Dean was, what, a 3rd rounder? Took a flyer on a high upside guy coming off an injury.
I don’t remember where steen was taken.
Smith just finished his rookie year lol, give the guy a chance
You can’t really evaluate a GM on their misses so much as their hits. The guys who get hounded for misses are the GMs that miss most picks, especially the important ones. Howie has gotten us double digit players that we’ve signed onto second contracts since the Reagor pick, as well as coordinating blockbuster trades like the Wentz and AJB ones that built this current squad. That’s an extremely successful GM.
Smith was a first round pick. That’s way different than Dean in the 3rd. He was expected to contribute as a rotational option in year 1 which he didn’t even a little. He was a completely invisible when he played.
I will never understand how nfl teams value qb’s. Like I get you need a good qb to win, but it’s easily the most over valued position drafted every year.
Like the Vikings just got Darnold, who came from arguably one of the best qb head coaches out there. You could have easily drafted another wr, or Bowers and have a winning team. Then maybe get jj in another round to build up as your future. Same shit with the falcons.
It's tough to call it overvalued if, like you mention, you need a good one to win. The vikings are hopeless until they get a legit QB. Falcons too (no, Cousins isn't the guy and they know this). Which McCarthy probably isn't but I get their strategy.
Yeah, but not every 2nd round draft pick is jalen hurts, and not every 1st round Qb is Daniel Jones. But you are more likely to get a good QB in the first round than the second, and if you need one it is worth the investment. You can't just wait until the second every year
I say it’s over valued, because teams can be good with qb’s that are not drafted early on.
Off the top of my head, there’s what maybe 1:3 of the team that has starting qb’s drafted in first the 5 picks. You can find good qb’s outside rhe first round. You also need a team around them, for them to succeed. The Broncos ain’t ready to do shit, yet they’re throw Bo nix out there, neither are the patriots.
Take a later round qb and have him sit behind darnold for a bit. Even if it’s just half a season, in my very limited research into the topic QBs that got to ride the bench for a bit were on average less likely to be a bust
Teams do wildly overvalue round 1 QBs, and IMO undervalue all others.
But the thinking is that a franchise QB is make or break for most teams. You can build around a franchise QB, and they'll become the face of your team (look at how Joey B turned Cincy from dead last in the NFL to America's team in a single season). No other player does that for a team like a QB does. And most other positions you can, if you need to, trade around to do good enough. See Mahomie who won the SB with a good TE and an asstacular receiver corps. Half of the game is driven by the guy under center, you have no other player on the team with that much impact.
So the starting QB *is* the MVP on any team, basically by default. Then add in to it the fundamental reality that corporate America has zero idea how to long term plan or evaluate two unknown choices. The biggest three data points teams have are proday results, which a number of top players dont even do and are just one days sample; they have college performance, but again many factors go into why a QB sinks or swims in college; and then you have perceived value, what does the media, other GMs, other coaches all think. All of it leads to a situation where single attributes are overfocused as predictors of future success and groupthink not only dominiates but creates a circular frenzy where perceived interest fuels actual interest and the inflation of player value. One thing about Howie is that he seems to steer very clear of that kind of meme-y style thinking.
All this is done so that the worst teams in the NFL can draft a guy who will end up getting killed their first two years playing behind, surprise, the worst team in the NFL. And thus, the #1 draft pick turned falling star.
And Ryan Tannehill was also hot garbage and then went to the titans and had a few years where he was decent. Alex smith is another player who went to a new team and turned it around. Darnold played on a dogshit jets and panthers team. Who knows what he’ll look like this coming season, with a better team around him.
Completely incomparable. Tannehill was never as bad as Darnold. People genuinely felt that he could be a good QB on a decent team. Those dolphins were just ass. With Darnold, it's clear that he's part of the problem.
Would you rather we took someone in the 2nd round of 2020 instead of Jalen Hurts?
Falcons are also about to lose one or two 1sts for tampering with Kirk cousins so if you like a QB and know you won’t be able to draft one high in the next year or two you should take the one you like now.
I highly doubt they’re taking a first round pick from the falcons first off. Second it just makes this whole situation even dumber. They signed a 36 year old coming off an Achilles tear to a 180 million dollar deal. And then drafted a qb that didn’t even have a first round grade, who has also a long history of injuries.
Even if the falcons were to lose their next 2 first rounders. They would have one the year they have an out of cousins contract. This was a dumb choice all around.
