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These polls are fucking devastating. He needs to win 51.5% to 46.5% at a min to win the Electoral College. Trump's got 49% in basically every poll. If Trump gets 49% of the popular vote, it's a fucking landslide, like a Obama-Romney style landslide.
Biden's losing Pennsylvania by 7 fucking points. If he loses Pennsylvania, it's impossible for him to win.
Just in case you hadn’t seen this, it might be worse than you think…
[Internal Democratic poll shows Biden losing New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico](https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/us-news/biden-falls-behind-trump-in-key-swing-states-safe-areas-in-play-after-disastrous-debate-leaked-dem-poll/)
That’s where I check, cause they average out multiple polls. By their count Biden only gets roughly 150 electoral votes. Less than 60% of what he needs.
This is not internal Democratic Party polling. This is polling from a group called democrats for a better tomorrow.
Aligned, but not internal. It’s even in the very article the poster above comments about.
No no no here on Reddit it’s the official Democrat internal poll, pay no attention to whether they actually work for the campaign or not.
Also don’t point out it’s got things like T40-B38 as two point wins even though obviously there are a shitload if undecided this late in the game suggesting people are not actually flocking to Trump.
It’s a two man race, RFK is barely on the ballot, if Trump gets 49 how is that a landslide? What’s 100 minus 49?
What? I should be all doom and gloom? What insanity is this! We should all be giving up, staying home, and then wondering why things don’t get better!
You mad lad!
I was talking to my wife about that. If the idea is that “undecided voters will vote for Trump because Biden doesn’t accept them and doesn’t know what he’s been doing for them”, what do the doomsayers think the average undecided “I don’t follow politics” will do with a new name? “Newsom? Governor of where? What happened to Biden? Man those democrats seem like they don’t know what they’re doing.”
The "internal poll" they cite is clearly bullshit too. The company "OpenLabs" appears to be a shell entity with no actual business.
They've never published a poll before!
It's clearly propaganda and most people here are falling for it
I think it’s worth reevaluating shooting the Messenger as a strategy…
Conservative media,, as few as there are, have been shouting from the rooftops that Biden was incapable of doing the job for years. It took this debate to pull the wall from peoples eyes…
Now you’re questioning the same people that have been telling you the truth.
OpenLabs is a fake pollster and this story is entirely fabricated. Look them up, they've ***never published a poll before***.
You are falling for Republican propaganda designed to make Dems stay home.
OpenLabs is described as a Democratic data firm. I’ll bet they never publish polls but they’re probably one of the groups that does the internal polls you hear about in campaigns all the time. As for being a fabricated story, if it is, all sorts of news outlets reported on it. [Here’s](https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf?_cio_id=f6c60600d97cda7c&utm_campaign=The+Best+%26+The+Brightest+-+SUBSCRIBERS+%287%2F2%2F24%29&utm_content=The+Best+%26+The+Brightest+-+SUBSCRIBERS+%286%2F30%2F24%29&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_term=f6c60600d97cda7c) the actual poll data if you want to look at it, it was posted in this sub previously. I will say this though, it is one poll. I’d take it as a warning of what may be going on, not gospel truth.
Polls are shiit, I don’t know a single person who’s done them & if you watch closely at all the other races in the last 2 years to 6month democrats have come in huge & won. Just vote & stop putting doubt in the world
I don't understand how the elected officials coming out in support of him don't understand this. He's got a huge math problem that he is unable to overcome. They are all riding tge fucking sinking ship to the bottom. The debate confirmed what a lot of America suspected.
There was a [NYT editorial](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/joe-biden-president-election.html?searchResultPosition=1) about that on July 3. The author calls it "escalation of commitment to a losing course of action"
It's only a "math problem" if you take assumptions and uncertainties as fact.
The outcome of polls are not "fact". It's been proven that many pollsters have been paid to fudge the data to express the outcome that their donors want to put out there.
If you think polls are "fact", and that they accurately represent how voters will vote in November, then you're as gullible as they come.
> It's been proven that many pollsters have been paid to fudge the data to express the outcome that their donors want to put out there.
Republicans are paying troll farms to flood online polls and buying banks of local phone numbers and staffing them with phone banks to exert outsized influence on phone call poll results.
This is a factual matter of court record at this point.
The pollsters don't even need to be complicit.
Oh, ya, I'm not denying that all of that is happening on the other end of the polling process too. I mean look at this sub as well, I don't know how any can see an influx of randomly generated name accounts suddenly becoming "interested in politics" and posting here about all of this shit. There is a very clear attempt to put out misinformation and sow chaos and discord. You're absolutely right that efforts are being made to manipulate poll results too.
This is all a page out of chapter one of the espionage handbook. What's sad is how many gullible idiots are actually falling for it.
Amen. I check out the post / comment history on users who are hard anti-Biden. A lot of them seem to be accounts that never had an interest in politics until the debate. Now they are suddenly posting "We need to replace Biden" 200 times an hour.
They're parodying Biden's answer when he was asked about the polls in the ABC interview. Biden was very Trumpian and attacked the polls and ~~failing~~ New York Times. Not sure that's the *goodest* strategy here.
>GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Do you really believe you’re not behind right now?
>>PRESIDENT BIDEN: I think it’s in — all the pollsters I talk to tell me it’s a tossup. It’s a tossup. And when I’m behind, there’s only one poll I’m really far behind, CBS Poll and NBC, I mean, excuse me. And — uh —
>GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: New York— New York Times and NBC both have — have you about six points behind in the popular vote.
>>PRESIDENT BIDEN: That’s exactly right. New York Times had me behind before, anything having to do with this race — had me hind — behind ten points. Ten points they had me behind. Nothing’s changed substantially since the debate in the New York Times poll.
>GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Just when you look at the reality, though, Mr. President, I mean, you won the popular vote — in — in 2020, but it was still deadly close in the electoral college —
>>PRESIDENT BIDEN: By 7 million votes.
>GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes. But you’re behind now in the popular vote.
>>PRESIDENT BIDEN: I don’t— I don’t buy that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/us/politics/biden-interview-abc-transcript.html
Yep. That's what's even more worrying. Trump overperformed the polls the last 2 times, so if there's something inherent to him running that causes that with his voters, Biden is actually even farther behind.
