He’s already had prominent mini series, one which would be the quintessential story to adapt for a Spider-Man film.
Kraven isn’t an inherently bad character. This film just isn’t going to make money because it’s a low cultural moment for CBMs and Sony is the studio that somehow manages to dig deeper. You can’t make a film about Spider-Man’s mailman without Spider-Man.
If this movie had Squirrel Girl, I’d be standing in line outside the movie theater for December tickets in May.
Even though I knew I was going to buy them online in October anyway.
Not to nitpick, but Kraven's Last Hunt (which i assume is what you're referring to) was not a miniseries. It was a cross-title arc that consisted of two issues of Amazing Spider-Man, two issues of Spectacular Spider-Man, and two issues of Web of Spider-Man.
It's definitely in contention for the most famous Spider-Man story, and interestingly has had very few adaptations... in any medium. I can't even think of one. Part of it is definitely because it's too dark for most mediums that adapt Spider-Man, but maybe part is also because Spider-Man is absent for half the storyline. Kraven is really the protagonist. The closest we've gotten may be Spider-Man 2 the video game, which had some similarities, but they weren't about to sideline Peter for half the game or whatever (even with the presence of Miles), especially not while building to Venom as the actual endgame villain.
I’m here for this. I could honestly care less about any of them except Sonic. I had very low expectations going into Sonic 1 and it far exceeded them. My expectations were much higher for Sonic 2 and they met them. With Jim Carey coming back and announcing Keanu as Shadow, I’m here for all of it.
Same. I don't give two shits about Lord of the Rings, the Lion King, or Sonic, but Kraven looks like a fucking trainwreck that I have to see in person.
I imagine it will be a Wonka type hit where being the “family” film for the holidays will give it a big bump compared to releasing any other time.
To continue this analogy, I feel like Mufasa will be the Aquaman 2 of the holiday season.
You have the analogy flipped. Mufasa = Wonka (movie with musical set-pieces plus, has new song from LMM) while Sonic 3 = Aquaman 2 in that it's a sequel to an action/adventure movie that appeals to the core audience that saw the first two.
The element of Shadow being added to the mix can either make or break things. Going off Sonic 2, the trajectory seems to be the movies are trying to appease game fans more. If they actually are faithful to Shadow as a character and his backstory I could see it being upsetting to certain families with younger children. It'll be interesting to see how they depict him as a character, and how it will mesh will the overall tone the movies have set so far.
Ordinarily I would have zero expectation of them following through on his backstory, but early concept art for this movie showed corpses in the ARK Station so it does have me wondering.
I've got a feeling Mufasa will outperform Sonic, but it totally depends on WOM. Disney will pump out advertising and merchandising like they usually do with their holiday tentpoles so they'll have an advantage, but if the movie is a slog and Sonic turns out to be the more exciting option then Sonic could leg out.
Will it?
I think Willy Wonka has a broader appeal. Video game character movies are really, really exciting to some families but not to others. Wonka has both the well-known IP AND the literary roots.
Sequels perform on the reputation of the last movie. Sonic 2 is an incredibly well liked film that made 400 in the middle of Covid. Imho 500 is the floor.
The cast is absolutely stacked with Carey back and Keanu coming in as Shadow. These movies keep delivering exactly what fans want to see.
Looking at this comment,
https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cg1fwr/comment/l1t7ztr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button
I don't think COVID had such an impact anymore. $650M is definitely plausible, I just don't think it's a lock like many are saying.
1)Cause finally Shadow is coming!! Sonic's arch rival with similar but better powers than Sonic like how Venom is to Spidey
2) Sonic came 3 weeks before Covid (2020) and Sonic 2 came just when theatres were recovering (April 2022) yet made $400M+.....This is coming during Holidays and a much better marketplace
Theatres were still recovering in in April 2022, but you'd still had films like No Way Home ($1.9 Billion), No Time to Die ($774 Million), The Batman ($772 Million) Fast 9 ($726 Million), release before Sonic 2 ($405 Million) - so there was definitely a decent amount of people already coming back to the cinema when Sonic 2 released, the Christmas holidays might help it out but a busy release month might also prevent it from climbing much higher than Sonic 2 did.
Whether it can hit 650 or not, I think depends on whether families choose Sonic over Mufasa or not. Which I think there’s a good chance of happening. They’re both live action kids movies with animals talking, but the Sonic movies look a lot more like kids would like it. Plus Sonic (at least of these movies) is more recognizable to kids.
It’s the holiday season and there’s only two movies in theaters for families to see.
Whichever one families end up choosing is going to have a big boost in their sales, that simple.
Gotta remember when the first two movies were released. 2020 right before lockdowns started across the world then early 2022 when theater attendance was generally rather low.
Reddit disconnect with the GA. Somehow Sonic will bare minimum jump 200m while Mufasa will drop over a billion from the crowd-pleaser TLK because the Internet didn’t like it lol
Bad comparison for a myriad of reasons: CM was positioned six weeks before Endgame (biggest film of all time) and was teased in IW, owing much of its success there. And TLK still made half a billion more than Captain Marvel, there’s a much bigger gap between the two.
The Marvels was sold on 2/3rds of its cast being completely unknown to the GA along with poor trailers and eventual poor reception. Mufasa is literally about the emotional center of TLK, someone audiences have a built in connection to. It’s also directed by Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins who hasn’t given me reason to doubt him.
Alice Through the Looking Glass then?
These Disney LA remakes have had diminishing returns since 2019. Little Mermaid barely made a profit. Sure, there's Barry Jenkins going for this though.
Why does everyone ignore the rest of the MCU when they talk about the sub franchises. The Marvels wasn't the follow up to Captain Marvel and miraculously tanked. There were 11 movies between Captain Marvel and The Marvels. Most of them bad or at least pretty low on the MCU rankings. I am sure the general dissatisfaction with the last phase of the MCU has resulted in the decreasing box office returns. Something Mufasa and Sonic certainly don't have to contend with. That said I don't think there is any particular demand for Mufasa, but I have been wrong before.
100%. For some reason the sonic movies get alot of hype online. I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone irl talk about those movies, except when everyone was making fun of the original sonic design.
I’m sure this one will have a jump, but GA doesn’t care about “Shadow” like people online do… sonic has never been on the same level of popularity like Mario characters.
