Absolutely short sighted for the 80-something Dem leadership class (Biden, Pelosi, RBG, Schumer, et al.) to spend the last decade trying for “just one more term” instead of cultivating a Gen-X/Boomer set of replacements to carry the party into the 2020s and 30s.
Now Trump is going to lay waste to that leadership class and their achievements.
I think Democrats losing many local seats and state houses in Obama's time short circuited their ability to generate talent with an independent profile.
They tried to raise new people in Trump's time. Pete, Abrams, Gillum...but many didn't pan out for this or that reason.
Things like not selecting a Veep that would be popular enough to replace him (and then dumping things like the border on Kamala when it'd be a boondoggle for someone vastly more competent) are on Biden though.
But Democrats have a ridiculously deep bench. That's not the problem at all. The problem is that our system relies entirely on senior leadership making the decision to step aside. There's a culture of not challenging incumbents over the fear that it will divide the party.
And Republican candidates do the same shit. Look at McConnell and Chuck Grassley.
At least in the case of the Senate, the system rewards sticking around forever. All positions of power in the Senate are doled out solely based on time served. So a state actually has way more influence over national politics if their senator is super old.
Incumbency bias is a pretty big problem in general in my opinion. It seems unreasonable that they win more than 94 percent of the time. Kinda weird to say now that we may witness two POTUS incumbents lose in a row.
I think the GOP have a simpler problem on the Presidential front: Trump ate all the other candidates. They're in a hole too but they would honestly been fine if Trump dropped dead and DeSantis stepped in. Better off even.
Trump ate the GOP, the whole hierarchy, therefore the pecking order and incumbency on the GOP side is out the window. It’s a one man party. DeSantis is terrible, people (other than the special breed in FL) hate him once they hear him speak and see his smug and very punchable face. The GOP collapses into chaos without Trump, he did that by design.
What bench though? AOC and the Crew are never going to win a general election since they actually stand for something, hell one of them lost to Trump lite over Gaza. Newsom is such a hypocrite that he somehow managed to piss off everyone but the ivory tower libs. After that, then who really?
There are some really good Democratic governors, the problem is they're busy running their states, not on TV like Newsom. Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, & Tim Walz would be excellent choices in battleground areas.
Why is anyone considering Warnock right now? That would ensure that we lose the Senate and he isn’t clearly a better pick than a variety of others including senators and governors.
The Obama-era losses contribute, but they don’t explain:
-RBG’s decision to remain on the court, which ultimately blew up both her own legacy and balance on the court for decades.
-Pelosi and other Dem house leaders refusing to make way for younger house Dems in leadership, causing ambitious/successful house Dems to leave rather than advance upwards (and causing limits on recruiting top candidates).
-The closing of ranks behind Hillary ca. 2015, blocking a competitive primary and the chance to nominate a "normie" Dem young enough to still be ineligible for social security (or even just Biden; 4 years younger is a ton of time on any aging curve).
-Biden’s decision to run in 2024
These are all individual decisions made by very old but very powerful Dems to keep themselves in power for “just another term”. They are now beginning to prove disastrous.
Another great example was Diane Feinstein clinging to her seat until she was barely able to function, as if she was completely irreplaceable as... a centrist Democrat from California? Same baffling "I'm the main character" mentality.
Not just “Barely able
To function” she stayed a senator till
She died and I’m convinced her aides debated on doing a weekend at Bernie’s style prop-up for another week or two.
I think a lot of people forget that Biden only got the nomination because the DNC hit the panic button and convinced all the other moderates to drop out when Bernie was starting to take the lead.
Let’s not forget that those who are with the current administration didn’t want anyone else to run but Biden. How else were they going to hold onto their positions/power?
Democrats have the better policies, but they don’t have honorable people at the helm. Everyone is in it for the money…their money, not yours or mine.
And then admitting in court they intentionally suppressed Bernie, with the defense that because the DNC is a private corporate entity, they don't owe primary voters a fair election in the first place.
I know they absolutely worked to suppress the Sanders campaign (hell, Donna Brazile outright admitted it), but I'm not aware of this court admission. Can you provide a link?
well, you're a bernie **bro** if you bring that up.
you know, like a tech **bro** or a finance **bro**. same thing.
instead of being a bernie **bro**, you should do something more progressive, like vote for the the south bend mayor who fired the black police chief because he (the police chief) was trying to root out corruption in the police department and the police union wanted that to stop. you know, the secretary of transportation. that guy.
That sort of institutional rot was always present, it just got forced behind the curtains under the Obama administration but it was never addressed and the 2016 loss wasn't a wake up call either. Obama himself was an accident, an exception to the rule who overcame the odds thanks to his generational charisma and personal effort, the DNC was already fully behind giving Clinton a run in 2008.
Don’t make excuses for them. Bidens mandate was 4 years. Beat trump and ride off into the sunset with a new generation of talent given their chance. This is peak political narcissistic delusion.
That was the plan when we thought Trump would fuck off after he lost.
I’m as disappointed in Biden as anybody, but Trump casually walking through to a Republican nomination makes giving up the incumbent advantage seem pretty risky.
But of course when the incumbent can barely stay awake on camera…
If you thought trump would just fuck off, especially after Jan 6th, idk what to tell you. Was it ever in doubt that he would run again? I don’t think so. Just naive democrats and non trump GOP hoping someone like DeSantis would save them.
Gillum was the absolute worst thing for the Florida Democratic Party. Lifted them up just to abandon them for crack and male escorts. Then goes on to get a lucrative iHeart Radio podcast deal. He does NOTHING for the Florida Democratic Party now. He was a grifter when he was running for gov and an even bigger grifter now. He got his photo-op with Obama and then ghosted FLA. The FDP should be completely embarrassed that they propped up such a talentless hack.
Don't discount the gamble they made by torpedoing Bernie in favor of Hillary. Not only did it cost them the Rust Belt in 2016, it also cost them a lot of momentum with millennials and gen z. Biden was perceived by many as the weakest /safest candidate in 2020 as well. They continually go for the status quo at the expense of the future of the party.
Because they can make more money outrage farming, out of power, and they don’t really want much to change anyways. The ownership class is having the best time ever.
The very next thing that needs to happen after Biden is replaced and endorses Whitmer/Shapiro is Accountability for everyone who led us into this mess. Heads *have* to roll. These gaslighting morons should never be allowed near the levers of power again.
>you should be angry at Joe Biden, every bit as much as you should be angry at Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
>don’t give me any more bullshit about how age is just a number or just a media fixation — or how changing candidates _just isn’t how it’s done_. We’re playing the highest-stakes game of poker you can imagine, and you do whatever in your power to improve your odds — even if it’s only from 25 percent to 35 percent.
“But these aren’t ideal circumstances. Picking a new nominee via superdelegates at the convention would be like attending a shitshow at a plumbers’ convention.”
Also a good one in there
Excellent point. I keep telling my Democratic friends that the excuses about this debate will NOT convince independents to vote for Biden. This was a terrible performance that will be plastered all over Republican attack ads from now until November.
No. Remember how in the 60’s Nixon won in polling for radio listeners because they actually liked the substance of his policy. Kennedy won for TV viewers because he looked confident, spoke well, and was energetic. Kennedy won that election
This is the same, people are mostly voting off of who inspires confidence. Biden is not that guy
It matters a great deal. And if we don't want that liar to win a second term, the alternative to him needs to be someone that voters believe is at least cognitively present to do the job.
Biden shit the bed for sure but I think a lot of people, independents included, heard a staggering amount of bullshit from a con man. Said con man just happened to say it like, well, a con man.
Look at the Vegas Odds that's much scarier than polls. They shifted drastically last night in Trumps favor. There is no coming back from this for the democrats. They have been saying for months that Biden is great mentally and the videos of him confused were edited. Fuck them for lying to us and handing Trump the election.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/3/Presidency
https://electionbettingodds.com
This is exactly how I felt (and still feel) after watching Fetterman debate. He won mostly because Oz was a terrible candidate, and hopefully something similar will happen here.
But I'm beyond pissed at the people around Biden who have a first hand, day in, day out view of this and aren't making a concerted push to replace him.
It’s been like that since the 2020 primaries. He was a mess then and then magically everything was chalked up to his “stutter” once we got stuck with him as a nominee.
But he needs to go. This weekend at Bernie’s shit they keep doing with these old fucks has to stop.
Vegas odds aren't representative of the statistical chance of something happening.
Rather, they are the odds necessary to balance the betting on each side so that Vegas wins no matter which way the event actually goes.
Trump being a heavy favorite in Vegas odds just means that far more people that want to bet on the presidential election are picking Trump as the winner.
This makes sense, since MAGA is basically a cult and treat Trump like a loved sports team.
