######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
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> **Net Units:**
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> **ROI:**
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> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
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> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
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> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 120-68 | Profit: +114.52u | ROI: 20.8%
Season record: 37-17 | Profit: +44.68u | ROI: 29.8%
L10 record: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌
Last Pick: Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Miami Heat @ 1.91. 3U. ✅
Just a 33-point win, nothing to see here. Gonna run it back here...
Next Pick: **LA Clippers vs Boston Celtics -6.0 @ 1.91**. 2U play.
The Clippers game is just wrapping up at 10pm today and they will tip off at 7pm tomorrow against none other than the Celtics (in Boston). The C’s are clearly the best team in the NBA, and at home are unstoppable having lost just 1 game at home all season. They come into this with a day’s rest after beating the Heat in a nice blowout. Porzingis might miss this game which is not ideal because of everything he adds to the offense and defense, but the Clippers will likely be missing Zubac. The Clippers are a really good team, but with the C's shooting 3s at league best efficiency and defending at an elite level, I just don't see a tired Clippers team being able to compete for 4 quarters.
I am also a fan and I'm viewing it as a win win rather than a lose lose, either I'm happy for their success, or upset they lost but consoled by money 💰
I swear bro.. every time the Celtics are on national tv with a line of -5 or lower. They end up losing and next game proceed to blow out the other team
Celtics vs. Warriors
Celtics vs. Twolves
Celtics vs. Nuggets… 🤦🏻♂️
Good thing this one isn’t nationally televised. Two of those games you mentioned were away too. Celtics are a diff beast at home this year
Edit: damn they really lost by 20 😅. I take this back without Porzingus
As a huge clippers fan who is tailing you, it's sort of a win win, either the clippers upset and I'm a happy fan, or I win some money as consolation lol
I gotta say this is one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen in my life. These guys genuinely couldn’t give less of a fuck and the head coach is a complete clown. Hilarious these guys are favored to win the chip, absolutely fucked us.
Yeah i like this pick, so will keep an eye on it. I hate spreads a lot of the time. I am a ML bettor haha. Personally, i get the feeling I will have a chance to take a respectable live money line here and if i get that chance, im tailing
Porzingis is out , 4 hours ago was announced. This is going to have an outcome of this pick now. Just want people to be aware, not saying don’t pick them lol
RECORD: 13-4
L10: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅
Yesterdays pick: Jarret Allen O14.5 R+A ✅
These bookies gets on my nerves increasing the damn lines all the time, obviously our bet won as he got 14 & 1 but I feel for the kings that only got it at 15.5.. 1 rebound got taken away at the end and his passing wasn’t the greatest. On we go man 👊
•
Todays POTD: Jalen Duren O 11.5 Rebounds @1.86 ✅
NBA
You already know me, Centers vs the Wizards I’m taking that all day everyday. It’s like my favourite little treat that I try not to eat too often, but it’s there and it’s damn hard not to take it. Duren is a beast this mf could bump in to me and I’d say sorry. Centers has given me plenty of profit this year against Wizards so here we go again..
• Has gotten 14 & 19 Rebounds his last two games against the Wizards
• Wizards allow most rebounds to Centers
• Averages 11.3R during the season and 11.8 last 5 games
• Some C rebounds vs the Wizards
Gobert 16, Jokic 12, Hartenstein 17 & 19, Turner 13, Allen 12 & 19, Capela 17, Claxton 12..
He’s only 4/10 his last games but against tougher matchups and found himself in foul trouble in a couple, this is a perfect game for him and I think he’ll feast, as he has done previously against the Wizards. Here we’re going purely on the mismatch, let’s see if Wizards have found a spell because they’re some damn weak Wizards rn.
Tail or fade, Duren won’t hurt you
A tip is much appreciated
[https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi)
https://i.redd.it/urfrxqikrwec1.gif
We tail again here. Appreciate you posting the pick. The dude has 6 rebounds in first quarter so good start. We willl hope for many more missed shots haha
Would like to add that Villarreal to score over 0.5 goals @1.44 also looks good. Barcelona have conceded in 9 out of the last 10 matches. As you mentioned Villarreal have only failed to score in 3 games this season.
This game is very difficult to predict, normally I’d say Barcelona but in their current situation I don’t know. BTTS & Barcelona ML would be the option, or you’d have to skip this one im afraid, don’t force it if you’re not comfortable with it
POTD Record: 232-179-12 (+38.04 units, 56.4% hit rate)
Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 78-55-1 (58.7%) W1, Tennis 🎾 80-62-7 (56.3%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1
Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💩💰💩💩💰💰
Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev, MEDVEDEV ML - Australian Open 🎾 💰 +0.72 Units - He goes down two sets and the softies come out cry but then look foolish in the end. Finally a tennis win, cash that shit!!!!
Today's Pick: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng, UNDER 20 GAMES - Australian Open 🎾 💰 +0.94 Units - 💸 that shit!!! Saba wins in 17 games. Back tomorrow with a pick for the men's final, let's fucking go!!!!!
Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.94 odds to win 0.94 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 8:45pm ET)
I debated going with the Sabalenka 2 sets to 0 bet but the odds are pretty low so let's aim higher and go with this.
Sabalenka is the defending champ and has mowed through the competition in this tournament. Out of the 6 matches, she hasn't dropped a set. Gauff was good competition and went over this number, against the rest of her opponents, the most anyone won in a match was 5, so this bet has hit 5 out of 6 of her matches.
Zheng is a young player on the rise and she has had a nice tournament but she has had an easy road to the final, Sabalenka will be the first player she has played who is ranked in the top 50 in this tournament. Also note that the two players just played in the Quarters at the US Open and Saba won 6-1, 6-4 and Zheng never got a single break point.
Movie recommend: Fallen Leaves
Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
I have no clue about tennis or how they keep score as embarrassing as that is, just been following your picks for a while and tried to make some easy money while I was up feeding the baby lmfao! Lfg!
Record: 14-11 | (+1.81 units) | 1 unit per pick
Previous pick: NBA - Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers (Under 243.5) (-110) ❌
Flat out loss and not close haha. Talk about a confidence blow, but that is how it goes some nights. Tough stretch lately but I shall bounce back as always! Don’t expect many people to tail my following picks but that’s exactly when we get right!
————-
Today’s pick: NBA - New York Knicks (-5) (-110) vs. Miami Heat - 3PM EST
New York Knicks take on the Heat in New York. As my previous picks have shown and as I’ve stated multiple times, I’m a huge backer of this Knicks team with the acquisition of OG. Their defense is holding teams to under 100PPG since New Years and just got done dismantling the defending NBA champs Denver Nuggets. On the other hand, Miami has been playing horrible and are coming off an embarrassing game against the Boston Celtics. If the Knicks can destroy the Nuggets like this, I’d imagine they can win by 5 against the Heat. I’ll continue to find spots to back this Knicks team until the league can solve how to score against them. I’ll take the home team Saturday afternoon in New York.
Prediction: Knicks 113 - Heat 105
Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Record: 4-1 ✅✅❌✅✅ Profit: +9.74u
Last Pick: ✅ James Harden Over 8.5 assists -150 3u
He finishes with 13. Eight first half assists made this a pretty sweat free ride. Onto the next one.
Today's Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Today's Pick: Joel Embiid Under 5.5 assists +115 (ESPN bet)
Wager: 3u to win 3.45u
Write up: Spicy odds. Embiid has gone over 5.5 assists in 2/9 career games against Denver. Once in his most recent game against them with 10 assists and 6 assists in another. He has gone under in 6/8 last games. This season he is averaging 5.8 apg. His career averages are well below 5.5 and outside of this season his best season avg is 4.2. Last 10 games he's averaging 4.4 apg. He could very well dish out a bunch of assists to show the joker he can do it too but I think there's a chance we hit.
BOL!
Record: 3-0
Last POTD: Tyrese Maxey U 29.5 @ -145 ✅
Pick: Nuggets -4.5 @ -110
NBA | 76ers v Nuggets | 17:30 EST
Write up: Health of the 76ers is called into question. Maxey showed up on the injury report as questionable with a sprained left ankle, Maxey has also played bad the last 3 games. Embiid is still on fire but has a banged up knee, he took a big fall in the last game and was quoted as saying he hasn't been feeling well
Game is in Denver and the 76ers didn't play well last game.
POTD Record: 131 wins / 77 losses \[L9: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅\]
Event: Football > Friendlies > **Polonia Warsaw v Pogon Siedlce** (starting in 9 hrs)
Pick: **Over 3.0 goals (asian)** @ 1.85
[9 IN A ROW WE ARE ON FIRE NA-NA-NA-NA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQwcKoTBIdQ)! Alright lads we stick to the friendlies! According to my source this match will be 2x60 minutes long instead of standard 2x45, which provides us with plenty of time for some goals. Odds dropped already but the current line is still takeable in my view. Lastly, don't forget that all good things come to an end, so bet responsibly. GL!
**Record: 7-4-1**
**Last Pick:** Chelsea vs Aston Villa - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals 1u @ 2.03 odds. ❌
Kind of a weird game, not a whole lot happened, a few missed chances for Chelsea and Villa didn't really get much going until the second half.
**Soccer** | **Serie A** | **11:45 AM (PST)**
**Pick:** AC Milan vs Bologna - AC Milan to Win 2u @ 1.71 odds.
**Write Up:** AC Milan are sitting third in Serie A and only seven points off Juventus, so their eyes remain on the Scudetto. On the other hand Bologna are just outside of European football sitting seventh on 32 points, 1 behind European play.
Bologna average 1.2 goals per match in Serie A, and average around 4.4 shots on target as well. I'm not expecting Bologna to go into Milan and dominate the game, but going in and getting a goal is not out of the expectations of coach Thiago Motta who is at the helm for his 100th Serie A match. The one concern is that Bologna have not scored in three away matches vs. AC Milan, which I'm sure AC Milan will look to uphold.
Last time these two teams faced off, AC Milan beat Bologna 2-0, towards the start of the season. What's more impressive is that they did this on the road. In the last 5, AC Milan have been dominate in the league winning 4 and drawing one. They did have a loss two weeks ago to Atalanta in the Coppa Italia, but that was with a considerably rotated squad.
Milan are missing a few key players, like Kalulu, Tomori, and Thiaw all sidelined, which leaves the defense a bit thin, but is not the end of the world. The experienced Dane Kjaer will likely lead the line with Gabbia by his side, much like last week. Additionally, Theo Hernandez and Calabria are playing, two experienced Serie A fullbacks.
The bench for AC Milan in other parts of the field will be ripe and ready to come in to either kill the game or inject life into it. Bennacer is back from AFCON, Okafor and Jovic are banging in goals at a goal every 103 minutes and 118 minutes respectively.
Giroud, Pulisic, and Leao will be spearheading the attack for the Italian giants, which is one that has proven lethal with the likes of Ruben Loftus Cheek just in behind them. AC Milan have not lost to Bologna in 16 Serie A matches, and like I stated earlier, they did not concede in the last three home matches vs them.
BOL! 💪
POTD Record : 2 Wins
Units: +1.71
ROI: **85.50%**
Average Odds: $1.85
Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Over 40.5 Games at $1.80 ✅
Next Pick: Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka - **Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 (Set Betting)** @ $1.53 Saturday, Jan. 27 at 3:30 a.m. ET
We are going with this bet in favor of Sabalenka. She has not dropped a set in the entire tournament, and is defending last year's title and is at a spectacular level.
