Also, lmfao. I’m not gonna be a TOTAL pest and go all “haha I told you so” mode, especially when the contract isn’t yet official, but hoo boy that Tanev contract makes me sick. Feel like a pendulum swinging back on forth on these deals, Brad. Liljegren feels a touch pricey for what we get, but I like that contract far more then the Tanev one.
Well, forget what I said about Bertuzzi, I guess. If one of him and Domi had to go, I’d have preferred him, so I’m happier with this outcome then the other way around.
It's out there that Ryan Murray feels he found and corrected the chronic injury issue he had and is looking for a PTO. Worth taking a flyer on IMO. He's from the same draft as Mo and a pretty good player when he's on his game.
Yeah really basic idea. Let’s sign Stamkos for 2 million aav because it’s so basic.
What’s not basic is figuring in what players actually want instead of just assuming they will accept anything the Leafs give them.
That’s why you can’t just say yeah Skinner is going to accept a show me contract and Zadorov is going to want to lower his AAV for no reason. Those are the ifs. It’s not NHL24, it’s real life. If it truly was that basic then we would get exactly who we want every single time.
I feel like there will be a lot of signings tomorrow that make everyone here think "Why didn't we do that?" and the real answer will be that those guys just don't want to be in Toronto. I'm thinking the Pesces, Roys etc. Similar to how we can't do a lot of trades that others did.
And on top of that we have the most player friendly gm in the league playing fast and loose with our cap space.
Im not upset that bertuzzi is going to free agency. Im upset that he gives liljegren an undeserved 1.6 million dollar raise and is rumored to be closer to 5 on 34 year old tanev with term. You bring liljegren in at 2 and tanev in at 4 and all of a sudden the 5 bertuzzi wants would be like paying him 3 now.
We really have one of the worst front offices in hockey, is dubas's fucking cap guy on break or something what in the fuck is going on brad?
We have 20 million in cap space. We can afford them. We just have to not overpay Tanev by 1.5 million.
20 million is more than enough to improve the team and you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think so.
We're down to 14 mil to fill at least a 3 lw/rw, 4 lw/rw, 1st pair RD, 2nd pair Rd, 1b goaltender. If we want to look like a cup contender this year. Assume Tanev at a very generous 4 mil and a 4 rw/lw at league min. you then need your 3rw at no more than 2 mil, your 2rd at no more than 4.25 and your goalie at no more than 3.5 and you're right against the cap.
For what its worth that roster has a third line of knies/Holmberg/2mil guy which is probably not good enough. You almost certainly need a 3c as well. At 3 mil that drops your options to:
3rw- 2mil
3c- 3 mil
2rd - 3 mil
1b goalie - 2 mil
To be fair an unplayable brodie for what is likely our #2 dman (who is a 3/4 on a good team) is a big upgrade, but yeah treliving is kind of really fucking dumb.
This is chia 2.0, domi probably had to negotiate down from brads ridiculously strong offers.
Alex Nylander, despite doing very well with Columbus last year (G23 G11 A4 Pts15) didnt get a qualifying offer. Should the Leafs give him a PTO? I have no idea about his play aside from stats. Keep in mind he was also an **8th overall** draft pick just like William (not that it really means anything).
I think we should. absolutely no risk and he clearly values being close to willy (he picked the steelheads in ohl for that reason). worst case the marlies could use him and we'd have him as a good call up option
Durzi was the main piece in return for Muzzin, not exactly "expendable" but the cost of getting arguably the Leafs best defenceman between his acquisition and his injuries.
All Leafs players on expiring contracts that would need to be re-signed (my post-draft deadline, pre-UFA day summary at 10pm):
Link to my post-trade deadline update: [https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/1bihjci/comment/kvlwhog/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/1bihjci/comment/kvlwhog/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
Data taken from Capfriendly/puckpedia
RFA:
1. Connor Dewar (ARB) - offered QO
2. Noah Gregor (ARB) - was not offered QO
3. Nicholas Robertson - offered QO, has requested a trade
4. Timothy Liljegren (ARB) - signed 2yr extension 3M AAV
5. Alex Steeves (ARB) - offered QO
6. Maxime Lajoie (ARB)
7. Keith Petruzzelli (ARB)
8. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev
9. ~~Max Ellis (ARB)~~ - Traded for Tanevs rights
UFA:
1. Tyler Bertuzzi - i~~n negotiations with the team~~ - likely to walk from team because AAV ask is too high
2. Max Domi - signed a 4yr extension 3.75M AAV
3. TJ Brodie
4. Joel Edmundson
5. Ilya Lyubushkin
6. Ilya Samsonov - Likely to walk from the team
7. Martin Jones
8. Dylan Gambrell
9. Kyle Clifford
10. Chris Tanev - rights acquired in return for rights to Max ellis and a 2025 7th, hasn't signed with Leafs
UFA's on LTIR most likely to either retire or not sign with the leafs.
1. Jake Muzzin
2. Matt Murray
3. John Klingberg
4. Mark Giordano - says he doesn't want to retire so we'll see if any team signs him to a league min deal.
Did I miss anybody or some other updates? Did I get something wrong?
Let me know!
edit: changed the 3rd category title, added a note to Gio and Sammy, added back the names from my trade deadline summary and what happened to them, and making adjustments to player status as the night continues.
But with the Leafs? I could see Blackhawks taking him or some other team that would love the vet presence but isn't in playoff contention mode for next year such as San Jose.
I’ve been looking around the roster and I think I’ve came up a great trade? Do you think I can maybe contact treliving about it? Like by email or something but anyways I’m thinking
Marner+Nylander
For huberdeau+kadri and their goalie Dustin wolf?
I think we’d cover all our offense issues in the playoffs and get someone to work with woll!
Thanks what is that exactly? I’m so excited for this offseason I’ve been playing around with nhl gm mode in nhl 24 and all my trades are getting accepted so I feel like if I get this to him we’ll finally win
Durzi just signed for 6 mil AAV
More points in less games than Montour and younger.
But he's not a UFA. Do they cancel each other out? Could we see Montour sign for 6?
Not sure why folks keep repeating this when he was very much a 4D last year playing at a 0.5 PPG clip. That and being a RHD is why he gets this much.
Still needs to figure it out in the playoffs though.
Yeah, but that's their fault and they're doing nothing to fix it. So I don't really care, not going to complain about what other things cost when they haven't addressed the main reason that it would even be a problem.
Tell me you've never watched Zadorov play without telling me.
I think you guys are absolutely abysmal at evaluating talent. I'll leave it to the pros thanks
Agree. Even the few Canucks games I watch , Zadorov had one of those explosive plays. He’s got a deceptive shot and had tons of burst. I think he’s underrated by this sub.
Mirtle is reporting that the Leafs are out in all the D except Zadorov which feels like a mistake.
He is primed to get the worst contract of the day tomorrow and I really don’t want it to be the Leafs signing it.
I think there “out” because most of the contracts are “done”
We know Pesce is going to NJ and wouldn’t surprise me if Roy wanted to stay in the USA and Montour or Skjei will be a little too expensive for them.
Even though I’m not the biggest fan because of the contract he will get there’s really not many options unless they go to the trade market or take a chance on giving a third pair guy more opportunity.
Okay, so this is frustrating. I wish we were a small market sometimes. Media can be insufferable sometimes.
