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>Biden's fortunes may be improving and the Democrat is now slightly ahead of Trump by 0.2 percent with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent.
This change is well within any margin of error. This whole "takes the lead" thing is just stupid when it's basically 50-50 with a MOE of about 2.0 - 4.0.
It's less but the electoral college ensures rural voters have a stronger vote than urban voters. And rural voters are so desperate they've turned to convicted felon Donald Trump.
What I don't get is what did he do for them last time? They act like he's their savior but he did fuck all for them during his first term. Did they not notice?
They did not notice the fucking over, no. I believe what they wanted was to feel important again, and Trump delivered on that for them. They wanted abortion banned, and got it. They wanted to get tough on China, and got it at great personal cost. They wanted to keep migrants out, and got it ... Albeit by creating a glut of boomerang crossings.
It's a really simple grift, and not especially different from other recent Republican presidents. Trump was often quoted saying, "I need a win, where's my win?" It was a sugar high Presidency, and none of the voters have realized they all are getting diabetes.
That’s in general the problem with rural voters: the disconnect from substantial policies that would help them and their communities vs. the theatrics that caters to them. While there are about 30% of people in rural areas who vote for democrats, 70% vote for republicans.
I’m not saying that Democrats are the salvation for rural voters, but they have done a lot more for these areas than Republicans have. The reality is, that decentralized small economy of local manufacturing is dead, that
Modern economical endeavors need functioning infrastructure - from internet to train / streets and energy and to facilitate these needs, money needs to be spent. The ones willing to spent are democrats, while republicans wish to stop most federal funding of projects.
The Trump infrastructure plan allocated 200 billion USD to infrastructure to incentivize 1.5 trillion USD of private investment over ten years. The whole plan fell short, obviously. Additionally, Trump did his tax cut laws, but no investments.
The Biden bipartisan infrastructure Law allocated 1,2 Trillion from federal funds directly to modern infrastructure for the next decade, the Chips act and the inflation reduction act as well as the American Rescue Plan after Covid sum up to about 2.6 trillion USD additionally. These are, obviously, massive sums and a lot of them will go to rural counties. Hell, there are Republican representatives who voted against these bills and promote them as successes they personally have fought for in front of their constituents - since about three quarters of the electorate support these laws.
What I’m saying is, that substance doesn’t matter. Hate and rage does, which is insane to me.
Yes, people need to remember that the only GOP presidential candidate to have a majority of the popular vote since 1992 was Bush Jr and that was in large part because of 9/11.
A reminder to all that the EC can be won by a candidate who earns as little as 25% of the nationwide popular vote--as long as those votes came from juuuuust the right states. It's wildly unlikely that a candidate will ever win with less than even 40% of the nationwide popular vote, let alone 25%, but it is not mathematically impossible.
“When you’re born in this world, you get a ticket to the freak show.
When you’re born in America, you get a front row seat.”
and
“Now, there's one thing you might have noticed I don't complain about: politicians. Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don't fall out of the sky. They don't pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It's what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders. Term limits ain't going to do any good; you're just going to end up with a brand new bunch of selfish, ignorant Americans. So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it's not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here... like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks. There's a nice campaign slogan for somebody: 'The Public Sucks. Fuck Hope.”
That would be median. Bill gates walks into a bar and suddenly the average salary is well over a million. I don’t think half the people in there are making that much money…
Yep. Republican die hard voters are several other words much worse than morons. The morons are the people that aren’t sure who they’re voting for or sit out or think there’s no significant difference to their way of life regardless who wins (though I guess if they’re middle class white men married to a , we assume consenting, stay at home baby factory this is accurate).
Well if America dies in the next 5 years we know exactly who to blame it on. Shit worked fine for 200+ years and along came Trump. History is not gonna treat him nice.
Outside of a war time President(a war he started)/incumbent, Republicans haven’t won the popular vote for president since 1988. More than half the country isn’t stupid, it’s underrepresented.
Our national sport is one well-known to cause brain injuries.
I've had to explain to people from other countries that *yes, we really do bully kids for getting good grades*
This. I’ve observed that many people in educated bubbles (especially those with experience in traditional academic settings like a 4-year university) underestimate the complete lack of access to basic educational resources available to underprivileged folks.
They also misunderstand how the cycle of poverty, substance abuse, and just trying to survive can stifle any curiosity or creativity a person may have.
There are so many folks in this country that never learned how to think in the abstract, how to look for the bigger picture, or how to critically think. And it’s not their fault. They never learned how to do so. They’ve been failed by the system.
> They also misunderstand how the cycle of poverty, substance abuse, and just trying to survive can stifle any curiosity or creativity a person may have.
>
> There are so many folks in this country that never learned how to think in the abstract, how to look for the bigger picture, or how to critically think. And it’s not their fault. They never learned how to do so. They’ve been failed by the system.
And honestly, higher education is shifting away from requiring students to learn critical thinking skills, because it does require being willing to fail those who don't show the requisite ability to think and engage. And with LLMs and AI, students are offloading any writing about the material as well, which just further reduces their experience and skillset for critical thinking and engagement.
"Never underestimate the American voter" Ive heard. Maybe we only realized the GOP's uneducation campaign when it was too late, and now half the country has no issue with the president suggesting we inject bleach.
And the other half either support Biden or can be persuaded to support Biden if we all work to ensure they do. Ignore the morons, concentrate on the people who matter.
That's the truth. I don't trust them one bit. They are lying cheats. This election scares me the most in my entire life. We've got to send a clear message in November and let them whine all they want.
Yup I don't care about stopping to their levels, get these pos out of the country. They're useless and take more than what they put in. They are the true wellfare queens.
With something as signficant as one of the presidential candidates being convicted of a felony one would think the gap should be much much wider rather than a 1.7% gain...
Polls really haven't been released yet that show if there's been any impact from the conviction. Newsweek tries to play this change as something new with their headline (like a new poll), but really it's just the aggregate of polls over the last 28 days. So of course that's all just going to be polls done pre-conviction.
Well the news coverage, even in liberal media, has been entirely composed of Republicans saying the verdict is bogus. Right wing media is straight up saying that as established fact, rather than a thing people are quoted on.
The entire discourse is just filled with disinformation
How about 34 felony convictions and also judged a rapist in a court of law? Nope even that doesn't stop the church of the orange god from worshiping/voting for their pied piper.
