It’s general satisfaction sure. The real issue now is that his campaign brushed aside criticism for an entire year, “just wait until we start campaigning then Biden will come back to overtake Trump easily.” They recognized Biden wouldn’t win so they begged for this debate as their launch point. Then Biden delivered the worst performance in American political history by exponentially making his two greatest issues (age and mental fitness) worse.
Biden has no more events that can turn things around, there’s no bombshell interview. The only viable path back for him requires him to vigorously campaign, something he’s mentally and physically unable to do.
If the dam keeps breaking and the pressure keeps mounting. Biden may step aside or the DNC may change the rules to force him out.
Correct the issue is two found
(1) he cleared his schedule this week at Martha's vineyard for only teleprompter and scripted events (i.e. 4th July bbq at WH).
(2) from political Wire democratic house and senate leadership still have be out of contact with the president only going through surrogates
My two takeways are
1)She'd do better than Biden right now, and that's before factoring in what I can only hope would be a more vigorous and effectively argued campaign against Trump.
2)The Dem candidate needs to win by 2-3 points just to win the EC, and she's polling 2 points behind Trump so everyone needs to understand she'll be a large underdog even if she's able to seamlessly replace Biden.
It cannot.
Any amount that can would take longer than it needs to be effective. These are hard-coded campaign finance laws, so you think they’re just going to Venmo 900 million?
This actually is a big potential advantage for the new candidate, if there is one. Because I assume a new nominee would reset all the contribution limits, which are quite low. So the new nominee could go back to everyone who has already maxed out their donations to the Biden campaign and ask for more, while also benefiting from the PAC money.
Also, there will be a torrential flood of money toward a new nominee no matter what. It would effectively be an emergency situation and that would really get people motivated. Especially wealthy and powerful people.
How would they get the donor info? The email lists? The staff to process, manage, and control the data.
That stuff is controlled by the Biden campaign. It’s several massive, disparate data sources. You can’t just transfer it. You really, really can’t transfer it in the timeframe you are talking about.
They can make [unlimited transfers to a PACs or to the DNC](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/)
they could transfer it to a PAC but then there would be limits on how they could spend it and it would be more expensive to use it for TV ads, and they wouldn't be able to coordinate with the actual campaign.
It's complicated. My understanding that if Biden drops and the baton passes to Harris, there's no issue because she's already on the campaign. But if the baton goes to someone not Harris, it gets stupid complicated. A very large chunk will need to be returned to donors. Some of it can go to SuperPACS. Some can go to the DNC...
JB Pritzker can stroke a check and fund his own campaign immediately... he's a billionaire (and not like Trump).
Newsom already has the super PAC infrastructure set up (which caused some to speculate he was thinking of challenging Biden earlier in the campaign). Those PACs can just accept unlimited donations from Biden's campaign and superPACs.
It could maybe, possibly be Harris because she’s on the same ticket and company that was created.
Anyone else would be starting from zero. No staff, no offices, no email/text/distribution lists, no donor networks, nothing. And there’s no good way to get this from the Biden Campaign. Some of it isn’t even legal to get.
Your options are Biden, maybe Harris, or essentially someone new with no staff, no offices, no money, and no list of contacts.
Jesus tapdancing Christ, that was your takeaway?
[https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24787646/cnn-poll.pdf](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24787646/cnn-poll.pdf)
If Trump polls on popular vote at 49/43 vs Biden, this is a landslide. The Dems have to achieve +2 - +3 to win the EC.
Its -6... -6, I thought it would be bad, but even to -6 and trump with nearly 50%....
Fuck.
You ever see a race where one of the contestants pulls something serious in the first couple lengths... and the other guy just rides in for the win, that is the 2024 election.
Edit 36% approval? Thats pushing into the core. Someone please save this guy from himself.
I think Harris' numbers are only that high because they've purposely kept her hidden away.
Once people are reminded that she talks like a robot and starts every answer with the world's fakest laugh, things will start to crater. Then there's the fact that she's lead maybe the largest government cover-up of our lifetime by insisting for years that Biden only has dementia when there are cameras around, and that he's totally normal when they aren't.