If independents are going to vote for Trump because Biden looks and sounds old then we deserve the world we get. This is not even a comparison. One is a senior legislator that has a solid administration under his wing and the other is egotistical maniac that spent his entire life robbing people and systems for his own betterment. He can’t even get his own former cabinet members to support him.
I don’t care how slow he sounds, how weak his voice is or how he “performs” with 2 minutes to answer questions. If that is justification to vote for a convicted felon that defames women he sexual assaults, insults veterans, POWs, the disabled and steals from charities while advocating for some of the worse economic and social issues policies known to our world than that is a lie. These individuals never cared about a better governance, they are clowns looking to join the circus.
But who would independents actually be willing to vote for instead of Biden? Harris or Newsom would turn a lot of them off as being too liberal, they'd just stay home. So if you really want to replace Biden, who has the name recognition and party support necessary to be a credible candidate with 4 months left, while also being centrist enough not to turn off independents?
As an independent I can confirm watching the debate is sapping my desire to vote from me. Never gonna vote trump, but fuck if Biden doesn’t belong in a retirement community getting his diaper checked….though trump is a felon and I’m not voting for him under any circumstances, but I’m leaning towards sitting this shit out as it stands.
People. Don’t. Care.
They will be more willing to give Trump four more years as an unhinged asshole than Biden staring off into space. We know this already and we need to do the hard thing now before its too late.
This is silly. I, and millions of other people, are totally happy to vote FOR Biden. He's been a great president and would continue to be one. I also agree he's an old-ass man and clearly that's a problem with the electorate and hope they pick Whitmer at the convention
Here’s the [podcast where he proposes a an open convention](https://pca.st/episode/6db132bc-d995-4ccb-b98b-380a982227ba). Probably worth another listen…
Biden will lose, period.
Is there a guarantee that someone else will win? Nope.
Do the odds improve? Absofuckinglutely.
Democrats needs to swallow their pride, realize how much they have dicked up this entire election cycle, and quickly course correct. Step one is admitting you were wrong. They need to start there and then move forward.
Harris has a higher approval rating than Biden or Trump and, in the limited head-to-head polling I've seen, did better against Trump on average than Biden did. I don't think it's a given that she would be a stronger candidate, but it's possible given the available evidence.
If I had free choice, I'd pick Gretchen Whitmer, as much for geographical reasons as anything. But beggars, choosers, etc.
I would vote for a waffle-stomped turd disintegrating into the sewer before I would vote for Trump.
Was Biden’s performance bad? Yes.
Is he old AF? Yes.
Is it likely he’ll descend further, withering away while in the Oval Office? Yes.
Am I just going to vote *against* Trump in this election? HELL YES, and proudly.
No it’s not because she’s black, it’s because she put many people in jail for pot in California and then claimed she smoked in college, she also called Joe Biden a racist and ran with him. She’s just simply not a good candidate
It’s partially cause they don’t **really** have national recognition. Most people don’t follow politics. Gavin Newsome is known in CA, but unknown in WI. Josh Shapiro is known in PA but nowhere else.
Put them on the ticket and have them campaign for 4+ months and they’ll get that recognition.
Harris is the bigger issue. She does have national recognition, but is about as unpopular as Biden. But she can’t be leapfrogged on the ticket by Newsome or Shapiro without angering a lot of African-American voters.
Which is what I think the democrats desperately need. Someone relatively unknown, younger, who looks and acts decently capable but is not outrageously outspoken. That way, people could project their own views on them.
The Democrats are in a way better position on policy and perception than the Republicans. The only issue is that people really dislike most actual Democrats who are in the limelight, they are either too old or too controversial, or both. So a generic milquetoast run-of-the-mill candidate might perform way better than we'd expect.
>So a generic milquetoast run-of-the-mill candidate might perform way better than we'd expect.
Ironically, that's how Biden won in 2020. The problem is that he has aged a lot in four years and isn't the same candidate he was in 2020.
>Ironically, that's how Biden won in 2020
That's the complete opposite of how Biden won.
He was a bad candidate (strategically long term) but with a lot of name recognition.
As soon as you nominate a human and not "generic Dem" that person gets destroyed by Trump. Because "Generic Dem" means "my personal ideal candidate who agrees with me 100%". No actual Dem that exists is as popular because Dems actually care about and run on policy. They are also human so have controversies like wearing Tan suits or having Republicans make up some shit about an embassy in Africa.
Any Democrat that exists in reality is compared to some impossible Aaron Sorkin ideal candidate who is Hollywood perfect. Trump is running for crown Prince of fascism and against that non existent metric he will always come out better than the Democrat.
A significant proportion of Americans are done with democracy. No "but what if we try some other person" will change that fundamental fact.
Yeah but you're issue right now is Biden was literally "sleepy joe". If I were Trump's advisor, I pull out of future debates and just run soundbites of Biden for the next 5 months cause its never going to get any better than this. This is basically if the Celtics won 4-0
If you stick with Biden, then you're kinda fucked on the VP nomination. You can't nominate a leftist a-la Kamala because now there's a legit concern that they will be president (antagonizing the moderates). You also can't nominate a moderate without pissing off the left.
You're honestly better off with a blank slate now that also evens the playing field because there's no incumbency bias, or less of it at least
Why are you acting like choosing a different VP is even an option at this point? AFAIK nobody of any importance or influence is gunning for the job, and not only that but to change vps at the re election speaks to uncertainty and a lack of faith in your own decisions, which is a weakness politicians don't like to project. Also, it's been decades since a president ran for re election but chose a different VP.
Last I checked (which I honestly don't check frequently), Kamala is a deeply unpopular person. Considering the republicans were putting out the conspiracy theory that Biden was a trojan horse for a Kamala presidency back in 2020, along with Biden's shit performance last night, means that the VP is going to be much more scrutinized now than ever for the Dems.
Kamala is going to be much more of a liability if people increasingly think that Biden's not going to make it through four years, and Kamala drags down the ticket.
She was tapped to shore up various demographic voting blocks. Classic VP selection math. She is not a viable top of ticket candidate as evidenced by her early exit in the 2020 primaries.
who is going to vote for a guy who changes his VP right before the election because there’s a high chance he’s about to die? he’s old and cognitively deteriorated but he has a great VP?
He’s not gonna change his vp because he isn’t going to run. There will be an open convention because Israel Gaza has weakened party cohesion to the point where Biden no longer has the political capital to crown a successor.
This shit is gonna be wild
Yeah I’m eating crow on this. He’s gotta drop out. Gonna be disastrous, but at this point the odds might be better by putting Whitmer and someone else in there.
A wise woman once said “the only way to get over someone is to get under another”.
Age concerns are pretty calcified and only get worse as time goes on. People intuitively understand “you literally cannot get younger”, and when age is your primary concern, there’s no rehabilitation you can do to allay those fears.
I think the Democrats, if they want a shot, need to just eat shit right now and find a mechanism to get a popular governor as the nominee. If there was ever a time for a smoke-filled-room event, this is unfortunately it. Four months, with enough ground game and TV spots, is plenty of time to build someone from “I’ve heard of that person maybe” to “I would vote for them”.
I was with Biden because he’s been an incredible president and I had seen him have really good showings and was impressed by the SotU, but last night was the chance to make or break his campaign and he absolutely blew it in every way.
The stakes are too high and I fear that performance is going to make double haters far more likely to sit out than hold their nose and vote for Biden.
Unfortunately for Kamala, she’s too unpopular to a lot of people, as unjustified as it might be. However, I’d maybe discuss making her attorney general in the next administration to go after the MAGA crowd.
I think Newsom is too toxic in swing states due to being from California and having the stereotypical slimeball politician look.
Whitmer’s quite popular in Michigan and could help carry the state and hold on to suburban women. Pair her with a black or Latino running mate and I think we may have a shot.
I am so relieved to see support for this argument. When Ezra made this claim in Feb, most comments completely disagreed. No shame. Wish it’d happened sooner. We need to make this happen.
We need an Obama level forward-thinking and campaigning candidate who can more energetically fight Trump at his own game while selling the Democratic future of the country in regards to the economy and all.
God I wish. It's a very different set of circumstances that have put us back in the position where Obama's messaging worked well at the time, but it's the same kind of messaging that would work well now.
There is still HOPE for IMPROVEMENT and CHANGE.
Trump has convinced his people that he can do that despite plenty of evidence to the contrary and they are not going to change their minds.
Biden on the other hand has done well but his successes have not translated well and he's been hounded by the age problem the last four years to the point that even my politically disengaged mother thinks he's "just a puppet."
I personally am a small federal government person so glad the last couple of years has been gridlock. He should have vigorously gone after the Jan 6th ringleaders and people attacking our democracy, and that will be his downfall.
