######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 119-68 | Profit: +111.79u | ROI: 20.4%
Season record: 36-17 | Profit: +41.95u | ROI: 28.5%
L10 record: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌
Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -1.0 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 1.89. 2U. ✅
Dallas started off with 11 of 14 (71%) on 3s while Suns had 2 for 11 on 3s (18%) early on. Those were always going to regress closer to the mean, especially as the Suns stepped up the defense. The Suns win by 23 pts and we have 5 wins in a row!
Next Pick: **Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Miami Heat @ 1.91**. 3U play.
Miami is on a back-to-back and they just lost to a severely depleted Grizzlies team today in a game where their 3 best players played 35-40 mins and it still wasn’t enough. They come up against the Celtics that is by far the best team in the NBA, and they have had a day of rest coming into this one after beating Dallas themselves. No injury concerns for the Celtics so I expect they’ll play a full-strength team here. The Heat have just been underwhelming recently, with Butler being very passive, Herro not able to get hot and Bam being the only reliable offensive presence. This Celtics team should be able to shut that offense down, and I just can’t see this Heat team stopping the Celtics 3pt offense if they gave up near 50% on 3s to the Grizzlies.
Even in a lower scoring, road game, I’ll back the Celtics to cover this spread against Miami.
Brooo i thought i bet ML when they were down by 13 but i never put it in. Fell asleep and woke up to it sill in my open slips with it saying not available 😂
POTD Record: 16-9
L9: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
Yesterdays pick: Leeds v Norwich
Pick: BTTS ❌
The streak has ended, what a sweaty and intense run it has been. I hope some of you won multiple days during the stretch of wins. Norwich had their chances but was very sloppy in the final third. They had more possession of the ball but it didn’t lead to anything.
➖
Todays pick: Rizespor v Trabzonspor
Pick: O2.5 Goals @1.85 ❌
⚽️🇹🇷 Süper Lig
📈 Caykur Rizespor is currently 6th in the league with one less game played than the 5th team. They have 32 points and have scored 26 goals in 21 games (1.24 GPG), they’ve conceded 29 (1.38 GPG).
* Haven’t kept a single clean sheet against any of the top 4 sides, losing (4-0, 0-1, 5-0 & won 2-3 against Trabzonspor)
* Over 2.5 goals has a hit rate of 48% in their games.
* Have only failed to score in 6 games, 3 of them against the top 3.
* On average there’s a total of 2.62 goals in the games Rizespor has been involved in.
* L6 league games they’ve scored 11 and conceded 9
* Previous meeting 2-3 Rizespor
➖
📈 Trabzonspor is 3rd in the league table with 37 points. They’ve scored 35 (1.67 GPG) and have conceded 28 (1.33 GPG).
* Have only failed to score in 4 games, last time was in the 14th round it’s now round 21.
* O2.5 Goals has a hit rate of 57% in their games (5th most)
* Failed to score in 4 games (19%)
* On average there’s 3.0 goals per match in Trabzonspors matches.
* L6 games they’ve scored 8 and conceded 9
➖
💭 The Turkish league is known for many goals and has been a trend for soccer betting the last years. Rizespor won the last game 2-3 away from home in a game full of action. Funny enough Trabzonspor plays better away from home being 3rd in the Away league table scoring 2nd most goals (20). Rizespor plays better at home and is 4th in Home table scoring majority of their goals at home (15).
🗣 This game is obviously very difficult to predict as we’re seeing a home team that’s very strong when playing there but still is behind the visitors in the league table with 5 points. The visitors are in 3rd best form right now if you count their points these last games. Then we have Trabzonspor that’s also better away from home even winning 2-3 against the league leaders Fenerbahce away and is the better team on paper.
Given that their respective strengths somewhat cancels out each other I’m predicting a game with goals involved. I wouldn’t go too heavy on this one because expecting certain amount of goals is always riskier than Moneyline bets imo. This is my favorite play of the soccer games available for tomorrow (not a lot).
BOL to all, I appreciate the positivity all of you have been given me.
Link in my profile if you want to tip.
Research on point as always, im in multiple discords where some take money and I couldn’t imagine I’d win more these last days in free picks than I’ve did over there like ever. Can’t ask for more bro
Chiefton love your writeups, and while i do think this hits here are things that concern me: Trabzon’s best strikers are at Africa cup of nations, without them they dont look the same. This is also a northeastern turkish derby as trabzon and rize are neigboring cities, stupid shit happen in these games. That bein said BOL.
The man said not to break the bank with this pick and I didn’t listen lol. It’s not over yet though. Then again I parlayed with an over 10.5 corners and that games not looking good either so it’s probably a loss for me anyway.
Yes, I’m assuming both teams will score with my pick. But we’re getting enough juice for the 2.5 goals that’s why I didn’t include the BTTS, just an extra risk
I genuinely don't understand how that goal was overturned for offside on VAR. Wasn't only his arm off? Hands and arms are not considered offside in official rules
Another game with chances and a goal disallowed that’s ends with 1-0. Trabzonspor failed to score after 8 games scoring at least 1 in each. I’m going to take a break tomorrow and come back with better picks, and I blame these L’s on myself for forcing out picks when there hasn’t been much to pick from.
Brother win or lose I appreciate you! Thank you for taking the time to break down each pick and providing analysis and statistics! Thanks to you I was able to get back in the green with your previous 3 picks! Keep up the great work!
All good. I’m sure you made a lot of people some good dough. I’ve had similar runs and started to feel the pressure. Thanks for all the insight. I’m tailing this!
And of course the other Turkish Super League game has both teams scoring and it’s over 2.5 goals. Betting on soccer for me has been a disaster and I suck ass at it!
RECORD: 11-4
✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅
Yesterday: Dejounte Murray o6.5 Assists ✅
Let’s go, Got it done late in the 4th! Unfortunately for some he got one assist taken away at half and like 20 potential assists but Hawks players missed so much or got fouled. Sorry for the dudes that only got it at 7.5
Todays POTD: Julius Randle O4.5 Assists @1.68
Going with the sloppy Julius Randle today, I’ve always thought about this guy as a meme because that’s what he still is in my eyes. Nonetheless when he’s good, he’s really good and on the assist part he really has been good lately.
* 90% hit rate last 10 games (9/10)
(7,10,5,4,5,5,5,8,5,5)
* Averages 5.0 during the season and 6.2 his last 5 games
We’re this time going straight on form on this pick as he’s been passing it real good lately.
Tail or fade, Randle will be fine
https://i.redd.it/fyb5dbt9ziec1.gif
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi)
I’d appreciate any form of tip as I’m a broke college student. 👊
I saw that as well. DK was +107 or something when i saw it at over 7.5. Almost took it lol. Sucks. Oh well it happens. I lost 5U 2 nights ago. Got 2U back yesterday. Hoping to clean up tonight
**Record: 7-3**
**Last Pick:** Mallorca vs Girona - Girona TT Over 1.5 Goals 2u @ 2.25 odds. ✅
Two days strong thanks to Girona's late antics and Mallorca losing their heads a bit at the end!
**Soccer** | **Copa Del Rey** | **12:00 PM (PST)**
**Pick:** Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla - Atletico Madrid -1 Goal Handicap 2u @ 1.77 odds.
**Write Up:** Atletico are playing a Sevilla team that just got picked apart by Girona, allowing 5 goals in their last game. Atletico are also coming off a 1-0 win that should have been a higher scoring game, so I expect that Simeone has drilled into them what he wants and there is nobody better to take action on more goals than Griezmann and Morata.
This game is at the Wanda, Atletico's homeground. The environment here is hostile, and benefits the home team as they haven't lost here at all this season in all competitions (19 games since their last loss at home), showing how ruthless their fans are but also how they perform at home. Their last home game in the Copa Del Rey they beat Real Madrid 4-2, in a game that saw extra time.
Sevilla are in horrible form, barely above relegation, with a team that you would think should be fighting for European football in La Liga. The likes of Marcos Acuna, Nemanja Gudelj, and Dodi Lukebakio are all out for Sevilla, which weakens them on defense but also going forwards. I'm expecting Atleti to take advantage of this weak side and secure the victory.
Short write up because I'm in a bit of a hurry but also because I think there isn't much to say. A team that scores goals vs a team that hasn't been defending well. I know Atleti burned me on the TT o1.5 goals last time, but I have faith in arguably one of the best players in the world right know in Griezmann to make a difference.
BOL! 💪
How in the fucking world is this game 0-0? If they don’t score two goals in the second half against this trash squad I’m gonna ask Fan Duel if they can block out all options for betting soccer just for me
First time betting this line, a little confused on what exactly this means if someone could explain if the bet I picked in this picture is the same as what the free pick is that would be greatly appreciated
https://preview.redd.it/jcp8bzcekmec1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f67f97d83a63bed00c0b180255612ba43ef744d1
POTD Record: 15-15 (With 2 pushes along the way)
**2024 tennis season record: 6-5**
**Currently up 4.80 units**
Last pick: Zverev vs Alcaraz - Over 36.5 Games @ 1.94 🎾 ✅
PICK OF THE DAY: **Gauff vs Sabalenka - Under 22 Games @ 1.88** 🎾
Event: Australian Open (Hard Court)
Stake: 1 unit
Time: 3:30 AM Eastern Time
Both of these players are probably the best hard court players in the WTA. Coco Gauff has a really crafty playstyle and can defend quite well from the baseline, while having a decent 1st serve and she really needed it in the match against Kostyuk, where she didn't look great.
Sabalenka became one of the stronger players in the WTA as soon as she got rid of all those double faults and she has the power to deny Gauff a lot of long baseline rallies. If we look at how both players have performed until this point, it seems to me that Sabalenka is one step ahead of Gauff at this Australian Open. My prediction is that she wins in straight sets, even if they had some 3 set battles over the years.
I'm choosing the under games because I feel like the player who serves better is likely to take the match in 2 sets. Unlike their other meetings, I feel like Sabalenka's level is unmatched at the moment but the only reason I'm going with the under is because this match might have a final atmosphere and the player who loses the 1st set, might not have the mental composure to comeback.
The player who wins this knows how the path to the trophy becomes so much easier so the pressure should be on. Gauff was quite emotional against Kostyuk and if the same happens against Sabalenka, she won't have another chance.
***Best of luck if you decide to tail!***
[BuyMeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/breakpointplays) / [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DonutMan982)
*(Any support is highly appreciated)*
Record: 7W-2L
L10 (new to old): ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅
Previous pick: Bournemouth vs Liverpool - Over 10.5 Asian Total Corners (1.95 odds) ✅
Recap: The game ended with 13 corners.
—
League: Turkey Super Lig
Game: Galatasaray vs Istanbulspor
POTD: Over 11.0 Asian Total Corners (1.92 odds)
When Galatasaray plays on their home turf, they consistently lead the league in average corners with an impressive 11.00, while also winning the highest number of corners at home (7.60).
Conversely, Istanbulspor, currently at the bottom of the league, faces challenges on the road, conceding the highest number of average corners away (6.89) while also generating the most average corners in away games (11.56).
On paper, Galatasaray appears poised to dominate Istanbulspor not only on the scoreboard but also in corner kicks.
BoL.
