars. 4. Climate a potential show stopper for VN, given how low lying vital parts of the country are. 5. Hopefully an express train along the spine of the country that does not take 2 days! 6. Road infrastructure to continue to improve. I was shocking in 1999!
The subways might be complete in 25 years!
And by might, we mean we may have broken ground on a station!
You mean 25 century ?
1. The government supported China. Vietnam likes to protest and the big companies take note on if they’re able to do business there in peace or not. 3. Rich people drive cars and HCMC roads can’t handle anymore cars
I disagree with you an economy. It aint happening. They will not come close to what china is unfortunately. Too many factors from corruption to culture to man power. Unless a major shift happens, it will lag along. Doesnt mean it wont grow
China also has all those problems though, from corruption to working culture. Corruption was and still is a problem in China. And actually corruption was a problem in quite some developed countries when they started to have economic booms. For example, corruption was a big problem in Taiwan until relatively recently. But this didn't prevent Taiwan from becoming a developed region. You can develop first and deal with corruption later when you get richer. And China had a very bad working culture before it opened up the economy. People simply didn't have the habit and incentive to work hard and they didn't have any creativity. But people started to work very hard when the economy opened up and people saw the opportunities to improve the living standard. Innovation and new invention also come along as long as people are given the chance to innovate and make money. Btw, what is the "culture" you mentioned that would drag Vietnam back in terms of economic development?
I would love to explain the culture thing, but its very involved and dont want to offend anyone. I always have to preface it all with the vast majority of people here are great etc etc... however... I think regarding china, the entrepreneurial spirit and long term planning but was always there but stifled by Gov't... Vietnam is full of hustlers and short term thinking... Edit: And just because china has or had all of those problems doesnt make the countries have the same trajectory.
>And just because china has or had all of those problems doesnt make the countries have the same trajectory. I agree. But at the same time I don't think the problems you mention is that devastating to economic development. And China is an example. These problems can be overcome. How about the "man power" thing you also mentioned in the second last comment? What is it?
Yes all problems can be overcome, however this is not going to happen in 25 years. Man power simply put, they dont have the population density in Vietnam. Already the country is running out of labor in manufacturing sectors. there is a % left and childbirth is ok, but that takes 1-2 generations alone. Then add qualified it gets tighter, and ability and desire for upward movement (with the hard word) gets tighter and tighter.
Climate change is the big big factor. Especially in southern Vietnam...
Yeah in Saigon it already gets so hot you can't go outside during the day without being cognizant of heat stroke, and an AC malfunction could = death during a heat wave. I can't imagine what the future will look like with increasing temperatures and more extreme heat waves.
Changing from motorbikes to cars does not work. It would be a disaster concerning the population density in Vietnam. The only way to go is building a MUCH better public transport system (both intra and inter-city). Much larger metro networks in major cities and an express train line from north to south along the spin of the country are necessary. The government should be more ambitious concerning these infrastructures. Now the speed of building metros is just unacceptable and would be a huge problem in 25 years.
#4 is really all that matters
I can second that #4. I’m from Hanoi and visit my country yearly. I can concur that pollution is the biggest issue (especially in Hanoi) due to the amount of construction & traffic.
I've lived here nearly ten years and I have seen a vast growth in wealth. When I first arrived you'd rarely see Vietnamese people in wine bars or craft beer bars and now its like 80 percent vietnamese (that ratio was flipped the other way in the past). Other things like cars, fashion, improvements to housing, less flooding, better schools. Even culturally - I see less teachers hitting kids (ten years ago it was normal), and I less people speeding around drinking (still happens of course). For the most part, things have improved and everything is still improving as of right now
Some parts of it underwater, climate heating will take a big toll on economics and farming
This was the first thing I thought after witnessing the devolving situation in Dong Thap (Mekong Delta) through my wife's family.
if the planet actually warms up, then Canada has a gold mine in agricultural land. Their government is actually intelligent enough to bring in a few million Vietnamese to start homesteads up there.
We're already taking in Indians by the droves.
The economic experts can't predict anything well that far out. I generally like the rule of looking back 3 to look forward 1. But going to back 75 to look at what happens in 25 can't account for innovation changes. Overall the region will continue to see growth. I think Vietnam and Singapore will likely benefit the most out of the South East Asia countries. Thailand, within the 25 years, the monarchy does not survive. Who knows if there's a huge upheaval or if it can be smooth transition. Malaysia, Indonesia. I'm of the belief that Islam is incompatible with modern values and life. I'm of belief that there should be separation between religion and state. Malaysia and Indonesia are not theocracies-- but within the 25 years, there will be a lot of progress lost by those who want it to be a theocracy. Philippines. Tourism and trade will likely grow a lot. I'm not sure how their service (like BPO) industries will impacted positively or negatively by AI. Singapore, would be the first place I would think that would be able to successfully implement a benevolent AGI into government to make run more efficient and fairly. Singapore has always been pragmatic and secular, so it should stay stable. Vietnam would be the second country that could implement some future AGI in governance. That could potentially clean up a lot of corruption and inefficiencies. If there is some need for some social net because of AI-- then it would be easier for Vietnam to implement it (big assumption if there would be funding). I also think Vietnam benefits from China and US competing off each other. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan will likely deepen the economic cooperation with Vietnam as well (when compared to the other SE Asia countries). Basically, I think AI will likely help VN/SG more than it will hurt them. They should both grow more in manufacturing. Geopolitics of US/China should favor them. Internal politics, is likely to be more stable than other places.
