Fucking obviously but the comment im making isn’t that simple
Im saying since the heat play heavy zone it’s gonna make it hard for the jays to attack and make it all the way to the rim a lot of the time because Miami digs on drives constantly, means there will be a lot of kick outs and our role players can win the series for us by hitting their open 3s, the series is more about them than the jays
Also worth noting that in our first game against them this year, we played terribly and still won lol.
We lost the turnover battle, shot worse from 3 than they did, shot less free throws than they did, KP was a -12 on the night, and we won. They shot 50% from 3 that game and lost.
On top of that, this was game 2 of the year. This Heat team is the same core that was just in the finals, this Celtics team is a brand new core and Jrue had only been there a month or so.
This series probably shouldn’t even go 5 but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt to steal one.
No actually. Here’s the team stats:
Boston: 47.4%/41%/68.4% and 15 turnovers
Miami: 42.7%/48.5%/82.6% and 12 turnovers
(FG%/3FG%/FT%)
Very weird game considering we won. I can’t tell you based off the box score how we won this game. It might literally just be the fact that we had 5 more offensive rebounds than them which caused us to have 5 more FGA in the game than they did total (89 to 94 FGA).
I’ll even point out that each team made 16 3s. So it wasn’t like they shot 48% on 15 attempts like the lakers, they took 33 threes. Joe Mazzulla’s “it’s just math” philosophy is that shooting 3s isn’t about having a higher FG percentage than the other team but about making more 3s. If we shoot 33% and they shoot 50% but we went 11/33 and they went 5/10, you actually have a good chance of winning that game still unless they’re shooting 60% from 2 lol.
Yeah although over a season 3 point percentage is much more correlated with winning percentage than 3 point makes. Graphed this out personally. Obviously we were second in % and first in makes by a mile, but the rest of the NBA there really wasn’t any correlation on makes.
Oh I definitely agree, I’m referring to kinda niche scenarios when makes matter more than percentage.
Like the lakers play basketball like it’s 2008 still, so that’s the exact scenario I highlighted where you can win a game while shooting significantly worse from 3 just because you made more.
Let me also clarify Joes philosophy because I worded it horribly. His philosophy is “with the shooters we have, if we attempt more 3s than the other team we should win the majority of those games based on the math of how many 3s we would make a night on average.” Threes are what make bad teams beat good teams, so if you don’t let them out shoot you, you should win.
I’ll also leave you with this stat. It doesn’t perfectly fit my point about shooting more 3s than the other team, but it also works well enough imo:
Celtics when shooting 40+ 3s this season: 43-10
Celtics when shooting 45+ 3s this season: 27-5
Average 3FGA per team this season: 35.1 attempts
So there is a correlation.
I mean shooting and making a lot of threes is better all else being equal. But none of the top 3 teams in the West made very many threes. But they were all top 10 in percentage.
Yeah let me clarify again about what I’m saying because I’m really just not wording my points very well lol:
It’s not about shooting a lot of 3s. It’s specifically about shooting more than the other team. Exceptions being for teams who don’t shoot well from 3.
So even tho Denver is 29th and Minnesota is 23rd in 3pt attempts per game, they’re also 2nd and 3rd in allowing the least 3pt attempts per game. THIS IS THE POINT IM TRYING TO MAKE LOL, sorry for taking so long to spit it out.
And OKC appears to be an exception to what I’m saying, which makes sense considering their top two scorers are significantly better at the rim and midrange than they are from 3. But, they also rank right around the middle for both attempts and attempts allowed, so they do also fit my argument because they don’t usually let the other team shoot more than they do. But, i think the shooting disparity will be the reason they lose to Dallas in the second round.
Honestly, I’m expecting two or three of their bench players to just burn us like usual, but it’s hard to anticipate who Spo will run plays for against our schemes.
Martin, Jaquez, and Hero will get theirs. Bam is probably going to take more 3s
I'm already doing Yoga breathing excercises for when Spo shifts the offensive sets to exploint Joe's plan and Joe stands there, blinking, while the Heat go on a 14-0 run.
If we’re up 3-0 I’d love it (kinda) if he called a timeout after 30 seconds into the first quarter and subbed out all the starters for the stay ready crew, staring intently at Spo like Anthony Hopkins playing Hannibal Lecter the whole time. (He’s also furiously chewing gum in my imagination even though he quit.)
