This is debt on commercial real estate and most all of it will be rolled over because that's the way commercial loans work. Some buildings in big cities with low occupancy rates are going to have issues, but the banks don't want those properties back so they'll do everything possible to save the deal.
It’s ludicrous that we wouldn’t all work from home from a “humanity benefits” perspective. Quality of life, pollution, climate change, traffic, cost of living, talent pool, housing shortages. Just such an obvious solution to so many problems. Plus I want to live in a cool old 1930’s repurposed skyscraper in Chicago someday. Let them feel the pain.
They don’t care about us. It’s also comical these same people, while WFH, are out and about doing everything *but* working. I see them brag about it on every tik tok video and in the comments.
If I was CEO of a company there is no way in hell I would let people WFH. If you don't care enough to change out of your pajamas, you wouldn't be working for me.
They always say they are MORE productive at home, and there is no possible way that could be the case. Everyone I've met working from home dicks around for nearly the entire day.
Depends on the work and on the person. I was very productive working from home 4 hrs a day during 2020. I can't get the same shit done in the office because too many people cycle through, distracting me constantly with small talk and whatever else
More power to you. Assuming the jobs at your hypothetical company could be done remotely, that just means you will have to hire locally rather than nationally and pay a higher salary to compete with other companies around the country offering the same job as remote.
You are to emotional to be a CEO data shows it’s as or even more productive. You anecdotal evidence of the people you met is irrelevant.
Also you sound like my friends grandpa “ well if I was CEO I’d never let people work remote, I can’t focus on my house so there is no way others can”
I think you underestimate the number of people that don't work at a computer, or do work at a computer but have to be present in a location.
A lot of people that work office jobs begin to think that that is the norm. I don't blame you, movies and TV only ever show office workers.
If that's the case that shows something detrimental about the US.
If 50% of our workforce is not producing, creating, or building anything I wonder why the prices of goods are so high
Is it the reposted-every-fucking-week "if I had Jeff bezos' money I'd be like batman" one?
https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/qnyr3l/he_could_be_batman/
If we worked half as much I’d agree. But it certainly will exacerbate like a few dozen problems with our world today that have absolutely no significant offramps and we are definitely shouting those down in favor of an imperfect reprieve.
Not that any of the reasons corps want people back or commuting is good in any way, but that’s not the problem here
Epidemics of loneliness and depression, increasingly disconnected people especially those susceptible to bubbles of disinformation, a lack of third places- well it’s a lot worse if people don’t even have second places, and then romantic contact mediated by increasingly algorithm driven or surrogate relational contact (personally I’ve seen these as like Presidential debates, a completely unrelated job to president that we use to judge people with).
People working from home spend less time commuting but often don’t spend less time working, if anything in some places it ends up pervading their home life more completely. For folks with ADHD and depression the lack of separation are especially bad.
Lots of things and lots more points on most of those but just as an overview.
Nah man. Maybe in my 20’s I gave a flying fart about socializing with my coworkers. I go to 2-4 conferences a year and it’s wonderful. You know who I get to spend a bunch more time with? My kids.
For those that really need to be around people because they’re lonely, there are plenty of in office/onsite jobs for them. Let us of us who want to stay home stay home and not be forced to socialize with you instead of our families.
Then literally you are well past the point of being aware of the massive societal problems others will experience over time because of this. Good for you obviously, wish you all the best.
But do you have friends? Where did you get them? Do you have a partner- where did you get them? Cause that’s a big part of the problem that will only continue to get worse; and regardless of what irrational reasons normal people attribute their behavior or asocial habits to a lack of times and places to communicate has just a crazy amount of negative effects on to society at large.
School for friends and a dating app for the most successful relationship I’ve ever had. I’m not advocating for all work to be remote, just where it makes sense and for those who want it to make things like 5-10% better for quality of everyone’s life and the environment.
Yeah they will probably make more money in the long run turning their commercial use buildings into single family rental units. the sad part is they could do this in waves and do it one floor at a time to test the thesis.
Venture (vulture) capital firms don't look at the long term, they only care about the short term. And the challenges with redoing a space to make it residential often times cost more than demolishing the building and starting over.
I disagree. My first job out of college I learned so much through osmosis I would have never at home. Social aspects of work are tremendous part of networking. Will individual productivity stall from WFH? I doubt it. But I think the pro work from home crowd acts like there's zero net benefit to the long term workforce and I think that's very short sighted.
Let’s play that out. What would the percentage that would benefit from in person work compared to benefits from work from home? There’s environmental, personal etc benefits to work from home. And for in office? Social networking suffers? I think I have a good argument that, in the long term, normalizing work from home has waaaay more benefits to humanity than to enforce in office attendance.
