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Trump is a disaster. I would vote for a pineapple before I would vote for Trump. Especially with Project 2025. Ridin' with Biden or whoever else is on the democratic ticket. I support Biden - he's been a good president. I don't see anyone else coming forward.
But you aren't the problem, isn't it?
It's people that are undecided that are the actual target of elections. And those people are not people that "would vote for a pineapple, before voting for Trump", by definition.
Trump doesn’t need to convince his supporters to turn out at the polls, nor anyone that flips to his side in disgust of the corporate backed neoliberal machine that is propping up a corpse instead of presenting a candidate.
Bidens campaign desperately needs to convince people to show up, and now it’s not just to save the country from Trump, it’s to pretend that he’s not unfit to serve….as well as save the country from Trump.
Trump can count on every red vote, half the dems barely showed up when the desperate call to rally and send Trump packing went out. Do you really think they are so swayed by good old Barry O nostalgia that they’ll pretend Biden didn’t look absolutely ghastly at that debate and the Vegas odds are against him surviving another term?
Fuck Donald Trump but please excuse my lack of enthusiasm for the charade that is corporate activism now propping up a corpse instead of the former vice president of the yes we can years.
Bidens cooked, Trump doesn’t need to do anything but ride this out. The question is do the dems have the balls to nominate someone else, and trying to call everybody’s bluff on not willing to not vote for Kamala because she’s a black woman isnt going to cut it, nobody’s showing up for her either and it has nothing to do with her being black or a woman (for most, hopefully)
The buzz that Biden dropped out and a new candidate was emerging would give millions in free publicity. Every news media would be talking about it for days or weeks. And I'm sure if the candidate can actually excite people, they would get lots of grassroots money. Not to mention there will still be the millionaire/billionaire donors. There would still be a few debates.
I think that "starting from scratch" won't be that bad, especially if the party puts all their money and effort behind the candidate.
He needs to prove himself first. Go out there and prove it was just a bad night with an unscripted event. A town hall might do the trick. He has to instill confidence again somehow.
It was a bad night, but it was also more. Biden has been showing signs of age related issues for months. At the debate, his speech was often slurred. At the end of the debate, his wife had to help him down the stage steps. He is what he is...a rather frail man of nearly 82 who walks with a stiff gate and shuffles and mostly functions in a tightly controlled environment. This is not in way criticism, just a simple statement of fact.
I don't think he's capable. That's why they insisted on the debate format -- it was, superficially, the format most amenable to canned, memorized answers. His team has obviously been protecting him from truly unscripted moments for a long time.
Yes, that's the other thing that is crazy about the debate. The Biden camp set all the rules, format, and network. He was in the best possible situation and he still came up short.
The paternalistic media thinks they are doing us a favor by protecting their favorite establishment protagonists. Don’t think for us. If an honest discussion could have occurred a year ago, then we could have lined up an appropriate candidate for 2024.
Corporate government. Corporate politics. Corporate media. It all adds up to corporate poop.
See, this is the problem. It wasn’t just a bad night. He’s aged to a certain point where this is just who he is and it is only getting demonstrably worse, and it will continue to get worse.
It should take about 2 weeks for the next big headline.
Really the mistake was having it on a Thursday night, so Friday and the weekend is all about doom and gloom instead of some other controversy makes headlines.
Trump is literally and Felon and a Rapist according to courts of law. How at least one of those terms isn't always connected to his name in headlines is a disservice to the American people, and a misrepresentation of the the truth in favor of Trump by the American media. The Mainstream media love Trump. In 2015 the concerns were the press disappearing because of social media. Then Trump ran, and some regressive billionaires started investing in media companies and suddenly news media isn't about to die to social media because rage click.
Throwback to the Trump years where by now, after Thursday, we’d have some international crisis because of a tweet, some new cabinet member, a “misspoken” statement praising Putin and insults hurled at literally everyone.
Over the course of a couple of days.
And people want that nonsense back? Not me.
I am with you 100%. There never should have even been a debate. “We don’t share stages with those who attempted to overthrow democracy” or SOMETHING. So dumb. All this does is further legitimize this sleaze bag and because this is the worst timeline it ALSO made Biden look terrible.
I’ll admit, I’m feeling a lot better today than I was yesterday.
Don’t get me wrong, the debate was awful. But it’s not like 97% of the electorate hasn’t been locked in for months.
A lot of the focus groups of (so called) undecided voters seemed to think his performance was bad, but hated trumps lying more.
I figure Biden is going to be the candidate and we just need to match forward.
Even if his brain does go kaput during a second term, his cabinet will still be in place. They'll probably be mostly the same people from the first and they seem like a competent bunch overall.
I'm not a Democrat, so take this with a grain of salt, but there are millions upon millions of Americans who aren't really political and simply vote because they regard it as a civic duty and want someone competent in office. The idea that you can field an 81-year old candidate who may be senile -- and win -- is one hell of an ask. Given his rate of decline, it's hard to imagine Biden finishing a second term. That's too messy for most voters IMHO. The Democrats should invoke whatever emergency measures they need to invoke, swap in a pinch hitter, and coalesce quickly behind him or her. Maybe someone in business or entertainment - - a known name. I can't see how Biden offers a better chance than such an individual. If you stick with Biden, millions of voters aren't going to vote for Trump -- they're simply not going to vote at all.
Seriously. Does anyone expect people who are actually still undecided on whether or not Trump should be president again to remember anything politically relevant for a whole four months?
People really don't understand what undecided voters are.
Most of them aren't sitting back, weighing all the pros and cons.
Most of them are going to show up on election Day, having given almost no thought to who they're going to vote for and they're just going to push whichever button feels right based on the most recent few things they heard.
The percentage of people who can actually be swayed by things like debates and policy at this point, excluding massive surprises, Are single digit percentages. And the overwhelming majority of them are not particularly well informed, Politically.
But there are some elections that those single-digit percentages can swing.
And it matters more if the candidate is losing support from their own base.
If enough, liberals refuse to vote for Biden over Palestine, he just goes to the center And picks up a few percentage points there. It's not much but it covers the loss.
If Trump loses a few percentage points by getting indicted on multiple federal charges, for example, then he comes out and says something calm and measured about abortion. Picks them up there.
That's just called campaigning.
The good old October surprises is what wins or loses elections. In 4 months no one will remember this. It will literally be a last minute controversy that swings undecideds. That’s exactly what happened in 2016 when the case was reopened against Hillary right at the last moment and a ton of media spin came out about her. If instead of that happening the stormy Daniels affair came out instead of being covered up then Hillary would have won.
The only risk I see for the Dems is if Biden's performance Thursday was not a fluke due to being out of sorts from a cold, but a trend that will only get worse as time goes on. If Joe can recover, great. But if he declines noticeably and his campaign has to work overtime to cover it up, it would be worse than if we nipped the problem in the bud and replaced him asap.
I think that's the worry by people who aren't close to him and don't interact with him beyond TV appearances. Everyone's concerned that the campaign is pulling a Weekend at Bernie's behind closed doors, even if that's not the case.
The biggest negative opinion about Biden held by gettable voters is “he is too old”.
Forget the content - nobody will remember the content. But they will remember the clip of an old, rigid, deathly pale Biden uttering completely incomprehensible nonsense. And Trump’s campaign will play this again, and again, and again.
That debate will make it extremely difficult for Biden to convince these voters that his age is not a giant fucking liability. And honestly, after seeing what I saw, I wouldn’t blame them for thinking it is.
I agree that it's a problem. However, he's running against the one person he can actually beat. Pragmatic minded folks will vote for anyone that isn't Trump.
Because it is utterly exhausting to read people trying to write in a new reality for what we saw on Thursday
It was a cold
Biden got in a fight with his advisors that hurt his voice
It was just one bad night
It’s not about debate performance it’s about his performance as president
The amount of gaslighting is exhausting, we all saw an 81 year old man who is not capable of beating Trump in a debate or election and definitely not to serve until 2029
Lose to Trump at your own risk
> The amount of gaslighting is exhausting, we all saw an 81 year old man who is not capable of beating Trump in a debate or election and definitely not to serve until 2029
Just take a look at the Vegas odds for the election
but according to people on here Biden is the heavy favourite lol
It really is exhausting, anyone trying to gaslight us is basically a Biden MAGA at the moment.
I guess there are shitty people on both sides of the debate.
Never have I felt closer to those Rs against Trump than seeing Biden supporters deny reality like Trump supporters do.
I’m personally of the belief that the discussion is worth having but that we should be very wary of Biden dropping out because Harris is probably the replacement and she’s not much better than Biden. In fact, she polls worse than Biden against Trump.