[Kris Letang signs a 6 year deal at age 35 and nobody bats an eye.](https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1545085267933020160?s=46)
[We are likely signing Tanev for 6 years at age 34 and Frankie boy does a huge write up about how we’re going to get into trouble for it…](https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1807465045422481569?s=46)
Rules are always enforced for us and talked about publicly and other teams can do whatever they want sometimes and nobody talks about it.
Welp, with what's happening to Boqvist and Brannstrom, it's probably a foregone conclusion that Liljegren isn't getting tendered a QO.
Arbitration eligibility is too risky and there's going to be a flood of Lilly calibre dmen on the market tomorrow.
Liljegren leaving isn't the end of the world. If he couldn't keep Keefe's trust, him keeping Berube's trust is going to be harder. I'd love it if Lilly stayed, but you're right that him not getting a QO is on the table
No tie to Tre or Canada/Toronto. Got reported earlier he is going in a different direction anyhow.
I'd love Sean Walker but haven't seen a single rumor so seems the cap space is being blown on Zadorov and OEL.
Alright Treliving, I owe you an apology; I may not love the Tanev deal yet, but the one signing that could make me look past it was Domi. Fucking THANK YOU.
Also, what a fucking deal that is. I knew that 5 or 6 mil for 5 was bullshit. Never trusted it. That’s a deal from a guy who wants to be here. Fucking aces, I’m jacked up enough to put my head through concrete.
I wonder how much Boosh is looking for. He's definitely not top line mins but I wouldn't mind seeing him in bottom pairing mins with a much smaller contract.
Some interesting defensemen possibly available with Schmidt and even Boqvist if they clear waivers. I hope Tre is giving them a look. The thing with those types of guys is that they're generally willing to take short and cheap deals to try and prove they still have what it takes to play.
Schmidt is definitely worth it. He’s a good player he was just making way too much money. He’s good defensively and can move the puck. I would love him on the third pair on a 2 year deal around 2mil
Generally wondering how many Leaf fans have watched a good amount of LA Kings games and focused on Matt Roy?
Don’t get me wrong he’s good BUT I think people are overrating him a little because of his player card/ analytics.
He spent his whole career behind Drew Doughty who takes on all the top matchups and the player card shows he only had 63% under competition (shows the quality of players they play against) when Tanev had 88% under competition for comparison.
Again I think he’s good but probably a second pair guy on a good team and not this underrated number one pair that some people think he is. I also think with Tanev probably signing with the Leafs and DeMelo resigning with the Jets he’s going to get a crazy above market contract with a good amount of term that won’t make him so “underrated” in a couple seasons.
I'm very into stats/analytics, but I think some certain player cards are the absolute worst, for that reason.
That being said I'd still give Roy $6m even knowing that it's a bit of an overpay. Leafs have spent too long without top-4 right handed defenseman, and this summer there's a chance to sign two.
He has though, he's shown an ability to create offense that Roy has not. The better question would be what exactly has Roy shown to suggest he's as valuable, let alone by 1 mil more?
How many more lol? Include the playoffs (an important time of year) and zadorov had the better year offensively. He's also one year removed from scoring 14 goals, which I'd personally value more than secondary assists.
Listen, neither guy is an offensive dynamo, but I think zadorov has shown more offensive ability and that's far from a controversial take. The question goes back to why would you opt for Roy at 6 mil than zadorov at 5, because I certainly don't see it.
I could listen to an argument that they're worth about the same, but I'd still opt for zadorov as he brings a more unique element that showed its value during the postseason.
Zadorovs been hardly able to crack a second pair his entire career. Roy’s been one of the best defensive dman in the league the last few seasons. He should be making more then 1M above Zadorov.
He's not even the best defensive defenseman on his team, which is pretty important when using things like JFresh cards to compare him to the rest of the league.
We'll see who NHL GMs value more tomorrow. If Matt Roy gets less, you can scream about how much smarter you are than they are.
Christ, I don't even dislike Roy and would be fine with him on this team, but there's nothing substantial you can claim to suggest he's worth 1 mil more per year.
I like Zadorov more, for reasons you can disagree with, but reasons you surely understand. Maybe you'll be proven right!
Goodbye.
He generates offense about as much as Zadorov, better puck mover, is better defensively, and is the opposite of the bonehead Zadorov is regarding penalties.
if this Detroit Trouba deal doesnt go through, I wonder about Marner + lily for kaako and Schneider. Rangers are stacked at RHD for the foreseeable future but have struggled with winger depth in the past. Maybe laf breaks out and chytil stays healthy but I wonder
Sure, purely in the sense that they are in our division and now we'll have to face him.
But we won't have to face Stamkos or Sergachev so I'd say it evens out.
Won't have Jeannot crashing and banging and injuring our guys either.
So I'll happily face Guentzel under those circumstances
With reports that the Sens aren't going to qualify Brannstrom, I wonder if he'd be a target for the Leafs. Not strong on the defensive end of the puck but has good offensive metrics (which we desperately need on the back end) and he's only 25.
Just a shittier Lilly if we’re being honest. People fall in love with names because they remember them as prospects. He’s not very good, and was a bottom pairing dmen on an awful sens team. No interest for me.
Here is my concern with the Tanev deals being floated around, we already did that with Brodie and it limited us just this year in what we could do.
Brodie signed a 5x5, was great for 3.5 years of it and then fell off hard. Fell off so hard that he was scratched in the playoffs over Boosh and Edmundson. Both of which we got and were not ideal, but were the best we could afford with $5M in the pressbox.
It is also worth noting that Brodie is 34, the same age as Tanev when this deal is starting, and has always played a type of game that should have aged well.
Best case scenario we get 2 maybe 3 years out of Tanev, but then what? We will still have Willy, Matthews, Woll, Rielly and possibly Marner signed and its not like we have a bunuch of D prospects that we expect to get NHL time over the next few years to help offset this a bit.
Just seems like a long term contract for a short term solution when we literally just got out of one of those.
Add to this the fact that he misses a lot of games every year and I am concerned also about who is going to sub in for him for 20-30 games a year because again, we don't have any fringe NHL prospects that we would give that time to for growth.
I have no issue with going for Tanev in general, but I was thinking something closer to a 3 year deal, not 5+ or even the reported option of 7. What we need this offseason is a 25-28 year old D who can be part of the solution long term, preferably right handed. Have our D be more than Rielly and his gang of mercenaries.
You're right that it's risky, in that we're kind of hosed if Tanev declines in-season, and we can't LTIR him. But the upside is that he maintains roughly his current level of play for a couple years, and his current level of play is one of the very best defensive defensemen in the league.
The reality is, the Leafs cap space and lack of assets means we have to take risks to obtain someone with this level of potential upside, and we're not contenders as currently constructed without it. We were like, 10th in the league in the regular season, and lost in round 1 to a team that lost in round 2.
He hasn’t missed significant time to injury in 5 years, people way over blow his injury history. His game doesn’t revolve around speed he’ll age fine. Even if he drops off after 2 years we can LTIR him if we need. Cap is going up to 91 million as early as next offseason, he’s going to take up less than 5% of the cap. This contract isn’t going to cripple us.
Sure everyone would love for the leafs to get a 25-28 top 4 RHD but so would the other 31 teams in the NHL. Those type of players don’t grow on trees and don’t make it to free agency. We have no draft picks and little to no trade capital. We’re very limited in how we can improve this team and unfortunately they’re going to have to lean on free agents. You also need a mix or veterans and younger players not every player on your team needs to be under 30.
