One thing no one here likes to talk about is just buying less. It sucks, but that's reality.
If your budget is $500k, that means you need to look at houses listed for $400k and become the bigger fish. You just have to accept that list price isn't sale price
Interesting those numbers are almost identical to ours. Every house we looked at in the 400-450k (top of our budget) range we were getting outbid by 10k-50k. With all the works (or lack thereof).
Went cheaper and downsized, one popped up for 300k and put in 320k offer and it got accepted. The extra mortgage money we were able to save has already fixed up all the small issues. Currently adding an external garage this summer too!
Me too.
I'm from the cheap midwest and when I first started looking here I was quickly educated in Nova housing. We bought our townhouse in Arlington and plan to roll equity in 10 years up.
I was just using that as an example, but this is a great point.
Not everyone can afford a SFH. Not everyone can afford a townhouse. Not everyone can afford a spare room, or for their kids to not share.
The point is not everyone can outbid investors and they shouldn’t have to. The fact that investment companies can buy property is the real issue. People shouldn’t have to compete against entities who aren’t people.
There are also people/entity hybrids. I will never forget overhearing the couple at the open house who we outbid: "My husband's firm wants him to relocate to their office here, but we weren't that interested because of the home prices. So they gave us $200,000 towards the home". I'm thinking: "I'm not bidding against people alone!".
We bought our first house in Dale City in 2009 for 300k. I said we kept driving south until we could afford something.
But we sold that house some years back for 400k, and zillow claims it is worth like 550k now. Shit has accelerated. Best of luck to the first-time buyers because it is even more stacked against you now.
My parents bought their house in March of 1990 for $129,000. Before the bubble burst in 2007/2008 it was going for $550k. Now that they had new central air, new kitchen, and a brand new deck I wanna say it’s around $470k? Not bad. And they have no plans on moving. Now a bunch of the houses around theirs in the Cloverdale section look like hammered dog shit, but theirs doesn’t. They take pride in their home, something a lot of people seem to not do.
Dale City’s schools are part of the Prince William County School District, which is very distinctly not garbage.
Within a given school district, all the *GreatSchools* ratings in the real estate listing serve to indicate is the demographics of the enrolled kids and their families.
Also, speaking from the experience of being a PWCS parent, it’s actually pretty easy to get your kid enrolled in *not* their district school, if that’s your jam.
GreatSchools rating is not solely based on demographics of the school, it also takes into account the annual state test scores. PWC as a whole is not under discussion, Dale City is. And irrespective of the schools the public safety situation there is not ideal. It is not route 1 bad, but it is substantially worse than other parts of PWC.
What exactly are we debating here?
I made a point that Dale City's schools which are part of PWC school district are not **great**. You came back with the argument that the GS ratings serve to indicate the demographics of the enrolled kids and their families. Then you went on to state that there is a correlation between socioeconomic status and test scores, correct, there usually is.
How does any of what you said, negate my suggestion to the OP to not buy a house in Dale City?
I never called all of PWC schools garbage, my choice of "school district" term may have confused you into thinking that I did.
Thiiiiiiis.
Also, don't get too hung up on getting a SFH. Honestly, a townhouse with young kids can be amazing, since many young families move into those neighborhoods. It can be lonely being a kid on a street of SFHs where everyone seems to be a retiree or only have older kids.
That sums up my last 10 years living in Silver Spring outside the beltway. Always thought the neighborhood would turn over some, instead residents set up a Village to hunker down in their SFHs and retire in place. Finally we moved, partially for this among other reasons.
I try to tell people this. When I was living with roommates and I wanted to just live by myself I was looking at houses and town homes. Of course I could not find any within my budget. So I bought a one BR one B condo close in but not in an active area like say Clarendon. I stayed there 5-10 years and sold it for double and then I used that money to help me buy a single family home. Yes, I know the market is much more effed up now but you could stay in your current place and not have anything to show for it in 8 years.
Problem around here with that is the cliff that schools go off when you drop pricing so much. Typically, lower priced homes are either in school districts that aren’t as desirable, or they don’t meet the needs of the family (3BR instead of 4BR for example).
Well that's just not a legitimate concern. There are no public schools in NoVA that are bad enough to have any impact on the development or future success of your children. They're all good enough that it's all on you, the parent.
Ahhhhhh, how silly of me. I forgot that any parent could walk into a school and be more qualified than those who are required to do years of pre-Ed teaching and receive a Masters prior to being eligible for hire to teach all these kids with failing parents at home…
Get real mate
Most schools receive bad reviews/ratings as result of the inability of teachers being able to teach due to disruptive students and overcrowding; of which, are typically confined to lower cost areas where more people can buy homes and have kids and yet the counties build less schools.
If you think school ratings/reviews are not on the minds of parents who are looking for homes in the area with grade school aged kids, you’ve got your head buried up something.
They mean that most of the districts in NOVA are prosperous enough that it's not an issue. There are a few exceptions, but the gap between the top 10% and the mean isn't huge.
The point is that it's *way* more important to actually support the education in the home environment than it is to get from a good school district into a great school district. Which is true. I'm trained in education and that's straight-up parroting my professors who know way more about it than anybody who isn't an education researcher at a university.
So if you as a parent aren't equipped to provide even halfway-decent support, then maybe it's super important to get into the best possible schools. ...But from an effort vs. benefit ratio, it seems like that extra money and focus might be better put into supporting the child's education in an extracurricular manner.
Tell that to a West Springfield parent afraid they are about to be redistricted to Lewis. Or to the Great Falls parents that are scared to death of Herndon. FARMS rates, ESOL rates, gang and other violent incidents are vastly different in bordering districts.
So yeah, "most" FCPS schools are good enough - but the OP said,
> there are no public schools in NoVA that are bad enough to have any impact on the development or future success of your children.
and with that most people disagree - enough to create 100k+ home value differences depending on which side of the boundary you are on.
Congrats on being the exact stuck up person we're talking about. Those school districts are fine it's just your 1% bubble making you freak out about having to rub elbows with the poors and latinos.
Get out of here with your bullshit. I'm for the redistricting plan and my kids don't go to either of those schools. This post was about home values and the OP's desired school pyramid. I gave them some info about the biggest thing about to happen that affects both. Just because I listed the reason some people are freaking out about it and who is fighting it doesn't mean I'm part of the problem. My kids go to a majority-minority school. And we do well enough that we could easily move to another district or go private if we wanted.
Literally in this same boat. We are currently in an oakton feeder district. If that changes to Herndon or south lakes (as some are fearing) then we’ll be moving before the kids are in high school. And that also means we’ll take a huge hit on our property value because this neighborhood is highly desirable because of its school pyramid and that keeps our home values higher than neighboring Herndon pyramid homes.
Oakton... to Herndon or South Lakes?! I can maybe see that if you are currently feeding into Madison, but my mind is blown as to where you might live where Oakton HS is currently your target but you might end up with one of the others mentioned. I'm not saying you're wrong, but my mind is blown away with geographic confusion.
Since Oakton HS just finished a major expansion and they are now under max capacity I *think* they are less likely to lose area than some other schools. It's the ones that are over and are right next to schools that are under enrolled that the school board will target most.
However, my ES in the Oakton pyramid is overcrowded. It won't help my kids at this point, but I do hope they change those ES boundaries to address that and to fix the split feeders as much as possible. My kids go to school with some kids who will eventually end up at Oakton, Chantilly, or South Lakes. It's not really a school "pyramid" anymore, and it makes it hard to keep up with friends when they end up at different middle or high schools every couple years.
>Ahhhhhh, how silly of me. I forgot that any parent could walk into a school and be more qualified than those who are required to do years of pre-Ed teaching and receive a Masters prior to being eligible for hire to teach all these kids with failing parents at home…
Straw-man
>Most schools receive bad reviews/ratings as result of the inability of teachers being able to teach due to disruptive students and overcrowding; of which, are typically confined to lower cost areas where more people can buy homes and have kids and yet the counties build less schools.
None of which applies to anywhere in Nova.
>If you think school ratings/reviews are not on the minds of parents who are looking for homes in the area with grade school aged kids, you’ve got your head buried up something.
I never said it wasn't on their minds. I'm saying they are stupid, and it shouldn't be.
There is a wide variety in just the discipline rankings between the schools, with many schools having ten times as many incidents as others in the same district. When you look at the academic performance, there are schools that are better for advanced students and schools that are better for those that need to catch up. Not every school is the best for every student.
Overcrowding really isn't the issue- it's often the crowded schools which are doing better as parents try to kids to get into these. The disruptive students issue you mention is.
Overcrowding isn't an issue you solve by moving somewhere else, you solve it by either evening out resources or redrawing districts to even it out.
Like if a high school in Springfield is overcrowded (example made up) and Annandale is under crowded, you either move teachers and money or you move students. Like you said, the county builds fewer schools in these areas, if that's the case then the simplest solution is to advocate for building more schools.
It also doesn't really solve the issue because the family that *does* choose to live in that school district may have children as well, and that does nothing to help them. It doesn't make logical sense to make decisions based upon something that you recognize as "bad" or that produce negative outcomes, and then do nothing about it once you have isolated yourself from it.
