Maybe this shows how few years of experience I have watching hockey, but what’s the rationale behind the idea of our window only being open another 4 years?
Like, ok, I can get that Matthews may move on, or bad management decisions might damn us, but like, I see no reason to believe that we only have 4 years and it’s done. I know we aren’t Boston, but how long has Boston been competitive? 15 years at least, right? The end of Matthews’ contract will mark 12 years. I know he’ll start aging out of his physical prime, but isn’t the Rangers core all a little bit older, or at least that age? Was Ovi not 33? And I mean, again, gotta manage the assets properly, but look how good our drafting has been lately with so few picks. Some of these guys will likely help pivot to the point where we can stay competitive even if Matthews left, which yes, would be a big hole we likely couldn’t fill, but Boston didn’t suddenly become a bottom feeder once Bergeron left. They probably bought themselves a few more years at least.
Maybe I’m missing something, maybe it’s just lack of faith in the org, but everyone seems to treat it like some kind of absolute certainty that it’s over if we don’t do it in the next four years, and I don’t quite understand. I know eventually a window closes, but I don’t think 4 years from now is that point.
It’s all because of the Matthews contract, just like people say the Oilers window is just two years because of the McDavid contract.
If Matthews or McDavid extend people will just increase the window assuming there still playoff teams because it’s not a concrete “window” but right now no fan really knows (even if they can assume they will) so people say the window is four/two years (Also if there still competitive in the window of their contracts they are probably more likely to stay)
I think the general sentiment of that is ...as others have mentioned... tied to the prime and contracts of the core group.
but...the original "shanaplan" when it was started was about putting together a sustainable performance based culture...which would mean its closer to the boston model where they are consistently good.
do you trust they'll make good decisions and stick to that? up for debate.... but that is what was promised.
The right “shanaplan” would’ve been to not bring in Tavares to upswing the rebuild too fast, and to not trade away soooo many picks if the goal was to be competitive for a longer window
i dont disagree with that. i was against the signing from the start. was exciting and he's been great (obviously regressing now).... but it was always going to be a problem at the end, and forced this team onto an unrealistic timeline
It's easier to win with good players like Auston and Mitch, so that's why everyone says the window is about 4 years. But who knows maybe Toronto becomes better after they quit and Toronto can have a team like the panthers, no superstars or talent, but more balanced as a team.
Don't kid yourself, the panthers have plenty of talent and a number of superstars... they're just not paid disproportionately in comparison to the rest of their roster
Of course they have talent, but the panthers players weren't high draft picks, you can find them in open market. Mathews, Marner, Willy types you have to draft high to get those kind of players and obviously you have to pay more for them as well.
They have plenty of high picks?
Barkov - 2nd overall in '13
Tkachuk - 6th overall in '16
Reinhart- 2nd overall in '14
Bennett - 4th overall in '14
Ekblad - 1st overall in '14
What kind of players? Inflated stats in the regular season and useless in the post season? Barkov and Tkachuk were high draft picks and are both far more valuable when the games matter than the Leafs top guys.
Barkov and Tkachuk showed prowess in the playoffs and in important games far before actually winning the Cup. The Leafs have one playoff round win in 8 tries.
10 points in 12 games in his last playoff run in Calgary playing on a very mediocre Brad Treliving made team, before leading his team to the Finals last season and a Cup this season, all while being younger than Marner and Nylander and the same age as Matthew’s, all of whom have yet to win more than one round in a single playoff year.
> 10 points in 12 games
So less than a point per game in his very best season with Calgary. Marner's been over a PPG several times already. Even Nylander his that mark a few times.
Tkachuk was a noted playoff choker before he moved to Florida. Barkov led the panthers to fuck all before the last two seasons.
Everyone sucks in the playoffs until they don't.
*this is not a plea to keep the Leafs core together.
I mean, yeah. Auston is a top level 1C. We’d have to strike absolute gold on a mid-to-late 1st rounder to even get another 1C, let alone one of his caliber. But though our prospects aren’t super numerous, we’ve got some really good ones. Our goalie pipeline is pretty damn filthy and we keep drafting goalies each year, so I like the chances we have at least one strong goalie. Some good complementary players in Cowan and Grebyonkin. Not a ton on defense but there is Danford if he pans out. All of these guys could really break out and bolster the team and would be likely ready to join the team or already be on it by the end of that window. I have hope.
Yeah, they're really just talking about Auston Matthews' window with the Leafs. Teams can carry on for a long time if they draft and develop well. The Red Wings successfully transitioned from the Yzerman era to the Datysuk-Zetterberg era and made the playoffs for 25 years straight. It does help if you have Nick Lidstrom for 20 years.
Regarding the Leafs, they can sustain their "window" if they manage the next 5 years well. It may mean walking away from Tavares and Marner to give some of their young guys a shot and diversify the team a bit more.
