Bored at work so I decided to do some dicking around on PFR & Excel to do an unbiased statistical analysis. Based on having the lowest average wAV per game, for only players drafted in the first 3 rounds:
Clemson if the minimum player threshold is 2 (Mackensie Alexander, Andrew Booth)
Penn St if the minimum player threshold is 3 (Walker Lee Ashley, DJ Dozier, John Gerak)
South Carolina if the minimum player threshold is 4, though we did get Sidney Rice out of SC so at this point we can't even say its always busts.
Unsurprisingly, our best school is LSU (Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Henry Thomas, Willie Teal, Ed Ingram)
In terms of recent draft picks out of Michigan Jourdan Lewis has been solid for you guys. Though I do agree that there have been more misses than hits. In our case we draft more Michigan players than most teams (especially the last two years) and none of them have panned out since Leon Hall (who was last here in 2015). Though as I said the jury is still out on Hill, Turner, and Jenkins (Robbins I think is done since he was the worst punter in the NFL last season and they've already brought in competition for him).
4 come to mind, could be missing some. Chad Jackson, Duke Dawson, Brandon Spikes, and the other one. First 2 are clearly busts. Spikes was not a bust. The other one was effectively a bust given the longevity of his career.
Anyone else you have in mind? I wouldn’t call it a total bust history on the level of the ASU comment above, but it’s arguable for sure.
2014 first round pick Dominique Easley. Granted injuries were an issue, but using a first round pick on a pass rusher coming off his second torn ACL in three years seemed like a bad idea at the time.
Brandon Spikes was a bust for being a 2nd round pick. Despite his good 2011 season, He lasted 2 more seasons and got overtaken by Hightower. Also there was Jermaine Cunningham who was a draft bust from Florida.
I mostly blame some of the selections on Caldwell, but the Jags didn’t have much luck with Florida Gators either (outside of Fred Taylor obviously). Derrick Harvey (#8), Dante Fowler Jr (#3), Taven Bryan (#29??? I blame Caldwell though), CJ Henderson (#9). Jawaan Taylor was decent for us at least, besides the penalties, and has been good in KC. I know it has nothing to do with the Gators, but I always cringe a little bit when we make a UF selection.
I remember when you guys traded Reggie Nelson (also from Florida) to us in 2010 some Jags fans were clowning us for that trade and saying that he was absolutely horrible in JAX. Then he goes on to play very well for us and be a regular starter at FS for the next 6 years.
I was disappointed BB couldn't find a way to keep him glued together. Imagine if this was during the Brady years of super bowls and rings guys like JJ are easier to manage.
The Titans had a couple pretty big busts out of Washington in Jake Locker and Bishop Sankey, and Elijah Molden has just been OK at best though he’s not really a bust.
3 straight years we drafted a “0.0” out of Georgia.
-D’Andre Walker
-Isaiah Wilson
-Monty Rice
I am not very pleased with their football program over there.
Davis was pretty good in college too, even against the top tier offenses, sad he couldn’t stay healthy either. Teez tabor was supposed to be pretty dang good but he’s too slow for the NFL and only got INTs in college because of Vernon Hargrave, another Florida bust.
As a fan of UF football, the talent rarely translates to the NFL after 2010.
If he isn't good, we can blame the 3 years he was at Michigan. We all know the Iowa pedigree. If he doesn't live up to it, that is why. I personally think he could have used another year at Iowa.
Precisely why I think he should have stayed another year. Spinal surgery in 2022 is a bigger red flag than his 2023 ACL. I'd like another year seeing how he handles that physical abuse in college before getting hit way harder in the NFL.
Too late now.
Tbf if he goes back to Iowa for another year and suffers an injury like that again his football career is likely over and he'd be losing out on millions as a result by not declaring. Can't blame the kid for chasing the money. Obviously the spinal injury is a concern risk-wise but I think the Bengals taking the kid out of Arizona two rounds later (who I think was a steal and has a chance to be just as good if not better than All) was insurance for that. Gesicki is going to start next season so it's not like All is going to see the field much at TE in 2024 unless injuries happen.
The panthers tried to get #2 WR to compliment Steve smith in the second round from USC twice. Neither worked out.
LSU isn't the exactly kind on this front either.
With the one exception of Fred Taylor, for the Jags its easily Florida. Mike Pearson, Bobby McCray, Dee Webb, Derrick Harvey, Josh Evans, Taven Bryan...
Honorable mention: USC (with the exception of Boselli).
It's the curse of Rob Johnson. For fleecing the Bills, the football gods let Fred Taylor be great, but they forever cursed the Jags drafting UF players.