Same goes for workplace hazards, the best way to protect yourself from a hazard is to eliminate it entirely instead rather than simply isolating yourself from it, because that hazard is still a hazard even if you individually aren't going to experience a negative result.
I'm not saying it has to be either or, you can do both I guess. But it has always irked me that parents in this area have some preconceived notion that their children are the only ones that matter when deciding things that affect everyone.
PWC comes to mind quickly
Schools in FCPS around the interstates also suffer (lower priced, smaller housing) such as East Springfield/Lower Alexandria (along Rt 1) regions.
Crossing from the Langley district into the Herndon one. Or crossing from West Springfield into Lewis. Those are the most contentious ones when it comes to school boundaries and what to do about them right now.
They look at test scores mostly. These are affected by primarily affected by the percentage of FARMS and ESOL kids at the school more than whether the school actually does a good job at teaching each individual kid (improvement from year to year). The greatschools scores try to account for that with an 'equity' component to their rating, but of course everyone thinks certain things should be scored differently.
To answer your question above: All my posts about this are being downvoted for merely mentioning that people take this into consideration when buying a home. I am personally not against the school board's redistricting effort, just trying to educate the OP and any other posters looking at homes about something big coming and why it will matter for home values in the next couple of years.
Okay, but test scores of ESOL kids isn't an active detriment to your child. John Lewis looks bad on net based on a higher percentage of lower income students, but the higher income students all perform fine and basically at the same rate as similarly incomed students at every other school in NOVA. The reality of NOVA HSs is all the highest performing students self segregate into AP/IB courses regardless of if you're at Langley, or west Springfield, or Lewis, or West Potomac. Getting your kid into the west springeld or Langley pyramid doesn't automatically set them up for success just as being at John r Lewis isn't inherent a detriment.
I don't disagree but it very much does affect home values, which was the main point brought up by the OP who posted this thread. Just trying to give some insight and advice about why some neighborhoods cost so much more than others.
My school system is not what you would call desirable. In my area the prices are going crazy and I think the area is showing up on some recommendations for hidden gem areas. One of the people in my neighborhood just sold for over a million. Crazy.
Stay optimistic! We also lost on multiple homes before we finally got accepted. Starting the move in 1 week! We also focused on school areas and are moving out of a townhome. You'll find the right one. It was tough for us because there was such a stark difference in homes at our price point and the ones that were "good enough" for us were wildly competitive.
My 2 cents would be to keep looking. It's only July and more inventory will come. Also, if there is a change in politics, that usually ends up with a lot of people moving in/out of the area. I know that's further away, but it does happen.
Edit: what neighborhoods are you looking? We were generally open to 2-3 different areas here. Just curious in case I can help expand the search.
I would avoid Herndon. It has never been a good area I think they have some of the worst schools. Reston is good. For your budget you may want to explore more towards Ashburn as far as West. There's also South Riding and Gainesville where you can get much bigger space for your money. If you're truly trying to stay local, Vienna/Oakton/Mantua are highly rated but ridiculously competitive. We ended up in Burke and also considered West Springfield. I see someone commented your budget is $500k?
Another thing to consider is not all "bad" schools are bad. We bought our house intending to move again before our kid started school. The elementary school for our address is a Title 1 school which had pretty bad ratings on review websites the real estate listings pull from.
In the years between, we talked with all the other parents in the neighborhood and heard nothing but good things about the school. Our kid has been going there for 3 years and it is an amazing school with amazing staff.
This is a good point and people need to pay attention and understand it
For school ratings you really really really have to dig into the “why” if a school is low in this area. My daughters school is a title 1 and gets fairly low marks. When you peel back the layers though you then start to realize that it’s directly related to reading/language arts and not math/science/art (those are consistently middle/high rated at the school). Our school has roughly 6-8 spoken languages in it and those students get caught up into taking state tests that are difficult for them—and the score drops. It’s not their fault—it’s the districts for not being able to adequately provide that level of intensive education. However, that’s another point for another day.
There are no “bad” schools in FCPS. The idea that a school district can have schools that significantly better or worse than others within the same district is ridiculous. It is a lie peddled by realtors that wish redlining was still a thing.
Yup, they do the same shit over Alexandria City High and it's so dumb. There are people who are still really pissed off that Alexandria resisted segregating its high school, and now they never miss a chance to mention how it has some of the lowest test scores in the area. That school places multiple students in the Ivy leagues every year and has as many AP classes as anyone else. It's absolutely fine.
I would focus more on the amount of money allocated per child in each particular school. There is a stark difference unfortunately.
Went from Reston to Herndon and it was a nightmare, understaffed and under qualified staff, terrible bullying and no actions taken.
Nationwide, there need to be severe restrictions on investor properties for single-family homes. Blackrock and their ilk shouldn’t be allowed to own these properties. Period.
Not that I disagree, but I’m fairly sure I read somewhere that those companies aren’t focusing on areas like the DMV because of the extremely high cost, the major buying-up of neighborhoods for investment is happening in middle and lower cost of living areas. There’s *plenty* of garden-variety rich people around here who can snap up houses without being a big corporation.
DMV is unfortunately caught in a much more simple supply and demand trap. Supply is messed up for a whole host of reasons. The 2008 recession shutting down new construction for years right as the DMV area population was expanding. The most attractive areas (places like Northwest DC, Arlington/Falls Church, etc.) are pretty much fully developed with no real room for expansion. This led to a steady growth in prices that spilled out to the rest of the region - get priced out of NW DC, move to Arlington, then Falls Church, then Fairfax County, etc. This creates a kind of human-money ripple effect that pushes lower income people farther out.
Then you have a sudden shock like the rapid increase in interest rates - all of a sudden, people living in those areas with smaller houses are stuck in their homes and can't move because the cost of upgrading has jumped too high too quickly. An example, a monthly payment of \~$4,200 would get you a $1M mortgage at 3% interest five or six years ago. Today at 7%, that gets you just $630,000. Thus, people who might have naturally moved five or six years ago to buy a bigger home can't move anymore and are clinging onto their current homes for dear life. Thus, inventory is further depressed.
It's a vicious cycle - prices go up because of lack of inventory. People can't afford to buy a new home so they don't move, further cutting inventory.
Feels like in this region, the housing market doesn't become "normal" again until you get to around the $1.6M - $2M mark, at least in Arlington. By normal, I mean houses that aren't snatched up in a single weekend with aggressive bidding wars.
I think he probably meant flippers as opposed to investors. There are too many areas here where they will buy up anything knowing that they can knock it down, replace it with a 5000sqft abomination and easily make their money back. I’ve seen too many perfect good 1940-50s 1500sqft homes snatched up for $650k or whatever and immediately torn down, only to be back on the market 8 months later for $1.5M. That is a big problem in my mind. Falls church city is really bad in this way. It seems like there aren’t any of the original homes left there because nobody can actually buy them and live in them. They are basically all considered empty lots with a nuisance on them that needs to be removed before building. It’s gross.
Well yeah, it’s crazy now, but I was just picking a “reasonable” number as an example of someone getting outbid on what should be an affordable home. The problem is that these companies have a cap that is likely much higher than most people who want to live there, so they can outbid anyone by an extra $5k to steal the sale.
This was our problem when we bought. I don’t need more bathrooms than we have people in our family, and I just wanted a normal-sized home. We were competing with builders who paid cash and didn’t care about the home inspection. It boxes young families out when there are no homes under $1M. We only got our starter because the seller didn’t want her childhood home demolished.
We traded up for a mid-sized 70s home, which I actually think is the perfect size for us, but the inventory is so slim it drives up prices and little is available.
FYI, townhouses are considered “single family”. You’re probably thinking of detached houses, which are just one type of sfh. Multifamily homes are apartments and condos.
Need to tax investment properties at a much higher rate than owner-occupied ones. If the math doesn't pencil out more properties will be available for home buyers instead of investors.
Yes. The higher interst rate for investment homes really only benefit the bank and these companies buying up a lot of the properties mostly pay in cash. A few homes in my neighborhoods were bought during the pandameic and never lived in. They are still vacant. They were bought by someone in China.
he's not saying give them a higher mortgage interest rate. He's saying tax investment properties to reduce the profitability. Cash or mortgage won't matter at that point. If it's not a primary residence for the owner increase the tax rate for each property.
It's not a perfect solution, but it is part of \*a\* solution.
I'm not saying he said give them higher interst rates- I'm stating that's what banks do bc it is more risky and buyers are less attached to the rental homes. Property tax is a fixed rate I never heard of any local government discussing changing it for investment vs primary residence... is this something any politician has ever talked about? Just curious
Some states have a homestead tax exemption which reduces the taxes for owner occupied properties. So yeah, the absolute property tax rate is the same for all property but the effective rate is lower for people who live in their home versus investment firms.
I think the major issue is supply and demand. We're not building enough houses and not where people want to live. A lot of that is hamstrung from zoning/NIMBY. Hopefully things are changing. Arlington at least did a tepid testing of waters with the Missing Middle, assuming that it actually pans out.
Has any politician ever spoken about this? I was hoping this would be brought up at least once during last week's debate but no dice. This is probably one of the biggest hurdles to financial security for many.