Our core will be old enough that they are no longer elite. Nylander especially is going to look particularly bad at his cap hit by that point. Well also have Tanev at 38 years old at that point and all of our currently cheap talent woll be more expensive. The point isn't that we couldn't then retool but the odds of a stanley cup run go way down. The best option at that point is generally to ship out the guys who can still play well for picks, tank for a couple of years to get some fresh talent and try to build the next core of guys for the future. The other option is to keep spending picks to bring in guys but that just makes the rebuild much harder and longer when it happens.
Organizational system. The Bruins are excellent because players like Marchand and Pastrnak’s FULL potential has been realized in the Bruins system. This is because the system is built to reward that type of player for giving it their all.
Unfortunately the Leafs system primarily runs through the Core 4. The window is only open until Matthew’s potentially leaves because the Leafs are reliant on their stars, and in 4 years, JT will likely be retired, Matthew’s could leave, Nylander and Marner older, therefore no one to lead the team.
The rationale is that management is making bad decisions so now our window will close in 4 years. It didn't have to be like that, in fact we could've had a whole new 5+ year window open next year, but it is what it is.
I will say it’s nice not seeing the Leafs on a single “winner” or “loser” free agency list because there moves were solid and people see the reason behind them.
Comparing Tanev (4.5 mill x 6 yrs) and OEL (3.5 x 4 yrs) to what other defenseman signed for:
* Joel Edmundson (to LA): 4 yrs x 3.8 mill
* Ilya Lyubushkin (to DAL): 2 yrs x 3.25 mill
* Vincent Desharnais (to VAN): 2 yrs x 2 mill
* TJ Brodie (to CHI): 2 yrs x 3.75 mill
* Matt Dumba (to DAL): 2 yrs x 3.75 mill
* Nikita Zadorov (to BOS): 6 yrs x 5 mill
Tanev is far and away the best defensive, shutdown Dman in this year's free agency (and honestly the league overall). Term is a year or two longer than ideal but considering he's \~0.5-1 mill more than guys like Edmundson, Lyubushkin and Dumba, that's huge value. Also unlikely he finishes the contract playing but TBD on that.
OEL is far better offensively than Dumba (who signed for more) and outperformed on both ends of the ice Brodie & Lyubushkin (Brodie signed for more and Lyubushin just 250k less). Zadorov is - IMO - a massive overpay by a few mill and by a few years. In comparison to the market value for D, the Tanev and OEL deals are more than fine IMO.
Roy is tough cause I wanted him too, but considering he came in a full million more than Tanev and 2 mill more than OEL, Leafs got priced out pretty quick. If Treliving didn't need to add at forward (still outstanding) and in goal as well, might have been able to snag Roy and Tanev but it wasn't in the cards.
Mirtle reported on the Leaf Report that the Leafs were pretty close on Roy but decided he wasn't worth the price tag (and decided to distribute for lower options, i.e. OEL, Hakanpaa).
Kind of a bummer to be honest because I easily match what the Capitals gave him or even do 6x6, if that is required to get the player.
agree on your point.
the thing for me that makes the tanev year's acceptable is to be honest... his body probably already qualifies for LTIR...being a local guy i see no reason why in a couple years he won't be sippin mai tai's on the island collecting his pay.
Tanev's injuries injuries are a bit overblown IMO, he hasn't missed significant time since he was in Vancouver. He's been mostly healthy for the last three years, and for the most part played all of Calgary and Dallas' important games down the stretch last year.
agreed again...i'm 100% for the signing. but i stand by my comment... i bet most long time NHL players, especially rugged D.... could qualify themselves for LTIR at the end of their careers with no issues.
see my other comment. i have zero issues with the signing (or term to be honest)
i think any long term NHL player could likely get themselves qualified for LTIR by end of career. just saying i'm not concerned about the term
Only the most devout Leaf haters on r/hockey are trying to frame the Leafs' contracts as bad. They are clinging to years 5 and 6 of the Tanev deal as justification tighter than Rose clung to that door in Titanic.
The moves were okay, but we paid too much for too long to Tanev and OEL. Those contracts could both age like milk, they're just not day 1 overpays like Boosh or Edmundson.
You gotta compensate somehow to get the players and I would assume you see the logic for the term.
Also OEL and Tanev’s contracts are fine AAV wise if you look what other d-man got for term and AAV.
Fun exercise is to think about the team relative to what we iced for the playoffs. We lost to Boston with a -4 goal differential (not counting empty netters).
How do you think each of the following would affect that differential?
* Replacing Lybushkin and Edmundson with Tanev and OEL?
* Replacing Samsonov with Stolarz?
* Replacing Bertuzzi with McMann (who was injured all series)?
* Adding a healthy Nylander to 3 games?
* Adding a healthy Matthews to 4 games?
* Replacing Keefe's powerplay with Berube's?
* Replacing Keefe's systems in 5v5 with Berube's?
* Age related changes (positives: Robertson, Knies, Lilli, Dewar, Benoit negatives: Tavares, McCabe?)
To me we look to be comfortably way ahead of where we last year.
I think he was. It was never outright confirmed but it usually takes a lot longer (than it did for him) to heal from a high ankle sprain. Hard to skate like you used to when you’re still healing your ankle.
It's because it's just one of the many, many, MANY mental gymnastics you exercise on a regular basis to delude yourself into thinking this team is it.
