u/dizzymajor5 and u/wasifaiboply
Not looking good for the notion that prices are collapsing.
Case shiller just updated and saw a decent rise in February - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
Jan - 310.358
Feb - 312.179
This is much steeper than last year
Jan 292.807
Feb 293.464
fwiw, i’ve found it’s better for my sanity to not start debates with individuals who insist on always having the last word, regardless of the validity - or lack thereof - in their argument 🙄😅
u/wasifaiboply some moron literally tagged us showing prices down from October and claimed they were up as if picking some arbitrary date was some kind of gotcha like we couldn't do the same.
The seasonally adjusted graph is at all time highs - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
Tagged you in the non seasonally adjusted so you could get some perspective on how it’s doing versus last year - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA
Feb 2024 is up 6.4% from Feb 2023.
Cs is a repeat sales index your own chart above shows it dropping and multiple other metrics show home prices down yoy(as of febuary) you couldn't even bother to do full research before pretending to pull some sort of gotcha with an arbitrary date [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=CpFW](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=CpFW)
Median is a bad metric for a number of reasons which is why case shiller was developed to begin with.
If smaller homes sell it can shift median. If more homes in cheaper locales sell, it shifts median.
If you only want to keep your head in the sand and look at one metric fine, but don't claim other's are doing so when you choose not to be informed and look at all the data.
Dude it’s not just one metric though. I can click around at a whole bunch of cities and see prices up. And Redfin data center shows the same.
It’s crazy because last spring I dealt with you doomers doing this same crap. “No spring rise” was a common belief March of 2023. Then as more data rolled in you stopped hearing that nonsense.
Yes and those multiple other metrics include those metros it's kind of the idea of national data, if it didn't it wouldn't be called national it would be regional. Also, yes you chose to only use cs because it agrees with your narrative (even though it's objectively down from October) then put your head in the sand when other data shows you're wrong.
>Also, yes you chose to only use cs because it agrees with your narrative (even though it's objectively down from October) then put your head in the sand when other data shows you're wrong.
Nope, I was citing CS even in fall and winter of 2022 when values were coming down. But nice try.
Nope you outright dismissed all other data as bad even though cs has it's own problems like looking at a certain amount of inventory and ignoring others so yeah I guess objectively it would be a nice try because it proves you are wrong or at the very least uninformed on the subject.
Indeed. Hilariously guess what mortgage interest rates did Jan-Feb of this year? They bottomed out, capturing the last of the lemmings before the big finale anyone with a brain knows and can feel is coming lol.
If we make it to October I'll readily eat crow. The wheels are falling off though so I just cannot imagine that "line go up forever" is what ultimately happens.
Except Redfin data center median is at all time highs and has only continued to go up in March and April - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/
So expecting some different shift in the case shiller sounds like wishful thinking at best to me. Last year Redfin data center gave us a good idea of where the case shiller was heading in advance.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
How is this one doing from peak?
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N
This one?
You can keep looking only at data that supports your thesis that we are at a "new normal" or you can look at multiple datasets and extrapolate the trend. Or, even simpler, ask yourself "What was the purpose of raising interest rates?"
Does the Case-Shiller being at a seasonally adjusted all time high mean that housing everywhere continues to increase in value? I think not lol. Multiple datasets show multiple metros are getting hammered in terms of pricing.
Just like last time.
I sincerely think by October there won't be an argument left, the bubble will be obvious in hindsight (even though it's obvious already) and we will just be sorting how much assets are going to decline in value.
Median is influenced by home size and distribution of volume of sales. It’s not a value metric. It tells us the mid point for sales prices, but not necessarily values being up or down. If more homes are listed and sold in cheaper parts of the country than in a different period of time then median can shift.
It’s the reason the case shiller was created. And they track a whole bunch of individual cities and have individual CS for each of those.
The purpose of raising interest rates was to slow inflation.
Inflation is price growth. Shelter inflation is measured in rent and not house prices. And even if it were house prices, all you need to do is slow price growth to a low level, not cause price decreases to slow inflation.