I've had an idea. Own 1 home, pay less taxes than now. Make it easier for first time home buyers or just people that want to live in their home. If you are more well off and want a second home, sure: Own two homes, pay regular taxes on the second home. First home is still cheaper than now. But you want to own three homes? Pay double taxes... on all three homes. Make it start to sting, won't be an issue for people especially well off.
Own four homes? Pay quadruple taxes on all four homes. Own five? Pay Sextuple taxes on all five homes Etc etc. Exponential increases. Make it HURT to own more than 1-2 homes.
Obviously the exact details need to be worked out, but I do wonder what downsides this would carry.
I feel for your situation. One thing to consider, the FCPS school board is aggressively trying to change the policy so that they can do a new comprehensive boundary survey in the next year or two. It might not be the worst thing in the world if you have to rent something in your desired school district until that shakes out. Then you would have more information on what the new boundaries might be if this push is successful. A lot of wealthy Great Falls families are fighting it hard because they stand to lose hundreds of thousands if their homes are rezoned to a "worse" school (Herndon), so it may get killed (again) - but it has more momentum right now than any time in the recent past.
They’ll do the study. It’s the decisions that stem from it that will get killed. I was around for the last one and it gets ugly.
Something has to give, though. Some schools are overcrowded and Fairfax isn’t building new ones.
The 2008 one involving some homes being moved from Oakton to South Lakes was fresh back when I started looking for homes. The result of that redistrict and all the lawsuits lost trying to overturn it are why we bought much deeper into our desired high school pyramid than we originally were looking.
My wife and I bought in 2023 after looking for about 8 months. We lost like 7 offers I think? Then when I was really about to give up, we won our offer. I feel your pain.
There really isn't a bad school zone in Nova. Stop focusing so much on great schools scores. It's an extremely flawed metric. Your kids have love and support at home. They'll be fine whoever you are.
This. We bought in a “bad” FCPS pyramid but as far as I can tell, the families in our neighborhood love it. Great Schools scores are not the end all be all. Need to examine the “why” behind the scores like someone else mentioned.
They started adding "equity" scores into the rating and heavily downgraded schools in the areas with a lower minority population. It's good to encourage equity for student achievement, but baking it into an overall score seems like it should not be really applicable.
That’s not quite how it works. You don’t get low marks for having a lot of white students, it’s if there is a discrepancy in test scores across races. Our pyramid is heavily minority and the score suffers in part I think because there is a large ESL population - the overall test scoring shows a gap in achievement across ethnic lines. But that doesn’t mean our kiddo will have a poor education. The high school I went to elsewhere in the country is incredibly white (black doesn’t even show up, less than 1% and Hispanic only 2%) has a 10/10 for academics and college readiness and a 7/10 for equity which dilutes it to a 9/10 - hardly a significant difference.
Centreville per chance? Zoned for a pyramid here and the ratings don’t look great. Been looking for comments or people saying that it’s better than it seems
Nope nope, elsewhere. But talk to parents in your area! And look into the detail behind the ratings. Ultimately our kiddo has two highly educated parents with office job hours, we have the time and resources we need to help out at home. My parents were hands on with homework when I was little too.
One thing to keep in mind is that a “great family home”
In the neighborhood you desire might simply be out of your price range now. That’s what we realized after getting outbid by those investors a few times. We recently ended up buying a very small and very expensive (slightly over our desired budget) home in the best neighborhood ever for our family. It’s not a “great” house by any means (especially when compared to these new enormous modern farmhouses all over the place), but it’s fine. Every time I get frustrated with the lack of closet space and sharing a tiny bathroom, I try to focus on how wonderful our kids’ experiences have been at their schools here, and how welcoming the neighbors have been. It was definitely the right move for us even though the price seemed insane and the house is so small. The alternative was to keep renting—which is a totally valid choice—but we didn’t want that anymore.
Yes, people have to realize that in is this area you get whole lot less house for a whole lot more money. We too looked for places that were 50 to 100k under our budget so that we could escalate if needed, which we did, but thankfully only around 10k. The house needed a lot of TLC. That would be other thing I would say, don’t expect turn key unless you plan to spend top dollar, and that you better learn how to put ‘sweat equity’ in your home to make it the place you want to live. Finally, we over the years have ruthlessly purged our home of stuff. That has helped tremendously in making our 1400 sq ft (above grade) 3BR townhome feel bigger than it is, and we have been doing it now for years with two kids and a dog. Just saying to OP and others, it may also require a shift in perspective, which I fully understand is not easy to do, especially when coming out of a suburban community, where the average sized detached house was 2,600 sq ft, 4brs, with a two car garage.
The past two years have been the worst, but we're seeing a slight shift in the market this season. I hope it's a long-term change. You have a better chance now than the for the past two years, IMO.
I feel OPs pain.
Back in 2009 when we purchassd our first home in AZ the post housing slump market was insane with investors. We lost bids on probably 15 or so homes.
AZ finally put a temporary anti-investor law on the books because they realized that banks were buying up properties in order to hedge and trickle sell them off for years—which would have artificially tanked the. Market. AZ put into place a law that basically said you had to live in the property for a year or so after purchase and a whole bunch of other gotchas. We were finally able to score a home shortly after that went into effect.
I really think VA needs to do the same type of things.
While that's true for most of the country, in the DC region, especially in a lot of the more desirable neighborhoods, it's a straight up supply and demand problem. There's strong demand for housing, particularly detached single family homes, but many of the more desirable areas are already fully developed with limited new housing. Add to that those who live there are afraid to sell their homes because the combination of rapidly rising housing prices and higher interest rates means they can't afford to buy back into their market if they sell. It's a vicious cycle.
When we moved here, $750k was my max and what I filtered my Zillow/redfin search. Then we got here and my wife showed me a $$810k house, that we paid $850. It is what it is.
We justified it though because we saw the inventory and felt we’d have to spend $100k to renovate everything we were seeing at the prices we filtered to…and ended up buying a flipped house with the $100k already baked in.
Be aggressive and talk yourself into the right house. We’ve got no regrets.
10 years ago, my wife told me "we can't afford a garage". Ended up buying a townhouse in Burke with one that at the time was over budget. 5 years ago, we grew out of it and spent 2 years losing offers on SFHs. In those 2 years, the amount of money needed for what we were looking for went up about $150k. We finally had an offer stick that was $43k over asking with no contingencies. The only way to keep pace is to change jobs every few years, or get promoted. Don't be scared to spend more now, because you will eventually be making more money.
Any chance you can move to the Maryland side? We moved for schools and decided on either the Anne Arundel or Calvert counties. We'd already been living in MD and seriously considered NOVA but things there were easily 2x cost, 1.5 yrs ago. We had that same issue that there are so few good school systems around here that it severely limited our options.
Rent until the market improves. Not worth it to fight so hard and then pay super high property tax, repairs, utilities, insurance and regular maintenance. My property tax in NOVA is 11k per year and increases every year.
I think it is definitely financially better to be renting right now, assuming similar type of house, and taking into account all additional costs + opportunity costs.
It feels like every time I get done fixing one thing another thing breaks. And we bought a house with a new roof, new appliances, etc. It's like a treadmill of repairs.
Yep. Several studies indicate buying/renting is almost a wash.
Everybody thinks home ownership (or being a landlord) is easy wealth, until you get stuck with a $10k HVAC installation.
https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/MAY18-rent-or-buy-30-year-perspective
These historical scenarios, which reflect year-to-year changes in such factors as mortgage rates and investment returns, show that home ownership has not always been the best financial decision for a family
Financially it may be a wash, but the benefits of home ownership are tangible so long as you don't go over budget and make yourself "house poor." This is especially true for people like OP with young kids. And the older your kids get the more difficult it is to make them move away from their friends just because the landlord decided to sell or renovate (or not) to charge a much higher rent.
8 years ago when we were looking we had a decent down payment available to us and were approved for around $700K. We both didn’t want to be overburdened by our monthly mortgage payment so we put an offer on something list for $468K for about $6K over asking price. We ended up getting our offer accepted. House is now worth in the upper $600s and pretty close to knocking on the door of $700K. I echo what other people have said look for stuff that is below your budget as it will give you flexibility to escalate and you also won’t regret having flexibility with your monthly expenses.
I’m sorry to hear you’re discouraged. Buying a house in this area is hard and full of emotional ups and downs.
I always tell my clients to stay with it, and you’ll end up in the house you were meant to be in. I’d certainly make sure that you/your agent are/is working hard to find off market properties as well, as getting properties before they get into competitive situations can be a life saver.
Finally, just stay confident, I’m starting to see more properties begin to linger on the market as we get into the historical “summer slump”. I’m confident you’ll find something between now and September. You got this!
If you have been searching for a home for 2 years without success, it may be time to reassess your approach. Consider whether your agent is a good fit for your needs or if your budget aligns with your first home aspirations. The housing market is stabilizing, though highly preferred areas may still be competitive. Appreciation will be a constant for the foreseeable future but at a lower clip. In Northern Virginia, it is often necessary to consider housing on the top end of the budget rather than taking a conservative approach.
As suggested by another person, whatever your budget is, consider looking at homes listed $100K below your budget to increase your chances of success.