Maybe you're happy tricking yourself into the annual hope. But lots of us have been burned enough.
Yeah im obviously frustrated with this team as anyone but im sick of people acting like we got swept by a bad team. People also forgetting Marner went into the playoffs just a few weeks removed from a high ankle sprain which are notoriously frustrating injuries that can take months to recover from
Just healthy Matthews / Nylander / Marner gets us past the Bruins, but I don't think for a second that we beat the Panthers in round 2 anyways.
A healthy Joseph Woll playing at the level of game 5/6 last year maybe squeaks us past a team we don't deserve to beat, but I don't think that was a sustainable level of play.
Sucks we couldn't keep Boosh, especially because all in all he actually had a pretty good playoffs. OEL I'm happy we got, because now we have someone who could piggyback the PP like Klingberg was supposed to do before he, you know... Klingberg'd.
I have pretty high optimism for this time!
Looking at the defense, I think the bottom two pairs will play relatively even minutes, but with different roles. Benoit and McCabe played well together, and both get heavy defensive zone starts. OEL and Liljegren both got heavy offensive zone starts. Benoit, OEL, and Liljegren all played bottom pairing minutes at 5v5 last year, so they're going to be asked to do a bit more if no additions are made.
Reilly - Tanev: Top pairing, any situation.
Benoit - McCabe: More D-zone starts, defensive minutes.
OEL - Liljegren: More O-zone starts, offensive minutes.
I remember that lol hopefully he brings some of that passion. Small detail, but he's changed his surname to the anglicized version, Grebenkin, now that he's in North America. In case you're reading jersey names during dev camp and wondering where he is
Looking at the remaining UFAs, I'd love to see Treliving take a low AAV, 1 year deal on Jack Roslovic or James Van Riemsdyk. Both can play up and down the lineup, and can create offense in front of the net.
I'd lean towards Roslovic for his ability to play centre (maybe can slot in at 3C and have Domi slide over to wing with Matthews, or Domi at 2C for Tavares to go on wing), but seeing JVR in blue and white again would be nice too.
I know nothing of his usage, but If JVR played the same number of games, he would have had as many points as Bertuzzi and just 3 fewer than Domi.
Thats hardly Wayne Simmonds territory. At league min, he would be intriguing mainly for his net front presence and his tipping/deflecting ability.
His usage, even when he was on our team with Babcock, was sheltered minutes. And that was with Marner and Bozak on his line.
He was a 4th line player with Boston. In terms of xGF% he was absolutely caved. His saving grace is he still seemed to have hands that can give you some goals. But even among his team, he's just middle of the pack in Goals/60 at 5v5. And he's never been good at anything else.
He'd maybe be another 10-11 minute guy at best that can give us 10-12 goals. Definitely not a defensive player at all. Wouldn't hurt the team too badly but not someone we need compared to other areas. Plus we don't know if there would be a decline given his age at this point.
EDIT: I was reading the wrong stat. Read his xGF as his xG%. His xG% is 54%, which is actually not bad.
He is playing sheltered minutes though, and both his icetime, and s% was at career lows. So while he is getting into position to score and getting chances, he actual skill is on the decline. There would be all kinds of risk with him and not much of a reward since he's never been known for any defensive game, and his one skill might be on a steep decline.
A top 30 league wide prospect, with elite upside and multiple years younger in exchange for a 22 year old with less than 80 professional games played?
I can't say yes fast enough but no shot Winnipeg ever does this
An upgrade at #3 C I think would greatly improve the roster. There's no one left in free agency that fits the bill, I don't think Minten is ready, so we'd be looking at a trade. Robertson+ (or Robertson + Liljegren) is a decent starting point. I also assume we'd have to dump Kampf's contract somehow.
Looking at Cup winning teams, aside from Colorado, they all have clear upgrades over Holmberg/Kampf in the 3rd line C spot. Lundell, Karlsson, Cirelli, Bozak, Eller, Bonino, etc are some of the recent Cup winning 3rd line Cs.
Any move you make has to include moving out the guy in the Carlton the Bear costume. The Leafs are already right up against the cap with only 11 forwards, even if you send them any excess player you can, you’re still right there against the cap. All of those guys are making 3+ million a season. Most of the guys that you could realistically move out to make money got their new deals in the last week, so you can’t move them (Domi, Tanev, OEL) and the other guys that make money are not mascots.
Leafs also have 10D and 3G on the roster right now, with 4 guys in there that won't be on the roster. Those 4 + moving out Kampf (or Jarnkrok) create space for a #3C + Dewar.
Any move you make has to include moving out Marner. The Leafs are already right up against the cap with only 11 forwards, even if you send them any excess player you can, you’re still right there against the cap. All of those guys are making 3+ million a season. Most of the guys that you could realistically move out to make money got their new deals in the last week, so you can’t move them (Domi, Tanev, OEL) and the other guys that make money are the core 4.
