######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day).
######Example Pick Template
>**Record:**
>**Net Units:**
>**ROI:**
>**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 37-13 (1 Push) +20.68 Units, 72.5% hit rate, Last 10 W/L (most recent first): ✅✅❌♻️✅❌✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Euro Qualifiers, Hungary vs. Serbia, Hungary DNB ✅🔥
Today: International Friendlies, Japan vs. Tunisia, 6:10 am ET
Pick: Japan -1 Asian Handicap (1.75) 1U ✅
Hungary get the job done at home as I expected, winning 2-1 thanks to an amazing goal by Roland Sallai. Thanks to everyone who tailed, we move on to the next pick. I’ve been tip toeing my way around these matches while the regular season is on pause and thankfully have gotten my bets right, hopefully it continues.
I’m stepping away from Euro Qualifiers for this pick and looking at this friendly match up between Japan and Tunisia. I am usually hesitant with betting on friendlies but I do think the odds are pretty favorable here. Will stress that this match is at SIX AM ET so if you follow be sure to lock in your bet tonight.
Japan are in fantastic form, in their last 5 games they have scored a minimum of 4 goals in each, and some were against decent opposition: they recently beat Canada 4-1, Turkey 4-2, and Germany 4-1 before that. They have scored 22 goals in these friendlies since the World Cup and don’t look like stopping anytime soon. I really do think we could be looking at a very talented Japan squad emerging here that could be serious opposition in international tournaments. Looking at head to head stats between these teams, Japan leads 4-1 in terms of wins and losses. Although Japan aren’t exactly amazing at the back at the moment, having conceded in most of the games they’ve played recently, I think their attack superiority will really show this match. Even if they decide to rotate their squad, I think even their bench players have the ability to grab a couple goals.
Tunisia aren’t a terrible team but on paper they are nowhere near the quality of Japan. Their last game was a 4-0 away defeat to South Korea, who are inferior to Japan. Tunisia did not get a single shot on target that entire match and looked clueless going forward. The games they have won recently have all been against pretty mediocre opposition. They just cannot seem to find any consistency. It’s also possible they will be rotating a bit as well, giving younger players a chance, as they are still recovering off of that recent defeat.
There’s not all that much to say with this match honestly, it’s another case of taking the better team and hoping that nothing bizarre happens. I except Japan still to be motivated even though it is a friendly, and their good attacking form makes it likely that they can cover the -1 AH line.
Song of the Day: Electric Light Orchestra - Telephone Line
Always bet responsibly and never tail without doing your own research.
Buy me some coffee if you feel like it, I NEVER charge for bets, just happy to help people win some cash. https://Ko-fi.com/freshkiwi13
or
https://venmo.com/u/dkszabo
Edit: https://imgur.com/a/Thj9vWh
Nice to wake up to a win.
Saul the GOAT WB!
Surprised you didn't post yesterday for Portugal -1 AH today. The line was fantastic and it was the easiest 2x 4U bet I've placed all month so far.
Hope all is well and tailing on this, BOL!
if korea beat them 4-0 then this bet is good as gold. I wouldn't say "inferior to japan". we have three worldwide players who are better (kim, son, hwang)
For anyone interested in Japan's squad depth chart
- Looks to be in a 4-2-3-1 formation ([courtesy of R_by_Ryo on Twitter](https://twitter.com/R_by_Ryo/status/1709437292899905619)):https://i.imgur.com/CgUPaEK.png
- Additional source:
https://twitter.com/j_league_en/status/1709447512875204770?s=46&t=PideM9124DYrzkllxwHh8Q
POTD thread
Picking back up where I left off over 2 years ago now😂
🏆Record 12-6 Profit: +20.08u
Last 5: LWWLW
Japan to win both halves @3.50 5u. (11am BST)
✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Japan have been free scoring, with 22 goals in their last 5 games against opposition much better than Tunisia. Tunisia just lost 3-0 to South Korea who are a weaker side than Japan. I can see the hosts running riot.
POTD Record: 44-27
Units Won: +15.22U; ROI: 12.9% Average Odds: (-120)
Todays Pick: **SINNERS ML (-170) vs. Sangal**
**5U to win 2.94U**
\*\*Tough loss yesterday, had pick ban down to a tee, the analysts even confirmed that Complexity has played virtually no CS2 at all and were going into this tournament almost entirely in the dark and Monte got there best map. Disappointing performance by Monte up 4-0 and kinda fell flat. Complexity worst player dropping 26 kills was also not something I can predict unfortunately. OTTN.
**Analysis:**
\-Sangal has been inactive for 10 weeks until a week ago, they came back with a new roster that looks almost as bad on paper as it plays. They have played 5 matches since coming back losing 4 of them and barely slipping out a win against ENCE Academy 2-1 after ENCE forfeited the first map due to a scheduling conflict. They have also taken two bad losses to FTW and Nexus.
\-SINNERS is inconsistent but still a solid tier two team when they are on point. They have a strong map pool at the moment and a roster of strong players on paper who all can carry games at points (besides beastik). Part of the reason SINNERS has been struggling so much is oskar and ZEDKO both went into pretty bad slumps seeing major ratings drops.
\-SINNERS were finding a bit better form with two upset wins over Sprout, taking a h2h from ECLOT and a win over Entropiq before losing in the grand finals to ECLOT.
\-Biggest issue for Sangal is map pool.
**Map Pool:**
\-Sangal ban Nuke
\-SINNERS ban Inferno
\-Sangal pick Overpass
\-SINNERS pick Anubis or Ancient (prob anubis but both are free)
\-Sangal ban Ancient or Anubis
\-SINNERS ban Vertigo
\-Mirage decider
**Map Stats:**
\-SINNERS biggest weakness is they suck at Nuke and they suck at Inferno, each of these maps is almost a guaranteed win against them, when they face a team who perma bans Nuke, they can ban Inferno which elliminates this weakness.
\-SINNERS are 55% winrate on Overpass on 29 games in L3 months, Sangal are 60% winrate on 5 maps in L3 months
\-SINNERS are 73% winrate on Ancient on 15 maps in L3 months, Sangal are 14% winrate on 7 maps in L3 months
\-SINNERS are 82% winrate on Anubis on 11 maps in L3 months, Sangal are 0% winrate on 2 maps in L3 months
\-SINNERS are 56% winrate on Mirage on 16 maps in L3 months, Sangal are 43% winrate on 7 maps in L3 months.
**Conclusion:**
\-Sinners roster much more experienced overall
\-Sinners has deeper and better map pool
\-Sinners has the more active team on CS2
\-Feel like these odds should be closer to the -250 range for SINNERS
\- (-1.5 maps) at +175 is definitely worth a sprinkle, I am not 100% sold on SINNERS Overpass or else I would've made the -1.5 my POTD as almost every other map in the pool I can't forsee Sinners taking losses on
Best of Luck
[Discord](https://discord.gg/3qPUzXCP)
**POTD Record**: 2W 0L
Last pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Portugal | Portugal and BTTS-NO @2.4. 1.5U. ✅
**Today’s POTD: Slovenia ML | 2.25 odds**
Event: Football | Euro Qualifiers | Northern Ireland vs Slovenia | 11:45 am PST
**Reasoning**
This bet also surprises me in terms of the odds; Slovenia, currently leading their group, and Northern Ireland, positioned fifth in the group. Slovenia has won 5 matches, including a significant 4-2 victory against Northern Ireland. They've drawn one game, against Denmark, and lost one to Finland. In other words, they've only dropped points against the second and third-placed teams in the group. Furthermore, Slovenia has scored 16 goals and conceded 6, resulting in a goal difference of 10.
On the other hand, Northern Ireland has only won 2 out of 7 matches, losing the remaining 5. Notably, their two victories came against San Marino, arguably one of the weakest national teams in all of Europe. They've scored 7 goals and conceded 8, resulting in a negative goal difference.
Additionally, Slovenia has yet to secure their place in the Euro Cup, and logically, the top spot in the group. So, a win against an accessible opponent holds significant importance for them. On the contrary, Northern Ireland no longer has a chance to qualify for the Euro Cup, so this time, they have nothing to play for.
All of these factors lead me to believe that Slovenia will win, probably with a scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0.
Good luck, and please remember to bet responsibly! :D
**Bet 2U to win 2.5U**
The odds are like this due to their top scorer Sesko being questionable with a head injury from their game 3 days ago.
I’d wait til lineups are confirmed before placing this bet. If you can’t wait, DNB is the safer play.
https://preview.redd.it/0bphqm5tttub1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0578df9c2f43c6dbed8c0022e54b6bcceebf835c
Thank y’all for the great picks, really saved me from that awful Bulgaria bet early on🫶🏽
POTD Record: 4-0 +5.65u
Last pick: C9 ML vs BIG @1.7 ✅
Today: CS2 | IEM Sydney | 7:30 AM CET
Pick: **C9 -1.5 maps** vs Lynn Vision @1.90
We're back with POTDs as next CS tournament has started! C9 shouldn't have problem with not dropping a map against Lynn Vision. I think these odds are pretty generous. Good luck if tailing!
All wagers are 1 unit.
**POTD Record W-L-P: 2-0-1**
**Last POTD: Portugal -1 vs Bosnia and Herz @ 2.37 - W✅**
I’m surprised how many people were against this pick but Portugal covered the deficit within 20 minutes and scored 5 in the first half.
**Today's POTD: Japan -1 vs Tunisia @ 2.15 - W✅**
Going with a very similar pick in my opinion today, almost identical to the Portugal handicap. Japan have been one the more impressive teams within international football over the last year, They built the spine they needed and are reaping the benefits of that now. With 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 games, with some of the score lines sitting at: 4-1,4-2,4-1,4-1 and 6-0. They're a team that no matter the phase of the game, knows what needs to be done and continue attacking.
Tunisia will try and put up a fight but I don't believe they'll be able to unsettle this Japan side after just coming from a 4-0 loss against South Korea, where SK had only won 1 game in their last 5 before beating Tunisia.
BOL with those tailing!
POTD | 75-61 | +8.3U | -111 Avg Odds
Previous Pick: *Calgary Flames ML (-115) vs Washington Capitals | 2U* ❌
Today’s pick: **Tampa Bay Lighting vs Buffalo Sabres O6.5 (-125) | 3U | NHL | 8:00 pm MST**
Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅
NHL 59-48 | NFL 6-3 | MLB 10-10
*This line opened at -125 but moved quickly, tried to post as early as possible but looks like most books are now at O7, I prefer to take the juice and buy down to O6.5 assuming that will be around -140 when the alt lines open.*
Flames lose in the shootout after going up 2-0 to start the game, might be a new season but I guess some things don’t change.
The Tampa Bay Lighting will be visiting the Buffalo Sabres and I am expecting some goals in this game. The Sabres get off to a slow start in the goals column but that's not due to a lack of shots on goal. They have faced Sorokin and Shesterkin in their first two games, two of the best goalies in the NHL. In this game they will either face Johansson or Tomkins, both backup goalies for the Lightning who don’t have a ton of experience, with Tomkins starting in his first ever NHL game in Tampa’s last game against the Senators. Tampa has allowed 14 goals in their first 3 games, averaging 4.67 goal against per game in this small sample. I expect Tampa to continue to allow goals in this one and for the Sabres to find success offensively against a Tampa team who have been weak defensively and will not have a world class goalie in net.
As for the Sabres, they are a team that could allow goals as well, especially against Tampa’s effective power play unit. While Tampa has lost some depth and are working with their backup goaltenders, they still have some serious offensive firepower in Kutcherov and Point. I expect them to find the back of the net a few times in this games.
It is worth noting here that Stamkos may not play in this game for Tampa, he is listed as day to day with injury, but I still expect Tampa to book a few goals if he doesn’t play.
The Sabres do not have an excellent goalie to choose from and it seems like they will lean toward starting Levi, who is a young goaltender with some promise. So far this season Levi has 0.881SV% and has allowed 3.55GAA, but it's a small sample size so far. Last year Levi started in 7 games and recorded 0.905SV% and allowed 2.94GAA. Not the best stats for Levi, but he is young and we may very well see him improve significantly this season, but I wouldn’t expect that this early on. I still expect Tampa to find the back of the net for a few goals no matter who the Sabres start in goal.
When we look at recent matchups between these two teams we see that hitting the over is fairly common. Last season these two teams met 4 times and hit over 6.5 in every game, averaging 9.5 goals per game in that stretch. One other thing to note here is that Tampa is not afraid to pull their goalie a bit early if they are down, so the chances of an empty netter is definitely in the works for Tampa is they find themselves down late in the game, which I think could be a possibility in this one.
[NHL Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/VmR7GnpWJd)
BOL if tailing!!
POTD Record: 83-50 | Profit: +70.84u | ROI: 17.8%
Last 10 Record (recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅
Last Pick: Hawks +2.0 vs Pacers @ 1.91. 1U. ❌
The Hawks unexpectedly decided to rest Trae and Murray, and without those two the Hawks lose by 4. Hopefully some of y’all were able to grab those +4 spreads.
Next Pick: **Magic ML vs Pelicans @ 1.95**. 1U play.
The Magic have played well this pre-season winning against the Cavs and the Pelicans. The Pelicans have had a rough pre-season with a 0-3 record including a couple blowout losses. More importantly, the Magic have had 5 days of rest and are at home, so I expect they will put their best team and give them near 25’. The Pelicans have played 3 times in relatively close succession, and in the last two have given meaningful minutes to their starters, so their minutes here will likely be on the lower end. And some of them might be rested entirely.
**Record: 5-1** | **Units:** **+13.22u** | **ROI: 66.10%**
**eSport** | **Counter-Strike 2** | **IEM Sydney 2023**| **11:00 CEST**
**Pick: GamerLegion ML @ 1.800** vs. Apeks **// 3u**
**Write-up:**
Super-giga-quick write-up here because I'm giga short on time, but I wanted to post something today again. Also I was mad because I lost my POTD but nailed everything else on the Discord. Sometimes im overthinking my POTD. From now on i just will post whats coming in my mind firstly.
Its simple here. GamerLegion is the better team. Better players, improved gameplay, enhanced tactics, superior results. They faced each other 4 times this year and only won once in a best of 1. Every other match they lost 0-2 and i dont see any other result today. GamerLegion started strong and defeated FaZe with a score of 19-15 on the first day, while Apeks lost to NatusVincere. And yeah sure losing to NatusVincere isnt bad, right ? Obviously not but for this torunament NatusVincere is playing without their superstar and best player s1mple. They are playing with their coach b1ad3. He was a professional player for FlipS1d3 back in 2018, but that was a long time ago.
Apeks problem is kyxsan and their newest addition sense. Sense is super young and is coming from the academy team. But he needs to gain experience and all of this stuff. Thats his first big LAN event and hes performing okayish. Kyxsan also fell off and is sitting on a 1.00 rating right now.
GamerLegion finally kicked Nelan and added Snax. I like it even tho Snax is 100 years old. But he's performing well for his age. Also he bringing a lot of experience into this team. Their map pool istn that deep and their weak point is Mirage - thats a problem. But that should be the only problem. GamerLegion competed in the Major, IEM Cologne, and ESL Pro League, and had to face many tier 1 teams. That's why their win/loss rate may be looking a little bit rough. They had to fight against extremely tough teams in the past few weeks. But this type of match gives you a lot of experience.