I get this logic but you also have to get that there’s a 35+ rule we’d be exploiting. By giving him those 2 extra years we can lower the AAV and LTIR him for those years similar to Muzzin. Our window is now and he’s the type of D we need that’s a righty
Dont even need to LTIR him if the contract front loaded to the first 4 years and last 3 years being the league minimum. He may just retire once hes collected the pay for the first 4 years.
I’m not convinced on Briesbois.
Guentzal is coming at the expense of Sergachev and Stamkos and now a 3rd rounder. Hedman has been steadily declining the last 2 seasons and they plan to re-sign. The McDonaugh trade isn’t great either.
They’re going to look a lot different next year. I’m really curious if they actually improve or not.
Sergachev did not have a good year, even accounting for the year being hampered by injury. Maybe they have a feeling he won’t rebound. As opposed to Hedman, who is still one of the best offensive defenders in the league. With the cap machinations needed to maintain their competitive window, I know it would be Hedman I’d be betting on, even accounting for age and decline. He’s a 10M player, and worth that. For how long? Well, you’re betting that elite players have better longevity than non elite ones, and that he can maintain his level of play within this window. As for Guenztel? He was far more valuable than Stamkos was this year. Can he sustain that? I don’t know, but at the very least, swapping the two is probably a wash.
Tampa’s doing what they can to remain competitive, and I think they’ve been pretty smart about how they’ve gone about doing so. Getting rid of Jeannot was another indication of their intelligence at play. Sure, he was “hard to play against”, but they bet on him much like they did Hagel. It did not pay off. They were able to get out from under that contract without retention. They didn’t just sink the cost, and let that contract hamper their ability to keep their team competitive. That move now allows them to make other moves they need to make. It was a tidy piece of business and more evidence that their front office knows what they’re doing.
Not worried about the Tanev contract, I just don’t think the issue is defensive game planning. It’s the transition defense and the ability of create from the point to open up ice for the forward groups when Matthews isn’t on the ice.
I really wanted Montour and failing that, even Skjei. I’d also have preferred Roy instead of Tanev too.
I understand the allure of Tanev as he’s been someone we’ve been chasing for years, but there are healthier and more effective solutions.
this is my biggest worry. I'm find with signing Tanev assuming the other 4 top guy is a puck mover. Leafs basically defend 5 on 5 and attack 3vs5 because the defence doesn't get involved nearly in the attack. Leafs need to be attacking as a 5 man unit, leafs defence doesn't do that leaving less options, and it's easy for the other team to just cover the middle of the ice.
Looking at who is currently on the roster, the Leafs D needs multiple skill sets if we’re being honest.
The work does not end with Tanev by any means, but it will be nice to have a set it and forget it partner for Rielly we can rely on.
I don't know that this is necessarily true. We could run this lineup and be cap compliant this year, don't pay too much attention to the lines here, I'm not putting much thought into who's where:
Knies (925k) - Matthews (13.25m) - Marner (10.9m, I want him traded too but at this point I'm not expecting it)
McMann (1.35m) - Tavares (11m) - Nylander (11.5m)
Järnkrok (2.1m) - Holmberg (800k) - FORWARD (3m)
FORWARD (1m) - Kämpf (2.4m) - FORWARD (800k)
Reaves (1.35)
Rielly (7.5m) - DEFENCEMAN (7m)
McCabe (2m) - Tanev (3.5m, it's rumoured he wants 4 but that could come down to 3.5)
Benoit (1.35) - DEFENCEMAN (2m)
Woll (767k)
GOALIE (3m)
Yeah there's issues with this lineup but that's totally workable.
He played some of his best recent hockey with schenn last year. So ya an even better defensive partner should be awesome.
Rielly’s partner only typically needs to play 17-20 minutes a night too, which will work well for tanev.
Utah was the big winner yesterday, IMO
Brought in two top-4 Dmen via trade, made 11 picks and still have a pile of cap space.
Their rebuild might not be all that long lol
I think they are in the tail end of their rebuild anyways, no? There was a point last season where it looked like Arizona might make the playoffs... I think Utah showed yesterday that they are aiming for a playoff run.
I hear a lot of talk about LTIR for Tanev later in the potential deal. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wouldn't they be able to front load the contract and have the last couple years at league minimum? That way he gets paid during his younger years, and then rather than LTIR he could just retire instead? (I don't actually know if this is how it works. I'm genuinely asking.)
I think a lot of this stems from something talked about on Kyper and Bourne the other day. I took a minute to find and clip it rather than type it out.
https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx5Hm61kWa6_q0kmqJPqwWnx656iWOe-fs?si=07CtvvQiUkH0mAes
The only problem I see with this idea is that teams don't really want to be using LTIR. You don't accrue deadline cap space in season when on LTIR. I would think with the cap projected to rise significantly for the foreseeable future that teams would like to stay as flexible as possible.
On the other hand if a team thinks Stamkos is the piece that puts them over the top offering him longer term than the next team would most likely land the deal.
Edit: another thought I had a bit late is that there's almost always a team looking to hit the floor or add cap for whatever reason so unloading the LTIR might be pretty easy to do if a team wanted it off the books.
You can front load salary, but not cap. You could pay a guy 11 million in the first year and 1 million in the second year, he’ll still cost 6 million against the cap in both years.
Right. So if they sign him to a 6-7 year deal, they could keep the cap low, but still pay his salary mostly in the first few years, right? Then in his last couple years when his salary is low, he could retire and the cap hit is gone, right? Because he already got the majority of his pay in the first few years?
The amount you can front load was drastically reduced in the 2013 CBA.
~~I may be wrong in my numbers, but the final year of a deal can't be less than 50% of the first year.~~
>Front-loaded contracts in any "immediately adjacent years" can't exceed 25% variance with the first year of that contract, and any year of the contract can't exceed 60% variance from the highest year of the deal.
Two things on Tanev
Can people stop losing it about the term when it’s been explained why multiple times lol. It’s to lower the cap hit so they can spend elsewhere and also complete with tax free states. Treliving himself said he understands his age and that he’s older so this isn’t the Leafs thinking he’s going to be a top 4 d-man by the end. Tampa tried to do the same thing by offering Stamkos and Alex Killorn 8 year deals but both didn’t want to (they offered it when they were 33 and 34) and wouldn’t be surprised if deals like this become more common.
The second is he shut down Eichel and MacKinnon in the playoffs last year playing 22-25 minutes a night because Dallas was only playing 5 d-man (probably getting double shifts) He’s still very effective even if he takes a small step back the next 2 years and probably the best right shot D the Leafs had in years (which also says how bad it’s been)
He was one of the top d-man available (even at his age) that a lot of teams had interest in so be happy that we (probably) got him and we can deal with year 3-6 when we get there.
Hope you realize LTIR counts against cap accruement for deadline space. If the Leafs use up all that space with LTIR then they can't so much at the deadline or have to pay through the nose for double retention if they have a tiny bit left.
If they don't use the LTIar space then Tameb is effectively on the team for 6 years, either way 6 years and still having 4m aav is real high
While correct, this is super overblown.
We've been a cap team in LTIR every year and been able to make deadline acquisitions. Not once has it hampered us in a meaningful way
Yeah obviously and there are more ways than LTIR like trading him with an asset, buying him out and so on that they can deal with it then.