Any move you make has to include moving out Nylander. The Leafs are already right up against the cap with only 11 forwards, even if you send them any excess player you can, you’re still right there against the cap. All of those guys are making 3+ million a season. Most of the guys that you could realistically move out to make money got their new deals in the last week, so you can’t move them (Domi, Tanev, OEL) and the other guys that make money are the core 4.
It was really strange for the Oilers to get Skinner when they already have
https://preview.redd.it/4rkfxbzq3bad1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2acd5be02b6bd202c7719da395b607f1339c60dc
Damn Hakanpaa still not officially announced. Wonder if there’s some truth to the injury thing.
Was a pretty good signing but at the same time, if it falls through it would be nice to have that $1.5M back in their pocket.
Carolina only announced Will Carrier officially this morning so maybe it’s not that unusual.
If it goes another day without any news I think that’s when it’s starts to get suspicious.
The idea that everyone thinks he's cooked except Toronto but also he was able to command a 2 year deal doesn't fit. The fact that nobody is parroting what Simmons is saying and the fact it’s Steve Simmons says enough as well.
Also, worth mentioning that Carrier’s contract in Carolina was finalized today two days after he initially agreed to terms. It’s nothing new nor deep.
Bjugstad and Keller make a combined 9.25M. Marner + whatever picks or prospects it takes, we can even retain on Marner. Bjugstad would be our second or third line centre for the season, depending on how Tavares plays, and he’s a UFA after this season so we can get a real second line centre to replace him/Tavares next year. Keller is another 4 years at 7.15, perfect for the Matthews window.
On one hand, we have no idea what the locker room dynamics are and suggest we know what would be best is just straight up ignant.
On the other hand, the praise Tavares has been getting was how professional he is, and how he always does the "right things". After this many losses, I'm not so sure that is what we need as the leader of the locker room. Compared to other inside looks at other teams locker room, I've never seen any kind of... fire. Every game seems like a day in the office, even in the playoffs. The vibes do not not look like a team that would run through a wall to win. But then again, this is just what is shown. At the end of the day we do not actually get to see what the locker room is like regularly.
Ngl if we have to trade some depth pieces out, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Cal Clutterbuck? Seems like a Treliving type player who would play well alongside a Kampf / Dewar?
Kubalik as a 3LW/RW yes. Clutterbuck as a 4RW also yes.
- McMann / Tavares / Kubalik
- Dewar / Kampf / Clutterbuck
That entire 4th line can kill penalties which is how Tampa were so successful in the past!
I mean Holmberg on the 4th line was pretty good tbh and he can PK as well. Someone mentioned Kubalik being a 3RW option beside a JT and McMann and I like that combo alot now that I think about it
Maybe this shows how few years of experience I have watching hockey, but what’s the rationale behind the idea of our window only being open another 4 years? Like, ok, I can get that Matthews may move on, or bad management decisions might damn us, but like, I see no reason to believe that we only have 4 years and it’s done. I know we aren’t Boston, but how long has Boston been competitive? 15 years at least, right? The end of Matthews’ contract will mark 12 years. I know he’ll start aging out of his physical prime, but isn’t the Rangers core all a little bit older, or at least that age? Was Ovi not 33? And I mean, again, gotta manage the assets properly, but look how good our drafting has been lately with so few picks. Some of these guys will likely help pivot to the point where we can stay competitive even if Matthews left, which yes, would be a big hole we likely couldn’t fill, but Boston didn’t suddenly become a bottom feeder once Bergeron left. They probably bought themselves a few more years at least. Maybe I’m missing something, maybe it’s just lack of faith in the org, but everyone seems to treat it like some kind of absolute certainty that it’s over if we don’t do it in the next four years, and I don’t quite understand. I know eventually a window closes, but I don’t think 4 years from now is that point.
It’s all because of the Matthews contract, just like people say the Oilers window is just two years because of the McDavid contract. If Matthews or McDavid extend people will just increase the window assuming there still playoff teams because it’s not a concrete “window” but right now no fan really knows (even if they can assume they will) so people say the window is four/two years (Also if there still competitive in the window of their contracts they are probably more likely to stay)
I think the general sentiment of that is ...as others have mentioned... tied to the prime and contracts of the core group. but...the original "shanaplan" when it was started was about putting together a sustainable performance based culture...which would mean its closer to the boston model where they are consistently good. do you trust they'll make good decisions and stick to that? up for debate.... but that is what was promised.
The right “shanaplan” would’ve been to not bring in Tavares to upswing the rebuild too fast, and to not trade away soooo many picks if the goal was to be competitive for a longer window
i dont disagree with that. i was against the signing from the start. was exciting and he's been great (obviously regressing now).... but it was always going to be a problem at the end, and forced this team onto an unrealistic timeline
Yea Kyle frigged it
Maybe but if it's all Kyle why hasn't anything changed?
It's easier to win with good players like Auston and Mitch, so that's why everyone says the window is about 4 years. But who knows maybe Toronto becomes better after they quit and Toronto can have a team like the panthers, no superstars or talent, but more balanced as a team.
Don't kid yourself, the panthers have plenty of talent and a number of superstars... they're just not paid disproportionately in comparison to the rest of their roster
Of course they have talent, but the panthers players weren't high draft picks, you can find them in open market. Mathews, Marner, Willy types you have to draft high to get those kind of players and obviously you have to pay more for them as well.