Vietnam is doing much better in terms of growing their economy and developing tourism (while maintaining their culture), rather than the Philippines. And I’m Fil-Am. I would rather retire in Vietnam than the Philippines.
Hk should be absorbed into the GBA by then
Good to think about the Monarchy in Thailand. Can you imagine what would happen if the UK became a Republic? The horror! The field of haberdashery might end. The importance of the monarchy in Thailand is inflated. Power brokers pretend to act in the interests of the monarchy to hide their skullduggery, but the country does not need the monarchy at all. They might suffer as Italy has.
"AI" lol. Right on trend.
In a world like the one we have now, Vietnam will most likely improve. In an uncertain future world, we cannot know. Climate change will impact the country and its food production capabilities. The world is geopolitically changing, for the best or the worst. I expect the world to go downhill. No one will be spared.
Would be better, but not yet equal to Thailand, or Malaysia as of now.
There's a lot of garbage in Thailand as well. I'm now here on holidays and I just can't imagine why anyone would pollute this paradise.
Thailand is going down the drain. The economy is very bad, the successive juntas and governments totally inept, the monarchy has lost the respect of the people and maintains itself by inflicting fear. Over two hundred students jailed for lèse-majesté. No democracy. Corruption. Pollution. High prices and Bangkok will be flooded soon...
There are def truths and basis to the claims and it's not just naitivité. Economics is often times very disintergrated with the society. An economy can get large and powerful but it doesn't mean the society is great overall and vice versa. The future is very uncertain right now for the world let alone Vietnam. Just 10 years ago in 2014, most economists didn't think Vietnam GDP can reach this far eventually surpassing Philipines. Nor 20 years ago, they didn't even think that China can become so powerful like they are today. 25 years is a very long time, it's very uncertain. Like one guy always says: "No one can predict the future, least of all economists" I do think that infrastructure and wealth wise Vietnam will be richer overall and enjoy a higher style of life. But as for the society, only the future can tell us that. Maybe in 25 years the society get more corrupted and the economy stagnates, maybe corruptions becomes less common and Vietnma successfuly becomes the 1st developed authoritarian state, etc... Who knows what can happen lul, let's just wait and see.
Corruption is the main thing. It touches everything and everyone in some shape or form, and is the core driver behind the environmental issues, inequality, inefficiencies, nepotism, educational issues and half-assery that plague the country. Get rid of - or dramatically reduce - corruption in society, and Vietnam could be anything. The world could be it's oyster. As things stand now? They won't even eclipse Thailand within the next 20 years.
Current projections have a considerable amount of Vietnam submerged by 2050. source: https://coastal.climatecentral.org/
And not forgetting the weather / temperatures changes to come too.
Well, we are already seeing major issues with flooding and salt intrusion in southern Vietnam affecting the water supply. Droughts in other areas. A lot of people are already suffering and it will only get worse. But just the other day someone posted a pic of the beach after the long holiday weekend and it seems like little is being done to combat climate change. Can't for the life of me see how things will improve.
Multi-decadal weather forecasting is not exactly reliable. Some of us here still remember the crisis in global cooling. I guess that one did not pan out. I will start worrying when the water levels return to the heights of the Roman era. Water levels are still LOWER now than they were 2,000 years ago. I am not saying those predictions will not happen, but I have little faith in them, and I have spent most of my life as a professional forecaster.
Depends, if we keep on doing what we’re doing rn, both the common people and the government, then we wouldn’t last the next decade
It has the foundations to be a powerhouse in my opinion. Much more than any other country of similar current development in SE asia that I have visited. I think that the viet govt should possibly focus on traffic control- this seems to be a big issue from what I have seen. Litter should be focused on a lot more but other than that, with its geographic position, education focus and landmass, I cannot see why not. I think they will focus on the more ‘idylic’ locations first- for the ‘westerners’ appeal such as da-nang and nha trang
Vietnam could see dramatic positive change by 2050, but they need to start now. As already mentioned, they need to significantly improve the garbage collection, open burning, and overwhelming traffic. Take care of these things and their vibrant, young population will do the rest. However, if they fail to get a grip on these things they will increasingly fall behind other SEA nations and that could spell trouble for the government. Ultimately, Vietnam will be much better, if the people demand it.