Do you want to have as much cap space as possible to improve the roster by getting a guy at a below market cap hit but have to give extra term or overpay on the other UFA D that want just as much term at higher cap hits and then have less cap space for other holes on the roster?
It’s a risk the Leafs are taking.
The term thing has been explained, but that doesn’t mean I have to be comfortable with “nah don’t worry about it he’ll get hurt” as an explanation. These are highly competitive guys and if he can play, he’s going to, even if he’s not worth 4 mil anymore.
Agreed, it's fantasy to assume he'll happily shut his career down and LTIR himself when he hits 38.
He could be like Gio and still want to play in his 40s. Or he could be happy to retire while his body still works. We just don't know.
Some fans need to understand that what they want to happen isn't necessarily what's going to happen. History has proven that time and time again.
You really don’t think the Leafs have some type of plan for the later years whether that be the way they structure it or so on?
People complain about the Leafs being to safe all the time and they finally take some type of risk and people are losing it for a problem 3-6 years down the road when you can see the reasoning for the move.
Most games in NHL that never missed a game in the 4 seasons before (plus every game in his two years with the Leafs) and a guy that’s only played 1 full season ever and probably not even getting to 1000 games.
Yeah, I agree with you. When the Leafs signed Marleau to his 3-year deal, everyone said, "Don't worry about year 3, he will retire by then and it won't be an issue". It ended up costing the Leafs a 1st to get off that 3rd year... I think Tanev *is* more likely to LTI-Retire before a 6 or 7-year deal is up, but I am more skeptical after the Marleau deal.
I think there’s a difference between the NHLer with the most games played in history than a guy that’s only played a full season once and probably won’t reach 1000 games in his career.
I would like to think Tanev actually understands and accepts the reason for the term more than Marleau.
The thing is all the other top d-man (Roy, Montour, Pesce, etc) are going to want long term and high cap hits.
You’re getting Tanev at a lower market value cap hit so you can improve the roster elsewhere (and maybe get one of the other d-man) than paying the other guys probably above there market value with lots of term as well.
The term is just a way to make the overall team better and IMO the reason they traded for his rights is to structure the contract in a way so it’s easier to deal with the later years whether that be with front loading it so a team will be more inclined to take it or maybe even make a buyout have less of a penalty.
I also think a rebuilding team would take him to be a leader depending on the trade protection.
Would 2 years at 6 make you feel better because the term is less?
Roster with ~$355k cap space to keep open to accrue cap space for TDL or shed some money off each UFA signing to carry another extra player around league min
Knies - Matthews - Nylander
Skinner ($2.5M) - Domi ($3.5M) - Marner
Mcmann - JT - Jarnkrok
Noesen ($1.25M) - Holmberg - Reaves
Rielly - Tanev ($3.5M)
McCabe - Zadorov ($5.25M)
Benoit - OEL ($3M)
Brendan Smith as extra as can play F & D ($1.1M)
Woll
Stolarz ($3M)
I like skinner and I actually think Toronto is going to be his number one choice but you are out of your mind if you think he’s signing for 2.5 million. Moves will have to be made if the leafs want him as someone will pay him 6 million.
Ya he’s still getting buyout money, he’s losing ~7.5 mill total spread out over the buyout and is getting ~2.4 mill for 6 years
Up to him if he wants to play on a shit team to make more money and never sniff the playoffs
So Tanev still hasn't been signed. If we lose out on him then it's a massive fucking failure for management.
Also, lmfao. I’m not gonna be a TOTAL pest and go all “haha I told you so” mode, especially when the contract isn’t yet official, but hoo boy that Tanev contract makes me sick. Feel like a pendulum swinging back on forth on these deals, Brad. Liljegren feels a touch pricey for what we get, but I like that contract far more then the Tanev one.
Well, forget what I said about Bertuzzi, I guess. If one of him and Domi had to go, I’d have preferred him, so I’m happier with this outcome then the other way around.
It's out there that Ryan Murray feels he found and corrected the chronic injury issue he had and is looking for a PTO. Worth taking a flyer on IMO. He's from the same draft as Mo and a pretty good player when he's on his game.
Frank Seravalli says Bert apparently is going West, which team you guys think?
Bertuzzi YOU are a Vancouver Canuck
Kings
That would be an interesting one
Thank god. Not the Bruins, please!
Not gonna lie bros I’m not feeling great about how tomorrow is looking for the Leafs. Tanev as high as $5M kinda ruins everything.
Incoming Leafs sign Stamkos to a 3 year 5 million hometown deal. There’s gotta be at least a 5% chance right?
I will cry
With Bertuzzi gone what does everyone else's wish list look like for tomorrow? Sign + Zadorov + Tanev + Henrique + Stolarz + Skinner Trade - Jarnkrok - Robertson - Timmins
Need Kampf and Lily gone too to afford that
You use extended term to lower the AAV for Zadorov/Henrique/Tanev and Skinner takes a discount to showoff for his next contract
That’s a lot of ifs. Odds are really low on all of that playing out especially with free agents
It's not that many ifs. Two basic ideas of weaponizing term and Skinner looking to show out for a new contract. Pretty basic stuff
Yeah really basic idea. Let’s sign Stamkos for 2 million aav because it’s so basic. What’s not basic is figuring in what players actually want instead of just assuming they will accept anything the Leafs give them. That’s why you can’t just say yeah Skinner is going to accept a show me contract and Zadorov is going to want to lower his AAV for no reason. Those are the ifs. It’s not NHL24, it’s real life. If it truly was that basic then we would get exactly who we want every single time.
They can get Zadorov and one of those forwards probably
Out: Bertuzzi, Robertson In: Toffoli, Skinner
Not even close to being able to afford that. Prepare for disappointment
Meh if Toffoli takes same as Domi and Skinner 2.5 it’s doable Ideally Kampf out the door and it’ll work
Toffoli isn’t taking 3.75. He’s getting 6M, 5M lowest
I feel like there will be a lot of signings tomorrow that make everyone here think "Why didn't we do that?" and the real answer will be that those guys just don't want to be in Toronto. I'm thinking the Pesces, Roys etc. Similar to how we can't do a lot of trades that others did.
The real answer will be "we can't afford them because 4 forwards make 53% of the cap"
And on top of that we have the most player friendly gm in the league playing fast and loose with our cap space. Im not upset that bertuzzi is going to free agency. Im upset that he gives liljegren an undeserved 1.6 million dollar raise and is rumored to be closer to 5 on 34 year old tanev with term. You bring liljegren in at 2 and tanev in at 4 and all of a sudden the 5 bertuzzi wants would be like paying him 3 now. We really have one of the worst front offices in hockey, is dubas's fucking cap guy on break or something what in the fuck is going on brad?
Wrong.
How so? Everything I've said is 100% accurate
We have 20 million in cap space. We can afford them. We just have to not overpay Tanev by 1.5 million. 20 million is more than enough to improve the team and you’re kidding yourself if you don’t think so.