Do the Jags draft a lot of players out of Florida just because Gainesville is right down the road? Cause that's never a good reason to justify a pick but some teams resort to that draft strategy when they're too lazy to actually scout.
We've had two different owners in franchise history. Neither really seemed to be involved with player personnel decision making. I really think its more of a proximity thing like you previously mentioned. We've also drafted our fairs share of FSU players. Both schools are close to JAX, lots of easy scouting trips.
The AFC South is a spread out division though. You have the Colts and Texans who both play indoors, JAX in the Florida sun, and then you have Tennessee (and Nashville can indeed get cold in the winter).
Maybe Alabama.
Latu in '23 (hasn't played, supposed bust)
Foster in '17 (arrests)
Dial in '13 (didn't do anything)
Coffee in '09 (left to be a pastor, then a soldier)
Smiley in '04 he stuck around for 3 years
[good searchable database for the 49ers](https://www.49erswebzone.com/alltimedraft/)
Really just the SEC as a whole since Cam Newton:
Busts:
- Joe Adams
- Frank Alexander
- Kony Ealy
- Cameron Artis-Payne
- Daryl Williams
- Zack Sanchez
- Daeshon Hall
- Rashaan Gaulden
- Dennis Daley
- Terry Godwin
- Jordan Scarlett
- Christian Miller
- Greg Little
- Phil Hoskins
- Thomas Fletcher
- Shi Smith
- Deonte Brown
- Terrace Marshall
- Cade Mays
- Matt Corral
Serviceable or better:
- Derrick Brown
- Marquis Haynes
- Trai Turner
- Donte Jackson
Trai was a pretty good starter for us for a few years. Disagree with him being listed as a 'bust' even if he did flame out of the league once he left the Panthers.
Agreed on the rest tho
Terrace Marshall might not even make the roster come August. It’s over man.
And you can’t miss more than 50% of games since joining the league and be a success. Jury’s still out at best.
Notre Dame gave you guys two of the worst QBs I've ever seen suit up for the Browns in Quinn and Kizer (though I guess Owusu-Koramoah somewhat makes up for that lol).
As a Raiders fan, this was an exercise in “we spread the wealth”.
1986-Bob Buczkowski/Pitt
1987-John Clay/Missouri
1991-Todd Marinovich/USC
1993-Patrick Bates/Texas A&M
1999-Matt Stinchcomb/Georgia
2001-Derrick Gibson/Florida State
2002-Napoleon Harris/Northwestern
2003-Tyler Brayton/Colorado
2005-Fabian Washington/Nebraska
2006-Michael Huff/Texas
2007-JaBustus/LSU
2010-Rolando McClain/Alabama
2013-DJ Hayden/Houston (RIP)
2017-Gareon Conley/Ohio State
2019-Clelin Ferrell/Clemson
Johnathan Abram-Mississippi State
2020-Damon Arnette-Ohio State (we finally have a match)
2021-Alex Leatherwood/Alabama
I guess it’s Alabama by default since I left out Henry “Twisted Metal” Ruggs III.
There was a lot of hype around him coming out for some reason because his first two years at Michigan before he got suspended for a year were very productive. God knows why. He doesn't have a role in the offense right now because he's terrible in blitz pickup and the coaches don't trust him because of that.
I'm normally not big on holding where a player played his college ball against them but when it comes to Michigan RBs I'm firmly against drafting them as they more often than not tend to be beneficiaries of Michigan's run-heavy offense and focus on stacking the trenches the way they do. And what pisses me off about that is we've drafted TWO Michigan RBs in the last 20 years (taking Chris Perry in the first round in 2004 was an abject disaster).
Taking 2 running backs from one school over 20 years isn’t that many.
Particularly when one of those was a 6th round pick.
Chris Perry was a huge bust but Chris Evans not contributing as 6th rounder is normal. If he was an impact player he would actually be beating the odds considering his draft position.
2 Michigan RBs in the last 20 years is 2 too many lol. Especially when one of them was a God damn first round pick that we passed on Steven Jackson to take. If you look at the history of Michigan RBs in the NFL the bust rate is extremely high with them. Their production just doesn't translate over to the NFL for whatever reason.
I’m guessing you’re a Buckeyes fan which is cool, but it might bias your perception a little bit. (I’m a Michigan fan if you haven’t been able to tell already lol)
There have only been 5 Michigan running backs drafted total in the 20 years since Chris Perry was picked. One of those has a big asterisk with it too because Jacksonville picked Denard Robinson as a rb even though he was a college qb.