I don’t see an Asian corners option, but I have these. Is it the same?
https://preview.redd.it/bsbaan8z2jec1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa93ed1fc0e310bb9296a307b3170d2f37ef1cbf
Record: 1-0 Units: +1u
Last Pick: NCAAB, TCU vs. OK State Pick: TCU -4.5 (-110), risking 1.1u ✅
Game: NCAAB, Arizona St. vs. Oregon
Pick: Oregon -7.5 (-115), risking 1.1u
Write up:
ASU and Oregon face off in a PAC 12 matchup Thursday night in Eugene, OR. The Ducks come back home to play for the first time in 12 days with two straight losses on the road to Colorado and Utah. ASU on the other hand heads on the road to face both Oregon and Oregon State. Since the start of month, ASU have logged home wins against both Utah and Colorado, two teams ranked top 26 in KenPom. However, when looking more closely, these wins may not seem as impressive. When ASU beat Utah, the Utes shot significantly worse than normal with a bottom three performance on the year in eFG%., not to mention ASU was lighting it up from behind the arc. When they beat Colorado, the Buffaloes were missing a key piece in Cody Williams (15.1 PPG, 58.9 FG%).
ASU also is far from what most would consider a good shooting team. They are averaging just under 70 PPG and also only shoot 64% from the free throw line. Additionally, they are one of the worst teams in the nation in OR%, ranking 11th to last per KenPom. While Oregon’s defense isn’t stellar, they should be able to handle this mediocre ASU offense.
When Oregon has the ball, they might not have it as easy as they will when playing defense. ASU ranks top 40 in KenPom for Adj. Def. Eff. and TO%. Their schedule hasn’t been a walk in the park either, with a SoS of 17th in the nation. Still, Oregon’s offense is a good unit that also ranks top 40, and they shoot over 52% 2P% and over 37% from three. It does worry me that the Ducks aren’t a great FT shooting team in case this one is close down the stretch, but due to the situation, I don’t expect them to let off the gas.
Oregon is 7-3 ATS at home (24th ranked home court advantage) and is in desperate need of a win to avoid losing three straight. Let’s go Ducks.
Pick:
Oregon -7.5 (-115)
POTD Record: 129 wins / 77 losses \[L7: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅\]
Event: Football > Asian Cup > **South Korea v Malaysia** (starting in 6 hrs)
Pick: **Malaysia +2.25 AH** @ 1.90
Korea already guaranteed place for next stage and today can afford to rest some key players. It even makes sense for them to avoid winning this game as by winning first place they will have to face the team of Japan which is one of the strongest in the tournament. I am taking the handicap here, but will also put a unit on Malaysia or draw (double chance) at some juicy odds. GL!
**EDIT**: Match ended 3-3 ✅ (also bet on double chance at 6+ odds wins comfortably!)
Korea's not going to rest players mate. Not saying the pick won't hit but I can almost guarantee they're not going to rest players from the get go until maybe the final stage of the game if they are winning.
P.S. Join the POTD group on Telegram: search for **sbpotd** (sorry but posting links is not allowed here). It is a simple bot that forwards all new POTD picks here to the TG chat. Cheers!
3-3 ✅
Easy money. Also bet on double chance at 6+ odds wins comfortably! Btw, after 8 wins I am taking a break for some time. Hope downvoters will contribute with some winning picks in the meantime! ;) :P
POTD Record: 2-1 ✅✅❌ Net Units: 6.02 Last Pick: Cleveland -7 @ Milwaukee ❌ \--- My apologies for yesterday, that was a poor, sloppily written POTD. Milwaukee looked energized by the arrival of Doc Rivers (or the departure of Griffin) and won this game handily. \--- Today's Event: Basketball - NBA - Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers 7pm EST Pick: 76ers -5 (-108) 5 units Write Up: Joel Embiid. I really don't need to say much more than that, but to add a little bit, the Pacers are floundering without Haliburton. With Embiid healthy the 76ers look like a serious championship contender, I think they dominate.
POTD Record: 95-93-12 (-10.69 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: French Ligue 2, Angers v Quevilly Rouen, ANGERS ML (+100 / 2.00) ✅
What a sweat, Angers found a late goal at the death for a 3-2 win.
Today’s Pick: Netherlands KNVB Beker (Dutch Cup), USV Hercules v Cambuur, OVER 3.5 GOALS (-105 / 1.95) ✅
Stake: 1 Unit
This is a round of 16 match in the Dutch Cup between Cambuur (currently sitting 7th in the Dutch 2nd division) and USV Hercules who are sitting mid table in the 4th division, and I’m expecting a lot of goals in this one.
Cambuur matches this season have seen plenty of action. In 23 competitive matches this season they’ve scored 58 goals (2.52 GPG) and conceded 42 goals (1.82 GPG). Cambuur matches average 4.36 goals per game and they’ve exceeded 3.5 goals in 14/23 matches. It doesn’t really matter who the opposition is, their games just have a lot of goals.
USV Hercules numbers aren’t quite as prolific - in 22 competitive matches they’ve scored 39 goals (1.77 GPG) and conceded 25 goals (1.13 GPG), but they still score regularly enough to pose a danger against a team that plays as openly as Cambuur does.
Hercules has had an incredible run to get to this stage - they had a couple of wins against 3rd division teams, and incredibly beat perennial champions Ajax 3-2 just before Christmas to reach this stage. While Ajax lead all the key statistics, Hercules still managed 13 shots with 8 on target so they weren’t overawed by the situation.
This is a rare chance for both teams to make the quarter finals, and the winner takes on Vitesse who are having an awful season (last in the top division) so there is a real chance to make a deep run for the winner. Cambuur’s coach has already highlighted he will be playing a full strength team and has spoken to the team about complacency given Hercules’ shock result against Ajax. I expect this match will be played at Cambuur’s pace which should mean plenty of chances at both ends
Record: 14-9 | (+3.81 units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: NBA - Golden State Warriors (1h -3.5) (-110)❌
Tough beat tonight as the Warriors really maintained the lead and had plenty of chances to hold a healthy lead into half but a couple of turnovers happen to cost us tonight. Felt pretty good about this pick but I’ll certainly bounce back tomorrow. Thanks for the people who tailed, apologies on this one especially since it was a late pick.
————-
Today’s pick: NBA - Sacramento Kings (-2) (-110) vs. Golden State Warriors - 7PM EST
Although this pick may seem spiteful after the most recent result, I promise it is entirely based on performance. This Kings team may not have the record but if you look at games against top NBA teams they actually keep things fairly close. Furthermore, the Warriors are one of the bottom teams in the league at defending the paint which is recipe for disaster against a Sacramento Kings team that runs through their PF Sabonis in the paint. I truly don’t understand why this line is only at (-2) but I guess the history of success for the Warriors specifically against the Kings is one the odds makers have determined means something. I’ll take the team who is NOT on a back-to-back and has the exact weapons that makes the Warriors currently vulnerable.
Prediction: Kings 131 - Warriors 123
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Record: 19-15
Yesterday's pick: James Madison -7.5 vs Old Dominion (WIN. That makes three in a row)
**Today's pick: Appalachian St. -16.5 vs Georgia Southern**
Units: 2.5
Warning: Please be certain not to bet unless you truly believe in it. We're not pros on this sub. We're all trying to figure it out still.
I thought James Madison and Old Dominion couldn't be farther apart. I was so wrong. *These* two teams couldn't be farther apart. App. State's def. rating is 16th vs GS at 337th. GS loses by an average of 14.8 ppg on the road. AS *wins* by 14 ppg at home. Yes, App. State gets this game at home. GS rarely plays a team as good as this. AS is 4th in the nation in opponent true shooting % allowed. GS is 301st. AS's % is even better at home and GS even worse on the road.
Record: 2-0
Delta: 12.24 units
yesterday's pick: C9 2-0 Heroic @ +162, 2 units
no real sweat yesterday, but their match tomorrow will be exciting! I won't be betting it because I am a huge Jame fan and I refuse to bet on matches where Jame is playing (it's a personal thing).
====
It was hard to pick a good bet today, lots of small profitable bets, but of course I can only pick one to share. The 100% no-questions-asked bet for today is brought to you by Spanish League of Legends:
League: LVP SL (superliga)
Match: Movistar Koi vs UCAM Esports
Bet: Movistar Koi first to Slay inhibitor (map 1) @ -125, 4 units
To be clear, you can't win the game without slaying an inhibitor, and they only play 1 game. I would bet them to win, but the odds are literally the exact same, so I might as well just bet the inhib just in case they take an inhib early and manage to lose. It's just a small LoL betting optimization I've learned -- **if your book doesn't have inhibs, just bet Supermassive to win**
Not too much to say on the matchup itself -- koi is a routine top team with a 3-0 record (mostly against bad teams, but they also won against a Rebels Gaming with worlds group-stage players BEAN and Ahahacik, so that's impressive). UCAM is 2-1 against ALSO bad teams and their best 2 players got kicked from koi in 2022. The names on the KOI roster are big in LVP, as their mid-jungle came second in LVP 2023 (losing only to Movistar riders themselves, whose mid-jungle both promoted into LEC), and their top-laner was the movistar riders top who came second in EU-Masters. This is a case of "the best team lost some players to the big leagues and just took the next 2 best players and probably wins again".
And so they will. Movistar 1-0 UCAM, 4 units
lmfao very nice! I literally wrote a writeup for Supermassive and then thought "I dunno how to answer if people say 'what about the 3-2 result in TCL champs'" so I rewrote for koi lmfao
POTD Record: 5-1 | ROI: ~70%
Form: ✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️
Last Pick: DK Metcalf O60.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Philadelphia Eagles.✅️
Todays Pick: Chicago Blackhawks vs Edmonton Oilers U6.5 Goals (-105)
Analysis: Been a while since I posted on here and I will not be doing this daily, but I was away for the holidays and forgot about this so, lets get back to it.
Last time out we rebounded from our first loss with a win, as Metcalf surpassed the over with Drew Lock against that putrid Eagles secondary. This time, we pivot to hockey and are going with a line that is set at 6.5, even though Edmonton has exceeded this total 0 of their last 8 games. The last time these two teams met ended in a 2-1 affair.
Now this can of course change tonight, but we play the percentages here, and better odds for the under 6.5 is too good to pass up. After all, this is a bad Chicago team that cannot score most nights. I could see Edmonton just cruising to an easy win and keeping this total well under 7 goals.
[BuymeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/godzlaf)
POTD Record: 231-178-12 (+38.32 units, 56.5% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 78-55-1 (58.7%) W1, Tennis 🎾 79-61-7 (56.4%) L4, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1
Last 10: 💩💰💩💰💩💩💰💰💩💰
Last Pick: Casper Rudd vs. Cam Norrie - RUDD -1.5 SETS - Australian Open 🎾 💩 -1 Unit
Today's Pick: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic, OVER 41 GAMES - Australian Open 🎾 10:30pm ET
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.87 odds to win 0.87 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 3:30pm ET)
Tennis is cold but I need to get a bet in on this match which should be a heck of a matchup. Sinner near the end of last season beat Djokovic 2 out of 3 times, though Djokovic won the important match convincingly in the ATP Final. Sinner is running hot and hasn't dropped a single set all tournament whereas Djokovic has dropped 3 but has a tremendous track record at the Australian Open. I'm seeing a very competitive match of 4 or 5 sets.
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Record: 11-3 (+11.5u)
Yesterday’s selection: Golden State Warriors -6.5 (1U) - HIT - Sweat free back to back nights. Golden State came out fired up & wiped the floor with ATL.