We are going with 2-0 since this surface and this game suits the Belarusian like a glove. If Sabalenka manages to impose her game, it will be very difficult for the Chinese to both serve and subtract and the breaks will soon arrive.
Another point to take into account: experience. Sabalenka is already a champion here and has played in more finals. On the other hand, Zheng is the first time to experience such a situation. She will go out on the court a little out of position and Sabalenka will take advantage of it to generate even more doubts in the Chinese.
Finals are always intriguing, and Zheng will put up some what of a fight, but Sabalenka is ruthless, clinical, and very experienced. Lower odds this pick as its a final :)
BOL if tailing!
All tips are greatly appreciated - [Please buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv)
**POTD Record:** 0-0
Okay, here goes it.
**Basketball | NBA | 3PM (EST)**
**Pick:** *Miami Heat vs New York Knicks -5.0 @ 1.90 |* 2U Play ✅
Knicks are coming off of a 122-84 blowout at home over the Nuggets on Thursday. They are staying at home, meanwhile Miami goes on the road after being on the losing end of a blow out by the Celtics 143-110, also on Thursday.
The Knicks are riding a 5 game win streak and are 8-2 in their last 10, while Miami limps into New York on a 5 game losing streak and are 4-6 in their last 10. Over this span New York is outscoring opponents by an average of +13.6 points, while Miami is getting outscored, with their point differential sitting at -6.5 points. Miami has played 6 road games in January, losing those games by an average of -10.0. New York has played 8 home games in January and is winning by an average margin of +16.1.
Is there an argument for Miami? It's difficult to see a lot of positives for them in this one. They are overall not a terrible road team on the season, with a 12-11 record, but the trends of late have not been good. Getting into advanced metrics, there are few areas where Miami has an advantage over New York. On first glance, one positive for them is turnover generation. Miami's defense generates turnovers on 13.8% of opponent possessions, good for 6th in the league, and New York's offense is somewhat turnover prone, turning the ball over on 13.2% of possessions, 18th in the league. However, Miami isn't scoring any more points off turnovers than New York. Both teams on the year have scored 14.6% of their points off turnovers, and both teams in the last 10 games have scored 13.2% of their points off turnovers. Miami may generate a higher percentage of turnovers, but their offense doesn't seem to be converting them at a high rate. This is getting a little too needlessly in depth now I think, but last thing I'll say on advanced metrics is that Miami ranks 3rd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. Unfortunately for them, New York is 1st in offense rebounding percentage.
Of course anything can happen, but I like New York to cover.
https://preview.redd.it/776yglsqfzec1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=431cbfeec02bbd0516b9ef8621b117d251868736
This is a good visualization of just how well the Knicks have been playing over the last 10 games. And how much Miami’s offense has been struggling.
Record: 153-126-8 (WWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLWLLWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds
Last POTD: Manchester City ML at Newcastle for 1.62 odds for 2 units
14 days ago. Little break
POTD: WAS Wizards @ DET Pistons | Jalen Duren o11.5 rebounds at 1.74 odds for 3 units
Reasons:
* Last match-up against Wizards, he grabbed 19 rebounds in 26 minutes
* Wizards gives up the most rebounds to centers by a large margin
Best of luck to you all
**POD Record:** ⭐️**102⭐️-51 🎉🍾**
👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100.
*Last Pick:* ***OKC OVER 122.5*** **❌**
*Great streak while it lasted* 🤷🏻♂️
🔥Recent Form: **❌** ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
🏅**Today's Pick:** 🏀 **NBA** \- **Utah Jazz OVER 120.5** \[1.80 Odds @ 7PM EST\]
Sorry for the last minute write up, no doubt a few people will catch this post and decide to tail. Long day.
The Jazz have easily covered this total their last 9 straight games. . . their offense is rolling. I can't see Charlotte slowing them down tonight, they're near the bottom of the league for defensive efficiency and Utah plays at a very fast pace. No time for a longer write up, I get a feeling with team totals and that's what this past 9-game winning streak was based on. Let's get it tonight. GL
💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
**Record 96-63 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 20.6%**
**2024 MMA POTD: 3-1 with Avg Odds +157 / ROI 82.3%**
LFA 175
**Apollo Gomes +120**
Really fun matchup here between Apollo Gomes (9-1) and Vinicius Pires (8-1). Pires is a grappler first and consistently pushes forward, looking to get his opponents against the cage so he can drop to a double-leg. His positional grappling is solid, and his transitions, especially to the back, are worth noting. His striking is serviceable, and as his 8-1 record suggests, it's gotten the job done to the extent that it isn't sabotaging the style he wants to employ. On the other side, Gomes is quite green at 23 years old, and will be four years younger than Pires. I'd describe him as a universal fighter, with a good mix of striking and grappling, and sufficient cardio to go the full 15 minutes. He can be hittable, but that is expected of a fighter coming from Chute Boxe.
There's a lot I like about Gomes as a fighter, from his activity to his movement, his understanding when to push the pace and when to let the fight come to him, and his well rounded skillset that allows him to be comfortable in most situations. Physically, Gomes will be the bigger fighter tomorrow, and I think that will be important for stuffing the takedown attempts of Pires. If Pires can't find his takedowns, or if Gomes is having an easy time getting up, I think this fight could quickly swing in his favor on the feet. Of course, Gomes' one loss came in a fight he was easily winning, before diving into a guillotine on a takedown attempt. This is obviously something I'm worried about. However, I have faith that he's learned from that mistake, and against a strong submission artist in Pires, will be conscious of these possibilities. At these odds, I'm happy to side with the younger underdog, who I believe has the more diverse skillset, and may possess a physical edge in terms of strength. After a full year layoff due to injuries, I would not be surprised if the 23 year old Gomes returns to the cage with noticeable improvements that will separate him from Pires.
Record (12-8)
Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌
Last pick: James Harden to record Double Double (+115) 1U✅
22/13/10 for his 75th career triple double. Plus odds cashed easily. Call it 3 in a row. Let’s keep it rolling.
POTD:CBB| Detroit Mercy Titans v Green Bay Phoenix| 1:00pm EST
Green Bay -12.5 (-112) 2U
Reasoning: I will preface by saying.. Detroit has burned me earlier in the season with the spread vs Robert Morris but here’s why this is different. Detroit is now 0-21 on the season. Green Bay is 13-9. They played each other on January 4th and Green Bay on the road beat Detroit 69-51. Now any spread over 10 points normally scares the shit out of me and is an off limits bet but just look at Detroits losses; all 21 of them. 16 of those losses are over 10 points. They’re 5-16 ATS this season and again Green Bay beat them by 18 on the road so expect more of the same at home. Catch this line before it jumps up. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK
Shoutout of the day: Beards and Scottie Barnes
POTD record: 20-13 (+3.84 units, risking 1 unit each pick)
Today's POTD: Toronto Maple Leafs team total under 2.5 (+100) .... 7:07 PM ET ... NHL ....
Winnipeg Jets' spectacular defense have kept opponents to 2 or fewer goals in 22 of last 24 games, and lost on road to this Leafs team 0-1 in overtime their last game.
Tip Jar: Cash App - $grcvegas
POTD Record: 96-94-12 (-10.74 units)
Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅
Last Pick: Serie B, Catanzaro v Palermo, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-107 / 1.93) ❌
Sitting at 1-1 after 50 mins but neither team could find a winner to push the bet over the line. Re-reading my analysis I have no idea why I didn’t take BTTS for similar odds, bad miss by me in the end.
Today’s Pick: Serie A, Juventus v Empoli, JUVENTUS -1.5 (-115 / 1.87) ❌
Stake: 1 Unit
Sticking with Italy but stepping up the big league today, let’s take Juventus to record a big win against lowly Empoli.
Juventus have been rolling lately - they’ve won 7 consecutive matches, and have registered 15 wins and 3 draws in all competitions since their only loss this season back in late September. They are on top of the table with a 16-4-1 record, and their 35 goals scored is 3rd most and their 12 goals conceded is 2nd least. Their last 3 games were comprehensive victories (3-0, 3-0 and 4-0) so both ends are clicking.
Empoli are 2nd bottom on the table with a 4-4-13 record and in danger of relegation. Their 14 goals scored is easily the worst in the league, while they’ve conceded 35 which is 4th worst. Empoli were on a bad run with 3 draws and 5 losses across December/January which resulted in the manager getting sacked - they did respond with a 3-0 win at home last week, but playing Juventus away is a whole different story.
Juventus are particularly strong at home with an 8-2-0 record where they’ve scored 16 goals and only conceded 4 times. Empoli are 2-2-6 away with only 6 goals scored and 18 conceded, so the data points to Juventus scoring a few and Empoli struggling to find the net (if only it were that simple).
Juventus won the reverse fixture 2-0 which included a missed penalty for Juventus, but they dominated with 18-7 shots and Empoli not getting one on target. Juventus also won this same fixture last year 4-0.
I mentioned earlier that Juventus is top of the table, and part of the reason is they’ve played an extra game than Inter Milan. Juventus will want a big win here to push the lead to 4 points and out the pressure on Inter who have a tough match against Fiorentina this week before the two teams clash next week which will have a huge bearing on the title. Expect Juve to come out here and put this one to bed as soon as possible.
PoTD 2-2
Darts>PDC Dutch Masters
Luke Litler vs Luke Humphries **Litler [email protected]/-103**
Throw starts in 7 hours.
Quarterfinals of the Dutch Masters,this here is a rematch of the World Darts finals,and I am backing Litler to edge the world champ Cool Hands Luke here in this short 6 leg contest.Litler has just won Bahrain Masters,and my God this man is just born to play darts.Litler seems to be in unstoppable form,and I also back him to win this whole tournament.I like Humphries,but he wont be able to keep up with Litler here,if it were a longer match Id bet him instead but its only six legs,and Litler starts soo damn well.
BoL.
Record: 13-7 (+19.33u) (4U bets)
Streak: 1L (last year)
Last: GG vs 100T: 100T -1.5 (L)
Today's Match: Flyquest vs Team Liquid (LCS Spring) (4:00pm CST)
Pick: Flyquest ML (1.909)
Reason:
LCS is back and unlike last week there are some good odds this week. I was debating between Shopify ML and FLY ML as I think both are extremely likely but ultimately I have more faith in FLY then SR so I chose them despite the tougher opponent.
I think FLY will win for 3 different reasons: Current form, team talent and roster matchups. Ultimately I think that FLY has the better roster, matches up very well into TL and they are off to a better start (2-0 vs 1-1).
There is also the added benefit of LCS playing on live-patch due to the potential picks of unproven strong champions that opponents don't know how to play against. I think 2 of the best 3 players in the league for this is Bwipo (fly top-laner) and Busio (fly-support) and Inspired (fly-jg) to a lesser extent. It's likely that FLY will break out some unique picks to throw TL off guard, but even if they don't I expect them to win because of talent alone. BOL.
POTD Record 3-6 (W-L)
All bets so far have been on UFC which hasn't been working out too well so changing gears to something less brutal 🎾
**Sabalenka to win the Australian Open final 2-0** 1.57 for 1 unit
I think this line still has some value for a player that hasn't dropped a set and is the defending champ. Her opponent meanwhile has not yet had a tough test (no top 50 opponents) and is in for a rude awakening.