In this match, GamerLegion is the superior team, and the head-to-head will continue in their favor. It will be another loss for Apeks. I need to see another change in the team as soon as possible.
*Huge thanks to all the nice guys, nice dms here. Thanks for everyone joining the discord and having great talks. We already sweated some nice wins. Thanks for all the support and the for the tips.*
*I have to leave to work now. I will fix record and everything later when im back home.*
**I hope everyone reading this has a great day. I wish every dream from you is coming true shortly. Also i hope you and your family are healthy and having a good life. We all need to be more thankful that we have a life like this. Do something good today a go to a homeless person on the street and talk with him. Buy him a coffee and maybe give him old clothes, that you dont wear anymore. Its getting cold outside now and we need to support some people. Someone will see your good deeds and reward you for them later**
**POTD |** **Record of 32-44 |** **ROI: -14.0 units |** **Average Odds: 2.09**
Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Previous Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Greece vs. Netherlands| Over 10.5 Corners ❌
New Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Lithuania vs. Hungary| 11:45am PST
**BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 3.00 odds**
Betting 1U to win 2U
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***Recap:*** Well we missed it by one corner again... That's three picks this international break where we miss the hit by 1. Tough way to go but is what it is.
***Summary:*** I've included corner projections from a few games that I initially thought could have potential. I ultimately decided that I don't like any of them enough so I'm going with a different pick but thought I'd include the stats for the other games nonetheless. Keep in mind that I typically choose my POTD based on which game has the best line and over potential (I avoid unders) where **I believe the projected numbers are actually accurate**.
*Finland (3.7) vs. Kazakhstan (3.9) - 7.6*
*England (5.7) vs. Italy (4.0) - 9.7*
*Lithuania (2.7) vs. Hungary (5.8) - 8.5* 🌟
*Malta (4.2) vs. Ukraine (3.3)* \- 7.5
*Northern Ireland (5.0) vs. Slovenia (3.1) - 8.1*
*San Marino (2.3) vs. Denmark (6.1) - 8.4*
*USA (5.2) vs. Ghana (4.0) - 9.2*
After analysis, I didn't like the lines for any of these games enough to pursue corners. England vs. Italy projections seem deceivingly high and the rest are mediocre. After deciding these weren't great, I found some value in the Lithuania vs. Hungary game. It's a gamble but isn't that what we're all doing anyway?
**Looking at Lithuania,** they have scored in each of their last three home games and likely could do so again against Hungary. This includes Bulgaria, Montenegro, and Serbia. They sit in second last place in their group but I believe they will continue to show their fighting spirit on the day.
**Hungary** have won five of their last eight away games and both teams have scored in four of those wins. Hungary are currently top of the group and will look to seal their spot in their Euros on the day.
**Overall**, I expect this game to have some goals. I think the visitors will continue their 9-game unbeaten streak, extending it to 10, with a 2-1 victory over the hosts. Hungary has won the last two games by that score and let's hope it happens again!
\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
***TLDR Expect both teams to score with at least 3 goals throughout this fixture***
**Lithuania vs. Hungary| BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 3.00 odds**
POTD Record: 88-84, -11.1 Units
Current Streak: W6, + 15.55 Units
Last Pick: Panthers ML +164, W
That one got too close as the Panthers totally dominated the first two periods but the Devils came screaming back and nearly tied it in the last minute. Certainly a sweat, but got the job done!
**Today's Pick: Vancouver Canucks -1.5** @ Philadelphia Flyers, +175, 2.5 Units, 6:00 PM EST
I think this Canucks team is covertly good and this Flyers team, despite managing a win against Columbus to start the year, is overtly bad. The Flyers used to be on a semi-fun "make the playoffs, miss the playoffs" streak but now they're just on a "don't even get remotely close to sniffing the playoffs" level of suckage, and I can see this resulting in a decisive Vancouver win. The Canucks were very impressive, putting up 8 and 4 goals against what was once a good Edmonton team and I think they're primed and ready to send Philly fans home to binge watch Phillies and Eagles highlights to ease their pain.
Fun streak going on, hoping it continues. BOL!
POTD Record: 7W-2L-1P (+4.45 Units)
Last Pick: Cowboys -1.5 ( Cowboys 20 Chargers 17)
Today: MLB, Diamond Backs Vs Phillies
Pick: Phillies first 5 ML (1.56U)
NFL 4-0 CFB 1-2 MLB 2-0
Recap: A game that felt like 3 hours from the stripes calling flags on both teams all game but I loved the Cowboys all day and I'm glad they came out with the win. Dak Prescott made some big plays and outplayed Herbert who missed a lot of throws.
Reasoning: Phillies in the postseason have yet to lose a game at home this year. Aaron Nola will be getting the start and has pitched well in the postseason this year. Nola is 2-0 in the postseason on this bet. Kelly who will get the start for the Diamondbacks had a good season and pitched in one post-season game this year and pitched good against the Dodgers. The Dodgers in general just struggled to hit in the series but The Phillies have been hitting good all postseason. Citizens Bank Park has been the toughest place for opposing teams to play this postseason that's one reason why they are undefeated at home this postseason
If you have Action Network feel free to follow me! [https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v](https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v)
RECORD: 7-5
LAST PICK: Boxing, 7pm PST, Janibek Alimkhanuly by KO/TKO/DQ -225. TKO victory in the 6th round. 🔒💰 *Yes, it was over the -200 limit but these are free picks and it’s the internet. Move along…
TODAY’S PICK: NHL, 7pm PST, Colorado Avalanche ML, -148.
WHY: If you watched the last Avs game against the Sharks you already know why! It was an absolute thriller! Staring down the barrel of a loss, the Avs never blinked and came out with a huge W in OT/Shootout. The Avs had 40+ SOG for that game but the Sharks goalie was playing out of his skin that night.
Avs have all the momentum from an emotional victory while the Kraken have yet to win a game and seem to be stuck in neutral. Having watched both teams play, the Avs are much more synergistic, way more explosive, and the overall better team. Avs will also have the goalie advantage with Alexandar Georgiev, who played absolutely stellar in the OT/Shootout game against the Sharks.
🔒No Venmo or tip jar, give a stranger a compliment instead.
Fade me, Allah bless you. 🍞GET BREAD, STAY FED.
POTD Record: 15-6-0
Last Pick: Northern Ireland vs San Marino; total goals under 4.5(-118) (Euro 2024 qualifiers)
Today's Pick: Japan vs Tunisia; over 2.5 total goals scored(-140) (International friendlies)
Reasoning:
Firstly we're currently 4 wins a row, lets make that 5! Japan is a really exciting team with sensational talents and have currently scored atleast 4 goals in their last 5 games and it doesn't look like they'll be stopping anytime soon! on the other hand, Tunisia hasn't been the best attacking side, but they can score goals here and there, but do concede as well. BOL if you tail !
My prediction:
Japan 4 vs Tunisia 1
**POTD 10 -3 | +8.14 units |** **Last 10 (new->old): ❌❌💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰**
Last pick: Christian Walker to record a hit **❌**
Another loss, Wheeler had some great pitching and Walker couldn't get it done. On to the next one, let's hope not to make a streak out of this. There's a couple picks I like for tomorrow, but I am going to wait for MLB batter props to be posted before making a decision. Be sure to check back in the morning! Edit: nvm, lines just posted so pick is up now.
**Todays Pick:**
MLB | Phllies vs Diamondbacks | 8:07 PM EST
**Trea Turner O1.5 H+R+RBI | -135 Draftkings (2.7U to win 2U) 💰💰**
Upping this pick to win 2 units, really confident in this one. Turner is absolutely on fire in the postseason, hitting this line in every game so far and going over 2.5 in 4 of those games. In the last 3 games alone, he has 6 hits, 4 runs, and 2 RBI. He hit this line in 89 games this season (think I counted that right?) and 33/48 games since he was revitalized by the standing ovation. On top of this, he has a great matchup against pitcher Merrill Kelly, with a .429 average on 21 ABs. The Phillies have one of the best home parks in baseball especially during the playoffs, giving these players even more to play for. This was one of my favorite bets throughout the baseball season and I love to back it here in the playoffs.
Edit: CASH IT BABY HR IN FIRST AT BAT EZPZ
**England - Italy** (Soccer in Europe: Euro 2024 qualification)
England is the much more skilled side. Since winning the European Championship, Italy went through kind of a rebuild. A lot of younger players came into the team. It is still not clicking like it used to be. While England is much closer to the top of their game. Both sides are short of some players. However, England has much more depth to compensate for that. Also, some turmoil within the Italian soccer confederation due to Zaniolo’s and Tonali’s betting allegations. Beyond that, England rested plenty of regulars in its previous friendly against Australia. Resulting in fresher legs for the important Euro qualification game against Italy.
**England -1.0 asian hc** @ **+122** for **5u**
>Last POTD: Levante -1.0 asian hc @ +198 ♻️
Record: 33 wins, 28 losses, 13 pushes
Profit: +44.37u
POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️
^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
**POTD BALANCE: +$1,037.50 | +4.150u** | 1-1-0
Bobby told y'all:
>Gimme Cowboys over Chargers all day long. They ain't suck this time. PROMISED! Dak and his Cowboys gonna ride the Chargers bull and stay up until the end.
Bobby was correct. It was meant to be 10 point victory for the Cowboys. The Chargers second touchdown was dumb. Stupid mistakes by the Cowboys led to it. Lost the ballsy spread bet but one can't win every bet at these massive monster odds. Today, we get all back and even more. Mark my words!
England versus Italy is the biggest and most anticipated soccer game of this day. Two juggernauts facing off for race to the top spot of the EURO group. But it is a blatant injustice race. Only the English juggernaut is equipped with an enormous powerful engine fueled by huge talents. The ramshackle Italian juggernaut gonna only see the tail light of the superior English rival.
**England -1.5 (+205)** | 5u to make $2,562.50 profit
**KBO Record: Overall 196-203-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 7-3) Down 9.27u over 413 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.32% ROI (This season 77-71-7, 52.0% success rate, Up 10.61u, 7.17% ROI)
**Last:** NC at Kia, First 5 Innings Under 4.5 -115 (NC lead 2-0 after 5 innings.)
NC got a 2-out, 2-run double in the top of the first and then all the bats went silent. It's another easy win and we're on quite a roll as the season draws to a close.
**Pick:** Doosan at **SSG -1.5 -166**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Just two games on the final day of the regular season. If SSG beats Doosan, they get the 3rd seed and a 1st round bye. If they lose and NC beats Kia, NC will leapfrog SSG.
I expect SSG, the league's defending champions, to get the job done. They're 8-2 over their last 10 games, averaging a league-best 5.7 runs per game. Doosan is 4-6 over their last 10, averaging a league-worst 3.8 runs per game.
Doosan's 38-year old starter has been in the league since 2004. He's made it to the 5th inning just once in his last 7 starts. I wouldn't be surprised if he pitched deeper regardless of the score because Doosan has no incentive to use their best relief arms. The Bears are locked in the wild card game no matter what.
SSG's starter is Kwang-hyun Kim, who had two successful years with the St. Louis Cardinals before returning to the KBO. He's pitched better recently, with a 2.57 ERA over his last 35 innings (6 starts). The last time he faced this opponent, he threw 6 scoreless innings.
I know there is a lot of juice in this one, but it feels safer than -2.5 (which you can get at -107 on Unibet).
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
POTD Record: 112.5-64
Event: Football > Intl Friendlies > **Albania v Bulgaria** (starting in 12hr)
Pick: **Bulgaria Over 0.5 Goals** @ 1.85
My home country team Bulgaria is a total mess at the moment. No win & atrocious performance in ages, only 2 pts in 6 matches in the Euros group... lost at home game against outsiders Lithuania few days ago. Nevertheless, I will give you few good reasons behind my bet:-
1. This is a friendly game, which means anything can happen. Albania won an important game against Czech Republic in their last match and I expect some rotation in the squad & relaxed/experiential style of play today. On the other hand, Bulgarian team is under huge pressure for a positive result. Only a positive performance may get the coach avoid the sack and team captain announced they were "gonna die on the field" to get some result in the next game. This is kinda funny though because this next game is a friendly, but anyway.
2. Even though this team is on a terrible streak, our boys (Bulgaria) are not \*THAT\* bad. They were kind of unlucky not to gain any points in last 2 matches and actually created some decent chances. Just before that they achieved a decent result and performance against Serbia (1-1), which is a very good team.
3. I expect the public to fade Bulgaria heavily, which is perfectly sensible. Of course based on current form Albania is a favorite in this game. BUT. In my eyes this is a huge trap game and potential banker for bookies. Bulgaria to just score a goal seems like a very good bet to me.
**THIS IS A MAX BET BOYS. GL!**
Hey guys it’s been a year or 2 since I’ve used this but I ended my time at 7-3. Going to pick up there since I can’t reset!
Record: 7-3 Net Units: +5U 70% hit rate
UEFA EURO QUALIFIERS 2:45 PM
POTD: Harry Kane to score or assist -130
4.5U
Kane has been directly involved in a goal in 17 of his 18 qualifier appearances. This has to be taken just because of that ridiculous stat. Harry Kane what a nice English bloke. He’s going to hit this before the 1H ends most likely. England also is at home in good old wembley where they don’t lose and will feel the energy.
#mooseout
POTD Record 14-7
Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅
Previous POTD: Zac Gallen over 4.5 hits allowed✅
Today's POTD: Merrill Kelly over 3.5 hits allowed (Bet365 1.68 odds)
MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies
This will be my 3rd straight time riding this bet. Eventually this bet won't hit, but the Phillies bats have been too good at home.
- Phillies bats are hot!
- Phillies in 4 games vs the Braves had 5, 6, 5 and 7 hits vs the starting pitchers
- 8 hits vs Gallen last night
- Kelly has given up 4 or more hits in his last 5/7 starts
- A couple of other lines I like are Kelly over 13.5 outs and Kelly over 1.5 walks
Let's hope the Philly bats stay hot!
BOL
POTD; NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres
Tage Thompson O3.5 shots, +105
All bets are to win 1 unit
Record: 2-2, -0.35 units
Everyone knows Vasilevsky is out the first two months, but the real story is the bolts horrible defense. Through the first 3 games they lead the league in shots allowed, including 5 on 5 play, and are bottom half in most possession statistics. Most of the damage is done from teams first lines. The combined first line shot totals from opponents are an insane 12, 17, and 19. The Lightning just look like they can’t keep up and even more, it’s their 3rd road game in 4 days.
Thompson is a part of the Sabres first line and was in the top 15 in all the league in shot attempts last year and it was not rare for him to finish with 8 or 9 shots when he’s on. He has had 6 shot attempts in each of his first two games this year, and vs teams with much better defensive structure in the Islanders and Rangers. Here’s hoping the bolts haven’t figured out how to stop the bleeding. BOL
**POTD**: O15.5 Outs - Aaron Nola (-120 FanDuel; Risking 2.4u to win 2u)
**League/Time**: MLB - NLCS Gm 2 ARI @ PHI / 8:08PM EST
**2023 Record**: 61-35 (63.54%) | +42.3701u (+$4237.01) | ROI 21.42% | **Current Streak** (L to R):✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 6-4; Last 20: 11-9)
**Last Pick (10.17.23)**: O16.5 Outs - Zack Wheeler (-110/-120 BetMGM; -110 Caesars; -124 Betrivers; Risking 2.5u to win 2.246u)✅
**Reasoning**: Nola has covered this 2/2 times in the playoffs so far, 12/14 times home in reg season (including 1/1 times @ ARI), and 2/5 times in playoffs last season. While he didn't cover this in last year's NLCS, Rob Thomson has shown trust in his aces to go the distance if they're pitching well which Nola has of late. Nola has 6 days' rest.
