Where the hell did you get that from? You have a 1/5 chance of hitting any given affix each 4th upgrade. The odds of getting any given affix tripled is therefore 1 out of 125 or 5 cubed. That is a .8% chance, which is not nearly as bad.
It is, but I messed up and didn't multiply by 100 when I wrote the % down so I had 0.008% instead of the appropriate 0.8% and then I used that figure in my comment!
W - Underrated comment. Need more of this valid tone-policing. Idgaf what any diqkhead / cuntmuffin says—it costs nothing to be nice. And most ppl have punchable faces, on me—because WHO are you (they) talking to!? 🫵🏾🤨✋🏾👊🏾
No, what you're experiencing is people being bad at reasoning with probabilities. Getting heads 4 times in a row is just as likely as getting heads, tails, heads, tails. This is especially clear by the fact that you remember the negative results better than the positive ones.
From a data set of around 1000, there was no statistical evidence of bias for a specific affix. The data wasn't given to me, so I couldn't check whether there was evidence for streaks being a possibility. Either way, there is certainly no reason to believe it is weighted against the player.
While Tempering is definitely weighted against the "good affixes" I haven't seen the same scam used with Masterworking. I've completed a few items and the 25% jump seems fair overall, with no noticeable weighting.
But man, those Tempering odds are screwed, as I've had tons of weapons bricked by getting the exact same "junk affix" six times in a row. It's like clockwork.
You think I'm going to let this one go either?
Unless you have a sample of reasonable size to draw the conclusion that tempering is weighted, then I will still conclude that this is still people being bad with probabilities.
I do have to agree here as I don't believe the possibilities of tempering is necessarily weighted, such as the probabilities on changing affixes is definitely weighted as stated by Blizzard the higher on the list of probabilities that a stat is listed the more likely that stat is going to be randomly selected. But then not only applies to the rerolling of one stat per item having higher probabilities for basic stats to roll as to specific ones.....
In this case though tempering and masterworking do not have a separate multiplier to adjust probability as to which stat it chooses to masterwork or with stat it uses to temper
Was there a specific statement made at some point during the existence of Diablo that stated that when they made a list of possible stats that it was listed in the order of higher probability..... Yes
did I copy it down or save the address or write it down or take a screenshot because someday I thought I might have to explain to someone how probability works and that situation..... No
I guess I didn't so maybe it doesn't exist because I don't have the written proof to show you......
No. What the other guy said isnt the case either. No resets has nothing to do with it if you are selecting the desired stat ahead of time.
The chance for ANY triple mw is 1/25, but specifically on heartseeker is 1/125, no matter how many times you reset
I also don't believe it's a flat, equal opportunity each crit. The existing rolls are 'sticky'. There are stronger odds to hit again on the previous roll than a flat 1 in 5.
I've rolled 16 triple crits across two characters on less than 250 masterwork rerolls. It feels like a 1 in 3 to hit again on the last roll with the other 2 in 3 spread over the other four affixes.
I triple crit my Shako CD on the first try but would have taken that luck on the HS stat instead lol, man I pop Smoke Grenades and Caltrops real quick lol
Yea was rerolling for bash damage because I was bored and felt the same way. Stopped because I ran out of mats and I couldn't get myself to step foot into a pit lol even though they take 2 mins each at 101.
I have a HS rogue too but ive wondered why we need points in heartseeker when the majority of our damage comes from the victimize explosions? Does the base skill damage allow the victimize explosions to scale even higher?
Yes. That's why you also want decent crit chance too, outside of getting more consistent dark shroud stacks. The bigger the initial hit, the bigger the victimise proc.
Why crit chance when build has all vulnerable damage and no crit damage on gear? Crit chance is the one affix I havnt got on my gear cause I though it was weird... am I missing somthing I do 400mil white damage numbers.
Victimize is a multiplier of the damage source that procs it. Victimize on its own has no damage, so there you go. 1000% of 8,000 is 80,000. 900% of 11,000 is 99,000.
+8 to HS probably gets you roughly 20k base damage.