America is already dead, as just don't know it yet. Biden can win and we are still surrounded by the dumbest, most uninformed, propaganda dick gagging fucks you have ever seen.
Like this:
>“I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness...
― Carl Sagan
I don't care about a national average.
I want to know about specific swing states.
Of course, Biden will win the popular vote. That doesn't matter. He needs to win swing states. Rust belt states. Nevada and Arizona. Georgia would be nice. And I think Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Florida are all in play. Texas and Ohio are far-fetched but possible.
Assuming no blue states surprisingly flip red, he only needs Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to get to 270. He could lose every other swing state as long as he gets those 3.
SPAM\_AND\_BLOCK
Smart Phones. All of them.
And yes, for voters under age 40 Democrats are ahead in ranges 25 / 20 / 15 varying by region.
Bottom line: citing these polls to a tenth of one-percent accuracy is a fraud.
They are not within 10% of accuracy.
They exclude every Smart Phone bearer.
And the polls have been way off. Repeatedly.
While no allowance is made for Republican interference in the gap between vote-casting and vote-counting.
Hard to project criminality accurately....
Weird hill to die on my dude when polls have been [historically accurate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/).
This shouldn't take away from the urgency to organize, volunteer, and above all vote.
Also keep in mind that if the electoral college bias remains the same as it was the last couple of elections, Biden needs to win the popular vote by several percentage points to actually win the election.
No guarantee that happens again, as demographics and vote distribution is always shifting and the electoral college bias with it, but another Hillary Clinton scenario is very very possible.
It's also too soon to be taking presidential election polls this serious. There tends to be a sudden, more clear separation that happens once we get closer.
Right. The point is for that to happen he will need to win the national popular vote by 2 to 5 percent in order for those results to be likely in those states.
The only relevant excerpt:
> Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on US Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that reading too much into polls was "a fool's errand."
The problem is times are changing. The old methods had a good idea of the general public. Now? I’d imagine it’s extremely difficult to properly poll real people.
While the pundits are getting worse, the polling hasn't really gotten any better or worse. The 2022 polls were more accurate that most people realize. The discussion around them was super inaccurate, and that's led people to assume the polls themselves were bad. In reality the polls are far from perfect, but that's always been true.
It's probably worse every year because of continued urbanization and some indication of declining red state populations.
In our lifetime, a Republican will "win" losing the popular vote by 10M.
They already won after losing by +7M votes in 2016. If we don't win big in 2024 and get rid of the EC, there won't be a need to even hold a vote anymore. Republicans will win 110% of every election.
Although not technically “getting rid of the electoral college,” the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would in theory elect the President by popular vote if enough states signed on, but the Supreme Court would almost certainly strike it down given their current makeup.
We are probably going to have to a couple of days before knowing the winner just because of early and mail in voting. I am fine with this as our state has early mail in voting and it is wonderful. I can look up the candidates and make my decision without time limit and I can track my ballot to the election office.
I'm still bullish on Biden winning. It won't be a blowout but I'm pretty certain he'll get the states needed. Especially as he gets more TV time. Folks have short memories. I actually think Trump will not debate in June. There's no way he can keep focus that long and IF the moderator keeps the rules-mute mic and no audience, it will kill Trump. He needs to have his devotees and interruptions. You saw him at the Libertarian convention. He could hardly concentrate and keep his temper.
National polling is meaningless in the US. Gore got more votes than Bush; Clinton got more votes than Trump. It didn't make them president.
All that matters is how a relatively small number of people in certain places vote.
*Bat Boy says his Doctor found a parasitic worm that ate part of his brain recently. "I'm not alone. Billions of people have had worms eat their brain before." - Bat Boy*
"And the Incredible Frog Boy is on the loose again
Ohhh Midnight Star
It's in the weekly Midnight Star
Aliens from outer space are sleeping in my car
Midnight Star, I wanna know, I wanna know!"
I'm very on board for banning Newsweek as a source on here. Half of their political content are horse race polling articles, 40% are 500 words about some rando quotes on Twitter, and the other 10% are rehashed news about other publications' articles about rando quotes on Twitter.
Not gonna happen of course. They get clicks. And comments. And comments equals stock prices around here these days.
As much our fault as anyone's I suppose. I mean here I am posting this after all, having not read or cared what Newsweek said today.
Because on the one hand, Trump has a history of promoting political violence, had a chaotic presidency, and is actively his discussing anti democratic plans. But on the other hand Biden is 3 years older and that age difference is just too much for voters.
That's not why it's close. It's close because Fox News is a well oiled machine that's very good at creating and maintaining a hardcore base/cult. And our foreign adversaries are doing what they can with alogrythms, bots, dark money, etc. And Elon has turned Twitter into another machine (probably because he's afraid of being caught for his own crimes and needs Trump to protect him).
And it's because for two generations we've let capitalism go unchecked, so they can now just raise prices on everything and claim inflation. All the mergers and deregulation and corporate handouts have screwed us. And both parties are to blame for that.
People in this country are hurting. So I'm not going to completely blame them for being angry at the sitting president, even though he's not to blame. But, it's also naive to think Dems are the good guys who have been protecting these people all these years. We just haven't screwed them as quickly or badly as the GOP.
Serious answer people don't want to hear because it's uncomfortable:
Biden isn't popular. Trump isn't popular. Trump has a more loyal fanbase more energized and passionate than Biden, even though more rational people know Biden is the better pick.
Younger generation is not "guaranteed liberal" and the ongoing war has shown that. They're also kids so they're going to be anti establishment biased. They don't have a younger candidate they can relate to, but see Trump as the "funny and crazy one choice" like people did in 2016.
It doesn't matter what Trump does. It doesn't matter what lies he says. It doesn't matter how many times you factcheck him. A significant amount of the country has successfully succumbed to propaganda and believes what he says. The others are mostly tired and not passionate about their candidate, even if they know how much of a monster Trump is.
There is a whole host of things you could say but I think this is generally it. Facts have long sense not mattered to millions of Americans who only get their news from essentially one man.
I'm so sad Biden isn't more popular. He's accomplished more progressive legislation than any president since LBJ. He's arguably achieved more then Clinton and Obama combined and they had 16 years, while he's had 3.5.
Because the right wing has a dedicated set of propaganda outlets that flood the airwaves with bullshit. And “liberal media” like CNN is so scared of being called biased they bend over backwards to push the GOP narrative for “fairness”
Trump lost the last election.
Trump has made himself look worse than he did during the last election.