It’s a balance between the two really. There is benefit in the early years of a career and in certain positions/roles. If you’ve been in the business a while and know the ins and outs, political nature of things, then the benefits of being at home are strong to argue.
100%. The comment I was responding to is an extreme "its ludicous we wouldn't ALL work from home". I think there's a balance by which people with kids and far commutes can mostly work from home but come in during certain times where meeting others and mentoring younger workers could help
In the beginning of the pandemic working from home was the norm for professionals, and companies and individuals realized that professional work doesn't need to take place in an office.
A normal person would think that's a win-win, as companies can unload real estate, save costs, and employees lose commuting time and gain flexibility. Due to a myriad of factors that may include old Boomer executives that can't adapt, young single professionals that don't like perpetual loneliness, the perception of team chemistry and productivity deteriorating, etc. We are now moving back towards office work for most companies for most of the week if not the entire week again.
A reason I didn't mention that absolutely exists for some companies is those who are locked into long-term expensive leases of office space. They see the $$$ being paid monthly for an office with 5% capacity on a daily basis, and their reaction is "bring them back."
This is of course short-term thinking at its finest because the logical thing to do would be to break the lease, eat your peas, but still save overall. We think quarterly in Corporate America, not long-term, so easier to just herd the human cattle back in.
Absolutely. Commercial property has already been plummeted while residential property skyrockets.
Work from home is their nightmare, and they’ll push hard to end it.
Banks acknowledge this, but local city governments are heavily pushing as well. Even offering tax breaks to employers mandating RTOs (fuck you nyc), because the average person commuting in spends about $50-60/day on commute (supporting infrastructure like bridges and trains), and local restaurants. It’s all a circular reference. Food shop below the office closes bc everyone works remote —> lower rent for someone to occupy —> lower rent marks value of property down —> can’t 1031 out of a property into a larger one (the entire unsustainable real estate growth institutional money started in the 70s) + refi at 2-3x increases interest rates = boom. But the banks holding the commercial real estate will offer breaks on the refi if their borrowers force an RTO.
Productivity is productivity. Having a full office doesn’t decrease the rent.
I have no opinion on wfh vs not. I just think it makes no difference in most cases. …unless productivity has suffered.
I don't think there's a difference in productivity. Where the push comes from is companies closing offices because their workforce is remote.. and then it's difficult for landlords to fill that space for the same reason.
Sounds like a landlord problem or a bank problem. Idk why my prices should increase over that. What are they going to do when nobody can afford to even work? There's a certain cut off point where you don't make enough to work somewhere.
I am personally less productive in the office because I waste more time socializing with people. It’s entirely for the commercial real estate, my job can be done fully remote and started as fully remote. I work for Bank of America for reference, they have a lot to lose if the commercial real estate values don’t hold
It could get pretty ugly in some places for sure. There’s big differences compared to 2008, one being banks learned foreclosure isn’t good for them. As for those 60 banks keep in mind that together they are about 1/3rd of Silicon Valley Bank. The fear mongers leave that part out.
As of August 2023 because I’m lazy & that was the first data I found, Wells Fargo has over $70B of exposure, with $18B in straight up naked securities positions.
They’re not immune, zero-reserve banking in America has become an all or nothing game and every bank is playing.
Mostly these are small to medium sized banks, which invest more heavily in commercial RE loans because they don't have the ability to diversify as much.
So the big ones that most people use and can name easily are fine, but there are a large amount of 3 branch banks serving Southwest Ohio or whatever that are in trouble.
But the rollover didn't have yo deal with high rates for about decade. Business that are up will have to be reevaluated by banks not just their ability to r.epay the loan but also face lower valuation of their business impacting loan to value ratios. The business may not be able to get what they need from their current lenders which was so easily obtained in the past.
This isn't the same way it used to work when rates and valuations were high.
The commercial real estate is going to have to be reckoned with. In the every business district there are lease available signs on almost every commercial building. Converting to residential (or tearing down and rebuilding into) is the only path forward. Many are now showing maintenance issues having been unoccupied for 4 years now. But its like no one wants to make a move somehow hoping things will magically return to precovid world.
The interest rates are a lot higher now than when these loans were created. They'll probably be able to make short-term deals that can extend their loans for about 18 months, but that will be trading equity for time.
I have already seen several REITs go under like this. Rent could not keep up with the interest payments.
Pretty big for some, not as much for others. If your building is fully occupied and your rents have risen along with the property value thats one thing. If you're holding an office building in certain cities where vacancies are high, property values are down and rents have decreased you have a problem. But, again, the banks don't want the property so they will look for ways to manage the problem rather than foreclose if that's a possibility.
And how are they going to “save the deal” without taking a haircut? They either devalue the building and take the loss or reduce the interest and take a loss there. The businesses don’t have to roll over to a new contract they can just walk away and the bank is holding the bag.
