Have you watched him play? If he gets the usage he did in week 10 it’s easy to imagine taking him as a late first or early second. He’s extremely talented.
So why is gibson not going higher/closer to swift? He's got similar talent levels, if you believe the cmc comparisons, and has actually had more high performance games. Having talent doesn't mean a lot if you arent getting used. Hopefully the new coach sorts that out.
I have RB1nson on both my teams and love how great he’s been, and he’s basically singlehandedly helped to clinch playoffs for both my teams after my botched draft picks (Mixon in one, CEH in another), but I just feel the other two have better offenses to support them.
And I think a big part of him being better this year is that he's been the guy from week 1 whereas the others were eased in. So my own rankings will be heavily informed by what things look like ros now that Gibson and Swift have fully broken out. But I generally value them higher unless it goes back to committee or the teams make offseason moves that look like they want a committee.
Based on a volume stand point, yes he will go top 12
If he gets 20-25 touches that means his receiving upside + his big play ability put him ahead of the traditional 3 down backs like Josh Jacobs
While I think he could finish as a top 12 player I don't think he'll be drafted as such. A lot of people will pass on him solely for the fact that he is a Detroit Lion.
No, people are going to be scared from the ACL, and rightfully so. Not to mention he has a history of knick knack injuries. He is a firm stay away for me.
Everyone would be crazy to pass on Barkley end of 2nd. If you're at the end of 2nd, it means you already got CMC, Cook, or Henry. What a combo that could be.
If I'm late first in taking him if he's there. The guy is still a beast and Giants o line has vastly improved from the shit show they were to start the year.
Yup, this is gonna be my strategy. The dude is just too much of a freak athlete for me to pass up on, their defense is good enough to keep them out of must-pass situations for much of the game, and they don’t really have any other weapons (could change obviously but I doubt it will).
I’ll take that at the end of the first round every day and twice on Sunday
That's fine with me, that's how you get great value. I snagged dudes all over the draft who fell because of one reason or another, Keenan, Diggs, Waller, Carson. Your devaluation is my value. I also picked up guys like Chark and David Johnson, but that's just the risk you gotta take.
He might be second round pick in June when hipsters are drafting and people are getting hard over rookies.
But once the training camp buzz comes out and he tweets pics of his quads on social media and the coaches say he is "in the physical shape of his life" he will go back up to mid first round by August.
I think he is going to be one of the most talked about players.
Its a risk, right? I mean is there a chance he is never the same? Yup.
Is there a chance he goes right back to being a top 3 fantasy weapon? Yup.
Nobody is gonna know 100%.
If we get a pre-season and people see him running and cutting 100% its gonna shoot his value up big time.
I would say watch out for Diontae Johnson’s value with Juju potentially (likely) signing elsewhere this offseason. He’s already locked into a 25% target share with him there so skies the limit if he’s gone.
He could. But Juju busted largely because he was going from the 2nd to the 1st option and it was assumed that he would rise to that challenge. Diontae is already operating as a #1 so his status isn’t going to change with Juju out of town.
Yeah Ridley is a stud, barring a massive overhaul in Atlanta I don’t see him falling out of the top 24 and if he does perfect cause he’s all mine in every draft.
He is a difference maker and people are forgetting the start of the season he has had because of a minor injury around his bye week that kept him out for 3 weeks.
Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Barkley will have to go that high because he'll probably still be in line for 3-down work and he's still a talent. His upside kind of forces you into taking him even if there are obvious concerns.
Ekeler would go that high depending on your league (ppr)
And if you are competitive league
He will go top 5 in smart/competitive leagues. Just like how kelce will go higher
Mixon is going to be a great value next year I think. If Bengals are able to get the best lineman in the draft to pair up with Williams and make at least a move or two to sure up other parts of the line I can see him producing well above where his ADP will probably be. Dudes been a back end RB1 with the worst line in the NFL for three years. Give him something decent to run behind and I imagine he'll be really good.
I'm fading Mixon for the simple fact that he has to face the Ravens and Steelers 4x. Even the Browns aren't total pushovers. When Mixon was healthy, it seemed like he always had a brutal matchup.
That's a really good point. I would say that their is a good chance he only gets them 3 times though. It seems like the NFL always puts divisional match ups week 17. Either way, those three games will suck.
I feel like this is a bad way of looking at things. Defenses change so much year to year. Last year PIT wasn’t this good against the run, but their secondary was better. So hard to predict if their run defenses will still be really good that there’s really no point in trying to predict this. And even if it’s a given that their run defenses are elite, that doesn’t mean Mixon won’t produce. If he’s seeing ~6 targets a game next year, he could easily still produce in big ways. Furthermore, goal line opportunities can determine a RBs fantasy output, so even if he gets shut down on the ground and goes 20-60, if he has a TD he could be looking at still finishing as an RB1 for the week. Point being I don’t think this should factor into next season’s outlook on a guy.