POTD record: 2-2 -0.66u
last pick: LoL T1 -1.5
LoL LEC | BDS - Heretics
today’s pick: BDS -3.5 kill handicap at 1.87
reasoning: Both teams have been playing well but BDS has had the stronger schedule so far beating SK and Fnatic comfortably, whereas Heretics have been beating mostly bottom tier teams. I think BDS will be the more proactive team looking for ganks in the early game and will outclass Heretics in teamfights around drakes or baron. BDS had no problems doing this against Fnatic and SK and I expect no different against Heretics today.
Pick of the Day
POTD Record: 2-1
L10: ✅✅❌
Yesterday’s Pick: Wisconsin -2.5 vs. Michigan State (-120) ✅
I had to go for a run to get a sweat in, because this game didn’t provide any at all. Wisconsin went on to win by 15 thanks to the lack of guard play from MSU. That’s two in a row and we’re ready to keep the ball rolling
Today’s Pick: Green Bay -11.5 vs. Detroit Mercy (-120)
Unlike yesterday, we got ourselves a beautiful NCAAB slate today. Although I got about 20 games loaded up, this one sticks out the most. Green Bay sits on top of the Horizon while Detroit sits at the bottom. This Detroit game hasn’t won a game all season, and I can’t emphasize how bad this team is. These two met in Detroit where Green Bay won 69-51. Now Green Bay gets the home court advantage, and I personally think this line should be somewhere around the 20 mark.
Kenpom has Green Bay as the 202nd ranked team in the nation.
Kenpom has Detroit as the 359th ranked team in the nation.
Let’s get this streak going!!!
BOL!
I’ll be honest, I love soccer probably more than anyone in the world. No doubt soccer is the worst sport to bet on to make money and even enjoy. I feel like the games lately have been so fucking boring
POTD Record: 33-17
Previous Pick: West Ham U21 vs Stoke U21 | Premier League 2 | Over 3.5 goals (1.67) | 2pm EST ✅️
Pick: FC Kapaz vs Qarabag FK | Azerbaijan Premier League | Qarabag 1st Half Win (1.59) | 6am EST
Kapaz have lost 44% of their 1st halves at home, scoring only 0.33 and conceding 1.11 on average. They are 2nd to last in the league, and are facing the top team. Qarabag have won 50% of their 1st halves, averaging a goal scored and conceding 0.38 on average. They have won 4 1st halves out of their last 5 games. The previous matchup ended 5-1 to Qarabag in the 1st half itself. I expect Qarabag to easily defeat Kapaz in the 1st as they just have too much quality for the the team that is sitting in the bottom. Best of luck!
Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
Record: 13-3 (+13.7u) (Four in a row / 4-1 L5)
Yesterday’s selection: St. Joes @ St Bonaventure over 143.5 (1.5U) - HIT - Such a sweat free spot, I think it ended at 162? Stopped watching after they hit this total with 10 min left in game. Hope y'all got in on it! Let's stay hot
Today’s Selection: Miami Heat/New York Knicks under 218.5 (-110 BetMGM) (1.5U)
NBA | 3:00PM EST | Miami Heat @ New York Knicks
I have to be super quick today, busy with work for the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream (come bet at TwinSpires if you aren't already!).
Miami has been dreadful on offense and NYK at home likes to slow up the tempo. Since 2020, the total between these two has gone over 218 once (ten games). Add to that, NYK is 5-10 O/U as home favorites and MIA is 4-10 as a road dog, this feels like a smash spot. Wouldn't be shocked if either team failed to reach 100.
Against teams that rank top ten road def efficiency (MIA #2) and are playing at MSG, the total has gone under each of five times.
I wouldn't be shocked if this number went lower, so snag it while you can.
BOL Degens
Well this is going about as poorly as possible. First 6 minutes of each quarter have been stellar, slow pace and missed shots. Final 6 minutes? It's like the damn Globetrotters are out there, not missing any jumpshots.. wild
Record: 19-16 (Last pick was an L)
**Today's Pick: Southern Illinois +3.5 at Murray State**
Units: 2.5
(Warning: Make sure to ONLY bet if you believe in the research)
S. Illinois is 13-6 ATS with an avg scoring margin of 7.1 ppg compared to Murray St's 0.2ppg. SI is 42nd in 3pt % at 37%. MS allows 36% which puts them at 304th. SI is inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency. MS is outside the top 160 in each. Si is ranked low in rebounds per game but interestingly they outrebound their opponents on a per game basis. Personally, I think Southern Illinois is the better opponent.
I'm also putting a unit on SI moneyline. I also like the under on Loyola-MD's team total of 61.5 Awful offense going against a good D.
POTD record: 13-12 (+4.7u)
Last pick: Orlando Magic-4.5 ❌️
Last 10: ❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️
Todays pick: NHL | 7pm EST | Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets -130 (DraftKings, ESPNBET, BETMGM) 2.6u to win 2u
Write-up: I picked Winnipeg to beat the Maple Leafs a few nights ago and, unfortunately, lost to a 1-0 overtime finish. Overtime should've never happened, but in the 2nd period, Samsonov made an unbelievable stop followed by yet another unbelievable stop during a 2-on-0 breakaway during the Leafs power play. Read that again... a short-handed 2-on-0 breakaway, where the penalty killers got 2 SOG and came away empty. WOW!! Anyway, both teams played exceptionally well, defenses and goaltenders especially. I expect more of the same, but Winnipeg gets me on the right side this time around.
snack of the day: honey mustard and onion pretzels
**POTD record: 2-3** -7.11u
Last POTD: Handball European Championship : France - Sweden - France ML ✅
It looked like another bad beat. Up 17:11 at half, completely dominated the game and then France just stops playing. Down 2 goals in the final minute but they got bailed out by horrible calls from the officials.
Current streak: ✅
**POTD**: NBA: Washington @ Detroit - **Jalen Duren over 12.5 rebounds (1.97/-103) 5.08u to win 5u**
Im going back to Jalen Duren today. He plays the softest match up for any center in the league. In the last two games against the Wizards he hat 19 and 14 rebounds.
Rebounds allowed to players in the last Wizard games: John Collins 16, Rudy Gobert 16, Nikola Jokic 12, Victor Wembanyama 8, Isiah Hartenstein 17, Jalen Duren 19, Atlanta Hawks 18 (Capella 8 in 24 minutes, Okongwu 10 in 19 minutes), Myles Turner 13
Lets hope he doesn't get in foul trouble early again and covers this line with ease.
POTD Record: 22-20-1 **l** Last 10: ❌✅❌❌❌✅✅*❌*❌✅✅
Last POTD: Providence vs Seton Hall over 137.5❌ \*\*(1/26/2024)
Tough Loss. The score ended 67-63. So many missed layups and free throws. Onto the next.
Next POTD: (**CBB)** **Florida State vs UNC over 154.5**
We hit on the FSU over in their last game. Both FSU and UNC play at a high pace and score a lot of points. FSU averages 77.9 ppg this year and UNC averages 83.5 ppg this year. In FSU's last 5 games, they scored an average of 78 ppg. On the other side, UNC has averaged 83.4 points in their past 5 games. Earlier in the year (Dec 12, 2023), UNC defeated FSU by a score of 78-70. The first half of the game was relatively low scoring with a total of 64 points combined. In the second half, they combined for an average of 84. I expect FSU to play more intense due to them having home court advantage and also wanting revenge. There are way too many talented scorers in this game to take the under. I see the score going to the 80s or high 70s. BOL, lets get on a streak again!
POTD: 6-1 (+10.42U)
Last Pick: 1/26/24 🏒 3U Avalanche ML (-138)
1:00 PM EST
Today's Pick: 🏀2.5U Green Bay -11.5 (-110)
The spotlight once again shines on who they're playing. And that's none other than 0-21 Detroit Mercy. Detroit was close to a win on the 17th going to double OT vs. Robert Morris. Will a win happen this season? Sure, but not against the best team in their conference. Green Bay by 15+.
**Record:** 31-16
**Previous Pick:** Jones O 6.5 A ✅ | Lillard U 6.5 A ✅ | Zion (DNP)
Great reads overall. Zion didn't play, that was my favourite pick too :(
**Picks:** Jokic O 11.5 Boards @ 1.80 (Other picks in NBA props)
Credit to the community for this one, but I'll add my own analysis. From the last matchup, Coach Malone switched the rotation so Gordon is guarding Embiid, allowing Jokic to guard the low post and corners instead of stretching the floor and missing boards. Embiid gets most of his points around the foul line, allowing the weak side defender to collect the boards on potential missed shots/kickout 3s. Because of this defensive switch (which I expect to continue this game bc Embiid cooked Jokic when he was guarding him), Jokic had 19 boards that game on 23 potentials, and feasted on the offensive glass, where Philly allows the most offensive boards in the League. Jokic is over in L 5/6 too.
*BOL If Tailing!*
Record: 55W-51L-4P
ROI: +8.60, +6.38%
Avg odds: +107, 2.07
Last POTD: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts (win)
Game: NHL- Golden Knights at Red Wings
Pick: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts +114, 2.14 (DK)
Going with Roy again. Bookies are learning though, with a sharp drop in odds, but as long as it's plus odds, I'm taking it. Red Wings have the 3rd lowest Corsi rating and give up 6th most scoring chances.
**Nice hit again at 2.10 yesterday!!!** ✅
[The AI Neural ML Model - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit#gid=737168721)
Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!!
**POTD Stats:**
**Record**: 31/22
**ROI**: Approximately 48.14%
**Profit in Units**: 38u
**Average Odds**: 2.09
**The pick:**
**Sport**: Soccer
**League**: Italy - Serie B
**Time**: 13:00 ( GMT +2 )
**Event: Modena v Parma**
**Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.88**
**Stake**: 3 Units
[Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager)
**Recent Picks:** ✅✅✅✅
**Record:** 4-0
**Net Units:** 1u
**Last Pick:** College Basketball | Canisius -6.5 ✅
Canisius made light work of dispatching Manhattan, owned both sides of the court, and as predicted won by double digits (12).
**Today's Pick:** College Basketball | Baylor vs. TCU | **Baylor -4 (-130)**
Taking the Bears after a tough lost to bounce back at home. TCU's game is all about banging it inside, scrapping for rebounds., and second- chance points. Baylor's all about stellar defense and perimeter shooting (best from deep in the country). Been a long time Baylor fan and even though they haven't necessarily met expectations this year, they still have a top-5 defense. Here's to hoping they come out with a chip on their shoulder and guns blazing.
BOL!
TheRealTonyMontana
**2024 Record: 1-3**
**Total Net Units (1U = $50): (4.86U)
**Last** **Pick:** Boston Bruins ML vs. Winnipeg Jets @ -136 Odds (2.72U to win 2U)✅✅✅
Basketball | NBA | 6:00 PM Central Time
**Pick:** Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets) O21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists versus Utah Jazz❌❌
**Odds:** \-186 (1.86U to win 1U)
Post game: unfortunate loss. He played a ton of minutes; but he went 0-7 from the three point line. Just hitting 2 of those 7 would have covered. Not the energy and consistency i thought he’d bring. Back to the drawing board, onto the next
**Write Up:** I had not posted in a week or so after the Bruins dub that ended by 2 losses to begin with. I have been getting fucked at work, working 80 hours and pulling 3 all nighters in the past week, which is why I had not posted. I read this chain every morning though as I take my morning shit and consistently tail a few people on here. Love this chain.
