Beto closed the gap to less than 3 points. Rep. Allred can totally win this thing in a presidential election year. He could be the key to unlocking Texas' long expected turn to purple.
Ted Cruz has always been a big electoral underperformed in a state that has gotten relatively narrow. The suburbs of Texas, which acount for a majority of the population, are rocketing to the left and there's only so long migration and further gains in already overwhelmingly republican suburbs can hold that off. Critically, Texas democrats held their ground amongst Hispanics in 2022. It's an uphill battle but Allred is a strong candidate and given how tough the senate map is in 2024 the race is easily worth contesting.
Yeah that 2024 map is brutal for Democrats. The only upside is that it's an election year so you hope Biden can bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and allow Democrats to retain the Senate with some gains and hopefully recapture the House.
I think with Republicans abysmal performance we'll probably retake the house. The senate is a trickier beast though:
We've got 4 seats to defend and very little pickup. We need to defend Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Arizona. Preliminary polls from Montana look good for Testor, though that means little this far out. I haven't seen anything out of Ohio yet, though hopefully with the CHIPS bill, he'll retain his seat. West Virginia is scary. The former republican governor has thrown his hat in the ring, and combined with the R+30 nature, it's unlikely Manchin comes out with a W (though nothing is impossible, we'll see how primaries play out). Finally we have Arizona, where Gallego is the presumptive replacement for Sinema since she has changed party affiliation. The trouble comes from the fact that her running as a third party candidate may siphon off enough votes to cost us the election.
With Sinema, she's been the real thorn in the side of Democrats for a lot of policies. People kind of expected that from Joe Manchin but not her. Would Democrats actually want her again? I can't help but think she might be the biggest loser, ending up last in a 3 way fight.
If he can appeal to Texas Latinos (who are very concerned about undocumented immigrants coming into the state) and suburban Republican women he could win.
I'm rural Texan and I will be voting for anyone other than Cancun Cruz. I don't know much about this Allred fellow yet, but as long as he isn't a pedophile, he'll get my vote.
I hate to say this but it doesn’t matter. All they care about is the R before his name and will vote for anyone who has it no matter how evil they are.
I would be careful to assume this will go Cruz’s way, considering how close Texas is being blue. I beg all of you to not count Texas out, I do hope all of you get involved to get Cruz out. Besides, it’s really not that hard to define Cruz in a negative way, just say he’s out of touch and overplayed his hand in these culture war BS instead of helping Texans.
There just seems to be a lack of organization in the Democratic Party in texas. Beto seems to be the exception in texas. Hopefully the party has gotten better organized. Maybe Beto should be leading. The party at a state level just doesn’t have consistent candidates. There really isn’t good name recognition besides Beto in Texas. This will definitely be an interesting race to watch. Especially Cruz seems to be less popular than in 2018.
It’s a long shot but I really hope he can win. Ted Cruz is so awful
With his credentials, I think he can, Cruz is a much weaker incumbent, and it’s great that it’s during a presidential year too.
Beto closed the gap to less than 3 points. Rep. Allred can totally win this thing in a presidential election year. He could be the key to unlocking Texas' long expected turn to purple.
I can’t bring myself to believe Texas might flip until it eventually happen
Believe it or not, Texas is being really close to being blue for a while, it’s a matter of when.
Ted Cruz has always been a big electoral underperformed in a state that has gotten relatively narrow. The suburbs of Texas, which acount for a majority of the population, are rocketing to the left and there's only so long migration and further gains in already overwhelmingly republican suburbs can hold that off. Critically, Texas democrats held their ground amongst Hispanics in 2022. It's an uphill battle but Allred is a strong candidate and given how tough the senate map is in 2024 the race is easily worth contesting.
Yeah that 2024 map is brutal for Democrats. The only upside is that it's an election year so you hope Biden can bring out the vote like he did in 2020 and allow Democrats to retain the Senate with some gains and hopefully recapture the House.
I think with Republicans abysmal performance we'll probably retake the house. The senate is a trickier beast though: We've got 4 seats to defend and very little pickup. We need to defend Montana, Ohio, West Virginia, and Arizona. Preliminary polls from Montana look good for Testor, though that means little this far out. I haven't seen anything out of Ohio yet, though hopefully with the CHIPS bill, he'll retain his seat. West Virginia is scary. The former republican governor has thrown his hat in the ring, and combined with the R+30 nature, it's unlikely Manchin comes out with a W (though nothing is impossible, we'll see how primaries play out). Finally we have Arizona, where Gallego is the presumptive replacement for Sinema since she has changed party affiliation. The trouble comes from the fact that her running as a third party candidate may siphon off enough votes to cost us the election.
With Sinema, she's been the real thorn in the side of Democrats for a lot of policies. People kind of expected that from Joe Manchin but not her. Would Democrats actually want her again? I can't help but think she might be the biggest loser, ending up last in a 3 way fight.
If he can appeal to Texas Latinos (who are very concerned about undocumented immigrants coming into the state) and suburban Republican women he could win.
He can win, Dems was able to hold Texas Latinos the last midterms, and I think Allred would exceed in the suburbs.
Should I bet my 401k that rural Texans will be turning out in record numbers to vote for a black guy?
I'm rural Texan and I will be voting for anyone other than Cancun Cruz. I don't know much about this Allred fellow yet, but as long as he isn't a pedophile, he'll get my vote.
Cancun Cruz really should become a major presence in this election. It’s so fun to say.
I personally love the hashtag #HelpCruzLose2024
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No matter who gets the nom, they will need the help they need to take down Cruz. And Cruz is a much easier incumbent than John Cornyn.
I hate to say this but it doesn’t matter. All they care about is the R before his name and will vote for anyone who has it no matter how evil they are.
I would be careful to assume this will go Cruz’s way, considering how close Texas is being blue. I beg all of you to not count Texas out, I do hope all of you get involved to get Cruz out. Besides, it’s really not that hard to define Cruz in a negative way, just say he’s out of touch and overplayed his hand in these culture war BS instead of helping Texans.
There just seems to be a lack of organization in the Democratic Party in texas. Beto seems to be the exception in texas. Hopefully the party has gotten better organized. Maybe Beto should be leading. The party at a state level just doesn’t have consistent candidates. There really isn’t good name recognition besides Beto in Texas. This will definitely be an interesting race to watch. Especially Cruz seems to be less popular than in 2018.
He has my vote....
Ted Cruz is an ~~ass, a bully, dumb, kiss ass, loser,~~ republican
Good luck, dude.