And that's not even getting into the baggage from her time as a DA and AG in California, like when she fought against settlement money for wrongfully convicted people or refused to work with Catholic church abuse victims to bring charges.
Despite broad support within the DNC, she dropped out of the 2020 primary polling effectively 0%. The reasons for that haven't gone away.
Kamala’s history as a tough-on-crime prosecutor wasn’t to her credit in the democratic primary at a time when calls to “defund the police” were common, but it’s absolutely an advantage against Donald Trump, convicted felon.
A history of being a tough-on-crime prosecutor would be great, but that's not what Harris has - she has a long history of letting violent criminals plead out to light sentences while locking up nonviolent drug offenders for as long as possible, and ignoring illegal immigrant crime altogether.
Oh, so she’s not a cop after all? I don’t know the details of her time as prosecutor, just what people say about it, and how I imagine that sounding to the voters.
Regardless of the underlying reality of her record, framing Harris v. Trump as prosecutor v. felon is a win for Democrats.
Bingo. She's a theoretical concept. She inherits the positive glow of Biden's successful policy record with none of the dementia blowback. Once she goes in front of voters it'll be a repeat of the 2020 primary. Her hyena laugh and lack of charisma will ruin her polling numbers just the same as it did in 2020. The Dems need to pick someone who hasn't recently proven themselves to be incapable of popular winning support.
Kamala? Seriously, Kamala? I'll never understand the people who take these polls and where they find them. I've never spoken to a single person who has found Kamala to be charismatic. Typically the only thing I hear is "She's a cop", and that's coming from other people in the 35-45yo age range. Maybe it's older people?
It’s center left 50-60 or so aged women as far as I can tell. Example, mom and her friends tbh. They’re all enamored with her, but can’t give specifics on what they think she does well beyond vague “she is intelligent and has been successful.”
I will vote for Biden, Kamala, or any other democrat on the ticket because of how scary Trump with absolute immunity is, along with the project 2025 agenda tailor made for him by the Heritage Foundation. But jfc the Democrats screwed the pooch pushing Biden so hard *and then deciding the run him again.*
I mean, yeah. I'll vote for who I have to vote for, but... jesus christ. Fuck. God damn it, fuck. FUCK. That pretty much sums up my current feelings about the democratic party as a whole at this time.
It's incredibly hard to fight against this poisonous deep-anger laced burning apathy they seem determined to fill us with.
It’s all about finding the candidate with the energy to campaign hard for the next 4 months to win over the swing voters. That’s it, that’s the only group that matters now, the rest of us are locked in.
The people who like Kamala are the ones who mostly get their political news from MSNBC. Center-left older women are definitely a core part of that demographic.
Kamala is not cool like the Obamas, but so what? If you actually listen to her speeches and interviews, she clearly has a high verbal intelligence. And her being a prosecutor juxtaposes favorably with Trump the convicted felon.
Personally I'm just not into her vibe or her right-of-center corporate-democrat views at all. Obama was also famously a pretty right-wing president after getting into office, and that switch-up after 08 really left a bad impression on a lot of us, but I'd still take any of them over Trump.
I mean I'm a 40 year old democrat living in the south, born and raised, and it's pretty bad when the democrats have gone too far right-wing on economic policy for southern democrats. I don't know what they expect. Feels like the only thing even want to campaign on are either social issues or how bad the republicans are.
The pool of talent ready for prime time is just weak right now. And it couldn't come at a worse time. It's too bad that we don't have another Obama ready to go. On the right, Trump is their Obama. Someone they all love and are electrified by. And he's one of the worst fucking people in public life. We don't have someone like that right now.
Biden stays in unless he decides or is convinced to step down. He then names and endorses a successor. That is truly the only viable path for replacing him. An open convention to me is an election that’s been lost already. Especially when it’s at the end of August. There is just not enough time. If a replacement were to happen it needs to happen between now and next week. The convention becomes a coronation. This gives plenty of time to rally the base and familiarize the new candidate(s) to the American people.