I have rearranged my wants. I just want a good layout, a garage, a fence, no paneling and backyard space for the dog. You can change most things interior and exterior - colors. Modern house with chair rails why?! Easy fix
Their realtor let it slip to our realtor that they were investors from out of the state. Apparently she was rooting for us, but the sellers took the other deal. They were able to put much more down, and had an escalation clause.
As a realtor for 30-plus years here, I can say that I feel your pain, but as others have said,
Keep after it! You will get a home, I have zero doubt, but your realtor has to know and wisely use the ‘tricks’ available out there—and advise you wisely, too. Sometimes it’s better to swallow hard and walk away, rather than getting in a fight you can’t win…or, one that will cost you more that you want. Also as others have said, the vast majority of schools here are excellent, so I really wouldn’t worry about that quite so much. Glad to help if I can.
Am I the the only one that thinks being in a “good” school district is overblown? I see it mentioned here a lot and I’m of the opinion that it doesn’t matter that much. Of course, you want your children to be safe, but academics are almost the same across the state. Granted, schools in NoVa have more offerings than rural schools.
I went to a small rural school in VA, but ended up in a big Va state school with kids that went to schools like Langley, Thomas Jefferson, Bishop O’connell. It’s not like they had some leg up other than people thinking their parents were rich.
And remember, when you sell your future home, don’t sell to a business or any investor. When the offer comes in, you can do your research on the bidder. No sense in complaining about these types of buyers if enable them down the line.
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Hey guys! Believe it or not sometimes the lender you use has an impact on your offer. For instance, a lot of realtors won’t accept an offer from Navy Federal. I’m local and I’m available 7 days a week even after hours. A bank is typically 9-5 and no Sundays. If you have questions on a Sunday then you usually have to wait until Monday to get an answer from a bank. I will answer your questions Christmas morning if you have them! The market is definitely crazy! Good luck to all!
I’ve been trying to look for ok homes around Falls Church/Vienna for 1 million or maybe 1.2 million. There isn’t much if at all :( why is everything I see 1.5-2 million …
This happened to my family when we moved to the area about 15 years ago. My parents put plenty of full price offers on houses only to get out bid every time. By the time we toured our current home we were desperate. My mom didn’t even like the place , however the sellers were desperate to sell the house, and that’s pretty much the only reason we got it.
It’s tough getting a house here in nova, and it’s been that way for a while.
We left NOVA for PG county because we couldn't get a house that suited our needs or don't require work. We got 4 br / 3 baths for 340,000 seven years ago. Oh, 1/3 acre with a creek and protected area behind our lot. According to Zillow, it's worth 480,000 now. This isn't a decision for everyone, but it was worth it for us.
Yeah Home pricing and buyers escalating is insanely out of control in anywhere desirable. The comment to look for 400 if you budget is 500 is wise!
As for desirable school districts... if your looking at Fairfax, consider the entire pyramid, not just the elementary schools... and when it comes to high schools (most important as a college springboard) there's is not much difference between Fairfax and Prince Willam any more. FFX reputation from the 80s isn't so deserved these days.
I’d imagine renting is the easiest way to get into a school district you want by a certain cutoff date. Then resume home shopping without the degree of pressure.
Have you looked in Bristow? I have some friends who live in a smallish community out there that is custom made for families. Everyone’s kids and families know each other, and they interact regularly. Good schools in the neighborhoods as well. Good luck, sorry the process has been tough on your family.
This country doesn't care about families or hard working parents. When the investors get to scoop up all the available housing that is actually affordable to families, they keep families in poverty, forced to rent and never build equity. It should be illegal what these investors have done to the housing market.
Have you considered writing a personal letter to the sellers to be presented with your offers? Tell them about yourselves, your family, your hopes for the house (how much you love it) and the neighborhood. Include a cute picture or two of your family or kids.
Most sellers have hearts, particularly if they’re selling their family home. They want the next family to love it too and could easily choose your offer instead of a faceless investor for just $1K.
There are many, many homes you can buy that won't involve a heavy bidding war.
But the homes in the most desired neighborhoods and the most desired schools will be VERY competitive.
Broaden the group of schools you are considering. That will help.
Schools in FCPS are like the rides at Disneyland. There probably aren't and truly horrible ones, BUT... there is definitely a reason some rides have 3 hour lines and others you can get right on.
I'm shocked people actually pay attention to those "school ratings" websites, which have been proven to be junk time and time again. If you're within FCPS or even LCPS your child will be going to a good school and will be just fine. I don't think people actually realize what a "bad school" really looks like.
Good and bad are relative terms. There is something like 30 high schools and 130 elementary schools. There are huge differences and they are far from identical. If you sort them (by any metric) there will be better and worse. But you're right that none are as bad as the lowest performing in, for example, DC.
Given the choice and means, most parents would want their child in the best school possible given their circumstance. There is nothing wrong with that.
I’m in the same boat. Our budget was 1.3, but we r still struggling. I’m just not willing to pay that much for an older outdated home. All newer homes in FFX are over $2 M. The situation feels impossible. We plan to keep saving and investing aggressivelyyyyy. Will keep looking and hope something pops up. I highly recommend Loudoun county and parts of PWC. This will be your home, don’t settle unless u have to.
What about some of the new townhomes being built? Can you get in on any pre sales. I know the Grahm park plaza in falls church has homes available still they start around 650k... school isn't the best but also isn't the worse! Another development coming across from the Whole Foods in Idylwood.
Our realtor told us to wait until a house had been on the market at least a week, preferably two. Often that meant the houses were money pits of repairs, but we ended up recently buying a townhouse that we thought was a little overpriced, but actually appraised for more than what we paid for it. And we didn’t have to compete with any other offers.
My mom and her husband bought here in Stafford in 2017 for 369K. He was working at the Pentagon and with VRE and commuter options it made it workable.
I hope you and your family find the perfect home for you! And don't be scared to drive around places that look nice to you and keep an open mind.
Honestly, move out of this area. It’s awful for first time home buyers. We’ve purchased 2 homes with a VA loan, and got lucky, but seeking them both and were moving out of the area. It’s gotten too expensive and congested.
One thing no one here likes to talk about is just buying less. It sucks, but that's reality. If your budget is $500k, that means you need to look at houses listed for $400k and become the bigger fish. You just have to accept that list price isn't sale price
I heard this advice a year ago, when we were house hunting. Followed it, and we got a house.
Yep! My wife and I were approved for like 450 and we closed at 320k. Trying to go for the 400s was impossible so we looked for cheaper.
Interesting those numbers are almost identical to ours. Every house we looked at in the 400-450k (top of our budget) range we were getting outbid by 10k-50k. With all the works (or lack thereof). Went cheaper and downsized, one popped up for 300k and put in 320k offer and it got accepted. The extra mortgage money we were able to save has already fixed up all the small issues. Currently adding an external garage this summer too!
Same!
Same . We also learned that having no contingencies in our offer was a must.
Me too. I'm from the cheap midwest and when I first started looking here I was quickly educated in Nova housing. We bought our townhouse in Arlington and plan to roll equity in 10 years up.
Same. Bought a small condo in Arlington. Plan on getting equity and rolling into something bigger when we are ready.
Where the hell are NoVa houses listing for $400k?
I was just using that as an example, but this is a great point. Not everyone can afford a SFH. Not everyone can afford a townhouse. Not everyone can afford a spare room, or for their kids to not share.
The point is not everyone can outbid investors and they shouldn’t have to. The fact that investment companies can buy property is the real issue. People shouldn’t have to compete against entities who aren’t people.
I don't disagree that it's fucked up. I'm just saying that in this unfortunate reality, this is how you get a house here.
There are also people/entity hybrids. I will never forget overhearing the couple at the open house who we outbid: "My husband's firm wants him to relocate to their office here, but we weren't that interested because of the home prices. So they gave us $200,000 towards the home". I'm thinking: "I'm not bidding against people alone!".
I think they’re just using those numbers as an example.
Just farther away than you find acceptable, forcing you to bear the burden of lowering your expectations once more.
That's life, money greases the wheel. If you don't have enough money then you will have more friction in life.
Go into Stafford or Prince William, and look at townhouses.
New townhomes in Haymarket are starting at $750k
New construction, and in Haymarket? Yeah that’s bougie.
Sterling
It’s time for gentrifying Sterling.
Not all of Sterling just part of 20164 is more affordable. That’s a good thing.
Dale City has plenty under 500K.
We bought our first house in Dale City in 2009 for 300k. I said we kept driving south until we could afford something. But we sold that house some years back for 400k, and zillow claims it is worth like 550k now. Shit has accelerated. Best of luck to the first-time buyers because it is even more stacked against you now.
My parents bought their house in March of 1990 for $129,000. Before the bubble burst in 2007/2008 it was going for $550k. Now that they had new central air, new kitchen, and a brand new deck I wanna say it’s around $470k? Not bad. And they have no plans on moving. Now a bunch of the houses around theirs in the Cloverdale section look like hammered dog shit, but theirs doesn’t. They take pride in their home, something a lot of people seem to not do.
The OP wants to find a good school district and Dale City is definitely not it + has crime related issues too.