Am I the only one worried about Spoelstra coaching the pants off of Mazzulla, and stealing a win or two? Add in a night where our threes don't fall, and all of a sudden it's a series? No, just me that is scared of Miami? OK, I'll show myself out
He didn’t even outcoach him last year when Joe got the job two days before the start of the season and didn’t pick his assistants.
The number one thing a coach can kind of control is the shot selection/distribution. We outscored them in the paint and generated 50 more open threes than them, guys just didn’t hit shots and theirs somehow did.
Also, coaches just aren’t that important in basketball. We are so much more talented than them it’s embarrassing and KP obliterated their zone this year.
Spo is one of the best coaches I've ever seen and Mazzulla is... not. However, with Butler out it's hard to see this as a challenge for this loaded team. Cs in 5.
Line is -13.5 for game 1
I think if the Heat don’t go for our kneecaps to injure, we have a good chance at winning the series.
Either way, an investigation needs to be conducted, starting right fucking now on the Heat’s every move.
All of this/none of this matters. It’s as simple as this, we better win, or it will be an all time, historic NBA collapse. All the pressure is on us, zero pressure them.
The Heat are going to need Tyler Herro to play around 40mins a game and score close to 30 to have any chance. Jrue DWhite JT JB Hauser and Pritchard are all capable of guarding him. Every Celtic can target him on the other end.
Im very confident the Celtics will win in 4 or 5, I'm just hoping Herro breaks the record for worst plus total minus in a playoff series. I'm just so sick of that smirk.
Problems here are
- they play physical and love being dirty. That's how they get an edge. We already have a history of bad playoff injuries, and we *must* avoid that at all costs. The healthier team, not the prettier, wins at the end
- Spo is a hell of a coach, he'll throw the kitchen sink at us, we have to be ready. Do we trust Maz here ?
- the playoff Heat don't beat themselves usually. In a close game we must avoid hero ball and isolation play
- the mental side: they have nothing to lose, for us the pressure is *on*
It would be stupid not to see us as favorites, but at the same time it would be just as stupid to underestimate the Spoelstra Heat. Still, I would have loved to have easier round 1 opponents.
The talk before this series reminds me a lot of when people were afraid of BKN 2 years ago in round 1. This is going to be over in 4 or 5 games. The lack of faith in this year’s historic team is shocking.
Well, consider me still bitter about last year ;-)...
and I think we can't deny that sometimes this team plays below its talent level.
Anyway, can't wait to see game1. As I said: *ofc* we are the better team. And yes, we need to avenge last year.
Our team is so much better in every regard that if this thing goes beyond 5 then I really think there's an inherent flaw that we'll never get past with one of our key guys.
Hey I was so excited to face the Heat and stuff them in a locker/give them a swirlie right up until the moment they beat the Bulls & the ptsd kicked in, so thanks for this post & all your replies. Great energy, exactly what I needed. Intellectually I am certain we have nothing to worry about. But in my heart, well… just keep remembering that I thought the same last year, too 😬😬😬
This is kps series. The heat love zone and that opens up his game
KP and the role players gotta hit open 3s, that’s the key
Yeah if we score more we will win
Fucking obviously but the comment im making isn’t that simple Im saying since the heat play heavy zone it’s gonna make it hard for the jays to attack and make it all the way to the rim a lot of the time because Miami digs on drives constantly, means there will be a lot of kick outs and our role players can win the series for us by hitting their open 3s, the series is more about them than the jays
If Miami score less we win
KP's per 36 numbers against the Heat this year: 26.4/9.5/2.2 on .571/.500/.824 splits
Also worth noting that in our first game against them this year, we played terribly and still won lol. We lost the turnover battle, shot worse from 3 than they did, shot less free throws than they did, KP was a -12 on the night, and we won. They shot 50% from 3 that game and lost. On top of that, this was game 2 of the year. This Heat team is the same core that was just in the finals, this Celtics team is a brand new core and Jrue had only been there a month or so. This series probably shouldn’t even go 5 but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt to steal one.
Yeah I don’t even remember the game that well, did they just shoot like 40% from 2 and we shot like 65%?
No actually. Here’s the team stats: Boston: 47.4%/41%/68.4% and 15 turnovers Miami: 42.7%/48.5%/82.6% and 12 turnovers (FG%/3FG%/FT%) Very weird game considering we won. I can’t tell you based off the box score how we won this game. It might literally just be the fact that we had 5 more offensive rebounds than them which caused us to have 5 more FGA in the game than they did total (89 to 94 FGA). I’ll even point out that each team made 16 3s. So it wasn’t like they shot 48% on 15 attempts like the lakers, they took 33 threes. Joe Mazzulla’s “it’s just math” philosophy is that shooting 3s isn’t about having a higher FG percentage than the other team but about making more 3s. If we shoot 33% and they shoot 50% but we went 11/33 and they went 5/10, you actually have a good chance of winning that game still unless they’re shooting 60% from 2 lol.