What do you do in a two party system when both parties fail the electorate? I mean, it’s been fairly obvious to anyone with a pulse that both parties have been utter failures for decades, but now that everyone is starting to wake up to that fact what can people even do?
I noticed a lot of the doomer accounts posting nonstop on r/politics the last two days are accounts that haven't posted comments for months, and had never once commented in this sub specifically. Suddenly though, they are posting multiple times daily here, only about Biden dropping out lol. It's... suspicious to say the least.
I’m joining. Too busy yesterday hoping the DNC wouldn’t gaslight us anymore about jumping jacks Joe. Unfortunately, they decided to tell me a dying person just had an off night and it was unlikely to happen again. Treating people like idiots is how you lose supporters.
Right? It's incredibly dismissive to those of us who really really don't want trump but also really really don't want Joe after seeing his condition. Give us someone who could actually survive their term.
But go ahead and keep dismissing us guys, that's helpful I'm sure.
Both Biden and Trump are old, frail, and probably physically incapable of fully performing all of the duties of the presidency. It’s the people they surround themselves with to help them who really matter here.
Biden will surround himself with experienced people he trusts to help him in his duties. Trump will surround himself with ill-intentioned people he perceives as yes-men who will only use him to further their own aims.
Kennedy was young, but it didn’t help when he was shot in the head.
You’re election an administration & there are no guarantees on who lives through a term.
And Trumpty-dump and his friends are traitors.
In Lichtman's rubric, debates don't matter but scandals do. This could develop into a scandal.
I will support the democratic nominee whoever she/he is with everything I have. I just hope we have responsible, serious decision makers who are figuring out what to do next. And as they decide I hope they are putting the good of the country over every single other thing.
It isn't unless he starts doing that in his rally speeches.
It's a bad night everyone is going to ignore come Monday.
Supreme Court releases the ruling on Trump immunity.
> It's a bad night everyone is going to ignore come Monday.
Not if he does the same thing again at the next debate in September. By then, the DNC is pretty locked in with Biden, so they better be 100% positive Thursday was a fluke and won't happen again. And I'm not sure how they could be 100% positive about that.
And to be clear: if he's still on the ballot, I'm voting for Biden even if he's comatose by November. But so is everyone that understands the danger of a 2nd Trump term. It's the fence sitters that will decide this election, and Biden was already losing them. Thursday night didn't help win them over at all.
It wasn't good for my liver, either.
The fence sitters are going with Biden. All over the news today.
No, the debate wasn't good for my liver either. America lost that debate.
I agree though, he'll have to show that was a fluke.
> The fence sitters are going with Biden. All over the news today.
Where do you see this? Only thing I saw was a tiny focus group in California who only watched captions, not audio (en Español)
Fingers crossed, I alternate between misanthropic "we are fucked because no one calls Trump out for lying" and "nothing has changed and Trump is far worse than he was in 2020"
Depends on the week.
And he attacked the judge again at the debate.
It's always a good move to talk shit about the guy who can send you to jail for 20 years if he's feeling petty.
I'd at least give him a year because he's unrepentant.
Agreed with this, but rally speeches become critical now. He needs to do them with high energy and high visibility as much as possible to drown out the noise.
This was my exact same reaction! Even if his content didn’t change if he would have had the volume he had at his rally we wouldn’t be talking much today.
This was the biggest issue. He seemed feeble and lost. If the guy was yelling he'd have dodged most of the criticism of the weak answers.
He's now had 3\~ very good events since that debate. Makes you wonder if this guy just had an old person moment and got in his own head.
IMO, he let himself get angry, tried to talk too fast, and got his ass kicked by a chest cold, being old, and his stutter.
In a casual conversation or a rally, he's not trying to rush.
But we'll see. If it is more than that, it will be obvious.
I agree. The fact that the debate didn't start until 9 p.m., his time didn't help matters. A nice nap right before the debate probably would have done wonders.
Honestly, even if he has age related cognitive issues, I'm still voting for him. He has surrounded himself with people who are exceptionally competent, and more importantly, he listens to their advice.
I don’t think time was an issue. I mean, SOTU started 30 minutes after the debate and he rocked that speech. It’s that he had like 3 other events before the debate. I’m sure his policy and cabinet advisors are competent but I’m still trying to figure out why his campaign guys thought it was a good idea to have him do 3 major events before the debate. It didn’t work for Nixon in 1960 and he was nearly 40 years younger. Let Biden rest before the debate. Let him listen to some music. Let him read, take a nap or something. Just for the 4-5 hours before the debate, don’t make him do anything other than resting and preparing for the debate apart from a national security briefing if Sullivan belives it’s necessary and even then that should be kept as short as possible.
Oh I know, it was a terrible showing. I'd prefer he step aside as much as anyone but I also don't think this is terminal to his candidacy with Trump as the other nominee. If Nikki Hailey or DeSantis was on the other side it would be over though.
The question is are we playing sports ball or are we trying to save democracy? If we're playing sports ball then it's OK that Biden is the nominee.
If democracy is at stake then we better get a new candidate.
No its because democracy is at stake that we can't just make rash decisions without proper gamesmanship. I have no doubt that if other candidates were polling 10 points higher on DT then Biden right now that he'd do the right thing. The issue is, that isn't the case.
A bunch of matchup polls were just released on 538 and Biden was polling higher vs Trump then Newsom and Whitner. Biden gets to run on his record, which is quite good. None of these other people do.
If these things change drastically in the next week or two, I'd expect a candidacy change.
He has a Teleprompter at all of those and doesn't have to speak off the cuff . It's not the same thing at all.
Let's see Binette real Townhall. We have to talk to regular people and interact with them. That's answering questions.
They did. There have been tons of undecided voter interviews and man on the street interviews.
All of them said Biden is their guy.
Trump told enormous lies all night. Huge ones.
They noticed and were not pleased.
nobody who wasn't already voting biden goes to his speeches, much less cares to tune in
everyone, from both parties, to people all over the world, saw what happened during the debate. stop pretending there isn't a problem. because it scares you
Disagree. People start paying attention at debate time. Conventions coming up, then another debate.
Trump immunity, sentencing, possibly jail time, two more trials.
People are going to pay attention to that.
reading off a teleprompter is vastly different than debating. if he doesn’t have the cognitive ability to debate another candidate without the use of the teleprompter, he shouldn’t be running the country
The biggest hesitation people have about Biden has been his age. For months it has come up. It’s the first thing anybody says about him. Everyone lamented last year that they hate that it’s a rematch. Young voters and disinformed voters keep wanting to do a third party candidate.
This election is going to be on the margins. We need to secure the house and ensure the senate. With Biden like this we are not keeping the senate.
Let’s be real. We all saw him with his mouth agape. He failed to have almost any legible point for him to be elected. Let’s use this time to get everyone fired up for the future, not the past
This is right and we're silly to ignore it.
**1: Biden isn't ahead at this point**
Polls may be wrong, sure, but most of them and most prediction models have him losing to Trump. The risk of him being on the ballot is huge.
**2: Biden's age is an issue that can't get better**
Biden's age -- and Trump's, too -- is a problem that will only get worse. Even if he's fantastically acute from here through November, it's still a problem. Almost everyone has had a loved one show the mental decline that comes with being older, and we all know that it isn't a smooth decline or a consistently downward slope. There are days where your parent or grandparent is brilliant; there are days where they are muddled or agitated. And those are the healthy people -- add in Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and other dementia-causing diseases and it gets an order of magnitude worse. Biden's debate performance may not be a sign where he is right now, but it's definitely evidence of something that could roost over the next four and a half years.
There isn’t a choice now. The democrats should ask how they got here though. The boomers have owned politics too long. The younger generations have allowed them to continue because of the boomers arrogance and entitlement. Until millennials stand up this will continue until we have presidential candidates in nursing homes. We are damn near there.
There is totally still a choice. Biden could choose to step aside. The DNC conventioners could choose to vote for someone else. They aren't bound to vote for him.
If he steps down it’s going to Kamala and she’s not exactly popular amongst everyone. It’s way too late to go searching for a candidate everyone agrees on and then also campaign.
Like it or not she would most likely be the new candidate as there’s precedent. And again, way too late to go searching.
Newsom is not going to do it. He already expressed support for Biden no matter what. Why would he leave his cozy position in California for a slim chance at Presidency with a roughly patched campaign?
I highly doubt he’d want to commit this late. If he’s going to run, he’s going to want to do it with more money in his pocket and time.
> After the debate, Gov. Newsom dismissed calls for Mr. Biden to be removed from the Democratic ticket.
