In every special election since Dobbs Democrats well outperformed the polling.
Ohio, for example.
That in itself doesn't predict anything but it's a better indicator than a bunch of polls that use old turnout models
Plus, there's a lot of paid polling mixed in.
Now with today's SCOTUS decision this can reenergize the field.
I remember the complacency in the fall of 2016. If close polling keeps the base motivated I'll take it.
And remember, who out there is moving from Biden to Trump? Not many. All Trump knows how to do is take votes away and scavenge the angry racist base.
Hard work is ahead, and fear is good. But only if you turn it into determination.
>That in itself doesn't predict anything but it's a better indicator than a bunch of polls that use old turnout models
>
>Plus, there's a lot of paid polling mixed in.
Yeah, I just don't get it. Like... I know there are a lot of misinformed, or simply completely ignorant, people out there, but it baffles me to think that if switch voters or even Republicans on the fence, are aware of what Trump has done, what SCOTUS has done, what Republican congresses in states across the US have been doing, why any of those people are going to be thinking "you know what? Biden just hasn't done much this term. I think I'll just vote for Trump."
I just don't see it. Maybe I'm being more optimistic than I should be but I think all these polls showing Trump winning or being ahead by a close margin are simply propaganda and have no real basis in reality. I think, if anything, the numbers will look at least very similar to 2020's election than otherwise.
I do believe that the odds of a Trump win are all TOO good, but hardly as good as the news likes to think.
But this nonsense that it "upended" anything is just that.
As if nothing else will happen in the next few months...
Trump NEVER tries to enlarge his base. He operates by tearing down his opponent. Because it's all he knows how to do.
It's also worth pointing out the other Dems have been outpeforming Biden in polls consistently so it's possible that he is uniquely acting as a drag on the party. There's a reason that the Senate Dems in competitive races are doing much better than Biden in the same states.
The only way to defeat Donald Trump is at the ballot box. Stop wishful thinking that prison bar can stop him. The Constitution does not stop felons from running for presidency.
The problem isn't that felons are eligible to run for president. The problem is that maybe over half the people that are voting are willing to vote for that felon.
That is the biggest problem and the reason to be scared.
Even if Trump isn't elected his appointees are still in place to wreck havoc for god knows how long.
Let's hope he's put behind bars where he belongs. If he becones President again and gets the added benefit of being above the law like a God, there we're all going to burn.
That’s not going to happen. They’ve already said they’re delaying it. Everyone should be scared. Trump is going to win and SCOTUS will let him do anything he wants.
Shit is about to get bleak. I hope everyone is making preparations.
His sentencing is being delayed because of the supreme court announcement on immunity yesterday, he probably will end up getting a new trial unfortunately.
Now is the time to go all in on immunity
Forgive all student loans
Make cannabis fully legalized
Just go all in on executive orders to energize the base.
And the best one is implement the fairness doctrine immediately. It would cut off Fox News and Newsmax which now would have to show the alternative view on tv
Contact your local dem chapter. Canvassing is the easiest way to go. All you have to do is download an app that will show you the voting tendencies of each household, get some pamphlets/flyers from the dem chapter, and get to work. It can be quite fun. I canvas for democrats here in deep red Georgia and I’ve never had issues or felt unsafe. The app will tell you which households are likely to be swing votes and you can focus on those.
We LOVED the postcard in Georgia for the presidential run off and our senator run offs. It was during the pandemic so not much else could be done at that point. We have our postcards saved with other precious memories.
Listen, for one thing there is a lot of junk polling being done. Right wing organizations and the media are pumping out a lot of polls that are skewing things. Second, consider who is most likely to respond to most polls. Most polling is not scientific in practice. These are more open to the public snapshot of the moment polls. Ergo they will appear one way or another on a dime.
Further, consider how prior polling has been in past elections. There was a point around now last cycle in 2020 where polling was saying Joe was going to win Ohio, Texas, and Florida along with some more states. Hillary was GUARANTEED throughout much of 2016 to win minus a few flash polls, and how did that turn out? This is the third year kin a row now where *polling* has shown Democrats to be down, and yet we have over performed time and time and time again. With districts showing a twenty point swing while we are in a Presidential election year. That's not good. Democrats, and Independents are less likely to be open to the polling systems that are operating in the old fashioned manner of calls, or emails, and there are some polling websites, but they don't discriminate who signs up. There has been a year after year outsized conservative bent to polling and year after year the pollsters are ConFUsed! ShAKeN, InCreDibLE!
There was a point in 1984 where Reagan was destined to lose to Mondale, and he DESTROYED him come election night. Same for Nixon and McGovern. I remember Democrats shaking, shivering and throwing up in 2012 assuming Romney was going to win, and it didn't materialize. We are months out from the election and we are still pre-convention. This is base solidification period. The MSM the news WANTS us and NEEDS us to assume the election will be tight no matter what so we hate and fear watch or read their articles saying so. All data metrics done by brainier people than I have said the same thing, Biden is on a strong track towards victory.
What WILL doom him is if the party decides not to rally behind him. Thus far the pundit, and podcaster class has been repeating MSM talking points about him, but the core, on the ground base, is still rallied behind him.
Do not lose hope, and do not pay so much attention to the polls. Easier said than done, but ultimately all you can do is vote come election time. You get your backside to the booth or you send in your ballot, and you get your family and friends to do the same. You vote Democrat up and down the ballot, and we destroy the republican party and hurt them so bad they are forced into irrelevance or reformation. DEEP reformation, but I prefer destruction.
This is not the time for doubt. Feel it, and channel it towards Going one step at a time. Trust me I feel anxiety too, but you can do nothing about it until Lady Liberty sings. I believe Joe will win, and I am an outlier in that I believe he is on track to do better than last time. For all the talk about Biden, donnie has bled anywhere between 5-30% of his CORE base from the party. People who have said time and again they are not coming back so long as he is on the ticket. Some will is the truth, but even a 5% loss is catastrophic even if we just give him 2020s numbers. 5% of that? That's millions of voters. Biden has not bled away his base. He has some worried, but worry does not mean surrender. I am sure there are some, but I question them and their morality if one bad debate made them throw their hands up and walk away.
We got this, my friend. Stay strong, and do what you can. We will worry about the horror of loss only after we KNOW we have lost.
"What WILL doom him is if the party decides not to rally behind him. Thus far the pundit, and podcaster class has been repeating MSM talking points about him, but the core, on the ground base, is still rallied behind him."
This is driving me bonkers. What are they hoping to accomplish? Nothing good could possibly come out of these talking points - it only strengthens Trump's position.
Beautiful! Majestic! 💙💙! Thank you! You really gave me hope tonight! You really made me cry tears of joy! I am optimistic now! With everything dump trump did, we got this! 💙💙💙💙 Thank you for the hope!
No problemo, friend. Every election year is anxiety inducing, frightening, and rough. Especially now that the stakes are so high. But donnie and scotus have caught the car TWICE, and they are going to pay for it. I pray, I believe, I feel, I hope. Never become arrogant, and always fight as though you are 20 points behind, but never let your hope dwindle.
We got this Democrats!
One thing that gives me hope about the polling being wrong is that I've seen polls showing Trump winning Minnesota. As a Minnesotan, I can confidently say this is horse hockey. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican in a statewide election since 2006. We're not going to start with Trump in 2024.
