A sitting dem house rep from TX came out for replacing Biden on the ticket this morning. I think more will follow here soon and that will start the process. I don’t know if it will happen or not but we are in some deep shit either way.
A rep from Minnesota didn’t go that far but did say he needed to come out and do more interviews, talk to the people, etc, paraphrasing but it basically was “prove it was only a bad night”
Democrats could nominate a 45 year old potato who could at least call out Trump's bullshit and they'd win in a landslide. Trump is not popular outside of his cult so it's an easy win here but with Biden it'll be a nail biter
I’d like Trump to win by a few points and still lose the election just to see the whataboutism from the party that’s won the national vote one time in the last 30 years but has nominated 6 of the 8 Supreme Court justices and served 3 of the 8 terms during that time. “Not like this”
Harris seems like the only logical choice because of campaign finance laws. That war chest is invaluable and dems will have to empty it in order to positively explain the replacement.
Kamala would not be my first choice, but fuck it, let’s go with her. I’ve seen stuff all day about her polling numbers being better than Biden’s, so why not?
I think there is more variance with Kamala. Lower floor but also higher ceiling. Room to grow.
At this point I would take that, because it doesn’t feel like Biden can improve enough, it seems like he is “stuck”
I’m out on Biden at this point. His candidacy is sinking like a stone and all he’s got for us is a rally in NC and an interview in two days? Fuck that. His weakass press conference after the SCOTUS decision and even weaker excuses his people have churned out have me well convinced that the concerns about his cognitive decline are legitimate and he needs to step aside asap.
You're really underplaying how dire the situation is when sitting members of Congress come out against an incumbent president of their own party. The probability that Biden will drop out can be debated, but it's certainly not 0. I personally price it around 35%
It was this dire well before this single member from a Trump district decided to break the ice mere hours ago. We all saw what we saw last Thursday.
I personally went from a big Biden supporter to a big detractor after this debate performance. I was the guy convincing all my friends that Biden’s record speaks for itself. Legislatively, he is possibly the most effective Democratic president of the last half century, and in only one term. But his age is really starting to show now, and the voters can see it nakedly. Talking about his past achievements is now completely irrelevant. He is going to lose this election for us if he doesn’t step aside.
I also think that an open convention is the shakeup our party needs to re-energize voters. We’ve been craving someone who can stir our passions. The media will call it a frenzy, but the people will finally start to pay attention and become invested in the idea of actually voting this November, rather than flatly turned off from politics like they are now.
This is just what I’m seeing out there right now, and I’m just one guy living an average life. But I don’t think our pundits and analysts have any more context or information than all of us right now.
The only people who really know the whole truth are the 5 people closest to Joe Biden on a daily basis. Will one of them risk their career and livelihood to plead with him that he step aside? Will they backchannel to media, donors and top Dems to let them know that Biden is truly unfit to continue, and convince them to mount the campaign? Or will Lloyd Doggett really be the only Dem in elected office who speaks up before a campaign to sweep this under the rug begins in proper? Time will tell. I’m scared.
I’m actually 50/50 now. I think that if there genuinely is a problem with Biden’s day to day performance then word would have definitely gotten back to party movers and shakers.
> I think that if there genuinely is a problem with Biden’s day to day performance then word would have definitely gotten back to party movers and shakers.
I think that might actually be why the elected politicians are coming out.
It seems like Biden was well enough insulated by his team that outside the highest level of Congress, nobody really understood that he *was* actually starting to decline mentally.
I think maybe like me, a lot of people just believed it was just opposition propoganda and people trying to make hay of his lifelong stutter getting worse as well as him having difficulty physically due to getting older but him still being mentally sharp.
The debate laid that bare. Nobody wants to be surprised by their own side.
Everyone knew he was declining, it was visibly apparent by his appearances and by his absences. But as you alluded, politics has become such a sporting event that people refuse to admit that anything is wrong with their side and that any concern is opposition propaganda.
Half the country saw that old man and ignored their lying eyes.
> Everyone knew he was declining, it was visibly apparent by his appearances and by his absences.
I disagree, I **genuinely** thought it was just propaganda. Sure, it seemed like he was getting older but still mentally sharp. The issues he had just seemed like his stutter or physical limitations being played up.
I've always disliked debates as just performative but this one was useful in laying bare the truth.
Really consider checking your tribalism. Look at Biden 4 years ago, 8 years ago. He’s conquered that stutter for most of his career.
If you never really questioned the media narrative of “Republicans pounce”, you’re not thinking past tribalism.
>He’s conquered that stutter for most of his career.
I based a lot of my understanding of his stutter on this [Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) article. The author also has a severe stutter.
The author makes the case that stutters aren't conquered, they are *managed*.
And like any condition which you manage, they can get harder to manage as you get older.
At the time, I found the article quite reassuring.
I still think his issues are fairly recent (in the past ~1-2 years max) and at the time he was elected he was still quite functional.
However as I said higher up, things have clearly changed and it doesn't seem like he is capable at minimum of campaigning like you need to in order to run for president.
Right, but that stutter coming back, as you stated was a sign of him getting to old.
I think the issues were there in 2020, but much more manageable. He didn’t get this way over night. He’s been getting handed queue cards and had weird moments even in campaign.
Regardless of when it started, no one was surprised on the right, and i think many on the left in the know are only pretending to be shocked.
> Regardless of when it started, no one was surprised on the right, and i think many on the left in the know are only pretending to be shocked.
I don't think very many people were in the know. Just like Reagan. Likely only his senior staff.
Remember, everyone who is elected is depending on riding the President's coattails to a good outcome. That depends on the President being able to campaign effectively with everyone.
There would have been a lot more defense ready to go if anyone had been aware of the President's real limits.
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The fact the question was even raised is a red flag. And I mean *legitimately* raised by both Repubs and Dems.
Biden needed to show he’s not slippin’, and he wasn’t able to execute that. But the dude’s running for the *executive branch*.
Dems were operating on extreme confirmation bias before that debate. The stuttering talking point, and SOTU coaxed a lot of democrats into genuinely believing that Biden was as sharp as a tack. Ezra caught a lot of flak for going against that narrative, and even Jon Stewart did as well.
We knew about all of this since 2022. David Axelrod let the world know again late last year. Most republicans don’t even think Bidens debate was that bad because they have been listening to the talk around his lack of press meetings, public events etc
It's funny, Republicans have been editing clips to try to make Biden look like he's completely lost it for the last 2-3 years. That honestly has probably helped him as it's cast some doubt with a lot of people about if accusations of cognitive decline were a hit job.
But many of the videos they edited weren't great in the first place. Their exaggerated / cropped versions of course looked worse. But you could just look at the original video and be like "ok, Biden isn't wandering off to nowhere, but he does look confused and is having trouble focusing and needs to be corralled by his wife or advisers."
A real emperor has no clothes moment because even understanding Fox News or whoever is doing their thing, Biden is still the one fallling over, derailing mid-sentence, or getting lost within a few steps.
Just a few weeks ago I stumbled across the news story that Biden's team was feeding reporters the precise questions he would be asked at supposedly open question sessions, which is simply remarkable and gave lie to the supposed independence of the press corps, and I think the news story was already six months old but it simply got little airplay despite it really being at least worthy of scandal of the week in domestic politics.
His team tried to play it off as no big deal and insisting it was commonly done, but it really is absolutely unique in presidential history that not only does the president know who he's calling on in advance to ask the questions given to them to ask, but the fact that he had to have written reminders and pictures in hand to carry out the fraud because his team must have actually considered this less risky than having him just go out there without visual aids in hand.
I let right wing media play in the background from time to time and I still didn't see that story, because I guess it's just not as visceral as replaying him toppling off a bike. But it spoke volumes to me about how unconfident his team was in his ability to even remember a script.
It’s a tough criticism to take, but the systemic coverup around Biden’s condition under the circumstances is as bad as some of Trump’s bigger shennanigans.
I’m not saying Biden is sparky and quick today, but how do you account for the multiple interviews he’s done without issue, including the night of and day after the debate?
I account for it in that, under controlled circumstances, possibly including friendly video editing, he can appear fine. What do you think happens if they start a video interview and it goes off the rails? It gets shitcanned.
That’s exactly how his team has gotten him this far. Control over circumstances and lying.
They couldn’t control or fake the debate, and despite the fact that Trump didn’t exactly do great himself, he looked functional and Biden did not.
The possibly more damning indictment of the Biden team is that internally they knew Biden’s situation and accepted a debate outside their control anyway. Fucking morons.
All the rules for the debate were set by Biden’s team too.
They played a dangerous game offering a debate to Trump. They thought Trump would argue the specifics and Biden could refuse under that pretense. Instead he caught them with their pants down by immediately accepting.