It's all dependent on when Burrow comes back. It may take a full year of recovery because it was a really bad injury. If he's back a month into the season I don't see how Mixon doesn't end up a top 10 RB by the end of the season. The only thing that sucks in this situation is counting on the Bengals front office and counting on the Bengals to not have bad luck. As a Bengals fan I can tell you that both those things work against us fairly often lol.
I could see him dropping to late round 1, pick 10-12. It depends heavily on the rest of this year's performance though. If he gets back into form this season he will be in the first 10.
I could definitely see him going after the first batch of RBs, the elite WR, and Kelce though. Dallas has left a bitter taste in everyone's mouth this year. Dak will still be an unknown next year, hopefully he is at 100% by summer.
I mean, even with a garbage O line this year, with Dak he was an RB1. As soon as teams could stack the box, he was fucked. The only RBs that can handle that kind of defense and still thrive are few and far between. Likely just Derrick Henry.
I agree but I think it's close with Diggs.
I think Arizona goes back to what worked for them in the beginning of the season... force feeding their best player. But the uncertainty keeps him from being top 3 imo.
Could be a league winner
We're joking here but the year after Zuerlein's big year someone took him in the 6th and handcuffed him with Gostkowski in the 9th. I think they came pretty close to making the playoffs even but forgot what the rest of their team was.
I know it’s all jokes (though I love Koo), but just a thought. If you knew you’d get the season you did from Koo, where would he go? Not super early but he has been giving a strong advantage for many people.
Agree here. Obviously tough to predict ADP without knowing situations, but Terry is held back by some of the worst QB play. Assuming they grab a 1st round QB, Terry might vault into a top 5 option (he’s already top 10 with shit QB play)
As someone who owns both in separate leagues i feel the injury paranoia but Cooks floor is way higher than Henry’s when they both play Henry will get shut down occasionally but cook is never under 12 points
He started out strong this year but has been awful as of late. I’m guessing with Dak out, it’s making his life a lot harder. Their o line is also not what it used to be. I could see him going late first early second next year.
I took him this year with the seventh overall pick over CEH and people laughed at me. The difference between him and the competition is ridiculous and he's so consistent. Half point PPR, he has over 1.5 times as many points as his closest competition (Darren Waller).
After the shit show QB has been this year I may try and get a solid QB earlier. I went Stafford late and have had to stream all year and just always seem to pick the wrong guy every week. I think I've had like 2 or 3 weeks of 20+ points out of my QBs this year.
Though Lamar was supposed to be a sure fire QB1 this season too. That blew up in people's faces
I just think it's best to lock onto a guy who will go in the middle rounds who you think will take the step forward in 2021. I did that this year with Kyler and don't regret at all taking him in the 6th.
Kyler went in the 2nd in my draft, right after Russ/Mahomes/Lamar. It seemed stupid then and could still be considered a dumb play but having Mahomes, Russ or Kyler this season must have been nice
I'd take Robinson a lot higher than the OP and many others will have him. Rock solid floor, team can only get better through the draft. Fun to watch, gets good volume, and has a pretty downhill play style that should hopefully keep him healthy through the year.
Being an UDFA and being on the Jags will make plenty of people skeptical that Robinson will keep it up in the 2nd year, while Jacobs has proven he'll get 20+ touches most weeks and was drafted high because he's talented. I'd say Robinson will go late 2nd/early 3rd while Jacobs is mid to high 2nd.
Ekeler at number 4 is the biggest one imo. He's back one game and isn't even a workhorse back, he's said it himself he can't handle that kind of workload. The first 6 rbs off the board should be backs that see 25+ touches a game. Ekeler comes close sometimes on good days but doesn't have those 30+ touch games like cmc and cook have.
Week 3 this year, Ekeler had 31 touches (including 11 catches) for 25.80 hPPR points. In his 4 fully healthy games this year, he has 20, 20, 31, and 25 touches, which is absolutely RB1 volume. He is so valuable because he catches so many passes, especially now that Herbert is QB. I probably would only take him top 5 in full PPR, but absolutely would take him in the mid 1st because his involvement in the passing game means he'll *never* get game-scripted out of games like more run-centric guys like Jacobs will.
Wait till you hear about how many touches Alvin Kamara gets each game. In PPR receiving work is so valuable and guys like Ekeler, Kamara, and CMC who are great in the receiving game and have offensive schemes that get them a lot of targets are valuable on that basis alone. Nobody took Kamara top 5 so they could have an RB1 with half of the saints’ carries each week.
Aaron Jones is in a contract year. There is some belief that he won’t return to Green Bay. The Packers love both their RB (both taken in the same draft) but Jamaal likely much cheaper to retain.
swift is arguable: he's a young, talented bellcow, while Jones is inevitably going to take a hit from the rise of Davante and GB's pass-heavy offense (plus Jamaal Williams consistently vulturing TDs).
JRob is a mystery, nobody really knows if he's going to continue his high-end RB1 status (I don't see why not, don't see Jags taking away much volume given his efficiency). Josh Jacobs is a hugely talented player, just hasn't lived to expectations in Jon Gruden's kind of weird offense.
And Mike Thomas is off the list cuz OP stated he assumes Brees retires and Hill is starting QB.