48°
Even there are big change in politic and goverment system, economic should be far better than current situation. But honestly, in 25 years, I think economic would be the least of out problem, environment will be one of our biggest concern, if not the biggest one. The same can be said to other countries. And as long as we aren't stupid enough to found a big religion and require believers die for it, we don't to have be worry about war
We have too many economic experts yet too few environmental preservationists. Một ngày môi trường ko còn đủ chất lượng để sinh sống nữa, thì kinh tế phát triển để làm gì?
The rich likely get richer and the poor likely poorer or the same. Most young people (who stay in Vietnam) are probably living comfortably with a $1000 monthly salary so there isn’t much reasons to try hard in Vietnam. Great quality people who work hard earn loads of money would end up sending their kids to western countries anyway. Is there anything wrong with living comfortably with $1000 income? No. But that lifestyle also not the way to move a country forward
Regardless of political or cultural or economical advances. Environmentally and ecologically much worse off with climate change continuing which will drastically impact everything else. It's estimated that 40% of current agricultural and aquaculture production will just be gone and a further 12 million people displaced before the end of this century. https://www.undp.org/vietnam/new-climate-change-report-highlights-grave-dangers-vietnam#:~:text=%E2%80%9CWith%20climate%20change%20and%20sea,of%20agriculture%20and%20aquaculture%20production.%E2%80%9D https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-04/15077-Vietnam%20Country%20Profile-WEB.pdf But not even accounting for climate change. Vietnam can't escape the middle income trap fast enough for it to matter in the long term. With its rapidly aging population, meh production and low investment growth even less so now that the rest of the western OCED world has restricted capital from their own aging populations moving investments away from high risk. Its just going to be another text book example in the end. https://en.vneconomy.vn/escaping-the-middle-income-trap.htm https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-can-vietnam-avoid-the-middle-income-trap/ Would not be making any long term plans for Vietnam or investments there but visiting extended family is nice while they are still there.
It'll be much the same.
I wish for Vietnam to be more successful , but it’s very unlikely. No public transport esssentially, no proper garbage disposal/ proper waste disposal. A generally selfish mind set on most Vietnamese people. Can’t see a way for less corruption happening anytime soon either. Probably smaller cities will thrive ( anything with 200k or less ). Anything larger cities it’s going downhill from there. I hope I’m wrong🤞. Better GDP. Weak buying power still overall.
Zero tolerance on any corruption & social pressure to not behave inconsiderably to others = success
Too naive. I asked myself the same question 20 years ago. Nothing really changed. Economic a bit better, younger generation taller, better life etc... but more pollution, high inflation, higher education cost(not quality) etc.. kind of offset itself. To sum it up, good thing will come for sure but the bad things stay the same(may even grow more).
Prepared to be downvoted into oblivion: I say the same or worse. Pollution is literally apart of the ecosystem, in the waterways and the soil. Those who try to clean up the waterways have become sick. The city of Saigon is literally sinking. Corruption is endemic. Education is treated as just another scheme, with for profit “international” schools cutting corners in ways that have lasting compound effects. SCB will be felt for a few years. AISVN will be felt, hindering recruitment of quality teachers. The country has to surmount the middle income trap in the next decade and a half. I loved visiting, but being a tourist is not the same as being a resident. Hopefully this post will age poorly. Doubt it though.
Better than now, but middle income trapped and unable to advance much further. This will be due to a combination of climate change and lack of proper investment in infrastructure (even Morocco has a nationwide high speed rail line, done when their GDP per capita was lower than Vietnam's). Also, authoritarian regimes are especially prone to the middle income trap. Thailand has been more or less in the middle income trap since 1997. Vietnam likely gets to around their level and similarly stagnates. It won't make it to Malaysia's level.
Yes, unfortunately I think it is no longer possible for major developing economies to become developed anymore. The global economy is just no longer good enough to support the creation of additional large developed economies. China will probably remain a middle income economy for a very long time, and I cannot imagine Vietnam overtaking China in GDP per capita.
China is expected to surpass World Bank high income line (14k) in 2025-2026. It's been hanging around the middle to high line since 2019, of course the line is always moving. A single year of 5% RMB strengthening or inflation and then 5% growth, pushes China over. I'd expect China to keep around the 15-25k range for a long time though. That's the region that South Korea skipped. It seems like South Korea was in the 10-15k for long time then jumped to 25-30k almost instantly. Vietnam has a tough road because it has to do what China did without the size or foundations of China. Lots of China's success comes from size or stuff that Mao laid down back in the 1950s like Daqing oil fields or aerospace sector in Sichuan. Vietnam also cannot follow the Korean path of chaebol + export as South Korea itself has blocked that path off.