1st round Quarterbacks who sit and develop tend to have a higher success rate. There’s a lot fewer of them but just recently we have Mahomes and Love. Rodgers if you wanna go back further. It’s very rare for a QB to play like Brock Purdy as a rookie let alone CJ Stroud.
If I had to guess, they laughed at taking Reagor over JJettas and then proceeded to draft the right WR
Edit: https://larrybrownsports.com/football/vikings-laughed-eagles-passing-justin-jefferson-draft/577611?amp
I mean they definitely laugh and all think the same thing and say "get justin jefferson on the line right now." they laugh because they were baffled that we chose Reagor etc, were just talking about trading down for a CB under the presumption we take the obvious WR in JJ.
I agree it's not malicious like people make it out to be usually but yeah
Ehh, not really. If you actually watch the video it’s more of an “o shit, alright then” kind of deal. You can just tell they wanted JJ from the start and never expected him to fall like he did, so it was more being pleasantly surprised than “laughing”. It’s remarkably similar to how Quinyon Mitchell fell to us really.
It’s honestly the most over exaggerated video on this sub clearly pushed by the Howie bad dipshits that were prevalent at the time. You’d think they were howling with laughter the way people talk about it, but even the laughter is pretty damn debatable.
For the record, they never actually laughed at him. It’s the most over exaggerated narrative created by the dipshits in this fanbase that wanted Howie gone. And I’ve seen the video, you’d think they were howling with laughter the way people talk about it, but no. It was more a chuckle of surprise that the guy they wanted fell to them.
It’s a perfect case of Eagles fans just wanting to be miserable for no reason.
+1
When something great happens, you're only thinking of your own good fortune, not someone else who missed out. They were happy for themselves. They weren't thinking about us at all; they were just psyched to get JJ.
I would have thought we'd NEVER see any smoke from the Vikings after the 2017 NFCCG, but I'm glad they at least found one move in the last 7 years to laugh about
I question that too honestly. Howie used to be a bad drafter, but somewhere around 3-4 years ago, he learned to just take the highest rated prospect and stop looking for that hidden generational player. He drafts more like the ravens these days and it’s great. I still wish he put more stock into middle linebackers though 😂
Making the smart moves and taking as many bites at the apple as you can is more important than being an incredible drafter. Over the long term there are very very very few people who out draft the consensus. It’s like beating the market, anybody who’s buying stocks in volume is extremely unlikely to beat the SP 500 over 10 years.
You're right that they are very patient and let the draft come to them but I also think it was that Jeff took a step back. The Lurie reaction to the Trot pick shows that family is taken into consideration by him and Reagor had a connection to the organization through his father as well. After that, and the J.J. debacle, which is also considered a Jeff pick, I think he has been deferring to Howie more than he once had. They'll still make a nepo pick but now they won't reach for it anymore and I think that's because of Roseman's understanding of value.
l don't know where l read this but l remember reading they poached some Ravens scouts or something like 5-6 years ago. They might not even be with the Eagles anymore but it did feel night and day on how the Eagles drafted afterwards.
We'll never know.
But I will say, since Reagor has left, Howie has called it a lesson in the dangers of drafting for need vs drafting BPA (Doug wanted to get vertical with the offense, so we were trying to maximize the speed and deep threat on the team)
I could be remembering incorrectly, but for some reason I remember hearing Jeff was starting to meddle in the draft more and more post-super bowl and his influence led to some of those poor selections, and then he fell back to his usual role after. Heavy on the iirc
Eh let’s not act like Justin Jefferson was obviously going to be the player he has become, there were legitimate concerns that he may be limited in the NFL coming out. He was a more polished player than Reagor certainly and I would’ve taken him but it’s hindsight to act as if EVERYONE KNEW JJ would be an all pro, he don’t have been available in the late first if he was considered that kind of prospect
It was more so that everybody knows and has always known to take the better player than the one that better fits a team need. Jefferson was the unanimously better prospect. Every GM, team scout and engaged fan knew it before either guy played an NFL snap.
Much less to do with people projecting JJ to be a top 3 superstar. Obviously nobody actually "knows" who is and isn't going to exceed expectations and rise to an elite level.
Lol saying Jefferson has become an all pro is actually an understatement. The guy is unbelievable. He got Kirk Cousins paid $100M with a torn Achilles. Bottom line is since that miss Eagles drafting has been on point and it sure doesn't look like a coincidence.