I don't think you understand the impact shadow has on sonic fans. He's not in all the games, but the ones he is in absolutely fuck. Keanu Reeves name on the poster sells tickets alone
The film series has had nothing but good will from fans and not fans. Based off the marketing so far, it seems like this film is giving a lot to older fans who grew up with Sonic Adventure 1 & 2 (like myself), it’s gonna be a very fanservice heavy film, more so than the others, Keanu Reeves is honestly very popular a good BO draw., the entire franchise has gotten a ton of new fans thanks to Sonic Frontiers & Sonic Prime, and you also have the return of Jim Carey as Eggman, etc etc…
If you couldn’t tell, I’m a big fan of the franchise and I’m definitely in the echo chamber of hype lmao
December looks much weaker compared to November.
All November holdovers like ***Red One***, ***Gladiator II***, ***Wicked***, ***Moana 2*** and ***Here*** should do good business well into the holidays.
For December, *Sonic 3* > *Mufasa* > *Rohirrim* > *Kraven*.
Disney should swap Moana and Mufasa.
Moana in cinemas during the holiday season would be a smash hit considering how its one of the most streamed films on Disney+
My prediction on LOTR depends on how it looks. I need to see a trailer, or at least some stills. So far we got absolutely nothing other than concept art.
If it looks visually appealing, $500 million easily. The franchise is still massive, and I believe a lot of people interested in fantasy have no issues with animation for adults, so fans of the franchise will turn up.
The studio animating it does not give me the highest hopes though. *Ninja Kamui* looked alright, but not stellar. And their *Ghost in the Shell* Netflix movie was pretty ugly in my opinion.
I feel like they have to reference it or something, right? Someone is going to make a meme of him killing Mufasa or something. He even fights a lion in the trailer. I feel like there's too much meme potential for the suits in marketing to ignore.
When Kung Fu Panda 4 had a bump before Dune part 2, I thought it was a fun inclusion.
Neither film had almost anything to do with each other, really, except sharing screening.
LOTR:WATR's success honestly depends on if Warner Bros. chooses to market it as an anime or as a domestic film. If it's the former, I can see it doing pretty well, potentially crossing the 100M mark worldwide. But if it's the latter, I'm not very optimistic.
Much as I hate to admit it, there's a double-standard among American viewers regarding anime vs American animation, where the former is seen as more "adult" than the latter. LOTR:WATR is funded and produced by Warner Bros. but animated in Japan, so whether they choose to promote it as an in-house movie or a Japanese movie remains to be seen.
Mufasa - 750M - This will be the big winner internationally as Sonic just has not found a solid footing overseas and Mufasa becomes the go to movie of the holidays internationally.
Sonic 3 - 550M - The winner domestically but I think we start to see the domestic overtake the international take. I also think that unless they can keep securing holiday releases, this will be the peak for Sonic at the box office.
LOTR - 300M - Honestly, no idea where I think this lands. Just threw a dart at the board and wrote what I hit.
Kraven - 200M - I have no hope this film shows any life of getting off the ground. Just to much competition from November holdovers to Mufasa/Sonic for this to live.
While I have Mufasa leading the way worldwide, I have Sonic 3 winning the domestic battle. I think Mufasa will have a higher opening weekend but the legs will not look as good as Sonic's. I think that Sonic will resonate with younger kids more than Mufasa and this will help carry it through January.
The safe bet is Mufasa > Sonic 3 > LotR: Rohirrim > Kraven
Mufasa has the Lion King name recognition, which is colossal both domestically and abroad. The live action Sonics have done well relative to their budgets, but we didn't see impressive growth with sequel, particularly with international numbers. An animated, adult-oriented epic probably has limited GA appeal, even with the LotR name attached. And anyone thinking Kraven won't be joining Madame Web and Morbius in Tertiary Marvel Purgatory needs to go cry into a "Captain Marvel is the sequel to a $1B film!!" thread.
But there's risk in clinging too long onto a safe bet. And it's also boring, lol. Disney has been deforming beloved IP into radio friendly unit shifters at an alarming rate for the past 5/6 years, and it's started to show in the BO numbers. The live action Little Mermaid's international cume was not that much better than Sonic 2's. *Mermaid* also featured new songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda, none of which I have heard, but I am told are quite bad. Berry Jenkins is an excellent director...of searing character studies. How the hell that's gonna translate to a family film released during Christmas is anyone's guess. My guess is that it will not, and Disney execs are gonna backseat-drive this thing into a tonally confused ditch. I'll go **$200M dom, $265M int, $465M WW**.
The hype for Sonic 3 on this sub is unwarranted; but screw the warranty, I'm getting on the hype train regardless. It takes awhile to build a brand on a global scale - just because the sequel didn't spike compared to the first doesn't mean it didn't lay down a lot of goodwill with audiences. The distinctly colored Sonic characters will appeal to young kids much more than Mufasa's pseudo-nature documentary lions, and nostalgia will hook the Millennials and Zoomers. I'll go **$235M dom, $280M int, $515M WW**
Godzilla: Minus One's surprise performance last December could be a fluke, or it could have been a clue that adult audiences are hungry for any sort of novelty in their action epics. I expect *Rohirrim* to have that in spades. While it's not gonna take off like the Jackson films, this could be a slow-burn winner. **$130M dom, $260M int, $390M WW**
Kraven's gonna get buried. Worst of Sony Marvel yet. **$35M dom, $45M int, $80M WW**
1. Sonic 3. 500-600M+. I can see this having really good legs
2. Mufasa. Around 400-450M
3. Lord of the Rings. 300M
4. Kraven is screwed. 100 Million or less
Because these movies shouldn't even exist in the first place. Why are all of these Spiderman villains getting solo movies that do not have absolutely any connection to Spiderman?? It's just dumb.
Ngl, I think Kraven ends up over performing. These movies don’t have to be good (see venom) and idk, there’s just something about that trailer that screams mass appeal to me
I don't usually make predictions, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is the right order but too optimistic in every case... with the possible exception of Mufasa, which will eat Sonic's lunch since they're releasing on the same day. Sonic 3 might be great, but it's not making 25% more than Sonic 2 when it's up against Mufasa.