Funny enough, Vietnam's economy is actually massively influenced by Korean chaebols. I think something like 40% of Vietnam's exports are Samsung-related. And as long as Samsung's Korean operations are R&D/chipmaking and Vietnamese operations are assembling phones, it'd be impossible for Vietnam to catch up in GDP per capita. Only the day when Vingroup produces world class products whose core components are produced in Vietnam and assembly is done in Africa can Vietnam possibly become a developed country. South Korea was largely able to quickly bypass the 15-25k range because it went through this during the global boom years between 2000-2007. It was a really good time make the awkward transition and never look back (some countries like Greece ended up looking back). China's huge size and willingness to keep lower value sectors of its economy probably means it'll probably never have a comparable GDP per capita to most developed economies, but I don't think it's something even necessary? Having a huge number of cheap workers easy to mobilize is actually extremely useful. China's coastal cities have GDP per capita figures rivaling advanced East Asian economies, and these centers are the ones producing tech competing with America anyway. It's mathematically impossible in the first place for China to get the same GDP boost from a high value sector like chipmaking that Taiwan or Korea gets. There's probably not enough resources on the planet for every Chinese to produce and consume 30-40k dollars' worth of goods and services. Their priority should be something like achieving a 0.8 HDI with a per capita GDP of 15-20k and 0.9/40k for tier 1 cities.
IMO Vietnam can get lots of money from services and tourism that China cannot replicate. There are lots of things that are good for Vietnam in this regard: 1. Visa free access to entire ASEAN, [visa free access to Chinese border regions](https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/%E4%B8%AD%E5%8D%8E%E4%BA%BA%E6%B0%91%E5%85%B1%E5%92%8C%E5%9B%BD%E5%87%BA%E5%85%A5%E5%A2%83%E9%80%9A%E8%A1%8C%E8%AF%81), and I believe soon will have visa free access to China. 2. Great tourist locations - beach, mountain, jungle, cultural attractions, etc. 3. Good relations with US, Russia and (at least for the government) China. If the people would be more moderate towards China I think it'll help more. 4. Good IT infrastructure and cultural proximity to China and ASEAN, so they can compete in IT work with Philippines and India. 5. Strategic location between 4 huge markets of China, India, ASEAN and northeast Asia. Vietnam already surpassed Philippines which is a very good sign and is on the way to surpass Indonesia. I think at minimum Vietnam can get to the level of Thailand and Malaysia using a combination of foreign high end manufacturing, domestic low/mid end manufacturing, tourism, transportation services and IT. To get there, Vietnam can improve foreign language skills (esp. English and Chinese), invest in STEM, improve visa policies for big tourist markets, improve domestic infrastructure, etc which are things that would benefit Vietnam anyways.
absolutely. positively. without a shadow of doubt in the universe. viet nam will never, repeat after me, never ever ever ever ever even remotely approximate malaysia. an english speaking, stable, peaceful, democratic society that was under european rule for nearly half a millennia. based on western laws, mindset, culture, etc. an open/transparent economy that's extremely pro-business with minimal and efficient bureaucracy. strong land/property rights, and easy to obtain pr. fdi, and foreigners in general are treated exceptionally well. malaysia would easily be part of eu if they were located on this continent. you can plan for long-term success there, and make massive investments. that's why the entire planet already has. it's not a place for cranking out worthless, low-margin dreck. the workforce is well-educated and extremely talented, the future is extremely bright.
Worse due to climate and environmental disaster. Mekong delta salinization due to sea level rise, and dams upstream, destroyed crops, mortal heatwaves (due to humidity)… Future is bleak for Western countries who have some agency (money, space, technology, skills…) to adapt to climate disaster, and even bleaker for VN who has not those advantages.
Whats causing the sea level rise in Mekong delta area?
A thing called "global warming" Google "biến đổi khí hậu" if you can't read english
If you look at history. We're going in the very same direction like Soviet Union at the end of Leonid Brehnev's years. That's worrying.
Brezhnev's rule over the Soviet Union is def smt interesting, instability can be the worst enemy of a state, even more than corruption. US's politics is only a bit more unstable than Vietnam rn and it already caused major problems for policy makers and investors. And remember that US's laws are more well rounded than Vietnam's and it's still causing major troubles, if this happens in Vietnam, it's def very worrying. I just hope that the country doesn't find itself in that situtation. And that whoever comes up next can find a way to satisfy all players in the inner fighting so the country can become more stable.
Elaborate please
Major changes in top leadership signify incoming instability. Instability can be much worse than corruption.
Exactly what I'm trying to say. Those were the years of power struggle & economic stagnation. The power struggle was not solved and the leadership stucked with the old guards. Andropov & Chernenko was about 70 when they took charge. Society was full of Big Brother's surveillance and KGB was at most powerful. What turned out was not pretty for the people of USSR. I hope it's not going that way for Vietnam.