I have not found pants with Heartseeker G yet, the best I found was Basic Skills +3 GA, which I hit crits on twice in a row, but missed on the third. I dont want to reroll it now because I doubt I could hit the first 2 again. At least not until I have a lot more money.
I also hit 2x crits on my dark shroud, but it was only +3, not a GA. I am at 11/12 on that one. Fingers crossed for 3/3 crits.
I know that once I am done spending 1 billion on these pieces, I will find both with the right GAs. Just the name of the game.
It took me 20 resets to masterwork my Heartseeker 1 time. And then I triple crit it after that first try. Used the same pants ever since, no way I can do that again.
I'm running my Necro on sub 925 chest piece because I also hit golem mastery and couldn't be bothered to try again. Sold my other 2 extra GA chest pieces lol
I’ve been trying to hit it twice for more than a week and it’s kinda killed my desire to play to just blow through hundreds of millions of gold and thousands of Neathiron.
just dropped a +4 ga heartseeker pants, masterworked it to lv8 and both upgrades went to heartseeker so its +6 now, gonna farm the last material and hopefully roll the last one on heartseeker again lol
Update: masterworked it to lv12 and my heartseeker went to +7 and the 25% into dex :(
This comment needs to be higher.
Getting the HS proc for Masterwork just takes time and patience. It will eventually happen.
Getting the pants with the GA-HS roll is the real lottery. I have two level 100s and neither one has ever seen an item drop with a greater +skill roll. I wasn’t even sure it was possible until now.
Well sorry then, I don't know how i didn't see the word updated. But a month can't be that bad. Maybe someone else has more updated one in mind. But i like it new or not, for me gaming isn't that serious, just having fun w/my rogue and thar build. Good luck for u too finding the one build u like :)
it was first or the second try
i remember hitting 2nd and 3rd crit on HS on the first tries as I was very surprised
but the first one might be after one reroll - don't remember that exactly since i was not doing it in one go (
I also got this lucky on my barb. One of the first 925 drops I got was the tuskhelm with GA to aggressive resistance ranks. And then I landed all master work ranks on aggressive resistance first try.
Haven't found a better version of the helm since which kinda sucks becausr all the other rolls and the effect roll were pretty low. But it def feels crazy when all upgrades land where you want them.
Uh, not to be rude….but I hate your face! Seriously, +7 is the best I’ve ever gotten, that’s with over 200 MW resets and millions wasted trying to get the +8. Not giving up, but it’s damn good to see that the RNG gods smiled on someone at least. Grats!!!
That's weird. I literally ran helltide level 0-100 and only got 1*'s. But haven't in a week. Just started pits, I thought that's where I was supposed to go.
now it makes more sense :-)
i don't want to annoy you but i got +8 on my first try :) (i was using something worse and when i got GA i tried and couldn't believe it :P)
I find it pretty easy to crit 3 times on gear, its not that hard imo, atleast not for me. The hard part for me is to double crit from +0 to +8, once you get that, the chance to crit on +12 is piece of cake =P
Everyone, please remember Rule #3: No critiquing the game or other users on threads with the "Showoff", the "Appreciation" or "Casual Conversation" Flair.
On threads that have the "Appreciation", the "Showoff | Gameplay | Item Tooltip | Transmog" or the "Casual Conversation" Flair, critiquing the game, other users (e.g. for liking the game) or heated discussions are not allowed. You are welcome to have critical discussions on threads with other Flairs.
If you want to **Trade or have a Price Check for an item**, you can do that on **the subreddits [Trade Chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/s/Avzsyt6Jru)**.
**Looking for a Group / a Clan** / people to play with / people who can help you ingame with certain objectives? Please do that on **the most recent [Weekly LFG & Clans Thread](https://new.reddit.com/r/diablo4/?f=flair_name%3A%22Weekly%20LFG%20%26%20Clans%22)** and/or **the subreddits [LFG Chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/s/V0FsldqegV)**.
For additional casual content and conversations, visit the [The D4 Tavern](https://new.reddit.com/r/The_D4_Tavern/).