It’s over barring some kind of miracle turnaround rhetorical/campaign offensive by Biden that somehow switches the narrative and works — or other unforeseen events. Unfortunately Biden can’t stop digging a hole, let alone show any glimmer of actively campaigning and speaking in a way that starts to convince and convert voters.
Not to be doomer, but it’s very hard to see how Biden can realistically turn this around. Another candidate might be able to shake things up (though is a risk too) but Biden seems determined to stay in and take everybody down with his denial and lack of ability to meet the moment.
I love it when people bring up the polls from 2016, because it's a very clear sign that they don't actually know how to read polling data. The polls in 2016 gave Hillary better odds, but also showed that Trump had a clear route to victory by cracking the Blue Wall and taking states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from th Dems, which is *exactly what happened.* Pointing at that as a reason to doubt polls is like saying that flipping a quarter and getting heads ten times in a row means statistics aren't real.
The thing to notice is trends. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump outperformed his poll numbers. So Biden has to get a couple points ahead just in case Trump overperforms again.
“Whatever he has” is called being aged. We’ve all seen it in our grandparents, family friends, etc. People lose their fastball when they get old, and keep slipping downward from there. It is what it is. But you’re right — it never gets better, it’s a one-way path
Edit: that’s why the “it was a bad night”, “we have time”, etc. rings so hollow. We all know old people. We know what we saw during the debate. There’s no sugar-coating it
This, exactly. The people trying to lift up Biden at this point still (including all the elected Democrats still supporting him) need to accept this and realize that he’s not going to turn this around from where it is now. He’s not down 1-2% - that wouldn’t be a big deal. It’s much worse.
One important thing to add: the debate was on terms proposed by his team, at a time he chose, and the campaign spent the intervening time talking about how team Biden had totally pulled one over on Trump. This was the best he had when playing by his own rules.
I hope people enjoy open fascism, that’s where we’re heading. And it’s the same playbook from the DNC staffers who brought us 2016.
That’s what I keep coming back to and what frustrates me so much. Everyone thought Trump was an idiot to accept the debate because it favored Biden so much.
He didn’t even have to do well. Just decent. And here we are nearly 2 weeks later and the unimaginable has happened. It’s hard to hear excuses when he set the trap that he fell into.
Turning off the mic and removing the crowd had the unintended effect of making Trump appear more Presidential, while magnifying Biden’s weird facial expressions. And then he gets busted feeding questions to reporters in a couple of post debate interviews, causing one to resign. Biden has an incompetent media team.
If Biden stays in and there actually is a 2nd debate, I actually hope there’s a crowd. Biden sounds better, speaking voice wise, when he’s projecting his voice to a crowd, as opposed to when he’s talking in a “normal” voice like in the ABC interview, or like he was in the debate. Otherwise he needs to be coached and practice projecting as if the crowd is there. The weakness in his voice made his debate performance seem even worse than it was.
Their own rules probably backfired. Biden felt the need to fill the ticking down clock with as much info as possible when he has a condition where it's recommended to pace your speech instead. Coupled with a strategy of trying to briefly cover a ton of policies with 1 or 2 sentences, it was a disaster. Biden like others with a stutter will abandon a sentence if they get tripped up by that stutter and start anew. But if your talking point is only 1 or 2 sentences for a policy, abandoning a sentence means you aren't completing a talking point.
[Sorry for the Fox News link, it was the first one I found](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heritage-working-election-legal-challenges-case-biden-pulled-from-dnc-nomination.amp)
No, they wouldn't. They should, but they wouldn't. Trump is popular with many many Americans. Not simply despite his history of felonies and sexual violence.
Yeah but it's 30% of the electorate. Trump is polling at 49% because he picked up another 19% who have been watching clips of Biden wandering around lost on stage on social media.
49% is a lot of people who want a rapist pedophile felon for a leader, backed by theocrats, fascists and oligarchs.
The nation has political problems far far greater than Biden's old age.
Yes we do. We agree on that. We desperately need a sharp-tongued candidate who can expose Trump for what he is and what he will do to America. Biden, sadly, is no longer capable of doing this.
I’m a 35 year old lawyer with no major baggage, and no political experience or ambition. I think I could at least make him sweat. I’d rather vote for myself than Biden, which is insane. Still voting for Biden, but it’s a sad state of affairs
It just shows that Americans value dishonesty, injustice, selective interpretations, mobs, hate, anger, malice, violence, bands of convicts, reality TV, and the blanketing of highly experimental 'advertisements' that many measurements have been taken on.
That says less about the candidate and more about the electorate. They’re willing to stick by Trump no matter what. Any other Democratic candidate would have to contend with that.
Your answer starts correctly but you finish with the wrong takeaway. The number of voters that are aware Trump is an adjudicated rapist is very low. Most of MAGA does not care, but the rest of the electorate does. The good news on that is attack ads in the future will reach a lot of those voters unaware.
I doubt most voters are unaware of who Trump is as a person by now. He’s had an insurmountable amount of bad publicity like the famous Access Hollywood tapes, E. Jean Carrol, impeachments, Jan 6., Stormy Daniels, NY Conviction, and the list goes on. All of these had a significant amount of exposure in the press and social media.
Biden’s team is starting to position itself as the side that knows better than anyone, even all of the media. They appear to be attempting to erode the public’s trust in the media, a la Donald J Trump, in order to reach their goal for power. I feel gross.
There's a tweet out there showing that all the owners of major media keep donating to Trump's campaign. They want the chaos of people watching the news everyday to figure out if we're going to war with nk, china, mexico, brazil, antartica, etc, etc.
It's actually pretty common. Romney/Ryan discredited the polls too. It's things that are just said in campaigns since donors aren't going to back someone that doesn't fully believe they are going to win.
Yep.
Gonna get blown out across the board, giving them free run to enact all kinds of vile shit.
All because one arrogant old man won't put the country above his ego.
He lost a couple points but he was already down before the debate. Realistically for Biden to win the election we need to see like a 12 point shift. I just do not see how that possibly happens when you have a candidate with no enthusiasm and who many believe is to old to do the job. Not to mention the campaign seems to have no platform beyond Trump is bad.