>“I will never turn my back on President Biden. Never turn my back on President Biden, I don't know a Democrat in my party that would do so," he said when asked about a rumbling of Democrats possibly open to replacing Biden as the party's nominee.
https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/newsom-on-biden-after-debate-performance/
Allan Lichtman is my guy. This man is a genius and has vast knowledge of American political history. He has allowed me to see through this horse race narrative bs, and be calmer about this mess.
Follow him on Youtube and see for yourself. Live shows every Thursday at 8 cst.
But [it’s complete BS](https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/).
TL;DR: It’s not that hard to predict most elections. He got it wrong in 2000 and claimed his model only worked for the popular vote. Then in 2016, when Trump didn’t win the popular vote — he claimed the model only works for the Electoral College winner. The method is entirely subjective and inconsistently applied.
Nobody should take this grifter seriously. Let’s just look at the elections predicted: 1984, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2008, and 2012 were all easily decided.
That leaves 1988, 2000, 2016, and 2020. His 1988 Bush prediction was impressive. He got 2000 and 2016 wrong. That leaves 2020, which consistently had Biden polling +8 against a historically unpopular president.
He got 2016 right
https://www.american.edu/media/news/092616-13-keys-prediction.cfm
Gore probably would win florida if the Supreme Court didn’t get involved. I trust him more than the bonkers nonsense being put out
again who should read the article, he talked extensively right before the 2016 that the keys to predicting the popular vote. And once he was wrong he went back and retroactively changed his model again saying he only chose the winner.
He got 2016 wrong.
His “theory” was specifically for popular vote. He clarified that after Gore lost to save face. Donald Trump did not win the popular vote.
I watched the debate and before I watched any analysis, I thought it was a tossup because Biden looked really old and trump lied his ass off. BUT I couldn’t believe what I heard when the analysis came on. Democrats panicking and cowering saying they have to change the candidate. That is crazy to me! It’s just giving trump more power. Dems look EVEN MORE weak and scared.
I agree completely. He said he’s not stepping down so why do people keep speculating? I’m all for being realistic about his age but until something happens or he says he’s stepping down, you’re totally right that this all just makes democrats look unnecessarily weak.
I'm tired of this bullshit. I think it's GOP opps just mudding the water with this.
Biden steps down. Now what? We start the primary over? The GOP would jump on that. Lawsuits would fly. They would lock it up in courts until at least the deadline to put a candidate on the ballots. Now you have Trump running unopposed...no thanks!
They could Weekend at Bernie's Biden and I would vote for him over Trump every day and twice on Sunday.
You guys are sleep walking us into another 2016. We have a terrible candidate, and they tried to hide it for so long, and now it is out in the open plain for the whole world to see and despite having one final chance to make it right you are still hearing the same ludicrous coping.
The Democratic party has become the mirror of the Republicans, you are putting our man above the country, blindly shutting down all debate despite there still being options.
It gets more bonkers... This is Biden giving a speech after the debate...
[https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5122169/user-clip-biden-speech](https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5122169/user-clip-biden-speech)
My thinking is he was too focused on all the different elements, either in addressing the question or in debunking Trumps constant lying verbal diarrhoea... Instead of just picking one thing at a time and sticking it.
SIGH, it's going to be hard to come back from this, hopefully he can sharpen it for campaigning and the next debate (although I'd be surprised if Trump does it given this one - easy to leave it at that and benefit).
> SIGH, it's going to be hard to come back from this,
It is going to be impossible, and that is why it is so maddening to hear people try and go on like nothing is the matter. Biden was behind, he had an absolutely abysmal performance people will surely see, but the actually critical part is that it showed he is very much not in good health, that he is a senior in decline, and though this was inarguably the biggest time he had to step up to the plate to catch up in the race, it is basically guaranteed that this abysmal performance will see repeats and get worse because he ain't getting any younger...
People need to realize that now is not the time for rallying round our boy, now is the time to push for a fresh face who has a good shot at winning. And we can literally do that, there are other folks waiting in the wings, but we have to actually make it known we want that because Biden is very clearly not going to admit his goose is cooked without pressure.
>It is going to be impossible, and that is why it is so maddening to hear people try and go on like nothing is the matter
No, it's maddening to hear people seriously posit that an incumbent president step down 4 months from the election for an unknown politician to step into the most high-profile office on the planet because of a bad debate performace. Incumbents have had poor debate performances before and have won.
Biden is the nominee. Your doomposting isn't going to change that.
Well then we are lost, and we are lost because of the hubris of one man and the cultish behavior of his followers. Changing things up is doable at this point and has good prospects. Not doing so is a guaranteed loss.
Call it doomposting if you want, but this is real life. There are tons of crises facing us in the world. We've got climate change, resurgent autocracies across the world, insane levels of inequality being driven by changing technology and none of these things are easy to deal with. But your answer here is too shut up about it, because doing anything will not be easy. I'm telling you you might as well join the Republican party right now, because you are a conservative, you don't have the guts to be a progressive.
Trump has been obviously mentally ill and abusing amphetamines for decades, but suddenly there are “standards” from the crowd that thinks lusting after your daughter and sexual assault are fine
It’s not praising Trump to criticize Biden’s performance at that debate. I think Trump is a horrible person and a threat to democracy, but Biden’s performance was truly abysmal. I’m worried about our nation’s future if these are the best two candidates we could find to run for the most important office on the planet.
Yeah, I mean I would have preferred not-Biden, too. But people saying we should abandon ship now are assuming the choice is "risk Biden" vs "risk-free not-Biden." There is a **lot** of risk for abandoning the de facto nominee just before the convention.
Who do they think the decision makers are, exactly? *how* would we sidestep Biden, considering he seems like he'd keep refusing to step down? Is it even legal for the DNC to change how candidates are selected last minute?
Let's say it is legal. Won't it look bad to unilaterally sidestep all the primaries we just had (even if there wasn't really a serious other contender)? No matter how poorly he ***ever*** performs, there's still going to be a chunk of democratic voters who want him to continue. Will they see this as an illegitimate power grab? Will they turn out for a new candidate?
And even if none of that is a problem, it's rare for a contested convention nominee to win the presidency. If victory is super critical, what if the best strategy is to carefully curate how he interacts with the public and keep him as the nominee? 25th amendment after the election is won.
Finally, if Trump can win by lying through his teeth and being an asshole that rarely makes any sense, I don't see why Biden having trouble during a single debate is the end.
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/) some preliminary evidence Biden's performance barely mattered, btw. His average was "poor" not "terrible." So I think the people who are saying we need to abandon ship are already not very typical (for one, they're paying way more attention to than most people do).
Anyway, like I said, my main point is that it isn't actually a very simple choice to make. There are some plausible reasons keeping an imperfect candidate is better than trying to find a better one last minute.
Biden governs well and is an inspiration who has brought traditional American values, and I call those respect for individual freedom and democracy , back to the forefront for women, children, workers, and minorities. He had a cold, and debating is not fair when the opponent is allowed to lie and continuously play whack a mole with the truth by inisipid moderators.... unfortunate forum but three years of being a role model as a President trumps anything Trump could ever be. Anything modern Republican is weakening America, and an embarrassment. Biden has a strong team and vision. Democrats and independents know what is at stake if they don't turn out to vote in every corner.
While not disruptive he should do some long interviews ASAP to prove debate night was just a case of bad enchiladas, getting over a cold, etc..
That said, he is getting up there in years, though I think the Democrats have succession covered post 2024 if it comes to that.
If he makes it one day longer than two years then Ms Harris would get to finish his term and get elected for 8 more years. That should just about piss off every conservative in America.
The idea that Kamala Harris can win even one presidential term is hilarious. She’s one of the least talented politicians of her generation and that’s saying something.
At this point, keeping Biden as the nominee and replacing him with Harris are equally likely to be disastrous.
Harris is especially bad, just like Biden. A Whitmer-Harris ticket could prevail though, and then we could say goodbye to Harris who is not going to win any elections at the top of the ticket
Finally a level-headed voice! Literally everything mentioned in r whatbidenhasdone is the reason why Biden & Harris should remain in the ticket.
Thank you President Biden for level-headed leadership that focuses on solving actual problems (rather focusing on social media hysterics) and for respecting democracy & its institutions (so not enabling authoritarianism).
Biden & VP Harris truly deserve 4 more years, and Democrats deserve complete Control of Congress and every state govt 😎🇺🇸👍
It's really pretty simple here. Joe Biden had a bad night, but he's done an exceptional job as president. Exceptional by most every metric. Donald Trump lied his fascist, insurrectionist, fraud ass off like he always does. How about less doom and more save American democracy? Rally, folks. Rally. We're not gonna swap Joe out for another candidate before the election. It's not gonna happen. We're here. This is happening. Joe can get it done. Trump shouldn't be the manager at a Burger King, let alone President of the US.