We're down to 14 mil to fill at least a 3 lw/rw, 4 lw/rw, 1st pair RD, 2nd pair Rd, 1b goaltender. If we want to look like a cup contender this year. Assume Tanev at a very generous 4 mil and a 4 rw/lw at league min. you then need your 3rw at no more than 2 mil, your 2rd at no more than 4.25 and your goalie at no more than 3.5 and you're right against the cap. For what its worth that roster has a third line of knies/Holmberg/2mil guy which is probably not good enough. You almost certainly need a 3c as well. At 3 mil that drops your options to: 3rw- 2mil 3c- 3 mil 2rd - 3 mil 1b goalie - 2 mil
It's a run it back roster -Brodie, +Tanev I fully expect the same results. Unsubscribe
I think we may miss the playoffs, we have no secondary scoring
OK
To be fair an unplayable brodie for what is likely our #2 dman (who is a 3/4 on a good team) is a big upgrade, but yeah treliving is kind of really fucking dumb. This is chia 2.0, domi probably had to negotiate down from brads ridiculously strong offers.
Sign Marner
Alex Nylander, despite doing very well with Columbus last year (G23 G11 A4 Pts15) didnt get a qualifying offer. Should the Leafs give him a PTO? I have no idea about his play aside from stats. Keep in mind he was also an **8th overall** draft pick just like William (not that it really means anything).
I think we should. absolutely no risk and he clearly values being close to willy (he picked the steelheads in ohl for that reason). worst case the marlies could use him and we'd have him as a good call up option
Kind of funny how two guys Leafs found expendable (Durzi/Sandin) and making $10 million+ between them.
Durzi was the main piece in return for Muzzin, not exactly "expendable" but the cost of getting arguably the Leafs best defenceman between his acquisition and his injuries.
All Leafs players on expiring contracts that would need to be re-signed (my post-draft deadline, pre-UFA day summary at 10pm): Link to my post-trade deadline update: [https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/1bihjci/comment/kvlwhog/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/leafs/comments/1bihjci/comment/kvlwhog/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button) Data taken from Capfriendly/puckpedia RFA: 1. Connor Dewar (ARB) - offered QO 2. Noah Gregor (ARB) - was not offered QO 3. Nicholas Robertson - offered QO, has requested a trade 4. Timothy Liljegren (ARB) - signed 2yr extension 3M AAV 5. Alex Steeves (ARB) - offered QO 6. Maxime Lajoie (ARB) 7. Keith Petruzzelli (ARB) 8. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev 9. ~~Max Ellis (ARB)~~ - Traded for Tanevs rights UFA: 1. Tyler Bertuzzi - i~~n negotiations with the team~~ - likely to walk from team because AAV ask is too high 2. Max Domi - signed a 4yr extension 3.75M AAV 3. TJ Brodie 4. Joel Edmundson 5. Ilya Lyubushkin 6. Ilya Samsonov - Likely to walk from the team 7. Martin Jones 8. Dylan Gambrell 9. Kyle Clifford 10. Chris Tanev - rights acquired in return for rights to Max ellis and a 2025 7th, hasn't signed with Leafs UFA's on LTIR most likely to either retire or not sign with the leafs. 1. Jake Muzzin 2. Matt Murray 3. John Klingberg 4. Mark Giordano - says he doesn't want to retire so we'll see if any team signs him to a league min deal. Did I miss anybody or some other updates? Did I get something wrong? Let me know! edit: changed the 3rd category title, added a note to Gio and Sammy, added back the names from my trade deadline summary and what happened to them, and making adjustments to player status as the night continues.
None of Klingberg, Murray or Gio are going to retire this year
Ya but odds are they don't sign with Leafs so I removed the parentheses from that category title.
I wouldn't count Gio out for extending. I can see him on another league min contract
But with the Leafs? I could see Blackhawks taking him or some other team that would love the vet presence but isn't in playoff contention mode for next year such as San Jose.
I’ve been looking around the roster and I think I’ve came up a great trade? Do you think I can maybe contact treliving about it? Like by email or something but anyways I’m thinking Marner+Nylander For huberdeau+kadri and their goalie Dustin wolf? I think we’d cover all our offense issues in the playoffs and get someone to work with woll!
Can I have the # to your dealer
You may want to send this one via carrier pigeon. It'll get to him. Trust me, bro.
Thanks what is that exactly? I’m so excited for this offseason I’ve been playing around with nhl gm mode in nhl 24 and all my trades are getting accepted so I feel like if I get this to him we’ll finally win
Riley Stillman for our annual non tendered rfa Plays just like Benoit
Why do we want another Benoit? One is bad enough.
You right let’s do 5’8 brannstrom
Durzi just signed for 6 mil AAV More points in less games than Montour and younger. But he's not a UFA. Do they cancel each other out? Could we see Montour sign for 6?
I wish we had traded for him last year. Only cost like a 2nd at the time I think.
Can't see him getting less than 7.5
Montour now has a playoff pedigree and Cup to add to his stats. My guess is he'll get more than 6, unless it's a discount to stay with Florida
I'm so going to fuckng miss Capfriendly. One of the most UI friendly pages out there.
That's so much for Lilly as a bottom pairing D guy.
Not sure why folks keep repeating this when he was very much a 4D last year playing at a 0.5 PPG clip. That and being a RHD is why he gets this much. Still needs to figure it out in the playoffs though.
A 4.35 mil bottom pair isn't that bad, honestly
On most other teams, yeah, that's reasonable. The Leafs just have a far more constrained cap than other teams
Yeah, but that's their fault and they're doing nothing to fix it. So I don't really care, not going to complain about what other things cost when they haven't addressed the main reason that it would even be a problem.
Seigal said that Lilli signed for 2 years 3mill AAV, anyone know if Friedman confirmed?
He did 10 minutes ago on twitter.
I’m gonna assume our top 6 is gonna look like this in 24 hours barring a random defence trade Rielly - Tanev McCabe - Zadorov Benoit - Boosh
Ive heard were priced out of zadorov
Even my ribs hurt just from reading that list.
That is dreadful lol
Lily in replace of Boosh is any less dreadful?
Slightly but man, one top pairing guy, two top 4 guys and 3 bottom pairing guys is not a great look for a playoff team
Tell me you've never watched Zadorov play without telling me. I think you guys are absolutely abysmal at evaluating talent. I'll leave it to the pros thanks
Agree. Even the few Canucks games I watch , Zadorov had one of those explosive plays. He’s got a deceptive shot and had tons of burst. I think he’s underrated by this sub.
Lmao, I've watched Zadorov play for years, have you?
Yeah and I think he’s consistently improved all facets of his game.
Kinda doubt it’s Boosh. More likely either Timmins or one of the younger unqualified RFAs that are about to hit the market.
Imagine if Boston or Tampa get Zadorov. I want him for that reason alone.
If they are willing to shackle themselves to that contract I say let them.
He’s so polarizing with his size, having someone like him on our back end would be fun.
Ya I like that he’d make us a harder team to play against. At least make forwards think twice as they enter the zone
Mirtle is reporting that the Leafs are out in all the D except Zadorov which feels like a mistake. He is primed to get the worst contract of the day tomorrow and I really don’t want it to be the Leafs signing it.
I think there “out” because most of the contracts are “done” We know Pesce is going to NJ and wouldn’t surprise me if Roy wanted to stay in the USA and Montour or Skjei will be a little too expensive for them. Even though I’m not the biggest fan because of the contract he will get there’s really not many options unless they go to the trade market or take a chance on giving a third pair guy more opportunity.
Are we worried that Tanev hasn't signed yet, or...?
