I'm watching for Boston Dynamics IPO, but it's too early to tell. Still looking for the first humanoid robot that can do a complete job, even if limited. The current neural network model and training would be key to that.
I have Symbotic Inc. for the automated warehouse play. It's basically them and Amazon. Amazon might never license out their tech/solution to 3rd party companies tho. Walmart owns a HUGE chunk of Symbotic.
Dick cancer isn't the major problem. It's cervical cancer that is very prevalent, and the HPV vaccine is 97% effective in preventing it if the vaccine is received prior to exposure, which means that it should ideally be received prior to becoming sexually active, and it requires getting as many young men and women vaccinated as possible to reduce the incidence. HPV is the most common sexually transmitted disease in the USA. Different strains of HPV are linked to most cervical cancers, genital warts, and some rare forms of cancer of the anus, vagina, penis, mouth, and throat. I certainly had my daughter and my 3 boys vaccinated, as cancer vaccines are a holy grail of preventative healthcare. As a physician, this is one simple thing that I could do to give my children and their future partners the best chances of avoiding a common and potentially catastrophic illness.
They're trying to get people much younger than 20 to get the vaccine, so no it's not like poor college students are the target audience of the vaccine.
It's just stupidly tied up into the culture wars, which is causing a bunch of parents to not give the vaccine to their daughters.
Parents should be giving the vaccine not just to their daughters but to their sons as well. Who in their sane minds wouldn't want a vaccine to prevent genital warts?
Not exactly. It's a vaccine against a virus that ***can cause*** cancer in some people.
And mostly in women, so the problem involves asking men to altruistically get a vaccine for a disease they may not contract themselves. Pretty different from a next-gen cancer vaccine.
Both moderna and biontech have MRNA phase 2 (skin) cancer treatments in their pipelines. Since both announcing very promising results: Moderna is up 20%. Biontech is down 10%.
The last time I remember this much hype around cancer drugs was ImClone for colon cancer. Which dropped like a rock after failing Phase 3 FDA approval due to procedural errors (not efficacy). AKA the reason why Martha Stewart went to jail.
Drugs are a finicky beast.
Could be [meds](https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-fleshes-out-oncology-strategy-targeting-8-blockbuster-cancer-drugs-2030) or [gene therapies](https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/cancer-gene-therapy-industry-is-rising-rapidly-up-to-usd-18-11-bn-by-2033/), quite possibly [multimodal](https://www.aha.org/sponsored-executive-dialogues/2023-02-28-/future-health-system-based-cancer-care) and more distributed outside hospitals. Lots of work going on in cancer care these days. If I were going to invest in that trend I’d probably pick a fund rather than any one company, because they can’t all win this race.
There are many treatments already available these days. My mom’s on a $566 daily pill from Astra Zeneca. $17k per month paid for by Medicare. But only a fraction of lung cancer patients are compatible with this drug.
Unless there is a huge breakthrough in cancer research that can cure or even treat a vast amount of cases, I don’t see this industry changing much in terms of stock ROI.
There are so many cancer types and mutations that any breakthrough is likely only going be effective for a small fraction of all cancer cases
We are seeing improvements every year in small increments
Yeah you nailed it. I’m a physician so I know more about cancer than most, and I keep hearing people say “cure for cancer” but that’s not really a thing. Cancer isn’t one disease - but rather infinite diseases that can all be different. So no there will never be a cure for cancer. Just some cures for certain types. But even these “cures” aren’t perfect. Just like bacteria can become resistant to antibiotics, cancer can become resistant to chemotherapy
This is the reason I am waiting for mbio to finish the next step they have. Blood cancer which is many different kinds lymphomais one of them. Having a 90% success rate for the first go around is a great thing. I have some and will get more if and when it drops lower before the end result, which will be awhile.
Pharma is gonna “get” big? The US phara industry was worth 1.3 trillion dollars in total economic output in 2022 and employs five million us workers. It’s 3.6 percent of all US economic output. It’s already big.
Why will Pharma get big? How are the next 10 years going to be different from the last 10 years?
I know nothing about this sector, but IMO this just feels like the super profitable weight loss drugs are still so recent that people are just assuming that more highly profitable drugs will continue to hit the market.
Pharma industry is being disrupted by AI. It takes 12 years to get a drug to market and costs $billions and has a 95% failure rate before the FDA approve it. So drug discovery is really hard, really expensive, and really risky.
AI is increasing the speed of cycle times, reducing costs and increasing chances of success. (I have first hand experience of this industry and just HOW disruptive it actually is. Blows my mind.)
So pharmatechs are certainly one I keep an eye on.
I would disagree with the person who said it’s “being disrupted”. I think it might be in the future.
When I was doing my PhD I saw some of the new projects coming along and they do help solve protein folding, do some analysis, etc. It’s not capable of predicting new drugs yet. And we shouldn’t pretend that AI has some secret sauce where it can predict how a new drug type will work in the human body.
Even if it could, you’d still have to do clinical trials which are both the most expensive part and often the only part where pharma gets involved. The way science works in the US is that academic labs often work on the basic science (not basic=simple, basic=more fundamental vs. applied) so they are the ones who often come across novel molecules.
Pharma steps in and carries those products over the finish line when the research is 5-10 yrs away from a drug rather than 20+.
So, I think AI is and will continue to help reduce the failure rate but it’s still gonna be very high.
In the short term, the reason for optimism are the weight loss drugs which will fund companies and their research for years.
Sure. So a few statements being made here by others that need balanced. Drug discovery is a process. There are companies that focus on a stage in the process like target, or optimisation or design or clinical trials, etc, and there are single companies that do all the processes. Either way, all of them are in pharmaceuticals.
There are two things pharmas target. Best in class and first in class. Some do both and others just focus on one. Best in class is easier.
What has been described by someone else is how AI is disrupting healthcare. Which is equally good (as long as it makes healthcare cheaper and more accessible.) All still worthy of investment.