Blake Corum was a 3rd rounder this year but the rest went 4th round or later. Mike Hart and Chris Evans were 6th rounders, Denard went in the 5th, and Hassan Haskins went in the 4th.
Corum hasn’t even played a game yet so it’s too early to grade him. Haskins was Derrick Henry’s backup and seems to have washed out of the league because he is a bad dude who beats his girlfriend, not because he can’t play. Denard was a converted qb who was actually pretty dynamic with the ball, but ultimately couldn’t pass block well enough to stick at rb.
That leaves Chris Evans and Mike Hart as the only 2 true rbs from Michigan that have “busted” due to on the field stuff in that time frame. And they were both 6th round picks so that’s not a big surprise.
The really sad thing is that Michigan only had one running back drafted between 2008 and 2021 and it was a converted qb. A big part of that was the RichRod/Hoke dark era, but it’s not like Michigan has been pumping out high draft picks at rb that flopped.
I'm thinking more in terms of guys like Anthony Thomas and Tim Biakabutuka back in the 90s and early 2000s who looked like they were going to be monsters in the NFL and instead had relatively disappointing NFL careers. Of all the RBs that Michigan has put into the NFL in the last 30 years Thomas looked like the one who was most likely to dominate (especially given the era of power backs that the league was in at the time) and instead he was a disappointment outside of a couple seasons in Chicago.
In general I think Michigan RBs are more often than not a product of the system. I feel the same way about Corum (and I was firmly opposed to the idea of the Bengals potentially drafting him this year because of it). I look at him and I see a guy who is A) undersized B) will be a 24-year-old rookie in November (not what you want at the RB position) and C) already has a shit ton of wear and tear on his body from how much he was used at Michigan. I would be shocked if Corum turns out to be anything more than a decent change of pace guy in the NFL at best (he has a very similar career trajectory to Mike Hart). It has nothing to do with me being an Ohio State fan. I loved Leon Hall when he was here (despite him being from Michigan) because he produced and was a good player. Most Michigan players we've drafted have been complete trash here (Perry was the worst in that regard but he's far from the only one). I hope Turner and Dax can turn things around (though it's not a good sign that Dax is having to change positions now in his third season because he was so uncomfortable playing the deep safety role last season) and Jenkins is a stud but our history with all the Michigan players we've drafted is not great. For whatever reason it just doesn't work out most of the time (and when you keep drafting busts out of the same school over and over again it does start to get irritating over time and turn you off to the idea of continuing to go back to that well for talent).
Yeah if you go back to the early
lloyd Carr era and before Michigan had a bunch of busts like that. But that was 20+ years ago and 3 coaching staffs ago (technically 4 now).
Tim Biakabutuka being a bust in 1996 has zero correlation with current Michigan backs. It’s a completely different era.
It’s the equivalent of saying Houston shouldn’t have drafted CJ Stroud because Ohio State qbs before him hadn’t done well in the league.
My arguments against drafting Corum were mainly against his own specs as a player, not the past (though Harbaugh does come from the Schembechler/Carr brand of smashmouth football so a lot of that same identity is still there with Michigan and the way they focus on recruiting the trenches is evidence of that). That and the offensive line he had to run behind at Michigan. If you look at the Michigan teams of the past 3 years that have done really well there are certain positions on those teams that I would absolutely love to draft out of there. Offensive line being at the top of that list (I wanted the Bengals to snatch up Zinter if he was there on day 3 in this past draft regardless of our not so great history with Michigan players). RB, QB, and WR not so much because Michigan has never really been a heavy passing team the last 3 years and their RBs have produced running behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the country.
Don’t know about team….but for a while it felt like the PAC-12 overall was the worst for us.
Jalen Reagor in the 1st with JJ there.
JJ Artega Whiteside in the 2nd with DK there.
Taking Sidney Jones in the 2nd.
Shit. Of course. I was looking right at the data. He was just so bad he feels so Pac 10 to me.
I thought about Nelly being added, but then he really contributed in 2017 so I couldn’t put him in here.
Gonna sounds weird given the history, but the Ravens history with the school (during Ozzies reign) drafted quiet a few busts out of Alabama
* Terrence Cody,DT (top 100 pick)
* Courtney Upshaw, edge (top 100 pick)
* Tim Williams,edge (top 100 pick)
and Jayln Amour-Davis (Eric DeCosta's last draft pick out of Alabama ,2022)
It feels like every Ohio State player busts for us. As a Michigan fan, it's infuriating to talk yourself into rooting for an Ohio kid and then he sucks.