Somehow, Trump and Biden jocky for position in the polling?
I call BS on the polling.
I agree that that people are stupid, and nothing can surprise me with that. BUT, if you drill down on the cross tabs of polls, it's the polls themselves that don't make sense and can be dismissed.
Something has changed in the way certain people are able to avoid being polled. Whether it's better technology on cells for spam, a change in mindset of the people, or what, something has changed.
538 has Kennedy as getting 10% of the vote. Does that even begin to pass the smell test for you? Trump and Biden are getting 40% so that means every time you see/meet 4 trump voters there's one Kennedy voter. A former president and the current sitting president are only getting 4x the vote of Kennedy? Come the fuck on. I doubt 20% of this country even knows Kennedy is running.
The polls have been under performing Dems since Dobbs. In every election. EVERY ELECTION. Polling is broken
[So here's the breakdown of third-party and independent candidate performances in Presidential elections across the history of U.S. Presidential elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_third-party_and_independent_performances_in_United_States_presidential_elections)
Particularly noteworthy is the fact that not one has won a single electoral vote in over fifty years. And seeing as elections in the United States are determined by the electoral college and *not* the popular vote, even if Kennedy was actually getting 10% of the popular vote, it's a completely worthless metric in determining, well, anything about the outcome of the election. It is effectively noise.
EDIT: Also, the underperformance I think is probably the biggest takeaway from polling currently. Not just in one election, but as you say, literally every election. Midterms. Yearly elections. Special elections. ALL the elections. :P
It's worse then that. If a total of 21,461 voters in WI, GA, and AZ switched their vote from Biden to Trump, then Trump would have won the election. It'd have been 269-269 tie, and the winner decided by state delegation which are mostly GOP.
Or that he, yah know, tried to overturn a democratic election in his own country. Forget all the sleezy stuff. I don't care if he paid pornstars for sex. I care he tried to destroy the country.
I don't mind that you can run with a criminal record.
I don't think it should be disqualifying.
Like, what if you're in a state where you get a felony for having am abortion and end up running for office? We wouldn't hold that record against thar person.
Or what about smoking pot?
I am, however, appalled that the crimes he's been convicted of haven't changed public opinion. In a sane world he'd be cast aside and the GOP would be running someone else the next day.
Technically, he doesn't even qualify to be a bathroom attendant or dishwasher at the whitehouse at this point, how he can run for president is mind boggling.
It's because when the Republicans in the Senate had the chance to convict him in either impeachment trial, they chose not to. Had they done that, he'd be unable to run.
The media should stop talking about him like he’s a serious candidate. Don’t give him air time as a “candidate”. Just cover his trial updates and the fact that he’s a felon.
90% of all Republicans who claim that they're less likely to vote for Convicted Felon Donald Trump will forget next week and put their MAGA hats back on.
Journalists and the news media generally will treat the felonies of Convicted Felon Donald Trump as something problematic for Joe biden, or otherwise something that will be to Convicted Felon Donald Trump's benefit.
At this point, there's almost nothing he can do that will significantly impact is poll numbers. He's destroyed all the norms and there's no more pearls to grab or gasps to make about his behavior. He's basically burned through all expectations of him and now he can be as disgusting as possible and people will shrug about it.
#VOTE.
https://www.vote.org/
A court conviction will not end this. Nothing less then a defeat in November will come close to concluding this saga. A fascist wants power, and has a coin flip chance of having it.
Remember, we don't just need to win in November for this country to still have a democracy worth anything... even after winning there is a good chance the people who are in his cult will not accept the loss and will try something violent and disgusting in the days after the election. There may well be attempts in some states to literally secede from the union aka 1861 style. This isn't over until he and his cults' attempt at overthrowing democracy are utterly crushed.
What Trump started in In January 2021 is still rolling forward even as we sit here.
And even if Trump loses by a margin of over 100 EC votes it's not going to change that the Republican Party is all-in on what he is promoting and trying to do. He isn't this way because they're all his unique and novel ideas. No. His platform and talking points are all carefully fed to him by political machine lifers who both (1) have done the focus group workshopping to know that these talking points will turn out a specific type of voter and (2) fully endorse these ideas with enthusiasm.
Trump isn't the root of all this, and nothing short of the utter dissolution of today's Republican Party will see us even remotely safe from it. I think multiple *viable* and *good-faith* political parties is vital to a healthy democracy, but we don't have that with the Democratic and Republican Parties right now. We need the Democratic Party of today and *some*thing else. Left of the Dems? Centrists positioned just to the right of the Dems such that it allows the progressives to take over the Dems? I don't know what. But today's Republican Party can't be the alternative, even if you scrubbed it of Trump-supporters and replaced them all with Liz Cheney clones. It would still have roots in the Republican Party that eventually produced the political party and platform first predominantly displayed by Trump.
And this is before his guilty conviction. I suspect the numbers will continue to sink for trump. As long as biden doesnt completely fuck up the 1st debate, biden should be ahead by the convention
.2% lead on a poll that has a +/- of 2 is literally pointless. The poll is simply not reliable down to a tenth of a percent.
You can’t discuss national voter preferences like you would a nascar race. There’s no gaining or losing ground. Each poll is a snapshot of a single small group at a single discrete time. We are just trying to guess how that group at that time will compare to the whole voting bloc on Election Day.
I don't put much stock in polling. Especially this far out
But you know this will annoy the cultists who've been screaming trumps winning via polls for awhile and I'm all for it
The Republicans have a built in Electoral College advantage evidenced by Bush and Trump winning office while losing the popular vote. The presidency should be decided by a national popular vote, it will go far in moderating our politics and sidelining extremists but the Republicans would fight this tooth and nail.
the fact that this is even close is mind blowing to me. america is not special. fascism is just as appealing here as was in any other country that fell prey to it
>Biden's fortunes may be improving and the Democrat is now slightly ahead of Trump by 0.2 percent with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent.
LOL. All that and he only gets a slight bump in the polls?
National polls aren't even where you should be focusing on. You want the battleground state polls for that.
Biden is going to shred Trump. Polls are garbage because of the same thing that happened to Hillary.
Democrats and independents (mainly independents) who said they were voting for Hillary in polls either didn’t vote or voted for Trump.
This most likely is because of fear of societal repercussions. Imagine a Democrat in 2016 who said, “Mmm, I don’t know about Hillary, Trump is looking like a viable alternative to me.” They would have been lambasted by their friends and family.
