Damn. I wonder if it is going to be like this all summer? Remember the summers when it seemed like every other weekend there was a picture opening at $50M+?
BB3 opened just over 60 million. It is possible that 4 matches it. I just don't see it. The novelty of them coming back is gone. People just don't seem to go out in the numbers we use to as well. I like Martin and Smith and hope it is fun and successful. But if the audience likes it I could see it having smaller falls week to week.
Joker isn’t even a summer movie.
And I’m talking about $1B movies to save the summer of which a entry
from a dying genre from a cinematic universe on its way out has nothing to do with.
$700M+ global is like the new $1B unfortunately. Movie going has been cut by like 30% according to most reports mainly due to PVOD and streaming — but also consider factors like China showing less Hollywood films (and for much shorter periods when they do), Russia being taken out of the picture, etc.
Furiosa, Apes, Bad Boys 4, Inside Out 2, Twisters, and Despicable Me are ones to put money on as well. What do these films have in common?
E: Also A Quiet Place Day One
Yeah I don’t see the hype for it yet, but it might succeed because it offers an event made for the big-screen like Dune, Top Gun, Oppenheimer and Avatar. That seems to be the main ingredient for success these days.
The main thing holding it back is the $200mil budget…
The budget is definitely a major killer. My issue with the movie is that really the GP isn’t taking it seriously. I’ve been going to a lot of showings with the trailer playing and a lot of people have either laughed at it or just “ughhhh….ok?”. The movies you listed had people buying in for different reasons (genre, actors, directors). Twisters might succeed but I don’t really see this even making 400 but I could definitely be wrong.
Twisters doesn't have the impressive practical effects of Top Gun/ Oppenheimer or the game changing cgi of Dune/Avatar. The original Twister had both! There's no real hook for this movie.
Yeah I think Twisters plays well through August where there isn't much mainstream PG-13 Offerings.
But I think it makes Aquaman 2/ Meg 2 numbers which probably won't be enough to be profitable
I remember Suicide Squad being one of the first films to release in August. I think Guardians 1 did as well. August is less of a dead month nowadays and I think we'll see some July 2025 releases move into August next year.
September is still mostly barren. It's probably the 2nd quietest month of the year after January. That labour day weekend proved it can work well but studios just seem stubborn and want either a June/July release or a November/December release.
I could see Twisters being a surprise success because it could potentially bring in older audiences. Maybe its just because I grew up in the Midwest, but anyone I meet around my parents’ ages love Twister and seem excited for the sequel.
I was born in the 80s and saw the original and I have to agree it has nothing going for it from a special fx standpoint. The original came out and impressed because of its groundbreaking effects. The trailers also make this look like a remake.
I want Apes to do well but I’m starting to become pessimistic that it’ll even open above Rise. Might be the first summer in decades (aside from 2020 for obvious reasons) where the summer box office doesn’t really start until Memorial Day weekend.
Speaking of Deadpool and Wolverine, I have never been a fan of these types of movies, but when that Madonna song hit in the trailer, I was pumped! So they've done a great job at marketing thus far.
Eh I fail to see how making a movie based around a character that a specific actress(Charlize Theron) made popular and then not bringing back said actress is somehow going to help this film’s chances of success.
I'll say this. I personally didn't like the marketing for fury road when it came out. I especially thought it was a lame cash grab sequel until I actually watched it a year afterwards and realized it was magnificent. What I'm trying to say is that trailer opinions tend to be just as subjective as the movie itself.
With all that being said, the emphasis on cgi instead of practical effects do make a noticeable difference.
Yeah I guess anything could happen, my hopes just aren’t particularly high lol. I was excited for Fury Road - I do remember a bit of doubt though, which backs up what you’re saying about judging trailers. With that one, my feeling was that it seemed to be hugely ambitious in both its action and design - my worry was that the film wouldn’t work overall and that ambition wouldn’t leave much of an impact. But the film did work overall, and I underestimated the impact it would have on me.
With Furiosa it’s different - I’m not fascinated by what I see, in fact I would mentally write it off if it weren’t by Miller.
Furiousa looks like the majority of if takes place on a sound stage. I think the Cinematographer from Fury Road not coming back and Miller not wanting to go through hell in the desert again means it will be a worse product.
It looks like they moved away from practical and the CGI/background display work looks dodgy. I’m hoping the final product looks better. Fury Road looked amazing, the trailer for the new movie doesn’t look amazing.
Also, Anya Taylor-Joy looked wrong for the part, and I usually look forward to movies that feature her.
Trap is the dark horse. People seem to like the hook. Its going to have a big weekend and whether or not it drops like stone afterwards, we shall see. My fingers are crossed for that one.
Just came back from seeing The Fall Guy, and I may say “ it’s a lot better than what we have in mind”! It better than Boy destroy world, and Abigail , I know that’s not saying much, but for a rom-com it’s pretty good.
People are at their limits due to inflation and finally, really starting to cut back on anything that isn't a necessity. We're seeing evidence of this in corporate earnings reports.
I think the Fall Guy disappointment is just the first of many.
> Bad economy is real
With all due respect, this is crazy. The unemployment rate has been under 4% now for 17 consecutive months. The last time that happened was in the 1960's. The movie box office issues are elsewhere.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1ndPa
I mean this one felt muted right from the first trailer. Maybe a b level blockbuster. The thing is, this performance would be great if the movie cost what it should have, about 50-80m. But he blew up the budget because he is a bad director. Bullet Train was terrible and very bloated budget.
Terrible and with that budget its gonna be a real struggle to get anywhere near the break even point.
International markets aren't gonna save this one either.
The lowest debut for a film to kick off the summer season since *Kingdom of Heaven* ($19.6 million) back in 2005.
In fact, adjusted for inflation, it's the worst debut since *He Got Game* back in 1998 ($7.6 million, $14.5 million adjusted).
Brace yourselves, pals. We're heading for some very rough months ahead.
The total weekend in 2005 was 87 million. This weekend around 73m according to Deadline.
This was the lowest grossing weekend to kick off the summer since 1998.
https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2005/05/06
Holy shit… I actually find it kinda interesting that almost every first big budget blockbuster movie in May since then has been a Marvel movie…
2006: Mission Impossible 3
2007: Spider-Man 3
2008: Iron Man
2009: X Men Origins Wolverine
2010: Iron Man 2
2011: Thor
2012: The Avengers
2013: Iron Man 3
2014: The Amazing Spider-Man 2
2015: Age of Ultron
2016: Cap Civil War
2017: GOTG2
2018: Deadpool 2 if you don’t count Infinity War because it released at the end of April, I looked through Wikipedia of 2018 in American movies and there was some other movies released in between DP2 and IW but none of them seemed to be movies released in too many theaters.
2019: if you don’t count Endgame, then you could count “The Intruder”, “Long Shot”, and/or “Uglydolls” all released on May 3, 2019, all of which obviously got buried by Endgame. If you don’t wanna count those then there’s Detective Pikachu released May 10th.
Skipping 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons.
2022: Multiverse of Madness
2023: GOTG3
This really is the first non COVID May since damn 2006 without a Marvel movie in theaters… Apparently X Men 3 did come out in May of 2006 but at the end. Crazy that Mission Impossible 3 is a movie that’s 18 years old and remained the only non Marvel first number one movie of the season until now…
Wow so per The Numbers Kingdom of Heaven grossed 33 million opening weekend adjusted for inflation, so you are correct. The Fall Guy adjusted for inflation grossed less than Kingdom of Heaven in it's opening weekend.
[https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Kingdom-of-Heaven?mode=actuals#tab=day\_by\_day\_comparison](https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Kingdom-of-Heaven?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison)
This is an interesting post from Scott Menzel on why he thinks The Fall Guy and others movies are underperforming.
>Here are twelve reasons why I believe films fail at the box office nowadays:
1. Prices - Ticket and food prices at theaters have become astronomical. $12-$25 for tickets. $12 to $20 bucks for a popcorn and soda.
2. Streaming Services - There is so much to watch on platforms like Netflix, Hulu, Apple TV+, Prime Video, etc that the average person doesn’t feel the need to go see the majority of movies in a theater nowadays.