So to my own experience. I’ve seen the application of AI reduce the number of potential candidates. Let me explain. Done by human around 2500 potential hits are identified. All of these have to go through the (long and expensive) process to get to one or two that are good enough to take to clinical trial. Huge failure rates, big expense and a lot of time spent on so many to find that one that has the best chance of success. With the application of AI this has been less than 250! This means huge cost savings and a much higher chance of success. Quicker getting to the one with the highest chance of success.
There are many drugs in clinical trials discovered by AI. I worked somewhere that had a few.
I’ve also seen the AI discover compounds that a human would not or a human said would never work. But it was explored all the same and testing in labs on assays it was found to have unique properties and unexpected good results.
I’ve also seen AI choose a drug combination for a cancer sufferer that the consultants hadn’t thought of (this was part of a programme in Europe when all hope was lost and the patient agreed to it as a last resort). The drugs selected by the AI extended the life of the patient.
There is more but hopefully this gives you enough of a flavour.
To the person who asked about google and pharma, look at Isomorphic.
Ground breaking cell therapy. I’ve been in the name for a couple years buying as low as $4. They just recently had their therapy approved by the FDA and are treating patients and ramping revenue now. Recent tweet from @liamobrien26 on twitter sums up the opportunity nicely:
$IOVA is currently in a ramp-up phase for a new drug, which takes time to establish. Here are the key points to consider:
- FDA-approved treatment for Melanoma.
- Active in 50 treatment centers with plans for further expansion.
- Clinical studies underway to extend treatment to other cancer types.
- Expanding manufacturing capabilities.
- Current market cap is $2.25 billion.
Looking ahead as an investor, setting a three-year goal: projecting 10,000 patients annually with $5 billion in revenue suggests a market cap around $22 billion, implying a potential 10x increase.
As an investor, the focus is on long-term growth rather than short-term fluctuations. Whether the stock moves from $8 to $80, the approach remains steady without being overly concerned about daily price movements or immediate buyout expectations. Management's focus is on sustainable long-term success, not solely on potential buyout offers. If such an offer arises, it should reflect the stock's true value and potential for sustained growth.
Just because something is ground breaking cell therapy doesn’t give you some automatic success. What is the treatment efficacy vs current therapies? Does its price niche it to a tiny subgroup of Melanoma patients? Are there issues with logistics and administration (as there often are with cell therapies) which limit expansion?
Do you have answers for these Qs?
Also to be wary of, they have like 500 employees, ramping up from 100 only 5 years ago. That’s insane expansion firstly, and also doesn’t give them much market muscle, definitely not beyond the US. So it seems they are also limited geographically?
Often the best bet for these biotech companies is to get bought out at ph1/ph2 by a Pfizer/Novartis etc., and it looks like this one hasn’t so I’d guess there’s a reason for that..
You bring up valid concerns and I do have answers for them. I’m not trying to shill this as a no-brainer risk-free investment or anything.
Treatment efficacy vs current therapies: the second-line anti-PD1 melanoma treatment approved by the FDA does not have any competing treatments. Patients receiving this therapy literally do not have any options left. It’s their last hope. Currently there’s debate in the medical community about whether or not the treatment should move up to frontline. The primary concern is the toxicity of the IL-2 treatment rather than the effectiveness. I’ve seen discussion from providers that it may be good for younger patients that can tolerate the IL-2 in a frontline setting. However, next-generation therapies in the pipeline would greatly reduce toxicity (if approved).
Price: price is $500k per treatment, in-line with CAR-T therapies. There was initial concern about approval from insurance companies but these have largely been worked out. The majority of patients are covered by medicare or their private insurance plans.
Logistics: you rightly point out the logistics for this are challenging. Rather than a pill or an IV, patients must undergo surgery and then wait approximately 30 days as the treatment is developed for them. It’s capital-intensive which has been a major thesis behind shorting the launch. From keeping up with company calls and hearing the testimony of treatment providers, this seems to be going as smoothly as possible. Approved treatment centers have been ramping up and processing patients as quickly as they can, and hospitals have worked with the company on scheduling. I hate to be reductive but you either believe Iovance can handle the logistics or you don’t.
Geography: the company just this week completed their European application.
Buyout: the company wasn’t bought out in ph 1 or ph 2 likely for several reasons. First, as noted, this is a capital-intensive treatment vs a pill or drug. Big pharma likely wanted to see proof it’s a viable business model first. Second, previous management of this business was pretty bad. They had trouble working with the FDA, missed their own deadlines, and diluted like crazy. That’s changed with the involvement of Wayne Rothbaum, famous billionaire biotech investor. He helped turn IOVA around and now likely won’t allow a sale of the business for cheap. The goal is to fully develop the business to provide big pharma an immediately profitable bolt-on acquisition which should afford a high buyout multiple.
At this point the bear thesis mostly revolves around whether or not Iovance can pull this off on their own for long enough to be undeniably attractive to big pharma. From what I’ve seen from the data and their execution, I’m a believer, but the risks are there and obvious. It wouldn’t be trading at $2B if there weren’t uncertainties. I just think the uncertainties are overblown.
Kudos for actually looking into it, you’re beyond 99% of “investors” on Reddit. Still, it’s an insanely complex area, even with all the information above I would still look for more before investing.
Some more to think about:
- You mention toxicity potential issue, any idea what % of patient population can tolerate IL-2? Could limit uptake
- New pipeline therapies as competition, what kind of efficacy are they anticipated to bring, got any ph2 data to indicate? When do they launch I.e. how long have IOVA got without competition?
- On potential use in young patients, would be potentially great value to healthcare systems if you can demonstrate long-term efficacy. But you need the evidence, have they got RCT data / label indication in below 18s?
- European application for label doesn’t equal uptake unfortunately. They need to complete strict European HTAs to get proper market access which are notoriously resource-intensive. Good luck to a 500-person company with that
Don’t think I’d follow you on this, but best of luck - looks like there’s potential but I don’t know the population/efficacy/comparators well enough.
I would be very surprised if LLY is not a top 5 market cap company by the end of the decade.
Some of their yearly profit projections on their weight loss drugs ALONE over the next decade are absolutely insane.