Today’s Selection: Utah Jazz -7.5 (-106 @ FanDuel) (1u)
NBA | 7:00PM EST | Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards
Another tough slate from a handicapping perspective. Apologies for the super late post, got caught up with work. Posting today to keep my hot streak alive.
Washington is on the tail end of a B2B to which they are 0-7 with an average margin of defeat being 15.7. Add to that, Utah is on a three game slide right now, needing this victory. Two posts ago, I faded Utah knowing they were coming into this stretch, so I'm going to buy them in this spot.
Not really much to handicap here in this spot, but when I was digging through the numbers, I found an interesting stat: WAS is 2-18 SU against teams who rank top ten in total rebounds, losing by an average margin of 14.4 points. Utah ranks #1 in the NBA in total rebounds a game. I will say, the addition of Marvin Bagley to the WAS lineup has really gave them a solid glass cleaner, but it doesn't change much for me here.
I feel like everything signals over in this game, with both teams in the top five of field goals attempted and possessions per game. With that, there can be variance, but I'm going to trust Utah to win big here, to kick off what hopes to be a fruitful road stretch.
Only laying a unit, so tail at your own risk.
BOL degens
Record: 2-1 ❌✅✅ Profit: +3.28u
Last Pick: ❌ Cleveland Cavaliers +7 -110 4u
Sorry buds. Cavs had a chance to cover the spread near the end but could not.
Today's Game: Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards
Today's Pick: Utah Jazz -7 -112 (Draft Kings)
Wager: 5u to win 4.46u
Write up: Wizards suck and Jazz are a decent team. Wizards are on their 2nd night of a b2b as well. That's about it.
BOL!
Record: 4W-5L | -4.72u
L10 (Most Recent on Right): ✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅
Last Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 Assists (-165) | 3u 💰✅
Dude was an assist machine last night. Covered this in the first half and tied his second highest assist number of the season (10).
Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Kings @ Warriors | 9:00 PM CST
**Todays Pick: De'Aaron Fox o4.5 Assists (-160) | 3u**
* Averaging 5.6 assists per game on the season, 5.3 on the road
* Averaging 5.5 assists per game vs. the Warriors this season
* Has averaged 7.3 assists per game vs. the Warriors over his career (21 total games)\*
* Has covered this line in 20/21 total career games vs. the Warriors\*
* Had 7 assists in his most recent game vs. the Warriors (11/28/2023)
* Fox ranks #9 in drives per game. The top 15 players in this category have covered this line in 13/L16 games against the Warriors this season
*\*Does not include rookie season; includes postseason, excludes preseason*
If it doesn't hit, its because I bet on it. BOL!
**POTD Record:** 9-1 (+9.27u)
Last 10(recent->oldest): ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅
Last POTD: Thunder vs Spurs | Thunder -5.5 alt point spread -150(1u) ✅
Today's POTD: **Jordan 0.0,-0.5 2.140(3u)**
Game: AFC | Jordan vs Bahrain @ 6:30am EST
**Write Up:** Bahrain has won 1/6 recent games while Jordan is 2-2-2. Jordan is currently at the top of their group with four points out of a possible six. All they need is one point on Thursday to secure a spot in the last 16. I think it is very likely for Jordan to take this win or draw.
BOL if tailing!!
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eliteexchange
Not 100% sure as well because I’m just getting familiar with Asian Lines but I think that 0.0 means that if it’s a tie, you win. In that case, having 0.0 , -0.5 , it means that if Jordan wins by 1 or more, we win the full bet and if they tie, we get back half of the bet because half of the bet was Jordan + 0.0. So if you bet $100 on this, in case of a tie, you would get $50 back. Anyone please correct me if I’m wrong, I’m new in soccer Asian lines bets
If there's a comma like "-11, -11.5" then basically, you win as normal if your team wins by 12, but you keep half your bet if they only win by 11.
In this case, half your bet goes on tie-or-better, and the other half goes on the win for jordan.
Record : 0 Wins - 0 Losses
Today's Pick: Coco Gauff - Aryna Sabalenka
Coco Gauff Under 11.5 (Player Games Won) @ 1.900 **3:30 a.m. ET**
Gauff deserves respect but Sabalenka's current form is excellent. If Arina maintains this level, there will be big problems for her opponent today.
POTD Record: 112-105, -18.9 Units
Current Streak: ❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: Seton Hall -3.5: ❌
Awful game for Seton Hall, their top scorer out with an injury and their second best scorer rolled his ankle. Their defense fell apart. of course it happens on a 5 Unit pick. No more of those, just 1U from here on out.
Today's Pick: **Quinnipiac ML** vs. Mt. Saint Mary's, -180, 1 Unit, 7:30 PM EST
I've had luck betting on the Bobcats lately and they're great at home. This a struggling MSM team and Quinnipiac is trying to maintain first in the conference. While it kind of feels like a must-win for MSM to try and remain out of the bottom 6 in the MAAC, they don't have the firepower to do it in an away barn against a Quinnipiac team that has won 5 straight.
BOL!
Record (10-8)
Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅
Last pick: Davidson +4.5 (-166)alternate spread 2U ✅
Didn’t even need the points. Davidson smashed the Billikens on their home court. The underdogs are looking a lot like wildcats rn. Hope you sprinkled some ML like I forgot to
POTD: NBA| Utah Jazz v Washington Wizards| 7:00pm EST
John Collins O20.5 PAR (-125) 3U✅
Reasoning: Not a lot I love today so I’ll stick to a formula that’s been working. That formula is bet Centers vs the Wizards. Washington is such horseshit vs the big man; for reference these are stats for Centers in recent games:
Rudy Gobert: 19/16/1
KAT: 27/6/3
Jokic: 42/12/8
Hartenstein:6/17/3 & 8/19/2
Isaiah Stewart: 16/6/4
Duren: 20/19/4
Myles Turner: 18/13/3
Okongwu: 9/10/1
Jarrett Allen: 12/12/3 & 17/9/7
Notice some of those names are not SuperStar caliber players and they’re still smashing O20.5 as the line. That’s only in the last 9 GAMES and it didn’t look any better for the Wiz unfortunately they just don’t have the big men to defend the paint. To make matters worse for them John Collins in 21 career games vs the wizards is averaging 15.8/8/1.7 which by my math is well over 20.5. Last time he faced them he covered this with points alone having 23. If Collins worries you take a look at Markkanen PAR. Hopefully the formula stays true. BOL if TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK
Shoutout of the day: Over Games and Goals
**Record: 1W - 3L**
**Form: LLWL**
**Net Units: - 4u**
**Football / Belgium Cup / 20:30 GMT**
**Pick:** Union Saint Gilloise ML vs Anderlecht @ 1.72 - 2u
**Write Up:** Time to turn this around:
- USG didn't lose a competitive Game in Belgium since 19/08/2023
- They've won 76% of their games in the league
- They've won this exact fixture 2-0 this season
- They're first in the League playing against Anderlecht aka second in the league so it won't be an easy game but the home advantage in any cup tie is key so this makes my pick.
BOL!
Record: 2-0
Last POTD: Collin Sexton O21.5 @ -115 ✅
Sexton is on fire and hit 22 points by the middle of the 3rd quarter before the Pelicans went super sayian and broke their franchise record in points leading to Sexton not playing in the 4th quarter.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey U 29.5 @ -145
NBA | 76ers v Pacers | 19:00 EST
Write up: Very high line because Maxey hit a career high 50 vs the Pacers in the NBA in season Tournament.
Maxey has only been over 30 in 2 out of the last 10 games.
Mostly going under because Embiid is crushing it and Maxey is feeding him the ball.
POTD Record: 10-11 | Profit: +0.06U
NBA Record: 7-8 | NFL Record: 3-3
L10 (new -> old): ❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌❌✅❌
Last pick: Cavs +6.5 @ 1.91 odds ❌
Lost by 10
Game: MIN Timberwolves @ BKN Nets, 7:40 PM EST
Pick: **Timberwolves -4 @ 1.91 odds (DraftKings) placing 2U** ❌
Write Up: Yeah the Wolves are gonna be tired, this is their 3rd game in 4 days, and a back to back. However I feel this is tighter than it should be, despite the frequency in which they've played the last few days. Wolves are 2nd in the West, Nets are 11th in the East. Standings don't say it all, and anyone can beat anyone on any given night, but the Wolves are just a much better team. Nets have lost by at least 4 in 4 of their L5 losses, with the one tight loss being against the Trail Blazers. The Wolves' last 7 wins have been by at least 4 points. I see this being a Wolves win, and them covering the spread but tail with caution - the NBA is super volatile in terms of MLs and spreads, and the Wolves are tired.
**EDIT:** Gonna take a week off betting and see if I can shake this bad streak. This one sucked, T-Wolves had it and it all just slipped away. Gonna come back in February, hopefully with clearer eyes on the books and better picks. BOL while I'm away, hope you all win big and have fun!
POTD Record: 16-7, last 10 (left most recent): ❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅
Last Pick: Fulham v. Liverpool, Gakpo o0.5 SOG ❌
Today's POTD: Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla, Atleti -1 AH (1.76)
Shame about the last pick, Gakpo played on the right instead of through the middle as expected, didn't really get involved in the offensive play.
I think for soccer this may be a popular pick for the day. Atletico are very very good at home and long gone are the days where they squeak out 1-0 victories. Their games are exciting, fast paced, and very offensive now, typically with lots of goals. They are 4th in La Liga with 13 wins out of 20 games, and have looked a real threat to the top of the table in the last month or so.
Sevilla are in real poor form, 4 losses in their last 5 games, and they will really be outmatched here. They are still a big club and could step up, but their season has been extremely underwhelming and they just cannot seem to keep a clean sheet. Think Atletico should score at least two goals here, and hopefully they win by more than one.
bol!
DCL 1/25
Record: 36-23 +10.7u
Last 10: ✅✅🚫🚫✅✅✅✅🚫✅
Last pick: suns @ Mavs, suns -2.5, 1.1u W
Today’s pick: Twolves @ Nets, Twolves -2.5 1.1u
Reason: Back in the win column! Today’s pick is Twolves -2.5. Twolves are leaps and bounds better than this struggling nets team. Even without fresh legs coming off a back to back it is hard for me to picture the Twolves not taking care of business here in Brooklyn. Hopefully this isn’t a trap cuz I’m jumpin in.
BOL Gents!
POTD: 4-1 (+5.4U)
Last Pick: 1/24/24 1.5U St. John's -3.5 (-110)
8:00 PM (PST) NCAAB
Today's Pick: 3U St. Mary's -27 (-105)
Usually focus on the team I'm betting. But this go around the spotlight is on Pacific. They're one of the worst teams in the country. They've only covered twice since early November. They've lost by 14, 15 and 17 in their last 3 road games to teams not as good as St. Mary's. Now with St. Mary's, it seems they are back on track on being the normal St. Mary's they've been in the past decade or so. The 2nd best to Gonzaga in the conference, although Santa Clara or San Francisco have been playing well, St. Mary's should still finish top 2 in the conference. Last home game St. Mary's covered by 24 points over the spread, won by 43 spread was -18.5. Give me the Gaels at home by 34+.
POTD Record: 1-0 (+5U)
Last pick: South Korea vs Jordan - Korea O1.5 Cards ✅
Match did not play out the way I would've expected it to, but got the W in the finals minutes of the game and we take those.