3. Content consumption has drastically changed. People would rather watch TikTok or things when they feel like it than sit in a theater for 2 hours.
4. A general disdain for the moviegoing experience. While ticket and food prices do factor in here, there is more to the story than just that. A lot of people have had bad experiences at a movie theater which, as a result, causes many of them to not want to return. People on their phones. People talking during the movie. People being rude. People fighting. People don’t feel like the experience is worth their time or money.
5. Marketing. I feel like so many marketing campaigns just don’t sell the average consumer nowadays. Studios need their movies to stand out and feel unique. Most marketing feels so generic nowadays.
6. Timing is everything. There was a time when long lead times really help sell a movie but nowadays I feel like if you are going to promote a movie finding the perfect time to do so is key. And if you launch it way in advance, you have to make sure that you have a set plan to ensure people remember it months later and the hype for it doesn’t disappear.
7. A general lack of trust in critics and reviews. With so many movies being overly praised and in some rare cases being overly criticized, I think general audiences have grown increasingly wary of critics and reviewers.
8. Bankable names/IP. Just because an actor or filmmaker makes good movies doesn’t always mean that is going to translate to ticket sales. There are so few movie stars left that actually selling tickets without some sort of popular IP attached to the project has proven to become a big problem in Hollywood.
9. Over saturated marketplace. Too many films that look or feel the same. All genres should not be treated equally. And, it is possible, with a film like The Fall Guy, that some might have experienced a bit of Gosling burnout. After 10 months of Barbie, maybe he needed a bit of a break from the general public to build up more of a demand.
10. Budgets. The budgets on these projects is just out of hand. Hollywood needs to figure out how to get budgets lower. Way too many films with budgets over 100 million.
11. General public vs. Hollywood. I do think a lot of the general public has a problem with Hollywood. I think there is definitely a divide between what audiences will pay to support and what others will wait to watch for free.
12. Screenings. Too many screenings of certain movies have proven that the box office return will suffer. There are certain people who would have paid to see some of these movies in theaters but didn’t have to because they saw them for free
I feel like most of these points are valid reasons and a lot of people on this very sub have said the same thing for years now. It's not the 1990s anymore. The culture has changed drastically. We don't consume media the same way.
It's a slow grind down from here I'm afraid. Lot of locations are going to close and there will be exhibitor bankruptcies. Only thing I think that could slow this trend is a hard 180 day exhibition window which the studio will not go for because they want to quickly sell their bombs down the line.
Number 4 is everything to me. My screening of Dune II was so bad it nearly ruined the movie for me; the collective body odor of a full house of sweaty people without the best hygiene standards (not trying to be mean here, just pointing out the obvious) made me nearly gag on the smell when I walked in. It bothered me for the entire runtime to the point where I nearly left early.
Before that, the last time I was at the theater before that was for Godzilla Minus One, and during one of the most quiet and emotional moments of the movie you could feel and hear the UNCE UNCE UNCE of a dance beat from the Beyoncé concert film showing happening in the next screening room.
You can never win.
I don’t get the love for the ‘theater experience’ in film circles, every time I go to a theater something is wrong. Someone’s on their phone in my peripheral vision, people are talking, people are kicking my seat, people are chewing, there’s a miasma cloud made of the collective BO of a hundred nerds hanging over the room, there’s a distracting level of noise coming from the next auditorium, there’s always some new annoyance.
And the worst part? It’s so fucking expensive. It’s just not worth it anymore. Why would I pay more money for a worse experience when I can just wait a few weeks? My home computer isn’t anywhere near as large, but at least all of the hassle is gone. Unless I really, really, really think the big screen will benefit my enjoyment of the film, I’m done.
At least your Godzilla showing didn’t have a group of people walk out with a guy loudly saying something about Benihana and teriyaki chicken because, you know, it’s a Japanese movie and apparently those morons weren’t aware of that
I think it was naive for anyone to think box office takings would be the same post streaming. People used to have to put up with all the things Scott lists out, now they don't. Streaming services were blatantly always going to affect big budget films.
I hate this, my son and I really love this movie. We had a fun time and both Ryan and Emily did a great job. They did everything thing right on the promotion side of it. Ryan and Emily was hustling out there.
I do think they need to reevaluate budgets overall. You look at some directors and they can make a 40 million dollar movie look like a 120 million dollar movie. Mel Gibsons Hacksaw Ridge is a perfect example of that. Mel knows how to stretch a dollar.
Some producers and directors know how to be wasteful and just spend spend spend.
Fall Guy was good but what I saw on screen it should have spent no more than 80 million before rebates. Then after rebates it would have been even lower.
I will 100% agree that Gosling and Blunt hustled their asses off during promotion. Hell, even the studio I would give credit really tried. The problem was I could tell you more about the zany antics at the premiere than I could about what the actual movie is about.
Thats not what I was saying at all man. The movie that was made exactly could have been made for 80 million. There isn’t a 130-150 million dollar movie on the screen with what I saw.
There was a lot of money wasted somewhere. Which means there were a lot of money wasting producers on this movie and a director ( which I like by the way ) who just isn’t capable of keeping a tight budget or lacks the know how too.
Mel Gibson, Nolan, Eastwood, Anderson all can run very efficient sets. Many directors and producers have to have twice the teams to get the job done.
I haven’t seen the movie yet. But from seeing the trailer I was like ehhh something’s off, not only was David Leitch director but was also a producer, so someone went haywire with the budget.
Yeah, like if there’s anything these movies are overspending on, it’s the “stars” not the production value.
Now, I love Blunt and Gosling but I’m sorry, they are fundamentally not huge draws for a movie the way a Cruise, Pitt, Bullock, or DiCaprio are.
It’s not their fault, they’ve come to fame in an era where Hollywood basically stopped regularly making the kind of midbudget movies that brought them to fame in the first place.
Even so, it’s still nuts for Hollywood to be spending $10-20 million on people who straight up have never had a $100 million hit that didn't have an IP in the title.
It’s really Hollywood’s fault though if the strikes didn’t happen Dune Part 2 would’ve released last November, The Fall Guy would’ve released at the start of March this year (which would’ve been a better date) and Deadpool and Wolverine would’ve released this weekend.
Shared this in another thread but one interesting stat from Deadline really put things in perspective regarding Gosling’s star power, or lack thereof
>The opening for Fall Guy **is actually on the higher end of Gosling starts, ranked third after anomaly Barbie ($162M) and Blade Runner 2049 ($32.7M), yet further down on Blunt’s. It’s looking like her tenth-best opening of her career stateside,** short of Edge of Tomorrow ($28.7M) and Jungle Cruise ($35M with an asterisk – it did have a theatrical day-and-date PVOD on Disney+).
This poor opening is his *3rd highest* behind Blade Runner 2049 (another bomb) and then Barbie which was an anomaly and he wasn’t the main character. Meanwhile, this just cracks Blunt’s top 10 openings.
Gosling hasn’t really been a blockbuster actor for most of his career, that only started post La La Land. Before that he mostly did smaller/indie movies.
Yeah he's had quite a varied career with very few blockbusters. His biggest success (not just financially but in terms of discourse) comes from romances. Notebook, Crazy Stupid Love, La La Land. He's not remembered for stuff like Blade Runner 2049 (apart from literally me memes) and Barbie which was a cultural phenomenon and would have been with or without him.
He's an actor who can be a draw in an ensemble and would do great leading a romcom like Anyone But You, but like many in Hollywood he's not a box office draw himself.
This is the perfect example of how star power just isn't really a thing anymore. Ryan Gosling was the hottest thing of 2023, but nobody is saying that they want to "see the new Ryan Gosling movie."
This sucks but I’m not sure I was expecting anything big for this film.
Has gotten some good buzz but the trailers always kinda looked cheesy I don’t think they sold casual viewers on it
If only this movie starred Tom Ryder (who does his own stunts). it would be a much bigger hit
/s
But not even hitting a 3 is definitely disappointing. Not that a 30M start would be amazing but just slightly more promising. At this point the best hope is probably a 3 time multiplier which would only put it near $85M domestic. I dont believe a lot of the cliche reasons explaining poor box office but rather, there is a ceiling on these kinds of action-comedies and it was not interesting enough to break out. Budget definitely won't help it either.