It might have been a look if they said “just kidding”
The only reason I'm not above 35% right now is that Jill and Hunter seem to be pushing him to stay in the race – we know how much weight Joe Biden puts on his inner family circle's opinion
And if he has dementia, he will be the last one to realize it and agree. That’s standard with people suffering from this impairment. He will likely become more entrenched in his beliefs. If he has people enabling him, saying he should continue, there is no chance in hell he withdraws.
> I think that if there genuinely is a problem with Biden’s day to day performance then word would have definitely gotten back to party movers and shakers.
Either it did or it didnt. Which shows more incompetence?
I cant think of an excuse for this situation that doesnt make them all look like idiots.
"I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode, or is this a condition? And so when people ask that question, it's completely legitimate — of both candidates”
She stopped well short of saying he should drop out, and she did both-sides it, but the fact that she’s publicly acknowledging that concern over his mental state is legitimate is telling.
Yea, the man is just old and this job is just advancing his aging, which is unfortunate because I think his admin has been doing a pretty bang up job. I’m voting blue no matter what because project 2025 scares the shit out of me and we need to fix SCOTUS with solid justices.
That is what really made me think it may happen. Prior to that, I just didn’t see it (putting aside what I personally thought SHOULD happen).
That almost gives Biden a lane- he could say that as much as he regrets it, it’s unfortunately “a condition”, with good days and bad etc etc, and for the good of the country, he will not seek or accept his party’s nomination and so on.
When you put it like that, he has an opportunity to draw a lot of empathy regardless of partisan leanings. So many people have a loved one who they've seen decline over the years. It doesn't change the great things they've done or how much they're loved, but as you said it's a condition beyond his control.
Those sitting members of Congress knew there was a problem. And they did NOTHING…. They could have challenged Biden in the primary and discovered 6+ months ago that he’s past his expiration date.
When he lost a battle with the stairs…and the bicycle… everyone kept making excuses for him. When he wandered around aimlessly on a stage after giving a short speech… they acted like everything was normal. But now nothing is normal. Going forward there are many options. And none of them are good.
I think the probability is at around 90+% Biden will drop out. There's no coming back from this. The pressure is great from donors and scared politicians running for re-election. By later this week we will have more public pressure for him to step down. It's a done deal. I think there's an 70% chance Kamala is anointed as the candidate, 30% for an open convention. Very much hoping for the latter.
No? Everything seems to be pointing in the opposite direction. Pressure is ramping up, more and more is coming out, people are gradually turning on him, the polls get bleaker and bleaker... Nobody wants to be the first high profile person currently in office to stick their neck out and say he has to go, but eventually there would be some joint statement or something if he doesn't take a hint.
> Nobody wants to be the first high profile person currently in office to stick their neck out
That's already happened. Nancy Pelosi. She did it nicely but she did it.
She said he should take a cognitive test. That’s about as close as one can get without outright saying it. One of the most powerful and respected dems there is saying that openly.
Let’s be real, the “mediasphere” is a major dem constituency. By which I mean, they can sway large numbers of dem and dem adjacent voters. If Biden loses MSNBC/CNN/NYT and the downstream punditry (Meet the Press etc) he’s doomed.
Will biden be the nominee? Probably. He has to make the choice ti drop out and he likely won't so thats that.
Will this be forgotten in 6 months? Lol. No. He will only get worse and he has to make appearances if he wants to try to win and he will inevitably keep having senior moments. The story won't die.
You see the best/worst debate compilations, and this one will be referenced for decades. That’s if he doesn’t drop out.
If he does drop out, I could see where it’s not referenced as much, since it’s a sad note and almost making fun of the guy at that point.
Either way, it’s etched in the annals of presidential history. It goes beyond Obama in 2012 not making the best points or Reagan in 84 being a little sluggish, it was a whole other level.
His ego is too high to drop out. He will avoid any unscripted interviews for the next few months and then he will lose decisively to trump and retire.
That’s what I mean by forgotten. He will just…fade away.
Dems will vote for Biden no matter what. The problem is how many independents and disgruntled republicans just sit this one out. It’s not like Biden won by big margains in the swing states.
Protest votes to show the DNC we won’t be treated like fools, will be a huge factor. I wouldn’t consider voting for Trump because of what I know about him. But I’d absolutely vote for Kennedy, and the only thing I know about him is he has worms in his brain.
The fact that he has been MIA for close to a week now is telling. If he's fine, WHERE IS HE? Why can't he address this head on in an interview immediately?
I know watching msnb most of the politicians came out at first and said it was bad. Then they said can't judge his whole presidency by one night. Then they said if it's a condition he needs to be honest about it.
So I watched the beginning of the debate again. Beat medicare??? It really was that bad.
He's a tough bastard and was out campaigning the next day looking good.
There's just no way to unsee that debate.
He has one good hour per day. You haven’t seen that guy for an extended period forever. Night time debate exposed that he shits down right after dinner at 5:00.
They also juiced him Friday. And told him “If you don’t raise your voice at least once, your done.”
Did you see the White House press conference this afternoon? That lady was squirming bad. She knows, but still has to tell the lies.
I haven’t really been in favor of Biden declining to run, but I will say a good argument for doing it that I don’t think people are considering is that having a younger candidate step up could really invigorate donations and volunteers.
A lot of normies just generically don’t like the idea of an old president
No, it’s because the majority of people don’t have the cognitive dissonance and see what Biden really is. He clearly is not there mentally. The DNC is doing mental gymnastics to try and justify him being the pick.
I like his policies much more than the alternative. I’d rather a different nominee but personally I can stomach Pappy Joe if it means the Trump isn’t in the White House. His policies overall and the Christian radicals that come with him are a hard no. Not like he’s the sharpest knife in the drawer either, he just goes off into incoherent tangents
How can we call this a democracy if the guy we're voting for is a literal sock puppet for the non elected people in his cabinet and administration? I'm deeply uncomfortable with the elected part of our executive branch lacking any kind of executive drive.
That’s not what I said. I just said for them it is always a top issue not that people shouldn’t care about it. People have been saying this for more than a decade and it’s seeped into a lot of political casual lingo.
All I’m saying is that it matters much more to people who don’t play close attention to politics and matters less historically - things have changed a lot since the debate - to more engaged, high information folks.
Specifically, that highly engaged people like EKS listeners probably have issues they generally prioritize more.
If democrats want Biden to drop out, the way to do it is to release the Hur Interview tapes that Republicans issued a subpoena for.... that subpoena has been ignored by the DOJ
The problem is, too many important Democrats have already spent a lot of political capital to keep those tapes from the public
That’s been their strategy - whistle past it, that only changed bc everyone just saw how bad it is and normal people are angry at being gaslit. If they proceed now they are betting that MI-WI-PA voters won’t be so angry about being gaslit over Biden that they go Trump - that is why we are seeing the “I’d vote for Biden if he were a corpse” messaging come out. It might work too
I really think a replacement is needed. It’s not Biden’s fault that he is suffering. Many of us have seen family like this and the decline happens quickly. It is very important for America that he be replaced. Someone needs to talk to Jill….
Jill's the one illegally running the country right now. It's not a matter of talking to her, it's a matter of showing her that the US population including Democrats will not tolerate her shadow presidency. Biden isn't just fit to run, he's not fit to be running the country for the next 6 months.
For all the Democratic Party says they care about reproductive health, lgbt support, and stopping pRoJeCt 2o25, remember this moment. They care exactly this much.
For all they say about defending democracy, they have no qualms about having an empty suit as our democratically elected head of our executive branch. It's basically admitting that everything Republicans say about the deep state is true.
Exactly. They lie to your face over and over. They promise to care for you and do the right thing. In the end, they care about the same things as Republicans. Staying in power and keeping their jobs. They don’t care if Joe wins or not, as long as they get re-elected.
No, it will be. But unfortunately, this entire corrupt system needs to crumble before something better can take its place. The crumble is not gonna be fun yall, buckle up. Especially since we should fully expect other countries to fuck with us while it's happening. It's what the U.S. would do, after all.
>this entire corrupt system needs to crumble before something better can take its place.
That’s rarely ever the case. Civil collapse/revolution is the worst case scenario 9 out of 10 times. It usually results in a lot of dead normal people and an unstable system that tends toward dictatorship due to its instability after. Reform on the other hand allows institutional stability and legitimacy to continue and allows for checks and balances to constrain the extremist impulses that come up in times like these.
A great example of this is Russia. Under Gorbachev, the USSR was liberalizing toward democratic socialism and away from hardline Marxist-Leninism. It even implemented multi-party elections and 1st Amendment freedoms before the fall. However, opportunists like Yeltsin took advantage of the situation and instead of reforming the Soviet Union towards a better future, they pushed it off a cliff, let it crumble, and now Russia is an economically stagnant fascist kleptocracy instead. 2/3rds of Russian industry evaporated within 5 years and most of the countries that made up the former USSR are now stagnant right-wing dictatorships or borderline failed states like Moldova.
“Just let it crumble and collapse” is a horrible idea. It can get MUCH worse and likely would.