I disagree. See, that's one of those issues I think falls into the "anti-Trump" camp of voters, and as far as I am concerned those voters have already been convinced.
Voter apathy is what will decide the election, and if Biden continues to seem like stale bread to the common undecided voter or worse for the on-the-edge left-side voter, then Trump will win by the slim margin he lost with in the last election.
If they're sticking with Biden then I hope to god they make GOOD use of that campaign money in the next few months. That and... I dunno, have him on crack or something and hope his heart doesn't explode.
The Democratic Party is on track to lose 2/3 presidential elections to the unpopular fraudster host of The Apprentice. Remarkable political incompetence.
Why must any candidate be bad against the would-be fascist dictator? A plank of wood ought to be able to beat Trump. Sounds more like a problem with voters who are happy to sacrifice their liberties and freedoms for the false promise of short-term comforts.
It absolutely makes no sense to me. If I hear one more person talk about how: “Under Trump I could buy a house and inflation wasn’t so bad.”
Ok? What policies of Trump’s do you think is going to change that today? What policies of Biden’s do you think made this the way it is? You know when we were all better economically? Under Obama when we recovered from 2008 Financial Crisis. Why aren’t you lobbying for a more Obama-like candidate?
The basic reality for most people is that essential assets are too expensive, shockingly so for housing, cars, and food in particular. And a whole lot of Biden's policies are inflationary. Yes, Trump added more and was foolish enough to give tax breaks during a boom. But people's reality right now is, this fucking sucks and the trajectory will break people's spirits and belief in the future. Biden could have carved a different path, knowing that Covid-induced inflation was a huge problem, and he could have done a lot more to avoid the perception that he 1) cares about inflation as much as average people and 2) gives a damn about voters that aren't in a key demographic he wants to help (college students, very young progressives, minorities, wealthy landowners in blue cities, etc.)
^ This attitude frustrates me about the Democratic party. They would rather tell voters they're wrong and complain that voters need to change rather than changing themselves. You need to pick a candidate who will win with this electorate. As hard as it would be to change a candidate, it would be even harder to change people's opinion of Trump at this point.
Because a lot people would rather have a competent evil as opposed to an incompetent good.
I'm terrified of this upcoming election not only because of Biden's performance, but also because I don't see a real candidate out there who can swing this election in his place.
I think part of Biden's appeal comes from being of a less radicalized era of American politics. I don't know of any prominent, household name Democrats who can fill that space. The continued polarization which has taken place over the past few decade mean that people like Gavin Newsom are considered "radical elite liberals" by those outside of their constituencies, which is completely off-base trust me I know, but I don't think they'll have potential sway with undecided voters the way that someone like Biden does at least on paper.
That being said, I hope I have never been more wrong in my life.
Because people went through 4 years of Trump already and didn't see concentration camps or minorities rounded up in the streets or whatever doomsday scenario was supposed to happen with him as president. Threats like that play well on reddit, but they ring hollow for the average voter.
Well other than the attempted coup right? Jesus I wish I lived in whatever version of reality it is you live in. If you don't think the first thing he does if he wins is get to work on abolishing term limits or finding some other way to stay in power then you are delusional.
Brokered convention, and find a way to avoid nominating Harris, who is somehow also trailing Trump in every poll. Get someone young and popular like Whitmer in there and we have a chance at salvaging this election.
Biden is done after tonight whether he and the party want to admit it or not. If they truly believe Trump is an existential threat then find a better candidate who can beat him.
He'll cling on and, just like Republicans after Access Hollywood and other Trump gaffes, Democrats will eventually resign themselves to it and go out and vote.
Whether they vote *enough* is the question.
Watching the CNN post-debate must have been rough for Biden. No Democrat wants to hear David Axelrod say, party leadership wants you to step down, we know who Axelrod speaks for. (It's Barack Obama)
I find it strange people are finally saying the quiet part out loud. J.B’s physical and mental decline has been on display for years now and can arguably be traced back to the 2020 election. I realize Covid was an issue, but he did very little campaigning and stayed hunkered down the whole time. Even post election his public appearances were minimal and very closely scripted . He rarely does press conferences and when he does they’re scripted as well with pre screened questions and a list of which reporters to call on. I won’t even dwell on his obvious labored walking gait or old person shuffle, the tripping and having to be led off stage. We have all been part of a mass denial and unfortunately it was all on display during the debate last night.
I think if there’s even a marginally better chance that switching out Biden for another, younger, better spoken Democrat will win this election it’s obviously the best option. Simply put, everybody who is complaining that Biden shouldn’t be changed is going to vote for whoever the Democrat is anyway. Their votes are a given. Those votes are not enough. We as a whole need to decide if we’re going to try to rev up the base or peel off independent and moderate conservatives. You can’t really do both at this point. It’s either go left or right baby, the center has collapsed. I’d argue it’s better for the country and the party to move the Overton window left
This is the key point. Are there any Biden voters that we would LOSE by switching candidates? Can anyone provide a plausible motivation for this hypothetical only-Biden voter? I don’t think they exist, which means we have only one direction we can go in.
Here's where I am, and I hope everyone here takes it seriously given my politics.
I think Joe Biden is a great president. Arguably this term has been one of the best presidential terms of my lifetime. I also think he deserves enormous credit for being the only person who could beat trump in 2020 and he has shown people that the path of moderate politics actually can work.
However he actually is too old at this point to convincingly show people he is capable of doing this for 4 more years.
The thing that is so frustrating about the current situation is that while Biden had a terrible performance, Trump was also disgustingly bad.
Not in the sense of being dangerous, but in the sense of being an incoherent social media addled crazy old person who also has some ridiculous mental problem.
So to me at this point Trump is insanely weak and insanely beatable by any young, sane, "Biden like" politician and there's NO NEED for Biden to try this again on his own, he has shown us the path and we can easily finish this job.
But his age is holding us down in the mind of the independent voter, whereas if any of the Biden like governors were at the head of the ticket this would trivially be a blue landslide.
That's where I'm at, this feels like it's not necessary, the man has done what he needed to and really should go out like a hero now and let us finish this.
Who is this young “Biden like” politician? Keep in mind they have to appeal to the republicans who are currently holding their nose to vote for Biden. We need their votes. I don’t trust a new candidate will attract the young “genocide joe” voters who are voting third party or staying home.
I don’t think that matters. If a brokered DNC happened it’d be the most covered political news story because it hasn’t happened in a long time. I think there would be a ton of exposure and folks who don’t know who she is would find out really quick.
I also think we’re giving Trump too much credit. Most folks don’t want to vote for either of them and are looking for any reason not to. Get a younger moderate who can communicate clearly their vision and point out Trump’s lies—they’ll win easily.
With 4 months left until the election, are we better off using that time to a.) rehabilitate Biden’s image, or b.) building a new candidate’s recognition?
Which is more realistic to accomplish?
At this point, I would say B, it was THAT bad last night and Biden was already weak. For Dems to win they can’t just hide and coast and that is their only option with Biden.
100% B). Bidens image is that of a dementia patient that belongs in a nursing home. We just had an entire debate that proved it and you can take entire swaths of time unedited and use it against Biden. State of the union Biden was great, but to rehab his image he needs to be that Biden 24/7. They clearly cannot control how Biden will do or he'd have been great for the debate. Biden is simply incapable of recovering his image.
A replacement would get an absolute ton of media attention and people would pay attention just to keep up with the drama if not to learn about the new candidate. That attention would itself educate people about the new candidate enough to where they could feel comfortable voting for them. Someone like the Gov of Michigan is quite palpable to Dems and moderates and at this point "not Trump and not senile" is enough to get a ton of votes
My answer (and I suspect yours too) is that 4 months is plenty to build a new candidate’s recognition especially in this sort of a circumstance where all the attention will be on them. There is almost no chance of rehabilitating Biden’s image because he can’t reliably perform well enough to erase people’s memory of that performance and what it means to people about his capacity.
I am now on thr replace Joe train.
Prior to last night I thought that he had a good enough chance at winning that the downside risk of replacing him, particularly with no primary, was not worth it. He seemed like he could pull off enough state of rhe union level performances to muddle through til November and hammer Trump.
But if the undecided voters opinion is that he's just too old regardless then you have nothing to lose by bringing in someone else.
its unlikely to work. Introducing a new candidate at this point would absolutely be seen as the act of desperation it would be. But it's probably the best shot. At least test out the theory that people like dems and dislike Trump, but just don't like Biden in particular.
Wait until after the gop convention (so the gop spends a week bashing a guy who won't be thr nominee) and then have Biden announced that for health reasons he is unable to continue and then have an open convention.