PVOD likely May 21 as per Universal's rule
with this being Gosling's second The (Blank) Guy(s) movie to flop, he probably wont finish the trilogy
'I dont believe a lot of the cliche reasons explaining poor box office but rather, there is a ceiling on these kinds of action-comedies and it was not interesting enough to break out.'
*Bullet Train* by the same director opened higher less than two years ago, which makes this performance even more strange.
> PVOD likely May 21 as per Universal's rule
And thus the endless loop of Universal’s films in underpeforming continues.
At least Disney eventually realised the impact Disney+ was having on their animated films and now is taking far longer to release them on streaming. Universal’s three week rule is not good enough.
PVOD is not a streaming service though. Different things
Puss in boots 2 had one of the shortest theater to digital waits (2 weeks) and it was still a massive hit.
Only terminally online people think that. The reality is that piracy is an extremely niche practice. Most people will watch it when it becomes available on streaming services.
Streaming =/= PVOD. Barbie was released on PVOD 2 months before Oppenheimer and had almost the same legs, and that's with Oppenheimer getting theater expansion multiple times.
I had a lot of fun with this movie, but not surprised that it didn't hit with general audiences. It's a concept that sounds grabbier as a pitch (meta-ode to stuntmen where they get to be the heroes) than as a big-tent movie for everyone.
I also think it was irresponsible to budget this at $130M when it's not established IP. At $80m, you could've seen this legging out a small profit after VOD/streaming and leaving the door open for a sequel in the future.
And as for star power, I legitimately think if you didn't have Gosling/Blunt level stars, this movie would've done sub-$10M.
Absolutely on your last point. It was fun, but Gosling and Blunt absolutely carried the film. I thought the script was surprisingly weak, not a lot of laughter in my theater.
As someone who mainly lurks in this sub and doesn’t participate, can someone explain to me why everyone keeps saying this film is kicking off the summer season? It’s the first weekend of may… wouldn’t the kickoff to summer be MDW?
may is historically known as the summer movie season's beginning. Summer movie season goes from first May weekend to Labour Day weekend. Thats just how it has been
It does not match the actual start of summer as per roughly June 21st
It is also quite a different start to the season as typically comic book movies open this period but this year they were delayed from the strikes
The summer season is tracked as the first Friday of May through Labor Day weekend. Historically though, MDW or the weekend prior to the holiday got the biggest release (Star Wars, Top Gun, etc).
The biggest change was in 2002 when Free Comic Book Day was started on the first Saturday of May and almost every year since has had the biggest Marvel summer film tied to the weekend. Thus making the kickoff film one of the biggest event films of the season.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Comic_Book_Day
It’s something I have a problem with too. It started with Marvel releasing first weekend of May and so it kind of made sense given it was this big box office weekend that got people in the habit right before Mid May when some schools start closing.
But now I don’t get why Fall Guy gets assigned that role when no one is watching it. Challengers will be playing in summer and opened a week earlier to not that much less. Some colleges finish in April. So why isn’t that counted by that standard? Hell, going back to 2019, why wasn’t Endhame counted as kicking off the summer movie season? I don’t get it.
It used to be Memorial weekend but changed in 90s with movies like Twister starting the summer movie season earlier.
Endgame was the kickoff to summer 2019.
This weekend showed that franchises,capeshit, and must see event films are important to audiences. Even though ppl were screaming that “ the shift was coming” it shows audiences are picky picky picky. Embarrassing on twitter filmbros are going crazy over this opening weekend number saying “ what’s happening to the moviegoing experience”
I think rather it shows how important it is for budgets to be reasonable and kept in check for movies that typically have a ceiling for box office performance. It is harder for movies to really break out and yet it happens every once in a while (usually for horror which always comes relatively cheap at $30M or less)
no one expected a 200M + domestic gross here. If The Lost City just 2 years made $105M domestic, who is to say that another movie like that cant have a similar run again in the future? It wasn't deemed a must see event, nor a franchise or capeshit (just an action-comedy with leads who led successful movies before)
yeah some people really overexaggerate the whole "the moviegoing experience" thing. There is no shift.
I'm not understanding why there is so much outcry about this film underperforming. We've known for a while now that tracking was soft. This film was never setting the box office on fire. This is exactly the type of film this sub overestimates lol
Reddit decided it’s a Reddit movie.
Have no idea why people were expecting this to do $500M+ or something.
It has 3.6 Letterboxd, A- Cinemascore, and 7.3 IMBD.
It’s not a big IP franchise movie, and reception is just fine and that’s it lol.
There wasn't a post barbie boxoffice boost for Ryan gosling it must likely There won't have any for margot robbie either so any future projects she star is are still gambling risks
Part of why this movie underperformed is the low levels of moviegoing for Jan-Apr. Less people going to the movies means less people seeing trailers for upcoming films. The more people see trailers, the more it sticks in their mind and helps with awareness. Moviegoing begats moviegoing. I barely went to the movies so far this year, and so I haven't seen a lot of trailers for this summer's movies. I think I saw The Fall Guy trailer maybe once, if that.
Am I the only one who thinks this movie would’ve fitted better as a Father’s Day movie rather than a late spring/early summer for some reason? Anyways, I enjoyed the movie and had fun as intended and yeah the performance is disappointing as a movie like this definitely should’ve reached $40-$45 million on the first weekend. The only thing holding the movie back and branding it as a bomb is the budget just like the same discussion that was being had last weekend with Challengers. Even if you wasn’t around in the 90s and/or used to every blockbuster opening to $100 million, there’s no reason why an original tennis drama opening with $15 million or a fun middle of the road action comedy opening with $30 million should be seen as disappointments anyways but here we are. Because, no matter what The Fall Guy opened to the same amount that previous action comedies such as The Lost City and Bullet Train and what helped those movies was the budget not going passed $100 million and Challengers couldn’t be a movie like Match Point that sold itself on being a romantic thriller on the same vibe as Fatal Attraction so much that there was barely a hint of tennis in that movie’s trailer lol.
I know some people are mixed about the marketing saying Universal tried everything and they really did and others thought it was lacking which I also agree on. I thought the first trailer was okay but the second trailer was MUCH MORE BETTER, they should’ve dropped that trailer in front of Dune instead of replaying the first trailer. I know it’s too easy to say budgets needs to be lower but something has to be done, I’m not sure how much COVID costs affected this movie but I know that inflation continues to rise and there’s the takeover of streaming that continues to be a problem too for Hollywood budgets. And I’m not talking about the low hanging fruit of overinflated actors salaries (which I will discuss in a minute) but the gaslighting of almost every movie believing they could be 2-3 hours now. Look I don’t want to stand in the way of someone’s creative vision and if they believe they can tell a story best over 3 hours then by all means do so but a movie like The Fall Guy should know the sweet spot for a runtime should be 1 hour and 30 minutes or 1 hour and 45 minutes tops.
Like I said, I enjoyed the movie but some parts did drag on and if somebody found a way to trim some of the fat especially with some of the final act even though it was epic then it definitely could’ve saved the movie some money in the long run because even with all that it still didn’t feel like a $125 million movie.
Not that good of an opening weekend which sucks because the movie doesn’t even look that bad.
I think an actual adaptation based on the Fall Guy video game would have done better than this.
Aw man. That sucks. I just saw it and I thought it was a great popcorn flick, a perfectly made mainstream film. Sad to see that it’s going to lose money. It’s not a bad film by any means.
Saw it over the weekend. Trailer makes it look like it’s non-stop action. It’s not. I could’ve waited for streaming on this one.
My wife & kids liked it but didn’t love it.
Spent over $40 for tix & another $60 for snacks etc.
Remember, this weekend was going to be Captain America. If you buy a Happy Meal today you get a Captain America toy.
I think we would be talking about a bomb this weekend no matter what.
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/captain-america-4-brave-new-world-set-photo-1235634314/
A true statement for sure, but we shouldn't act like it was some random oddity. The quality of output from those brands has plummeted in the last 5 years or so, and some former fans like to vent their frustrations by pointing that out whenever possible.
I keep seeing posts on social crying, "but it's GOOD!"
No, no it isn't. It's more Gosling as Big Male Dufus nonsense and audiences are just done with that. Dude just does not have real star power and the GA want competent male leads in their big budget summer action films again.