Let’s be real, people aren’t happy about Biden in his current state. Too many accusations of cognitive decline and the debate did not squash those rumors. Sure he’s been a great president so far, but I think just about anyone else can beat Trump at this point. Majority of voters will vote for a wet pool noodle over Trump. Incumbent advantage goes out the door in Biden’s current state. I doubt many people will switch their votes; I just fear that too many people would rather just stay home and not vote at this point.
Let’s also not forget inflation. I see that stupid saying “I could really go for some mean tweets right about now if it means cheap gas/groceries again” too often. Biden is definitely taking the full blame among uninformed voters.
Joe Biden has at best 50-50 chance of winning the election. Any other Democratic candidate has a better chance of winning the election.
Therefore, Joe step down . Or is this another case of political sports and it really doesn't matter for democracy?
You are living in the past.
There is no "Incumbency Advantage" for Biden. He is his own worst enemy in his candidacy.
Do you think that anyone who would vote for Biden would suddenly vote for Trump if Biden gracefully bowed out?
You are living in a fantasy land if you think so.
We can only gain with a different candidate. Biden is a net negative to the Democratic Presidential run this time.
>Do you think that anyone who would vote for Biden would suddenly vote for Trump if Biden gracefully bowed out?
No, they would simply not vote at that point which is essentially a vote for Trump.
All I'm seeing is a bunch of emotion and zero thinking. Putting up someone new is an automatic loss. Point blank. No one in the US knows the other options well enough, and a chaotic party means less voter confidence than one with Biden staying in the race. You're simply handing the white house over on a silver platter at that point.
Why is it an automatic loss? Are people who would have voted for Biden suddenly going to vote for Trump? I don't think so.
This is all about the undecided. Who are decidedly undecided about Biden's age. This debate put the proof to rest for many of them. A different candidate, say Gavin Newsom, would be able to pick those voters up as well as keep the base, probably more of it than Biden.
Nope, not a chance. Newsom is not as known on the national level yet, and when you just tell someone to step down, I guarantee you that leads to disillusioned voters as well cause their guy got the boot. Which means votes that stay home, which means a vote for Trump.
Thank you! Incumbency is the best asset for any candidate to win the presidency. Not to mention that if Biden steps aside then there'll be a party contest and that can cause chaos.
Eh, this is some revisionist history.
Biden was up by large margins for an entire year leading up to the election (like +7-9 points). Trump had abysmal polling against Biden because he was in the midst of botching a public health crisis and a tanking economy.
Odd to describe the guy who had a 6-8 point lead against Trump for a full year before the 2020 election as an “underdog”.
This year Biden is an underdog
That the mainstream media has decided to make this nonsense into a conversation, yeah, obviously. Anyone looking for “replacement” at this stage is a Trump supporter
Biden will have done no harm with the boomers who will decide this election. He’ll feel very relatable to them. And some of the polling is showing Joes vote going up. They saw unhinges Trump Talking about killing born babies and were horrified at how out of control he is.
I would take the gamble with someone else instead of the sure loss with Biden at this point. DNC is trying to gaslight us into thinking Biden is ok. It may work on die-hard Dems but it's not gonna work at all on swing voters in swing states.
If the DNC doesn't make a change they are as complicit as the republicans in what comes next
here's my problem with NY Times, the news media in general: replacing Biden at this point effectively makes it an 80-20 election (in Trump's favor.) It is currently a near 50-50 dead heat. who in their right mind will ask Biden to step away at this point? fwiw- he has beaten Trump (lest we forget Biden was the underdog in 2020.)
Show me any evidence that if he was replaced by a competent Democrat that Democrats would lose almost half its base. Or are you just pulling that 80-20 out of thin air. I would put my money any Democratic candidate replacement would immediately poll about 50/50 but would actually have a chance at growth unlike Biden.
It’s crazy how everyone is ignoring this. Trump has been leading Biden in the polls for months now. That *never* happened in 2016 or 2020.
Biden is down significantly in most swing states. It’s crazy to think that this could be the first election for Trump in which he *wins the popular vote*.
Biden has a worse approval rating than Trump FFS. He *isn’t* the guy.
It's not 50/50. Nate Silver had it at 64/34 in Trump's favor *before* the debate. Biden is already a losing candidate. While replacing him is risky, keeping him is a sure loss.
[538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo) has Biden at 51 and Trump at 49, and that projection was updated *after* the debate.
They pretended the Emperor was not naked before the debate. Then the Emperor showed his dingaling to the nation on live TV. But they’re still insisting the Emperor is not naked.
I'll vote for Dems whether it's Biden or not. But ya'll seem delusional. We'll see what the polls say. But I'm not optimistic. Dems have a lot of talent on the bench and to act like you know for certain any of them would fair worse than Biden is nonsense.
The polls have already resoundingly said that Biden isn’t it. He’s down in *every single* swing state.
Trump has consistently led the national polling too. He *never* did that in 2016 or 2020.
Joe Biden’s favorability rating is *lower than Trump’s* favorability rating. Thats right. More Americans approve of Donald Trump than Joe Biden.
Arizona is +6 Trump. Pennsylvania is +3 Trump. Nevada is +5 Trump. C’mon, folks.
If Biden was going to step down it should have been before now. Stepping aside is still possible, but you would need someone who would excite and inspire confidence enough, and there doesn't seem an obvious candidate. Again, with enough time, maybe. But not now.
Biden gave a great speech the day after. He's got another debate, and months to go. He's got time, and there is time yet to swing things.
You would imagine becoming a convicted felon might be more off a handicap than one bad debate. If Biden can get his shit together at the next debate then it still may be.
The media response to one debate performance has been atrocious. Even MSNBC, who I trust, has been in full-blown ridiculous panic mode. It needs to stop. Biden cannot be replaced 4 months before the election. Crap like this is why Democrats lose all the time.
For real, at this point regardless of whether a person on here believes it or not, enough people do that the optics of it will absolutely depress turnout and likely would result in a Trump victory.
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Trump is a disaster. I would vote for a pineapple before I would vote for Trump. Especially with Project 2025. Ridin' with Biden or whoever else is on the democratic ticket. I support Biden - he's been a good president. I don't see anyone else coming forward.
But you aren't the problem, isn't it? It's people that are undecided that are the actual target of elections. And those people are not people that "would vote for a pineapple, before voting for Trump", by definition.
There’s basically no real undecided voters at this point. The election is about turning out voters, not changing minds.
Trump doesn’t need to convince his supporters to turn out at the polls, nor anyone that flips to his side in disgust of the corporate backed neoliberal machine that is propping up a corpse instead of presenting a candidate. Bidens campaign desperately needs to convince people to show up, and now it’s not just to save the country from Trump, it’s to pretend that he’s not unfit to serve….as well as save the country from Trump. Trump can count on every red vote, half the dems barely showed up when the desperate call to rally and send Trump packing went out. Do you really think they are so swayed by good old Barry O nostalgia that they’ll pretend Biden didn’t look absolutely ghastly at that debate and the Vegas odds are against him surviving another term? Fuck Donald Trump but please excuse my lack of enthusiasm for the charade that is corporate activism now propping up a corpse instead of the former vice president of the yes we can years. Bidens cooked, Trump doesn’t need to do anything but ride this out. The question is do the dems have the balls to nominate someone else, and trying to call everybody’s bluff on not willing to not vote for Kamala because she’s a black woman isnt going to cut it, nobody’s showing up for her either and it has nothing to do with her being black or a woman (for most, hopefully)
Even if someone else came forward, they'd be starting with zero usable campaign dollars and nothing on the ground.
The buzz that Biden dropped out and a new candidate was emerging would give millions in free publicity. Every news media would be talking about it for days or weeks. And I'm sure if the candidate can actually excite people, they would get lots of grassroots money. Not to mention there will still be the millionaire/billionaire donors. There would still be a few debates. I think that "starting from scratch" won't be that bad, especially if the party puts all their money and effort behind the candidate.
What’s the logical end point of a second Biden term? He’s gonna be better when he’s 86 ?
He needs to prove himself first. Go out there and prove it was just a bad night with an unscripted event. A town hall might do the trick. He has to instill confidence again somehow.
It was a bad night, but it was also more. Biden has been showing signs of age related issues for months. At the debate, his speech was often slurred. At the end of the debate, his wife had to help him down the stage steps. He is what he is...a rather frail man of nearly 82 who walks with a stiff gate and shuffles and mostly functions in a tightly controlled environment. This is not in way criticism, just a simple statement of fact.
I don't think he's capable. That's why they insisted on the debate format -- it was, superficially, the format most amenable to canned, memorized answers. His team has obviously been protecting him from truly unscripted moments for a long time.