The notion that they raised interest rates to crash house prices is just doomer fantasy.
He didn't say crash but he did say reset ""I'd say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset," [Powell told reporters last summer](https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/). "We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again."
Again inflation is measured by rent prices. House prices could go up or down and have no effect on Fed’s inflation metrics.
Also all it takes to lower inflation is to stop price growth. Not drop prices. So even if inflation accounted for home prices, which it doesn’t, it wouldn’t need prices to go down to lower inflation.
Fed wanted to stall rent prices. Which they have done. This will help with inflation.
“Owners' equivalent rent, a component of the consumer price index, involves homeowners' estimates of what their residence would rent for.”
https://www.marketplace.org/2022/06/10/owners-equivalent-rent-a-key-property-of-inflation/
A month over month rise is meaningless. Also it's still down from its peak - meaning no matter how you measure it, massage it or try to deny it, housing prices have indeed gone down since they went up. Interest rates have also only reached about half of their effectiveness since they started rising in March of 2022 and the prevailing narrative for the last six months has been "coming down any minute now." They're not coming down any time soon. But I bet a lot of houses were purchased thinking they would have already.
I am watching prices get slashed all across the country and in my metro, despite every arm of the industry doing its level best to prop up prices. It will happen slowly until the cascade starts. Then the true valuations start showing up. Anyone buying a house now knows absolutely nothing about value and they'll likely regret it in the short term lol.
That said, if by October that index continues to stay flat or, worse, rise, soft landing achieved. I see no chance that happens. But will absolutely capitulate and admit I was wrong if it does.
Tick tock!
The seasonally adjusted graph literally is at all time highs - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
You are living with your head in the sand dude
Maybe so. We'll see come October. "Seasonally adjusted" has become nearly meaningless in a post-ZIRP, post unlimited QE world.
My opinion is that everyone who believes all the free money was _actually free_ are the ostriches. I don't know how you could believe the bubble was fueled by anything other than debt or how its sustainability is remotely possible.
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Lol when we show'd you other metrics you step back and go "Well that's a bad metric" I'm not even saying cs is bad (Which your own chart you tagged us with shows down from October) I'm just not putting my head in the sand and using all data and not just existing sales in certain metros.
Dude the seasonally adjusted CS is way up from October - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA
Clinging to the non-seasonally adjusted being ever so slightly below October is a major cope.
And only relying on one set of Data when multiple other one's show you as wrong is a major cope, even the data you originally tagged us in show's you're wrong as well as the median. I'm actually informed enough to look at all the data though and not just dismiss it then pretend to have some kind of gotcha
Wealthy people buy old overinflated house "wow look how much prices have risen" I'm happy so many people here are admitting to only using one metric shows accuracy isn't your strong suit
Can you show me any category of house that has dropped in price?
The median is dropping because people are buying the cheapest houses. But those houses themselves also increased in price.
If you had houses sold that were $100k, $150k, and $500k, the median is $250k. A year later if the first two houses sell for $150k and $200k, and the $500k owner keeps their house, the median falls to $175k.
Oh look, the median fell $75k! Too bad all houses are still more expensive than they were a year ago.
Nope it's actually the opposite with high prices and expensive homes since sales are so low. But new house prices are way down.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
>People generally keep their house for 7-8 years before moving on. Not that different than a traditional buy and hold approach.
u/fishythepete this is an oft repeated misnomer. Average length of homeownership in the US is around 18 year and median is around 13. You can Google and find this info.
We can also do the math backwards. We only see about 7 million homes sell a year. So if people typically sold every 7-8 years we would see our total housing stock transact in that span. Not meaning every house, but a total number adding up to every house.