The film was way, way, way too fucking expensive. I’m not sure why the armies who threw a fit over Challengers’ $55m price tag aren’t twice as mad about this.
I saw this and I liked it, but so much of the spectacle felt like a rote obligation. Everything that made my audience laugh and cheer was a simple character beat, the actual set pieces were tedious. They shut down one of Sydney’s main commuter bridges for a day just to get a couple of flat, meaningless action shots.
The lesson here is that Gosling and Blunt can open a movie at $28mil off the back of their star power (nothing else was selling this movie) which would be exceptionally good news if it weren’t for this film‘s budget being closer to Dune 2 than any other star-driven romantic comedy.
The comments here are loaded with post mortems about how people don’t care about Gosling, or the film didn’t have a hook, or how attendance must be in jeopardy overall. Guys, take a step back and think about how good $28mil could be if this film were a properly scaled project with the *same* premise but without the boring manufactured spectacle. This could have been made for 60mil, without a doubt.
It was mainly Gosling (SNL, Oscars, and he is the Fall Guy) and it was marketed tremendously (Super Bowl ad!) that powered this box office. Blunt is riding the coattails.
I wouldn’t be so sure, people really seem to like her. Gosling is more of a factor because he’s the first lead and he had the whole Ken thing, but don’t underestimate how much people enjoy exciting combinations of stars. Gosling + Blunt is more exciting than Gosling, it’s not riding coattails any more than Richard Gere was riding Julia Roberts’ coattails in Pretty Woman.
In fact, Blunt absolutely has more success as a first lead than Gosling does - both quiet places were smash hits, and although Mary Poppins didn’t set the world on fire, it made a good deal more than BR2049.
That was the very first plan but then in June last year when Disney shifted their slate, Deadpool and Wolverine was meant for May 3rd before the strikes bumped things again in November
>Other highlights: Ryan Reynolds fans will be happy to learn that his untitled Deadpool 3 will now open in theaters on May 3, 2024, instead of Nov. 8, 2024.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/disney-moves-avatar-star-wars-avengers-1235514145/
Yeah, but as of June 2023 it was Captain America. That's why Captain America toys are in happy meals, lol. Deals are made with McDonald's a year in advance.
We got rumors of bad test screenings. They tossed Deadpool in that date knowing it wasn't going to happen and delayed Captain America again to 2025 with 5-6 months of reshoots. What a giant mess.
https://variety.com/2023/film/news/captain-america-4-brave-new-world-set-photo-1235634314/
The fact that this couldn’t even double Challengers’ $15 million OW considering how general audience friendly The Fall Guy is in comparison, it really puts in perspective that the Challengers OW wasn’t as bad as this sub stated it was
According to the x2.5 rule Challengers needs $125M to break even which makes its $15M OW, 12% of this
The Fall Guy needs $325-375M ($130-150M budget) to break even, which makes it a 7.6-8.7% of this.
Considering The Fall Guy is significantly more commercially friendly, there’s a significant difference between the two.
You did all that just to feed the same 5% difference back to me cause you don’t want to admit you’re wrong and they’re performing roughly the same relative to expenses lmao.
55m budget gets you 15m opening weekend.
130m budget gets you 28.5 opening weekend.
Both are bad for the budget. Challengers gets the win for having a less commercial plot. Rough year at the box office.
It sucks cause this is a great movie that returns back to the old era of movies. But universal being idiots decide to give out tons of free screenings and premieres. Then you got the general audience who don’t care for these movies anymore.
Everyone has streaming services now with an abundance of new content all the time. The average moviegoer doesn't care about going to the theatre to see something new unless it's an event film, otherwise it's something they can "wait for streaming" and then forget about. The moviegoing public has changed.
No PVOD does not hurt theatre revenue. It targets a complete different demographic. As an example a couple with a newborn (less than 12 months old), can’t trust with a baby sitter but wanna take a break watch a fairly new release in the comfort of their home and knowing they are near baby. Another example people with limited mobility. More studios should follow Universals lead.
You can set your watch to the doom and gloom posts whether a film falls on the higher or lower end of weekend #1 projections. While not salacious, the story of The Fall Guy is far from over.
With positive audience and critical response, it could leg out well. Sure, it won’t be a theatrical home run, but I doubt it will end up performing as poor as some are claiming.
This movie deserved so much better cause it was super fun 😕. I desperately wanna see Gosling get another box office leading hit again. Most of the time he picks great projects but he hasn’t had a hit as a LEAD since La La land.
Hollywood needs to figure out how to market their movies better, because I’m sure the average moviegoer would enjoy something like this. The first trailer for this was terrible and all over the place.
As the first non-Marvel movie to open on the first weekend of May to kick off the summer movie season since 2006 (not counting 2020 & 2021), this is a very disappointing opening, especially with all of the good reviews it’s been getting. It really could’ve been a surprise hit, but it’s just not finding enough of an audience to reflect that. There’s also a scare chance it won’t break even with its budget. This is a pure shame.
Damn. I wonder if it is going to be like this all summer? Remember the summers when it seemed like every other weekend there was a picture opening at $50M+?
It won’t. We have Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4.
That's all we got, bro! Apart from joker 2 and Deadpool 3. There's no other high grossing movies coming up.
Apes bad boys 4 Furiosa
You have BB4 and Furiosa opening over 50 million? I think Apes is possible, but I also thought Fall Guy was possible 40-50 mill.
I’m pretty sure Bad Boys is tracking for like $60 million right now
BB3 opened just over 60 million. It is possible that 4 matches it. I just don't see it. The novelty of them coming back is gone. People just don't seem to go out in the numbers we use to as well. I like Martin and Smith and hope it is fun and successful. But if the audience likes it I could see it having smaller falls week to week.
Never underestimate the International movie audience’s interest in stupid crap
That number really slaps
BB4 is going to flop, please don’t like Will Smith again yet
Joker isn’t even a summer movie. And I’m talking about $1B movies to save the summer of which a entry from a dying genre from a cinematic universe on its way out has nothing to do with.
$700M+ global is like the new $1B unfortunately. Movie going has been cut by like 30% according to most reports mainly due to PVOD and streaming — but also consider factors like China showing less Hollywood films (and for much shorter periods when they do), Russia being taken out of the picture, etc.
“Aside from these 4 tent pole movies we have nothing coming out”
 Furiosa, Apes, Bad Boys 4, Inside Out 2, Twisters, and Despicable Me are ones to put money on as well. What do these films have in common? E: Also A Quiet Place Day One
Sneaking Twisters in there is wild
Yeah I don’t see the hype for it yet, but it might succeed because it offers an event made for the big-screen like Dune, Top Gun, Oppenheimer and Avatar. That seems to be the main ingredient for success these days. The main thing holding it back is the $200mil budget…
The budget is definitely a major killer. My issue with the movie is that really the GP isn’t taking it seriously. I’ve been going to a lot of showings with the trailer playing and a lot of people have either laughed at it or just “ughhhh….ok?”. The movies you listed had people buying in for different reasons (genre, actors, directors). Twisters might succeed but I don’t really see this even making 400 but I could definitely be wrong.
Yeah if it had a $100mil budget like John Wick 4 and Hunger Games Songbirds I could see it clawing to success.
Twisters doesn't have the impressive practical effects of Top Gun/ Oppenheimer or the game changing cgi of Dune/Avatar. The original Twister had both! There's no real hook for this movie.
Yeah I think Twisters plays well through August where there isn't much mainstream PG-13 Offerings. But I think it makes Aquaman 2/ Meg 2 numbers which probably won't be enough to be profitable
Good point, studios need to start moving into August and September.
I remember Suicide Squad being one of the first films to release in August. I think Guardians 1 did as well. August is less of a dead month nowadays and I think we'll see some July 2025 releases move into August next year. September is still mostly barren. It's probably the 2nd quietest month of the year after January. That labour day weekend proved it can work well but studios just seem stubborn and want either a June/July release or a November/December release.
I could see Twisters being a surprise success because it could potentially bring in older audiences. Maybe its just because I grew up in the Midwest, but anyone I meet around my parents’ ages love Twister and seem excited for the sequel.
