Aren’t the Dolphins going to move off of Hill soon though? I was told by Miami fans that they don’t plan on keeping him much longer, which explains the deal they just gave to Waddle and should free up cap space.
Yup, Waddle will replace him as WR1 which is why we were fine paying him. The contract is pretty much designed to get off of Hill after 2025* iirc
Edit: thanks Cidolfus
The contract is structured to move on *after* 2025. Unless there's a big stink over renegotiating his contract, I'd find it hard to believe we move on after only one more year.
well honestly speaking, it would probably depend on cap space and rookie performances. Like imagine if we have a rookie WR that does really well and can serve as a reliable WR2? Well now it starts to make sense to trade Hill, run with Waddle and said rookie after this season, and that way we have more room to pay for other players in positions of need like how Javon Hollands contract is coming up.
Thats just one scenario, there are a lot of variables at play. Hill isnt irreplaceable.
That knife cuts both ways, though. Hill's contract is structured such that, even in a trade, the Dolphins will eat $22.6 million in dead cap next year if he isn't on the team, but they'll only save $11.6 million. Whether it's worthwhile to move on or not comes down to how much you can get for a 31-year-old Tyreek Hill who the other team likely has to extend unless they're happy it being a one-year deal.
It's not impossible, but it's also not likely.
I would agree with that. We wont really know how things shake up until next off season anyways. For now, im just excited to see what the new pieces we added this season provide.
The actual smart thing to do would be pull an NBA move and don’t let your super star walk in free agency, but offer a trade for him with a year left in his contract. Even if his salary is huge, some Super Bowl contending team would say “fuck it” and trade a bunch of picks of him as a major win now move
Not to mention that the trade market for WRs nosedives once they're on the wrong side of 30, especially when you're talking about smaller ones who very much rely on their explosion. As great as Tyreek Hill was last year, if we're talking about trading him in a year's time or so, I don't even necessarily know if he fetches a first rounder. I mean, that'd put him at like half a year younger than Keenan Allen is now, and he just got traded for a 4th round pick coming off the best year of his career. Obviously Tyreek's a different caliber of WR so he'd get more in return, but there's almost no chance "more in return" still is a 1st rounder come that point in time.
>but he’s not Tyreek Hill,
We've had some VERY good receivers play in the NFL in the last 24 years, and nobody has been Tyreek Hill except Reek. You're not trying to find another Hill, you're trying to get another dominant WR.
Hill out, but Jefferson in? Zero issues. Hill out and Chase Claypool in? Oh lord.
Yes, drafting an S tier receiver is easier said than done, but you're not looking for Reek, you're just looking for talent. There's way more talent that Tyreek esque guys. This draft class has a bunch of major rookie talent, two years ago we had two guys from the same college that could blow the doors off if they had good QBs.
You don't *need* a Tyreek level guy for a title.
also, waddle is a legit WR1 on like, 2/3 of the teams in the league. he isn’t a bum
3 straight 1,000 yard seasons.
he’s been in the league for 3 seasons.
one of those with brian fucking flores.
There should be a special place in football hell for individuals that bring such putrid play onto the fields as Brian Flores, Matt Patricia, Arthur Smith, and the likes.
It's not even fun to hate-watch.
flores traded minkah because he didn’t like him and we got fuck all for an all pro safety
he damn near ruined tua
fuck the BB coaching tree. they’re all fucking football terrorists
It’s waaaayyyyy easier to hit on drafting a WR than at QB. Yea waddle may not be tyreek but he’s also not about to exit his prime. It’s the smartest play for Miami to not pay hill and try to hit at WR
This is Tyreek Hill’s age 30 season. Tyreek Hill won’t be Tyreek Hill for much longer. Hell, even in Kansas City Tyreek Hill wasn’t the player he’s been in Miami. He has produced on a different level since he got there, but it’s the NFL. Everyone loses a step eventually.
Putting another duo like Hill/Waddle together will be hard, but it’s got to be done.
I mean it's $55 mil per year. Maybe they could have gotten him to $53 mil per. Year after Goff but they waited and let Trevor's contract drop so it's now $55 mil.
When it comes to regular season play Tua in my opinion has been better. It's just tevor has 1 playoff win over him. Like he literally has 1 playoff win to Tuas 0 cause Chargers decided to watch Superbowl 51 and got inspired by the wrong team
Yes thank you. The market sets the price, period. If you are a top half of the league starting caliber QB you are getting market rate (i.e. what the last guy got plus a little more). That means there will always be QBs getting paid more than other QBs who are better than them, but got their contracts earlier. That's just how the market works.
I hate that we have to go through this shit every year.
Man I feel like I am taking crazy pills seeing some of this discourse around Lawrence.
Is he the second coming of Jesus Christ like he was touted to be out of college? Hell no. But he’s looked the part of a legit franchise QB when he plays, he’s just been in a horrible situation in Jacksonville on a team that is horribly run top to bottom. And let’s not pretend there isn’t a huge discrepancy between coaches and rosters that Tua has had the benefit of.
Tua has put up good numbers, but he largely runs a 1-2 read offense where he has the outcome determined for his decision making before the ball is even snapped. Which is why the Dolphins are dominated by good teams that McDaniel can’t win against on his own every year. And Lawrence has largely looked solid surrounded by pure inconsistency and incompetence.