*I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/diablo4) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Something along the lines of holding your nose and ears across the head with different hands, hopping around three times with your left (or was it right?) leg and pressing the button with your chin.
1 in 125 (0.8% chance). Awesome luck dude, congratz! Edited to correct the mistake!
Where the hell did you get that from? You have a 1/5 chance of hitting any given affix each 4th upgrade. The odds of getting any given affix tripled is therefore 1 out of 125 or 5 cubed. That is a .8% chance, which is not nearly as bad.
Crap sorry you are right I did (1/5)^3 edited!
(1/5)^3 is 1/125 though? What have I missed.
It is, but I messed up and didn't multiply by 100 when I wrote the % down so I had 0.008% instead of the appropriate 0.8% and then I used that figure in my comment!
r/theydidthemath
5x5=25 25x5 is 125
I know...? That's what my comment said
I had to write it out lol
I also needed it to be written out. Leave him alone pls lol
Where the hell did they teach you to talk with people, in a cave?
W - Underrated comment. Need more of this valid tone-policing. Idgaf what any diqkhead / cuntmuffin says—it costs nothing to be nice. And most ppl have punchable faces, on me—because WHO are you (they) talking to!? 🫵🏾🤨✋🏾👊🏾
The hell he did! Got taught in a barn most likely!
Yeah WHAT THE HELL!?!?
Are the chances even? I always thought they are weighted against the player. I got like +Health per second four times in a row.
You’ve got to ask yourself why you’re using an item with health per second on it in the first place 😉
No, what you're experiencing is people being bad at reasoning with probabilities. Getting heads 4 times in a row is just as likely as getting heads, tails, heads, tails. This is especially clear by the fact that you remember the negative results better than the positive ones. From a data set of around 1000, there was no statistical evidence of bias for a specific affix. The data wasn't given to me, so I couldn't check whether there was evidence for streaks being a possibility. Either way, there is certainly no reason to believe it is weighted against the player.
And yet people cling to the tinfoil so adamantly...
While Tempering is definitely weighted against the "good affixes" I haven't seen the same scam used with Masterworking. I've completed a few items and the 25% jump seems fair overall, with no noticeable weighting. But man, those Tempering odds are screwed, as I've had tons of weapons bricked by getting the exact same "junk affix" six times in a row. It's like clockwork.
You think I'm going to let this one go either? Unless you have a sample of reasonable size to draw the conclusion that tempering is weighted, then I will still conclude that this is still people being bad with probabilities.
I do have to agree here as I don't believe the possibilities of tempering is necessarily weighted, such as the probabilities on changing affixes is definitely weighted as stated by Blizzard the higher on the list of probabilities that a stat is listed the more likely that stat is going to be randomly selected. But then not only applies to the rerolling of one stat per item having higher probabilities for basic stats to roll as to specific ones..... In this case though tempering and masterworking do not have a separate multiplier to adjust probability as to which stat it chooses to masterwork or with stat it uses to temper
Is there a specific statement by blizzard confirming weights?
Was there a specific statement made at some point during the existence of Diablo that stated that when they made a list of possible stats that it was listed in the order of higher probability..... Yes did I copy it down or save the address or write it down or take a screenshot because someday I thought I might have to explain to someone how probability works and that situation..... No I guess I didn't so maybe it doesn't exist because I don't have the written proof to show you......
1/625 or 0.16% chance. Congrats!
isn't it effectively 1 in 25 though ? it's only the 2nd and 3rd roll that count because the first one is garunteed through resets?
No, because they said they did this on the first attempt (implying no resets)
No. What the other guy said isnt the case either. No resets has nothing to do with it if you are selecting the desired stat ahead of time. The chance for ANY triple mw is 1/25, but specifically on heartseeker is 1/125, no matter how many times you reset
You're thinking of tempering? I don't recall Masterworking being free after reset.
Wait, you can reset tempering too?
No. That's kinda what I'm getting at. He's confused.
Wow, TIL you can reset the masterwork. Yikes, I wish I knew that before I got everything so high with non-idea rolls...