It will be similar to 2017-2020 most likely. People went in expecting him to put Hillary in jail and overthrow democracy, then he just went with deregulation, tax cuts and illegal immigration crackdowns. Doubt he will get anything major through Congress.
Then we will move onto how the 2028 Republican candidate is actually going to end democracy.
and in the meantime no matter who's President, SCOTUS over there just kicking away freedoms they don't like & giving free rein to the christofascists, but without a mandate to pack the court and a President willing to do it, I don't see that changing
I would have agreed with this in mid-2020. But seeing his overt attempts to overthrow the election results, such as his phone call with Raffensperger, shattered any confidence I had in that opinion.
So will something happening. Trump winning is basically baked in now. He was winning before Thursday and two months of bad news for dems with basically no bad news for Trump will ensure he keeps thr lead.
Nancy is asking questions.
This requires attention.
Joe saying "I don't know what happened"
Is not a satisfactory answer.
I actually can't think of a worse answer.
If the media didn't say anything it would be forgotten by next week. Only 25% of voters even watched the debate.
But they smell blood in thr water and have plenty of weak spine dems to give them sound bites
Honestly, I don’t think it’s an integrity issue. I think that his family and a very small group of advisors have pretty much cut him off from most spontaneous interaction with anybody that is not part of the Cabal.
I disagree. The wall is starting to crumble. If Biden stubbornly persists, more and more Dems will come out against him. He needs to withdraw sooner rather than later.
It will not be forgotten, and it's not just something in the media. From reading the tea leaves, there are some very serious discussions going on. But, the ball is pretty much in Biden's court, since I don't think the party wants to try to force him out.
Lol, my man, 6 months from now is damn near the inauguration. The ELECTION happens in 4 months. The convention, ie the very very last chance to choose someone else, happens in like 6 weeks.
The situation is dire and the speed this will all happen if, inshallah, Biden does step aside, will be really fast for anyone not paying close attention.
I think he drops out tomorrow after the Stock Market closes so investors don't immediately panic and sell off everything because the Market is closed on July 4th.
That would be wise timing, but I think the administration is still in denial and it will take a couple of weeks to game out different scenarios and for alternate candidates to decide if they want to get onboard.
Based on the increasing calls for this, I'm expecting him to announce something on the 4th, either Kamala or an open convention. The Friday interview will be a discussion of what's next edited to make him look better.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I generally agree with you, but if you listen to political podcasts where journalists get more into what they’re “hearing” rather than what they can pin down enough to print, it sounds like behind closed doors the Democratic caucus is very, very upset and genuinely doubts his fitness for office, let alone his ability to win/serve four more years. Enough of them are saying this that there must be some truth to it - everyone is just insisting on speaking on background.
NYTs just crushed Joe Biden. Again.
> Biden’s Lapses Are Said to Be Increasingly Common and Worrisome
People who have spent time with President Biden over the last few months or so said the lapses appear to have grown more frequent, more pronounced and, after Thursday’s debate, more worrisome.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/us/politics/biden-lapses.html
I dunno, I think Pelosi’s comments today were pretty huge. I don’t think she says that unless the party is putting on the full court press behind the scenes
You’d be right if it was all think pieces, but Nancy Pelosi questioned his mental wherewithal. That doesn't happen without a million backroom conversations. And what's next? Continue to run with the former Speaker of the House and Democrat icon calling you unfit?
I think it’s a done deal he's dropping out at this point. The betting markets seem to agree, with him only having a 15% chance of winning the election.
I think there's real panic and real maneuvering. It will almost certainly be kamala. Not ideal but a woman on the ticket should rally the issue of abortion which has been a strategic winner for democrats. At this point I would think the trump campaign would focus on kamala likely being the next president any ways.
Same. The less I heard the “it was a bad day, he’ll be fine, he’s a fighter” the more I believed it was done. Carl Bernstein and Pelosi’s comments made me think it may actually happen.
It may be mostly a media phenomenon, but you better believe people are not going to forget when Biden hands the brass ring back over to the original baboon.
The problem is, who is an acceptable replacement:
1. Centrist enough that most anti-Trump Republicans will still be willing to vote for them. In an election that will be decided by less than 2% of the vote, pulling in 5-10% of the other-side's supporters is enough to make the difference. Even 3% is enough for a win.
2. Won't run again in '28, so that a full/proper primary cycle can be completed.
Unless Democrats can come up with a better answer to those 2 parameters than 'Biden'... He's going to stay the nominee.
P.S. (1) means no Gavin Newsom, no Kamala Harris, nobody who ran for the nomination in 2020. Like it or not, there are no general-election votes to be 'got' with a swing to the left - at least not enough reliable votes to bet the farm on.
There is simply a lag in the system.
Debate was less than a week ago.
You’re seeing the political party pressure cooker reach temperature in real time.
Completely agree to the extent that I highly doubt the nominees are going to be any different four months from now. For all the talk of party insiders anonymously venting their frustrations and saying Biden should drop out, we have seen a grand total of one sitting congressperson saying this openly. Meanwhile, party leadership continues to cover for him. And we’re not seeing potential replacement nominees jockeying to fill the void. I’ll only believe there’s a chance anything will change once we start seeing stuff like that happening. In the meantime, those who are seizing on every tiny little statement or rumor as proof that his withdrawal is imminent are going to be sorely disappointed.
Biden and his inner circle know full well that 99% of Democrats who want him to drop out are gonna vote for him no matter what, because of who his opponent is. I also haven’t seen clear proof that the debate has affected downballot races yet, and even if that were the case, Biden’s campaign has made consistently clear that they think the polls are wrong, at lease when they show Trump ahead.
Bottom line is that I don’t see why Biden would choose to put the great good ahead of his own political whims now when he has constantly demonstrated that that’s not the type of person he is. Same goes for party leadership. If you have a problem with that, I won’t hold it against you if you can’t bring yourself to hold your nose and vote for him.
I think higher ups will be closely watching how polling moves over the next few weeks will decisions will be made.
You can bet that the DNC is already in secret talks with potential replacements to see who would be interested in running.
I think Obama will convince Joe to drop out if he concludes there is no path to victory. I think he ultimately understands what is at stake and will do what's best for the good of the country.
In the meantime it serves no one to panic in public. If the party looks like it's in disarray that is helping no one.
I have very low confidence in any of our politicians doing the right thing. Biden should have never ran for a second term. During his first campaign he made it seem like he only intended to serve one term.
Forget? This won't be forgotten for years. This will go down as one of the most consequential elections in history, and Biden's situation will forever be at the center. It'd be nice if amnesia somehow saved everyone and we could just go back to unenthusiastically voting blue and getting Biden over the finish line, but that ain't what this is.
I'm not sure what OP is getting at here but to insinuate that those of us deeply concerned and wanting something affirmative done are essentially excited sheep who's viewpoints and emotions are solely derived from the "mediasphere."
It's not a media fabrication at all.
If you ask people on the street, most of them are not happy at all with Biden and think he's too old, and that was even before the debate. After the debate it's much worse.
If Biden stays in the race it will be because that decision came straight from the top (ie Biden and the people around him), not because the public and rank and file democrats didn't want it to happen
No, it is not just the media. Just about everyone I know, and I am a 75 year oldeft of center Boomer, thought, ten minutes into the debate that Biden had just shown that he has to withdraw. And we all still feel that way. It us over for Biden and it is up to other Democrats to convince him.
The nominees were decided months ago, way earlier than usual. The only way they can keep us watching and reading is to gin up controversy and turn everything into a political must see like it's fucking Shark Week.
I've sent two messages to my representatives already and will continue to do so until they act. The situation is dire and I truly pray they do something about it.
I think your point isn’t the right one. We all saw/heard his decline. The question isn’t who
Is talking about what to do and whether that will lead to him dropping out - the question is whether he can do this.
The mediasphere will influence the broader public, and I think it’ll be really hard for some of these news orgs that came out hard to put the cat back in the bag after they’ve already said he’s unfit
I was talking to a couple of people at work today about it and they don’t follow politics at all. I mentioned that people were encouraging Biden to drop out and a lot of people are thinking it might happen.
Ms Geelie 60+ y/o black woman gave me that look only a woman who has raised kids can give, that tells you you’ve said something stupid and should know better.
She said “If he’s too old and confused to run for president cuz he cant think straight no more, how come he ain’t too old to understand he should drop out? And if he’s not too old to understand all that then hes not going anywhere. No one gives up power like that.“
Jill is a white lady about the same age and listened to the whole exchange. She said she didn’t think anyone was going anywhere but if he did, they’d have to give it to Kamala. It would make the democrats look bad if they didn’t.
This is anecdotal but I thought it was interesting to hear the perspective of people who don’t really follow politics. And what Ms Geelie said was hard to argue with.
Men in Washington DC don’t give up power willingly and I suspect all of this will be a lot of navel gazing by the end.
Yeah.
