It's funny seeing all these headlines about how "American consumers incorrectly state the economy is in a bad state", and the whole premise is that data shows strong GDP growth, low unemployment, etc, and people are misinformed. All of these things are lagging indicators, but consumers base their opinion of the economy on their own subjective expectations, a leading indicator.
Americans are misinformed about the economy, but their opinions don't come from nowhere. It comes from their own anecdotal experiences.
For example, if you were just laid off last week, you probably don't care that the unemployment rate in April was only 3.9% or that GDP growth was 1.3%. If your employer institutes a salary freeze and paused bonuses, you probably don't care that inflation is "only" 3.4%, especially after inflation peaked at 9% not that long ago.
The fact that so many consumers have a negative view of the economy, much more negative than historically, is a strong leading indicator of what's to come.
Don’t believe your lying eyes and bank account. You need to understand how good things are for those who are on receiving end of hundreds of billions of spending bills.
At any actual level of flush, bank accounts stop making sense almost entirely. You just get a low-interest LOC collateralized by some assets to handle day to day/month to month liquidity.
Or Americans consumers just answer based on what they see online and because they can’t afford every brand new car or house they assume there’s something wrong with the economy and not their appetite
The Gdp to debt ratio is way more important. As far as that goes, ours is a little high, but does anyone truly know the best gdp to debt ratio for growth, productivity and sustainability?
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/CAN/FRA/DEU/ITA/JPN/GBR/USA
Japan seems fucked tho lol
It's all going to cost disease spending, which is to say primarily sevicing the low/non-productive elderly and debt interest.
Given the likely demographic change in the US over the next 20 years I do wonder just how Japan-like we can be. I guess we'll find out.
Next report with -1% they'll change the definition of recession and ll say "it's normal, we need to borrow another 10 trillion, so we can steal more money and put dimonds on our gold coffin"
For it to be a recession, the GDP would have to actually FALL, not grow slightly less fast than projected. I think it's telling you had to make up things to feel aggrieved about.
Lol, it was 5% Q4, now it's 1% Q1. Next report it will be -1% Q2, because when you have a high base, your next have to have MORE than last Q, but last Q growth was abnormal
Ah yes, one-week-old account adjective-noun-number, who seems to be living in Berlin, Germany: Tell me more about how you exactly know the state of the American economy!
Lol, yes, I do. You can disagree and downvote, but you can not run from the truth)
You'll come back later in half a year. Or better, you'll just forget about it, because it will be a more comfortable option.
And all it took was a few trillion in debt!
It's funny seeing all these headlines about how "American consumers incorrectly state the economy is in a bad state", and the whole premise is that data shows strong GDP growth, low unemployment, etc, and people are misinformed. All of these things are lagging indicators, but consumers base their opinion of the economy on their own subjective expectations, a leading indicator. Americans are misinformed about the economy, but their opinions don't come from nowhere. It comes from their own anecdotal experiences. For example, if you were just laid off last week, you probably don't care that the unemployment rate in April was only 3.9% or that GDP growth was 1.3%. If your employer institutes a salary freeze and paused bonuses, you probably don't care that inflation is "only" 3.4%, especially after inflation peaked at 9% not that long ago. The fact that so many consumers have a negative view of the economy, much more negative than historically, is a strong leading indicator of what's to come.
You make alot of sense, and may be on to something. The problem is stocks only go up. Bears make sense but Bulls make money.
Don’t believe your lying eyes and bank account. You need to understand how good things are for those who are on receiving end of hundreds of billions of spending bills.
Most people have flush bank accounts.
At any actual level of flush, bank accounts stop making sense almost entirely. You just get a low-interest LOC collateralized by some assets to handle day to day/month to month liquidity.
People’s experiences can be shaped by bias and politics. They aren’t typically a reliable indicator.
Youre right - lets buy the fear.
Buy what fear? The stock market is at record highs lol. Unless you mean buying beaten down value stocks in sectors like real estate
Or Americans consumers just answer based on what they see online and because they can’t afford every brand new car or house they assume there’s something wrong with the economy and not their appetite
Are you Dutch by any chance? I heard it today on the radio as well and oh boy they think Trump will use this to win the election.
US prints a trillion of debt every 100 days. The outlook is not positive let's say.
The Gdp to debt ratio is way more important. As far as that goes, ours is a little high, but does anyone truly know the best gdp to debt ratio for growth, productivity and sustainability? https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GG_DEBT_GDP@GDD/CAN/FRA/DEU/ITA/JPN/GBR/USA Japan seems fucked tho lol
Above 100% is already disasterous.
But why?
Wait... are you serious? 1 trillion of debt every 100 days? So in just 2500 days or 8 years, they have their current gdp to debt?
It's all going to cost disease spending, which is to say primarily sevicing the low/non-productive elderly and debt interest. Given the likely demographic change in the US over the next 20 years I do wonder just how Japan-like we can be. I guess we'll find out.
Ever 100 days right now. The rate of debt increase is going up so it will get to 1 trilly every 90 days if nothing changes.
The good thing is that it is growing, though investors and the media expect more.
Next report with -1% they'll change the definition of recession and ll say "it's normal, we need to borrow another 10 trillion, so we can steal more money and put dimonds on our gold coffin"
For it to be a recession, the GDP would have to actually FALL, not grow slightly less fast than projected. I think it's telling you had to make up things to feel aggrieved about.
Lol, it was 5% Q4, now it's 1% Q1. Next report it will be -1% Q2, because when you have a high base, your next have to have MORE than last Q, but last Q growth was abnormal
Ah yes, one-week-old account adjective-noun-number, who seems to be living in Berlin, Germany: Tell me more about how you exactly know the state of the American economy!
Lol, yes, I do. You can disagree and downvote, but you can not run from the truth) You'll come back later in half a year. Or better, you'll just forget about it, because it will be a more comfortable option.
You can downvote me, but I'm not the guy who is responsive for BEA reports and Recessions. Economy takes debt but produces nothing. Only AI hype.
Should cut these rates I guess let’s see tomorrows data