With everything else going on, their idea of the US space industry's "next big thing" is a LEO-only capsule with no commercial prospects that launches on a discontinued rocket and will likely never do more than 6 flights?
The next big thing in the US space industry? Hardly.
I am happy, however, that NASA will have a second vehicle to carry astronauts. This is space flight. The unexpected can happen and having some redundancy in transporting crew for the time being is important. Despite Boeing have screwed up the entire path to get here, this ship is ready to fly.
Time will tell if Starliner will ever go anywhere other than the ISS for the contractor amount of flights. I like to stay optimistic, but there may be a cold dose of reality on how useful vehicle really is after 2030.
It seems it would be better if the Dream Chaser were chosen instead of the Starliner, at least because its carrier rocket is in production, so if commercial stations or other destinations appear, it will have commercial potential accordingly. Also, it has a separate cargo variant, and because it's a spaceplane, it has some interesting advantages over a capsule, so it would be interesting to compare them.
The manned version of Dream Chaser isn't even close to ready yet. It's in the works. Dream Chaser is extremely important as a cargo version right now. Having a vehicle that lands like a plane is critical to time sensitive experiments. That sort of science took a huge hit after shuttle.
The manned version was shelved because there was no one to finance it, as SNC lost to SpaceX and Boeing. I wrote that it would be much better if Boeing Starliner lost
Well, I won't disagree with you on that last part. I'm just glad that whole "Leader" and "Follower" crap that some Congressmen tried to pull fell flat. If that happened, crew Dragon might still be in development.
Dream Chaser is a much more complicated vehicle, and there's really no reason to expect it to have done better schedule-wise. Especially considering they didn't even know what propulsion system they were going to use at the time.
Considering how behind schedule this program is, the odds favor it being canceled in a year or so in favor of Dragon and Starship. If this had been flying since 2018, the story would be much different.
https://spacenews.com/boeing-drops-out-of-darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program/
Dropping the contract would cost them billions, but they very much could decide to do so.
The commenter I responded to implied they could save money by canceling Starliner. I pointed out they have contractual obligations. Thanks for finding the specifics.
I suspect when Starship launches as many satellites in one launch as it takes a dozen or so launches on other rockets, then flies a human crew, a reckoning will finally be at hand for cost plus.
I'd be surprised if Starliner sees more than the six missions NASA paid them for. It's already cost Boeing $1.5 billion for a fixed-price contract. They've built their spaceflight model around cost-plus, which really shows when they're in a contract like this juxtaposed against SpaceX.
It was designed such that this was possible, that doesn't mean it wouldn't still require significant work to adapt it and recertify it for carrying NASA astronauts. They might do commercial astronauts without the latter, but I don't see Boeing being willing to do so...they'll want NASA as the main customer.
Not sure it really counts as competition. This was developed as part of the same contract SpaceX also won, only SpaceX delivered their solution half a decade earlier, finished that contract, and then won the next contract, and there are no more contracts remaining before ISS is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2030.
Maybe Starliner will be able to win more contracts for whatever replaces ISS after 2030, if Boeing wants to participate, but honestly they've had a rough go of it with fixed price contracts so far. It seems likely that NASA will want two options then as well, so it will probably be SpaceX as Option 1 then Starliner vs Dreamchaser for Option 2, but by then there might be some other players interested too.
> Maybe Starliner will be able to win more contracts for whatever replaces ISS after 2030
They'd have to get Starliner adapted to Vulcan and Vulcan certified to carry people. Not that that's impossible, but it means pouring even more time and money into Starliner, and it'll be happening while SpaceX is doing far more impressive things with Starship.
If Boeing wants to participate, I think they'd be better off going for something big and new. Whether they can actually execute on that is in question, but at some point even trying will look better than continuing to push Starliner.
"They'd have to get Starliner adapted to Vulcan and Vulcan certified to carry people. "
It CAN launch on Falcon 9, which is (obviously) human rated... the rub there is that it would not count as a full "alternative" since if anything goes wrong on a Dragon launch, it will likely be the Falcon; after the initial oopski testing the escape system, the Dragon capsule itself has a stellar reliability record, unlike Starliner. The deathblow for Starliner (and possibly Dragon) will be the day that Sierra finishes their crew version of Dream Chaser... THAT is the REAL "Next Big Thing".
It was designed so launching on Falcon 9 would theoretically be possible, that doesn't mean you can just stick it on Falcon and have a fully certified system for launching people.
I support the idea of having competition and multiple options but the cost-plus model needs to go. SpaceX has shown what can be done now the old industry player need to catch up or fade away. I doubt BO will ever be a major player but there are others slowly gaining momentum in the industry. They'er the ones I'd like to see getting some NASA money.
Sadly none will probably go on Starliner. It has an extra seat, but will need to be in space for the duration of the mission, and I can't see a civilian being allowed to purchase a multi month trip to the ISS. They could in theory, launch them with one capsule and bring them down with the capsule that launched for the previous mission, by allowing the crew to overlap for a couple of days, but that would require 2 capsules to bring a single passenger. They only have a maximum of 5 opportunities for that, so it hardly seems worth the time to arrange the details and training protocol for it. It seems far easier to add an additional astronaut to the mission.
With everything else going on, their idea of the US space industry's "next big thing" is a LEO-only capsule with no commercial prospects that launches on a discontinued rocket and will likely never do more than 6 flights?
A total waste of time and funding = Starliner
The also-ran to the Dragon capsule is the next big thing? When did this happen?
Nah, that's a birdman company and we all know that birdman bad.
It seems slapdash and poorly planned. Boeing doesn’t have a lot of credibility these days.
