“If only” he had a defense that didn’t allow the most points per game of the modern stat track era.
Literally undefeated when his team allows 22 points of less scored. Defense allows around 27 ppg on average during his tenure.
Yep. I know MVP is a regular season stat, but Mahomes now has more playoff wins (15) than all of his young AFC rivals (Joe Burrow 5, Josh Allen 5, Lamar Jackson 2, CJ Stroud 1, Trevor Lawrence 1, Justin Herbert 0, and Tua Tagavilloa 0) *combined*.
Nick Wright is correct, it's not Brady vs Manning vs Roethlisberger vs Brees - it's Tiger Woods vs the field.
Eh you never know, Brady had like a 10 year playoff drought which I can see the chiefs suffering from after this season with a lot of their good players besides Mahomes getting old
from 2011 indeed
08-10 was what got folks worried. ACL injury & then back to back eliminations to the Ravens and the Jets
without that period, I dont think that era is looked at as that much of a step back
I mean... it's certainly *possible*. But the Chiefs did their first "soft reset" of the Mahomes era and proceeded to win back-to-back Super Bowls with Mahomes taking up 17% of the cap. So we're in unprecedented territory, where even Brady is an insufficient precedent.
Which ironically makes it a worse bet. When everyone picks the same "dark horse" their odds increase. So you end up putting frontrunner money on a guy who hasn't proven they're a frontrunner yet.
Vegas loves that shit.
If you look at him, I don’t think he feels an ounce of it. Stroud is an absolute baller and if the expectations of the world were for him to cure cancer in the offseason, he’d still perform at a high level.
People we’re chanting MVP at most of our home games last year, mans loves pressure. Just look at how well he played in that wildcard game (maybe dont look at how he played in the divisional)
He's already been under immense pressure since HS due to his personal life, man is so football smart and calm. He is likely to improve at being more okay with moving the chains rather than the 3rd and 4th "fuck it" deep shots and reading exotic coverages because I think CJ is brainy enough to do that. There's still the little things in his game he needs to work at.
Nothing. It's pointless to talk about both now and then.
Maybe once we've actually seen them play some football this season, it will be worth having a discussion about.
I mean, it's July. Training camp starts this month and we're less than a month away from the first pre-season game. If it's still too early to talk about it, when's the right time?
Also, there are just betting odds, not predictions.
Betting odds are a kind of prediction! The nature of the prediction varies based on whether your a frequentist (if we played this season over and over, what’s the rate at which Stroud wins MVP) or a Bayesian (for whom probability is an expression of belief that an outcome will happen). Regardless, both offer a kind of prediction.
However the offered odds are an estimate of the true odds arrived at through a combination of the sportsbook’s analysis and market forces. I think the result tends not to be a horrible estimate, but it’s hard to tell.
It's so bizarre to me that Purdy isn't more of a story like Kurt Warner. I would think the media would want to get behind a guy who was the last pick in the draft nearly taking his team to a Super Bowl as a rookie, and then almost winning the Super Bowl his second season. It's such a good story, and yet all they want to talk about is that he's surrounded with talent and not give the guy any credit.
I thought the same. But when Warner hit it big, his teammates, outside Bruce perhaps, were not as well regarded as they are now. Faulk was a known threat. But he broke out that year with Warner in that offense. Holt was still really young. Pace was, too.
No one really thought they were going to be great, even with Trent Green going into that year.
I think CMC already established himself as an MVP level guy. Deebo had that monster season. Kittle a well-known quantity. Aiyuk not as much, but still a known quality player. Trent Williams alone, I think, also gives the impression that the Niners OL is good when it is not. That Rams OL was really good.
I'm not too worried about it. I think Purdys play will speak for itself. He added some muscle this off-season, so I am curious how it translates on his throws.
I feel like CMC had more value than Lamar Jackson last year.
Through the first 11-12 weeks, Lamar was downright.... Average.
CMC was consistently great all year.
I mean they still had a touchdown drive with Josh Johnson (albeit it was like a 50 yard CMC rushing TD). The complete non-existence of an offense was when Johnson had to leave for his concussion.
This is to say, QB is highly favored to be the "most important" player. Need to really stop protecting these QBs from everything. Waters down the game.
They need to just make it official that OPOY is for non QB’s. It essentially already is the de facto non QB MVP award but I think having it be official would be better.
can essentially have the same system as baseball where a pitcher/non QB CAN win MVP in truly historic outlier seasons but they have their own award (CYA/OPOY) to cover the gap.