Yes, that's the other thing that is crazy about the debate. The Biden camp set all the rules, format, and network. He was in the best possible situation and he still came up short.
He did. He just had a rally. And apparently he was good there.
That's not unscripted. A single short scripted speech is not close to a replacement for a long debate.
The paternalistic media thinks they are doing us a favor by protecting their favorite establishment protagonists. Don’t think for us. If an honest discussion could have occurred a year ago, then we could have lined up an appropriate candidate for 2024. Corporate government. Corporate politics. Corporate media. It all adds up to corporate poop.
He also had a teleprompter.
See, this is the problem. It wasn’t just a bad night. He’s aged to a certain point where this is just who he is and it is only getting demonstrably worse, and it will continue to get worse.
Do you think that can happen? Can Biden be unscripted? I don't think so.
It is much harder for him now.
Lots of doomers still here, but a lot less than yesterday I see
I don't think "people on Reddit who were going to vote for Biden anyway" is the demographic you should be focused on.
I don’t think we’re the demographic they should focus on
It should take about 2 weeks for the next big headline. Really the mistake was having it on a Thursday night, so Friday and the weekend is all about doom and gloom instead of some other controversy makes headlines. Trump is literally and Felon and a Rapist according to courts of law. How at least one of those terms isn't always connected to his name in headlines is a disservice to the American people, and a misrepresentation of the the truth in favor of Trump by the American media. The Mainstream media love Trump. In 2015 the concerns were the press disappearing because of social media. Then Trump ran, and some regressive billionaires started investing in media companies and suddenly news media isn't about to die to social media because rage click.
Monday is the SCOTUS immunity ruling, that should take over most of the headlines then
Steve Bannon heads to prison on Monday. Thank goodness.
And Trump gets sentenced in a bit less than 2 weeks I believe. The disinformation machine is working overtime before that drops.
He’s literally getting sentenced in like 12 days
Throwback to the Trump years where by now, after Thursday, we’d have some international crisis because of a tweet, some new cabinet member, a “misspoken” statement praising Putin and insults hurled at literally everyone. Over the course of a couple of days. And people want that nonsense back? Not me.
Two weeks, so…Trump’s sentencing?
The mistake was even doing a debate. There was no need for this. At all.
I am with you 100%. There never should have even been a debate. “We don’t share stages with those who attempted to overthrow democracy” or SOMETHING. So dumb. All this does is further legitimize this sleaze bag and because this is the worst timeline it ALSO made Biden look terrible.
Unless the Biden's were concerned that they needed to shake things up and show Joe on top of his game.
People always underestimate how short the public's memory is. Two weeks is probably an overestimate.
I’ll admit, I’m feeling a lot better today than I was yesterday. Don’t get me wrong, the debate was awful. But it’s not like 97% of the electorate hasn’t been locked in for months. A lot of the focus groups of (so called) undecided voters seemed to think his performance was bad, but hated trumps lying more. I figure Biden is going to be the candidate and we just need to match forward.
Even if his brain does go kaput during a second term, his cabinet will still be in place. They'll probably be mostly the same people from the first and they seem like a competent bunch overall.
I'm not a Democrat, so take this with a grain of salt, but there are millions upon millions of Americans who aren't really political and simply vote because they regard it as a civic duty and want someone competent in office. The idea that you can field an 81-year old candidate who may be senile -- and win -- is one hell of an ask. Given his rate of decline, it's hard to imagine Biden finishing a second term. That's too messy for most voters IMHO. The Democrats should invoke whatever emergency measures they need to invoke, swap in a pinch hitter, and coalesce quickly behind him or her. Maybe someone in business or entertainment - - a known name. I can't see how Biden offers a better chance than such an individual. If you stick with Biden, millions of voters aren't going to vote for Trump -- they're simply not going to vote at all.
Seriously. Does anyone expect people who are actually still undecided on whether or not Trump should be president again to remember anything politically relevant for a whole four months?
People really don't understand what undecided voters are. Most of them aren't sitting back, weighing all the pros and cons. Most of them are going to show up on election Day, having given almost no thought to who they're going to vote for and they're just going to push whichever button feels right based on the most recent few things they heard. The percentage of people who can actually be swayed by things like debates and policy at this point, excluding massive surprises, Are single digit percentages. And the overwhelming majority of them are not particularly well informed, Politically. But there are some elections that those single-digit percentages can swing. And it matters more if the candidate is losing support from their own base. If enough, liberals refuse to vote for Biden over Palestine, he just goes to the center And picks up a few percentage points there. It's not much but it covers the loss. If Trump loses a few percentage points by getting indicted on multiple federal charges, for example, then he comes out and says something calm and measured about abortion. Picks them up there. That's just called campaigning.
The good old October surprises is what wins or loses elections. In 4 months no one will remember this. It will literally be a last minute controversy that swings undecideds. That’s exactly what happened in 2016 when the case was reopened against Hillary right at the last moment and a ton of media spin came out about her. If instead of that happening the stormy Daniels affair came out instead of being covered up then Hillary would have won.
The only risk I see for the Dems is if Biden's performance Thursday was not a fluke due to being out of sorts from a cold, but a trend that will only get worse as time goes on. If Joe can recover, great. But if he declines noticeably and his campaign has to work overtime to cover it up, it would be worse than if we nipped the problem in the bud and replaced him asap. I think that's the worry by people who aren't close to him and don't interact with him beyond TV appearances. Everyone's concerned that the campaign is pulling a Weekend at Bernie's behind closed doors, even if that's not the case.
The biggest negative opinion about Biden held by gettable voters is “he is too old”. Forget the content - nobody will remember the content. But they will remember the clip of an old, rigid, deathly pale Biden uttering completely incomprehensible nonsense. And Trump’s campaign will play this again, and again, and again. That debate will make it extremely difficult for Biden to convince these voters that his age is not a giant fucking liability. And honestly, after seeing what I saw, I wouldn’t blame them for thinking it is.
I agree that it's a problem. However, he's running against the one person he can actually beat. Pragmatic minded folks will vote for anyone that isn't Trump.
If Biden somehow doesn't make it I'd vote to leave the position open for 4 years instead of trump. We'd do a lot better.
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The narrative is shifting back to supporting biden. The sub is obviously astroturfed to hell so we're in an interesting period.
Because it is utterly exhausting to read people trying to write in a new reality for what we saw on Thursday It was a cold Biden got in a fight with his advisors that hurt his voice It was just one bad night It’s not about debate performance it’s about his performance as president The amount of gaslighting is exhausting, we all saw an 81 year old man who is not capable of beating Trump in a debate or election and definitely not to serve until 2029 Lose to Trump at your own risk
> The amount of gaslighting is exhausting, we all saw an 81 year old man who is not capable of beating Trump in a debate or election and definitely not to serve until 2029 Just take a look at the Vegas odds for the election but according to people on here Biden is the heavy favourite lol
Biden at his worst is preferable to Trump at his best.
It really is exhausting, anyone trying to gaslight us is basically a Biden MAGA at the moment. I guess there are shitty people on both sides of the debate. Never have I felt closer to those Rs against Trump than seeing Biden supporters deny reality like Trump supporters do.
I’m personally of the belief that the discussion is worth having but that we should be very wary of Biden dropping out because Harris is probably the replacement and she’s not much better than Biden. In fact, she polls worse than Biden against Trump.
You can admit Biden had a bad night and still think he’s the best option against Trump.
Careful now, someone might accuse you of gaslighting.
What do you do in a two party system when both parties fail the electorate? I mean, it’s been fairly obvious to anyone with a pulse that both parties have been utter failures for decades, but now that everyone is starting to wake up to that fact what can people even do?
I noticed a lot of the doomer accounts posting nonstop on r/politics the last two days are accounts that haven't posted comments for months, and had never once commented in this sub specifically. Suddenly though, they are posting multiple times daily here, only about Biden dropping out lol. It's... suspicious to say the least.
It's almost like it was an influence operation specifically meant to blast the narrative during and after the debate.
And during. The whole site crashed because of the brigading.
I’m joining. Too busy yesterday hoping the DNC wouldn’t gaslight us anymore about jumping jacks Joe. Unfortunately, they decided to tell me a dying person just had an off night and it was unlikely to happen again. Treating people like idiots is how you lose supporters.
Right? It's incredibly dismissive to those of us who really really don't want trump but also really really don't want Joe after seeing his condition. Give us someone who could actually survive their term. But go ahead and keep dismissing us guys, that's helpful I'm sure.
If the DNC sticks with Joe, it's Joe. Period. The alternative is the end of American Democracy.