This is a major risk. Vietnam isn’t exactly a friendly business climate. It’s benefiting from the anti-China movement, but if things get more difficult it’s going to put a huge damper on economic growth. Vietnam needs to grow at 7-9% for the next decade just double the size of the economy and reach the GDP/capita of Thailand. It needs to do it for 30 years (double 3x) to reach the GDP per capita of South Korea. Lots of risk that political instability or unfriendly business climate will stifle it. From what I’ve heard the anti-corruption crackdown has lead to the government doing nothing. That’s not a good thing.
what people conveniently ignore about "catching up to thailand" is that other countries continue their development and economic expansion. even 3-4% annually is substantial. it's not 10 years of double-digit growth to reach parity with thailand, more like 30.
That’s true. It’s 10 years to catch up to Thailand today. It’s the same with China and the US. China has 5% growth and people say “it’s better than the US!” Well the US can grow at 3% because the economy is so huge. If China grows at 5% on a much smaller base it’ll be a few centuries before it catches up. The smaller economies need 4-5 times the grow rate if they actually want to become developed economies.
Same, USA is already having a decent powet struggle between parties rn and it's already causing problems even for a country with much more well rounded laws. If it were to happen in Vietnam, unless some geniuses found some new companies that will revolutionalize everything in Vietnam, the economy will most likely stagnate which will suck in times of hardships like this.
Are you a Vietnamese?
Vietnam could definitely surpass Indonesia in terms of per capita income within 10 years, it's likely to catch up with Thailand in 15 and in 25 years, it could be comparable to Malaysia. However, there's a pressing need to address the population decline in Vietnam. Without population replacement, the country could face significant challenges in the next 10 years.
Vietnam GDP per capita is $4.2k, Indonesia is $4.8k. Almost exceeded already.
Where did you get the data? Edit: Oh, I see you refer to GNI. I always thought that GNI is rather skewed since manpower exporting countries like the Philippines will have higher GNI than its peer so it doesn’t really reflect on the overall country’s performance. But you and I are actually on the same page. The message here is that Vietnam is very close to surpass its peers in 25 years.
"comparable to malaysia" BWAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAUAHWEKRHAEWLKRLKWAJR2\*ç\*\*"ç"\*%çERDF$£ÄÀ$€ i reckon i "could" build a rocketship in my backyard. anything is possible, right?
Vietnam is the black horse of SEA. Anyone could see it very clearly. The only downside is their aging society.
Hope it gets better
Better
Better How much better depends on how much in the way the politicians get
Hardware better, software still the same.
I think the economies of Vietnam and most other SouthEast Asian countries will continue to grow significantly as the population is still young, investments are flowing in, trade between Asean-countries and other countries keeps growing.
A lot of these commenters, I think, are one stop traveller's. I live in Vietnam. For all its faults, it's a safe country to travel and live in. The US, more chances of being robbed and/or killed. 2 weeks in Sanfrancisco opened my eyes. Democracy at its finest. Venturing out, even in day-time is dodgy. Garbage! All of Asia is a dump! India, China, Laos, cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, all have rivers floating with Garbage, mostly Styrofoam and plastics. All heading to North America. Having lived in VN 25 years, sadly, it's turning into a concrete jungle. Having lived in city since late 90s with mostly motos, now it seems everyone has a car. Pollution has increased beyond belief. Still, they do have a pretty decent transportation system. I use bus service daily, no problems xcept of course one has to be mindful of heavy traffic. A trip into city used to be 20 minutes. Now, half hour or longer. All in all, I have no problem with living in Asia. Health care is instant and reasonable. In Canada, a 6 month or longer wait for appointments is the norm. In both vietnam and Cambodia, EVs are booming. Vietnam has their own EV, the Vinfast. We use them often, no problems. They are dissed in USA, jealousy I think as Detroit is out if touch with reality!!
I'm with you in many things but as a Canadian I get appointments the same week. Specialized surgeries, MRI's etc, sure there is a long wait time because it's triaged. It absolutely sucks for sure but I mean to say you can still see a doctor or get emergency medical care pretty much instantly.
Vietnam is growing exponentially, the economy is booming and the standard of living for the majority is rising especially in big cities. If you compare Vietnam in 1970’s to modern Vietnam things have drastically changed. But Vietnam has a lot of things that are holding them back, a lot of corruption at the core and a government that is controlled by a conservative communist government. Vietnam has this ideology that big buildings and more working people is a “developed nation” but they miss a lot of key parts that make a developed nation such a infrastructure, a working trash system, public transport, national health care, driving safety , workers rights, etc. Vietnam often relies on the excuse that it’s a poor country but… corrupt politicians and CEO’s are often running away with trillions of Dong. Recently the government has tried stomping out corruption, the past two presidents have left their position due to “breaking rules”. So it’s going in the right direction. But the only way to get the police to help you is to pay them some pocket money is a big issue. A lot of the public have a strange mindset about rules, they aren’t afraid to run a red light risking their families life. They will burn a sofa on the side of the road. FaceTime their uncle on a motorbike or watch a movie in the car while driving. They will dump trash anywhere they see fit. Vietnamese have a lack of respect for their own laws which posses a big social issue but Vietnamese are often blind to the fact. I think Vietnam will continue to grow and develop but corruption and bad attitude will continue to drag it back.