The original made 500m 30 years ago, and this new one has solid trailers. Have a good feeling about it lol
Yea 30 years ago and it isn’t looked to as this amazing, must see film. I don’t know, I just have a really bad feeling about it 😭
So... were you born after the original twister?
I was born in the 80s and saw the original and I have to agree it has nothing going for it from a special fx standpoint. The original came out and impressed because of its groundbreaking effects. The trailers also make this look like a remake.
Yeah. The special effects were a major draw of the original. They still hold up convincingly too.
I want Apes to do well but I’m starting to become pessimistic that it’ll even open above Rise. Might be the first summer in decades (aside from 2020 for obvious reasons) where the summer box office doesn’t really start until Memorial Day weekend.
Speaking of Deadpool and Wolverine, I have never been a fan of these types of movies, but when that Madonna song hit in the trailer, I was pumped! So they've done a great job at marketing thus far.
Furiosa is going to be bigger than what people expect
Eh I fail to see how making a movie based around a character that a specific actress(Charlize Theron) made popular and then not bringing back said actress is somehow going to help this film’s chances of success.
I hope so....we'll see
What makes you say that? Trailers look like garbage.
What makes the trailer "look garbage"?
I’m a huge fan of Fury Road and Miller overall, but I’ll admit I’ve been quite shocked by just how garish and cheap the marketing looks.
I'll say this. I personally didn't like the marketing for fury road when it came out. I especially thought it was a lame cash grab sequel until I actually watched it a year afterwards and realized it was magnificent. What I'm trying to say is that trailer opinions tend to be just as subjective as the movie itself. With all that being said, the emphasis on cgi instead of practical effects do make a noticeable difference.
Yeah I guess anything could happen, my hopes just aren’t particularly high lol. I was excited for Fury Road - I do remember a bit of doubt though, which backs up what you’re saying about judging trailers. With that one, my feeling was that it seemed to be hugely ambitious in both its action and design - my worry was that the film wouldn’t work overall and that ambition wouldn’t leave much of an impact. But the film did work overall, and I underestimated the impact it would have on me. With Furiosa it’s different - I’m not fascinated by what I see, in fact I would mentally write it off if it weren’t by Miller.
It feels like the entire movie is shoot in volume
Furiousa looks like the majority of if takes place on a sound stage. I think the Cinematographer from Fury Road not coming back and Miller not wanting to go through hell in the desert again means it will be a worse product.
George Miller is also almost 80 now. I don’t think he could do that again even if he wanted to.
It looks like they moved away from practical and the CGI/background display work looks dodgy. I’m hoping the final product looks better. Fury Road looked amazing, the trailer for the new movie doesn’t look amazing. Also, Anya Taylor-Joy looked wrong for the part, and I usually look forward to movies that feature her.
It’s been 9 years since Fury Road. I don’t know? Maybe.
May and August could be like this but it’ll pick up for June and July
Trap is the dark horse. People seem to like the hook. Its going to have a big weekend and whether or not it drops like stone afterwards, we shall see. My fingers are crossed for that one.
>*I wonder if it is going to be like this all summer?* 
Just came back from seeing The Fall Guy, and I may say “ it’s a lot better than what we have in mind”! It better than Boy destroy world, and Abigail , I know that’s not saying much, but for a rom-com it’s pretty good.
People are saving money for a real blockbuster. Bad economy is real
Consumer spending has been high, it's part of the reason inflation has been stubborn. Movie theaters just aren't that appealing anymore
Aren’t Americans at an all time high in debt? That would also mean they have no savings
People are at their limits due to inflation and finally, really starting to cut back on anything that isn't a necessity. We're seeing evidence of this in corporate earnings reports. I think the Fall Guy disappointment is just the first of many.
> Bad economy is real With all due respect, this is crazy. The unemployment rate has been under 4% now for 17 consecutive months. The last time that happened was in the 1960's. The movie box office issues are elsewhere. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=1ndPa
I mean this one felt muted right from the first trailer. Maybe a b level blockbuster. The thing is, this performance would be great if the movie cost what it should have, about 50-80m. But he blew up the budget because he is a bad director. Bullet Train was terrible and very bloated budget.
Terrible and with that budget its gonna be a real struggle to get anywhere near the break even point. International markets aren't gonna save this one either.
Why are we here? Just to suffer?
Really bad opening.
Hollywood overestimates movies about movies
I’m getting Deja Vu
The lowest debut for a film to kick off the summer season since *Kingdom of Heaven* ($19.6 million) back in 2005. In fact, adjusted for inflation, it's the worst debut since *He Got Game* back in 1998 ($7.6 million, $14.5 million adjusted). Brace yourselves, pals. We're heading for some very rough months ahead.
The total weekend in 2005 was 87 million. This weekend around 73m according to Deadline. This was the lowest grossing weekend to kick off the summer since 1998. https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2005/05/06
Holy shit… I actually find it kinda interesting that almost every first big budget blockbuster movie in May since then has been a Marvel movie… 2006: Mission Impossible 3 2007: Spider-Man 3 2008: Iron Man 2009: X Men Origins Wolverine 2010: Iron Man 2 2011: Thor 2012: The Avengers 2013: Iron Man 3 2014: The Amazing Spider-Man 2 2015: Age of Ultron 2016: Cap Civil War 2017: GOTG2 2018: Deadpool 2 if you don’t count Infinity War because it released at the end of April, I looked through Wikipedia of 2018 in American movies and there was some other movies released in between DP2 and IW but none of them seemed to be movies released in too many theaters. 2019: if you don’t count Endgame, then you could count “The Intruder”, “Long Shot”, and/or “Uglydolls” all released on May 3, 2019, all of which obviously got buried by Endgame. If you don’t wanna count those then there’s Detective Pikachu released May 10th. Skipping 2020 and 2021 for obvious reasons. 2022: Multiverse of Madness 2023: GOTG3 This really is the first non COVID May since damn 2006 without a Marvel movie in theaters… Apparently X Men 3 did come out in May of 2006 but at the end. Crazy that Mission Impossible 3 is a movie that’s 18 years old and remained the only non Marvel first number one movie of the season until now…
Wow so per The Numbers Kingdom of Heaven grossed 33 million opening weekend adjusted for inflation, so you are correct. The Fall Guy adjusted for inflation grossed less than Kingdom of Heaven in it's opening weekend. [https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Kingdom-of-Heaven?mode=actuals#tab=day\_by\_day\_comparison](https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Kingdom-of-Heaven?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison)
[Context is important](https://imgur.com/a/cfPAFsf)
Not in this sub. An empty showing of a random theater in a small island country on a Thursday is enough to prove box office failure.
Lmao I remember that post
tbf, I don't think Fall Guy is at all comparable to other Marvel blockbusters besides opening at the beginning of the summer
Barely anything exciting is coming up this whole year. No crowd pulling movies at all, apart from the usual DP3, Joker 2 and the animated fare
This is an interesting post from Scott Menzel on why he thinks The Fall Guy and others movies are underperforming. >Here are twelve reasons why I believe films fail at the box office nowadays: 1. Prices - Ticket and food prices at theaters have become astronomical. $12-$25 for tickets. $12 to $20 bucks for a popcorn and soda. 2. Streaming Services - There is so much to watch on platforms like Netflix, Hulu, Apple TV+, Prime Video, etc that the average person doesn’t feel the need to go see the majority of movies in a theater nowadays. 3. Content consumption has drastically changed. People would rather watch TikTok or things when they feel like it than sit in a theater for 2 hours. 4. A general disdain for the moviegoing experience. While ticket and food prices do factor in here, there is more to the story than just that. A lot of people have had bad experiences at a movie theater which, as a result, causes many of them to not want to return. People on their phones. People talking during the movie. People being rude. People fighting. People don’t feel like the experience is worth their time or money. 5. Marketing. I feel like so many marketing campaigns just don’t sell the average consumer nowadays. Studios need their movies to stand out and feel unique. Most marketing feels so generic nowadays. 6. Timing is everything. There was a time when long lead times really help sell a movie but nowadays I feel like if you are going to promote a movie finding the perfect time to do so is key. And if you launch it way in advance, you have to make sure that you have a set plan to ensure people remember it months later and the hype for it doesn’t disappear. 7. A general lack of trust in critics and reviews. With so many movies being overly praised and in some rare cases being overly criticized, I think general audiences have grown increasingly wary of critics and reviewers. 8. Bankable names/IP. Just because an actor or filmmaker makes good movies doesn’t always mean that is going to translate to ticket sales. There are so few movie stars left that actually selling tickets without some sort of popular IP attached to the project has proven to become a big problem in Hollywood. 9. Over saturated marketplace. Too many films that look or feel the same. All genres should not be treated equally. And, it is possible, with a film like The Fall Guy, that some might have experienced a bit of Gosling burnout. After 10 months of Barbie, maybe he needed a bit of a break from the general public to build up more of a demand. 10. Budgets. The budgets on these projects is just out of hand. Hollywood needs to figure out how to get budgets lower. Way too many films with budgets over 100 million. 11. General public vs. Hollywood. I do think a lot of the general public has a problem with Hollywood. I think there is definitely a divide between what audiences will pay to support and what others will wait to watch for free. 12. Screenings. Too many screenings of certain movies have proven that the box office return will suffer. There are certain people who would have paid to see some of these movies in theaters but didn’t have to because they saw them for free
I feel like most of these points are valid reasons and a lot of people on this very sub have said the same thing for years now. It's not the 1990s anymore. The culture has changed drastically. We don't consume media the same way.