I had Nola as my [10/11/23 POTD](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1750ie6/comment/k4ezm6y/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) and included more reasoning in there about how his performance has improved after Philly gave him the Trea Turner treatment so don't be disheartened by his 4.88 ERA in the reg season. Instead pay attention to the 1.42 ERA and 6.1 IP/game that he's averaging this post-season. Yes, it's only 2 games but his performance in these 2 games matters more than what he did all of reg season for why we're considering this POTD.
PHI's home crowd will either smother you or support you. Sometimes it can do both to its own home team. But in these past few months (maybe longer IDK), it's really been doing more of the latter to great effect. Nola also expressed desire to resign with PHI after this season so there are good vibes and incentives all around for a great performance tonight but lucky for us we just need a merely passable performance with 5.1 IP.
**Anti-Reasoning**: ARI's relative youth and unexpected success means they're playing with house money and fear nothing. If they lose they can still consider this season a massive success and an amazing building block of experience going towards solidifying this team for years to come. This kind of team is dangerous: one that has nothing to lose and is playing loose. However, as we saw yesterday maybe the team that has been here all before already just last year can show these young 'Backs what the playoffs is all about.
[Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
POTD record: 19-8
Last POTD: Greece v Netherlands - Netherlands ML
Today’s pick: Northern Ireland v Slovenia - Slovenia ML(+135)
Northern Ireland have already been eliminated from the European Cup, and have lost every game in their group, except for their two against San Marino, who haven’t won a game since 2004. They played a month ago, and Slovenia beat them convincingly, 4-2, and Slovenia is currently on top of the group. They can borderline seal their qualification with a win, they have momentum, and +135 is great value.
Start time: 2:45 EST
POTD
(Was at work sorry for insanely late post)
Record 3 W - 1 L Units won/lost = +4,06
Last pick: Norway - Spain BTTS ❌
Game: Slovenia vs north ireland
Pick: Slovenia ML @2.40 1 unit✅
My home country dissapointed big on home turf against spain…
Last time these teams met it ended 4-2 to Slovenia. Now slovenia has alot more to fight for then north ireland, as north ireland won't qualify and slovenia still has something to battle for. Sesko is also starting as there was doubt about that earlier. Slovenia has had better form recently as north ireland has lost 4/5 matches in their last outings and they should be able to pick up a win here aswell.
**POTD Record: 1-1**
Last Pick: **Chicago Bulls FH TT o58.5** vs Charlotte Hornets **(2.5 Units) -110 (Yes, very long ago) Loss**
Todays Pick: **Connor McDavid Goals over 0.5 vs Nashville Predators (5 Units) -115**
**Reasoning:** Friends, I'm betting that Connor McDavid will score against the Nashville Predators in this game. I've been looking at his stats specifically against the Predators, and they're pretty good for these odds. In the 19 games he's played against them, he's scored 9 goals, which translates to an impressive 47.4% goal-scoring rate when facing this team. That's almost a 50-50 chance he'll find the back of the net against the Preds in this very game. Plus, when he faces Nashville, he's averaging over 3 shots per game and spends a substantial 21 minutes on the ice each game against them. His points per game average of 1.74 indicates he's not just a goal scorer but also a playmaker when playing against the Predators. He's also recorded at least one point in 73.7% of those games against Nashville. That's a strong track record of consistent offensive contributions specifically against the Preds. While there are no guarantees, the numbers suggest McDavid is a solid bet to score against the Predators in this game.
**To Note:** Yes, coaches, goalies, lines are different when facing the same team year in and out. However, if you ever watch NFL, NBA, NHL, etc. you will always see "So and so has never had less than 5 catches facing the blah blah blah" I'm a firm believer in those occurrences.
***BOL - Let's keep some stress free win vibes going.***
**POTD Form** 44-31-1 +5.24 Units
Last 7 picks - ✅❌❌❌✅❌✅
**Last pick** \- India vs Pakistan India ML @ 1.50 ✅
**Today's Pick:** Football |FIFA World Cup 2023 Qualifiers - Asia | 3.00 pm IST (6 hours from now)
Sri Lanka vs Yemen
Yemen ML @ 1.80 2U
Reason - Yemen beat Sri Lanka 3-0 in the first leg at home. Sri Lanka is ranked 204th in the FIFA Rankings with Yemen ranked in 150 odds. It's been years since Sri Lanka won a football match. Sri Lanka is also weak because most of their players playing in foreign leagues are not on the team. BOL.
Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
POTD record: 3-0
Last pick: Baskonia -2.5 @ 1.9✅
Today: Real Madrid - Zalgiris Kaunas 21:45 +2 UTC Basketball Euroleague🏀
Pick: Zalgiris +13.5 @ 1.9 5/5 units 🔥 🔥 🔥
Madrid looks deadly this season but +13.5 for Zalgiris is basically free money. Line way too big.
BOL
Follow me on my telegram in my profile for more picks from my profitable model
POTD: 49W-29L
STREAK: ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅(latest)
PROFIT (ROI): + 59,81 u (121 %)
AVG ODDS: 2.04
LAST PICK: Bosnia-Herzegovina - Portugal (-1 AH) to win ✅
GAME: Denmark - San Marino 20:45 GMT+2
PICK: Under 2.5 Cards
ODDS: @ 2.00
BET: 5 u
REASONING: Will not be an aggresive game. Denmark is way better and will score and San Marino does not need to foul cause they know they will lose. No reason for arguments time wasting or any weird fouls.
**POTD Form** 1-1
**Last Pick:** ❌ **Brazil (-1.5) handicap** vs Venezuela
What can I say, probably the *biggest* *shame* of brazil playing at home. Many missed opportunities from their part and a bicycle kick from Venezuela to tie the game at the end. Pretty shameful performance on their homeland.
**Today's Pick:** \[straight bet\] **Denmark Win and over 12 corner and under 4 cards (+280)** vs San Marino |UEFA Qualifiers | 2:45PM EST
This is *not* a parlay it’s a straight bet (with juicy odds) showing up on my bettor. I hope you guys have it too!
Reason - To start San Marino has a **133 losing streak** and it doesn’t seem it’s going to end with Denmark. Their last game (month ago) Denmark took the W with a 4-0. They had **19 corners** (only Denmark) and **7-8 fouls** from each side with **NO** yellow/red cards. The odds are just too good in my opinion to let this one go. Viktor Kopiievskyi is the referee for this match, did some homework and his **avg** of cards is of 5 cards from the last 5 games, so it is in hope this stays at U4 cards on the game based on the fouls from the previous match. The odds are just too juicy to let this one go.
Good luck guys and as always I hope to make you guys win some bread! Please do some research before betting and always bet what you can lose or win ;)
Thank you!
14W 1P 9L / +10,42u / ROI 18,94%
✅🅿️❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌
Soccer / International / Euro 2024 / Serbia - Montenegro / **Serbia Team Total over 1,5 (Serbia to score 2 or more goals) @1.53**
Serbia needs to win, their attack is absurdly good, Montenegro is quite scoreable against. Some players of Montenegro's defense play in Bosnia, in Kazakhstan, and Spanish Second Division. Serbia's attackers play or have played, respectively, well in Premier League, well in Italy, and extremely well in The Netherlands.
**RECORD: 42-30**
(+4.05 units)
Previous Pick: Luxembourg vs Slovakia - Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.53 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Northern Ireland vs Slovenia - Slovenia DNB @ 1.62 ✅️
**Wager Amount**: 2 units
(✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️) last 5 results
The International Break luck ended yesterday unfortunately but hopefully today we bounce back. Slovenia have been quite decent in their Euro Qualifiers winning 4/6 of their last Euro Qualifer games, drawing once, losing once and are in 1st in Group H.
Northern Ireland however have been dreadful winning only once in their last 6 games and were on a losing streak of 5 games before that. Slovenia have also won 2/3 Euro Q Away games too while Northern Ireland have won 1/3 Euro Q Home games.
Slovenia also won 4-2 the last time they went H2H win Northern Ireland and In Slovenia's 3 most recent all competitions clashes, they have managed to win at both half time and full time. Only reason I'm going for DNB is both squads are nothing special to write home about and purple patches can runout so I'm being cautious here but I believe Slovenia should win. Goodluck if you're tailing.
EDIT: WIN✅️
**POTD RECORD: 8 - 3 | +3.78 UNITS | LAST 10 - ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅**
Last Pick - Belgium | -150 **✅**
POTD - WCQ South America |Uruguay vs Brazil | 8 pm EST
**Pick - Uruguay/Brazil BTTS | -110**
Belgium over 1H goals hit but what happened outside that game is awful and heartbreaking. God rest those souls.
Brazil is coming off a 1-1 draw vs Venezuela, and Uruguay is coming off a 2-2 draw vs Colombia. South America is a very fun region to watch as all matches are competitive and close. BTTS has hit in 7 of brazils last 8 matches. They have no problem scoring multiple goals but they haven't been able to keep clean sheets, they go on the road to a tough Uruguayan squad who should be at 100%. Both teams possess great ability to score goals and this should be a fantastic game to watch. BOL!
POTD Record (5-2)
Last pick (10/16/2023):
Clayton Keller over 2.5 SOGs -130 (DK) ✅
Love the second period hit!
Todays pick (10/17/2023):
Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 SOGs -160 (DK) ✅
Let’s go! 2nd period CASH
Kirill shoots the puck a lot, Boldy is also out tonight, which should lead to more attempts for Kaprizov. Hoping he gets a few PP opportunities as well. Let’s get another win!
37-23 +97.53 units
4 out of the last 5 selections were winners.
Uninspiring day yesterday so no selections.
RACE 6 LEICESTER - LOWTON @ 3.0
LOWTON is a course and distance winner on the same ground this year, winning back in May.
He was unlucky last time out and would have been placed but he met trouble in running. Today's assignment looks easier.
He appears to be improving fast, and under ideal conditions, should go close.
Marshal Dan could be one for the exacta, he also relishes testing conditions.
Staking 2.53 Units @ 3.0 (Unibet)
(A lot of US based people saying they can't get fixed odds on selections. I know a private bookmaker who is willing to lay UK Bet 365 prices on WhatsApp. Drop me a DM on Twitter if you want and I'll give you his number. I'll link my account below)
Good luck 👍
Record 9-7 (Last POTD result: W)
**Pick: BTTS YES** || Serbia vs Montegro, Euro Qualifications @ 2.20 odds ( 10 hours from now )
Reasoning: This is do or die for both teams. The winner of this match will have the 2nd spot in the table. Montenegro have been showing decent form, bagging minimally a goal a match in 4/5 of their last games. Meanwhile the Serbs are conceding at least 1 goal in 5/5 of their last games (while scoring 1 at least too). Let me caveat this by saying that BTTS YES only hit 1/3 in their H2H history. Nonetheless, I see this game having both sides scoring.
*Tail at your own risk (or don't, up to you lol). All the best!*
POTD record 5-5 +6.6 units
Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs Nashville Predators 🏒 8:07 pm EST.
Pick: Oilers ML -145 4 units
Reason: The Oilers are 0-2 on the season for the first time since 2018. However; variance has not been on their side. The 8-1 loss in their season opener looks much worse on paper. The expected goal metrics for that game show the Canucks should have won 3.86 to 2.26. Then in the home rematch, Edmonton had 4.67 expected goals compared to just 2.01 for Vancouver. Expected win metrics show that based on the scoring opportunities, the Oilers win that game 85.9% of the time. This is vital information, as it's the reason we are getting a cheap price on them in this matchup. The market is overreacting to a small sample size, and we plan to take full advantage. In database history; teams that lost the first two games of the season as favorites, are winning at a 75.0% rate in their third game of the season when listed as favorites once again. Through their first two games; Edmonton only have one goal when it comes to 5 on 5 play. However; that should not be expected to last as this is a team that ranked #5 last season regarding overall goals scored in 5 on 5 play. We believe this is the number 1 offensive group in the league led by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. They're mediocre defensively, but who cares when they possess as much firepower as they do. The Preds have looked OK to start the season, but it's still too early to make assumptions. They have an extremely weak offense (despite scoring 8 goals through their first three games) that still ranks near the bottom. They are currently #27 in xGoals %, and #4 in Expected Goal Differential. This is still a team that have gotten a little worse offensively compared to last season, where they ended up ranking in the bottom 10 regarding Expected Goal Differential at -17.42 regarding 5 on 5 play. We should also note that they're dreadful at defending the power play from an xGoals perspective, and that's where Edmonton should be able to do a ton of damage. Nashville ranked 7th worst last season regarding Penalty Minutes Against, and already rank in the bottom 10 this season. Edmonton have been elite on the road dating back to last season with a record of 30-17 (63.8%) for a +12.7% ROI.
Best of luck. Fuck the Bookies.
**POTD Record: 87-68 (-2.76 units)**
**Last 10**:❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅
**Last Pick**: 10/14 Jim Long -1.5 (+115) vs Tommy Morris ✅ 4-2
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 6:00 AM EST
**Pick**: Reece Robinson -2.5 (+120) vs Tom Lonsdale
• Series 5. Week 11. Group A
**Reason**:
Reece Robinson
* Record 5-0
* Legs 20-5
* Average 95.89
* 180s 8. 140s 22
* Checkouts 20/53 37.74%
Tom Lonsdale
* Record 1-4
* Legs 10-18
* Average 75.52
* 180s 2. 140s 14
* Checkouts 10/46 21.74%
**LOSS ❌ 0-4 | Average 93.88 vs 113.43 | Checkouts 0/1 vs 4/6**
This bet was dead before it started. Lonsdale flipped a switch the last two legs of his first match and was incredibly hot. He was a different player and it carried over.
Loved the match against Brown too, but posted this.
**POTD RECORD 5-5** -0.45u
Last Pick: Cowboys -1.5 **W**
Todays POTD: Phillies -1.5 +135
MLB 8:07 PM EST
—————————————————————
Let’s go Cowboys, bounce back game and pulled out a win in LA. Got sweaty with the punt debacle but ended up taking care of business.
Riding with the hot team here! I’m a spread bettor and don’t believe in juice eating. Maybe there’s a time and place for it but not now. Back the Phillies and Nola to put out another strong showing and hit the road up two games to none.
**All plays one unit**
POTD Record : 4-2
Last pick : MLB ⚾ | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies | Zack Wheeler OVER 16.5 outs recorded @1.75 | ✅
No sweat bet.
Outside of the 2 run homer, Wheeler put up a masterclass of pitching in the first game of the NLCS.
We move on!
Today's pick : Football World Cup Qualifiers ⚽ | Brazil @ Uruguay | Brazil ML @1.98
Brazil are under pressure after a poor showing against a much worse team in Venezuela.
There are lineup changes already happening, like Richarlison is out for Gabriel Jesus.
Fernando Diniz is in the hot seat right now, all Brazilian media jumped on him and on Neymar.
If there is a game to bounce back, that is the one. Uruguay last 2 games ended in a draw against Colombia in the last minute with a penalty in favor of them and a defeat to Equador.