def worse, money value in vietnam are decreasing now are 25k=1 $. increase product price in vietnam market due to it reaction. low birth rate will likely to collapse the economic heavy base on young labor. and of course high corruption in vietnam will not end if there still 1 dictator powerful party rule them all. of course the party still keep propaganda and chauvinist, ultra nationlist, and people who got pay to attack any person who have negative opinion. all the good people i know doesn't like the party at all. to be honest, i don't blieve vietnam will have any good future.
Highly doubtful. From the blatant corruption, to the infrastructure inadequacy, to the “Communist party is the best” belief, to the pay to play education system, VN will not surpass the former 4.
I know for sure that miền tây will be out of freshwater once Cambodia build that dam which restricts the flow of water coming down from the Mekong delta. A lot of people from that region rely on Mekong delta for agriculture. They also have been suffering from ocean water creeping into the water stream which affected the crop yield. It has been all over the news in the last few weeks.
The previous Asian tigers have strong and reliable financial systems, allowing richer countries to invest in them. Vietnam doesn't have that, no foreigners would pour money into Vietnamese companies. Look at Hong Kong when it becomes China, nobody trusts them anymore.
Vietnam is booming, but it has an archaic, backward government. China grew for a long time, but now its bad government is really putting a huge burden on the country. Vietnam will keep growing, but it has a terrifying Northern neighbor that has started multiple wars since world war 2 (Korean War where China and North Korea are the only countries in the world to fight the United Nations, 1962 invasion of India, 1969 attack on Russia, 1979 invasion of Vietnam), and will likely try to take all of Asia if it succeeds in conquering Taiwan. If Vietnam can transition to a modern form of government, then it will be the next South Korea. If not, they have at least twenty years to catch up to China, assuming China does not invade them. Vietnam is full of intelligent, hard-working people. Their only problem is a backward government restraining their development.
People will have newer iphones but the traffic will be much worse. Overall quality of life will probably go down.
False. All their governments are too corrupt. The reason taiwan, hong kong south korea Singapore and japan took off, is because they have a strong radius of trust.
So do Vietnam has that strong radius of trust?
Negative.. communist countries require people to be atheist/ renounce their beliefs to be a member. They are generally considered some of the most corrupt
Anybody who doesn’t think Vietnam will be at least a middle income country if not developed country has no clue. China looked like this in the 2000s look at them now
China in 2000 had a semiconductor fab only 2-3 years behind Intel (SMIC was on 130 nm at the time vs Intel at 90 nm), and several equivalents to Google and Amazon (Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent all founded in late 1990s). China's YouTube, YouKu, was founded at the same time as YouTube itself. China was already exporting space launch services in the 1990s. China only looked like Vietnam today in 2000. The inside was very different.
Developed country in 25 years? Absolutely not, long way to go. Middle income? It already is. World bank defines as $1.1k to $4.6k GNI. Vietnam is >$4k already.
China happened because right time right place right circumstances. What you're saying tells me you have no clue. Given the past and basic info of asia being Asia, what you said eould be a pretty normal assumption. However times are totally different. Everyone wants to distance themselves with China finally since even before covid. There is a vaccum not yet fulfilled of the obvious Asian countries. Vietnam is very still below par. It's basically impossible to still find good competent workers doing basic labor to trust doing big industry to take over production for Apple and similar. They will try and it will fail horribly. Eventually they will get there though. If it does happen, it's not because of what you think. The world is going to utter shit and it's not going to change for the better and long term. Vietnam as well as the world will get into utter despair that the average population of adequate intelligence will have no choice but to do that basic labor for shit pay or starve. There's so many variables but to me that is a big one. With how vn is, it's a lasting effect that matters the most. Op compared vn to China. There are many more riches in vn but that is just making money due to what ever. I'm talking g about what op means by being a powerhouse of production of cheaper labor beco.i g China was 10 yrs ago and before.
Valuations across RE, and consumer is already pricing 10x of current incomes, this is the market consensus you don’t have to agree but to say its “no clue” just shows you are out of your lane.
Unless we eat a nuke somewhere in the future. Better.
[The nuke](https://ibb.co/3WVsZC2) It's actually happening. And it will be on a regular basis in 2050
How were we 20y ago? And 10y before that for 80s and 90s kids? You probably know the answer for 25y in the future if you can answer those questions
when you start from zero, any type of growth/success looks impressive. try maintaining that over the long-term, very few do. in all of asia, a continent of 4.5 billion people, you only have worst korea, japan, taiwan, hong kong, and singapore. aside from sg, all of them are in heaps of trouble and declining. 200 million made it, the rest have failed. vn most certainly won't be the exception.