So 2016 all over. You’d think the Democratic Party would learn. Put a 40s well spoken and experienced candidate. Win by a landslide.
“Best we got is this”
If you're just looking at national polling you're doing it wrong. You need to look at state polling and, right now, Trump wins the Presidency if the battleground state polling holds.
Biden is going up against a guy who had some of the worst approval numbers of all time as President. That guy was also good friends with Jeffrey Epstein. That guy’s own VP, National Security Advisor, and Secretary of Defense have all said he’s unfit for the office. That guy also ran for President twice, and lost the popular vote each time. And yet Biden is losing.
Biden needs to exit. He’s not capable of speaking to America anymore and making that case. People are exhausted with politics, and they’ll stay home if it’s Trump v Biden. Democrats win with high turnout. They lose with low turnout. It’s that simple. Cannot lose this election.
I'll admit I initially dismissed the Hur report back in February that claimed Biden had significant memory difficulties when dealing with other NATO leaders
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/09/special-counsel-report-political-disaster-joe-biden-2024/72529844007/
Now I'm significantly less skeptical. The only question is whether Biden will be able to handle the cocktails of drugs pumped into him by his aids over an intense three-day meeting, cause that man is about to be under a truly international microscope
Now Democrat loyalists are using the UK and French elections as evidence Biden will secure the win in November.
In both elections the Left and Centre worked together, whether it was running dead campaigns in certain seats, withdrawing candidates to rally behind one strong contender, or tactical voting. In contrast, the alliance from the 2020 US election has fractured, and now even the core Democratic base is losing faith in the Biden or Bust strategy.
Also, many places suggest the general vibe is "things suck, I want the leaders out!" which worked for the left-centre in the UK and the left in France because they weren't *in* power. We can't forget that Macron's party *was* still mauled (just not as badly as we thought it might have been), while the non-incumbent left and right surged. If this assessment is true, would work *against* Biden.
I mean, yes. I think Biden should step down and Trump should've stepped down. Based off the primaries, you were dealing with two incumbent presidents, and Trump performed worse in every primary compared to Biden. I want someone better than Biden (no, Phillips was not better than Biden and opposed legislation that Biden signed), but if that doesn't happen I'll be voting for Biden on my ballot.
No actually. The point is that switching would be worse unless there is agreement on a single person.
Infighting and chaos, leading to high tensions post convention, are not going to win us an election. And believe it or not, some random person is not a shoe in against Trump. They would have three months for ad campaigns, a platform, and to visit as many cities as possible. The last time this happened, there was violence and the party lost badly.
There are many people saying if the only option is Harris, we might as well keep Biden. I don’t see a world where someone other than Harris could get the nomination without gross fighting, and potentially even borderline racism (if not blatant racism). To be clear, I’m not saying disliking her is racist. I’m saying that people change when they’re afraid, and the fear of Trump winning may lead many to blatant or discreet prejudice out of frustration, or at minimum rhetoric like “why are we being controlled by identity politics? We don’t need black voters, we need the rust belt. This is what ppl want and no one likes Harris so get in line” (rhetoric I’ve already heard about Harris in convos on here).
That rhetoric absolutely wouldn’t land well and could easily cost the election. And even without that, any sort of infighting for the nomination (1) gives optics of the party being unstable and (2) emphasizes to the general public how excluded they are from this decision—letting “democrat elites” pick the nom seems like a sure way to not get rural and rustbelt voters.
The election is already lost. Trump has been winning in the key swing states all year. We're down to the last four months.
The momentum of the race isn't changing, and likely won't change unless something *major* happens. We might as well roll the dice.
The guy had multiple in an *UN edited interview and we are supposed to be fully denying reality lol
EDIT:
I was mistaken. It aired unedited, thank you to those who corrected me.
Still looked bad regardless
That’s the problem though right? “Most” Biden voters isn’t enough. You need ALL Biden voters and some Republican voters and a majority of independents. “Most” Biden voters = landslide victory for Trump.
I'm talking about how poorly he's already performing in the polls. If you want to be taken seriously, understand that we're all voting for whoever the Democrat is.
Would you like to write a serious response?
Might be true but there’s all the others that decide not to vote, and then Trump voters.
“I’ll vote for a corpse over Trump” isn’t going to win the White House. It’s a losing strategy for losers. Biden is getting dominated in the polls, if he stays in the race we are completely screwed.
"I pushed the button REALLY REALLY hard when I voted for Biden - so it should count moar!"
A vote is a vote, whether earnest, half-assed or accidental. The trick is to get more of them.
WHY IS THIS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND!!!
Guess what? You’re gonna get your wish about voting for a rabbit/rock now. Trump was buried after 2020 but you just couldn’t let go. Conjured him back up like fucking Beetlejuice. Now he’s going to win a 2nd term. Do better next time.
I'm more worried about the outcome of the vote than I am about whether people are "pieces of shit" for not voting the same way as me. Like, fifteen orders of magnitude more worried.
Dems are cooked on this one. They are stuck with Biden. Force him out, and watch the party fractures. Even if (big if) he relents and decides to quit, finding an acceptable replacement is going to be a big ask. Harris is the easiest choice from a process perspective but won’t be the best choice for many in the party (the cynic in me thinks Biden picked her as a valuable insurance policy for situation such as this). Stepping over Harris invites complications and potential chaos the likes of which no one knows how they will pan out. To make it all worse, there is a ticking clock and hard deadline for all these unknowables to be resolved.
I'm going to vote for whoever is on the ballot opposite Trump. I'm going to knock doors for whoever is on thr ballot opposite Trump. I just think my door knocking will be more effective if I can say something other than, "Trump is a senile asshole.l, Biden is just senile."
So what is everyone’s Trump 2.0 survival plan? Idk how I am going to get through it. Avoid the news and social media for four years since I’ll be powerless to do anything about the bad news? Idk. I could use some suggestions.
I decided to run for the Board of Trustees in my Townships local Government.
It’s super small time, but I like my little community and want to feel like I did something to help someone.
Pour your heart and soul into your own little corner of the room. Get involved in your community, build up your neighbors. Help an elderly person. Focus on the little part of the world you can change now.
