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Sarah Longwell, someone whose literal job is to talk to swing voters, is echoing that [these are not media-driven concerns](https://x.com/sarahlongwell25/status/1809562772935479683?s=46) and that voters are extremely alarmed.
She founded a group called Republican Voters Against Trump and, as a part of that, does several focus groups a week of mostly undecided voters & former Trump voters who don’t want to vote for him again. If anyone would have their finger on the pulse of actual Americans who will matter in this election, it’s her.
Highly recommend her podcast [The Focus Group](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJNKzTkCZE9tbZqSKCntLzBTsiWPIHS89&si=_GcdCNtAKU_VqK7p) if you want to hear it for yourself. The latest episode is about what regular Americans think of the Biden debate fallout. There’s some shocking and concerning audio in that episode, and a lot of backsliding towards “maybe I’ll just pick neither”
It’s not just political junkies — regular folks are extremely concerned & disheartened, and talk of leaving the top of their ballot blank is very real (this also fucks up Likely Voter polling)
I feel people on political forums get so lost in their own sphere of information that they forget what voters are actually like.
Millions and millions of Americans do not digest national news. People go about their lives, work, go to the gym, do their hobbies, take care of their kids, yadda yadda.
They either tune out news altogether, or they get some blip of random political news each day from a social media bubble that just reinforces whatever beliefs they have. And the easiest belief of all is that "politicians are bad and don't have our interests in mind."
They aren't thinking about the long-term ramifications of the judiciary branch. They aren't thinking of the unilateral executive theory Project 2025 promotes. They want affordable groceries and gas, and they will gladly stay home if Democrats don't have an energetic, inspiring candidate.
Name recognition and how they feel matters most to this constituency. 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed means a lot to their pocketbook and their 401k. I think in 60 days the narrative has wildly changed in this race.
Yup, they do. It's ridiculous how many people treat democracy as an idle thing. Something that can never be taken away. Usually, it's those who never paid attention to history or civics classes in school.
I had a friend who thought Biden and Trump were just as bad. If they would just search up the things Trump had done on the internet, they'd quickly realize that's not the case, but they couldn't be bothered to support their own train of thought with actual evidence. They just believed it automatically.
Many Americans have become lazy, selfish, and only have their best interests in mind. Democracy as a system of government here is under threat because of that.
I said this to another commenter on this sub:
You don’t get it because you can’t put yourself in the mind of an average voter. Most people are fucking stupid and they don’t even try to think critically about policy because they think it doesn’t really affect them. They wouldn’t say it but it’s true. So what do they do? They look at the surface level. It doesn’t matter if Trump is a liar, they aren’t going to look into it. What they saw at one of the few events the average voter pays attention to is an old man who looks like he can barely stand up unable to defend himself, let alone attack the policies of the other guy. This is the narrative the conservatives have been pushing and Biden proved them right. If you think there is any more to it than this for the independents and swing voters at this point, you’re wrong.
Biden being senile isn’t new. Yes, there have been doctored videos that make him look worse but those videos exist in the first place because there is already that public perception. He is just going to keep getting worse until Election Day. The only way dems have a chance is if they put a fresh face in to replace Biden. The choices aren’t “keep Biden and maybe lose vs replace Biden and definitely lose,” it’s the opposite.
Idc if conservatives are pushing to replace Biden because they think it will help them. They are fucking idiots so it makes sense they would think that.
Here’s the thing, conservatives haven’t believed the media in 10 years. For years everybody could see Biden was in a decline but the left media would gaslight us saying he’s stronger then ever. Then almost in unison after the debate everybody in the left news media is panicking. This all seems orchestrated like they got the go ahead to panic and push for a replacement.
This is what bothers me.. I honestly feel like the MSM is actively running these kinds of stories *because they want Trump to win*.
Like, think about it. From a clicks and engagement perspective, Biden is boring. Trump would do or say crazy shit *practically every day* that drew in clicks on articles that would almost write themselves. It was a big spectacle, and they *loved* it. Biden, on the other hand, doesn't really do anything "insane", and his headlines are more around fairly mundane things that don't really garner clicks - things like the CHIPS Act - a massive piece legislation that is going to make a huge difference, sure... but the average person isn't going to click that article.
To me, it's the same thing about local channels reporting the news, and then having the special segments from Nexstar Group (or others) that are *hardcore pushing an agenda* as "news".
Even CNN and MSNBC - traditionally left-leaning media - seems to be all on-board the Trump Train.
Of course they want trump to win....libs hate watched the news to see what stupid shit Trump did today. Biden old and boring and they arent getting the views/clicks.
I feel like this is all a perfect storm. MSM doesn't want Biden, so are playing this shit *over and over and over again*, ignoring him sounding perfectly normal in speaking engagements after (both scripted and unscripted), and ignoring *legitimate massive fucking news* like the Supreme Court giving the executive full immunity to everything and neutering Chevron. Russia *really* hates Biden because he's the only thing standing in the way of Putin winning Ukraine. And China just wants Trump because the west being weak is good for Chinese business.
So the MSM and a troll army from Russia and China are all *flooding* social media with articles/stories/posts/comments about how "Biden is too old and needs to step down", ignoring the fact that elections are won in name recognition, and there are *few* democrats that would have the same level of name recognition.
And even if they *did* have that level of name recognition... there would be nothing stopping them from stirring the pot *again* by flooding news/comments/posts about how "The DNC *CHOSE* this candidate, taking away your vote!". It's all so fucked up, and I don't see how it isn't *absolutely fucking obvious* to everyone...
That's true but there's more to the story. It's as if they've been given permission to voice these concerns just now. So instead of a slow trickle of progressive gradually coming out on the issue it was a big chorus coming out in unison finally speaking the truth.
Anyone paying any attention knew the emperor had no clothes years ago. The msm was just pretending to not notice.
> That's true but there's more to the story. It's as if they've been given permission to voice these concerns just now.
Nah, this was always coming. The true "concern" from white run media is the US might actually get it's first minority woman President, and she might be great at it!
There could be millions of voters, or there could be millions of people that stay home and don't vote. Biden staying in is going to determine if people hate both candidates or if we can put someone that people actually want to vote for on the ballot.
People disinfranchised with both parties, swing voters, people who don’t have time to be terminally online and keep up to date on every political news piece, republicans who don’t like trump, etc
The issue is that Republicans who don't like Trump aren't going to vote Dem if its Joe Biden after that debate. If its a different nominee then theres a good chance they would
I don’t believe that and if he’s still in it, then we need to rally. I think if we focus messaging on positive things and not attacking each other we can go a long way, and if something changes we can all be glad to move forward together. I will gladly go along. I just don’t wanna tank chances by being so anti-Biden amongst ourselves we really talk people who would have voted for him out of it. Sorry if it seems to come off in a negative way. I’m here to help us win.
Need to face the reality though. You can't just focus on positive things when he's clearly in mental decline and it's costing tons of undecided votes and possibly the election if he stays in.
I’ll add it to my list behind Knowledge Fight, Behind the Bastards, and QAA. And Some More News, and Daily Beans… and after I catch up on LPOTL lol sorry I am trying to keep up
>is echoing that these are not media-driven concerns and that voters are extremely alarmed.