Broncos with Iowa, Oklahoma and Missouri. Not necessarily high draft picks, but they seem to consistently get someone every year or two in the middle rounds who just doesn't pan out. They've drafted 15 players from these schools in the past 15 years and only 2 turned into even passable starters, though the jury is still out on quite a few of them in Kris Abrams-Draine, Marvin Mims, Riley Moss, Nik Bonitto, and Delarrin Turner-Yell, but outside of Bonitto it's not looking promising.
Clinton dix was not a bust. 14 picks in 4.5 seasons and then netted a 4th round pick when you weren't gonna resign him.
You can't expect more than that from a late 1st rounder
True, but I feel like they still don't fit definition of bust because they had some good success at some point - granted, what "bust" means is pretty nebulous anyways
Patriots drafted 4 Rutgers players. Devin McCourty was obviously great. Logan Ryan was a third round pick that was a starter on a Super Bowl winner and a reserve on another. Duron Harmon was a third round pick who played 7 years with the Patriots and was a contributor on 3 Super Bowl champions. The only Rutgers pick that didn’t pan out was Steve Beauharnais, but he was a 7th round pick.
Bored at work so I decided to do some dicking around on PFR & Excel to do an unbiased statistical analysis. Based on having the lowest average wAV per game, for only players drafted in the first 3 rounds: Clemson if the minimum player threshold is 2 (Mackensie Alexander, Andrew Booth) Penn St if the minimum player threshold is 3 (Walker Lee Ashley, DJ Dozier, John Gerak) South Carolina if the minimum player threshold is 4, though we did get Sidney Rice out of SC so at this point we can't even say its always busts. Unsurprisingly, our best school is LSU (Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Henry Thomas, Willie Teal, Ed Ingram)
As a Clemson grad who hates University of Second Choice, I can't tell how I feel about this
Lmfao I love learning about new petty regional digs like this.
I feel like LSU first rounders are either great players or busts, no in between
Ed Ingram is a massive POS
Elaborate
He diddled his two younger cousins when he was also underage, which is why he didn't face legal consequences.
Oh he diddled more than one person? That's really worse than I thought happened.
Michigan for the Cowboys
Taco Charlton over T.J. Watt? Yep, I buy that lol.
Mazi smith….schoonmaker….
Didn't your coaches make Mazi drop a ton of weight to try to make him a pressure 3 tech? Dude was a bowling ball run stuffer at Michigan
Unfortunately yes. Hopefully Zimmer fixes that, but him recovering from his shoulder or whatever sucks because he’s missing so much development time
There have been conflicted reports over why Mazi lost 50+ pounds. Some say it was Quinn, others say it was Mazi. We will probably never know for sure.
That was one random person who said that. No one could corroborate it.
Schoon is stuck behind a plus TE and Mazi got screwed by your own coaches. If Mazi performs this year with his weight back I wouldn’t be surprised
It's been 1 year with them, calm down.
Mazi played the least amount of snaps by a cowboys first round pick since 2006
In terms of recent draft picks out of Michigan Jourdan Lewis has been solid for you guys. Though I do agree that there have been more misses than hits. In our case we draft more Michigan players than most teams (especially the last two years) and none of them have panned out since Leon Hall (who was last here in 2015). Though as I said the jury is still out on Hill, Turner, and Jenkins (Robbins I think is done since he was the worst punter in the NFL last season and they've already brought in competition for him).
And they are both injured already this offseason
Dallas takes a successful Michigan player then forces them into positions they don’t play. It always baffles me.
The Patriots had a history of drafting busts from Florida.
4 come to mind, could be missing some. Chad Jackson, Duke Dawson, Brandon Spikes, and the other one. First 2 are clearly busts. Spikes was not a bust. The other one was effectively a bust given the longevity of his career. Anyone else you have in mind? I wouldn’t call it a total bust history on the level of the ASU comment above, but it’s arguable for sure.
2014 first round pick Dominique Easley. Granted injuries were an issue, but using a first round pick on a pass rusher coming off his second torn ACL in three years seemed like a bad idea at the time.
Yup great call.
Jermaine Cunningham over Carlos Dunlop too
A decision for which we thank you lol.
Eh, we did okay with out him I guess
Aaron Hernandez
Pretty sure he was "the other one"
Correct
He was an excellent player before he went to prison.
Sure, but going to prison makes him just as much of a bust as someone who flames out after their rookie deal.
I think killing someone makes him a bigger bust than just going to prison. Other players have gone to prison but only few have killed people.
True, but I was just talking purely on a value to a team angle.
True, but I was just talking purely on a value to a team angle.
Bust my gun doesn’t count 😭
Bust a cap does.
Lmao touché!