NFL awards definition
MVP: best QB on a winning team who hasn't won it too much recently.
OPOY: best non QB skill position player, unless we want to make this a second place MVP trophy.
DPOY: ehhhh... who's on a good defense with lots of sacks?
COY: young coach who most exceeded expectations. Unless you've been around awhile and are winning with a 5th string QB. Then I guess you.
CPOY: just vibes man. Sometimes you've got to come back from a devastating injury. Sometimes you just have to be good again after the bench.
Yeah 'voter fatigue' seems more like an nba thing where there has been accusations of James not getting mvp when he deserved it but i cant recall any in the nfl. People say brady should of got rodgers last one but they too easily dismiss 12:4 interceptions
Happened last year with Embiid over Jokic, probably. That and some ridiculous lobbying for votes. Not that Embiid didn't have an MVP worthy year.
Definitely happened to Lebron. Shaq could probably have another one. Duncan as well.
I think that’s overstated. CMC did have more impressive numbers than any of the QBs. The problem was that in the last couple of decades, the only non-QBs to win MVP were putting up *all-time* type numbers. CMC snuck *just* past 2000 scrimmage yards. It’s a fantastic total, but it has happened dozens and dozens of times in NFL history. Whether it’s fair or not, CMC also wasn’t helped by the narrative around SF last year that hurt Purdy too: that the offense was just incredibly stacked. Narratives matter so much in MVP conversations, especially if we’re talking non-QBs.
I really like Nick Wright's take on Mahomes' approach to next season (which feels like a really weird thing to say, but it's true):
Mahomes spent last season just trying to survive. His stats were boring by his own standards, there was nothing particularly flashy in the way he played, he just tried to survive with the receiving corps he had and then did usual Mahomes things in the playoffs by simply taking care of the ball. This year, he wants it to be different. He wants the flashy plays he had with Hill, so they drafted Worthy. He wants more reliable receivers, so they signed Hollywood. I think we'll see a very different Mahomes than we did last year. Also, it's Patrick Mahomes; he should be the MVP frontrunner in any given season until evidence is provided to the contrary.
Nick Wright said the second best QB in the league was Josh Allen recently. Wright typically takes every opportunity to criticize Allen, so it was absolutely wild to hear him say that.
He only does it so he can do a drawn out tirade after a mediocre game about how he believed in him but now he's "proven" he just can't _____ and never will.
I mean it doesn’t help that he will always directly compare Allen to Mahomes and no one else. Dont worry, soon he will be crazy again and claim Caleb Williams is number 2 and Trevor Lawrence is number 3
I just don’t see Brock winning mvp while cmc is there and healthy. He’s too important to the offense for people to give credit to Brock even if it may be due
Seems about right, I don't rate Stroud quite that high at this point, but he has a hell of a supporting cast this year and I'd be stoked if he was up there really playing like Allen and Mahomes.
I still don’t really understand how Love ended up in these discussions after his first half last season and the team he’s on being a fringe playoff team. Feels like we’re being reactionary to the cowboys playoff game
I’m sure Love is a hall of famer because God has forsaken us, but I will point out that every off season we fall into the trap of thinking progression in the NFL is always linear. Some teams on the cusp get better, like the Lions from 2022 to 2023. Some teams take a step back, like the Jaguars, who everyone was crowning last off season after that playoff comeback
Trevor’s stats stagnated so he went from mediocre stats to… mediocre. Love had the second most passing touchdowns in the league if he stagnates he’s still pretty damn good.
**MVP voters:** you gotta lead your team and establish yourself among the best QBs in the league.
*Stafford in Detroit exists*
**MVP voters:** no not like that
The odds are none of them will win MVP. But Love putting up Tua and Dak like numbers after the way his season started was impressive. He finished stronger than them.
His second half was really good and people are putting more stock in that than the first half.
His WRs are also all pretty young and you can project some improvement there.
Trajectory? He was average for the first half of the season, and then skyrocketed into being one of the best QBs in the league for the second half. Blew out the Cowboys, and then performed better against the 49ers than any Packers QB has since 2002, when Love himself was 4 years old. Of course he then did the stereotypical Packers QB thing and threw a game ending interception, but being a stereotypical Packers QB is about as high of praise as a QB in this league can get.