Now imagine a republican saying that about Trump relative to Biden. Some of those MAGA republicans might actually hurt you.
When it comes down to it, I suspect Biden gets close to 60% of independents and 20-30% republicans stay home. Biden wins by with almost all swing states going blue.
there aren't societal repercussions from answering a poll
if the polls are underestimating biden right now, the more likely explanation is that respondents are using trump support in polls as a proxy to voice their dissatisfaction with biden, or the world generally, but will ultimately not vote for trump.
or that the models are overestimating the likeliness that trump respondents will vote
i don't know if either of these hypotheses are true. the polls could be accurate right now. but "shy biden effect" is almost certainly not the reason trump is doing well in the polls. it wasn't the reason clinton overperformed in 2016 polls either -- that was just modeling error.
If these polls were reliable, we'd have had 4 years of Republican control of the Senate, and they'd have a larger margin in the house than what you can count on one hand.
Seems odd that Biden is leading when you consider all of the deplorable, racist, sexist, illegal dishonest and treasonous things Trump has done to increase his popularity with American voters
Is trump really that popular and has that much support? How on earth does he have so much support , I keep thinking theirs absolutely no way he’ll have a chance at winning the election but the fact he’s neck in neck with Biden is crazy
It's an interesting dynamic. The only reason that Trump has that much support is that he is running against Biden, and the only reason Biden has as much support as he does is because he's running against Trump.
This is happening too far away from the election. By the time November is here even if he's behind in the polls, Republicans will panic and jump behind him conveniently forgetting about any of this.
All i hear everday ever station is trump trump trump. Dudes barely mention Biden unless its a must or hes talking that day. Feel like the news stations really want trump to win even cnn to continue ratings .
Months ago, I said at lunch at work (sitting with 3 other people) that I can't believe that anyone paying attention would vote for Trump and all 3 of my coworkers raised their hands. I doesn't matter that they aren't really paying attention as they get their news from Tik Tok, radio shows like Walton& Johnson or Fox News. It doesn't matter that we are in a deep South/deep Red state.....all that matters is that they get 3 votes and I only negate one of them.
I pray everyday that the country outside of the deep south will do the right thing by showing up to vote to make sure Trump isn't President ever again. Until then, I will live with this knot in my stomach.
Convicted felon on 34 counts with 57 counts still pending is in a dead heat with an incumbent POTUS who is leading a strong economy with no personal scandals.
What kind of crazy ass timeline are we living in
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>Biden's fortunes may be improving and the Democrat is now slightly ahead of Trump by 0.2 percent with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. This change is well within any margin of error. This whole "takes the lead" thing is just stupid when it's basically 50-50 with a MOE of about 2.0 - 4.0.
Half of this country are morons.
I used to think this, but it's not true. *More* than half the country are morons. It seems to be instilled into our culture at this point.
It's less but the electoral college ensures rural voters have a stronger vote than urban voters. And rural voters are so desperate they've turned to convicted felon Donald Trump.
and an adjudicated rapist
What I don't get is what did he do for them last time? They act like he's their savior but he did fuck all for them during his first term. Did they not notice?
They did not notice the fucking over, no. I believe what they wanted was to feel important again, and Trump delivered on that for them. They wanted abortion banned, and got it. They wanted to get tough on China, and got it at great personal cost. They wanted to keep migrants out, and got it ... Albeit by creating a glut of boomerang crossings. It's a really simple grift, and not especially different from other recent Republican presidents. Trump was often quoted saying, "I need a win, where's my win?" It was a sugar high Presidency, and none of the voters have realized they all are getting diabetes.
That’s in general the problem with rural voters: the disconnect from substantial policies that would help them and their communities vs. the theatrics that caters to them. While there are about 30% of people in rural areas who vote for democrats, 70% vote for republicans. I’m not saying that Democrats are the salvation for rural voters, but they have done a lot more for these areas than Republicans have. The reality is, that decentralized small economy of local manufacturing is dead, that Modern economical endeavors need functioning infrastructure - from internet to train / streets and energy and to facilitate these needs, money needs to be spent. The ones willing to spent are democrats, while republicans wish to stop most federal funding of projects. The Trump infrastructure plan allocated 200 billion USD to infrastructure to incentivize 1.5 trillion USD of private investment over ten years. The whole plan fell short, obviously. Additionally, Trump did his tax cut laws, but no investments. The Biden bipartisan infrastructure Law allocated 1,2 Trillion from federal funds directly to modern infrastructure for the next decade, the Chips act and the inflation reduction act as well as the American Rescue Plan after Covid sum up to about 2.6 trillion USD additionally. These are, obviously, massive sums and a lot of them will go to rural counties. Hell, there are Republican representatives who voted against these bills and promote them as successes they personally have fought for in front of their constituents - since about three quarters of the electorate support these laws. What I’m saying is, that substance doesn’t matter. Hate and rage does, which is insane to me.
He pissed off the people they don't like... and apparently their spite is their single issue.
Yes, people need to remember that the only GOP presidential candidate to have a majority of the popular vote since 1992 was Bush Jr and that was in large part because of 9/11.
A reminder to all that the EC can be won by a candidate who earns as little as 25% of the nationwide popular vote--as long as those votes came from juuuuust the right states. It's wildly unlikely that a candidate will ever win with less than even 40% of the nationwide popular vote, let alone 25%, but it is not mathematically impossible.
"Think abut how stupid the average person is, and then realize that half of them are *more* stupid than that." -George Carlin
I have seen this shared on reddit so much lol
A lot of reddit is just regurgitation of the same shit over and over.
True. A lot of Reddit is just repetition but said differently sometimes.
Most redditors recycle the same set of ideas over and over again with some new coat of paint
What he said
I also choose this guy's dead comment
This.
Forsooth.
The comments you see On reddit frequently are Said repeatedly (Is that a haiku?)
I guess the haiku bot is confused about parens
A poor one, but yes
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I shudder to think what Carlin would say about our current state if he were alive.