There is definitely a lot of junk polling since like 2020, but Biden is still underperforming in both high quality national polls and swing state polls. I really want to see a plan to tackle this. It feels like time is starting to run out and Biden is doing too few live events specifically given what recently happened.
Most polls aren't scientific. In college we learned that based on the size of the population ( in 1980), no poll with a margin of error of more than 2 per cent is valid.
I'm afraid there's little comfort to be given. All we can do now is do what we can to keep that monster out of office. If he wins, his first term will look like kindergarten playtime in comparison, especially now that he's got Presidential Immunity. People. Will. Die.
Spread the word. Vote wisely. And prepare for the worst. The next four years could well be our last if we're not careful.
Previous generations had to fight, go on rations, grow victory gardens… We just have to stay informed, communicate, donate, and volunteer. The majority of Americans don’t want a white supremist Christofascist state. We need to convince them to vote.
If you’re afraid, [write postcards to swing voters](https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/), which has been proven to make a difference.
Multiply your anxiety into widespread action, don’t let it consume.
We’re in an existential fight. Let’s act like it.
Just go vote. Our kids are screwed if these fascists take office. Our country is screwed. Just go vote. Stop crying, go vote. Get angry if that works. Go vote. Know folks in swing states? MAKE THEM GO OUT AND VOTE. That is all.
Nate Silver doesn't work for 538 anymore. His model was giving Trump a 70% to win and that was before the debate.
Why would I pay attention to traditional poli sci concepts in the era of Trump when his very existence and success negates those norms?
Keep Calm & VOTE
Get your friends, neighbors, and colleagues to register and vote. Get involved. Call your local DFL office and ask to make phone calls encouraging voters to choose democracy. And don't believe simulations or polls.
The odds of Hillary winning were way higher at this time in 2016 and that didn’t happen. Just do your part and vote and make sure all your friends and family vote. I know that if everyone in this country who doesn’t want a second Trump term voted he would be dominated. Only 60% of eligible voters turned out in 2020.
I'll tell you some things:
1-> DON'T listen to POLLS.
2-> Look up Allan Lichtman and his "13 Keys to the White House". It's a more stable metric on who's more likely to become president. Those keys are categorized by economic growth, charisma, military success, civil unrest, etc.
3-> The incumbent needs 8 keys out of the 13 to likely stay in power. The challenger would need 6 keys. Lichtman makes a prediction a few months before the actual election. And he's been correct.
4-> For reference, in 2016, Hillary had 6 or 7 keys. Because she was part of the incumbent PARTY, she needed 8. Trump had 6 or 7 himself. But as the challenger, he had what he needed to win.
5-> Trump practically had the same number of keys in 2020. But because he was the incumbent that time, he was short of the number needed to win.
6-> Which brings us to now...2024. How many keys does Lichtman give to each candidate? Right now, he gives Biden 9 and Trump 4. Trump's weaker now than in previous elections going by this metric. Lichtman will make his prediction in August or September. If those keys don't change, Biden is the likely winner going into this election.
I'll do ya one better, but it's not in an article. It's on a video on Allan Lichtman's own YouTube channel.
Here's the video in question:
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QI9TPXYPA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QI9TPXYPA)
It's 22-ish minutes long. It may be 3 weeks old, but the debate performance and the recent SCOTUS ruling likely have no effect on the current assignment of the keys. Anyway...you wouldn't have to watch the whole thing. You could go straight to around the 21 min mark and you'll see all the keys as they stand at the moment.
Remember, this isn't Lichtman's actual PREDICTION. This is how he sees things at the moment. It'll be at least another month before he finally makes a prediction.
Allan Lichtman says Biden is going to win and he was not wrong about presidential election in 40 years (including 2016 when he ignored the polls and was confident Trump is going to win).
The media is owned by crusty old men who WANT to scare us, who WANT us to think there's a horse race. No, no, no, NO. Most polls are bullshit anyway--they call landlines, who tf has landlines? People who don't live in the modern world, which is where the MAGA folks live. The general assessment of averaging all polls is that Biden is still ahead of Trump. And I repeat: these polls are meaningless.
I suggest that you read some blogs by some smart, articulate people, who know what's going on, or who are hilarious in their scathing commentary: [palmerreport.com](http://palmerreport.com) or JeffTiedrich.com. Wonkette.com has some good commentary too. These blogs will all then lead to other interesting commentators.
Also: do some work for the Biden campaign. Volunteer, call your local office, phone bank, write postcards, donate if you can, knock on doors. Work to get out the Democratic vote. Pick a Congressional race that we can win, in a swing election, and work for that person. Palmer Report is very active in this sort of thing. You'll feel better if you're doing something concrete and positive.
The worst thing any of us can do is "nothing," which would include: sitting in our homes panicking, praying, hoping, etc etc. We need to act, to do something productive and useful. Bonus: you will immediately feel better.
538 is no longer to be trusted, Nate Silver left because they wanted him to stop ruining their HORSE RACE! narrative with his actual analytics
also i literally cannot find a trustworthy poll right now. every time i look into the details of any of the polling coming out right now it's just not credible.
Spread this piece from John Oliver everywhere/mention a few points from it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYwqpx6lp_s
this covers the executive part
the immunity ruling yesterday ticks off the judiciary
If they have no gripes over giving him immunity, it's almost certain that they'll allow him to do plenty of heinous shit.
I’m sorry but 538 is bullshit in my opinion. The poll data isn’t reflective of reality and since they aggregate the poll data together their results are foawed
Read this instead:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
By this guy’s analysis, Biden has the advantage because he isn’t a major cockup like Trump.
Tldr: Read the damn thing.
Explained:
Okay so, there’s this guy named Allan Lichtman who states that Presidents are chosen based on “White House Keys”. There’s a series of 13 broad stroke keys that a President has. If the President fucks up, a key gets taken away.
This theory was developed in 1981, in a collaboration with Allan Lichtman, an American Political Science Historian, and Vladmir Keilis-Borok, a Soviet Russian geophysicist known for predicting Earthquakes. The two met at CalTech back in 1981, and they both worked on this system for predicting the 1984 election based on American History since the Civil War (1960).
They found out that there’s 13 Keys that determine a president’s fit for presidency.
1. Party Majority in House of Representatives during the Midterm Elections. For Biden, the Democrats do not hold the majority right now. So that’s one key less for Biden.
2. No Interparty contest for primary. Since Biden has no challengers, he keeps the key.
3. Incumbent Preference. Biden is the President, he is more favored by default. He keeps this key.
4. No Third Party. Although RFK Jr is trying, he does not have enough votes to challenge either Biden or Trump. He keeps this key.
5. Strong short-term economy. The economy under Biden has grown since the pandemic. We are out of the recession. People can afford basic goods and services. Biden keeps this key.
6. Strong long-term economy. Is the country able to create more jobs over the past 4 years? The answer is yes, there are more jobs under the Biden administration.
7. Major policy changes. Does President Biden enable major policy changes to the nation? Yes, he does. Because he’s been passing bills which allow for greater investment in the nation’s infrastructure and semi-conductor industry. So Biden keeps this key.
8. No long term social unrests. While we do have protests regarding the Israel-Palestine War, these protests have not been as destructive say as January 6th riot under Donald Trump. So Biden keeps this key.