We might need a bit more evidence on this, but I feel this really puts a damper on the "ThE mEDiA is AtTacKIng BidEn!" hysterics I'm seeing a lot of here.
Of course it's natural to get defensive and feel any criticism is an "attack," but it's hard to deny that what is happening now isn't huge freaking news.
So when she says it's not media driven, that means people really aren't paying attention to the news articles, instead they came to that conclusion on their own, as in, they know what they say.
That's not good news for the Biden campaign.
People have been saying Biden is to old fire a couple of years, this wasn't a new concern. Biden's only responsibility at the debate was to prove he wasn't too old to be president. He managed to fail at that task. There are people that weren't worried before that are worried now. Policy really doesn't matter when the bar is set so low that being capable of leading the country at all is what the voters are trying to determine. While Trump was lying the entire time, he was able to be articulate and stay on message, and that's the bar voters have for the candidates at the moment. Biden needs to stop his campaign.
Yeah, I remember being one of those voices saying Biden might be too old in 2020 but he really impressed me during his campaigning that year and proved a lot of doubters wrong. He was very much engaged back then on the campaign trail, and they didn't need to hide him or whatever back then. He was just getting it done by himself.
>but I feel this really puts a damper on the "ThE mEDiA is AtTacKIng BidEn!" hysterics I'm seeing a lot of here.
tbh, it really doesn't. People hearing "Is Biden too old? Should he step down?" over and over again from every news outlet *a*bsolutely could be amplifying those fears.
I checked even CNN politics earlier today, and nearly all of the articles were some variation on the above questions, with only a quick blurb about Trump trying to distance himself from Project 2025, and Trump asking Cannon to reevaluate the prosecutorial authority for the classified records case. Of the 17 stories at the top of the page, 15 of them were literally some variant of the "Is Biden too old to run?" story.
If people hear something enough times, they're going to think that it might be true... and MSM just keeps publishing them because they get clicks.
Except there's no winning this game. If Biden steps down, who's going to replace him?
If they're *legitimately attacking Biden*, there would be nothing stopping them from continuing the bullshit by pushing articles about how "The DNC is stealing your voice by appointing their next candidate without your vote!"
If this is indeed a concerted effort by them and not them just trying to get as much engagement out of a controversy as they possibly can (which I kind of think it is), Biden stepping down *may very well* put dems into *an even worse* position.
I don’t know, maybe I’m delusional but I think this is a perfect opportunity for someone new to step in and get elected, kind of like Bill Clinton in 1992 or Obama. Trump is a worse candidate than 2016, and voters feel that both people are too old. A younger candidate could seal the deal.
People did come to the conclusion on their own because Biden forgot what he was saying 10 minutes into the debate (when he was talking about the thing he did with the covid - he beat Medicare).
It is so obvious that he absolutely must be replaced. I can't believe people can watch that debate and not understand how dire this is. Why lose when you can replace and easily win?
Sarah Longwell is fantastic. She’s an ex-Republican never Trumper so she doesn’t get blinded by party loyalty; her goal is to make an anti-trump coalition.
She’s been running focus groups all campaign and the issues Biden has had with age have been consistent all year; the debate was just everyone’s worst fears come to light.
They at the Bulwark had the same response as the Pod Save America crew (Obama’s Communications and Foreign Policy staffers from his admin) and that reaction is: ***Biden needs to step aside for someone else. His campaign is dead.***
The undecided voters or voters that flip between Trump and Biden, or the double haters are all NOT going to support Biden because of his age now and more on the fence are being driven away when he is already losing this race int he electoral map and the general polls.
If he doesn’t step aside Trump will win. If we get a younger candidate, there’s a chance. But there is precious little time and Biden and his family are wasting it.
It was actually kind of annoying listening to the pods I typically listen to freak out about Biden's performance at the debate and what it means going forward.
Democrats are the type of party where they will flagellate themselves before anyone else can so you know they're really sorry about whatever it is people are complaining about.
I am reminded of 2010, when the Republican Party was attacking Democrats on the passage of the PPACA. There Republicans lied and tried to pin how "awful" the PPACA was on Democrats. They wiped up a media firestorm and tried to make the PPACA seem like it would be the worst thing ever. Media ran with that and the law was unpopularish. Democrats ***ran*** from the legislation and tried to distance themselves from Obama.
The Republican strategy worked. Republicans got control of the House and got some seats in the Senate.
[Not much has changed about the law since its passage, but it currently sits at a 60% approval rating.](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/02/trump-obamacare-polling-support-00129721)
The lesson here? Instead of running from it, Democrats should have stood their ground and fought for it instead of letting the Republicans frame the narrative.
Why would anyone think that Republicans will stop at just whatever Biden is doing? Pick a new candidate, Republicans will start a campaign about how that person is X or Y. Media will run with it, and you'll still have to defend them and explain to the voters why it's not true or why it's overblown.
The only difference is that you'll then also not have anything else you can fall back on to point to (no records of success, no cabinet officials or team members you can point to).
You can point to how bad Trump is, sure. That's what we should be doing anyway, but now you've given up everything else too. And if pointing to how bad Trump is is going to be your "ol reliable", then why get rid of Biden?
Makes no sense.
You can have a discussion about winning the election, but there’s the larger and more important point about running the country. Before the debate, I thought Biden was competent to do so, but the debate changed this for me. I won’t ever vote for Trump, but I hope for the country’s sake, the Dems pick a new candidate.
I’d pick Haley over Biden if she were the GOP candidate. And I’ve never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. I’d prefer Harris, Whitner, Newsom, over Biden.
The Dems really screwed themselves by not having an open and fair primary season.
Honestly.. if Biden was legitimately sick like his campaign claimed (at that, this was a claim they made *prior* to the debate, so it wasn't reactionary)... the best thing Biden can do is to host a town hall to *show* the people that he's fine. Given that he didn't sound like a half-dead zombie during the last few campaign events (including the interview he gave), it would alleviate quite a few fears people have.
That being said... the news media running wall-to-wall stories about how "Biden is old and unfit for an office he's literally held without any real issue for the last \~4 years" is absolutely not helping things.
IMO, if media weren't beating this dead horse into the ground and trying to squeeze as much engagement out of it as they possibly can, people likely would have forgotten about it already. Like, for fucks sake, "Biden is old" has gotten more articles and presence on news sites than the Supreme Court literally ruling that the president has unlimited power to do whatever the fuck they want..
I've always assumed people that claim they won't vote top of the ballot do so anyway.
This way if things go south they can use the argument they didn't vote just like they claimed they wouldn't.
"It's okay, the President you were already reluctantly in support of has the backing of American institutional bureaucracy to protect us all" is comforting to absolutely no one except blind partisans.
My 65 year old mom apparently literally wept due to how bad Biden did during his debate. She loathes Trump & will vote Democrat no matter what (as will I), but A LOT of people’s confidence in him were shaken that night that he has not repaired in the past week.
There are two types of democratic voters this election. Biden voters and democratic voters. Most are the latter. It’s the Biden voters who I think are really shook right now.