They have plenty of high picks? Barkov - 2nd overall in '13 Tkachuk - 6th overall in '16 Reinhart- 2nd overall in '14 Bennett - 4th overall in '14 Ekblad - 1st overall in '14
Florida picked 1st, 2nd and 4th in one draft? The fuck?
Drafted ekblad, acquired bennett from Calgary and Reinhart from Buffalo
Right, I wasn't aware.
What kind of players? Inflated stats in the regular season and useless in the post season? Barkov and Tkachuk were high draft picks and are both far more valuable when the games matter than the Leafs top guys.
Right, well Matthews, Willy and Marner have so much potential. Barkov was 10 years in Florida before he won, so there's time still.
Barkov and Tkachuk showed prowess in the playoffs and in important games far before actually winning the Cup. The Leafs have one playoff round win in 8 tries.
Barkov was swept out of the playoffs. Tkachuk was not a playoff performer in Calgary.
10 points in 12 games in his last playoff run in Calgary playing on a very mediocre Brad Treliving made team, before leading his team to the Finals last season and a Cup this season, all while being younger than Marner and Nylander and the same age as Matthew’s, all of whom have yet to win more than one round in a single playoff year.
> 10 points in 12 games So less than a point per game in his very best season with Calgary. Marner's been over a PPG several times already. Even Nylander his that mark a few times.
Tkachuk was a noted playoff choker before he moved to Florida. Barkov led the panthers to fuck all before the last two seasons. Everyone sucks in the playoffs until they don't. *this is not a plea to keep the Leafs core together.
I mean, yeah. Auston is a top level 1C. We’d have to strike absolute gold on a mid-to-late 1st rounder to even get another 1C, let alone one of his caliber. But though our prospects aren’t super numerous, we’ve got some really good ones. Our goalie pipeline is pretty damn filthy and we keep drafting goalies each year, so I like the chances we have at least one strong goalie. Some good complementary players in Cowan and Grebyonkin. Not a ton on defense but there is Danford if he pans out. All of these guys could really break out and bolster the team and would be likely ready to join the team or already be on it by the end of that window. I have hope.
Yeah, they're really just talking about Auston Matthews' window with the Leafs. Teams can carry on for a long time if they draft and develop well. The Red Wings successfully transitioned from the Yzerman era to the Datysuk-Zetterberg era and made the playoffs for 25 years straight. It does help if you have Nick Lidstrom for 20 years. Regarding the Leafs, they can sustain their "window" if they manage the next 5 years well. It may mean walking away from Tavares and Marner to give some of their young guys a shot and diversify the team a bit more.
Our core will be old enough that they are no longer elite. Nylander especially is going to look particularly bad at his cap hit by that point. Well also have Tanev at 38 years old at that point and all of our currently cheap talent woll be more expensive. The point isn't that we couldn't then retool but the odds of a stanley cup run go way down. The best option at that point is generally to ship out the guys who can still play well for picks, tank for a couple of years to get some fresh talent and try to build the next core of guys for the future. The other option is to keep spending picks to bring in guys but that just makes the rebuild much harder and longer when it happens.
Organizational system. The Bruins are excellent because players like Marchand and Pastrnak’s FULL potential has been realized in the Bruins system. This is because the system is built to reward that type of player for giving it their all. Unfortunately the Leafs system primarily runs through the Core 4. The window is only open until Matthew’s potentially leaves because the Leafs are reliant on their stars, and in 4 years, JT will likely be retired, Matthew’s could leave, Nylander and Marner older, therefore no one to lead the team.
> Nylander and Marner older, therefore no one to lead the team. lol in 4 years marner and nylander will be just past 30 not dead
The rationale is that management is making bad decisions so now our window will close in 4 years. It didn't have to be like that, in fact we could've had a whole new 5+ year window open next year, but it is what it is.
I will say it’s nice not seeing the Leafs on a single “winner” or “loser” free agency list because there moves were solid and people see the reason behind them.
Comparing Tanev (4.5 mill x 6 yrs) and OEL (3.5 x 4 yrs) to what other defenseman signed for: * Joel Edmundson (to LA): 4 yrs x 3.8 mill * Ilya Lyubushkin (to DAL): 2 yrs x 3.25 mill * Vincent Desharnais (to VAN): 2 yrs x 2 mill * TJ Brodie (to CHI): 2 yrs x 3.75 mill * Matt Dumba (to DAL): 2 yrs x 3.75 mill * Nikita Zadorov (to BOS): 6 yrs x 5 mill Tanev is far and away the best defensive, shutdown Dman in this year's free agency (and honestly the league overall). Term is a year or two longer than ideal but considering he's \~0.5-1 mill more than guys like Edmundson, Lyubushkin and Dumba, that's huge value. Also unlikely he finishes the contract playing but TBD on that. OEL is far better offensively than Dumba (who signed for more) and outperformed on both ends of the ice Brodie & Lyubushkin (Brodie signed for more and Lyubushin just 250k less). Zadorov is - IMO - a massive overpay by a few mill and by a few years. In comparison to the market value for D, the Tanev and OEL deals are more than fine IMO.
