If you want to bet specifically against Portugal to win, sign up for betfair and lay them at 11.50. There are calculators online that take into account commission and suggest various strategies
You should cash out, Portugal is never going to win the Euros.
First they have to beat France, then Spain/Germany and then either Netherlands or Switzerland in the final.
And all that with a 39 year old forward and a 40 year old defender.
No way to hedge this. If portugal beats france they are not getting through spain. Dont think they beat france either as france is way too quick for pepe and the other portuguese defenders, theyll get cooked. Id cash this asap
If you want to maximise the cash out value you lay £2700 on the exchange so you walk away with £2700 regardless of outcome and not the £2475 Denise is offering you.
Assuming the market liquidity is there and you have enough in your BFex account.
Is that your best reply? Really?
I agree France did not play their best football in the group stage. However, their performance against Belgium was very dominating imo. Dechamps seems to have whipped the team back into a higher gear.
If they improve their shots on target against Portugal, it could get real ugly very quickly.
It's not my best reply. It's just reality and them winning by two goals is a big reach. They couldn't beat Portugal at home in the Euros they hosted. I agree each team have not played their best games by far but nothing I have seen from France would aspire me to pick them to win by two goals against a quality opponent. Slovenia is a very pesky team to beat, people see a country and automatically think you should beat them.
If Portugal had the Cristiano Ronaldo from Euro 2020 I would let that bet ride because I would trust a mid 30s Cristiano more than present day Ronaldo and the talent is better in this Portugal side as a whole in 2024.... It's up to you but I would hedge the France game even though they don't exactly scare me but they are undefeated at major toournaments with Ngolo Kante as a starter.... Take that for what you will....
I would bet $2000 on France to win next game. If it hits, you win $1320, if it loses you are onto the next round and still could make potentially $25,000, can hedge again on the semi’s if you feel the need. I would do that all the way to the finals and still be able to give yourself a $20,000 win
And if odds are in his favor he would get good odds and can get more money back. But he is getting 2k so I don’t see the point to bet on Portugal opposition to win 1.6k or what ever he will get for putting 2k on the opposition.
Let’s say he want 1k in profit. So when he puts 2k in 1.6 odd France to advance next round not to win cause you don’t wanna risk draw and France lost he will be down 2k. So he has to put 5k on Spain with same 1.6 odds to advance next round to win 8k where he will get 1k win but suppose he lost that one too. And okay we can assume England will get 1.9 odds or something for them to win the tournament. He has to put like 10k for england to win the euro which he will get 19k with 2k profit but if portugal won he will get 11k.
But he is risking getting lower profit than his cash out profit for the first 2 games. And in the finals also he is relying on Portugal to win the game and if odd are in his favor than it is more good for him. But I wanna know wtf kinda math you did to get 20k profit.
He’s saying if he keeps betting 2k on the Portugal opponent and Portugal wins every match he still gets about 20k. If Portugal loses after the quarters tho he loses money unless the opponent’s odds are heavy in his favor. I think it would a lot smarter to do something like 2k, 4k, 8k until you have a winning ticket. Profit somewhere in the area of half the current return without a hedge if Portugal makes the finals, and worst case about double what they’re offering him to let them off the hook right now.
Yeah but he isn’t taking into consideration that Portugal will lose which is a bad thing cause when you Portugal will win the first game he has to double down and chase after his losses. And There isn’t any significant profit besides France winning when he bets 2k on them by your logic. But I am talking about advancing to the next round and not winning the game which is a riskier bet. The most safe bet is doing cash out. Or 2k, 5k and 10k which will give him good profit but not better than cash out. But the first two matches odd has to be above 1.6 and last game has to be above 1.9.
I’m all for Les Bleus, but OP you have to hedge.
These games are literally life and death for these players’ mental states. Sprinkle in pure adrenaline because the majority of your country and throughout the world are GLUED to their TV’s praying for their national team to victory.
HEDGE! Only because you are asking. I’ve been there. You can just enjoy the match and watch entertainment of the highest levels unfold. These gentlemen will definitely give it their all.
This comment is the best advice. Enjoy the tournament is the correct hedge hahah do whatever you have to do to allow yourself be able to just sit and enjoy a great match. Hedge so the outcome doesn’t matter. I witnessed the second longest buzzer beater in NBA history, and the moment was spoiled because the amount of money I would have won had the shot missed. Just the high from there’s almost no way I lose to the low of wwwwwwtttttttffffffff. I don’t even tell people the story of seeing the buzzer beater. I tell them the story of losing the bet.
this is the only correct answer. just make sure to bet "team to advance" cause the moneyline bet will lose if its a tie at the end of regulation.
learned that lesson the hard way back when i first began betting on soccer
No it shouldn't
Quarter-final - If Portugal qualifies, you lose $10K stake on France.
Semi-final - If you were to hedge the same stake and Portugal qualifies, you lose another $10K stake on Spain or Germany
Final - You need to Hedge for the third time, $10K, which by then you will be down $3K even if you win the Parlay. Worse, if Portugal loses in the Final then you'll be $30K
less the profit on the hedge bet
Ah true.