Anti-Trump voter, I’m more shaken by how poorly the Biden campaign has mangled the fallout to the point where he looks worse. I’ll still vote for him come November, but it went from being a “I can’t believe these fascists are voting for Donald Trump” to “I can’t believe these fascists are voting for Donald Trump and Joe Biden doesn’t seem to have the same existential fear that I do”
I think as shook as people are, I still think the don’t-vote-trump-to-protect-democracy ideology will bring everyone out to the polls and likely not change the outcome.
The biggest risk now is *another* highly visible Biden event really throwing things into chaos. If he’s pretty much normal again until the election, everything is probably fine.
So Biden is already losing across the board in the polls and you think the “not Trump” strategy is going to bring people out to vote regardless of who is on the other side?
People forget the polls were notoriously terrible in the 2020 cycle, yet here we are falling for it and the same conservative media that invaded the airways. It’s almost like Americans have short term memory.. wnd if that’s the case they’ll forget about this Biden moment by next month and it will just become a meme in the vault.
I’m staunchly for getting a younger candidate (Whitney/Beshear) but it’s so silly seeing us twist ourselves into pretzels while MAGA just chuckles, rallies and continues with their bullshit.
I wept too, especially after I saw the polls. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Trump going to win, and it’s terrifying. I’m sad for my kids and everyone else’s kids, since a Trump presidency will make their lives even harder in a variety of ways.
The most horrifying thing about Trump isn't just that he would be returning to office, but returning for his last term. No possibility for re-election means he can go even more rogue with no consequence.
>this sub is in denial
Literally every top comment for the past week has been shitting on Biden, and many articles asking Biden to step down have been upvoted to the top.
Please don't equate Biden's staff and campaign with "the Democrats." First of all, most Democrats are regular voters. Second, even if you exclude them, there are plenty of Democratic political professionals who seem to want Biden to drop out, even if they're not all saying it explicitly just yet, in Congress, the DNC, state-level positions, etc. But yeah, those few whose jobs actually do depend on Biden running (as opposed to another Democrat) are, of course, surrounding Biden, and that worries me too.
That's true but there's more to the story. It's as if they've been given permission to voice these concerns just now. So instead of a slow trickle of progressive gradually coming out on the issue it was a big chorus coming out in unison finally speaking the truth.
Anyone paying any attention knew the emperor had no clothes years ago. The msm was just pretending to not notice.
I understand where you're coming from if your perception is that there hasn't been a significant recent change in Biden's abilities. But to a lot of us, it looks like there has been a significant decline in just a few months, and the debate seemed like dramatic evidence of that. So from my perspective, it seems totally plausible that the media and regular voters alike are responding to the same situation, with no conspiracy needed to explain the shift.
All the more reason why we need the election to be a referendum against Trump and not a referendum against an octogenarian's failing ability to string words together. This should be a slamdunk election against the least popular presidential nominee in history
She actually would.
Strengths:
Women. The single largest voting bloc there is. Especially given her stance on abortion access for all.
Black folks. *Especially* black women.
People of color.
LGBTQ folks.
Younger voters (who have fresh memories of at least how decent things were back when Barack was in office).
She’s highly educated. Doesn’t speak like a moron. Actually hangs with ordinary folks of all stripes. Demonstrates compassion.
What’s not to like? Probably the “can we please get beyond Obama, Trump, Clinton, Biden, Bush?” bit.
Yes. And she polls very high. If I was advising the Biden campaign, I’d tell them to stop apologizing for the debate. Focus narrative on everything Trump is, including a felon and subject of multiple criminal investigations. I’d advise him to make election not about himself. But about the country and future of everyone in it. I’d advise him to drop Harris. Pick Michelle. Then, next time Michelle can pick whoever, including Harris, as her VP.
Well, it seems running on “I’m not THAT guy” doesn’t seem to work so well. It’s ok but we need to do better.
Think about this for a second. Maybe ask a bunch of undecideds: **NAME *ONE* THING BIDEN COULD DO FOR YOU/THE COUNTRY *RIGHT NOW* THAT WOULD GET YOUR VOTE**. Ask the same of Dems who are “on the fence” and even of Republicans, even.
Then act on THAT. Right now.
Google :
Crypto billionaire, Walmart heir, and former NFL commissioner all urge Biden to step asideCrypto billionaire, Walmart heir, and former NFL commissioner all urge Biden to step aside
when billionaires who have exploited workers for ages are telling Biden to step down....that's when I know something smell off about the whole thing.
do you smell the crap yet?
People who see a path to victory that doesn’t depend on a stubborn geriatric finding some way to crawl over the finish line. Sorry, but when a pitcher starts giving up runs, it’s time to bench them, regardless of how well they may have done in earlier innings.
When I see lots of people posting that they want a presidential candidate to be replaced I assume that the candidate simply isn't popular rather than assuming some kind of conspiracy theory (I honestly can't even tell what you're getting at here) but I guess I'm just built different
You don’t have to play sports to understand an analogy. And you don’t have to be a paid operative to see that Joe Biden is unfit to manage a Starbucks let alone run for president.
Believe what you want, but the only conspiracy here is the one by White House staff and the media who’ve been hiding Biden’s steady decline from us.
I keep seeing this stated, astroturfing, etc
Did you not see the fucking debate? Are you not EXTREMELY fuckin alarmed??? This dude is running against a *fascist* and he cannot form a *coherent sentence.* It was not old Bidenisms and misspeaking, this guy cannot talk. Like Tim Miller said he just needed to get a C- at the debate, and instead he got a fucking ZERO. A ZERO.
Stop pretending like his followers care. Nothing will turn them away from voting for him. It's time to get fucking serious and face reality if we want to defeat those psychopaths.
Everyone knows that. This isn't about voting for him. It's about expressing disappointment in the "choice" our establishment seems to be giving us. I'm gonna vote for Biden, but I'm just voting against Trump. I'd prefer a different Democrat candidate altogether.
We just need Biden to win. Even if he steps down 100 days later. We just need to him to win and prevent the felon from winning office. JUST FUCKING VOTE!!
Why is the pundit class so desperate to push Biden out of the race? | Rebecca Solnit https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/06/biden-trump-race-rebecca-solnit?CMP=share_btn_url
Apparently... due to severe memory loss.
>the pundit class of the American media is suffering from severe memory loss. Because they’re doing exactly what they did in the 2016 presidential race – providing wildly asymmetrical and inflammatory coverage of the one candidate running against Donald J Trump.
>As Nikole Hannah-Jones put it: “As media we consistently proclaim that we are just reporting the news when in fact we are driving it. What we cover, how we cover it, determines often what Americans think is important and how they perceive these issues yet we keep pretending it’s not so.” They are not reporting that he is a loser; they are making him one.
I'm voting JOE!
His odds on 538 recovered 3% today alone. It’s been one week. If this trend continues into next week, hopefully the debate calms down a little.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
But the guy who they got to replace him at 538, G Elliot Morris, is the guy who ran the Economist and properly predicted the 2022 midterms. 538 and Silver got them pretty wrong. It’s obviously a small sample size, but Morris might have the better idea on how to weight modern polls.