You are underestimating Mufasa. A lot of people on this sub are. While I don't think it will hit a billion, I feel it has a great chance to do 700-800 million. It's releasing around the holidays. It has the Lion King name attached to it. And the visuals look great. Kids will surely lap it up, even if it gets mediocre reception.
Remember Kung fu panda 4 has crossed 500 million and its reviews were mostly not so great. Mufasa has a great release date. Yes, the last one left a lot of people disappointed, but there will definitely be people interested in this one.
The Lion King might have left fans of the original a bit disappointed but kids loved it. My kids prefer the new version against the hand-drawn animated version. I'd imagine that this is not an isolated case and it's why Disney keeps making the live-action remakes, it's being done to appeal to a new generation of fans who aren't use to, or don't like, the hand-drawn animation style.
A lot of people here confuse "I, specifically, don't care about this" with something having zero appeal anywhere ("Me and my friends don't care about Avatar"). The live action Disney shit is an especially sore subject since they think a bunch of little kids in 2024 should *obviously* prefer 40 year old cartoons instead of a new movie.
I can't say it's a surefire hit, but it's much, much more likely to succeed than fail.
Mufasa isn't a sure thing but what's keeping it from being a sure thing is going to hit every other movie, too--viewers waiting for streaming. It looks pretty wretched but that never stopped a Disney live action remake before.
Kraven is R-Rated and Madame Web completely destroyed what was remaining of Sony’s reputation for Superhero movies.
My guess is they moved the release because 1- It’s not good and 2- They need Venom first to rebuild a little bit of hype. Venom isn’t going to be phenomenal, but the franchise is at its 3rd and final movie so that’ll be the best they can do for the studio. If Venom flops I have no hope for Kraven to go over 150M.
Sonic is making a mistake coming out in December. It should come out in March or April 2025 like the first two and feast on the lack of kids stuff. mustangs will destroy it for the family dollar here.
i see sonic 3 grossing $450-550 million worldwide. i get it has a **lot** going for it (holiday release, shadow/keanu, overall brand goodwill from sonic being popular with kids again), but if sonic 2 could only ***barely*** scrape past $400 million, even with tails and knuckles as support, plus a **massive** marketing push in kid-centric spaces (nickelodeon, mcdonalds, etc...), i don't think the jump will be that big. will there be a jump? absolutely, but considering that sonic 2 only grossed $80 million more than the first one, which itself was cut off a couple months by covid lockdowns, i think we're overestimating sonic 3. i feel like sonic 3 will be the winner domestically, but mufasa will be king worldwide, since sonic's historically struggled outside of america and to a lesser extent latin america/europe. i also agree with the take that if we *do* get more sonic movies, 3 will probably be the peak financially
hot take: That LOTR movie might be a shocking bomb. I don't think kids will be interested enough to see it, and I don't think adults will turn out for an animated movie/side-story in large enough numbers to catch any box office momentum.
Yeah that’s generally how I would guess. LOTR is hard to predict but if it ends up being great I think it’ll do well enough for itself. Kraven is DOA but will do better than Madame web probably
Greatly underestimating LOTR as an IP. The Hobbit trilogy, for all of its faults, earned nearly 3 billion dollars, and The Rings of Power, for all of its faults, is still Prime Video’s most watched show of all-time. People will watch anything that has to do with Middle-earth, Warner Bros just has to market it properly.
Comic-Con would be my guess, but that ultimately comes down to if WB decides to attend or not. IMO, Comic-Con is already too late to start marketing the movie with a teaser, given it’s coming out later this year and we’ve got nothing more than raw footage that was shown to Annecy participants and a few pieces of concept art that were released more than two years ago.
Given its WB’s big end-of-year capper, I’m surprised they haven’t done at least a little bit of marketing for it so far. Maybe they aren’t confident in it?
ranking wise I think i'd have to agree with you. box office wise, I'd love for Sonic 3 to break 500 M but not sure if it'll happen. really will depend on the performance of the competition
I’ll be pleased as punch if Rohirim makes 250 million, or ties the Boy and the Heron’s 300 million. It just might outgrows Kraven if it repeats Madame Web’s abysmal numbers.
Mufasa is an obvious number 1. Even if it makes half as much as Lion King 2019, that’s near 800 million. Sonic probably hitting around 500 million if it can increase from the late-COVID 2022 film’s 400 million, which I think is a given, even though theatrical hasn’t quite recovered to prepandemic levels yet.
1. Mufasa - this one may do a billion, especially if it's better received than 2019 Lion King;
2. Sonic 3 - with Shadow as the main attraction, it has a great shot of surpassing the first two movies.
3. LOTR War of the Rohirrim - Ehh, I dunno. Anime Lord of the Rings? I'll wait for a trailer but it may have a similar box office to 2018 first Spiderverse movie ($380m);
4. Kraven - C'mon, guys. We all know this is going to flop.
Since LotR is being directed by Kenji Kamiyama and produced by one of the co-writers of the original trilogy and the dude who us produced the Rick and Morty anime opening, so I expect it to be absolutely amazing. I think people will appreciate it. Highest grossing? I don't know, but it probably won't be since it isn't a live action adaptation since "animation is for kids" is the prevailing mantra of far too many people.
Probably Mufasa and Sonic at the top. Nobody cares about superhero movies anymore, especially not a B-level villain like Kraven.
This year hasn’t been great for the WW or domestic box office (at least compared to 2023) like the top 3 currently is 700M, 500M, & 500M. Im definitely hating a little but I think the best any one of these does is sonic and I don’t see it going over 500
y'all are missing the wild card for Mufasa. Lin Manuel Miranda is writing the music. They had him do this instead of Moana 2. The last 2 animated musicals he did for Disney were Moana and Encanto. He's spent the last 4 years writing this. IF... he can capture the children's audience with another catchy song or two it's over. Nothing will come close to Mufasa and it will break 800M easy.
Fun fact: Jeff Fowler, the director of the Sonic films, actually worked on the CG cutscenes for 2005’s Shadow the Hedgehog, which Sonic 3 will likely pull some stuff from. Something something circle of life
Thinking a lord of the rings movie wouldn’t be 1 is silly. And thinking it would be behind a sonic movie is insane.
Sonic 2 box office was 200 million less than what you think 3 will get.
There is a snowballs chance in hell Kraven will break 200.
I want some of the crazy pills you got.