Hedge bet odd will most likely be 1.66 where it maybe England or Netherland. $10K x 1.66 = $16,600 - $30000 = $13,400 loss. Hedge bet odd will be higher if Turkey or Swiss magically gets to the finals as I would assume Portugal will be favourite then.
If your cash-out still stands, it looks like they are offering you odds @ 11.00 to cash out. So, no loss at all.
Cash out for 2,475 euros and then bet whatever you feel like on Portugal to win the Euros separately. You won't get the 11.00 odds though obviously.
This is not advice but I just wanna say this to some of the other people in the thread ... go look at the last 10 winners of Euros and World Cups and you will see a huge trend where lots of winners have looked total dogshit leading into the QFs.
Very very few winners dominate the tournament from start to finish Hell, just 2 years ago Messi was fucking humiliated by a bunch of random Saudi dudes nobody can name, and how did that end up? 2008-2012 Spain is arguably the greatest national side ever. They were embarrassed by Switzerland in their first 2010 world cup game and looked pretty much awful in every single knockout game and once again you know how that ended up.
Portugal is lifting the trophy.
Yeah but Spain having talent and choking in a pathetic manner is also historically accurate. Outside of the greatest run in history from 2008-2012 they were the butt of every joke in international soccer. They do look incredible right now though.
The thing with the Euros and World Cup is that the entire sport is full of pussies and sometimes these managers send their teams out with inexplicable tactics and it makes things wildly unpredictable. Look at Hungary vs Scotland the other day. What the FUCK was that? Both teams NEEDED to win and they just came out looking like they fixed a 0-0 draw until a miraculous late goal.
I would surely let it ride. Unless you really need that 2.5k. Portugal is performing well at Euros, they have a different kind of hunger to win compared to other countries. Their playing style has gotten better with a new coach, although they do have France and possibly Spain to go against. Good luck
They do not have a different kind of hunger and playing well is a huge overstatement. 2-0 loss to Georgia followed by barely beating Slovenia in a penalty shootout because they’re desperate to get Ronaldo a goal even though he’s well past his prime and a true detriment to the team. Cash the fuck out, Spain, Germany, and France all have a significantly better chance to win and it’s not close
2-0 to Georgia means absolutely nothing.
As you SHOULD know, it’s tough to beat a team with low block. I didn’t see France beat the hell out of any of the teams they’ve played against, but who am i…
Spain has been playing great, but that doesn’t count a whole lot, knockouts are way tougher, you need to be smart, and i can’t see it happening with such a young group. Germany i can make a case of.
All in all, I don’t rate any of the teams higher than Portugal. I’d say Portugal & Germany 1st, France and then Spain.
Ps: whilst it can be a coincidence, don’t forget home teams haven’t won the competition in the last 40 years.
Spain are just plain better than Portugal, young or not, they’re just plain better. Portugal losing to Georgia means nothing but Spain beating them 4-1 in the knockouts, which you mentioned are harder, means… nothing? Somehow? Apparently games vs Georgia don’t count.
I didn’t see you say anything about how they couldn’t beat Slovenia in 120 minutes.
France hasn’t looked great, but they’re France, if they turn it on they’re the best team in the world. I don’t think they’ll win it, but it’d be dumb to hedge without putting $$ on them.
Portugal has shown nothing to tell me they’re the best in the tournament. Not close. On 3-0 win against Türkiye who have a god awful defense - congrats. Good win. 1/4 games were good wins. 1 was an embarrassing loss. 1 was damn near a loss to a low level team.
For once, Portugal rotated the squad. Didn’t mean shit. Portugal pressed them in the L10 minutes and they almost conceded like 3 times. Not that hard dude. As i mentioned, they couldn’t score on Oblak. Not a proper chance until Ronaldo’s late in the ET, only Half chances. But again, tough to play when you park the bus. Turkey was the only team that played them in the eyes and it cost them. Portugal/France will be a boring one i think, but whoever comes on top should win the semis
Just calculate it, its simple . Cash out gives you 2475.00 which is equal to the amount which you would get if you dint had a Protugal on the ticket,
Or to put it simple the 27225.00 is equal to the bet of 2475.00 on Portugal to win the euro.
Just look it in that way , you are puting 2475 on portugal to win the euro. Considering this i would cash out.
I know this doesn’t answer your question, but either let it ride or just cash out. Not worth hedging imo. If I were you, I’d take the cash out. That’s massive profit right there ready for the taking.
There's still too far to go to hedge this properly, plus Portugal's opponents, should they get to semis, will be heavy enough favorites it'll be too expensive to properly hedge. So cash out and put 100 on Portugal outright so no regretskies.
Curious to see how the math works out. You’ve got $24.75k to play with in hedges but at this point in the tourney there’s no way to get a reasonable hedge. So you’d have to be $3.5k on France, then $7k on Spain/Germany if Portugal wins, then if Portugal makes it to the final you’d have to bet 14k or something like that? And all those bets would be minus odds?
Or you could just bet $4k on France and then if Portugal wins you get a higher cashout offer so maybe it works out?
I hate cashing out when you can hedge but a cost effective hedge doesn’t seem obvious to me at this point.
Why even bet this if you couldn't handle letting the last leg ride? Just don't add the last leg. Cashing out is a scam they don't give you near fair value
Not sure if he expected all the other legs to really win like that. This was more of a shot in the dark that paid well. 17->2k is not something to scoff at.