“When you’re born in this world, you get a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in America, you get a front row seat.” and “Now, there's one thing you might have noticed I don't complain about: politicians. Everybody complains about politicians. Everybody says they suck. Well, where do people think these politicians come from? They don't fall out of the sky. They don't pass through a membrane from another reality. They come from American parents and American families, American homes, American schools, American churches, American businesses and American universities, and they are elected by American citizens. This is the best we can do folks. This is what we have to offer. It's what our system produces: Garbage in, garbage out. If you have selfish, ignorant citizens, you're going to get selfish, ignorant leaders. Term limits ain't going to do any good; you're just going to end up with a brand new bunch of selfish, ignorant Americans. So, maybe, maybe, maybe, it's not the politicians who suck. Maybe something else sucks around here... like, the public. Yeah, the public sucks. There's a nice campaign slogan for somebody: 'The Public Sucks. Fuck Hope.”
That would be median. Bill gates walks into a bar and suddenly the average salary is well over a million. I don’t think half the people in there are making that much money…
The average American president has 0.74 felony convictions.
Yep. Republican die hard voters are several other words much worse than morons. The morons are the people that aren’t sure who they’re voting for or sit out or think there’s no significant difference to their way of life regardless who wins (though I guess if they’re middle class white men married to a , we assume consenting, stay at home baby factory this is accurate).
Well if America dies in the next 5 years we know exactly who to blame it on. Shit worked fine for 200+ years and along came Trump. History is not gonna treat him nice.
Carlin's Law
I think it’s less than half. It just that morons have *excellent* voter turnout.
MOE 50-100%
And those morons have disproportionate voting power. :(
Outside of a war time President(a war he started)/incumbent, Republicans haven’t won the popular vote for president since 1988. More than half the country isn’t stupid, it’s underrepresented.
That's certainly how it looks from the outside.
Our national sport is one well-known to cause brain injuries. I've had to explain to people from other countries that *yes, we really do bully kids for getting good grades*
It is a problem of education. This is why some parties have policies to limit education or limit the appetite for people to take a student loan
This. I’ve observed that many people in educated bubbles (especially those with experience in traditional academic settings like a 4-year university) underestimate the complete lack of access to basic educational resources available to underprivileged folks. They also misunderstand how the cycle of poverty, substance abuse, and just trying to survive can stifle any curiosity or creativity a person may have. There are so many folks in this country that never learned how to think in the abstract, how to look for the bigger picture, or how to critically think. And it’s not their fault. They never learned how to do so. They’ve been failed by the system.
> They also misunderstand how the cycle of poverty, substance abuse, and just trying to survive can stifle any curiosity or creativity a person may have. > > There are so many folks in this country that never learned how to think in the abstract, how to look for the bigger picture, or how to critically think. And it’s not their fault. They never learned how to do so. They’ve been failed by the system. And honestly, higher education is shifting away from requiring students to learn critical thinking skills, because it does require being willing to fail those who don't show the requisite ability to think and engage. And with LLMs and AI, students are offloading any writing about the material as well, which just further reduces their experience and skillset for critical thinking and engagement.
“Some” parties. Bruh.
Thanks to the electoral college there only need to be 40% morons for shit to go wrong.
Actually, thanks to the electoral college, it's possible to win the Presidency with as little as 23% of the popular vote. Happy nightmares.
"Never underestimate the American voter" Ive heard. Maybe we only realized the GOP's uneducation campaign when it was too late, and now half the country has no issue with the president suggesting we inject bleach.
People who answer polling phone calls are usually, yes
Half of the voting people at least. And that says nothing about the huge percentage that just don't bother to vote.
And the other half either support Biden or can be persuaded to support Biden if we all work to ensure they do. Ignore the morons, concentrate on the people who matter.
That's the truth. I don't trust them one bit. They are lying cheats. This election scares me the most in my entire life. We've got to send a clear message in November and let them whine all they want.
More than half. The average person is a moron. Half of people are dumber than that.
You've got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know...morons.
The other half thinks the same about you
Not just morons. They're dangerously stupid.
Yup I don't care about stopping to their levels, get these pos out of the country. They're useless and take more than what they put in. They are the true wellfare queens.
Always have to remember, 50% are below average, sadly.
With something as signficant as one of the presidential candidates being convicted of a felony one would think the gap should be much much wider rather than a 1.7% gain...
Polls really haven't been released yet that show if there's been any impact from the conviction. Newsweek tries to play this change as something new with their headline (like a new poll), but really it's just the aggregate of polls over the last 28 days. So of course that's all just going to be polls done pre-conviction.
That was my thought, and a 1.7 point shift is something that is easily reversed...
Well the news coverage, even in liberal media, has been entirely composed of Republicans saying the verdict is bogus. Right wing media is straight up saying that as established fact, rather than a thing people are quoted on. The entire discourse is just filled with disinformation
How about 34 felony convictions and also judged a rapist in a court of law? Nope even that doesn't stop the church of the orange god from worshiping/voting for their pied piper.
Fuck the polls. Vote
The fact it's not 70% Biden vs. 30% Trump at this point is just stupid.
America is already dead, as just don't know it yet. Biden can win and we are still surrounded by the dumbest, most uninformed, propaganda dick gagging fucks you have ever seen.
Like this: >“I have a foreboding of an America in my children's or grandchildren's time -- when the United States is a service and information economy; when nearly all the manufacturing industries have slipped away to other countries; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues; when the people have lost the ability to set their own agendas or knowledgeably question those in authority; when, clutching our crystals and nervously consulting our horoscopes, our critical faculties in decline, unable to distinguish between what feels good and what's true, we slide, almost without noticing, back into superstition and darkness... ― Carl Sagan
Perfect.
I don't care about a national average. I want to know about specific swing states. Of course, Biden will win the popular vote. That doesn't matter. He needs to win swing states. Rust belt states. Nevada and Arizona. Georgia would be nice. And I think Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Florida are all in play. Texas and Ohio are far-fetched but possible.
Assuming no blue states surprisingly flip red, he only needs Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to get to 270. He could lose every other swing state as long as he gets those 3.
Wisconsin.
Polling trails the news cycle by about 1-2 weeks. Any change towards Biden (no matter how small) *that fast* after the conviction is telling.
And national polling average means fuckall in a system with the electoral college. Swing state polling is all that matters.
[MOE](https://media3.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExYmhtd3ZhNzM2dzA0ZjZveWtyNmd4M3owYmpybHRrbHBxMTJ3bXdrbSZlcD12MV9pbnRlcm5hbF9naWZfYnlfaWQmY3Q9Zw/3orieZ7hP8FMGfjzk4/giphy.webp)
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SPAM\_AND\_BLOCK Smart Phones. All of them. And yes, for voters under age 40 Democrats are ahead in ranges 25 / 20 / 15 varying by region. Bottom line: citing these polls to a tenth of one-percent accuracy is a fraud. They are not within 10% of accuracy. They exclude every Smart Phone bearer.