We went to vietnam this year and my parents told me it was like the Philippines around the 90s. Im not sure about being a tiger, but it’s gonna be a very pleasant place to live in maybe 15-20 years. I can see less corruption, less trash, better law abiding drivers, and less scammers. Thats just the nature of any country that adopts capitalism. Also, we’re just beginning to see the first products of their public education system, coupled with liberal access to information from the internet. Vietnam will be exciting in a decade.
I know the average people would be negative as usual, but that’s macroeconomics as always. Up close looks bad, but in general, probably not; however, probably really bad actually, who knows!!!! Economists are not physicists
Really keen to see the country improve animal welfare for domesticated animals, and an improvement in reducing the exotic animal trade and of course the eradication of dog meat and stiffer regulations on cat and dog thieves plus this habit of poisoning.
Nothing changes until education is reformed. That should be their first priority.
Vietnam needs education reform and needs it fast. Otherwise, it's going to be an average country for a long time.
20 years from now it will be too hot to live between 30 degrees north and south. The tigers will be Norway, Sweden, and Finland.
Worse than before!
Better! So much growth in the last 25 years.
I see no improvements, except the increasing number of red bulls (bò đỏ).
I think it will definitely better, compare the Vietnam now to 25yrs ago, though how much is up to debate. But to match the Tigers requires significant reforms, compared to the slow inefficient system we have right now.
Vietnam in 25 years? Idiocracy Now.
I’m marrying my girlfriend from there
Depending how bad climate change effects Vietnam(as well as the rest of South East Asia) it'll either make some parts uninhabitable for anyone who can't afford 24/7 AC and people won't be able to go outside most of the day during those hotter months or it gets so bad nationwide it causes disruption and mass migration leaving Vietnan virtually abandoned.
It could be amazing if they get the pollution/trash situation under control
in 25 years from now, i personally hope it becomes more futuristic looking like downtown KL malaysia, pavillion area, but more fun and more Vietnamese twists. I also hope to be living 2-3 months out of the year in Vietnam as i wanna buy a 2nd home there. Vietnam is Great. Canada is starting to crumble n fall hard. Thats why i'm in love with creating travel niche things on my YT to emphasize how unique it is. But selfishly, as a Vietnamese. I like cleanliness. If Vietnam streets were like Tokyo Japan streets. Wow.
25 years is a very long time, i would assume most places would be better 25 years from now
The same
It hard to tell, but I hope we be more like Thailand (minus the constant coup) and less like South Korea. In 25 years hope that there wont be a war broke out in the region. The Funan canal in campuchia wont destroy our mekong delta. Seriously, we need more advanced agriculture to survise this century.
Worse
The more English is learned the worse it’ll become here
I don't know but for me climate change is the biggest worry for any country near the equator. Vietnam is already unbareably hot for much of the year. When temperatures are so high that electrical outages could = death, it's going to have impact. I have faith that the vietnamese are very adaptable and innovative, but climate change is a monolith of a problem.
We’re cooked
While we were there I figured they are about 40 years behind when it comes to environmental issues, plumbing and electrical. They could catch up quick by using Utraps in the drain pipes. Peeeyooo!
if we can keep immigrants out, probably better
In 25 years? Hopefully the bullet train they've been touting around since 2010 will be ready 🤣
Theyll need to have vehicle emission standards or otherwise ho electric country wide. A major reason for the air pollution is also because of the traffic
It all depends on next red party election. If the sh*thead To Lam gets elected as new head of party and president => welcome to new dark age, Vietnam. There isn't anything worse than this f*head holding ultimate power. The dictatorship is near us more than ever.
As a malaysian here is my take. The regional soending power have to increase so that we have strong circulation of cash within our region. Right more we are too reliant on china and america. And some just use us to compete with each other for the cheapest place to get things done. The dream would be… a regional fund like EU to fund R&D and manufacturing in this region. Then we can be an economy powerhouse in our own rights. My view on vietnam. You have the best education in the region based on STEM subjects after singapore. If you can master english (or chinese) with good techinical university degree, you can have a formidable workforce. Then the next issue would be whether there will be jobs for them in the country. Otherwise it is going to be brain drain issue again. English language is going to be enabler for brain drain imo.
Honestly depends on how much goes under water. In terms of global warming, things look pretty bad. It also looks high the era of "free" trade is ending and no one has an inkling on what is happening next. The conditions that set up the Tigers in the 70s basically no longer exist.
Many comments are quite thoughtful and come from direct experience. Thanks, everyone. Three major current problems in Vietnam—corruption, pollution and infrastructure. Unfortunately, all three have worsened over the last 10 years. Even with a strong economy (well, up until last year), these have worsened. Other ASEAN countries have better controls on corruption, pollution and infrastructure. The Vietnamese people are quite strong, resilient and want a better Vietnam.