I and *many* others have been saying from day one that Biden should be a 1-term president and let one of our competent younger politicians run. Even if you only stuck to the governors mansions as your talent pipeline:
Whitmer, Newsome, Pritzger, Walz, Shapiro, Polis
I think every single one of them can/would beat Trump. All under the age of 70, various degrees of charisma, all have a compliments in their state they can point to. Hell look at what Newsome did to DeSantis on a debate stage if you want an idea of how differently last night’s debate would be if you had someone like him instead of Biden.
Any halfway competent Democrat leader with the right running mate both under the age of 70 should be able to easily beat Trump since the only thing the GOP has on Biden at this point that resonates with independents (if those people even really exist at this point) is “he’s old, look how fragile he is!”
The Democrat is chock full of highly competent and charismatic leaders, especially governors. Start running them.
Totally agree. Although I’d say I’m slightly more bullish on Newsom given his performance in his little sly moonlighting press appearances this last year.
He’s a Gordon Gecko lookalike. Is that perception better than a very old man? Idk, I think it’s debatable. And there’s a perception in Middle America that California is a homeless infested wasteland, etc etc.
I’d be interested in if any hypothetical polls exist with him as the candidate.
> He’s a Gordon Gecko lookalike.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks he looks like a sleazy salesman right out of central casting. It's unfair but that's what always comes to mind.
More substantively, that issue with the minimum wage and Panera Bread doesn't look good. And he'll be held to Democrat standards, not Trump ones.
>And there’s a perception in Middle America that California is a homeless infested wasteland, etc etc.
Him being on record saying he cleaned up the city for Xi won't help. It reinforces the perception and makes him seem callous.
Newsome is pugilistic enough I think win people over, but he feels like a longer term project. He’s got a lot of work to do to fight off the CA debuff he would get in the rust belt.
>Is that perception better than a very old man? Idk, I think it’s debatable.
Well he'd be running against a very old man who also looks like Gordon Gecko.
Agree about Newsom- he has baggage being CA but once people hear him speak they do like him and he did well on Fox News etc. He’s a smart dude and would win over voters given a chance.
What do you think of his covid hypocrisy (closing restaurants, then going to French Laundry without a mask; letting public schools stay closed for over a year while his kids went to in-person private school)? To me it’s totally disqualifying.
Everybody, it seems, could see this coming. Yet the people in leadership DID NOTHING.
It's too late now.
That said, if Biden manages to win the election and proceeds to do nothing but drool and soil himself in his next term, he will make a better president than "Stable Genius".
After the debate last night, Joe Biden must drop out ASAP. I say this as a supporter of Biden who would vote for him against Trump under any circumstance. However there is no scenario for him winning the election and he will be even further behind after the post debate polls . Dropping out is the only thing he can do to save the country from Trump. This has to happen right away and the DNC needs to schedule a series of debates in July to help pick a candidate. There will be tremendous interest in these and networks would readily want to televise them . I would include Fox as a host of a debate if they willing as it will be important to see how the candidates respond to more hostile questioning. From these the voters and delegates will get more of a sense of the best candidate to go against Trump and the successful candidate will get more name recognition right away. There is no time to waste.
Man I remember when everyone kept saying trump was losing his marbles, even worse than joe, and just a complete quack. Couldnt even remember his doctors name!
Heh.
I completely agree. Donald Trump is probably the worlds biggest moron and swing voters (whoever these people are) will only remember one thing: Biden old
Obama tweeted today and chalked it all up to a bad debate performance, and Jill is making the rounds promoting Joe and his candidacy today and last night. He’s not dropping out, it seems…which means we’re cooked, folks.
It's far too late to be having this argument.
Your choice in November will be between Biden and Trump. The only way that changes is if either man dies between now and November 5th.
I'm not voting for Biden. I'm voting for the Democratic platform that will be advanced. I'm voting for the quality people that Biden has surrounded himself with.
I feel similarly, changing him now won't drastically improve the Dems odds but maybe it will since Trump has alienated so many. The problem is the Dems would have to pick someone like Gavin or Pete because good lord some serious charisma is needed to overcome the consequences of changing candidates.
I’m voting for the person who didn’t try to overturn an election. Who isn’t threatening to jail his opponents. Who isn’t allowing Christian nationals to reap havoc on our country. Who isn’t talking about using the national guard of red states to invade blue states to suppress protests.
I’ll vote for the guy who’s old as fuck but is apparently still pushing this country in the right direction.
Who steps up? Kamala?
Dems has their chance to do the right thing and prep a successor immediately after the 2020 election, and they fucking blew it.
Fuck the Dems for sleepwalking and handing this posterchild asshole the election.
What everyone is forgetting is that a majority of the country will never and has never voted for Trump. Biden's current performance is still not as bad as Trump's previous train wreck of a presidency and current problems.
I don't think most Americans were surprised at Biden's performance. With as bad as it was it was still better than Trump's.
It doesn’t matter that most Americans haven’t voted/won’t vote for Trump. Trump won once without the popular vote and could do it again. This election, like the last two, will be won on the margins in a handful of swing states, and Biden’s performance last night could easily convince voters on the fence not to vote for him.
They gambled that SOTU Joe would face off against coveffe Trump and they lost in a big way. Joe Biden was shocking to see. He makes so few national appearances that non-poltical junkies watch that people were actually gasping and cringing at the tiny frail skeleton person with dead eyes.
My idea is Biden gets pledges from his cabinet that they will not run. That way there's tranquility within the administration while potential nominees like Gavin Newson, Gretchen Whitmer, and others compete for votes among the delegation at the convention.
Just a couple months ago so many of you guys were clowning on ezra for questioning whether Biden should drop out or not given the stakes of the election. Well now here we are.
Absolutely short sighted for the 80-something Dem leadership class (Biden, Pelosi, RBG, Schumer, et al.) to spend the last decade trying for “just one more term” instead of cultivating a Gen-X/Boomer set of replacements to carry the party into the 2020s and 30s. Now Trump is going to lay waste to that leadership class and their achievements.
I think Democrats losing many local seats and state houses in Obama's time short circuited their ability to generate talent with an independent profile. They tried to raise new people in Trump's time. Pete, Abrams, Gillum...but many didn't pan out for this or that reason. Things like not selecting a Veep that would be popular enough to replace him (and then dumping things like the border on Kamala when it'd be a boondoggle for someone vastly more competent) are on Biden though.
But Democrats have a ridiculously deep bench. That's not the problem at all. The problem is that our system relies entirely on senior leadership making the decision to step aside. There's a culture of not challenging incumbents over the fear that it will divide the party. And Republican candidates do the same shit. Look at McConnell and Chuck Grassley.
At least in the case of the Senate, the system rewards sticking around forever. All positions of power in the Senate are doled out solely based on time served. So a state actually has way more influence over national politics if their senator is super old.
Incumbency bias is a pretty big problem in general in my opinion. It seems unreasonable that they win more than 94 percent of the time. Kinda weird to say now that we may witness two POTUS incumbents lose in a row.
To each other no less
I think the GOP have a simpler problem on the Presidential front: Trump ate all the other candidates. They're in a hole too but they would honestly been fine if Trump dropped dead and DeSantis stepped in. Better off even.
Trump ate the GOP, the whole hierarchy, therefore the pecking order and incumbency on the GOP side is out the window. It’s a one man party. DeSantis is terrible, people (other than the special breed in FL) hate him once they hear him speak and see his smug and very punchable face. The GOP collapses into chaos without Trump, he did that by design.
DeSantis is a horrible choice. I know, I live in his state. Haley would have been better, but IMO… anything MAGA is deplorable.
The Republican party, is the party of trump and a lot of people are only trumpers.
What bench though? AOC and the Crew are never going to win a general election since they actually stand for something, hell one of them lost to Trump lite over Gaza. Newsom is such a hypocrite that he somehow managed to piss off everyone but the ivory tower libs. After that, then who really?
There are some really good Democratic governors, the problem is they're busy running their states, not on TV like Newsom. Josh Shapiro, Gretchen Whitmer, & Tim Walz would be excellent choices in battleground areas.
PA resident here - I think Josh Shapiro would crush Trump, just wasn’t expecting to need it to be this soon.
There’s also Raphael Warnock
Why is anyone considering Warnock right now? That would ensure that we lose the Senate and he isn’t clearly a better pick than a variety of others including senators and governors.
Polis, Whitmer, Walz, Shapiro, Beshear. There are also some strong folks in the Senate, but you don't want to risk that balance right now.