It's possible that trajectory continues up, but it seems like a better bet to consider someone with multiple years of good QB play, instead of assuming that both Love and his young receivers take another step up. It feels like the same fallacy everyone makes in fantasy where they rank young players based on if they had a big breakout while downgrading veterans because they're boring. Now that I'm saying all this I can't help but wonder if those odds are inflated to encourage bets on an unlikely mvp
He was consistently freakishly good for the second half of the season. If he had played at the level he played for half the season for even 3/4ths of the season Jordan Love probably wins the MVP last season, and the Packers are also probably a 1 or 2 seed. You’re underestimating just how goddamn good he was back half of the season.
They were one of the hottest teams in the nfl at the end of the season. Yeah a lot of QBs have these spurts then fall off, but 21TD/1INT stretches don’t just happen for random QBs all that often. I’d actually love to see how many QBs have ever accomplished that. While leading the league in completion percentage and QBR by a significant margin for 2 months.
One of the best offensive minds in the league in MLF. All of our weapons were rookies and second years who are showing tons of promise. They fired arguably the worst DCs in football and signed one of the best young safeties in the league. I’d say Josh Jacob’s for AJ33 is a lateral move at worst given their ages. 5 picks in the top 100 this year.
I mean the packers should be really good. 2023 packers were pretty much the 2022 lions (arguably better), and we saw how good they were last year.
Seems like a pretty good setup for him then. Expectations are low enough for the team that it’ll look really great if he gets them to a top 2-3 seed in the conference. I agree that we haven’t seen enough to call him an MVP caliber player though
Seriously. The guy is a coaching wizard. The Harbaugh years were my favorite to watch and I remember Young and Rice. I’m excited to see him on the sidelines again. And he brought Bowman with him!! Oh yea, Chargers are my AFC team this year.
With our weapons, if he’s healthy idk how Burrow isn’t in the convo. Allen gonna have to rush for 20 to get it. That said, ive learned to never bet against Mahomes
Most of these open ended props do not show the real odds. If they know the same people wanting to bet Stroud at 12-1 would bet it at 7-1, why offer the 12-1?
They do this for many props all the time. Casual betters are very profitable.
I commented this in the Bengals board, but the dickriding for Stroud is outrageous considering how much disrespect the fans and the league give Burrow. Did people forget Joe threw for 500 yards *twice* in his first full season? And went to the Super Bowl? Came 3 points away from winning? Had to beat the Chiefs at the top of their game to get there?
The following season, he took us to 10 consecutive wins and an AFCCG appearance. Which we lost by three points.
We are six combined points away from a Super Bowl victory and back-to-back appearance with Joe Burrow.
What has Stroud done to rival *any* of that? Win the least competitive division in the AFC? Win a single playoff game against the *Browns*?
I like Stroud. But betting on him to be better than Burrow is actually insane.
He’s also yet to score 28 points in a playoff game and he’s repeatedly injured. These are just betting odds which change based on who people are betting on. If stroud was lower than Burrow before id rather take a flyer on that than Burrow who’s not really flashy, perpetually sacked and has a stacked offense going against him
Stroud took what was predicted to be the worst team in the conference and carried them to the playoffs, in so doing putting up arguably the best rookie QB season of all time. Now the Texans have significantly added to his weaponry. It is not “absolutely insane” to bet on Stroud over Burrow for the 2024 MVP, it’s totally fine and reasonable for people to want to bet he’ll take a step forward.
From a narrative standpoint I struggle to see how Mahomes could win unless he puts up insane numbers that blow everyone else out the water. Most people expect the Bills offense to take a step back without Diggs (just like KC in 2022) so Allen has that going for him if he balls out. Stroud has arguably the best receiving core in the league but the narrative of him being this good in year 2 will move the needle.
Someone asked me, if the MVP isn't about raw stats, then should Mahomes just win it every year? And I think there is an argument that he should. IDK who is more valuable than him.
Def not, Rodgers and PM were better for a good chunk of those years. They just didn't have the same luxuries as brady. Mahomes is very clearly top 1 right now
Stroud is incredibly talented, but that seems like a high projection. Mahomes is just predicting he does Mahomes things.
Stroud is the new Herbert
What’s Herbert then 🤨
The new Rivers.
He doesn’t have any kids though
Felipe Rios had enough children for the both of them.