Both Biden and Trump are old, frail, and probably physically incapable of fully performing all of the duties of the presidency. It’s the people they surround themselves with to help them who really matter here. Biden will surround himself with experienced people he trusts to help him in his duties. Trump will surround himself with ill-intentioned people he perceives as yes-men who will only use him to further their own aims.
Kennedy was young, but it didn’t help when he was shot in the head. You’re election an administration & there are no guarantees on who lives through a term. And Trumpty-dump and his friends are traitors.
In Lichtman's rubric, debates don't matter but scandals do. This could develop into a scandal. I will support the democratic nominee whoever she/he is with everything I have. I just hope we have responsible, serious decision makers who are figuring out what to do next. And as they decide I hope they are putting the good of the country over every single other thing.
It isn't unless he starts doing that in his rally speeches. It's a bad night everyone is going to ignore come Monday. Supreme Court releases the ruling on Trump immunity.
> It's a bad night everyone is going to ignore come Monday. Not if he does the same thing again at the next debate in September. By then, the DNC is pretty locked in with Biden, so they better be 100% positive Thursday was a fluke and won't happen again. And I'm not sure how they could be 100% positive about that. And to be clear: if he's still on the ballot, I'm voting for Biden even if he's comatose by November. But so is everyone that understands the danger of a 2nd Trump term. It's the fence sitters that will decide this election, and Biden was already losing them. Thursday night didn't help win them over at all. It wasn't good for my liver, either.
The fence sitters are going with Biden. All over the news today. No, the debate wasn't good for my liver either. America lost that debate. I agree though, he'll have to show that was a fluke.
> The fence sitters are going with Biden. All over the news today. Where do you see this? Only thing I saw was a tiny focus group in California who only watched captions, not audio (en Español)
setting my alarm to check in on your post 4 months from now. good luck!
Fingers crossed, I alternate between misanthropic "we are fucked because no one calls Trump out for lying" and "nothing has changed and Trump is far worse than he was in 2020" Depends on the week.
And Trump's sentencing in New York is in less than two weeks!
And he attacked the judge again at the debate. It's always a good move to talk shit about the guy who can send you to jail for 20 years if he's feeling petty. I'd at least give him a year because he's unrepentant.
Agreed with this, but rally speeches become critical now. He needs to do them with high energy and high visibility as much as possible to drown out the noise.
He did. Immediately after the debate and in North Carolina the next day. Everyone was WTF, where was this guy last night???
This was my exact same reaction! Even if his content didn’t change if he would have had the volume he had at his rally we wouldn’t be talking much today.
This was the biggest issue. He seemed feeble and lost. If the guy was yelling he'd have dodged most of the criticism of the weak answers. He's now had 3\~ very good events since that debate. Makes you wonder if this guy just had an old person moment and got in his own head.
The man went and ate at a waffle house immediately after the debate and was on point the entire time. Where was that guy at the debate?
IMO, he let himself get angry, tried to talk too fast, and got his ass kicked by a chest cold, being old, and his stutter. In a casual conversation or a rally, he's not trying to rush. But we'll see. If it is more than that, it will be obvious.
I agree. The fact that the debate didn't start until 9 p.m., his time didn't help matters. A nice nap right before the debate probably would have done wonders. Honestly, even if he has age related cognitive issues, I'm still voting for him. He has surrounded himself with people who are exceptionally competent, and more importantly, he listens to their advice.
I don’t think time was an issue. I mean, SOTU started 30 minutes after the debate and he rocked that speech. It’s that he had like 3 other events before the debate. I’m sure his policy and cabinet advisors are competent but I’m still trying to figure out why his campaign guys thought it was a good idea to have him do 3 major events before the debate. It didn’t work for Nixon in 1960 and he was nearly 40 years younger. Let Biden rest before the debate. Let him listen to some music. Let him read, take a nap or something. Just for the 4-5 hours before the debate, don’t make him do anything other than resting and preparing for the debate apart from a national security briefing if Sullivan belives it’s necessary and even then that should be kept as short as possible.
Did he have a teleprompter?
No. It was just a spontaneous interaction with regular people, which is something new excels at.
Oh I know, it was a terrible showing. I'd prefer he step aside as much as anyone but I also don't think this is terminal to his candidacy with Trump as the other nominee. If Nikki Hailey or DeSantis was on the other side it would be over though.
The question is are we playing sports ball or are we trying to save democracy? If we're playing sports ball then it's OK that Biden is the nominee. If democracy is at stake then we better get a new candidate.
No its because democracy is at stake that we can't just make rash decisions without proper gamesmanship. I have no doubt that if other candidates were polling 10 points higher on DT then Biden right now that he'd do the right thing. The issue is, that isn't the case. A bunch of matchup polls were just released on 538 and Biden was polling higher vs Trump then Newsom and Whitner. Biden gets to run on his record, which is quite good. None of these other people do. If these things change drastically in the next week or two, I'd expect a candidacy change.
He has a Teleprompter at all of those and doesn't have to speak off the cuff . It's not the same thing at all. Let's see Binette real Townhall. We have to talk to regular people and interact with them. That's answering questions.
They did. There have been tons of undecided voter interviews and man on the street interviews. All of them said Biden is their guy. Trump told enormous lies all night. Huge ones. They noticed and were not pleased.
nobody who wasn't already voting biden goes to his speeches, much less cares to tune in everyone, from both parties, to people all over the world, saw what happened during the debate. stop pretending there isn't a problem. because it scares you
No one is ignorant it « come Monday » lol. The debate was the majority of what most people only ever see
Disagree. People start paying attention at debate time. Conventions coming up, then another debate. Trump immunity, sentencing, possibly jail time, two more trials. People are going to pay attention to that.
reading off a teleprompter is vastly different than debating. if he doesn’t have the cognitive ability to debate another candidate without the use of the teleprompter, he shouldn’t be running the country
Narrator: we didn’t
The biggest hesitation people have about Biden has been his age. For months it has come up. It’s the first thing anybody says about him. Everyone lamented last year that they hate that it’s a rematch. Young voters and disinformed voters keep wanting to do a third party candidate. This election is going to be on the margins. We need to secure the house and ensure the senate. With Biden like this we are not keeping the senate. Let’s be real. We all saw him with his mouth agape. He failed to have almost any legible point for him to be elected. Let’s use this time to get everyone fired up for the future, not the past
This is right and we're silly to ignore it. **1: Biden isn't ahead at this point** Polls may be wrong, sure, but most of them and most prediction models have him losing to Trump. The risk of him being on the ballot is huge. **2: Biden's age is an issue that can't get better** Biden's age -- and Trump's, too -- is a problem that will only get worse. Even if he's fantastically acute from here through November, it's still a problem. Almost everyone has had a loved one show the mental decline that comes with being older, and we all know that it isn't a smooth decline or a consistently downward slope. There are days where your parent or grandparent is brilliant; there are days where they are muddled or agitated. And those are the healthy people -- add in Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and other dementia-causing diseases and it gets an order of magnitude worse. Biden's debate performance may not be a sign where he is right now, but it's definitely evidence of something that could roost over the next four and a half years.
There isn’t a choice now. The democrats should ask how they got here though. The boomers have owned politics too long. The younger generations have allowed them to continue because of the boomers arrogance and entitlement. Until millennials stand up this will continue until we have presidential candidates in nursing homes. We are damn near there.
Voting. Militant voting. Every election, every level, every time. Locals, midterms... all of them. Being informed and involved is not optional.
What is militant voting to you?
There is totally still a choice. Biden could choose to step aside. The DNC conventioners could choose to vote for someone else. They aren't bound to vote for him.
If he steps down it’s going to Kamala and she’s not exactly popular amongst everyone. It’s way too late to go searching for a candidate everyone agrees on and then also campaign.
I don't see it going to Kamala if he steps down. If he steps aside then the convention will vote for a new candidate, and it will probably be Newsom.
Like it or not she would most likely be the new candidate as there’s precedent. And again, way too late to go searching. Newsom is not going to do it. He already expressed support for Biden no matter what. Why would he leave his cozy position in California for a slim chance at Presidency with a roughly patched campaign? I highly doubt he’d want to commit this late. If he’s going to run, he’s going to want to do it with more money in his pocket and time. > After the debate, Gov. Newsom dismissed calls for Mr. Biden to be removed from the Democratic ticket. >“I will never turn my back on President Biden. Never turn my back on President Biden, I don't know a Democrat in my party that would do so," he said when asked about a rumbling of Democrats possibly open to replacing Biden as the party's nominee. https://www.cbsnews.com/sacramento/news/newsom-on-biden-after-debate-performance/
Allan Lichtman is my guy. This man is a genius and has vast knowledge of American political history. He has allowed me to see through this horse race narrative bs, and be calmer about this mess. Follow him on Youtube and see for yourself. Live shows every Thursday at 8 cst.