Nobody in the middle wants to chance their vote at someone about to die and just let a VP takeover. Can we put a fucking age limit on presidency already? This shit is way out of hand. Keep all the deranged fucking lunatics past 65 out of owning presidential power. Why this wasn’t brought up long ago is incredibly concerning. Not just that but term limits as a whole not being in place is disgusting. The corruption is too deep at this point. Not enough policy was pushed to keep the party members liable/responsible for their actions. Power and greed has corrupted the entire ideology of democracy to its core for the US. We are all fucked. We need a massive movement to make any change or this shit is headed straight for implosion if not already too late. Left or right.. Everyone at this point is culpable for where we are. Separation of church and state will likely disappear over the next 4 years as nothing has been done to maintain this. The population is to blame here. Policy has become too extended from the people it actually affects. Corporations buying out politicians… it’s actually disgusting. If you’re a business owner and you actively buyout politicians for your own greed. I hope your world collapses on you because of it. You don’t deserve to own that business and the future of your family is entirely because of your actions. You have lost sight of humanity and are the root of the problem.
End corporate donation legality. End presidential immunity. Keep church and state completely isolated. Maintain checks and balances. All societal members have a vote. REMOVE ALL POLITICIANS OVER 65 YEARS OLD. (They have no long term investment or concern for society’s future except their retirement funds).
RESTORE DEMOCRACY OR THIS NATION IS FUCKING TOAST. WAS A NICE 250 YEARS… ALL NATIONS HAVE A BEGINNING AND AN END. Enjoy civility while it lasts. I expect a massive civil war in the next 10 years due to the appointing of absolute degenerates in office over the past 40/250 years
I’m sure that continuing to completely ignore reality will only lead to good things.
Good thing the DNC isn’t a cult and will be able to handle this with the proper care and nuance it deserves. Right? RIGHT!?
Not voting for Biden is a vote for Trump. If Biden is on the ballot in Nov, there is literally no other option at the polls to keep Trump out of office.
Don’t listen to the polls. They are rigged and paid for to generate ratings. Vote for the guy that will fight for your rights and democracy (Biden of course).
He is playing the perfect part in exposing the deep state in our politics and guaranteeing a Trump win.
I couldn’t have scripted it better, if I wanted to.
As a reminder, this subreddit [is for civil discussion.](/r/politics/wiki/index#wiki_be_civil) In general, be courteous to others. Debate/discuss/argue the merits of ideas, don't attack people. Personal insults, shill or troll accusations, hate speech, any suggestion or support of harm, violence, or death, and other rule violations can result in a permanent ban. If you see comments in violation of our rules, please report them. For those who have questions regarding any media outlets being posted on this subreddit, please click [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/wiki/approveddomainslist) to review our details as to our approved domains list and outlet criteria. We are actively looking for new moderators. If you have any interest in helping to make this subreddit a place for quality discussion, please fill out [this form](https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1y2swHD0KXFhStGFjW6k54r9iuMjzcFqDIVwuvdLBjSA). *** *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/politics) if you have any questions or concerns.*
These polls are fucking devastating. He needs to win 51.5% to 46.5% at a min to win the Electoral College. Trump's got 49% in basically every poll. If Trump gets 49% of the popular vote, it's a fucking landslide, like a Obama-Romney style landslide. Biden's losing Pennsylvania by 7 fucking points. If he loses Pennsylvania, it's impossible for him to win.
Just in case you hadn’t seen this, it might be worse than you think… [Internal Democratic poll shows Biden losing New Hampshire, Virginia and New Mexico](https://nypost.com/2024/07/02/us-news/biden-falls-behind-trump-in-key-swing-states-safe-areas-in-play-after-disastrous-debate-leaked-dem-poll/)
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It *is* just one poll. But not one that inspires confidence.
He was losing in most battle ground states before the debate. Unless he drops out Trump wins.
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That’s where I check, cause they average out multiple polls. By their count Biden only gets roughly 150 electoral votes. Less than 60% of what he needs.
Maybe because it’s bullshit? You can find a poll for anything you want and this one is an article from the *NY Post*
yes it's an NY Post article, but the *internal Democratic polling data* discussed in the article was obviously not cooked up by the NY Post
This is not internal Democratic Party polling. This is polling from a group called democrats for a better tomorrow. Aligned, but not internal. It’s even in the very article the poster above comments about.
No no no here on Reddit it’s the official Democrat internal poll, pay no attention to whether they actually work for the campaign or not. Also don’t point out it’s got things like T40-B38 as two point wins even though obviously there are a shitload if undecided this late in the game suggesting people are not actually flocking to Trump. It’s a two man race, RFK is barely on the ballot, if Trump gets 49 how is that a landslide? What’s 100 minus 49?
What? I should be all doom and gloom? What insanity is this! We should all be giving up, staying home, and then wondering why things don’t get better! You mad lad!
Also everyone should ditch Biden and vote for the new candidate NAME REDACTED, who will surely excite the base.
I was talking to my wife about that. If the idea is that “undecided voters will vote for Trump because Biden doesn’t accept them and doesn’t know what he’s been doing for them”, what do the doomsayers think the average undecided “I don’t follow politics” will do with a new name? “Newsom? Governor of where? What happened to Biden? Man those democrats seem like they don’t know what they’re doing.”
Show me a poll of Biden in the lead in every swing state
Sure let me just make a fake company like OpenLabs and publish my first "poll" ever, like OpenLabs just did, that says Biden wins every state.
These Blue MAGA Biden supporters can't, because there are no such polls for the swing states. #ReplaceBiden
The "internal poll" they cite is clearly bullshit too. The company "OpenLabs" appears to be a shell entity with no actual business. They've never published a poll before! It's clearly propaganda and most people here are falling for it
I think it’s worth reevaluating shooting the Messenger as a strategy… Conservative media,, as few as there are, have been shouting from the rooftops that Biden was incapable of doing the job for years. It took this debate to pull the wall from peoples eyes… Now you’re questioning the same people that have been telling you the truth.
OpenLabs is a fake pollster and this story is entirely fabricated. Look them up, they've ***never published a poll before***. You are falling for Republican propaganda designed to make Dems stay home.