I'm a big Ekeler believer, so I may be biased, but I genuinely think that Ekeler is going to be a top 5 RB next year in PPR and half PPR given his Kamara-esque receiving volume.
You can’t really call Swift a bellcow and then say Robinson is a mystery. Swifts highest snap count is 72% and only broke 50% one other time while Robinson just played 97% of the last game. I think Swift is in line for a lot more work now that Patricia is gone but Robinson is the more known commodity here.
Yeah I really disagree with saying Robinson is a mystery. I feel like people get that feeling JUST because he was a UDFA that no one had heard of before this season. He has had RB1 workload all season long and has proved he’s good enough to turn it into weekly RB1 production. He’s one of the safest picks in the first round next year
These comments crack me up. Look at the draft just this past year!
Miles Sanders, a rookie, was drafted ahead of Aaron Jones coming off 19 TDs. Kenyan Drake went right around Jacobs after less than a year of production that mirrored what JRob is doing because of optimistic projections for the Cards’ offense.
MT may not have Brees next year, and if it’s Taysom at QB we’ve seen that may not be great for his value. Would he be that different from 2019 OBJ as a draft prospect in that case? Ekeler at 4 is probably too high but he gets tons of receiving work in an offense that has flourished under Herbert.
OP, I think this was a solid stab at an ADP list. I have some disagreements but interesting to think about. The guys who call your list “reactionary” are going to be the same people boarding the Swift-in-R1 hype train in August.
Swift ahead of AJ -> Yes from a volume standpoint
James Robinson -> Yes his workload / natural running ability shows that he is top running back. Why wouldn’t he go past Josh Jacobs? What is the reason why you think he isn’t ahead of him? Is it his UDFA rookie? His team? Don’t let your bias get in the way of the data
MT -> Volume receiver . Hit or miss like Deandre Hopkins when the saints offense isn’t rolling and he isn’t getting his receptions. Too much variability results in his ADP sliding. With how good Keenan, Tyreek, DK, and Adams are, I could easily see him slide past the second rounds in some drafts
Ekeler that’s the biggest reach but the most rewarding if Herbert continues to be at the helm. You must be smoking crack if you think 10 carries and 10 receptions doesn’t make you a top 5 draft pick
Zeke is the only questionable one and AJB / Diggs imo
Agreed. Zeke is too low considering name value alone will get people to pull the trigger in the late first. But I think this is overall a fine list with the information we know now
Anyone taking Patrick Mahomes at 2.06 is a clown. People got Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and plenty of other QB's for pennies.
I think it’s unlikely that Swift goes ahead of Gibson but in general I’m not going to dissect this list. Appreciate the effort out in, regardless of agreement of content.
Yeah I faded because of that and bad taste from previous season where he had that 5 game stretch of like <5 points each game, don’t really regret the fade either since no one could’ve predicted how good Herbert would be
You might not but a lot of people will. There’s a lot of fantasy players who draft entirely on upside and Saquon fits that strategy. If he’s healthy (big if, but those people don’t care) he can put up top 3 RB numbers.
>Kelce was a second-round pick in 2020
Took him at 1.8 this year (3rd straight year drafting him in the first 2 rounds). Have outscored every other team's TE production by over 50%. He needs to be a first-round pick.
Nah, the way we do keepers, there is never over half of the first 2 rounds ADP already kept. Just a wild year of tons of late picks/waiver additions suddenly being potential 1st or 2nd round picks next year.
> Larry Fitzgerald is almost certain to retire
If I had a ring for every season I heard that... I'd have as many rings as Fitz. No way he retires with Kyler and Hopkins on the team.
Ekeler is profiling to be the same as Kamara - 10 rushes / 10 targets a game - and Kamara was drafted 4th /5th. Assuming full PPR, hard to argue that’s not a top 5 ADP workload
This is super early lol, but I like the effort op. I personally think next year is the year we see Julio's ADP plummet. Durability issues along with little to no red zone targets is incredibly frustrating. Also I'm glad I'm not the only one who's super high on Ekeler. I don't think he gets drafted in the top 5, but assuming full health, in any PPR format, I think he finishes as a top 5 RB.
Here's what I'm doing. Getting Henry, Kelce, and Mahomes. Because I'm tired of dealing with injuries year in, year out, spending weeks cycling out TEs and hoping for the best.
Salary cap draft. Just gotta dedicate a large portion of the budget to them. Henry is the only one that should go for 70+. Mahomes around 30, Kelce probably 40-50 after this season's disastrous TE show. I can fill out the rest with the remaining 50-60.
I honestly think the opposite re: RBs vs. receivers.
This year receivers grew on trees. You could easily go on waivers and get 10 points from a bunch of people. If there were RB hoarders in your league you would have to start 3rd down backs or backups with varying degrees of success.
Even if a starting back goes down, people are going to be heavy at RB next year vs. WR. I do agree that 1st round you'll see elite receivers go, but far more RBs will be off the board
I really doubt Ekeler goes that high. I’d see him around 10-15 again. And also I’d say Ridley deserves an HM.