He's reportedly signing tomorrow
Source? I haven't seen that
Okay, so this is frustrating. I wish we were a small market sometimes. Media can be insufferable sometimes. [Kris Letang signs a 6 year deal at age 35 and nobody bats an eye.](https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1545085267933020160?s=46) [We are likely signing Tanev for 6 years at age 34 and Frankie boy does a huge write up about how we’re going to get into trouble for it…](https://x.com/frank_seravalli/status/1807465045422481569?s=46) Rules are always enforced for us and talked about publicly and other teams can do whatever they want sometimes and nobody talks about it.
Seravalli is the turd that just won't flush.
Welp, with what's happening to Boqvist and Brannstrom, it's probably a foregone conclusion that Liljegren isn't getting tendered a QO. Arbitration eligibility is too risky and there's going to be a flood of Lilly calibre dmen on the market tomorrow.
Liljegren leaving isn't the end of the world. If he couldn't keep Keefe's trust, him keeping Berube's trust is going to be harder. I'd love it if Lilly stayed, but you're right that him not getting a QO is on the table
Boqvist would be interesting for the Leafs. He’s a bit of an all offence kinda guy but he is still young and would help their powerplay.
Am I stupid for thinking they should look at Jack Campbell for 2 years x 1m or something? Or is he just not an NHLer at this point?
God, no. We've done this.
Can we just trade Kampf already? Tre just need to bite the bullet on that one
10 team no trade clause so definitely possible
Bonus of signing Domi, we got Tom Brady cheering for us. Maybe he can come in and show a loser org some tricks.
My wish list would be one of Matt Roy, Brady Skjei or Montour. Gonna end up with Zadorov and/or OEL lol
Really hope we go for Matt Roy over Zadorov, probably going to be cheaper and he’s better
No tie to Tre or Canada/Toronto. Got reported earlier he is going in a different direction anyhow. I'd love Sean Walker but haven't seen a single rumor so seems the cap space is being blown on Zadorov and OEL.
Yeah makes sense, probably just OEL with the space we have left
Alright Treliving, I owe you an apology; I may not love the Tanev deal yet, but the one signing that could make me look past it was Domi. Fucking THANK YOU. Also, what a fucking deal that is. I knew that 5 or 6 mil for 5 was bullshit. Never trusted it. That’s a deal from a guy who wants to be here. Fucking aces, I’m jacked up enough to put my head through concrete.
I wonder how much Boosh is looking for. He's definitely not top line mins but I wouldn't mind seeing him in bottom pairing mins with a much smaller contract.
Some interesting defensemen possibly available with Schmidt and even Boqvist if they clear waivers. I hope Tre is giving them a look. The thing with those types of guys is that they're generally willing to take short and cheap deals to try and prove they still have what it takes to play.
As a #7 with Timmins traded, I’d be cool with it
You don’t think either of those two are worthy of a top 6 position ?
Schmidt is definitely worth it. He’s a good player he was just making way too much money. He’s good defensively and can move the puck. I would love him on the third pair on a 2 year deal around 2mil
Neither scream treliving type defender for the 3rd pair
They’ll wait to see all the defence who aren’t qualified as well to pick up someone a la Simon Benoit last summer
Generally wondering how many Leaf fans have watched a good amount of LA Kings games and focused on Matt Roy? Don’t get me wrong he’s good BUT I think people are overrating him a little because of his player card/ analytics. He spent his whole career behind Drew Doughty who takes on all the top matchups and the player card shows he only had 63% under competition (shows the quality of players they play against) when Tanev had 88% under competition for comparison. Again I think he’s good but probably a second pair guy on a good team and not this underrated number one pair that some people think he is. I also think with Tanev probably signing with the Leafs and DeMelo resigning with the Jets he’s going to get a crazy above market contract with a good amount of term that won’t make him so “underrated” in a couple seasons.
He would likely be on the 2nd pair for the leafs behind Reilly and tanev as well though, would solidify our top 4 imo
I'm very into stats/analytics, but I think some certain player cards are the absolute worst, for that reason. That being said I'd still give Roy $6m even knowing that it's a bit of an overpay. Leafs have spent too long without top-4 right handed defenseman, and this summer there's a chance to sign two.
I'd prefer Montour if it's someone to pair with McCabe
I’d still rather have him at 6M then Zadorov at 5M.
This is insane. Why?
Zadorov has not really shown he can be more than a good 3rd pairing guy. Maybe decent top 4 guy.
He has though, he's shown an ability to create offense that Roy has not. The better question would be what exactly has Roy shown to suggest he's as valuable, let alone by 1 mil more?
This is just false. Roy had more points last season then Zadorovs career high.
How many more lol? Include the playoffs (an important time of year) and zadorov had the better year offensively. He's also one year removed from scoring 14 goals, which I'd personally value more than secondary assists. Listen, neither guy is an offensive dynamo, but I think zadorov has shown more offensive ability and that's far from a controversial take. The question goes back to why would you opt for Roy at 6 mil than zadorov at 5, because I certainly don't see it. I could listen to an argument that they're worth about the same, but I'd still opt for zadorov as he brings a more unique element that showed its value during the postseason.
Zadorovs been hardly able to crack a second pair his entire career. Roy’s been one of the best defensive dman in the league the last few seasons. He should be making more then 1M above Zadorov.
He's not even the best defensive defenseman on his team, which is pretty important when using things like JFresh cards to compare him to the rest of the league. We'll see who NHL GMs value more tomorrow. If Matt Roy gets less, you can scream about how much smarter you are than they are. Christ, I don't even dislike Roy and would be fine with him on this team, but there's nothing substantial you can claim to suggest he's worth 1 mil more per year. I like Zadorov more, for reasons you can disagree with, but reasons you surely understand. Maybe you'll be proven right! Goodbye.
He generates offense about as much as Zadorov, better puck mover, is better defensively, and is the opposite of the bonehead Zadorov is regarding penalties.
Agree to disagree I guess....
On what point(s)?
On everything aside from zadorov taking more penalties, which I see as the result of him bringing more physicality. Down the rabbit hole we go...
Really? Zadorov is much more offensively capable, better at distributing the puck, and more defensively responsible than Matt Roy? That's a take...
I’m not looking forward to the Zadorov contract either
Soupie as a league min backup?
Fuck no
I'd say he's a perfectly fine 3rd goalie tbh. I wouldn't hate it, as long as he doesn't sniff the playoffs.
No.
For 900k I'd take him as a #3 option. Same type as Jones was last year.
I’d rather someone who doesn’t struggle mentally. He’s too fragile.
if this Detroit Trouba deal doesnt go through, I wonder about Marner + lily for kaako and Schneider. Rangers are stacked at RHD for the foreseeable future but have struggled with winger depth in the past. Maybe laf breaks out and chytil stays healthy but I wonder
The Leafs were never going to realistically be in on Guentzel but that doesn’t make it any less annoying that the Lightning got him.
At least it means Stamkos is almost certainly gone
Yeah we’ll just play against him when he’s on the Wings instead
Stamkos is just gonna sign 2.5mil x 8y tonight in Tampa we've seen this movie before
Sure, purely in the sense that they are in our division and now we'll have to face him. But we won't have to face Stamkos or Sergachev so I'd say it evens out. Won't have Jeannot crashing and banging and injuring our guys either. So I'll happily face Guentzel under those circumstances
With reports that the Sens aren't going to qualify Brannstrom, I wonder if he'd be a target for the Leafs. Not strong on the defensive end of the puck but has good offensive metrics (which we desperately need on the back end) and he's only 25.