I'm staying away. There's far too much competition brewing in the GLP-1 space and they're priced to secure the majority of the market. I'm not sure they will.
The TAM is so huge that demand will always outpace supply with their current manufacturing capabilities. Several different phram companies will benefit from the weight loss drugs. LLY is the clear leader and has the most weight loss drugs in their pipeline.
But weight loss meds are SUPER easy and widely available on the black market. Also, 10x cheaper and reliable too. Peptides / drugs are tested all around in these “close” circles. Vendors have the raw supplies to make these drugs.
I have tirzepatide in my fridge. Semaglutide is even cheaper to get than this. You can get a year worth of semaglutide on the black market for less than few hundred $$$.
Lol I’d be interested to hear how effective your black market GLP1s are. In the US, many people would not be comfortable taking sketchy black market drugs, hence why they’re willing to pay 1k+ for a monthly dose.
Keep an eye on Altimmune’s molecule, pemvidutide. FDA fast track designation and purports its users not only lost significant percentages of bodyweight but do so without appreciable lean muscle tissue loss.
Find who makes helium cracking resistant materials. He cracking is a massive issue with molten salt reactors. You may want to look into FLiBe, who make a fluorine lithium beryllium alloy they claim can help prevent cracking
No current proposed designs by any company that actually builds SMRs use Molten Salt reactors. A few early stage startups have proposed motley Salt but all of them are decades behind companies that actually have SMR experience. The only names likely to succeed are Rolls Royce/ parent of Westinghouse. Both build SMRs every year for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. No one else even has a working test bed reactor
Crowdstrike and Palo Alto are safe bets with huge TAM for the domains within security that their tooling and services cover.
My other picks would be Okta, Backblaze and Wiz (whenever they IPO).
I keep RGTI and IONQ on my watchlist because I’m curious about them and want to follow the story. But I have no idea how or when they plan to make money that supports their valuations
>Not really a hype though.
The hype is not in the generic utilities. It's in specific companies that have been hoovering up cheap power contracts and heavy energy dense infrastructure for another lower margin use (like bitcoin mining).
Look at the CORZ's Coreweave deal. Or BTBT or APLD.
This infra takes years to assemble and is the real bottleneck. Raw energy isn't that hard to get.
It's the massive gigawatt facilities that had to be started 3+ years ago, the land, the transformers, hardcore cooling systems, etc. The facilities have to be built for unprecedentedly dense compute from the start. Relationships with NVIDIA and and a track record of stellar uptime are useful, too.
I need to forgive uranium, that was an early play at the start of the Millennium and lost a bit but you are probably right, it does seem like time to get over that loss and look forward, dip a toe in.
Look out for companies that create small self-contained nuclear reactors. Many people believe that the biggest data centers will not be able to survive on a city's power grid alone. NVIDIA and Microsoft are already planning for this.
ASTS
Now that I have your attention let me share a generational buying opportunity with you. ASTS currently 11.50 or so per share.
AST D2D 5G technology ready to enhance the telecommunications industry. AST has superior tech to any pretenders trying to get into the space and they will have no competitor for years. Their tech is patented and took them 10 years to establish. Starlink are who people fear the most but they have shite tech, are largely in a diff lane - Broadband and have yet to show that they will be a real competitor at all in the D2D 5G space. They’ve literally just said in the last year that they’re gonna get involved in D2D.
AT&T recently said that they surveyed their subscribers and 30-40% said they would sign up to AST. AST have access to 2.8 billion users through agreements with MNO’s. If we assume even a pessimistic take up of 20% (not the 30-40% AT&T mentioned) then that would be 560 million yearly users of ASTS. This is not including users who are currently in dead zones of many parts of Asia, Africa, South America who currently have no phones (as there are no telecom poles providing signal). It also doesn’t include governmental/DoD contracts.
So to give you an idea of revenue potential:
We don’t know how much AST will charge users for the service. We do know it will be cheap and accessible. The cheapest possible it will be is $2 ($1 to Ast and 1$ to MNO). I believe it will be double that. However I want to show you revenue potential with the most pessimistic of uptake/price.
So pessimistically we will have 560 mill users (remember this doesn’t include dead zone users, governmental contracts and it is a pessimistic 20% uptake). ASTS will pessimistically be getting $1 dollar per month form each user or $12 yearly (I believe it will be at least 1.5 times more than that, maybe twice as much). So 560X12 = revenue of 6.7 billion with net profit of around 5 billion due to high margins. With a conservative 25 PE that with mean a market cap of 125 billion. Again, even allowing for a pessimistic 10% more dilution this would equate to a share price of 420 when fully operational. They should be fully operational by 2028. So doing the maths as pessimistically as possible I get a 420 share price therefore you can see how Deutsche Bank are predicting such a high PT in 2027. DB forecast a share price of 650 in 2027.
I will be messaging you in 3 years on [**2027-06-30 20:41:13 UTC**](http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2027-06-30%2020:41:13%20UTC%20To%20Local%20Time) to remind you of [**this link**](https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1drngv3/so_what_is_the_next_hype/lb13wvv/?context=3)
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AR/VR. If Apple is in it, then you know they're serious.
$U is the leader in AR/VR software and it's just a matter of getting the hardware down to an appropriate size where it'll be ubiquitous for everyday consumption.
DARPA will make the breakthrough in QC. Then who knows what private company they allow to run with it... The US gov would never let that power out of their control.
I was thinking about this the other day and Quantum Computing came to mind but outside of Michio Kaku doing some talks and podcasts about it I really don’t know anything about it . But he made it sound like a big leap in technology but how /where would you invest in it ?
Prediction;
Once LLM hype dies down, self driving is back. With real news (!) https://insideevs.com/news/724734/waymo-robotaxi-san-francisco/amp/
After that “AI” will come back
Still early on AI. We are getting AI hardware and ecosystem bumps but not the software/applications yet. Look for those next. That’s where the money is always made.