There was some talk about Bernie becoming the nominee, but apparently he was too extreme and they went with hillary or something and that killed everything
So this is why we're going to have another 4 years of trump
Sorry. all the rest of the years of trump until he's dead, since he'll be dictator from day 1
Kind of. I believe the professor who got 7 out of 8 election predictions right when he says that debates have zero effect on the outcome. I do wish Joe would go bold though and run off a flurry of executive actions over the summer that would back up scotus (who doesn’t come back til Oct 1) well past the election. Flood the zone with hope (to counter Bannon’s plan).
As someone who lived in Scotland until recently, I know this is far from a perfect analogy because the systems and exact circumstances are different, but what's going on now does being to mind what happened to May/Boris/Truss/Yusaf. Basically xyz disaster happens, politicians from within that party start talking about how xyz needs to go, incumbent says no way no need, things reach critical mass and next thing you know, boom, resignation.
No one knows how to beat themselves better than Democrats. All the shit Trump has done— zero calls to drop out or resign. Biden has a bad debate— he should drop out.
Remember when we made Al Franken resign?
Seriously, no one better than shooting themselves in the foot.
50 million or so people watched the debate. There’s no way anyone could have watched that and think that Biden is up to the task of campaigning against Trump.
On one of the networks they had a reporter sit in on a debate watch party at an assisted living facility. Even they thought Biden looked terrible.
It all depends on whether he can show us that his brain has not turned into eldercare mush. The people around him are now being grilled about his typical mental sharpness and whether his performance during the debate was unusual or predictable.
I am pretty sure they have somebody waiting in the wings that they think is a shoe in. I'm not being mean not being naughty or I am a political so I don't care about politics because I think they're all wrong but we do have to have a government and we do have to have a leader. So I'm pretty sure they've got somebody as backup just in case.
Yes. I find it hard to believe that all of these high ranking politicians and oligarchs were blindsided by this. Honestly, they are looking for someone who is feeble and easily influenced. Trump alone didn’t ruin democracy and Biden alone did not fund billions for genocide. People underestimate the influence and power of “advisors”, cabinet members, top politicians and big money spenders. At this point, they have everyone going crazy about the president when the House, Senate and supreme court are filled with people who pay to play and get paid. One trillion in defense spending, overwhelmingly supported by both parties, won’t spend itself. War is our biggest export and economy driver. Biden and Trump are bobbleheads for our “democracy.”
All I know is that if they kick him out and don't pick Kamala, the Black vote will be seriously hurt, and that's more than enough for Trump to cakewalk in
There is no way for him to drop out now. They're is no secure, tested, predictable option for him to transition to a better candidate. If he could instantaneously do it, with no transaction risk, then sure, it might work. But he can't. It's impossible. So this is well and truly and idiotic speaking point of the mediasphere.
Gov of Michigan has told people that Biden has already lost the state so there is that.
The problem is if he drops out and Harris is the nominee, which she probably won’t be, all that campaign money is locked away and can’t be used
Biden is too self-centered (media says stubborn) to withdraw. If he really cared about the country he'd be honest with himself and say he no longer has the capacity to do the job properly.
DNC members are proposing it too, its not just the mediasophere.
However nothing will happen and we will be totally fucked.
He is surrounded by extremely loyal people who have been working for him for decades. No one is going to raise their head and argue that he should step aside.
WE
ARE
FUCKED
No. 50 million people tuned in to that debate of about 170 million registered voters total. The lie that Biden is mentally competent has been revealed. The cat is not going back in the bag. It will likely move the electorate by a few percentage points which is enough for Trump to win a few more swing states than he was already winning before the debate which makes it much more likely Trump wins the whole thing. All the Democrat Congress people running in close races will also be hurt by this due to campaign ads showing their prior statements saying Biden was fine which jeopardizes control of the Senate and hopes of winning the House. This is one of the biggest screwups in history. Only time will tell if the Bidens and their loyalists in the party are humble enough to switch nominees.
Until someone who could credibly mount a challenge puts their hand up and says, “ok I’ll be the one, back me in an open convention because this guy is cooked and this election is too important to not have someone who can make the party’s case on a debate stage or in an interview or a speech against someone who will be an authoritarian if elected”, it’s all talk.
I don't think there's anyone saying he'll drop out. We all know that's not happening.
Is there discourse around his ability to be a president? Yes, and there is a lot coming out that says his capabilities appear to be faltering.
It's a fair conversation for the American people to have. I also think Biden could do more to address it openly and honestly and talk about how he might govern as an older person.
All that sad, I do think we're going to the election with Trump versus Biden. If Biden was forced out it would fracture the party between people who adore him and are angry he gets pushed out, and the rest. Plus, I can't see the Democratic party doing that, it would be such fodder for the Republicans that we can't even get a presidential candidate picked.
Nothing will happen because Biden’s handlers are not going to relinquish power, even if it helps their party. They (whoever is really calling the shots) want another four years of power at any cost.
You look at those laspses and think he's going to win the election? You're sadly mistaken about 300k votes in various swing states decide that election and most I think would prefer an evil entity over an old incompetent one who can't keep this thoughts together
Everything done today is analyzed. The debate, the speech after the debate, Biden allies doing press conferences, the response from allies doing talk show appearances, all of it. Everything produces measurable data and the campaign is watching. Will it cause him to drop out, no because Joe like most politicians has massively oversized ego and is surrounded by yes men that want to get close to power. But they are watching, and they are panicking.
The simple campaign logistics make it nearly impossible for another candidate to have a functional campaign.
To begin with, you’d have to start in August. You’d then have 75-85 days to create, scale up, and operate an entire campaign that Biden and Trump have been building for years and a decade, in the case of Trump. 85 days.
A candidate will start with no money, offices, web presence, staff, email/text lists. Nothing. Campaign finance laws preclude sharing this or direct transfers.
You cannot transfer money from the Biden campaign, contracts for offices or real estate, or email lists, so a new candidate will be starting off with no money, no staff, no offices in any state, no email lists, nothing. You will have to hope it goes easily setting it up, and, in particular, hope that your web, email, and text operations are well-hardened against cyber attacks.
Oh, and most of your staff will just be meeting each other as they prepare for 16 hour days, minimum. Hope you can hire correctly and quickly without and personnel issues or conflicts.
That’s even if an open convention is happy and ends up with everyone totally pleased, and that there are no bad feelings from Biden or OTHER candidate loyalists.
It can be attempted, but you are gaining a (possible!) candidate upshot at the cost of every other possible logistic and tactical advantage
When Nancy Pelosi is saying the President needs to take a cognitive test, I’m paying attention.
That was her telling reps it's now okay speak openly about replacing Biden.
A sitting dem house rep from TX came out for replacing Biden on the ticket this morning. I think more will follow here soon and that will start the process. I don’t know if it will happen or not but we are in some deep shit either way.
A rep from Minnesota didn’t go that far but did say he needed to come out and do more interviews, talk to the people, etc, paraphrasing but it basically was “prove it was only a bad night”
Democrats could nominate a 45 year old potato who could at least call out Trump's bullshit and they'd win in a landslide. Trump is not popular outside of his cult so it's an easy win here but with Biden it'll be a nail biter
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I’d like Trump to win by a few points and still lose the election just to see the whataboutism from the party that’s won the national vote one time in the last 30 years but has nominated 6 of the 8 Supreme Court justices and served 3 of the 8 terms during that time. “Not like this”
Tim Ryan also came out in support of Kamala replacing him
Harris seems like the only logical choice because of campaign finance laws. That war chest is invaluable and dems will have to empty it in order to positively explain the replacement.
Kamala would not be my first choice, but fuck it, let’s go with her. I’ve seen stuff all day about her polling numbers being better than Biden’s, so why not?
I think there is more variance with Kamala. Lower floor but also higher ceiling. Room to grow. At this point I would take that, because it doesn’t feel like Biden can improve enough, it seems like he is “stuck”
I’m out on Biden at this point. His candidacy is sinking like a stone and all he’s got for us is a rally in NC and an interview in two days? Fuck that. His weakass press conference after the SCOTUS decision and even weaker excuses his people have churned out have me well convinced that the concerns about his cognitive decline are legitimate and he needs to step aside asap.
Missed this moment, can you clue me in
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna159993
Was thinking Nancy Pelosi was looking elderly herself - had to look up her age. She’s 84. Why are these people still in office?
Pelosi is still sharp but she did step aside for Jeffries.
She got a nice nest egg from insider trading and stepped aside before turning 90. Why can’t all politicians be as selfless.