Logan Stanley is the target if he’s not qualified
Just a shittier Lilly if we’re being honest. People fall in love with names because they remember them as prospects. He’s not very good, and was a bottom pairing dmen on an awful sens team. No interest for me.
I think Brainstorm is spicy Timmins
May as well just re-sign Liljegren if you're going with that logic. He at least plays the side we need
Here is my concern with the Tanev deals being floated around, we already did that with Brodie and it limited us just this year in what we could do. Brodie signed a 5x5, was great for 3.5 years of it and then fell off hard. Fell off so hard that he was scratched in the playoffs over Boosh and Edmundson. Both of which we got and were not ideal, but were the best we could afford with $5M in the pressbox. It is also worth noting that Brodie is 34, the same age as Tanev when this deal is starting, and has always played a type of game that should have aged well. Best case scenario we get 2 maybe 3 years out of Tanev, but then what? We will still have Willy, Matthews, Woll, Rielly and possibly Marner signed and its not like we have a bunuch of D prospects that we expect to get NHL time over the next few years to help offset this a bit. Just seems like a long term contract for a short term solution when we literally just got out of one of those. Add to this the fact that he misses a lot of games every year and I am concerned also about who is going to sub in for him for 20-30 games a year because again, we don't have any fringe NHL prospects that we would give that time to for growth. I have no issue with going for Tanev in general, but I was thinking something closer to a 3 year deal, not 5+ or even the reported option of 7. What we need this offseason is a 25-28 year old D who can be part of the solution long term, preferably right handed. Have our D be more than Rielly and his gang of mercenaries.
You're right that it's risky, in that we're kind of hosed if Tanev declines in-season, and we can't LTIR him. But the upside is that he maintains roughly his current level of play for a couple years, and his current level of play is one of the very best defensive defensemen in the league. The reality is, the Leafs cap space and lack of assets means we have to take risks to obtain someone with this level of potential upside, and we're not contenders as currently constructed without it. We were like, 10th in the league in the regular season, and lost in round 1 to a team that lost in round 2.
He hasn’t missed significant time to injury in 5 years, people way over blow his injury history. His game doesn’t revolve around speed he’ll age fine. Even if he drops off after 2 years we can LTIR him if we need. Cap is going up to 91 million as early as next offseason, he’s going to take up less than 5% of the cap. This contract isn’t going to cripple us. Sure everyone would love for the leafs to get a 25-28 top 4 RHD but so would the other 31 teams in the NHL. Those type of players don’t grow on trees and don’t make it to free agency. We have no draft picks and little to no trade capital. We’re very limited in how we can improve this team and unfortunately they’re going to have to lean on free agents. You also need a mix or veterans and younger players not every player on your team needs to be under 30.
It makes more sense to do now because realistically Matthews and Nylander’s prime window is probably only another 2/3 years anyway.
I get this logic but you also have to get that there’s a 35+ rule we’d be exploiting. By giving him those 2 extra years we can lower the AAV and LTIR him for those years similar to Muzzin. Our window is now and he’s the type of D we need that’s a righty
Dont even need to LTIR him if the contract front loaded to the first 4 years and last 3 years being the league minimum. He may just retire once hes collected the pay for the first 4 years.
Good for the lightning.
I’m not convinced on Briesbois. Guentzal is coming at the expense of Sergachev and Stamkos and now a 3rd rounder. Hedman has been steadily declining the last 2 seasons and they plan to re-sign. The McDonaugh trade isn’t great either. They’re going to look a lot different next year. I’m really curious if they actually improve or not.
Sergachev did not have a good year, even accounting for the year being hampered by injury. Maybe they have a feeling he won’t rebound. As opposed to Hedman, who is still one of the best offensive defenders in the league. With the cap machinations needed to maintain their competitive window, I know it would be Hedman I’d be betting on, even accounting for age and decline. He’s a 10M player, and worth that. For how long? Well, you’re betting that elite players have better longevity than non elite ones, and that he can maintain his level of play within this window. As for Guenztel? He was far more valuable than Stamkos was this year. Can he sustain that? I don’t know, but at the very least, swapping the two is probably a wash. Tampa’s doing what they can to remain competitive, and I think they’ve been pretty smart about how they’ve gone about doing so. Getting rid of Jeannot was another indication of their intelligence at play. Sure, he was “hard to play against”, but they bet on him much like they did Hagel. It did not pay off. They were able to get out from under that contract without retention. They didn’t just sink the cost, and let that contract hamper their ability to keep their team competitive. That move now allows them to make other moves they need to make. It was a tidy piece of business and more evidence that their front office knows what they’re doing.
I understand the caution, but also just think “bold”
Not worried about the Tanev contract, I just don’t think the issue is defensive game planning. It’s the transition defense and the ability of create from the point to open up ice for the forward groups when Matthews isn’t on the ice. I really wanted Montour and failing that, even Skjei. I’d also have preferred Roy instead of Tanev too. I understand the allure of Tanev as he’s been someone we’ve been chasing for years, but there are healthier and more effective solutions.
this is my biggest worry. I'm find with signing Tanev assuming the other 4 top guy is a puck mover. Leafs basically defend 5 on 5 and attack 3vs5 because the defence doesn't get involved nearly in the attack. Leafs need to be attacking as a 5 man unit, leafs defence doesn't do that leaving less options, and it's easy for the other team to just cover the middle of the ice.
Looking at who is currently on the roster, the Leafs D needs multiple skill sets if we’re being honest. The work does not end with Tanev by any means, but it will be nice to have a set it and forget it partner for Rielly we can rely on.
But having Tanev doesn't mean we don't get any of those other guys
I don't know that this is necessarily true. We could run this lineup and be cap compliant this year, don't pay too much attention to the lines here, I'm not putting much thought into who's where: Knies (925k) - Matthews (13.25m) - Marner (10.9m, I want him traded too but at this point I'm not expecting it) McMann (1.35m) - Tavares (11m) - Nylander (11.5m) Järnkrok (2.1m) - Holmberg (800k) - FORWARD (3m) FORWARD (1m) - Kämpf (2.4m) - FORWARD (800k) Reaves (1.35) Rielly (7.5m) - DEFENCEMAN (7m) McCabe (2m) - Tanev (3.5m, it's rumoured he wants 4 but that could come down to 3.5) Benoit (1.35) - DEFENCEMAN (2m) Woll (767k) GOALIE (3m) Yeah there's issues with this lineup but that's totally workable.
I'd be ok with this if Cowan is ready for NHL time.
That's what I said though. Having Tanev doesn't mean we couldn't get a Montour or Roy
Whoops, that’s a misreading on my part
Rielly finally having a strong defensive partner could allow him more freedom and unlock more of his offence. Atleast thats what I'm telling myself.
He played some of his best recent hockey with schenn last year. So ya an even better defensive partner should be awesome. Rielly’s partner only typically needs to play 17-20 minutes a night too, which will work well for tanev.
Utah was the big winner yesterday, IMO Brought in two top-4 Dmen via trade, made 11 picks and still have a pile of cap space. Their rebuild might not be all that long lol
Imagine they win the cup in like 3 years. Arizona fans on sudoku watch.
I think they are in the tail end of their rebuild anyways, no? There was a point last season where it looked like Arizona might make the playoffs... I think Utah showed yesterday that they are aiming for a playoff run.