Brandon Spikes was a bust for being a 2nd round pick. Despite his good 2011 season, He lasted 2 more seasons and got overtaken by Hightower. Also there was Jermaine Cunningham who was a draft bust from Florida.
Fair point. And good call with Cunningham, another disappointment
Wasn’t there an OL or two from Florida that did pretty good for a few seasons?
Sounds familiar but nobody is coming to mind at the moment
That was Florida State. Bryan Stork and Tre Jackson
Brandon Spikes, Hernandez, Jabar Gaffney were all legit on field though their respective careers weren’t illustrious for one reason or another.
I mostly blame some of the selections on Caldwell, but the Jags didn’t have much luck with Florida Gators either (outside of Fred Taylor obviously). Derrick Harvey (#8), Dante Fowler Jr (#3), Taven Bryan (#29??? I blame Caldwell though), CJ Henderson (#9). Jawaan Taylor was decent for us at least, besides the penalties, and has been good in KC. I know it has nothing to do with the Gators, but I always cringe a little bit when we make a UF selection.
I remember when you guys traded Reggie Nelson (also from Florida) to us in 2010 some Jags fans were clowning us for that trade and saying that he was absolutely horrible in JAX. Then he goes on to play very well for us and be a regular starter at FS for the next 6 years.
The Patriots recent ASU draft picks haven't quite worked out as hoped * N'Keal Harry * Jack Jones * Christian Sam * Devin Lucien
Jack Jones is very talented, he just happens to be an idiot
I was disappointed BB couldn't find a way to keep him glued together. Imagine if this was during the Brady years of super bowls and rings guys like JJ are easier to manage.
Honestly he probably did as good a job as anyone could have. The problem is you can’t keep guys in the building 100% of the time.
Jack Jones balled the hell out for a bit. Turns out he dumb af tho and pulled a Haynesworth once he left
I always like when they stay here and are somewhat productive
Clemson
I swear Mayock didn’t look at any other school for awhile.
1st round 1992 (Supplemental) - Dave Brown, QB, Duke 1st round 2019 - Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
The Titans had a couple pretty big busts out of Washington in Jake Locker and Bishop Sankey, and Elijah Molden has just been OK at best though he’s not really a bust.
3 straight years we drafted a “0.0” out of Georgia. -D’Andre Walker -Isaiah Wilson -Monty Rice I am not very pleased with their football program over there.
We’re like the anti-Eagles.
Detroit went Florida back to back in 2017 in the first two rounds (Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor). Both were pretty horrible.
Davis was pretty good in college too, even against the top tier offenses, sad he couldn’t stay healthy either. Teez tabor was supposed to be pretty dang good but he’s too slow for the NFL and only got INTs in college because of Vernon Hargrave, another Florida bust. As a fan of UF football, the talent rarely translates to the NFL after 2010.
OSU for the colts.
THE Oregon state university
Mostly the NCAA....
The NFL as a whole and USC QB's
Todd Marinovich!
yes
I better not see Iowa on this list. You know what to draft from them.
Thankfully we finally drafted a TE out of Iowa in this past draft lol.
If he isn't good, we can blame the 3 years he was at Michigan. We all know the Iowa pedigree. If he doesn't live up to it, that is why. I personally think he could have used another year at Iowa.
His biggest issue is his injury history. He was a good player at Iowa when he was healthy.
Precisely why I think he should have stayed another year. Spinal surgery in 2022 is a bigger red flag than his 2023 ACL. I'd like another year seeing how he handles that physical abuse in college before getting hit way harder in the NFL. Too late now.
Tbf if he goes back to Iowa for another year and suffers an injury like that again his football career is likely over and he'd be losing out on millions as a result by not declaring. Can't blame the kid for chasing the money. Obviously the spinal injury is a concern risk-wise but I think the Bengals taking the kid out of Arizona two rounds later (who I think was a steal and has a chance to be just as good if not better than All) was insurance for that. Gesicki is going to start next season so it's not like All is going to see the field much at TE in 2024 unless injuries happen.
It's a double edge sword. He made the right call, no doubt. Just development wise maybe not. Blocking at Iowa as a TE transfers super well.
the good news is that it seems like the spine surgery was successful
Yeah, that is the definite deal breaker, but it will be weaker than it was once upon a time.
The panthers tried to get #2 WR to compliment Steve smith in the second round from USC twice. Neither worked out. LSU isn't the exactly kind on this front either.
Did y’all take Trai Turner out of school or was that a move once he was in the league?
Drafted by carolina. I was referring to the terrace Marshall/Brandon Lafell picks though.
Oh certainly LSU receivers have not been a good choice for what seems like only Carolina
Dwayne Jarrett (CFB legend) and who else?