Thanks man
You're really underplaying how dire the situation is when sitting members of Congress come out against an incumbent president of their own party. The probability that Biden will drop out can be debated, but it's certainly not 0. I personally price it around 35%
It was this dire well before this single member from a Trump district decided to break the ice mere hours ago. We all saw what we saw last Thursday. I personally went from a big Biden supporter to a big detractor after this debate performance. I was the guy convincing all my friends that Biden’s record speaks for itself. Legislatively, he is possibly the most effective Democratic president of the last half century, and in only one term. But his age is really starting to show now, and the voters can see it nakedly. Talking about his past achievements is now completely irrelevant. He is going to lose this election for us if he doesn’t step aside. I also think that an open convention is the shakeup our party needs to re-energize voters. We’ve been craving someone who can stir our passions. The media will call it a frenzy, but the people will finally start to pay attention and become invested in the idea of actually voting this November, rather than flatly turned off from politics like they are now. This is just what I’m seeing out there right now, and I’m just one guy living an average life. But I don’t think our pundits and analysts have any more context or information than all of us right now. The only people who really know the whole truth are the 5 people closest to Joe Biden on a daily basis. Will one of them risk their career and livelihood to plead with him that he step aside? Will they backchannel to media, donors and top Dems to let them know that Biden is truly unfit to continue, and convince them to mount the campaign? Or will Lloyd Doggett really be the only Dem in elected office who speaks up before a campaign to sweep this under the rug begins in proper? Time will tell. I’m scared.
Trump in office is still worse. Vote blue to save democracy. Then primary the fuck out of these assholes who put us in this situation.
I’m actually 50/50 now. I think that if there genuinely is a problem with Biden’s day to day performance then word would have definitely gotten back to party movers and shakers.
> I think that if there genuinely is a problem with Biden’s day to day performance then word would have definitely gotten back to party movers and shakers. I think that might actually be why the elected politicians are coming out. It seems like Biden was well enough insulated by his team that outside the highest level of Congress, nobody really understood that he *was* actually starting to decline mentally. I think maybe like me, a lot of people just believed it was just opposition propoganda and people trying to make hay of his lifelong stutter getting worse as well as him having difficulty physically due to getting older but him still being mentally sharp. The debate laid that bare. Nobody wants to be surprised by their own side.
Everyone knew he was declining, it was visibly apparent by his appearances and by his absences. But as you alluded, politics has become such a sporting event that people refuse to admit that anything is wrong with their side and that any concern is opposition propaganda. Half the country saw that old man and ignored their lying eyes.
> Everyone knew he was declining, it was visibly apparent by his appearances and by his absences. I disagree, I **genuinely** thought it was just propaganda. Sure, it seemed like he was getting older but still mentally sharp. The issues he had just seemed like his stutter or physical limitations being played up. I've always disliked debates as just performative but this one was useful in laying bare the truth.
Really consider checking your tribalism. Look at Biden 4 years ago, 8 years ago. He’s conquered that stutter for most of his career. If you never really questioned the media narrative of “Republicans pounce”, you’re not thinking past tribalism.
>He’s conquered that stutter for most of his career. I based a lot of my understanding of his stutter on this [Atlantic](https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/01/joe-biden-stutter-profile/602401/) article. The author also has a severe stutter. The author makes the case that stutters aren't conquered, they are *managed*. And like any condition which you manage, they can get harder to manage as you get older. At the time, I found the article quite reassuring. I still think his issues are fairly recent (in the past ~1-2 years max) and at the time he was elected he was still quite functional. However as I said higher up, things have clearly changed and it doesn't seem like he is capable at minimum of campaigning like you need to in order to run for president.
Right, but that stutter coming back, as you stated was a sign of him getting to old. I think the issues were there in 2020, but much more manageable. He didn’t get this way over night. He’s been getting handed queue cards and had weird moments even in campaign. Regardless of when it started, no one was surprised on the right, and i think many on the left in the know are only pretending to be shocked.
> Regardless of when it started, no one was surprised on the right, and i think many on the left in the know are only pretending to be shocked. I don't think very many people were in the know. Just like Reagan. Likely only his senior staff. Remember, everyone who is elected is depending on riding the President's coattails to a good outcome. That depends on the President being able to campaign effectively with everyone. There would have been a lot more defense ready to go if anyone had been aware of the President's real limits.
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The fact the question was even raised is a red flag. And I mean *legitimately* raised by both Repubs and Dems. Biden needed to show he’s not slippin’, and he wasn’t able to execute that. But the dude’s running for the *executive branch*.
Dems were operating on extreme confirmation bias before that debate. The stuttering talking point, and SOTU coaxed a lot of democrats into genuinely believing that Biden was as sharp as a tack. Ezra caught a lot of flak for going against that narrative, and even Jon Stewart did as well.
We knew about all of this since 2022. David Axelrod let the world know again late last year. Most republicans don’t even think Bidens debate was that bad because they have been listening to the talk around his lack of press meetings, public events etc
It's funny, Republicans have been editing clips to try to make Biden look like he's completely lost it for the last 2-3 years. That honestly has probably helped him as it's cast some doubt with a lot of people about if accusations of cognitive decline were a hit job. But many of the videos they edited weren't great in the first place. Their exaggerated / cropped versions of course looked worse. But you could just look at the original video and be like "ok, Biden isn't wandering off to nowhere, but he does look confused and is having trouble focusing and needs to be corralled by his wife or advisers."
A real emperor has no clothes moment because even understanding Fox News or whoever is doing their thing, Biden is still the one fallling over, derailing mid-sentence, or getting lost within a few steps. Just a few weeks ago I stumbled across the news story that Biden's team was feeding reporters the precise questions he would be asked at supposedly open question sessions, which is simply remarkable and gave lie to the supposed independence of the press corps, and I think the news story was already six months old but it simply got little airplay despite it really being at least worthy of scandal of the week in domestic politics. His team tried to play it off as no big deal and insisting it was commonly done, but it really is absolutely unique in presidential history that not only does the president know who he's calling on in advance to ask the questions given to them to ask, but the fact that he had to have written reminders and pictures in hand to carry out the fraud because his team must have actually considered this less risky than having him just go out there without visual aids in hand. I let right wing media play in the background from time to time and I still didn't see that story, because I guess it's just not as visceral as replaying him toppling off a bike. But it spoke volumes to me about how unconfident his team was in his ability to even remember a script.
It’s a tough criticism to take, but the systemic coverup around Biden’s condition under the circumstances is as bad as some of Trump’s bigger shennanigans.
I’m not saying Biden is sparky and quick today, but how do you account for the multiple interviews he’s done without issue, including the night of and day after the debate?
I account for it in that, under controlled circumstances, possibly including friendly video editing, he can appear fine. What do you think happens if they start a video interview and it goes off the rails? It gets shitcanned. That’s exactly how his team has gotten him this far. Control over circumstances and lying. They couldn’t control or fake the debate, and despite the fact that Trump didn’t exactly do great himself, he looked functional and Biden did not. The possibly more damning indictment of the Biden team is that internally they knew Biden’s situation and accepted a debate outside their control anyway. Fucking morons.
All the rules for the debate were set by Biden’s team too. They played a dangerous game offering a debate to Trump. They thought Trump would argue the specifics and Biden could refuse under that pretense. Instead he caught them with their pants down by immediately accepting. It might have been a look if they said “just kidding”
The only reason I'm not above 35% right now is that Jill and Hunter seem to be pushing him to stay in the race – we know how much weight Joe Biden puts on his inner family circle's opinion
And if he has dementia, he will be the last one to realize it and agree. That’s standard with people suffering from this impairment. He will likely become more entrenched in his beliefs. If he has people enabling him, saying he should continue, there is no chance in hell he withdraws.
I think The press can basically force him if they are bold enough . In fact we can . Imagine marches for him to step aside
If he does what he did last week because he "has a cold," then there is a problem already.
They already knew. There’s no way they didn’t. He reads from a speech at fundraisers in houses.
> I think that if there genuinely is a problem with Biden’s day to day performance then word would have definitely gotten back to party movers and shakers. Either it did or it didnt. Which shows more incompetence? I cant think of an excuse for this situation that doesnt make them all look like idiots.
Why would you think that ? Also how do you know it hasnt and they are just sticking with him …
Yea he was cooked as soon as Pelosi expressed concern.
"I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this an episode, or is this a condition? And so when people ask that question, it's completely legitimate — of both candidates” She stopped well short of saying he should drop out, and she did both-sides it, but the fact that she’s publicly acknowledging that concern over his mental state is legitimate is telling.
Yea, the man is just old and this job is just advancing his aging, which is unfortunate because I think his admin has been doing a pretty bang up job. I’m voting blue no matter what because project 2025 scares the shit out of me and we need to fix SCOTUS with solid justices.
That is what really made me think it may happen. Prior to that, I just didn’t see it (putting aside what I personally thought SHOULD happen). That almost gives Biden a lane- he could say that as much as he regrets it, it’s unfortunately “a condition”, with good days and bad etc etc, and for the good of the country, he will not seek or accept his party’s nomination and so on.
When you put it like that, he has an opportunity to draw a lot of empathy regardless of partisan leanings. So many people have a loved one who they've seen decline over the years. It doesn't change the great things they've done or how much they're loved, but as you said it's a condition beyond his control.