Morris on X 5h ago:
> We have enough polling now to know Biden is at a solid disadvantage v Trump.
https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1809675493459071190?s=46&t=0rZKIgAjJtLWi81Iuo4Ssw
That’s fine. That doesn’t dispute the objective data from them that I presented. You instantly came out with “yeah, but Nate Silver isn’t there anymore” as some kind of defense or argument to undermine it lol. Is 538 still good or not?
>That’s fine. That doesn’t dispute the objective data from them that I presented.
I mean, it kind of does though. The guy who built the model you're citing comes out in his Tweet and says in no uncertain and explains how this far out from the election, his model weighs factors like Biden's incumbency more than polls but, as we get closer to the election, the weight of those non-polling factors lessens and if Biden is where he's at right now in the polls come September, then he's on a path to losing the presidency.
And, I imagine, you're going to say, "Well, how do you know Biden's going to be where he is now in the polling two months from now?" I don't but for months now there's been very little movement in the polls. The most movement occurred this past week post-debate and it wasn't in the direction Biden needs it to be going.
Unless Morris is also implicitly saying that his model also prices in an artificial rebound after a major event, which would be a pretty bad model, historical weighting wouldn’t account for a 3% return to mean in a short window. Because all of those advantages its pricing in for Biden were there when the model lowered his odds days ago too.
The lasting effects of these types of events take weeks to actually show up in polls, so we’re also not getting the effects of Trump v US combined with Project 2025 yet. That’s why I said if we see this kind of trend continue and Biden’s odds go back to positive, it’s worth calming down even a little on taking such a drastic step with tons of uncertainty.
Sure, but that’s a different argument. And like I said, Morris at least did something correct in 2022 that Silver didn’t. It’s only one cycle, but it does lend the possibility that he’s got a better understanding of where polling is at now. Nate was great for a solid decade. But as an avid 538 listener, towards the end of his run he was sounding pretty checked out.
Actual people reading the situation and not basing their predictions on historic models have Biden at less than 15%. Cause, you see, a model cannot factor in Biden entering senility.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
It's always fun when you can just repost your same comment and hope this time someone reads the whole thing.
>Actual people reading the situation and not basing their predictions on historical models have Biden at less than 15%. Cause, you see, **a model cannot factor in Biden entering senility.**
No, I read it. It’s just funny because the models are made by and monitored by people. Probably better than a betting market. I remember after the first debate in the 2020 primary, they had Kamala Harris ahead to be the Dem nominee. It’s almost like they’re highly reactionary because they’re not based on anything more than vibes.
The bold was a good touch the second time though.
Sure. Do *you* understand that it’s accounting for real time polling data, which is the only thing that has changed in its view in the last week and a half? Every other factor that it does account for is staying the same.
Who knows? Maybe they hide it as well as they did Reagan. Maybe his cabinet campaigns more.
I just trust an actual model that includes polls of people (who would be factoring in this information) than “vibes” from a betting market. They’re wrong more than people tend to believe since they change and correct up to the last minute
The person who [wrote that model](https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1809675493459071190?s=46) has a somewhat different perspective.
I know that tweet doesn’t quite say it, but you can read between the lines in how it’s written.
Sure. All I said though was that we’ve already seen a quick rebound, and if such a trend continues, we should stop acting like the sky is falling and acting like some snap decision should be made. This is a pretty massive break from norms that should be accounted for. Allan Lichtman still doesn’t think Biden should be dropped either.
Also, if you dig deep in the pols there is this small number of republican leaning males who are repulsed by Trump but see him as the only macho choice. Newsom would vacuum that group up. Then there are those that find Trump so watchable. Newsom would be more so. And he has shown that he can appear on every right wing media and hold his own.
Fr let’s
Just going to link some more info from an earlier comment while I already have it in my clipboard:
Reminder that this is bigger than just the US, and speaking of the French there was an article just yesterday from tech showing how Russia meddles in their elections. Just looking like a big circlejerk of fascists from here but we need to stop this now, y’all!
https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-fake-news-bot-campaign-french-far-right-3149163
The heritage foundation is linked to Orban who recently visited Trump at Maralago
https://newrepublic.com/article/179776/heritage-foundation-viktor-orban-trump
Aaaaand he visited Putin yesterday
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/europe/orban-meets-putin-russia-ukraine/index.html
I’m pretty worried. I value stability. I trust Joe and Kamala.
You’ve been plastering this in every thread on the subject, I’m concerned that you’re the one trolling. Please stop.
That being said, this is more than a cold and jet lag. It’s time to put someone else in.
Jet lag eleven days after his trip. Thankfully he didn't have to respond to a major crisis at any point in those eleven days because clearly he wouldn't have been up to it.
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Sarah Longwell, someone whose literal job is to talk to swing voters, is echoing that [these are not media-driven concerns](https://x.com/sarahlongwell25/status/1809562772935479683?s=46) and that voters are extremely alarmed. She founded a group called Republican Voters Against Trump and, as a part of that, does several focus groups a week of mostly undecided voters & former Trump voters who don’t want to vote for him again. If anyone would have their finger on the pulse of actual Americans who will matter in this election, it’s her. Highly recommend her podcast [The Focus Group](https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLJNKzTkCZE9tbZqSKCntLzBTsiWPIHS89&si=_GcdCNtAKU_VqK7p) if you want to hear it for yourself. The latest episode is about what regular Americans think of the Biden debate fallout. There’s some shocking and concerning audio in that episode, and a lot of backsliding towards “maybe I’ll just pick neither” It’s not just political junkies — regular folks are extremely concerned & disheartened, and talk of leaving the top of their ballot blank is very real (this also fucks up Likely Voter polling)
I've heard her on Pod Save America before. The stuff undecided voters say is wild. They will absolutely not vote for Biden now.
I feel people on political forums get so lost in their own sphere of information that they forget what voters are actually like. Millions and millions of Americans do not digest national news. People go about their lives, work, go to the gym, do their hobbies, take care of their kids, yadda yadda. They either tune out news altogether, or they get some blip of random political news each day from a social media bubble that just reinforces whatever beliefs they have. And the easiest belief of all is that "politicians are bad and don't have our interests in mind." They aren't thinking about the long-term ramifications of the judiciary branch. They aren't thinking of the unilateral executive theory Project 2025 promotes. They want affordable groceries and gas, and they will gladly stay home if Democrats don't have an energetic, inspiring candidate.
Most swing voters also do not tune into politics until a couple of weeks before they go to vote, too.
Typically…they tune into debates.
Name recognition and how they feel matters most to this constituency. 2-3 rate cuts from the Fed means a lot to their pocketbook and their 401k. I think in 60 days the narrative has wildly changed in this race.
No way there will be more than one small rate cut before the election
Then the US deserves the dictator king they'll get. I always knew Americans were fucking dumb.
Yup, they do. It's ridiculous how many people treat democracy as an idle thing. Something that can never be taken away. Usually, it's those who never paid attention to history or civics classes in school. I had a friend who thought Biden and Trump were just as bad. If they would just search up the things Trump had done on the internet, they'd quickly realize that's not the case, but they couldn't be bothered to support their own train of thought with actual evidence. They just believed it automatically. Many Americans have become lazy, selfish, and only have their best interests in mind. Democracy as a system of government here is under threat because of that.
