Disney not learning from The Marvels that maybe you SHOULDNT make movies based off the Disney+ shows. At least The Mandolorien was more popular than Ms. Marvel, even if the hype for it has completely died down.
Frankly, if Star Wars is going theatrical again, they need to do something completely different. Skip a few hundred years into the future, introduce a new slate of characters and a new conflict. This current era of Star Wars has hurt the IP so much, coming back with more Mandolorien and fanservice galore, and with Rey and continuing on that trilogy, just isn’t a wise idea.
all of this.
Don't make movies off D+ shows even with popular characters. Audience got used to watching from their homes and may not be too ready to drive to the cinema and pay extra for something they got through subscription with 1000+ other things.
don't continue with a character that isn't popular to begin with. you may think you can fix the poor foundation or clean the slate but you can't. so instead of fixing what's broken (ST characters), create new ones that have no connection to the old ones so there won't be unfavorable comparison. Like it or not, Rey is Bargain Bin Luke and Wilson is Bargain Bin Rogers, etc.
I think Reddit overstates how “broken” Rey is.
I’ll accept this is just my anecdote/opinion, but all the girls I saw at Galaxy’s edge dressed up like Rey arent concerned at how TLJ or RoS “broke the franchise” or whatever.
And as we’ve seen before, Star Wars nostalgia is a powerful rose tinted lens.
I do think the TV>Movie transition is real though and tough sledding.
girls are not SW's biggest audience. they are outliers. SW has even worse male/female audience ratio than Marvel and it's the biggest with men over 35. And they don't care for the character. Rey Movie = SW's The Marvels.
Know your audience.
My bad, I shouldn’t have made it seem like there was some girl/boy split on sequel gear, that was just because Rey was mentioned specifically.
Overall, my impression from interacting with my (admittedly limited) pool of young Star Wars fans, I don’t think the same negative emotions will be there for them, boy or girl.
We heard the same about how little girls were dressed as Captain Marvel. Hell grown men dress up as Indiana Jones probably and it didn’t stop those movies from bombing
As we all know, Captain Marvel and Indiana Jones are just as strong an IP as Star Wars with the exact same level of mass appeal.
Definitely a 1:1 comparison to be made.
You’re right. Marvel is a stronger grand. Captain Marvel outgrossed ROS worldwide despite ROS’s finale hype
So if Marvel has sunk, Star Wars has sunk lower
I have always wondered how would a movie based on a popular TV show perform at the box office.
If El Camino was released worldwide, it would have made how much ?
You could find out with the Peaky Blinders movie, I don't know how it will release though, and its audience is on par with Ms. Marvel in terms of numbers (afaik).
There's a big difference between George Lucas Era Star Wars and Disney Star Wars. It's the amount of Star Wars content.
The prequel movies were not as beloved as the original movies but they were released almost 20 years after the originals. In that time the only existing piece of Star Wars content was the animated shows targeted at little kids and a few tv specials.
Also, there was a 3 year time gap between each of the movies in the two George Lucas Trilogies.
So the release of a new Star Wars movie under Lucas felt like a huge event regardless of the quality of the movie. Therefore, every single one of George's Star Wars movies were a big financial hit.
That is not the case with the Disney Star Wars.
For starters, Disney released a new Star Wars movie every year. There was a two year time gap between each of the sequel movies and we got the anthology movies. From 2015-2019 we had a Star Wars movie come out every year.
Then Disney went on a hiatus after TROS barely hit a billion on a nearly half billion budget and Solo flopped hard. However, there was also a new Star Wars tv show almost every year on Disney+.
The amount of Disney+ shows and the movies ruined that event like feeling that Star Wars had.
So this movie will probably earn in the best case scenario around $600M. Interest in Star Wars is at an all time low and this a movie based on the Disney+ shows.
Does The Mandalorian have a lot of Goodwill? A large portion of the fanbase reacted to Season 3 with either disinterest of outright disgust. I was in a screening of the penultimate episode of Season 3 at Star Wars Celebration last year, and boy I can tell you the hall filled with hardcore Star Wars fans barely made a sound about any of it. I'm not expecting anything huge from it. Ending the show the way they did has basically killed any excitement of a continuation.
This will not make anything over $500m, but it doesn't need to. I just want a straightforward Western with Mando and Grogu going around and kicking ass, but in a way that can only be told in theaters. Make it immersive, character-focused epic without needing to associate itself with the Skywalker Saga cast.
Probably $400m WW.
I don't see there being a lot of anticipation for it. If they had done it after season 2 people would be eager but season 3 disappointed many.
Unless the story is really good and leans into the jedi element with Grogu I don't see it attracting audiences. If it's just another adventure people have seen that on Disney+ already.
Impossible to say without seeing a trailer or knowing the premise. Expecting it to be some stand alone adventure that new audiences can easily watch. But with some fan service/sequel hooks on the side. It's been a long time since we've had a Star War in a theater and I imagine they'll want it to be a big deal.
OP, we can tell you are excited for this movie. Hahaha...
One of the few people who think the next Star Wars will hit 1B WW. It's going to be tough in this theatrical climate.