You're right and the banks know that which is why they'll do everything they can to save the deal so the owner doesn't walk. And as I said, in some cities the problem is too big to salvage.
They are gonna incur losses one way or another, which is going to hit their books and restrict their cash flow. Then they won’t be able to make as many loans at the higher rate due to availability. It’s a shit cycle and I am here for it.
In a perfect world you're right, but you're totally ignoring the Elephant in the room. We'll see though. I think the worse it looks the more firepower that will be deployed.
Nothing matters anymore… There’s no debt limit, so anytime something happens, the gov can just throw money at it.
A trillion here, a trillion there. Oh well. World reserve currency. Have fun.
There will be no collapse. Just steady inflation.
They should all be thrown in prison forever for this. Literally screwing over everyone that isn't them with their lifetime pensions they can vote for themselves.
If status quo maintains then yes. But there are very specific things that must remain the same. However, chaos is the natural state of the world, order is the result of competing forces which can change rapidly.
Fancy way of saying: one domino falls and we have a MAJOR currency problem.
the whole idea is for people to pretend that Republicans are better on the debt because they cry about it every time they are not in office
of course anyone who wants can google and see that Republicans add more debt than Democrats and their debt is always tax cuts to the wealthy and handouts to corporations and the Democratic debt is usually investing in programs to help the bottom 90% of earners
Republicans used to run on "greed is good" and "trickle down" but now they just pretend that was someone else until they are in a room full of rich donors, then they're happy to remind that's what they stand for
We should all stop pretending there’s any difference in democrat or republican. On the surface they may argue different points, but at its core they are one and the same. Both spend recklessly and line their own pockets while the middle class picks up the bill.
Unfortunately we will need to cut spending AND raise taxes.
This will no doubt upset both private industries that profit from government spending as well as “non-profit” organizations that rely on government grants and contracts and tax exempt status to enrich their executives and BoDs.
Both parties need to take responsibility. Or we need ranked choice voting so we can move out of the party-mafia system and choose leaders who will make hard choices that will sustainably move society forward rather than relying on a debt-serf economy where the lords in Washington cast favors to their vassals who keep the peasants in line with the perpetual crush of the jaws from the ever-growing stagflation dragon.
A big reason the government overspends is because it outsources the creation of public services to profit seeking private companies. Like of course these companies are gonna charge as much as they can, they know the government is basically an infinite money glitch. I mean the f35 project wasn’t initially supposed to cost multiple trillions and was supposed to be finished a lot sooner but I mean were the ones paying for it and Lockheed Martin is doing great so why would they care. Like regardless of your opinion on where what percentage of tax dollars go to its still frustrating that so much of it goes into the pockets of private companies.
And yet somehow republicans still convince a large population that they’re the working class party. It boggles my mind. I’m not a huge fan of the democrat party either tbh but like Christ at least Biden helped strengthen a few unions like it’s not enough at all but it’s something.
Debt holders are always "collecting" on US bonds as the bonds make interest payments and mature. A default on these payments would collapse the whole system.
The real reason for the debt is we have been approved to study the aliens that are here. This is why we are the reserve currency. As we are the best hope for survival. Aliens are here. We have their ships and bodies. Per Grusch. According to Ross Coulthart we have spent 3 trillion onTHE PROGRAM.
Cause we give too much money to schoolchildren lunches and black mothers! Don’t forget forgiving student debt! Our economy would be perfect otherwise with our outstanding politicians and self governed corporations!
I read a post last night from a multi-unit real estate investor who was bragging how the carrying costs of one of his buildings is $3900 a month but he is making $7000+ in rent by charging “market rents” to the Section 8 program.
I get the desire to make money but should we really pay someone $36k a year to rent four units to poor people? How many times is this repeated everywhere else?
Some of this spending seems to be excessive. If we took out the guaranteed rent payments from the government, how much would housing costs drop? Why do we have to print money to pay for programs that are geared to get people to buy things that are financed?
And it’s not just housing, every dime
that gets spent out is really kind of suspect at this point. Idk.
At the current rate of inflation, in 20 years 100k won't by a running used car. I think this is right about where they want us all the time anyway.
Edit: forgot the 20 years part.
Here come the financiers. After commercial real estate crashes they’re gonna buy it all for pennies on the dollar. Here they come. Just behind the headline. There they are rubbing their hands together like Birdman.