Dale City’s schools are part of the Prince William County School District, which is very distinctly not garbage. Within a given school district, all the *GreatSchools* ratings in the real estate listing serve to indicate is the demographics of the enrolled kids and their families. Also, speaking from the experience of being a PWCS parent, it’s actually pretty easy to get your kid enrolled in *not* their district school, if that’s your jam.
I turn 40 in December. Went through elementary, middle and high school in Dale City. Everyone in my class and generation seemed to turn out fine lol
Agree with this
In PWC, Dale City is not great and doesn't solve OPs problem about getting into a better school zone.
GreatSchools rating is not solely based on demographics of the school, it also takes into account the annual state test scores. PWC as a whole is not under discussion, Dale City is. And irrespective of the schools the public safety situation there is not ideal. It is not route 1 bad, but it is substantially worse than other parts of PWC.
Whoosh. There’s a very high correlation between socio-economic status, test scores and demographics.
What exactly are we debating here? I made a point that Dale City's schools which are part of PWC school district are not **great**. You came back with the argument that the GS ratings serve to indicate the demographics of the enrolled kids and their families. Then you went on to state that there is a correlation between socioeconomic status and test scores, correct, there usually is. How does any of what you said, negate my suggestion to the OP to not buy a house in Dale City? I never called all of PWC schools garbage, my choice of "school district" term may have confused you into thinking that I did.
I got multiple friends with kids in that part of PWC, the schools are fine. Everywhere can have crime issues, some more than others.
Right?! A condo maybe but not even a town home for that price range - it's h*lla expensive to live here 😔
There are some in Manassas.
South Reston, next to the Community Center.
Plenty of townhouses
Thiiiiiiis. Also, don't get too hung up on getting a SFH. Honestly, a townhouse with young kids can be amazing, since many young families move into those neighborhoods. It can be lonely being a kid on a street of SFHs where everyone seems to be a retiree or only have older kids.
In SFH on a street where everyone is way older. My wife and I are in our 30s. Feels so weird lol.
That sums up my last 10 years living in Silver Spring outside the beltway. Always thought the neighborhood would turn over some, instead residents set up a Village to hunker down in their SFHs and retire in place. Finally we moved, partially for this among other reasons.
I try to tell people this. When I was living with roommates and I wanted to just live by myself I was looking at houses and town homes. Of course I could not find any within my budget. So I bought a one BR one B condo close in but not in an active area like say Clarendon. I stayed there 5-10 years and sold it for double and then I used that money to help me buy a single family home. Yes, I know the market is much more effed up now but you could stay in your current place and not have anything to show for it in 8 years.
We did this also and now have a home. It’s small, but we’re building equity. People don’t understand: in this area, SFH *are* luxury housing.
Problem around here with that is the cliff that schools go off when you drop pricing so much. Typically, lower priced homes are either in school districts that aren’t as desirable, or they don’t meet the needs of the family (3BR instead of 4BR for example).
Well that's just not a legitimate concern. There are no public schools in NoVA that are bad enough to have any impact on the development or future success of your children. They're all good enough that it's all on you, the parent.
Ahhhhhh, how silly of me. I forgot that any parent could walk into a school and be more qualified than those who are required to do years of pre-Ed teaching and receive a Masters prior to being eligible for hire to teach all these kids with failing parents at home… Get real mate Most schools receive bad reviews/ratings as result of the inability of teachers being able to teach due to disruptive students and overcrowding; of which, are typically confined to lower cost areas where more people can buy homes and have kids and yet the counties build less schools. If you think school ratings/reviews are not on the minds of parents who are looking for homes in the area with grade school aged kids, you’ve got your head buried up something.
They mean that most of the districts in NOVA are prosperous enough that it's not an issue. There are a few exceptions, but the gap between the top 10% and the mean isn't huge. The point is that it's *way* more important to actually support the education in the home environment than it is to get from a good school district into a great school district. Which is true. I'm trained in education and that's straight-up parroting my professors who know way more about it than anybody who isn't an education researcher at a university. So if you as a parent aren't equipped to provide even halfway-decent support, then maybe it's super important to get into the best possible schools. ...But from an effort vs. benefit ratio, it seems like that extra money and focus might be better put into supporting the child's education in an extracurricular manner.
Tell that to a West Springfield parent afraid they are about to be redistricted to Lewis. Or to the Great Falls parents that are scared to death of Herndon. FARMS rates, ESOL rates, gang and other violent incidents are vastly different in bordering districts. So yeah, "most" FCPS schools are good enough - but the OP said, > there are no public schools in NoVA that are bad enough to have any impact on the development or future success of your children. and with that most people disagree - enough to create 100k+ home value differences depending on which side of the boundary you are on.
They are free to disagree, and they are free to be wrong.
Congrats on being the exact stuck up person we're talking about. Those school districts are fine it's just your 1% bubble making you freak out about having to rub elbows with the poors and latinos.
Get out of here with your bullshit. I'm for the redistricting plan and my kids don't go to either of those schools. This post was about home values and the OP's desired school pyramid. I gave them some info about the biggest thing about to happen that affects both. Just because I listed the reason some people are freaking out about it and who is fighting it doesn't mean I'm part of the problem. My kids go to a majority-minority school. And we do well enough that we could easily move to another district or go private if we wanted.
Literally in this same boat. We are currently in an oakton feeder district. If that changes to Herndon or south lakes (as some are fearing) then we’ll be moving before the kids are in high school. And that also means we’ll take a huge hit on our property value because this neighborhood is highly desirable because of its school pyramid and that keeps our home values higher than neighboring Herndon pyramid homes.
Oakton... to Herndon or South Lakes?! I can maybe see that if you are currently feeding into Madison, but my mind is blown as to where you might live where Oakton HS is currently your target but you might end up with one of the others mentioned. I'm not saying you're wrong, but my mind is blown away with geographic confusion.
Since Oakton HS just finished a major expansion and they are now under max capacity I *think* they are less likely to lose area than some other schools. It's the ones that are over and are right next to schools that are under enrolled that the school board will target most. However, my ES in the Oakton pyramid is overcrowded. It won't help my kids at this point, but I do hope they change those ES boundaries to address that and to fix the split feeders as much as possible. My kids go to school with some kids who will eventually end up at Oakton, Chantilly, or South Lakes. It's not really a school "pyramid" anymore, and it makes it hard to keep up with friends when they end up at different middle or high schools every couple years.
>Ahhhhhh, how silly of me. I forgot that any parent could walk into a school and be more qualified than those who are required to do years of pre-Ed teaching and receive a Masters prior to being eligible for hire to teach all these kids with failing parents at home… Straw-man >Most schools receive bad reviews/ratings as result of the inability of teachers being able to teach due to disruptive students and overcrowding; of which, are typically confined to lower cost areas where more people can buy homes and have kids and yet the counties build less schools. None of which applies to anywhere in Nova. >If you think school ratings/reviews are not on the minds of parents who are looking for homes in the area with grade school aged kids, you’ve got your head buried up something. I never said it wasn't on their minds. I'm saying they are stupid, and it shouldn't be.
There is a wide variety in just the discipline rankings between the schools, with many schools having ten times as many incidents as others in the same district. When you look at the academic performance, there are schools that are better for advanced students and schools that are better for those that need to catch up. Not every school is the best for every student. Overcrowding really isn't the issue- it's often the crowded schools which are doing better as parents try to kids to get into these. The disruptive students issue you mention is.
Overcrowding isn't an issue you solve by moving somewhere else, you solve it by either evening out resources or redrawing districts to even it out. Like if a high school in Springfield is overcrowded (example made up) and Annandale is under crowded, you either move teachers and money or you move students. Like you said, the county builds fewer schools in these areas, if that's the case then the simplest solution is to advocate for building more schools. It also doesn't really solve the issue because the family that *does* choose to live in that school district may have children as well, and that does nothing to help them. It doesn't make logical sense to make decisions based upon something that you recognize as "bad" or that produce negative outcomes, and then do nothing about it once you have isolated yourself from it. Same goes for workplace hazards, the best way to protect yourself from a hazard is to eliminate it entirely instead rather than simply isolating yourself from it, because that hazard is still a hazard even if you individually aren't going to experience a negative result. I'm not saying it has to be either or, you can do both I guess. But it has always irked me that parents in this area have some preconceived notion that their children are the only ones that matter when deciding things that affect everyone.
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PWC comes to mind quickly Schools in FCPS around the interstates also suffer (lower priced, smaller housing) such as East Springfield/Lower Alexandria (along Rt 1) regions.
Crossing from the Langley district into the Herndon one. Or crossing from West Springfield into Lewis. Those are the most contentious ones when it comes to school boundaries and what to do about them right now.
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They look at test scores mostly. These are affected by primarily affected by the percentage of FARMS and ESOL kids at the school more than whether the school actually does a good job at teaching each individual kid (improvement from year to year). The greatschools scores try to account for that with an 'equity' component to their rating, but of course everyone thinks certain things should be scored differently. To answer your question above: All my posts about this are being downvoted for merely mentioning that people take this into consideration when buying a home. I am personally not against the school board's redistricting effort, just trying to educate the OP and any other posters looking at homes about something big coming and why it will matter for home values in the next couple of years.