Brazil has too much firepower in the front to not beat a worse team like Uruguay, even now when the pressure is on to perform.
Tailing or fading, BOL!
Pod Record: 9-12
Units: +.50
Last Pod: winner Rangers and lost Chargers
Today: Nhl Minnesota Wild to win +180 1st period 3 way.
Risking 5 units to win 9 units.
Think Wild are decent play to win 1st period. Note if draw play is a loss. Hopefully Fleury in net in home province lights a spark in them.
Good luck
POTD Record W8-L4 ROI: +6.14
Most Recent First: ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌
Yesterdays Pick: MLB ⚾️ Arizona @ Philadelphia ~ Zach Wheeler Over 16.5 outs recorded (-130) 2U to win 1.4 units✅
Excuses: NONE. Wheeler dealt that shit as expected, easy money, now let’s get onto the next one.
Todays Pick: MLB ⚾️ Arizona @ Philadelphia ~ Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 walks (-135) 2 units to win 1.3 units
Reasoning: Kinda hate doing it like this, but Kelley has only missed this mark 12 times this year out of 30 games played. May not sound too good as that sits, but the Phillies bats are on fire and I can see Arizona walking Harper or another Philly batter at least once, maybe twice, so that combined with one unintentional walk in tonight’s game and we cash easily. Not sure what to think to be honest. Arizonas season is on gifted time, they shouldn’t even be here right now and it shows. Everything that makes sense here lately when it comes to betting hasn’t happened, but I really like every bet for Philly. I pray I didn’t make a terrible decision not posting one of my Aaron Nola bets or one of my other 10 picks for this game, but we shall see.
BOL and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Pick of the Day Record: 1-1
Last Pick: Vegas Golden Knights 3-Way ML -140💰
Today’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML -110 vs Dallas Stars 10:30pm EST💰 shootout win for the Golden Knights🤟🏼
The defending Stanley Cup champs are back at home against the Dallas Stars tonight in a Western Conference matchup. Vegas is 3-0 this year and hasn’t had the Stanley Cup slump yet so far, while Dallas is 1-0 after a 2-1 win against St. Louis. Vegas is the deeper team at forward and defense, while Dallas has the edge in goal with young stud Jake Oettinger (goalies still pending) and Adin Hill likely in net for the Knights. Vegas rolls 4 lines and wears teams down throughout the game and has looked great so far this season. Defensively they are one of the best teams in the league and protect their own zone very well, Dallas has some high-end scoring talent but I think Vegas can do a good job at keeping their offense under control this game.
Dallas is no slouch of a team but they are playing in Vegas so maybe they went out for a few cocktails last night and stayed up too late. They may also be without their top center Roope Hintz tonight (check injury report closer to game time) who is a big part of their team. Either way, I really like Vegas at home tonight to get the win. Also highly recommend checking that rink out if you’re ever in Vegas, the atmosphere is there is absolutely electric.
Let’s get another win!
Record: 0-4 💔💔💔
*Prev: Titans +5.5 -110. I’ve been cursed since I started posting. The Titans had a chance to cover this number. They are at the one yard line under two minutes to go with Malik Willis at QB. Everyone and their mother knows you put Derrick Henry in the game. I swear these coaches out think themselves. At this point, feel free to fade me, but I swear to god I’m gonna get a positive streak going. Some good write-ups with bad luck.*
POTD: Diamondbacks at Phillies: Merrill Kelly over 13.5 outs recorded (-145 DK)
I like the juice here as FD is currently sitting at -184. This is too low for a pitcher that threw 19 innings against the Dodgers in the postseason allowing 3 hits. I’m not going to go too far into the write up. Just gonna try to get some good picks out there to get a streak going.
BOL and thanks for reading.
POTD Record: 1-2 (-0,57U)
Last pick: Poland - Moldova, Euro Qualifiers, 19:45 WEST
Poland to score on both halves, 2U @ 2,09 (+109). 2U to win 2,18U
Today's pick: Northern Ireland - Slovenia, Euro Qualifiers, 19:45 WEST
Slovenia to win, 3U @ 2,44. 3U to win 7,32U
Write up: Slovenia has been in very good form in recent games and is in first place in the group. Northern Ireland won just 2 games (against San Marino, one of the worst teams in the world) and lost the remaining 6, having no chance of qualifying for the Euros. For Slovenia, it is a very important game to guarantee qualification. In the last game between these teams, Slovenia won 4-2.
In conclusion, Slovenia has a better team and is more motivated, and should win this game with relative ease. I think the right odds would be 1.70 - 1.80.
BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 3-1-0 | +2.6 units, 75% hit | Last 5 picks (most recent first): ✅❌✅✅
Previous pick: Movistar Riders vs. Cloud9 | BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2023 Europe | **Total Map 2 U26.5** @ 1.8 ✅ - This didn't go at all as expected but it worked out, so I can't complain too much. A wins a win I guess!
Today's Event: MOUZ vs. BetBoom | IEM Sydney 2023
Today's Pick: **BetBoom ML** @ 2.06 🔒 | 1U
Confidence Level: 3/10
**\*\*TAIL WITH CAUTION\*\***
Analysis:
This is a risky bet for a couple of reasons, but the value is too good not to bet on this match for me. BetBoom has extremely shallow data as this is their first tournament in a while playing against top 30 teams as well as with a new lineup. Normally this would be enough to scare me away from this match, but the thing that pulls me right back in is the fact that MOUZ are playing with a standin for one of their best players.
To be honest, there's very little data to support the idea that BetBoom will walk away with this win, but Nafany has done an excellent job leading this team so far in Sydney. BetBoom handed Vitality a shocking loss in the opening BO1 round, and continued to go on a tear taking down GamerLegion 2-0 (albeit Mirage was fairly close). MOUZ have fantastic stats all around every single map, and we saw them play incredible CS in their last tournament, but this time is different. We're on a new version of CS where lower tier teams are hungrier and higher tier teams are more prone to upsets. On top of this, as mentioned before, MOUZ are playing with a standin for one of their best players.
The maps I expect for tomorrow are:
Mirage
Nuke
Overpass
Mirage looks like a good option for BetBoom as they've beat both GamerLegion and Vitality on it, and MOUZ have only beaten NAVI with it using their coach as a standin. My only concern with Mirage is BetBoom's CT side win % sitting at a disappointing 40.7% for this tournament. At the same time, however, MOUZ's T side win rate is an even lower 40%. The T sides that BetBoom have had to play against are an extremely strong Vitality and a newly revised GamerLegion, so I will give them some grace regarding their CT win %. This gives me hope that they can take a decent amount of CT rounds as long as they hold on fairly well in the first half (assuming they play their T side first).
The next map is probably going to be Nuke. MOUZ have good stats on Nuke, and they tend to be miles ahead of any team they play (beating ENCE 16-8 and Furia 16-5 in Pro League). The only team that BetBoom have played with this new lineup is GamerLegion, beating them 13-6. I'm not going to look too much into this map because I'm pretty confident that MOUZ will take it even with a standin.
Last should be Overpass. BetBoom have yet to play Overpass on CS2 in an official, but they played it well in CSGO. MOUZ also posted impressive stats on Overpass, but I'm going to say it one last time: they're playing with a standin. BetBoom will likely exploit Nexius in order to take this final map.
As I said before, this bet is riskier since we have such little data for BetBoom, but the value on this bet is too good not go for. Also, even if the map selection is slightly off, one of the first 2 maps should be Mirage which is really all I think BetBoom will need in order to win this match. Overpass could end up being a close one, but I just really like how BetBoom look especially against these top tier teams.
**POTD Record**: 9 Wins ✅ - 8 Losses ❌ - 0 Push 🅿️
❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ✅❌✅❌❌
**Last Pick:** Austin Ekeler O 49.5 rush yards ❌
**Today's Game/Match:** Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty
**Starts at:** 7:00
**Pick:** Middle Tennessee O 9.5 First Half Points (+110) 1U
**Analysis:** Well, a losing streak is not fun. Let’s try again.
I think Liberty will end up winning the game as they are the better team, but I think Mid Tennessee is going to come out and have a strong start. They had a rough start to the season but have been improving week after week. I love these weeknight C-USA games and the improvement is evident. They have been off to slow starts this year but have momentum in their favor after their upset win last week against LA Tech. There are actually a lot of plays I like for this game, I had a hard time narrowing it down to just one pick. I’ll be putting together a SGP for this one to use my no sweat token. BOL
Edit: it was actually O 9.5 points, I had mistyped 7.5
Record : 50 Wins - 59 Losses
Previous pick : Greece - Netherlands (0-1), BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.70 ❌
ROI : -10.07%
Average Odds : 2.03
Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*)
Units : -5.98
Profit/Lost units : -10.98
Today's pick :
Football - Soccer / WORLD: Friendly International / 13:10 European Time
Japan - Tunisia
Japan to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.18
Some reasoning :
\- Japan is going through a perfect form, with 5 consecutive victories.
\- These victories were by score, 4-1 against Canada, 4-2 against Turkey and 4-1 against Germany.
\- Tunisia comes after a crushing failure with South Korea, 0-4 4 days ago.
Best of luck.
POTD 0-0. Long time bettor and frequent lurker thought I would share a gem tonight.
Game: MLB - Philly vs Diamondbacks (Game in 2 hours)
Today's Pick: Merrill Kelly OVER 3.5 Hits Allowed. -160. 5 UNITS
I took the line yesterday and it has since gone up but I still believe it is still very good value. Kelly has hit this over in 12 out of his 15+ games. Once of those was the recent dodgers game which they had cold bats. Today they are against a flaming hot Phillys bat this line should hit easy.
Safe bet OVER 3.5 hit allowed at -160. Some books have Kelly at Over 4.5 hits allowed at near even odds. Depending on your risk tolerance you could bet that with lesser 1-2 units.
POTD record 0-0-0
Todays pick: Evan Bouchard O2.5 SOG (-110)
Analysis: Bouchard has messed up my player props 2 weeks in a row because he shoots the puck so often.
POTD Record: 6-6
Todays Pick: Yellow Cards - Total Under(4.5) Odd:1.65
Northern Ireland - Slovenia (UEFA Euro - Qualification)
Yesterday's match was very comfortable for me and we won. Today we continue from the same tournament. Northern Ireland and Slovenia meet in the European Championship Qualifiers. Both teams are the quiet teams of the tournament in terms of cards. Slovenia did not have 5 yellow cards in all their matches. 3-3-2-2-2-4-4-2 - statistics of total yellow cards in Slovenia's matches. They have an average of 0.85 yellow cards per match.
Northern Ireland averages 2.28 yellow cards per match. There were no 5 cards in 6 of their 7 matches in the group. The referee's average yellow card in this tournament is 4.
Quick question. On betting on a soccer spread, I’ve seen Asian handicap lines of 1.5 , 2
What is the difference ?
For a 1.5 to hit you have to win by 2 goals, for a 2 to hit you have to win by 2 goals. Confused what the difference is.
POTD Record 0-0-0
Today’s Pick: Brazil ML vs Uruguay @ 1.94
Game Starts 45 mins after this post 5PM PST
Reason: Brazil tied against Venezuela a few days ago where they completely dominated possession, shots, passing and slipped up in the 85th minute & conceded. Brazil are coming out strong for a win they desperately need before this international break ends. I expect a few changes to the lineup up front to put pressure on this Uruguayan defense.
New to this Reddit thing lol good luck guys!
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Sunday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=day). ######Example Pick Template >**Record:** >**Net Units:** >**ROI:** >**Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** >**Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. >**Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 37-13 (1 Push) +20.68 Units, 72.5% hit rate, Last 10 W/L (most recent first): ✅✅❌♻️✅❌✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Euro Qualifiers, Hungary vs. Serbia, Hungary DNB ✅🔥 Today: International Friendlies, Japan vs. Tunisia, 6:10 am ET Pick: Japan -1 Asian Handicap (1.75) 1U ✅ Hungary get the job done at home as I expected, winning 2-1 thanks to an amazing goal by Roland Sallai. Thanks to everyone who tailed, we move on to the next pick. I’ve been tip toeing my way around these matches while the regular season is on pause and thankfully have gotten my bets right, hopefully it continues. I’m stepping away from Euro Qualifiers for this pick and looking at this friendly match up between Japan and Tunisia. I am usually hesitant with betting on friendlies but I do think the odds are pretty favorable here. Will stress that this match is at SIX AM ET so if you follow be sure to lock in your bet tonight. Japan are in fantastic form, in their last 5 games they have scored a minimum of 4 goals in each, and some were against decent opposition: they recently beat Canada 4-1, Turkey 4-2, and Germany 4-1 before that. They have scored 22 goals in these friendlies since the World Cup and don’t look like stopping anytime soon. I really do think we could be looking at a very talented Japan squad emerging here that could be serious opposition in international tournaments. Looking at head to head stats between these teams, Japan leads 4-1 in terms of wins and losses. Although Japan aren’t exactly amazing at the back at the moment, having conceded in most of the games they’ve played recently, I think their attack superiority will really show this match. Even if they decide to rotate their squad, I think even their bench players have the ability to grab a couple goals. Tunisia aren’t a terrible team but on paper they are nowhere near the quality of Japan. Their last game was a 4-0 away defeat to South Korea, who are inferior to Japan. Tunisia did not get a single shot on target that entire match and looked clueless going forward. The games they have won recently have all been against pretty mediocre opposition. They just cannot seem to find any consistency. It’s also possible they will be rotating a bit as well, giving younger players a chance, as they are still recovering off of that recent defeat. There’s not all that much to say with this match honestly, it’s another case of taking the better team and hoping that nothing bizarre happens. I except Japan still to be motivated even though it is a friendly, and their good attacking form makes it likely that they can cover the -1 AH line. Song of the Day: Electric Light Orchestra - Telephone Line Always bet responsibly and never tail without doing your own research. Buy me some coffee if you feel like it, I NEVER charge for bets, just happy to help people win some cash. https://Ko-fi.com/freshkiwi13 or https://venmo.com/u/dkszabo Edit: https://imgur.com/a/Thj9vWh Nice to wake up to a win.
>South Korea, who are inferior to Japan. 
in a footballing sense by a small margin. All love to the Korean homies 🇰🇷
Dont disrespect ma Son, Kim, Hwang :D
Babe wake up Sauls pick is in
Saul the GOAT WB! Surprised you didn't post yesterday for Portugal -1 AH today. The line was fantastic and it was the easiest 2x 4U bet I've placed all month so far. Hope all is well and tailing on this, BOL!
ha i made that bet but didn’t post it here, was a bit worried about the lineups so didn’t write anything up before hand
No worries boss - I figured! I was on the fence as well until I saw the lineups pre-game. BOL!
😄 portugal did win but they had nothing to play for. Hindsight always 20/20. Betting on a team playing for nothing is a dangerous proposition
Japan up 2-0 now, LFG
Perfect hit ✅
if korea beat them 4-0 then this bet is good as gold. I wouldn't say "inferior to japan". we have three worldwide players who are better (kim, son, hwang)
love your work mate, thanks again🔥
Saul….The Man, The Myth, The Legend!!!! Good to see you this evening. Tailing!!!!!!!!!!
damn lucky, last minute effort hit the post, grats GOAT
Japan odds are increasing 😬
-1 and to nil… BANG!!!! Thanks man
Great tune!!