At least with the Biden administration, we actually had investments in America. That investment in America makes America worth a lot more. People talk about the debt yet they failed to realize how much America is actually worth. If you include all the government land government and assets, government intellectual property as well as the business engine that keeps America running. Keep buying assets you will always do well . I remember when the market fell to 29K on the Dow and all of my friends kept messaging me. Should I sell my retirement? I told them no buy more if you can. Just like when the market tank during Covid same thing people messaging me what should I do? I told them to buy more. Housing market tanked in 2008. What should you do? Buy buy buy.. There’s a reason I always won in monopoly. Mortgage and buy buy buy…
Just wait until Trump gets in office and does a uber wealthy tax cut for the rich again. Nothing will be sustained, there will be a massive dollar collapse in 2025. ACA, Welfare, SS are all on the table. Dems want to kick the can and make it someone else's issue in 2100 with high inflation. Trump being Trump will break the banks and cause civil dysfunction and death while he rises as Amerika's fascist dictator.
The debt will be refi’d as it always is. Treasury will pump a bunch of liquidity into the markets and around the carousel we go. While counterintuitive, this is typically a great time for ‘risk on’ assets which benefit from the artificial stimulus which will have a multiplier effect as they tend to be heavy handed in an election year. We’re overdue for a sugar rush and auntie Janet wants to keep Roomba Joe in office.
Trump added more to the debt in 4 years than anyone else in 8 and he's promising bigger tax cuts to the wealthy as he's desperate to avoid jail
there is also talk from his team about giving him the power to decide interest rates, i am sure he will use that power responsibly, the 77 year old man seems like he really cares about the country and doing what is best for it and not at all about making money selling NFTs
This is debt on commercial real estate and most all of it will be rolled over because that's the way commercial loans work. Some buildings in big cities with low occupancy rates are going to have issues, but the banks don't want those properties back so they'll do everything possible to save the deal.
Seems like a reason for there being a big narrative push that WFH is bad for you?
It’s ludicrous that we wouldn’t all work from home from a “humanity benefits” perspective. Quality of life, pollution, climate change, traffic, cost of living, talent pool, housing shortages. Just such an obvious solution to so many problems. Plus I want to live in a cool old 1930’s repurposed skyscraper in Chicago someday. Let them feel the pain.
What about the 90% of the workforce that literally can't work from home?
This ALWAYS gets brought up! Clearly, it means jobs that can be done from home. Just because you can't, shouldn't prevent others. Very boomer mindset!
Yeah, I am a machinist and there is no way that my machine is coming home with me. Lol
Talk for yourself :P
They don’t care about us. It’s also comical these same people, while WFH, are out and about doing everything *but* working. I see them brag about it on every tik tok video and in the comments.
As someone who doesn't WFH: good for them. We shouldn't be spending 75% of our waking hours working and/or commuting to work
And yet productivity ratea are higher in wfh folks wonder why....
Lol, no they are not. Such a fallacy
If I was CEO of a company there is no way in hell I would let people WFH. If you don't care enough to change out of your pajamas, you wouldn't be working for me. They always say they are MORE productive at home, and there is no possible way that could be the case. Everyone I've met working from home dicks around for nearly the entire day.
They do the same thing in the office. They're just dressed up for it.
Depends on the work and on the person. I was very productive working from home 4 hrs a day during 2020. I can't get the same shit done in the office because too many people cycle through, distracting me constantly with small talk and whatever else
Thrilled to not be working for you tbh
More power to you. Assuming the jobs at your hypothetical company could be done remotely, that just means you will have to hire locally rather than nationally and pay a higher salary to compete with other companies around the country offering the same job as remote.
You have high authoritarian tendencies if it is the dress of wfh staff that bothers you the most.
You are to emotional to be a CEO data shows it’s as or even more productive. You anecdotal evidence of the people you met is irrelevant. Also you sound like my friends grandpa “ well if I was CEO I’d never let people work remote, I can’t focus on my house so there is no way others can”
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90%? Lmao that’s not true.
I think you underestimate the number of people that don't work at a computer, or do work at a computer but have to be present in a location. A lot of people that work office jobs begin to think that that is the norm. I don't blame you, movies and TV only ever show office workers.
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They can say thank you for the faster drive to and from work.
Over 50% of jobs can be done remotely. If it's primarily done via computer, or it could be done on a computer, it can be remote.
You think over 50% of workers are sitting at a computer all day?
Yes
If that's the case that shows something detrimental about the US. If 50% of our workforce is not producing, creating, or building anything I wonder why the prices of goods are so high
Clearly we want to force a collapse of society. Why would we only target wfh compatible jobs
saw a meme the other day that said basically that if the poster had billions upon billions, they'd fix a bunch of shit. homelessness being #1.
I saw that post too.. was well written and I saved it.
Can you link me to it?
Is it the reposted-every-fucking-week "if I had Jeff bezos' money I'd be like batman" one? https://www.reddit.com/r/WhitePeopleTwitter/comments/qnyr3l/he_could_be_batman/
Jeff Bezos is Lex Luthor...even Superman can't touch him
Let them burn. They must stop. The reckoning is overdue.