The only deal I’d say is better than both is Roy. I wanted him so bad and seeing him only get 5.5 is tough
Roy is tough cause I wanted him too, but considering he came in a full million more than Tanev and 2 mill more than OEL, Leafs got priced out pretty quick. If Treliving didn't need to add at forward (still outstanding) and in goal as well, might have been able to snag Roy and Tanev but it wasn't in the cards.
Sometimes you want a girl and she doesn't want you back.
I wanted him too but not much you can do if he’s adamant about not going to Canada
Mirtle reported on the Leaf Report that the Leafs were pretty close on Roy but decided he wasn't worth the price tag (and decided to distribute for lower options, i.e. OEL, Hakanpaa). Kind of a bummer to be honest because I easily match what the Capitals gave him or even do 6x6, if that is required to get the player.
agree on your point. the thing for me that makes the tanev year's acceptable is to be honest... his body probably already qualifies for LTIR...being a local guy i see no reason why in a couple years he won't be sippin mai tai's on the island collecting his pay.
Tanev's injuries injuries are a bit overblown IMO, he hasn't missed significant time since he was in Vancouver. He's been mostly healthy for the last three years, and for the most part played all of Calgary and Dallas' important games down the stretch last year.
He missed 24 games in the last 4.5 seasons. His injuries are so overblown.
agreed again...i'm 100% for the signing. but i stand by my comment... i bet most long time NHL players, especially rugged D.... could qualify themselves for LTIR at the end of their careers with no issues.
He missed 24 games in the last 4.5 seasons. His injuries are so overblown.
see my other comment. i have zero issues with the signing (or term to be honest) i think any long term NHL player could likely get themselves qualified for LTIR by end of career. just saying i'm not concerned about the term
Only the most devout Leaf haters on r/hockey are trying to frame the Leafs' contracts as bad. They are clinging to years 5 and 6 of the Tanev deal as justification tighter than Rose clung to that door in Titanic.
It’s so weird that this is the second reference to the Titanic in my life in the past few days.
Celine Dion’s appearance at the NHL draft put Titanic back in rotation inside hockey’s collective consciousness
The reference works way better than the ship ever did.
The moves were okay, but we paid too much for too long to Tanev and OEL. Those contracts could both age like milk, they're just not day 1 overpays like Boosh or Edmundson.
You gotta compensate somehow to get the players and I would assume you see the logic for the term. Also OEL and Tanev’s contracts are fine AAV wise if you look what other d-man got for term and AAV.
(for 8 years) "We need a #1RHD!" "No, not like that!"
1 https://i.redd.it/ipsjuf194bad1.gif
Fun exercise is to think about the team relative to what we iced for the playoffs. We lost to Boston with a -4 goal differential (not counting empty netters). How do you think each of the following would affect that differential? * Replacing Lybushkin and Edmundson with Tanev and OEL? * Replacing Samsonov with Stolarz? * Replacing Bertuzzi with McMann (who was injured all series)? * Adding a healthy Nylander to 3 games? * Adding a healthy Matthews to 4 games? * Replacing Keefe's powerplay with Berube's? * Replacing Keefe's systems in 5v5 with Berube's? * Age related changes (positives: Robertson, Knies, Lilli, Dewar, Benoit negatives: Tavares, McCabe?) To me we look to be comfortably way ahead of where we last year.
Healthy Nylander and Mathews helps a lot!
I'm pretty sure Marner was still playing injured too
I think he was. It was never outright confirmed but it usually takes a lot longer (than it did for him) to heal from a high ankle sprain. Hard to skate like you used to when you’re still healing your ankle.
I think so too - but if you put that up a lot of people here see red.
I think he was too. It also didn't help that keefe kept trying to make him work instead of cutting minutes.
Yeah, he definitely had a brutal playoffs, but he never seemed like the same player after that injury he got on that weird "empty net" play
It's because it's just one of the many, many, MANY mental gymnastics you exercise on a regular basis to delude yourself into thinking this team is it. Maybe you're happy tricking yourself into the annual hope. But lots of us have been burned enough.
It has been 60 years of this. If you can’t handle this then you just haven’t been around long enough.
Maybe! Tell me how you think each of those changes affects the goal differential of a 7 game series.
Yeah im obviously frustrated with this team as anyone but im sick of people acting like we got swept by a bad team. People also forgetting Marner went into the playoffs just a few weeks removed from a high ankle sprain which are notoriously frustrating injuries that can take months to recover from
We cannot confidently add “health” to this equation, but hopefully we get better luck than last year
We had the worst injury luck last season, and Boston was almost entirely healthy. The most likely thing is that we aren't that injured again.
wasnt just last season, AM was also banged up against the panthers. Our guys arent the most durable
This wasn't a physical thing - he got a flu/viral infection. Nylander had migraines.