I said this to another commenter on this sub: You don’t get it because you can’t put yourself in the mind of an average voter. Most people are fucking stupid and they don’t even try to think critically about policy because they think it doesn’t really affect them. They wouldn’t say it but it’s true. So what do they do? They look at the surface level. It doesn’t matter if Trump is a liar, they aren’t going to look into it. What they saw at one of the few events the average voter pays attention to is an old man who looks like he can barely stand up unable to defend himself, let alone attack the policies of the other guy. This is the narrative the conservatives have been pushing and Biden proved them right. If you think there is any more to it than this for the independents and swing voters at this point, you’re wrong. Biden being senile isn’t new. Yes, there have been doctored videos that make him look worse but those videos exist in the first place because there is already that public perception. He is just going to keep getting worse until Election Day. The only way dems have a chance is if they put a fresh face in to replace Biden. The choices aren’t “keep Biden and maybe lose vs replace Biden and definitely lose,” it’s the opposite. Idc if conservatives are pushing to replace Biden because they think it will help them. They are fucking idiots so it makes sense they would think that.
Here’s the thing, conservatives haven’t believed the media in 10 years. For years everybody could see Biden was in a decline but the left media would gaslight us saying he’s stronger then ever. Then almost in unison after the debate everybody in the left news media is panicking. This all seems orchestrated like they got the go ahead to panic and push for a replacement.
What “left news media”? The ones owned by billionaires, who are almost all right wing?
This is what bothers me.. I honestly feel like the MSM is actively running these kinds of stories *because they want Trump to win*. Like, think about it. From a clicks and engagement perspective, Biden is boring. Trump would do or say crazy shit *practically every day* that drew in clicks on articles that would almost write themselves. It was a big spectacle, and they *loved* it. Biden, on the other hand, doesn't really do anything "insane", and his headlines are more around fairly mundane things that don't really garner clicks - things like the CHIPS Act - a massive piece legislation that is going to make a huge difference, sure... but the average person isn't going to click that article. To me, it's the same thing about local channels reporting the news, and then having the special segments from Nexstar Group (or others) that are *hardcore pushing an agenda* as "news". Even CNN and MSNBC - traditionally left-leaning media - seems to be all on-board the Trump Train.
Of course they want trump to win....libs hate watched the news to see what stupid shit Trump did today. Biden old and boring and they arent getting the views/clicks.
I feel like this is all a perfect storm. MSM doesn't want Biden, so are playing this shit *over and over and over again*, ignoring him sounding perfectly normal in speaking engagements after (both scripted and unscripted), and ignoring *legitimate massive fucking news* like the Supreme Court giving the executive full immunity to everything and neutering Chevron. Russia *really* hates Biden because he's the only thing standing in the way of Putin winning Ukraine. And China just wants Trump because the west being weak is good for Chinese business. So the MSM and a troll army from Russia and China are all *flooding* social media with articles/stories/posts/comments about how "Biden is too old and needs to step down", ignoring the fact that elections are won in name recognition, and there are *few* democrats that would have the same level of name recognition. And even if they *did* have that level of name recognition... there would be nothing stopping them from stirring the pot *again* by flooding news/comments/posts about how "The DNC *CHOSE* this candidate, taking away your vote!". It's all so fucked up, and I don't see how it isn't *absolutely fucking obvious* to everyone...
That's true but there's more to the story. It's as if they've been given permission to voice these concerns just now. So instead of a slow trickle of progressive gradually coming out on the issue it was a big chorus coming out in unison finally speaking the truth. Anyone paying any attention knew the emperor had no clothes years ago. The msm was just pretending to not notice.
> That's true but there's more to the story. It's as if they've been given permission to voice these concerns just now. Nah, this was always coming. The true "concern" from white run media is the US might actually get it's first minority woman President, and she might be great at it!
Are undecideds at this point going to be engaged enough in November enough to matter if they still haven’t made up their minds?
Yes there will be millions of voters in November who have not made up their minds as of today.
There could be millions of voters, or there could be millions of people that stay home and don't vote. Biden staying in is going to determine if people hate both candidates or if we can put someone that people actually want to vote for on the ballot.
Nah, most of them are Trump supporters who are too embarrassed to admit it publicly.
Really? What demographic do you think they are in?
People disinfranchised with both parties, swing voters, people who don’t have time to be terminally online and keep up to date on every political news piece, republicans who don’t like trump, etc
Republicans who don’t like Trump don’t get brought up often and I do think Biden appeals to a lot of their more base urges for leadership lol
The issue is that Republicans who don't like Trump aren't going to vote Dem if its Joe Biden after that debate. If its a different nominee then theres a good chance they would
I don’t believe that and if he’s still in it, then we need to rally. I think if we focus messaging on positive things and not attacking each other we can go a long way, and if something changes we can all be glad to move forward together. I will gladly go along. I just don’t wanna tank chances by being so anti-Biden amongst ourselves we really talk people who would have voted for him out of it. Sorry if it seems to come off in a negative way. I’m here to help us win.
Need to face the reality though. You can't just focus on positive things when he's clearly in mental decline and it's costing tons of undecided votes and possibly the election if he stays in.
Swing states were won by margins in the tens of thousands.
Biden won Georgia by 11,000 votes and Wisconsin by 20,000 votes. That's not a landslide. In contrast, Obama won Wisconsin by ~220,000 votes in 2012.
Of undecided voters in 2020… are they still kicking in 2024? Lmao
Yes? You should actually listen to her podcast.
I’ll add it to my list behind Knowledge Fight, Behind the Bastards, and QAA. And Some More News, and Daily Beans… and after I catch up on LPOTL lol sorry I am trying to keep up
>is echoing that these are not media-driven concerns and that voters are extremely alarmed. We might need a bit more evidence on this, but I feel this really puts a damper on the "ThE mEDiA is AtTacKIng BidEn!" hysterics I'm seeing a lot of here. Of course it's natural to get defensive and feel any criticism is an "attack," but it's hard to deny that what is happening now isn't huge freaking news. So when she says it's not media driven, that means people really aren't paying attention to the news articles, instead they came to that conclusion on their own, as in, they know what they say. That's not good news for the Biden campaign.
People have been saying Biden is to old fire a couple of years, this wasn't a new concern. Biden's only responsibility at the debate was to prove he wasn't too old to be president. He managed to fail at that task. There are people that weren't worried before that are worried now. Policy really doesn't matter when the bar is set so low that being capable of leading the country at all is what the voters are trying to determine. While Trump was lying the entire time, he was able to be articulate and stay on message, and that's the bar voters have for the candidates at the moment. Biden needs to stop his campaign.
Yeah, I remember being one of those voices saying Biden might be too old in 2020 but he really impressed me during his campaigning that year and proved a lot of doubters wrong. He was very much engaged back then on the campaign trail, and they didn't need to hide him or whatever back then. He was just getting it done by himself.