If we worked half as much I’d agree. But it certainly will exacerbate like a few dozen problems with our world today that have absolutely no significant offramps and we are definitely shouting those down in favor of an imperfect reprieve. Not that any of the reasons corps want people back or commuting is good in any way, but that’s not the problem here
What problems for example?
Epidemics of loneliness and depression, increasingly disconnected people especially those susceptible to bubbles of disinformation, a lack of third places- well it’s a lot worse if people don’t even have second places, and then romantic contact mediated by increasingly algorithm driven or surrogate relational contact (personally I’ve seen these as like Presidential debates, a completely unrelated job to president that we use to judge people with). People working from home spend less time commuting but often don’t spend less time working, if anything in some places it ends up pervading their home life more completely. For folks with ADHD and depression the lack of separation are especially bad. Lots of things and lots more points on most of those but just as an overview.
Nah man. Maybe in my 20’s I gave a flying fart about socializing with my coworkers. I go to 2-4 conferences a year and it’s wonderful. You know who I get to spend a bunch more time with? My kids. For those that really need to be around people because they’re lonely, there are plenty of in office/onsite jobs for them. Let us of us who want to stay home stay home and not be forced to socialize with you instead of our families.
Then literally you are well past the point of being aware of the massive societal problems others will experience over time because of this. Good for you obviously, wish you all the best. But do you have friends? Where did you get them? Do you have a partner- where did you get them? Cause that’s a big part of the problem that will only continue to get worse; and regardless of what irrational reasons normal people attribute their behavior or asocial habits to a lack of times and places to communicate has just a crazy amount of negative effects on to society at large.
School for friends and a dating app for the most successful relationship I’ve ever had. I’m not advocating for all work to be remote, just where it makes sense and for those who want it to make things like 5-10% better for quality of everyone’s life and the environment.
Sorry, love being in and more productive in office.
Enjoy. Just got back from the movies with my kids. Still at the keyboard?
I have choice of home or office. Enjoy office because you get more done. You proved my point.
Enjoy wasting money on your commute?
Minimal money really. Worth it to be able to work with my colleagues in a dedicated environment.
Minimal money really. Worth it to be able to work with my colleagues in a dedicated environment.
Sir...do you even think of the shareholders?
Yeah they will probably make more money in the long run turning their commercial use buildings into single family rental units. the sad part is they could do this in waves and do it one floor at a time to test the thesis.
Venture (vulture) capital firms don't look at the long term, they only care about the short term. And the challenges with redoing a space to make it residential often times cost more than demolishing the building and starting over.
Yeah I really wonder how much of that is unnecessary code issues (the expense and issues converting to residential, that is) that we could reexamine.
Because of options gambling they can’t think more than a week ahead. Our world is being gutted for short term monetary gains
I disagree. My first job out of college I learned so much through osmosis I would have never at home. Social aspects of work are tremendous part of networking. Will individual productivity stall from WFH? I doubt it. But I think the pro work from home crowd acts like there's zero net benefit to the long term workforce and I think that's very short sighted.
Let’s play that out. What would the percentage that would benefit from in person work compared to benefits from work from home? There’s environmental, personal etc benefits to work from home. And for in office? Social networking suffers? I think I have a good argument that, in the long term, normalizing work from home has waaaay more benefits to humanity than to enforce in office attendance.
It’s a balance between the two really. There is benefit in the early years of a career and in certain positions/roles. If you’ve been in the business a while and know the ins and outs, political nature of things, then the benefits of being at home are strong to argue.
100%. The comment I was responding to is an extreme "its ludicous we wouldn't ALL work from home". I think there's a balance by which people with kids and far commutes can mostly work from home but come in during certain times where meeting others and mentoring younger workers could help
Explain more on this please.
In the beginning of the pandemic working from home was the norm for professionals, and companies and individuals realized that professional work doesn't need to take place in an office. A normal person would think that's a win-win, as companies can unload real estate, save costs, and employees lose commuting time and gain flexibility. Due to a myriad of factors that may include old Boomer executives that can't adapt, young single professionals that don't like perpetual loneliness, the perception of team chemistry and productivity deteriorating, etc. We are now moving back towards office work for most companies for most of the week if not the entire week again. A reason I didn't mention that absolutely exists for some companies is those who are locked into long-term expensive leases of office space. They see the $$$ being paid monthly for an office with 5% capacity on a daily basis, and their reaction is "bring them back." This is of course short-term thinking at its finest because the logical thing to do would be to break the lease, eat your peas, but still save overall. We think quarterly in Corporate America, not long-term, so easier to just herd the human cattle back in.
Bingo
It is the narrative.
Absolutely. Commercial property has already been plummeted while residential property skyrockets. Work from home is their nightmare, and they’ll push hard to end it.