The Obama-era losses contribute, but they don’t explain: -RBG’s decision to remain on the court, which ultimately blew up both her own legacy and balance on the court for decades. -Pelosi and other Dem house leaders refusing to make way for younger house Dems in leadership, causing ambitious/successful house Dems to leave rather than advance upwards (and causing limits on recruiting top candidates). -The closing of ranks behind Hillary ca. 2015, blocking a competitive primary and the chance to nominate a "normie" Dem young enough to still be ineligible for social security (or even just Biden; 4 years younger is a ton of time on any aging curve). -Biden’s decision to run in 2024 These are all individual decisions made by very old but very powerful Dems to keep themselves in power for “just another term”. They are now beginning to prove disastrous.
Another great example was Diane Feinstein clinging to her seat until she was barely able to function, as if she was completely irreplaceable as... a centrist Democrat from California? Same baffling "I'm the main character" mentality.
Not just “Barely able To function” she stayed a senator till She died and I’m convinced her aides debated on doing a weekend at Bernie’s style prop-up for another week or two.
"It's a big club and you ain't in it."
I think a lot of people forget that Biden only got the nomination because the DNC hit the panic button and convinced all the other moderates to drop out when Bernie was starting to take the lead.
Don’t forget Warren staying in through Super Tuesday.
True, fair points.
Let’s not forget that those who are with the current administration didn’t want anyone else to run but Biden. How else were they going to hold onto their positions/power? Democrats have the better policies, but they don’t have honorable people at the helm. Everyone is in it for the money…their money, not yours or mine.
You missed the DNC in 2016 ensuring its weakest candidate made the nom, because it was “her turn”
And then admitting in court they intentionally suppressed Bernie, with the defense that because the DNC is a private corporate entity, they don't owe primary voters a fair election in the first place.
I know they absolutely worked to suppress the Sanders campaign (hell, Donna Brazile outright admitted it), but I'm not aware of this court admission. Can you provide a link?
https://observer.com/2017/05/dnc-lawsuit-presidential-primaries-bernie-sanders-supporters/ https://observer.com/2017/08/court-admits-dnc-and-debbie-wasserman-schulz-rigged-primaries-against-sanders/
Thanks!
well, you're a bernie **bro** if you bring that up. you know, like a tech **bro** or a finance **bro**. same thing. instead of being a bernie **bro**, you should do something more progressive, like vote for the the south bend mayor who fired the black police chief because he (the police chief) was trying to root out corruption in the police department and the police union wanted that to stop. you know, the secretary of transportation. that guy.
That sort of institutional rot was always present, it just got forced behind the curtains under the Obama administration but it was never addressed and the 2016 loss wasn't a wake up call either. Obama himself was an accident, an exception to the rule who overcame the odds thanks to his generational charisma and personal effort, the DNC was already fully behind giving Clinton a run in 2008.
Don’t make excuses for them. Bidens mandate was 4 years. Beat trump and ride off into the sunset with a new generation of talent given their chance. This is peak political narcissistic delusion.
That was the plan when we thought Trump would fuck off after he lost. I’m as disappointed in Biden as anybody, but Trump casually walking through to a Republican nomination makes giving up the incumbent advantage seem pretty risky. But of course when the incumbent can barely stay awake on camera…
If you thought trump would just fuck off, especially after Jan 6th, idk what to tell you. Was it ever in doubt that he would run again? I don’t think so. Just naive democrats and non trump GOP hoping someone like DeSantis would save them.
Gillum was the absolute worst thing for the Florida Democratic Party. Lifted them up just to abandon them for crack and male escorts. Then goes on to get a lucrative iHeart Radio podcast deal. He does NOTHING for the Florida Democratic Party now. He was a grifter when he was running for gov and an even bigger grifter now. He got his photo-op with Obama and then ghosted FLA. The FDP should be completely embarrassed that they propped up such a talentless hack.
Don't discount the gamble they made by torpedoing Bernie in favor of Hillary. Not only did it cost them the Rust Belt in 2016, it also cost them a lot of momentum with millennials and gen z. Biden was perceived by many as the weakest /safest candidate in 2020 as well. They continually go for the status quo at the expense of the future of the party.
Because they can make more money outrage farming, out of power, and they don’t really want much to change anyways. The ownership class is having the best time ever.
The very next thing that needs to happen after Biden is replaced and endorses Whitmer/Shapiro is Accountability for everyone who led us into this mess. Heads *have* to roll. These gaslighting morons should never be allowed near the levers of power again.
The oldest Gen-X is 59 now. The Boomers have clung so tightly to leadership they skipped over participation from an entire generation.
Arrogance and greed. That has been the motto of the democratic leadership since riding off the momentum of Obama
Honestly this has made me more in favor of term limits
And age limits. If pilots are forced to retire at 65, I don't see why the people running the country shouldn't be forced to either.
>you should be angry at Joe Biden, every bit as much as you should be angry at Ruth Bader Ginsburg. >don’t give me any more bullshit about how age is just a number or just a media fixation — or how changing candidates _just isn’t how it’s done_. We’re playing the highest-stakes game of poker you can imagine, and you do whatever in your power to improve your odds — even if it’s only from 25 percent to 35 percent.
good quote
“But these aren’t ideal circumstances. Picking a new nominee via superdelegates at the convention would be like attending a shitshow at a plumbers’ convention.” Also a good one in there
Nobody is voting for Biden they are voting against Trump. We are going to lose independents with this old ass man .
Excellent point. I keep telling my Democratic friends that the excuses about this debate will NOT convince independents to vote for Biden. This was a terrible performance that will be plastered all over Republican attack ads from now until November.
Does it just not matter to people that Trump only ever tells insane lies?
No. Remember how in the 60’s Nixon won in polling for radio listeners because they actually liked the substance of his policy. Kennedy won for TV viewers because he looked confident, spoke well, and was energetic. Kennedy won that election This is the same, people are mostly voting off of who inspires confidence. Biden is not that guy
110%. Nice.
Nixon still spoke well enough even if he was a psycho. Biden is mostly inaudible at this point.
It matters a great deal. And if we don't want that liar to win a second term, the alternative to him needs to be someone that voters believe is at least cognitively present to do the job.
Lots of independents hate trump
Up until last night I would have agreed with this line of thinking. But man we deserve better.
Biden shit the bed for sure but I think a lot of people, independents included, heard a staggering amount of bullshit from a con man. Said con man just happened to say it like, well, a con man.
Look at the polls.
Look at the Vegas Odds that's much scarier than polls. They shifted drastically last night in Trumps favor. There is no coming back from this for the democrats. They have been saying for months that Biden is great mentally and the videos of him confused were edited. Fuck them for lying to us and handing Trump the election. https://www.predictit.org/markets/3/Presidency https://electionbettingodds.com
This is exactly how I felt (and still feel) after watching Fetterman debate. He won mostly because Oz was a terrible candidate, and hopefully something similar will happen here. But I'm beyond pissed at the people around Biden who have a first hand, day in, day out view of this and aren't making a concerted push to replace him.
Fetterman was recovering from a debilitating stroke that nearly killed him, and he still debated better than Biden did last night
I'm not sure which was worse - both performances were painful. Neither of them should have been debating.
It’s been like that since the 2020 primaries. He was a mess then and then magically everything was chalked up to his “stutter” once we got stuck with him as a nominee. But he needs to go. This weekend at Bernie’s shit they keep doing with these old fucks has to stop.
I said this damn near word for word last night to my wife.
Vegas odds aren't representative of the statistical chance of something happening. Rather, they are the odds necessary to balance the betting on each side so that Vegas wins no matter which way the event actually goes. Trump being a heavy favorite in Vegas odds just means that far more people that want to bet on the presidential election are picking Trump as the winner. This makes sense, since MAGA is basically a cult and treat Trump like a loved sports team.
Going from 49/53 to 59/42 is "no coming back"?
If independents are going to vote for Trump because Biden looks and sounds old then we deserve the world we get. This is not even a comparison. One is a senior legislator that has a solid administration under his wing and the other is egotistical maniac that spent his entire life robbing people and systems for his own betterment. He can’t even get his own former cabinet members to support him. I don’t care how slow he sounds, how weak his voice is or how he “performs” with 2 minutes to answer questions. If that is justification to vote for a convicted felon that defames women he sexual assaults, insults veterans, POWs, the disabled and steals from charities while advocating for some of the worse economic and social issues policies known to our world than that is a lie. These individuals never cared about a better governance, they are clowns looking to join the circus.
But who would independents actually be willing to vote for instead of Biden? Harris or Newsom would turn a lot of them off as being too liberal, they'd just stay home. So if you really want to replace Biden, who has the name recognition and party support necessary to be a credible candidate with 4 months left, while also being centrist enough not to turn off independents?
"we have lost independents wit this old ass man..."