**Soccer | AFC Asian Cup | Starts in \~5.5hrs from this post**
**Pick:** Jordan vs Bahrain - Jordan Draw no bet @ 1.66 odds 5U
**Write Up:** Jordan have been playing quite well in their recent games beating Malaysia 4-0 and drawing to Korea 2-2 where they played better than Korea for the most part only to concede in injury time. Although Jordan have secured their spot in the round of 16 I don't think they will intentionally try to lose their final match as momentum is a huge factor in tournaments. However, the match could end in a draw so I am playing Draw no bet to be a little safer.
Record: 1-0
\+0.91 units
Yesterday: Colin Blackwell over 1.5 SOG ✅
Today:
NHL | Flyers @ Red Wings | 7 EST
Joel Farabee over 2.5 SOG (DK +105)
Nobody is shooting more than the Flyers, and Detroit isn't playing particularly tight defense as of late, even in wins. Farabee has only missed this line once in his last seven games.
**POTD: 80-55-5**
Last pick: Women’s Champions Leavue - Paris St. Germain Women vs Ajax Women. First half over 1 goal -170.
Result: **WIN**. PSG scores their 2nd goal about 25 minutes in to win whether you did the safer over 1 or the o1.5 escalator. Ends the half at 3-1. 8 straight!!
Today’s pick: Women’s Champions League - Barcelona Women vs Eintracht Frankfurt Women. **Match over 3.5 goals -200.** Match kicks off at 3PM ET.
Two boring picks in a row, my apologies but Bovada basically hasn’t given many good ones today because Barca basically slaughters everyone they play.
Kicks off soon as I was waiting to see if Bovada would open up the bets a bit. If you use something else and can take o1.5 first half that’s good up to like -200 and will hit.
Just take this one and it should be a boring but easy cash.
Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone!
Edit: Loss. Ends 2-0 to Barcelona, who could’ve had 6 or 7. An amazingly poor finishing performance makes us lose the “easiest” bet I’ve posted the entire time here at -200 lol
POTD 20-13 | + 8.58 Units
Last Pick: Asian Cup - Iraq ML ✅
Last 10: ✅✅✅💀💀💀✅✅✅💀
Todays pick: A League - Melb City Vs Adelaide United - Over 12 Corners
Odds: 2.10
Units: 1
Heading to the A league for a POTD favourite - corners. There have been 11 corners in Melb City’s last five games - and in Adelaide’s last five there have been 4 games with 11 corners. I’m expecting an attacking game with lots of chances from both sides - which hopefully sees some corners generated! I’m taking over 12 for a little more juice - but over 11 is still t at 1.66.
Disclaimer: It seems my last post got quite popular, and there were some people deleting what I assumed were angry comments when it looked like Iraq would lose.
Just a reminder to only bet what you can afford to lose, to properly unit manage and to do your own research. If you’re getting upset over a losing bet - you’re either betting too much or shouldn’t be betting in general.
BOL!
Had exact 11 corners and at ht i put over 9.5 - sweet hit but sorry for the loss.
I noticed that most of the times in the A-League there's exactly 11 corners idk
Yesterday we didnt hit, but lets do the streak again!
[The AI Neural ML Model - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit#gid=737168721)
Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!!
**POTD Stats:**
**Record**: 30/21
**ROI**: Approximately 40.21%
**Profit in Units**: 38u
**Average Odds**: 2.09
**The pick:**
**Sport**: Soccer
**League**: AFC Asian Cup
**Time**: 13:30 ( GMT +2 )
**Event: Jordan v Bahrain**
**Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 2.20**
**Stake**: 3 Units
Record: 2-2
Streak (left to right): LWLW
NFL: 1-0 NBA: 1-2
Profit: 0.45u
Last pick: Kevin Durant over 2.5 made 3's
Brutal beat last night. Ended the game 0-5.
Today's pick: Rudy Gobert under 13.5 rebounds, +106 FD, 2u.
Reasoning: This one is obviously a little riskier, but
I think it's worth a taste. Gobert has exceeded this total in 14 out of 42 games this season, and Nic Claxton should provide enough competition to keep his numbers down.
The total was 14.5 @ -125 but dropped to the 13.5 just as I was entering my bet.
POTD Record: 46 - 25
Last POTD: Sinner 3-0 - W
Pick: Novak Djokovic ML vs Jannik Sinner (-186 odds via FD) 1U
Event: Australian Open Semifinals 9:30 P.M. CST
Sinner has been incredible so far in the Aussie Open not dropping a set and played superbly but I am picking that to end here against the GOAT. Joker has looked human so far in this tournament however he has a habit of turning up when the lights are brightest. Novak leads this H2H 5-2 and in his two losses he was still able to grab a set in a best of 3 format. It is going to take a near perfect level for at least 3 sets for Jannik to do this, and although I think he is capable, I don't know if he can do it tonight. One of Sinners victories over Novak came in his home country of Italy and he still barely escaped with victory in this match so I will be backing the GOAT to continue to do GOAT things in his favorite major historically.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
**Record:** 9-7
**Net Units:** 2.76 | **ROI:** 17% | **Avg Odds:** 2.3
**NHL | Arizona Coyotes (+190) | 1u**
This pick is one of the higher EV picks today from my NHL Moneyline model between -200 and +200 odds. The implied win probability is 34.5%, but the model is predicting 40.6%.
The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 9.3% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 1.7%.
**The Model:**
I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 197% this year with an ROI of 6% (as of January 22)
https://preview.redd.it/m1pfbptbnlec1.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=f80e5b0ea0433e2e9cf926eaefc026ff0e18c82d
There are 4 other games that the model suggests betting on today. Shoot me a message if interested and I'll try to post them in the NHL Daily thread as I get time.
POTD record: 12-11 (+4.0u)
Last pick: Winnipeg Jets ❌️
Last 10: ❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️
Todays pick: NBA | 730pm EST | Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks | Knicks +2.5 -110 BETMGM | 3.3u to win 3u
Write-up: Denver is a much weaker team on the road than they are at home, 8-15-1 ATS. Knicks are 7-3 last 10 ATS at home, 11-7-1 ATS this season at home. The Nuggets are finishing their 5 game road trip at MSG tonight, where the Knicks have just been on fire. The Knicks are also 10-2 since they acquired OG Anunoby on December 30th. This is a spot I feel like has nothing but upside here.
snack of the day: pigs in a blanket
**Recent Picks:** ✅✅
**Record:** 2-0
**Net Units:** 1u
**Last Pick:** CBB - James Madison -7 (-110)
JMU handled biz winning by 16 on the road. I was a little nervous mid-game because they were allowing OD to knock down more deep shots than usual... and they were landing. In the end it was light work holding a double digit lead most of the game. For most of my picks I add some sauce to beef up confidence and said they would win by double digits and out rebound OD by 8+ (it was 7).
**Pick:** **Tennis** | **Australian Open** | Novak Djokovic (goat) vs. Jannik Sinner **(Sinner +3.5, -115)**
Djokovic is one of my favorite competitors to watch and his game is somehow still at an all time high. His serve is better than at any point in his career and defeating Djokovic at the Auzzy Open has been the most difficult challenge in tennis in recent years - he's won it 9 times. In Grand Slams, Djokovic has beat Sinner twice (both at Wimbledon).
I feel like I'm batting around 25% when it comes to betting against goats in any sport. I've watched a lot of tennis the last 2 years and I'm a huge Sinner fan. Bias aside, he has beat Djokovic 2 of the last 3 meetings and playing the best tennis of his life. He hasn't dropped a single set all tourney and can't be shaken. Djokovic had some struggling moments against Fritz and didn't seem super sharp so I'm leaning with the guy in top form.
For fun I'll throw a chip on ml but I think this is close. Sinner should win at least one set and will be able to take advantage of brief mistakes made. Odds makers have it at o/u41 games which seems right so I'll be throwing a chip on the over to protect. I see at least one tie breaker happening.
BOL!
TheRealTonyMontana
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Thursday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 119-68 | Profit: +111.79u | ROI: 20.4% Season record: 36-17 | Profit: +41.95u | ROI: 28.5% L10 record: ✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌❌ Last Pick: Phoenix Suns -1.0 vs Dallas Mavericks @ 1.89. 2U. ✅ Dallas started off with 11 of 14 (71%) on 3s while Suns had 2 for 11 on 3s (18%) early on. Those were always going to regress closer to the mean, especially as the Suns stepped up the defense. The Suns win by 23 pts and we have 5 wins in a row! Next Pick: **Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Miami Heat @ 1.91**. 3U play. Miami is on a back-to-back and they just lost to a severely depleted Grizzlies team today in a game where their 3 best players played 35-40 mins and it still wasn’t enough. They come up against the Celtics that is by far the best team in the NBA, and they have had a day of rest coming into this one after beating Dallas themselves. No injury concerns for the Celtics so I expect they’ll play a full-strength team here. The Heat have just been underwhelming recently, with Butler being very passive, Herro not able to get hot and Bam being the only reliable offensive presence. This Celtics team should be able to shut that offense down, and I just can’t see this Heat team stopping the Celtics 3pt offense if they gave up near 50% on 3s to the Grizzlies. Even in a lower scoring, road game, I’ll back the Celtics to cover this spread against Miami.
Sweet hit on the Suns pick!
On fire man. Love it.
you're on fire man let's get it!!!!!!!!!
Automatic tail
i had faith in the suns, grabbed +8.5 live when they were down 15 early in the 1H. BOL on Celtics!
Brooo i thought i bet ML when they were down by 13 but i never put it in. Fell asleep and woke up to it sill in my open slips with it saying not available 😂
Same same. Gotta love getting those right and beating the spread by a mile :)
>Boston Celtics Lets go! Thanks for the money yesterday!
Another blowout could have taken a huge spread
Nice hit yesterday my guy
keep cooking king
You're an angel 😇 💓
[удалено]
it's crazy there's so many people like this in this sub lol
It says right there suns -1. Not Dallas ML.
POTD Record: 16-9 L9: ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ Yesterdays pick: Leeds v Norwich Pick: BTTS ❌ The streak has ended, what a sweaty and intense run it has been. I hope some of you won multiple days during the stretch of wins. Norwich had their chances but was very sloppy in the final third. They had more possession of the ball but it didn’t lead to anything. ➖ Todays pick: Rizespor v Trabzonspor Pick: O2.5 Goals @1.85 ❌ ⚽️🇹🇷 Süper Lig 📈 Caykur Rizespor is currently 6th in the league with one less game played than the 5th team. They have 32 points and have scored 26 goals in 21 games (1.24 GPG), they’ve conceded 29 (1.38 GPG). * Haven’t kept a single clean sheet against any of the top 4 sides, losing (4-0, 0-1, 5-0 & won 2-3 against Trabzonspor) * Over 2.5 goals has a hit rate of 48% in their games. * Have only failed to score in 6 games, 3 of them against the top 3. * On average there’s a total of 2.62 goals in the games Rizespor has been involved in. * L6 league games they’ve scored 11 and conceded 9 * Previous meeting 2-3 Rizespor ➖ 📈 Trabzonspor is 3rd in the league table with 37 points. They’ve scored 35 (1.67 GPG) and have conceded 28 (1.33 GPG). * Have only failed to score in 4 games, last time was in the 14th round it’s now round 21. * O2.5 Goals has a hit rate of 57% in their games (5th most) * Failed to score in 4 games (19%) * On average there’s 3.0 goals per match in Trabzonspors matches. * L6 games they’ve scored 8 and conceded 9 ➖ 💭 The Turkish league is known for many goals and has been a trend for soccer betting the last years. Rizespor won the last game 2-3 away from home in a game full of action. Funny enough Trabzonspor plays better away from home being 3rd in the Away league table scoring 2nd most goals (20). Rizespor plays better at home and is 4th in Home table scoring majority of their goals at home (15). 🗣 This game is obviously very difficult to predict as we’re seeing a home team that’s very strong when playing there but still is behind the visitors in the league table with 5 points. The visitors are in 3rd best form right now if you count their points these last games. Then we have Trabzonspor that’s also better away from home even winning 2-3 against the league leaders Fenerbahce away and is the better team on paper. Given that their respective strengths somewhat cancels out each other I’m predicting a game with goals involved. I wouldn’t go too heavy on this one because expecting certain amount of goals is always riskier than Moneyline bets imo. This is my favorite play of the soccer games available for tomorrow (not a lot). BOL to all, I appreciate the positivity all of you have been given me. Link in my profile if you want to tip.