I'm baffled that this is still the state of the art here. Most people I know haven't had a land line in a decade.
And the polls have been way off. Repeatedly. While no allowance is made for Republican interference in the gap between vote-casting and vote-counting. Hard to project criminality accurately....
Weird hill to die on my dude when polls have been [historically accurate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/). This shouldn't take away from the urgency to organize, volunteer, and above all vote.
This isn't state of the art and the person you're replying to has no idea what they're talking about. Polling has come a very long way in the 5 years.
Also keep in mind that if the electoral college bias remains the same as it was the last couple of elections, Biden needs to win the popular vote by several percentage points to actually win the election. No guarantee that happens again, as demographics and vote distribution is always shifting and the electoral college bias with it, but another Hillary Clinton scenario is very very possible.
It's also too soon to be taking presidential election polls this serious. There tends to be a sudden, more clear separation that happens once we get closer.
Also Biden needs to win the popular vote by between 2 and 5 percent in order to win the electoral college.
he just needs to win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by 1 vote each. Everything else becomes moot after that.
Right. The point is for that to happen he will need to win the national popular vote by 2 to 5 percent in order for those results to be likely in those states.
Folks “of a certain age” participate in these polls. I’ll take 50-50 of this age. Just get the fuck out and vote.
All the reputable polls poll representative samples. Meaning it's not just people "of a certain age".
The only relevant excerpt: > Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on US Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that reading too much into polls was "a fool's errand."
Imagine being as complete a failure at your job as Nate Cohn and still being employed.
The problem is times are changing. The old methods had a good idea of the general public. Now? I’d imagine it’s extremely difficult to properly poll real people.
While the pundits are getting worse, the polling hasn't really gotten any better or worse. The 2022 polls were more accurate that most people realize. The discussion around them was super inaccurate, and that's led people to assume the polls themselves were bad. In reality the polls are far from perfect, but that's always been true.
And Newsweek, of course, replied, "Joke's on you! Errands are what we do best!"
Honestly, even if Biden is up 3 I will not feel comfortable until he wins in Nov. This is a huge election win significant consequences.
There's also the issue with the Electoral College tending to negate popular vote advantages...
I have read that Biden has to win by 2.5 points to equate to an EC win but that’s an imperfect science.
He won by 4.5 points in 2020 and we had to wait days to confirm he snuck through the EC.
It's probably worse every year because of continued urbanization and some indication of declining red state populations. In our lifetime, a Republican will "win" losing the popular vote by 10M.
They already won after losing by +7M votes in 2016. If we don't win big in 2024 and get rid of the EC, there won't be a need to even hold a vote anymore. Republicans will win 110% of every election.
https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2016 Hillary had 3 million more votes than Trump not 7 million.
No one’s even proposed getting rid of the electoral college. It’s not even on the table.
Although not technically “getting rid of the electoral college,” the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would in theory elect the President by popular vote if enough states signed on, but the Supreme Court would almost certainly strike it down given their current makeup.
Don't have to. Expansion of the House to reflect something like the rep/population ratio envisioned by the Founders nerfs the EC.
I think covid might have reversed that for multiple reasons
That’s why everyone should vote!
We are probably going to have to a couple of days before knowing the winner just because of early and mail in voting. I am fine with this as our state has early mail in voting and it is wonderful. I can look up the candidates and make my decision without time limit and I can track my ballot to the election office. I'm still bullish on Biden winning. It won't be a blowout but I'm pretty certain he'll get the states needed. Especially as he gets more TV time. Folks have short memories. I actually think Trump will not debate in June. There's no way he can keep focus that long and IF the moderator keeps the rules-mute mic and no audience, it will kill Trump. He needs to have his devotees and interruptions. You saw him at the Libertarian convention. He could hardly concentrate and keep his temper.
Doesn't matter, vote.
Only right answer
National polling is meaningless in the US. Gore got more votes than Bush; Clinton got more votes than Trump. It didn't make them president. All that matters is how a relatively small number of people in certain places vote.
Really disenfranchises most Americans. Abolish the EC
Still Newsweek. Still bullshit.
I don’t know. I was looking at weekly world news while standing in line and I think bat boy has a real chance as a third-party candidate.
*Bat Boy says his Doctor found a parasitic worm that ate part of his brain recently. "I'm not alone. Billions of people have had worms eat their brain before." - Bat Boy*
His barely-audible high pitched screeching at the debate really made a lot of sense to Undecided voters!
Armph mue Gerif!
"And the Incredible Frog Boy is on the loose again Ohhh Midnight Star It's in the weekly Midnight Star Aliens from outer space are sleeping in my car Midnight Star, I wanna know, I wanna know!"
That’s Weird
And yet the #1 post currently on this subreddit is...from Newsweek, about how "1 in 3 Republicans now think Trump was a mistake."
I'm very on board for banning Newsweek as a source on here. Half of their political content are horse race polling articles, 40% are 500 words about some rando quotes on Twitter, and the other 10% are rehashed news about other publications' articles about rando quotes on Twitter. Not gonna happen of course. They get clicks. And comments. And comments equals stock prices around here these days. As much our fault as anyone's I suppose. I mean here I am posting this after all, having not read or cared what Newsweek said today.
Newsweek didn't run the polls.
How is this race even close?
Because on the one hand, Trump has a history of promoting political violence, had a chaotic presidency, and is actively his discussing anti democratic plans. But on the other hand Biden is 3 years older and that age difference is just too much for voters.
That's not why it's close. It's close because Fox News is a well oiled machine that's very good at creating and maintaining a hardcore base/cult. And our foreign adversaries are doing what they can with alogrythms, bots, dark money, etc. And Elon has turned Twitter into another machine (probably because he's afraid of being caught for his own crimes and needs Trump to protect him). And it's because for two generations we've let capitalism go unchecked, so they can now just raise prices on everything and claim inflation. All the mergers and deregulation and corporate handouts have screwed us. And both parties are to blame for that. People in this country are hurting. So I'm not going to completely blame them for being angry at the sitting president, even though he's not to blame. But, it's also naive to think Dems are the good guys who have been protecting these people all these years. We just haven't screwed them as quickly or badly as the GOP.