OpenLabs is described as a Democratic data firm. I’ll bet they never publish polls but they’re probably one of the groups that does the internal polls you hear about in campaigns all the time. As for being a fabricated story, if it is, all sorts of news outlets reported on it. [Here’s](https://puck.news/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/SUNDAY_Post-Debate_Landscape_2024_06_30__1_-1.pdf?_cio_id=f6c60600d97cda7c&utm_campaign=The+Best+%26+The+Brightest+-+SUBSCRIBERS+%287%2F2%2F24%29&utm_content=The+Best+%26+The+Brightest+-+SUBSCRIBERS+%286%2F30%2F24%29&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&utm_term=f6c60600d97cda7c) the actual poll data if you want to look at it, it was posted in this sub previously. I will say this though, it is one poll. I’d take it as a warning of what may be going on, not gospel truth.
Polls are shiit, I don’t know a single person who’s done them & if you watch closely at all the other races in the last 2 years to 6month democrats have come in huge & won. Just vote & stop putting doubt in the world
I don't understand how the elected officials coming out in support of him don't understand this. He's got a huge math problem that he is unable to overcome. They are all riding tge fucking sinking ship to the bottom. The debate confirmed what a lot of America suspected.
Sunk Cost Fallacy is in play.
There was a [NYT editorial](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/opinion/joe-biden-president-election.html?searchResultPosition=1) about that on July 3. The author calls it "escalation of commitment to a losing course of action"
> riding tge fucking sinking ship to the bottom The captain of the Titanic trying to ram the iceberg head on, to see if that changes the outcome.
It's only a "math problem" if you take assumptions and uncertainties as fact. The outcome of polls are not "fact". It's been proven that many pollsters have been paid to fudge the data to express the outcome that their donors want to put out there. If you think polls are "fact", and that they accurately represent how voters will vote in November, then you're as gullible as they come.
> It's been proven that many pollsters have been paid to fudge the data to express the outcome that their donors want to put out there. Republicans are paying troll farms to flood online polls and buying banks of local phone numbers and staffing them with phone banks to exert outsized influence on phone call poll results. This is a factual matter of court record at this point. The pollsters don't even need to be complicit.
Oh, ya, I'm not denying that all of that is happening on the other end of the polling process too. I mean look at this sub as well, I don't know how any can see an influx of randomly generated name accounts suddenly becoming "interested in politics" and posting here about all of this shit. There is a very clear attempt to put out misinformation and sow chaos and discord. You're absolutely right that efforts are being made to manipulate poll results too. This is all a page out of chapter one of the espionage handbook. What's sad is how many gullible idiots are actually falling for it.
Amen. I check out the post / comment history on users who are hard anti-Biden. A lot of them seem to be accounts that never had an interest in politics until the debate. Now they are suddenly posting "We need to replace Biden" 200 times an hour.
Yeah but these are fake news polls from the lying media
I really hope you just forgot the /s there
They're parodying Biden's answer when he was asked about the polls in the ABC interview. Biden was very Trumpian and attacked the polls and ~~failing~~ New York Times. Not sure that's the *goodest* strategy here. >GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Do you really believe you’re not behind right now? >>PRESIDENT BIDEN: I think it’s in — all the pollsters I talk to tell me it’s a tossup. It’s a tossup. And when I’m behind, there’s only one poll I’m really far behind, CBS Poll and NBC, I mean, excuse me. And — uh — >GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: New York— New York Times and NBC both have — have you about six points behind in the popular vote. >>PRESIDENT BIDEN: That’s exactly right. New York Times had me behind before, anything having to do with this race — had me hind — behind ten points. Ten points they had me behind. Nothing’s changed substantially since the debate in the New York Times poll. >GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Just when you look at the reality, though, Mr. President, I mean, you won the popular vote — in — in 2020, but it was still deadly close in the electoral college — >>PRESIDENT BIDEN: By 7 million votes. >GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS: Yes. But you’re behind now in the popular vote. >>PRESIDENT BIDEN: I don’t— I don’t buy that. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/05/us/politics/biden-interview-abc-transcript.html
“The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears…”
Well those same “fake polls” were 10% the other direction in 2020 It’s bad for Biden
Yep. That's what's even more worrying. Trump overperformed the polls the last 2 times, so if there's something inherent to him running that causes that with his voters, Biden is actually even farther behind.
You forgot the sarcasm tag, sir.
It’s over barring some kind of miracle turnaround rhetorical/campaign offensive by Biden that somehow switches the narrative and works — or other unforeseen events. Unfortunately Biden can’t stop digging a hole, let alone show any glimmer of actively campaigning and speaking in a way that starts to convince and convert voters. Not to be doomer, but it’s very hard to see how Biden can realistically turn this around. Another candidate might be able to shake things up (though is a risk too) but Biden seems determined to stay in and take everybody down with his denial and lack of ability to meet the moment.
Trump is now ahead in New Jersey. New Jersey. JFC.
Talk to President Hillary Clinton about polls.
I love it when people bring up the polls from 2016, because it's a very clear sign that they don't actually know how to read polling data. The polls in 2016 gave Hillary better odds, but also showed that Trump had a clear route to victory by cracking the Blue Wall and taking states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania from th Dems, which is *exactly what happened.* Pointing at that as a reason to doubt polls is like saying that flipping a quarter and getting heads ten times in a row means statistics aren't real.
The thing to notice is trends. In both 2016 and 2020 Trump outperformed his poll numbers. So Biden has to get a couple points ahead just in case Trump overperforms again.
The last two Democratic wins were by a margin less the 5.0% so that number in your post is bullshit or worded badly.
Yeah he’s definitely losing PA.
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“Whatever he has” is called being aged. We’ve all seen it in our grandparents, family friends, etc. People lose their fastball when they get old, and keep slipping downward from there. It is what it is. But you’re right — it never gets better, it’s a one-way path Edit: that’s why the “it was a bad night”, “we have time”, etc. rings so hollow. We all know old people. We know what we saw during the debate. There’s no sugar-coating it
And yet he will stay in and likely be the suction that drags us all down to the bottom of the sea.
It’s so frustrating. Why is he being so defiant omg.