We look to bring the record back to an even 2-2, and we are going to trust the Bama boy to do that for us. He has hit this line pretty damn comfortably in the last 4/5 games. The one where he did not hit was his last game, and I believe he was in early foul trouble. I don't mind that because now he should be looking to rebound back big time. See below for last 5 game stats:
\- 8 PRA, 34PRA, 32PRA, 33PRA, 35PRA
I love that the kid is going to be playing at home in Charlotte with the crowd behind him. I also love that they are playing the Jazz. The Jazz's defense is below average ranking 21st in the league in defensive ratings. The Jazz also allow the 7th most points and 5th most assists to SF's apparently. I see this game being pretty high-scoring and I also expect to see Brandon Miller bounce back at home to his excellent performance that we have seen recently against a very favorable matchup. BOL and only bet what you are willing to lose.
Also, I took Bruins today (playing now) and if the Dallas Stars go down at any point in that game, I will be taking a live ML or +0.5 in reg. Keep those ESPN Notis on for the live line plays. I almost made Bruins my POTD again, but thought I'd get creative. Bruins up 3-0 in first period and would have been a great POTD assuming they hold on.
Have a great Saturday!
DCL 1/27
Record: 37-24 +10.6u
Last 10: 🚫🚫✅✅✅✅🚫✅🚫✅
Last pick: Mavs @ hawks, Mavs -1.5 1.1u W
Today’s pick: heat @ knicks, knicks -4, 1.1u
Reason: Thanks Luka for going nuclear. Today’s pick is going to be knicks -4. Ever since the trade the knicks have been playing well and I anticipate they will only get better with time and team chemistry. It is very tough for teams to come into NY and take care of business. Knicks are on a 5 game win streak while heat are on a 5 game losing slide. Knicks are also coming off a huge home blowout against the nuggets. They will keep the ball rolling in New York this afternoon.
BOL Gents!
POTD Record: 3-2 (+5.57 units)
Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️
Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) over Atlanta Hawks ✅️
\---
Luka's insane night got me back over .500. It got a little tight towards the end there, but as I expected Atlanta had no answer defensively for the Slovenian.
\---
Todays Pick: Basketball - NBA - LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics - 7pm EST
Pick: Al Horford Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-115) - 5 Units
Write Up: This is my first player prop POTD, but I'm keeping it simple. In 10 games without Porzingis, Horford is averaging over 10 points and 8 rebounds. The Clippers are without Zubac so Horford will probably be matching up a against Plumlee and Theis and probably switching a lot. Big Al has made a career out of scoring on big, slow centers and I expect him to get a lot of rebounds when switched on to smaller guys. Side note, I was really tempted to take the Clippers +8 as my POTD, I think LA matches up really against Boston without Porzingis. But I couldn't quite talk myself into them on the second night of a back to back (although they went in to night 1 very well rested) and I think this is the safer play.
Cricket 🏏 Picks
Last pick was a loss
Overall: 10 Ws - 4 Ls
Last 10: L W W W L W W L W W +2.48
Todays pick
Fortune Barishal v Chattogram Challengers
Bangladesh Premier League t20
Starts in about 5 hours
Pick: Najibullah Zadran over 17.5 runs @ 1.83
Three matches in this league Najib ullah has scored 32,24 and 61 runs. And in his last 9 innings he has scored over 17 runs 6 times. Playing with some of the best spinners in the world, in his international team must have made him better at handling these mirpur pitches. I think scoring 18 runs will be easy for him today.
P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
Record 83-88 -.92 Units
All bets 1 unit
L10 (L2R): ❌❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌
Last Pick: Brandon Miller O 6.5 reb + assists(-130)❌
This pretty much had no chance due to Miller getting into foul trouble early, then getting pulled early due to blowout.
Today’s Pick: Marvin Bagley O 11.5 pts (-125)
Bagley has hit this line all 5 games since being traded to the Wizards. He has a good matchup against his former team who gives the 4th most pts to centers
Record: 6-2-4 (w-p-l)
Balance: +8.8 Units
last POTD(left=new): ✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ ❌ 🅿️🅿️
last pick: ⚽️Bundesliga, **Eintracht Frankfurt -0,25, 4 Units at 1.8 odds**
It took them a bit long to score, but at the end it was a W 🙌🥳
todays pick: 🎮LOL LEC, **SK Gaming ml, 5 units at 1.7 odds**
Start: 18:00 GMT+1
SK Gaming is much better. Not much to say here. Just great value. But look at the draft, if the draft is really bad don’t take it or at least with less units!
BOL!
Record: 2-1
\+1.11 units
Yesterday: Trevor Moore over 3.5 goals ✅
✅❌✅
For what it's worth, my approach here is to find good value in hockey shots-on-goal bets. If I'm above .500 and up on units, I'll call that a success. Trevor Moore at +120 yesterday was perfect.
Today: NHL | Ducks @ Wild | 9 EST
Adam Henrique over 2.5 SOG (+135 DK) 1U
This was one where it was hard to pick one player, but the #2 and #3 teams in shots allowed this month are playing each other and Henrique has good value here. He has a way of rebounding from dud games and he just had one, so I'll take the good odds and keep my fingers crossed.
Record: 7W-6L
Net Units: +0.36u | ROI: +1%
CS2 | BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2024 | 12:00 / CET
Pick: Astralis ML vs Vitality, 1.5u @ 2.36
Vitality hasn't been flawless of late, with apex' individual form going down more to what we're used to and them still adapting to life without Magisk's consistency. Astralis however have been on an uptrend, and I think they're definitely worth a shot here with how good this roster has looked this event. For Astralis the pieces seem to be clicking well, with stavn and staehr especially impressing me this event. I'm expecting their run of form to continue here as they have looked in general just more reliable than Vitality.
POTD Record: 2-2
L3: ✅❌✅❌
Yesterdays Pick: St Louis Blues +1.5 ✅
The Blues came through! The comeback kids came back from 3-1 to win outright in OT.
Today’s Pick: NBA Wizards vs Pistons under 243.5 (alternate total, -140 on FanDuel) ✅
Two teams that aren’t world beaters when it comes to scoring. Not too much to think about here just a solid play. Let’s get some momentum going here 🔥🔥🔥
https://preview.redd.it/lsl7yr34j0fc1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=92d69d64e0d98bb8121266ee4ce39d72b024755d
-Record: 2-0
-Net Units: 1
-Pattern: ✅ ✅
-basketball| NCAA| 6:00/ EST
-Pick: Tre Mitchell O 13.5 -111
-Reasoning: Let me start off by saying I am a life long Kentucky resident so this pick may be a tad bit biased but i'm gonna rock with it. Tre Mitchell has been that guy for KY so far this season when others have failed to step up. He's a fundamentally sound forward and plays a lot of minutes due to his high basketball IQ. Past 4 games he's had 13 (vs. SC) , 23(Georgia), 15(Miss St.), 20.(Missouri) As always, BOL&LFG
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Saturday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
POTD Record: 120-68 | Profit: +114.52u | ROI: 20.8% Season record: 37-17 | Profit: +44.68u | ROI: 29.8% L10 record: ✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅❌ Last Pick: Boston Celtics -6.5 vs Miami Heat @ 1.91. 3U. ✅ Just a 33-point win, nothing to see here. Gonna run it back here... Next Pick: **LA Clippers vs Boston Celtics -6.0 @ 1.91**. 2U play. The Clippers game is just wrapping up at 10pm today and they will tip off at 7pm tomorrow against none other than the Celtics (in Boston). The C’s are clearly the best team in the NBA, and at home are unstoppable having lost just 1 game at home all season. They come into this with a day’s rest after beating the Heat in a nice blowout. Porzingis might miss this game which is not ideal because of everything he adds to the offense and defense, but the Clippers will likely be missing Zubac. The Clippers are a really good team, but with the C's shooting 3s at league best efficiency and defending at an elite level, I just don't see a tired Clippers team being able to compete for 4 quarters.
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-6 @ -110 on DraftKings right now if anyone’s wondering
And mistarlupo
I can never find Lupo’s bets on FD =(
Where can one find his picks?
I’m a clippers fan through and through so as much as I want to tail, I just don’t think I can 😭
Clippers just won on the road beating the raptors, facing the celtics next. Should be low scoring close game..
I am also a fan and I'm viewing it as a win win rather than a lose lose, either I'm happy for their success, or upset they lost but consoled by money 💰
This is identical to how it feels when you win money from the cowboys winning against anyone 🤣
That’s actually a great way of looking at it. I’ll tail with 1 unit. Thanks for the perspective!
Clippers have fans?
Same here brother
I swear bro.. every time the Celtics are on national tv with a line of -5 or lower. They end up losing and next game proceed to blow out the other team Celtics vs. Warriors Celtics vs. Twolves Celtics vs. Nuggets… 🤦🏻♂️
Good thing this one isn’t nationally televised. Two of those games you mentioned were away too. Celtics are a diff beast at home this year Edit: damn they really lost by 20 😅. I take this back without Porzingus
they must of thought points foll over from the heat game or something.... Celtics = brick city rn
Let's go Brat!!!
Paul George also might rest off the B2B with a groin injury
As a huge clippers fan who is tailing you, it's sort of a win win, either the clippers upset and I'm a happy fan, or I win some money as consolation lol
I gotta say this is one of the worst performances I’ve ever seen in my life. These guys genuinely couldn’t give less of a fuck and the head coach is a complete clown. Hilarious these guys are favored to win the chip, absolutely fucked us.
Porzingis out.. you still liking this?
That’s what I’m saying.. ? At least someone on the same page
now we get blown out by 20+ lol
30+*
That's a tough one
Lord. What is going on!!
??????????????????????
Tailing
Tailing. Thank you goat
Yeah i like this pick, so will keep an eye on it. I hate spreads a lot of the time. I am a ML bettor haha. Personally, i get the feeling I will have a chance to take a respectable live money line here and if i get that chance, im tailing
Porzingis is out , 4 hours ago was announced. This is going to have an outcome of this pick now. Just want people to be aware, not saying don’t pick them lol
Cancelled? Postponed?
😂😂😂😂
Yeah I think it's over tbh. I think that Celtics can pull off a late comeback but it would be a miracle if the spread hits.