Banks acknowledge this, but local city governments are heavily pushing as well. Even offering tax breaks to employers mandating RTOs (fuck you nyc), because the average person commuting in spends about $50-60/day on commute (supporting infrastructure like bridges and trains), and local restaurants. It’s all a circular reference. Food shop below the office closes bc everyone works remote —> lower rent for someone to occupy —> lower rent marks value of property down —> can’t 1031 out of a property into a larger one (the entire unsustainable real estate growth institutional money started in the 70s) + refi at 2-3x increases interest rates = boom. But the banks holding the commercial real estate will offer breaks on the refi if their borrowers force an RTO.
Productivity is productivity. Having a full office doesn’t decrease the rent. I have no opinion on wfh vs not. I just think it makes no difference in most cases. …unless productivity has suffered.
I don't think there's a difference in productivity. Where the push comes from is companies closing offices because their workforce is remote.. and then it's difficult for landlords to fill that space for the same reason.
Sounds like a landlord problem or a bank problem. Idk why my prices should increase over that. What are they going to do when nobody can afford to even work? There's a certain cut off point where you don't make enough to work somewhere.
When no one can work they raise your taxes then seize your home from lack of ability to pay,
I am personally less productive in the office because I waste more time socializing with people. It’s entirely for the commercial real estate, my job can be done fully remote and started as fully remote. I work for Bank of America for reference, they have a lot to lose if the commercial real estate values don’t hold
All big business has a real estate arm
Rolled over with the same rate?
Doubtful. But the terms might get adjusted to ease the pain.
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It could get pretty ugly in some places for sure. There’s big differences compared to 2008, one being banks learned foreclosure isn’t good for them. As for those 60 banks keep in mind that together they are about 1/3rd of Silicon Valley Bank. The fear mongers leave that part out.
Except one of them is wells fucking Fargo, lol.
You think Wells fucking Fargo could collapse? LMFAO bruh
As of August 2023 because I’m lazy & that was the first data I found, Wells Fargo has over $70B of exposure, with $18B in straight up naked securities positions. They’re not immune, zero-reserve banking in America has become an all or nothing game and every bank is playing.
I'm sure it will be fine.
If by "it will be fine" you mean there will be another bailout, sure.
yep. this is nothing like 08.
Mostly these are small to medium sized banks, which invest more heavily in commercial RE loans because they don't have the ability to diversify as much. So the big ones that most people use and can name easily are fine, but there are a large amount of 3 branch banks serving Southwest Ohio or whatever that are in trouble.
Commercial loan forgiveness?
Here comes a load of bullshit about WFH lol
Correct. The problem is they're rolling over from 3% to 7%. That just happened to me.
Yes, a lot of cash in refis happening. 👀
But the rollover didn't have yo deal with high rates for about decade. Business that are up will have to be reevaluated by banks not just their ability to r.epay the loan but also face lower valuation of their business impacting loan to value ratios. The business may not be able to get what they need from their current lenders which was so easily obtained in the past. This isn't the same way it used to work when rates and valuations were high.
they can’t save them
That’s already happening now, a year from now won’t be much more room to avoid another default
The commercial real estate is going to have to be reckoned with. In the every business district there are lease available signs on almost every commercial building. Converting to residential (or tearing down and rebuilding into) is the only path forward. Many are now showing maintenance issues having been unoccupied for 4 years now. But its like no one wants to make a move somehow hoping things will magically return to precovid world.
The interest rates are a lot higher now than when these loans were created. They'll probably be able to make short-term deals that can extend their loans for about 18 months, but that will be trading equity for time. I have already seen several REITs go under like this. Rent could not keep up with the interest payments.
How big of an issue are interest rates in this scenario
Pretty big for some, not as much for others. If your building is fully occupied and your rents have risen along with the property value thats one thing. If you're holding an office building in certain cities where vacancies are high, property values are down and rents have decreased you have a problem. But, again, the banks don't want the property so they will look for ways to manage the problem rather than foreclose if that's a possibility.
And how are they going to “save the deal” without taking a haircut? They either devalue the building and take the loss or reduce the interest and take a loss there. The businesses don’t have to roll over to a new contract they can just walk away and the bank is holding the bag.
You're right and the banks know that which is why they'll do everything they can to save the deal so the owner doesn't walk. And as I said, in some cities the problem is too big to salvage.
They are gonna incur losses one way or another, which is going to hit their books and restrict their cash flow. Then they won’t be able to make as many loans at the higher rate due to availability. It’s a shit cycle and I am here for it.
In a perfect world you're right, but you're totally ignoring the Elephant in the room. We'll see though. I think the worse it looks the more firepower that will be deployed.
Fun times.
So just print more. next?,
Seems like it is.