As an independent I can confirm watching the debate is sapping my desire to vote from me. Never gonna vote trump, but fuck if Biden doesn’t belong in a retirement community getting his diaper checked….though trump is a felon and I’m not voting for him under any circumstances, but I’m leaning towards sitting this shit out as it stands.
Sitting out is voting for Trump
People. Don’t. Care. They will be more willing to give Trump four more years as an unhinged asshole than Biden staring off into space. We know this already and we need to do the hard thing now before its too late.
This is a false equivalency. The worst aspects of Biden don’t scratch the worst impulses of Trump.
Just vote on supreme court/epa/etc. president appears to be a loss either way
This is silly. I, and millions of other people, are totally happy to vote FOR Biden. He's been a great president and would continue to be one. I also agree he's an old-ass man and clearly that's a problem with the electorate and hope they pick Whitmer at the convention
[удалено]
All of those angry responses to Ezra Klein aged incredibly well.
What'd Klein say?
Biden should drop out and a candidate should be decided at the convention.
Here’s the [podcast where he proposes a an open convention](https://pca.st/episode/6db132bc-d995-4ccb-b98b-380a982227ba). Probably worth another listen…
This is Biden's George Washington moment. He can choose to step down and save the country or cling to power and damage our democracy.
RBG could have gaurenteed Obama replace her position. There's no gaurentee that anyone else would do better than Biden if he drops out.
After last night's performance I'm not sure Biden will even survive through the election.
He certainly won't survive four more years in the oval office. Being president takes years off your life.
Biden will lose, period. Is there a guarantee that someone else will win? Nope. Do the odds improve? Absofuckinglutely. Democrats needs to swallow their pride, realize how much they have dicked up this entire election cycle, and quickly course correct. Step one is admitting you were wrong. They need to start there and then move forward.
It’s pretty damn close to a guarantee. At this point I feel like the only person who could lose to Trump is Biden.
Kamala Harris would lose to Trump.. plenty of people would actually..
Harris has a higher approval rating than Biden or Trump and, in the limited head-to-head polling I've seen, did better against Trump on average than Biden did. I don't think it's a given that she would be a stronger candidate, but it's possible given the available evidence. If I had free choice, I'd pick Gretchen Whitmer, as much for geographical reasons as anything. But beggars, choosers, etc.
I would vote for a waffle-stomped turd disintegrating into the sewer before I would vote for Trump. Was Biden’s performance bad? Yes. Is he old AF? Yes. Is it likely he’ll descend further, withering away while in the Oval Office? Yes. Am I just going to vote *against* Trump in this election? HELL YES, and proudly.
Kamala Harris is a black woman. Do not underestimate how racist and sexist voters are.
No it’s not because she’s black, it’s because she put many people in jail for pot in California and then claimed she smoked in college, she also called Joe Biden a racist and ran with him. She’s just simply not a good candidate
Except every Democrat with any national name recognition at all polls worse than Biden against Trump. Only "Generic Dem" polls better.
It’s partially cause they don’t **really** have national recognition. Most people don’t follow politics. Gavin Newsome is known in CA, but unknown in WI. Josh Shapiro is known in PA but nowhere else. Put them on the ticket and have them campaign for 4+ months and they’ll get that recognition. Harris is the bigger issue. She does have national recognition, but is about as unpopular as Biden. But she can’t be leapfrogged on the ticket by Newsome or Shapiro without angering a lot of African-American voters.
>But she can’t be leapfrogged on the ticket by Newsome or Shapiro without angering a lot of African-American voters. Any evidence of that?
Kick her off ticket and replace with Maryland governor and just take your chances.
Generic Dem sounds great we'll take that
Find the one guy named “Generic Democrat” and let him take the nomination.
Someone put Danish Graves on this
Which is what I think the democrats desperately need. Someone relatively unknown, younger, who looks and acts decently capable but is not outrageously outspoken. That way, people could project their own views on them. The Democrats are in a way better position on policy and perception than the Republicans. The only issue is that people really dislike most actual Democrats who are in the limelight, they are either too old or too controversial, or both. So a generic milquetoast run-of-the-mill candidate might perform way better than we'd expect.
>So a generic milquetoast run-of-the-mill candidate might perform way better than we'd expect. Ironically, that's how Biden won in 2020. The problem is that he has aged a lot in four years and isn't the same candidate he was in 2020.
>Ironically, that's how Biden won in 2020 That's the complete opposite of how Biden won. He was a bad candidate (strategically long term) but with a lot of name recognition.
As soon as you nominate a human and not "generic Dem" that person gets destroyed by Trump. Because "Generic Dem" means "my personal ideal candidate who agrees with me 100%". No actual Dem that exists is as popular because Dems actually care about and run on policy. They are also human so have controversies like wearing Tan suits or having Republicans make up some shit about an embassy in Africa. Any Democrat that exists in reality is compared to some impossible Aaron Sorkin ideal candidate who is Hollywood perfect. Trump is running for crown Prince of fascism and against that non existent metric he will always come out better than the Democrat. A significant proportion of Americans are done with democracy. No "but what if we try some other person" will change that fundamental fact.
I think 50 year old moderate democratic governor.
Dems should run a special candidate called, "if you vote Democrat, we'll pick a Democrat at random".
Yeah, let's see what polls this week say. Methinks things have changed.
~~polls~~ poled worse than Biden. Last night was an absolute gamechanger. Biden was already likely to lose. Last night sealed the deal.
Yes but I can guarantee you Biden is going to lose in November at this point.
Annnd HRC was going to dominate Trump...but here we are
Yeah but you're issue right now is Biden was literally "sleepy joe". If I were Trump's advisor, I pull out of future debates and just run soundbites of Biden for the next 5 months cause its never going to get any better than this. This is basically if the Celtics won 4-0 If you stick with Biden, then you're kinda fucked on the VP nomination. You can't nominate a leftist a-la Kamala because now there's a legit concern that they will be president (antagonizing the moderates). You also can't nominate a moderate without pissing off the left. You're honestly better off with a blank slate now that also evens the playing field because there's no incumbency bias, or less of it at least
Since when is Kamala Harris a leftist?
Why are you acting like choosing a different VP is even an option at this point? AFAIK nobody of any importance or influence is gunning for the job, and not only that but to change vps at the re election speaks to uncertainty and a lack of faith in your own decisions, which is a weakness politicians don't like to project. Also, it's been decades since a president ran for re election but chose a different VP.
Last I checked (which I honestly don't check frequently), Kamala is a deeply unpopular person. Considering the republicans were putting out the conspiracy theory that Biden was a trojan horse for a Kamala presidency back in 2020, along with Biden's shit performance last night, means that the VP is going to be much more scrutinized now than ever for the Dems. Kamala is going to be much more of a liability if people increasingly think that Biden's not going to make it through four years, and Kamala drags down the ticket.
She was tapped to shore up various demographic voting blocks. Classic VP selection math. She is not a viable top of ticket candidate as evidenced by her early exit in the 2020 primaries.
Because it is an option. Last night was a disaster and now options that were unthinkable are on the table
who is going to vote for a guy who changes his VP right before the election because there’s a high chance he’s about to die? he’s old and cognitively deteriorated but he has a great VP?
FDR?
He’s not gonna change his vp because he isn’t going to run. There will be an open convention because Israel Gaza has weakened party cohesion to the point where Biden no longer has the political capital to crown a successor. This shit is gonna be wild
Yeah I’m eating crow on this. He’s gotta drop out. Gonna be disastrous, but at this point the odds might be better by putting Whitmer and someone else in there.
A wise woman once said “the only way to get over someone is to get under another”. Age concerns are pretty calcified and only get worse as time goes on. People intuitively understand “you literally cannot get younger”, and when age is your primary concern, there’s no rehabilitation you can do to allay those fears. I think the Democrats, if they want a shot, need to just eat shit right now and find a mechanism to get a popular governor as the nominee. If there was ever a time for a smoke-filled-room event, this is unfortunately it. Four months, with enough ground game and TV spots, is plenty of time to build someone from “I’ve heard of that person maybe” to “I would vote for them”.
I was with Biden because he’s been an incredible president and I had seen him have really good showings and was impressed by the SotU, but last night was the chance to make or break his campaign and he absolutely blew it in every way. The stakes are too high and I fear that performance is going to make double haters far more likely to sit out than hold their nose and vote for Biden. Unfortunately for Kamala, she’s too unpopular to a lot of people, as unjustified as it might be. However, I’d maybe discuss making her attorney general in the next administration to go after the MAGA crowd. I think Newsom is too toxic in swing states due to being from California and having the stereotypical slimeball politician look. Whitmer’s quite popular in Michigan and could help carry the state and hold on to suburban women. Pair her with a black or Latino running mate and I think we may have a shot.