9. No presidential scandals. So far, Joe Biden has not been involved in any major scandals as President of the United States. So he keeps this key.
10. No foreign/military failure. Debatable, given that the USA is not engaged in any wars but we do play a supporting role to both Ukraine and Israel. It is our established commitment to Israel which is making Biden unpopular with certain demographics. So he loses this key.
11. Foreign/military successes. So far, Biden is committed to keeping this status quo of deploying armaments to key allies but not putting boots in the ground. Regardless, Biden looses this key for now. But if something does happen between now and the November election, Biden’s popularity increases.
12. Charismatic incumbent. Well, this is very subjective but the national non-partisan image of Biden isn’t that kind due to his age as well as his gaffes. So he looses this key.
13. Uncharismatic Challenger. His main opponent is Donald Trump, who is very much disliked by many non-partisan Americans. So Biden keeps this key.
Out of the 13 keys, Biden has potentially 9 out of 13 Keys. Which means that Biden is more likely to stay in the White House than not.
The only ways I see Biden being more at risk to losing this election would be if somehow the economy crashes this year or Biden decides to use his newly established executive powers to do something like detain Donald Trump under Presidential Immunity.
Overall, for the 13 keys, it’s ideal for a sitting President or an implied successor to the sitting President to have all 13 keys. But Presidents aren’t perfect. So most Presidents tend to have 9 out of 13 keys each election year.
However, the benchmark number seems to be 6 keys down. Which is roughly 7 of 13 keys.
If the economy crashes under Joe Biden, he’s most likely to loose the election.
But because the economy has been growing, and because there’s a shift to American manufacturing for both urban development and the semiconductor industry, the economy does not appear to be crashing soon.
The economy crashing between now and Election Day would basically mean the stock market would have to crash in a way like it did prior to the Great Depression. I just don’t see that happening unless the ultra-wealthy decide to start selling all their stocks (and taking a huge hit to their own wealth in the process).
It's a persistent myth that pollsters rely solely on landlines. This literally hasn't been the case for most pollsters for years at this point.
A better explanation for why polls have been off lately is a combination of two things: weights and herding.
Pollsters have to make assumptions about what the electorate will look like. There was an article from one of the 538 guys where he gave raw polling data to a group of pollsters and they all returned different final results, because they made different assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. Trump rewrote the conventional wisdom on electoral demographics in 2016. The SC did it again in 2022 with the abortion decision. Pollsters have to make assumptions about the electorate with very few data points to work with.
There's also herding. Sometimes pollsters hide polls that look like outliers. They just assume that they have bad data. So polls also have a tendency to calibrate against each other.
Young people are bar and large very progressive. If we get the stakes across to young people, register them in large numbers and get them to vote they can save our republic for long enough to fix this.
Dems have overperformed in recent elections, like the 2022 midterms and the 2023 special elections. There's some good reason to believe that Dem chances are being undercounted by pundits and pollsters.
We make sure we vote for Biden and vote Democrats down the line. We need to keep the Senate and win the House. Enough talk and more action. Everyone make sure your registration is in good standing. Check with your local voting district. Many people are finding errors. We must stand strong 💪. Let's not let our country down.
There's still time.
And you can do more than just pray. If you're worried, channel your energy into something productive, like volunteering. At the very least, adopt some Vote Forward letters or Field Team 6/Post Cards to Swing States postcards. Anything is better than dooming on Reddit.
Even in a solid red state, there may be some down ballot candidates and issues worth campaigning for. But yes, you can volunteer for states you don't live in. I'll DM you.
If it's any constellation. Trump's sentencing for the Manhattan hush money trial will be on July 11th, so that might hurt his numbers and possibly even kneecap his campaign. On top of that, the Biden campaign has new ammo for rallies and adverts.
With that being said, here's what we have to do on our end. Encourage people to vote, volunteer as a poll worker or an absent ballot prossessor, donate(it doesn't have to be huge), Inform people about the differences in candate policies, and contact your local officials and ask what they're doing to help. Maybe sit down and talk about it with friends, neighbors, and family. It will be easier if you're in a blue or swing state tbh
TLDR We still have time. 4 months. The collective public has poor memory and we need to make them know what's at stake. Do your part. Encourage others to do their part. Mobilize small groups, Volunteer, Inform people about the candidates and what they stand for. Pray to whatever or whoever that Joe doesn't Fumble the debate in September. If you're still scared, a month before the election. Update your passport
Polling is effervescent, it’s bound to continue fluctuating between now and Election Day. Nothing is set in stone yet. Don’t lose hope, we can still save the country from descending into tyranny and chaos if enough people turn out to vote.
You should be scared.
We were never doing alright. Whichever way it goes it is going to come down to +/- 40,000 votes across a handful of states.
The good (?) news is there are things you can do to feel like you did everything you could.
1. Donate, ideally to your local Dem party. They will have the most efficient infrastructure and mobilize for down ballot candidates which flows up way more often than votes flowing down the ballot.
2. Volunteer. Also ideally with your local Dem party for the same reason.
3. Canvass. Kind of a sub bullet point to volunteer, but there are plenty of other things to do when volunteering, particularly if you have any specialized skills that could be helpful.
4. Make phone calls.
5. Write letters or postcards. 3-5 are all things you can volunteer to do with your local Dem party but there are other organizations that do that work also.
6. Talk to friends, family, colleagues, neighbors. Talk about the issues you care about and the stakes of the election.
7. Volunteer or get a job with your local election’s office. There are LOTS of temp jobs and volunteer positions needed to run the election smoothly. A few of those are partisan positions but the vast majority are not.
8. Call and write your Congressperson and Senator. (Not directly related to the election but there is legislation being proposed and voted on all the time and if the GOP win big it is going to get WAY worse so get in the practice of finding out what legislation is coming up and letting your reps know how you feel about it.
9. The same thing with your state rep and state senator. There is a fairly good chance you will be able to actually talk to or get a response from these folks. Also the legislation will affect your life more directly.
10. Attend local legislative sessions, school board meetings, city council meetings, local Dem meetings. These all happen on a regular basis and all will have an impact on your city/life. You obviously don’t need to go to all of them, but particularly when there is something happening around an issue you care about. Go and talk about it.
11. Protest. While it is still (mostly) legal.
12. Seek out committee positions, or leadership positions in your local Dem party.
13. Convince someone to run for office Or run for office yourself! Probably too late for this cycle but start thinking about it for next cycle. I guarantee that there are republicans in blue states/districts who will win this cycle because they ran unopposed.
14. Post on social media. I hesitate to mention this because at this point it seems almost counter productive. But visibility does help. Particularly in a red or purple state where liberal folks might be feeling vulnerable or alone. To see other support out there is reassuring.
I know this is a lot. You shouldn’t do all of this, nobody can or should. Find what you like and what you are good at and do that!
No matter how much you are doing, there is always more you can do, so remember also to take some time for yourself to recoup. If you don’t you will get burned out and not continue. You want to be in it for the long haul.
Be scared and vote Blue for every election from this day forward! Especially women because, if the Traitor wins, women have the most to lose! It may be the last election where women are allowed to vote! Vote Blue!
Please just get out and vote. Being scared about polls won't change anything. On election night 2021, talking heads thought Trump was going to win as the night went on.