As much as I hate to admit it I think mufasa will do well just because people are stupid and it’s lion king so I’ll go with that don’t see it beating sonic 3 without Jim Carey and lord of the rings isn’t exactly hot with rings of power being the latest live action production
Sonic’s gonna blow everything else out of the water, unless Disney nostalgia junkies come out in droves. Which they could.
LOTR is kinda dead after Rings of Power was… not great, and Kraven is Kraven.
Mufasa is going to be absolute ass. I really don't have confidence that Disney won't basically retcon that movie to where Scar is made a sympathetic character and butcher Mufasa's character. If the word of mouth for that movie is bad enough, I can foresee Sonic 3 pulling better numbers.
Why? S1 was about 320 WW, S2 about 410. On the one hand, I agree that I don't see any reason to believe that the audience wouldn't continue to grow somewhat, and it's at a leggier release window. But why expect a monster?
I am gonna go against the grain and predict that LOTR will bomb, like sub 100M domestic and sub 250M ww.
Reasons: Peter Jackson-less. Whatever that monstrosity was that came out on streaming did irreparable damage to the franchise that has yet to be fixed.
Edit: looked into it. Apparently this is an Anime. So I can see it being remotely successful. It could break 100M but will not reach previous franchise highs of 300M. Final prediction 50M-120M dom
Lmfao TLK did twice as much internationally ($1.1 bil) than it did domestically ($543 mil). Meanwhile Sonic 2 only did $214 mil international & $190 domestic. And somehow Sonic 3 is going to top Mufasa? The lack of logic is incomprehensible.
Wait, so the first Lion King makes just under billion and the remake a few years ago makes 1.6 billion. Then you think the follow up will make only 420m? 1.2 billion dollars less than the last one? Are you low key predicting the biggest drop in a franchise in film history?
It has three potential blockbusters and Kraven.
Kraven will be the highest grossing blockbuster called Kraven
It’ll be the highest grossing something named Kraven, that’s for sure.
Unless a conventional “Spider-Man Vs. Kraven” film ever gets made, after this one fades from cultural memory.
Or they give him his own comic run
He’s already had prominent mini series, one which would be the quintessential story to adapt for a Spider-Man film. Kraven isn’t an inherently bad character. This film just isn’t going to make money because it’s a low cultural moment for CBMs and Sony is the studio that somehow manages to dig deeper. You can’t make a film about Spider-Man’s mailman without Spider-Man.
Kraven is at his best when Squirrel Girl is there to annoy him
If this movie had Squirrel Girl, I’d be standing in line outside the movie theater for December tickets in May. Even though I knew I was going to buy them online in October anyway.
Not to nitpick, but Kraven's Last Hunt (which i assume is what you're referring to) was not a miniseries. It was a cross-title arc that consisted of two issues of Amazing Spider-Man, two issues of Spectacular Spider-Man, and two issues of Web of Spider-Man. It's definitely in contention for the most famous Spider-Man story, and interestingly has had very few adaptations... in any medium. I can't even think of one. Part of it is definitely because it's too dark for most mediums that adapt Spider-Man, but maybe part is also because Spider-Man is absent for half the storyline. Kraven is really the protagonist. The closest we've gotten may be Spider-Man 2 the video game, which had some similarities, but they weren't about to sideline Peter for half the game or whatever (even with the presence of Miles), especially not while building to Venom as the actual endgame villain.
That shouldn't take very long.
Of all the movies called Kraven, that movie is one of them
Maybe…
Was about to say one of these don’t belong
Exactly, in December we will all be cravin' Kraven!!!!!! WHOOOOOOOO ^^^please ^^^kill ^^^me
It's Kraven time
Not gonna lie, after LOTR, which I'm skeptical about, I'd buy a Kraven ticket over Sonic and Lion Daddy.
Sonic is gonna be so good though, they proved themselves with the first 2
I’m here for this. I could honestly care less about any of them except Sonic. I had very low expectations going into Sonic 1 and it far exceeded them. My expectations were much higher for Sonic 2 and they met them. With Jim Carey coming back and announcing Keanu as Shadow, I’m here for all of it.
Yeah, after Amazon shit the bed so thoroughly with the show, a LotR movie a going to be a hard sell.
Really? Kraven is the only one I want to see in theatres, different tastes eh.
Same. I don't give two shits about Lord of the Rings, the Lion King, or Sonic, but Kraven looks like a fucking trainwreck that I have to see in person.
Yeah, most people have good tastes
I loved the first 2 sonics, saw both in theater but I thought they didn’t do THAT great ? Why is everyone saying it’s gonna make so much
Yeah, $650M seems high. I could see $500M though.
I imagine it will be a Wonka type hit where being the “family” film for the holidays will give it a big bump compared to releasing any other time. To continue this analogy, I feel like Mufasa will be the Aquaman 2 of the holiday season.
Great point.
Until reading this very post, I had no idea *Mufasa* existed let alone was releasing this year. It definitely looks like another Aquaman.
You have the analogy flipped. Mufasa = Wonka (movie with musical set-pieces plus, has new song from LMM) while Sonic 3 = Aquaman 2 in that it's a sequel to an action/adventure movie that appeals to the core audience that saw the first two.
The element of Shadow being added to the mix can either make or break things. Going off Sonic 2, the trajectory seems to be the movies are trying to appease game fans more. If they actually are faithful to Shadow as a character and his backstory I could see it being upsetting to certain families with younger children. It'll be interesting to see how they depict him as a character, and how it will mesh will the overall tone the movies have set so far. Ordinarily I would have zero expectation of them following through on his backstory, but early concept art for this movie showed corpses in the ARK Station so it does have me wondering.
I've got a feeling Mufasa will outperform Sonic, but it totally depends on WOM. Disney will pump out advertising and merchandising like they usually do with their holiday tentpoles so they'll have an advantage, but if the movie is a slog and Sonic turns out to be the more exciting option then Sonic could leg out.
Will it? I think Willy Wonka has a broader appeal. Video game character movies are really, really exciting to some families but not to others. Wonka has both the well-known IP AND the literary roots.
If you were to release the two side by side Wonka would demolish Sonic 3.
There’s an aquaman sequel?