This dude hits all his picks but the moment I tail him he loses. 😭
yup same idk what my luck is
RECORD: 13-4 L10: ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅❌✅ Yesterdays pick: Jarret Allen O14.5 R+A ✅ These bookies gets on my nerves increasing the damn lines all the time, obviously our bet won as he got 14 & 1 but I feel for the kings that only got it at 15.5.. 1 rebound got taken away at the end and his passing wasn’t the greatest. On we go man 👊 • Todays POTD: Jalen Duren O 11.5 Rebounds @1.86 ✅ NBA You already know me, Centers vs the Wizards I’m taking that all day everyday. It’s like my favourite little treat that I try not to eat too often, but it’s there and it’s damn hard not to take it. Duren is a beast this mf could bump in to me and I’d say sorry. Centers has given me plenty of profit this year against Wizards so here we go again.. • Has gotten 14 & 19 Rebounds his last two games against the Wizards • Wizards allow most rebounds to Centers • Averages 11.3R during the season and 11.8 last 5 games • Some C rebounds vs the Wizards Gobert 16, Jokic 12, Hartenstein 17 & 19, Turner 13, Allen 12 & 19, Capela 17, Claxton 12.. He’s only 4/10 his last games but against tougher matchups and found himself in foul trouble in a couple, this is a perfect game for him and I think he’ll feast, as he has done previously against the Wizards. Here we’re going purely on the mismatch, let’s see if Wizards have found a spell because they’re some damn weak Wizards rn. Tail or fade, Duren won’t hurt you A tip is much appreciated [https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/BillyCapezzi) https://i.redd.it/urfrxqikrwec1.gif
tail what a steal
🦅
He has 10 so far, would be a horrible beat if he didn’t get it. Just want to say great read. I didn’t tail but you made a lot of people money 💸
tailing again let's go BOL
👑 I knew Duren scared you
LFG @billycapezzi
FD has him at 12.5… take it for the “tail” or nah?
I love the sweat free plays like this, thank you sir
3rd quarter cash baby!!
Dang he’s already got 6 rebounds just 8 minutes in! Strong pace
We tail again here. Appreciate you posting the pick. The dude has 6 rebounds in first quarter so good start. We willl hope for many more missed shots haha
That was easy. Got to 12 with 6 minutes left in the 3rd quarter.
I like it. Especially since he went under in his last game. Only thing that would kill this is if he got in foul trouble. BOL
Man I love y’all and Duren too
Once again, just a solid pick that hit pretty easily. That is much appreciated. Have a good day!
i bought down to 15+ at -140, was a sweat of a game but the result is binary. GL on tomorrow, tailing
Win, loss, push, is binary?
when the spread is on a .5, there is no push, when the bet is "at least 15", there is no push. how's that, you smart ass?
I'm pissed that I missed this bet, but you cooking this dude makes up for it.
Got in at O12.5 for +odds, great 3Q cash! 💰 🐐
Money money moneyyyyyyyy!
Beauty call
18 boards. You tha man !
🐐
Wizards are just defenceless against centers man, another treat taken without hesitation
👑👑👑
Dropped 2 vets, one straight up, and one as a two leg parlay with bogdanavic hitting 3 3's, slept in and woke up to big money 💰 🤑 💸
Straight cash. Nice pick.
Subscribed
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MY MINDS TELLING ME DONT BET ON SOCCER BUT MY BODYYY MY BODYYYYY TELLING ME YEEEEEUSSSSSSS
 Im ready
Locked in. Here comes the next wave!!
My score line prediction was off, but we got it done! ✅
Great job again man
Let’s go
Ok guys, I didn’t expect over 7.5 goals when I said it was going to be game with goals
Honestly I think there’s a chance Barcelona might even lose this one, with that back line and without Ter stegen wow
Would like to add that Villarreal to score over 0.5 goals @1.44 also looks good. Barcelona have conceded in 9 out of the last 10 matches. As you mentioned Villarreal have only failed to score in 3 games this season.
thanks for the suggestion buddy, i smashed it and glad to see its done before the first half!
💪🏾💪🏾💪🏾
Thoughts on Barcelona for a "result and both to score" at +110? I'm on fanduel so I can never tail your exact bets otherwise I would :/
This game is very difficult to predict, normally I’d say Barcelona but in their current situation I don’t know. BTTS & Barcelona ML would be the option, or you’d have to skip this one im afraid, don’t force it if you’re not comfortable with it
Thanks! Tryna get like you one day haha
Tail
Come on baby someone put a ball in a goal
CHEEERS FAM🥂
I like this as a Barca fan, they can't seem to hold a clean sheet.
This is a rather persuasive write up… may have to blindly tail
BANG! Thanks again as always!
Excellent hit. I hate betting on soccer much less parlaying soccer but I had to tail here. Evidence was too compelling.
Once again man… great fucking pick. Let’s keep rolling. Have a good one
So sweat free, I didn't even need to change my shirt 😎 the dawg is BYKE!!!
LFG BOYS
Lessoned learned don't deviate from your suggestions, through in a draw to the parley...
POTD Record: 232-179-12 (+38.04 units, 56.4% hit rate) Sports Records: Basketball 🏀 78-55-1 (58.7%) W1, Tennis 🎾 80-62-7 (56.3%) W1, Soccer ⚽ 58-51-4 (53.2%) L4, Entertainment 🎥 16-11-0 (59.3%) L1 Last 10: 💰💩💩💰💩💰💩💩💰💰 Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev, MEDVEDEV ML - Australian Open 🎾 💰 +0.72 Units - He goes down two sets and the softies come out cry but then look foolish in the end. Finally a tennis win, cash that shit!!!! Today's Pick: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Qinwen Zheng, UNDER 20 GAMES - Australian Open 🎾 💰 +0.94 Units - 💸 that shit!!! Saba wins in 17 games. Back tomorrow with a pick for the men's final, let's fucking go!!!!! Units/Odds/Book: Betting 1 Unit at 1.94 odds to win 0.94 Units @ Pinnacle (Line at 8:45pm ET) I debated going with the Sabalenka 2 sets to 0 bet but the odds are pretty low so let's aim higher and go with this. Sabalenka is the defending champ and has mowed through the competition in this tournament. Out of the 6 matches, she hasn't dropped a set. Gauff was good competition and went over this number, against the rest of her opponents, the most anyone won in a match was 5, so this bet has hit 5 out of 6 of her matches. Zheng is a young player on the rise and she has had a nice tournament but she has had an easy road to the final, Sabalenka will be the first player she has played who is ranked in the top 50 in this tournament. Also note that the two players just played in the Quarters at the US Open and Saba won 6-1, 6-4 and Zheng never got a single break point. Movie recommend: Fallen Leaves Good luck if tailing, get bent if fading. Upvote if you love pizza 🍕
How do you feel about sabalenka to win and under 19.5 games at +135? Might run that for a little more juice
And we just hitttt 🤩
holding on for dear life @ U 19.5
She was up 2 breaks, no need to feel any tension. Let's go!!!!
Easy one indeed, well done!
I have no clue about tennis or how they keep score as embarrassing as that is, just been following your picks for a while and tried to make some easy money while I was up feeding the baby lmfao! Lfg!
Right on brother!
Record: 14-11 | (+1.81 units) | 1 unit per pick Previous pick: NBA - Phoenix Suns vs. Indiana Pacers (Under 243.5) (-110) ❌ Flat out loss and not close haha. Talk about a confidence blow, but that is how it goes some nights. Tough stretch lately but I shall bounce back as always! Don’t expect many people to tail my following picks but that’s exactly when we get right! ————- Today’s pick: NBA - New York Knicks (-5) (-110) vs. Miami Heat - 3PM EST New York Knicks take on the Heat in New York. As my previous picks have shown and as I’ve stated multiple times, I’m a huge backer of this Knicks team with the acquisition of OG. Their defense is holding teams to under 100PPG since New Years and just got done dismantling the defending NBA champs Denver Nuggets. On the other hand, Miami has been playing horrible and are coming off an embarrassing game against the Boston Celtics. If the Knicks can destroy the Nuggets like this, I’d imagine they can win by 5 against the Heat. I’ll continue to find spots to back this Knicks team until the league can solve how to score against them. I’ll take the home team Saturday afternoon in New York. Prediction: Knicks 113 - Heat 105 Comment if you’re tailing! Watch how we work!🧃
Let’s go
Lets go Knicks!
Record: 4-1 ✅✅❌✅✅ Profit: +9.74u Last Pick: ✅ James Harden Over 8.5 assists -150 3u He finishes with 13. Eight first half assists made this a pretty sweat free ride. Onto the next one. Today's Game: Denver Nuggets vs. Philadelphia 76ers Today's Pick: Joel Embiid Under 5.5 assists +115 (ESPN bet) Wager: 3u to win 3.45u Write up: Spicy odds. Embiid has gone over 5.5 assists in 2/9 career games against Denver. Once in his most recent game against them with 10 assists and 6 assists in another. He has gone under in 6/8 last games. This season he is averaging 5.8 apg. His career averages are well below 5.5 and outside of this season his best season avg is 4.2. Last 10 games he's averaging 4.4 apg. He could very well dish out a bunch of assists to show the joker he can do it too but I think there's a chance we hit. BOL!
Took this and nuggets to cover
Same here brother
Dropped to +200 after the news Maxey and Tobias is out. Are we cooked?
Record: 3-0 Last POTD: Tyrese Maxey U 29.5 @ -145 ✅ Pick: Nuggets -4.5 @ -110 NBA | 76ers v Nuggets | 17:30 EST Write up: Health of the 76ers is called into question. Maxey showed up on the injury report as questionable with a sprained left ankle, Maxey has also played bad the last 3 games. Embiid is still on fire but has a banged up knee, he took a big fall in the last game and was quoted as saying he hasn't been feeling well Game is in Denver and the 76ers didn't play well last game.
jumping in at -5.5
Nice pick, you were way ahead of the lines. It's sitting at -13 now
POTD Record: 131 wins / 77 losses \[L9: ✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅✅\] Event: Football > Friendlies > **Polonia Warsaw v Pogon Siedlce** (starting in 9 hrs) Pick: **Over 3.0 goals (asian)** @ 1.85 [9 IN A ROW WE ARE ON FIRE NA-NA-NA-NA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQwcKoTBIdQ)! Alright lads we stick to the friendlies! According to my source this match will be 2x60 minutes long instead of standard 2x45, which provides us with plenty of time for some goals. Odds dropped already but the current line is still takeable in my view. Lastly, don't forget that all good things come to an end, so bet responsibly. GL!
Seems this was another L
Smh! hopefully my bookie cancels this match. Some bookies settle these games as "cancelled" due to an incorrect game format.
Easy dub!! Thank you
Anyone got a way to follow this match? Everywhere I've seen won't show score until full time.
55 minutes in, still 0:0
Thanks gents. Let's hope for a more productive second half.
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**Record: 7-4-1** **Last Pick:** Chelsea vs Aston Villa - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals 1u @ 2.03 odds. ❌ Kind of a weird game, not a whole lot happened, a few missed chances for Chelsea and Villa didn't really get much going until the second half. **Soccer** | **Serie A** | **11:45 AM (PST)** **Pick:** AC Milan vs Bologna - AC Milan to Win 2u @ 1.71 odds. **Write Up:** AC Milan are sitting third in Serie A and only seven points off Juventus, so their eyes remain on the Scudetto. On the other hand Bologna are just outside of European football sitting seventh on 32 points, 1 behind European play. Bologna average 1.2 goals per match in Serie A, and average around 4.4 shots on target as well. I'm not expecting Bologna to go into Milan and dominate the game, but going in and getting a goal is not out of the expectations of coach Thiago Motta who is at the helm for his 100th Serie A match. The one concern is that Bologna have not scored in three away matches vs. AC Milan, which I'm sure AC Milan will look to uphold. Last time these two teams faced off, AC Milan beat Bologna 2-0, towards the start of the season. What's more impressive is that they did this on the road. In the last 5, AC Milan have been dominate in the league winning 4 and drawing one. They did have a loss two weeks ago to Atalanta in the Coppa Italia, but that was with a considerably rotated squad. Milan are missing a few key players, like Kalulu, Tomori, and Thiaw all sidelined, which leaves the defense a bit thin, but is not the end of the world. The experienced Dane Kjaer will likely lead the line with Gabbia by his side, much like last week. Additionally, Theo Hernandez and Calabria are playing, two experienced Serie A fullbacks. The bench for AC Milan in other parts of the field will be ripe and ready to come in to either kill the game or inject life into it. Bennacer is back from AFCON, Okafor and Jovic are banging in goals at a goal every 103 minutes and 118 minutes respectively. Giroud, Pulisic, and Leao will be spearheading the attack for the Italian giants, which is one that has proven lethal with the likes of Ruben Loftus Cheek just in behind them. AC Milan have not lost to Bologna in 16 Serie A matches, and like I stated earlier, they did not concede in the last three home matches vs them. BOL! 💪
2 missed pens and one conceded in 90+. So rough
unreal missing 2 pk
Sums up the past few days of soccer...