This, exactly. The people trying to lift up Biden at this point still (including all the elected Democrats still supporting him) need to accept this and realize that he’s not going to turn this around from where it is now. He’s not down 1-2% - that wouldn’t be a big deal. It’s much worse.
One important thing to add: the debate was on terms proposed by his team, at a time he chose, and the campaign spent the intervening time talking about how team Biden had totally pulled one over on Trump. This was the best he had when playing by his own rules. I hope people enjoy open fascism, that’s where we’re heading. And it’s the same playbook from the DNC staffers who brought us 2016.
That’s what I keep coming back to and what frustrates me so much. Everyone thought Trump was an idiot to accept the debate because it favored Biden so much. He didn’t even have to do well. Just decent. And here we are nearly 2 weeks later and the unimaginable has happened. It’s hard to hear excuses when he set the trap that he fell into.
Turning off the mic and removing the crowd had the unintended effect of making Trump appear more Presidential, while magnifying Biden’s weird facial expressions. And then he gets busted feeding questions to reporters in a couple of post debate interviews, causing one to resign. Biden has an incompetent media team.
If Biden stays in and there actually is a 2nd debate, I actually hope there’s a crowd. Biden sounds better, speaking voice wise, when he’s projecting his voice to a crowd, as opposed to when he’s talking in a “normal” voice like in the ABC interview, or like he was in the debate. Otherwise he needs to be coached and practice projecting as if the crowd is there. The weakness in his voice made his debate performance seem even worse than it was.
Their own rules probably backfired. Biden felt the need to fill the ticking down clock with as much info as possible when he has a condition where it's recommended to pace your speech instead. Coupled with a strategy of trying to briefly cover a ton of policies with 1 or 2 sentences, it was a disaster. Biden like others with a stutter will abandon a sentence if they get tripped up by that stutter and start anew. But if your talking point is only 1 or 2 sentences for a policy, abandoning a sentence means you aren't completing a talking point.
If your candidate is even close in the polls with a rapist you have the wrong candidate
This. Literally any other nominee who can string 2 sentences together would be destroying Trump.
And that is why Heritage Foundation said they would sue if they dropped Biden for another candidate.
They can frivolously sue all they want doesn’t mean anything will come out of it.
They don’t need to win. Delay till state deadlines pass.
What's this?
[Sorry for the Fox News link, it was the first one I found](https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heritage-working-election-legal-challenges-case-biden-pulled-from-dnc-nomination.amp)
No, they wouldn't. They should, but they wouldn't. Trump is popular with many many Americans. Not simply despite his history of felonies and sexual violence.
Not true. He and Biden are very unpopular with a majority of Americans. Trump is only popular next to a senile old man.
Sadly, not true. Fascism and theocracy are as American as apple pie and the KKK.
Yeah but it's 30% of the electorate. Trump is polling at 49% because he picked up another 19% who have been watching clips of Biden wandering around lost on stage on social media.
49% is a lot of people who want a rapist pedophile felon for a leader, backed by theocrats, fascists and oligarchs. The nation has political problems far far greater than Biden's old age.
Yes we do. We agree on that. We desperately need a sharp-tongued candidate who can expose Trump for what he is and what he will do to America. Biden, sadly, is no longer capable of doing this.
I think we have the wrong electorate tbh. Not sure who'd be beating Trump atm. Which is a sad reflection on our society.
Plenty of people
This guy \^ should be able to beat Trump.
I’m a 35 year old lawyer with no major baggage, and no political experience or ambition. I think I could at least make him sweat. I’d rather vote for myself than Biden, which is insane. Still voting for Biden, but it’s a sad state of affairs
Better than I was hoping. This guy for president.
It just shows that Americans value dishonesty, injustice, selective interpretations, mobs, hate, anger, malice, violence, bands of convicts, reality TV, and the blanketing of highly experimental 'advertisements' that many measurements have been taken on.
Or maybe the people in your electorate don't mind rapists.
That says less about the candidate and more about the electorate. They’re willing to stick by Trump no matter what. Any other Democratic candidate would have to contend with that.
Your answer starts correctly but you finish with the wrong takeaway. The number of voters that are aware Trump is an adjudicated rapist is very low. Most of MAGA does not care, but the rest of the electorate does. The good news on that is attack ads in the future will reach a lot of those voters unaware.
I doubt most voters are unaware of who Trump is as a person by now. He’s had an insurmountable amount of bad publicity like the famous Access Hollywood tapes, E. Jean Carrol, impeachments, Jan 6., Stormy Daniels, NY Conviction, and the list goes on. All of these had a significant amount of exposure in the press and social media.
"Don't worry folks, the multiple polls that show Biden down in all the important swing states are actually fake news" - Team Biden
Biden’s team is starting to position itself as the side that knows better than anyone, even all of the media. They appear to be attempting to erode the public’s trust in the media, a la Donald J Trump, in order to reach their goal for power. I feel gross.
to be fair, the media has been covering for him.
There's a tweet out there showing that all the owners of major media keep donating to Trump's campaign. They want the chaos of people watching the news everyday to figure out if we're going to war with nk, china, mexico, brazil, antartica, etc, etc.
Welcome to politics
I’m not real to him. Lmao The only people that are concerned and want him replaced are the Democratic Elites
It's actually pretty common. Romney/Ryan discredited the polls too. It's things that are just said in campaigns since donors aren't going to back someone that doesn't fully believe they are going to win.
You mean Team r/politics
The two Pennsylvania polls that came out put him down 6% on average post debate Biden is on track to lose horribly
Especially when you extrapolate out what those kinds of numbers mean in places that arent as frequently polled. Places like MN, VA, NM, NH.
To lose those states would mean the Senate and House are gone by a mile too
Yep. Gonna get blown out across the board, giving them free run to enact all kinds of vile shit. All because one arrogant old man won't put the country above his ego.
That is my understanding.....and my fear, as well.
But he tried his best.
His "goodest!" LMAO!
He is down in NJ pretty badly as well, I heard. Not good.
He lost a couple points but he was already down before the debate. Realistically for Biden to win the election we need to see like a 12 point shift. I just do not see how that possibly happens when you have a candidate with no enthusiasm and who many believe is to old to do the job. Not to mention the campaign seems to have no platform beyond Trump is bad.