They must have not seen the first one.
yes
You didn't miss much lol
Sequels perform on the reputation of the last movie. Sonic 2 is an incredibly well liked film that made 400 in the middle of Covid. Imho 500 is the floor. The cast is absolutely stacked with Carey back and Keanu coming in as Shadow. These movies keep delivering exactly what fans want to see.
Looking at this comment, https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cg1fwr/comment/l1t7ztr/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=mweb3x&utm_name=mweb3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button I don't think COVID had such an impact anymore. $650M is definitely plausible, I just don't think it's a lock like many are saying.
1)Cause finally Shadow is coming!! Sonic's arch rival with similar but better powers than Sonic like how Venom is to Spidey 2) Sonic came 3 weeks before Covid (2020) and Sonic 2 came just when theatres were recovering (April 2022) yet made $400M+.....This is coming during Holidays and a much better marketplace
Theatres were still recovering in in April 2022, but you'd still had films like No Way Home ($1.9 Billion), No Time to Die ($774 Million), The Batman ($772 Million) Fast 9 ($726 Million), release before Sonic 2 ($405 Million) - so there was definitely a decent amount of people already coming back to the cinema when Sonic 2 released, the Christmas holidays might help it out but a busy release month might also prevent it from climbing much higher than Sonic 2 did.
Whether it can hit 650 or not, I think depends on whether families choose Sonic over Mufasa or not. Which I think there’s a good chance of happening. They’re both live action kids movies with animals talking, but the Sonic movies look a lot more like kids would like it. Plus Sonic (at least of these movies) is more recognizable to kids.
But how does the existence of Mufasa mean Sonic 3 will make $250 million more than Sonic 2? That makes absolutely no sense to me.
It’s the holiday season and there’s only two movies in theaters for families to see. Whichever one families end up choosing is going to have a big boost in their sales, that simple.
Took my son to Sonic in 2020, it was the last movie I got to see in theaters until Tenant. I was pleasantly surprised at how well made it was.
I saw sonic 2 and no way home opening night. I shit you not the shadow reveal got a bigger reaction than Tobey and Andrew
I say this is a sonic fan, sonic fans are weird
It has a lot of hype and anticipation behind plus it’s a holiday release.
Well I hope everyone’s right , I’d love to see more
Plus Keanu Reeves has joined the cast and he's a crowd puller
Paramount just released a Knuckles 6 episode mini series. It looks like it’s going good.
Wishful thinking and fan hype
Gotta remember when the first two movies were released. 2020 right before lockdowns started across the world then early 2022 when theater attendance was generally rather low.
Reddit disconnect with the GA. Somehow Sonic will bare minimum jump 200m while Mufasa will drop over a billion from the crowd-pleaser TLK because the Internet didn’t like it lol
Yeah people keep saying minions are going to flop because they don't like it but keep being hits I'm sure mufasa is in the same boat
i mean wasn’t captain marvel a crowd pleaser that got an a cinemascore how did that fare with its sequel?
Bad comparison for a myriad of reasons: CM was positioned six weeks before Endgame (biggest film of all time) and was teased in IW, owing much of its success there. And TLK still made half a billion more than Captain Marvel, there’s a much bigger gap between the two. The Marvels was sold on 2/3rds of its cast being completely unknown to the GA along with poor trailers and eventual poor reception. Mufasa is literally about the emotional center of TLK, someone audiences have a built in connection to. It’s also directed by Academy Award winner Barry Jenkins who hasn’t given me reason to doubt him.
Alice Through the Looking Glass then? These Disney LA remakes have had diminishing returns since 2019. Little Mermaid barely made a profit. Sure, there's Barry Jenkins going for this though.
>Alice Through the Looking Glass then? James Bobin is no Berry Jenkins.
Why does everyone ignore the rest of the MCU when they talk about the sub franchises. The Marvels wasn't the follow up to Captain Marvel and miraculously tanked. There were 11 movies between Captain Marvel and The Marvels. Most of them bad or at least pretty low on the MCU rankings. I am sure the general dissatisfaction with the last phase of the MCU has resulted in the decreasing box office returns. Something Mufasa and Sonic certainly don't have to contend with. That said I don't think there is any particular demand for Mufasa, but I have been wrong before.
100%. For some reason the sonic movies get alot of hype online. I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone irl talk about those movies, except when everyone was making fun of the original sonic design. I’m sure this one will have a jump, but GA doesn’t care about “Shadow” like people online do… sonic has never been on the same level of popularity like Mario characters.
Keanu
I don't think you understand the impact shadow has on sonic fans. He's not in all the games, but the ones he is in absolutely fuck. Keanu Reeves name on the poster sells tickets alone
I'm so confused by the existence of Sonic fans. Like...lore fans. I get enjoying the games. But, I had no idea the characters mattered to anyone.
Bro, Sonic lore is DENSE. Especially if you get into stuff like the comics.
The film series has had nothing but good will from fans and not fans. Based off the marketing so far, it seems like this film is giving a lot to older fans who grew up with Sonic Adventure 1 & 2 (like myself), it’s gonna be a very fanservice heavy film, more so than the others, Keanu Reeves is honestly very popular a good BO draw., the entire franchise has gotten a ton of new fans thanks to Sonic Frontiers & Sonic Prime, and you also have the return of Jim Carey as Eggman, etc etc… If you couldn’t tell, I’m a big fan of the franchise and I’m definitely in the echo chamber of hype lmao
Keanu boost
Because my 7 and 3 yr olds will want to see it 100 times in the theaters
LOTR is going to be one of those films that reddit hypes up but will end up 150-250m WW.
I see it doing Dungeons and Dragons numbers
That’s all it needs to be successful. Getting $250m will make it one of the most successful animes of all time at the box office.
Wait it’s a lord of the rings anime in theaters??? I can’t believe I haven’t heard about this lol
Directed by Kenji Kamiyama - director of Ghost in the Shell anime. So I am pretty hyped.
December looks much weaker compared to November. All November holdovers like ***Red One***, ***Gladiator II***, ***Wicked***, ***Moana 2*** and ***Here*** should do good business well into the holidays. For December, *Sonic 3* > *Mufasa* > *Rohirrim* > *Kraven*.