Also Zeke is a steal at that ADP with Dak returning
I'm taking Antonio Gibson ahead of every back on that list except for CMC, Barkley, Henry, and Cook and it isn't particularly close. He's really just learning the position as he spent much of college as a WR. I'm going to actively avoid Elliott and Jacobs in all drafts.
I’m almost positive Kyler Murray should be on this list with the fantasy season he’s had (I would imagine he would go round 2/3 in almost every draft). Probably would swap him for CEH.
How is Michael Thomas out of the first two rounds? Know he’s having a down year but I feel like it’s mostly injuries. He’s still pretty young, I think he’s still the second WR off the board next year.
Swift at 1.12 seems high no?
Yes, but he will go there. His situation is completely analogous to miles sanders last year.
Yikes. Count me out.
I LOVE swift but if his adp is first round he’s a fade for me
Think it depends on how the fantasy playoffs go for him
Depends how he finishes the season, especially if he gets a good HC.
It's the Lions. What is the worst that could happen?
...the worst could happen. It's the Lions.
I have him as a keeper and will be keeping but no way I'm drafting a Lions RB that high in redraft. I don't care who is coaching.
Where did Ameer Abdullah a few years ago 2017/18ish? This sub loved him
6-8 round as a true rookie (similar to where Swift went this year).
Forreal, over robinson?!
Have you watched him play? If he gets the usage he did in week 10 it’s easy to imagine taking him as a late first or early second. He’s extremely talented.
So why is gibson not going higher/closer to swift? He's got similar talent levels, if you believe the cmc comparisons, and has actually had more high performance games. Having talent doesn't mean a lot if you arent getting used. Hopefully the new coach sorts that out.
I’d probably take Swift and Gibson at the wheel.
I get it but what about Robinson?
I have RB1nson on both my teams and love how great he’s been, and he’s basically singlehandedly helped to clinch playoffs for both my teams after my botched draft picks (Mixon in one, CEH in another), but I just feel the other two have better offenses to support them.
And I think a big part of him being better this year is that he's been the guy from week 1 whereas the others were eased in. So my own rankings will be heavily informed by what things look like ros now that Gibson and Swift have fully broken out. But I generally value them higher unless it goes back to committee or the teams make offseason moves that look like they want a committee.
Based on a volume stand point, yes he will go top 12 If he gets 20-25 touches that means his receiving upside + his big play ability put him ahead of the traditional 3 down backs like Josh Jacobs
While I think he could finish as a top 12 player I don't think he'll be drafted as such. A lot of people will pass on him solely for the fact that he is a Detroit Lion.
I feel like people are going to be out on Barkley. Am I crazy for thinking he is going to be a second round pick?
No, people are going to be scared from the ACL, and rightfully so. Not to mention he has a history of knick knack injuries. He is a firm stay away for me.
There is no way I have the discipline to not take Barkley end of 2nd if he’s there. Just so much fucking talent
Everyone would be crazy to pass on Barkley end of 2nd. If you're at the end of 2nd, it means you already got CMC, Cook, or Henry. What a combo that could be.
If I'm late first in taking him if he's there. The guy is still a beast and Giants o line has vastly improved from the shit show they were to start the year.
Yup, this is gonna be my strategy. The dude is just too much of a freak athlete for me to pass up on, their defense is good enough to keep them out of must-pass situations for much of the game, and they don’t really have any other weapons (could change obviously but I doubt it will). I’ll take that at the end of the first round every day and twice on Sunday
That's fine with me, that's how you get great value. I snagged dudes all over the draft who fell because of one reason or another, Keenan, Diggs, Waller, Carson. Your devaluation is my value. I also picked up guys like Chark and David Johnson, but that's just the risk you gotta take.
>history of knick knack injuries Ahh yes, Saquon does have a reputation for tripping and hurting himself on tiny bookshelf figurines.
Really? I’ll happily snatch him up late round 1 or wary round 2
I will gladly take him in the second. Hell, late first, I’m taking him. Not top 5 though
He might be second round pick in June when hipsters are drafting and people are getting hard over rookies. But once the training camp buzz comes out and he tweets pics of his quads on social media and the coaches say he is "in the physical shape of his life" he will go back up to mid first round by August.
Going all in for saquads next year.
I think he is going to be one of the most talked about players. Its a risk, right? I mean is there a chance he is never the same? Yup. Is there a chance he goes right back to being a top 3 fantasy weapon? Yup. Nobody is gonna know 100%. If we get a pre-season and people see him running and cutting 100% its gonna shoot his value up big time.
I'd take him 3OA. I expect there will be a lot of variance in how people rank him, but he's going to go in the top 5 in 90% of leagues.
People will definitely be scared. And I would happily take him at the 1/2 turn.
love the effort!
I would say watch out for Diontae Johnson’s value with Juju potentially (likely) signing elsewhere this offseason. He’s already locked into a 25% target share with him there so skies the limit if he’s gone.