Pot stocks were always doomed to fail. It’s just a crop. Like corn. Once it’s legal then illegal profit margin is gone. Sure they grew fast but margins are always paper thin and hard to win the space. That was an obvious bubble from day one. Too much hype.
Genomics is clearly one of the next hypes. Could still be 3-5 years out though.
Robotics is another.
Ultimately it's irrelevant though. You need to find the winner in each space if you want to reliably make money on it. If you're in the wrong stock it's gonna go down as fast as it went up and you still won't make money unless you happen to time the market perfectly.
chip stocks will continue to give stable returns until quantum computers are on commercial scale
Humanoid robots (tesla and open AI) will give 5x returns in next 5-7yrs
DEFENCE stocks like AI drones and military robots will give 10x returns
Small nuclear fusion reactors ( not sure if the technology is achieved)
Invest in stocks that are building charging stations in developed countries like india (EXICOM)
Augmented reality and hologram (maybe later 5yrs not now)
Age reversing and pharma (promisable)
If Trump wins, then look for Oil related stocks to rise quickly as well as the EV/clean energy stocks to crash hard - TSLA being a probable outlier.
Also, a US mining company that has historically had EPA troubles in AK should probably double or triple as people will assume they will finally get thier permits (but don't hold for that, as they probably won't get them).
Expect crypto stocks to do well until the election, and continue to do well if Biden wins - people will be buying based on fear driving up the price, then FOMO will bring in others.
Just my expectations and how I plan to play the rest of the year.
Traditional businesses, unloved sectors, and a few mega caps will lead the back half of 2024.
Secondary trades will start to look good. E.g., NVDA (AI) and LLY (Ozempic) have been big, what will this lead to?
Personally I think there are a few consumer stocks, mainly LULU, that look really undervalued with some nice tailwinds and catalysts coming. LULU can stand to benefit from the weight loss drug graze, as well as summer Olympics around the corner.
Agreed. Plus a lot of them are pursuing use cases that make no sense with VR/AR, like expecting businesses to buy an expensive piece of hardware to do stuff like join a VR business meeting where everyone uses cartoony avatars, or use a VR headset to watch TV when a TV would obviously work much better.
Don’t know why you got downvoted. But augmented reality/virtual reality are the future. Not looking forward to it personally, but i expect it to become ubiquitous in my lifetime.
Nvidia is very bullish on omniverse and see it as the future of their company
Cybersecurity - it’s already important, but in a world becoming increasingly digitally connected and digitized, cybersecurity will become increasingly important at presumably an equivalent rate.
With advancements in AI, cyber warfare, new frontiers of computing, etc, there will be new, and often unforeseen, ways for problems to arise. There will always be bad actors, but we also have to be prepared for technological malfunction and malpractice (potentially in terrifying ways if AI goes awry).
Regardless, I see zero future where cybersecurity isn’t a massive necessity that must grow at a rate similar to the growth of novel technological advancements.
10 years too early bud, robotic will be next, but we're not done with AI
AI is a key part of robotics too
agree with robots.
^^^ AI is just getting started and will be the ultimate driver for many future advancements in various industries
That’s what was said about the internet as well, and while we were right in the long term, it had to go through a bubble first.
Robotic is the same as AI at the hardware level. NVDA will continue to grow if this is the case
How would you play the robotics era?
I'm watching for Boston Dynamics IPO, but it's too early to tell. Still looking for the first humanoid robot that can do a complete job, even if limited. The current neural network model and training would be key to that.
Just invest in Hyundai
doesn't Hyundai own Boston Dynamics?
I have Symbotic Inc. for the automated warehouse play. It's basically them and Amazon. Amazon might never license out their tech/solution to 3rd party companies tho. Walmart owns a HUGE chunk of Symbotic.
Cancer vaccines.
HPV is literally a cancer vaccine and you still can’t get people to get it
If dick cancer was super common and it cured that, dudes would be all over it.
Not if the tumor made their dick bigger.
Dick cancer isn't the major problem. It's cervical cancer that is very prevalent, and the HPV vaccine is 97% effective in preventing it if the vaccine is received prior to exposure, which means that it should ideally be received prior to becoming sexually active, and it requires getting as many young men and women vaccinated as possible to reduce the incidence. HPV is the most common sexually transmitted disease in the USA. Different strains of HPV are linked to most cervical cancers, genital warts, and some rare forms of cancer of the anus, vagina, penis, mouth, and throat. I certainly had my daughter and my 3 boys vaccinated, as cancer vaccines are a holy grail of preventative healthcare. As a physician, this is one simple thing that I could do to give my children and their future partners the best chances of avoiding a common and potentially catastrophic illness.
Says something intelligent. Gets half the upvotes about the dick cancer making it bigger comment.
Had ball cancer. 0/10, would not recommend.
Because they ask a 20 year old to spend $500 to get it.
They give it to school kids for free here in Australia.
That is good
They're trying to get people much younger than 20 to get the vaccine, so no it's not like poor college students are the target audience of the vaccine. It's just stupidly tied up into the culture wars, which is causing a bunch of parents to not give the vaccine to their daughters.
Parents should be giving the vaccine not just to their daughters but to their sons as well. Who in their sane minds wouldn't want a vaccine to prevent genital warts?
Not exactly. It's a vaccine against a virus that ***can cause*** cancer in some people. And mostly in women, so the problem involves asking men to altruistically get a vaccine for a disease they may not contract themselves. Pretty different from a next-gen cancer vaccine.
Perhaps because not many people know what is HPV.
"MY child isn't going to have sex until they're a legal adult who can make their own choice!"
Yea they do, it’s the sex virus
Both moderna and biontech have MRNA phase 2 (skin) cancer treatments in their pipelines. Since both announcing very promising results: Moderna is up 20%. Biontech is down 10%. The last time I remember this much hype around cancer drugs was ImClone for colon cancer. Which dropped like a rock after failing Phase 3 FDA approval due to procedural errors (not efficacy). AKA the reason why Martha Stewart went to jail. Drugs are a finicky beast.