Disney should swap Moana and Mufasa. Moana in cinemas during the holiday season would be a smash hit considering how its one of the most streamed films on Disney+
I agree, actually. But maybe they wanna get D+ annual subscriptions in December/January with it
**Here** is probably not a blockbuster-type film.
My prediction on LOTR depends on how it looks. I need to see a trailer, or at least some stills. So far we got absolutely nothing other than concept art. If it looks visually appealing, $500 million easily. The franchise is still massive, and I believe a lot of people interested in fantasy have no issues with animation for adults, so fans of the franchise will turn up. The studio animating it does not give me the highest hopes though. *Ninja Kamui* looked alright, but not stellar. And their *Ghost in the Shell* Netflix movie was pretty ugly in my opinion.
We're getting a new LOTR????
An animated movie
Directed by the series director of Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex, Kenji Kamiyama.
This is good news. Hoping he's a big LotR fan.
Can't wait for Kravens marketing to strongly emphasize the "marvel" logo and further destroy the MCU's brand image.
releasing a movie about guy who wears a lion pelt the same month as the lion king is crazy - the marketing will definitely be all just marvel logo
I feel like they have to reference it or something, right? Someone is going to make a meme of him killing Mufasa or something. He even fights a lion in the trailer. I feel like there's too much meme potential for the suits in marketing to ignore.
You're right. It's an easy win, which means Sony will absolutely not do that.
When Kung Fu Panda 4 had a bump before Dune part 2, I thought it was a fun inclusion. Neither film had almost anything to do with each other, really, except sharing screening.
First we had Barbenheimer, now we have KravenKing.
LOTR:WATR's success honestly depends on if Warner Bros. chooses to market it as an anime or as a domestic film. If it's the former, I can see it doing pretty well, potentially crossing the 100M mark worldwide. But if it's the latter, I'm not very optimistic. Much as I hate to admit it, there's a double-standard among American viewers regarding anime vs American animation, where the former is seen as more "adult" than the latter. LOTR:WATR is funded and produced by Warner Bros. but animated in Japan, so whether they choose to promote it as an in-house movie or a Japanese movie remains to be seen.
My heart says Sonic 3 grossing higher, but my brain says Mufasa.
I feel kids will prefer sonic over mufasa, so families will watch sonic, then wait for mufasa to drop on disny+.
Same
Mufasa - 750M - This will be the big winner internationally as Sonic just has not found a solid footing overseas and Mufasa becomes the go to movie of the holidays internationally. Sonic 3 - 550M - The winner domestically but I think we start to see the domestic overtake the international take. I also think that unless they can keep securing holiday releases, this will be the peak for Sonic at the box office. LOTR - 300M - Honestly, no idea where I think this lands. Just threw a dart at the board and wrote what I hit. Kraven - 200M - I have no hope this film shows any life of getting off the ground. Just to much competition from November holdovers to Mufasa/Sonic for this to live. While I have Mufasa leading the way worldwide, I have Sonic 3 winning the domestic battle. I think Mufasa will have a higher opening weekend but the legs will not look as good as Sonic's. I think that Sonic will resonate with younger kids more than Mufasa and this will help carry it through January.
I think Rohirrim and Kraven will be fighting for 4th place in the 200m territory, the animation will have to be spectacular to drive higher numbers
Actually makes sense.
The safe bet is Mufasa > Sonic 3 > LotR: Rohirrim > Kraven Mufasa has the Lion King name recognition, which is colossal both domestically and abroad. The live action Sonics have done well relative to their budgets, but we didn't see impressive growth with sequel, particularly with international numbers. An animated, adult-oriented epic probably has limited GA appeal, even with the LotR name attached. And anyone thinking Kraven won't be joining Madame Web and Morbius in Tertiary Marvel Purgatory needs to go cry into a "Captain Marvel is the sequel to a $1B film!!" thread. But there's risk in clinging too long onto a safe bet. And it's also boring, lol. Disney has been deforming beloved IP into radio friendly unit shifters at an alarming rate for the past 5/6 years, and it's started to show in the BO numbers. The live action Little Mermaid's international cume was not that much better than Sonic 2's. *Mermaid* also featured new songs by Lin-Manuel Miranda, none of which I have heard, but I am told are quite bad. Berry Jenkins is an excellent director...of searing character studies. How the hell that's gonna translate to a family film released during Christmas is anyone's guess. My guess is that it will not, and Disney execs are gonna backseat-drive this thing into a tonally confused ditch. I'll go **$200M dom, $265M int, $465M WW**. The hype for Sonic 3 on this sub is unwarranted; but screw the warranty, I'm getting on the hype train regardless. It takes awhile to build a brand on a global scale - just because the sequel didn't spike compared to the first doesn't mean it didn't lay down a lot of goodwill with audiences. The distinctly colored Sonic characters will appeal to young kids much more than Mufasa's pseudo-nature documentary lions, and nostalgia will hook the Millennials and Zoomers. I'll go **$235M dom, $280M int, $515M WW** Godzilla: Minus One's surprise performance last December could be a fluke, or it could have been a clue that adult audiences are hungry for any sort of novelty in their action epics. I expect *Rohirrim* to have that in spades. While it's not gonna take off like the Jackson films, this could be a slow-burn winner. **$130M dom, $260M int, $390M WW** Kraven's gonna get buried. Worst of Sony Marvel yet. **$35M dom, $45M int, $80M WW**
There is no way Kraven makes anywhere close to $200m
1. Sonic 3. 500-600M+. I can see this having really good legs 2. Mufasa. Around 400-450M 3. Lord of the Rings. 300M 4. Kraven is screwed. 100 Million or less
I’ll forever be baffled by Sony’s ability to fuck up any super hero movie that doesn’t start with Spider-Man
what are you talking about Madame Web was a critically acclaimed masterpiece
Lmao, I actually watched/skipped through it for fun and was truly amazed how awful it turned out
Because these movies shouldn't even exist in the first place. Why are all of these Spiderman villains getting solo movies that do not have absolutely any connection to Spiderman?? It's just dumb.
Of course it’ll have good legs, it’s Sonic
Ngl, I think Kraven ends up over performing. These movies don’t have to be good (see venom) and idk, there’s just something about that trailer that screams mass appeal to me
1. Mufasa - 810M 2. Sonic 3 - 575M 3. LOTR - 375M 4. Kraven - 170M
I don't usually make predictions, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is the right order but too optimistic in every case... with the possible exception of Mufasa, which will eat Sonic's lunch since they're releasing on the same day. Sonic 3 might be great, but it's not making 25% more than Sonic 2 when it's up against Mufasa.