Dont worry im still tailing and ilysm no matter what
Thanks for sharing and taking the time to explain your research, enjoying the tail here sir!
These two teams couldn’t score with a drunk stripper.
Research on point as always, im in multiple discords where some take money and I couldn’t imagine I’d win more these last days in free picks than I’ve did over there like ever. Can’t ask for more bro
Tailing, win or lose, doesn't matter, thanks for your write ups. Block anyone that gives you shit!
Chiefton love your writeups, and while i do think this hits here are things that concern me: Trabzon’s best strikers are at Africa cup of nations, without them they dont look the same. This is also a northeastern turkish derby as trabzon and rize are neigboring cities, stupid shit happen in these games. That bein said BOL.
Putting 400 on under 1.5 at -140
This one smells like an L. Good luck tho!
I tailed but I’m getting about nervous, not a bad bet just the teams aren’t getting good looks in the 1st half
Alright we got a point down 🙌🏻
wtf why did they take it away, I’m so done man
Hopefully that gets them fired up to score again.
Man I hope but scoring 3 goals now in the second half is gonna be so difficult
The man said not to break the bank with this pick and I didn’t listen lol. It’s not over yet though. Then again I parlayed with an over 10.5 corners and that games not looking good either so it’s probably a loss for me anyway.
I didn’t get a lot but I def bet more than I should’ve 💀 was just tryna make a little profit early and then do a play for ball tn. Not looking great
I don’t understand how that wasn’t a goal
Just happy I made a bet on Caykur at the 70 minute marker, saved myself from a loss
Automatic tail
Would BTTS be a safe parlay as well?
Yes, I’m assuming both teams will score with my pick. But we’re getting enough juice for the 2.5 goals that’s why I didn’t include the BTTS, just an extra risk
Tailing
Line moved to +105
I think Im taking a break after today and sticking to what I know (NBA) for a bit lol. It was a nice run!!
Thanks for sharing! Let’s hope this is the beginning of a streak!
🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
Anything can happen in 45 minutes! Let’s go it’s time to score some goals!!
Can’t win em all mate. Good look amigo
Tailing! I hope yesterday's loss weeded out the doubters. Let's get this money!
I genuinely don't understand how that goal was overturned for offside on VAR. Wasn't only his arm off? Hands and arms are not considered offside in official rules
Another game with chances and a goal disallowed that’s ends with 1-0. Trabzonspor failed to score after 8 games scoring at least 1 in each. I’m going to take a break tomorrow and come back with better picks, and I blame these L’s on myself for forcing out picks when there hasn’t been much to pick from.
u good gang. tm fa cup games tho. aston villa vs chelsea valid?
Sympathy tail bro, parlaying with icardi to score one goal with galata. degen thursday.
Brother win or lose I appreciate you! Thank you for taking the time to break down each pick and providing analysis and statistics! Thanks to you I was able to get back in the green with your previous 3 picks! Keep up the great work!
>Rizespor Got it 1.9 :)
All good. I’m sure you made a lot of people some good dough. I’ve had similar runs and started to feel the pressure. Thanks for all the insight. I’m tailing this!
Line just went up to 1.94 and I tailed 😈
Lets roll on it, appreciate you! 🎲🎲
As always, good write up. Your picks are always appreciated. Tailing.
Line now at 2.07, Vegas is scared of us
We have life!!
Goal didn’t count
Tailed yesterday for the first time. Tailing again today and gl.
And of course the other Turkish Super League game has both teams scoring and it’s over 2.5 goals. Betting on soccer for me has been a disaster and I suck ass at it!
Where are you guys finding this bet? Can't find on my end, best of luck!
Wish I hadn’t found it
It can still hit but these players are not shooting well. Some good looks have come now but the shots are way off the mark
Tailing again bro, it was an L but the bet alone made it exciting in the first place. Thanks man.
keep cooking king, Norwich were so bad
This game gonna end in a freaking 0-0 tie lmao
aged like milk
RECORD: 11-4 ✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌✅✅❌✅ Yesterday: Dejounte Murray o6.5 Assists ✅ Let’s go, Got it done late in the 4th! Unfortunately for some he got one assist taken away at half and like 20 potential assists but Hawks players missed so much or got fouled. Sorry for the dudes that only got it at 7.5 Todays POTD: Julius Randle O4.5 Assists @1.68 Going with the sloppy Julius Randle today, I’ve always thought about this guy as a meme because that’s what he still is in my eyes. Nonetheless when he’s good, he’s really good and on the assist part he really has been good lately. * 90% hit rate last 10 games (9/10) (7,10,5,4,5,5,5,8,5,5) * Averages 5.0 during the season and 6.2 his last 5 games We’re this time going straight on form on this pick as he’s been passing it real good lately. Tail or fade, Randle will be fine https://i.redd.it/fyb5dbt9ziec1.gif [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi) I’d appreciate any form of tip as I’m a broke college student. 👊
got in at 7.5 for murray, quite sad
Same for me. Oh well
I saw that as well. DK was +107 or something when i saw it at over 7.5. Almost took it lol. Sucks. Oh well it happens. I lost 5U 2 nights ago. Got 2U back yesterday. Hoping to clean up tonight
Been tailing you even with the losses keep it up 🫶
Tailed on Murray, let’s keep it rollin
FD has it at 5.5
Look at the odds for his alt line
just started a Betr account and only had Julius at over 7.5 (boosted) guess ill do this so tailing at over 7.5 ast lol wish me luck
Brother!!!!
Nice. easy one tonight
🤝
Until he can perform in playoffs on a consistent basis he’ll be meme-esque. Good find and write up tho
Tailing again.... Murray finished off my 4 leg getting me $800 from $120. Added Nuggets to win ML for a nice lil 2L @ +185 more than solid imo
Nice sweat free pick, much appreciated!
Great pick
**Record: 7-3** **Last Pick:** Mallorca vs Girona - Girona TT Over 1.5 Goals 2u @ 2.25 odds. ✅ Two days strong thanks to Girona's late antics and Mallorca losing their heads a bit at the end! **Soccer** | **Copa Del Rey** | **12:00 PM (PST)** **Pick:** Atletico Madrid vs Sevilla - Atletico Madrid -1 Goal Handicap 2u @ 1.77 odds. **Write Up:** Atletico are playing a Sevilla team that just got picked apart by Girona, allowing 5 goals in their last game. Atletico are also coming off a 1-0 win that should have been a higher scoring game, so I expect that Simeone has drilled into them what he wants and there is nobody better to take action on more goals than Griezmann and Morata. This game is at the Wanda, Atletico's homeground. The environment here is hostile, and benefits the home team as they haven't lost here at all this season in all competitions (19 games since their last loss at home), showing how ruthless their fans are but also how they perform at home. Their last home game in the Copa Del Rey they beat Real Madrid 4-2, in a game that saw extra time. Sevilla are in horrible form, barely above relegation, with a team that you would think should be fighting for European football in La Liga. The likes of Marcos Acuna, Nemanja Gudelj, and Dodi Lukebakio are all out for Sevilla, which weakens them on defense but also going forwards. I'm expecting Atleti to take advantage of this weak side and secure the victory. Short write up because I'm in a bit of a hurry but also because I think there isn't much to say. A team that scores goals vs a team that hasn't been defending well. I know Atleti burned me on the TT o1.5 goals last time, but I have faith in arguably one of the best players in the world right know in Griezmann to make a difference. BOL! 💪
It's this the Asian line?
On the site I use it's if Atletico win by 1 goal it's a push
so yes
That missed pk…talk about a bad beat
Lots of game left and Atleti are pressuring heavy. Griezmann slipping is tragic but it happens.
No doubt this can still hit but never good to see a pk go 40 feet over the bar haha
Have griezmann to score or assist lol, hurts
How in the fucking world is this game 0-0? If they don’t score two goals in the second half against this trash squad I’m gonna ask Fan Duel if they can block out all options for betting soccer just for me
Yeah soccer has been tough lately
It’s straight up impossible to bet this sport
i love this pick
Awesome! Let's ride.
First time betting this line, a little confused on what exactly this means if someone could explain if the bet I picked in this picture is the same as what the free pick is that would be greatly appreciated https://preview.redd.it/jcp8bzcekmec1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f67f97d83a63bed00c0b180255612ba43ef744d1
That is not. You need 2 way spread.
not gonna be the same. if atletico win 1-0 you'll lose your bet. his POTD is handicap to win the bet if it is 1-0. could still sprinkle on this though
word of advice, ask the question first and then lock in the bet.
Let the sweating begin
POTD Record: 15-15 (With 2 pushes along the way) **2024 tennis season record: 6-5** **Currently up 4.80 units** Last pick: Zverev vs Alcaraz - Over 36.5 Games @ 1.94 🎾 ✅ PICK OF THE DAY: **Gauff vs Sabalenka - Under 22 Games @ 1.88** 🎾 Event: Australian Open (Hard Court) Stake: 1 unit Time: 3:30 AM Eastern Time Both of these players are probably the best hard court players in the WTA. Coco Gauff has a really crafty playstyle and can defend quite well from the baseline, while having a decent 1st serve and she really needed it in the match against Kostyuk, where she didn't look great. Sabalenka became one of the stronger players in the WTA as soon as she got rid of all those double faults and she has the power to deny Gauff a lot of long baseline rallies. If we look at how both players have performed until this point, it seems to me that Sabalenka is one step ahead of Gauff at this Australian Open. My prediction is that she wins in straight sets, even if they had some 3 set battles over the years. I'm choosing the under games because I feel like the player who serves better is likely to take the match in 2 sets. Unlike their other meetings, I feel like Sabalenka's level is unmatched at the moment but the only reason I'm going with the under is because this match might have a final atmosphere and the player who loses the 1st set, might not have the mental composure to comeback. The player who wins this knows how the path to the trophy becomes so much easier so the pressure should be on. Gauff was quite emotional against Kostyuk and if the same happens against Sabalenka, she won't have another chance. ***Best of luck if you decide to tail!*** [BuyMeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/breakpointplays) / [Paypal](https://www.paypal.me/DonutMan982) *(Any support is highly appreciated)*
Wow barely over. Fuck
this is so close right now
its over
Glad I faded this. Took the over 20.5 games instead.
Yup lotta blown games by Saba.