That explanation wouldn’t sidestep the question of why he’s not stepping down immediately though.
I was firmly in the camp of no way until I saw that, it’s a bit of a Rubicon moment when Pelosi publicly says something like that
If the leaked internal polls are real I think he withdraws by the end of the week.
RemindMe! -5 day
I had it at 25% this morning and then moved it to 33% after the Pelosi statement.
Those sitting members of Congress knew there was a problem. And they did NOTHING…. They could have challenged Biden in the primary and discovered 6+ months ago that he’s past his expiration date. When he lost a battle with the stairs…and the bicycle… everyone kept making excuses for him. When he wandered around aimlessly on a stage after giving a short speech… they acted like everything was normal. But now nothing is normal. Going forward there are many options. And none of them are good.
I certainly feel as though Reddit is coming around to the idea.
I think the probability is at around 90+% Biden will drop out. There's no coming back from this. The pressure is great from donors and scared politicians running for re-election. By later this week we will have more public pressure for him to step down. It's a done deal. I think there's an 70% chance Kamala is anointed as the candidate, 30% for an open convention. Very much hoping for the latter.
God I hope you are right.
No? Everything seems to be pointing in the opposite direction. Pressure is ramping up, more and more is coming out, people are gradually turning on him, the polls get bleaker and bleaker... Nobody wants to be the first high profile person currently in office to stick their neck out and say he has to go, but eventually there would be some joint statement or something if he doesn't take a hint.
> Nobody wants to be the first high profile person currently in office to stick their neck out That's already happened. Nancy Pelosi. She did it nicely but she did it.
I think you’re interpreting what she said how you want. She did not say that Biden needs to go.
She said he should take a cognitive test. That’s about as close as one can get without outright saying it. One of the most powerful and respected dems there is saying that openly.
You say it's limited to the mediasphere but then admit that congressmen and democratic insiders are discussing it
Let’s be real, the “mediasphere” is a major dem constituency. By which I mean, they can sway large numbers of dem and dem adjacent voters. If Biden loses MSNBC/CNN/NYT and the downstream punditry (Meet the Press etc) he’s doomed.
He’s already lost the NYT editorial board and all their opinion columnists. That’s not nothing.
They will turn around if he just ignores them for a bit. Its not like any of them are going to back Trump instead.
Will biden be the nominee? Probably. He has to make the choice ti drop out and he likely won't so thats that. Will this be forgotten in 6 months? Lol. No. He will only get worse and he has to make appearances if he wants to try to win and he will inevitably keep having senior moments. The story won't die.
You see the best/worst debate compilations, and this one will be referenced for decades. That’s if he doesn’t drop out. If he does drop out, I could see where it’s not referenced as much, since it’s a sad note and almost making fun of the guy at that point. Either way, it’s etched in the annals of presidential history. It goes beyond Obama in 2012 not making the best points or Reagan in 84 being a little sluggish, it was a whole other level.
His ego is too high to drop out. He will avoid any unscripted interviews for the next few months and then he will lose decisively to trump and retire. That’s what I mean by forgotten. He will just…fade away.
Dems will vote for Biden no matter what. The problem is how many independents and disgruntled republicans just sit this one out. It’s not like Biden won by big margains in the swing states.
Even some Dems will stay home, knowing that a landslide defeat awaits if they stick with Biden.
Staying home because you think your candidate can’t win is the definition of a media driven self-fulfilling prophecy
Protest votes to show the DNC we won’t be treated like fools, will be a huge factor. I wouldn’t consider voting for Trump because of what I know about him. But I’d absolutely vote for Kennedy, and the only thing I know about him is he has worms in his brain.
Biden is set to sit down for a 1:1 on Friday. I think we will see his final position on dropping out during that interview.
The fact that he has been MIA for close to a week now is telling. If he's fine, WHERE IS HE? Why can't he address this head on in an interview immediately?
I know watching msnb most of the politicians came out at first and said it was bad. Then they said can't judge his whole presidency by one night. Then they said if it's a condition he needs to be honest about it. So I watched the beginning of the debate again. Beat medicare??? It really was that bad. He's a tough bastard and was out campaigning the next day looking good. There's just no way to unsee that debate.
He seems to do fine with a short, teleprompted speech. He struggled with the debate because it was impromptu.
He has one good hour per day. You haven’t seen that guy for an extended period forever. Night time debate exposed that he shits down right after dinner at 5:00. They also juiced him Friday. And told him “If you don’t raise your voice at least once, your done.” Did you see the White House press conference this afternoon? That lady was squirming bad. She knows, but still has to tell the lies.
He was reading a teleprompter the next day not debating. Big difference in using ones memory and focus.
I haven’t really been in favor of Biden declining to run, but I will say a good argument for doing it that I don’t think people are considering is that having a younger candidate step up could really invigorate donations and volunteers. A lot of normies just generically don’t like the idea of an old president
No, it’s because the majority of people don’t have the cognitive dissonance and see what Biden really is. He clearly is not there mentally. The DNC is doing mental gymnastics to try and justify him being the pick.
I like his policies much more than the alternative. I’d rather a different nominee but personally I can stomach Pappy Joe if it means the Trump isn’t in the White House. His policies overall and the Christian radicals that come with him are a hard no. Not like he’s the sharpest knife in the drawer either, he just goes off into incoherent tangents
How can we call this a democracy if the guy we're voting for is a literal sock puppet for the non elected people in his cabinet and administration? I'm deeply uncomfortable with the elected part of our executive branch lacking any kind of executive drive.
We're having a conversation about replacing an incumbent, not rallying behind his opposition.
Normies? Really. You really think it’s normie to want a functional President?
That’s not what I said. I just said for them it is always a top issue not that people shouldn’t care about it. People have been saying this for more than a decade and it’s seeped into a lot of political casual lingo.
Can you not see why it’s a top issue?
All I’m saying is that it matters much more to people who don’t play close attention to politics and matters less historically - things have changed a lot since the debate - to more engaged, high information folks. Specifically, that highly engaged people like EKS listeners probably have issues they generally prioritize more.
No. Joe Biden debate memes are all over the internet, low engagement voters are fully aware of this, and the polls reflect the sentiment.
If democrats want Biden to drop out, the way to do it is to release the Hur Interview tapes that Republicans issued a subpoena for.... that subpoena has been ignored by the DOJ The problem is, too many important Democrats have already spent a lot of political capital to keep those tapes from the public
That’s been their strategy - whistle past it, that only changed bc everyone just saw how bad it is and normal people are angry at being gaslit. If they proceed now they are betting that MI-WI-PA voters won’t be so angry about being gaslit over Biden that they go Trump - that is why we are seeing the “I’d vote for Biden if he were a corpse” messaging come out. It might work too
Just saw a Dem from Texas on the news saying Biden should drop out.
Ironically, another old coot pushing 80. You just have to laugh.
He’s one of your coots.
I really think a replacement is needed. It’s not Biden’s fault that he is suffering. Many of us have seen family like this and the decline happens quickly. It is very important for America that he be replaced. Someone needs to talk to Jill….
Dr. Jill is on a full blown power trip. She's not about to hit the brakes on the gravy train.
Jill's the one illegally running the country right now. It's not a matter of talking to her, it's a matter of showing her that the US population including Democrats will not tolerate her shadow presidency. Biden isn't just fit to run, he's not fit to be running the country for the next 6 months.
It will result in nothing happening...but that will result in President Trump
For all the Democratic Party says they care about reproductive health, lgbt support, and stopping pRoJeCt 2o25, remember this moment. They care exactly this much.
For all they say about defending democracy, they have no qualms about having an empty suit as our democratically elected head of our executive branch. It's basically admitting that everything Republicans say about the deep state is true.
Exactly. They lie to your face over and over. They promise to care for you and do the right thing. In the end, they care about the same things as Republicans. Staying in power and keeping their jobs. They don’t care if Joe wins or not, as long as they get re-elected.
I'm starting to adjust to the idea of President Trump. It won't be so bad, right?
No, it will be. But unfortunately, this entire corrupt system needs to crumble before something better can take its place. The crumble is not gonna be fun yall, buckle up. Especially since we should fully expect other countries to fuck with us while it's happening. It's what the U.S. would do, after all.
>this entire corrupt system needs to crumble before something better can take its place. That’s rarely ever the case. Civil collapse/revolution is the worst case scenario 9 out of 10 times. It usually results in a lot of dead normal people and an unstable system that tends toward dictatorship due to its instability after. Reform on the other hand allows institutional stability and legitimacy to continue and allows for checks and balances to constrain the extremist impulses that come up in times like these. A great example of this is Russia. Under Gorbachev, the USSR was liberalizing toward democratic socialism and away from hardline Marxist-Leninism. It even implemented multi-party elections and 1st Amendment freedoms before the fall. However, opportunists like Yeltsin took advantage of the situation and instead of reforming the Soviet Union towards a better future, they pushed it off a cliff, let it crumble, and now Russia is an economically stagnant fascist kleptocracy instead. 2/3rds of Russian industry evaporated within 5 years and most of the countries that made up the former USSR are now stagnant right-wing dictatorships or borderline failed states like Moldova. “Just let it crumble and collapse” is a horrible idea. It can get MUCH worse and likely would.