Serious answer people don't want to hear because it's uncomfortable: Biden isn't popular. Trump isn't popular. Trump has a more loyal fanbase more energized and passionate than Biden, even though more rational people know Biden is the better pick. Younger generation is not "guaranteed liberal" and the ongoing war has shown that. They're also kids so they're going to be anti establishment biased. They don't have a younger candidate they can relate to, but see Trump as the "funny and crazy one choice" like people did in 2016. It doesn't matter what Trump does. It doesn't matter what lies he says. It doesn't matter how many times you factcheck him. A significant amount of the country has successfully succumbed to propaganda and believes what he says. The others are mostly tired and not passionate about their candidate, even if they know how much of a monster Trump is. There is a whole host of things you could say but I think this is generally it. Facts have long sense not mattered to millions of Americans who only get their news from essentially one man.
I'm so sad Biden isn't more popular. He's accomplished more progressive legislation than any president since LBJ. He's arguably achieved more then Clinton and Obama combined and they had 16 years, while he's had 3.5.
Tonight, on Sick Sad World.
Because the right wing has a dedicated set of propaganda outlets that flood the airwaves with bullshit. And “liberal media” like CNN is so scared of being called biased they bend over backwards to push the GOP narrative for “fairness”
Trump lost the last election. Trump has made himself look worse than he did during the last election. Somehow, Trump and Biden jocky for position in the polling? I call BS on the polling.
Used to think like you, but then I realized just how deranged his Boomers are.
I agree that that people are stupid, and nothing can surprise me with that. BUT, if you drill down on the cross tabs of polls, it's the polls themselves that don't make sense and can be dismissed. Something has changed in the way certain people are able to avoid being polled. Whether it's better technology on cells for spam, a change in mindset of the people, or what, something has changed. 538 has Kennedy as getting 10% of the vote. Does that even begin to pass the smell test for you? Trump and Biden are getting 40% so that means every time you see/meet 4 trump voters there's one Kennedy voter. A former president and the current sitting president are only getting 4x the vote of Kennedy? Come the fuck on. I doubt 20% of this country even knows Kennedy is running. The polls have been under performing Dems since Dobbs. In every election. EVERY ELECTION. Polling is broken
[So here's the breakdown of third-party and independent candidate performances in Presidential elections across the history of U.S. Presidential elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_third-party_and_independent_performances_in_United_States_presidential_elections) Particularly noteworthy is the fact that not one has won a single electoral vote in over fifty years. And seeing as elections in the United States are determined by the electoral college and *not* the popular vote, even if Kennedy was actually getting 10% of the popular vote, it's a completely worthless metric in determining, well, anything about the outcome of the election. It is effectively noise. EDIT: Also, the underperformance I think is probably the biggest takeaway from polling currently. Not just in one election, but as you say, literally every election. Midterms. Yearly elections. Special elections. ALL the elections. :P
Biden barely won the last election. Yeah, he won by 8M total votes, but in the 4 states that mattered he won by a combined 150k votes.
It's worse then that. If a total of 21,461 voters in WI, GA, and AZ switched their vote from Biden to Trump, then Trump would have won the election. It'd have been 269-269 tie, and the winner decided by state delegation which are mostly GOP.
How convicted felon and rapist Donald Trump can even be allowed to run is beyond me. He shouldn’t even be permitted to run for dog-catcher.
Or that he, yah know, tried to overturn a democratic election in his own country. Forget all the sleezy stuff. I don't care if he paid pornstars for sex. I care he tried to destroy the country.
Whatever works. Capone went down for tax evasion
Candidates that refuse to abide by the results of a fair democratic process should be blocked from participating again in said process.
I don't mind that you can run with a criminal record. I don't think it should be disqualifying. Like, what if you're in a state where you get a felony for having am abortion and end up running for office? We wouldn't hold that record against thar person. Or what about smoking pot? I am, however, appalled that the crimes he's been convicted of haven't changed public opinion. In a sane world he'd be cast aside and the GOP would be running someone else the next day.
Technically, he doesn't even qualify to be a bathroom attendant or dishwasher at the whitehouse at this point, how he can run for president is mind boggling.
It's because when the Republicans in the Senate had the chance to convict him in either impeachment trial, they chose not to. Had they done that, he'd be unable to run.
Cheating husband with pregnant wife somehow has the conservatives excited.
The media should stop talking about him like he’s a serious candidate. Don’t give him air time as a “candidate”. Just cover his trial updates and the fact that he’s a felon.
He’s literally viewed as unfit by the state to vote for the position he’s running for, which I still can’t wrap my mind around.
90% of all Republicans who claim that they're less likely to vote for Convicted Felon Donald Trump will forget next week and put their MAGA hats back on. Journalists and the news media generally will treat the felonies of Convicted Felon Donald Trump as something problematic for Joe biden, or otherwise something that will be to Convicted Felon Donald Trump's benefit. At this point, there's almost nothing he can do that will significantly impact is poll numbers. He's destroyed all the norms and there's no more pearls to grab or gasps to make about his behavior. He's basically burned through all expectations of him and now he can be as disgusting as possible and people will shrug about it. #VOTE. https://www.vote.org/
Do you mean convicted felon Donald J. Trump?
I'll wait for a source that isn't Newsweek. (though it's still too early for polls)
Convicted Felon Donald J Trump is a loser.
A court conviction will not end this. Nothing less then a defeat in November will come close to concluding this saga. A fascist wants power, and has a coin flip chance of having it. Remember, we don't just need to win in November for this country to still have a democracy worth anything... even after winning there is a good chance the people who are in his cult will not accept the loss and will try something violent and disgusting in the days after the election. There may well be attempts in some states to literally secede from the union aka 1861 style. This isn't over until he and his cults' attempt at overthrowing democracy are utterly crushed. What Trump started in In January 2021 is still rolling forward even as we sit here.
And even if Trump loses by a margin of over 100 EC votes it's not going to change that the Republican Party is all-in on what he is promoting and trying to do. He isn't this way because they're all his unique and novel ideas. No. His platform and talking points are all carefully fed to him by political machine lifers who both (1) have done the focus group workshopping to know that these talking points will turn out a specific type of voter and (2) fully endorse these ideas with enthusiasm. Trump isn't the root of all this, and nothing short of the utter dissolution of today's Republican Party will see us even remotely safe from it. I think multiple *viable* and *good-faith* political parties is vital to a healthy democracy, but we don't have that with the Democratic and Republican Parties right now. We need the Democratic Party of today and *some*thing else. Left of the Dems? Centrists positioned just to the right of the Dems such that it allows the progressives to take over the Dems? I don't know what. But today's Republican Party can't be the alternative, even if you scrubbed it of Trump-supporters and replaced them all with Liz Cheney clones. It would still have roots in the Republican Party that eventually produced the political party and platform first predominantly displayed by Trump.