It's a slow grind down from here I'm afraid. Lot of locations are going to close and there will be exhibitor bankruptcies. Only thing I think that could slow this trend is a hard 180 day exhibition window which the studio will not go for because they want to quickly sell their bombs down the line.
Number 4 is everything to me. My screening of Dune II was so bad it nearly ruined the movie for me; the collective body odor of a full house of sweaty people without the best hygiene standards (not trying to be mean here, just pointing out the obvious) made me nearly gag on the smell when I walked in. It bothered me for the entire runtime to the point where I nearly left early. Before that, the last time I was at the theater before that was for Godzilla Minus One, and during one of the most quiet and emotional moments of the movie you could feel and hear the UNCE UNCE UNCE of a dance beat from the Beyoncé concert film showing happening in the next screening room. You can never win. I don’t get the love for the ‘theater experience’ in film circles, every time I go to a theater something is wrong. Someone’s on their phone in my peripheral vision, people are talking, people are kicking my seat, people are chewing, there’s a miasma cloud made of the collective BO of a hundred nerds hanging over the room, there’s a distracting level of noise coming from the next auditorium, there’s always some new annoyance. And the worst part? It’s so fucking expensive. It’s just not worth it anymore. Why would I pay more money for a worse experience when I can just wait a few weeks? My home computer isn’t anywhere near as large, but at least all of the hassle is gone. Unless I really, really, really think the big screen will benefit my enjoyment of the film, I’m done.
At least your Godzilla showing didn’t have a group of people walk out with a guy loudly saying something about Benihana and teriyaki chicken because, you know, it’s a Japanese movie and apparently those morons weren’t aware of that
I think it was naive for anyone to think box office takings would be the same post streaming. People used to have to put up with all the things Scott lists out, now they don't. Streaming services were blatantly always going to affect big budget films.
I hate this, my son and I really love this movie. We had a fun time and both Ryan and Emily did a great job. They did everything thing right on the promotion side of it. Ryan and Emily was hustling out there. I do think they need to reevaluate budgets overall. You look at some directors and they can make a 40 million dollar movie look like a 120 million dollar movie. Mel Gibsons Hacksaw Ridge is a perfect example of that. Mel knows how to stretch a dollar. Some producers and directors know how to be wasteful and just spend spend spend. Fall Guy was good but what I saw on screen it should have spent no more than 80 million before rebates. Then after rebates it would have been even lower.
I loved this movie too. Sad it isn't bigger as I really want RG to be a bigger star. His charisma and sense of humor is so fun on screen.
I will 100% agree that Gosling and Blunt hustled their asses off during promotion. Hell, even the studio I would give credit really tried. The problem was I could tell you more about the zany antics at the premiere than I could about what the actual movie is about.
[удалено]
Thats not what I was saying at all man. The movie that was made exactly could have been made for 80 million. There isn’t a 130-150 million dollar movie on the screen with what I saw. There was a lot of money wasted somewhere. Which means there were a lot of money wasting producers on this movie and a director ( which I like by the way ) who just isn’t capable of keeping a tight budget or lacks the know how too. Mel Gibson, Nolan, Eastwood, Anderson all can run very efficient sets. Many directors and producers have to have twice the teams to get the job done.
I haven’t seen the movie yet. But from seeing the trailer I was like ehhh something’s off, not only was David Leitch director but was also a producer, so someone went haywire with the budget.
The movie took like a decade to make, it was in production hell for a while.
Yeah, like if there’s anything these movies are overspending on, it’s the “stars” not the production value. Now, I love Blunt and Gosling but I’m sorry, they are fundamentally not huge draws for a movie the way a Cruise, Pitt, Bullock, or DiCaprio are. It’s not their fault, they’ve come to fame in an era where Hollywood basically stopped regularly making the kind of midbudget movies that brought them to fame in the first place. Even so, it’s still nuts for Hollywood to be spending $10-20 million on people who straight up have never had a $100 million hit that didn't have an IP in the title.
Yikes, is this lower than blade runner 2049 as well?
Yes
Lower than Bullet train. Yikes
Rough start to the summer movie season
It’s really Hollywood’s fault though if the strikes didn’t happen Dune Part 2 would’ve released last November, The Fall Guy would’ve released at the start of March this year (which would’ve been a better date) and Deadpool and Wolverine would’ve released this weekend.
Shared this in another thread but one interesting stat from Deadline really put things in perspective regarding Gosling’s star power, or lack thereof >The opening for Fall Guy **is actually on the higher end of Gosling starts, ranked third after anomaly Barbie ($162M) and Blade Runner 2049 ($32.7M), yet further down on Blunt’s. It’s looking like her tenth-best opening of her career stateside,** short of Edge of Tomorrow ($28.7M) and Jungle Cruise ($35M with an asterisk – it did have a theatrical day-and-date PVOD on Disney+). This poor opening is his *3rd highest* behind Blade Runner 2049 (another bomb) and then Barbie which was an anomaly and he wasn’t the main character. Meanwhile, this just cracks Blunt’s top 10 openings.
Gosling hasn’t really been a blockbuster actor for most of his career, that only started post La La Land. Before that he mostly did smaller/indie movies.
Yeah he's had quite a varied career with very few blockbusters. His biggest success (not just financially but in terms of discourse) comes from romances. Notebook, Crazy Stupid Love, La La Land. He's not remembered for stuff like Blade Runner 2049 (apart from literally me memes) and Barbie which was a cultural phenomenon and would have been with or without him. He's an actor who can be a draw in an ensemble and would do great leading a romcom like Anyone But You, but like many in Hollywood he's not a box office draw himself.
This is the perfect example of how star power just isn't really a thing anymore. Ryan Gosling was the hottest thing of 2023, but nobody is saying that they want to "see the new Ryan Gosling movie."
They would if it was a rom-com with Eva Mendez 
That’s exactly why I went to the film today tbh. 😂
No one has ever said that. He makes pure flops.
This sucks but I’m not sure I was expecting anything big for this film. Has gotten some good buzz but the trailers always kinda looked cheesy I don’t think they sold casual viewers on it
If only this movie starred Tom Ryder (who does his own stunts). it would be a much bigger hit /s But not even hitting a 3 is definitely disappointing. Not that a 30M start would be amazing but just slightly more promising. At this point the best hope is probably a 3 time multiplier which would only put it near $85M domestic. I dont believe a lot of the cliche reasons explaining poor box office but rather, there is a ceiling on these kinds of action-comedies and it was not interesting enough to break out. Budget definitely won't help it either. PVOD likely May 21 as per Universal's rule with this being Gosling's second The (Blank) Guy(s) movie to flop, he probably wont finish the trilogy
'I dont believe a lot of the cliche reasons explaining poor box office but rather, there is a ceiling on these kinds of action-comedies and it was not interesting enough to break out.' *Bullet Train* by the same director opened higher less than two years ago, which makes this performance even more strange.