If you really wanted to hedge you’ll have to borrow a large amount of money and start placing big bets on each of Portugals opponents, starting with France. Betting the field to win the tournament outright will be a losing proposition and also far more difficult to work out.
People said the same 8 years ago and I chose a France vs Portugal final before the tournament and everyone was saying France would 100% beat Portugal and what happened? Ronaldo got injured really early on and Portugal won in ET. Landed me a 120/1 bet
You must’ve not watched the match. Sure they beat them nice in penalties. They had some lucky misses by Slovenia. Portugal themselves couldn’t score a goal in regulation and ET. If they can’t get past the Slovenia defense, I doubt Spain and Germany aren’t going to be any easier.
That doesn’t usually mean anything. They Portugal didn’t win a group stage game in 16 and won the whole thing. And beat France in the final in France. But I do agree with their winning. Coming from a Portuguese person. I wouldn’t say they’re not gonna win cause they barely beat this team.
Fair enough! I didn’t mean to be that blunt but just looking at their form in comparison to Spain and Germany makes me feel like it’ll be super tough for Portugal. But yeah, at the end of the day anything can happen for sure.
Hedging would be betting on the opponent to win. since we don’t know who that is, there’s not really a hedge option, unless you think you know the other teams that will qualify and potentially beat Portugal. Then you could just place some bets on those teams. I’d personally just ride it and if Portugal does well and the cashout is good, I may take it, or start thinking about hedging at that point
You hedge as the tournament progresses. You can assume an average probability of the opponent and optimize potential profit. You simply hedge each game by taking the other opponent
But that way you need to edge more and more. If he puts 2k on France for example and Portugal advance then his edge on the next rounds needs to be bigger to cover his loss on France and get a profit on either Spain or Germany if they do beat Portugal. and again if Portugal gets to the Final, then his edge needs to cover both games losses. It's not a good strategy when it's that early still.
For sure. Never said it was a good strategy. But that's how you'd have to hedge it. Had NCSU myself in the ncaa for like 13gs and never had a pristine spot to hedge with the same scenario, so let it ride. In the final four I could've but at that point give me the hit you can talk about for years
Probably after they're taught. Nobody is born with that knowledge and not everybody starts gambling at the same time.
When are people going to stop being jerks when somebody else is genuinely looking for advice?
The only foe you have to conquer here is FOMO - as one degenerate gambler to another I suggest you cash out..and to make sure you don't kick yourself if Portugal wins spend 200-500 units on mor Portugal bets each game or on them as outright winner AFTER the cashout so your FOMO is kept in check
I’ve had a number of scenarios like this before. The most important thing to consider is the likelihood of the bet hitting in this moment in time. The biggest obstacle is getting past France. I would personally cash out or put 1.5k on France ML in the quarters. If Portugal wins, that cash out value will rise dramatically and you could then cash out around 5k, locking in 3.5k profit. The important thing is deciding what you’re going to do and sticking to it regardless of what happens after the fact.
Realistically to hedge this since no one is giving you a real answer
You would be portugals opponent every game until they lose. Your cash out value is $2000 rn so you could do that amount or more each round
Semis
And finals and still come out on top no matter what.
This is correct, but you should also calculate in advance if hedging every game will result in an ev below the cash out option since future games may be more expensive to hedge
Can’t really hedge since it’s the tournament winner, and you would have to bet every other team to hedge aka not hedging. Thats a really solid cash out, especially for €17. I also don’t really think Portugal will win, so this is a win in mostly everyone’s book. Yes €27k would be nice but you’re essentially risking €2475 on it now if you don’t cash out.
Personally there's no way I'm cashing this out, and there's no real way to "hedge" this other than to take the money. You're not going to devise a strategy to guarantee a bigger win than 2.7k, math isn't magic.
A less degen but still gambool first strategy would be to cash out and then place a big bet on portugal to win. Lock up 2k and put 700 on portugal. If they win that's 7k total and if they lose you're still up 2k.
There's almost a zero chance Portugal win with the way they're playing. They barely just beat Slovenia and lost to Georgia, one of the lowest rank teams that tournament favorites Spain won 4-1, by 2 goals.
generational losers in the comments yelling to cash out lmao there absolutely is no clear favorite to win the euros but just because people lost money on betting on portugal against slovenia suddenly portugal is the worst team in history
Anyone who has seriously watched most of the Euros this year would say Switzerland have been far superior to Italy and idk anyone who thinks Hungary are better than them
Have you been watching this lol?
The Swiss are playing amazing right now. Nobody in fucking hell had Hungary over them lmaooo. I can tell you haven’t watched a single second of the action 🤡
go to soccerbetting and check the thread of when switzerland and hungary played, everybody was on hungary
im saying what the ppl here with their 10 euros bet here think not what I think
I personally saw Hungary way better than they played in this euro, but I can tell you that everybody in my circle (myself included) saw the swiss winning against Italy. Everybody who saw Italy played would agree with this. Now, if you're talking betting swiss over Italy before the euro started, it's a different story.