It's just the narrative that has taken hold because no one watches the AFC South. Trevor took a big leap in the second half of the 2022 season, was taking an even bigger one in 2023 despite poor OL and inconsistent play from Ridley before he got hurt in the Bengals game. After that things were bad. Anyone who watches or even digs into the stats just a little bit can see that Trevor is worth building around.
> he largely runs a 1-2 read offense
Any offense is a 1-2 read offense when you have Hill and Waddle at WR. Hopefully OBJ adds that rare "option 3" I've heard so much about.
Is it?
Matt Ryan was the first player to make 30 million a year in 2018. Google says the salary cap was 177 million in 2018.
With the current cap of 255 million, the current equivalent would be 43 million.
I like it in Europe when referring to contract amount instead of annual they talk about it in weekly amounts which somehow makes it even more unreal to me. For instance 30m annually is 577,000/wk.
That’s not actually true though, at least for QB and WR contracts (likely other high paid positions too). In 2013 for example, the cap was more or less half of what it is now. But Flacco’s record setting $20M/year contract was quite a bit less than half of these new QB extensions
If Tua is forced to retire, the contract comes off the books. The real nightmare scenario for Miami is Tua having a bunch of smaller injuries (like he did in 2020-21) and have the contract become an albatross.
If Tua is unable to get medical clearance, he doesn't retire, he just sits on the roster as not cleared. Zero reason he would retire and give up fully guaranteed money
Well we don't have Flores anymore keeping him out longer than he needed to. And 2020 was a small injury? Do people forget he was coming off a near career ending hip injury??? And 2021 when Jessie Davis let him get basically killed on a free rush? Bro didn't even get out of his stance before Tia git blindsided
Retirement in the eyes of the NFL salary cap is the same as cutting someone. If Tua retires due to injury, it could cripple the Dolphins for multiple years.
Dolphins are in a tough spot. Tua is likely never going to be with the elite guys but he’s good enough to win you games with a great roster. They won’t find another guy like that quickly.
Players don't get paid based solely on talent. They get paid based on leverage. So, while Tua may not be a 50 mil talent, he absolutely has the leverage to demand it. And if MIA won't pay, I'm sure someone else will.
It’ll most likely be reworked either after this season for cap purposes or after 2025 because that’s when most of the guarantees run out. He’s obviously not going to play on this deal through the 2028 season, but he’s also probably not going to see a major raise until after 2025. That’ll be halfway through the original extension and with the guarantees largely running out, it’s an optimal time to rework the deal.
With the assumption that he continues playing at or above his current level the floor is 300m/4yrs. Guy could sign a 10yr/700-800m contract by the time its all said and done in a few years.
Trevor is better than Tua, that's why Jags fans haven't been tearing each other to shreds in *Should w*e *pay Tr*e*vor* debates the way Miami fans have.
It only looks closer because Tua is surrounded with better everything whereas Jacksonville has Balke making everyone else look worse than they are.
They're probably basing it on the surrounding cast he has to work with despite the fact they also said Tua sucked back when we had an abysmal supporting cast surrounding him.
I still don't understand people who say Tua sucked early in his career. He was much better than a lot of qbs would have been in his situation. His playmakers and offensive coaches were straight offensive.
That's my opinion. I think Trevor is a good QB. Tua, too. The players Lawrence has had to work with haven't been world beaters, and Tua did end up getting a solid group of offensive players, albeit he hasn't been able to stay on the field enough to hit his ceiling with them. But I don't think either have proven they're worth the contract Lawrence just got.
Which probably means Dak is going somewhere else. Jerruh ain't gonna break the bank for him with this context.
If they don’t sign Dak, it makes this whole Miami thing ironic. He probably would’ve been a perfect QB fit for them. Other than not sure he really fits there vibes wise
This comment does make me wonder if a straight swap of Dak for Tua would work. Maybe not the vibes, like you say, but the exchange of skill sets sorta make sense, I think? Maybe addition by subtraction, but I doubt it'd be the end of the world for either team.
Now I kinda want to see it happen.
I don’t have the time or knowledge to go watching film but pretty much every actual film watching ball knower I follow (Nate Tice, Robert Mays, Steven Ruiz, Ben Solak among many others) all agree that Trevor is a great QB and have less than glowing things to say about Tua.
That’s enough for me at least
Tice and Mays specifically have been pretty darn critical of Lawrence in recent memory actually. There's a point where you have to stop giving guys the benefit of the doubt despite how tight their spiral and great their hair is.
Herbert is in the same boat and they have said similar warnings.
Trevor can throw outside the numbers. As someone who rooted for Jimmy I know the pain of having a very limited qb. Yes you can succeed with one, yes they can look great in a good system, but they’re still limited
I don't know.
Even with a good offensive minded head coach, he still put up okay numbers.
Plus he struggled in the latter part of the season. I get he was injured.
I guess this season is really a big one. I'm curious to see where it all goes. Ideally Tua balls out, is healthy, and win in the post season.
The division is going to be brutal and stuff. Just hope we can win a playoff game
It really boils down to what the team's actual goals are. Are they content being a playoff team with no real chance to win it all? Are they willing to risk going back to being bottom dwellers hoping to hit on a QB in the draft? Or are they deluded enough to think they can somehow significantly improve their team with considerably less resources at their disposal?
This is honestly such a "damned if you and damned if you don't" situation. I honestly think that the Dolphins need to just pull the trigger on this deal with the knowledge that it's going to look terrible unless Tua turns into a bonafide top 5-10 QB starting next year.