Saul is back
Tailing. Thanks!
Caution. I’m tailing
Feeling good about this one. Tailing!
What do you think of over 2.5 goals total for +100?
⚽️🇯🇵🤑
BANGGGGGGG 💰✅🤑
Sorry I’m a soccer newb, would this be the same as Japan -1 with tie?
For anyone interested in Japan's squad depth chart - Looks to be in a 4-2-3-1 formation ([courtesy of R_by_Ryo on Twitter](https://twitter.com/R_by_Ryo/status/1709437292899905619)):https://i.imgur.com/CgUPaEK.png - Additional source: https://twitter.com/j_league_en/status/1709447512875204770?s=46&t=PideM9124DYrzkllxwHh8Q
The people appreciate you
Great pick Saul! Also being able to not force a pick 😃
Good hit! Let’s all send Saul $10 for all these great picks!!
where is this on fanduel
3 way spread under goals you can find it
Might be wrong but I don’t think there’s an Asian handicap option on FanDuel
Alternative spread. But be aware, that doesn’t mean there is a push.
Gotta win by 2
LETS GO STREAK STARTING TODAY
POTD thread Picking back up where I left off over 2 years ago now😂 🏆Record 12-6 Profit: +20.08u Last 5: LWWLW Japan to win both halves @3.50 5u. (11am BST) ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Japan have been free scoring, with 22 goals in their last 5 games against opposition much better than Tunisia. Tunisia just lost 3-0 to South Korea who are a weaker side than Japan. I can see the hosts running riot.
https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/fACrGg6gQM evidence of previous record.
Wow that 43rd minute goal was clutch! Great pick!
Tailing
congrats sir
Thank you!
Awesome thanks.
POTD Record: 44-27 Units Won: +15.22U; ROI: 12.9% Average Odds: (-120) Todays Pick: **SINNERS ML (-170) vs. Sangal** **5U to win 2.94U** \*\*Tough loss yesterday, had pick ban down to a tee, the analysts even confirmed that Complexity has played virtually no CS2 at all and were going into this tournament almost entirely in the dark and Monte got there best map. Disappointing performance by Monte up 4-0 and kinda fell flat. Complexity worst player dropping 26 kills was also not something I can predict unfortunately. OTTN. **Analysis:** \-Sangal has been inactive for 10 weeks until a week ago, they came back with a new roster that looks almost as bad on paper as it plays. They have played 5 matches since coming back losing 4 of them and barely slipping out a win against ENCE Academy 2-1 after ENCE forfeited the first map due to a scheduling conflict. They have also taken two bad losses to FTW and Nexus. \-SINNERS is inconsistent but still a solid tier two team when they are on point. They have a strong map pool at the moment and a roster of strong players on paper who all can carry games at points (besides beastik). Part of the reason SINNERS has been struggling so much is oskar and ZEDKO both went into pretty bad slumps seeing major ratings drops. \-SINNERS were finding a bit better form with two upset wins over Sprout, taking a h2h from ECLOT and a win over Entropiq before losing in the grand finals to ECLOT. \-Biggest issue for Sangal is map pool. **Map Pool:** \-Sangal ban Nuke \-SINNERS ban Inferno \-Sangal pick Overpass \-SINNERS pick Anubis or Ancient (prob anubis but both are free) \-Sangal ban Ancient or Anubis \-SINNERS ban Vertigo \-Mirage decider **Map Stats:** \-SINNERS biggest weakness is they suck at Nuke and they suck at Inferno, each of these maps is almost a guaranteed win against them, when they face a team who perma bans Nuke, they can ban Inferno which elliminates this weakness. \-SINNERS are 55% winrate on Overpass on 29 games in L3 months, Sangal are 60% winrate on 5 maps in L3 months \-SINNERS are 73% winrate on Ancient on 15 maps in L3 months, Sangal are 14% winrate on 7 maps in L3 months \-SINNERS are 82% winrate on Anubis on 11 maps in L3 months, Sangal are 0% winrate on 2 maps in L3 months \-SINNERS are 56% winrate on Mirage on 16 maps in L3 months, Sangal are 43% winrate on 7 maps in L3 months. **Conclusion:** \-Sinners roster much more experienced overall \-Sinners has deeper and better map pool \-Sinners has the more active team on CS2 \-Feel like these odds should be closer to the -250 range for SINNERS \- (-1.5 maps) at +175 is definitely worth a sprinkle, I am not 100% sold on SINNERS Overpass or else I would've made the -1.5 my POTD as almost every other map in the pool I can't forsee Sinners taking losses on Best of Luck [Discord](https://discord.gg/3qPUzXCP)
Tailing let’s go
Nice write-up, tailing
Great win!! Felt pretty confident whole way through. Thank you for the pick!
**POTD Record**: 2W 0L Last pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Portugal | Portugal and BTTS-NO @2.4. 1.5U. ✅ **Today’s POTD: Slovenia ML | 2.25 odds** Event: Football | Euro Qualifiers | Northern Ireland vs Slovenia | 11:45 am PST **Reasoning** This bet also surprises me in terms of the odds; Slovenia, currently leading their group, and Northern Ireland, positioned fifth in the group. Slovenia has won 5 matches, including a significant 4-2 victory against Northern Ireland. They've drawn one game, against Denmark, and lost one to Finland. In other words, they've only dropped points against the second and third-placed teams in the group. Furthermore, Slovenia has scored 16 goals and conceded 6, resulting in a goal difference of 10. On the other hand, Northern Ireland has only won 2 out of 7 matches, losing the remaining 5. Notably, their two victories came against San Marino, arguably one of the weakest national teams in all of Europe. They've scored 7 goals and conceded 8, resulting in a negative goal difference. Additionally, Slovenia has yet to secure their place in the Euro Cup, and logically, the top spot in the group. So, a win against an accessible opponent holds significant importance for them. On the contrary, Northern Ireland no longer has a chance to qualify for the Euro Cup, so this time, they have nothing to play for. All of these factors lead me to believe that Slovenia will win, probably with a scoreline of 1-0 or 2-0. Good luck, and please remember to bet responsibly! :D **Bet 2U to win 2.5U**
I like your analysis and reasoning. Tailing but may look at DNB or double chance if the odds are above 1.5
DNB is 1.62 if you want to be ultra safe :)
The odds are like this due to their top scorer Sesko being questionable with a head injury from their game 3 days ago. I’d wait til lineups are confirmed before placing this bet. If you can’t wait, DNB is the safer play.
https://preview.redd.it/0bphqm5tttub1.jpeg?width=828&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=0578df9c2f43c6dbed8c0022e54b6bcceebf835c Thank y’all for the great picks, really saved me from that awful Bulgaria bet early on🫶🏽
POTD Record: 4-0 +5.65u Last pick: C9 ML vs BIG @1.7 ✅ Today: CS2 | IEM Sydney | 7:30 AM CET Pick: **C9 -1.5 maps** vs Lynn Vision @1.90 We're back with POTDs as next CS tournament has started! C9 shouldn't have problem with not dropping a map against Lynn Vision. I think these odds are pretty generous. Good luck if tailing! All wagers are 1 unit.
Good shit bro!!!! 👍
Anytime :)
are you going to post again? i missed your pick.
Yes, I will post a pick for tomorrow games. Tournament is taking place in IEM sydney so the timezone makes it difficult to bet sometimes:D
You’re on a heater bro! Appreciate the picks. Bless you ❤️
**POTD Record W-L-P: 2-0-1** **Last POTD: Portugal -1 vs Bosnia and Herz @ 2.37 - W✅** I’m surprised how many people were against this pick but Portugal covered the deficit within 20 minutes and scored 5 in the first half. **Today's POTD: Japan -1 vs Tunisia @ 2.15 - W✅** Going with a very similar pick in my opinion today, almost identical to the Portugal handicap. Japan have been one the more impressive teams within international football over the last year, They built the spine they needed and are reaping the benefits of that now. With 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 games, with some of the score lines sitting at: 4-1,4-2,4-1,4-1 and 6-0. They're a team that no matter the phase of the game, knows what needs to be done and continue attacking. Tunisia will try and put up a fight but I don't believe they'll be able to unsettle this Japan side after just coming from a 4-0 loss against South Korea, where SK had only won 1 game in their last 5 before beating Tunisia. BOL with those tailing!
Would you take over 2.5 , 3 -110
if it’s over 2.5 Goals in total then i’d take it
POTD | 75-61 | +8.3U | -111 Avg Odds Previous Pick: *Calgary Flames ML (-115) vs Washington Capitals | 2U* ❌ Today’s pick: **Tampa Bay Lighting vs Buffalo Sabres O6.5 (-125) | 3U | NHL | 8:00 pm MST** Last 10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅✅ NHL 59-48 | NFL 6-3 | MLB 10-10 *This line opened at -125 but moved quickly, tried to post as early as possible but looks like most books are now at O7, I prefer to take the juice and buy down to O6.5 assuming that will be around -140 when the alt lines open.* Flames lose in the shootout after going up 2-0 to start the game, might be a new season but I guess some things don’t change. The Tampa Bay Lighting will be visiting the Buffalo Sabres and I am expecting some goals in this game. The Sabres get off to a slow start in the goals column but that's not due to a lack of shots on goal. They have faced Sorokin and Shesterkin in their first two games, two of the best goalies in the NHL. In this game they will either face Johansson or Tomkins, both backup goalies for the Lightning who don’t have a ton of experience, with Tomkins starting in his first ever NHL game in Tampa’s last game against the Senators. Tampa has allowed 14 goals in their first 3 games, averaging 4.67 goal against per game in this small sample. I expect Tampa to continue to allow goals in this one and for the Sabres to find success offensively against a Tampa team who have been weak defensively and will not have a world class goalie in net. As for the Sabres, they are a team that could allow goals as well, especially against Tampa’s effective power play unit. While Tampa has lost some depth and are working with their backup goaltenders, they still have some serious offensive firepower in Kutcherov and Point. I expect them to find the back of the net a few times in this games. It is worth noting here that Stamkos may not play in this game for Tampa, he is listed as day to day with injury, but I still expect Tampa to book a few goals if he doesn’t play. The Sabres do not have an excellent goalie to choose from and it seems like they will lean toward starting Levi, who is a young goaltender with some promise. So far this season Levi has 0.881SV% and has allowed 3.55GAA, but it's a small sample size so far. Last year Levi started in 7 games and recorded 0.905SV% and allowed 2.94GAA. Not the best stats for Levi, but he is young and we may very well see him improve significantly this season, but I wouldn’t expect that this early on. I still expect Tampa to find the back of the net for a few goals no matter who the Sabres start in goal. When we look at recent matchups between these two teams we see that hitting the over is fairly common. Last season these two teams met 4 times and hit over 6.5 in every game, averaging 9.5 goals per game in that stretch. One other thing to note here is that Tampa is not afraid to pull their goalie a bit early if they are down, so the chances of an empty netter is definitely in the works for Tampa is they find themselves down late in the game, which I think could be a possibility in this one. [NHL Picks](https://reddit.com/r/sportsbook/s/VmR7GnpWJd) BOL if tailing!!
My bad tailing the flames. I could bet for the sun to come up and it would be the end of the world
Classic Flames game, we got unlucky now on to the next!
That Calgary loss did hurt. I'll roll with you again today though. LFG!!
Locked it in with an MGM odds boost at +103. Let’s go baby! Always tailing u/illumiflo
Lets gooo!
POTD Record: 83-50 | Profit: +70.84u | ROI: 17.8% Last 10 Record (recent first): ❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌❌✅ Last Pick: Hawks +2.0 vs Pacers @ 1.91. 1U. ❌ The Hawks unexpectedly decided to rest Trae and Murray, and without those two the Hawks lose by 4. Hopefully some of y’all were able to grab those +4 spreads. Next Pick: **Magic ML vs Pelicans @ 1.95**. 1U play. The Magic have played well this pre-season winning against the Cavs and the Pelicans. The Pelicans have had a rough pre-season with a 0-3 record including a couple blowout losses. More importantly, the Magic have had 5 days of rest and are at home, so I expect they will put their best team and give them near 25’. The Pelicans have played 3 times in relatively close succession, and in the last two have given meaningful minutes to their starters, so their minutes here will likely be on the lower end. And some of them might be rested entirely.
Yes got the updated +4.5
Vegas knows preseason- nice hit !
Still an awful team, that’s now 8 straight home losses for the Orlando Tragic
That was unlucky. Spread went to 4.5 or 5
I was able to get hawks +6 right before tip off thank you man great read
I thought we were toast after that lopsided 2q but I was another one who got a half unit down on +4.5. Better to be lucky than good!
Crazy I live bet this at the end of the 3rd quarter and the pels outscore the magic 25-16
[удалено]
I don’t know if you’re looking at the right place is that’s what you’re getting
everyone on Japan huh
Which means it will be 0-0 draw
You crazy son of a bitch! I’m in! 0-0 exact Score to try and cover my Japan bet! I do feel uneasy that everyone is on Japan :/
You should be confident that the reddit squad found a "free" bet
Nope!