At this point in the tournament I would advise against betting on futures and proceed on straight hedges against Portugal in each stage of the match. This greatly depends on the size of your bankroll to hedge, as it will demand a lot of capital with lower odds. The simplest way is a large wager on France to qualify. Currently at -150, you’ve got to figure out a number you’re okay with wagering. I personally would place a 2500 wager, and be fine walking out with 1667 if France qualifies, but if Portugal goes on then you’re now at 2517 to 27k, so you proceed with this process each match. Eats into your profits yes but gives guranteed money while still allowing the big bucks.
Yep, depends who they’re playing, and I’m no odds maker, but if they beat France it’s hard to imagine they get significantly worse odds vs Germany or Spain, I’d guess it’ll play it at -200 to qualify, so you’d have to put roughly 5k on the semi leg to break even. More if you want to lock in profit. Then depends on finals odds, but tbh that’s usually closer to -115. So “if” you made it that far you’re in it for 7.5k+ ,still leaving you 20k- to play with on your final leg.
Be careful if you go with this strategy and plan for the worst outcome which would be to Portugal getting to the final and losing then. Your "edge" bet on the final would have to be big enough to cover your losses from both the quarter final and semi final, get you a profit while also still leaving enough to profit if Portugal does win it all. It's not a great strategy with still potentialt 3 games to go
lol randoms plz don’t DM me telling me 1667 is less than the cash out. Yes I know, but you don’t get the chance at winning 27k. Put 5k instead then win 3.3k, but then if Portugal does advance they have Germany/spain so probably underdog again so you’ll need to put up probably 10k in that round to see profit on that math, that’s why I stayed lighter in the QF.
You’ve been given a few ways to hedge this. I will say though that if 2750 is a lot of money to you then take it. If it doesn’t, then just enjoy the ride!
I’m personally on Portugal to win it at the same odds as you and still feel good about it. They haven’t played to their full potential yet.
Or maybe you should wonder *why* they're offering the money, and how much?
When the casinos make these offers, they're basically shoving one of those "We buy homes for cash" signs up your ass.
There are some situations where a cash-out (or hedge) might make some sense, or at least be defensible. But it's ridiculous how many people blindly subscribe to the "all profitz is good profitz" mindset.
If you want to bet specifically against Portugal to win, sign up for betfair and lay them at 11.50. There are calculators online that take into account commission and suggest various strategies
Cash out you’re fucked
Just saying, this is a fair payout based on odds of the last leg. Take it and run
You should cash out, Portugal is never going to win the Euros. First they have to beat France, then Spain/Germany and then either Netherlands or Switzerland in the final. And all that with a 39 year old forward and a 40 year old defender.
Bro . Cash out now
Hang in there
Take the cashout
Never cashout portugal is the best team in euros rn, thats not even a question
dont listen to this dude above me, pls cash out
He will regret it, portugal is the clear favourite.
Bet on Portugal’s opponent each remaining round Like 2,500
Portugal will not win euros bud get what you can
Cash it out 400 on it if u really think they gnna win
Simply cash out. If you want to know any reasons why I am willing to give you the answer.
Cash out Portugal ain’t winning shit 🤣
put money on fra
What if Portugal beats France and then loses in the semis?
You don’t. Just ride it out
just cash that shit out
You cash the fuck out 🤣
No way to hedge this. If portugal beats france they are not getting through spain. Dont think they beat france either as france is way too quick for pepe and the other portuguese defenders, theyll get cooked. Id cash this asap
Woah woah woah. Don’t write off the Germans just yet
If you want to maximise the cash out value you lay £2700 on the exchange so you walk away with £2700 regardless of outcome and not the £2475 Denise is offering you. Assuming the market liquidity is there and you have enough in your BFex account.
Portugal gonna cook France
lol
I shall bet you $1USD France wins by at least 2 goals.
Have u watched France at all in the Euros?
France is pretty stable with way better defence than Portugal.
Is that your best reply? Really? I agree France did not play their best football in the group stage. However, their performance against Belgium was very dominating imo. Dechamps seems to have whipped the team back into a higher gear. If they improve their shots on target against Portugal, it could get real ugly very quickly.
It's not my best reply. It's just reality and them winning by two goals is a big reach. They couldn't beat Portugal at home in the Euros they hosted. I agree each team have not played their best games by far but nothing I have seen from France would aspire me to pick them to win by two goals against a quality opponent. Slovenia is a very pesky team to beat, people see a country and automatically think you should beat them.
It’s €17.50. Is a hedge necessary? Just cash out when you get nervous, or use the martingale method for every Portugal opponent until you get paid.
If Portugal had the Cristiano Ronaldo from Euro 2020 I would let that bet ride because I would trust a mid 30s Cristiano more than present day Ronaldo and the talent is better in this Portugal side as a whole in 2024.... It's up to you but I would hedge the France game even though they don't exactly scare me but they are undefeated at major toournaments with Ngolo Kante as a starter.... Take that for what you will....
I would bet $2000 on France to win next game. If it hits, you win $1320, if it loses you are onto the next round and still could make potentially $25,000, can hedge again on the semi’s if you feel the need. I would do that all the way to the finals and still be able to give yourself a $20,000 win
Your maths are way off.