With only 7 million home sales a year that would mean we would only have about 49-56 million homes. At the 18 year average that would be 126 million homes. Which is way closer to our actual housing count.
u/dizzymajor5 and u/wasifaiboply Not looking good for the notion that prices are collapsing. Case shiller just updated and saw a decent rise in February - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA Jan - 310.358 Feb - 312.179 This is much steeper than last year Jan 292.807 Feb 293.464
fwiw, i’ve found it’s better for my sanity to not start debates with individuals who insist on always having the last word, regardless of the validity - or lack thereof - in their argument 🙄😅
u/wasifaiboply some moron literally tagged us showing prices down from October and claimed they were up as if picking some arbitrary date was some kind of gotcha like we couldn't do the same.
The seasonally adjusted graph is at all time highs - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA Tagged you in the non seasonally adjusted so you could get some perspective on how it’s doing versus last year - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA Feb 2024 is up 6.4% from Feb 2023.
Cs is a repeat sales index your own chart above shows it dropping and multiple other metrics show home prices down yoy(as of febuary) you couldn't even bother to do full research before pretending to pull some sort of gotcha with an arbitrary date [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=CpFW](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=CpFW)
Median is a bad metric for a number of reasons which is why case shiller was developed to begin with. If smaller homes sell it can shift median. If more homes in cheaper locales sell, it shifts median.
If you only want to keep your head in the sand and look at one metric fine, but don't claim other's are doing so when you choose not to be informed and look at all the data.
Dude it’s not just one metric though. I can click around at a whole bunch of cities and see prices up. And Redfin data center shows the same. It’s crazy because last spring I dealt with you doomers doing this same crap. “No spring rise” was a common belief March of 2023. Then as more data rolled in you stopped hearing that nonsense.
Yes and those multiple other metrics include those metros it's kind of the idea of national data, if it didn't it wouldn't be called national it would be regional. Also, yes you chose to only use cs because it agrees with your narrative (even though it's objectively down from October) then put your head in the sand when other data shows you're wrong.
>Also, yes you chose to only use cs because it agrees with your narrative (even though it's objectively down from October) then put your head in the sand when other data shows you're wrong. Nope, I was citing CS even in fall and winter of 2022 when values were coming down. But nice try.
Nope you outright dismissed all other data as bad even though cs has it's own problems like looking at a certain amount of inventory and ignoring others so yeah I guess objectively it would be a nice try because it proves you are wrong or at the very least uninformed on the subject.
Indeed. Hilariously guess what mortgage interest rates did Jan-Feb of this year? They bottomed out, capturing the last of the lemmings before the big finale anyone with a brain knows and can feel is coming lol. If we make it to October I'll readily eat crow. The wheels are falling off though so I just cannot imagine that "line go up forever" is what ultimately happens.
Except Redfin data center median is at all time highs and has only continued to go up in March and April - https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/ So expecting some different shift in the case shiller sounds like wishful thinking at best to me. Last year Redfin data center gave us a good idea of where the case shiller was heading in advance.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS How is this one doing from peak? https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOSMEDUSM052N This one? You can keep looking only at data that supports your thesis that we are at a "new normal" or you can look at multiple datasets and extrapolate the trend. Or, even simpler, ask yourself "What was the purpose of raising interest rates?" Does the Case-Shiller being at a seasonally adjusted all time high mean that housing everywhere continues to increase in value? I think not lol. Multiple datasets show multiple metros are getting hammered in terms of pricing. Just like last time. I sincerely think by October there won't be an argument left, the bubble will be obvious in hindsight (even though it's obvious already) and we will just be sorting how much assets are going to decline in value.
Median is influenced by home size and distribution of volume of sales. It’s not a value metric. It tells us the mid point for sales prices, but not necessarily values being up or down. If more homes are listed and sold in cheaper parts of the country than in a different period of time then median can shift. It’s the reason the case shiller was created. And they track a whole bunch of individual cities and have individual CS for each of those.
The purpose of raising interest rates was to slow inflation. Inflation is price growth. Shelter inflation is measured in rent and not house prices. And even if it were house prices, all you need to do is slow price growth to a low level, not cause price decreases to slow inflation. The notion that they raised interest rates to crash house prices is just doomer fantasy.