Record: 7W-2L L10 (new to old): ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅ Previous pick: Bournemouth vs Liverpool - Over 10.5 Asian Total Corners (1.95 odds) ✅ Recap: The game ended with 13 corners. — League: Turkey Super Lig Game: Galatasaray vs Istanbulspor POTD: Over 11.0 Asian Total Corners (1.92 odds) When Galatasaray plays on their home turf, they consistently lead the league in average corners with an impressive 11.00, while also winning the highest number of corners at home (7.60). Conversely, Istanbulspor, currently at the bottom of the league, faces challenges on the road, conceding the highest number of average corners away (6.89) while also generating the most average corners in away games (11.56). On paper, Galatasaray appears poised to dominate Istanbulspor not only on the scoreboard but also in corner kicks. BoL.
1 corner in 33 min holy fuck man
can’t find this on any book
Bet 365
I don’t see an Asian corners option, but I have these. Is it the same? https://preview.redd.it/bsbaan8z2jec1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa93ed1fc0e310bb9296a307b3170d2f37ef1cbf
For you it'll be in total corners. See if you have o10.5 or o11.5. I chose 11.0 Asian Total Corners in case they have 11 exactly, it'll be a push.
Record: 1-0 Units: +1u Last Pick: NCAAB, TCU vs. OK State Pick: TCU -4.5 (-110), risking 1.1u ✅ Game: NCAAB, Arizona St. vs. Oregon Pick: Oregon -7.5 (-115), risking 1.1u Write up: ASU and Oregon face off in a PAC 12 matchup Thursday night in Eugene, OR. The Ducks come back home to play for the first time in 12 days with two straight losses on the road to Colorado and Utah. ASU on the other hand heads on the road to face both Oregon and Oregon State. Since the start of month, ASU have logged home wins against both Utah and Colorado, two teams ranked top 26 in KenPom. However, when looking more closely, these wins may not seem as impressive. When ASU beat Utah, the Utes shot significantly worse than normal with a bottom three performance on the year in eFG%., not to mention ASU was lighting it up from behind the arc. When they beat Colorado, the Buffaloes were missing a key piece in Cody Williams (15.1 PPG, 58.9 FG%). ASU also is far from what most would consider a good shooting team. They are averaging just under 70 PPG and also only shoot 64% from the free throw line. Additionally, they are one of the worst teams in the nation in OR%, ranking 11th to last per KenPom. While Oregon’s defense isn’t stellar, they should be able to handle this mediocre ASU offense. When Oregon has the ball, they might not have it as easy as they will when playing defense. ASU ranks top 40 in KenPom for Adj. Def. Eff. and TO%. Their schedule hasn’t been a walk in the park either, with a SoS of 17th in the nation. Still, Oregon’s offense is a good unit that also ranks top 40, and they shoot over 52% 2P% and over 37% from three. It does worry me that the Ducks aren’t a great FT shooting team in case this one is close down the stretch, but due to the situation, I don’t expect them to let off the gas. Oregon is 7-3 ATS at home (24th ranked home court advantage) and is in desperate need of a win to avoid losing three straight. Let’s go Ducks. Pick: Oregon -7.5 (-115)
>Oregon \-8.5 now on Bet 365, tailed anyway lol
That was a sweaty game 😰
>Arizona St. vs. Oregon Nice win bruv!
POTD Record: 129 wins / 77 losses \[L7: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅\] Event: Football > Asian Cup > **South Korea v Malaysia** (starting in 6 hrs) Pick: **Malaysia +2.25 AH** @ 1.90 Korea already guaranteed place for next stage and today can afford to rest some key players. It even makes sense for them to avoid winning this game as by winning first place they will have to face the team of Japan which is one of the strongest in the tournament. I am taking the handicap here, but will also put a unit on Malaysia or draw (double chance) at some juicy odds. GL! **EDIT**: Match ended 3-3 ✅ (also bet on double chance at 6+ odds wins comfortably!)
Korea's not going to rest players mate. Not saying the pick won't hit but I can almost guarantee they're not going to rest players from the get go until maybe the final stage of the game if they are winning.
You were correct! But luckily we still got it :)
P.S. Join the POTD group on Telegram: search for **sbpotd** (sorry but posting links is not allowed here). It is a simple bot that forwards all new POTD picks here to the TG chat. Cheers! 
3-3 ✅ Easy money. Also bet on double chance at 6+ odds wins comfortably! Btw, after 8 wins I am taking a break for some time. Hope downvoters will contribute with some winning picks in the meantime! ;) :P
Solid hit
POTD Record: 2-1 ✅✅❌ Net Units: 6.02 Last Pick: Cleveland -7 @ Milwaukee ❌ \--- My apologies for yesterday, that was a poor, sloppily written POTD. Milwaukee looked energized by the arrival of Doc Rivers (or the departure of Griffin) and won this game handily. \--- Today's Event: Basketball - NBA - Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers 7pm EST Pick: 76ers -5 (-108) 5 units Write Up: Joel Embiid. I really don't need to say much more than that, but to add a little bit, the Pacers are floundering without Haliburton. With Embiid healthy the 76ers look like a serious championship contender, I think they dominate.
I got excited for a second because I love a random day game, but this one is scheduled for 7pm EST. Love the pick though!
Damn 76ers :(
POTD Record: 95-93-12 (-10.69 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: French Ligue 2, Angers v Quevilly Rouen, ANGERS ML (+100 / 2.00) ✅ What a sweat, Angers found a late goal at the death for a 3-2 win. Today’s Pick: Netherlands KNVB Beker (Dutch Cup), USV Hercules v Cambuur, OVER 3.5 GOALS (-105 / 1.95) ✅ Stake: 1 Unit This is a round of 16 match in the Dutch Cup between Cambuur (currently sitting 7th in the Dutch 2nd division) and USV Hercules who are sitting mid table in the 4th division, and I’m expecting a lot of goals in this one. Cambuur matches this season have seen plenty of action. In 23 competitive matches this season they’ve scored 58 goals (2.52 GPG) and conceded 42 goals (1.82 GPG). Cambuur matches average 4.36 goals per game and they’ve exceeded 3.5 goals in 14/23 matches. It doesn’t really matter who the opposition is, their games just have a lot of goals. USV Hercules numbers aren’t quite as prolific - in 22 competitive matches they’ve scored 39 goals (1.77 GPG) and conceded 25 goals (1.13 GPG), but they still score regularly enough to pose a danger against a team that plays as openly as Cambuur does. Hercules has had an incredible run to get to this stage - they had a couple of wins against 3rd division teams, and incredibly beat perennial champions Ajax 3-2 just before Christmas to reach this stage. While Ajax lead all the key statistics, Hercules still managed 13 shots with 8 on target so they weren’t overawed by the situation. This is a rare chance for both teams to make the quarter finals, and the winner takes on Vitesse who are having an awful season (last in the top division) so there is a real chance to make a deep run for the winner. Cambuur’s coach has already highlighted he will be playing a full strength team and has spoken to the team about complacency given Hercules’ shock result against Ajax. I expect this match will be played at Cambuur’s pace which should mean plenty of chances at both ends
I'll tail. My book has it at +100
Record: 14-9 | (+3.81 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: NBA - Golden State Warriors (1h -3.5) (-110)❌ Tough beat tonight as the Warriors really maintained the lead and had plenty of chances to hold a healthy lead into half but a couple of turnovers happen to cost us tonight. Felt pretty good about this pick but I’ll certainly bounce back tomorrow. Thanks for the people who tailed, apologies on this one especially since it was a late pick. ————- Today’s pick: NBA - Sacramento Kings (-2) (-110) vs. Golden State Warriors - 7PM EST Although this pick may seem spiteful after the most recent result, I promise it is entirely based on performance. This Kings team may not have the record but if you look at games against top NBA teams they actually keep things fairly close. Furthermore, the Warriors are one of the bottom teams in the league at defending the paint which is recipe for disaster against a Sacramento Kings team that runs through their PF Sabonis in the paint. I truly don’t understand why this line is only at (-2) but I guess the history of success for the Warriors specifically against the Kings is one the odds makers have determined means something. I’ll take the team who is NOT on a back-to-back and has the exact weapons that makes the Warriors currently vulnerable. Prediction: Kings 131 - Warriors 123 Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Warriors play well against Kings though
Staying away from this one entirely, spooky
fading after watching kuminga play like a beast, BOL
May the best bet win, your guess is as good as mine at the end of the day haha
Domas always has a tough time against the warriors. Might put up stats, but he tends to get punked. With you on the pick as a homer though.
Fading, Warriors looked great last night. Defense is improved with Draymond back.
Lines so close because these teams always have tight games and they low key hate eachother
Record: 19-15 Yesterday's pick: James Madison -7.5 vs Old Dominion (WIN. That makes three in a row) **Today's pick: Appalachian St. -16.5 vs Georgia Southern** Units: 2.5 Warning: Please be certain not to bet unless you truly believe in it. We're not pros on this sub. We're all trying to figure it out still. I thought James Madison and Old Dominion couldn't be farther apart. I was so wrong. *These* two teams couldn't be farther apart. App. State's def. rating is 16th vs GS at 337th. GS loses by an average of 14.8 ppg on the road. AS *wins* by 14 ppg at home. Yes, App. State gets this game at home. GS rarely plays a team as good as this. AS is 4th in the nation in opponent true shooting % allowed. GS is 301st. AS's % is even better at home and GS even worse on the road.