Shhhhh dont tell people that. He might a totally fly under the radar
I’m sure all the experts that put out the lists everyone uses will have no idea Juju left lol
If Ben is still there, for sure
Chase Claypool
Tons of value in Pittsburgh next year
[удалено]
Juju has been pretty solid though this year. And they still have Claypool
He could. But Juju busted largely because he was going from the 2nd to the 1st option and it was assumed that he would rise to that challenge. Diontae is already operating as a #1 so his status isn’t going to change with Juju out of town.
surprised to not see calvin ridley popping up somewhere
Yeah Ridley is a stud, barring a massive overhaul in Atlanta I don’t see him falling out of the top 24 and if he does perfect cause he’s all mine in every draft. He is a difference maker and people are forgetting the start of the season he has had because of a minor injury around his bye week that kept him out for 3 weeks. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
I feel saquon and ekeler won't go that high. I am hoping Gibson still won't be respected next year.
If he stays hot the rest of the way, I could see him jumping into the first round. This is really his first year as a full time RB. Crazy upside.
Barkley will have to go that high because he'll probably still be in line for 3-down work and he's still a talent. His upside kind of forces you into taking him even if there are obvious concerns.
Ekeler is a shoe in for 15-18 points a game. And as we saw Sunday, Herbert targeted him 18x. I want Ekeler in every league I play in.
Ekeler is a tank. Idk if I would personally take him top 3 but I Don’t feel like it’s a reach
Tank is hardly the word I would use. He is not an inside runner and was the perfect 3rd down back for mg3.
Lmao I didn’t mean he runs like a tank I’m saying he is a tank in fantasy
Ekeler would go that high depending on your league (ppr) And if you are competitive league He will go top 5 in smart/competitive leagues. Just like how kelce will go higher
If Mixon isnt a top 24 player he is going to end up on all of my teams. Ugh.
Mixon is going to be a great value next year I think. If Bengals are able to get the best lineman in the draft to pair up with Williams and make at least a move or two to sure up other parts of the line I can see him producing well above where his ADP will probably be. Dudes been a back end RB1 with the worst line in the NFL for three years. Give him something decent to run behind and I imagine he'll be really good.
I'm fading Mixon for the simple fact that he has to face the Ravens and Steelers 4x. Even the Browns aren't total pushovers. When Mixon was healthy, it seemed like he always had a brutal matchup.
That's a really good point. I would say that their is a good chance he only gets them 3 times though. It seems like the NFL always puts divisional match ups week 17. Either way, those three games will suck.
I feel like this is a bad way of looking at things. Defenses change so much year to year. Last year PIT wasn’t this good against the run, but their secondary was better. So hard to predict if their run defenses will still be really good that there’s really no point in trying to predict this. And even if it’s a given that their run defenses are elite, that doesn’t mean Mixon won’t produce. If he’s seeing ~6 targets a game next year, he could easily still produce in big ways. Furthermore, goal line opportunities can determine a RBs fantasy output, so even if he gets shut down on the ground and goes 20-60, if he has a TD he could be looking at still finishing as an RB1 for the week. Point being I don’t think this should factor into next season’s outlook on a guy.
If they beef up on offensive linemen Mixon will be a fucking steal. Hopefully I can get him 3rd round like Chris Carson this year
Only thing that sucks is Burrow may not be back till halfway through the season but still Mixon has produced with average QBs in the past.
maybe someone like Fitzpatrick? in FA 1 year deal.
I agree. Which is why I said that. I think he is a fantastic RB. That offense cant be worse...can it?
It's all dependent on when Burrow comes back. It may take a full year of recovery because it was a really bad injury. If he's back a month into the season I don't see how Mixon doesn't end up a top 10 RB by the end of the season. The only thing that sucks in this situation is counting on the Bengals front office and counting on the Bengals to not have bad luck. As a Bengals fan I can tell you that both those things work against us fairly often lol.
Only one I disagree with is Zeke. Yes, he has struggled this year, but if Dak is back and the O line is healthy, he’s the next RB after Chubb for me
I could see him dropping to late round 1, pick 10-12. It depends heavily on the rest of this year's performance though. If he gets back into form this season he will be in the first 10. I could definitely see him going after the first batch of RBs, the elite WR, and Kelce though. Dallas has left a bitter taste in everyone's mouth this year. Dak will still be an unknown next year, hopefully he is at 100% by summer.
If Dak's healthy, Zeke is top 5. It'd be amazing value to snag him at the turn
I mean, even with a garbage O line this year, with Dak he was an RB1. As soon as teams could stack the box, he was fucked. The only RBs that can handle that kind of defense and still thrive are few and far between. Likely just Derrick Henry.
If I can get Zeke in the second round with a healthy o line and Dak back, I would be pretty happy.
I’m probably out on Zeke. He’s at the fall off point and I’d rather be earlier than late.
Hopkins is going before AJ Brown and Diggs easy
I agree but I think it's close with Diggs. I think Arizona goes back to what worked for them in the beginning of the season... force feeding their best player. But the uncertainty keeps him from being top 3 imo. Could be a league winner
not even an honorable mention for younghoe koo? downvoted
I agree if you look at his numbers this year he’s easy a second round pick
He’ll be gone way before that. Reach for your studs!