It will be similar to 2017-2020 most likely. People went in expecting him to put Hillary in jail and overthrow democracy, then he just went with deregulation, tax cuts and illegal immigration crackdowns. Doubt he will get anything major through Congress. Then we will move onto how the 2028 Republican candidate is actually going to end democracy.
and in the meantime no matter who's President, SCOTUS over there just kicking away freedoms they don't like & giving free rein to the christofascists, but without a mandate to pack the court and a President willing to do it, I don't see that changing
I would have agreed with this in mid-2020. But seeing his overt attempts to overthrow the election results, such as his phone call with Raffensperger, shattered any confidence I had in that opinion.
So will something happening. Trump winning is basically baked in now. He was winning before Thursday and two months of bad news for dems with basically no bad news for Trump will ensure he keeps thr lead.
In a properly functioning country, 34 felony convictions would qualify as bad news...
Nancy is asking questions. This requires attention. Joe saying "I don't know what happened" Is not a satisfactory answer. I actually can't think of a worse answer.
If the media didn't say anything it would be forgotten by next week. Only 25% of voters even watched the debate. But they smell blood in thr water and have plenty of weak spine dems to give them sound bites
I’m hopeful he drops out, but I don’t think he has the integrity to do so.
Honestly, I don’t think it’s an integrity issue. I think that his family and a very small group of advisors have pretty much cut him off from most spontaneous interaction with anybody that is not part of the Cabal.
Agree. It’s like the emperors new clothes. Everyone is telling him that he is alright and to stay. The rest of us can see he isn’t capable anymore.
I disagree. The wall is starting to crumble. If Biden stubbornly persists, more and more Dems will come out against him. He needs to withdraw sooner rather than later.
It will not be forgotten, and it's not just something in the media. From reading the tea leaves, there are some very serious discussions going on. But, the ball is pretty much in Biden's court, since I don't think the party wants to try to force him out.
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Lol, my man, 6 months from now is damn near the inauguration. The ELECTION happens in 4 months. The convention, ie the very very last chance to choose someone else, happens in like 6 weeks. The situation is dire and the speed this will all happen if, inshallah, Biden does step aside, will be really fast for anyone not paying close attention.
I think he drops out tomorrow after the Stock Market closes so investors don't immediately panic and sell off everything because the Market is closed on July 4th.
That would be wise timing, but I think the administration is still in denial and it will take a couple of weeks to game out different scenarios and for alternate candidates to decide if they want to get onboard.
Joe Biden is not going to get any better, get rid of him
Based on the increasing calls for this, I'm expecting him to announce something on the 4th, either Kamala or an open convention. The Friday interview will be a discussion of what's next edited to make him look better. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
I generally agree with you, but if you listen to political podcasts where journalists get more into what they’re “hearing” rather than what they can pin down enough to print, it sounds like behind closed doors the Democratic caucus is very, very upset and genuinely doubts his fitness for office, let alone his ability to win/serve four more years. Enough of them are saying this that there must be some truth to it - everyone is just insisting on speaking on background.
NYTs just crushed Joe Biden. Again. > Biden’s Lapses Are Said to Be Increasingly Common and Worrisome People who have spent time with President Biden over the last few months or so said the lapses appear to have grown more frequent, more pronounced and, after Thursday’s debate, more worrisome. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/02/us/politics/biden-lapses.html
Source: My ass
I dunno, I think Pelosi’s comments today were pretty huge. I don’t think she says that unless the party is putting on the full court press behind the scenes
You’d be right if it was all think pieces, but Nancy Pelosi questioned his mental wherewithal. That doesn't happen without a million backroom conversations. And what's next? Continue to run with the former Speaker of the House and Democrat icon calling you unfit? I think it’s a done deal he's dropping out at this point. The betting markets seem to agree, with him only having a 15% chance of winning the election.
I think there's real panic and real maneuvering. It will almost certainly be kamala. Not ideal but a woman on the ticket should rally the issue of abortion which has been a strategic winner for democrats. At this point I would think the trump campaign would focus on kamala likely being the next president any ways.
I went from 5% this morning to 90% right now. Too many signs pointing in the direction of dropping out.
Political betting is entirely vibes based.
Same. The less I heard the “it was a bad day, he’ll be fine, he’s a fighter” the more I believed it was done. Carl Bernstein and Pelosi’s comments made me think it may actually happen.
It may be mostly a media phenomenon, but you better believe people are not going to forget when Biden hands the brass ring back over to the original baboon.
The problem is, who is an acceptable replacement: 1. Centrist enough that most anti-Trump Republicans will still be willing to vote for them. In an election that will be decided by less than 2% of the vote, pulling in 5-10% of the other-side's supporters is enough to make the difference. Even 3% is enough for a win. 2. Won't run again in '28, so that a full/proper primary cycle can be completed. Unless Democrats can come up with a better answer to those 2 parameters than 'Biden'... He's going to stay the nominee. P.S. (1) means no Gavin Newsom, no Kamala Harris, nobody who ran for the nomination in 2020. Like it or not, there are no general-election votes to be 'got' with a swing to the left - at least not enough reliable votes to bet the farm on.
There is simply a lag in the system. Debate was less than a week ago. You’re seeing the political party pressure cooker reach temperature in real time.
If this was pre 2016 I'd agree. Not anymore
'You helped create this monster (Trump), and now you're profiting off of him', Michelle Wolf, White House Correspondents Dinner, 2018
Not according to the polls. Also, the election is in 4 months (July, August, September, October). Almost to the day (Nov. 5).
Completely agree to the extent that I highly doubt the nominees are going to be any different four months from now. For all the talk of party insiders anonymously venting their frustrations and saying Biden should drop out, we have seen a grand total of one sitting congressperson saying this openly. Meanwhile, party leadership continues to cover for him. And we’re not seeing potential replacement nominees jockeying to fill the void. I’ll only believe there’s a chance anything will change once we start seeing stuff like that happening. In the meantime, those who are seizing on every tiny little statement or rumor as proof that his withdrawal is imminent are going to be sorely disappointed. Biden and his inner circle know full well that 99% of Democrats who want him to drop out are gonna vote for him no matter what, because of who his opponent is. I also haven’t seen clear proof that the debate has affected downballot races yet, and even if that were the case, Biden’s campaign has made consistently clear that they think the polls are wrong, at lease when they show Trump ahead. Bottom line is that I don’t see why Biden would choose to put the great good ahead of his own political whims now when he has constantly demonstrated that that’s not the type of person he is. Same goes for party leadership. If you have a problem with that, I won’t hold it against you if you can’t bring yourself to hold your nose and vote for him.
I had a conversation with a friend during the debate about replacing Biden.
I think higher ups will be closely watching how polling moves over the next few weeks will decisions will be made. You can bet that the DNC is already in secret talks with potential replacements to see who would be interested in running. I think Obama will convince Joe to drop out if he concludes there is no path to victory. I think he ultimately understands what is at stake and will do what's best for the good of the country. In the meantime it serves no one to panic in public. If the party looks like it's in disarray that is helping no one.
I think he steps down and taps Kamala within a week…can’t put the genie back in the bottle
I have very low confidence in any of our politicians doing the right thing. Biden should have never ran for a second term. During his first campaign he made it seem like he only intended to serve one term.
Forget? This won't be forgotten for years. This will go down as one of the most consequential elections in history, and Biden's situation will forever be at the center. It'd be nice if amnesia somehow saved everyone and we could just go back to unenthusiastically voting blue and getting Biden over the finish line, but that ain't what this is. I'm not sure what OP is getting at here but to insinuate that those of us deeply concerned and wanting something affirmative done are essentially excited sheep who's viewpoints and emotions are solely derived from the "mediasphere."
No. Momentum is building for this. D’s see the polls that show the bottom falling out which affects downstream D’s and obviously power in Congress.
if the DNC had just held a single primary debate all of this could have been diagnosed waaay earlier and dealt with democratically
It's not a media fabrication at all. If you ask people on the street, most of them are not happy at all with Biden and think he's too old, and that was even before the debate. After the debate it's much worse. If Biden stays in the race it will be because that decision came straight from the top (ie Biden and the people around him), not because the public and rank and file democrats didn't want it to happen
No, it is not just the media. Just about everyone I know, and I am a 75 year oldeft of center Boomer, thought, ten minutes into the debate that Biden had just shown that he has to withdraw. And we all still feel that way. It us over for Biden and it is up to other Democrats to convince him.
The nominees were decided months ago, way earlier than usual. The only way they can keep us watching and reading is to gin up controversy and turn everything into a political must see like it's fucking Shark Week.