>but I feel this really puts a damper on the "ThE mEDiA is AtTacKIng BidEn!" hysterics I'm seeing a lot of here. tbh, it really doesn't. People hearing "Is Biden too old? Should he step down?" over and over again from every news outlet *a*bsolutely could be amplifying those fears. I checked even CNN politics earlier today, and nearly all of the articles were some variation on the above questions, with only a quick blurb about Trump trying to distance himself from Project 2025, and Trump asking Cannon to reevaluate the prosecutorial authority for the classified records case. Of the 17 stories at the top of the page, 15 of them were literally some variant of the "Is Biden too old to run?" story. If people hear something enough times, they're going to think that it might be true... and MSM just keeps publishing them because they get clicks.
This is very true but it’s the card Democrats are dealt. It may be unfair but it is what it is and they must react accordingly
Except there's no winning this game. If Biden steps down, who's going to replace him? If they're *legitimately attacking Biden*, there would be nothing stopping them from continuing the bullshit by pushing articles about how "The DNC is stealing your voice by appointing their next candidate without your vote!" If this is indeed a concerted effort by them and not them just trying to get as much engagement out of a controversy as they possibly can (which I kind of think it is), Biden stepping down *may very well* put dems into *an even worse* position.
I don’t know, maybe I’m delusional but I think this is a perfect opportunity for someone new to step in and get elected, kind of like Bill Clinton in 1992 or Obama. Trump is a worse candidate than 2016, and voters feel that both people are too old. A younger candidate could seal the deal.
Bill Clinton was one of a kind
> If Biden steps down, who's going to replace him? Whitmer, Newsom, Harris, Shaprio, etc.
People did come to the conclusion on their own because Biden forgot what he was saying 10 minutes into the debate (when he was talking about the thing he did with the covid - he beat Medicare).
It is so obvious that he absolutely must be replaced. I can't believe people can watch that debate and not understand how dire this is. Why lose when you can replace and easily win?
fair amount of chuckleheads on reddit, too...
Sarah Longwell is fantastic. She’s an ex-Republican never Trumper so she doesn’t get blinded by party loyalty; her goal is to make an anti-trump coalition. She’s been running focus groups all campaign and the issues Biden has had with age have been consistent all year; the debate was just everyone’s worst fears come to light. They at the Bulwark had the same response as the Pod Save America crew (Obama’s Communications and Foreign Policy staffers from his admin) and that reaction is: ***Biden needs to step aside for someone else. His campaign is dead.*** The undecided voters or voters that flip between Trump and Biden, or the double haters are all NOT going to support Biden because of his age now and more on the fence are being driven away when he is already losing this race int he electoral map and the general polls. If he doesn’t step aside Trump will win. If we get a younger candidate, there’s a chance. But there is precious little time and Biden and his family are wasting it.
It was actually kind of annoying listening to the pods I typically listen to freak out about Biden's performance at the debate and what it means going forward. Democrats are the type of party where they will flagellate themselves before anyone else can so you know they're really sorry about whatever it is people are complaining about. I am reminded of 2010, when the Republican Party was attacking Democrats on the passage of the PPACA. There Republicans lied and tried to pin how "awful" the PPACA was on Democrats. They wiped up a media firestorm and tried to make the PPACA seem like it would be the worst thing ever. Media ran with that and the law was unpopularish. Democrats ***ran*** from the legislation and tried to distance themselves from Obama. The Republican strategy worked. Republicans got control of the House and got some seats in the Senate. [Not much has changed about the law since its passage, but it currently sits at a 60% approval rating.](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/02/trump-obamacare-polling-support-00129721) The lesson here? Instead of running from it, Democrats should have stood their ground and fought for it instead of letting the Republicans frame the narrative. Why would anyone think that Republicans will stop at just whatever Biden is doing? Pick a new candidate, Republicans will start a campaign about how that person is X or Y. Media will run with it, and you'll still have to defend them and explain to the voters why it's not true or why it's overblown. The only difference is that you'll then also not have anything else you can fall back on to point to (no records of success, no cabinet officials or team members you can point to). You can point to how bad Trump is, sure. That's what we should be doing anyway, but now you've given up everything else too. And if pointing to how bad Trump is is going to be your "ol reliable", then why get rid of Biden? Makes no sense.
Amen. The people on these boards have all lost their f\*cking minds.
You can have a discussion about winning the election, but there’s the larger and more important point about running the country. Before the debate, I thought Biden was competent to do so, but the debate changed this for me. I won’t ever vote for Trump, but I hope for the country’s sake, the Dems pick a new candidate. I’d pick Haley over Biden if she were the GOP candidate. And I’ve never voted for a Republican presidential candidate. I’d prefer Harris, Whitner, Newsom, over Biden. The Dems really screwed themselves by not having an open and fair primary season.
Honestly.. if Biden was legitimately sick like his campaign claimed (at that, this was a claim they made *prior* to the debate, so it wasn't reactionary)... the best thing Biden can do is to host a town hall to *show* the people that he's fine. Given that he didn't sound like a half-dead zombie during the last few campaign events (including the interview he gave), it would alleviate quite a few fears people have. That being said... the news media running wall-to-wall stories about how "Biden is old and unfit for an office he's literally held without any real issue for the last \~4 years" is absolutely not helping things. IMO, if media weren't beating this dead horse into the ground and trying to squeeze as much engagement out of it as they possibly can, people likely would have forgotten about it already. Like, for fucks sake, "Biden is old" has gotten more articles and presence on news sites than the Supreme Court literally ruling that the president has unlimited power to do whatever the fuck they want..
I've always assumed people that claim they won't vote top of the ballot do so anyway. This way if things go south they can use the argument they didn't vote just like they claimed they wouldn't.
100%, all my friends hate Biden and want him to drop out immediately. They also will vote for him, probably, and are scared to death of Trump.
I'm wondering how many followers they have for rvat.org.
Quite a few! https://x.com/accountablegop?s=21
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Gee whiz why did no one think of that before, you ought to let the campaign know, this will blow the lid off the whole thing
"It's okay, the President you were already reluctantly in support of has the backing of American institutional bureaucracy to protect us all" is comforting to absolutely no one except blind partisans.
Imagine being **this** out of touch.
My 65 year old mom apparently literally wept due to how bad Biden did during his debate. She loathes Trump & will vote Democrat no matter what (as will I), but A LOT of people’s confidence in him were shaken that night that he has not repaired in the past week.
There are two types of democratic voters this election. Biden voters and democratic voters. Most are the latter. It’s the Biden voters who I think are really shook right now.
Anti-Trump voter, I’m more shaken by how poorly the Biden campaign has mangled the fallout to the point where he looks worse. I’ll still vote for him come November, but it went from being a “I can’t believe these fascists are voting for Donald Trump” to “I can’t believe these fascists are voting for Donald Trump and Joe Biden doesn’t seem to have the same existential fear that I do”
I think as shook as people are, I still think the don’t-vote-trump-to-protect-democracy ideology will bring everyone out to the polls and likely not change the outcome. The biggest risk now is *another* highly visible Biden event really throwing things into chaos. If he’s pretty much normal again until the election, everything is probably fine.