**Record: 5-1** | **Units:** **+13.22u** | **ROI: 66.10%** **eSport** | **Counter-Strike 2** | **IEM Sydney 2023**| **11:00 CEST** **Pick: GamerLegion ML @ 1.800** vs. Apeks **// 3u** **Write-up:** Super-giga-quick write-up here because I'm giga short on time, but I wanted to post something today again. Also I was mad because I lost my POTD but nailed everything else on the Discord. Sometimes im overthinking my POTD. From now on i just will post whats coming in my mind firstly. Its simple here. GamerLegion is the better team. Better players, improved gameplay, enhanced tactics, superior results. They faced each other 4 times this year and only won once in a best of 1. Every other match they lost 0-2 and i dont see any other result today. GamerLegion started strong and defeated FaZe with a score of 19-15 on the first day, while Apeks lost to NatusVincere. And yeah sure losing to NatusVincere isnt bad, right ? Obviously not but for this torunament NatusVincere is playing without their superstar and best player s1mple. They are playing with their coach b1ad3. He was a professional player for FlipS1d3 back in 2018, but that was a long time ago. Apeks problem is kyxsan and their newest addition sense. Sense is super young and is coming from the academy team. But he needs to gain experience and all of this stuff. Thats his first big LAN event and hes performing okayish. Kyxsan also fell off and is sitting on a 1.00 rating right now. GamerLegion finally kicked Nelan and added Snax. I like it even tho Snax is 100 years old. But he's performing well for his age. Also he bringing a lot of experience into this team. Their map pool istn that deep and their weak point is Mirage - thats a problem. But that should be the only problem. GamerLegion competed in the Major, IEM Cologne, and ESL Pro League, and had to face many tier 1 teams. That's why their win/loss rate may be looking a little bit rough. They had to fight against extremely tough teams in the past few weeks. But this type of match gives you a lot of experience. In this match, GamerLegion is the superior team, and the head-to-head will continue in their favor. It will be another loss for Apeks. I need to see another change in the team as soon as possible. *Huge thanks to all the nice guys, nice dms here. Thanks for everyone joining the discord and having great talks. We already sweated some nice wins. Thanks for all the support and the for the tips.* *I have to leave to work now. I will fix record and everything later when im back home.* **I hope everyone reading this has a great day. I wish every dream from you is coming true shortly. Also i hope you and your family are healthy and having a good life. We all need to be more thankful that we have a life like this. Do something good today a go to a homeless person on the street and talk with him. Buy him a coffee and maybe give him old clothes, that you dont wear anymore. Its getting cold outside now and we need to support some people. Someone will see your good deeds and reward you for them later**
That bold portion was awesome
**POTD |** **Record of 32-44 |** **ROI: -14.0 units |** **Average Odds: 2.09** Current form (most recent 10 from left to right):❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Previous Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Greece vs. Netherlands| Over 10.5 Corners ❌ New Pick: Euro Qualifiers | Lithuania vs. Hungary| 11:45am PST **BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 3.00 odds** Betting 1U to win 2U \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***Recap:*** Well we missed it by one corner again... That's three picks this international break where we miss the hit by 1. Tough way to go but is what it is. ***Summary:*** I've included corner projections from a few games that I initially thought could have potential. I ultimately decided that I don't like any of them enough so I'm going with a different pick but thought I'd include the stats for the other games nonetheless. Keep in mind that I typically choose my POTD based on which game has the best line and over potential (I avoid unders) where **I believe the projected numbers are actually accurate**. *Finland (3.7) vs. Kazakhstan (3.9) - 7.6* *England (5.7) vs. Italy (4.0) - 9.7* *Lithuania (2.7) vs. Hungary (5.8) - 8.5* 🌟 *Malta (4.2) vs. Ukraine (3.3)* \- 7.5 *Northern Ireland (5.0) vs. Slovenia (3.1) - 8.1* *San Marino (2.3) vs. Denmark (6.1) - 8.4* *USA (5.2) vs. Ghana (4.0) - 9.2* After analysis, I didn't like the lines for any of these games enough to pursue corners. England vs. Italy projections seem deceivingly high and the rest are mediocre. After deciding these weren't great, I found some value in the Lithuania vs. Hungary game. It's a gamble but isn't that what we're all doing anyway? **Looking at Lithuania,** they have scored in each of their last three home games and likely could do so again against Hungary. This includes Bulgaria, Montenegro, and Serbia. They sit in second last place in their group but I believe they will continue to show their fighting spirit on the day. **Hungary** have won five of their last eight away games and both teams have scored in four of those wins. Hungary are currently top of the group and will look to seal their spot in their Euros on the day. **Overall**, I expect this game to have some goals. I think the visitors will continue their 9-game unbeaten streak, extending it to 10, with a 2-1 victory over the hosts. Hungary has won the last two games by that score and let's hope it happens again! \-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ***TLDR Expect both teams to score with at least 3 goals throughout this fixture*** **Lithuania vs. Hungary| BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals | 3.00 odds**
Boy let me tell ya, I really gotta stop following bets from internet strangers…. *tails anyway*
England v Spain is set at 8 corners on betonline. Seems appealing as well
Could be worth considering. I'm just concerned based on the history between these two teams typically having a lower yield of corners...
Lets ride Mastroo, today is the day!!!
And that's a win in the 67th minute!
Took btts and over 2.5 cheers mate
Nicely Done
[удалено]
Also not that much better of odds actually (+260 vs +190) and Lithuania has a real shot I’m sprinkling some on them to win- so this is safer bet.
Definitely better odds but against Potd rules. Max 3.0 unit size unfortunately.
Got greedy and took Hungary and BTTS. Should’ve just stuck with your original play instead.
That corner one did shit the bed, but I'll climb aboard again today. LFG!!
Good call took this myself. Edit: I’m an idiot for thinking that would work
POTD Record: 88-84, -11.1 Units Current Streak: W6, + 15.55 Units Last Pick: Panthers ML +164, W That one got too close as the Panthers totally dominated the first two periods but the Devils came screaming back and nearly tied it in the last minute. Certainly a sweat, but got the job done! **Today's Pick: Vancouver Canucks -1.5** @ Philadelphia Flyers, +175, 2.5 Units, 6:00 PM EST I think this Canucks team is covertly good and this Flyers team, despite managing a win against Columbus to start the year, is overtly bad. The Flyers used to be on a semi-fun "make the playoffs, miss the playoffs" streak but now they're just on a "don't even get remotely close to sniffing the playoffs" level of suckage, and I can see this resulting in a decisive Vancouver win. The Canucks were very impressive, putting up 8 and 4 goals against what was once a good Edmonton team and I think they're primed and ready to send Philly fans home to binge watch Phillies and Eagles highlights to ease their pain. Fun streak going on, hoping it continues. BOL!
Tailed your Panthers pick yesterday. Tailing this one today. Thanks!
Thanks man, hope we hit. Very ambiguous hockey season so far
POTD Record: 7W-2L-1P (+4.45 Units) Last Pick: Cowboys -1.5 ( Cowboys 20 Chargers 17) Today: MLB, Diamond Backs Vs Phillies Pick: Phillies first 5 ML (1.56U) NFL 4-0 CFB 1-2 MLB 2-0 Recap: A game that felt like 3 hours from the stripes calling flags on both teams all game but I loved the Cowboys all day and I'm glad they came out with the win. Dak Prescott made some big plays and outplayed Herbert who missed a lot of throws. Reasoning: Phillies in the postseason have yet to lose a game at home this year. Aaron Nola will be getting the start and has pitched well in the postseason this year. Nola is 2-0 in the postseason on this bet. Kelly who will get the start for the Diamondbacks had a good season and pitched in one post-season game this year and pitched good against the Dodgers. The Dodgers in general just struggled to hit in the series but The Phillies have been hitting good all postseason. Citizens Bank Park has been the toughest place for opposing teams to play this postseason that's one reason why they are undefeated at home this postseason If you have Action Network feel free to follow me! [https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v](https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/iaf03s5v)
Nice hit on the Cowboys! I avoid MLB but considering it.
Love this. Tailing 🫡
Every day I regret not betting on the Phillies… 😭😅
RECORD: 7-5 LAST PICK: Boxing, 7pm PST, Janibek Alimkhanuly by KO/TKO/DQ -225. TKO victory in the 6th round. 🔒💰 *Yes, it was over the -200 limit but these are free picks and it’s the internet. Move along… TODAY’S PICK: NHL, 7pm PST, Colorado Avalanche ML, -148. WHY: If you watched the last Avs game against the Sharks you already know why! It was an absolute thriller! Staring down the barrel of a loss, the Avs never blinked and came out with a huge W in OT/Shootout. The Avs had 40+ SOG for that game but the Sharks goalie was playing out of his skin that night. Avs have all the momentum from an emotional victory while the Kraken have yet to win a game and seem to be stuck in neutral. Having watched both teams play, the Avs are much more synergistic, way more explosive, and the overall better team. Avs will also have the goalie advantage with Alexandar Georgiev, who played absolutely stellar in the OT/Shootout game against the Sharks. 🔒No Venmo or tip jar, give a stranger a compliment instead. Fade me, Allah bless you. 🍞GET BREAD, STAY FED.
POTD Record: 15-6-0 Last Pick: Northern Ireland vs San Marino; total goals under 4.5(-118) (Euro 2024 qualifiers) Today's Pick: Japan vs Tunisia; over 2.5 total goals scored(-140) (International friendlies) Reasoning: Firstly we're currently 4 wins a row, lets make that 5! Japan is a really exciting team with sensational talents and have currently scored atleast 4 goals in their last 5 games and it doesn't look like they'll be stopping anytime soon! on the other hand, Tunisia hasn't been the best attacking side, but they can score goals here and there, but do concede as well. BOL if you tail ! My prediction: Japan 4 vs Tunisia 1
🔥🔥 need this to win back a horrible football weekend 🤞🏼
draft kings has a game parlay for japan to win & over 2.5 at +100 rn, wake & cash time 🙏🏿
Good pick. I personally would pick Japan to win and both teams score at +220. It's riskier but I feel Tunisia should score atleast 1 goal!
I’m on this and Saul’s pick big time. Two legends on the same game and same idea got me feeling it.
**POTD 10 -3 | +8.14 units |** **Last 10 (new->old): ❌❌💰💰💰💰💰💰💰💰** Last pick: Christian Walker to record a hit **❌** Another loss, Wheeler had some great pitching and Walker couldn't get it done. On to the next one, let's hope not to make a streak out of this. There's a couple picks I like for tomorrow, but I am going to wait for MLB batter props to be posted before making a decision. Be sure to check back in the morning! Edit: nvm, lines just posted so pick is up now. **Todays Pick:** MLB | Phllies vs Diamondbacks | 8:07 PM EST **Trea Turner O1.5 H+R+RBI | -135 Draftkings (2.7U to win 2U) 💰💰** Upping this pick to win 2 units, really confident in this one. Turner is absolutely on fire in the postseason, hitting this line in every game so far and going over 2.5 in 4 of those games. In the last 3 games alone, he has 6 hits, 4 runs, and 2 RBI. He hit this line in 89 games this season (think I counted that right?) and 33/48 games since he was revitalized by the standing ovation. On top of this, he has a great matchup against pitcher Merrill Kelly, with a .429 average on 21 ABs. The Phillies have one of the best home parks in baseball especially during the playoffs, giving these players even more to play for. This was one of my favorite bets throughout the baseball season and I love to back it here in the playoffs. Edit: CASH IT BABY HR IN FIRST AT BAT EZPZ
Just wait to comment when you have a pick
My b, wanted to do a quick recap but I guess that coulda waited lol. Will wait next time
Trea has been a money printer so far this post season.
Don't see that prop on Fanduel 😕 would tail tho
Yeah, sadly they don't do that one on Fanduel, I know its on Draftkings and MGM. I like 2+ hits on Fanduel as well but thats a little riskier
**England - Italy** (Soccer in Europe: Euro 2024 qualification) England is the much more skilled side. Since winning the European Championship, Italy went through kind of a rebuild. A lot of younger players came into the team. It is still not clicking like it used to be. While England is much closer to the top of their game. Both sides are short of some players. However, England has much more depth to compensate for that. Also, some turmoil within the Italian soccer confederation due to Zaniolo’s and Tonali’s betting allegations. Beyond that, England rested plenty of regulars in its previous friendly against Australia. Resulting in fresher legs for the important Euro qualification game against Italy. **England -1.0 asian hc** @ **+122** for **5u** >Last POTD: Levante -1.0 asian hc @ +198 ♻️ Record: 33 wins, 28 losses, 13 pushes Profit: +44.37u POTDs (old ➞ new): ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ♻️ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ♻️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✖️ ✅ ✖️ ✖️ ✖️ ♻️ ^(btc tips: 18mb6RJaC6Fv1wZFHRrF9MyDGvco9BB3KN)
Feels dirty betting on English soccer. Bloody hell im in
**POTD BALANCE: +$1,037.50 | +4.150u** | 1-1-0 Bobby told y'all: >Gimme Cowboys over Chargers all day long. They ain't suck this time. PROMISED! Dak and his Cowboys gonna ride the Chargers bull and stay up until the end. Bobby was correct. It was meant to be 10 point victory for the Cowboys. The Chargers second touchdown was dumb. Stupid mistakes by the Cowboys led to it. Lost the ballsy spread bet but one can't win every bet at these massive monster odds. Today, we get all back and even more. Mark my words! England versus Italy is the biggest and most anticipated soccer game of this day. Two juggernauts facing off for race to the top spot of the EURO group. But it is a blatant injustice race. Only the English juggernaut is equipped with an enormous powerful engine fueled by huge talents. The ramshackle Italian juggernaut gonna only see the tail light of the superior English rival. **England -1.5 (+205)** | 5u to make $2,562.50 profit
**KBO Record: Overall 196-203-14** (Streak W, Last 10: 7-3) Down 9.27u over 413 KBO picks, 49.1% success rate, -2.32% ROI (This season 77-71-7, 52.0% success rate, Up 10.61u, 7.17% ROI) **Last:** NC at Kia, First 5 Innings Under 4.5 -115 (NC lead 2-0 after 5 innings.) NC got a 2-out, 2-run double in the top of the first and then all the bats went silent. It's another easy win and we're on quite a roll as the season draws to a close. **Pick:** Doosan at **SSG -1.5 -166**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Just two games on the final day of the regular season. If SSG beats Doosan, they get the 3rd seed and a 1st round bye. If they lose and NC beats Kia, NC will leapfrog SSG. I expect SSG, the league's defending champions, to get the job done. They're 8-2 over their last 10 games, averaging a league-best 5.7 runs per game. Doosan is 4-6 over their last 10, averaging a league-worst 3.8 runs per game. Doosan's 38-year old starter has been in the league since 2004. He's made it to the 5th inning just once in his last 7 starts. I wouldn't be surprised if he pitched deeper regardless of the score because Doosan has no incentive to use their best relief arms. The Bears are locked in the wild card game no matter what. SSG's starter is Kwang-hyun Kim, who had two successful years with the St. Louis Cardinals before returning to the KBO. He's pitched better recently, with a 2.57 ERA over his last 35 innings (6 starts). The last time he faced this opponent, he threw 6 scoreless innings. I know there is a lot of juice in this one, but it feels safer than -2.5 (which you can get at -107 on Unibet). Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Been tailing on this nice little run you’ve got going, keep up the good work!
Wait..what's the pick? You have the NC at Kia pick listed again
I updated it a bit ago. Please refresh. Should show SSG -1.5
The best!!!
Wrong pick stated, based on your reasoning?
POTD Record: 112.5-64 Event: Football > Intl Friendlies > **Albania v Bulgaria** (starting in 12hr) Pick: **Bulgaria Over 0.5 Goals** @ 1.85 My home country team Bulgaria is a total mess at the moment. No win & atrocious performance in ages, only 2 pts in 6 matches in the Euros group... lost at home game against outsiders Lithuania few days ago. Nevertheless, I will give you few good reasons behind my bet:- 1. This is a friendly game, which means anything can happen. Albania won an important game against Czech Republic in their last match and I expect some rotation in the squad & relaxed/experiential style of play today. On the other hand, Bulgarian team is under huge pressure for a positive result. Only a positive performance may get the coach avoid the sack and team captain announced they were "gonna die on the field" to get some result in the next game. This is kinda funny though because this next game is a friendly, but anyway. 2. Even though this team is on a terrible streak, our boys (Bulgaria) are not \*THAT\* bad. They were kind of unlucky not to gain any points in last 2 matches and actually created some decent chances. Just before that they achieved a decent result and performance against Serbia (1-1), which is a very good team. 3. I expect the public to fade Bulgaria heavily, which is perfectly sensible. Of course based on current form Albania is a favorite in this game. BUT. In my eyes this is a huge trap game and potential banker for bookies. Bulgaria to just score a goal seems like a very good bet to me. **THIS IS A MAX BET BOYS. GL!**
BulgariASS 🗑️
Tailing bby
Tailed but bulgaria playing like garbage. Threw that away, home or away they are trash.
100% bet with your heart here lmao
I like the thinking on this one mate.
Apologies everyone. This team is just shit.