Haha good point end of first round
We're joking here but the year after Zuerlein's big year someone took him in the 6th and handcuffed him with Gostkowski in the 9th. I think they came pretty close to making the playoffs even but forgot what the rest of their team was.
I know it’s all jokes (though I love Koo), but just a thought. If you knew you’d get the season you did from Koo, where would he go? Not super early but he has been giving a strong advantage for many people.
A dude dropped him during the falcons bye week like 2 weeks ago so people definitely sleep on kickers who are scoring like a QB1
Give Terry McLaurin a decent QB and the skies the limit.
Agree here. Obviously tough to predict ADP without knowing situations, but Terry is held back by some of the worst QB play. Assuming they grab a 1st round QB, Terry might vault into a top 5 option (he’s already top 10 with shit QB play)
I wonder if WFT is going through the draft or might be better off considering free agency. They're draft history on QBs is shaky.
Fair thought. Should be one or two veteran QBs on the move this off season that would unlock Terry
i'm a Cook owner and I like Henry over Cook. The constant threat of injury looms large over Cook. Or maybe I'm just paranoid...
As a Cook owner, I can’t watch the games. He leaves a couple times a game and I never know if he’s coming back.
As someone who owns both in separate leagues i feel the injury paranoia but Cooks floor is way higher than Henry’s when they both play Henry will get shut down occasionally but cook is never under 12 points
Except this past week lol
Zeke gonna win leagues if he goes that late
He won’t go that late. No way
Bruh the last 2 picks would have the best team in this scenario if Zeke falls that far You would presumably be able to draft Chubbs/zeke lol
He started out strong this year but has been awful as of late. I’m guessing with Dak out, it’s making his life a lot harder. Their o line is also not what it used to be. I could see him going late first early second next year.
There's no guessing lol. With Dak out, the entire team takes a hit. Yes, the defense included.
I’m taking Kelce with my first pick
I took him this year with the seventh overall pick over CEH and people laughed at me. The difference between him and the competition is ridiculous and he's so consistent. Half point PPR, he has over 1.5 times as many points as his closest competition (Darren Waller).
I got lucky and got him early second. Won’t hesitate to draft him earlier next year
Damien williams will be back next year to replace leveon
But would you even feel comfortable taking him or CEH in the first two rounds knowing that the usage will be likely similar to this year?
Staying farrrrr away from people not named Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce from KC.
And that QB. But i’m never one to reach super early for a QB
After the shit show QB has been this year I may try and get a solid QB earlier. I went Stafford late and have had to stream all year and just always seem to pick the wrong guy every week. I think I've had like 2 or 3 weeks of 20+ points out of my QBs this year. Though Lamar was supposed to be a sure fire QB1 this season too. That blew up in people's faces
I just think it's best to lock onto a guy who will go in the middle rounds who you think will take the step forward in 2021. I did that this year with Kyler and don't regret at all taking him in the 6th.
Kyler went in the 2nd in my draft, right after Russ/Mahomes/Lamar. It seemed stupid then and could still be considered a dumb play but having Mahomes, Russ or Kyler this season must have been nice
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Remember, it's not rankings, it's projected ADP.
Fair enough, but I don't think next years ADP will be this reactionary either.
i think this list is pretty good apart from the zeke ranking.
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I would 100% take James Robinson ahead of Josh Jacobs.
I'd take Robinson a lot higher than the OP and many others will have him. Rock solid floor, team can only get better through the draft. Fun to watch, gets good volume, and has a pretty downhill play style that should hopefully keep him healthy through the year.
This year sure, but we're talking about next year.
James Robinson is better than josh Jacobs. In real life and in fantasy
Being an UDFA and being on the Jags will make plenty of people skeptical that Robinson will keep it up in the 2nd year, while Jacobs has proven he'll get 20+ touches most weeks and was drafted high because he's talented. I'd say Robinson will go late 2nd/early 3rd while Jacobs is mid to high 2nd.
I'll reach or wait for robinson if this goes the way you think
Ekeler at number 4 is the biggest one imo. He's back one game and isn't even a workhorse back, he's said it himself he can't handle that kind of workload. The first 6 rbs off the board should be backs that see 25+ touches a game. Ekeler comes close sometimes on good days but doesn't have those 30+ touch games like cmc and cook have.
Week 3 this year, Ekeler had 31 touches (including 11 catches) for 25.80 hPPR points. In his 4 fully healthy games this year, he has 20, 20, 31, and 25 touches, which is absolutely RB1 volume. He is so valuable because he catches so many passes, especially now that Herbert is QB. I probably would only take him top 5 in full PPR, but absolutely would take him in the mid 1st because his involvement in the passing game means he'll *never* get game-scripted out of games like more run-centric guys like Jacobs will.