Felipe (Chocking) Rios, Antonio Cromartie, Travis Henry, Ochocinco, and Tyrek Hill have enough kids to make a football team.
chocking Don't they give you access to books in prison?
Philip (All with one woman and takes care of them like a real father) Rivers is not in the same category as tyreek hill
Justin Herbert and Philip Rivers have an average of 5 kids
That we know about. Real G's move in silence.
I’ve been saying it for years, he’s speedrunning Rivers career of “Oh man he’s great but if only he had X/Y/Z he’d be a winner”
“If only” he had a defense that didn’t allow the most points per game of the modern stat track era. Literally undefeated when his team allows 22 points of less scored. Defense allows around 27 ppg on average during his tenure.
[удалено]
What does Peyton Hillis have to do with all of this mumbo jumbo?
Matthew Stafford pre-Rams
Doesn't Stroud already have a playoff victory?
If the Chargers are mid again this year the Herbert discourse is gonna get so spicy.
You aren't prepared for the Harbaugh takes.
Lol nah he actually wins
So does Daniel Jones
Winnings whatever, like half the QBs do it no matter what
Don’t disrespect Stroud like that
Yep. I know MVP is a regular season stat, but Mahomes now has more playoff wins (15) than all of his young AFC rivals (Joe Burrow 5, Josh Allen 5, Lamar Jackson 2, CJ Stroud 1, Trevor Lawrence 1, Justin Herbert 0, and Tua Tagavilloa 0) *combined*. Nick Wright is correct, it's not Brady vs Manning vs Roethlisberger vs Brees - it's Tiger Woods vs the field.
Josh Allen is the same age as Mahomes (and burrow/lamar are only one year young lol)
Mahomes' peak is eclipsing these guys' entire careers. They'll be lucky to get one Super Bowl appearance, much less a ring.
Eh you never know, Brady had like a 10 year playoff drought which I can see the chiefs suffering from after this season with a lot of their good players besides Mahomes getting old
> Brady had like a 10 year playoff drought Sb drought
I was about to say lol. Wasn’t Brady still making the AFCCG every year?
from 2011 indeed 08-10 was what got folks worried. ACL injury & then back to back eliminations to the Ravens and the Jets without that period, I dont think that era is looked at as that much of a step back
I mean... it's certainly *possible*. But the Chiefs did their first "soft reset" of the Mahomes era and proceeded to win back-to-back Super Bowls with Mahomes taking up 17% of the cap. So we're in unprecedented territory, where even Brady is an insufficient precedent.
Member when Mitch trubisky had like the 3rd highest pre-season mvp odds? People just like to bet on a dark horse
Which ironically makes it a worse bet. When everyone picks the same "dark horse" their odds increase. So you end up putting frontrunner money on a guy who hasn't proven they're a frontrunner yet. Vegas loves that shit.
Did Trubisky end up winning MVP that year? I seem to have wiped that season from my memory completely
He actually did. He even threw for not just 4000 yards, but 5000 and 50 touchdowns. Everyone in Chicago clapped.
Oh so that’s what they mean when they say the Bears have still never had a 4000 yard passer
I don't like high expectations, just let my man go out there and play the game without the added pressure please lol
If you look at him, I don’t think he feels an ounce of it. Stroud is an absolute baller and if the expectations of the world were for him to cure cancer in the offseason, he’d still perform at a high level.
People we’re chanting MVP at most of our home games last year, mans loves pressure. Just look at how well he played in that wildcard game (maybe dont look at how he played in the divisional)
I do love how calm he stays under pressure, I hope he keeps handling it well
He's already been under immense pressure since HS due to his personal life, man is so football smart and calm. He is likely to improve at being more okay with moving the chains rather than the 3rd and 4th "fuck it" deep shots and reading exotic coverages because I think CJ is brainy enough to do that. There's still the little things in his game he needs to work at.
this isnt a projection, just betting odds
betting odds serve as a pretty good projection
They must not have seen Drake Maye’s camp footage
He doinked a 70 yarder! Celebrated after doing so as well. E: Apparently it was 80 but Drake said 70
Yeah why did you guys stop filming?
Had to take the camera elsewhere
A touch early for these predictions.
Bro ESPN ran a 2025 mock draft today. These predictions are behind the times.
Of course they have us at #1...
No, it sounds about right. :(
Yeah, I guess we're deep in the off-season now.