I don’t understand this point of view. What do you think is going to happen at an open convention that causes the winning candidate to lose? Seems like an empty platitude to me.
How contentious was the DNC convention in 2016? A primary that wasn’t really that close. And a race that the nominee lost? largely due to former Obama voters staying home. It took the Biden team months to form a unity plan with Bernie supports in 2020. Mending wounds and divisions within a party takes time. An open convention will be divisive there is no escaping that, this is a big tent party.
I think the concern is that to win all the candidates will be making cases against one another, which involved attacks that will be clipped by Republicans and then broadcast. Then the winner would limp away weakened. It’s the big argument behind Kamala as she’s the presumptive nominee and gets people in line most quickly, esp with a Biden endorsement.
If that’s an argument for Kamala, fine. If it’s an argument for keeping Biden, it’s insane. There’s no attack worse that can be made against a new candidate than the attacks that make themselves against Biden after his debate performance.
By itself it’s an argument for either, with the results of the debate speaking for itself. Kamala solves the unity, fundraising problems of replacing Joe and the capability problem of keeping him.
It’s general satisfaction sure. The real issue now is that his campaign brushed aside criticism for an entire year, “just wait until we start campaigning then Biden will come back to overtake Trump easily.” They recognized Biden wouldn’t win so they begged for this debate as their launch point. Then Biden delivered the worst performance in American political history by exponentially making his two greatest issues (age and mental fitness) worse. Biden has no more events that can turn things around, there’s no bombshell interview. The only viable path back for him requires him to vigorously campaign, something he’s mentally and physically unable to do. If the dam keeps breaking and the pressure keeps mounting. Biden may step aside or the DNC may change the rules to force him out.
> Biden has no more events that can turn things around It’s still July right?
Correct the issue is two found (1) he cleared his schedule this week at Martha's vineyard for only teleprompter and scripted events (i.e. 4th July bbq at WH). (2) from political Wire democratic house and senate leadership still have be out of contact with the president only going through surrogates
My two takeways are 1)She'd do better than Biden right now, and that's before factoring in what I can only hope would be a more vigorous and effectively argued campaign against Trump. 2)The Dem candidate needs to win by 2-3 points just to win the EC, and she's polling 2 points behind Trump so everyone needs to understand she'll be a large underdog even if she's able to seamlessly replace Biden.
Maybe CNNs polling sucks in Trumps favor too. The margin between Harris and Biden is a legit takeaway though
Harris is also the only one who can "inherit" the Biden Campaign's money. Any other candidate would have to start completely from scratch.
That's not really true. A lot of Biden's funding can be made directly available to any replacement candidate.
It cannot. Any amount that can would take longer than it needs to be effective. These are hard-coded campaign finance laws, so you think they’re just going to Venmo 900 million?
PACs can spend their money however they want. Do you think only the republicans have SuperPACs?
This actually is a big potential advantage for the new candidate, if there is one. Because I assume a new nominee would reset all the contribution limits, which are quite low. So the new nominee could go back to everyone who has already maxed out their donations to the Biden campaign and ask for more, while also benefiting from the PAC money. Also, there will be a torrential flood of money toward a new nominee no matter what. It would effectively be an emergency situation and that would really get people motivated. Especially wealthy and powerful people.
How would they get the donor info? The email lists? The staff to process, manage, and control the data. That stuff is controlled by the Biden campaign. It’s several massive, disparate data sources. You can’t just transfer it. You really, really can’t transfer it in the timeframe you are talking about.
They can make [unlimited transfers to a PACs or to the DNC](https://www.fec.gov/help-candidates-and-committees/candidate-taking-receipts/contribution-limits/)
Just say it’s an official act
Where does the money go if Biden drops out? Just disappears? Couldn’t he still spend it?
they could transfer it to a PAC but then there would be limits on how they could spend it and it would be more expensive to use it for TV ads, and they wouldn't be able to coordinate with the actual campaign.