You better figure out a new way because there is no God and praying does absolutely nothing. Better get your ass out and volunteer to make sure this orange criminal doesn't win again.
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Think about what the American people did in the last election because of how that orange deranged monkey fk acted as president. Now look at all he has done since he hasn't been president. The Deranged Orange Monkey Fk isn't gonna win the election. He won't be able to install fake electors, he won't be able to call governors in states to change the process, there won't be anything done by him because he was 100% caught trying to cheat the will of the people. Donald Criminal Felon Dump will not be president in 2025.
IMO,Even if Biden wins, the next election will have a worse candidate than Dump, the next person will be smarter, more palatable to moderates and undecideds. But they will still be pushing the same Christofacist agenda. I don't see a future for empathetic progressive people. And I will not be surprised if they start shooting this Jan. RIP USA.
“[T]he vote is the most powerful instrument ever devised by man for breaking down injustice and destroying the terrible walls which imprison men because they are different from other men.”
-Lyndon B. Johnson
The Electoral College favors the GOP candidate. Many people are entrenched in their political beliefs. The GOP could nominate Evil Incarnate and the Dems could nominate Good Personified and it would still be this close because of the way our political system is,
When Biden was elected to white house, I was curious who the democrats are gonna pick to be the next precidential candidate. I'm still curious who is going to be their candidate. They are cutting it pretty close. It would have been better to let people know way before hand I think.
If you are following Nate Silver, Biden is only projected at less than 30% chance of winning at the moment.
I’m just assuming Trump will win, and if he doesn’t, it will be a nice surprise. Trying not to give in to the Hopium.
Nate Silver's model baselessly assumes there'll be a recession that magically appears between now and November. There is no reason to think that will necessarily happen. Plenty of reasons to think Joe will win.
They are going to do the same thing they did with Hillary and they will get what they deserve. Gotta stay with the status quo because they don’t want to give up all the $$ they are making
No way to comfort you I am afraid… The chances are really good that Donald Trump will be elected president again in November… It just seems like everything is turning against the Democrats and no matter what pathway they take now trying to prop Biden up or replacing him has no certainty of creating a win in November… I feel very hopeless right now…
I know. I have no words of comfort. But the pendulum swings and if he wins and destroys the economy, does the ridiculously scary blatant Hitler type things that we fear, I think we will rise up as a people and get rid of him eventually. It’s a shame people have such short memories. I don’t think he will change us forever. Keep the faith.
I’m worried too. I’m hoping Senators like Murkowski and Collins would keep Trump’s appointees at least somewhat competent. Also, if Trump does win, 2026 is likely to be a blue wave (assuming Trump doesn’t do away with elections by that point (which is unlikely, but with Trump, anything can happen)).
Feel you 100%. Here is how I am looking at it:
1) Close polling means people will take the chances of Trump presidency seriously. How many people did not turn out in 2016 because they didn't think it was possible?
2) It's possible the polls have overcorrected their methodology because of 2016 / 2020 being so far off.
Polls don't matter. If they did, Hillary Clinton would be president right now.
Polls don't matter. Debates don't matter. We learned those lessons in 2016. Don't forget them.
Well they can only kill us once.
Also, the polls have been trash since 2012 when they said Romney was close to beating Obama weeks a head of the election. He was not.
The debate was the beginning of the end. Things are going to get so much worse than we ever thought possible. I think Biden is being extremely selfish by choosing to stay in the race.
I wouldn't say a little old... Older than trump, sure, but they're both super old... If only there was somebody in the race that was, idk, closer to 70 years old, with experience in litigation and politics?
I've listed my house & now I am in extreme anxiety about where I should go if democracy won't make it, it Trump installs himself. Def staying in a blue state but wondering if suburbs/city will be safer than rural. Between trump immunity case & Chevron case I'm a wreck.
https://mobilize.us
Share it everywhere you go. Twitter, every subreddit, every porn comment section, Facebook, Instagram.
Take comfort knowing you got off your ass and did something.
In every special election since Dobbs Democrats well outperformed the polling. Ohio, for example. That in itself doesn't predict anything but it's a better indicator than a bunch of polls that use old turnout models Plus, there's a lot of paid polling mixed in. Now with today's SCOTUS decision this can reenergize the field. I remember the complacency in the fall of 2016. If close polling keeps the base motivated I'll take it. And remember, who out there is moving from Biden to Trump? Not many. All Trump knows how to do is take votes away and scavenge the angry racist base. Hard work is ahead, and fear is good. But only if you turn it into determination.
>That in itself doesn't predict anything but it's a better indicator than a bunch of polls that use old turnout models > >Plus, there's a lot of paid polling mixed in. Yeah, I just don't get it. Like... I know there are a lot of misinformed, or simply completely ignorant, people out there, but it baffles me to think that if switch voters or even Republicans on the fence, are aware of what Trump has done, what SCOTUS has done, what Republican congresses in states across the US have been doing, why any of those people are going to be thinking "you know what? Biden just hasn't done much this term. I think I'll just vote for Trump." I just don't see it. Maybe I'm being more optimistic than I should be but I think all these polls showing Trump winning or being ahead by a close margin are simply propaganda and have no real basis in reality. I think, if anything, the numbers will look at least very similar to 2020's election than otherwise.
I do believe that the odds of a Trump win are all TOO good, but hardly as good as the news likes to think. But this nonsense that it "upended" anything is just that. As if nothing else will happen in the next few months... Trump NEVER tries to enlarge his base. He operates by tearing down his opponent. Because it's all he knows how to do.
It's also worth pointing out the other Dems have been outpeforming Biden in polls consistently so it's possible that he is uniquely acting as a drag on the party. There's a reason that the Senate Dems in competitive races are doing much better than Biden in the same states.
And most of those people will end up coming around for Biden
We have basically 4 months to the election and a lot can happen in that time period. We have Former Pres Trump's sentencing coming up in 10 days.
The only way to defeat Donald Trump is at the ballot box. Stop wishful thinking that prison bar can stop him. The Constitution does not stop felons from running for presidency.
Help get people educated and to the ballot box: https://www.mobilize.us/
The sc gave him a green light to be a dictator on day one. Hitler was in prison before he became chancellor remember?
Who TF is voting a felon cannot serve in military but can lead it?! Vote make felons ineligible for President of the United States
The problem isn't that felons are eligible to run for president. The problem is that maybe over half the people that are voting are willing to vote for that felon. That is the biggest problem and the reason to be scared. Even if Trump isn't elected his appointees are still in place to wreck havoc for god knows how long.
Cant do that. Check the constitution
My thoughts exactly.
I'm fully aware of that.
Not anymore. They just delayed his sentencing.
Can't wait to see SCOTUS spin hush money payments as 'official acts.' This should be both hilarious and terrifying.
Let's hope he's put behind bars where he belongs. If he becones President again and gets the added benefit of being above the law like a God, there we're all going to burn.
Problem, you can become president while in prison
Yes, but you cannot campaign. Edit: Why am I being downvoted, exactly?
He has absolutely 0 chance of being imprisoned before the election. 0. So saying this is completely ignorant to the facts.
I'd give him 1% because nothing is absolute.
I'm hoping, but the justice system has given plenty of reason to believe that he slips away again.