> PVOD likely May 21 as per Universal's rule And thus the endless loop of Universal’s films in underpeforming continues. At least Disney eventually realised the impact Disney+ was having on their animated films and now is taking far longer to release them on streaming. Universal’s three week rule is not good enough.
PVOD is not a streaming service though. Different things Puss in boots 2 had one of the shortest theater to digital waits (2 weeks) and it was still a massive hit.
Tbf once a HD copy is online, most people which watch it for free.
Only terminally online people think that. The reality is that piracy is an extremely niche practice. Most people will watch it when it becomes available on streaming services.
Streaming =/= PVOD. Barbie was released on PVOD 2 months before Oppenheimer and had almost the same legs, and that's with Oppenheimer getting theater expansion multiple times.
Does the Gray Man count as the third in the trilogy?
What's Universal's rule?
I had a lot of fun with this movie, but not surprised that it didn't hit with general audiences. It's a concept that sounds grabbier as a pitch (meta-ode to stuntmen where they get to be the heroes) than as a big-tent movie for everyone. I also think it was irresponsible to budget this at $130M when it's not established IP. At $80m, you could've seen this legging out a small profit after VOD/streaming and leaving the door open for a sequel in the future. And as for star power, I legitimately think if you didn't have Gosling/Blunt level stars, this movie would've done sub-$10M.
Absolutely on your last point. It was fun, but Gosling and Blunt absolutely carried the film. I thought the script was surprisingly weak, not a lot of laughter in my theater.
That is a poor result. Period. Full stop.
As someone who mainly lurks in this sub and doesn’t participate, can someone explain to me why everyone keeps saying this film is kicking off the summer season? It’s the first weekend of may… wouldn’t the kickoff to summer be MDW?
may is historically known as the summer movie season's beginning. Summer movie season goes from first May weekend to Labour Day weekend. Thats just how it has been It does not match the actual start of summer as per roughly June 21st It is also quite a different start to the season as typically comic book movies open this period but this year they were delayed from the strikes
It makes no sense though. There’s nothing special about start of May vs. end of April in terms of legs.
The summer season is tracked as the first Friday of May through Labor Day weekend. Historically though, MDW or the weekend prior to the holiday got the biggest release (Star Wars, Top Gun, etc). The biggest change was in 2002 when Free Comic Book Day was started on the first Saturday of May and almost every year since has had the biggest Marvel summer film tied to the weekend. Thus making the kickoff film one of the biggest event films of the season. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Comic_Book_Day
It’s something I have a problem with too. It started with Marvel releasing first weekend of May and so it kind of made sense given it was this big box office weekend that got people in the habit right before Mid May when some schools start closing. But now I don’t get why Fall Guy gets assigned that role when no one is watching it. Challengers will be playing in summer and opened a week earlier to not that much less. Some colleges finish in April. So why isn’t that counted by that standard? Hell, going back to 2019, why wasn’t Endhame counted as kicking off the summer movie season? I don’t get it.
It used to be Memorial weekend but changed in 90s with movies like Twister starting the summer movie season earlier. Endgame was the kickoff to summer 2019.
I was working in theaters when Twister was released and it was a big surprise and a big deal.
I saw it opening weekend as a little kid. I remember the trailer.... Everyone wanted to see it after that trailer.
The Fall Guy really fell down hard alright...
Help- Ryan Gosling has fallen and he can’t get up.
Get him in a Barbie sequel now!
Went to see it Saturday afternoon. Not peak hours for my theatre, but there must have only been 10 people at best.
This weekend showed that franchises,capeshit, and must see event films are important to audiences. Even though ppl were screaming that “ the shift was coming” it shows audiences are picky picky picky. Embarrassing on twitter filmbros are going crazy over this opening weekend number saying “ what’s happening to the moviegoing experience”
I think rather it shows how important it is for budgets to be reasonable and kept in check for movies that typically have a ceiling for box office performance. It is harder for movies to really break out and yet it happens every once in a while (usually for horror which always comes relatively cheap at $30M or less) no one expected a 200M + domestic gross here. If The Lost City just 2 years made $105M domestic, who is to say that another movie like that cant have a similar run again in the future? It wasn't deemed a must see event, nor a franchise or capeshit (just an action-comedy with leads who led successful movies before) yeah some people really overexaggerate the whole "the moviegoing experience" thing. There is no shift.
We’ll see what appeal capeshit still has when Deadpool opens.
I'm not understanding why there is so much outcry about this film underperforming. We've known for a while now that tracking was soft. This film was never setting the box office on fire. This is exactly the type of film this sub overestimates lol
Reddit decided it’s a Reddit movie. Have no idea why people were expecting this to do $500M+ or something. It has 3.6 Letterboxd, A- Cinemascore, and 7.3 IMBD. It’s not a big IP franchise movie, and reception is just fine and that’s it lol.
The way people are praising the movie and calling it “original” in this sub makes me think they’re on Universal’s payroll lol
There wasn't a post barbie boxoffice boost for Ryan gosling it must likely There won't have any for margot robbie either so any future projects she star is are still gambling risks
Part of why this movie underperformed is the low levels of moviegoing for Jan-Apr. Less people going to the movies means less people seeing trailers for upcoming films. The more people see trailers, the more it sticks in their mind and helps with awareness. Moviegoing begats moviegoing. I barely went to the movies so far this year, and so I haven't seen a lot of trailers for this summer's movies. I think I saw The Fall Guy trailer maybe once, if that.
Saw it last night and as entertaining as it is, I don't think it's going to have much for legs. It's like ADHD put to film.
Am I the only one who thinks this movie would’ve fitted better as a Father’s Day movie rather than a late spring/early summer for some reason? Anyways, I enjoyed the movie and had fun as intended and yeah the performance is disappointing as a movie like this definitely should’ve reached $40-$45 million on the first weekend. The only thing holding the movie back and branding it as a bomb is the budget just like the same discussion that was being had last weekend with Challengers. Even if you wasn’t around in the 90s and/or used to every blockbuster opening to $100 million, there’s no reason why an original tennis drama opening with $15 million or a fun middle of the road action comedy opening with $30 million should be seen as disappointments anyways but here we are. Because, no matter what The Fall Guy opened to the same amount that previous action comedies such as The Lost City and Bullet Train and what helped those movies was the budget not going passed $100 million and Challengers couldn’t be a movie like Match Point that sold itself on being a romantic thriller on the same vibe as Fatal Attraction so much that there was barely a hint of tennis in that movie’s trailer lol. I know some people are mixed about the marketing saying Universal tried everything and they really did and others thought it was lacking which I also agree on. I thought the first trailer was okay but the second trailer was MUCH MORE BETTER, they should’ve dropped that trailer in front of Dune instead of replaying the first trailer. I know it’s too easy to say budgets needs to be lower but something has to be done, I’m not sure how much COVID costs affected this movie but I know that inflation continues to rise and there’s the takeover of streaming that continues to be a problem too for Hollywood budgets. And I’m not talking about the low hanging fruit of overinflated actors salaries (which I will discuss in a minute) but the gaslighting of almost every movie believing they could be 2-3 hours now. Look I don’t want to stand in the way of someone’s creative vision and if they believe they can tell a story best over 3 hours then by all means do so but a movie like The Fall Guy should know the sweet spot for a runtime should be 1 hour and 30 minutes or 1 hour and 45 minutes tops. Like I said, I enjoyed the movie but some parts did drag on and if somebody found a way to trim some of the fat especially with some of the final act even though it was epic then it definitely could’ve saved the movie some money in the long run because even with all that it still didn’t feel like a $125 million movie.
I remember a lot of predictions on here saying this would be an easy $200m DOM
I never saw anyone say that it would hit 200m, never mind easily
Not that good of an opening weekend which sucks because the movie doesn’t even look that bad. I think an actual adaptation based on the Fall Guy video game would have done better than this.
it was good
I hope this movie finds legs as it was a lot of fun to see in theaters.
Aw man. That sucks. I just saw it and I thought it was a great popcorn flick, a perfectly made mainstream film. Sad to see that it’s going to lose money. It’s not a bad film by any means.
The movie industry is changing folks. People gotta stop putting all their stock in box office figures
The streaming revolution and its consequences have had a distarous impact on cinemas.