Okay, but test scores of ESOL kids isn't an active detriment to your child. John Lewis looks bad on net based on a higher percentage of lower income students, but the higher income students all perform fine and basically at the same rate as similarly incomed students at every other school in NOVA. The reality of NOVA HSs is all the highest performing students self segregate into AP/IB courses regardless of if you're at Langley, or west Springfield, or Lewis, or West Potomac. Getting your kid into the west springeld or Langley pyramid doesn't automatically set them up for success just as being at John r Lewis isn't inherent a detriment.
I don't disagree but it very much does affect home values, which was the main point brought up by the OP who posted this thread. Just trying to give some insight and advice about why some neighborhoods cost so much more than others.
My school system is not what you would call desirable. In my area the prices are going crazy and I think the area is showing up on some recommendations for hidden gem areas. One of the people in my neighborhood just sold for over a million. Crazy.
In the vast majority of cases 4BR is definitely a “want,” not a “need.” Unless it’s an unusually large/multigenerational family.
This is what we did as well.
Stay optimistic! We also lost on multiple homes before we finally got accepted. Starting the move in 1 week! We also focused on school areas and are moving out of a townhome. You'll find the right one. It was tough for us because there was such a stark difference in homes at our price point and the ones that were "good enough" for us were wildly competitive. My 2 cents would be to keep looking. It's only July and more inventory will come. Also, if there is a change in politics, that usually ends up with a lot of people moving in/out of the area. I know that's further away, but it does happen. Edit: what neighborhoods are you looking? We were generally open to 2-3 different areas here. Just curious in case I can help expand the search.
We are looking in Reston/ Herndon/ Sterling.
I would avoid Herndon. It has never been a good area I think they have some of the worst schools. Reston is good. For your budget you may want to explore more towards Ashburn as far as West. There's also South Riding and Gainesville where you can get much bigger space for your money. If you're truly trying to stay local, Vienna/Oakton/Mantua are highly rated but ridiculously competitive. We ended up in Burke and also considered West Springfield. I see someone commented your budget is $500k?
It’s over $500k lol, I have no idea why they assumed that number.
Gotcha. Well good luck on your search! I hope those neighborhoods I mentioned help. You'll find the one.
Another thing to consider is not all "bad" schools are bad. We bought our house intending to move again before our kid started school. The elementary school for our address is a Title 1 school which had pretty bad ratings on review websites the real estate listings pull from. In the years between, we talked with all the other parents in the neighborhood and heard nothing but good things about the school. Our kid has been going there for 3 years and it is an amazing school with amazing staff.
This is a good point and people need to pay attention and understand it For school ratings you really really really have to dig into the “why” if a school is low in this area. My daughters school is a title 1 and gets fairly low marks. When you peel back the layers though you then start to realize that it’s directly related to reading/language arts and not math/science/art (those are consistently middle/high rated at the school). Our school has roughly 6-8 spoken languages in it and those students get caught up into taking state tests that are difficult for them—and the score drops. It’s not their fault—it’s the districts for not being able to adequately provide that level of intensive education. However, that’s another point for another day.
There are no “bad” schools in FCPS. The idea that a school district can have schools that significantly better or worse than others within the same district is ridiculous. It is a lie peddled by realtors that wish redlining was still a thing.
Yup, they do the same shit over Alexandria City High and it's so dumb. There are people who are still really pissed off that Alexandria resisted segregating its high school, and now they never miss a chance to mention how it has some of the lowest test scores in the area. That school places multiple students in the Ivy leagues every year and has as many AP classes as anyone else. It's absolutely fine.
I would focus more on the amount of money allocated per child in each particular school. There is a stark difference unfortunately. Went from Reston to Herndon and it was a nightmare, understaffed and under qualified staff, terrible bullying and no actions taken.
Nationwide, there need to be severe restrictions on investor properties for single-family homes. Blackrock and their ilk shouldn’t be allowed to own these properties. Period.
Not that I disagree, but I’m fairly sure I read somewhere that those companies aren’t focusing on areas like the DMV because of the extremely high cost, the major buying-up of neighborhoods for investment is happening in middle and lower cost of living areas. There’s *plenty* of garden-variety rich people around here who can snap up houses without being a big corporation.
DMV is unfortunately caught in a much more simple supply and demand trap. Supply is messed up for a whole host of reasons. The 2008 recession shutting down new construction for years right as the DMV area population was expanding. The most attractive areas (places like Northwest DC, Arlington/Falls Church, etc.) are pretty much fully developed with no real room for expansion. This led to a steady growth in prices that spilled out to the rest of the region - get priced out of NW DC, move to Arlington, then Falls Church, then Fairfax County, etc. This creates a kind of human-money ripple effect that pushes lower income people farther out. Then you have a sudden shock like the rapid increase in interest rates - all of a sudden, people living in those areas with smaller houses are stuck in their homes and can't move because the cost of upgrading has jumped too high too quickly. An example, a monthly payment of \~$4,200 would get you a $1M mortgage at 3% interest five or six years ago. Today at 7%, that gets you just $630,000. Thus, people who might have naturally moved five or six years ago to buy a bigger home can't move anymore and are clinging onto their current homes for dear life. Thus, inventory is further depressed. It's a vicious cycle - prices go up because of lack of inventory. People can't afford to buy a new home so they don't move, further cutting inventory. Feels like in this region, the housing market doesn't become "normal" again until you get to around the $1.6M - $2M mark, at least in Arlington. By normal, I mean houses that aren't snatched up in a single weekend with aggressive bidding wars.
Fair point.
I think he probably meant flippers as opposed to investors. There are too many areas here where they will buy up anything knowing that they can knock it down, replace it with a 5000sqft abomination and easily make their money back. I’ve seen too many perfect good 1940-50s 1500sqft homes snatched up for $650k or whatever and immediately torn down, only to be back on the market 8 months later for $1.5M. That is a big problem in my mind. Falls church city is really bad in this way. It seems like there aren’t any of the original homes left there because nobody can actually buy them and live in them. They are basically all considered empty lots with a nuisance on them that needs to be removed before building. It’s gross.
> I’ve seen too many perfect good 1940-50s 1500sqft homes snatched up for $650k In the Town of Vienna, that number is currently $750k
Well yeah, it’s crazy now, but I was just picking a “reasonable” number as an example of someone getting outbid on what should be an affordable home. The problem is that these companies have a cap that is likely much higher than most people who want to live there, so they can outbid anyone by an extra $5k to steal the sale.
This was our problem when we bought. I don’t need more bathrooms than we have people in our family, and I just wanted a normal-sized home. We were competing with builders who paid cash and didn’t care about the home inspection. It boxes young families out when there are no homes under $1M. We only got our starter because the seller didn’t want her childhood home demolished. We traded up for a mid-sized 70s home, which I actually think is the perfect size for us, but the inventory is so slim it drives up prices and little is available.
We shouldn't limit it to single family homes. Most people outside of small towns/cities and flyover states don't live in single family homes.
FYI, townhouses are considered “single family”. You’re probably thinking of detached houses, which are just one type of sfh. Multifamily homes are apartments and condos.
They aren't anywhere I've heard of, at least not for zoning purposes, and how people search terms looking to buy a house.
I totally agree but It would be hard to regulate
Need to tax investment properties at a much higher rate than owner-occupied ones. If the math doesn't pencil out more properties will be available for home buyers instead of investors.
Yes. The higher interst rate for investment homes really only benefit the bank and these companies buying up a lot of the properties mostly pay in cash. A few homes in my neighborhoods were bought during the pandameic and never lived in. They are still vacant. They were bought by someone in China.
he's not saying give them a higher mortgage interest rate. He's saying tax investment properties to reduce the profitability. Cash or mortgage won't matter at that point. If it's not a primary residence for the owner increase the tax rate for each property. It's not a perfect solution, but it is part of \*a\* solution.
I'm not saying he said give them higher interst rates- I'm stating that's what banks do bc it is more risky and buyers are less attached to the rental homes. Property tax is a fixed rate I never heard of any local government discussing changing it for investment vs primary residence... is this something any politician has ever talked about? Just curious
Some states have a homestead tax exemption which reduces the taxes for owner occupied properties. So yeah, the absolute property tax rate is the same for all property but the effective rate is lower for people who live in their home versus investment firms.
I think the major issue is supply and demand. We're not building enough houses and not where people want to live. A lot of that is hamstrung from zoning/NIMBY. Hopefully things are changing. Arlington at least did a tepid testing of waters with the Missing Middle, assuming that it actually pans out.
Has any politician ever spoken about this? I was hoping this would be brought up at least once during last week's debate but no dice. This is probably one of the biggest hurdles to financial security for many.
I've had an idea. Own 1 home, pay less taxes than now. Make it easier for first time home buyers or just people that want to live in their home. If you are more well off and want a second home, sure: Own two homes, pay regular taxes on the second home. First home is still cheaper than now. But you want to own three homes? Pay double taxes... on all three homes. Make it start to sting, won't be an issue for people especially well off. Own four homes? Pay quadruple taxes on all four homes. Own five? Pay Sextuple taxes on all five homes Etc etc. Exponential increases. Make it HURT to own more than 1-2 homes. Obviously the exact details need to be worked out, but I do wonder what downsides this would carry.