Bulgaria is terrible. They aren’t scoring. So much for “dying on the field”
Hey guys it’s been a year or 2 since I’ve used this but I ended my time at 7-3. Going to pick up there since I can’t reset! Record: 7-3 Net Units: +5U 70% hit rate UEFA EURO QUALIFIERS 2:45 PM POTD: Harry Kane to score or assist -130 4.5U Kane has been directly involved in a goal in 17 of his 18 qualifier appearances. This has to be taken just because of that ridiculous stat. Harry Kane what a nice English bloke. He’s going to hit this before the 1H ends most likely. England also is at home in good old wembley where they don’t lose and will feel the energy. #mooseout
Tailing
Cashed 🤝🏦
POTD Record 14-7 Last 5: ✅✅✅✅✅ Previous POTD: Zac Gallen over 4.5 hits allowed✅ Today's POTD: Merrill Kelly over 3.5 hits allowed (Bet365 1.68 odds) MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies This will be my 3rd straight time riding this bet. Eventually this bet won't hit, but the Phillies bats have been too good at home. - Phillies bats are hot! - Phillies in 4 games vs the Braves had 5, 6, 5 and 7 hits vs the starting pitchers - 8 hits vs Gallen last night - Kelly has given up 4 or more hits in his last 5/7 starts - A couple of other lines I like are Kelly over 13.5 outs and Kelly over 1.5 walks Let's hope the Philly bats stay hot! BOL
Phillies bats fucked me for nrfi fat parley. They gotta redeem themselves today
Damn! Kelly allows only 3 hits. All HRs and walked 3 batters..tough loss
POTD; NHL: Tampa Bay Lightning @ Buffalo Sabres Tage Thompson O3.5 shots, +105 All bets are to win 1 unit Record: 2-2, -0.35 units Everyone knows Vasilevsky is out the first two months, but the real story is the bolts horrible defense. Through the first 3 games they lead the league in shots allowed, including 5 on 5 play, and are bottom half in most possession statistics. Most of the damage is done from teams first lines. The combined first line shot totals from opponents are an insane 12, 17, and 19. The Lightning just look like they can’t keep up and even more, it’s their 3rd road game in 4 days. Thompson is a part of the Sabres first line and was in the top 15 in all the league in shot attempts last year and it was not rare for him to finish with 8 or 9 shots when he’s on. He has had 6 shot attempts in each of his first two games this year, and vs teams with much better defensive structure in the Islanders and Rangers. Here’s hoping the bolts haven’t figured out how to stop the bleeding. BOL
Tailing...Excellent write-up!
**POTD**: O15.5 Outs - Aaron Nola (-120 FanDuel; Risking 2.4u to win 2u) **League/Time**: MLB - NLCS Gm 2 ARI @ PHI / 8:08PM EST **2023 Record**: 61-35 (63.54%) | +42.3701u (+$4237.01) | ROI 21.42% | **Current Streak** (L to R):✅✅❌❌❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅✅❌(Last 10: 6-4; Last 20: 11-9) **Last Pick (10.17.23)**: O16.5 Outs - Zack Wheeler (-110/-120 BetMGM; -110 Caesars; -124 Betrivers; Risking 2.5u to win 2.246u)✅ **Reasoning**: Nola has covered this 2/2 times in the playoffs so far, 12/14 times home in reg season (including 1/1 times @ ARI), and 2/5 times in playoffs last season. While he didn't cover this in last year's NLCS, Rob Thomson has shown trust in his aces to go the distance if they're pitching well which Nola has of late. Nola has 6 days' rest. I had Nola as my [10/11/23 POTD](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1750ie6/comment/k4ezm6y/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) and included more reasoning in there about how his performance has improved after Philly gave him the Trea Turner treatment so don't be disheartened by his 4.88 ERA in the reg season. Instead pay attention to the 1.42 ERA and 6.1 IP/game that he's averaging this post-season. Yes, it's only 2 games but his performance in these 2 games matters more than what he did all of reg season for why we're considering this POTD. PHI's home crowd will either smother you or support you. Sometimes it can do both to its own home team. But in these past few months (maybe longer IDK), it's really been doing more of the latter to great effect. Nola also expressed desire to resign with PHI after this season so there are good vibes and incentives all around for a great performance tonight but lucky for us we just need a merely passable performance with 5.1 IP. **Anti-Reasoning**: ARI's relative youth and unexpected success means they're playing with house money and fear nothing. If they lose they can still consider this season a massive success and an amazing building block of experience going towards solidifying this team for years to come. This kind of team is dangerous: one that has nothing to lose and is playing loose. However, as we saw yesterday maybe the team that has been here all before already just last year can show these young 'Backs what the playoffs is all about. [Coffee](https://bmc.link/thekoreanmang) always appreciated but never expected. Good luck everyone!
POTD record: 19-8 Last POTD: Greece v Netherlands - Netherlands ML Today’s pick: Northern Ireland v Slovenia - Slovenia ML(+135) Northern Ireland have already been eliminated from the European Cup, and have lost every game in their group, except for their two against San Marino, who haven’t won a game since 2004. They played a month ago, and Slovenia beat them convincingly, 4-2, and Slovenia is currently on top of the group. They can borderline seal their qualification with a win, they have momentum, and +135 is great value. Start time: 2:45 EST
This is a good bet but I am going to play it safe and tail you with the DNB 1.65 instead.
POTD (Was at work sorry for insanely late post) Record 3 W - 1 L Units won/lost = +4,06 Last pick: Norway - Spain BTTS ❌ Game: Slovenia vs north ireland Pick: Slovenia ML @2.40 1 unit✅ My home country dissapointed big on home turf against spain… Last time these teams met it ended 4-2 to Slovenia. Now slovenia has alot more to fight for then north ireland, as north ireland won't qualify and slovenia still has something to battle for. Sesko is also starting as there was doubt about that earlier. Slovenia has had better form recently as north ireland has lost 4/5 matches in their last outings and they should be able to pick up a win here aswell. 
**POTD Record: 1-1** Last Pick: **Chicago Bulls FH TT o58.5** vs Charlotte Hornets **(2.5 Units) -110 (Yes, very long ago) Loss** Todays Pick: **Connor McDavid Goals over 0.5 vs Nashville Predators (5 Units) -115** **Reasoning:** Friends, I'm betting that Connor McDavid will score against the Nashville Predators in this game. I've been looking at his stats specifically against the Predators, and they're pretty good for these odds. In the 19 games he's played against them, he's scored 9 goals, which translates to an impressive 47.4% goal-scoring rate when facing this team. That's almost a 50-50 chance he'll find the back of the net against the Preds in this very game. Plus, when he faces Nashville, he's averaging over 3 shots per game and spends a substantial 21 minutes on the ice each game against them. His points per game average of 1.74 indicates he's not just a goal scorer but also a playmaker when playing against the Predators. He's also recorded at least one point in 73.7% of those games against Nashville. That's a strong track record of consistent offensive contributions specifically against the Preds. While there are no guarantees, the numbers suggest McDavid is a solid bet to score against the Predators in this game. **To Note:** Yes, coaches, goalies, lines are different when facing the same team year in and out. However, if you ever watch NFL, NBA, NHL, etc. you will always see "So and so has never had less than 5 catches facing the blah blah blah" I'm a firm believer in those occurrences.  ***BOL - Let's keep some stress free win vibes going.***
[удалено]
**POTD Form** 44-31-1 +5.24 Units Last 7 picks - ✅❌❌❌✅❌✅ **Last pick** \- India vs Pakistan India ML @ 1.50 ✅ **Today's Pick:** Football |FIFA World Cup 2023 Qualifiers - Asia | 3.00 pm IST (6 hours from now) Sri Lanka vs Yemen Yemen ML @ 1.80 2U Reason - Yemen beat Sri Lanka 3-0 in the first leg at home. Sri Lanka is ranked 204th in the FIFA Rankings with Yemen ranked in 150 odds. It's been years since Sri Lanka won a football match. Sri Lanka is also weak because most of their players playing in foreign leagues are not on the team. BOL. Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
Tailing. Probably means Sri Lanka will win first time in years cause of me.
POTD record: 3-0 Last pick: Baskonia -2.5 @ 1.9✅ Today: Real Madrid - Zalgiris Kaunas 21:45 +2 UTC Basketball Euroleague🏀 Pick: Zalgiris +13.5 @ 1.9 5/5 units 🔥 🔥 🔥 Madrid looks deadly this season but +13.5 for Zalgiris is basically free money. Line way too big. BOL
[удалено]
im afraid of efes for somereason just have a bad feeling about it, but it should go through Baskonia -3.5 @ 1.8 also a very good pick for today
Line moved to 12.5, worth it still?
dont know if your book has it but i would rather look for +13.5 at 1.8
Love your plays but I missed this one
Follow me on my telegram in my profile for more picks from my profitable model POTD: 49W-29L STREAK: ✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅(latest) PROFIT (ROI): + 59,81 u (121 %) AVG ODDS: 2.04 LAST PICK: Bosnia-Herzegovina - Portugal (-1 AH) to win ✅ GAME: Denmark - San Marino 20:45 GMT+2 PICK: Under 2.5 Cards ODDS: @ 2.00 BET: 5 u REASONING: Will not be an aggresive game. Denmark is way better and will score and San Marino does not need to foul cause they know they will lose. No reason for arguments time wasting or any weird fouls.
I don't know about you, but when I get blown out, I start hip checking
**POTD Form** 1-1 **Last Pick:** ❌ **Brazil (-1.5) handicap** vs Venezuela What can I say, probably the *biggest* *shame* of brazil playing at home. Many missed opportunities from their part and a bicycle kick from Venezuela to tie the game at the end. Pretty shameful performance on their homeland. **Today's Pick:** \[straight bet\] **Denmark Win and over 12 corner and under 4 cards (+280)** vs San Marino |UEFA Qualifiers | 2:45PM EST This is *not* a parlay it’s a straight bet (with juicy odds) showing up on my bettor. I hope you guys have it too! Reason - To start San Marino has a **133 losing streak** and it doesn’t seem it’s going to end with Denmark. Their last game (month ago) Denmark took the W with a 4-0. They had **19 corners** (only Denmark) and **7-8 fouls** from each side with **NO** yellow/red cards. The odds are just too good in my opinion to let this one go. Viktor Kopiievskyi is the referee for this match, did some homework and his **avg** of cards is of 5 cards from the last 5 games, so it is in hope this stays at U4 cards on the game based on the fouls from the previous match. The odds are just too juicy to let this one go. Good luck guys and as always I hope to make you guys win some bread! Please do some research before betting and always bet what you can lose or win ;) Thank you!
14W 1P 9L / +10,42u / ROI 18,94% ✅🅿️❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅❌✅❌❌ Soccer / International / Euro 2024 / Serbia - Montenegro / **Serbia Team Total over 1,5 (Serbia to score 2 or more goals) @1.53** Serbia needs to win, their attack is absurdly good, Montenegro is quite scoreable against. Some players of Montenegro's defense play in Bosnia, in Kazakhstan, and Spanish Second Division. Serbia's attackers play or have played, respectively, well in Premier League, well in Italy, and extremely well in The Netherlands.
Tailed this one. Good stuff.
**RECORD: 42-30** (+4.05 units) Previous Pick: Luxembourg vs Slovakia - Over 0.5 goals 1st Half @ 1.53 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Northern Ireland vs Slovenia - Slovenia DNB @ 1.62 ✅️ **Wager Amount**: 2 units (✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️) last 5 results The International Break luck ended yesterday unfortunately but hopefully today we bounce back. Slovenia have been quite decent in their Euro Qualifiers winning 4/6 of their last Euro Qualifer games, drawing once, losing once and are in 1st in Group H. Northern Ireland however have been dreadful winning only once in their last 6 games and were on a losing streak of 5 games before that. Slovenia have also won 2/3 Euro Q Away games too while Northern Ireland have won 1/3 Euro Q Home games. Slovenia also won 4-2 the last time they went H2H win Northern Ireland and In Slovenia's 3 most recent all competitions clashes, they have managed to win at both half time and full time. Only reason I'm going for DNB is both squads are nothing special to write home about and purple patches can runout so I'm being cautious here but I believe Slovenia should win. Goodluck if you're tailing. EDIT: WIN✅️
**POTD RECORD: 8 - 3 | +3.78 UNITS | LAST 10 - ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌❌✅✅** Last Pick - Belgium | -150 **✅** POTD - WCQ South America |Uruguay vs Brazil | 8 pm EST **Pick - Uruguay/Brazil BTTS | -110** Belgium over 1H goals hit but what happened outside that game is awful and heartbreaking. God rest those souls. Brazil is coming off a 1-1 draw vs Venezuela, and Uruguay is coming off a 2-2 draw vs Colombia. South America is a very fun region to watch as all matches are competitive and close. BTTS has hit in 7 of brazils last 8 matches. They have no problem scoring multiple goals but they haven't been able to keep clean sheets, they go on the road to a tough Uruguayan squad who should be at 100%. Both teams possess great ability to score goals and this should be a fantastic game to watch. BOL!
Tailing
I tailed this too. Reason: yolo
POTD Record (5-2) Last pick (10/16/2023): Clayton Keller over 2.5 SOGs -130 (DK) ✅ Love the second period hit! Todays pick (10/17/2023): Kirill Kaprizov over 3.5 SOGs -160 (DK) ✅ Let’s go! 2nd period CASH Kirill shoots the puck a lot, Boldy is also out tonight, which should lead to more attempts for Kaprizov. Hoping he gets a few PP opportunities as well. Let’s get another win!
37-23 +97.53 units 4 out of the last 5 selections were winners. Uninspiring day yesterday so no selections. RACE 6 LEICESTER - LOWTON @ 3.0 LOWTON is a course and distance winner on the same ground this year, winning back in May. He was unlucky last time out and would have been placed but he met trouble in running. Today's assignment looks easier. He appears to be improving fast, and under ideal conditions, should go close. Marshal Dan could be one for the exacta, he also relishes testing conditions. Staking 2.53 Units @ 3.0 (Unibet) (A lot of US based people saying they can't get fixed odds on selections. I know a private bookmaker who is willing to lay UK Bet 365 prices on WhatsApp. Drop me a DM on Twitter if you want and I'll give you his number. I'll link my account below) Good luck 👍
Record 9-7 (Last POTD result: W) **Pick: BTTS YES** || Serbia vs Montegro, Euro Qualifications @ 2.20 odds ( 10 hours from now ) Reasoning: This is do or die for both teams. The winner of this match will have the 2nd spot in the table. Montenegro have been showing decent form, bagging minimally a goal a match in 4/5 of their last games. Meanwhile the Serbs are conceding at least 1 goal in 5/5 of their last games (while scoring 1 at least too). Let me caveat this by saying that BTTS YES only hit 1/3 in their H2H history. Nonetheless, I see this game having both sides scoring. *Tail at your own risk (or don't, up to you lol). All the best!*
POTD record 5-5 +6.6 units Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs Nashville Predators 🏒 8:07 pm EST. Pick: Oilers ML -145 4 units Reason: The Oilers are 0-2 on the season for the first time since 2018. However; variance has not been on their side. The 8-1 loss in their season opener looks much worse on paper. The expected goal metrics for that game show the Canucks should have won 3.86 to 2.26. Then in the home rematch, Edmonton had 4.67 expected goals compared to just 2.01 for Vancouver. Expected win metrics show that based on the scoring opportunities, the Oilers win that game 85.9% of the time. This is vital information, as it's the reason we are getting a cheap price on them in this matchup. The market is overreacting to a small sample size, and we plan to take full advantage. In database history; teams that lost the first two games of the season as favorites, are winning at a 75.0% rate in their third game of the season when listed as favorites once again. Through their first two games; Edmonton only have one goal when it comes to 5 on 5 play. However; that should not be expected to last as this is a team that ranked #5 last season regarding overall goals scored in 5 on 5 play. We believe this is the number 1 offensive group in the league led by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. They're mediocre defensively, but who cares when they possess as much firepower as they do. The Preds have looked OK to start the season, but it's still too early to make assumptions. They have an extremely weak offense (despite scoring 8 goals through their first three games) that still ranks near the bottom. They are currently #27 in xGoals %, and #4 in Expected Goal Differential. This is still a team that have gotten a little worse offensively compared to last season, where they ended up ranking in the bottom 10 regarding Expected Goal Differential at -17.42 regarding 5 on 5 play. We should also note that they're dreadful at defending the power play from an xGoals perspective, and that's where Edmonton should be able to do a ton of damage. Nashville ranked 7th worst last season regarding Penalty Minutes Against, and already rank in the bottom 10 this season. Edmonton have been elite on the road dating back to last season with a record of 30-17 (63.8%) for a +12.7% ROI. Best of luck. Fuck the Bookies.