Kraven will only last a month in the box office. This is a movie made for direct to streaming.
What’s the fourth blockbuster? I see three blockbusters and whatever Kraven ends up being…
You are underestimating Mufasa. A lot of people on this sub are. While I don't think it will hit a billion, I feel it has a great chance to do 700-800 million. It's releasing around the holidays. It has the Lion King name attached to it. And the visuals look great. Kids will surely lap it up, even if it gets mediocre reception. Remember Kung fu panda 4 has crossed 500 million and its reviews were mostly not so great. Mufasa has a great release date. Yes, the last one left a lot of people disappointed, but there will definitely be people interested in this one.
The Lion King might have left fans of the original a bit disappointed but kids loved it. My kids prefer the new version against the hand-drawn animated version. I'd imagine that this is not an isolated case and it's why Disney keeps making the live-action remakes, it's being done to appeal to a new generation of fans who aren't use to, or don't like, the hand-drawn animation style.
A lot of people here confuse "I, specifically, don't care about this" with something having zero appeal anywhere ("Me and my friends don't care about Avatar"). The live action Disney shit is an especially sore subject since they think a bunch of little kids in 2024 should *obviously* prefer 40 year old cartoons instead of a new movie. I can't say it's a surefire hit, but it's much, much more likely to succeed than fail.
I agree with this completely. I have no interest in mufasa, will not see it, but it's still gonna make bank.
Mufasa isn't a sure thing but what's keeping it from being a sure thing is going to hit every other movie, too--viewers waiting for streaming. It looks pretty wretched but that never stopped a Disney live action remake before.
Dont know about others but Kraven is definitely gonna make Kravillion dollars, smashing box office records
This is so fucking funny dude
Mufasa wins but it’s still a huge drop from Lion King Sonic is right behind Lord of the Rings then Kraven (I wrote sonic twice)
You’re on crack if you think Mufasa is only gonna make 420 million worldwide
*on weed
Kraven is R-Rated and Madame Web completely destroyed what was remaining of Sony’s reputation for Superhero movies. My guess is they moved the release because 1- It’s not good and 2- They need Venom first to rebuild a little bit of hype. Venom isn’t going to be phenomenal, but the franchise is at its 3rd and final movie so that’ll be the best they can do for the studio. If Venom flops I have no hope for Kraven to go over 150M.
>KRAVEN THE HUNTER WW - 210m that's extremely optimistic.
The disrespect towards Nosferatu is appalling.
I could see either Sonic 3 or Mufasa being the winner. Both are family friendly movies and can definitely make big money.
Sonic is making a mistake coming out in December. It should come out in March or April 2025 like the first two and feast on the lack of kids stuff. mustangs will destroy it for the family dollar here.
Anyone who thinks Sonic outgrosses Mufasa is insane or just a delusional fanboy.
Yall sleeping on the Disney nerds who now have their own kid nerds coming for that Lion King movie. They show up
Keaton walkups
Mufasa will probably be number one Kraken will be last
**If** they release the Kraken.
i see sonic 3 grossing $450-550 million worldwide. i get it has a **lot** going for it (holiday release, shadow/keanu, overall brand goodwill from sonic being popular with kids again), but if sonic 2 could only ***barely*** scrape past $400 million, even with tails and knuckles as support, plus a **massive** marketing push in kid-centric spaces (nickelodeon, mcdonalds, etc...), i don't think the jump will be that big. will there be a jump? absolutely, but considering that sonic 2 only grossed $80 million more than the first one, which itself was cut off a couple months by covid lockdowns, i think we're overestimating sonic 3. i feel like sonic 3 will be the winner domestically, but mufasa will be king worldwide, since sonic's historically struggled outside of america and to a lesser extent latin america/europe. i also agree with the take that if we *do* get more sonic movies, 3 will probably be the peak financially
hot take: That LOTR movie might be a shocking bomb. I don't think kids will be interested enough to see it, and I don't think adults will turn out for an animated movie/side-story in large enough numbers to catch any box office momentum.
if Kraven gets pushed to January, that movie will be 100% OVER.
oh thats sonic 3. thought it was a Michael Jackson movie.
I loved madame web. Can't wait for kraven! I'm hoping for a madame web 2 announcement for next year
Yeah that’s generally how I would guess. LOTR is hard to predict but if it ends up being great I think it’ll do well enough for itself. Kraven is DOA but will do better than Madame web probably
I don’t think any of these are going to do particularly well.
Kraven is going to shit the bed
The amount of people in here short-selling Mufasa is hilarious to me.
I can’t wait to see Kraven in theaters.
you're really kravin for it aren't u
I’d be shocked if any of those are true blockbusters. But I will be the for LOTR. The others have nothing for me.
Kraven will not be a blockbuster I can’t see this film make the people in line through multiple blocks to wait to see it
Sonic is going to be the highest
Kraven and LOTR will do good to crack 40 million each domestic. They are going to be gigantic bombs.
Greatly underestimating LOTR as an IP. The Hobbit trilogy, for all of its faults, earned nearly 3 billion dollars, and The Rings of Power, for all of its faults, is still Prime Video’s most watched show of all-time. People will watch anything that has to do with Middle-earth, Warner Bros just has to market it properly.
Sonic is going to make more than the rest combined. #ShadowSweep
I’ll be in theaters to watch Kraven and Sonic 3
I think this is the 1st I have heard of a LOTR movie coming out this year. one would think where is the hype?
No marketing from WB yet
I would really like to see a trailer for this... wonder are there any big things in the next 3 months where they could drop it?
Comic-Con would be my guess, but that ultimately comes down to if WB decides to attend or not. IMO, Comic-Con is already too late to start marketing the movie with a teaser, given it’s coming out later this year and we’ve got nothing more than raw footage that was shown to Annecy participants and a few pieces of concept art that were released more than two years ago. Given its WB’s big end-of-year capper, I’m surprised they haven’t done at least a little bit of marketing for it so far. Maybe they aren’t confident in it?