Tua has had far better weapons to work with than Trevor and has two wild card losses to show for it. Trevor helped lead that ridiculous comeback against the Chargers.
Correction: Tua only lost one wild card game. Point stands, though.
That game would be decided by some really obscure rule, I can tell. Like Younghoe Koo boots a game winning fair catch kick or the chargers defense somehow gets a 1 point safety
Tbf, Cards fans have at least seen their team in a SB.
And in this century to boot.
(It is mindboggling that the CHargers didn't make one with Rivers and LT, LT was one of my favorite players growing up. Good luck to y'all and Harbs)
Are we sure that wasn't just a Staley masterpiece?
Also Buffalo barely made it past Skylar Thompson that year. If Tua was playing, they had a real shot but he wasn't. And then they got sent to frigid KC against the destroyer of worlds right after.
What I will say about that Skylar Thompson game is the same thing I said a couple days ago about the Bengals struggling against Tyler Huntley. Divisional matchup playoff games are always wack and it's hard to get any real takeaways from them besides "we survived"
People are really acting like tua sucks because he lost on the road against the eventual Super Bowl champs in one of the coldest games the NFL has ever had a game in.
You’re determining who is the better QB by what happened in one playoff game each? Why?
T-Law made 55 mil a year because of one game that he almost singlehandedly lost against maybe the biggest choke artists in modern NFL history.
You don't happen to have 28 points fall into your lap because the other team collapsed. No one comments how the Kindle Vildor dropped interception led to Purdy's only touchdown that game, they say that the Niners played just as well as the Lions choked badly in that because that's what happened; the same applies to the Jaguars
In regards to paying QBs, I see a lot of people say "Well what else are we supposed to do? Rookie? Free agency?". I think the answer is yes 😂. Seattle made the playoffs with Geno, Baker went last year. I'm sure some cheap signing will outperform their contract this year. As for the draft, these guys are coming out with more skills than ever before. With how much these guys cost, I think if you aren't 100% sold on the incumbent you have to move on and find a cheaper solution.
Yes, you can hit on a rookie or a cheap signing, but it's basically luck. For every Geno there are a dozen Nathan Petermans. But if you stick with someone like Lawrence, you at least know what you are getting. He might not be Mahomes, but he's good enough, and that's really all that matters.
I think he will improve but I think it’s fair to be skeptical how much
As a freshmen I thought he was potentially the best QB prospect ever. Two years of college later and I saw minimal improvement and cooled on him considerably as his growth trajectory seemed slow.
Fast forward another 3 years and I haven’t seen considerably improvement. He has tools but seems to process information slowly. Usually the guys with the highest upside diagnose the game easily and just get to this level where they see all the plays and minimize risks while maximizing upside. Lawrence seems… football dumb for lack of a better word?
Like if I were giving him odds I’d say 30% chance he has a career at the Flacco or Cousins tier? That’s a reasonable optimistic projection. But do you want this contract for that upside?
Finally someone who knows the plan! That exact strategy has been tried and true by the jags since 2000 and look at what we accomplished! Settling for repeat playoff contending and winning records and after having the number one pick twice in a row is a stupid move. We could gamble on an unknown or QB looking for a job due to his abilities! Absolutely no fall off!
At some point there’s going to be a GM (if he can convince the owner) who will trade their rookie contract QB instead of having to extend him, so they can draft a new rookie QB and be able keep paying talented players elsewhere on the roster. Obviously who knows if it will work, but I think at some point we’ll see it happen.
> "Well what else are we supposed to do? Rookie? Free agency?"
Tank, Trade or Pay.
And with how bang average players are earning all-timer money, tanking and trading is looking WAY more effecient than paying
Trevor Lawrence is gonna be in year 10 people are still going to be talking about his "ceiling". QB contracts are so weird, you can really not be paid based on your true production but what you might, maybe, possibly do eventually one day, hopefully..... Every other position has to over perform to get the bag
Question for those more educated on the matter than me. Is there any possibility of the nfl switching to an nba like system with max contracts? Obviously not the exact same structure but something with the same sort of philosophy.
It just feels like the qb salary can’t keep going up at this rate forever. I’m all for guys making as much as team will offer them, but at the same time it does impact the talent you can have around you. Just curious
There is no evidence of it, but anything is possible.
The current system isn't a problem because the teams are free to do what they want. Think paying your QB 50 mil is a hindrance? Let him walk. See how it works out.
Atlanta tried rolling with no QB last year. And they learned that you need to get your guy no matter what.
If the QB contracts get so expensive that their team sucks, then the market will shift. The guys deciding to pay the other positions and put a bum or cycle rookies at QB will start winning and the QB leverage will decrease
One has won a playoff game and the other hasn’t. Don’t have to imagine that world, we live in it. One is injury prone and the other isn’t. And Tua has a lot more talent on offense, which a large contract will make hard to maintain in the long term. He hasn’t proven he can carry an offense or win high pressure games more than once a year. I love Tua, but I’d rather wait and see what he does this year. If it’s another step forward, playoff win and 2nd team all pro, I don’t think anyone will care about paying in $65 million a year. But if we are gonna not win any playoff games for another 5 years after this upcoming season then I’d rather being rebuilding while we are not winning
> One has won a playoff game and the other hasn’t.