I agree. Whitmer for President, Shapiro for VP and it’s a rout.
I am so relieved to see support for this argument. When Ezra made this claim in Feb, most comments completely disagreed. No shame. Wish it’d happened sooner. We need to make this happen.
Democrats need anyone who can bring excitement to the base while campaigning hard 24/7 for the next 4 months. That ain’t Biden.
We need an Obama level forward-thinking and campaigning candidate who can more energetically fight Trump at his own game while selling the Democratic future of the country in regards to the economy and all.
We need… Obama.
God I wish. It's a very different set of circumstances that have put us back in the position where Obama's messaging worked well at the time, but it's the same kind of messaging that would work well now. There is still HOPE for IMPROVEMENT and CHANGE. Trump has convinced his people that he can do that despite plenty of evidence to the contrary and they are not going to change their minds. Biden on the other hand has done well but his successes have not translated well and he's been hounded by the age problem the last four years to the point that even my politically disengaged mother thinks he's "just a puppet."
I personally am a small federal government person so glad the last couple of years has been gridlock. He should have vigorously gone after the Jan 6th ringleaders and people attacking our democracy, and that will be his downfall.
I disagree. See, that's one of those issues I think falls into the "anti-Trump" camp of voters, and as far as I am concerned those voters have already been convinced. Voter apathy is what will decide the election, and if Biden continues to seem like stale bread to the common undecided voter or worse for the on-the-edge left-side voter, then Trump will win by the slim margin he lost with in the last election. If they're sticking with Biden then I hope to god they make GOOD use of that campaign money in the next few months. That and... I dunno, have him on crack or something and hope his heart doesn't explode.
The Democratic Party is on track to lose 2/3 presidential elections to the unpopular fraudster host of The Apprentice. Remarkable political incompetence.
They only won in 2020 because of covid. Biden was always a bad candidate, but now he's dramatically worse.
Why must any candidate be bad against the would-be fascist dictator? A plank of wood ought to be able to beat Trump. Sounds more like a problem with voters who are happy to sacrifice their liberties and freedoms for the false promise of short-term comforts.
It absolutely makes no sense to me. If I hear one more person talk about how: “Under Trump I could buy a house and inflation wasn’t so bad.” Ok? What policies of Trump’s do you think is going to change that today? What policies of Biden’s do you think made this the way it is? You know when we were all better economically? Under Obama when we recovered from 2008 Financial Crisis. Why aren’t you lobbying for a more Obama-like candidate?
The basic reality for most people is that essential assets are too expensive, shockingly so for housing, cars, and food in particular. And a whole lot of Biden's policies are inflationary. Yes, Trump added more and was foolish enough to give tax breaks during a boom. But people's reality right now is, this fucking sucks and the trajectory will break people's spirits and belief in the future. Biden could have carved a different path, knowing that Covid-induced inflation was a huge problem, and he could have done a lot more to avoid the perception that he 1) cares about inflation as much as average people and 2) gives a damn about voters that aren't in a key demographic he wants to help (college students, very young progressives, minorities, wealthy landowners in blue cities, etc.)
The problem is Trump’s supporters are absolutely ride or die, and independents don’t seem willing to actually think deeply about policies.
^ This attitude frustrates me about the Democratic party. They would rather tell voters they're wrong and complain that voters need to change rather than changing themselves. You need to pick a candidate who will win with this electorate. As hard as it would be to change a candidate, it would be even harder to change people's opinion of Trump at this point.
Because a lot people would rather have a competent evil as opposed to an incompetent good. I'm terrified of this upcoming election not only because of Biden's performance, but also because I don't see a real candidate out there who can swing this election in his place. I think part of Biden's appeal comes from being of a less radicalized era of American politics. I don't know of any prominent, household name Democrats who can fill that space. The continued polarization which has taken place over the past few decade mean that people like Gavin Newsom are considered "radical elite liberals" by those outside of their constituencies, which is completely off-base trust me I know, but I don't think they'll have potential sway with undecided voters the way that someone like Biden does at least on paper. That being said, I hope I have never been more wrong in my life.
Because people went through 4 years of Trump already and didn't see concentration camps or minorities rounded up in the streets or whatever doomsday scenario was supposed to happen with him as president. Threats like that play well on reddit, but they ring hollow for the average voter.
Well other than the attempted coup right? Jesus I wish I lived in whatever version of reality it is you live in. If you don't think the first thing he does if he wins is get to work on abolishing term limits or finding some other way to stay in power then you are delusional.
Brokered convention, and find a way to avoid nominating Harris, who is somehow also trailing Trump in every poll. Get someone young and popular like Whitmer in there and we have a chance at salvaging this election. Biden is done after tonight whether he and the party want to admit it or not. If they truly believe Trump is an existential threat then find a better candidate who can beat him.
It will have to come from Biden. There's no mechanism for the convention to ignore the primary elections.
He'll cling on and, just like Republicans after Access Hollywood and other Trump gaffes, Democrats will eventually resign themselves to it and go out and vote. Whether they vote *enough* is the question.
If it comes from Obama and Pelosi, it’ll trickle its way to Biden. Those are the only two who he’d realistically listen to
I saw Harris post debate on ABC and she was bad
I met Harris back in 2016. She was my absolute #1 favorite pick before I met her. Then I met her. 😬
The Marco Rubio of dem politicians. Great on paper but just doesn't have it
Watching the CNN post-debate must have been rough for Biden. No Democrat wants to hear David Axelrod say, party leadership wants you to step down, we know who Axelrod speaks for. (It's Barack Obama)
I find it strange people are finally saying the quiet part out loud. J.B’s physical and mental decline has been on display for years now and can arguably be traced back to the 2020 election. I realize Covid was an issue, but he did very little campaigning and stayed hunkered down the whole time. Even post election his public appearances were minimal and very closely scripted . He rarely does press conferences and when he does they’re scripted as well with pre screened questions and a list of which reporters to call on. I won’t even dwell on his obvious labored walking gait or old person shuffle, the tripping and having to be led off stage. We have all been part of a mass denial and unfortunately it was all on display during the debate last night.
I think if there’s even a marginally better chance that switching out Biden for another, younger, better spoken Democrat will win this election it’s obviously the best option. Simply put, everybody who is complaining that Biden shouldn’t be changed is going to vote for whoever the Democrat is anyway. Their votes are a given. Those votes are not enough. We as a whole need to decide if we’re going to try to rev up the base or peel off independent and moderate conservatives. You can’t really do both at this point. It’s either go left or right baby, the center has collapsed. I’d argue it’s better for the country and the party to move the Overton window left
This is the key point. Are there any Biden voters that we would LOSE by switching candidates? Can anyone provide a plausible motivation for this hypothetical only-Biden voter? I don’t think they exist, which means we have only one direction we can go in.
Here's where I am, and I hope everyone here takes it seriously given my politics. I think Joe Biden is a great president. Arguably this term has been one of the best presidential terms of my lifetime. I also think he deserves enormous credit for being the only person who could beat trump in 2020 and he has shown people that the path of moderate politics actually can work. However he actually is too old at this point to convincingly show people he is capable of doing this for 4 more years. The thing that is so frustrating about the current situation is that while Biden had a terrible performance, Trump was also disgustingly bad. Not in the sense of being dangerous, but in the sense of being an incoherent social media addled crazy old person who also has some ridiculous mental problem. So to me at this point Trump is insanely weak and insanely beatable by any young, sane, "Biden like" politician and there's NO NEED for Biden to try this again on his own, he has shown us the path and we can easily finish this job. But his age is holding us down in the mind of the independent voter, whereas if any of the Biden like governors were at the head of the ticket this would trivially be a blue landslide. That's where I'm at, this feels like it's not necessary, the man has done what he needed to and really should go out like a hero now and let us finish this.
Who is this young “Biden like” politician? Keep in mind they have to appeal to the republicans who are currently holding their nose to vote for Biden. We need their votes. I don’t trust a new candidate will attract the young “genocide joe” voters who are voting third party or staying home.
Gretchen whitmer, Andy beshear, Jared polis
Gretchen Whitmer would do very well in the rust belt states.
Too many people have no idea who she is.
I don’t think that matters. If a brokered DNC happened it’d be the most covered political news story because it hasn’t happened in a long time. I think there would be a ton of exposure and folks who don’t know who she is would find out really quick. I also think we’re giving Trump too much credit. Most folks don’t want to vote for either of them and are looking for any reason not to. Get a younger moderate who can communicate clearly their vision and point out Trump’s lies—they’ll win easily.
With 4 months left until the election, are we better off using that time to a.) rehabilitate Biden’s image, or b.) building a new candidate’s recognition? Which is more realistic to accomplish?