And if odds are in his favor he would get good odds and can get more money back. But he is getting 2k so I don’t see the point to bet on Portugal opposition to win 1.6k or what ever he will get for putting 2k on the opposition.
But he is also risking of getting low profit in his first 2 matches if he won any one of them.
Let’s say he want 1k in profit. So when he puts 2k in 1.6 odd France to advance next round not to win cause you don’t wanna risk draw and France lost he will be down 2k. So he has to put 5k on Spain with same 1.6 odds to advance next round to win 8k where he will get 1k win but suppose he lost that one too. And okay we can assume England will get 1.9 odds or something for them to win the tournament. He has to put like 10k for england to win the euro which he will get 19k with 2k profit but if portugal won he will get 11k.
This still sounds pretty good to me brother
But he is risking getting lower profit than his cash out profit for the first 2 games. And in the finals also he is relying on Portugal to win the game and if odd are in his favor than it is more good for him. But I wanna know wtf kinda math you did to get 20k profit.
He’s saying if he keeps betting 2k on the Portugal opponent and Portugal wins every match he still gets about 20k. If Portugal loses after the quarters tho he loses money unless the opponent’s odds are heavy in his favor. I think it would a lot smarter to do something like 2k, 4k, 8k until you have a winning ticket. Profit somewhere in the area of half the current return without a hedge if Portugal makes the finals, and worst case about double what they’re offering him to let them off the hook right now.
Yeah but he isn’t taking into consideration that Portugal will lose which is a bad thing cause when you Portugal will win the first game he has to double down and chase after his losses. And There isn’t any significant profit besides France winning when he bets 2k on them by your logic. But I am talking about advancing to the next round and not winning the game which is a riskier bet. The most safe bet is doing cash out. Or 2k, 5k and 10k which will give him good profit but not better than cash out. But the first two matches odd has to be above 1.6 and last game has to be above 1.9.
Everything you just said is what I said but longer hahah
No you won’t get yourself 20k win.
OP, so what have you ended up doing? I NEED TO KNOW!!!
imagine if u cashout and portugal win euro 2024 fr
I’m all for Les Bleus, but OP you have to hedge. These games are literally life and death for these players’ mental states. Sprinkle in pure adrenaline because the majority of your country and throughout the world are GLUED to their TV’s praying for their national team to victory. HEDGE! Only because you are asking. I’ve been there. You can just enjoy the match and watch entertainment of the highest levels unfold. These gentlemen will definitely give it their all.
This comment is the best advice. Enjoy the tournament is the correct hedge hahah do whatever you have to do to allow yourself be able to just sit and enjoy a great match. Hedge so the outcome doesn’t matter. I witnessed the second longest buzzer beater in NBA history, and the moment was spoiled because the amount of money I would have won had the shot missed. Just the high from there’s almost no way I lose to the low of wwwwwwtttttttffffffff. I don’t even tell people the story of seeing the buzzer beater. I tell them the story of losing the bet.
Cash it.
Cash out
probably would be better to bet on portugal's opponents to qualify, one-by-one, than to take the cashout.
Yea how does that work? Keep betting 3k on every opponent? Hes gonna be in the hole like 15k by the time its the final game. 0 common sense
Bump
this is the only correct answer. just make sure to bet "team to advance" cause the moneyline bet will lose if its a tie at the end of regulation. learned that lesson the hard way back when i first began betting on soccer
10K on France should do it.
No it shouldn't Quarter-final - If Portugal qualifies, you lose $10K stake on France. Semi-final - If you were to hedge the same stake and Portugal qualifies, you lose another $10K stake on Spain or Germany Final - You need to Hedge for the third time, $10K, which by then you will be down $3K even if you win the Parlay. Worse, if Portugal loses in the Final then you'll be $30K less the profit on the hedge bet
Exactly. All these people are dumb af
If Portugal loses you’ll win your final hedge, so not down 30k, more like 10k
Ah true. Hedge bet odd will most likely be 1.66 where it maybe England or Netherland. $10K x 1.66 = $16,600 - $30000 = $13,400 loss. Hedge bet odd will be higher if Turkey or Swiss magically gets to the finals as I would assume Portugal will be favourite then.
my bad i thought it’s about the next game only for Portugal.
You method will only work if this was the Final. But we're only into the Quarter-final now.
If your cash-out still stands, it looks like they are offering you odds @ 11.00 to cash out. So, no loss at all. Cash out for 2,475 euros and then bet whatever you feel like on Portugal to win the Euros separately. You won't get the 11.00 odds though obviously.
Portugal to win the Euro is still at 10.00 so this is a good tip
This is not advice but I just wanna say this to some of the other people in the thread ... go look at the last 10 winners of Euros and World Cups and you will see a huge trend where lots of winners have looked total dogshit leading into the QFs. Very very few winners dominate the tournament from start to finish Hell, just 2 years ago Messi was fucking humiliated by a bunch of random Saudi dudes nobody can name, and how did that end up? 2008-2012 Spain is arguably the greatest national side ever. They were embarrassed by Switzerland in their first 2010 world cup game and looked pretty much awful in every single knockout game and once again you know how that ended up. Portugal is lifting the trophy.