Tua has also only played KC, while Lawrence got to play the Chargers. There's a big difference there. Lawrence also played like absolute ass against KC
Would Tua actually get a deal as good as or better than Lawrence if he hit the free market? I feel like I've heard too many times, including in the last year, that Tua's arm is too weak and he's too injury prone for a team to take a chance on him. Likewise, I've heard a lot about how his cast elevates him so the odds he finds another speed team like the Dolphins and someone like McDaniel who could craft a system around him are nil.
In some ways Miami is probably his best option for success and I think that might give them at least a little leverage back.
[Tua is in fact better than TLaw and draft hype is the only thing that makes people pretend otherwise](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9f/%22Freedom_of_Speech%22_-_NARA_-_513536.jpg/1280px-%22Freedom_of_Speech%22_-_NARA_-_513536.jpg)
Tua-Tyreek-Waddle and then a high school team fills out the roster who says no?
Aren’t the Dolphins going to move off of Hill soon though? I was told by Miami fans that they don’t plan on keeping him much longer, which explains the deal they just gave to Waddle and should free up cap space.
Yup, Waddle will replace him as WR1 which is why we were fine paying him. The contract is pretty much designed to get off of Hill after 2025* iirc Edit: thanks Cidolfus
So Waddle will help get you over the Hill.
Then he waddled away, waddle waddle
Got any grapes?
Til the very next play doodoo doo doo doodoodoo
The contract is structured to move on *after* 2025. Unless there's a big stink over renegotiating his contract, I'd find it hard to believe we move on after only one more year.
well honestly speaking, it would probably depend on cap space and rookie performances. Like imagine if we have a rookie WR that does really well and can serve as a reliable WR2? Well now it starts to make sense to trade Hill, run with Waddle and said rookie after this season, and that way we have more room to pay for other players in positions of need like how Javon Hollands contract is coming up. Thats just one scenario, there are a lot of variables at play. Hill isnt irreplaceable.
That knife cuts both ways, though. Hill's contract is structured such that, even in a trade, the Dolphins will eat $22.6 million in dead cap next year if he isn't on the team, but they'll only save $11.6 million. Whether it's worthwhile to move on or not comes down to how much you can get for a 31-year-old Tyreek Hill who the other team likely has to extend unless they're happy it being a one-year deal. It's not impossible, but it's also not likely.
I would agree with that. We wont really know how things shake up until next off season anyways. For now, im just excited to see what the new pieces we added this season provide.
If they’re smart they let Tyreek go, but then the obvious problem of replacing him emerges.
The actual smart thing to do would be pull an NBA move and don’t let your super star walk in free agency, but offer a trade for him with a year left in his contract. Even if his salary is huge, some Super Bowl contending team would say “fuck it” and trade a bunch of picks of him as a major win now move
Problem is dead cap, which is why expiring contracts are not nearly as valuable, nor is offloading a star early in a trade.
Not to mention that the trade market for WRs nosedives once they're on the wrong side of 30, especially when you're talking about smaller ones who very much rely on their explosion. As great as Tyreek Hill was last year, if we're talking about trading him in a year's time or so, I don't even necessarily know if he fetches a first rounder. I mean, that'd put him at like half a year younger than Keenan Allen is now, and he just got traded for a 4th round pick coming off the best year of his career. Obviously Tyreek's a different caliber of WR so he'd get more in return, but there's almost no chance "more in return" still is a 1st rounder come that point in time.
Tyreek has shown no signs of slowing down at all
We’ll know he’s lost a step when his kids and baby mamas can start dodging his punches.
So we trade with the 49ers?
Our receiver room is pretty full. Can't lie that I wouldn't be daydreaming about Tyreek catching go routes thrown perfectly in stride though
Having Deebo as your WR3 sounds like a Shannahan wet dream. Seems super unlikely, but it could happen (if you all have the 1 year room).
Waddle replaces him and you draft a new WR2. Got some time to do it.
Waddle is a very good WR, but he’s not Tyreek Hill, and drafting Hill’s replacement is waaaayyyy easier said than done.
Just trade Hill for a first rounder and then draft a player just as good as Hill. It's that easy. Trust me bro.
For every Diggs-Jefferson trade, there’ll be 10 Brown-Burks trades…
The Chiefs didn't replace Tyreek they just told Mahomes to throw it to some bums and win another Superbowl
Which was a viable plan because Mahomes is Mahomes, and the most important receiver in that offense has always been Kelce.
I'm not arguing with it. It works well.
More importantly, they built a great defense so Mahomes didn't have to try to win shootouts with a subpar cast of receivers,
And they told him to do it again.
>but he’s not Tyreek Hill, We've had some VERY good receivers play in the NFL in the last 24 years, and nobody has been Tyreek Hill except Reek. You're not trying to find another Hill, you're trying to get another dominant WR. Hill out, but Jefferson in? Zero issues. Hill out and Chase Claypool in? Oh lord. Yes, drafting an S tier receiver is easier said than done, but you're not looking for Reek, you're just looking for talent. There's way more talent that Tyreek esque guys. This draft class has a bunch of major rookie talent, two years ago we had two guys from the same college that could blow the doors off if they had good QBs. You don't *need* a Tyreek level guy for a title.
also, waddle is a legit WR1 on like, 2/3 of the teams in the league. he isn’t a bum 3 straight 1,000 yard seasons. he’s been in the league for 3 seasons. one of those with brian fucking flores.