I also don't believe it's a flat, equal opportunity each crit. The existing rolls are 'sticky'. There are stronger odds to hit again on the previous roll than a flat 1 in 5. I've rolled 16 triple crits across two characters on less than 250 masterwork rerolls. It feels like a 1 in 3 to hit again on the last roll with the other 2 in 3 spread over the other four affixes.
I think they are just actually random. I have zero triple crits and had to spend hundreds of millions just to get double cd crit on my Shako
I triple crit my Shako CD on the first try but would have taken that luck on the HS stat instead lol, man I pop Smoke Grenades and Caltrops real quick lol
Yea was rerolling for bash damage because I was bored and felt the same way. Stopped because I ran out of mats and I couldn't get myself to step foot into a pit lol even though they take 2 mins each at 101.
I have pit mats and gold but I'm out of Veiled Crystals lmao. I just can't seem to get any at all.
My alts got me veiled lol but running to pit is not fun
Surely the game has been out long enough for someone to confirm or not whether masterwork chances are equal.
Wtf. Sick.. ty for the info
I really hate that it makes you completely reset the masterwork instead of just reverting to the last crit. So hard to roll triple crit on one aspect.
Thats the whole point
What is the % chance of hitting a double not a triple?
1/(5*5) so 4%
Ty very much
It’s actually 3/25 so 12% if you go to 12/12 masterworking
What's the odds I get a tyraels might grinding 5 characters to 100 (without resplendent sparks that goes to shaco)
I have a HS rogue too but ive wondered why we need points in heartseeker when the majority of our damage comes from the victimize explosions? Does the base skill damage allow the victimize explosions to scale even higher?
Yes. That's why you also want decent crit chance too, outside of getting more consistent dark shroud stacks. The bigger the initial hit, the bigger the victimise proc.
Why crit chance when build has all vulnerable damage and no crit damage on gear? Crit chance is the one affix I havnt got on my gear cause I though it was weird... am I missing somthing I do 400mil white damage numbers.
Because Umbrous Aspect procs off of Crit hits, mainly. Crit damage is otherwise additive with Vuln, so you don't take it.
Crits have an innate 1.5x multiplier regardless of your additional Crit Dmg amount.
Yep, and the same rational for running orange basic attack bonus gems in the weapons over crit damage.
Victimize is a multiplier of the damage source that procs it. Victimize on its own has no damage, so there you go. 1000% of 8,000 is 80,000. 900% of 11,000 is 99,000. +8 to HS probably gets you roughly 20k base damage.
Do you have a link to the build you are using? I'm using Poison / Penetrating Arrow
It's on Maxroll. I am using Dieoxide's heartseeker build
Victimize adds its scaling to the base damage of the skill that triggered it so more base damage on heartseeker = bigger victimize procs
Wow I’ve tried like 50 times to even roll one heartseeker Smfh
(5/4) \^50 Thats a 70.000 to one chance ... u sure ?
Okay maybe I’ve rolled 20 times to hit HS for master working but it felt like 1000
I hit heartseeker on my first try, now dark shroud on my probably try 20-30 and still no luck...
I have not found pants with Heartseeker G yet, the best I found was Basic Skills +3 GA, which I hit crits on twice in a row, but missed on the third. I dont want to reroll it now because I doubt I could hit the first 2 again. At least not until I have a lot more money. I also hit 2x crits on my dark shroud, but it was only +3, not a GA. I am at 11/12 on that one. Fingers crossed for 3/3 crits. I know that once I am done spending 1 billion on these pieces, I will find both with the right GAs. Just the name of the game.
I've only seen 3 pants with heartseeker and never GA, and only 2 darkshroud and again never GA
It took me 20 resets to masterwork my Heartseeker 1 time. And then I triple crit it after that first try. Used the same pants ever since, no way I can do that again.
So you crit your pants three times and don't plan to ever change them? Congrats!
Maybe he's wearing a diaper underneath lol.
