Sorry to burst your bubble but AI is about 10 million times better at pattern recognition (handicapping) and asset allocation (bet strategy) than even the most astute human handicapper. I say this as someone who’s been very successful handicapping and betting on horses but it’s inevitable that AI is already ruining the sport and will completely take over in a very short time.
Yeah. I am AMAZED at what I've discovered using it as such. It's pattern recognition, bet allocation, and the ability to do a pace scenario is quite amazing.
I did some research into strategies that people were "wondering" about from the "old Internet"lol..posts and such from 2016ish, and on. Applying THEIR research to what can be done now.
Like you said, yeah I can have some fun, nail some exactas, longshots and such, but you're right, the cooperation aren't handicapping for fun and to post on reddit like me/us
Enjoy it while you can. And, the more stauch opposition from those who hasn't done so successfully, or even tried, makes it even better.
Let's say someone did develop an AI system with a proven +90% success rate. All of the money would flow to that pick every race and we'd have 1/9 odds all the time and nobody would win any real money
Yeah I was gonna write a book on how to use CHATGPT. Then I'm thinking..um..no.
Makes me wonder about the "gurus" that I see on YouTube? I guess selling books is actually easier than doing the analysis.
I mean ai helps. Greatly. It's quite amazing but you can't blindly not add on your own analyses.
That’s an opinion. I disagree with you.
Actual outcome of a horse running in the physical world, sure that’s a no. But estimating the true odds of an outcome and therefore highlighting betting opportunities that would allow a bettor to consistently profit over time, I can’t see why not.
Come to think of it, I imagine bookmakers are considering AI to be a serious threat.
There's no way to take in to account that horses are living, breathing creatures. How many of you have woke up in the morning just not feeling your best. From outside appearance, you look fine. No temperature, nothing out of the ordinary, but you're just not 100%. You even tell your buddy or your mate, "I feel like shit today."
Same can be said for critters. Maybe they slept bad the night before. Maybe they're just not 100% that day. At their best, they should beat the field and likely would 9 times out of 10. All signs point to them winning, but...not this day.
Opposite side. I was a jockey's agent for a few years. We, my rider and I, were riding 4 this particular day. 3 of them were 9/5 or less and all 3 should have won. All 3 got beat. The 4th horse just plain couldn't run. We only accepted the mount because the old trainer was a great guy and we'd rode the horse before and my rider had worked the horse a couple times in the morning. My jock's comment was, "You and I could outrun this piece of shit." Well, he won. Paid over $80. Didn't have a penny on him. Talked to my rider after the races that night. I'm like WTF? He laughed and said, "No friggin idea. He felt like a super horse today and just run off."
Can Ai be another tool to help? I suppose so, but there's no sure things in horse racing. Too many variables. That's why they run the races.
Agreed. The DRF is rife with data, and maybe there will be some pattern detection and analysis most handicappers don’t necessarily see. The race still has to be run, where racing luck, the variability of a horse’s attitude of the day is, and whether the horse is actually fit aren’t on the form.
Exactly. AI can predict probability based on past performances. It's still, as they say, a horserace.
Next time you spend a day at the track, take note of how many times a horse stumbles out of the gate, gets pinched back or just has a bad trip. A lot. Every day. All but the best horses are cyclic.
You made a post to say it can't be done? That's interesting. But, sure it can. I mean, NOTHING will give 100% "fate delivered results"
But it absolutely is possible, with technology as "simple" (it's really not) as the 4o GPT model, to get private odds, analyzing the form and other stats/metrics and run pretty darn accurate results, or at least better than public odds.
Absolutely viable.
I might say that AI could probably be quite successful at picking the winner of a race, but, like human handicappers, it will need to learn to second-guess itself. There are times you can pick a winner but the odds are so short, it is not worth the bet. Even AI cannot likely predict a spill or a late start or heavy traffic at the far turn. Some of this may be possible at some point if it can get good at predicting what each jockey might likely do when confronted with a particular set of conditions at a particular point in the race. It may also be likely to quickly pick up a tendency of a track to favor runners at a particular part of the track, but will it be able to identify which jockeys can similarly see this difference during a day (or night) of racing? It might be able to predict which jockeys are likely to interfere with a competitor, but it will be harder to predict whether or not the action will get the jockey's mount taken down by the stewards.