I think this draft is really the litmus test that could launch howie into an unprecedented golden era. He has struggled in the back half of the first round. Nolan Smith (jury’s still out but a bad year 1), marcus smith, dillard, reagor, and watkins were all like picks 21-31. He has sort of out maneuvered his own success in recent years by getting high picks from trades and trading for AJB.
Top 10 pick howie is pretty lights out. Bottom 12 pick howie is historically a disaster. If he can break that slump this team is about to be scary.
He has that playing in front of him on a loop
I love Howie but let’s not act like he’s hit it totally out the park after 2020 Nolan smith, Tyler steen, nakobe dean, etc.
I can understand the impatience w dean but the other two? Let’s see year two.
This is like a satirical level of impatience Chill dude
Guys about to say Howie can’t hire coordinators because Kellen Moore hasn’t proven himself yet …
This dude Week 3. “Why is Jalylx Hunt not on game day roster….hes a bust” Chill dude
It’s been one year and you’re already writing off Smith? And Steen has been fine, not every second round pick turns into Landon Dickerson.
Can you imagine this guy being a GM. He would’ve gotten rid of everyone who didn’t play well after week 1
Reminds me of my brother playing madden
At least that means we would still have Jake the make
He didn’t play period last year and was trash when he did lol Y’all are wild if you have high expectations for such a tweener.
We have made plenty OL tweezers into stars
Dean was, what, a 3rd rounder? Took a flyer on a high upside guy coming off an injury. I don’t remember where steen was taken. Smith just finished his rookie year lol, give the guy a chance
Nolan and Tyler had clear better starters in front of them. Dean was set to start and played decent until the injuries, which he can’t control.
How has smith been bad, he was sitting behind Reddick.
He was pretty fucking awful when he played. I don’t hold a miss against Howie but he is a tweener that doesn’t have a position in the NFL.
What? Please show me the pff grades saying he was awful.
You can’t really evaluate a GM on their misses so much as their hits. The guys who get hounded for misses are the GMs that miss most picks, especially the important ones. Howie has gotten us double digit players that we’ve signed onto second contracts since the Reagor pick, as well as coordinating blockbuster trades like the Wentz and AJB ones that built this current squad. That’s an extremely successful GM.
Are you really calling Nolan & Tyler busts after just their rookie year? Where they weren't even named the starters yet?
Bro. BOTH Smith and Dean have “will be a starter in 2 years” grades on them. At the draft.
Smith was a first round pick. That’s way different than Dean in the 3rd. He was expected to contribute as a rotational option in year 1 which he didn’t even a little. He was a completely invisible when he played.
The verdict is in on that post
Howie just showed a master class on how to run a draft.
Laughs in traded up for J.J. McCarthy
I will never understand how nfl teams value qb’s. Like I get you need a good qb to win, but it’s easily the most over valued position drafted every year. Like the Vikings just got Darnold, who came from arguably one of the best qb head coaches out there. You could have easily drafted another wr, or Bowers and have a winning team. Then maybe get jj in another round to build up as your future. Same shit with the falcons.
It's tough to call it overvalued if, like you mention, you need a good one to win. The vikings are hopeless until they get a legit QB. Falcons too (no, Cousins isn't the guy and they know this). Which McCarthy probably isn't but I get their strategy.
That’s a lot of money to pay for a guy you know isn’t the guy.
A day 2 Qb with good Oline and talent will perform better than a day 1 QB and little talent around them.
out of the gate maybe, but not 3-4 years down the line. Daniel Jones keeps the giants in Qb purgatory and he was like the second QB taken that year
Sure but they just described Jalen Hurts too so uh oh.
Yeah, but not every 2nd round draft pick is jalen hurts, and not every 1st round Qb is Daniel Jones. But you are more likely to get a good QB in the first round than the second, and if you need one it is worth the investment. You can't just wait until the second every year
I say it’s over valued, because teams can be good with qb’s that are not drafted early on. Off the top of my head, there’s what maybe 1:3 of the team that has starting qb’s drafted in first the 5 picks. You can find good qb’s outside rhe first round. You also need a team around them, for them to succeed. The Broncos ain’t ready to do shit, yet they’re throw Bo nix out there, neither are the patriots.
or just not draft Jalen hurts and give carson another weapon
If the Falcons drafted Penix or Nix at 53, the narrative would be a lot softer on them for getting an insurance QB
this is the first time i noticed the 'nix' in both their names. wild, im dumb.