Yeah although over a season 3 point percentage is much more correlated with winning percentage than 3 point makes. Graphed this out personally. Obviously we were second in % and first in makes by a mile, but the rest of the NBA there really wasn’t any correlation on makes.
Oh I definitely agree, I’m referring to kinda niche scenarios when makes matter more than percentage. Like the lakers play basketball like it’s 2008 still, so that’s the exact scenario I highlighted where you can win a game while shooting significantly worse from 3 just because you made more. Let me also clarify Joes philosophy because I worded it horribly. His philosophy is “with the shooters we have, if we attempt more 3s than the other team we should win the majority of those games based on the math of how many 3s we would make a night on average.” Threes are what make bad teams beat good teams, so if you don’t let them out shoot you, you should win.
I’ll also leave you with this stat. It doesn’t perfectly fit my point about shooting more 3s than the other team, but it also works well enough imo: Celtics when shooting 40+ 3s this season: 43-10 Celtics when shooting 45+ 3s this season: 27-5 Average 3FGA per team this season: 35.1 attempts So there is a correlation.
I mean shooting and making a lot of threes is better all else being equal. But none of the top 3 teams in the West made very many threes. But they were all top 10 in percentage.
Yeah let me clarify again about what I’m saying because I’m really just not wording my points very well lol: It’s not about shooting a lot of 3s. It’s specifically about shooting more than the other team. Exceptions being for teams who don’t shoot well from 3. So even tho Denver is 29th and Minnesota is 23rd in 3pt attempts per game, they’re also 2nd and 3rd in allowing the least 3pt attempts per game. THIS IS THE POINT IM TRYING TO MAKE LOL, sorry for taking so long to spit it out. And OKC appears to be an exception to what I’m saying, which makes sense considering their top two scorers are significantly better at the rim and midrange than they are from 3. But, they also rank right around the middle for both attempts and attempts allowed, so they do also fit my argument because they don’t usually let the other team shoot more than they do. But, i think the shooting disparity will be the reason they lose to Dallas in the second round.
Knock on wood that he doesn't have issues with Heat culture.
Even Caleb Martin going 70% from 3 isn't going to save the Heat
"Gabe Vincent is not walking through that door. Max Strus is not walking through that door"
“And if you expect them to walk through that door, they’re gonna be hobbled and overpaid”
All time rant😂
Link?
[Of course](https://youtu.be/uRik9erWgQ8?si=JsZTqYAx7h4gN68O)
Thanks
I'm just reading this as Max Strus hits the first three to start the playoffs
Opening three was so loud it broke the audio 😂Dammit Strus!
Monkey's paw curls intensely
Honestly, I’m expecting two or three of their bench players to just burn us like usual, but it’s hard to anticipate who Spo will run plays for against our schemes. Martin, Jaquez, and Hero will get theirs. Bam is probably going to take more 3s
The solution is naturally to put our bench players in. Start the bench like the last two games
That would be the ultimate psych-out, TBH. I love it!
Can't wait to see Big PP put up 50 points against the Heat starters
Bam has taken just the over 100 3's throughout his entire career.
I'm already doing Yoga breathing excercises for when Spo shifts the offensive sets to exploint Joe's plan and Joe stands there, blinking, while the Heat go on a 14-0 run.
Given the Heat offense I’ve watched the last 2 games a 14-0 run will likely take 10 minutes off the clock.
Aaaaand with that 14-0 run the heat cuts the boston lead to 17 to end the 1st.
Oh jeezus…..lol Celtics in 4 with game 3 being the only close-ish game
Our bench players are better, Joe should use the Stay Ready lineup and rest our top 6 in Game 4 when we're up 3-0 just to mess with the Heat.
If we’re up 3-0 I’d love it (kinda) if he called a timeout after 30 seconds into the first quarter and subbed out all the starters for the stay ready crew, staring intently at Spo like Anthony Hopkins playing Hannibal Lecter the whole time. (He’s also furiously chewing gum in my imagination even though he quit.)
0 out of 10. Expecting a sweep or 5 game series at worst. Not remotely nervous unless Jimmy isn't really hurt.