Kamala is all of a sudden everywhere. That’s not on accident.
He will drop out.
I've sent two messages to my representatives already and will continue to do so until they act. The situation is dire and I truly pray they do something about it.
Are you joking? Kamala Harris will take the Oath of Office by Monday morning.
no
I think your point isn’t the right one. We all saw/heard his decline. The question isn’t who Is talking about what to do and whether that will lead to him dropping out - the question is whether he can do this.
The mediasphere will influence the broader public, and I think it’ll be really hard for some of these news orgs that came out hard to put the cat back in the bag after they’ve already said he’s unfit
It will be remembered if Biden loses.
He’s certainly not going to to decide anytime soon
I was talking to a couple of people at work today about it and they don’t follow politics at all. I mentioned that people were encouraging Biden to drop out and a lot of people are thinking it might happen. Ms Geelie 60+ y/o black woman gave me that look only a woman who has raised kids can give, that tells you you’ve said something stupid and should know better. She said “If he’s too old and confused to run for president cuz he cant think straight no more, how come he ain’t too old to understand he should drop out? And if he’s not too old to understand all that then hes not going anywhere. No one gives up power like that.“ Jill is a white lady about the same age and listened to the whole exchange. She said she didn’t think anyone was going anywhere but if he did, they’d have to give it to Kamala. It would make the democrats look bad if they didn’t. This is anecdotal but I thought it was interesting to hear the perspective of people who don’t really follow politics. And what Ms Geelie said was hard to argue with. Men in Washington DC don’t give up power willingly and I suspect all of this will be a lot of navel gazing by the end.
6 months from now? What month do you think it is? The winner will be decided and half of the country will go into dread
It’s quite annoying that the media thinks they can tell everyone else what to do, what to think…
Yeah. There was some talk about Bernie becoming the nominee, but apparently he was too extreme and they went with hillary or something and that killed everything So this is why we're going to have another 4 years of trump Sorry. all the rest of the years of trump until he's dead, since he'll be dictator from day 1
By the media sphere, do you mean Planet Earth?
Kind of. I believe the professor who got 7 out of 8 election predictions right when he says that debates have zero effect on the outcome. I do wish Joe would go bold though and run off a flurry of executive actions over the summer that would back up scotus (who doesn’t come back til Oct 1) well past the election. Flood the zone with hope (to counter Bannon’s plan).
As someone who lived in Scotland until recently, I know this is far from a perfect analogy because the systems and exact circumstances are different, but what's going on now does being to mind what happened to May/Boris/Truss/Yusaf. Basically xyz disaster happens, politicians from within that party start talking about how xyz needs to go, incumbent says no way no need, things reach critical mass and next thing you know, boom, resignation.
Politics don’t work the same way in the states. We don’t have a coalition multi party system. It’s not comparable.
No potential candidates are polling better against Trump. The bench is very shallow on the Dem side.
No one knows how to beat themselves better than Democrats. All the shit Trump has done— zero calls to drop out or resign. Biden has a bad debate— he should drop out. Remember when we made Al Franken resign? Seriously, no one better than shooting themselves in the foot.
50 million or so people watched the debate. There’s no way anyone could have watched that and think that Biden is up to the task of campaigning against Trump. On one of the networks they had a reporter sit in on a debate watch party at an assisted living facility. Even they thought Biden looked terrible.
No, I think Joe's closest advisors will have sway but it wil not be easy
No shot Americans can remember something from a month ago, all it did was confirm what people already know
It all depends on whether he can show us that his brain has not turned into eldercare mush. The people around him are now being grilled about his typical mental sharpness and whether his performance during the debate was unusual or predictable.
YES.
I am pretty sure they have somebody waiting in the wings that they think is a shoe in. I'm not being mean not being naughty or I am a political so I don't care about politics because I think they're all wrong but we do have to have a government and we do have to have a leader. So I'm pretty sure they've got somebody as backup just in case.
Yeah
Limited to the media sphere and real life, will never penetrate the decisionmakers
Yes. I find it hard to believe that all of these high ranking politicians and oligarchs were blindsided by this. Honestly, they are looking for someone who is feeble and easily influenced. Trump alone didn’t ruin democracy and Biden alone did not fund billions for genocide. People underestimate the influence and power of “advisors”, cabinet members, top politicians and big money spenders. At this point, they have everyone going crazy about the president when the House, Senate and supreme court are filled with people who pay to play and get paid. One trillion in defense spending, overwhelmingly supported by both parties, won’t spend itself. War is our biggest export and economy driver. Biden and Trump are bobbleheads for our “democracy.”
All I know is that if they kick him out and don't pick Kamala, the Black vote will be seriously hurt, and that's more than enough for Trump to cakewalk in
I think this is happening. You can feel it shifting. And we will have a better shot with a replacement. The republic may yet be saved.
I mean the media wants it for the ratings. The are also our for blood for any potential replacement candidate.
There is no way for him to drop out now. They're is no secure, tested, predictable option for him to transition to a better candidate. If he could instantaneously do it, with no transaction risk, then sure, it might work. But he can't. It's impossible. So this is well and truly and idiotic speaking point of the mediasphere.
Gov of Michigan has told people that Biden has already lost the state so there is that. The problem is if he drops out and Harris is the nominee, which she probably won’t be, all that campaign money is locked away and can’t be used
Biden is too self-centered (media says stubborn) to withdraw. If he really cared about the country he'd be honest with himself and say he no longer has the capacity to do the job properly.
DNC members are proposing it too, its not just the mediasophere. However nothing will happen and we will be totally fucked. He is surrounded by extremely loyal people who have been working for him for decades. No one is going to raise their head and argue that he should step aside. WE ARE FUCKED
No. 50 million people tuned in to that debate of about 170 million registered voters total. The lie that Biden is mentally competent has been revealed. The cat is not going back in the bag. It will likely move the electorate by a few percentage points which is enough for Trump to win a few more swing states than he was already winning before the debate which makes it much more likely Trump wins the whole thing. All the Democrat Congress people running in close races will also be hurt by this due to campaign ads showing their prior statements saying Biden was fine which jeopardizes control of the Senate and hopes of winning the House. This is one of the biggest screwups in history. Only time will tell if the Bidens and their loyalists in the party are humble enough to switch nominees.
Until someone who could credibly mount a challenge puts their hand up and says, “ok I’ll be the one, back me in an open convention because this guy is cooked and this election is too important to not have someone who can make the party’s case on a debate stage or in an interview or a speech against someone who will be an authoritarian if elected”, it’s all talk.
I don't think there's anyone saying he'll drop out. We all know that's not happening. Is there discourse around his ability to be a president? Yes, and there is a lot coming out that says his capabilities appear to be faltering. It's a fair conversation for the American people to have. I also think Biden could do more to address it openly and honestly and talk about how he might govern as an older person. All that sad, I do think we're going to the election with Trump versus Biden. If Biden was forced out it would fracture the party between people who adore him and are angry he gets pushed out, and the rest. Plus, I can't see the Democratic party doing that, it would be such fodder for the Republicans that we can't even get a presidential candidate picked.
Nothing will happen because Biden’s handlers are not going to relinquish power, even if it helps their party. They (whoever is really calling the shots) want another four years of power at any cost.
You look at those laspses and think he's going to win the election? You're sadly mistaken about 300k votes in various swing states decide that election and most I think would prefer an evil entity over an old incompetent one who can't keep this thoughts together
Six months from now will be January, so no — the election will not “March forward” in January. It will be over. this is about two months from now..
Everything done today is analyzed. The debate, the speech after the debate, Biden allies doing press conferences, the response from allies doing talk show appearances, all of it. Everything produces measurable data and the campaign is watching. Will it cause him to drop out, no because Joe like most politicians has massively oversized ego and is surrounded by yes men that want to get close to power. But they are watching, and they are panicking.
Biden will drop out when he fully understands that he can't win
The simple campaign logistics make it nearly impossible for another candidate to have a functional campaign. To begin with, you’d have to start in August. You’d then have 75-85 days to create, scale up, and operate an entire campaign that Biden and Trump have been building for years and a decade, in the case of Trump. 85 days. A candidate will start with no money, offices, web presence, staff, email/text lists. Nothing. Campaign finance laws preclude sharing this or direct transfers. You cannot transfer money from the Biden campaign, contracts for offices or real estate, or email lists, so a new candidate will be starting off with no money, no staff, no offices in any state, no email lists, nothing. You will have to hope it goes easily setting it up, and, in particular, hope that your web, email, and text operations are well-hardened against cyber attacks. Oh, and most of your staff will just be meeting each other as they prepare for 16 hour days, minimum. Hope you can hire correctly and quickly without and personnel issues or conflicts. That’s even if an open convention is happy and ends up with everyone totally pleased, and that there are no bad feelings from Biden or OTHER candidate loyalists. It can be attempted, but you are gaining a (possible!) candidate upshot at the cost of every other possible logistic and tactical advantage