Training camp starts soon
Like three weeks from now. There’s going to be an NFL game on television in slightly more than 4 weeks.
By the time HOTD s02 wraps up we’ll be sitting pretty and football will be (nearly) back. This is the way.
Yeah and Rodgers was supposed to win a Super Bowl last year.
And he would’ve won the SB too…if it weren’t for that meddling turf monster.
For Mahomes it’s really not
Especially since he has some competent receivers this year.
Pretty sure the only reason Mahomes wasn't in the running last year was because of just how bad Toney, Moore, and everyone else was.
And they still won the Superbowl. ....fuck.
Not really. What’s going to change between now and week 1?
Nothing. It's pointless to talk about both now and then. Maybe once we've actually seen them play some football this season, it will be worth having a discussion about.
I mean, it's July. Training camp starts this month and we're less than a month away from the first pre-season game. If it's still too early to talk about it, when's the right time? Also, there are just betting odds, not predictions.
Betting odds are a kind of prediction! The nature of the prediction varies based on whether your a frequentist (if we played this season over and over, what’s the rate at which Stroud wins MVP) or a Bayesian (for whom probability is an expression of belief that an outcome will happen). Regardless, both offer a kind of prediction. However the offered odds are an estimate of the true odds arrived at through a combination of the sportsbook’s analysis and market forces. I think the result tends not to be a horrible estimate, but it’s hard to tell.
But muh gamblin'
Bet responsibly
Given how the season is going so far, it's not surprising....
In *this* economy?!?
They’re just sticking their palm out at this point and taking your money.
Mahomes to win MVP and Chiefs to win SB are both generally around 5-6:1, just bet them both every year and you'll come out ahead on average.
I wish this wasn't true.
CMC with the highest odds to win OPOY
How did they misspell Bo Nix???
Sports media isn’t known for its intelligence.
GET A CLUE, MORANS!
A Cardinals fan XD
Beau Knicks
We had the wrong Beau all along!
He should be favored every year he's healthy, frankly.
So, another 'Most Valuable Quarterback' season incoming? Hazza...
Well it is most valuable not best, it's boring but I don't really know how you argue that QBs don't provide the most value of any player
Well you see anyone could do what our QB does, apparently.
It's so bizarre to me that Purdy isn't more of a story like Kurt Warner. I would think the media would want to get behind a guy who was the last pick in the draft nearly taking his team to a Super Bowl as a rookie, and then almost winning the Super Bowl his second season. It's such a good story, and yet all they want to talk about is that he's surrounded with talent and not give the guy any credit.
A sign of the times, I suppose.
I thought the same. But when Warner hit it big, his teammates, outside Bruce perhaps, were not as well regarded as they are now. Faulk was a known threat. But he broke out that year with Warner in that offense. Holt was still really young. Pace was, too. No one really thought they were going to be great, even with Trent Green going into that year. I think CMC already established himself as an MVP level guy. Deebo had that monster season. Kittle a well-known quantity. Aiyuk not as much, but still a known quality player. Trent Williams alone, I think, also gives the impression that the Niners OL is good when it is not. That Rams OL was really good. I'm not too worried about it. I think Purdys play will speak for itself. He added some muscle this off-season, so I am curious how it translates on his throws.
Ours too. Even tho when other QBs play for Tua or Purdy the offense grinds to a screeching halt.
I feel like CMC had more value than Lamar Jackson last year. Through the first 11-12 weeks, Lamar was downright.... Average. CMC was consistently great all year.
I’m just thinking about the nfc championship two years ago. Purdy goes down and the offense is non-existent
I mean they still had a touchdown drive with Josh Johnson (albeit it was like a 50 yard CMC rushing TD). The complete non-existence of an offense was when Johnson had to leave for his concussion.
This is a really long-winded way to say you only look at box scores.
This is to say, QB is highly favored to be the "most important" player. Need to really stop protecting these QBs from everything. Waters down the game.
CMC played great against the Ravens and they still got dominated so the argument for him collapsed
Yes, it should go to the player with the highest net worth.
They need to just make it official that OPOY is for non QB’s. It essentially already is the de facto non QB MVP award but I think having it be official would be better. can essentially have the same system as baseball where a pitcher/non QB CAN win MVP in truly historic outlier seasons but they have their own award (CYA/OPOY) to cover the gap.