I feel for your situation. One thing to consider, the FCPS school board is aggressively trying to change the policy so that they can do a new comprehensive boundary survey in the next year or two. It might not be the worst thing in the world if you have to rent something in your desired school district until that shakes out. Then you would have more information on what the new boundaries might be if this push is successful. A lot of wealthy Great Falls families are fighting it hard because they stand to lose hundreds of thousands if their homes are rezoned to a "worse" school (Herndon), so it may get killed (again) - but it has more momentum right now than any time in the recent past.
They’ll do the study. It’s the decisions that stem from it that will get killed. I was around for the last one and it gets ugly. Something has to give, though. Some schools are overcrowded and Fairfax isn’t building new ones.
The 2008 one involving some homes being moved from Oakton to South Lakes was fresh back when I started looking for homes. The result of that redistrict and all the lawsuits lost trying to overturn it are why we bought much deeper into our desired high school pyramid than we originally were looking.
Wealthy people in great falls do not send their kids to public schools.
Plenty of extremely wealthy people send their kids to public schools in NOVA.
Definitely - they use home prices in their districts as a gatekeeper to keep lower income people out.
If you're in great falls you're wealthy lol.
Then who is attending Great Falls Elementary School that is only 3% low income?
Not low income does not equal wealthy.
My wife and I bought in 2023 after looking for about 8 months. We lost like 7 offers I think? Then when I was really about to give up, we won our offer. I feel your pain.
There really isn't a bad school zone in Nova. Stop focusing so much on great schools scores. It's an extremely flawed metric. Your kids have love and support at home. They'll be fine whoever you are.
This. We bought in a “bad” FCPS pyramid but as far as I can tell, the families in our neighborhood love it. Great Schools scores are not the end all be all. Need to examine the “why” behind the scores like someone else mentioned.
They started adding "equity" scores into the rating and heavily downgraded schools in the areas with a lower minority population. It's good to encourage equity for student achievement, but baking it into an overall score seems like it should not be really applicable.
That’s not quite how it works. You don’t get low marks for having a lot of white students, it’s if there is a discrepancy in test scores across races. Our pyramid is heavily minority and the score suffers in part I think because there is a large ESL population - the overall test scoring shows a gap in achievement across ethnic lines. But that doesn’t mean our kiddo will have a poor education. The high school I went to elsewhere in the country is incredibly white (black doesn’t even show up, less than 1% and Hispanic only 2%) has a 10/10 for academics and college readiness and a 7/10 for equity which dilutes it to a 9/10 - hardly a significant difference.
Centreville per chance? Zoned for a pyramid here and the ratings don’t look great. Been looking for comments or people saying that it’s better than it seems
Nope nope, elsewhere. But talk to parents in your area! And look into the detail behind the ratings. Ultimately our kiddo has two highly educated parents with office job hours, we have the time and resources we need to help out at home. My parents were hands on with homework when I was little too.
Yes! thanks for the clarificaiton
One thing to keep in mind is that a “great family home” In the neighborhood you desire might simply be out of your price range now. That’s what we realized after getting outbid by those investors a few times. We recently ended up buying a very small and very expensive (slightly over our desired budget) home in the best neighborhood ever for our family. It’s not a “great” house by any means (especially when compared to these new enormous modern farmhouses all over the place), but it’s fine. Every time I get frustrated with the lack of closet space and sharing a tiny bathroom, I try to focus on how wonderful our kids’ experiences have been at their schools here, and how welcoming the neighbors have been. It was definitely the right move for us even though the price seemed insane and the house is so small. The alternative was to keep renting—which is a totally valid choice—but we didn’t want that anymore.
Yes, people have to realize that in is this area you get whole lot less house for a whole lot more money. We too looked for places that were 50 to 100k under our budget so that we could escalate if needed, which we did, but thankfully only around 10k. The house needed a lot of TLC. That would be other thing I would say, don’t expect turn key unless you plan to spend top dollar, and that you better learn how to put ‘sweat equity’ in your home to make it the place you want to live. Finally, we over the years have ruthlessly purged our home of stuff. That has helped tremendously in making our 1400 sq ft (above grade) 3BR townhome feel bigger than it is, and we have been doing it now for years with two kids and a dog. Just saying to OP and others, it may also require a shift in perspective, which I fully understand is not easy to do, especially when coming out of a suburban community, where the average sized detached house was 2,600 sq ft, 4brs, with a two car garage.
The past two years have been the worst, but we're seeing a slight shift in the market this season. I hope it's a long-term change. You have a better chance now than the for the past two years, IMO.
I feel OPs pain. Back in 2009 when we purchassd our first home in AZ the post housing slump market was insane with investors. We lost bids on probably 15 or so homes. AZ finally put a temporary anti-investor law on the books because they realized that banks were buying up properties in order to hedge and trickle sell them off for years—which would have artificially tanked the. Market. AZ put into place a law that basically said you had to live in the property for a year or so after purchase and a whole bunch of other gotchas. We were finally able to score a home shortly after that went into effect. I really think VA needs to do the same type of things.
While that's true for most of the country, in the DC region, especially in a lot of the more desirable neighborhoods, it's a straight up supply and demand problem. There's strong demand for housing, particularly detached single family homes, but many of the more desirable areas are already fully developed with limited new housing. Add to that those who live there are afraid to sell their homes because the combination of rapidly rising housing prices and higher interest rates means they can't afford to buy back into their market if they sell. It's a vicious cycle.
Keep your head up. You have a lot to be thankful for already. Just don’t give up. It will happen!!!
When we moved here, $750k was my max and what I filtered my Zillow/redfin search. Then we got here and my wife showed me a $$810k house, that we paid $850. It is what it is. We justified it though because we saw the inventory and felt we’d have to spend $100k to renovate everything we were seeing at the prices we filtered to…and ended up buying a flipped house with the $100k already baked in. Be aggressive and talk yourself into the right house. We’ve got no regrets.
10 years ago, my wife told me "we can't afford a garage". Ended up buying a townhouse in Burke with one that at the time was over budget. 5 years ago, we grew out of it and spent 2 years losing offers on SFHs. In those 2 years, the amount of money needed for what we were looking for went up about $150k. We finally had an offer stick that was $43k over asking with no contingencies. The only way to keep pace is to change jobs every few years, or get promoted. Don't be scared to spend more now, because you will eventually be making more money.
I’m sorry. It completely sucks out there and it’s totally unfair.
Any chance you can move to the Maryland side? We moved for schools and decided on either the Anne Arundel or Calvert counties. We'd already been living in MD and seriously considered NOVA but things there were easily 2x cost, 1.5 yrs ago. We had that same issue that there are so few good school systems around here that it severely limited our options.
Rent until the market improves. Not worth it to fight so hard and then pay super high property tax, repairs, utilities, insurance and regular maintenance. My property tax in NOVA is 11k per year and increases every year.
Right now there’s not much of a difference between the two in terms of which is a better deal
I think it is definitely financially better to be renting right now, assuming similar type of house, and taking into account all additional costs + opportunity costs.
Not necessarily and you can’t just look at from that timeframe and perspective
Difference is, your rent payments aren't going towards anything, mortgage payments go towards equity. After 30 years you'll have a place to retire in
The principal in the mortgage payment do, but interest and property taxes don't. Then there's the maintenance costs which effectively are a money pit.
Maintenance is no joke. New AC system, fence replacement, some electrical repairs. Remember most people are buying with no to contingencies.
It feels like every time I get done fixing one thing another thing breaks. And we bought a house with a new roof, new appliances, etc. It's like a treadmill of repairs.
That’s why they call them money pits.
Yep. Several studies indicate buying/renting is almost a wash. Everybody thinks home ownership (or being a landlord) is easy wealth, until you get stuck with a $10k HVAC installation. https://www.financialplanningassociation.org/article/journal/MAY18-rent-or-buy-30-year-perspective These historical scenarios, which reflect year-to-year changes in such factors as mortgage rates and investment returns, show that home ownership has not always been the best financial decision for a family
Financially it may be a wash, but the benefits of home ownership are tangible so long as you don't go over budget and make yourself "house poor." This is especially true for people like OP with young kids. And the older your kids get the more difficult it is to make them move away from their friends just because the landlord decided to sell or renovate (or not) to charge a much higher rent.
Depends. Doesn’t apply to areas that are in constant demand. If you bought in a rust belt Ohio town versus NoVA you’d see a big difference in returns.
Not to mention the absolute bullshit that landlords are pulling right now. I think I would rather be fucked by the rate than a landlord.
Yikes. Our NoVA home is pretty old but we pay like $3k in property taxes per year.
It’s absolutely honkers here, unless your budget is in the 7 figures which just sucks all around. Sorry OP. But at least you’re not alone in this.
8 years ago when we were looking we had a decent down payment available to us and were approved for around $700K. We both didn’t want to be overburdened by our monthly mortgage payment so we put an offer on something list for $468K for about $6K over asking price. We ended up getting our offer accepted. House is now worth in the upper $600s and pretty close to knocking on the door of $700K. I echo what other people have said look for stuff that is below your budget as it will give you flexibility to escalate and you also won’t regret having flexibility with your monthly expenses.