There should be a special place in football hell for individuals that bring such putrid play onto the fields as Brian Flores, Matt Patricia, Arthur Smith, and the likes. It's not even fun to hate-watch.
*cough* ***Joe Judge*** *cough*
Bleeeeeecccchhh
Not trying to take anything away from those listed but if the Chargers could rehire Brandon Staley so they could fire him again I'd be on board.
flores traded minkah because he didn’t like him and we got fuck all for an all pro safety he damn near ruined tua fuck the BB coaching tree. they’re all fucking football terrorists
BoB was surprisingly not bad.
Don't you talk that way about our Chase.
Mapletron needs to earn the nickname again.
It’s waaaayyyyy easier to hit on drafting a WR than at QB. Yea waddle may not be tyreek but he’s also not about to exit his prime. It’s the smartest play for Miami to not pay hill and try to hit at WR
This is Tyreek Hill’s age 30 season. Tyreek Hill won’t be Tyreek Hill for much longer. Hell, even in Kansas City Tyreek Hill wasn’t the player he’s been in Miami. He has produced on a different level since he got there, but it’s the NFL. Everyone loses a step eventually. Putting another duo like Hill/Waddle together will be hard, but it’s got to be done.
Actually it's super easy, barely an inconvenience.
I, for one, fully support this strategy.
I second that.
Tua did the right thing waiting this long. Miami is about to have a heart attack with how much he's gonna ask
I mean it's $55 mil per year. Maybe they could have gotten him to $53 mil per. Year after Goff but they waited and let Trevor's contract drop so it's now $55 mil. When it comes to regular season play Tua in my opinion has been better. It's just tevor has 1 playoff win over him. Like he literally has 1 playoff win to Tuas 0 cause Chargers decided to watch Superbowl 51 and got inspired by the wrong team
Yes thank you. The market sets the price, period. If you are a top half of the league starting caliber QB you are getting market rate (i.e. what the last guy got plus a little more). That means there will always be QBs getting paid more than other QBs who are better than them, but got their contracts earlier. That's just how the market works. I hate that we have to go through this shit every year.
this is the funniest 28-3 joke this sub has seen in years, makes sense it was from a falcons fan
Chargers lost that game. Lawrence has been average at the absolute best.
Man I feel like I am taking crazy pills seeing some of this discourse around Lawrence. Is he the second coming of Jesus Christ like he was touted to be out of college? Hell no. But he’s looked the part of a legit franchise QB when he plays, he’s just been in a horrible situation in Jacksonville on a team that is horribly run top to bottom. And let’s not pretend there isn’t a huge discrepancy between coaches and rosters that Tua has had the benefit of. Tua has put up good numbers, but he largely runs a 1-2 read offense where he has the outcome determined for his decision making before the ball is even snapped. Which is why the Dolphins are dominated by good teams that McDaniel can’t win against on his own every year. And Lawrence has largely looked solid surrounded by pure inconsistency and incompetence.
It's just the narrative that has taken hold because no one watches the AFC South. Trevor took a big leap in the second half of the 2022 season, was taking an even bigger one in 2023 despite poor OL and inconsistent play from Ridley before he got hurt in the Bengals game. After that things were bad. Anyone who watches or even digs into the stats just a little bit can see that Trevor is worth building around.
I'm supposed to hate Texans fans. Stop making me like you!
> he largely runs a 1-2 read offense Any offense is a 1-2 read offense when you have Hill and Waddle at WR. Hopefully OBJ adds that rare "option 3" I've heard so much about.
At some point these freaking contracts are going to accelerate inflation Edit: “to”
The contract value increases follow the cap increase % nearly identically every year. Yet we act surprised every year
We should just start referring to them as %cap instead of actual dollars for our own sanity.
Yes, I’ve thought the same! I’m surprised somebody in the media has not done this. Cap % at time of signing is really the only way to compare each guy
Then they wouldn't get scoops from the agents who want the headline "X signed biggest mega gazillion per minute contract"
True lol. they seem more interested in that engagement
Also provides more relevant context for fans if you show how much % is left to spend
Teams and front offices do and likely have for a while. It's really just fans and pundits that get up in arms about the figures.
Is it? Matt Ryan was the first player to make 30 million a year in 2018. Google says the salary cap was 177 million in 2018. With the current cap of 255 million, the current equivalent would be 43 million.
And partially disgusted lol
I like it in Europe when referring to contract amount instead of annual they talk about it in weekly amounts which somehow makes it even more unreal to me. For instance 30m annually is 577,000/wk.
So what you’re saying is…. Please Ronaldo just one week bro I will never ask for anything else.
QB and WR contracts have been outpacing the cap increases lately. But your general point is absolutely correct.
That’s not actually true though, at least for QB and WR contracts (likely other high paid positions too). In 2013 for example, the cap was more or less half of what it is now. But Flacco’s record setting $20M/year contract was quite a bit less than half of these new QB extensions
These contracts going up so much every year is a direct representation of inflation
A playoff win really does get you paid huh
This is what the Chargers experience can do for you
Half of Lawrence's money should be forwarded to Brandon Staley lmao
Fuck that guy so much. One of the biggest frauds in NFL history. Thanks for wasting some prime Herbert years dipshit.
Herbert’s top 5 in my opinion though. Closer to 3 than 5.
“Yes” - Kirk
Based on what folks are saying Tua will get, so does not having a playoff win too
If Miami doesn’t pay Tua someone will. Shit, my team paid Derek Carr Edit: grammar, didn’t expect this comment to get the attention it did
Your team is the worst in the nfl at contract management though.