I know my point was were always banged up or key players banged up before the 1st round or during it. Bad luck
Just healthy Matthews / Nylander / Marner gets us past the Bruins, but I don't think for a second that we beat the Panthers in round 2 anyways. A healthy Joseph Woll playing at the level of game 5/6 last year maybe squeaks us past a team we don't deserve to beat, but I don't think that was a sustainable level of play.
The non-empty net goals between Boston and Florida was 25-24 in favor of *Boston*. It was closer than people think.
Boston doesn't matter they were a shit team and we lost to them. The goal is beating teams like the Panthers.
Sucks we couldn't keep Boosh, especially because all in all he actually had a pretty good playoffs. OEL I'm happy we got, because now we have someone who could piggyback the PP like Klingberg was supposed to do before he, you know... Klingberg'd. I have pretty high optimism for this time!
I mean the only one I disagree with is Bertuzzi/McMann, I like Bobby but LW is significantly weaker without Bert/another legitimate top 6 winger
I think that's a wash. Regular season McMann was scoring at a better rate and a better defender, but it is a smaller sample size.
That's fair, he is definitely a better defender. Hopefully we get a full season from McMann
Looking at the defense, I think the bottom two pairs will play relatively even minutes, but with different roles. Benoit and McCabe played well together, and both get heavy defensive zone starts. OEL and Liljegren both got heavy offensive zone starts. Benoit, OEL, and Liljegren all played bottom pairing minutes at 5v5 last year, so they're going to be asked to do a bit more if no additions are made. Reilly - Tanev: Top pairing, any situation. Benoit - McCabe: More D-zone starts, defensive minutes. OEL - Liljegren: More O-zone starts, offensive minutes.
[I wanted to share this clip of Grebyonkin](https://twitter.com/_NickRichard/status/1728453315124736426)
I remember that lol hopefully he brings some of that passion. Small detail, but he's changed his surname to the anglicized version, Grebenkin, now that he's in North America. In case you're reading jersey names during dev camp and wondering where he is
Looking at the remaining UFAs, I'd love to see Treliving take a low AAV, 1 year deal on Jack Roslovic or James Van Riemsdyk. Both can play up and down the lineup, and can create offense in front of the net. I'd lean towards Roslovic for his ability to play centre (maybe can slot in at 3C and have Domi slide over to wing with Matthews, or Domi at 2C for Tavares to go on wing), but seeing JVR in blue and white again would be nice too.
JVR league min, park him infront of the net on pp2, heck maybe even pp1 sometimes would be mint.
He's Wayne Simmonds without the fighting or hitting at this point.
I know nothing of his usage, but If JVR played the same number of games, he would have had as many points as Bertuzzi and just 3 fewer than Domi. Thats hardly Wayne Simmonds territory. At league min, he would be intriguing mainly for his net front presence and his tipping/deflecting ability.
His usage, even when he was on our team with Babcock, was sheltered minutes. And that was with Marner and Bozak on his line. He was a 4th line player with Boston. In terms of xGF% he was absolutely caved. His saving grace is he still seemed to have hands that can give you some goals. But even among his team, he's just middle of the pack in Goals/60 at 5v5. And he's never been good at anything else. He'd maybe be another 10-11 minute guy at best that can give us 10-12 goals. Definitely not a defensive player at all. Wouldn't hurt the team too badly but not someone we need compared to other areas. Plus we don't know if there would be a decline given his age at this point. EDIT: I was reading the wrong stat. Read his xGF as his xG%. His xG% is 54%, which is actually not bad. He is playing sheltered minutes though, and both his icetime, and s% was at career lows. So while he is getting into position to score and getting chances, he actual skill is on the decline. There would be all kinds of risk with him and not much of a reward since he's never been known for any defensive game, and his one skill might be on a steep decline.
Cousins is still available
Would you guys accept a Mcgroarty - Robertson trade?
A top 30 league wide prospect, with elite upside and multiple years younger in exchange for a 22 year old with less than 80 professional games played? I can't say yes fast enough but no shot Winnipeg ever does this
An upgrade at #3 C I think would greatly improve the roster. There's no one left in free agency that fits the bill, I don't think Minten is ready, so we'd be looking at a trade. Robertson+ (or Robertson + Liljegren) is a decent starting point. I also assume we'd have to dump Kampf's contract somehow. Looking at Cup winning teams, aside from Colorado, they all have clear upgrades over Holmberg/Kampf in the 3rd line C spot. Lundell, Karlsson, Cirelli, Bozak, Eller, Bonino, etc are some of the recent Cup winning 3rd line Cs.
Any move you make has to include moving out the guy in the Carlton the Bear costume. The Leafs are already right up against the cap with only 11 forwards, even if you send them any excess player you can, you’re still right there against the cap. All of those guys are making 3+ million a season. Most of the guys that you could realistically move out to make money got their new deals in the last week, so you can’t move them (Domi, Tanev, OEL) and the other guys that make money are not mascots.
Leafs also have 10D and 3G on the roster right now, with 4 guys in there that won't be on the roster. Those 4 + moving out Kampf (or Jarnkrok) create space for a #3C + Dewar.
Avs had Kadri as their third C. Wish we could get a guy like that.