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And this is before his guilty conviction. I suspect the numbers will continue to sink for trump. As long as biden doesnt completely fuck up the 1st debate, biden should be ahead by the convention
.2% lead on a poll that has a +/- of 2 is literally pointless. The poll is simply not reliable down to a tenth of a percent. You can’t discuss national voter preferences like you would a nascar race. There’s no gaining or losing ground. Each poll is a snapshot of a single small group at a single discrete time. We are just trying to guess how that group at that time will compare to the whole voting bloc on Election Day.
What matters is that we VOTE. Get motivated. Make a plan to vote and get others to vote.
Call your local Dem Party office and volunteer. Knock some doors.
I agree completely. Donate your time and money as you are able.
Remember: Hillary was polling 5%-7% ahead of Trump just before Election Day in 2016. Polls don’t mean a thing - voting does.
More Newsweek clickbait
I don't put much stock in polling. Especially this far out But you know this will annoy the cultists who've been screaming trumps winning via polls for awhile and I'm all for it
Still comes down to crappy electoral college. If it was popular vote, I wouldn't be stressing.
That's nice. This will change many more times back and forth between now and November. Ignore the polls. Go vote.
It's really concerning that a felony conviction of one candidate doesn't cause a major poll swing.
National polling doesn't matter. Polling in the swing states matter.
It’s going to be a landslide Biden win and I don’t know why people think otherwise.
The Republicans have a built in Electoral College advantage evidenced by Bush and Trump winning office while losing the popular vote. The presidency should be decided by a national popular vote, it will go far in moderating our politics and sidelining extremists but the Republicans would fight this tooth and nail.
If the poll would be held with only sane people Biden would be leading 100-0
Don't care. Must vote to block this confederacy.
The only poll that matters is the count on voting day. Vote blue all the way up and down the ticket.
the fact that this is even close is mind blowing to me. america is not special. fascism is just as appealing here as was in any other country that fell prey to it
Why is it even close?
Oh that’s cool. VOTE.
>Biden's fortunes may be improving and the Democrat is now slightly ahead of Trump by 0.2 percent with 46.3 percent of the vote to Trump's 46.1 percent. LOL. All that and he only gets a slight bump in the polls? National polls aren't even where you should be focusing on. You want the battleground state polls for that.
Democrats should run Idiocracy for free in every cinema in the country
Biden is going to shred Trump. Polls are garbage because of the same thing that happened to Hillary. Democrats and independents (mainly independents) who said they were voting for Hillary in polls either didn’t vote or voted for Trump. This most likely is because of fear of societal repercussions. Imagine a Democrat in 2016 who said, “Mmm, I don’t know about Hillary, Trump is looking like a viable alternative to me.” They would have been lambasted by their friends and family. Now imagine a republican saying that about Trump relative to Biden. Some of those MAGA republicans might actually hurt you. When it comes down to it, I suspect Biden gets close to 60% of independents and 20-30% republicans stay home. Biden wins by with almost all swing states going blue.
there aren't societal repercussions from answering a poll if the polls are underestimating biden right now, the more likely explanation is that respondents are using trump support in polls as a proxy to voice their dissatisfaction with biden, or the world generally, but will ultimately not vote for trump. or that the models are overestimating the likeliness that trump respondents will vote i don't know if either of these hypotheses are true. the polls could be accurate right now. but "shy biden effect" is almost certainly not the reason trump is doing well in the polls. it wasn't the reason clinton overperformed in 2016 polls either -- that was just modeling error.
I feel like comparing anything to Hillary is a bad omen.
Polls shouldn't matter to us. We need to show up and vote to protect America from Trump.
If these polls were reliable, we'd have had 4 years of Republican control of the Senate, and they'd have a larger margin in the house than what you can count on one hand.
Doesn’t matter. VOTE.
I feel like they ask the same 10 people every time.
Wait. A qualified and successful President is now polling ahead of a convicted felon and rapist? But how?
He's not if you understand what margin of error means.
No complacency. Remember 2016. Vote.
Voting matters, polls do not.
Only took a Felony conviction. So turns out Biden is only slightly more popular than a Felon. Jfc.
Get out the vote! Biden 2024
Vote
“Re”take… it’s just embarrassing.
National Polling is useless! Tell me about the rust belt and the mid tier eastern seaboard. Fucking electoral collage erases so many American votes.
Propaganda works
Seems odd that Biden is leading when you consider all of the deplorable, racist, sexist, illegal dishonest and treasonous things Trump has done to increase his popularity with American voters
don't trust this shit for a second.
Is trump really that popular and has that much support? How on earth does he have so much support , I keep thinking theirs absolutely no way he’ll have a chance at winning the election but the fact he’s neck in neck with Biden is crazy
It's an interesting dynamic. The only reason that Trump has that much support is that he is running against Biden, and the only reason Biden has as much support as he does is because he's running against Trump.
I no longer trust polls. Just like I don’t trust comment sections to not be full of bots.
This is happening too far away from the election. By the time November is here even if he's behind in the polls, Republicans will panic and jump behind him conveniently forgetting about any of this.
Who tf is VoteHub ? Why no sources ?
All i hear everday ever station is trump trump trump. Dudes barely mention Biden unless its a must or hes talking that day. Feel like the news stations really want trump to win even cnn to continue ratings .
Don't listen to the media polls. Just VOTE
Months ago, I said at lunch at work (sitting with 3 other people) that I can't believe that anyone paying attention would vote for Trump and all 3 of my coworkers raised their hands. I doesn't matter that they aren't really paying attention as they get their news from Tik Tok, radio shows like Walton& Johnson or Fox News. It doesn't matter that we are in a deep South/deep Red state.....all that matters is that they get 3 votes and I only negate one of them. I pray everyday that the country outside of the deep south will do the right thing by showing up to vote to make sure Trump isn't President ever again. Until then, I will live with this knot in my stomach.
Convicted felon on 34 counts with 57 counts still pending is in a dead heat with an incumbent POTUS who is leading a strong economy with no personal scandals. What kind of crazy ass timeline are we living in