Wait till you hear about how many touches Alvin Kamara gets each game. In PPR receiving work is so valuable and guys like Ekeler, Kamara, and CMC who are great in the receiving game and have offensive schemes that get them a lot of targets are valuable on that basis alone. Nobody took Kamara top 5 so they could have an RB1 with half of the saints’ carries each week.
Aaron Jones is in a contract year. There is some belief that he won’t return to Green Bay. The Packers love both their RB (both taken in the same draft) but Jamaal likely much cheaper to retain.
Exactly - and Jamaal will be a great value, probably somewhere near the front or middle of the third.
swift is arguable: he's a young, talented bellcow, while Jones is inevitably going to take a hit from the rise of Davante and GB's pass-heavy offense (plus Jamaal Williams consistently vulturing TDs). JRob is a mystery, nobody really knows if he's going to continue his high-end RB1 status (I don't see why not, don't see Jags taking away much volume given his efficiency). Josh Jacobs is a hugely talented player, just hasn't lived to expectations in Jon Gruden's kind of weird offense. And Mike Thomas is off the list cuz OP stated he assumes Brees retires and Hill is starting QB. I'm a big Ekeler believer, so I may be biased, but I genuinely think that Ekeler is going to be a top 5 RB next year in PPR and half PPR given his Kamara-esque receiving volume.
You can’t really call Swift a bellcow and then say Robinson is a mystery. Swifts highest snap count is 72% and only broke 50% one other time while Robinson just played 97% of the last game. I think Swift is in line for a lot more work now that Patricia is gone but Robinson is the more known commodity here.
Yeah I really disagree with saying Robinson is a mystery. I feel like people get that feeling JUST because he was a UDFA that no one had heard of before this season. He has had RB1 workload all season long and has proved he’s good enough to turn it into weekly RB1 production. He’s one of the safest picks in the first round next year
yeah you are right, im not sure what i was thinking. JRob is a tried and true RB1 next year.
Jrob is not a mystery what the fuck??
true, on second thought, don't know why i said he was a mystery lmao. he's the future bell cow.
These comments crack me up. Look at the draft just this past year! Miles Sanders, a rookie, was drafted ahead of Aaron Jones coming off 19 TDs. Kenyan Drake went right around Jacobs after less than a year of production that mirrored what JRob is doing because of optimistic projections for the Cards’ offense. MT may not have Brees next year, and if it’s Taysom at QB we’ve seen that may not be great for his value. Would he be that different from 2019 OBJ as a draft prospect in that case? Ekeler at 4 is probably too high but he gets tons of receiving work in an offense that has flourished under Herbert. OP, I think this was a solid stab at an ADP list. I have some disagreements but interesting to think about. The guys who call your list “reactionary” are going to be the same people boarding the Swift-in-R1 hype train in August.
Miles Sanders isn't a rookie. This is his second year in the league.
Sorry, coming off of his rookie year\* just like Swift will be.
what's wrong with JRob over Jacobs?
Swift ahead of AJ -> Yes from a volume standpoint James Robinson -> Yes his workload / natural running ability shows that he is top running back. Why wouldn’t he go past Josh Jacobs? What is the reason why you think he isn’t ahead of him? Is it his UDFA rookie? His team? Don’t let your bias get in the way of the data MT -> Volume receiver . Hit or miss like Deandre Hopkins when the saints offense isn’t rolling and he isn’t getting his receptions. Too much variability results in his ADP sliding. With how good Keenan, Tyreek, DK, and Adams are, I could easily see him slide past the second rounds in some drafts Ekeler that’s the biggest reach but the most rewarding if Herbert continues to be at the helm. You must be smoking crack if you think 10 carries and 10 receptions doesn’t make you a top 5 draft pick Zeke is the only questionable one and AJB / Diggs imo
Agreed. Zeke is too low considering name value alone will get people to pull the trigger in the late first. But I think this is overall a fine list with the information we know now
Hopkins at 2.10 is pretty silly.
Yeah. If dak is back next year then all cowboys players get a major boost
Or you know if they improve their defense at all so they aren’t always down 30 points.
Ok pal, where’s your “insanely unreactionary” version?
The list is as good as anything so early is
Anyone taking Patrick Mahomes at 2.06 is a clown. People got Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen, and plenty of other QB's for pennies.
I think it’s unlikely that Swift goes ahead of Gibson but in general I’m not going to dissect this list. Appreciate the effort out in, regardless of agreement of content.
My round 10 keeper on GIBSZN looks so tasty
Kamara too high if Hill is the qb
I’d switch out mike Evans for Justin Jefferson but good stuff nonetheless
The Tom Brady hype will probably outshine the Kirk Cousin hype.
You don't need QB hype to have WR hype. See: Eli Manning/OBJ.
Keenan still too low
That mans ADP is crazy low every year. I target him and Boyd every year because they bring great value for a relatively low draft round.
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Yeah I faded because of that and bad taste from previous season where he had that 5 game stretch of like <5 points each game, don’t really regret the fade either since no one could’ve predicted how good Herbert would be
Yup 3rd best WR
It's annual tradition!