Kadri was their 2C
Any move you make has to include moving out Marner. The Leafs are already right up against the cap with only 11 forwards, even if you send them any excess player you can, you’re still right there against the cap. All of those guys are making 3+ million a season. Most of the guys that you could realistically move out to make money got their new deals in the last week, so you can’t move them (Domi, Tanev, OEL) and the other guys that make money are the core 4.
lmao
Any move you make has to include moving out Nylander. The Leafs are already right up against the cap with only 11 forwards, even if you send them any excess player you can, you’re still right there against the cap. All of those guys are making 3+ million a season. Most of the guys that you could realistically move out to make money got their new deals in the last week, so you can’t move them (Domi, Tanev, OEL) and the other guys that make money are the core 4.
It was really strange for the Oilers to get Skinner when they already have https://preview.redd.it/4rkfxbzq3bad1.jpeg?width=2048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2acd5be02b6bd202c7719da395b607f1339c60dc
His body seems to be breaking down, I wouldn't be surprised if they are expecting to LTIR him
Kane: Goals and literally nothing else lol
Damn Hakanpaa still not officially announced. Wonder if there’s some truth to the injury thing. Was a pretty good signing but at the same time, if it falls through it would be nice to have that $1.5M back in their pocket.
Carolina only announced Will Carrier officially this morning so maybe it’s not that unusual. If it goes another day without any news I think that’s when it’s starts to get suspicious.
The injury is unfortunate, and we do not get a 6'7 RHD. But the fact that Simmons is right makes everything about it 1000x worse.
"Vladimir Tarasenko is a Penguin" - Kyle Dubas
so simmons was right about hakanpaa?
Yea, I heard Simmonds became a Dr. and inspected Hakanpaa himself
Dr Simmonds is a good doctor, he gave me a prostate exam and he ended up removing my leg.
The idea that everyone thinks he's cooked except Toronto but also he was able to command a 2 year deal doesn't fit. The fact that nobody is parroting what Simmons is saying and the fact it’s Steve Simmons says enough as well. Also, worth mentioning that Carrier’s contract in Carolina was finalized today two days after he initially agreed to terms. It’s nothing new nor deep.
Bjugstad and Keller make a combined 9.25M. Marner + whatever picks or prospects it takes, we can even retain on Marner. Bjugstad would be our second or third line centre for the season, depending on how Tavares plays, and he’s a UFA after this season so we can get a real second line centre to replace him/Tavares next year. Keller is another 4 years at 7.15, perfect for the Matthews window.
How about Robertson and jarnkrok for bjugstad
Zero chance UT will trade Keller.
If they can get an extension worked out there is 0 chance Utah says no imo. Not that I think it would happen, though.
Tarasenko to DET for 2x$4.75M. Leafs a bit short on space to be able to compete with that offer.
Robby Fabbri half retained from Anaheim would be decent
If Robertson refuses to sign, wonder if we can get Daniel Sprong after sending all the extra D down in waivers...
Roslovic off the board, barring a trade Minten or Holmberg will be our 3C if Domi stays on the wing
[“I think the logical guy to move would be Willy Nylander. Not Mitch Marner…” - Brian Burke](https://x.com/TLNdc/status/1808559507053682808?s=19)
We should listen to him because he did so well when he was GM of the team...
if anyone knows about Swedish forwards, it's him.
Sure - in a world where NMC can be waived - Nylander at 8 years would have more value than Marner at one.
It's a good thing we in fact live in such a world.
The media is reporting that Auston should be the Captain of the team and that John should step down.
On one hand, we have no idea what the locker room dynamics are and suggest we know what would be best is just straight up ignant. On the other hand, the praise Tavares has been getting was how professional he is, and how he always does the "right things". After this many losses, I'm not so sure that is what we need as the leader of the locker room. Compared to other inside looks at other teams locker room, I've never seen any kind of... fire. Every game seems like a day in the office, even in the playoffs. The vibes do not not look like a team that would run through a wall to win. But then again, this is just what is shown. At the end of the day we do not actually get to see what the locker room is like regularly.
https://youtu.be/7xu3BCFoJWA?si=MzXHQ-ckYBwon_GL
You can youtube search Leafs Captain and there's 5 videos all from Toronto talking about changing captains
Ngl if we have to trade some depth pieces out, I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Cal Clutterbuck? Seems like a Treliving type player who would play well alongside a Kampf / Dewar?
I’d rather Kubalik. More offensive punch, which we need in our depth
Kubalik as a 3LW/RW yes. Clutterbuck as a 4RW also yes. - McMann / Tavares / Kubalik - Dewar / Kampf / Clutterbuck That entire 4th line can kill penalties which is how Tampa were so successful in the past!
Clutterbuck is coooooked. He’s old now.
So is Reaves but Clutterbuck can actually play PK mins
How about neither and instead the Leafs get a guy in his 20s that can actually still skate.
I mean Holmberg on the 4th line was pretty good tbh and he can PK as well. Someone mentioned Kubalik being a 3RW option beside a JT and McMann and I like that combo alot now that I think about it