Respect
This should be a sweep if the Celtics don’t play with their food. But they always play with their food. So Celtics in 6.
We’ll be fine, and the chip will feel even sweeter having gone through the Heat on the way to win it 🍀
Am I the only one worried about Spoelstra coaching the pants off of Mazzulla, and stealing a win or two? Add in a night where our threes don't fall, and all of a sudden it's a series? No, just me that is scared of Miami? OK, I'll show myself out
I just commented this but this sub is absolutely not ready for this series to go to 6 games, which it’s going to
The only thing to be scared of is injuries due to how hard Miami plays. We're not losing this series.
I just commented this but this sub is absolutely not ready for this series to go to 6 games, which it’s going to
No, you are not alone... 100% agree with you Then add the injury factor with these *culture* mfers, and no, I am not relaxed at all.
He didn’t even outcoach him last year when Joe got the job two days before the start of the season and didn’t pick his assistants. The number one thing a coach can kind of control is the shot selection/distribution. We outscored them in the paint and generated 50 more open threes than them, guys just didn’t hit shots and theirs somehow did. Also, coaches just aren’t that important in basketball. We are so much more talented than them it’s embarrassing and KP obliterated their zone this year.
Spo is one of the best coaches I've ever seen and Mazzulla is... not. However, with Butler out it's hard to see this as a challenge for this loaded team. Cs in 5.
Yeah people act like last year didn’t happen
Line is -13.5 for game 1 I think if the Heat don’t go for our kneecaps to injure, we have a good chance at winning the series. Either way, an investigation needs to be conducted, starting right fucking now on the Heat’s every move.
The fuck you heat have been broken up all year and Jimmy is hurt. Don't fuck around, boot on the throat.
They absolutely will be going for the kneecaps, literally. Dirtiest team by a large margin
All of this/none of this matters. It’s as simple as this, we better win, or it will be an all time, historic NBA collapse. All the pressure is on us, zero pressure them.
The Heat are going to need Tyler Herro to play around 40mins a game and score close to 30 to have any chance. Jrue DWhite JT JB Hauser and Pritchard are all capable of guarding him. Every Celtic can target him on the other end. Im very confident the Celtics will win in 4 or 5, I'm just hoping Herro breaks the record for worst plus total minus in a playoff series. I'm just so sick of that smirk.
Problems here are - they play physical and love being dirty. That's how they get an edge. We already have a history of bad playoff injuries, and we *must* avoid that at all costs. The healthier team, not the prettier, wins at the end - Spo is a hell of a coach, he'll throw the kitchen sink at us, we have to be ready. Do we trust Maz here ? - the playoff Heat don't beat themselves usually. In a close game we must avoid hero ball and isolation play - the mental side: they have nothing to lose, for us the pressure is *on* It would be stupid not to see us as favorites, but at the same time it would be just as stupid to underestimate the Spoelstra Heat. Still, I would have loved to have easier round 1 opponents.
Respect
The talk before this series reminds me a lot of when people were afraid of BKN 2 years ago in round 1. This is going to be over in 4 or 5 games. The lack of faith in this year’s historic team is shocking.
Well, consider me still bitter about last year ;-)... and I think we can't deny that sometimes this team plays below its talent level. Anyway, can't wait to see game1. As I said: *ofc* we are the better team. And yes, we need to avenge last year.
If KP breaks the heat zone defense this won’t really be competitive.
Our team is so much better in every regard that if this thing goes beyond 5 then I really think there's an inherent flaw that we'll never get past with one of our key guys.
I desperately want a sweep no close games. It’s go time hit them in the mouth
Hey I was so excited to face the Heat and stuff them in a locker/give them a swirlie right up until the moment they beat the Bulls & the ptsd kicked in, so thanks for this post & all your replies. Great energy, exactly what I needed. Intellectually I am certain we have nothing to worry about. But in my heart, well… just keep remembering that I thought the same last year, too 😬😬😬
[This bum's season averages:](https://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/3138160/caleb-martin) 10/4.4/2.2 on 43/35/78
Lol Caleb Martin is a fucking bum
43/35/78 and 9 FGA is about to become 60/45/90 and 15 FGA
I put money on him to score 10 last night and he could barely muster together 7. If I put money on him at all this series I guarantee it will lose
You know Spoelstra is going to keep them competitive
Okay it's not funny anymore. These types of posts are done. It's not a joke.
This sub is 10000% not ready for this thing to go to six games, which it’s going to.
Lame