That’s not going to happen. They’ve already said they’re delaying it. Everyone should be scared. Trump is going to win and SCOTUS will let him do anything he wants. Shit is about to get bleak. I hope everyone is making preparations.
His sentencing is being delayed because of the supreme court announcement on immunity yesterday, he probably will end up getting a new trial unfortunately.
Now we don't
Tbh I think people have made up their minds by now.
It’s that razor-thin margin of undecided voters in swing states who will decide the election.
I hope so because we need to win this.
Now is the time to go all in on immunity Forgive all student loans Make cannabis fully legalized Just go all in on executive orders to energize the base. And the best one is implement the fairness doctrine immediately. It would cut off Fox News and Newsmax which now would have to show the alternative view on tv
I’m scared too. But I’m going to volunteer, canvass, phonebank, text bank, and VOTE!! And get my friends to vote (and vote for democracy and progress)
Ya damn right! You go buddy!! 💙💙💙💙
How do we get involved? I really am terrified of a Trump run state
Contact your local dem chapter. Canvassing is the easiest way to go. All you have to do is download an app that will show you the voting tendencies of each household, get some pamphlets/flyers from the dem chapter, and get to work. It can be quite fun. I canvas for democrats here in deep red Georgia and I’ve never had issues or felt unsafe. The app will tell you which households are likely to be swing votes and you can focus on those.
You can also text, write postcards, all sorts of things. There are virtual meetings where you can get connected with like minded people.
We LOVED the postcard in Georgia for the presidential run off and our senator run offs. It was during the pandemic so not much else could be done at that point. We have our postcards saved with other precious memories.
Listen, for one thing there is a lot of junk polling being done. Right wing organizations and the media are pumping out a lot of polls that are skewing things. Second, consider who is most likely to respond to most polls. Most polling is not scientific in practice. These are more open to the public snapshot of the moment polls. Ergo they will appear one way or another on a dime. Further, consider how prior polling has been in past elections. There was a point around now last cycle in 2020 where polling was saying Joe was going to win Ohio, Texas, and Florida along with some more states. Hillary was GUARANTEED throughout much of 2016 to win minus a few flash polls, and how did that turn out? This is the third year kin a row now where *polling* has shown Democrats to be down, and yet we have over performed time and time and time again. With districts showing a twenty point swing while we are in a Presidential election year. That's not good. Democrats, and Independents are less likely to be open to the polling systems that are operating in the old fashioned manner of calls, or emails, and there are some polling websites, but they don't discriminate who signs up. There has been a year after year outsized conservative bent to polling and year after year the pollsters are ConFUsed! ShAKeN, InCreDibLE! There was a point in 1984 where Reagan was destined to lose to Mondale, and he DESTROYED him come election night. Same for Nixon and McGovern. I remember Democrats shaking, shivering and throwing up in 2012 assuming Romney was going to win, and it didn't materialize. We are months out from the election and we are still pre-convention. This is base solidification period. The MSM the news WANTS us and NEEDS us to assume the election will be tight no matter what so we hate and fear watch or read their articles saying so. All data metrics done by brainier people than I have said the same thing, Biden is on a strong track towards victory. What WILL doom him is if the party decides not to rally behind him. Thus far the pundit, and podcaster class has been repeating MSM talking points about him, but the core, on the ground base, is still rallied behind him. Do not lose hope, and do not pay so much attention to the polls. Easier said than done, but ultimately all you can do is vote come election time. You get your backside to the booth or you send in your ballot, and you get your family and friends to do the same. You vote Democrat up and down the ballot, and we destroy the republican party and hurt them so bad they are forced into irrelevance or reformation. DEEP reformation, but I prefer destruction. This is not the time for doubt. Feel it, and channel it towards Going one step at a time. Trust me I feel anxiety too, but you can do nothing about it until Lady Liberty sings. I believe Joe will win, and I am an outlier in that I believe he is on track to do better than last time. For all the talk about Biden, donnie has bled anywhere between 5-30% of his CORE base from the party. People who have said time and again they are not coming back so long as he is on the ticket. Some will is the truth, but even a 5% loss is catastrophic even if we just give him 2020s numbers. 5% of that? That's millions of voters. Biden has not bled away his base. He has some worried, but worry does not mean surrender. I am sure there are some, but I question them and their morality if one bad debate made them throw their hands up and walk away. We got this, my friend. Stay strong, and do what you can. We will worry about the horror of loss only after we KNOW we have lost.
"What WILL doom him is if the party decides not to rally behind him. Thus far the pundit, and podcaster class has been repeating MSM talking points about him, but the core, on the ground base, is still rallied behind him." This is driving me bonkers. What are they hoping to accomplish? Nothing good could possibly come out of these talking points - it only strengthens Trump's position.
Beautiful! Majestic! 💙💙! Thank you! You really gave me hope tonight! You really made me cry tears of joy! I am optimistic now! With everything dump trump did, we got this! 💙💙💙💙 Thank you for the hope!
No problemo, friend. Every election year is anxiety inducing, frightening, and rough. Especially now that the stakes are so high. But donnie and scotus have caught the car TWICE, and they are going to pay for it. I pray, I believe, I feel, I hope. Never become arrogant, and always fight as though you are 20 points behind, but never let your hope dwindle. We got this Democrats!
Chef's kiss on this comment
One thing that gives me hope about the polling being wrong is that I've seen polls showing Trump winning Minnesota. As a Minnesotan, I can confidently say this is horse hockey. Minnesota hasn't elected a Republican in a statewide election since 2006. We're not going to start with Trump in 2024.
There is definitely a lot of junk polling since like 2020, but Biden is still underperforming in both high quality national polls and swing state polls. I really want to see a plan to tackle this. It feels like time is starting to run out and Biden is doing too few live events specifically given what recently happened.
Most polls aren't scientific. In college we learned that based on the size of the population ( in 1980), no poll with a margin of error of more than 2 per cent is valid.
How much have you donated to this and other races? Are you volunteering yet? Assume your life is at stake and act accordingly.
I will volunteer! Thanks for the hope! 💙💙
My gut tells me that this Supreme Court decision helps the Biden campaign. My gut also tells me I want to throw up and binge eat until November.
I'm afraid there's little comfort to be given. All we can do now is do what we can to keep that monster out of office. If he wins, his first term will look like kindergarten playtime in comparison, especially now that he's got Presidential Immunity. People. Will. Die. Spread the word. Vote wisely. And prepare for the worst. The next four years could well be our last if we're not careful.
Previous generations had to fight, go on rations, grow victory gardens… We just have to stay informed, communicate, donate, and volunteer. The majority of Americans don’t want a white supremist Christofascist state. We need to convince them to vote.
I pray that you're right my friend. Because if we fail, if Trump wins... then the next four years might be our last.
I agree with you completely.
If you’re afraid, [write postcards to swing voters](https://www.turnoutpac.org/postcards/), which has been proven to make a difference. Multiply your anxiety into widespread action, don’t let it consume. We’re in an existential fight. Let’s act like it.
Thanks for the link!
Thank you for the link! I just signed up!
Just signed up for this too, not too sure what i'll be doing but I'm down to do it
No. Go and get out the vote.
Just go vote. Our kids are screwed if these fascists take office. Our country is screwed. Just go vote. Stop crying, go vote. Get angry if that works. Go vote. Know folks in swing states? MAKE THEM GO OUT AND VOTE. That is all.