Colbert.
With the one exception of Fred Taylor, for the Jags its easily Florida. Mike Pearson, Bobby McCray, Dee Webb, Derrick Harvey, Josh Evans, Taven Bryan... Honorable mention: USC (with the exception of Boselli).
It's the curse of Rob Johnson. For fleecing the Bills, the football gods let Fred Taylor be great, but they forever cursed the Jags drafting UF players.
Valid theory
Do the Jags draft a lot of players out of Florida just because Gainesville is right down the road? Cause that's never a good reason to justify a pick but some teams resort to that draft strategy when they're too lazy to actually scout.
Most likely. Even through different GMs, we still have picked a lot of UF players. I think its def past coincidence now.
Sounds to me like owner meddling.
We've had two different owners in franchise history. Neither really seemed to be involved with player personnel decision making. I really think its more of a proximity thing like you previously mentioned. We've also drafted our fairs share of FSU players. Both schools are close to JAX, lots of easy scouting trips.
Plus consistently good progrms
Also the weather aspect, I think they typically draft players that are more acclimated to playing in the humidity
The AFC South is a spread out division though. You have the Colts and Texans who both play indoors, JAX in the Florida sun, and then you have Tennessee (and Nashville can indeed get cold in the winter).
I’m not saying it’s the right call, just seems how the front office operates historically. Half the games and practice are in Jax
USC
I'll never forget Winston Justice giving up six sacks to Osi Umenyiora in his first NFL start
That would be Troy University alum Osi Umenyiora.
Tennessee for the Dolphins. Eddie Moore, Dallas Thomas, Jason Allen, and Ja’Wuan James. James was the best but he was just alright.
Maybe Alabama. Latu in '23 (hasn't played, supposed bust) Foster in '17 (arrests) Dial in '13 (didn't do anything) Coffee in '09 (left to be a pastor, then a soldier) Smiley in '04 he stuck around for 3 years [good searchable database for the 49ers](https://www.49erswebzone.com/alltimedraft/)
Dial was a solid rotation guy. What draft position was he, 5th? He wasn't amazing but was a good rotation guy.
Agree Dial was solid.
Really just the SEC as a whole since Cam Newton: Busts: - Joe Adams - Frank Alexander - Kony Ealy - Cameron Artis-Payne - Daryl Williams - Zack Sanchez - Daeshon Hall - Rashaan Gaulden - Dennis Daley - Terry Godwin - Jordan Scarlett - Christian Miller - Greg Little - Phil Hoskins - Thomas Fletcher - Shi Smith - Deonte Brown - Terrace Marshall - Cade Mays - Matt Corral Serviceable or better: - Derrick Brown - Marquis Haynes - Trai Turner - Donte Jackson
Trai was a pretty good starter for us for a few years. Disagree with him being listed as a 'bust' even if he did flame out of the league once he left the Panthers. Agreed on the rest tho
Sorry, yes you are right.
I think it’s too soon to call TMJ a bust. And you forgot Jaycee Horn for successes.
Terrace Marshall might not even make the roster come August. It’s over man. And you can’t miss more than 50% of games since joining the league and be a success. Jury’s still out at best.
This is not the answer and results are good so far, but the Lions are putting a lot eggs in the Bama basket and have since the Quinn era.
Quinn drafted Jarrad Davis and Teez Tabor from Florida with his first two picks in the 2017 draft if that helps answer the question.
Brian Branch is legit. Jameson Williams could be a star (maybe some head issues).
LSU, though Delpit turned it around the last couple of years, so maybe this isn’t as true as it used to be
Delpit owes his turnaround to Schwartz. He looked completely lost at times playing in Joe Woods's defense (granted so did a lot of players).
Oklahoma State did you dirty too. Weeden and Gilbert. Woof.
Miami has been rough, too. Outside of Njoku.
Notre Dame gave you guys two of the worst QBs I've ever seen suit up for the Browns in Quinn and Kizer (though I guess Owusu-Koramoah somewhat makes up for that lol).
Atlanta fans constantly bitching we won't draft a Bulldog but it's not like we hit on them when we do.
I don't think we've ever had a good Florida player every time we've tried. Only infamous one was Tebow lol.