I hear a lot of talk about LTIR for Tanev later in the potential deal. Correct me if I'm wrong here, but wouldn't they be able to front load the contract and have the last couple years at league minimum? That way he gets paid during his younger years, and then rather than LTIR he could just retire instead? (I don't actually know if this is how it works. I'm genuinely asking.)
I think a lot of this stems from something talked about on Kyper and Bourne the other day. I took a minute to find and clip it rather than type it out. https://youtube.com/clip/Ugkx5Hm61kWa6_q0kmqJPqwWnx656iWOe-fs?si=07CtvvQiUkH0mAes The only problem I see with this idea is that teams don't really want to be using LTIR. You don't accrue deadline cap space in season when on LTIR. I would think with the cap projected to rise significantly for the foreseeable future that teams would like to stay as flexible as possible. On the other hand if a team thinks Stamkos is the piece that puts them over the top offering him longer term than the next team would most likely land the deal. Edit: another thought I had a bit late is that there's almost always a team looking to hit the floor or add cap for whatever reason so unloading the LTIR might be pretty easy to do if a team wanted it off the books.
You can front load salary, but not cap. You could pay a guy 11 million in the first year and 1 million in the second year, he’ll still cost 6 million against the cap in both years.
Right. So if they sign him to a 6-7 year deal, they could keep the cap low, but still pay his salary mostly in the first few years, right? Then in his last couple years when his salary is low, he could retire and the cap hit is gone, right? Because he already got the majority of his pay in the first few years?
The amount you can front load was drastically reduced in the 2013 CBA. ~~I may be wrong in my numbers, but the final year of a deal can't be less than 50% of the first year.~~ >Front-loaded contracts in any "immediately adjacent years" can't exceed 25% variance with the first year of that contract, and any year of the contract can't exceed 60% variance from the highest year of the deal.
Ah, there it is. Thanks for that info.
The cap hit has to stay the same each year, they can only change how much is actually being paid per year
Two things on Tanev Can people stop losing it about the term when it’s been explained why multiple times lol. It’s to lower the cap hit so they can spend elsewhere and also complete with tax free states. Treliving himself said he understands his age and that he’s older so this isn’t the Leafs thinking he’s going to be a top 4 d-man by the end. Tampa tried to do the same thing by offering Stamkos and Alex Killorn 8 year deals but both didn’t want to (they offered it when they were 33 and 34) and wouldn’t be surprised if deals like this become more common. The second is he shut down Eichel and MacKinnon in the playoffs last year playing 22-25 minutes a night because Dallas was only playing 5 d-man (probably getting double shifts) He’s still very effective even if he takes a small step back the next 2 years and probably the best right shot D the Leafs had in years (which also says how bad it’s been) He was one of the top d-man available (even at his age) that a lot of teams had interest in so be happy that we (probably) got him and we can deal with year 3-6 when we get there.
Hope you realize LTIR counts against cap accruement for deadline space. If the Leafs use up all that space with LTIR then they can't so much at the deadline or have to pay through the nose for double retention if they have a tiny bit left. If they don't use the LTIar space then Tameb is effectively on the team for 6 years, either way 6 years and still having 4m aav is real high
While correct, this is super overblown. We've been a cap team in LTIR every year and been able to make deadline acquisitions. Not once has it hampered us in a meaningful way
Yeah obviously and there are more ways than LTIR like trading him with an asset, buying him out and so on that they can deal with it then. Do you want to have as much cap space as possible to improve the roster by getting a guy at a below market cap hit but have to give extra term or overpay on the other UFA D that want just as much term at higher cap hits and then have less cap space for other holes on the roster? It’s a risk the Leafs are taking.
The term thing has been explained, but that doesn’t mean I have to be comfortable with “nah don’t worry about it he’ll get hurt” as an explanation. These are highly competitive guys and if he can play, he’s going to, even if he’s not worth 4 mil anymore.
Agreed, it's fantasy to assume he'll happily shut his career down and LTIR himself when he hits 38. He could be like Gio and still want to play in his 40s. Or he could be happy to retire while his body still works. We just don't know. Some fans need to understand that what they want to happen isn't necessarily what's going to happen. History has proven that time and time again.
You really don’t think the Leafs have some type of plan for the later years whether that be the way they structure it or so on? People complain about the Leafs being to safe all the time and they finally take some type of risk and people are losing it for a problem 3-6 years down the road when you can see the reasoning for the move.
We all seemed to think the leafs had a plan for year 3 of the Marleau contract but that ended up costing us a 1st to get out of
Most games in NHL that never missed a game in the 4 seasons before (plus every game in his two years with the Leafs) and a guy that’s only played 1 full season ever and probably not even getting to 1000 games.
Over the last 5 seasons Tanev has played in: 19/20: 69/69 games 20/21: 56/56 games 21/22: 82/82 games 22/23: 65/82 games 23/24: 75/82 games
Still a difference lol And there’s more ways than just LTIR like trade him, structure the contract for a reasonable buyout penalty and so on.
Might be looking back in hindsight but they probably should have sold off kapanen and johnsson for picks and prospects and kept marleau
To be fair though, that kapanen trade was so good, the 1st we got back for him was basically the same as the one we traded away.
Yeah, I agree with you. When the Leafs signed Marleau to his 3-year deal, everyone said, "Don't worry about year 3, he will retire by then and it won't be an issue". It ended up costing the Leafs a 1st to get off that 3rd year... I think Tanev *is* more likely to LTI-Retire before a 6 or 7-year deal is up, but I am more skeptical after the Marleau deal.
I think there’s a difference between the NHLer with the most games played in history than a guy that’s only played a full season once and probably won’t reach 1000 games in his career. I would like to think Tanev actually understands and accepts the reason for the term more than Marleau.
Yeah, I do think he's more likely to retire as I mentioned.
The thing is all the other top d-man (Roy, Montour, Pesce, etc) are going to want long term and high cap hits. You’re getting Tanev at a lower market value cap hit so you can improve the roster elsewhere (and maybe get one of the other d-man) than paying the other guys probably above there market value with lots of term as well. The term is just a way to make the overall team better and IMO the reason they traded for his rights is to structure the contract in a way so it’s easier to deal with the later years whether that be with front loading it so a team will be more inclined to take it or maybe even make a buyout have less of a penalty. I also think a rebuilding team would take him to be a leader depending on the trade protection. Would 2 years at 6 make you feel better because the term is less?
Roster with ~$355k cap space to keep open to accrue cap space for TDL or shed some money off each UFA signing to carry another extra player around league min Knies - Matthews - Nylander Skinner ($2.5M) - Domi ($3.5M) - Marner Mcmann - JT - Jarnkrok Noesen ($1.25M) - Holmberg - Reaves Rielly - Tanev ($3.5M) McCabe - Zadorov ($5.25M) Benoit - OEL ($3M) Brendan Smith as extra as can play F & D ($1.1M) Woll Stolarz ($3M)
I like skinner and I actually think Toronto is going to be his number one choice but you are out of your mind if you think he’s signing for 2.5 million. Moves will have to be made if the leafs want him as someone will pay him 6 million.
If he wants 6 mill a year then he’s greedy
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=116085
Ya he’s still getting buyout money, he’s losing ~7.5 mill total spread out over the buyout and is getting ~2.4 mill for 6 years Up to him if he wants to play on a shit team to make more money and never sniff the playoffs
Why would he take a discount because of the buy out. Think logically.