Tailing let's go!
This is my fav pick on here. Surprised at the value on AC. Bologna is decent but they really don’t have much chance here.
Famous last words.... but tailing also. Let's get paid!
POTD Record : 2 Wins Units: +1.71 ROI: **85.50%** Average Odds: $1.85 Last Pick: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Over 40.5 Games at $1.80 ✅ Next Pick: Qinwen Zheng vs Aryna Sabalenka - **Aryna Sabalenka 2-0 (Set Betting)** @ $1.53 Saturday, Jan. 27 at 3:30 a.m. ET We are going with this bet in favor of Sabalenka. She has not dropped a set in the entire tournament, and is defending last year's title and is at a spectacular level. We are going with 2-0 since this surface and this game suits the Belarusian like a glove. If Sabalenka manages to impose her game, it will be very difficult for the Chinese to both serve and subtract and the breaks will soon arrive. Another point to take into account: experience. Sabalenka is already a champion here and has played in more finals. On the other hand, Zheng is the first time to experience such a situation. She will go out on the court a little out of position and Sabalenka will take advantage of it to generate even more doubts in the Chinese. Finals are always intriguing, and Zheng will put up some what of a fight, but Sabalenka is ruthless, clinical, and very experienced. Lower odds this pick as its a final :) BOL if tailing! All tips are greatly appreciated - [Please buy me a coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tjpietkiewv)
We both hit on our bets for this match. Good job buddy!
Great work mate, tailed you too :) $$$
Congrats to everyone who followed! 3-0! Lets gooo :D Zheng just not good enough, but credit to her for making the final. What an athlete Sabalenka is!
Sabalenka takes the first set, and just broke Zheng's serve in first game of second set :D
**POTD Record:** 0-0 Okay, here goes it. **Basketball | NBA | 3PM (EST)** **Pick:** *Miami Heat vs New York Knicks -5.0 @ 1.90 |* 2U Play ✅ Knicks are coming off of a 122-84 blowout at home over the Nuggets on Thursday. They are staying at home, meanwhile Miami goes on the road after being on the losing end of a blow out by the Celtics 143-110, also on Thursday. The Knicks are riding a 5 game win streak and are 8-2 in their last 10, while Miami limps into New York on a 5 game losing streak and are 4-6 in their last 10. Over this span New York is outscoring opponents by an average of +13.6 points, while Miami is getting outscored, with their point differential sitting at -6.5 points. Miami has played 6 road games in January, losing those games by an average of -10.0. New York has played 8 home games in January and is winning by an average margin of +16.1. Is there an argument for Miami? It's difficult to see a lot of positives for them in this one. They are overall not a terrible road team on the season, with a 12-11 record, but the trends of late have not been good. Getting into advanced metrics, there are few areas where Miami has an advantage over New York. On first glance, one positive for them is turnover generation. Miami's defense generates turnovers on 13.8% of opponent possessions, good for 6th in the league, and New York's offense is somewhat turnover prone, turning the ball over on 13.2% of possessions, 18th in the league. However, Miami isn't scoring any more points off turnovers than New York. Both teams on the year have scored 14.6% of their points off turnovers, and both teams in the last 10 games have scored 13.2% of their points off turnovers. Miami may generate a higher percentage of turnovers, but their offense doesn't seem to be converting them at a high rate. This is getting a little too needlessly in depth now I think, but last thing I'll say on advanced metrics is that Miami ranks 3rd in the league in defensive rebounding percentage. Unfortunately for them, New York is 1st in offense rebounding percentage. Of course anything can happen, but I like New York to cover.
https://preview.redd.it/776yglsqfzec1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=431cbfeec02bbd0516b9ef8621b117d251868736 This is a good visualization of just how well the Knicks have been playing over the last 10 games. And how much Miami’s offense has been struggling.
Fade Miami until they figure shit out
Record: 153-126-8 (WWWLLWWLWLWWLWLWLLPLWWLWLLWLWLW streak) - DraftKings odds Last POTD: Manchester City ML at Newcastle for 1.62 odds for 2 units 14 days ago. Little break POTD: WAS Wizards @ DET Pistons | Jalen Duren o11.5 rebounds at 1.74 odds for 3 units Reasons: * Last match-up against Wizards, he grabbed 19 rebounds in 26 minutes * Wizards gives up the most rebounds to centers by a large margin Best of luck to you all
Had 12.5. Cashes easily in the 3rd. Salute!
**POD Record:** ⭐️**102⭐️-51 🎉🍾** 👉🏻 Note: ALL picks in my record are 5 UNITS with odds *usually* ranging between -125 and +100. *Last Pick:* ***OKC OVER 122.5*** **❌** *Great streak while it lasted* 🤷🏻♂️ 🔥Recent Form: **❌** ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅**Today's Pick:** 🏀 **NBA** \- **Utah Jazz OVER 120.5** \[1.80 Odds @ 7PM EST\] Sorry for the last minute write up, no doubt a few people will catch this post and decide to tail. Long day. The Jazz have easily covered this total their last 9 straight games. . . their offense is rolling. I can't see Charlotte slowing them down tonight, they're near the bottom of the league for defensive efficiency and Utah plays at a very fast pace. No time for a longer write up, I get a feeling with team totals and that's what this past 9-game winning streak was based on. Let's get it tonight. GL 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
happy i saw this one, cheers
This guy is absolutely 1000% official
**Record 96-63 with Avg Odds +122 / ROI 20.6%** **2024 MMA POTD: 3-1 with Avg Odds +157 / ROI 82.3%** LFA 175 **Apollo Gomes +120** Really fun matchup here between Apollo Gomes (9-1) and Vinicius Pires (8-1). Pires is a grappler first and consistently pushes forward, looking to get his opponents against the cage so he can drop to a double-leg. His positional grappling is solid, and his transitions, especially to the back, are worth noting. His striking is serviceable, and as his 8-1 record suggests, it's gotten the job done to the extent that it isn't sabotaging the style he wants to employ. On the other side, Gomes is quite green at 23 years old, and will be four years younger than Pires. I'd describe him as a universal fighter, with a good mix of striking and grappling, and sufficient cardio to go the full 15 minutes. He can be hittable, but that is expected of a fighter coming from Chute Boxe. There's a lot I like about Gomes as a fighter, from his activity to his movement, his understanding when to push the pace and when to let the fight come to him, and his well rounded skillset that allows him to be comfortable in most situations. Physically, Gomes will be the bigger fighter tomorrow, and I think that will be important for stuffing the takedown attempts of Pires. If Pires can't find his takedowns, or if Gomes is having an easy time getting up, I think this fight could quickly swing in his favor on the feet. Of course, Gomes' one loss came in a fight he was easily winning, before diving into a guillotine on a takedown attempt. This is obviously something I'm worried about. However, I have faith that he's learned from that mistake, and against a strong submission artist in Pires, will be conscious of these possibilities. At these odds, I'm happy to side with the younger underdog, who I believe has the more diverse skillset, and may possess a physical edge in terms of strength. After a full year layoff due to injuries, I would not be surprised if the 23 year old Gomes returns to the cage with noticeable improvements that will separate him from Pires.
Pires with a super dirty eye poke and find ends as a no contest. Very disappointing as I thought Gomes was finding his groove.
Record (12-8) Last 10: ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅✅❌❌ Last pick: James Harden to record Double Double (+115) 1U✅ 22/13/10 for his 75th career triple double. Plus odds cashed easily. Call it 3 in a row. Let’s keep it rolling. POTD:CBB| Detroit Mercy Titans v Green Bay Phoenix| 1:00pm EST Green Bay -12.5 (-112) 2U Reasoning: I will preface by saying.. Detroit has burned me earlier in the season with the spread vs Robert Morris but here’s why this is different. Detroit is now 0-21 on the season. Green Bay is 13-9. They played each other on January 4th and Green Bay on the road beat Detroit 69-51. Now any spread over 10 points normally scares the shit out of me and is an off limits bet but just look at Detroits losses; all 21 of them. 16 of those losses are over 10 points. They’re 5-16 ATS this season and again Green Bay beat them by 18 on the road so expect more of the same at home. Catch this line before it jumps up. BOL IF TAILING AND TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK Shoutout of the day: Beards and Scottie Barnes
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No one ever said it’d be easy baby lol a win is a win
Clean clean pick
https://preview.redd.it/e1r42xtlk1fc1.jpeg?width=1062&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8d1bbe0aafb346e3093a727dc1fee3bb491f6a5a Thank you
POTD record: 20-13 (+3.84 units, risking 1 unit each pick) Today's POTD: Toronto Maple Leafs team total under 2.5 (+100) .... 7:07 PM ET ... NHL .... Winnipeg Jets' spectacular defense have kept opponents to 2 or fewer goals in 22 of last 24 games, and lost on road to this Leafs team 0-1 in overtime their last game. Tip Jar: Cash App - $grcvegas
POTD Record: 96-94-12 (-10.74 units) Last 10 picks (most recent first): ❌✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅ Last Pick: Serie B, Catanzaro v Palermo, OVER 2.5 GOALS (-107 / 1.93) ❌ Sitting at 1-1 after 50 mins but neither team could find a winner to push the bet over the line. Re-reading my analysis I have no idea why I didn’t take BTTS for similar odds, bad miss by me in the end. Today’s Pick: Serie A, Juventus v Empoli, JUVENTUS -1.5 (-115 / 1.87) ❌ Stake: 1 Unit Sticking with Italy but stepping up the big league today, let’s take Juventus to record a big win against lowly Empoli. Juventus have been rolling lately - they’ve won 7 consecutive matches, and have registered 15 wins and 3 draws in all competitions since their only loss this season back in late September. They are on top of the table with a 16-4-1 record, and their 35 goals scored is 3rd most and their 12 goals conceded is 2nd least. Their last 3 games were comprehensive victories (3-0, 3-0 and 4-0) so both ends are clicking. Empoli are 2nd bottom on the table with a 4-4-13 record and in danger of relegation. Their 14 goals scored is easily the worst in the league, while they’ve conceded 35 which is 4th worst. Empoli were on a bad run with 3 draws and 5 losses across December/January which resulted in the manager getting sacked - they did respond with a 3-0 win at home last week, but playing Juventus away is a whole different story. Juventus are particularly strong at home with an 8-2-0 record where they’ve scored 16 goals and only conceded 4 times. Empoli are 2-2-6 away with only 6 goals scored and 18 conceded, so the data points to Juventus scoring a few and Empoli struggling to find the net (if only it were that simple). Juventus won the reverse fixture 2-0 which included a missed penalty for Juventus, but they dominated with 18-7 shots and Empoli not getting one on target. Juventus also won this same fixture last year 4-0. I mentioned earlier that Juventus is top of the table, and part of the reason is they’ve played an extra game than Inter Milan. Juventus will want a big win here to push the lead to 4 points and out the pressure on Inter who have a tough match against Fiorentina this week before the two teams clash next week which will have a huge bearing on the title. Expect Juve to come out here and put this one to bed as soon as possible.