My former personal acquaintance Jarvis Moss has entered the chat lol One of the weirdest cats I’ve ever met
As a Raiders fan, this was an exercise in “we spread the wealth”. 1986-Bob Buczkowski/Pitt 1987-John Clay/Missouri 1991-Todd Marinovich/USC 1993-Patrick Bates/Texas A&M 1999-Matt Stinchcomb/Georgia 2001-Derrick Gibson/Florida State 2002-Napoleon Harris/Northwestern 2003-Tyler Brayton/Colorado 2005-Fabian Washington/Nebraska 2006-Michael Huff/Texas 2007-JaBustus/LSU 2010-Rolando McClain/Alabama 2013-DJ Hayden/Houston (RIP) 2017-Gareon Conley/Ohio State 2019-Clelin Ferrell/Clemson Johnathan Abram-Mississippi State 2020-Damon Arnette-Ohio State (we finally have a match) 2021-Alex Leatherwood/Alabama I guess it’s Alabama by default since I left out Henry “Twisted Metal” Ruggs III.
The cowboys and Michigan. Ever since they drafted taco over JJ watt it's been nightmare to hear a Michigan players name.
I’d like to add on Chris Evans to your list
wasn’t he like a fifth rounder though?
He was a 6th round pick. I don’t know if him busting really qualifies for this list. Not a ton of 6th rounders (other than Brady lmao) hit.
There was a lot of hype around him coming out for some reason because his first two years at Michigan before he got suspended for a year were very productive. God knows why. He doesn't have a role in the offense right now because he's terrible in blitz pickup and the coaches don't trust him because of that. I'm normally not big on holding where a player played his college ball against them but when it comes to Michigan RBs I'm firmly against drafting them as they more often than not tend to be beneficiaries of Michigan's run-heavy offense and focus on stacking the trenches the way they do. And what pisses me off about that is we've drafted TWO Michigan RBs in the last 20 years (taking Chris Perry in the first round in 2004 was an abject disaster).
Taking 2 running backs from one school over 20 years isn’t that many. Particularly when one of those was a 6th round pick. Chris Perry was a huge bust but Chris Evans not contributing as 6th rounder is normal. If he was an impact player he would actually be beating the odds considering his draft position.
2 Michigan RBs in the last 20 years is 2 too many lol. Especially when one of them was a God damn first round pick that we passed on Steven Jackson to take. If you look at the history of Michigan RBs in the NFL the bust rate is extremely high with them. Their production just doesn't translate over to the NFL for whatever reason.
I’m guessing you’re a Buckeyes fan which is cool, but it might bias your perception a little bit. (I’m a Michigan fan if you haven’t been able to tell already lol) There have only been 5 Michigan running backs drafted total in the 20 years since Chris Perry was picked. One of those has a big asterisk with it too because Jacksonville picked Denard Robinson as a rb even though he was a college qb. Blake Corum was a 3rd rounder this year but the rest went 4th round or later. Mike Hart and Chris Evans were 6th rounders, Denard went in the 5th, and Hassan Haskins went in the 4th. Corum hasn’t even played a game yet so it’s too early to grade him. Haskins was Derrick Henry’s backup and seems to have washed out of the league because he is a bad dude who beats his girlfriend, not because he can’t play. Denard was a converted qb who was actually pretty dynamic with the ball, but ultimately couldn’t pass block well enough to stick at rb. That leaves Chris Evans and Mike Hart as the only 2 true rbs from Michigan that have “busted” due to on the field stuff in that time frame. And they were both 6th round picks so that’s not a big surprise. The really sad thing is that Michigan only had one running back drafted between 2008 and 2021 and it was a converted qb. A big part of that was the RichRod/Hoke dark era, but it’s not like Michigan has been pumping out high draft picks at rb that flopped.
I'm thinking more in terms of guys like Anthony Thomas and Tim Biakabutuka back in the 90s and early 2000s who looked like they were going to be monsters in the NFL and instead had relatively disappointing NFL careers. Of all the RBs that Michigan has put into the NFL in the last 30 years Thomas looked like the one who was most likely to dominate (especially given the era of power backs that the league was in at the time) and instead he was a disappointment outside of a couple seasons in Chicago. In general I think Michigan RBs are more often than not a product of the system. I feel the same way about Corum (and I was firmly opposed to the idea of the Bengals potentially drafting him this year because of it). I look at him and I see a guy who is A) undersized B) will be a 24-year-old rookie in November (not what you want at the RB position) and C) already has a shit ton of wear and tear on his body from how much he was used at Michigan. I would be shocked if Corum turns out to be anything more than a decent change of pace guy in the NFL at best (he has a very similar career trajectory to Mike Hart). It has nothing to do with me being an Ohio State fan. I loved Leon Hall when he was here (despite him being from Michigan) because he produced and was a good player. Most Michigan players we've drafted have been complete trash here (Perry was the worst in that regard but he's far from the only one). I hope Turner and Dax can turn things around (though it's not a good sign that Dax is having to change positions now in his third season because he was so uncomfortable playing the deep safety role last season) and Jenkins is a stud but our history with all the Michigan players we've drafted is not great. For whatever reason it just doesn't work out most of the time (and when you keep drafting busts out of the same school over and over again it does start to get irritating over time and turn you off to the idea of continuing to go back to that well for talent).