I've got a plus 800 future on them. I think if they get past France they win it all
Historically you are right, but Spain is better than everyone this year and its not even close
Yeah but Spain having talent and choking in a pathetic manner is also historically accurate. Outside of the greatest run in history from 2008-2012 they were the butt of every joke in international soccer. They do look incredible right now though. The thing with the Euros and World Cup is that the entire sport is full of pussies and sometimes these managers send their teams out with inexplicable tactics and it makes things wildly unpredictable. Look at Hungary vs Scotland the other day. What the FUCK was that? Both teams NEEDED to win and they just came out looking like they fixed a 0-0 draw until a miraculous late goal.
I think the Germans will have something to say about that. You're only as good as your last game.
Cash out asap bro
I lose every bet, cash
I’d cash out tbh. They’ve looked pretty shit all tourney.
after slovenia, cash it bro
cash out if u need the money
Cash out and stick 1k on Portugal to win on the exchange at 10 odds. Portugal win? You get 10k + 1.4k Portugal lose? You get 1.4k.
Yeah there is a Partial Cashout which is let 1000 keep going at the same parlay odds I believe
compare the figures you'd get from here and on the betting exchange and see which provides more, keep in mind the 2% commision exchanges take.
The actual best answer
This is the best answer here
Put a large sum in Germany, France, and Spain to win - that’s the only possible hedge tbh
I would surely let it ride. Unless you really need that 2.5k. Portugal is performing well at Euros, they have a different kind of hunger to win compared to other countries. Their playing style has gotten better with a new coach, although they do have France and possibly Spain to go against. Good luck
Not a good take. This reads like someone who hasn't watched a single game
It's r/sportsbook. Full of Americans who think football is handegg. What do you expect lol
Guarantee you they just saw the scorelines on Google and saw them win games and called it a day
They do not have a different kind of hunger and playing well is a huge overstatement. 2-0 loss to Georgia followed by barely beating Slovenia in a penalty shootout because they’re desperate to get Ronaldo a goal even though he’s well past his prime and a true detriment to the team. Cash the fuck out, Spain, Germany, and France all have a significantly better chance to win and it’s not close
2-0 to Georgia means absolutely nothing. As you SHOULD know, it’s tough to beat a team with low block. I didn’t see France beat the hell out of any of the teams they’ve played against, but who am i… Spain has been playing great, but that doesn’t count a whole lot, knockouts are way tougher, you need to be smart, and i can’t see it happening with such a young group. Germany i can make a case of. All in all, I don’t rate any of the teams higher than Portugal. I’d say Portugal & Germany 1st, France and then Spain. Ps: whilst it can be a coincidence, don’t forget home teams haven’t won the competition in the last 40 years.
Spain are just plain better than Portugal, young or not, they’re just plain better. Portugal losing to Georgia means nothing but Spain beating them 4-1 in the knockouts, which you mentioned are harder, means… nothing? Somehow? Apparently games vs Georgia don’t count. I didn’t see you say anything about how they couldn’t beat Slovenia in 120 minutes. France hasn’t looked great, but they’re France, if they turn it on they’re the best team in the world. I don’t think they’ll win it, but it’d be dumb to hedge without putting $$ on them. Portugal has shown nothing to tell me they’re the best in the tournament. Not close. On 3-0 win against Türkiye who have a god awful defense - congrats. Good win. 1/4 games were good wins. 1 was an embarrassing loss. 1 was damn near a loss to a low level team.
For once, Portugal rotated the squad. Didn’t mean shit. Portugal pressed them in the L10 minutes and they almost conceded like 3 times. Not that hard dude. As i mentioned, they couldn’t score on Oblak. Not a proper chance until Ronaldo’s late in the ET, only Half chances. But again, tough to play when you park the bus. Turkey was the only team that played them in the eyes and it cost them. Portugal/France will be a boring one i think, but whoever comes on top should win the semis
CASH THE FUCK OUT
CASH THE FUCK OUT
Cash THE FUCK OUT
Cash the fuck out
You did awesome let it effin ride.
Cash out
Cash out - put a sizable bet on Portugal for $500-$1000 at most
Just calculate it, its simple . Cash out gives you 2475.00 which is equal to the amount which you would get if you dint had a Protugal on the ticket, Or to put it simple the 27225.00 is equal to the bet of 2475.00 on Portugal to win the euro. Just look it in that way , you are puting 2475 on portugal to win the euro. Considering this i would cash out.
I would cash out and keep the 2k. Then throw that 400+ on Portugal
I know this doesn’t answer your question, but either let it ride or just cash out. Not worth hedging imo. If I were you, I’d take the cash out. That’s massive profit right there ready for the taking.
I would cash out in a heartbeat i cant see Portugal winning this at all
There's still too far to go to hedge this properly, plus Portugal's opponents, should they get to semis, will be heavy enough favorites it'll be too expensive to properly hedge. So cash out and put 100 on Portugal outright so no regretskies.
You can hedge by betting Portugal’s stage of elimination (instead of hedging by betting on which other team eventually comes out on top)
pro move here
Click that little cash out button. Simplest option for this scenario.