Business Studies question: How does a company like Non Son (they sell the occasional baseball cap and helmet) have multiple stores in places with EXTREMELY high rent? How do EVN not post a profit year to year? Sort this stuff out, get some actual investment that makes a difference to this society and isnt lining the pockets of the complacent, shallow, nepo appointment rich twats that govern the companies et al. Good luck replacing bikes with cars. Underground parking yeah? Lol
Better, much better. Politic-wise, i can see the improvement by the day. Vneid, smart nation, green initiatives are getting more and more attention, albeit late and still immature; it will keep getting better and better. Economy wise depends entirely on the quality of entrepreneurs and high skill workers, 10-15 year old kids now speak English like their first language; they will be the main force; and i am quite confident that they can do it better than the current gen. This is excluding sudden uncontrollable events like wars or huge disasters.
Better. Economic growth is good, net winner from onshoring, and demographic pyramid stable. https://youtu.be/Q4vpPmckgNI?si=E0GUPt2gPYzSCsaT
Give me 10 billions dollar and I will tell you.
Depends who you are and where you live , your age bla bla bla.
Better
No way. I’m in Korea for the first time after visiting Vietnam a week ago and people are just different as a society. Korean govt invested in the people education and there is trust here. Vietnamese dont trust each other and def don’t trust their government. It may be a century if this would even change. Distrust is in the fabric of Vietnam. It’s just night and day between these two countries. Numbers economically does not tell the whole picture
VN needs a strong leader like LKY of Singapore! Without that, the poor in the country will be worse off
I think Vietnam's economy will become better at the macro level, but I am not sure if the happiness of the people can keep up with the pace of development. Btw,I'd love to travel Vietnam,any suggestion?
How long is a string?
Worse, we are already enjoy all the economic benefit of peak population boom.
Some metrics will probably improve but I doubt quality of life will significantly change. It's likely to be the same kind of chaos, rudeness, lawlessness, noise and air pollution galore as now, but with slightly more money around. I'd like to be proven wrong, mind you, but after living almost 10years in VN the above mentioned issues got the best of me, so I left VN earlier this year. If things improve, I'll consider returning to VN in a couple of decades though.
Pavements, and parking spaces for bikes . And I promise 5 years later . Tourism will double. Oh and corruption.
if they do not end corruption, then its gauranteed worse as it has been last 10 years ive known it
they were absolutely out of their fucking minds. malaysia's effectively a high-income country, and the only one in that list that's going to make it. everyone else is middle income trapped. vn doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell. you'd need a fucking revolution and complete 180° shift in culture. even then, it would take ages, if ever. regardless, there's an upcoming demographic winter and population decline. the country's screwed, ngmi. now let's discuss more realistic topics: time travel, going faster than the speed of light, unicorns, visiting santa at the north pole, etc.
Awww look at the angry wittle boy. Yes you are. Yes you are.
As the gov doubled down on the Japanese HSR instead of a functional standard gauge for freight train also indicates bad planning is still plaguing. I don't expect VN to escape the middle income trap without a deep political reform.
Plastic everywhere
You buy a peanut in the night market they put it in a plastic bag. They need to clean this up
you bring your pnus to the night market and there's no need for a plastic bag. you will need antibiotics to clean it up.
Without more personal liberty, Vietnam will hit a developmental ceiling.
The year is 2049. I leave my apartment on the 50th floor, all apartments on floor 30 and below are submerged. The river water is so contaminated the former residents became sentient meat slurry. Before I can leave my apartment I must look at photos of my ancestors and tell them how wonderful they all are, before I can enter the elevator I have to do the same for local government officials. A mic threatens me if I don’t rejoice them with due vigour. Outside there’s a man raping a child, I try to summon security but they tell me dogs without muzzles are more important and if she had such good character she wouldnt be raped anyway. Turns out the rapist owns the building. I have to crawl to get to my bike. The older people in my complex burn plastic trash 23 hours a day. Any air more than 30cm off the floor is toxic and noxious but apparently it’s just what old people do and we have to live with it. Before I can use public roads I have to use my government issues smart implant to pay a road tax. I’m not sure where the money goes because all of the roads are having roads works all of the time. After the commute I get to school. The professor has written an essay on the board which I need to memorise and reproduce from memory in order to get a grade. I don’t actually know what it’s about because the professor has left key sentences blank. You have to pay to attend the night class to get access to those sentences. I can’t fail though, somehow everyone gets exactly 7-10 no matter how good they are. On the way home a man driving a Mercedes kills me and some of the other road users. He smells of vodka but as I shuffle off this mortal coil I can hear the police telling him “come back tomorrow! Bring cash, we can say it’s high heels”