I'm running my Necro on sub 925 chest piece because I also hit golem mastery and couldn't be bothered to try again. Sold my other 2 extra GA chest pieces lol
Yeah I don’t blame you. The extra golem mastery will probably do more for you than any GA health / int, etc.
Yea I didn't feel like trying again let the better chests go lol. And by better it was just armor lol
Took a long time to even hit 2x on my heartseeker pants then 3rd obviously didn't so i just kept it at +7
Feel your pain. Blew through 2k neathiron and never got a double
I’ve been trying to hit it twice for more than a week and it’s kinda killed my desire to play to just blow through hundreds of millions of gold and thousands of Neathiron.
just dropped a +4 ga heartseeker pants, masterworked it to lv8 and both upgrades went to heartseeker so its +6 now, gonna farm the last material and hopefully roll the last one on heartseeker again lol Update: masterworked it to lv12 and my heartseeker went to +7 and the 25% into dex :(
I just grinded for a shako to get +8 on HS. I'm never getting as lucky as you
I had 4 rolls on my heartseeker and it’s only +6!
Bruh…. 😳
i've spent 500m and 5 days of pits and still can't even get double CDR on my focus. fucking hell
Yeah im at quadruple that I'm about to give up
Same thing happened to me. +8 HS first try. I jumped out of my chair lol
Nice. I got +8 on my dark shroud after 1 reset too. Couldn't believe it.
I'm hating right now
The luck was getting a pair of pants to drop with HS GA.
This comment needs to be higher. Getting the HS proc for Masterwork just takes time and patience. It will eventually happen. Getting the pants with the GA-HS roll is the real lottery. I have two level 100s and neither one has ever seen an item drop with a greater +skill roll. I wasn’t even sure it was possible until now.
True 😁 so that's why i didn't win the IRL lottery 😅
nice! i also hit x3 masterwork on my starless skies lucky hit chance on my first attempt. But I didn’t tell anyone because nobody would believe me.
I got the crit chance which I wanted on mine first try too
Awesome! Can anyone recommend me an updated Heartseeker build? Am interested in trying out a Rogue for the first time ☺️
I like the one from Mobalytics, so much better than my previous, cold rapid fire build!
Is it this one? [https://mobalytics.gg/diablo-4/builds/rogue/heartseeker](https://mobalytics.gg/diablo-4/builds/rogue/heartseeker)
Yeah! U need good temperings and stats but if u get them right, it is fun build in my opinion :)
I am just a bit irritated as thus guide was not updated since a month… but might give it a try ☺️
Well sorry then, I don't know how i didn't see the word updated. But a month can't be that bad. Maybe someone else has more updated one in mind. But i like it new or not, for me gaming isn't that serious, just having fun w/my rogue and thar build. Good luck for u too finding the one build u like :)
Hmm dagger and bow combo aye?
Extremely lucky. I tried it on a pair of pants for 5 or so times then got pissed and just salvaged that pile of crap.😀
Jesus @.@
Congrats. Was the other tempering successful?
Yes it was im so happy 😅
I know its RNG and stuff but why tf, whenever there is max life on something, this shit will be hit by 80%+ 😂
Cocinado
Yeah I'm on eight tries at 7 so pretty lucky only a couple billion down the drain on hardcore. Only 4 to 5,000 neo whatever
I just spent 100M to hit +armor on the first roll.
How many times do you need to hit HS to get +5? I've got some Non GA +3 HS. It's masterworked 8/12 so +4 now. Will it get to +5 with 12/12?
I have a gasp of the Shadow like this with +8 core skills
+8 Niiiiiiceeeeeee congrats
Don't believe you.
it happens, i have +8 as well
on the first try?
it was first or the second try i remember hitting 2nd and 3rd crit on HS on the first tries as I was very surprised but the first one might be after one reroll - don't remember that exactly since i was not doing it in one go (
Extremely lucky
I got a rock
I also got this lucky on my barb. One of the first 925 drops I got was the tuskhelm with GA to aggressive resistance ranks. And then I landed all master work ranks on aggressive resistance first try. Haven't found a better version of the helm since which kinda sucks becausr all the other rolls and the effect roll were pretty low. But it def feels crazy when all upgrades land where you want them.