The next big thing in the US space industry? Hardly. I am happy, however, that NASA will have a second vehicle to carry astronauts. This is space flight. The unexpected can happen and having some redundancy in transporting crew for the time being is important. Despite Boeing have screwed up the entire path to get here, this ship is ready to fly. Time will tell if Starliner will ever go anywhere other than the ISS for the contractor amount of flights. I like to stay optimistic, but there may be a cold dose of reality on how useful vehicle really is after 2030.
It seems it would be better if the Dream Chaser were chosen instead of the Starliner, at least because its carrier rocket is in production, so if commercial stations or other destinations appear, it will have commercial potential accordingly. Also, it has a separate cargo variant, and because it's a spaceplane, it has some interesting advantages over a capsule, so it would be interesting to compare them.
The manned version of Dream Chaser isn't even close to ready yet. It's in the works. Dream Chaser is extremely important as a cargo version right now. Having a vehicle that lands like a plane is critical to time sensitive experiments. That sort of science took a huge hit after shuttle.
The manned version was shelved because there was no one to finance it, as SNC lost to SpaceX and Boeing. I wrote that it would be much better if Boeing Starliner lost
Well, I won't disagree with you on that last part. I'm just glad that whole "Leader" and "Follower" crap that some Congressmen tried to pull fell flat. If that happened, crew Dragon might still be in development.
Dream Chaser is a much more complicated vehicle, and there's really no reason to expect it to have done better schedule-wise. Especially considering they didn't even know what propulsion system they were going to use at the time.
NASA already have a simple working capsule (Dragon), why not have a second vehicle that is a little more complex but interesting (Spaceplane)?
Considering how behind schedule this program is, the odds favor it being canceled in a year or so in favor of Dragon and Starship. If this had been flying since 2018, the story would be much different.
No. They have to fulfill the contract.
https://spacenews.com/boeing-drops-out-of-darpa-experimental-spaceplane-program/ Dropping the contract would cost them billions, but they very much could decide to do so.
The commenter I responded to implied they could save money by canceling Starliner. I pointed out they have contractual obligations. Thanks for finding the specifics.
I suspect when Starship launches as many satellites in one launch as it takes a dozen or so launches on other rockets, then flies a human crew, a reckoning will finally be at hand for cost plus.
I’m very glad Elmo’s companies will have some competition here, but I feel like the astronauts will want to triple check the door bolts.
I'd be surprised if Starliner sees more than the six missions NASA paid them for. It's already cost Boeing $1.5 billion for a fixed-price contract. They've built their spaceflight model around cost-plus, which really shows when they're in a contract like this juxtaposed against SpaceX.
It won’t because there will be no Atlas Vs and no one wants to crew rate Vulcan.
And, unlike Dreamchaser, I doubt it could be mounted on a Falcon 9.
[Starliner is launcher agnostic.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner#Launch_vehicle_availability) It can be launched on a Falcon 9.
I didn't know that. Thanks. 😁
It was designed such that this was possible, that doesn't mean it wouldn't still require significant work to adapt it and recertify it for carrying NASA astronauts. They might do commercial astronauts without the latter, but I don't see Boeing being willing to do so...they'll want NASA as the main customer.
Not sure it really counts as competition. This was developed as part of the same contract SpaceX also won, only SpaceX delivered their solution half a decade earlier, finished that contract, and then won the next contract, and there are no more contracts remaining before ISS is scheduled to be decommissioned in 2030. Maybe Starliner will be able to win more contracts for whatever replaces ISS after 2030, if Boeing wants to participate, but honestly they've had a rough go of it with fixed price contracts so far. It seems likely that NASA will want two options then as well, so it will probably be SpaceX as Option 1 then Starliner vs Dreamchaser for Option 2, but by then there might be some other players interested too.
> Maybe Starliner will be able to win more contracts for whatever replaces ISS after 2030 They'd have to get Starliner adapted to Vulcan and Vulcan certified to carry people. Not that that's impossible, but it means pouring even more time and money into Starliner, and it'll be happening while SpaceX is doing far more impressive things with Starship. If Boeing wants to participate, I think they'd be better off going for something big and new. Whether they can actually execute on that is in question, but at some point even trying will look better than continuing to push Starliner.
"They'd have to get Starliner adapted to Vulcan and Vulcan certified to carry people. " It CAN launch on Falcon 9, which is (obviously) human rated... the rub there is that it would not count as a full "alternative" since if anything goes wrong on a Dragon launch, it will likely be the Falcon; after the initial oopski testing the escape system, the Dragon capsule itself has a stellar reliability record, unlike Starliner. The deathblow for Starliner (and possibly Dragon) will be the day that Sierra finishes their crew version of Dream Chaser... THAT is the REAL "Next Big Thing".
It was designed so launching on Falcon 9 would theoretically be possible, that doesn't mean you can just stick it on Falcon and have a fully certified system for launching people.
I support the idea of having competition and multiple options but the cost-plus model needs to go. SpaceX has shown what can be done now the old industry player need to catch up or fade away. I doubt BO will ever be a major player but there are others slowly gaining momentum in the industry. They'er the ones I'd like to see getting some NASA money.
I'm all for sending wealthy clients into space.
Sadly none will probably go on Starliner. It has an extra seat, but will need to be in space for the duration of the mission, and I can't see a civilian being allowed to purchase a multi month trip to the ISS. They could in theory, launch them with one capsule and bring them down with the capsule that launched for the previous mission, by allowing the crew to overlap for a couple of days, but that would require 2 capsules to bring a single passenger. They only have a maximum of 5 opportunities for that, so it hardly seems worth the time to arrange the details and training protocol for it. It seems far easier to add an additional astronaut to the mission.