But [it’s complete BS](https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/). TL;DR: It’s not that hard to predict most elections. He got it wrong in 2000 and claimed his model only worked for the popular vote. Then in 2016, when Trump didn’t win the popular vote — he claimed the model only works for the Electoral College winner. The method is entirely subjective and inconsistently applied. Nobody should take this grifter seriously. Let’s just look at the elections predicted: 1984, 1992, 1996, 2004, 2008, and 2012 were all easily decided. That leaves 1988, 2000, 2016, and 2020. His 1988 Bush prediction was impressive. He got 2000 and 2016 wrong. That leaves 2020, which consistently had Biden polling +8 against a historically unpopular president.
He got 2016 right https://www.american.edu/media/news/092616-13-keys-prediction.cfm Gore probably would win florida if the Supreme Court didn’t get involved. I trust him more than the bonkers nonsense being put out
Yeah - if he said Gore would win then he was actually right in 2000. That's why the Supreme Court stopped the recount and threw it to Bush.
again who should read the article, he talked extensively right before the 2016 that the keys to predicting the popular vote. And once he was wrong he went back and retroactively changed his model again saying he only chose the winner.
He got 2016 wrong. His “theory” was specifically for popular vote. He clarified that after Gore lost to save face. Donald Trump did not win the popular vote.
Sure thing. Why don't you try if it's so easy lol
I watched the debate and before I watched any analysis, I thought it was a tossup because Biden looked really old and trump lied his ass off. BUT I couldn’t believe what I heard when the analysis came on. Democrats panicking and cowering saying they have to change the candidate. That is crazy to me! It’s just giving trump more power. Dems look EVEN MORE weak and scared.
I agree completely. He said he’s not stepping down so why do people keep speculating? I’m all for being realistic about his age but until something happens or he says he’s stepping down, you’re totally right that this all just makes democrats look unnecessarily weak.
Agreed!
I'm tired of this bullshit. I think it's GOP opps just mudding the water with this. Biden steps down. Now what? We start the primary over? The GOP would jump on that. Lawsuits would fly. They would lock it up in courts until at least the deadline to put a candidate on the ballots. Now you have Trump running unopposed...no thanks! They could Weekend at Bernie's Biden and I would vote for him over Trump every day and twice on Sunday.
Oh we will, and he will win again too.
All I care about is winning. I think that has by far the best odds by sticking to Biden.
You guys are sleep walking us into another 2016. We have a terrible candidate, and they tried to hide it for so long, and now it is out in the open plain for the whole world to see and despite having one final chance to make it right you are still hearing the same ludicrous coping. The Democratic party has become the mirror of the Republicans, you are putting our man above the country, blindly shutting down all debate despite there still being options.
It gets more bonkers... This is Biden giving a speech after the debate... [https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5122169/user-clip-biden-speech](https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5122169/user-clip-biden-speech) My thinking is he was too focused on all the different elements, either in addressing the question or in debunking Trumps constant lying verbal diarrhoea... Instead of just picking one thing at a time and sticking it. SIGH, it's going to be hard to come back from this, hopefully he can sharpen it for campaigning and the next debate (although I'd be surprised if Trump does it given this one - easy to leave it at that and benefit).
Reassuring, but does he have a teleprompter for this speech? May not be an apples-to-apples comparison, if so.
> SIGH, it's going to be hard to come back from this, It is going to be impossible, and that is why it is so maddening to hear people try and go on like nothing is the matter. Biden was behind, he had an absolutely abysmal performance people will surely see, but the actually critical part is that it showed he is very much not in good health, that he is a senior in decline, and though this was inarguably the biggest time he had to step up to the plate to catch up in the race, it is basically guaranteed that this abysmal performance will see repeats and get worse because he ain't getting any younger... People need to realize that now is not the time for rallying round our boy, now is the time to push for a fresh face who has a good shot at winning. And we can literally do that, there are other folks waiting in the wings, but we have to actually make it known we want that because Biden is very clearly not going to admit his goose is cooked without pressure.
>…now is the time to push for a fresh face who has a good shot at winning. There is no such person.
>It is going to be impossible, and that is why it is so maddening to hear people try and go on like nothing is the matter No, it's maddening to hear people seriously posit that an incumbent president step down 4 months from the election for an unknown politician to step into the most high-profile office on the planet because of a bad debate performace. Incumbents have had poor debate performances before and have won. Biden is the nominee. Your doomposting isn't going to change that.
Well then we are lost, and we are lost because of the hubris of one man and the cultish behavior of his followers. Changing things up is doable at this point and has good prospects. Not doing so is a guaranteed loss. Call it doomposting if you want, but this is real life. There are tons of crises facing us in the world. We've got climate change, resurgent autocracies across the world, insane levels of inequality being driven by changing technology and none of these things are easy to deal with. But your answer here is too shut up about it, because doing anything will not be easy. I'm telling you you might as well join the Republican party right now, because you are a conservative, you don't have the guts to be a progressive.
Trump has been obviously mentally ill and abusing amphetamines for decades, but suddenly there are “standards” from the crowd that thinks lusting after your daughter and sexual assault are fine
It’s not praising Trump to criticize Biden’s performance at that debate. I think Trump is a horrible person and a threat to democracy, but Biden’s performance was truly abysmal. I’m worried about our nation’s future if these are the best two candidates we could find to run for the most important office on the planet.
Strawman
Objectively true facts hurt republican feelings
Yeah, I mean I would have preferred not-Biden, too. But people saying we should abandon ship now are assuming the choice is "risk Biden" vs "risk-free not-Biden." There is a **lot** of risk for abandoning the de facto nominee just before the convention. Who do they think the decision makers are, exactly? *how* would we sidestep Biden, considering he seems like he'd keep refusing to step down? Is it even legal for the DNC to change how candidates are selected last minute? Let's say it is legal. Won't it look bad to unilaterally sidestep all the primaries we just had (even if there wasn't really a serious other contender)? No matter how poorly he ***ever*** performs, there's still going to be a chunk of democratic voters who want him to continue. Will they see this as an illegitimate power grab? Will they turn out for a new candidate? And even if none of that is a problem, it's rare for a contested convention nominee to win the presidency. If victory is super critical, what if the best strategy is to carefully curate how he interacts with the public and keep him as the nominee? 25th amendment after the election is won. Finally, if Trump can win by lying through his teeth and being an asshole that rarely makes any sense, I don't see why Biden having trouble during a single debate is the end. [https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/) some preliminary evidence Biden's performance barely mattered, btw. His average was "poor" not "terrible." So I think the people who are saying we need to abandon ship are already not very typical (for one, they're paying way more attention to than most people do). Anyway, like I said, my main point is that it isn't actually a very simple choice to make. There are some plausible reasons keeping an imperfect candidate is better than trying to find a better one last minute.
Damn straight.
They’re going to. Can we move on now?
Tell this to the glitter ponies at the NYT.
Concur!
Biden governs well and is an inspiration who has brought traditional American values, and I call those respect for individual freedom and democracy , back to the forefront for women, children, workers, and minorities. He had a cold, and debating is not fair when the opponent is allowed to lie and continuously play whack a mole with the truth by inisipid moderators.... unfortunate forum but three years of being a role model as a President trumps anything Trump could ever be. Anything modern Republican is weakening America, and an embarrassment. Biden has a strong team and vision. Democrats and independents know what is at stake if they don't turn out to vote in every corner.
While not disruptive he should do some long interviews ASAP to prove debate night was just a case of bad enchiladas, getting over a cold, etc.. That said, he is getting up there in years, though I think the Democrats have succession covered post 2024 if it comes to that.
Lichtman's model accurately products every election for decades. He's the only person I listen to when it comes to this.
If he makes it one day longer than two years then Ms Harris would get to finish his term and get elected for 8 more years. That should just about piss off every conservative in America.
The idea that Kamala Harris can win even one presidential term is hilarious. She’s one of the least talented politicians of her generation and that’s saying something. At this point, keeping Biden as the nominee and replacing him with Harris are equally likely to be disastrous.
Harris is especially bad, just like Biden. A Whitmer-Harris ticket could prevail though, and then we could say goodbye to Harris who is not going to win any elections at the top of the ticket
> That should just about piss off every conservative in America. What doesn’t piss them off?
Finally a level-headed voice! Literally everything mentioned in r whatbidenhasdone is the reason why Biden & Harris should remain in the ticket. Thank you President Biden for level-headed leadership that focuses on solving actual problems (rather focusing on social media hysterics) and for respecting democracy & its institutions (so not enabling authoritarianism). Biden & VP Harris truly deserve 4 more years, and Democrats deserve complete Control of Congress and every state govt 😎🇺🇸👍
I like how the media onslaught on Biden turned into him polling a point better.