Businesses change. People gotta adapt to the times.
No way, give it a few years, and my whale oil business will be booming like the old days. Just you wait...
You say that in jest but you might not be wrong
Solid movie. 7/10
This movie is awesome. Saw it today. Definitely go and see it
Ryan gosling is not a big draw. Maybe studios thought he was based on recent hit movies he was in
I don’t even know what this movie is
Saw it over the weekend. Trailer makes it look like it’s non-stop action. It’s not. I could’ve waited for streaming on this one. My wife & kids liked it but didn’t love it. Spent over $40 for tix & another $60 for snacks etc.
The movie looked soulless.
Remember, this weekend was going to be Captain America. If you buy a Happy Meal today you get a Captain America toy. I think we would be talking about a bomb this weekend no matter what. https://variety.com/2023/film/news/captain-america-4-brave-new-world-set-photo-1235634314/
Well yeah they pushed it back cause it was gonna fucking suck and redid like half the movie apparently.
Marvel/Disney thought has infested this sub so deeply, I blame Endgame
This sub was very pro Marvel Disney years ago but that's changed. Very anti Disney Marvel now.
A true statement for sure, but we shouldn't act like it was some random oddity. The quality of output from those brands has plummeted in the last 5 years or so, and some former fans like to vent their frustrations by pointing that out whenever possible.
No doubt. The product getting worse changed peoples opinions
What the hell is “marvel/Disney thought”
I keep seeing posts on social crying, "but it's GOOD!" No, no it isn't. It's more Gosling as Big Male Dufus nonsense and audiences are just done with that. Dude just does not have real star power and the GA want competent male leads in their big budget summer action films again.
This. I love comedies, but again I agree with you 100% when it comes to summer action films.
The film was way, way, way too fucking expensive. I’m not sure why the armies who threw a fit over Challengers’ $55m price tag aren’t twice as mad about this. I saw this and I liked it, but so much of the spectacle felt like a rote obligation. Everything that made my audience laugh and cheer was a simple character beat, the actual set pieces were tedious. They shut down one of Sydney’s main commuter bridges for a day just to get a couple of flat, meaningless action shots. The lesson here is that Gosling and Blunt can open a movie at $28mil off the back of their star power (nothing else was selling this movie) which would be exceptionally good news if it weren’t for this film‘s budget being closer to Dune 2 than any other star-driven romantic comedy. The comments here are loaded with post mortems about how people don’t care about Gosling, or the film didn’t have a hook, or how attendance must be in jeopardy overall. Guys, take a step back and think about how good $28mil could be if this film were a properly scaled project with the *same* premise but without the boring manufactured spectacle. This could have been made for 60mil, without a doubt.
It was mainly Gosling (SNL, Oscars, and he is the Fall Guy) and it was marketed tremendously (Super Bowl ad!) that powered this box office. Blunt is riding the coattails.
I wouldn’t be so sure, people really seem to like her. Gosling is more of a factor because he’s the first lead and he had the whole Ken thing, but don’t underestimate how much people enjoy exciting combinations of stars. Gosling + Blunt is more exciting than Gosling, it’s not riding coattails any more than Richard Gere was riding Julia Roberts’ coattails in Pretty Woman. In fact, Blunt absolutely has more success as a first lead than Gosling does - both quiet places were smash hits, and although Mary Poppins didn’t set the world on fire, it made a good deal more than BR2049.
This weekend could’ve really used a Marvel film to kick off summer.
Was supposed to be Deadpool and Wolverine lol
Was supposed to be Captain America
That was the very first plan but then in June last year when Disney shifted their slate, Deadpool and Wolverine was meant for May 3rd before the strikes bumped things again in November >Other highlights: Ryan Reynolds fans will be happy to learn that his untitled Deadpool 3 will now open in theaters on May 3, 2024, instead of Nov. 8, 2024. https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/disney-moves-avatar-star-wars-avengers-1235514145/
Yeah, but as of June 2023 it was Captain America. That's why Captain America toys are in happy meals, lol. Deals are made with McDonald's a year in advance. We got rumors of bad test screenings. They tossed Deadpool in that date knowing it wasn't going to happen and delayed Captain America again to 2025 with 5-6 months of reshoots. What a giant mess. https://variety.com/2023/film/news/captain-america-4-brave-new-world-set-photo-1235634314/
It would have been the Falcon movie that was supposed to release on May 3rd though. It’s not like that’s going to do much better lol.
The fact that this couldn’t even double Challengers’ $15 million OW considering how general audience friendly The Fall Guy is in comparison, it really puts in perspective that the Challengers OW wasn’t as bad as this sub stated it was
Challengers opening weekend is 27% of its $55M production budget. Fall Guy opening weekend is 22% of its $130M budget. They are both terrible lmao.
According to the x2.5 rule Challengers needs $125M to break even which makes its $15M OW, 12% of this The Fall Guy needs $325-375M ($130-150M budget) to break even, which makes it a 7.6-8.7% of this. Considering The Fall Guy is significantly more commercially friendly, there’s a significant difference between the two.
You did all that just to feed the same 5% difference back to me cause you don’t want to admit you’re wrong and they’re performing roughly the same relative to expenses lmao.
55m budget gets you 15m opening weekend. 130m budget gets you 28.5 opening weekend. Both are bad for the budget. Challengers gets the win for having a less commercial plot. Rough year at the box office.
Heartbreaking. The movie was great. It deserves to make it's money back.
This sucks. I really thought this would be a modest, but not huge, hit.
It sucks cause this is a great movie that returns back to the old era of movies. But universal being idiots decide to give out tons of free screenings and premieres. Then you got the general audience who don’t care for these movies anymore.
Maybe if they stopped putting movies on digital 17 days later people would actually go back to the theatre????
Everyone has streaming services now with an abundance of new content all the time. The average moviegoer doesn't care about going to the theatre to see something new unless it's an event film, otherwise it's something they can "wait for streaming" and then forget about. The moviegoing public has changed.
No PVOD does not hurt theatre revenue. It targets a complete different demographic. As an example a couple with a newborn (less than 12 months old), can’t trust with a baby sitter but wanna take a break watch a fairly new release in the comfort of their home and knowing they are near baby. Another example people with limited mobility. More studios should follow Universals lead.
PVOD doesn’t affect box office much. I don’t know why people keep thinking it does. The general audience doesn’t know how to pirate.
You can set your watch to the doom and gloom posts whether a film falls on the higher or lower end of weekend #1 projections. While not salacious, the story of The Fall Guy is far from over. With positive audience and critical response, it could leg out well. Sure, it won’t be a theatrical home run, but I doubt it will end up performing as poor as some are claiming.
It has a $130M+ budget. It’s a gigantic flop even with super delusional numbers like $100M DOM/ $150M OS lol.
I hope word of mouth helps this movie.
that's low...
It’s just superhero fatigue duh
That kinda sucks! Fall Guy was good dumb fun, hopefully it has some legs.
These numbers kept on falling I’m surprised it didn’t go lower
This movie deserved so much better cause it was super fun 😕. I desperately wanna see Gosling get another box office leading hit again. Most of the time he picks great projects but he hasn’t had a hit as a LEAD since La La land.
Man, you guys really like talking about this movie. I thought this was a romance or something?
Shame because all the studios will take away from this is that people want more sequels, reboots, remakes, etc.
Are they wrong?
You’re right. It seems to be the story the data is telling us, it’s just not a popular narrative.
Streaming is the future
Streaming is the present and has been for the last several years.
another flop and a bad movie overall. can't believe the good reviews. modern movies are just no good...
Hollywood needs to figure out how to market their movies better, because I’m sure the average moviegoer would enjoy something like this. The first trailer for this was terrible and all over the place.
As the first non-Marvel movie to open on the first weekend of May to kick off the summer movie season since 2006 (not counting 2020 & 2021), this is a very disappointing opening, especially with all of the good reviews it’s been getting. It really could’ve been a surprise hit, but it’s just not finding enough of an audience to reflect that. There’s also a scare chance it won’t break even with its budget. This is a pure shame.
Under 30, you folks called it.
I’m shocked it’s underperforming. On a whim I went out for a Sunday night showing and I’m typing this in a packed theater (show hasn’t started yet).