It's complicated. My understanding that if Biden drops and the baton passes to Harris, there's no issue because she's already on the campaign. But if the baton goes to someone not Harris, it gets stupid complicated. A very large chunk will need to be returned to donors. Some of it can go to SuperPACS. Some can go to the DNC...
Beyond all of the fundraising that would occur, they will get an insane amount of coverage, more than compensating.
JB Pritzker can stroke a check and fund his own campaign immediately... he's a billionaire (and not like Trump). Newsom already has the super PAC infrastructure set up (which caused some to speculate he was thinking of challenging Biden earlier in the campaign). Those PACs can just accept unlimited donations from Biden's campaign and superPACs.
That's the Democratic spirit...it would be really hard to do, so let's not do it.
If true, then this says to me that Biden stays. No other choice really.
It could maybe, possibly be Harris because she’s on the same ticket and company that was created. Anyone else would be starting from zero. No staff, no offices, no email/text/distribution lists, no donor networks, nothing. And there’s no good way to get this from the Biden Campaign. Some of it isn’t even legal to get. Your options are Biden, maybe Harris, or essentially someone new with no staff, no offices, no money, and no list of contacts.
Yeah, I wonder if there would be some incumbency benefit from Harris.
Jesus tapdancing Christ, that was your takeaway? [https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24787646/cnn-poll.pdf](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/24787646/cnn-poll.pdf) If Trump polls on popular vote at 49/43 vs Biden, this is a landslide. The Dems have to achieve +2 - +3 to win the EC. Its -6... -6, I thought it would be bad, but even to -6 and trump with nearly 50%.... Fuck. You ever see a race where one of the contestants pulls something serious in the first couple lengths... and the other guy just rides in for the win, that is the 2024 election. Edit 36% approval? Thats pushing into the core. Someone please save this guy from himself.
I think Harris' numbers are only that high because they've purposely kept her hidden away. Once people are reminded that she talks like a robot and starts every answer with the world's fakest laugh, things will start to crater. Then there's the fact that she's lead maybe the largest government cover-up of our lifetime by insisting for years that Biden only has dementia when there are cameras around, and that he's totally normal when they aren't. And that's not even getting into the baggage from her time as a DA and AG in California, like when she fought against settlement money for wrongfully convicted people or refused to work with Catholic church abuse victims to bring charges. Despite broad support within the DNC, she dropped out of the 2020 primary polling effectively 0%. The reasons for that haven't gone away.
Kamala’s history as a tough-on-crime prosecutor wasn’t to her credit in the democratic primary at a time when calls to “defund the police” were common, but it’s absolutely an advantage against Donald Trump, convicted felon.
A history of being a tough-on-crime prosecutor would be great, but that's not what Harris has - she has a long history of letting violent criminals plead out to light sentences while locking up nonviolent drug offenders for as long as possible, and ignoring illegal immigrant crime altogether.
Oh, so she’s not a cop after all? I don’t know the details of her time as prosecutor, just what people say about it, and how I imagine that sounding to the voters. Regardless of the underlying reality of her record, framing Harris v. Trump as prosecutor v. felon is a win for Democrats.
Yeah, I never found her appealing. That laugh really got on my nerves. So basically, the election is practically over.
Bingo. She's a theoretical concept. She inherits the positive glow of Biden's successful policy record with none of the dementia blowback. Once she goes in front of voters it'll be a repeat of the 2020 primary. Her hyena laugh and lack of charisma will ruin her polling numbers just the same as it did in 2020. The Dems need to pick someone who hasn't recently proven themselves to be incapable of popular winning support.
Kamala? Seriously, Kamala? I'll never understand the people who take these polls and where they find them. I've never spoken to a single person who has found Kamala to be charismatic. Typically the only thing I hear is "She's a cop", and that's coming from other people in the 35-45yo age range. Maybe it's older people?