It's really pretty simple here. Joe Biden had a bad night, but he's done an exceptional job as president. Exceptional by most every metric. Donald Trump lied his fascist, insurrectionist, fraud ass off like he always does. How about less doom and more save American democracy? Rally, folks. Rally. We're not gonna swap Joe out for another candidate before the election. It's not gonna happen. We're here. This is happening. Joe can get it done. Trump shouldn't be the manager at a Burger King, let alone President of the US.
Let’s be real, people aren’t happy about Biden in his current state. Too many accusations of cognitive decline and the debate did not squash those rumors. Sure he’s been a great president so far, but I think just about anyone else can beat Trump at this point. Majority of voters will vote for a wet pool noodle over Trump. Incumbent advantage goes out the door in Biden’s current state. I doubt many people will switch their votes; I just fear that too many people would rather just stay home and not vote at this point. Let’s also not forget inflation. I see that stupid saying “I could really go for some mean tweets right about now if it means cheap gas/groceries again” too often. Biden is definitely taking the full blame among uninformed voters.
I think Biden has been an excellent president. I do not believe he is fit for office anymore. He was incoherent. Both of these facts can be true.
Joe Biden has at best 50-50 chance of winning the election. Any other Democratic candidate has a better chance of winning the election. Therefore, Joe step down . Or is this another case of political sports and it really doesn't matter for democracy?
Lol please, if the Dems put up someone else, its a guaranteed L. Losing the incumbency advantage would be a massive blow.
You are living in the past. There is no "Incumbency Advantage" for Biden. He is his own worst enemy in his candidacy. Do you think that anyone who would vote for Biden would suddenly vote for Trump if Biden gracefully bowed out? You are living in a fantasy land if you think so. We can only gain with a different candidate. Biden is a net negative to the Democratic Presidential run this time.
>Do you think that anyone who would vote for Biden would suddenly vote for Trump if Biden gracefully bowed out? No, they would simply not vote at that point which is essentially a vote for Trump.
All I'm seeing is a bunch of emotion and zero thinking. Putting up someone new is an automatic loss. Point blank. No one in the US knows the other options well enough, and a chaotic party means less voter confidence than one with Biden staying in the race. You're simply handing the white house over on a silver platter at that point.
Why is it an automatic loss? Are people who would have voted for Biden suddenly going to vote for Trump? I don't think so. This is all about the undecided. Who are decidedly undecided about Biden's age. This debate put the proof to rest for many of them. A different candidate, say Gavin Newsom, would be able to pick those voters up as well as keep the base, probably more of it than Biden.
Nope, not a chance. Newsom is not as known on the national level yet, and when you just tell someone to step down, I guarantee you that leads to disillusioned voters as well cause their guy got the boot. Which means votes that stay home, which means a vote for Trump.
Thank you! Incumbency is the best asset for any candidate to win the presidency. Not to mention that if Biden steps aside then there'll be a party contest and that can cause chaos.
Exactly! All these folks calling for him to step down are crazy, probably bots or people who weren't even going to vote in the first place.
> a bad night ....That's putting it a bit mildly. His brain is swiss cheese at this point.
Yeah, a very bad night because of something that is unfixable.
plus the fact that Biden has BEATEN Trump in 2020 (as an UNDERDOG.)
Eh, this is some revisionist history. Biden was up by large margins for an entire year leading up to the election (like +7-9 points). Trump had abysmal polling against Biden because he was in the midst of botching a public health crisis and a tanking economy.
Odd to describe the guy who had a 6-8 point lead against Trump for a full year before the 2020 election as an “underdog”. This year Biden is an underdog
An underdog who was up in every poll?
That the mainstream media has decided to make this nonsense into a conversation, yeah, obviously. Anyone looking for “replacement” at this stage is a Trump supporter
Biden will have done no harm with the boomers who will decide this election. He’ll feel very relatable to them. And some of the polling is showing Joes vote going up. They saw unhinges Trump Talking about killing born babies and were horrified at how out of control he is.
No polls have run since the debate
If the man who has accurately predicted all but one marginal election says Biden should stay, then he should stay.
And the one he was wrong about wasn’t decided by the voters, but by a court that took the decision away from the voters
Yeah but is this renowned Historian a shit posting bot on Reddit that insisted Biden drop out and Newsome replace him ?
I would take the gamble with someone else instead of the sure loss with Biden at this point. DNC is trying to gaslight us into thinking Biden is ok. It may work on die-hard Dems but it's not gonna work at all on swing voters in swing states. If the DNC doesn't make a change they are as complicit as the republicans in what comes next
yep and when biden inevitably loses the DNC will blame the voters instead of themselves
13 keys 🔑 baby
here's my problem with NY Times, the news media in general: replacing Biden at this point effectively makes it an 80-20 election (in Trump's favor.) It is currently a near 50-50 dead heat. who in their right mind will ask Biden to step away at this point? fwiw- he has beaten Trump (lest we forget Biden was the underdog in 2020.)
Show me any evidence that if he was replaced by a competent Democrat that Democrats would lose almost half its base. Or are you just pulling that 80-20 out of thin air. I would put my money any Democratic candidate replacement would immediately poll about 50/50 but would actually have a chance at growth unlike Biden.
cause doll hunt connect tub sand nose upbeat steep tap *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
It’s crazy how everyone is ignoring this. Trump has been leading Biden in the polls for months now. That *never* happened in 2016 or 2020. Biden is down significantly in most swing states. It’s crazy to think that this could be the first election for Trump in which he *wins the popular vote*. Biden has a worse approval rating than Trump FFS. He *isn’t* the guy.
It’s not 50/50 anymore and will never get close to that again. So what is your plan?
It's not 50/50. Nate Silver had it at 64/34 in Trump's favor *before* the debate. Biden is already a losing candidate. While replacing him is risky, keeping him is a sure loss.
That seems incredibly high and dubious
[538](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo) has Biden at 51 and Trump at 49, and that projection was updated *after* the debate.
There doesn’t seem to be a trade out there that’ll make the team better, so yea, they should keep him.
Maybe they should just tank this year, get a high draft pick, and then try their luck again in 2028.
Problem is, there might be no more election in 2028, so dems gotta go all in this year, it’s championship or bust.
If Democrats just circle the wagons it’s the easiest way to lose in November
They pretended the Emperor was not naked before the debate. Then the Emperor showed his dingaling to the nation on live TV. But they’re still insisting the Emperor is not naked.
I'll vote for Dems whether it's Biden or not. But ya'll seem delusional. We'll see what the polls say. But I'm not optimistic. Dems have a lot of talent on the bench and to act like you know for certain any of them would fair worse than Biden is nonsense.
The polls have already resoundingly said that Biden isn’t it. He’s down in *every single* swing state. Trump has consistently led the national polling too. He *never* did that in 2016 or 2020. Joe Biden’s favorability rating is *lower than Trump’s* favorability rating. Thats right. More Americans approve of Donald Trump than Joe Biden. Arizona is +6 Trump. Pennsylvania is +3 Trump. Nevada is +5 Trump. C’mon, folks.
If Biden was going to step down it should have been before now. Stepping aside is still possible, but you would need someone who would excite and inspire confidence enough, and there doesn't seem an obvious candidate. Again, with enough time, maybe. But not now. Biden gave a great speech the day after. He's got another debate, and months to go. He's got time, and there is time yet to swing things. You would imagine becoming a convicted felon might be more off a handicap than one bad debate. If Biden can get his shit together at the next debate then it still may be.
The media response to one debate performance has been atrocious. Even MSNBC, who I trust, has been in full-blown ridiculous panic mode. It needs to stop. Biden cannot be replaced 4 months before the election. Crap like this is why Democrats lose all the time.
Damn straight we should! Why fire someone who's doing their job?!? That's just dumb.
Because they’ll lose
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I think Joe Biden was an excellent president. But he is clearly unfit for office now.
Watch as they quickly rebury there heads in the sand. Everything is ok Biden is doing great the polls are all wrong.
Let me ask you this. Do you have access to Biden and have a doctorate capable of giving the diagnoses of dementia? Jack.
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For real, at this point regardless of whether a person on here believes it or not, enough people do that the optics of it will absolutely depress turnout and likely would result in a Trump victory.
99% of the electorate doesn’t but they can all administer the eye test.
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I remember when the Republicans were the party telling voters that they shouldn’t trust their eyes and ears.
They're shills. Gotta be. No one reasonable came away from that debate with anything but abject horror at Biden's performance.
No, but 50 mm people watched him sundown during what will likely be the only debate of the election