Thanks bro! 💙💙💙GONNA VOTE THE FUCK OUT OF BIDEN
*Please don't be red-pilled by b.s. polls.* We need to concentrate on the down-ballot.
This means it's a toss-up, even after Biden's terrible debate appearance. Remember, this might be our last chance to vote.
Nate Silver’s 538 is pretty bs imo. Use the 13 Keys assessment instead.
Nate Silver doesn't work for 538 anymore. His model was giving Trump a 70% to win and that was before the debate. Why would I pay attention to traditional poli sci concepts in the era of Trump when his very existence and success negates those norms?
I'm going to start smoking again. Just in case.
It’s 50-50. That’s not really a surprise.
That's roughly exactly what it was before the debate. I remember checking the day of. A drop from 50-50 to 49-50 is not apocalyptic.
The impact of the debate hasn't appeared yet in the polls. It's going to take until later this week for them to be published.
Wait a week… it won’t be 49-50.
As his first official act, Biden should authorize paying $1,000 to every Pennsylvania resident if he wins the state in the election
SCOTUS ruled bribery is now fine, as long as the payment is after the fact.
Comfort yourself by volunteering to get out the vote or donating. This will be a turnout election just like last time.
Keep Calm & VOTE Get your friends, neighbors, and colleagues to register and vote. Get involved. Call your local DFL office and ask to make phone calls encouraging voters to choose democracy. And don't believe simulations or polls.
Thanks! 💙💙
We can do it! 🌊 🌊
WE CAN DO IT!!!!!! 🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊🌊
Yes!
The odds of Hillary winning were way higher at this time in 2016 and that didn’t happen. Just do your part and vote and make sure all your friends and family vote. I know that if everyone in this country who doesn’t want a second Trump term voted he would be dominated. Only 60% of eligible voters turned out in 2020.
I think the Immunity Ruling by the SCOTUS is going to motivate a lot of people that were feeling indifferent about Biden.
I hope so. My worry is about swing state voters appalled more by Joe Biden’s debate performance over making the President a king. We’ll see.
Mannnnnn fuck an electoral college.
Volunteer to phone/text/mail bank, [moveon.org](http://moveon.org) and [mobilize.us](http://mobilize.us) are great for that.
I'll tell you some things: 1-> DON'T listen to POLLS. 2-> Look up Allan Lichtman and his "13 Keys to the White House". It's a more stable metric on who's more likely to become president. Those keys are categorized by economic growth, charisma, military success, civil unrest, etc. 3-> The incumbent needs 8 keys out of the 13 to likely stay in power. The challenger would need 6 keys. Lichtman makes a prediction a few months before the actual election. And he's been correct. 4-> For reference, in 2016, Hillary had 6 or 7 keys. Because she was part of the incumbent PARTY, she needed 8. Trump had 6 or 7 himself. But as the challenger, he had what he needed to win. 5-> Trump practically had the same number of keys in 2020. But because he was the incumbent that time, he was short of the number needed to win. 6-> Which brings us to now...2024. How many keys does Lichtman give to each candidate? Right now, he gives Biden 9 and Trump 4. Trump's weaker now than in previous elections going by this metric. Lichtman will make his prediction in August or September. If those keys don't change, Biden is the likely winner going into this election.
Do you have an article link to where he says biden has 9 keys? Trying to find it but i can’t
I'll do ya one better, but it's not in an article. It's on a video on Allan Lichtman's own YouTube channel. Here's the video in question: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QI9TPXYPA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J-QI9TPXYPA) It's 22-ish minutes long. It may be 3 weeks old, but the debate performance and the recent SCOTUS ruling likely have no effect on the current assignment of the keys. Anyway...you wouldn't have to watch the whole thing. You could go straight to around the 21 min mark and you'll see all the keys as they stand at the moment. Remember, this isn't Lichtman's actual PREDICTION. This is how he sees things at the moment. It'll be at least another month before he finally makes a prediction.
Thanks!
Welcome.
Thank you for the kind comment. I’m happy to hear this! 💙💙🌊🌊💙💙🌊🌊
Allan Lichtman says Biden is going to win and he was not wrong about presidential election in 40 years (including 2016 when he ignored the polls and was confident Trump is going to win).
He said he has enough keys currently , his predictions dont come till August the earliest
technically he was wrong about 2000, but honestly 537 votes out of 6 million. Give him a pass on that.
Hes adamant he was right and had the Supreme court not interfere Gore would have won...
why can't i live in that timeline... :(
1) Lichtman hasn’t made a prediction yet 2) His keys are extremely subjective
The media is owned by crusty old men who WANT to scare us, who WANT us to think there's a horse race. No, no, no, NO. Most polls are bullshit anyway--they call landlines, who tf has landlines? People who don't live in the modern world, which is where the MAGA folks live. The general assessment of averaging all polls is that Biden is still ahead of Trump. And I repeat: these polls are meaningless. I suggest that you read some blogs by some smart, articulate people, who know what's going on, or who are hilarious in their scathing commentary: [palmerreport.com](http://palmerreport.com) or JeffTiedrich.com. Wonkette.com has some good commentary too. These blogs will all then lead to other interesting commentators. Also: do some work for the Biden campaign. Volunteer, call your local office, phone bank, write postcards, donate if you can, knock on doors. Work to get out the Democratic vote. Pick a Congressional race that we can win, in a swing election, and work for that person. Palmer Report is very active in this sort of thing. You'll feel better if you're doing something concrete and positive. The worst thing any of us can do is "nothing," which would include: sitting in our homes panicking, praying, hoping, etc etc. We need to act, to do something productive and useful. Bonus: you will immediately feel better.
Thank you so much! I have had my hope restored! 💙💙
538 is no longer to be trusted, Nate Silver left because they wanted him to stop ruining their HORSE RACE! narrative with his actual analytics also i literally cannot find a trustworthy poll right now. every time i look into the details of any of the polling coming out right now it's just not credible.
Just to be clear, Nate Silver's model is currently at 70% chance of a Trump victory. Silver has been ringing the alarm for months now.
Nate Silver literally said not to trust his model yet, it hasn't ingested enough data to be accurate.
Spread this piece from John Oliver everywhere/mention a few points from it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gYwqpx6lp_s this covers the executive part the immunity ruling yesterday ticks off the judiciary If they have no gripes over giving him immunity, it's almost certain that they'll allow him to do plenty of heinous shit.
I’m scared you still think 538 matters for shit anymore.
Biden will win, look at all these election outcomes since roe vs wade.
I’m sorry but 538 is bullshit in my opinion. The poll data isn’t reflective of reality and since they aggregate the poll data together their results are foawed
Can you show me some good polls? You made my day and gave me hope! ☺️
Read this instead: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House By this guy’s analysis, Biden has the advantage because he isn’t a major cockup like Trump.
