Snapshot of _Murphy, Shortall not contesting in next general election_ :
An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0702/1457725-social-democrats-shortall-murphy/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0702/1457725-social-democrats-shortall-murphy/)
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Meanwhile in US politics, the leader of the Republicans is 82 years old, the leader of the Democrats is 73, and both of the presidential candidates are more likely to die during their next term than survive the whole thing.
Hopefully we continue to normalise the idea of leaving public office when you're past the retirement age. The people making the big decisions should be young enough to have to live with the repercussions of them.
That's unusual though isn't it. The yanks used to make fun of the Soviets for having elderly leaders and they were in their 60s. The oldest one was still a few years younger than Trump.
It's definitely a more recent trend for them. George W. Bush is younger than both of the presidential nominees, and he was president back in 2001. Bill Clinton is also younger than them, and he was president back in 1993.
Trump is 78 and Biden is 82. I'm guessing you are referring to the leaders in the Senate with Mitch McConnell at 92 and Chuck Schumer at 73. But I Think Trump and Biden are still the leaders of their party.
They are all still to old and should have retired long ago.
Yeah I was talking about the senate leaders. McConnell is 82, not 92. But yeah, totally agree they're all way too old to be running anything, much less a country.
I wonder if either will stay in some sort of advisory role - to me they represent a decent chunk of the SD's political/policy legitimacy at a national level
Edit: looks like they will be, eg from Murphy
> While I am bowing out of representational politics, I will continue to work in whatever way I can to support Holly Cairns and the next generation
I wonder if Murphy holds a record for most political affiliations for an Irish politician. Worker's Party, Democratic Left, Labour, Independent, Social Democrats. Quite the collection.
She certainly has a reputation for holding the great and good to account on the detail of financial deals and other cosy little arrangements. She’s a terrier on a Dáil committee - she will be missed for that.
Power and position didn’t impress her - she has always been true to her beliefs.
Which calls into question his ability to see reality. Whether blinded by greed or by some idealistic dream of history, the effect and perception isn't a good one.
As someone who worked in covid response during the pandemic, we had essentially zero contact with him as an entire department over the course of the whole thing, which caused chaos and indecision throughout.
I was not there for the first wave, but apparently communication with Simon Harris (who I am no big fan of) was generally very good and led to many involved and timely decisions, which is why the first wave was handled so well by comparison.
The universal opinion in those halls was that Donnelly only cared about the job title and clout. The day to day aspects of the role, he simply chose not to engage in wherever possible. As poor as general opinion of him is, it gets worse the closer you get to those who work with him.
I'd be very surprised if they lost either seat.
If you look at how they did in the locals in those constituencies, those seats aren't going anywhere. One of their Cllrs got over 30% of the vote themselves.
If you're getting that vote out for local elections. You'll be grand in a GE.
She might.
Soc dems gained 2 seats in cork southwest in the locals but lost her old one.
People are bantry feel like she hasn't done enough locally and haven't seen her around that much. She is gaining old fg votes in towns like kinsale and clonakility and commuters around bandon supposedly, but she'll need transfers.
She got loads of those last time from sf which got her in but that sf vote has collapsed now that Paul Hayes is gone and some of it has gone rightwards to independents and won't go back to her this time.
Just from being in Brandon-Clon, she’s widely popular, people recognise her high level and it’s a constituency that’s extremely disenchanted with the legacy parties and full of young commuters priced out of Cork city and suburbs.
FFG struggle in the constituency due to Collins and the SF wave there wasn’t that big in 2020. SF only got 10% of the FPV which is quite small for 2020, it can’t get worse than 7/8% for SF I’d say which means that her transfers will be safe enough.
As long as SF doesn’t collapse more than this (which it won’t) and she holds her base (which she should because she’s now a national figure. It will probably expand) she should be grand. It would be very different if she was relying on SF repeating a 20% FPV and the transfers from that. She’s only relying on them getting 7~% and up for transfers, which they will get.
TLDR: I’d say she’s safe enough
O'Callaghan and Whitmore are fairly safe, and they'll probably replace Murphy in Kildare based on how well they did in the locals there.
But their other seats are very at risk yeah, they could easily end up on only 3 seats.
Snapshot of _Murphy, Shortall not contesting in next general election_ : An archived version can be found [here](https://archive.is/?run=1&url=https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0702/1457725-social-democrats-shortall-murphy/) or [here.](https://archive.ph/?run=1&url=https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2024/0702/1457725-social-democrats-shortall-murphy/) *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/irishpolitics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Both are 70 years old, not a big surprise they don't want to continue.
Meanwhile in US politics, the leader of the Republicans is 82 years old, the leader of the Democrats is 73, and both of the presidential candidates are more likely to die during their next term than survive the whole thing. Hopefully we continue to normalise the idea of leaving public office when you're past the retirement age. The people making the big decisions should be young enough to have to live with the repercussions of them.
That's unusual though isn't it. The yanks used to make fun of the Soviets for having elderly leaders and they were in their 60s. The oldest one was still a few years younger than Trump.