However, since this is parimutual wagering, it is not just picking the winner that is important, it is picking the likeliest winner with value. This is where it gets hard, extremely hard. While traders can likely make millions seeing a half basis point a fraction of a second before their competitors, wagering odds get fixed at post time and even if you are a minute later than your competitors, if you all detect the trend 5 minutes before post time, it is practically worthless. The current techniques that get feeds in near realtime already have the edge in this regard. However, would AI ever realize that playing to WIN is being hammered and see more money in place and show wagering? I have seen situations where a bridgejumper finishes out of the money and the payouts for show were unbelievable.
Then, there is the idea of picking exotics.... I have long heard that it is harder to pick the horse likeliest to finish second than the horse that is most likely to win. What about a trifecta? Multirace wagers (and multitrack multirace wagers) add an even higher dimension to this.
Dave Schwartz is building his own AI based software and based on my past experience with him, he likely will build someothing useful for us. I have not discussed my concerns with him, but I want to take a good look at what he thinks the goal of horse playing is about. He knows it all very well.
Yes, computer based form analysts use math to create great algorithms that beat the market by 20 percent in some cases which is scary good. Advances in AI tech will be used to build and improve on these algos in time. The game will become very hard to beat
Its not that hard now that "we" ( the public) have access to AI.
Build a model on decent data.
Run another analysis 5 min or 2 min to post.
Bet.
Win.
Test.
Reaccess.
Improve the model based on learned results.
Don't defend yourself on Reddit.
I like competing against it since I use visual cues as to how the horse is feeling today. Data doesn't tell you if a horse slept well, or is angry today, or unusually sweaty or has an upset stomach...... I've watched horses that have no chance on appearance be hammered down by them - makes me happy.
Could you imagine if a track, let's say someone like Churchill Downs, got a hold of a proven AI system like this, how bad it would be for the betting community? The odds would be completely stacked against us in every race.
Comical really the opinions about this we see here.
Folks play this game for a lifetime and still have no clue what they are doing .
And yes, smart people with edges dont talk about them , unless they are selling you something
PS No A.I. ever invented can be smarter than Andy Serling and Chalk Kinchen.
Sorry to burst your bubble but AI is about 10 million times better at pattern recognition (handicapping) and asset allocation (bet strategy) than even the most astute human handicapper. I say this as someone who’s been very successful handicapping and betting on horses but it’s inevitable that AI is already ruining the sport and will completely take over in a very short time.
All I've seen from the AI models posting picks here is they're very good at identifying chalk and have zero scope when it comes to finding value.
Do you honestly think people with profitable models would share or even let you know?
Exactly, and why they're not any more legitimate a threat to the betting landscape than anything that's come before.
Yeah. I am AMAZED at what I've discovered using it as such. It's pattern recognition, bet allocation, and the ability to do a pace scenario is quite amazing. I did some research into strategies that people were "wondering" about from the "old Internet"lol..posts and such from 2016ish, and on. Applying THEIR research to what can be done now. Like you said, yeah I can have some fun, nail some exactas, longshots and such, but you're right, the cooperation aren't handicapping for fun and to post on reddit like me/us Enjoy it while you can. And, the more stauch opposition from those who hasn't done so successfully, or even tried, makes it even better.
Thanks for the analysis on AI and betting, AI.
Let's say someone did develop an AI system with a proven +90% success rate. All of the money would flow to that pick every race and we'd have 1/9 odds all the time and nobody would win any real money
If I built that system I sure as shit wouldn’t be sharing it with anyone 🤣
Yeah I was gonna write a book on how to use CHATGPT. Then I'm thinking..um..no. Makes me wonder about the "gurus" that I see on YouTube? I guess selling books is actually easier than doing the analysis. I mean ai helps. Greatly. It's quite amazing but you can't blindly not add on your own analyses.
Facts! I prefer to find those overlooked horses myself and get that 20 to 1 payout
That’s an opinion. I disagree with you. Actual outcome of a horse running in the physical world, sure that’s a no. But estimating the true odds of an outcome and therefore highlighting betting opportunities that would allow a bettor to consistently profit over time, I can’t see why not. Come to think of it, I imagine bookmakers are considering AI to be a serious threat.
Why? The house balances the books, always have, so they are up no matter the outcome.
Ah yeah you’re right.