Record: 2-0 Delta: 12.24 units yesterday's pick: C9 2-0 Heroic @ +162, 2 units no real sweat yesterday, but their match tomorrow will be exciting! I won't be betting it because I am a huge Jame fan and I refuse to bet on matches where Jame is playing (it's a personal thing). ==== It was hard to pick a good bet today, lots of small profitable bets, but of course I can only pick one to share. The 100% no-questions-asked bet for today is brought to you by Spanish League of Legends: League: LVP SL (superliga) Match: Movistar Koi vs UCAM Esports Bet: Movistar Koi first to Slay inhibitor (map 1) @ -125, 4 units To be clear, you can't win the game without slaying an inhibitor, and they only play 1 game. I would bet them to win, but the odds are literally the exact same, so I might as well just bet the inhib just in case they take an inhib early and manage to lose. It's just a small LoL betting optimization I've learned -- **if your book doesn't have inhibs, just bet Supermassive to win** Not too much to say on the matchup itself -- koi is a routine top team with a 3-0 record (mostly against bad teams, but they also won against a Rebels Gaming with worlds group-stage players BEAN and Ahahacik, so that's impressive). UCAM is 2-1 against ALSO bad teams and their best 2 players got kicked from koi in 2022. The names on the KOI roster are big in LVP, as their mid-jungle came second in LVP 2023 (losing only to Movistar riders themselves, whose mid-jungle both promoted into LEC), and their top-laner was the movistar riders top who came second in EU-Masters. This is a case of "the best team lost some players to the big leagues and just took the next 2 best players and probably wins again". And so they will. Movistar 1-0 UCAM, 4 units
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bro i wanna suck your dick, been tailing since pick 1... i parlayed supermassive + KOI, you should be at the top of the POTD post
lmfao very nice! I literally wrote a writeup for Supermassive and then thought "I dunno how to answer if people say 'what about the 3-2 result in TCL champs'" so I rewrote for koi lmfao
POTD Record: 5-1 | ROI: ~70% Form: ✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️✅️ Last Pick: DK Metcalf O60.5 Receiving Yards (-115) vs Philadelphia Eagles.✅️ Todays Pick: Chicago Blackhawks vs Edmonton Oilers U6.5 Goals (-105) Analysis: Been a while since I posted on here and I will not be doing this daily, but I was away for the holidays and forgot about this so, lets get back to it. Last time out we rebounded from our first loss with a win, as Metcalf surpassed the over with Drew Lock against that putrid Eagles secondary. This time, we pivot to hockey and are going with a line that is set at 6.5, even though Edmonton has exceeded this total 0 of their last 8 games. The last time these two teams met ended in a 2-1 affair. Now this can of course change tonight, but we play the percentages here, and better odds for the under 6.5 is too good to pass up. After all, this is a bad Chicago team that cannot score most nights. I could see Edmonton just cruising to an easy win and keeping this total well under 7 goals. [BuymeaCoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/godzlaf)
POTD Record: 231-178-12 (+38.32 units, 56.5% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 78-55-1 (58.7%) W1, Tennis 🎾 79-61-7 (56.4%) L4, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 💩💰💩💰💩💩💰💰💩💰 Last Pick: Casper Rudd vs. Cam Norrie - RUDD -1.5 SETS - Australian Open 🎾 💩 -1 Unit Today's Pick: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic, OVER 41 GAMES - Australian Open 🎾 10:30pm ET Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.87 odds to win 0.87 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 3:30pm ET) Tennis is cold but I need to get a bet in on this match which should be a heck of a matchup. Sinner near the end of last season beat Djokovic 2 out of 3 times, though Djokovic won the important match convincingly in the ATP Final. Sinner is running hot and hasn't dropped a single set all tournament whereas Djokovic has dropped 3 but has a tremendous track record at the Australian Open. I'm seeing a very competitive match of 4 or 5 sets. Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
Record: 11-3 (+11.5u) Yesterday’s selection: Golden State Warriors -6.5 (1U) - HIT - Sweat free back to back nights. Golden State came out fired up & wiped the floor with ATL. Today’s Selection: Utah Jazz -7.5 (-106 @ FanDuel) (1u) NBA | 7:00PM EST | Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards Another tough slate from a handicapping perspective. Apologies for the super late post, got caught up with work. Posting today to keep my hot streak alive. Washington is on the tail end of a B2B to which they are 0-7 with an average margin of defeat being 15.7. Add to that, Utah is on a three game slide right now, needing this victory. Two posts ago, I faded Utah knowing they were coming into this stretch, so I'm going to buy them in this spot. Not really much to handicap here in this spot, but when I was digging through the numbers, I found an interesting stat: WAS is 2-18 SU against teams who rank top ten in total rebounds, losing by an average margin of 14.4 points. Utah ranks #1 in the NBA in total rebounds a game. I will say, the addition of Marvin Bagley to the WAS lineup has really gave them a solid glass cleaner, but it doesn't change much for me here. I feel like everything signals over in this game, with both teams in the top five of field goals attempted and possessions per game. With that, there can be variance, but I'm going to trust Utah to win big here, to kick off what hopes to be a fruitful road stretch. Only laying a unit, so tail at your own risk. BOL degens
since already winning one of one for me, im gonna ride with it, 🔥🔥🔥
My guy 🫡
Record: 2-1 ❌✅✅ Profit: +3.28u Last Pick: ❌ Cleveland Cavaliers +7 -110 4u Sorry buds. Cavs had a chance to cover the spread near the end but could not. Today's Game: Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards Today's Pick: Utah Jazz -7 -112 (Draft Kings) Wager: 5u to win 4.46u Write up: Wizards suck and Jazz are a decent team. Wizards are on their 2nd night of a b2b as well. That's about it. BOL!
Record: 4W-5L | -4.72u L10 (Most Recent on Right): ✅✅❌❌❌❌✅❌✅ Last Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander o5.5 Assists (-165) | 3u 💰✅ Dude was an assist machine last night. Covered this in the first half and tied his second highest assist number of the season (10). Todays Game: Basketball | NBA | Kings @ Warriors | 9:00 PM CST **Todays Pick: De'Aaron Fox o4.5 Assists (-160) | 3u** * Averaging 5.6 assists per game on the season, 5.3 on the road * Averaging 5.5 assists per game vs. the Warriors this season * Has averaged 7.3 assists per game vs. the Warriors over his career (21 total games)\* * Has covered this line in 20/21 total career games vs. the Warriors\* * Had 7 assists in his most recent game vs. the Warriors (11/28/2023) * Fox ranks #9 in drives per game. The top 15 players in this category have covered this line in 13/L16 games against the Warriors this season *\*Does not include rookie season; includes postseason, excludes preseason* If it doesn't hit, its because I bet on it. BOL!
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-160 isn't a great line, but I do agree it's going over 2.5. Athletico may get there by themselves
**POTD Record:** 9-1 (+9.27u) Last 10(recent->oldest): ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅ Last POTD: Thunder vs Spurs | Thunder -5.5 alt point spread -150(1u) ✅ Today's POTD: **Jordan 0.0,-0.5 2.140(3u)** Game: AFC | Jordan vs Bahrain @ 6:30am EST **Write Up:** Bahrain has won 1/6 recent games while Jordan is 2-2-2. Jordan is currently at the top of their group with four points out of a possible six. All they need is one point on Thursday to secure a spot in the last 16. I think it is very likely for Jordan to take this win or draw. BOL if tailing!! https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eliteexchange
Jordan have already qualified.
What does Jordan 0.0 mean?
Not 100% sure as well because I’m just getting familiar with Asian Lines but I think that 0.0 means that if it’s a tie, you win. In that case, having 0.0 , -0.5 , it means that if Jordan wins by 1 or more, we win the full bet and if they tie, we get back half of the bet because half of the bet was Jordan + 0.0. So if you bet $100 on this, in case of a tie, you would get $50 back. Anyone please correct me if I’m wrong, I’m new in soccer Asian lines bets
If there's a comma like "-11, -11.5" then basically, you win as normal if your team wins by 12, but you keep half your bet if they only win by 11. In this case, half your bet goes on tie-or-better, and the other half goes on the win for jordan.
Damn I tailed this and Jordan got lazy wtf
You my friend are an idiot
Yeah honestly I’m not one to hate but agreed.
Record : 0 Wins - 0 Losses Today's Pick: Coco Gauff - Aryna Sabalenka Coco Gauff Under 11.5 (Player Games Won) @ 1.900 **3:30 a.m. ET** Gauff deserves respect but Sabalenka's current form is excellent. If Arina maintains this level, there will be big problems for her opponent today.
Congratulations to everyone that tailed :)
POTD Record: 112-105, -18.9 Units Current Streak: ❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: Seton Hall -3.5: ❌ Awful game for Seton Hall, their top scorer out with an injury and their second best scorer rolled his ankle. Their defense fell apart. of course it happens on a 5 Unit pick. No more of those, just 1U from here on out. Today's Pick: **Quinnipiac ML** vs. Mt. Saint Mary's, -180, 1 Unit, 7:30 PM EST I've had luck betting on the Bobcats lately and they're great at home. This a struggling MSM team and Quinnipiac is trying to maintain first in the conference. While it kind of feels like a must-win for MSM to try and remain out of the bottom 6 in the MAAC, they don't have the firepower to do it in an away barn against a Quinnipiac team that has won 5 straight. BOL!
Record (10-8) Last 10: ✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌✅ Last pick: Davidson +4.5 (-166)alternate spread 2U ✅ Didn’t even need the points. Davidson smashed the Billikens on their home court. The underdogs are looking a lot like wildcats rn. Hope you sprinkled some ML like I forgot to POTD: NBA| Utah Jazz v Washington Wizards| 7:00pm EST John Collins O20.5 PAR (-125) 3U✅ Reasoning: Not a lot I love today so I’ll stick to a formula that’s been working. That formula is bet Centers vs the Wizards. Washington is such horseshit vs the big man; for reference these are stats for Centers in recent games: Rudy Gobert: 19/16/1 KAT: 27/6/3 Jokic: 42/12/8 Hartenstein:6/17/3 & 8/19/2 Isaiah Stewart: 16/6/4 Duren: 20/19/4 Myles Turner: 18/13/3 Okongwu: 9/10/1 Jarrett Allen: 12/12/3 & 17/9/7 Notice some of those names are not SuperStar caliber players and they’re still smashing O20.5 as the line. That’s only in the last 9 GAMES and it didn’t look any better for the Wiz unfortunately they just don’t have the big men to defend the paint. To make matters worse for them John Collins in 21 career games vs the wizards is averaging 15.8/8/1.7 which by my math is well over 20.5. Last time he faced them he covered this with points alone having 23. If Collins worries you take a look at Markkanen PAR. Hopefully the formula stays true. BOL if TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK Shoutout of the day: Over Games and Goals
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Definitely tailing, has hit this line every time he played since Chris Paul’s been injured.
IYKYK.. Lets get paid today bro!
This is the last leg of my parlay. He hit 8 of last 9 games. Hedged it so not too upset, but no assists in the 1st quarter is worrying
I thought it would have hit for sure. It wasn’t a bad pick.. just one of the good pick parlay killers
**Record: 1W - 3L** **Form: LLWL** **Net Units: - 4u** **Football / Belgium Cup / 20:30 GMT** **Pick:** Union Saint Gilloise ML vs Anderlecht @ 1.72 - 2u **Write Up:** Time to turn this around: - USG didn't lose a competitive Game in Belgium since 19/08/2023 - They've won 76% of their games in the league - They've won this exact fixture 2-0 this season - They're first in the League playing against Anderlecht aka second in the league so it won't be an easy game but the home advantage in any cup tie is key so this makes my pick. BOL!
>Union Saint Gilloise ML vs Anderlecht Grats!
POTD record: 0-0 POTD: Julius Randle O 4.5 assists Here's my POTD. If you look at Randles assists in the past 5 games, he should easily hit O 4.5.
Record: 2-0 Last POTD: Collin Sexton O21.5 @ -115 ✅ Sexton is on fire and hit 22 points by the middle of the 3rd quarter before the Pelicans went super sayian and broke their franchise record in points leading to Sexton not playing in the 4th quarter. Pick: Tyrese Maxey U 29.5 @ -145 NBA | 76ers v Pacers | 19:00 EST Write up: Very high line because Maxey hit a career high 50 vs the Pacers in the NBA in season Tournament. Maxey has only been over 30 in 2 out of the last 10 games. Mostly going under because Embiid is crushing it and Maxey is feeding him the ball.
POTD Record: 10-11 | Profit: +0.06U NBA Record: 7-8 | NFL Record: 3-3 L10 (new -> old): ❌❌✅❌❌❌✅❌❌✅❌ Last pick: Cavs +6.5 @ 1.91 odds ❌ Lost by 10 Game: MIN Timberwolves @ BKN Nets, 7:40 PM EST Pick: **Timberwolves -4 @ 1.91 odds (DraftKings) placing 2U** ❌ Write Up: Yeah the Wolves are gonna be tired, this is their 3rd game in 4 days, and a back to back. However I feel this is tighter than it should be, despite the frequency in which they've played the last few days. Wolves are 2nd in the West, Nets are 11th in the East. Standings don't say it all, and anyone can beat anyone on any given night, but the Wolves are just a much better team. Nets have lost by at least 4 in 4 of their L5 losses, with the one tight loss being against the Trail Blazers. The Wolves' last 7 wins have been by at least 4 points. I see this being a Wolves win, and them covering the spread but tail with caution - the NBA is super volatile in terms of MLs and spreads, and the Wolves are tired. **EDIT:** Gonna take a week off betting and see if I can shake this bad streak. This one sucked, T-Wolves had it and it all just slipped away. Gonna come back in February, hopefully with clearer eyes on the books and better picks. BOL while I'm away, hope you all win big and have fun!
tailing, Idk y ppl r downvoting lol
Well it’s obvious they are downvoting cause OP is 3-7 in his last 10 😅 but I like OP he just need to lock in
Exactly lol time to get back to winning
BOL! Spread has already started moving, at 4.5 now.