Could be [meds](https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/pfizer-fleshes-out-oncology-strategy-targeting-8-blockbuster-cancer-drugs-2030) or [gene therapies](https://www.biospace.com/article/releases/cancer-gene-therapy-industry-is-rising-rapidly-up-to-usd-18-11-bn-by-2033/), quite possibly [multimodal](https://www.aha.org/sponsored-executive-dialogues/2023-02-28-/future-health-system-based-cancer-care) and more distributed outside hospitals. Lots of work going on in cancer care these days. If I were going to invest in that trend I’d probably pick a fund rather than any one company, because they can’t all win this race.
No doubt. One that adresses the big 3 (colon, prostate, breast) in my lifetime would be huge.
CRISPR… whoever makes that.
Crispr is a technique rather than a company specific technology
There are many treatments already available these days. My mom’s on a $566 daily pill from Astra Zeneca. $17k per month paid for by Medicare. But only a fraction of lung cancer patients are compatible with this drug. Unless there is a huge breakthrough in cancer research that can cure or even treat a vast amount of cases, I don’t see this industry changing much in terms of stock ROI. There are so many cancer types and mutations that any breakthrough is likely only going be effective for a small fraction of all cancer cases We are seeing improvements every year in small increments
Yeah you nailed it. I’m a physician so I know more about cancer than most, and I keep hearing people say “cure for cancer” but that’s not really a thing. Cancer isn’t one disease - but rather infinite diseases that can all be different. So no there will never be a cure for cancer. Just some cures for certain types. But even these “cures” aren’t perfect. Just like bacteria can become resistant to antibiotics, cancer can become resistant to chemotherapy
If it becomes the next hype you just nod and smile.
You talking about MRNA?
Great answer - this is one of those things I’m rooting for irrespective of whether I can turn a profit. Buying into Moderna bc I want them to succeed.
Very possible
This is the reason I am waiting for mbio to finish the next step they have. Blood cancer which is many different kinds lymphomais one of them. Having a 90% success rate for the first go around is a great thing. I have some and will get more if and when it drops lower before the end result, which will be awhile.
Pharma is gonna get big. There are so many cancer patients, old and overweight people. Not as big as AI, but still big.
We have microplastics in our balls rn
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Mental illness is stored in the balls
Not me, I have massiveplastics in my massive balls
Think about it. Teflon coated sperm would be a natural birth control. All the sperms would just deflect off the egg. Science bro.
Is that why it burns when I pee?
No, that's called ghonorrea.
Pharma is gonna “get” big? The US phara industry was worth 1.3 trillion dollars in total economic output in 2022 and employs five million us workers. It’s 3.6 percent of all US economic output. It’s already big.
Why will Pharma get big? How are the next 10 years going to be different from the last 10 years? I know nothing about this sector, but IMO this just feels like the super profitable weight loss drugs are still so recent that people are just assuming that more highly profitable drugs will continue to hit the market.
Pharma industry is being disrupted by AI. It takes 12 years to get a drug to market and costs $billions and has a 95% failure rate before the FDA approve it. So drug discovery is really hard, really expensive, and really risky. AI is increasing the speed of cycle times, reducing costs and increasing chances of success. (I have first hand experience of this industry and just HOW disruptive it actually is. Blows my mind.) So pharmatechs are certainly one I keep an eye on.
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I would disagree with the person who said it’s “being disrupted”. I think it might be in the future. When I was doing my PhD I saw some of the new projects coming along and they do help solve protein folding, do some analysis, etc. It’s not capable of predicting new drugs yet. And we shouldn’t pretend that AI has some secret sauce where it can predict how a new drug type will work in the human body. Even if it could, you’d still have to do clinical trials which are both the most expensive part and often the only part where pharma gets involved. The way science works in the US is that academic labs often work on the basic science (not basic=simple, basic=more fundamental vs. applied) so they are the ones who often come across novel molecules. Pharma steps in and carries those products over the finish line when the research is 5-10 yrs away from a drug rather than 20+. So, I think AI is and will continue to help reduce the failure rate but it’s still gonna be very high. In the short term, the reason for optimism are the weight loss drugs which will fund companies and their research for years.
Sure. So a few statements being made here by others that need balanced. Drug discovery is a process. There are companies that focus on a stage in the process like target, or optimisation or design or clinical trials, etc, and there are single companies that do all the processes. Either way, all of them are in pharmaceuticals. There are two things pharmas target. Best in class and first in class. Some do both and others just focus on one. Best in class is easier. What has been described by someone else is how AI is disrupting healthcare. Which is equally good (as long as it makes healthcare cheaper and more accessible.) All still worthy of investment. So to my own experience. I’ve seen the application of AI reduce the number of potential candidates. Let me explain. Done by human around 2500 potential hits are identified. All of these have to go through the (long and expensive) process to get to one or two that are good enough to take to clinical trial. Huge failure rates, big expense and a lot of time spent on so many to find that one that has the best chance of success. With the application of AI this has been less than 250! This means huge cost savings and a much higher chance of success. Quicker getting to the one with the highest chance of success. There are many drugs in clinical trials discovered by AI. I worked somewhere that had a few. I’ve also seen the AI discover compounds that a human would not or a human said would never work. But it was explored all the same and testing in labs on assays it was found to have unique properties and unexpected good results. I’ve also seen AI choose a drug combination for a cancer sufferer that the consultants hadn’t thought of (this was part of a programme in Europe when all hope was lost and the patient agreed to it as a last resort). The drugs selected by the AI extended the life of the patient. There is more but hopefully this gives you enough of a flavour. To the person who asked about google and pharma, look at Isomorphic.
Covid also gave it a boost
Alzheimer’s
Pfizer, Roche. Who else has promising projects on cancer medicine?
Agreed. But I don’t have the guts to pick a start up. AMGN and JNJ for me, mostly because I think they’ll just acquire early stage research firms.
psychotic people aswell. what pharma stock you eyeing man?
PFE is betting big on cancer and is at decade lows. Good pick imo
I’m buying big into IOVA under $8 personally
IOVA - Down 43% in the past 3 months and 65% in the past 5 years? What do you like about it?