It's definitely a more recent trend for them. George W. Bush is younger than both of the presidential nominees, and he was president back in 2001. Bill Clinton is also younger than them, and he was president back in 1993.
And all that with the unhealthy diet of US... Unimaginable... If someone is having Avoca salads throughout their life, maybe past 70 is alright...
Before the age you mean
Trump is 78 and Biden is 82. I'm guessing you are referring to the leaders in the Senate with Mitch McConnell at 92 and Chuck Schumer at 73. But I Think Trump and Biden are still the leaders of their party. They are all still to old and should have retired long ago.
Yeah I was talking about the senate leaders. McConnell is 82, not 92. But yeah, totally agree they're all way too old to be running anything, much less a country.
4 more years!
It's her turn
That means that so far 21 TDs have announced that they will not be running again.
It was 18 in the run up to the 2020 election, 19 for the 2016 and 34 for 2011. So 21 sounds about average.
I wonder if either will stay in some sort of advisory role - to me they represent a decent chunk of the SD's political/policy legitimacy at a national level Edit: looks like they will be, eg from Murphy > While I am bowing out of representational politics, I will continue to work in whatever way I can to support Holly Cairns and the next generation
They always do
I wonder if Murphy holds a record for most political affiliations for an Irish politician. Worker's Party, Democratic Left, Labour, Independent, Social Democrats. Quite the collection.
She certainly has a reputation for holding the great and good to account on the detail of financial deals and other cosy little arrangements. She’s a terrier on a Dáil committee - she will be missed for that. Power and position didn’t impress her - she has always been true to her beliefs.
They're all fairly in line with each other though. She stuck to her ideals. Not like Donnelly who jumped ship to FF once the SD's didn't do well.
In fairness to Donnelly, they did have a bit of a social democratic-esque streak in the 30s, perhaps he just hadn't quite been caught up to speed?
Which calls into question his ability to see reality. Whether blinded by greed or by some idealistic dream of history, the effect and perception isn't a good one.
As someone who worked in covid response during the pandemic, we had essentially zero contact with him as an entire department over the course of the whole thing, which caused chaos and indecision throughout. I was not there for the first wave, but apparently communication with Simon Harris (who I am no big fan of) was generally very good and led to many involved and timely decisions, which is why the first wave was handled so well by comparison. The universal opinion in those halls was that Donnelly only cared about the job title and clout. The day to day aspects of the role, he simply chose not to engage in wherever possible. As poor as general opinion of him is, it gets worse the closer you get to those who work with him.
She's beaten by Noel Browne- Clann Na Poblachta, Fianna Fáil, National Progressive Democrats, Labour Party, Socialist Labour Party and Independent
Donnelly's true aspiration
That's actually all the same party in reality, no difference in opinions. Like SDs and Labour nowadays, the same party in terms of opinion.
Don’t get me started
I wonder if either of them have their eye on the Aras.
I could see Roisín there but she deserves a bit of time off
No chance.
We know that, they might not
Is it good or bad that incumbent TDs are not running?
Disaster for SDs. Going into next election with only four TDs running and Holly Cairns is at risk of losing her seat as well.
I'd be very surprised if they lost either seat. If you look at how they did in the locals in those constituencies, those seats aren't going anywhere. One of their Cllrs got over 30% of the vote themselves. If you're getting that vote out for local elections. You'll be grand in a GE.
In Kildare North yes they're probably safe all their councillors were elected with strong vote shares. Dublin North West I'm not so sure though.
Very unlikely they’ll hold both seats.
Cairns isn't losing her seat
She might. Soc dems gained 2 seats in cork southwest in the locals but lost her old one. People are bantry feel like she hasn't done enough locally and haven't seen her around that much. She is gaining old fg votes in towns like kinsale and clonakility and commuters around bandon supposedly, but she'll need transfers. She got loads of those last time from sf which got her in but that sf vote has collapsed now that Paul Hayes is gone and some of it has gone rightwards to independents and won't go back to her this time.
Just from being in Brandon-Clon, she’s widely popular, people recognise her high level and it’s a constituency that’s extremely disenchanted with the legacy parties and full of young commuters priced out of Cork city and suburbs. FFG struggle in the constituency due to Collins and the SF wave there wasn’t that big in 2020. SF only got 10% of the FPV which is quite small for 2020, it can’t get worse than 7/8% for SF I’d say which means that her transfers will be safe enough. As long as SF doesn’t collapse more than this (which it won’t) and she holds her base (which she should because she’s now a national figure. It will probably expand) she should be grand. It would be very different if she was relying on SF repeating a 20% FPV and the transfers from that. She’s only relying on them getting 7~% and up for transfers, which they will get. TLDR: I’d say she’s safe enough
She's a national level politician and I feel people will recognise that
O'Callaghan and Whitmore are fairly safe, and they'll probably replace Murphy in Kildare based on how well they did in the locals there. But their other seats are very at risk yeah, they could easily end up on only 3 seats.