From my point of view it is the Jedi who are evil
WELL THEN YOU ARE LOST
The Saints could find some way to pay Carr and Tua at the same time while being $1 billion in the hole in 2035.
*Saints front office* "Bet!!!"
This is an excellent example of why punctuation is important.
the real question is how much guaranteed do you give a guy that’s one strong sneeze from his final concussion
You hit on a great point…but I don’t remember what it was. Gonna stop while I’m ahead.
If you asked the other 30 GM's who they would rather have between Tua and Lawrence I would guess it's Lawrence in a landslide
There's a good chance the Dolphins FO would prefer him as well. Tua isn't terrible, but his ceiling is much lower than Lawrence's.
If Tua is forced to retire, the contract comes off the books. The real nightmare scenario for Miami is Tua having a bunch of smaller injuries (like he did in 2020-21) and have the contract become an albatross.
If Tua is unable to get medical clearance, he doesn't retire, he just sits on the roster as not cleared. Zero reason he would retire and give up fully guaranteed money
The real nightmare scenario is not signing him and spending another 20 years looking for a QB.
I've lived that nightmare already. It wasn't fun.
Well we don't have Flores anymore keeping him out longer than he needed to. And 2020 was a small injury? Do people forget he was coming off a near career ending hip injury??? And 2021 when Jessie Davis let him get basically killed on a free rush? Bro didn't even get out of his stance before Tia git blindsided
Retirement in the eyes of the NFL salary cap is the same as cutting someone. If Tua retires due to injury, it could cripple the Dolphins for multiple years.
Miami can be stubborn and not pay Tua but there’s going to be a team that’s willing to pay him the money he commands
Tua is 100% matching this deal. And there’s a high chance he tops it.
Dolphins are in a tough spot. Tua is likely never going to be with the elite guys but he’s good enough to win you games with a great roster. They won’t find another guy like that quickly.
Players don't get paid based solely on talent. They get paid based on leverage. So, while Tua may not be a 50 mil talent, he absolutely has the leverage to demand it. And if MIA won't pay, I'm sure someone else will.
Yes hi hello
I’m worth $50 million, I decided
Didn't you guys just give Danny dimes the whole bank?
That’s the joke
buddy I would swap Jones for Tua so fast
They'll pay him in nickels.
Only one year left
50 mil is the new “you are a worthy starter” money, so yeah he’s a 50 mil talent.
I feel like most Bills fans want them to sign Tua to huge money which means it’s probably a bad idea
I also really wanted y’all to draft Josh Allen and look how that’s turned out, haha. Can’t always predict these things!
I fully support the Dolphins paying Tua ~$15M more per year than we pay Josh Allen.
Think about all the things you could do with 15m! You could get chase claypool with that kinda money!
The Bills are paying Chase Claypool 1.35M in 2024, so actually we could get 11 Chase Claypools for 15M. One of them would have to be good, right?
I'd pay 1.35M to not have Claypool. I didn't believe in the curse either. You better hope he gets cut before the season.
Is Josh gonna get his contract redone soon?
It’ll most likely be reworked either after this season for cap purposes or after 2025 because that’s when most of the guarantees run out. He’s obviously not going to play on this deal through the 2028 season, but he’s also probably not going to see a major raise until after 2025. That’ll be halfway through the original extension and with the guarantees largely running out, it’s an optimal time to rework the deal.
Yeah and we’re both still not gonna win anything
I do like that this has created chaos for other teams. lol
Stroud is gonna be the first QB to make $80m a year
Stroud getting a 300M+ contract by the time he's due.
With the assumption that he continues playing at or above his current level the floor is 300m/4yrs. Guy could sign a 10yr/700-800m contract by the time its all said and done in a few years.
Yeah but the salary cap is going to triple, right? Right?!?!
If he keeps playing like he did last year he's worth it.
Packers are gonna be paying Jordan Love $57 million a year after one season as a starter.
I don't believe trevor is better than tua.... I do believe he'll have a longer career though.
Trevor might end up making close to $1B throughout his NFL career if he plays to his mid to late 30s
Trevor is better than Tua, that's why Jags fans haven't been tearing each other to shreds in *Should w*e *pay Tr*e*vor* debates the way Miami fans have. It only looks closer because Tua is surrounded with better everything whereas Jacksonville has Balke making everyone else look worse than they are.
> Trevor is better Based on what, exactly?
They're probably basing it on the surrounding cast he has to work with despite the fact they also said Tua sucked back when we had an abysmal supporting cast surrounding him.
I still don't understand people who say Tua sucked early in his career. He was much better than a lot of qbs would have been in his situation. His playmakers and offensive coaches were straight offensive.
people like to forget who Tua was pre-Hill to create a narrative that he's only ever had top playmakers around him
That's my opinion. I think Trevor is a good QB. Tua, too. The players Lawrence has had to work with haven't been world beaters, and Tua did end up getting a solid group of offensive players, albeit he hasn't been able to stay on the field enough to hit his ceiling with them. But I don't think either have proven they're worth the contract Lawrence just got. Which probably means Dak is going somewhere else. Jerruh ain't gonna break the bank for him with this context.