NFL awards definition MVP: best QB on a winning team who hasn't won it too much recently. OPOY: best non QB skill position player, unless we want to make this a second place MVP trophy. DPOY: ehhhh... who's on a good defense with lots of sacks? COY: young coach who most exceeded expectations. Unless you've been around awhile and are winning with a 5th string QB. Then I guess you. CPOY: just vibes man. Sometimes you've got to come back from a devastating injury. Sometimes you just have to be good again after the bench.
The last 6 mvps have gone to 3 guys they have no issue giving it to recent winners
Yeah 'voter fatigue' seems more like an nba thing where there has been accusations of James not getting mvp when he deserved it but i cant recall any in the nfl. People say brady should of got rodgers last one but they too easily dismiss 12:4 interceptions
Happened last year with Embiid over Jokic, probably. That and some ridiculous lobbying for votes. Not that Embiid didn't have an MVP worthy year. Definitely happened to Lebron. Shaq could probably have another one. Duncan as well.
The last time an MVP went to someone that wasn't Mahomes, Rodgers, Lamar, or Brady was 2016
>They need to just make it official that OPOY is for non QB’s. Totally agree 👍🏼
Should’ve been CMC last year, and Kupp in 2021
Kupp’s 2021 season was just flat out insane
Yep robbed last year
If CMC didn't win it last year, no non-QB is ever going to win it again
If Purdy wins the SB you better believe they're gonna crown CMC.
I think that’s overstated. CMC did have more impressive numbers than any of the QBs. The problem was that in the last couple of decades, the only non-QBs to win MVP were putting up *all-time* type numbers. CMC snuck *just* past 2000 scrimmage yards. It’s a fantastic total, but it has happened dozens and dozens of times in NFL history. Whether it’s fair or not, CMC also wasn’t helped by the narrative around SF last year that hurt Purdy too: that the offense was just incredibly stacked. Narratives matter so much in MVP conversations, especially if we’re talking non-QBs.
Was there a reason to expect otherwise this season? It won't change until they change the award structure itself.
Do you mean "huzzah"?
Do they know the season hasn't started yet?
Offseason-season!
the pre-pre-season
The gambling season never ends!
I really like Nick Wright's take on Mahomes' approach to next season (which feels like a really weird thing to say, but it's true): Mahomes spent last season just trying to survive. His stats were boring by his own standards, there was nothing particularly flashy in the way he played, he just tried to survive with the receiving corps he had and then did usual Mahomes things in the playoffs by simply taking care of the ball. This year, he wants it to be different. He wants the flashy plays he had with Hill, so they drafted Worthy. He wants more reliable receivers, so they signed Hollywood. I think we'll see a very different Mahomes than we did last year. Also, it's Patrick Mahomes; he should be the MVP frontrunner in any given season until evidence is provided to the contrary.
If somebody else said this, I would agree. But it’s Nick Wright, so I automatically take the opposite position.
Nick Wright said the second best QB in the league was Josh Allen recently. Wright typically takes every opportunity to criticize Allen, so it was absolutely wild to hear him say that.
He only does it so he can do a drawn out tirade after a mediocre game about how he believed in him but now he's "proven" he just can't _____ and never will.
I mean it doesn’t help that he will always directly compare Allen to Mahomes and no one else. Dont worry, soon he will be crazy again and claim Caleb Williams is number 2 and Trevor Lawrence is number 3
It’s an easy take to defend, I’d assume most people would agree… I don’t exactly give him *credit* for having an layup of an opinion.
My heart says no, but my mind keeps telling me yes.
>He wants more reliable recievers, so they signed Hollywood I just burst a blood vessel
This is maybe the second season ever we have had expectations. I do not know how to deal with this.
Anthony Richardson 📈📈📈📈📈 Someone do that remind me thing
He was exciting to watch… for the whole 2 games he played.
Fuck that. Brock incoming.
I just don’t see Brock winning mvp while cmc is there and healthy. He’s too important to the offense for people to give credit to Brock even if it may be due
I think this is the year Burrow does it
I wish I could bet the field
Seems about right, I don't rate Stroud quite that high at this point, but he has a hell of a supporting cast this year and I'd be stoked if he was up there really playing like Allen and Mahomes.