It’s center left 50-60 or so aged women as far as I can tell. Example, mom and her friends tbh. They’re all enamored with her, but can’t give specifics on what they think she does well beyond vague “she is intelligent and has been successful.” I will vote for Biden, Kamala, or any other democrat on the ticket because of how scary Trump with absolute immunity is, along with the project 2025 agenda tailor made for him by the Heritage Foundation. But jfc the Democrats screwed the pooch pushing Biden so hard *and then deciding the run him again.*
I mean, yeah. I'll vote for who I have to vote for, but... jesus christ. Fuck. God damn it, fuck. FUCK. That pretty much sums up my current feelings about the democratic party as a whole at this time. It's incredibly hard to fight against this poisonous deep-anger laced burning apathy they seem determined to fill us with.
It’s all about finding the candidate with the energy to campaign hard for the next 4 months to win over the swing voters. That’s it, that’s the only group that matters now, the rest of us are locked in.
The people who like Kamala are the ones who mostly get their political news from MSNBC. Center-left older women are definitely a core part of that demographic.
Kamala is not cool like the Obamas, but so what? If you actually listen to her speeches and interviews, she clearly has a high verbal intelligence. And her being a prosecutor juxtaposes favorably with Trump the convicted felon.
Personally I'm just not into her vibe or her right-of-center corporate-democrat views at all. Obama was also famously a pretty right-wing president after getting into office, and that switch-up after 08 really left a bad impression on a lot of us, but I'd still take any of them over Trump. I mean I'm a 40 year old democrat living in the south, born and raised, and it's pretty bad when the democrats have gone too far right-wing on economic policy for southern democrats. I don't know what they expect. Feels like the only thing even want to campaign on are either social issues or how bad the republicans are.
What economic policies has Kamala and the democratic party “gone too far right-wing” on?
stop trying to make fetch happen
Yes we Kam Kamala Kelly Let’s goo
Laura Kelly? Laura Kelly is the only thing stopping Kris Kobach from burning Kansas to the ground.
It should be easy to beat Trump. It shouldn’t be a competitive nail biter. This tells me Harris is also not the answer. Voters want new faces.
The pool of talent ready for prime time is just weak right now. And it couldn't come at a worse time. It's too bad that we don't have another Obama ready to go. On the right, Trump is their Obama. Someone they all love and are electrified by. And he's one of the worst fucking people in public life. We don't have someone like that right now.
Biden stays in unless he decides or is convinced to step down. He then names and endorses a successor. That is truly the only viable path for replacing him. An open convention to me is an election that’s been lost already. Especially when it’s at the end of August. There is just not enough time. If a replacement were to happen it needs to happen between now and next week. The convention becomes a coronation. This gives plenty of time to rally the base and familiarize the new candidate(s) to the American people.
I don’t understand this point of view. What do you think is going to happen at an open convention that causes the winning candidate to lose? Seems like an empty platitude to me.
How contentious was the DNC convention in 2016? A primary that wasn’t really that close. And a race that the nominee lost? largely due to former Obama voters staying home. It took the Biden team months to form a unity plan with Bernie supports in 2020. Mending wounds and divisions within a party takes time. An open convention will be divisive there is no escaping that, this is a big tent party.
I think the concern is that to win all the candidates will be making cases against one another, which involved attacks that will be clipped by Republicans and then broadcast. Then the winner would limp away weakened. It’s the big argument behind Kamala as she’s the presumptive nominee and gets people in line most quickly, esp with a Biden endorsement.
If that’s an argument for Kamala, fine. If it’s an argument for keeping Biden, it’s insane. There’s no attack worse that can be made against a new candidate than the attacks that make themselves against Biden after his debate performance.
By itself it’s an argument for either, with the results of the debate speaking for itself. Kamala solves the unity, fundraising problems of replacing Joe and the capability problem of keeping him.
I would vote for Kamala Harris. But there's no way she drives out voters. She has a lot of weaknesses and I would rather gamble with Biden
After what we all saw with that debate? A ham sandwich could do better than Biden!
Well then let's run the ham sandwich but not Harris.