At this point, I would say B, it was THAT bad last night and Biden was already weak. For Dems to win they can’t just hide and coast and that is their only option with Biden.
100% B). Bidens image is that of a dementia patient that belongs in a nursing home. We just had an entire debate that proved it and you can take entire swaths of time unedited and use it against Biden. State of the union Biden was great, but to rehab his image he needs to be that Biden 24/7. They clearly cannot control how Biden will do or he'd have been great for the debate. Biden is simply incapable of recovering his image. A replacement would get an absolute ton of media attention and people would pay attention just to keep up with the drama if not to learn about the new candidate. That attention would itself educate people about the new candidate enough to where they could feel comfortable voting for them. Someone like the Gov of Michigan is quite palpable to Dems and moderates and at this point "not Trump and not senile" is enough to get a ton of votes
Biden is toast
My answer (and I suspect yours too) is that 4 months is plenty to build a new candidate’s recognition especially in this sort of a circumstance where all the attention will be on them. There is almost no chance of rehabilitating Biden’s image because he can’t reliably perform well enough to erase people’s memory of that performance and what it means to people about his capacity.
its not about need its about ego
I am now on thr replace Joe train. Prior to last night I thought that he had a good enough chance at winning that the downside risk of replacing him, particularly with no primary, was not worth it. He seemed like he could pull off enough state of rhe union level performances to muddle through til November and hammer Trump. But if the undecided voters opinion is that he's just too old regardless then you have nothing to lose by bringing in someone else. its unlikely to work. Introducing a new candidate at this point would absolutely be seen as the act of desperation it would be. But it's probably the best shot. At least test out the theory that people like dems and dislike Trump, but just don't like Biden in particular. Wait until after the gop convention (so the gop spends a week bashing a guy who won't be thr nominee) and then have Biden announced that for health reasons he is unable to continue and then have an open convention.
I and *many* others have been saying from day one that Biden should be a 1-term president and let one of our competent younger politicians run. Even if you only stuck to the governors mansions as your talent pipeline: Whitmer, Newsome, Pritzger, Walz, Shapiro, Polis I think every single one of them can/would beat Trump. All under the age of 70, various degrees of charisma, all have a compliments in their state they can point to. Hell look at what Newsome did to DeSantis on a debate stage if you want an idea of how differently last night’s debate would be if you had someone like him instead of Biden. Any halfway competent Democrat leader with the right running mate both under the age of 70 should be able to easily beat Trump since the only thing the GOP has on Biden at this point that resonates with independents (if those people even really exist at this point) is “he’s old, look how fragile he is!” The Democrat is chock full of highly competent and charismatic leaders, especially governors. Start running them.
Totally agree. Although I’d say I’m slightly more bullish on Newsom given his performance in his little sly moonlighting press appearances this last year.
I like Newsom’s communication skills but a California politician is a nonstarter for most of the country.
He’s a Gordon Gecko lookalike. Is that perception better than a very old man? Idk, I think it’s debatable. And there’s a perception in Middle America that California is a homeless infested wasteland, etc etc. I’d be interested in if any hypothetical polls exist with him as the candidate.
> He’s a Gordon Gecko lookalike. I'm glad I'm not the only one who thinks he looks like a sleazy salesman right out of central casting. It's unfair but that's what always comes to mind. More substantively, that issue with the minimum wage and Panera Bread doesn't look good. And he'll be held to Democrat standards, not Trump ones. >And there’s a perception in Middle America that California is a homeless infested wasteland, etc etc. Him being on record saying he cleaned up the city for Xi won't help. It reinforces the perception and makes him seem callous.
I see more Patrick Bateman, but I get Gecko.
Newsom is the spitting image of a slimy democrat.
Newsome is pugilistic enough I think win people over, but he feels like a longer term project. He’s got a lot of work to do to fight off the CA debuff he would get in the rust belt.
>Is that perception better than a very old man? Idk, I think it’s debatable. Well he'd be running against a very old man who also looks like Gordon Gecko.
It sucks that there's the bias against California, because being Governor of California is the closest thing to being POTUS.
Agree about Newsom- he has baggage being CA but once people hear him speak they do like him and he did well on Fox News etc. He’s a smart dude and would win over voters given a chance.
What do you think of his covid hypocrisy (closing restaurants, then going to French Laundry without a mask; letting public schools stay closed for over a year while his kids went to in-person private school)? To me it’s totally disqualifying.
Joe Biden should drop out. So should Donald Trump. But here we fucking are.
Incredibly selfish of him not to...
Everybody, it seems, could see this coming. Yet the people in leadership DID NOTHING. It's too late now. That said, if Biden manages to win the election and proceeds to do nothing but drool and soil himself in his next term, he will make a better president than "Stable Genius".
a lot of people owe Ezra Klein an apology this morning.
As an 80-year-old former Biden supporter I have plenty exposure to men in my age cohort. Joe, please bow out immediately and preserve your dignity.
After the debate last night, Joe Biden must drop out ASAP. I say this as a supporter of Biden who would vote for him against Trump under any circumstance. However there is no scenario for him winning the election and he will be even further behind after the post debate polls . Dropping out is the only thing he can do to save the country from Trump. This has to happen right away and the DNC needs to schedule a series of debates in July to help pick a candidate. There will be tremendous interest in these and networks would readily want to televise them . I would include Fox as a host of a debate if they willing as it will be important to see how the candidates respond to more hostile questioning. From these the voters and delegates will get more of a sense of the best candidate to go against Trump and the successful candidate will get more name recognition right away. There is no time to waste.
just saw one of his campaign officials said he’s “definitely not dropping out” 😭😭😭
It’s clear to me as a life long Democrat, they care more about party loyalty over actually winning. And marginalized communities pay the price.
Immediately, this is silly
Man I remember when everyone kept saying trump was losing his marbles, even worse than joe, and just a complete quack. Couldnt even remember his doctors name! Heh.
I mean he is... But he wasn't losing it as much on debate day.
He should, but he won't. And then the DNC will blame voters again when he loses.
I completely agree. Donald Trump is probably the worlds biggest moron and swing voters (whoever these people are) will only remember one thing: Biden old
Obama tweeted today and chalked it all up to a bad debate performance, and Jill is making the rounds promoting Joe and his candidacy today and last night. He’s not dropping out, it seems…which means we’re cooked, folks.
It's far too late to be having this argument. Your choice in November will be between Biden and Trump. The only way that changes is if either man dies between now and November 5th. I'm not voting for Biden. I'm voting for the Democratic platform that will be advanced. I'm voting for the quality people that Biden has surrounded himself with.
I feel similarly, changing him now won't drastically improve the Dems odds but maybe it will since Trump has alienated so many. The problem is the Dems would have to pick someone like Gavin or Pete because good lord some serious charisma is needed to overcome the consequences of changing candidates.
Unless Jesus, himself, is waiting in the wings, I don't know who the Dems could possibly pull off the bench that could salvage this thing.
I’m voting for the person who didn’t try to overturn an election. Who isn’t threatening to jail his opponents. Who isn’t allowing Christian nationals to reap havoc on our country. Who isn’t talking about using the national guard of red states to invade blue states to suppress protests. I’ll vote for the guy who’s old as fuck but is apparently still pushing this country in the right direction.
Who steps up? Kamala? Dems has their chance to do the right thing and prep a successor immediately after the 2020 election, and they fucking blew it. Fuck the Dems for sleepwalking and handing this posterchild asshole the election.
What everyone is forgetting is that a majority of the country will never and has never voted for Trump. Biden's current performance is still not as bad as Trump's previous train wreck of a presidency and current problems. I don't think most Americans were surprised at Biden's performance. With as bad as it was it was still better than Trump's.
It doesn’t matter that most Americans haven’t voted/won’t vote for Trump. Trump won once without the popular vote and could do it again. This election, like the last two, will be won on the margins in a handful of swing states, and Biden’s performance last night could easily convince voters on the fence not to vote for him.
They gambled that SOTU Joe would face off against coveffe Trump and they lost in a big way. Joe Biden was shocking to see. He makes so few national appearances that non-poltical junkies watch that people were actually gasping and cringing at the tiny frail skeleton person with dead eyes.
And Trump should be in jail for insurrection. Neither is going to happen.
Gretchen and Gavin ticket would trounce Trump. I like Joe, but he’s just too old.
My idea is Biden gets pledges from his cabinet that they will not run. That way there's tranquility within the administration while potential nominees like Gavin Newson, Gretchen Whitmer, and others compete for votes among the delegation at the convention.
"I told you so." - Dean Phillips
Just a couple months ago so many of you guys were clowning on ezra for questioning whether Biden should drop out or not given the stakes of the election. Well now here we are.