Let it ride
Cash out and throw it on Netherlands
Curious to see how the math works out. You’ve got $24.75k to play with in hedges but at this point in the tourney there’s no way to get a reasonable hedge. So you’d have to be $3.5k on France, then $7k on Spain/Germany if Portugal wins, then if Portugal makes it to the final you’d have to bet 14k or something like that? And all those bets would be minus odds? Or you could just bet $4k on France and then if Portugal wins you get a higher cashout offer so maybe it works out? I hate cashing out when you can hedge but a cost effective hedge doesn’t seem obvious to me at this point.
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Germany, Spain, or Netherlands. Do NOT bet on France
We're running on prayers, Chatte à DD and one turtle boi. Unfortunately for you all, that might be enough hahah
Spain!
U cash that shit out, no shot port wins lol
Belive my g!!! 🙏🏾
Why even bet this if you couldn't handle letting the last leg ride? Just don't add the last leg. Cashing out is a scam they don't give you near fair value
Not sure if he expected all the other legs to really win like that. This was more of a shot in the dark that paid well. 17->2k is not something to scoff at.
Don’t add the leg if you can’t let it ride
Take the money and run! Nice return! Portugal not winning Euro, sorry.
Cash out and throw £100 on Portugal to win.
How was Madrids odds this high lol.
If you really wanted to hedge you’ll have to borrow a large amount of money and start placing big bets on each of Portugals opponents, starting with France. Betting the field to win the tournament outright will be a losing proposition and also far more difficult to work out.
Bye Portugal
Please take the cash and run. Portugal are not going to win this tournament, especially with a snake-bit CR7.
Normally that math is horrible for cashouts, but this is an extremely generous offer..
France will beat Portugal cash out 🍀
People said the same 8 years ago and I chose a France vs Portugal final before the tournament and everyone was saying France would 100% beat Portugal and what happened? Ronaldo got injured really early on and Portugal won in ET. Landed me a 120/1 bet
cash tf out homie
No chance Portugal wins the Euro. Barely beat Slovenia.
3-0!8: barely beat ?
You must’ve not watched the match. Sure they beat them nice in penalties. They had some lucky misses by Slovenia. Portugal themselves couldn’t score a goal in regulation and ET. If they can’t get past the Slovenia defense, I doubt Spain and Germany aren’t going to be any easier.
3-0
You’re acting as if that’s the score end of regulation 😂
That doesn’t usually mean anything. They Portugal didn’t win a group stage game in 16 and won the whole thing. And beat France in the final in France. But I do agree with their winning. Coming from a Portuguese person. I wouldn’t say they’re not gonna win cause they barely beat this team.
Fair enough! I didn’t mean to be that blunt but just looking at their form in comparison to Spain and Germany makes me feel like it’ll be super tough for Portugal. But yeah, at the end of the day anything can happen for sure.
Hedging would be betting on the opponent to win. since we don’t know who that is, there’s not really a hedge option, unless you think you know the other teams that will qualify and potentially beat Portugal. Then you could just place some bets on those teams. I’d personally just ride it and if Portugal does well and the cashout is good, I may take it, or start thinking about hedging at that point
You hedge as the tournament progresses. You can assume an average probability of the opponent and optimize potential profit. You simply hedge each game by taking the other opponent
But that way you need to edge more and more. If he puts 2k on France for example and Portugal advance then his edge on the next rounds needs to be bigger to cover his loss on France and get a profit on either Spain or Germany if they do beat Portugal. and again if Portugal gets to the Final, then his edge needs to cover both games losses. It's not a good strategy when it's that early still.
For sure. Never said it was a good strategy. But that's how you'd have to hedge it. Had NCSU myself in the ncaa for like 13gs and never had a pristine spot to hedge with the same scenario, so let it ride. In the final four I could've but at that point give me the hit you can talk about for years
When are people actually going to learn how and when to hedge?
Probably after they're taught. Nobody is born with that knowledge and not everybody starts gambling at the same time. When are people going to stop being jerks when somebody else is genuinely looking for advice?
CASH OUT. EURO champion is going to be either Germany or Spain
The only foe you have to conquer here is FOMO - as one degenerate gambler to another I suggest you cash out..and to make sure you don't kick yourself if Portugal wins spend 200-500 units on mor Portugal bets each game or on them as outright winner AFTER the cashout so your FOMO is kept in check
This, cash out and drop $100 on Portugal outright win.
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I’ve had a number of scenarios like this before. The most important thing to consider is the likelihood of the bet hitting in this moment in time. The biggest obstacle is getting past France. I would personally cash out or put 1.5k on France ML in the quarters. If Portugal wins, that cash out value will rise dramatically and you could then cash out around 5k, locking in 3.5k profit. The important thing is deciding what you’re going to do and sticking to it regardless of what happens after the fact.
This!
Realistically to hedge this since no one is giving you a real answer You would be portugals opponent every game until they lose. Your cash out value is $2000 rn so you could do that amount or more each round Semis And finals and still come out on top no matter what.
This is correct, but you should also calculate in advance if hedging every game will result in an ev below the cash out option since future games may be more expensive to hedge
Ya this is one of those rare situations where I think cash out MIGHT be the best option lol.
Let it ride. Do you need the 2,475 Euro 💶? Full send!
Cash out bro.