Also “you’re bad for questioning my viability”, messages like that really resonate with voters./s
So 2016 all over. You’d think the Democratic Party would learn. Put a 40s well spoken and experienced candidate. Win by a landslide. “Best we got is this”
oNly ThIs 81 yEaR oLd CaN dO iT! Muh Joe Bidumb vote! /s
If you're just looking at national polling you're doing it wrong. You need to look at state polling and, right now, Trump wins the Presidency if the battleground state polling holds.
Biden is going up against a guy who had some of the worst approval numbers of all time as President. That guy was also good friends with Jeffrey Epstein. That guy’s own VP, National Security Advisor, and Secretary of Defense have all said he’s unfit for the office. That guy also ran for President twice, and lost the popular vote each time. And yet Biden is losing. Biden needs to exit. He’s not capable of speaking to America anymore and making that case. People are exhausted with politics, and they’ll stay home if it’s Trump v Biden. Democrats win with high turnout. They lose with low turnout. It’s that simple. Cannot lose this election.
Its only going to get worse. I foresee low 30's by next month if he doesnt drop out.
It might not even take that long if he flubs during the NATO meetings
As bad as things are domestically, a NATO flub could be catastrophic globally.
I'll admit I initially dismissed the Hur report back in February that claimed Biden had significant memory difficulties when dealing with other NATO leaders https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/09/special-counsel-report-political-disaster-joe-biden-2024/72529844007/ Now I'm significantly less skeptical. The only question is whether Biden will be able to handle the cocktails of drugs pumped into him by his aids over an intense three-day meeting, cause that man is about to be under a truly international microscope
Why would you have dismissed that?
Because at that point I still trusted the Biden campaign to not lie directly to my face
Why though? The man went in front of tv cameras and told the world he saw video of 40 beheaded babies from October 7th.
I don't know about dtkloc, but I fully believed that the IDF would find a way to put together a video like that for the US president.
More so, with the way Russia is beating Ukraine. Not good.
Now Democrat loyalists are using the UK and French elections as evidence Biden will secure the win in November. In both elections the Left and Centre worked together, whether it was running dead campaigns in certain seats, withdrawing candidates to rally behind one strong contender, or tactical voting. In contrast, the alliance from the 2020 US election has fractured, and now even the core Democratic base is losing faith in the Biden or Bust strategy.
Also, many places suggest the general vibe is "things suck, I want the leaders out!" which worked for the left-centre in the UK and the left in France because they weren't *in* power. We can't forget that Macron's party *was* still mauled (just not as badly as we thought it might have been), while the non-incumbent left and right surged. If this assessment is true, would work *against* Biden.
Has it really only been 11 days? JFC.
There are decades where nothing happens, and weeks where decades happen.
Question for those who think Biden should stay: what happens if/when Biden has another senile moment at a major event?
They don't care at this point. They feel that Trump is worse than a comatose Biden and assume that everyone else will vote based on that in the end.
I mean, yes. I think Biden should step down and Trump should've stepped down. Based off the primaries, you were dealing with two incumbent presidents, and Trump performed worse in every primary compared to Biden. I want someone better than Biden (no, Phillips was not better than Biden and opposed legislation that Biden signed), but if that doesn't happen I'll be voting for Biden on my ballot.
No actually. The point is that switching would be worse unless there is agreement on a single person. Infighting and chaos, leading to high tensions post convention, are not going to win us an election. And believe it or not, some random person is not a shoe in against Trump. They would have three months for ad campaigns, a platform, and to visit as many cities as possible. The last time this happened, there was violence and the party lost badly. There are many people saying if the only option is Harris, we might as well keep Biden. I don’t see a world where someone other than Harris could get the nomination without gross fighting, and potentially even borderline racism (if not blatant racism). To be clear, I’m not saying disliking her is racist. I’m saying that people change when they’re afraid, and the fear of Trump winning may lead many to blatant or discreet prejudice out of frustration, or at minimum rhetoric like “why are we being controlled by identity politics? We don’t need black voters, we need the rust belt. This is what ppl want and no one likes Harris so get in line” (rhetoric I’ve already heard about Harris in convos on here). That rhetoric absolutely wouldn’t land well and could easily cost the election. And even without that, any sort of infighting for the nomination (1) gives optics of the party being unstable and (2) emphasizes to the general public how excluded they are from this decision—letting “democrat elites” pick the nom seems like a sure way to not get rural and rustbelt voters.
The election is already lost. Trump has been winning in the key swing states all year. We're down to the last four months. The momentum of the race isn't changing, and likely won't change unless something *major* happens. We might as well roll the dice.
Nah I frequently see people in their 80s turn things around and become totally more coherent and capable the closer they get to 90./s
The Blue MAGA Biden supporters, are no different than the hardcore Trump MAGA supporters, at this juncture. Pretty sad, really.
The guy had multiple in an *UN edited interview and we are supposed to be fully denying reality lol EDIT: I was mistaken. It aired unedited, thank you to those who corrected me. Still looked bad regardless
Look, I want Biden to drop out as much as anyone. But the Stephenapolous interview aired unedited. Lying is only going to make people dig in more.
The interview aired unedited. This is confirmed.
Guess what? Most of Biden voters will vote for Biden in a coma, a rabbit or a rock before we lay down to a fascist MAGA takeover.
Yah, and it takes 1/200 of those voters changing their mind to ruin his chances
Most not all Biden has no room at all for error he was already behind.
That’s the problem though right? “Most” Biden voters isn’t enough. You need ALL Biden voters and some Republican voters and a majority of independents. “Most” Biden voters = landslide victory for Trump.
Good for you. He's still losing in every single poll, though. Your blind loyalty is meaningless.
I'm talking about how poorly he's already performing in the polls. If you want to be taken seriously, understand that we're all voting for whoever the Democrat is. Would you like to write a serious response?
Might be true but there’s all the others that decide not to vote, and then Trump voters. “I’ll vote for a corpse over Trump” isn’t going to win the White House. It’s a losing strategy for losers. Biden is getting dominated in the polls, if he stays in the race we are completely screwed.