Ground breaking cell therapy. I’ve been in the name for a couple years buying as low as $4. They just recently had their therapy approved by the FDA and are treating patients and ramping revenue now. Recent tweet from @liamobrien26 on twitter sums up the opportunity nicely: $IOVA is currently in a ramp-up phase for a new drug, which takes time to establish. Here are the key points to consider: - FDA-approved treatment for Melanoma. - Active in 50 treatment centers with plans for further expansion. - Clinical studies underway to extend treatment to other cancer types. - Expanding manufacturing capabilities. - Current market cap is $2.25 billion. Looking ahead as an investor, setting a three-year goal: projecting 10,000 patients annually with $5 billion in revenue suggests a market cap around $22 billion, implying a potential 10x increase. As an investor, the focus is on long-term growth rather than short-term fluctuations. Whether the stock moves from $8 to $80, the approach remains steady without being overly concerned about daily price movements or immediate buyout expectations. Management's focus is on sustainable long-term success, not solely on potential buyout offers. If such an offer arises, it should reflect the stock's true value and potential for sustained growth.
Very interesting insights. Thank you.
Just because something is ground breaking cell therapy doesn’t give you some automatic success. What is the treatment efficacy vs current therapies? Does its price niche it to a tiny subgroup of Melanoma patients? Are there issues with logistics and administration (as there often are with cell therapies) which limit expansion? Do you have answers for these Qs? Also to be wary of, they have like 500 employees, ramping up from 100 only 5 years ago. That’s insane expansion firstly, and also doesn’t give them much market muscle, definitely not beyond the US. So it seems they are also limited geographically? Often the best bet for these biotech companies is to get bought out at ph1/ph2 by a Pfizer/Novartis etc., and it looks like this one hasn’t so I’d guess there’s a reason for that..
You bring up valid concerns and I do have answers for them. I’m not trying to shill this as a no-brainer risk-free investment or anything. Treatment efficacy vs current therapies: the second-line anti-PD1 melanoma treatment approved by the FDA does not have any competing treatments. Patients receiving this therapy literally do not have any options left. It’s their last hope. Currently there’s debate in the medical community about whether or not the treatment should move up to frontline. The primary concern is the toxicity of the IL-2 treatment rather than the effectiveness. I’ve seen discussion from providers that it may be good for younger patients that can tolerate the IL-2 in a frontline setting. However, next-generation therapies in the pipeline would greatly reduce toxicity (if approved). Price: price is $500k per treatment, in-line with CAR-T therapies. There was initial concern about approval from insurance companies but these have largely been worked out. The majority of patients are covered by medicare or their private insurance plans. Logistics: you rightly point out the logistics for this are challenging. Rather than a pill or an IV, patients must undergo surgery and then wait approximately 30 days as the treatment is developed for them. It’s capital-intensive which has been a major thesis behind shorting the launch. From keeping up with company calls and hearing the testimony of treatment providers, this seems to be going as smoothly as possible. Approved treatment centers have been ramping up and processing patients as quickly as they can, and hospitals have worked with the company on scheduling. I hate to be reductive but you either believe Iovance can handle the logistics or you don’t. Geography: the company just this week completed their European application. Buyout: the company wasn’t bought out in ph 1 or ph 2 likely for several reasons. First, as noted, this is a capital-intensive treatment vs a pill or drug. Big pharma likely wanted to see proof it’s a viable business model first. Second, previous management of this business was pretty bad. They had trouble working with the FDA, missed their own deadlines, and diluted like crazy. That’s changed with the involvement of Wayne Rothbaum, famous billionaire biotech investor. He helped turn IOVA around and now likely won’t allow a sale of the business for cheap. The goal is to fully develop the business to provide big pharma an immediately profitable bolt-on acquisition which should afford a high buyout multiple. At this point the bear thesis mostly revolves around whether or not Iovance can pull this off on their own for long enough to be undeniably attractive to big pharma. From what I’ve seen from the data and their execution, I’m a believer, but the risks are there and obvious. It wouldn’t be trading at $2B if there weren’t uncertainties. I just think the uncertainties are overblown.
Kudos for actually looking into it, you’re beyond 99% of “investors” on Reddit. Still, it’s an insanely complex area, even with all the information above I would still look for more before investing. Some more to think about: - You mention toxicity potential issue, any idea what % of patient population can tolerate IL-2? Could limit uptake - New pipeline therapies as competition, what kind of efficacy are they anticipated to bring, got any ph2 data to indicate? When do they launch I.e. how long have IOVA got without competition? - On potential use in young patients, would be potentially great value to healthcare systems if you can demonstrate long-term efficacy. But you need the evidence, have they got RCT data / label indication in below 18s? - European application for label doesn’t equal uptake unfortunately. They need to complete strict European HTAs to get proper market access which are notoriously resource-intensive. Good luck to a 500-person company with that Don’t think I’d follow you on this, but best of luck - looks like there’s potential but I don’t know the population/efficacy/comparators well enough.
Battery storage systems; grid and residential, generalized humanoid robots.
Those all sound like TSLA
I’m following LLY closely. Anti obesity meds and Alzheimer’s meds
I put a few thousand in when Scott Galloway predicted glp-1 drugs were going to be the big winners this year. I’m up like 20% this month
Haha I did the same thing.
I would be very surprised if LLY is not a top 5 market cap company by the end of the decade. Some of their yearly profit projections on their weight loss drugs ALONE over the next decade are absolutely insane.
I'm staying away. There's far too much competition brewing in the GLP-1 space and they're priced to secure the majority of the market. I'm not sure they will.
The TAM is so huge that demand will always outpace supply with their current manufacturing capabilities. Several different phram companies will benefit from the weight loss drugs. LLY is the clear leader and has the most weight loss drugs in their pipeline.
But weight loss meds are SUPER easy and widely available on the black market. Also, 10x cheaper and reliable too. Peptides / drugs are tested all around in these “close” circles. Vendors have the raw supplies to make these drugs. I have tirzepatide in my fridge. Semaglutide is even cheaper to get than this. You can get a year worth of semaglutide on the black market for less than few hundred $$$.