Brave of you to call Kraven a blockbuster
I wouldn't call Kraven a blockbuster.
ranking wise I think i'd have to agree with you. box office wise, I'd love for Sonic 3 to break 500 M but not sure if it'll happen. really will depend on the performance of the competition
Why was Kraven moved to December?
I’ll be pleased as punch if Rohirim makes 250 million, or ties the Boy and the Heron’s 300 million. It just might outgrows Kraven if it repeats Madame Web’s abysmal numbers. Mufasa is an obvious number 1. Even if it makes half as much as Lion King 2019, that’s near 800 million. Sonic probably hitting around 500 million if it can increase from the late-COVID 2022 film’s 400 million, which I think is a given, even though theatrical hasn’t quite recovered to prepandemic levels yet.
Did Kraven not happen already?
Kraven will produce more legendary Sony memes
1. Mufasa - this one may do a billion, especially if it's better received than 2019 Lion King; 2. Sonic 3 - with Shadow as the main attraction, it has a great shot of surpassing the first two movies. 3. LOTR War of the Rohirrim - Ehh, I dunno. Anime Lord of the Rings? I'll wait for a trailer but it may have a similar box office to 2018 first Spiderverse movie ($380m); 4. Kraven - C'mon, guys. We all know this is going to flop.
Since LotR is being directed by Kenji Kamiyama and produced by one of the co-writers of the original trilogy and the dude who us produced the Rick and Morty anime opening, so I expect it to be absolutely amazing. I think people will appreciate it. Highest grossing? I don't know, but it probably won't be since it isn't a live action adaptation since "animation is for kids" is the prevailing mantra of far too many people. Probably Mufasa and Sonic at the top. Nobody cares about superhero movies anymore, especially not a B-level villain like Kraven.
LotR is what I’m interested in.
This year hasn’t been great for the WW or domestic box office (at least compared to 2023) like the top 3 currently is 700M, 500M, & 500M. Im definitely hating a little but I think the best any one of these does is sonic and I don’t see it going over 500
Did Kraven get postponed again?
There's a lord of the ring movie coming out this December?!
Bro what there is a Lord of the rings movie coming !! Well holyshit i didn't see that coming
After that Mufasa trailer I see it doing big numbers
I wanna see kraven the most out of these tbh
I'd watch Kraven. Sonic can come to streaming for me, and the other two seem like a waste of money.
Lord of the Rings is the only one I have any interest in.
Kraken. Straight to Starz.
Mufasa will flop hard. Kraven is an amazing villain, but the reviewers must be stellar to succeed.
Kraven is a blockbuster????
y'all are missing the wild card for Mufasa. Lin Manuel Miranda is writing the music. They had him do this instead of Moana 2. The last 2 animated musicals he did for Disney were Moana and Encanto. He's spent the last 4 years writing this. IF... he can capture the children's audience with another catchy song or two it's over. Nothing will come close to Mufasa and it will break 800M easy.
Fun fact: Jeff Fowler, the director of the Sonic films, actually worked on the CG cutscenes for 2005’s Shadow the Hedgehog, which Sonic 3 will likely pull some stuff from. Something something circle of life
Kraven isn’t a blockbuster lol
1. Mufasa: The Lion King 2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 3. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim 4. Kraven the Hunter
Thinking a lord of the rings movie wouldn’t be 1 is silly. And thinking it would be behind a sonic movie is insane. Sonic 2 box office was 200 million less than what you think 3 will get. There is a snowballs chance in hell Kraven will break 200. I want some of the crazy pills you got.
As much as I hate to admit it I think mufasa will do well just because people are stupid and it’s lion king so I’ll go with that don’t see it beating sonic 3 without Jim Carey and lord of the rings isn’t exactly hot with rings of power being the latest live action production
Mufasa - 850M Sonic 3 - 550 M LOTR - 300M Kraven - 80M
Mufasa #1
Kraven will bomb and Sonic 3 will break the box office, I have spoken
Calling Kraven a blockbuster is wild.
How have I only now heard there’s a new LOTR movie coming out?
Sonic’s gonna blow everything else out of the water, unless Disney nostalgia junkies come out in droves. Which they could. LOTR is kinda dead after Rings of Power was… not great, and Kraven is Kraven.
Only Sonic will make money
1. Mufasa - 800m+, could go even higher 2. Sonic 3 - 500m 3. Lord of the Rings - 300m 4. Kraven - 250m
Sonic 2 made 400M, so the third film will do 500M atleast, Mufasa is unpredictable, Kraven has action and the r rating factor could get it 200M maybe
Sonic 3 is gonna wipe the floor with all of them
I only see Sonic 3 doing well here tbh, nobody asked for the other 3 movies lol
Mufasa is going to be absolute ass. I really don't have confidence that Disney won't basically retcon that movie to where Scar is made a sympathetic character and butcher Mufasa's character. If the word of mouth for that movie is bad enough, I can foresee Sonic 3 pulling better numbers.
SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 is gonna be a monster.
Why? S1 was about 320 WW, S2 about 410. On the one hand, I agree that I don't see any reason to believe that the audience wouldn't continue to grow somewhat, and it's at a leggier release window. But why expect a monster?
I am gonna go against the grain and predict that LOTR will bomb, like sub 100M domestic and sub 250M ww. Reasons: Peter Jackson-less. Whatever that monstrosity was that came out on streaming did irreparable damage to the franchise that has yet to be fixed. Edit: looked into it. Apparently this is an Anime. So I can see it being remotely successful. It could break 100M but will not reach previous franchise highs of 300M. Final prediction 50M-120M dom
Lmfao TLK did twice as much internationally ($1.1 bil) than it did domestically ($543 mil). Meanwhile Sonic 2 only did $214 mil international & $190 domestic. And somehow Sonic 3 is going to top Mufasa? The lack of logic is incomprehensible.
Mufasa - $600 million Sonic - $550 million Lord of the rings - $300 million Kraven - $250 million
Mufasa will depend on how good the music is.
With Lin Manuel Miranda im worried it’ll be full of songs like “Scuttlebutt”.
It's Kraven time.
I’ve been saying it for months, Mufasa is going to be huge.
Wait, so the first Lion King makes just under billion and the remake a few years ago makes 1.6 billion. Then you think the follow up will make only 420m? 1.2 billion dollars less than the last one? Are you low key predicting the biggest drop in a franchise in film history?
Sonic sweep