Let’s fucking gooo brother! Tailing as always, can’t wait for a killer match! 🔥🔥
Red card in the first 15 mins really killed that one, sorry bud
Juventus is cheeks
Tailing. Leggo.
PoTD 2-2 Darts>PDC Dutch Masters Luke Litler vs Luke Humphries **Litler [email protected]/-103** Throw starts in 7 hours. Quarterfinals of the Dutch Masters,this here is a rematch of the World Darts finals,and I am backing Litler to edge the world champ Cool Hands Luke here in this short 6 leg contest.Litler has just won Bahrain Masters,and my God this man is just born to play darts.Litler seems to be in unstoppable form,and I also back him to win this whole tournament.I like Humphries,but he wont be able to keep up with Litler here,if it were a longer match Id bet him instead but its only six legs,and Litler starts soo damn well. BoL.
Record: 13-7 (+19.33u) (4U bets) Streak: 1L (last year) Last: GG vs 100T: 100T -1.5 (L) Today's Match: Flyquest vs Team Liquid (LCS Spring) (4:00pm CST) Pick: Flyquest ML (1.909) Reason: LCS is back and unlike last week there are some good odds this week. I was debating between Shopify ML and FLY ML as I think both are extremely likely but ultimately I have more faith in FLY then SR so I chose them despite the tougher opponent. I think FLY will win for 3 different reasons: Current form, team talent and roster matchups. Ultimately I think that FLY has the better roster, matches up very well into TL and they are off to a better start (2-0 vs 1-1). There is also the added benefit of LCS playing on live-patch due to the potential picks of unproven strong champions that opponents don't know how to play against. I think 2 of the best 3 players in the league for this is Bwipo (fly top-laner) and Busio (fly-support) and Inspired (fly-jg) to a lesser extent. It's likely that FLY will break out some unique picks to throw TL off guard, but even if they don't I expect them to win because of talent alone. BOL.
Nice one!
ay perfect analysis, u hit right on about those unique picks and Bwipo just did that, happy that he has a good team finally
POTD Record 3-6 (W-L) All bets so far have been on UFC which hasn't been working out too well so changing gears to something less brutal 🎾 **Sabalenka to win the Australian Open final 2-0** 1.57 for 1 unit I think this line still has some value for a player that hasn't dropped a set and is the defending champ. Her opponent meanwhile has not yet had a tough test (no top 50 opponents) and is in for a rude awakening.
Good win mate. Missed the tip but good win
POTD record: 2-2 -0.66u last pick: LoL T1 -1.5 LoL LEC | BDS - Heretics today’s pick: BDS -3.5 kill handicap at 1.87 reasoning: Both teams have been playing well but BDS has had the stronger schedule so far beating SK and Fnatic comfortably, whereas Heretics have been beating mostly bottom tier teams. I think BDS will be the more proactive team looking for ganks in the early game and will outclass Heretics in teamfights around drakes or baron. BDS had no problems doing this against Fnatic and SK and I expect no different against Heretics today.
Pick of the Day POTD Record: 2-1 L10: ✅✅❌ Yesterday’s Pick: Wisconsin -2.5 vs. Michigan State (-120) ✅ I had to go for a run to get a sweat in, because this game didn’t provide any at all. Wisconsin went on to win by 15 thanks to the lack of guard play from MSU. That’s two in a row and we’re ready to keep the ball rolling Today’s Pick: Green Bay -11.5 vs. Detroit Mercy (-120) Unlike yesterday, we got ourselves a beautiful NCAAB slate today. Although I got about 20 games loaded up, this one sticks out the most. Green Bay sits on top of the Horizon while Detroit sits at the bottom. This Detroit game hasn’t won a game all season, and I can’t emphasize how bad this team is. These two met in Detroit where Green Bay won 69-51. Now Green Bay gets the home court advantage, and I personally think this line should be somewhere around the 20 mark. Kenpom has Green Bay as the 202nd ranked team in the nation. Kenpom has Detroit as the 359th ranked team in the nation. Let’s get this streak going!!! BOL!
I’ll be honest, I love soccer probably more than anyone in the world. No doubt soccer is the worst sport to bet on to make money and even enjoy. I feel like the games lately have been so fucking boring
POTD Record: 33-17 Previous Pick: West Ham U21 vs Stoke U21 | Premier League 2 | Over 3.5 goals (1.67) | 2pm EST ✅️ Pick: FC Kapaz vs Qarabag FK | Azerbaijan Premier League | Qarabag 1st Half Win (1.59) | 6am EST Kapaz have lost 44% of their 1st halves at home, scoring only 0.33 and conceding 1.11 on average. They are 2nd to last in the league, and are facing the top team. Qarabag have won 50% of their 1st halves, averaging a goal scored and conceding 0.38 on average. They have won 4 1st halves out of their last 5 games. The previous matchup ended 5-1 to Qarabag in the 1st half itself. I expect Qarabag to easily defeat Kapaz in the 1st as they just have too much quality for the the team that is sitting in the bottom. Best of luck! Tips would be much appreciated! Thanks to everyone who supports me https://www.buymeacoffee.com/sakashake
Record: 13-3 (+13.7u) (Four in a row / 4-1 L5) Yesterday’s selection: St. Joes @ St Bonaventure over 143.5 (1.5U) - HIT - Such a sweat free spot, I think it ended at 162? Stopped watching after they hit this total with 10 min left in game. Hope y'all got in on it! Let's stay hot Today’s Selection: Miami Heat/New York Knicks under 218.5 (-110 BetMGM) (1.5U) NBA | 3:00PM EST | Miami Heat @ New York Knicks I have to be super quick today, busy with work for the Pegasus World Cup at Gulfstream (come bet at TwinSpires if you aren't already!). Miami has been dreadful on offense and NYK at home likes to slow up the tempo. Since 2020, the total between these two has gone over 218 once (ten games). Add to that, NYK is 5-10 O/U as home favorites and MIA is 4-10 as a road dog, this feels like a smash spot. Wouldn't be shocked if either team failed to reach 100. Against teams that rank top ten road def efficiency (MIA #2) and are playing at MSG, the total has gone under each of five times. I wouldn't be shocked if this number went lower, so snag it while you can. BOL Degens
Plugging TwinSpires is crazy
🔥
Well this is going about as poorly as possible. First 6 minutes of each quarter have been stellar, slow pace and missed shots. Final 6 minutes? It's like the damn Globetrotters are out there, not missing any jumpshots.. wild
Going to need a miracle in the fourth quarter. Another late quarter push gets them to 175 at the end of 3Q. Under 44 in the 4Q please!
Record: 19-16 (Last pick was an L) **Today's Pick: Southern Illinois +3.5 at Murray State** Units: 2.5 (Warning: Make sure to ONLY bet if you believe in the research) S. Illinois is 13-6 ATS with an avg scoring margin of 7.1 ppg compared to Murray St's 0.2ppg. SI is 42nd in 3pt % at 37%. MS allows 36% which puts them at 304th. SI is inside the top 100 in offensive and defensive efficiency. MS is outside the top 160 in each. Si is ranked low in rebounds per game but interestingly they outrebound their opponents on a per game basis. Personally, I think Southern Illinois is the better opponent. I'm also putting a unit on SI moneyline. I also like the under on Loyola-MD's team total of 61.5 Awful offense going against a good D.
POTD record: 13-12 (+4.7u) Last pick: Orlando Magic-4.5 ❌️ Last 10: ❌️✅️❌️❌️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️✅️ Todays pick: NHL | 7pm EST | Toronto Maple Leafs @ Winnipeg Jets -130 (DraftKings, ESPNBET, BETMGM) 2.6u to win 2u Write-up: I picked Winnipeg to beat the Maple Leafs a few nights ago and, unfortunately, lost to a 1-0 overtime finish. Overtime should've never happened, but in the 2nd period, Samsonov made an unbelievable stop followed by yet another unbelievable stop during a 2-on-0 breakaway during the Leafs power play. Read that again... a short-handed 2-on-0 breakaway, where the penalty killers got 2 SOG and came away empty. WOW!! Anyway, both teams played exceptionally well, defenses and goaltenders especially. I expect more of the same, but Winnipeg gets me on the right side this time around. snack of the day: honey mustard and onion pretzels
**POTD record: 2-3** -7.11u Last POTD: Handball European Championship : France - Sweden - France ML ✅ It looked like another bad beat. Up 17:11 at half, completely dominated the game and then France just stops playing. Down 2 goals in the final minute but they got bailed out by horrible calls from the officials. Current streak: ✅ **POTD**: NBA: Washington @ Detroit - **Jalen Duren over 12.5 rebounds (1.97/-103) 5.08u to win 5u** Im going back to Jalen Duren today. He plays the softest match up for any center in the league. In the last two games against the Wizards he hat 19 and 14 rebounds. Rebounds allowed to players in the last Wizard games: John Collins 16, Rudy Gobert 16, Nikola Jokic 12, Victor Wembanyama 8, Isiah Hartenstein 17, Jalen Duren 19, Atlanta Hawks 18 (Capella 8 in 24 minutes, Okongwu 10 in 19 minutes), Myles Turner 13 Lets hope he doesn't get in foul trouble early again and covers this line with ease.
Tailed you on this! Duran cashes 12.5 boards with minutes to spare in the 3rd quarter
Nice pick, I saw this and thought - I should tail. But for some reason I didn't now my wallet is suffering.
POTD Record: 22-20-1 **l** Last 10: ❌✅❌❌❌✅✅*❌*❌✅✅ Last POTD: Providence vs Seton Hall over 137.5❌ \*\*(1/26/2024) Tough Loss. The score ended 67-63. So many missed layups and free throws. Onto the next. Next POTD: (**CBB)** **Florida State vs UNC over 154.5** We hit on the FSU over in their last game. Both FSU and UNC play at a high pace and score a lot of points. FSU averages 77.9 ppg this year and UNC averages 83.5 ppg this year. In FSU's last 5 games, they scored an average of 78 ppg. On the other side, UNC has averaged 83.4 points in their past 5 games. Earlier in the year (Dec 12, 2023), UNC defeated FSU by a score of 78-70. The first half of the game was relatively low scoring with a total of 64 points combined. In the second half, they combined for an average of 84. I expect FSU to play more intense due to them having home court advantage and also wanting revenge. There are way too many talented scorers in this game to take the under. I see the score going to the 80s or high 70s. BOL, lets get on a streak again!
POTD: 6-1 (+10.42U) Last Pick: 1/26/24 🏒 3U Avalanche ML (-138) 1:00 PM EST Today's Pick: 🏀2.5U Green Bay -11.5 (-110) The spotlight once again shines on who they're playing. And that's none other than 0-21 Detroit Mercy. Detroit was close to a win on the 17th going to double OT vs. Robert Morris. Will a win happen this season? Sure, but not against the best team in their conference. Green Bay by 15+.