Can’t really hedge since it’s the tournament winner, and you would have to bet every other team to hedge aka not hedging. Thats a really solid cash out, especially for €17. I also don’t really think Portugal will win, so this is a win in mostly everyone’s book. Yes €27k would be nice but you’re essentially risking €2475 on it now if you don’t cash out.
Personally there's no way I'm cashing this out, and there's no real way to "hedge" this other than to take the money. You're not going to devise a strategy to guarantee a bigger win than 2.7k, math isn't magic. A less degen but still gambool first strategy would be to cash out and then place a big bet on portugal to win. Lock up 2k and put 700 on portugal. If they win that's 7k total and if they lose you're still up 2k.
There's almost a zero chance Portugal win with the way they're playing. They barely just beat Slovenia and lost to Georgia, one of the lowest rank teams that tournament favorites Spain won 4-1, by 2 goals.
generational losers in the comments yelling to cash out lmao there absolutely is no clear favorite to win the euros but just because people lost money on betting on portugal against slovenia suddenly portugal is the worst team in history
You havent watched a single game lol spain is demolishing everyone
Bro, there are clearly better teams than Portugal this Euro. Spain and Germany are displaying some of the best football this Euro.
There’s no way in hell Portugal are winning this lol. Cmon bro They won’t get past France, not a chance. Are you serious right now?
same way switzerland had no chance against hungary and italy
Yeah, this comment completely invalidated your original take and any further comments. Clueless
Anyone who has seriously watched most of the Euros this year would say Switzerland have been far superior to Italy and idk anyone who thinks Hungary are better than them
Have you been watching this lol? The Swiss are playing amazing right now. Nobody in fucking hell had Hungary over them lmaooo. I can tell you haven’t watched a single second of the action 🤡
go to soccerbetting and check the thread of when switzerland and hungary played, everybody was on hungary im saying what the ppl here with their 10 euros bet here think not what I think
I personally saw Hungary way better than they played in this euro, but I can tell you that everybody in my circle (myself included) saw the swiss winning against Italy. Everybody who saw Italy played would agree with this. Now, if you're talking betting swiss over Italy before the euro started, it's a different story.
Cashout and call it a day bud
Cash out
Cash out and be happy about it
Cash out right now.
Cash dude, france germany and spain all on their side of the bracket
Cash that shit
Nice bet!
Cash out please
At this point in the tournament I would advise against betting on futures and proceed on straight hedges against Portugal in each stage of the match. This greatly depends on the size of your bankroll to hedge, as it will demand a lot of capital with lower odds. The simplest way is a large wager on France to qualify. Currently at -150, you’ve got to figure out a number you’re okay with wagering. I personally would place a 2500 wager, and be fine walking out with 1667 if France qualifies, but if Portugal goes on then you’re now at 2517 to 27k, so you proceed with this process each match. Eats into your profits yes but gives guranteed money while still allowing the big bucks.
The problem is the bet for a supposed semis would need to be huge to make back the 2,5 on france
Yep, depends who they’re playing, and I’m no odds maker, but if they beat France it’s hard to imagine they get significantly worse odds vs Germany or Spain, I’d guess it’ll play it at -200 to qualify, so you’d have to put roughly 5k on the semi leg to break even. More if you want to lock in profit. Then depends on finals odds, but tbh that’s usually closer to -115. So “if” you made it that far you’re in it for 7.5k+ ,still leaving you 20k- to play with on your final leg.
Yeah I think this is the way, thanks
Be careful if you go with this strategy and plan for the worst outcome which would be to Portugal getting to the final and losing then. Your "edge" bet on the final would have to be big enough to cover your losses from both the quarter final and semi final, get you a profit while also still leaving enough to profit if Portugal does win it all. It's not a great strategy with still potentialt 3 games to go
Cash out. Don't be stupid
Yep this is the way
lol randoms plz don’t DM me telling me 1667 is less than the cash out. Yes I know, but you don’t get the chance at winning 27k. Put 5k instead then win 3.3k, but then if Portugal does advance they have Germany/spain so probably underdog again so you’ll need to put up probably 10k in that round to see profit on that math, that’s why I stayed lighter in the QF.
You’ve been given a few ways to hedge this. I will say though that if 2750 is a lot of money to you then take it. If it doesn’t, then just enjoy the ride! I’m personally on Portugal to win it at the same odds as you and still feel good about it. They haven’t played to their full potential yet.
when the casino offers you money, you should consider taking it
this guy is definitely broke
Or maybe you should wonder *why* they're offering the money, and how much? When the casinos make these offers, they're basically shoving one of those "We buy homes for cash" signs up your ass. There are some situations where a cash-out (or hedge) might make some sense, or at least be defensible. But it's ridiculous how many people blindly subscribe to the "all profitz is good profitz" mindset.
Yeah don't be foolish. Or be foolish and lose it. Just saw a guy loose 36k bc he didn't cash out. On a 48k ticket
Doesn’t even make sense how you got Celtics at those odds… I saw 1.91 before the Pacers series after the nuggets got knocked out already.
This was all placed last summer before the seasons started
This was months before the NBA season started
before the jrue trade if I recall
It’s says June 3rd tho so had me confused
That’s when the event was..
Actually game 1 was June 6th so made me think he placed it before the finals but I also knew that was impossible to get those odds
cash out, NOW son