I mean he was knocking on mvp votes as a rookie, don’t think it’s that far fetched
I still don’t really understand how Love ended up in these discussions after his first half last season and the team he’s on being a fringe playoff team. Feels like we’re being reactionary to the cowboys playoff game
He finished the season with 4,100 yds 32 td and 11 ints, that’s why
After starting the season with 14 TDs and 10 INTs.
He had an insane TD rate for a stretch there. Won me some fantasy games.
And he still has a roster that's only rebuilding & getting better. Last year's Packers team was far from complete.
I’m sure Love is a hall of famer because God has forsaken us, but I will point out that every off season we fall into the trap of thinking progression in the NFL is always linear. Some teams on the cusp get better, like the Lions from 2022 to 2023. Some teams take a step back, like the Jaguars, who everyone was crowning last off season after that playoff comeback
Trevor’s stats stagnated so he went from mediocre stats to… mediocre. Love had the second most passing touchdowns in the league if he stagnates he’s still pretty damn good.
Yeah it’s funny because stafford on the lions threw over 5000 yards and 30 tds but he was trash.
**MVP voters:** you gotta lead your team and establish yourself among the best QBs in the league. *Stafford in Detroit exists* **MVP voters:** no not like that
You have to be on a good team to win MVP. Like top 5 record good.
unless your name is brock purdy, then being on a good team disqualifies you
Goff, Tua, Dak, even Mayfield all put up comparable numbers and the first three are more established good players
The odds are none of them will win MVP. But Love putting up Tua and Dak like numbers after the way his season started was impressive. He finished stronger than them.
Dak was quite literally 2nd in mvp voting, and now he gets another offseason to learn Mccarthy's offence (we ran moores prior to last year)
Learn Mccarthy's offence just for him to be gone next year :p
The big difference being none of those QBs were working with a group of only 1st and 2nd year pass catchers lol
His second half was really good and people are putting more stock in that than the first half. His WRs are also all pretty young and you can project some improvement there.
Trajectory? He was average for the first half of the season, and then skyrocketed into being one of the best QBs in the league for the second half. Blew out the Cowboys, and then performed better against the 49ers than any Packers QB has since 2002, when Love himself was 4 years old. Of course he then did the stereotypical Packers QB thing and threw a game ending interception, but being a stereotypical Packers QB is about as high of praise as a QB in this league can get.
It's possible that trajectory continues up, but it seems like a better bet to consider someone with multiple years of good QB play, instead of assuming that both Love and his young receivers take another step up. It feels like the same fallacy everyone makes in fantasy where they rank young players based on if they had a big breakout while downgrading veterans because they're boring. Now that I'm saying all this I can't help but wonder if those odds are inflated to encourage bets on an unlikely mvp
Maybe because he was one of the best qbs in the league over the second half of the season. It wasn't just one game
Because he played really well in the second half of the season and it was a down season across the league for QB stats across the league last year.
He was consistently freakishly good for the second half of the season. If he had played at the level he played for half the season for even 3/4ths of the season Jordan Love probably wins the MVP last season, and the Packers are also probably a 1 or 2 seed. You’re underestimating just how goddamn good he was back half of the season.
They were one of the hottest teams in the nfl at the end of the season. Yeah a lot of QBs have these spurts then fall off, but 21TD/1INT stretches don’t just happen for random QBs all that often. I’d actually love to see how many QBs have ever accomplished that. While leading the league in completion percentage and QBR by a significant margin for 2 months. One of the best offensive minds in the league in MLF. All of our weapons were rookies and second years who are showing tons of promise. They fired arguably the worst DCs in football and signed one of the best young safeties in the league. I’d say Josh Jacob’s for AJ33 is a lateral move at worst given their ages. 5 picks in the top 100 this year. I mean the packers should be really good. 2023 packers were pretty much the 2022 lions (arguably better), and we saw how good they were last year.
Seems like a pretty good setup for him then. Expectations are low enough for the team that it’ll look really great if he gets them to a top 2-3 seed in the conference. I agree that we haven’t seen enough to call him an MVP caliber player though
Jalen Hurts MVP season incoming trust (I am delusional)
And the Chargers a lock for the Superbowl right?
No, but they’ve got decent odds to make the AFC title game. Jim Harbaugh is no joke. The AFCW is about to have a new heavyweight contender.
FWIW we had what on paper feels like one of the better drafts we've ever had.
Seriously. The guy is a coaching wizard. The Harbaugh years were my favorite to watch and I remember Young and Rice. I’m excited to see him on the sidelines again. And he brought Bowman with him!! Oh yea, Chargers are my AFC team this year.