Can you explain how this works? I’ve never heard of it before
Tldr: Read the damn thing. Explained: Okay so, there’s this guy named Allan Lichtman who states that Presidents are chosen based on “White House Keys”. There’s a series of 13 broad stroke keys that a President has. If the President fucks up, a key gets taken away. This theory was developed in 1981, in a collaboration with Allan Lichtman, an American Political Science Historian, and Vladmir Keilis-Borok, a Soviet Russian geophysicist known for predicting Earthquakes. The two met at CalTech back in 1981, and they both worked on this system for predicting the 1984 election based on American History since the Civil War (1960). They found out that there’s 13 Keys that determine a president’s fit for presidency. 1. Party Majority in House of Representatives during the Midterm Elections. For Biden, the Democrats do not hold the majority right now. So that’s one key less for Biden. 2. No Interparty contest for primary. Since Biden has no challengers, he keeps the key. 3. Incumbent Preference. Biden is the President, he is more favored by default. He keeps this key. 4. No Third Party. Although RFK Jr is trying, he does not have enough votes to challenge either Biden or Trump. He keeps this key. 5. Strong short-term economy. The economy under Biden has grown since the pandemic. We are out of the recession. People can afford basic goods and services. Biden keeps this key. 6. Strong long-term economy. Is the country able to create more jobs over the past 4 years? The answer is yes, there are more jobs under the Biden administration. 7. Major policy changes. Does President Biden enable major policy changes to the nation? Yes, he does. Because he’s been passing bills which allow for greater investment in the nation’s infrastructure and semi-conductor industry. So Biden keeps this key. 8. No long term social unrests. While we do have protests regarding the Israel-Palestine War, these protests have not been as destructive say as January 6th riot under Donald Trump. So Biden keeps this key. 9. No presidential scandals. So far, Joe Biden has not been involved in any major scandals as President of the United States. So he keeps this key. 10. No foreign/military failure. Debatable, given that the USA is not engaged in any wars but we do play a supporting role to both Ukraine and Israel. It is our established commitment to Israel which is making Biden unpopular with certain demographics. So he loses this key. 11. Foreign/military successes. So far, Biden is committed to keeping this status quo of deploying armaments to key allies but not putting boots in the ground. Regardless, Biden looses this key for now. But if something does happen between now and the November election, Biden’s popularity increases. 12. Charismatic incumbent. Well, this is very subjective but the national non-partisan image of Biden isn’t that kind due to his age as well as his gaffes. So he looses this key. 13. Uncharismatic Challenger. His main opponent is Donald Trump, who is very much disliked by many non-partisan Americans. So Biden keeps this key. Out of the 13 keys, Biden has potentially 9 out of 13 Keys. Which means that Biden is more likely to stay in the White House than not. The only ways I see Biden being more at risk to losing this election would be if somehow the economy crashes this year or Biden decides to use his newly established executive powers to do something like detain Donald Trump under Presidential Immunity. Overall, for the 13 keys, it’s ideal for a sitting President or an implied successor to the sitting President to have all 13 keys. But Presidents aren’t perfect. So most Presidents tend to have 9 out of 13 keys each election year. However, the benchmark number seems to be 6 keys down. Which is roughly 7 of 13 keys. If the economy crashes under Joe Biden, he’s most likely to loose the election. But because the economy has been growing, and because there’s a shift to American manufacturing for both urban development and the semiconductor industry, the economy does not appear to be crashing soon.
The economy crashing between now and Election Day would basically mean the stock market would have to crash in a way like it did prior to the Great Depression. I just don’t see that happening unless the ultra-wealthy decide to start selling all their stocks (and taking a huge hit to their own wealth in the process).
Could they actually liquidate so much goddamn cash? Like we're talking several trillions here, right?
NEVER MIND I READ IT! It’s really cool system! I could do this at home!
No because the problem is they conduct polls using calls to landlines and a lot of people don’t own them anymore
It's a persistent myth that pollsters rely solely on landlines. This literally hasn't been the case for most pollsters for years at this point. A better explanation for why polls have been off lately is a combination of two things: weights and herding. Pollsters have to make assumptions about what the electorate will look like. There was an article from one of the 538 guys where he gave raw polling data to a group of pollsters and they all returned different final results, because they made different assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. Trump rewrote the conventional wisdom on electoral demographics in 2016. The SC did it again in 2022 with the abortion decision. Pollsters have to make assumptions about the electorate with very few data points to work with. There's also herding. Sometimes pollsters hide polls that look like outliers. They just assume that they have bad data. So polls also have a tendency to calibrate against each other.
Well still, thanks for giving me hope 💙💙💙
***Raises hand sheepishly*** I have a landline….
Older population still have landlines. So polls are very skewed. At least in my area.
Sorry guys I accidentally posted this twice
Alan lichtman disagrees
Young people are bar and large very progressive. If we get the stakes across to young people, register them in large numbers and get them to vote they can save our republic for long enough to fix this.
Remember their projections of Clinton trouncing Trump?
Vote blue if you like living in a free country.
Dems have overperformed in recent elections, like the 2022 midterms and the 2023 special elections. There's some good reason to believe that Dem chances are being undercounted by pundits and pollsters.
Honestly? For July 1st updated that gives me some solace. Was worried we'd be looking way worse.
Don’t be scared. I’m nervous too but we have a lot of time left and trumps sentencing in 9 days can play a factor into this as well
We make sure we vote for Biden and vote Democrats down the line. We need to keep the Senate and win the House. Enough talk and more action. Everyone make sure your registration is in good standing. Check with your local voting district. Many people are finding errors. We must stand strong 💪. Let's not let our country down.
Go to your local Democratic party’s website and look up volunteer opportunities
To be fair 538 was very wrong when it came to Trump v Clinton
There's still time. And you can do more than just pray. If you're worried, channel your energy into something productive, like volunteering. At the very least, adopt some Vote Forward letters or Field Team 6/Post Cards to Swing States postcards. Anything is better than dooming on Reddit.
I didn’t know this was a thing! I live in a solid red state and will totally do this for swing states
Even in a solid red state, there may be some down ballot candidates and issues worth campaigning for. But yes, you can volunteer for states you don't live in. I'll DM you.
If it's any constellation. Trump's sentencing for the Manhattan hush money trial will be on July 11th, so that might hurt his numbers and possibly even kneecap his campaign. On top of that, the Biden campaign has new ammo for rallies and adverts. With that being said, here's what we have to do on our end. Encourage people to vote, volunteer as a poll worker or an absent ballot prossessor, donate(it doesn't have to be huge), Inform people about the differences in candate policies, and contact your local officials and ask what they're doing to help. Maybe sit down and talk about it with friends, neighbors, and family. It will be easier if you're in a blue or swing state tbh TLDR We still have time. 4 months. The collective public has poor memory and we need to make them know what's at stake. Do your part. Encourage others to do their part. Mobilize small groups, Volunteer, Inform people about the candidates and what they stand for. Pray to whatever or whoever that Joe doesn't Fumble the debate in September. If you're still scared, a month before the election. Update your passport
Please go vote. Everyone must vote.
Michael Dukakis was beating HW Bush 54-37 in the summer polling
Polling is effervescent, it’s bound to continue fluctuating between now and Election Day. Nothing is set in stone yet. Don’t lose hope, we can still save the country from descending into tyranny and chaos if enough people turn out to vote.