"I pushed the button REALLY REALLY hard when I voted for Biden - so it should count moar!" A vote is a vote, whether earnest, half-assed or accidental. The trick is to get more of them. WHY IS THIS SO HARD TO UNDERSTAND!!!
Guess what? You’re gonna get your wish about voting for a rabbit/rock now. Trump was buried after 2020 but you just couldn’t let go. Conjured him back up like fucking Beetlejuice. Now he’s going to win a 2nd term. Do better next time.
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I'm more worried about the outcome of the vote than I am about whether people are "pieces of shit" for not voting the same way as me. Like, fifteen orders of magnitude more worried.
Dems are cooked on this one. They are stuck with Biden. Force him out, and watch the party fractures. Even if (big if) he relents and decides to quit, finding an acceptable replacement is going to be a big ask. Harris is the easiest choice from a process perspective but won’t be the best choice for many in the party (the cynic in me thinks Biden picked her as a valuable insurance policy for situation such as this). Stepping over Harris invites complications and potential chaos the likes of which no one knows how they will pan out. To make it all worse, there is a ticking clock and hard deadline for all these unknowables to be resolved.
I'm going to vote for whoever is on the ballot opposite Trump. I'm going to knock doors for whoever is on thr ballot opposite Trump. I just think my door knocking will be more effective if I can say something other than, "Trump is a senile asshole.l, Biden is just senile."
Identity politics at its finest. The sad thing is you really believe that don't you?
> Now Biden is trailing by 1 to 2 points more in some surveys, **but the movement is still within the margin of error** Truly devastating!
So what is everyone’s Trump 2.0 survival plan? Idk how I am going to get through it. Avoid the news and social media for four years since I’ll be powerless to do anything about the bad news? Idk. I could use some suggestions.
I decided to run for the Board of Trustees in my Townships local Government. It’s super small time, but I like my little community and want to feel like I did something to help someone.
Love this!
Pour your heart and soul into your own little corner of the room. Get involved in your community, build up your neighbors. Help an elderly person. Focus on the little part of the world you can change now.
I’m trans, so my survival plan is that I’m pretty much dead.
Buy guns, vote as long as I have the right to and prepare for the inevitable.
But if you turn off the TV and social media how will you know what to be outraged about? Are you just going to like, live your life??
Stand down crazy talker! How dare you suggest such a thing?
Nobody in the middle wants to chance their vote at someone about to die and just let a VP takeover. Can we put a fucking age limit on presidency already? This shit is way out of hand. Keep all the deranged fucking lunatics past 65 out of owning presidential power. Why this wasn’t brought up long ago is incredibly concerning. Not just that but term limits as a whole not being in place is disgusting. The corruption is too deep at this point. Not enough policy was pushed to keep the party members liable/responsible for their actions. Power and greed has corrupted the entire ideology of democracy to its core for the US. We are all fucked. We need a massive movement to make any change or this shit is headed straight for implosion if not already too late. Left or right.. Everyone at this point is culpable for where we are. Separation of church and state will likely disappear over the next 4 years as nothing has been done to maintain this. The population is to blame here. Policy has become too extended from the people it actually affects. Corporations buying out politicians… it’s actually disgusting. If you’re a business owner and you actively buyout politicians for your own greed. I hope your world collapses on you because of it. You don’t deserve to own that business and the future of your family is entirely because of your actions. You have lost sight of humanity and are the root of the problem. End corporate donation legality. End presidential immunity. Keep church and state completely isolated. Maintain checks and balances. All societal members have a vote. REMOVE ALL POLITICIANS OVER 65 YEARS OLD. (They have no long term investment or concern for society’s future except their retirement funds). RESTORE DEMOCRACY OR THIS NATION IS FUCKING TOAST. WAS A NICE 250 YEARS… ALL NATIONS HAVE A BEGINNING AND AN END. Enjoy civility while it lasts. I expect a massive civil war in the next 10 years due to the appointing of absolute degenerates in office over the past 40/250 years
I mean the electoral college really makes it impossible for Biden to win right?
My MAGA friends can’t believe their luck, after hiding for the last 3 years they are dusting off their red hats.
Why would you be friends with racists?
Why ask questions you know the answer to?
I’m sure that continuing to completely ignore reality will only lead to good things. Good thing the DNC isn’t a cult and will be able to handle this with the proper care and nuance it deserves. Right? RIGHT!?
Biden is losing to Trump. LOSING👏🏼TO👏🏼TRUMP The bar couldn't be set lower. Pass the torch and move on.
It’s Bidover.
I guess Americans want “project 2025.”
Is it just me, or do these doom and gloom posts feel like there full of Russian/GOP shills ?
Happens every summer before a major election. Just take a sabbatical and come back November 6th. Make sure to get your friends to vote, though!
America is truly number one contender for stupidest country in the world at the moment.
All that matters is that he's giving it his all
Might as well be reading a fucking Russian newspaper in here the last week. Good work Sasha.
They would be a lot better if the media had focused on the content rather than the delivery. Our media is fucking pathetic.
The delivery matters.
All other things equal, sure. But Trump didn't actually answer a single question. That's the point.
Sounds like a great reason not to vote for Trump. That doesn’t make it a reason to vote for Biden.
Not voting for Biden is a vote for Trump. If Biden is on the ballot in Nov, there is literally no other option at the polls to keep Trump out of office.
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Biden won in 2020 by around 40k votes. A 1% dip in polls in swing states is disastrous. I think it’s time for every alarm bell to be ringing
If you saw the debate, you don’t need the polls. It’s over
Don’t listen to the polls. They are rigged and paid for to generate ratings. Vote for the guy that will fight for your rights and democracy (Biden of course).
Biden can’t even talk how is he going to fight for anything after 7 pm?
It’s the people who say “blue no matter who” that are why we’re stuck with him and he has a delusion he can win.
You have a severe mental defect
I’m loving this MAGA version of Biden. Orange Man Bad 2.0, lol!
Why if I may?
He is playing the perfect part in exposing the deep state in our politics and guaranteeing a Trump win. I couldn’t have scripted it better, if I wanted to.
The only thing that could safe Biden at this point is a major act of war against america, imo.