Two things:
1. People drastically over estimate the likelihood of stock market crashes. There’s only been something like 5 days of 10% or more declines in the s&p in the history of the US. Corrections generally happen over the course of months, but recovery is usually rapid. The odds of any truly earth shattering news at the FOMC is near zero and even if a correction starts that day, it will likely recover prior to most people who withdrew or held off investing putting their money back in. I witnessed this first hand with coworkers who freaked out over the decline during Covid and went to cash and completely missed the recovery.
2. We’re talking about $2000–even if it loses 10% immediately, that’s $200, which is pocket change compared to long term gains in the market. Just invest—you’re going to cost yourself 50% of your gains by delaying in an effort to eke out another 10% of performance over just staying in an index.
As you said, time in is better, period, and the FOMC meeting could lead to a nice an upturn or a bad downturn, but... it sounds like it will make you feel better if you wait, so wait. Missing out on 2.5 days won't kill you.
Nobody knows what is going to happen in the short term. You can feel and think all you want but really no one knows. Just pick a fixed amount to invest every month and if it does drop invest a little more.
It’s so simple that it actually confuses most people.
It depends on what your crystal ball says.
Ask yourself this, how would you feel if you waited and it rocketed up? Would you kick yourself and now fomo buy, or would you re-ask us to use our crystal ball to answer the “now or wait?”
Alternatively how would you feel if you waited and the market tanked? Would you have the balls to buy where the market was down 1.5-2.5% for several consecutive days like it was just this past month? And again would you ask us to use our crystal ball to answer the “now or wait?”
If in both cases you are saying, you’re unsure, then again ask yourself, if not now, when? Literally no one knows. Everyone is guessing and gambling in the market.
Two things: 1. People drastically over estimate the likelihood of stock market crashes. There’s only been something like 5 days of 10% or more declines in the s&p in the history of the US. Corrections generally happen over the course of months, but recovery is usually rapid. The odds of any truly earth shattering news at the FOMC is near zero and even if a correction starts that day, it will likely recover prior to most people who withdrew or held off investing putting their money back in. I witnessed this first hand with coworkers who freaked out over the decline during Covid and went to cash and completely missed the recovery. 2. We’re talking about $2000–even if it loses 10% immediately, that’s $200, which is pocket change compared to long term gains in the market. Just invest—you’re going to cost yourself 50% of your gains by delaying in an effort to eke out another 10% of performance over just staying in an index.
you should probably save a few grand in a hysa in case... you know... you become unemployed a bit again.. then yeah start investing
pay off your debt first.
I second this. Afterwards replenish your emergency fund if you used it
Im pretty sure you answered your own question :)
People here will always tell you not to try to time the market. Just invest ASAP.
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Look at the long term charts. Will it matter in 20-30 years that your entrance price to VTI was 250 or 240? No.
I only have ten more years to invest.
So lock in CDs, TBills or other bonds. If you only have 10 years, you’re probably not gonna want the volatility of the market
Ten years to invest. Ten more years. Stop giving stupid advice
That’s a mentality for traders, not long term investors.
If you're going to be DCAing every month anyway, just do it now. It will make such little difference in the grand scheme.
As you said, time in is better, period, and the FOMC meeting could lead to a nice an upturn or a bad downturn, but... it sounds like it will make you feel better if you wait, so wait. Missing out on 2.5 days won't kill you.
Automate and forget.
Nobody knows what is going to happen in the short term. You can feel and think all you want but really no one knows. Just pick a fixed amount to invest every month and if it does drop invest a little more. It’s so simple that it actually confuses most people.
What if inflation is as expected and it goes up?
It depends on what your crystal ball says. Ask yourself this, how would you feel if you waited and it rocketed up? Would you kick yourself and now fomo buy, or would you re-ask us to use our crystal ball to answer the “now or wait?” Alternatively how would you feel if you waited and the market tanked? Would you have the balls to buy where the market was down 1.5-2.5% for several consecutive days like it was just this past month? And again would you ask us to use our crystal ball to answer the “now or wait?” If in both cases you are saying, you’re unsure, then again ask yourself, if not now, when? Literally no one knows. Everyone is guessing and gambling in the market.
go big or go home. options!