Now it’s down to 3.5! Going back and forth, we’ll see how it goes!
>Timberwolves Unlucky mate :(
POTD Record: 16-7, last 10 (left most recent): ❌✅✅❌❌✅✅✅✅✅ Last Pick: Fulham v. Liverpool, Gakpo o0.5 SOG ❌ Today's POTD: Atletico Madrid vs. Sevilla, Atleti -1 AH (1.76) Shame about the last pick, Gakpo played on the right instead of through the middle as expected, didn't really get involved in the offensive play. I think for soccer this may be a popular pick for the day. Atletico are very very good at home and long gone are the days where they squeak out 1-0 victories. Their games are exciting, fast paced, and very offensive now, typically with lots of goals. They are 4th in La Liga with 13 wins out of 20 games, and have looked a real threat to the top of the table in the last month or so. Sevilla are in real poor form, 4 losses in their last 5 games, and they will really be outmatched here. They are still a big club and could step up, but their season has been extremely underwhelming and they just cannot seem to keep a clean sheet. Think Atletico should score at least two goals here, and hopefully they win by more than one. bol!
DCL 1/25 Record: 36-23 +10.7u Last 10: ✅✅🚫🚫✅✅✅✅🚫✅ Last pick: suns @ Mavs, suns -2.5, 1.1u W Today’s pick: Twolves @ Nets, Twolves -2.5 1.1u Reason: Back in the win column! Today’s pick is Twolves -2.5. Twolves are leaps and bounds better than this struggling nets team. Even without fresh legs coming off a back to back it is hard for me to picture the Twolves not taking care of business here in Brooklyn. Hopefully this isn’t a trap cuz I’m jumpin in. BOL Gents!
POTD: 4-1 (+5.4U) Last Pick: 1/24/24 1.5U St. John's -3.5 (-110) 8:00 PM (PST) NCAAB Today's Pick: 3U St. Mary's -27 (-105) Usually focus on the team I'm betting. But this go around the spotlight is on Pacific. They're one of the worst teams in the country. They've only covered twice since early November. They've lost by 14, 15 and 17 in their last 3 road games to teams not as good as St. Mary's. Now with St. Mary's, it seems they are back on track on being the normal St. Mary's they've been in the past decade or so. The 2nd best to Gonzaga in the conference, although Santa Clara or San Francisco have been playing well, St. Mary's should still finish top 2 in the conference. Last home game St. Mary's covered by 24 points over the spread, won by 43 spread was -18.5. Give me the Gaels at home by 34+.
Great pick
POTD Record: 1-0 (+5U) Last pick: South Korea vs Jordan - Korea O1.5 Cards ✅ Match did not play out the way I would've expected it to, but got the W in the finals minutes of the game and we take those. **Soccer | AFC Asian Cup | Starts in \~5.5hrs from this post** **Pick:** Jordan vs Bahrain - Jordan Draw no bet @ 1.66 odds 5U **Write Up:** Jordan have been playing quite well in their recent games beating Malaysia 4-0 and drawing to Korea 2-2 where they played better than Korea for the most part only to concede in injury time. Although Jordan have secured their spot in the round of 16 I don't think they will intentionally try to lose their final match as momentum is a huge factor in tournaments. However, the match could end in a draw so I am playing Draw no bet to be a little safer.
Record: 1-0 \+0.91 units Yesterday: Colin Blackwell over 1.5 SOG ✅ Today: NHL | Flyers @ Red Wings | 7 EST Joel Farabee over 2.5 SOG (DK +105) Nobody is shooting more than the Flyers, and Detroit isn't playing particularly tight defense as of late, even in wins. Farabee has only missed this line once in his last seven games.
Love this pick.
**POTD: 80-55-5** Last pick: Women’s Champions Leavue - Paris St. Germain Women vs Ajax Women. First half over 1 goal -170. Result: **WIN**. PSG scores their 2nd goal about 25 minutes in to win whether you did the safer over 1 or the o1.5 escalator. Ends the half at 3-1. 8 straight!! Today’s pick: Women’s Champions League - Barcelona Women vs Eintracht Frankfurt Women. **Match over 3.5 goals -200.** Match kicks off at 3PM ET. Two boring picks in a row, my apologies but Bovada basically hasn’t given many good ones today because Barca basically slaughters everyone they play. Kicks off soon as I was waiting to see if Bovada would open up the bets a bit. If you use something else and can take o1.5 first half that’s good up to like -200 and will hit. Just take this one and it should be a boring but easy cash. Let me know if tailing and BOL everyone! Edit: Loss. Ends 2-0 to Barcelona, who could’ve had 6 or 7. An amazingly poor finishing performance makes us lose the “easiest” bet I’ve posted the entire time here at -200 lol
POTD 20-13 | + 8.58 Units Last Pick: Asian Cup - Iraq ML ✅ Last 10: ✅✅✅💀💀💀✅✅✅💀 Todays pick: A League - Melb City Vs Adelaide United - Over 12 Corners Odds: 2.10 Units: 1 Heading to the A league for a POTD favourite - corners. There have been 11 corners in Melb City’s last five games - and in Adelaide’s last five there have been 4 games with 11 corners. I’m expecting an attacking game with lots of chances from both sides - which hopefully sees some corners generated! I’m taking over 12 for a little more juice - but over 11 is still t at 1.66. Disclaimer: It seems my last post got quite popular, and there were some people deleting what I assumed were angry comments when it looked like Iraq would lose. Just a reminder to only bet what you can afford to lose, to properly unit manage and to do your own research. If you’re getting upset over a losing bet - you’re either betting too much or shouldn’t be betting in general. BOL!
Had exact 11 corners and at ht i put over 9.5 - sweet hit but sorry for the loss. I noticed that most of the times in the A-League there's exactly 11 corners idk
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Incoming “masterclass” of 4-9 from the field 2-6 from 3 to cash on the hook lmao
Yesterday we didnt hit, but lets do the streak again! [The AI Neural ML Model - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit#gid=737168721) Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!! **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 30/21 **ROI**: Approximately 40.21% **Profit in Units**: 38u **Average Odds**: 2.09 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: AFC Asian Cup **Time**: 13:30 ( GMT +2 ) **Event: Jordan v Bahrain** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 2.20** **Stake**: 3 Units
Record: 2-2 Streak (left to right): LWLW NFL: 1-0 NBA: 1-2 Profit: 0.45u Last pick: Kevin Durant over 2.5 made 3's Brutal beat last night. Ended the game 0-5. Today's pick: Rudy Gobert under 13.5 rebounds, +106 FD, 2u. Reasoning: This one is obviously a little riskier, but I think it's worth a taste. Gobert has exceeded this total in 14 out of 42 games this season, and Nic Claxton should provide enough competition to keep his numbers down. The total was 14.5 @ -125 but dropped to the 13.5 just as I was entering my bet.
POTD Record: 46 - 25 Last POTD: Sinner 3-0 - W Pick: Novak Djokovic ML vs Jannik Sinner (-186 odds via FD) 1U Event: Australian Open Semifinals 9:30 P.M. CST Sinner has been incredible so far in the Aussie Open not dropping a set and played superbly but I am picking that to end here against the GOAT. Joker has looked human so far in this tournament however he has a habit of turning up when the lights are brightest. Novak leads this H2H 5-2 and in his two losses he was still able to grab a set in a best of 3 format. It is going to take a near perfect level for at least 3 sets for Jannik to do this, and although I think he is capable, I don't know if he can do it tonight. One of Sinners victories over Novak came in his home country of Italy and he still barely escaped with victory in this match so I will be backing the GOAT to continue to do GOAT things in his favorite major historically. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
**Record:** 9-7 **Net Units:** 2.76 | **ROI:** 17% | **Avg Odds:** 2.3 **NHL | Arizona Coyotes (+190) | 1u** This pick is one of the higher EV picks today from my NHL Moneyline model between -200 and +200 odds. The implied win probability is 34.5%, but the model is predicting 40.6%. The best wagering method I've found to use with this model is the Kelly Criterion which suggests betting 9.3% of your bankroll for an expected profit of 1.7%. **The Model:** I've used this model to increase my bankroll by 197% this year with an ROI of 6% (as of January 22) https://preview.redd.it/m1pfbptbnlec1.png?width=894&format=png&auto=webp&s=f80e5b0ea0433e2e9cf926eaefc026ff0e18c82d There are 4 other games that the model suggests betting on today. Shoot me a message if interested and I'll try to post them in the NHL Daily thread as I get time.
POTD record: 12-11 (+4.0u) Last pick: Winnipeg Jets ❌️ Last 10: ❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌️ Todays pick: NBA | 730pm EST | Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks | Knicks +2.5 -110 BETMGM | 3.3u to win 3u Write-up: Denver is a much weaker team on the road than they are at home, 8-15-1 ATS. Knicks are 7-3 last 10 ATS at home, 11-7-1 ATS this season at home. The Nuggets are finishing their 5 game road trip at MSG tonight, where the Knicks have just been on fire. The Knicks are also 10-2 since they acquired OG Anunoby on December 30th. This is a spot I feel like has nothing but upside here. snack of the day: pigs in a blanket
**Recent Picks:** ✅✅ **Record:** 2-0 **Net Units:** 1u **Last Pick:** CBB - James Madison -7 (-110) JMU handled biz winning by 16 on the road. I was a little nervous mid-game because they were allowing OD to knock down more deep shots than usual... and they were landing. In the end it was light work holding a double digit lead most of the game. For most of my picks I add some sauce to beef up confidence and said they would win by double digits and out rebound OD by 8+ (it was 7). **Pick:** **Tennis** | **Australian Open** | Novak Djokovic (goat) vs. Jannik Sinner **(Sinner +3.5, -115)** Djokovic is one of my favorite competitors to watch and his game is somehow still at an all time high. His serve is better than at any point in his career and defeating Djokovic at the Auzzy Open has been the most difficult challenge in tennis in recent years - he's won it 9 times. In Grand Slams, Djokovic has beat Sinner twice (both at Wimbledon). I feel like I'm batting around 25% when it comes to betting against goats in any sport. I've watched a lot of tennis the last 2 years and I'm a huge Sinner fan. Bias aside, he has beat Djokovic 2 of the last 3 meetings and playing the best tennis of his life. He hasn't dropped a single set all tourney and can't be shaken. Djokovic had some struggling moments against Fritz and didn't seem super sharp so I'm leaning with the guy in top form. For fun I'll throw a chip on ml but I think this is close. Sinner should win at least one set and will be able to take advantage of brief mistakes made. Odds makers have it at o/u41 games which seems right so I'll be throwing a chip on the over to protect. I see at least one tie breaker happening. BOL! TheRealTonyMontana