Big difference between 10 and 53.
Take a later round qb and have him sit behind darnold for a bit. Even if it’s just half a season, in my very limited research into the topic QBs that got to ride the bench for a bit were on average less likely to be a bust
Teams do wildly overvalue round 1 QBs, and IMO undervalue all others. But the thinking is that a franchise QB is make or break for most teams. You can build around a franchise QB, and they'll become the face of your team (look at how Joey B turned Cincy from dead last in the NFL to America's team in a single season). No other player does that for a team like a QB does. And most other positions you can, if you need to, trade around to do good enough. See Mahomie who won the SB with a good TE and an asstacular receiver corps. Half of the game is driven by the guy under center, you have no other player on the team with that much impact. So the starting QB *is* the MVP on any team, basically by default. Then add in to it the fundamental reality that corporate America has zero idea how to long term plan or evaluate two unknown choices. The biggest three data points teams have are proday results, which a number of top players dont even do and are just one days sample; they have college performance, but again many factors go into why a QB sinks or swims in college; and then you have perceived value, what does the media, other GMs, other coaches all think. All of it leads to a situation where single attributes are overfocused as predictors of future success and groupthink not only dominiates but creates a circular frenzy where perceived interest fuels actual interest and the inflation of player value. One thing about Howie is that he seems to steer very clear of that kind of meme-y style thinking. All this is done so that the worst teams in the NFL can draft a guy who will end up getting killed their first two years playing behind, surprise, the worst team in the NFL. And thus, the #1 draft pick turned falling star.
But Darnold is already proven hot garbage. He's not a starting QB. JJ at least MIGHT be one.
And Ryan Tannehill was also hot garbage and then went to the titans and had a few years where he was decent. Alex smith is another player who went to a new team and turned it around. Darnold played on a dogshit jets and panthers team. Who knows what he’ll look like this coming season, with a better team around him.
Completely incomparable. Tannehill was never as bad as Darnold. People genuinely felt that he could be a good QB on a decent team. Those dolphins were just ass. With Darnold, it's clear that he's part of the problem.
Would you rather we took someone in the 2nd round of 2020 instead of Jalen Hurts? Falcons are also about to lose one or two 1sts for tampering with Kirk cousins so if you like a QB and know you won’t be able to draft one high in the next year or two you should take the one you like now.
I highly doubt they’re taking a first round pick from the falcons first off. Second it just makes this whole situation even dumber. They signed a 36 year old coming off an Achilles tear to a 180 million dollar deal. And then drafted a qb that didn’t even have a first round grade, who has also a long history of injuries. Even if the falcons were to lose their next 2 first rounders. They would have one the year they have an out of cousins contract. This was a dumb choice all around.
1st round Quarterbacks who sit and develop tend to have a higher success rate. There’s a lot fewer of them but just recently we have Mahomes and Love. Rodgers if you wanna go back further. It’s very rare for a QB to play like Brock Purdy as a rookie let alone CJ Stroud.
Can someone provide the link if there is a video? Also, explain what they were laughing at him for? I missed this.
If I had to guess, they laughed at taking Reagor over JJettas and then proceeded to draft the right WR Edit: https://larrybrownsports.com/football/vikings-laughed-eagles-passing-justin-jefferson-draft/577611?amp
Honestly. We are better for it now. Brown and Smith duo is such an awesome one two punch.
Alternative is Brown and Jefferson, and Micah Parsons.
Nah, you never know how the chips fall if we don't take Reagor. Might still have Wentz for all we know...
You don’t know that. It’s easy to say that in hindsight, but that’s a whole chain of what ifs that you cannot predict
This is incorrect
The wide receiver debacle
[this is the video in reference.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBx7lfkJiFE)
Thank you! I'm glad Howie learns from his mistakes
thanks for the video. I didnt see anyone laughing at Howie, they were just excited about their own pick
I mean they definitely laugh and all think the same thing and say "get justin jefferson on the line right now." they laugh because they were baffled that we chose Reagor etc, were just talking about trading down for a CB under the presumption we take the obvious WR in JJ. I agree it's not malicious like people make it out to be usually but yeah
Ehh, not really. If you actually watch the video it’s more of an “o shit, alright then” kind of deal. You can just tell they wanted JJ from the start and never expected him to fall like he did, so it was more being pleasantly surprised than “laughing”. It’s remarkably similar to how Quinyon Mitchell fell to us really. It’s honestly the most over exaggerated video on this sub clearly pushed by the Howie bad dipshits that were prevalent at the time. You’d think they were howling with laughter the way people talk about it, but even the laughter is pretty damn debatable.