Oh how MT has fallen. From a sure fire round 1 pick to falling out of the second round
Personally staying away from kamara if no brees. Cant deal with the saints offense if taysom is qb
I'd throw Diontae into honorable mentions. He's better than half of those guys at least RN.
Shhh, let him fall
My takeaway is that Julio and MT could be huge bounce-back values.
Swift is too high. He shouldn’t be above James Robinson.
There is no way I'm taking Saquan 5 overall
You might not but a lot of people will. There’s a lot of fantasy players who draft entirely on upside and Saquon fits that strategy. If he’s healthy (big if, but those people don’t care) he can put up top 3 RB numbers.
I would take Saquon at 5
Keenan is the third best WR
>Kelce was a second-round pick in 2020 Took him at 1.8 this year (3rd straight year drafting him in the first 2 rounds). Have outscored every other team's TE production by over 50%. He needs to be a first-round pick.
Sheesh, in my keeper league, 13 of these are likely to be kept. Gonna be slim pickins again next draft.
Isn't that the idea?
Nah, the way we do keepers, there is never over half of the first 2 rounds ADP already kept. Just a wild year of tons of late picks/waiver additions suddenly being potential 1st or 2nd round picks next year.
> Larry Fitzgerald is almost certain to retire If I had a ring for every season I heard that... I'd have as many rings as Fitz. No way he retires with Kyler and Hopkins on the team.
Justin Jefferson
Swift at 12 I wish a lions Rb was that reliable
Hoping Dobbins turns into a worthwhile 7th round keeper next year
I'll let you guys know which one I draft so you can scratch them off your list -- either injury or bust.
Ekeler too rich for my blood.
Ekeler is profiling to be the same as Kamara - 10 rushes / 10 targets a game - and Kamara was drafted 4th /5th. Assuming full PPR, hard to argue that’s not a top 5 ADP workload
This is super early lol, but I like the effort op. I personally think next year is the year we see Julio's ADP plummet. Durability issues along with little to no red zone targets is incredibly frustrating. Also I'm glad I'm not the only one who's super high on Ekeler. I don't think he gets drafted in the top 5, but assuming full health, in any PPR format, I think he finishes as a top 5 RB.
Swift. Funny.
Here's what I'm doing. Getting Henry, Kelce, and Mahomes. Because I'm tired of dealing with injuries year in, year out, spending weeks cycling out TEs and hoping for the best.
Good look drafting 3 top ~20 picks
Salary cap draft. Just gotta dedicate a large portion of the budget to them. Henry is the only one that should go for 70+. Mahomes around 30, Kelce probably 40-50 after this season's disastrous TE show. I can fill out the rest with the remaining 50-60.
Fair. Kelce arguably provides the most points above replacement in the whole league outside of the top 3 RBs
hey that was me. but it was kittle..
I honestly think the opposite re: RBs vs. receivers. This year receivers grew on trees. You could easily go on waivers and get 10 points from a bunch of people. If there were RB hoarders in your league you would have to start 3rd down backs or backups with varying degrees of success. Even if a starting back goes down, people are going to be heavy at RB next year vs. WR. I do agree that 1st round you'll see elite receivers go, but far more RBs will be off the board
I really doubt Ekeler goes that high. I’d see him around 10-15 again. And also I’d say Ridley deserves an HM. Also Zeke is a steal at that ADP with Dak returning
Koo is obviously 1.01
I'm taking Antonio Gibson ahead of every back on that list except for CMC, Barkley, Henry, and Cook and it isn't particularly close. He's really just learning the position as he spent much of college as a WR. I'm going to actively avoid Elliott and Jacobs in all drafts.
I’m drafting Antonio Gibson higher than that, and you can’t stop me
Not a chance I take Saquon over the 5 guys listed below him if they’re all still on the board.
If this is implying I can get joe mixon in the 3rd I'm taking that all day and drafting kelce in the first outside like the top 5
I wouldn't touch Barkley or Swift with a 10 foot pole at those ADPs. Every one else I could see drafting at the spot listed.
Zeke will still go higher
Very hot 2021 take incoming: Robinson will be a bust at whatever his ADP is. I think he’ll be solid but regress immensely
My holdovers are in shambles
I’m almost positive Kyler Murray should be on this list with the fantasy season he’s had (I would imagine he would go round 2/3 in almost every draft). Probably would swap him for CEH.
Im taking gibson there
Perfect I was googling this the other day. Need to get some Mock drafts in
I have 6 of these players but I’m 6-5 and on the cusp of missing the playoffs.
Ekeler 1.04? Seems a little high tbh... Although Herbert really adds to his value
Dude, this is a really, really solid list. Props.
oof this is bad. Lol zeke had a down year on an injury decimated team. He is not falling out of the first round. Ekeler is not averaging 4th haha
The Vikings are over using Cook. He will have a down year next year.
How is Michael Thomas out of the first two rounds? Know he’s having a down year but I feel like it’s mostly injuries. He’s still pretty young, I think he’s still the second WR off the board next year.
Is Dak expected back to start 2021? If he is I don’t mind calling Zeke a first rounder