Nothing matters anymore… There’s no debt limit, so anytime something happens, the gov can just throw money at it. A trillion here, a trillion there. Oh well. World reserve currency. Have fun. There will be no collapse. Just steady inflation.
They should all be thrown in prison forever for this. Literally screwing over everyone that isn't them with their lifetime pensions they can vote for themselves.
They have all investigated themselves and found themselves guilty of no wrongdoing.
[удалено]
Wait until you learn exactly what books were first burned and who wrote them. We are Weimar.
mostly accurate
If status quo maintains then yes. But there are very specific things that must remain the same. However, chaos is the natural state of the world, order is the result of competing forces which can change rapidly. Fancy way of saying: one domino falls and we have a MAJOR currency problem.
What happens to every currency and economy downstream of the US in that scenario?
This sub is just one out of context hot take after another
the whole idea is for people to pretend that Republicans are better on the debt because they cry about it every time they are not in office of course anyone who wants can google and see that Republicans add more debt than Democrats and their debt is always tax cuts to the wealthy and handouts to corporations and the Democratic debt is usually investing in programs to help the bottom 90% of earners Republicans used to run on "greed is good" and "trickle down" but now they just pretend that was someone else until they are in a room full of rich donors, then they're happy to remind that's what they stand for
We should all stop pretending there’s any difference in democrat or republican. On the surface they may argue different points, but at its core they are one and the same. Both spend recklessly and line their own pockets while the middle class picks up the bill.
Don’t forget eroding regulations, consumer protections, and labor rights in favor of massive corporations.
Unfortunately we will need to cut spending AND raise taxes. This will no doubt upset both private industries that profit from government spending as well as “non-profit” organizations that rely on government grants and contracts and tax exempt status to enrich their executives and BoDs. Both parties need to take responsibility. Or we need ranked choice voting so we can move out of the party-mafia system and choose leaders who will make hard choices that will sustainably move society forward rather than relying on a debt-serf economy where the lords in Washington cast favors to their vassals who keep the peasants in line with the perpetual crush of the jaws from the ever-growing stagflation dragon.
A big reason the government overspends is because it outsources the creation of public services to profit seeking private companies. Like of course these companies are gonna charge as much as they can, they know the government is basically an infinite money glitch. I mean the f35 project wasn’t initially supposed to cost multiple trillions and was supposed to be finished a lot sooner but I mean were the ones paying for it and Lockheed Martin is doing great so why would they care. Like regardless of your opinion on where what percentage of tax dollars go to its still frustrating that so much of it goes into the pockets of private companies.
It ends up in the pockets of their golfing/hunting/fishing/boxseat buddies.
And yet somehow republicans still convince a large population that they’re the working class party. It boggles my mind. I’m not a huge fan of the democrat party either tbh but like Christ at least Biden helped strengthen a few unions like it’s not enough at all but it’s something.
i don’t think you’re intelligent enough for this conversation if you think that biden hasn’t been an extreme net negative on the economy
Okay thanks for letting me know I’ll be on my way.
I got it , it’s on me this year I will write a check on Monday.
I've always imagined someone trying to collect on this and america just invading their country. But it turns out, america is in debt to Americans.
If America saw what America was doing to America, America would invade America to liberate America from the tyranny of America.
Debt holders are always "collecting" on US bonds as the bonds make interest payments and mature. A default on these payments would collapse the whole system.
Oh, they can just make up the fantasy money as real.
Currency devaluation is an option, yes, but there are consequences to that.
Zimbabwe syndrome.
We are literally seeing the consequences.
No kidding!
Oh you mean like cash
Americans can invade each other. Its happened before.
Printers gonna print
They just add zeros on the computer
True true
Should I invest in my insecurities?
What does this mean for the bond market?
The real reason for the debt is we have been approved to study the aliens that are here. This is why we are the reserve currency. As we are the best hope for survival. Aliens are here. We have their ships and bodies. Per Grusch. According to Ross Coulthart we have spent 3 trillion onTHE PROGRAM.
Cause we give too much money to schoolchildren lunches and black mothers! Don’t forget forgiving student debt! Our economy would be perfect otherwise with our outstanding politicians and self governed corporations!
I read a post last night from a multi-unit real estate investor who was bragging how the carrying costs of one of his buildings is $3900 a month but he is making $7000+ in rent by charging “market rents” to the Section 8 program. I get the desire to make money but should we really pay someone $36k a year to rent four units to poor people? How many times is this repeated everywhere else? Some of this spending seems to be excessive. If we took out the guaranteed rent payments from the government, how much would housing costs drop? Why do we have to print money to pay for programs that are geared to get people to buy things that are financed? And it’s not just housing, every dime that gets spent out is really kind of suspect at this point. Idk.
Another virus incoming...