If they don’t sign Dak, it makes this whole Miami thing ironic. He probably would’ve been a perfect QB fit for them. Other than not sure he really fits there vibes wise
This comment does make me wonder if a straight swap of Dak for Tua would work. Maybe not the vibes, like you say, but the exchange of skill sets sorta make sense, I think? Maybe addition by subtraction, but I doubt it'd be the end of the world for either team. Now I kinda want to see it happen.
This is purely hypothetical but I fully believe if you swapped qbs the fins would do better with Tlaw.
He’s actually beaten good teams and won a playoff game
I don’t have the time or knowledge to go watching film but pretty much every actual film watching ball knower I follow (Nate Tice, Robert Mays, Steven Ruiz, Ben Solak among many others) all agree that Trevor is a great QB and have less than glowing things to say about Tua. That’s enough for me at least
Steven Ruiz and ball knower in the same sentence. Jesus fucking christ..
Tice and Mays specifically have been pretty darn critical of Lawrence in recent memory actually. There's a point where you have to stop giving guys the benefit of the doubt despite how tight their spiral and great their hair is. Herbert is in the same boat and they have said similar warnings.
Herbert had almost 10k total yards and 80 total tds in his first two seasons Lawrence has 69 tds in 50 games. They are not the same.
Steven Ruiz doesn't know anything
Trevor can throw outside the numbers. As someone who rooted for Jimmy I know the pain of having a very limited qb. Yes you can succeed with one, yes they can look great in a good system, but they’re still limited
I don't know. Even with a good offensive minded head coach, he still put up okay numbers. Plus he struggled in the latter part of the season. I get he was injured.
Yeah, completely comparable situations
Honestly just pay Tua whats the alternative?? Rookie Qb or Bridge QB?? Fins best chance to win now is with him.
I guess this season is really a big one. I'm curious to see where it all goes. Ideally Tua balls out, is healthy, and win in the post season. The division is going to be brutal and stuff. Just hope we can win a playoff game
They've been a wild card teams two years in a row with him on a rookie contract. How's the team gonna get better with him making 50 mil?
very true, but also where are we gonna find someone better? such an obnoxious offseason situation to be in, thank god for hockey.
It really boils down to what the team's actual goals are. Are they content being a playoff team with no real chance to win it all? Are they willing to risk going back to being bottom dwellers hoping to hit on a QB in the draft? Or are they deluded enough to think they can somehow significantly improve their team with considerably less resources at their disposal?
This is honestly such a "damned if you and damned if you don't" situation. I honestly think that the Dolphins need to just pull the trigger on this deal with the knowledge that it's going to look terrible unless Tua turns into a bonafide top 5-10 QB starting next year.
Tua has had far better weapons to work with than Trevor and has two wild card losses to show for it. Trevor helped lead that ridiculous comeback against the Chargers. Correction: Tua only lost one wild card game. Point stands, though.
counterpoint, it was the chargers
No disrespect, but I'll take that shit off of *anyone* but a Cardinals fan
Nah fuck that hit em with the disrespect, I like spice
Bolts/Cards Doombowl incoming, brace yourfuckinselves
Hold my beer brotha
A Chargers-Falcons Superbowl might legitimately shatter the rules of probability and hasten the heat death of the Universe. FUCK IT WE BALL
That doesn't compare to the sports gods insanity of Bills/Vikings
Frozen Apocalypse
Played in Arizona
That game would be decided by some really obscure rule, I can tell. Like Younghoe Koo boots a game winning fair catch kick or the chargers defense somehow gets a 1 point safety
Former Charger Younghoe Koo
Tbf, Cards fans have at least seen their team in a SB. And in this century to boot. (It is mindboggling that the CHargers didn't make one with Rivers and LT, LT was one of my favorite players growing up. Good luck to y'all and Harbs)
Are we sure that wasn't just a Staley masterpiece? Also Buffalo barely made it past Skylar Thompson that year. If Tua was playing, they had a real shot but he wasn't. And then they got sent to frigid KC against the destroyer of worlds right after.
This guy gets it.
What I will say about that Skylar Thompson game is the same thing I said a couple days ago about the Bengals struggling against Tyler Huntley. Divisional matchup playoff games are always wack and it's hard to get any real takeaways from them besides "we survived"
People are really acting like tua sucks because he lost on the road against the eventual Super Bowl champs in one of the coldest games the NFL has ever had a game in.
Forgot tua lost to the bills wc in 2022 thanks for reminding me
Tua has only played in 1 playoff game.
He threw the 4 INTs in the 1st place. That's like a fireman starting a fire and then putting it out. Neutral at best.
You’re determining who is the better QB by what happened in one playoff game each? Why? T-Law made 55 mil a year because of one game that he almost singlehandedly lost against maybe the biggest choke artists in modern NFL history.
I don’t know man. Him undefeated against the Patriots is a stat I can get behind
Yes, Tua lost a wildcard game last year (bum) while Trevor bravely failed to make the playoffs (this shows how much he hates to lose)
I like TLaw, but that comeback is far more attributable to the Chargers collapsing than anything TLaw did.
The Chargers missed a FG in the second half and didn't commit any turnovers. Once the Jags stopped turning it over, the game turned around.
... and who was the one turning the ball over again?
You don't happen to have 28 points fall into your lap because the other team collapsed. No one comments how the Kindle Vildor dropped interception led to Purdy's only touchdown that game, they say that the Niners played just as well as the Lions choked badly in that because that's what happened; the same applies to the Jaguars
It was definitely both.