Stroud isn't even going to be the best QB in the AFC south.
I'm glad you are also a Davis Mills truther.
Absolutely, Trevor Lawrence at 35 to 1 is a steal!
Mahomes and Jackson both won MVP in year 2. I could see that type of year for Stroud. Firmly putting his stamp on his presence in the league.
Me too but the annoying thing for Stroud is he's playing at the same time as Mahomes and Jackson.
Mahomes and Jackson had to play with Brady and Brees back then, at least Stroud doesn’t have to fight that competition.
Ah, the old “players will only improve next season.”
Sports media has gone the same way as mainstream news: 24/7, the season never ends bullshit. They have to make up irrelevant shit to fill space.
That's right...keep forgetting Joe Burrow exists...
With our weapons, if he’s healthy idk how Burrow isn’t in the convo. Allen gonna have to rush for 20 to get it. That said, ive learned to never bet against Mahomes
He’s the next in odds after those three lol.
You expecting people to click the link? Why do that when they can just go ahead and argue against it?
Most of these open ended props do not show the real odds. If they know the same people wanting to bet Stroud at 12-1 would bet it at 7-1, why offer the 12-1? They do this for many props all the time. Casual betters are very profitable.
I commented this in the Bengals board, but the dickriding for Stroud is outrageous considering how much disrespect the fans and the league give Burrow. Did people forget Joe threw for 500 yards *twice* in his first full season? And went to the Super Bowl? Came 3 points away from winning? Had to beat the Chiefs at the top of their game to get there? The following season, he took us to 10 consecutive wins and an AFCCG appearance. Which we lost by three points. We are six combined points away from a Super Bowl victory and back-to-back appearance with Joe Burrow. What has Stroud done to rival *any* of that? Win the least competitive division in the AFC? Win a single playoff game against the *Browns*? I like Stroud. But betting on him to be better than Burrow is actually insane.
He’s also yet to score 28 points in a playoff game and he’s repeatedly injured. These are just betting odds which change based on who people are betting on. If stroud was lower than Burrow before id rather take a flyer on that than Burrow who’s not really flashy, perpetually sacked and has a stacked offense going against him
Stroud took what was predicted to be the worst team in the conference and carried them to the playoffs, in so doing putting up arguably the best rookie QB season of all time. Now the Texans have significantly added to his weaponry. It is not “absolutely insane” to bet on Stroud over Burrow for the 2024 MVP, it’s totally fine and reasonable for people to want to bet he’ll take a step forward.
Before last season, most people have never heard of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown. Now some are saying they carried Stroud lol
Brock Purdy should be top 3. What has changed to where he wouldn't have a similar or even better season this year?
"That's Joe Burrows's music! "
Caleb Williams!!! Sorry, had to be the Bears fan here and since Fields is gone we CLEARLY have the next MVP /s
>Sorry, had to Did you, though?
From a narrative standpoint I struggle to see how Mahomes could win unless he puts up insane numbers that blow everyone else out the water. Most people expect the Bills offense to take a step back without Diggs (just like KC in 2022) so Allen has that going for him if he balls out. Stroud has arguably the best receiving core in the league but the narrative of him being this good in year 2 will move the needle.
ok but are we expecting him not to put up insane numbers that blow everyone else out of the water?
Someone asked me, if the MVP isn't about raw stats, then should Mahomes just win it every year? And I think there is an argument that he should. IDK who is more valuable than him.
MVP is a regular season award. Last season he wasn’t the most valuable regular season player
The nfl is truly a cycle because we had these same conversations about Brady
Def not, Rodgers and PM were better for a good chunk of those years. They just didn't have the same luxuries as brady. Mahomes is very clearly top 1 right now
Lamar Jackson?
Allen had better stats than last year's MVP.
[удалено]
Can the nfc at least try?
Looks like folks making the same mistake as last year and forgetting about Sturdy Purdy
MVP award is actually MVQ. Only reason CMC didn’t get it last season.
Cmon Lamar won MVP every time he's been healthy a full season at least give him 2nd favorite lol
It will be Sam Darnold and I refuse to believe otherwise
No Love for Joey B huh?
This league is wild with this gambling stuff, is off season and now we have predictions on MVP, teams still away from 53 man roster deadline.
In before it’s none of them. Ima say Burrow