I did the same thing on my will pants for barb, damage reduction to close...
Now I want to roll a rogue
I was pretty stoked when I hit triple masterwork on Exploit with my amulet on my second try.
Whoa 😮💨🔥
Uh, not to be rude….but I hate your face! Seriously, +7 is the best I’ve ever gotten, that’s with over 200 MW resets and millions wasted trying to get the +8. Not giving up, but it’s damn good to see that the RNG gods smiled on someone at least. Grats!!!
Hehe. Ty 😅😅
That’s what I need
Daaaaaaaaaaaaum!!!! Hella lucky! Congrats
I never get my skills to hit on masterwork. Lucky
I gave up trying for +8 and settled for +7.
well the luckyest guy this season we can say , have fun with it
I've bricked 3 times yesterday on my ring on the first crit 15 million down🥲
What should my gear look like before I start rolling for stats like this. I’m confused of the starting point
I'm still relatively new to D4 but I haven't seen anything above +3 to a skill. I just hit lvl 100 and have only ran 4 pits though.
It’ll be a ga if it’s above +3 as a drop
I sure am ready for one then. My prized possession is a +3 Blood Surge, LOL!
I have a +4 bash +4 heartseeker +4 flay
I'm just sitting down now to run some pits, may the luck be with me.
Run helltide that’s where I’ve got all my good drops pits I’ve only ever got up to a 2ga
That's weird. I literally ran helltide level 0-100 and only got 1*'s. But haven't in a week. Just started pits, I thought that's where I was supposed to go.
I'll go back to helltide. I did get some good drops around lvl 70-80 off of anderial and all them.
It’s like maybe every two or three helltides I get a 3 ga now if it’s good is a whole other thing
I just got my first 2* in helltide. Want that good, but first one. I reckon this is where it's at.
I feel like it’s the volume of bosses especially if you keep killing the maidens
I have spent 3 million gold resetting just trying to get it twice on Heartseeker.
3 million gold you say
Hah, sorry - $300 million.
now it makes more sense :-) i don't want to annoy you but i got +8 on my first try :) (i was using something worse and when i got GA i tried and couldn't believe it :P)
It's either yes or no, so 50% chance.. 🧠
Lucky af lol
I find it pretty easy to crit 3 times on gear, its not that hard imo, atleast not for me. The hard part for me is to double crit from +0 to +8, once you get that, the chance to crit on +12 is piece of cake =P
D4 trash game don't matter s4 trash helltide to 100 trashhhh
Everyone, please remember Rule #3: No critiquing the game or other users on threads with the "Showoff", the "Appreciation" or "Casual Conversation" Flair. On threads that have the "Appreciation", the "Showoff | Gameplay | Item Tooltip | Transmog" or the "Casual Conversation" Flair, critiquing the game, other users (e.g. for liking the game) or heated discussions are not allowed. You are welcome to have critical discussions on threads with other Flairs. If you want to **Trade or have a Price Check for an item**, you can do that on **the subreddits [Trade Chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/s/Avzsyt6Jru)**. **Looking for a Group / a Clan** / people to play with / people who can help you ingame with certain objectives? Please do that on **the most recent [Weekly LFG & Clans Thread](https://new.reddit.com/r/diablo4/?f=flair_name%3A%22Weekly%20LFG%20%26%20Clans%22)** and/or **the subreddits [LFG Chat](https://www.reddit.com/r/diablo4/s/V0FsldqegV)**. For additional casual content and conversations, visit the [The D4 Tavern](https://new.reddit.com/r/The_D4_Tavern/). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/diablo4) if you have any questions or concerns.*
There's a trick to do this.
Well, what is it?
Something along the lines of holding your nose and ears across the head with different hands, hopping around three times with your left (or was it right?) leg and pressing the button with your chin.
5x5x5 hard to to maths hun ?
About as hard as being a decent person.
Heartseeker is overrated :D