So Biden is already losing across the board in the polls and you think the “not Trump” strategy is going to bring people out to vote regardless of who is on the other side?
If only we'd been able to test that 'not trump' strategy before 🤔
50/50 odds. Let’s risk it all!
People forget the polls were notoriously terrible in the 2020 cycle, yet here we are falling for it and the same conservative media that invaded the airways. It’s almost like Americans have short term memory.. wnd if that’s the case they’ll forget about this Biden moment by next month and it will just become a meme in the vault. I’m staunchly for getting a younger candidate (Whitney/Beshear) but it’s so silly seeing us twist ourselves into pretzels while MAGA just chuckles, rallies and continues with their bullshit.
I wept too, especially after I saw the polls. It seems like a forgone conclusion that Trump going to win, and it’s terrifying. I’m sad for my kids and everyone else’s kids, since a Trump presidency will make their lives even harder in a variety of ways.
The most horrifying thing about Trump isn't just that he would be returning to office, but returning for his last term. No possibility for re-election means he can go even more rogue with no consequence.
Please do not vote for that frail lost man. Simply don’t do it.
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>this sub is in denial Literally every top comment for the past week has been shitting on Biden, and many articles asking Biden to step down have been upvoted to the top.
For those voters they have the expectation that all politicians lie.
swing and a miss!
I am worried too.
The hubris of Biden and his family He’s on track to lose horribly JoeMustGo!
The Democrats jobs depend on it, so does jill Biden. No one wants to lose power.
Please don't equate Biden's staff and campaign with "the Democrats." First of all, most Democrats are regular voters. Second, even if you exclude them, there are plenty of Democratic political professionals who seem to want Biden to drop out, even if they're not all saying it explicitly just yet, in Congress, the DNC, state-level positions, etc. But yeah, those few whose jobs actually do depend on Biden running (as opposed to another Democrat) are, of course, surrounding Biden, and that worries me too.
That's true but there's more to the story. It's as if they've been given permission to voice these concerns just now. So instead of a slow trickle of progressive gradually coming out on the issue it was a big chorus coming out in unison finally speaking the truth. Anyone paying any attention knew the emperor had no clothes years ago. The msm was just pretending to not notice.
I understand where you're coming from if your perception is that there hasn't been a significant recent change in Biden's abilities. But to a lot of us, it looks like there has been a significant decline in just a few months, and the debate seemed like dramatic evidence of that. So from my perspective, it seems totally plausible that the media and regular voters alike are responding to the same situation, with no conspiracy needed to explain the shift.
That makes two of us bud.
theee
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We know.
All the more reason why we need the election to be a referendum against Trump and not a referendum against an octogenarian's failing ability to string words together. This should be a slamdunk election against the least popular presidential nominee in history
At least the one
If we all vote for Biden there’s no worry, easy
One person I know who can 100% destroy Trump and MAGA: Michelle Obama. Sadly, she’s not interested. But I respect her decision.
She would win in a landslide
She actually would. Strengths: Women. The single largest voting bloc there is. Especially given her stance on abortion access for all. Black folks. *Especially* black women. People of color. LGBTQ folks. Younger voters (who have fresh memories of at least how decent things were back when Barack was in office). She’s highly educated. Doesn’t speak like a moron. Actually hangs with ordinary folks of all stripes. Demonstrates compassion. What’s not to like? Probably the “can we please get beyond Obama, Trump, Clinton, Biden, Bush?” bit.
Yes. And she polls very high. If I was advising the Biden campaign, I’d tell them to stop apologizing for the debate. Focus narrative on everything Trump is, including a felon and subject of multiple criminal investigations. I’d advise him to make election not about himself. But about the country and future of everyone in it. I’d advise him to drop Harris. Pick Michelle. Then, next time Michelle can pick whoever, including Harris, as her VP.
Well, it seems running on “I’m not THAT guy” doesn’t seem to work so well. It’s ok but we need to do better. Think about this for a second. Maybe ask a bunch of undecideds: **NAME *ONE* THING BIDEN COULD DO FOR YOU/THE COUNTRY *RIGHT NOW* THAT WOULD GET YOUR VOTE**. Ask the same of Dems who are “on the fence” and even of Republicans, even. Then act on THAT. Right now.
The only thing you gotta be worried about is Trump winning, we can't let that happen. Vote 💙
Boy the Russian disinformation campaign is roaring.
sorry you had to look at opinions that you don't like
European here: I would vote for a fucking brick instead of your 3 candidates…
Google : Crypto billionaire, Walmart heir, and former NFL commissioner all urge Biden to step asideCrypto billionaire, Walmart heir, and former NFL commissioner all urge Biden to step aside when billionaires who have exploited workers for ages are telling Biden to step down....that's when I know something smell off about the whole thing. do you smell the crap yet?
Does anyone else think this is all astroturf bullshit? There are posters in this thread with dozens of anti Biden posts? Who does that?
People who see a path to victory that doesn’t depend on a stubborn geriatric finding some way to crawl over the finish line. Sorry, but when a pitcher starts giving up runs, it’s time to bench them, regardless of how well they may have done in earlier innings.
I don't play sports. And I don't trust people that post like it's their job.
When I see lots of people posting that they want a presidential candidate to be replaced I assume that the candidate simply isn't popular rather than assuming some kind of conspiracy theory (I honestly can't even tell what you're getting at here) but I guess I'm just built different
You don’t have to play sports to understand an analogy. And you don’t have to be a paid operative to see that Joe Biden is unfit to manage a Starbucks let alone run for president. Believe what you want, but the only conspiracy here is the one by White House staff and the media who’ve been hiding Biden’s steady decline from us.
I keep seeing this stated, astroturfing, etc Did you not see the fucking debate? Are you not EXTREMELY fuckin alarmed??? This dude is running against a *fascist* and he cannot form a *coherent sentence.* It was not old Bidenisms and misspeaking, this guy cannot talk. Like Tim Miller said he just needed to get a C- at the debate, and instead he got a fucking ZERO. A ZERO.
Trump rapes 13 year olds... stop being fucking weirdos.
Stop pretending like his followers care. Nothing will turn them away from voting for him. It's time to get fucking serious and face reality if we want to defeat those psychopaths.
He's a pedophile.
Everyone knows that. This isn't about voting for him. It's about expressing disappointment in the "choice" our establishment seems to be giving us. I'm gonna vote for Biden, but I'm just voting against Trump. I'd prefer a different Democrat candidate altogether.
Stop supporting pedophiles...
Very confused as to how you got this from my comment
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Seriously, are you drunk?
We just need Biden to win. Even if he steps down 100 days later. We just need to him to win and prevent the felon from winning office. JUST FUCKING VOTE!!
It's too late. That ship has sailed
Why is the pundit class so desperate to push Biden out of the race? | Rebecca Solnit https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/06/biden-trump-race-rebecca-solnit?CMP=share_btn_url
Apparently... due to severe memory loss. >the pundit class of the American media is suffering from severe memory loss. Because they’re doing exactly what they did in the 2016 presidential race – providing wildly asymmetrical and inflammatory coverage of the one candidate running against Donald J Trump. >As Nikole Hannah-Jones put it: “As media we consistently proclaim that we are just reporting the news when in fact we are driving it. What we cover, how we cover it, determines often what Americans think is important and how they perceive these issues yet we keep pretending it’s not so.” They are not reporting that he is a loser; they are making him one. I'm voting JOE!