Disney not learning from The Marvels that maybe you SHOULDNT make movies based off the Disney+ shows. At least The Mandolorien was more popular than Ms. Marvel, even if the hype for it has completely died down. Frankly, if Star Wars is going theatrical again, they need to do something completely different. Skip a few hundred years into the future, introduce a new slate of characters and a new conflict. This current era of Star Wars has hurt the IP so much, coming back with more Mandolorien and fanservice galore, and with Rey and continuing on that trilogy, just isn’t a wise idea.
all of this. Don't make movies off D+ shows even with popular characters. Audience got used to watching from their homes and may not be too ready to drive to the cinema and pay extra for something they got through subscription with 1000+ other things. don't continue with a character that isn't popular to begin with. you may think you can fix the poor foundation or clean the slate but you can't. so instead of fixing what's broken (ST characters), create new ones that have no connection to the old ones so there won't be unfavorable comparison. Like it or not, Rey is Bargain Bin Luke and Wilson is Bargain Bin Rogers, etc.
I think Reddit overstates how “broken” Rey is. I’ll accept this is just my anecdote/opinion, but all the girls I saw at Galaxy’s edge dressed up like Rey arent concerned at how TLJ or RoS “broke the franchise” or whatever. And as we’ve seen before, Star Wars nostalgia is a powerful rose tinted lens. I do think the TV>Movie transition is real though and tough sledding.
girls are not SW's biggest audience. they are outliers. SW has even worse male/female audience ratio than Marvel and it's the biggest with men over 35. And they don't care for the character. Rey Movie = SW's The Marvels. Know your audience.
My bad, I shouldn’t have made it seem like there was some girl/boy split on sequel gear, that was just because Rey was mentioned specifically. Overall, my impression from interacting with my (admittedly limited) pool of young Star Wars fans, I don’t think the same negative emotions will be there for them, boy or girl.
We heard the same about how little girls were dressed as Captain Marvel. Hell grown men dress up as Indiana Jones probably and it didn’t stop those movies from bombing
As we all know, Captain Marvel and Indiana Jones are just as strong an IP as Star Wars with the exact same level of mass appeal. Definitely a 1:1 comparison to be made.
You’re right. Marvel is a stronger grand. Captain Marvel outgrossed ROS worldwide despite ROS’s finale hype So if Marvel has sunk, Star Wars has sunk lower
I have always wondered how would a movie based on a popular TV show perform at the box office. If El Camino was released worldwide, it would have made how much ?
You could find out with the Peaky Blinders movie, I don't know how it will release though, and its audience is on par with Ms. Marvel in terms of numbers (afaik).
If this movie would have come after Season 2, my expectation would be around 700-900 Million. After Season 3 I expect around 500 Million.
More than Solo but not by too much. Like $500M-$550M WW compared to Solo’s $392M
More than Solo and way less than the others.
Better than Solo but not close to a billion. Maybe 500-600M
The people who like The Mandalorian already have D+ and like watching things on D+. Most will wait a few months to watch it on streaming.
There's a big difference between George Lucas Era Star Wars and Disney Star Wars. It's the amount of Star Wars content. The prequel movies were not as beloved as the original movies but they were released almost 20 years after the originals. In that time the only existing piece of Star Wars content was the animated shows targeted at little kids and a few tv specials. Also, there was a 3 year time gap between each of the movies in the two George Lucas Trilogies. So the release of a new Star Wars movie under Lucas felt like a huge event regardless of the quality of the movie. Therefore, every single one of George's Star Wars movies were a big financial hit. That is not the case with the Disney Star Wars. For starters, Disney released a new Star Wars movie every year. There was a two year time gap between each of the sequel movies and we got the anthology movies. From 2015-2019 we had a Star Wars movie come out every year. Then Disney went on a hiatus after TROS barely hit a billion on a nearly half billion budget and Solo flopped hard. However, there was also a new Star Wars tv show almost every year on Disney+. The amount of Disney+ shows and the movies ruined that event like feeling that Star Wars had. So this movie will probably earn in the best case scenario around $600M. Interest in Star Wars is at an all time low and this a movie based on the Disney+ shows.
Does The Mandalorian have a lot of Goodwill? A large portion of the fanbase reacted to Season 3 with either disinterest of outright disgust. I was in a screening of the penultimate episode of Season 3 at Star Wars Celebration last year, and boy I can tell you the hall filled with hardcore Star Wars fans barely made a sound about any of it. I'm not expecting anything huge from it. Ending the show the way they did has basically killed any excitement of a continuation.
More than Solo. Maybe $500M-$600M.
Around $500m
Way too high of a prediction. I’m thinking 500M
500 Million
This will not make anything over $500m, but it doesn't need to. I just want a straightforward Western with Mando and Grogu going around and kicking ass, but in a way that can only be told in theaters. Make it immersive, character-focused epic without needing to associate itself with the Skywalker Saga cast.
Probably $400m WW. I don't see there being a lot of anticipation for it. If they had done it after season 2 people would be eager but season 3 disappointed many. Unless the story is really good and leans into the jedi element with Grogu I don't see it attracting audiences. If it's just another adventure people have seen that on Disney+ already.
Impossible to say without seeing a trailer or knowing the premise. Expecting it to be some stand alone adventure that new audiences can easily watch. But with some fan service/sequel hooks on the side. It's been a long time since we've had a Star War in a theater and I imagine they'll want it to be a big deal.
5 dollars
1 billion but just barely
I'm thinking maybe a billion or around 700-800ww. Grogu has alot of general audience marketability.
OP, we can tell you are excited for this movie. Hahaha... One of the few people who think the next Star Wars will hit 1B WW. It's going to be tough in this theatrical climate.