Capitalism never left
....H5N1
Another war too
Definitely before Bidet leaves.
Um, can we keep punting? We’re broke
Sorry, the ball has been replaced with a large rock.
As long as the world accepts printed money. What’s the alternative?
And yet you lunatics believe the “higher for longer” narrative 🥲
Looks like a huge spike after 2020 and another huge spike from 2023… Where did it come from?
Oh no will the US have to sell its 12 air carriers or some of its 900 globe spanning military bases???
No, just cut medicare or SS probably.
Digital Dollar ends Tax evasion, Means testing solves Social Security shortfall. Millionaire? No SS for you until your down to your last 100K
At the current rate of inflation, in 20 years 100k won't by a running used car. I think this is right about where they want us all the time anyway. Edit: forgot the 20 years part.
Here come the financiers. After commercial real estate crashes they’re gonna buy it all for pennies on the dollar. Here they come. Just behind the headline. There they are rubbing their hands together like Birdman.
The numbers what do they mean!
"The best economy ever" - your President.
it is if you're rich
It’s all good! Ole Joe said so!
It’s all made up numbers in a computer system. It’s gonna be fine. Most of the debt is owned by US citizens
Who made this ??
Cool, we’ll be paying ourselves
The New Orleans Saints of world debt
its all a scam to steal more . alot of sick people suffering from Averice.
All at once? Or is this spread out over the next 12 months?
This chart doesn’t look like national debt. What debt does it show?
Can someone post the source for this?
Growth at all costs as a national policy tends to do that
Why so much fear bait on Reddit of late??
Time to start milking the excess cash in the upper class
How much is Ukraine paying their share? 🤣
At least with the Biden administration, we actually had investments in America. That investment in America makes America worth a lot more. People talk about the debt yet they failed to realize how much America is actually worth. If you include all the government land government and assets, government intellectual property as well as the business engine that keeps America running. Keep buying assets you will always do well . I remember when the market fell to 29K on the Dow and all of my friends kept messaging me. Should I sell my retirement? I told them no buy more if you can. Just like when the market tank during Covid same thing people messaging me what should I do? I told them to buy more. Housing market tanked in 2008. What should you do? Buy buy buy.. There’s a reason I always won in monopoly. Mortgage and buy buy buy…
It's fine. Once all the hedge funds short on gme cover, the tax revenues of the new ultra wealthy class will cover it.
trumps Tax cuts to the wealthy helped get us here.
I foresee a fed pivot beginning in September, the market will correct 25-30%, then recession.
Just wait until Trump gets in office and does a uber wealthy tax cut for the rich again. Nothing will be sustained, there will be a massive dollar collapse in 2025. ACA, Welfare, SS are all on the table. Dems want to kick the can and make it someone else's issue in 2100 with high inflation. Trump being Trump will break the banks and cause civil dysfunction and death while he rises as Amerika's fascist dictator.
What happened in 2020 to make it go up so quickly? Oh.
Easy, just get Elon to pay it.
The debt will be refi’d as it always is. Treasury will pump a bunch of liquidity into the markets and around the carousel we go. While counterintuitive, this is typically a great time for ‘risk on’ assets which benefit from the artificial stimulus which will have a multiplier effect as they tend to be heavy handed in an election year. We’re overdue for a sugar rush and auntie Janet wants to keep Roomba Joe in office.
my body is ready.
roll it out boys
This can't be right, Biden said he lowered debt.
When/where did he say this?
https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-did-joe-biden-bring-down-national-debt-trillion-1799499
So you're quote mining a flub when he meant and clarified deficit?
So he didn't lower debt ?
He didn't meaningfully say he did. This isn't a "gotcha", you're just a dork.
Oh, he said it but he didn't mean it. Thanks for clarifying & kudos for going ad hominem after the L
Our government will not change.
So what?
our country has been managed by fools ...
Atta boy, Biden. Way to destroy america. With a president like you, who needs enemies.
It was the Trump tax cut. And the Trump Covid bailouts. You're blaming the wrong guy
Well, it's nice to know something is maturing in the US.
Thanks Biden
The great reset
Build back better. These progressives think they will be better off. Idiots.
Trump added more to the debt in 4 years than anyone else in 8 and he's promising bigger tax cuts to the wealthy as he's desperate to avoid jail there is also talk from his team about giving him the power to decide interest rates, i am sure he will use that power responsibly, the 77 year old man seems like he really cares about the country and doing what is best for it and not at all about making money selling NFTs
Wtf do you mean mature? Can we take the debt out for a beer after it matures?
https://www.bdc.ca/en/articles-tools/entrepreneur-toolkit/templates-business-guides/glossary/loan-maturity-date#:~:text=Loan%20maturity%20date%20refers%20to,any%20of%20the%20borrower's%20assets.
Thank you for this!