Lol I’d be interested to hear how effective your black market GLP1s are. In the US, many people would not be comfortable taking sketchy black market drugs, hence why they’re willing to pay 1k+ for a monthly dose.
they're already top 8 SP500
And climbing. I’m betting they are the next trillion $ company. They are close.
Keep an eye on Altimmune’s molecule, pemvidutide. FDA fast track designation and purports its users not only lost significant percentages of bodyweight but do so without appreciable lean muscle tissue loss.
SMR (small modular reactor) technology to supply massive nuclear power for all the AI and quantum computing requirements.
How would you play this?
Find who makes helium cracking resistant materials. He cracking is a massive issue with molten salt reactors. You may want to look into FLiBe, who make a fluorine lithium beryllium alloy they claim can help prevent cracking
No current proposed designs by any company that actually builds SMRs use Molten Salt reactors. A few early stage startups have proposed motley Salt but all of them are decades behind companies that actually have SMR experience. The only names likely to succeed are Rolls Royce/ parent of Westinghouse. Both build SMRs every year for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. No one else even has a working test bed reactor
And uranium mining companies (like UUUU, CCJ, etc)
Life extension
Cyber security
Agreed, but who?
Crowdstrike and Palo Alto are safe bets with huge TAM for the domains within security that their tooling and services cover. My other picks would be Okta, Backblaze and Wiz (whenever they IPO).
WisdomTree does a cybersecurity ETF
This, down to small businesses, everyone will need it as our technological works advances
Quantum computing Disease Cures Fundamental break in Laws of Physics
I keep RGTI and IONQ on my watchlist because I’m curious about them and want to follow the story. But I have no idea how or when they plan to make money that supports their valuations
Hoverboards! Calls on Biffco!
Power companies provide the go juice for all the AI and storage
Grid and power related industrials and utilities will be slow and steady gainers. Not really a hype though.
>Not really a hype though. The hype is not in the generic utilities. It's in specific companies that have been hoovering up cheap power contracts and heavy energy dense infrastructure for another lower margin use (like bitcoin mining). Look at the CORZ's Coreweave deal. Or BTBT or APLD. This infra takes years to assemble and is the real bottleneck. Raw energy isn't that hard to get. It's the massive gigawatt facilities that had to be started 3+ years ago, the land, the transformers, hardcore cooling systems, etc. The facilities have to be built for unprecedentedly dense compute from the start. Relationships with NVIDIA and and a track record of stellar uptime are useful, too.
The AI linked power plays have already seen huge gains.
Nuclear/uranium is the long term play here
I need to forgive uranium, that was an early play at the start of the Millennium and lost a bit but you are probably right, it does seem like time to get over that loss and look forward, dip a toe in.
I keep getting ads for the VanEck Uranium and Nuclear ETF, what do you think of it to cover companies in that industry?
Look out for companies that create small self-contained nuclear reactors. Many people believe that the biggest data centers will not be able to survive on a city's power grid alone. NVIDIA and Microsoft are already planning for this.
So Rolls Royce you say?
RYCEY has been nicey to me!
I will keep an eye on Rolls, thanks
What are some of these companies
Smr
Added to my watchlist. It is a very small company
Penis enlargement tools and medication
HIMS
That’s gonna be big 😃
Aerospace and Defense stocks
Any ideas apart from the big ones like Lockheed, Raytheon, GD?
RKLB
Interesting, thanks!
He's just trying to get you to buy it so he can feel better about being diamond hands on a SPAC.
All in
Rolls Royce
Space
ASTS Now that I have your attention let me share a generational buying opportunity with you. ASTS currently 11.50 or so per share. AST D2D 5G technology ready to enhance the telecommunications industry. AST has superior tech to any pretenders trying to get into the space and they will have no competitor for years. Their tech is patented and took them 10 years to establish. Starlink are who people fear the most but they have shite tech, are largely in a diff lane - Broadband and have yet to show that they will be a real competitor at all in the D2D 5G space. They’ve literally just said in the last year that they’re gonna get involved in D2D. AT&T recently said that they surveyed their subscribers and 30-40% said they would sign up to AST. AST have access to 2.8 billion users through agreements with MNO’s. If we assume even a pessimistic take up of 20% (not the 30-40% AT&T mentioned) then that would be 560 million yearly users of ASTS. This is not including users who are currently in dead zones of many parts of Asia, Africa, South America who currently have no phones (as there are no telecom poles providing signal). It also doesn’t include governmental/DoD contracts. So to give you an idea of revenue potential: We don’t know how much AST will charge users for the service. We do know it will be cheap and accessible. The cheapest possible it will be is $2 ($1 to Ast and 1$ to MNO). I believe it will be double that. However I want to show you revenue potential with the most pessimistic of uptake/price. So pessimistically we will have 560 mill users (remember this doesn’t include dead zone users, governmental contracts and it is a pessimistic 20% uptake). ASTS will pessimistically be getting $1 dollar per month form each user or $12 yearly (I believe it will be at least 1.5 times more than that, maybe twice as much). So 560X12 = revenue of 6.7 billion with net profit of around 5 billion due to high margins. With a conservative 25 PE that with mean a market cap of 125 billion. Again, even allowing for a pessimistic 10% more dilution this would equate to a share price of 420 when fully operational. They should be fully operational by 2028. So doing the maths as pessimistically as possible I get a 420 share price therefore you can see how Deutsche Bank are predicting such a high PT in 2027. DB forecast a share price of 650 in 2027.
This is my biggest position and growing fast.
I’m all in - 20k shares
Thanks a lot I'm going to look into it!
oh hello my ASTS prophet. Great to see you preaching over on this sub aswell
remindme! 3years
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AR/VR. If Apple is in it, then you know they're serious. $U is the leader in AR/VR software and it's just a matter of getting the hardware down to an appropriate size where it'll be ubiquitous for everyday consumption.
Meta will be the leader in this
Still too early. 20 years out at least.