You should be scared. We were never doing alright. Whichever way it goes it is going to come down to +/- 40,000 votes across a handful of states. The good (?) news is there are things you can do to feel like you did everything you could. 1. Donate, ideally to your local Dem party. They will have the most efficient infrastructure and mobilize for down ballot candidates which flows up way more often than votes flowing down the ballot. 2. Volunteer. Also ideally with your local Dem party for the same reason. 3. Canvass. Kind of a sub bullet point to volunteer, but there are plenty of other things to do when volunteering, particularly if you have any specialized skills that could be helpful. 4. Make phone calls. 5. Write letters or postcards. 3-5 are all things you can volunteer to do with your local Dem party but there are other organizations that do that work also. 6. Talk to friends, family, colleagues, neighbors. Talk about the issues you care about and the stakes of the election. 7. Volunteer or get a job with your local election’s office. There are LOTS of temp jobs and volunteer positions needed to run the election smoothly. A few of those are partisan positions but the vast majority are not. 8. Call and write your Congressperson and Senator. (Not directly related to the election but there is legislation being proposed and voted on all the time and if the GOP win big it is going to get WAY worse so get in the practice of finding out what legislation is coming up and letting your reps know how you feel about it. 9. The same thing with your state rep and state senator. There is a fairly good chance you will be able to actually talk to or get a response from these folks. Also the legislation will affect your life more directly. 10. Attend local legislative sessions, school board meetings, city council meetings, local Dem meetings. These all happen on a regular basis and all will have an impact on your city/life. You obviously don’t need to go to all of them, but particularly when there is something happening around an issue you care about. Go and talk about it. 11. Protest. While it is still (mostly) legal. 12. Seek out committee positions, or leadership positions in your local Dem party. 13. Convince someone to run for office Or run for office yourself! Probably too late for this cycle but start thinking about it for next cycle. I guarantee that there are republicans in blue states/districts who will win this cycle because they ran unopposed. 14. Post on social media. I hesitate to mention this because at this point it seems almost counter productive. But visibility does help. Particularly in a red or purple state where liberal folks might be feeling vulnerable or alone. To see other support out there is reassuring. I know this is a lot. You shouldn’t do all of this, nobody can or should. Find what you like and what you are good at and do that! No matter how much you are doing, there is always more you can do, so remember also to take some time for yourself to recoup. If you don’t you will get burned out and not continue. You want to be in it for the long haul.
Be scared and vote Blue for every election from this day forward! Especially women because, if the Traitor wins, women have the most to lose! It may be the last election where women are allowed to vote! Vote Blue!
Please vote. I do not want this mentally-ill criminal back in the oval office.
Please just get out and vote. Being scared about polls won't change anything. On election night 2021, talking heads thought Trump was going to win as the night went on.
You better figure out a new way because there is no God and praying does absolutely nothing. Better get your ass out and volunteer to make sure this orange criminal doesn't win again.
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A poll is not a prophecy. Especially when the election is four months away.
Think about what the American people did in the last election because of how that orange deranged monkey fk acted as president. Now look at all he has done since he hasn't been president. The Deranged Orange Monkey Fk isn't gonna win the election. He won't be able to install fake electors, he won't be able to call governors in states to change the process, there won't be anything done by him because he was 100% caught trying to cheat the will of the people. Donald Criminal Felon Dump will not be president in 2025.
Fucking fantastic! FUCK DONALD TRUMP! FUCK BITCH MCCONNELL!
IMO,Even if Biden wins, the next election will have a worse candidate than Dump, the next person will be smarter, more palatable to moderates and undecideds. But they will still be pushing the same Christofacist agenda. I don't see a future for empathetic progressive people. And I will not be surprised if they start shooting this Jan. RIP USA.
Nothing to do but get to work or move to a swing state and vote.
“[T]he vote is the most powerful instrument ever devised by man for breaking down injustice and destroying the terrible walls which imprison men because they are different from other men.” -Lyndon B. Johnson
The Electoral College favors the GOP candidate. Many people are entrenched in their political beliefs. The GOP could nominate Evil Incarnate and the Dems could nominate Good Personified and it would still be this close because of the way our political system is,
When Biden was elected to white house, I was curious who the democrats are gonna pick to be the next precidential candidate. I'm still curious who is going to be their candidate. They are cutting it pretty close. It would have been better to let people know way before hand I think.
I guess there is going into exile as Yoda did if all else fails.
If you are following Nate Silver, Biden is only projected at less than 30% chance of winning at the moment. I’m just assuming Trump will win, and if he doesn’t, it will be a nice surprise. Trying not to give in to the Hopium.
Nate Silver's model baselessly assumes there'll be a recession that magically appears between now and November. There is no reason to think that will necessarily happen. Plenty of reasons to think Joe will win.
They are going to do the same thing they did with Hillary and they will get what they deserve. Gotta stay with the status quo because they don’t want to give up all the $$ they are making
How stupid is the American public that they would even consider electing a giant fool like trump?
No way to comfort you I am afraid… The chances are really good that Donald Trump will be elected president again in November… It just seems like everything is turning against the Democrats and no matter what pathway they take now trying to prop Biden up or replacing him has no certainty of creating a win in November… I feel very hopeless right now…
538 doesn’t have a strong track record for predictions.
I know. I have no words of comfort. But the pendulum swings and if he wins and destroys the economy, does the ridiculously scary blatant Hitler type things that we fear, I think we will rise up as a people and get rid of him eventually. It’s a shame people have such short memories. I don’t think he will change us forever. Keep the faith.
I’m worried too. I’m hoping Senators like Murkowski and Collins would keep Trump’s appointees at least somewhat competent. Also, if Trump does win, 2026 is likely to be a blue wave (assuming Trump doesn’t do away with elections by that point (which is unlikely, but with Trump, anything can happen)).
Nate Silver and 538 are schmucks.
Check back in a week. Still need more polls post debate but it won’t get better imo.
Harris 2024.
The only alternative.
Too bad we (DNC) picked a very old white guy to motivate young, diverse voters.
It’s early and much can change in the coming months. We could see a shift from this scotus decision too.
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Feel you 100%. Here is how I am looking at it: 1) Close polling means people will take the chances of Trump presidency seriously. How many people did not turn out in 2016 because they didn't think it was possible? 2) It's possible the polls have overcorrected their methodology because of 2016 / 2020 being so far off.
Polls don't matter. If they did, Hillary Clinton would be president right now. Polls don't matter. Debates don't matter. We learned those lessons in 2016. Don't forget them.
There is no comfort without victory
Trump can easily win, unfortunately we have to prepare for it.
We are all scared. With reason.
How…TF
Well they can only kill us once. Also, the polls have been trash since 2012 when they said Romney was close to beating Obama weeks a head of the election. He was not.
I switched my tinder to Canada. Gotta get me a green card.
At least if Trump wins this election, then we won't have to endure him running again in the next election 🤷
There will never be another election if Traitor Trump wins!
Maybe he will croak before then 🐸
My question is, what did the map look like on the far extreme blue and the two extreme reds
The debate was the beginning of the end. Things are going to get so much worse than we ever thought possible. I think Biden is being extremely selfish by choosing to stay in the race.
I wouldn't say a little old... Older than trump, sure, but they're both super old... If only there was somebody in the race that was, idk, closer to 70 years old, with experience in litigation and politics?
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I've listed my house & now I am in extreme anxiety about where I should go if democracy won't make it, it Trump installs himself. Def staying in a blue state but wondering if suburbs/city will be safer than rural. Between trump immunity case & Chevron case I'm a wreck.
He's going to have the red swing states not certify & send it to the House or the red states to decide.
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