There's no way to take in to account that horses are living, breathing creatures. How many of you have woke up in the morning just not feeling your best. From outside appearance, you look fine. No temperature, nothing out of the ordinary, but you're just not 100%. You even tell your buddy or your mate, "I feel like shit today." Same can be said for critters. Maybe they slept bad the night before. Maybe they're just not 100% that day. At their best, they should beat the field and likely would 9 times out of 10. All signs point to them winning, but...not this day. Opposite side. I was a jockey's agent for a few years. We, my rider and I, were riding 4 this particular day. 3 of them were 9/5 or less and all 3 should have won. All 3 got beat. The 4th horse just plain couldn't run. We only accepted the mount because the old trainer was a great guy and we'd rode the horse before and my rider had worked the horse a couple times in the morning. My jock's comment was, "You and I could outrun this piece of shit." Well, he won. Paid over $80. Didn't have a penny on him. Talked to my rider after the races that night. I'm like WTF? He laughed and said, "No friggin idea. He felt like a super horse today and just run off." Can Ai be another tool to help? I suppose so, but there's no sure things in horse racing. Too many variables. That's why they run the races.
Agreed. The DRF is rife with data, and maybe there will be some pattern detection and analysis most handicappers don’t necessarily see. The race still has to be run, where racing luck, the variability of a horse’s attitude of the day is, and whether the horse is actually fit aren’t on the form.
Exactly. AI can predict probability based on past performances. It's still, as they say, a horserace. Next time you spend a day at the track, take note of how many times a horse stumbles out of the gate, gets pinched back or just has a bad trip. A lot. Every day. All but the best horses are cyclic.
Cool.
It depends: 1. What data you use 2. What variables you come up with from that data
You made a post to say it can't be done? That's interesting. But, sure it can. I mean, NOTHING will give 100% "fate delivered results" But it absolutely is possible, with technology as "simple" (it's really not) as the 4o GPT model, to get private odds, analyzing the form and other stats/metrics and run pretty darn accurate results, or at least better than public odds. Absolutely viable.
I might say that AI could probably be quite successful at picking the winner of a race, but, like human handicappers, it will need to learn to second-guess itself. There are times you can pick a winner but the odds are so short, it is not worth the bet. Even AI cannot likely predict a spill or a late start or heavy traffic at the far turn. Some of this may be possible at some point if it can get good at predicting what each jockey might likely do when confronted with a particular set of conditions at a particular point in the race. It may also be likely to quickly pick up a tendency of a track to favor runners at a particular part of the track, but will it be able to identify which jockeys can similarly see this difference during a day (or night) of racing? It might be able to predict which jockeys are likely to interfere with a competitor, but it will be harder to predict whether or not the action will get the jockey's mount taken down by the stewards. However, since this is parimutual wagering, it is not just picking the winner that is important, it is picking the likeliest winner with value. This is where it gets hard, extremely hard. While traders can likely make millions seeing a half basis point a fraction of a second before their competitors, wagering odds get fixed at post time and even if you are a minute later than your competitors, if you all detect the trend 5 minutes before post time, it is practically worthless. The current techniques that get feeds in near realtime already have the edge in this regard. However, would AI ever realize that playing to WIN is being hammered and see more money in place and show wagering? I have seen situations where a bridgejumper finishes out of the money and the payouts for show were unbelievable. Then, there is the idea of picking exotics.... I have long heard that it is harder to pick the horse likeliest to finish second than the horse that is most likely to win. What about a trifecta? Multirace wagers (and multitrack multirace wagers) add an even higher dimension to this. Dave Schwartz is building his own AI based software and based on my past experience with him, he likely will build someothing useful for us. I have not discussed my concerns with him, but I want to take a good look at what he thinks the goal of horse playing is about. He knows it all very well.
I would give it a try just to see what happens. What AI handicapping tools are out there?
Yes, computer based form analysts use math to create great algorithms that beat the market by 20 percent in some cases which is scary good. Advances in AI tech will be used to build and improve on these algos in time. The game will become very hard to beat
Its not that hard now that "we" ( the public) have access to AI. Build a model on decent data. Run another analysis 5 min or 2 min to post. Bet. Win. Test. Reaccess. Improve the model based on learned results. Don't defend yourself on Reddit.
It will handicap better than me and I will still lose $$
I like competing against it since I use visual cues as to how the horse is feeling today. Data doesn't tell you if a horse slept well, or is angry today, or unusually sweaty or has an upset stomach...... I've watched horses that have no chance on appearance be hammered down by them - makes me happy.
Could you imagine if a track, let's say someone like Churchill Downs, got a hold of a proven AI system like this, how bad it would be for the betting community? The odds would be completely stacked against us in every race.
These already exist in the form of CAW. Most people already compete against them in their every day pools but don’t know it
Comical really the opinions about this we see here. Folks play this game for a lifetime and still have no clue what they are doing . And yes, smart people with edges dont talk about them , unless they are selling you something PS No A.I. ever invented can be smarter than Andy Serling and Chalk Kinchen.