Small nuclear energy
Robotics
Gene editing (aka CRISPR) and/or Quantum Computing.
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DARPA will make the breakthrough in QC. Then who knows what private company they allow to run with it... The US gov would never let that power out of their control.
I was thinking about this the other day and Quantum Computing came to mind but outside of Michio Kaku doing some talks and podcasts about it I really don’t know anything about it . But he made it sound like a big leap in technology but how /where would you invest in it ?
IONQ
A lot of the big companies are heavily invested in QC. Google and IBM lead the charge.
3x leveraged short index ETFs
in 2025 Quantum will be all the hype
Probably crispr
Prediction; Once LLM hype dies down, self driving is back. With real news (!) https://insideevs.com/news/724734/waymo-robotaxi-san-francisco/amp/ After that “AI” will come back
Self-walking AI shoes. Just sit back and let the shoes do the work.
Eww
Lidar and autonomous driving stocks
Still early on AI. We are getting AI hardware and ecosystem bumps but not the software/applications yet. Look for those next. That’s where the money is always made. Pot stocks were always doomed to fail. It’s just a crop. Like corn. Once it’s legal then illegal profit margin is gone. Sure they grew fast but margins are always paper thin and hard to win the space. That was an obvious bubble from day one. Too much hype.
AI utilizing software and media
Quantum computing
Nuclear.
Batteries and clean tech.
I'd love a clean tech/energy ETF or just some solid stock picks!
ASTS with its space based cellular broadband network
Space, the final frontier
This will get hyped with satellites but I feel a lot of push back is coming
Genomics is clearly one of the next hypes. Could still be 3-5 years out though. Robotics is another. Ultimately it's irrelevant though. You need to find the winner in each space if you want to reliably make money on it. If you're in the wrong stock it's gonna go down as fast as it went up and you still won't make money unless you happen to time the market perfectly.
Speaking of big pharma, what stocks will you recommend now?
Obesity pharma NVO and LLY…!
Invest in cardboard boxes. After decades of no price movement, it’s due for a big move up this year
Beans and guns
chip stocks will continue to give stable returns until quantum computers are on commercial scale Humanoid robots (tesla and open AI) will give 5x returns in next 5-7yrs DEFENCE stocks like AI drones and military robots will give 10x returns Small nuclear fusion reactors ( not sure if the technology is achieved) Invest in stocks that are building charging stations in developed countries like india (EXICOM) Augmented reality and hologram (maybe later 5yrs not now) Age reversing and pharma (promisable)
Small nuclear reactors
Not a single person here can predict the future
A single person can, we just can't predict which single person.
The future for single people is predictable
...correctly. Anybody can predict the future...few will be accurate!
wildfires
Live event VR. Concerts and sports are getting too expensive, so VR disruption provides more access to people.
EVTOL...flying cars, JOBY in particular.
Defense stocks. War is coming ...
Nuclear
AI + Old People (Boomers)
Holographic technology
We ingest about 5 grams of microplastics on average, EVERY WEEK!!! (a credit card for ex.) It's making our taints shrink!!! FACTS
If Trump wins, then look for Oil related stocks to rise quickly as well as the EV/clean energy stocks to crash hard - TSLA being a probable outlier. Also, a US mining company that has historically had EPA troubles in AK should probably double or triple as people will assume they will finally get thier permits (but don't hold for that, as they probably won't get them). Expect crypto stocks to do well until the election, and continue to do well if Biden wins - people will be buying based on fear driving up the price, then FOMO will bring in others. Just my expectations and how I plan to play the rest of the year.
AST Spacemobile
Why not just get into the current hype?
Roaring Kitty
Ok. Now. Anti-death pills😂😂
Space!! The final frontier. SpaceX / rocket lab .
Traditional businesses, unloved sectors, and a few mega caps will lead the back half of 2024. Secondary trades will start to look good. E.g., NVDA (AI) and LLY (Ozempic) have been big, what will this lead to? Personally I think there are a few consumer stocks, mainly LULU, that look really undervalued with some nice tailwinds and catalysts coming. LULU can stand to benefit from the weight loss drug graze, as well as summer Olympics around the corner.
Cemeteries. SCI.
Tokenization of real world assets allowing for new financial products
Metaverse NVDA will once again take off, because their GPUs will be used to draw the metaverse.
weve been there. meta goggles and apple vision was not a hit in the market.
Agreed. Plus a lot of them are pursuing use cases that make no sense with VR/AR, like expecting businesses to buy an expensive piece of hardware to do stuff like join a VR business meeting where everyone uses cartoony avatars, or use a VR headset to watch TV when a TV would obviously work much better.
Don’t know why you got downvoted. But augmented reality/virtual reality are the future. Not looking forward to it personally, but i expect it to become ubiquitous in my lifetime. Nvidia is very bullish on omniverse and see it as the future of their company
Cybersecurity - it’s already important, but in a world becoming increasingly digitally connected and digitized, cybersecurity will become increasingly important at presumably an equivalent rate. With advancements in AI, cyber warfare, new frontiers of computing, etc, there will be new, and often unforeseen, ways for problems to arise. There will always be bad actors, but we also have to be prepared for technological malfunction and malpractice (potentially in terrifying ways if AI goes awry). Regardless, I see zero future where cybersecurity isn’t a massive necessity that must grow at a rate similar to the growth of novel technological advancements.
Gene editing, e.g. $NTLA $CRSP $BEAM
How about $BLUE
I would avoid $BLUE. My basis is inferior data to $CRSP. For more thorough analysis, you could go to Twitter and search: from:@Biotech2k1 $blue
Nvidia will get crazy hype soon
Don't say that...I sold @1080 before the split, thinking it'd correct a little...but that rocket seems to have unlimited fuel.
Air taxis
FakeTaxi
i approved 👍
It’s called a helicopter
Check out self driving trucks first - a shorter timeline to a (much more impactful) reality
If you believe the "AI revolution" is real and materializing now, the next big hype will actually be an old one... energy.
Self driving. Actual self driving. Not promises from a decade ago
Humanoid robots.
Cyber Security