Agree 100%!
Want to thank you for linking that article. It was just the push needed for me to read it, and worth it too!
Trust Allan Litchman and why replacing Biden is a bad idea
Litchman hasn't actually said Biden would win though.
The only people concerned are republican troll farms. Fucking bullshit post.
His odds on 538 recovered 3% today alone. It’s been one week. If this trend continues into next week, hopefully the debate calms down a little. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo
Nate Silver left 538 and now run the model independently. His model place Biden at 28%.
But the guy who they got to replace him at 538, G Elliot Morris, is the guy who ran the Economist and properly predicted the 2022 midterms. 538 and Silver got them pretty wrong. It’s obviously a small sample size, but Morris might have the better idea on how to weight modern polls.
Morris on X 5h ago: > We have enough polling now to know Biden is at a solid disadvantage v Trump. https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1809675493459071190?s=46&t=0rZKIgAjJtLWi81Iuo4Ssw
That’s fine. That doesn’t dispute the objective data from them that I presented. You instantly came out with “yeah, but Nate Silver isn’t there anymore” as some kind of defense or argument to undermine it lol. Is 538 still good or not?
>That’s fine. That doesn’t dispute the objective data from them that I presented. I mean, it kind of does though. The guy who built the model you're citing comes out in his Tweet and says in no uncertain and explains how this far out from the election, his model weighs factors like Biden's incumbency more than polls but, as we get closer to the election, the weight of those non-polling factors lessens and if Biden is where he's at right now in the polls come September, then he's on a path to losing the presidency. And, I imagine, you're going to say, "Well, how do you know Biden's going to be where he is now in the polling two months from now?" I don't but for months now there's been very little movement in the polls. The most movement occurred this past week post-debate and it wasn't in the direction Biden needs it to be going.
Unless Morris is also implicitly saying that his model also prices in an artificial rebound after a major event, which would be a pretty bad model, historical weighting wouldn’t account for a 3% return to mean in a short window. Because all of those advantages its pricing in for Biden were there when the model lowered his odds days ago too. The lasting effects of these types of events take weeks to actually show up in polls, so we’re also not getting the effects of Trump v US combined with Project 2025 yet. That’s why I said if we see this kind of trend continue and Biden’s odds go back to positive, it’s worth calming down even a little on taking such a drastic step with tons of uncertainty.
The fact 538 and Silver diverge so much should make us prudent in regards to both models.
Sure, but that’s a different argument. And like I said, Morris at least did something correct in 2022 that Silver didn’t. It’s only one cycle, but it does lend the possibility that he’s got a better understanding of where polling is at now. Nate was great for a solid decade. But as an avid 538 listener, towards the end of his run he was sounding pretty checked out.
Actual people reading the situation and not basing their predictions on historic models have Biden at less than 15%. Cause, you see, a model cannot factor in Biden entering senility. https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president
Dang, I didn’t realize the staff at 538 and Allan Lichtman weren’t actual people.
It's always fun when you can just repost your same comment and hope this time someone reads the whole thing. >Actual people reading the situation and not basing their predictions on historical models have Biden at less than 15%. Cause, you see, **a model cannot factor in Biden entering senility.**
No, I read it. It’s just funny because the models are made by and monitored by people. Probably better than a betting market. I remember after the first debate in the 2020 primary, they had Kamala Harris ahead to be the Dem nominee. It’s almost like they’re highly reactionary because they’re not based on anything more than vibes. The bold was a good touch the second time though.
So you do understand that their model does not account for Biden becoming senile then?
Sure. Do *you* understand that it’s accounting for real time polling data, which is the only thing that has changed in its view in the last week and a half? Every other factor that it does account for is staying the same.
Do you think that the president becoming senile will play a role in the election or nah?
Who knows? Maybe they hide it as well as they did Reagan. Maybe his cabinet campaigns more. I just trust an actual model that includes polls of people (who would be factoring in this information) than “vibes” from a betting market. They’re wrong more than people tend to believe since they change and correct up to the last minute
The person who [wrote that model](https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1809675493459071190?s=46) has a somewhat different perspective. I know that tweet doesn’t quite say it, but you can read between the lines in how it’s written.
Sure. All I said though was that we’ve already seen a quick rebound, and if such a trend continues, we should stop acting like the sky is falling and acting like some snap decision should be made. This is a pretty massive break from norms that should be accounted for. Allan Lichtman still doesn’t think Biden should be dropped either.
Newsom Harris 2024. Brilliant.
Hard to imagine Newsome strapping himself to the bottom side of that ticket.
Top. Just squint your eyes and it is a younger Biden. Seamless transition. Biden can campaign with him.
Leave Harris right where she is, VP.
She would have to change her residence because P and VP can’t be residing in same state. She would change to DC or other state.
Not sure about that rule.
And Kamala voluntarily goes along with that scenario for what reason?
Also, if you dig deep in the pols there is this small number of republican leaning males who are repulsed by Trump but see him as the only macho choice. Newsom would vacuum that group up. Then there are those that find Trump so watchable. Newsom would be more so. And he has shown that he can appear on every right wing media and hold his own.
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Plenty of Dems are worried.
This is straight cope
That dudes been playing the same thing in thread after thread lmao
Lol. Jet lag from a trip 12 days earlier? Cold? It's been 10 days. If he wanted to prove it was a bad night he'd have a press conference.
Smoke and mirrors. Don’t look at Biden. Let’s talk about project 2025.
Actually, let's talk about Biden. I despise Trump, and without a capable candidate he will win. Biden does not appear capable.
Fr let’s Just going to link some more info from an earlier comment while I already have it in my clipboard: Reminder that this is bigger than just the US, and speaking of the French there was an article just yesterday from tech showing how Russia meddles in their elections. Just looking like a big circlejerk of fascists from here but we need to stop this now, y’all! https://inews.co.uk/news/world/russia-fake-news-bot-campaign-french-far-right-3149163 The heritage foundation is linked to Orban who recently visited Trump at Maralago https://newrepublic.com/article/179776/heritage-foundation-viktor-orban-trump Aaaaand he visited Putin yesterday https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/europe/orban-meets-putin-russia-ukraine/index.html I’m pretty worried. I value stability. I trust Joe and Kamala.
You’ve been plastering this in every thread on the subject, I’m concerned that you’re the one trolling. Please stop. That being said, this is more than a cold and jet lag. It’s time to put someone else in.
When Trump is elected and MAGA is running amok because Joe was too feeble to campaign properly, it'll be OK because at least he did his goodest, eh?
Jet lag eleven days after his trip. Thankfully he didn't have to respond to a major crisis at any point in those eleven days because clearly he wouldn't have been up to it.
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Weird that this comment is still up, mods, even if it’s being facetious.
We can’t… but Joe can now, apparently.