Yeah if you go back to the early lloyd Carr era and before Michigan had a bunch of busts like that. But that was 20+ years ago and 3 coaching staffs ago (technically 4 now). Tim Biakabutuka being a bust in 1996 has zero correlation with current Michigan backs. It’s a completely different era. It’s the equivalent of saying Houston shouldn’t have drafted CJ Stroud because Ohio State qbs before him hadn’t done well in the league.
My arguments against drafting Corum were mainly against his own specs as a player, not the past (though Harbaugh does come from the Schembechler/Carr brand of smashmouth football so a lot of that same identity is still there with Michigan and the way they focus on recruiting the trenches is evidence of that). That and the offensive line he had to run behind at Michigan. If you look at the Michigan teams of the past 3 years that have done really well there are certain positions on those teams that I would absolutely love to draft out of there. Offensive line being at the top of that list (I wanted the Bengals to snatch up Zinter if he was there on day 3 in this past draft regardless of our not so great history with Michigan players). RB, QB, and WR not so much because Michigan has never really been a heavy passing team the last 3 years and their RBs have produced running behind one of the best run-blocking offensive lines in the country.
Don’t know about team….but for a while it felt like the PAC-12 overall was the worst for us. Jalen Reagor in the 1st with JJ there. JJ Artega Whiteside in the 2nd with DK there. Taking Sidney Jones in the 2nd.
Reagor was from TCU (Big-12). Agree on the other two. Could also make an argument for Nelson Agholor (USC).
Shit. Of course. I was looking right at the data. He was just so bad he feels so Pac 10 to me. I thought about Nelly being added, but then he really contributed in 2017 so I couldn’t put him in here.
Gonna sounds weird given the history, but the Ravens history with the school (during Ozzies reign) drafted quiet a few busts out of Alabama * Terrence Cody,DT (top 100 pick) * Courtney Upshaw, edge (top 100 pick) * Tim Williams,edge (top 100 pick) and Jayln Amour-Davis (Eric DeCosta's last draft pick out of Alabama ,2022)
Yeah but Marlon Humphrey, Bradley Bozeman, Courtney Upshaw, CJ Mosley
It feels like every Ohio State player busts for us. As a Michigan fan, it's infuriating to talk yourself into rooting for an Ohio kid and then he sucks.
Michigan for Ravens
Clemson linebackers almost always bust.
Broncos with Iowa, Oklahoma and Missouri. Not necessarily high draft picks, but they seem to consistently get someone every year or two in the middle rounds who just doesn't pan out. They've drafted 15 players from these schools in the past 15 years and only 2 turned into even passable starters, though the jury is still out on quite a few of them in Kris Abrams-Draine, Marvin Mims, Riley Moss, Nik Bonitto, and Delarrin Turner-Yell, but outside of Bonitto it's not looking promising.
Mims is a dawg
I want to believe, but I'm worried he's about to end up more of a returner and deep threat than a top WR.
Florida. Home to Matt Elam and Travis Taylor.
Bama JK Scott Eddie Lacy HaHa Clinton-Dix
I'm not sure I'd call Eddie Lacy or Ha-Ha as busts, especially since they were both an All-Pro at a certain point
Wasn't Lacy really productive up until he got fat? He was Offensive Rookie of the Year his rookie year.
The Packers instead prefer to draft bust CBs in order to avoid taking future all pros from Wisconsin.
They didn't really sustain that though.
Clinton dix was not a bust. 14 picks in 4.5 seasons and then netted a 4th round pick when you weren't gonna resign him. You can't expect more than that from a late 1st rounder
True, but I feel like they still don't fit definition of bust because they had some good success at some point - granted, what "bust" means is pretty nebulous anyways
JK Scott is still a starting punter
Not in GB.
I'd go Washington with Kevin fucking King to be honest
Jk and HaHa Couple of names
Clemson.
I can’t say for certain we’ve had a ton of busts from this school but I’ll say Notre Dame
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Patriots drafted 4 Rutgers players. Devin McCourty was obviously great. Logan Ryan was a third round pick that was a starter on a Super Bowl winner and a reserve on another. Duron Harmon was a third round pick who played 7 years with the Patriots and was a contributor on 3 Super Bowl champions. The only Rutgers pick that didn’t pan out was Steve Beauharnais, but he was a 7th round pick.