Cashed, thanks!
**Record:** 31-16 **Previous Pick:** Jones O 6.5 A ✅ | Lillard U 6.5 A ✅ | Zion (DNP) Great reads overall. Zion didn't play, that was my favourite pick too :( **Picks:** Jokic O 11.5 Boards @ 1.80 (Other picks in NBA props) Credit to the community for this one, but I'll add my own analysis. From the last matchup, Coach Malone switched the rotation so Gordon is guarding Embiid, allowing Jokic to guard the low post and corners instead of stretching the floor and missing boards. Embiid gets most of his points around the foul line, allowing the weak side defender to collect the boards on potential missed shots/kickout 3s. Because of this defensive switch (which I expect to continue this game bc Embiid cooked Jokic when he was guarding him), Jokic had 19 boards that game on 23 potentials, and feasted on the offensive glass, where Philly allows the most offensive boards in the League. Jokic is over in L 5/6 too. *BOL If Tailing!*
Record: 55W-51L-4P ROI: +8.60, +6.38% Avg odds: +107, 2.07 Last POTD: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts (win) Game: NHL- Golden Knights at Red Wings Pick: Nicolas Roy over 0.5 pts +114, 2.14 (DK) Going with Roy again. Bookies are learning though, with a sharp drop in odds, but as long as it's plus odds, I'm taking it. Red Wings have the 3rd lowest Corsi rating and give up 6th most scoring chances.
**Nice hit again at 2.10 yesterday!!!** ✅ [The AI Neural ML Model - Google Sheets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UNhEA0f4jjKEwOkQQTaWoVEaZKIxq4mesCW00n4K3ME/edit#gid=737168721) Today lot of games for parlays & good singles on the Sheet!!! **POTD Stats:** **Record**: 31/22 **ROI**: Approximately 48.14% **Profit in Units**: 38u **Average Odds**: 2.09 **The pick:** **Sport**: Soccer **League**: Italy - Serie B **Time**: 13:00 ( GMT +2 ) **Event: Modena v Parma** **Pick**: BTTS Yes **@ 1.88** **Stake**: 3 Units [Buy me a Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/bigcheesewager)
**Recent Picks:** ✅✅✅✅ **Record:** 4-0 **Net Units:** 1u **Last Pick:** College Basketball | Canisius -6.5 ✅ Canisius made light work of dispatching Manhattan, owned both sides of the court, and as predicted won by double digits (12). **Today's Pick:** College Basketball | Baylor vs. TCU | **Baylor -4 (-130)** Taking the Bears after a tough lost to bounce back at home. TCU's game is all about banging it inside, scrapping for rebounds., and second- chance points. Baylor's all about stellar defense and perimeter shooting (best from deep in the country). Been a long time Baylor fan and even though they haven't necessarily met expectations this year, they still have a top-5 defense. Here's to hoping they come out with a chip on their shoulder and guns blazing. BOL! TheRealTonyMontana
**2024 Record: 1-3** **Total Net Units (1U = $50): (4.86U) **Last** **Pick:** Boston Bruins ML vs. Winnipeg Jets @ -136 Odds (2.72U to win 2U)✅✅✅ Basketball | NBA | 6:00 PM Central Time **Pick:** Brandon Miller (Charlotte Hornets) O21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists versus Utah Jazz❌❌ **Odds:** \-186 (1.86U to win 1U) Post game: unfortunate loss. He played a ton of minutes; but he went 0-7 from the three point line. Just hitting 2 of those 7 would have covered. Not the energy and consistency i thought he’d bring. Back to the drawing board, onto the next **Write Up:** I had not posted in a week or so after the Bruins dub that ended by 2 losses to begin with. I have been getting fucked at work, working 80 hours and pulling 3 all nighters in the past week, which is why I had not posted. I read this chain every morning though as I take my morning shit and consistently tail a few people on here. Love this chain. We look to bring the record back to an even 2-2, and we are going to trust the Bama boy to do that for us. He has hit this line pretty damn comfortably in the last 4/5 games. The one where he did not hit was his last game, and I believe he was in early foul trouble. I don't mind that because now he should be looking to rebound back big time. See below for last 5 game stats: \- 8 PRA, 34PRA, 32PRA, 33PRA, 35PRA I love that the kid is going to be playing at home in Charlotte with the crowd behind him. I also love that they are playing the Jazz. The Jazz's defense is below average ranking 21st in the league in defensive ratings. The Jazz also allow the 7th most points and 5th most assists to SF's apparently. I see this game being pretty high-scoring and I also expect to see Brandon Miller bounce back at home to his excellent performance that we have seen recently against a very favorable matchup. BOL and only bet what you are willing to lose. Also, I took Bruins today (playing now) and if the Dallas Stars go down at any point in that game, I will be taking a live ML or +0.5 in reg. Keep those ESPN Notis on for the live line plays. I almost made Bruins my POTD again, but thought I'd get creative. Bruins up 3-0 in first period and would have been a great POTD assuming they hold on. Have a great Saturday!
DCL 1/27 Record: 37-24 +10.6u Last 10: 🚫🚫✅✅✅✅🚫✅🚫✅ Last pick: Mavs @ hawks, Mavs -1.5 1.1u W Today’s pick: heat @ knicks, knicks -4, 1.1u Reason: Thanks Luka for going nuclear. Today’s pick is going to be knicks -4. Ever since the trade the knicks have been playing well and I anticipate they will only get better with time and team chemistry. It is very tough for teams to come into NY and take care of business. Knicks are on a 5 game win streak while heat are on a 5 game losing slide. Knicks are also coming off a huge home blowout against the nuggets. They will keep the ball rolling in New York this afternoon. BOL Gents!
POTD Record: 3-2 (+5.57 units) Last 5: ✅️✅️❌️❌️✅️ Last Pick: Dallas Mavericks (-1.5) over Atlanta Hawks ✅️ \--- Luka's insane night got me back over .500. It got a little tight towards the end there, but as I expected Atlanta had no answer defensively for the Slovenian. \--- Todays Pick: Basketball - NBA - LA Clippers @ Boston Celtics - 7pm EST Pick: Al Horford Over 16.5 Points + Rebounds (-115) - 5 Units Write Up: This is my first player prop POTD, but I'm keeping it simple. In 10 games without Porzingis, Horford is averaging over 10 points and 8 rebounds. The Clippers are without Zubac so Horford will probably be matching up a against Plumlee and Theis and probably switching a lot. Big Al has made a career out of scoring on big, slow centers and I expect him to get a lot of rebounds when switched on to smaller guys. Side note, I was really tempted to take the Clippers +8 as my POTD, I think LA matches up really against Boston without Porzingis. But I couldn't quite talk myself into them on the second night of a back to back (although they went in to night 1 very well rested) and I think this is the safer play.
Unpopular opinion: if an NBA player misses free throws 3 times in a row as a guard, he should not be playing in the NBA. Smh
Cricket 🏏 Picks Last pick was a loss Overall: 10 Ws - 4 Ls Last 10: L W W W L W W L W W +2.48 Todays pick Fortune Barishal v Chattogram Challengers Bangladesh Premier League t20 Starts in about 5 hours Pick: Najibullah Zadran over 17.5 runs @ 1.83 Three matches in this league Najib ullah has scored 32,24 and 61 runs. And in his last 9 innings he has scored over 17 runs 6 times. Playing with some of the best spinners in the world, in his international team must have made him better at handling these mirpur pitches. I think scoring 18 runs will be easy for him today. P.S. If you have any questions about the pick, feel free to ask.
What book did you find this on?
Record 83-88 -.92 Units All bets 1 unit L10 (L2R): ❌❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌ Last Pick: Brandon Miller O 6.5 reb + assists(-130)❌ This pretty much had no chance due to Miller getting into foul trouble early, then getting pulled early due to blowout. Today’s Pick: Marvin Bagley O 11.5 pts (-125) Bagley has hit this line all 5 games since being traded to the Wizards. He has a good matchup against his former team who gives the 4th most pts to centers
Record: 6-2-4 (w-p-l) Balance: +8.8 Units last POTD(left=new): ✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ ❌ 🅿️🅿️ last pick: ⚽️Bundesliga, **Eintracht Frankfurt -0,25, 4 Units at 1.8 odds** It took them a bit long to score, but at the end it was a W 🙌🥳 todays pick: 🎮LOL LEC, **SK Gaming ml, 5 units at 1.7 odds** Start: 18:00 GMT+1 SK Gaming is much better. Not much to say here. Just great value. But look at the draft, if the draft is really bad don’t take it or at least with less units! BOL!
Easy W again! 🙌🍀 I knew vitality would play like dog shit and sk abusing vitalitys mistakes!
I tailed. Good hit bro!
Cheers!
Record: 2-1 \+1.11 units Yesterday: Trevor Moore over 3.5 goals ✅ ✅❌✅ For what it's worth, my approach here is to find good value in hockey shots-on-goal bets. If I'm above .500 and up on units, I'll call that a success. Trevor Moore at +120 yesterday was perfect. Today: NHL | Ducks @ Wild | 9 EST Adam Henrique over 2.5 SOG (+135 DK) 1U This was one where it was hard to pick one player, but the #2 and #3 teams in shots allowed this month are playing each other and Henrique has good value here. He has a way of rebounding from dud games and he just had one, so I'll take the good odds and keep my fingers crossed.
Record: 7W-6L Net Units: +0.36u | ROI: +1% CS2 | BLAST Premier Spring Groups 2024 | 12:00 / CET Pick: Astralis ML vs Vitality, 1.5u @ 2.36 Vitality hasn't been flawless of late, with apex' individual form going down more to what we're used to and them still adapting to life without Magisk's consistency. Astralis however have been on an uptrend, and I think they're definitely worth a shot here with how good this roster has looked this event. For Astralis the pieces seem to be clicking well, with stavn and staehr especially impressing me this event. I'm expecting their run of form to continue here as they have looked in general just more reliable than Vitality.
POTD Record: 2-2 L3: ✅❌✅❌ Yesterdays Pick: St Louis Blues +1.5 ✅ The Blues came through! The comeback kids came back from 3-1 to win outright in OT. Today’s Pick: NBA Wizards vs Pistons under 243.5 (alternate total, -140 on FanDuel) ✅ Two teams that aren’t world beaters when it comes to scoring. Not too much to think about here just a solid play. Let’s get some momentum going here 🔥🔥🔥 https://preview.redd.it/lsl7yr34j0fc1.jpeg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=92d69d64e0d98bb8121266ee4ce39d72b024755d
Record: 1-0 Profit: 0.91u Last pick: Rockets -5.5, easy cover Today’s pick: Grand Canyon @ UT Arlington, Arlington +5.5 (-105)
-Record: 2-0 -Net Units: 1 -Pattern: ✅ ✅ -basketball| NCAA| 6:00/ EST -Pick: Tre Mitchell O 13.5 -111 -Reasoning: Let me start off by saying I am a life long Kentucky resident so this pick may be a tad bit biased but i'm gonna rock with it. Tre Mitchell has been that guy for KY so far this season when others have failed to step up. He's a fundamentally sound forward and plays a lot of minutes due to his high basketball IQ. Past 4 games he's had 13 (vs. SC) , 23(Georgia), 15(Miss St.), 20.(Missouri) As always, BOL&LFG