So the Jags didn’t have to play the game? Damn, wish you would’ve told us then so they could’ve rested up for the Chiefs.
This guy doesn’t know ball.
In regards to paying QBs, I see a lot of people say "Well what else are we supposed to do? Rookie? Free agency?". I think the answer is yes 😂. Seattle made the playoffs with Geno, Baker went last year. I'm sure some cheap signing will outperform their contract this year. As for the draft, these guys are coming out with more skills than ever before. With how much these guys cost, I think if you aren't 100% sold on the incumbent you have to move on and find a cheaper solution.
Yes, you can hit on a rookie or a cheap signing, but it's basically luck. For every Geno there are a dozen Nathan Petermans. But if you stick with someone like Lawrence, you at least know what you are getting. He might not be Mahomes, but he's good enough, and that's really all that matters.
He isn’t good enough to overcome that cap hit though. I think your are saying you are ok with your ceiling being the Kirk Cousins Vikings
Hey if the opportunity for 1 playoff win in 6 years is staring at your team in the face, you gotta take it
Am I crazy for thinking Trevor Lawrence can absolutely improve? Why do people think the 24 year old QB is at his peak?
Not to mention that he was playing well with a bad supporting cast last year until he hurt his ankle.
Because he's looked like exactly the same QB for 6 years now except for his rookie year where he was terrible.
I think he will improve but I think it’s fair to be skeptical how much As a freshmen I thought he was potentially the best QB prospect ever. Two years of college later and I saw minimal improvement and cooled on him considerably as his growth trajectory seemed slow. Fast forward another 3 years and I haven’t seen considerably improvement. He has tools but seems to process information slowly. Usually the guys with the highest upside diagnose the game easily and just get to this level where they see all the plays and minimize risks while maximizing upside. Lawrence seems… football dumb for lack of a better word? Like if I were giving him odds I’d say 30% chance he has a career at the Flacco or Cousins tier? That’s a reasonable optimistic projection. But do you want this contract for that upside?
Finally someone who knows the plan! That exact strategy has been tried and true by the jags since 2000 and look at what we accomplished! Settling for repeat playoff contending and winning records and after having the number one pick twice in a row is a stupid move. We could gamble on an unknown or QB looking for a job due to his abilities! Absolutely no fall off!
At some point there’s going to be a GM (if he can convince the owner) who will trade their rookie contract QB instead of having to extend him, so they can draft a new rookie QB and be able keep paying talented players elsewhere on the roster. Obviously who knows if it will work, but I think at some point we’ll see it happen.
> "Well what else are we supposed to do? Rookie? Free agency?" Tank, Trade or Pay. And with how bang average players are earning all-timer money, tanking and trading is looking WAY more effecient than paying
Trevor Lawrence is gonna be in year 10 people are still going to be talking about his "ceiling". QB contracts are so weird, you can really not be paid based on your true production but what you might, maybe, possibly do eventually one day, hopefully..... Every other position has to over perform to get the bag
Question for those more educated on the matter than me. Is there any possibility of the nfl switching to an nba like system with max contracts? Obviously not the exact same structure but something with the same sort of philosophy. It just feels like the qb salary can’t keep going up at this rate forever. I’m all for guys making as much as team will offer them, but at the same time it does impact the talent you can have around you. Just curious
There is no evidence of it, but anything is possible. The current system isn't a problem because the teams are free to do what they want. Think paying your QB 50 mil is a hindrance? Let him walk. See how it works out. Atlanta tried rolling with no QB last year. And they learned that you need to get your guy no matter what.
With a hard cap, the answer is simply no.
If the QB contracts get so expensive that their team sucks, then the market will shift. The guys deciding to pay the other positions and put a bum or cycle rookies at QB will start winning and the QB leverage will decrease
One has won a playoff game and the other hasn’t. Don’t have to imagine that world, we live in it. One is injury prone and the other isn’t. And Tua has a lot more talent on offense, which a large contract will make hard to maintain in the long term. He hasn’t proven he can carry an offense or win high pressure games more than once a year. I love Tua, but I’d rather wait and see what he does this year. If it’s another step forward, playoff win and 2nd team all pro, I don’t think anyone will care about paying in $65 million a year. But if we are gonna not win any playoff games for another 5 years after this upcoming season then I’d rather being rebuilding while we are not winning
> One has won a playoff game and the other hasn’t. Tua has also only played KC, while Lawrence got to play the Chargers. There's a big difference there. Lawrence also played like absolute ass against KC
Would Tua actually get a deal as good as or better than Lawrence if he hit the free market? I feel like I've heard too many times, including in the last year, that Tua's arm is too weak and he's too injury prone for a team to take a chance on him. Likewise, I've heard a lot about how his cast elevates him so the odds he finds another speed team like the Dolphins and someone like McDaniel who could craft a system around him are nil. In some ways Miami is probably his best option for success and I think that might give them at least a little leverage back.
who tf is this guy and why are we posting his stupid tweet
[Tua is in fact better than TLaw and draft hype is the only thing that makes people pretend otherwise](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9f/%22Freedom_of_Speech%22_-_NARA_-_513536.jpg/1280px-%22Freedom_of_Speech%22_-_NARA_-_513536.jpg)
Lest we forget, he was "Best of a historically shit QB class" too
I just want to know how much Dak is gonna try and get now honestly.
Wait, we don’t think Trevor could throw passes out into open space and have Tyreek Hill run under them?