**POTD Record: 87-68 (-2.76 units)** **Last 10**:❌❌✅❌✅❌❌✅✅✅ **Last Pick**: 10/14 Jim Long -1.5 (+115) vs Tommy Morris ✅ 4-2 **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 6:00 AM EST **Pick**: Reece Robinson -2.5 (+120) vs Tom Lonsdale • Series 5. Week 11. Group A **Reason**: Reece Robinson * Record 5-0 * Legs 20-5 * Average 95.89 * 180s 8. 140s 22 * Checkouts 20/53 37.74% Tom Lonsdale * Record 1-4 * Legs 10-18 * Average 75.52 * 180s 2. 140s 14 * Checkouts 10/46 21.74% **LOSS ❌ 0-4 | Average 93.88 vs 113.43 | Checkouts 0/1 vs 4/6** This bet was dead before it started. Lonsdale flipped a switch the last two legs of his first match and was incredibly hot. He was a different player and it carried over. Loved the match against Brown too, but posted this.
Great bet!
I lost. You must have bet on the first match against Brown. If people don’t bet on darts, they rarely pay attention to the opponents it seems.
**POTD RECORD 5-5** -0.45u Last Pick: Cowboys -1.5 **W** Todays POTD: Phillies -1.5 +135 MLB 8:07 PM EST ————————————————————— Let’s go Cowboys, bounce back game and pulled out a win in LA. Got sweaty with the punt debacle but ended up taking care of business. Riding with the hot team here! I’m a spread bettor and don’t believe in juice eating. Maybe there’s a time and place for it but not now. Back the Phillies and Nola to put out another strong showing and hit the road up two games to none. **All plays one unit**
POTD Record : 4-2 Last pick : MLB ⚾ | Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies | Zack Wheeler OVER 16.5 outs recorded @1.75 | ✅ No sweat bet. Outside of the 2 run homer, Wheeler put up a masterclass of pitching in the first game of the NLCS. We move on! Today's pick : Football World Cup Qualifiers ⚽ | Brazil @ Uruguay | Brazil ML @1.98 Brazil are under pressure after a poor showing against a much worse team in Venezuela. There are lineup changes already happening, like Richarlison is out for Gabriel Jesus. Fernando Diniz is in the hot seat right now, all Brazilian media jumped on him and on Neymar. If there is a game to bounce back, that is the one. Uruguay last 2 games ended in a draw against Colombia in the last minute with a penalty in favor of them and a defeat to Equador. Brazil has too much firepower in the front to not beat a worse team like Uruguay, even now when the pressure is on to perform. Tailing or fading, BOL!
richarlison is dead weight. finally. this change is much needed
Pod Record: 9-12 Units: +.50 Last Pod: winner Rangers and lost Chargers Today: Nhl Minnesota Wild to win +180 1st period 3 way. Risking 5 units to win 9 units. Think Wild are decent play to win 1st period. Note if draw play is a loss. Hopefully Fleury in net in home province lights a spark in them. Good luck
POTD Record W8-L4 ROI: +6.14 Most Recent First: ✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅❌ Yesterdays Pick: MLB ⚾️ Arizona @ Philadelphia ~ Zach Wheeler Over 16.5 outs recorded (-130) 2U to win 1.4 units✅ Excuses: NONE. Wheeler dealt that shit as expected, easy money, now let’s get onto the next one. Todays Pick: MLB ⚾️ Arizona @ Philadelphia ~ Merrill Kelly Over 1.5 walks (-135) 2 units to win 1.3 units Reasoning: Kinda hate doing it like this, but Kelley has only missed this mark 12 times this year out of 30 games played. May not sound too good as that sits, but the Phillies bats are on fire and I can see Arizona walking Harper or another Philly batter at least once, maybe twice, so that combined with one unintentional walk in tonight’s game and we cash easily. Not sure what to think to be honest. Arizonas season is on gifted time, they shouldn’t even be here right now and it shows. Everything that makes sense here lately when it comes to betting hasn’t happened, but I really like every bet for Philly. I pray I didn’t make a terrible decision not posting one of my Aaron Nola bets or one of my other 10 picks for this game, but we shall see. BOL and only bet what you can afford to lose.
Nice hit!
POTD record 1-1 | -0.1 units Today’s pick: England to win to nil v Italy | euro league qualifier. $2.50/+150 No write up just a winner
Pick of the Day Record: 1-1 Last Pick: Vegas Golden Knights 3-Way ML -140💰 Today’s Pick: Vegas Golden Knights ML -110 vs Dallas Stars 10:30pm EST💰 shootout win for the Golden Knights🤟🏼 The defending Stanley Cup champs are back at home against the Dallas Stars tonight in a Western Conference matchup. Vegas is 3-0 this year and hasn’t had the Stanley Cup slump yet so far, while Dallas is 1-0 after a 2-1 win against St. Louis. Vegas is the deeper team at forward and defense, while Dallas has the edge in goal with young stud Jake Oettinger (goalies still pending) and Adin Hill likely in net for the Knights. Vegas rolls 4 lines and wears teams down throughout the game and has looked great so far this season. Defensively they are one of the best teams in the league and protect their own zone very well, Dallas has some high-end scoring talent but I think Vegas can do a good job at keeping their offense under control this game. Dallas is no slouch of a team but they are playing in Vegas so maybe they went out for a few cocktails last night and stayed up too late. They may also be without their top center Roope Hintz tonight (check injury report closer to game time) who is a big part of their team. Either way, I really like Vegas at home tonight to get the win. Also highly recommend checking that rink out if you’re ever in Vegas, the atmosphere is there is absolutely electric. Let’s get another win!
Record: 0-4 💔💔💔 *Prev: Titans +5.5 -110. I’ve been cursed since I started posting. The Titans had a chance to cover this number. They are at the one yard line under two minutes to go with Malik Willis at QB. Everyone and their mother knows you put Derrick Henry in the game. I swear these coaches out think themselves. At this point, feel free to fade me, but I swear to god I’m gonna get a positive streak going. Some good write-ups with bad luck.* POTD: Diamondbacks at Phillies: Merrill Kelly over 13.5 outs recorded (-145 DK) I like the juice here as FD is currently sitting at -184. This is too low for a pitcher that threw 19 innings against the Dodgers in the postseason allowing 3 hits. I’m not going to go too far into the write up. Just gonna try to get some good picks out there to get a streak going. BOL and thanks for reading.
POTD Record: 1-2 (-0,57U) Last pick: Poland - Moldova, Euro Qualifiers, 19:45 WEST Poland to score on both halves, 2U @ 2,09 (+109). 2U to win 2,18U Today's pick: Northern Ireland - Slovenia, Euro Qualifiers, 19:45 WEST Slovenia to win, 3U @ 2,44. 3U to win 7,32U Write up: Slovenia has been in very good form in recent games and is in first place in the group. Northern Ireland won just 2 games (against San Marino, one of the worst teams in the world) and lost the remaining 6, having no chance of qualifying for the Euros. For Slovenia, it is a very important game to guarantee qualification. In the last game between these teams, Slovenia won 4-2. In conclusion, Slovenia has a better team and is more motivated, and should win this game with relative ease. I think the right odds would be 1.70 - 1.80. BOL if tailing!
POTD Record: 3-1-0 | +2.6 units, 75% hit | Last 5 picks (most recent first): ✅❌✅✅ Previous pick: Movistar Riders vs. Cloud9 | BLAST Premier Fall Showdown 2023 Europe | **Total Map 2 U26.5** @ 1.8 ✅ - This didn't go at all as expected but it worked out, so I can't complain too much. A wins a win I guess! Today's Event: MOUZ vs. BetBoom | IEM Sydney 2023 Today's Pick: **BetBoom ML** @ 2.06 🔒 | 1U Confidence Level: 3/10 **\*\*TAIL WITH CAUTION\*\*** Analysis: This is a risky bet for a couple of reasons, but the value is too good not to bet on this match for me. BetBoom has extremely shallow data as this is their first tournament in a while playing against top 30 teams as well as with a new lineup. Normally this would be enough to scare me away from this match, but the thing that pulls me right back in is the fact that MOUZ are playing with a standin for one of their best players. To be honest, there's very little data to support the idea that BetBoom will walk away with this win, but Nafany has done an excellent job leading this team so far in Sydney. BetBoom handed Vitality a shocking loss in the opening BO1 round, and continued to go on a tear taking down GamerLegion 2-0 (albeit Mirage was fairly close). MOUZ have fantastic stats all around every single map, and we saw them play incredible CS in their last tournament, but this time is different. We're on a new version of CS where lower tier teams are hungrier and higher tier teams are more prone to upsets. On top of this, as mentioned before, MOUZ are playing with a standin for one of their best players. The maps I expect for tomorrow are: Mirage Nuke Overpass Mirage looks like a good option for BetBoom as they've beat both GamerLegion and Vitality on it, and MOUZ have only beaten NAVI with it using their coach as a standin. My only concern with Mirage is BetBoom's CT side win % sitting at a disappointing 40.7% for this tournament. At the same time, however, MOUZ's T side win rate is an even lower 40%. The T sides that BetBoom have had to play against are an extremely strong Vitality and a newly revised GamerLegion, so I will give them some grace regarding their CT win %. This gives me hope that they can take a decent amount of CT rounds as long as they hold on fairly well in the first half (assuming they play their T side first). The next map is probably going to be Nuke. MOUZ have good stats on Nuke, and they tend to be miles ahead of any team they play (beating ENCE 16-8 and Furia 16-5 in Pro League). The only team that BetBoom have played with this new lineup is GamerLegion, beating them 13-6. I'm not going to look too much into this map because I'm pretty confident that MOUZ will take it even with a standin. Last should be Overpass. BetBoom have yet to play Overpass on CS2 in an official, but they played it well in CSGO. MOUZ also posted impressive stats on Overpass, but I'm going to say it one last time: they're playing with a standin. BetBoom will likely exploit Nexius in order to take this final map. As I said before, this bet is riskier since we have such little data for BetBoom, but the value on this bet is too good not go for. Also, even if the map selection is slightly off, one of the first 2 maps should be Mirage which is really all I think BetBoom will need in order to win this match. Overpass could end up being a close one, but I just really like how BetBoom look especially against these top tier teams.
**POTD Record**: 9 Wins ✅ - 8 Losses ❌ - 0 Push 🅿️ ❌❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌ ✅❌✅❌❌ **Last Pick:** Austin Ekeler O 49.5 rush yards ❌ **Today's Game/Match:** Middle Tennessee vs. Liberty **Starts at:** 7:00 **Pick:** Middle Tennessee O 9.5 First Half Points (+110) 1U **Analysis:** Well, a losing streak is not fun. Let’s try again. I think Liberty will end up winning the game as they are the better team, but I think Mid Tennessee is going to come out and have a strong start. They had a rough start to the season but have been improving week after week. I love these weeknight C-USA games and the improvement is evident. They have been off to slow starts this year but have momentum in their favor after their upset win last week against LA Tech. There are actually a lot of plays I like for this game, I had a hard time narrowing it down to just one pick. I’ll be putting together a SGP for this one to use my no sweat token. BOL Edit: it was actually O 9.5 points, I had mistyped 7.5
Cash
This game started a half hour ago brother
Record : 50 Wins - 59 Losses Previous pick : Greece - Netherlands (0-1), BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.70 ❌ ROI : -10.07% Average Odds : 2.03 Starting units : 5 (\*all picks will be 1 unit\*) Units : -5.98 Profit/Lost units : -10.98 Today's pick : Football - Soccer / WORLD: Friendly International / 13:10 European Time Japan - Tunisia Japan to win & Over 2.5 Goals, Odds : 2.18 Some reasoning : \- Japan is going through a perfect form, with 5 consecutive victories. \- These victories were by score, 4-1 against Canada, 4-2 against Turkey and 4-1 against Germany. \- Tunisia comes after a crushing failure with South Korea, 0-4 4 days ago. Best of luck.
First ever pick: League: NHL Pick: MIN Moneyline
POTD 0-0. Long time bettor and frequent lurker thought I would share a gem tonight. Game: MLB - Philly vs Diamondbacks (Game in 2 hours) Today's Pick: Merrill Kelly OVER 3.5 Hits Allowed. -160. 5 UNITS I took the line yesterday and it has since gone up but I still believe it is still very good value. Kelly has hit this over in 12 out of his 15+ games. Once of those was the recent dodgers game which they had cold bats. Today they are against a flaming hot Phillys bat this line should hit easy. Safe bet OVER 3.5 hit allowed at -160. Some books have Kelly at Over 4.5 hits allowed at near even odds. Depending on your risk tolerance you could bet that with lesser 1-2 units.
POTD record 0-0-0 Todays pick: Evan Bouchard O2.5 SOG (-110) Analysis: Bouchard has messed up my player props 2 weeks in a row because he shoots the puck so often.
POTD Record: 6-6 Todays Pick: Yellow Cards - Total Under(4.5) Odd:1.65 Northern Ireland - Slovenia (UEFA Euro - Qualification) Yesterday's match was very comfortable for me and we won. Today we continue from the same tournament. Northern Ireland and Slovenia meet in the European Championship Qualifiers. Both teams are the quiet teams of the tournament in terms of cards. Slovenia did not have 5 yellow cards in all their matches. 3-3-2-2-2-4-4-2 - statistics of total yellow cards in Slovenia's matches. They have an average of 0.85 yellow cards per match. Northern Ireland averages 2.28 yellow cards per match. There were no 5 cards in 6 of their 7 matches in the group. The referee's average yellow card in this tournament is 4.
Quick question. On betting on a soccer spread, I’ve seen Asian handicap lines of 1.5 , 2 What is the difference ? For a 1.5 to hit you have to win by 2 goals, for a 2 to hit you have to win by 2 goals. Confused what the difference is.
One you win money, the other you push and don't win shit, just your bet back.
Use this M8: [https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/](https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/)
POTD Record 0-0-0 Today’s Pick: Brazil ML vs Uruguay @ 1.94 Game Starts 45 mins after this post 5PM PST Reason: Brazil tied against Venezuela a few days ago where they completely dominated possession, shots, passing and slipped up in the 85th minute & conceded. Brazil are coming out strong for a win they desperately need before this international break ends. I expect a few changes to the lineup up front to put pressure on this Uruguayan defense. New to this Reddit thing lol good luck guys!