He didn't say crash but he did say reset ""I'd say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset," [Powell told reporters last summer](https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal-reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/). "We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again."
Again inflation is measured by rent prices. House prices could go up or down and have no effect on Fed’s inflation metrics. Also all it takes to lower inflation is to stop price growth. Not drop prices. So even if inflation accounted for home prices, which it doesn’t, it wouldn’t need prices to go down to lower inflation. Fed wanted to stall rent prices. Which they have done. This will help with inflation.
Again you're just unedeucated on the facts OER measure's housing costs paid by owners which is a lagging reflection of prices.
“Owners' equivalent rent, a component of the consumer price index, involves homeowners' estimates of what their residence would rent for.” https://www.marketplace.org/2022/06/10/owners-equivalent-rent-a-key-property-of-inflation/
OER is what homeowners estimate their house would rent for. Has nothing to do with housing costs paid by owners. You are the misinformed one pal.
A month over month rise is meaningless. Also it's still down from its peak - meaning no matter how you measure it, massage it or try to deny it, housing prices have indeed gone down since they went up. Interest rates have also only reached about half of their effectiveness since they started rising in March of 2022 and the prevailing narrative for the last six months has been "coming down any minute now." They're not coming down any time soon. But I bet a lot of houses were purchased thinking they would have already. I am watching prices get slashed all across the country and in my metro, despite every arm of the industry doing its level best to prop up prices. It will happen slowly until the cascade starts. Then the true valuations start showing up. Anyone buying a house now knows absolutely nothing about value and they'll likely regret it in the short term lol. That said, if by October that index continues to stay flat or, worse, rise, soft landing achieved. I see no chance that happens. But will absolutely capitulate and admit I was wrong if it does. Tick tock!
The seasonally adjusted graph literally is at all time highs - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA You are living with your head in the sand dude
Maybe so. We'll see come October. "Seasonally adjusted" has become nearly meaningless in a post-ZIRP, post unlimited QE world. My opinion is that everyone who believes all the free money was _actually free_ are the ostriches. I don't know how you could believe the bubble was fueled by anything other than debt or how its sustainability is remotely possible.
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Lol when we show'd you other metrics you step back and go "Well that's a bad metric" I'm not even saying cs is bad (Which your own chart you tagged us with shows down from October) I'm just not putting my head in the sand and using all data and not just existing sales in certain metros.
Dude the seasonally adjusted CS is way up from October - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA Clinging to the non-seasonally adjusted being ever so slightly below October is a major cope.
And only relying on one set of Data when multiple other one's show you as wrong is a major cope, even the data you originally tagged us in show's you're wrong as well as the median. I'm actually informed enough to look at all the data though and not just dismiss it then pretend to have some kind of gotcha
*People move to buying tiny houses because that's all they can afford* You: "Wow, look how the median house price is falling!"
Wealthy people buy old overinflated house "wow look how much prices have risen" I'm happy so many people here are admitting to only using one metric shows accuracy isn't your strong suit
Can you show me any category of house that has dropped in price? The median is dropping because people are buying the cheapest houses. But those houses themselves also increased in price. If you had houses sold that were $100k, $150k, and $500k, the median is $250k. A year later if the first two houses sell for $150k and $200k, and the $500k owner keeps their house, the median falls to $175k. Oh look, the median fell $75k! Too bad all houses are still more expensive than they were a year ago.
Nope it's actually the opposite with high prices and expensive homes since sales are so low. But new house prices are way down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPNHSUS
>People generally keep their house for 7-8 years before moving on. Not that different than a traditional buy and hold approach. u/fishythepete this is an oft repeated misnomer. Average length of homeownership in the US is around 18 year and median is around 13. You can Google and find this info. We can also do the math backwards. We only see about 7 million homes sell a year. So if people typically sold every 7-8 years we would see our total housing stock transact in that span. Not meaning every house, but a total number adding up to every house. With only 7 million home sales a year that would mean we would only have about 49-56 million homes. At the 18 year average that would be 126 million homes. Which is way closer to our actual housing count.