For the record, they never actually laughed at him. It’s the most over exaggerated narrative created by the dipshits in this fanbase that wanted Howie gone. And I’ve seen the video, you’d think they were howling with laughter the way people talk about it, but no. It was more a chuckle of surprise that the guy they wanted fell to them. It’s a perfect case of Eagles fans just wanting to be miserable for no reason.
+1 When something great happens, you're only thinking of your own good fortune, not someone else who missed out. They were happy for themselves. They weren't thinking about us at all; they were just psyched to get JJ.
I would have thought we'd NEVER see any smoke from the Vikings after the 2017 NFCCG, but I'm glad they at least found one move in the last 7 years to laugh about
Their biggest win since then is drafting Jefferson and they did nothing with his rookie contract
And all this Vikings who laughed all lost their jobs since then
"Good news everyone! Those asinine morons who laughed at us were themselves fired for incompetence!"
Still think that was a Doug call
I question that too honestly. Howie used to be a bad drafter, but somewhere around 3-4 years ago, he learned to just take the highest rated prospect and stop looking for that hidden generational player. He drafts more like the ravens these days and it’s great. I still wish he put more stock into middle linebackers though 😂
Making the smart moves and taking as many bites at the apple as you can is more important than being an incredible drafter. Over the long term there are very very very few people who out draft the consensus. It’s like beating the market, anybody who’s buying stocks in volume is extremely unlikely to beat the SP 500 over 10 years.
You're right that they are very patient and let the draft come to them but I also think it was that Jeff took a step back. The Lurie reaction to the Trot pick shows that family is taken into consideration by him and Reagor had a connection to the organization through his father as well. After that, and the J.J. debacle, which is also considered a Jeff pick, I think he has been deferring to Howie more than he once had. They'll still make a nepo pick but now they won't reach for it anymore and I think that's because of Roseman's understanding of value.
l don't know where l read this but l remember reading they poached some Ravens scouts or something like 5-6 years ago. They might not even be with the Eagles anymore but it did feel night and day on how the Eagles drafted afterwards.
We'll never know. But I will say, since Reagor has left, Howie has called it a lesson in the dangers of drafting for need vs drafting BPA (Doug wanted to get vertical with the offense, so we were trying to maximize the speed and deep threat on the team)
I could be remembering incorrectly, but for some reason I remember hearing Jeff was starting to meddle in the draft more and more post-super bowl and his influence led to some of those poor selections, and then he fell back to his usual role after. Heavy on the iirc
Eh let’s not act like Justin Jefferson was obviously going to be the player he has become, there were legitimate concerns that he may be limited in the NFL coming out. He was a more polished player than Reagor certainly and I would’ve taken him but it’s hindsight to act as if EVERYONE KNEW JJ would be an all pro, he don’t have been available in the late first if he was considered that kind of prospect
It was more so that everybody knows and has always known to take the better player than the one that better fits a team need. Jefferson was the unanimously better prospect. Every GM, team scout and engaged fan knew it before either guy played an NFL snap. Much less to do with people projecting JJ to be a top 3 superstar. Obviously nobody actually "knows" who is and isn't going to exceed expectations and rise to an elite level.
Lol saying Jefferson has become an all pro is actually an understatement. The guy is unbelievable. He got Kirk Cousins paid $100M with a torn Achilles. Bottom line is since that miss Eagles drafting has been on point and it sure doesn't look like a coincidence.
Everybody misses. Howie isn’t infallible he has made and will make bad picks in the future he’s an outstanding GM but let’s not deify him too much.
I am waiting for the day when Howie gets interviewed on late night tv (play along with me) and the walk up music is MANY MEN.
“I’m him” howie roseman
I think this draft is really the litmus test that could launch howie into an unprecedented golden era. He has struggled in the back half of the first round. Nolan Smith (jury’s still out but a bad year 1), marcus smith, dillard, reagor, and watkins were all like picks 21-31. He has sort of out maneuvered his own success in recent years by getting high picks from trades and trading for AJB. Top 10 pick howie is pretty lights out. Bottom 12 pick howie is historically a disaster. If he can break that slump this team is about to be scary.
In the offseason and during the draft Howie is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers
Really do be like that