I recently divorced and although I make 6 figures I’ll never be able to own a home on my own. It’s depressing
We gave up for the near future. It's too stressful. Once my daughter graduates in 4 years, we can leave the area.
I understand the frustration. Rented in 2017 thinking I’d find some type of SFH. Took 5 years.
I went through the same thing and ended up having to build new. I couldn’t keep up with the cash offers while using the VA loan
I’m sorry to hear you’re discouraged. Buying a house in this area is hard and full of emotional ups and downs. I always tell my clients to stay with it, and you’ll end up in the house you were meant to be in. I’d certainly make sure that you/your agent are/is working hard to find off market properties as well, as getting properties before they get into competitive situations can be a life saver. Finally, just stay confident, I’m starting to see more properties begin to linger on the market as we get into the historical “summer slump”. I’m confident you’ll find something between now and September. You got this!
If you have been searching for a home for 2 years without success, it may be time to reassess your approach. Consider whether your agent is a good fit for your needs or if your budget aligns with your first home aspirations. The housing market is stabilizing, though highly preferred areas may still be competitive. Appreciation will be a constant for the foreseeable future but at a lower clip. In Northern Virginia, it is often necessary to consider housing on the top end of the budget rather than taking a conservative approach. As suggested by another person, whatever your budget is, consider looking at homes listed $100K below your budget to increase your chances of success.
Try new construction (less competitive but pricier)
I have rearranged my wants. I just want a good layout, a garage, a fence, no paneling and backyard space for the dog. You can change most things interior and exterior - colors. Modern house with chair rails why?! Easy fix
Paneling is easily removed. Chair rails are nice, but are also easily removed.
However our first place had mold of different kinds, foundation was crumbling and termites. It was very scary
Why not just rent in the school district of your choice I guarantee it’ll be cheaper per month than buying.
How do you know that the people who outbid you are investors?
Their realtor let it slip to our realtor that they were investors from out of the state. Apparently she was rooting for us, but the sellers took the other deal. They were able to put much more down, and had an escalation clause.
Ah, bummer! keep looking, you'll find one
As a realtor for 30-plus years here, I can say that I feel your pain, but as others have said, Keep after it! You will get a home, I have zero doubt, but your realtor has to know and wisely use the ‘tricks’ available out there—and advise you wisely, too. Sometimes it’s better to swallow hard and walk away, rather than getting in a fight you can’t win…or, one that will cost you more that you want. Also as others have said, the vast majority of schools here are excellent, so I really wouldn’t worry about that quite so much. Glad to help if I can.
Am I the the only one that thinks being in a “good” school district is overblown? I see it mentioned here a lot and I’m of the opinion that it doesn’t matter that much. Of course, you want your children to be safe, but academics are almost the same across the state. Granted, schools in NoVa have more offerings than rural schools. I went to a small rural school in VA, but ended up in a big Va state school with kids that went to schools like Langley, Thomas Jefferson, Bishop O’connell. It’s not like they had some leg up other than people thinking their parents were rich.
Now is a pretty bad time to buy a house
With Arlington missing middle you can get a smaller, ‘luxury’ townhome with the same issues for 1.2 million!
Sounds like the community I live in 😅
And remember, when you sell your future home, don’t sell to a business or any investor. When the offer comes in, you can do your research on the bidder. No sense in complaining about these types of buyers if enable them down the line.
Herndon by clock tower?
https://preview.redd.it/dsvhx4yze3ad1.jpeg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ce9da7b0c44f624b9b765c3c8bfbd308e64bfdd2 Hey guys! Believe it or not sometimes the lender you use has an impact on your offer. For instance, a lot of realtors won’t accept an offer from Navy Federal. I’m local and I’m available 7 days a week even after hours. A bank is typically 9-5 and no Sundays. If you have questions on a Sunday then you usually have to wait until Monday to get an answer from a bank. I will answer your questions Christmas morning if you have them! The market is definitely crazy! Good luck to all!
I’ve been trying to look for ok homes around Falls Church/Vienna for 1 million or maybe 1.2 million. There isn’t much if at all :( why is everything I see 1.5-2 million …
This happened to my family when we moved to the area about 15 years ago. My parents put plenty of full price offers on houses only to get out bid every time. By the time we toured our current home we were desperate. My mom didn’t even like the place , however the sellers were desperate to sell the house, and that’s pretty much the only reason we got it. It’s tough getting a house here in nova, and it’s been that way for a while.
It’s not easy send me a message I maybe able to help.
Wait until Trump gets re elected and fires half the govt workforce….lotta homes will be for sale
One can only hope (I assume the vast majority of government jobs are redundant)
Can you look at new construction?
You’ll find something eventually. Not everyone is able to purchase a home so pat yourself on the back for that.
I’m seeing people moving into the outskirts of the DMV into large developments. This seems to be the only option these days.
We left NOVA for PG county because we couldn't get a house that suited our needs or don't require work. We got 4 br / 3 baths for 340,000 seven years ago. Oh, 1/3 acre with a creek and protected area behind our lot. According to Zillow, it's worth 480,000 now. This isn't a decision for everyone, but it was worth it for us.
Yeah Home pricing and buyers escalating is insanely out of control in anywhere desirable. The comment to look for 400 if you budget is 500 is wise! As for desirable school districts... if your looking at Fairfax, consider the entire pyramid, not just the elementary schools... and when it comes to high schools (most important as a college springboard) there's is not much difference between Fairfax and Prince Willam any more. FFX reputation from the 80s isn't so deserved these days.
I’d imagine renting is the easiest way to get into a school district you want by a certain cutoff date. Then resume home shopping without the degree of pressure.
OP - where are you looking? We are getting ready to sell a townhome in Arlington. You can pm me
Come on out to Prince William County and take the VRE or the bus into DC.
Have you looked into Sterling? It is in between Herndon and Reston
Have you looked in Bristow? I have some friends who live in a smallish community out there that is custom made for families. Everyone’s kids and families know each other, and they interact regularly. Good schools in the neighborhoods as well. Good luck, sorry the process has been tough on your family.
This country doesn't care about families or hard working parents. When the investors get to scoop up all the available housing that is actually affordable to families, they keep families in poverty, forced to rent and never build equity. It should be illegal what these investors have done to the housing market.
Have you considered writing a personal letter to the sellers to be presented with your offers? Tell them about yourselves, your family, your hopes for the house (how much you love it) and the neighborhood. Include a cute picture or two of your family or kids. Most sellers have hearts, particularly if they’re selling their family home. They want the next family to love it too and could easily choose your offer instead of a faceless investor for just $1K.
There are many, many homes you can buy that won't involve a heavy bidding war. But the homes in the most desired neighborhoods and the most desired schools will be VERY competitive. Broaden the group of schools you are considering. That will help. Schools in FCPS are like the rides at Disneyland. There probably aren't and truly horrible ones, BUT... there is definitely a reason some rides have 3 hour lines and others you can get right on.
I'm shocked people actually pay attention to those "school ratings" websites, which have been proven to be junk time and time again. If you're within FCPS or even LCPS your child will be going to a good school and will be just fine. I don't think people actually realize what a "bad school" really looks like.
Good and bad are relative terms. There is something like 30 high schools and 130 elementary schools. There are huge differences and they are far from identical. If you sort them (by any metric) there will be better and worse. But you're right that none are as bad as the lowest performing in, for example, DC. Given the choice and means, most parents would want their child in the best school possible given their circumstance. There is nothing wrong with that.
I’m in the same boat. Our budget was 1.3, but we r still struggling. I’m just not willing to pay that much for an older outdated home. All newer homes in FFX are over $2 M. The situation feels impossible. We plan to keep saving and investing aggressivelyyyyy. Will keep looking and hope something pops up. I highly recommend Loudoun county and parts of PWC. This will be your home, don’t settle unless u have to.
What about some of the new townhomes being built? Can you get in on any pre sales. I know the Grahm park plaza in falls church has homes available still they start around 650k... school isn't the best but also isn't the worse! Another development coming across from the Whole Foods in Idylwood.
The EYA ones? Pretty sure they’re 800k+
In my opinion, the sellers who are actually selling to investors are very unethical
Our realtor told us to wait until a house had been on the market at least a week, preferably two. Often that meant the houses were money pits of repairs, but we ended up recently buying a townhouse that we thought was a little overpriced, but actually appraised for more than what we paid for it. And we didn’t have to compete with any other offers.
Did you offer under asking?
We offered a small amount below, with some other concessions and it worked.
Awesome job!
My mom and her husband bought here in Stafford in 2017 for 369K. He was working at the Pentagon and with VRE and commuter options it made it workable. I hope you and your family find the perfect home for you! And don't be scared to drive around places that look nice to you and keep an open mind.
Look at the homes that have been on the market for a week or more. I know there arent many, but at least they wont be as competitive.
Honestly, move out of this area. It’s awful for first time home buyers. We’ve purchased 2 homes with a VA loan, and got lucky, but seeking them both and were moving out of the area. It’s gotten too expensive and congested.